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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the college football Week

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Speaker 1: five look Ahead, featuring none other than the God of

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Speaker 1: Thunder himself, Thor Nystrom. It is gonna be a good

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Speaker 1: day here. We are gonna be looking over the best

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Speaker 1: lines that you can possibly find for Week five of

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Speaker 1: the college football slate. We're gonna be looking at what

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Speaker 1: the lines are, what Thor thinks they should be, and

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Speaker 1: where he thinks they're gonna be moving before the week's end,

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Speaker 1: so you can know if you want to be that

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Speaker 1: in early or wait until closer to kickoff. Thor, how

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Speaker 1: are you doing today?

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Speaker 2: I'm doing great, Thomas. The Kansas Jayhawks are five and all.

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Speaker 2: You're Syracuse Oranger five and ah, It's another great day

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Speaker 2: to be a college football fan.

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Speaker 1: It is a fantastic day. Indeed, I am feeling good.

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Speaker 2: The Orange.

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Speaker 1: I have never seen this happen before, and it was

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Speaker 1: a bad beat for anyone who had a ticket on

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Speaker 1: the Orange on the spread because they did absolutely cover

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Speaker 1: the fifty three point spread they had.

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Speaker 2: But if you had a ticket.

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Speaker 1: You're out of luck because for the first time I've

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Speaker 1: ever seen they agree read to shorten the third and

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter by five minutes apiece. They played ten minute

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Speaker 1: quarters in the second half. I've never seen that before.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, crazy situation. You had a line that opened up

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Speaker 2: at Syracuse minus fifty. It closed at Syracuse minus fifty three.

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Speaker 2: Some books it got up to fifty four some of

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Speaker 2: the offshores, but it was somewhere between fifty and fifty four.

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Speaker 2: Anyone that bought a ticket on that game. Syracuse was

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Speaker 2: up forty nine to nothing at halftime. Anyone holding a

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Speaker 2: Syracuse ticket was feeling pretty good after two quarters, and

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Speaker 2: then Dino Babers agreed with the Wagner coaching staff to

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Speaker 2: shorten the third quarter in the fourth quarter to a

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Speaker 2: ten minute thing, which people out there, just to explain

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Speaker 2: to you some of how the sports book. Sports book works.

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Speaker 2: You don't have to complete a full sixty minute game

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Speaker 2: for a game to be graded, but you do have

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Speaker 2: to get over the fifty five minute threshold, and so

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Speaker 2: that game, it clocked in at fifty minutes, which nullified

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Speaker 2: all tickets purchase on that game. So, even though Syracuse

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Speaker 2: ended up winning fifty nine to nothing, covering all tickets

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Speaker 2: so it would have been purchased on them, nobody got

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Speaker 2: paid out for a Syracuse bet because the game did

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Speaker 2: not go over the books limit for what a game

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Speaker 2: needs to to get graded.

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Speaker 1: Yep, and them's can be the break sometimes that's what

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Speaker 1: it was here, But I personally don't care. I'm just

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Speaker 1: glad that we came away with yet another W not

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Speaker 1: that this one was really in much doubt. But thor Today,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna be going over some of the biggest games

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Speaker 1: of the week, as well as the games that you're

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Speaker 1: telling us have the biggest discrepancy between the line and

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Speaker 1: what you think.

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Speaker 2: It should be.

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Speaker 1: But let's start off with the biggest one of them all.

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Speaker 1: College Game Day is headed to Kansas as they take

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Speaker 1: on the TCU horn Frogs, who just absolutely swamped at

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Speaker 1: oh Oklahoma last week. I didn't necessarily not see that coming,

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Speaker 1: but I certainly it's still weird to see TCU dominate

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma like that. But this game, Kansas is gonna be

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Speaker 1: getting four and a half points. Where do you think

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Speaker 1: the line should be in this one?

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Speaker 2: I think it should be a little bit higher towards

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Speaker 2: the TCU side. And this, you know, I'm remiss to

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Speaker 2: say because I'm a Kansas grat, of course, but TCU

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Speaker 2: has like that was a team that I was higher

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Speaker 2: on over the summer than the marketplace, and they've hopped

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Speaker 2: over every marker that I've even set for them. Going

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Speaker 2: through the Oklahoma game this past weekend. That that game

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Speaker 2: was probably my biggest bet regret of the weekend because

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Speaker 2: I didn't bet it. My numbers were screaming at me

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Speaker 2: to bet on TCU, and they were on the final

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Speaker 2: cut of my my chopping block. And I talked to

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Speaker 2: some of my TCU sources and they were a little

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Speaker 2: bit more pessimistic about TCU covering that game. But it

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Speaker 2: speaks to some of these programs that have jumped way

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Speaker 2: up over the offseason. Kansas is a much more precipitous

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Speaker 2: example of this, but it's you almost I mean, not

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Speaker 2: only do you have to get ahead of the marketplace,

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Speaker 2: you have to get ahead of what your own head

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Speaker 2: is thinking. And even like that, the people that are

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Speaker 2: are more familiar with those programs because the historical president

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Speaker 2: of what we've seen in the recent history, it has

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Speaker 2: such an effect on the way that you perceive these teams.

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Speaker 2: When we have seen Kansas is clearly a better team

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Speaker 2: than anything close to what anyone's wildest dreams could have

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Speaker 2: expected to this point. It's almost the same way with TCU.

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Speaker 2: TCU is a I mean but on a higher end

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Speaker 2: of the of the spectrum. TCU is a legitimate Big

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Speaker 2: twelve championship contender. They absolutely are. And you know, and

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Speaker 2: I talked about this over the summer where last year's

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Speaker 2: team they had these two major weaknesses that caused the

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Speaker 2: entire Gary Patterson regime to come down to creater. It

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Speaker 2: was the passing offense. That rushing offense happened to be

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Speaker 2: really really good last year it is again, but it

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Speaker 2: was the passing offense brought the whole offense down and

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Speaker 2: then the defense overall, which was weird with a Patterson team.

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Speaker 2: This team, now moving to twenty twenty two, they brought

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Speaker 2: back all of this different experience on defense. They had

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Speaker 2: nine or ten starters back. On offense. They brought back

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Speaker 2: a bunch of guys too, and then they hired Sonny Dykes,

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Speaker 2: the air raid guru, who directly addressed the passing attack

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Speaker 2: thing this team. There is no dearth of talent on TCU.

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Speaker 2: Gary Patterson's last team that was getting its head pushed

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Speaker 2: in in some of these games. That was a talented

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Speaker 2: team as well. It's just that things win a scance

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Speaker 2: that again, the specific on field things that caused that

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Speaker 2: to happen, those things have been directly addressed. TCU has

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Speaker 2: jumped so far up. Kansas has of course as well,

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Speaker 2: but this is a great measuring stick for both teams.

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Speaker 2: My line on this game is TCU minus six point

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Speaker 2: four points. It opened I think at five or five

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Speaker 2: and a half, and then you've seen some early money

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Speaker 2: come in on Kansas, which is not necessarily surprised going

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Speaker 2: to the other side, because not only is Kansas five

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Speaker 2: and oh straight up, they were also five and oh

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Speaker 2: against the spread and they pulled off I believe three

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Speaker 2: outright upsets to this point. Believe they've they've been an

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Speaker 2: underdog in three of those games, so I can see

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Speaker 2: why the marketplace is starting to trust them. But don't

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Speaker 2: throw out the baby with the bathwater with regards to TCU,

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Speaker 2: because it's the same kind of a story. It's just

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Speaker 2: again at a higher level of that spectrum.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gonna be an interesting game, I think. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I'm excited to see it. I'm excited to see if

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Speaker 1: Kansas can keep it. All of these come on, wouldn't

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Speaker 1: that be a fun story?

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Speaker 2: Oh? Yeah, yeah, I have to tell you. You don't

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Speaker 2: have to tell me. I mean, like for me, Kansas

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Speaker 2: haven't if they would have gone four and eight. That

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Speaker 2: that's an interesting story to me because that that is

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Speaker 2: a jump up from every season that I watch every

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Speaker 2: stap at Kansas football. That's a step up from every

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Speaker 2: single season that I've seen. Now what is it now,

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Speaker 2: eleven years, twelve years? Like you know, I'm like Tom

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Speaker 2: Hanks and Castaway. I have been sequestered from quality football

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Speaker 2: from my alma mater for so long. I'm out there

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Speaker 2: talking to my volleyball and Peyton on a face, you know,

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Speaker 2: talking about the Mark man Gino days, and now all

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Speaker 2: of a sudden, manna from heaven. It's like we've been,

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Speaker 2: you know, rescued from the island. But where Kansas is now.

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Speaker 2: I talked about before the you know, beyond your wildest

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Speaker 2: expectations before Kansas already this season is way beyond the

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Speaker 2: wildest expectations of even the biggest Kansas homer. And there

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Speaker 2: doesn't get bigger Kansas football homers than me. I think

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Speaker 2: there was about twenty of us that watch every snap

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Speaker 2: over the last decade at Kansas football to get to

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Speaker 2: this point. So yeah, I mean, it's it tickles us

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Speaker 2: all pink, but I mean, beyond that, it is probably

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Speaker 2: the story of college football to this point of the season,

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Speaker 2: just because it was so wildly unpredictable. We have seen

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Speaker 2: some things that are unpredictable this season, Kansas starting out

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Speaker 2: with that record and winning some legitimate games. They've beaten

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Speaker 2: three Power five teams, they have beaten three ball teams

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Speaker 2: from last year. They have won two road games against

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Speaker 2: legitimate opponents, both them were ball teams last year. There

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Speaker 2: is nothing flukey about what Kansas is doing. There hasn't

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Speaker 2: been one game where they were suddenly outplayed and they

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Speaker 2: luck box it at the end. They have controlled all

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Speaker 2: of these games so far. But again, TCU is a

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Speaker 2: different sort of opponent for them. TCU is a team

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Speaker 2: people watched them last year, you know, and they might

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Speaker 2: be surprised on a different level with them. But again,

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Speaker 2: that TCU team had all the talent in the world

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Speaker 2: and now they're making use of it. So it's it's

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Speaker 2: a different sort of a thing, but again, a great

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Speaker 2: measuring stick game. I do think that line is a

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Speaker 2: little bit objectively low, because I don't think people are

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Speaker 2: giving TCU enough credit, and I think at this point

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Speaker 2: now the market has swung a little bit on Kansas,

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Speaker 2: where now everybody wants to believe in Kansas. If that

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Speaker 2: line comes down, certainly I'm not going to bet against

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Speaker 2: my alma mater. But if if that thing comes down

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Speaker 2: anymore and it's at you know, four, but especially three

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Speaker 2: and a half, for especially three, if that number gets

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Speaker 2: down there, for me, that would be a by signal

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Speaker 2: on TCU that the market has gone too far on

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Speaker 2: the Kansas side. And by the way, I will say

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Speaker 2: as far as an in game specific thing, Max Dugan,

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Speaker 2: the TCU quarterback, he it was a guy who was

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Speaker 2: an incumbent starter for them. It started multiple years for them.

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Speaker 2: Max Dugan is a kid who has very good mobility

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Speaker 2: and he's got a strong arm. His bugaboo has always

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Speaker 2: been accuracy, and so when Sunny Dykes got hired as

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Speaker 2: the TCU coach, everybody expected TCU to turn the job

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Speaker 2: over to Chad Morris's kid, Chandler Morris. He's small, he's

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Speaker 2: shorter the Max Dugan. He weighs less than Max Dugan.

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Speaker 2: He does not have Max Dugan's arm, and he does

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Speaker 2: not have Max Dugan's and letticism either. But he's more accurate,

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Speaker 2: and he understood that the spread system, that the whole

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Speaker 2: a raate thing, et cetera. He was a better fit

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Speaker 2: for it. But he comes out in the opener against Colorado.

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Speaker 2: The one half that Morris played, the TCU offense was

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Speaker 2: not moving against against one of the worst teams in

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Speaker 2: the FBS. Colorado just fired its coach earlier today, as

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Speaker 2: we're coming to you on Sunday. They fired Carl Durell.

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Speaker 2: But anyway, what once Chandler Morris got injured, they bring

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Speaker 2: in Max Dugan. They were scoring touchdown, touchdown, touchdown throughout

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Speaker 2: that you know, the second half, and then the next

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Speaker 2: game they played an FCS team, but Dugan played awesome

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Speaker 2: in that game. That wasn't you know, a measuring stick

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Speaker 2: or anything like that. But then now last week they

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Speaker 2: play Oklahoma and Dugan looked awesome. So it's like, what

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Speaker 2: a big key for this game is how is Max

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Speaker 2: Dugan gonna do through the air against Kansas. Kansas the

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Speaker 2: secondary's played way better than we were anticipating so far

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Speaker 2: this season, and they've been particularly good at making plays

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Speaker 2: on the ball. So if Max Dugan throws a couple

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Speaker 2: up where they're errant or he makes the wrong decision,

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Speaker 2: you could see the field getting flipped really quick. But

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Speaker 2: if Max Dugan keeps playing the way that he's been playing,

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Speaker 2: TCU has the talent of advantage across the formation. Their

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Speaker 2: best receiver. They don't even throw it to him. They

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Speaker 2: haven't thrown into him a ton yet. But Quinton Johnson,

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Speaker 2: I think he's a legitimate top fifty NFL draft prospect.

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Speaker 2: He's started like a poor man's Julio Jones in terms

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Speaker 2: of his frame, in terms as boss scales, in terms

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Speaker 2: of running after the catch with the ball. Super talented kid.

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Speaker 2: And then they got two or three other receivers as well. Kansas,

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Speaker 2: I don't know, can go cornerback for you, cornerback for

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Speaker 2: receiver across the formation. But again, that's all gonna come

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Speaker 2: down to do get because I think the TCU receivers

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Speaker 2: are gonna win that matchup. Ken Dugan be accurate enough

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Speaker 2: to take advantage of that. On the one side. I

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Speaker 2: also think Jalen Daniel's going to the other side. I

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Speaker 2: think he's gonna be able to take advantage of some

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Speaker 2: of the TCU defensive stuff as well. Even though that

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Speaker 2: TCU defense is up Jalen Dale has just been playing

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Speaker 2: so well so far, between the rushing and between the passing. Again,

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Speaker 2: it's gonna be a very interesting game. But objectively, trying

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Speaker 2: to put down my Crimson and blue glasses for just

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Speaker 2: a second, I probably would lean to tcut with where

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Speaker 2: the line is right now, and again, especially if that

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Speaker 2: thing toggles into the threes, I probably betting on TCU.

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Speaker 1: The next game up that we got here USC. They

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Speaker 1: took down the Sun Devils last week. Now they will

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Speaker 1: take on Washington State and they are going to be

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Speaker 1: playing this one as ten and a half point favorites.

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Speaker 1: Do you think this line should be a little bit higher.

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Speaker 2: I do. Yeah. My line on it is USC minus

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Speaker 2: thirteen point three. We've seen a weird thing with the

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Speaker 2: marketplace with USC, where it's like almost every every other week,

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Speaker 2: it's like one week that the market is way heavier

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Speaker 2: on USC, so you have to pay the USC tax,

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Speaker 2: but then it's like the next week they'll be doubting USC,

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Speaker 2: and then like you get you're sort of getting line

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Speaker 2: credit if you bet on USC. It's weird. It's almost

249
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Speaker 2: like it's a matchup specific and you can tell that

250
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Speaker 2: the market does not have its finger on USC. Yet

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Speaker 2: whatsoever the sharp betters don't, the public does, nobody does

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Speaker 2: at this point. But USC has continued to win some

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Speaker 2: of these games in sort of inauspicious circumstances or sort

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Speaker 2: of through things that the stats would point to you

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Speaker 2: as potentially fluky, for instance, like dominating the and over

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Speaker 2: margin in their first four games, something that is not sustainable,

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Speaker 2: especially knowing how many new starters they had on that defense.

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Speaker 2: But the offense is gonna get better and better and better.

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Speaker 2: We've already started to see some of that. You know,

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Speaker 2: I'm they're offensive talent. You put it up against dang

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Speaker 2: or any team in the nation. So for me, this

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Speaker 2: line is short. I also think the market trust Washington State,

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Speaker 2: so I think it's a little bit of residual doubt

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Speaker 2: on the USC side, a little bit of doubt or

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Speaker 2: I'm sorry, a little bit of debt for USC, but

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Speaker 2: being more confident in Washington State with some of these

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Speaker 2: performances that they put up. I'm showing almost three points

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Speaker 2: a line value on USC with where the line opened.

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Speaker 1: Aut I'm with you, I think that this I'm probably

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Speaker 1: gonna end up betting USC in this one, but I

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Speaker 1: am certainly not the expert here, but I just don't

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Speaker 1: trust Washington State at this point. I think that USC,

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Speaker 1: especially on home soil here, is going to be able

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Speaker 1: to figure it out. But next game up, it's definitely

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Speaker 1: a little more close to home because I cannot stand

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Speaker 1: the fact that Clemson took down NC State this weekend

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Speaker 1: because we were gonna get college game Day again, the

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Speaker 1: Syracuse NC State game, but instead Clemson comes out victorious

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Speaker 1: and now they head to Boston College as twenty and

280
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Speaker 1: a half point favorites.

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Speaker 2: I will say, though, this is.

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Speaker 1: Not the Clemson team that had Trevor Lawrence. They have

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Speaker 1: taken a real step back.

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Speaker 2: Oh well, yeah, for sure, for sure. But I mean

285
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Speaker 2: on Saturday yesterday, as we're coming to you right now,

286
00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:35,880
Speaker 2: was a very impressive performance by Clemson in lieu of

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Speaker 2: the circumstances. They had almost their entire defense either ruled

288
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Speaker 2: out before the game or got injured or ejected in

289
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Speaker 2: the first half, and so the fact that they held

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Speaker 2: on and ended up winning by ten, I believe beating

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Speaker 2: a very quality NC State team again in lieu of

292
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Speaker 2: those circumstances was pretty crazy. Like Brian Brese was ruled

293
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Speaker 2: out right before the game, Tyler Davis was out, they

294
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Speaker 2: had one of those stud edge rushers was out, They

295
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Speaker 2: lost one of the safeties to a targeting ejection. I

296
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Speaker 2: believe in the second quarter of that game. There their

297
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Speaker 2: linebacker that makes all the line calls. He was out

298
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Speaker 2: with an injury, I believe in the first quarter with

299
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Speaker 2: regards to this handicap. So again, very impressive that they

300
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Speaker 2: did what they did two NC State. They controlled that

301
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Speaker 2: entire game with essentially their B team defense. So for me,

302
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Speaker 2: that is super impressive. Yes, they're not the National championship

303
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Speaker 2: Clemson teams, you know, whether it's the Laurence seam or

304
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Speaker 2: the WATS team whatever. But like I mean, again, in

305
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Speaker 2: Lewis circumstances this game, what you need to pay attention

306
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Speaker 2: to this week is the reports coming out of Clemson

307
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Speaker 2: about the front seven, the health of those guys. You know,

308
00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:51,080
Speaker 2: again Brise was out. You have the injury questions with Davis,

309
00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:54,240
Speaker 2: a couple of the edge rudgers, rushers are compromise. Have

310
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Speaker 2: to see about that linebacker, what what his ailment is

311
00:15:57,520 --> 00:15:59,360
Speaker 2: it and if he could be back as well. But

312
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Speaker 2: the reason that awesome Clemson, you know, objectively awesome Clemson

313
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Speaker 2: front seven is so important in this matchup is Boston

314
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Speaker 2: College has one of the worst offensive lines, not just

315
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Speaker 2: in the Power five, in the entire FBS. It has

316
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Speaker 2: been stunning to watch how far the Boston College offensive

317
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Speaker 2: line fell off from what we knew of it in

318
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Speaker 2: recent seasons. They I mean, like you go back the

319
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Speaker 2: last five years, they have sent numerous offensive linemen into

320
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Speaker 2: the NFL. But it went from that to a dumpster

321
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Speaker 2: fire overnight in one season. And I can tell you

322
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Speaker 2: Zay Flowers, the receiver from Boston College who was willing

323
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Speaker 2: to listen to nil offers over the off season and

324
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Speaker 2: ended up deciding to come back to Boston College. And

325
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Speaker 2: he made a big deal of it if I turned

326
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Speaker 2: down all these other offers where I was going to

327
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Speaker 2: get more money, et cetera. I don't think he's puffing

328
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Speaker 2: his chest out about that anymore. I think Jay Flowers

329
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Speaker 2: would wish he could rewind the clock to the offseason

330
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Speaker 2: and lead boss in college, Phil Jerkovic, might be thinking

331
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Speaker 2: the same and or I wish I'd gone to the NFL.

332
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Speaker 2: But he was in a tough spot because he had

333
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Speaker 2: most of his previous season had been wiped out with

334
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Speaker 2: an injury, and when he was playing. He was compromised

335
00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:16,040
Speaker 2: with that injury. But those guys are being hamstrung by

336
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Speaker 2: that offensive line. Now they got this one game of

337
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Speaker 2: you know, it's like every dog has its day, and

338
00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:26,360
Speaker 2: that was Boston College yesterday against Louisville. They took advantage

339
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Speaker 2: of this Louisville team that has been chas essentially chasing

340
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Speaker 2: tail all season. Nobody can seem to figure out exactly

341
00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:37,520
Speaker 2: what Louisville's identity is, what kind of team do they

342
00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:41,800
Speaker 2: want to be, what exactly is Scott Saderfield's long term vision.

343
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Speaker 2: It's like Scott Saderfield got on the hot sege he

344
00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:47,840
Speaker 2: expected things to go different, but then all of a

345
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Speaker 2: sudden he foun himself on the hot seat. And then

346
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Speaker 2: this offseason he just spent going yolo in the transfer

347
00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:57,239
Speaker 2: portal and he did win some derbies for like some

348
00:17:57,280 --> 00:18:00,840
Speaker 2: of these high profile guys, and so you were wondering, like, well,

349
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Speaker 2: maybe maybe he's onto something, you know, being aggressive, and

350
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Speaker 2: he was like Lane was aggressive. Obviously Lincoln Riley was

351
00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:09,440
Speaker 2: the most aggressive, but like maybe you know, sort of

352
00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:12,639
Speaker 2: along that line of continuum and maybe he shored up

353
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Speaker 2: the deficiencies, the very obvious ones that we had seen

354
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Speaker 2: with the Louisville team the season previous, that the two

355
00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:21,240
Speaker 2: years previous or whatever. But one of the main guys

356
00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:23,439
Speaker 2: got injured, Jermaine Lowell, the guy that they brought him

357
00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:25,439
Speaker 2: from Arizona State. Some of the other ones are not

358
00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,440
Speaker 2: playing as well as they had thought. So it's it's

359
00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:31,880
Speaker 2: not only strategically short I mean game in and game

360
00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:34,960
Speaker 2: out short term that you're sort of scratching your head

361
00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:38,800
Speaker 2: or long term of what exactly is Sadderfield doing here.

362
00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:43,240
Speaker 2: You also have the thing of the things that the

363
00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:45,960
Speaker 2: roster moves that they were making to try to shore

364
00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:49,320
Speaker 2: up some of these deficiencies, either or not working out

365
00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:54,520
Speaker 2: or the plan got foiled through injury or whatever. For

366
00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:59,680
Speaker 2: as far as Boston College goes, if Clemson's front seven

367
00:18:59,880 --> 00:19:03,320
Speaker 2: is as depreciated by injuries and attrition as it was

368
00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:06,840
Speaker 2: in the previous game against NZ State, that would be

369
00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:11,040
Speaker 2: the only scenario where someone should consider betting on Boston College.

370
00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:15,080
Speaker 2: But even in this game, because that the discrepancy between

371
00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:18,720
Speaker 2: Clemson's front seven and Boston College's offensive line is that

372
00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:21,960
Speaker 2: precipitous where it doesn't really even matter what the point

373
00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:26,399
Speaker 2: spread is, because if the one train starts rolling Boston

374
00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:29,040
Speaker 2: College is gonna have a real problem, Like Djerkovic is

375
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:31,560
Speaker 2: going to be seeing multiple guys in his face immediately

376
00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:35,000
Speaker 2: after getting every snap. If that's the case, But it

377
00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:37,920
Speaker 2: I think it's very dependent on that because if Clemson

378
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:40,680
Speaker 2: does still have all those guys out, they're coming off

379
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:43,240
Speaker 2: of a big win. If they're still playing all the

380
00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:46,840
Speaker 2: second stringers in the front seven, and then the third

381
00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:50,480
Speaker 2: stringers become the rotational guys because Dabo does like to

382
00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:53,440
Speaker 2: rotate guys in Venables did too when he was there.

383
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:57,840
Speaker 2: If that's still the case, and maybe they Clemson withholds

384
00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:00,959
Speaker 2: people because they know the Boston College stings year, that

385
00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,040
Speaker 2: would be the thing that I'd be monitoring for this game.

386
00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:07,159
Speaker 2: Otherwise I don't have any interest in it, but you

387
00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:09,919
Speaker 2: need to know about Clemson's front seven down if all

388
00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,240
Speaker 2: the Clemson guys are back on Saturday, I actually might

389
00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:15,959
Speaker 2: bet on Clemson just because they will overwhelm Boston College's

390
00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:17,960
Speaker 2: offensive line like a tidal wave.

391
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:23,040
Speaker 1: The next game that we've got up here, Texas versus Oklahoma.

392
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,280
Speaker 1: All you know, it's always a good one and Oklahoma

393
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:28,480
Speaker 1: is going to be getting four and a half points here.

394
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:32,240
Speaker 2: Is Texas really back? I don't know if I don't

395
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,359
Speaker 2: know if I go that far, but every time, Yeah,

396
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:38,240
Speaker 2: the key for this one is is Quinn you Weers back.

397
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:41,479
Speaker 2: We have thought each of the last two games that

398
00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 2: we were gonna see Quinn you wers the one two games.

399
00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:47,800
Speaker 2: So before this past weekend he had become listed on

400
00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,320
Speaker 2: the depth chart as a co starter again. He had

401
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:53,800
Speaker 2: returned to practice provisionally and then he went through like

402
00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:55,679
Speaker 2: the warm ups and stuff, but he didn't play in

403
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:57,960
Speaker 2: that one. And then last week we were hoping for

404
00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:00,439
Speaker 2: him too, and it was the same sort of a

405
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:02,600
Speaker 2: thing where they were listening him on the depth chart,

406
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 2: he warmed up before the game, you know, all that

407
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,080
Speaker 2: sort of he was at practice stuff like that, but

408
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:11,439
Speaker 2: did not end up playing in that one, which, you know,

409
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,080
Speaker 2: in one sense, it's like, well, for two weeks they've

410
00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 2: sort of indicated that he very well maybe back for

411
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,639
Speaker 2: that game, but he hasn't played, So maybe we should

412
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:22,440
Speaker 2: be more pessimistic about Queen Yours's status for this game.

413
00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:25,920
Speaker 2: But on the other hand, I remember two weeks ago

414
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:29,040
Speaker 2: when there was the report of like quin Ewers could

415
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:32,439
Speaker 2: actually play this weekend, and and like I called someone

416
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:36,159
Speaker 2: and I was like, is this bs, cause it was

417
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:39,040
Speaker 2: way ahead of what the timeline initially that they the

418
00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 2: texts had given us for Queen Yours potential recovery. So

419
00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 2: I was pretty stunned two weeks ago. And and then

420
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 2: you know, it was like, is he that far ahead

421
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:50,760
Speaker 2: of the schedule of his you know, recovery timeline whatever,

422
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:53,840
Speaker 2: And and you know, of course then again he didn't

423
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:55,879
Speaker 2: end up playing. He also did not end up playing

424
00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:59,919
Speaker 2: yesterday against West Virginia. But the important thing to know

425
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:04,399
Speaker 2: is the Oklahoma game was always circled. It's not just

426
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:08,200
Speaker 2: circled on the team calendar for Texas once quinn Ewers

427
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:10,639
Speaker 2: was injured. If you go back and you google the

428
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:14,159
Speaker 2: stories from the day after quinn Youwrs' injury and the

429
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 2: Austin Beat reporters writing up that game, almost every single

430
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:20,920
Speaker 2: one of them was like, the target date for quinn Youwrs'

431
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 2: return is the Red Red River rivalry game against Oklahoma.

432
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:27,840
Speaker 2: This is the game that they were getting them ready for.

433
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 2: I would expect quinn Ewers to play because of the

434
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:33,120
Speaker 2: indication we got in the last two weeks, because this

435
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 2: was the game that was on the timeline. You know,

436
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 2: it wasn't like a pie in the sky thing. This

437
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 2: was the correct timeline for quinn Ewers to return. So

438
00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:44,639
Speaker 2: I think you know, between that, we'll see about Xavier

439
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:47,240
Speaker 2: worthies how they you know, he one hundred percent, but

440
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,639
Speaker 2: if you got one hundred, you know, ninety percent quin yours,

441
00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 2: let's say, and then you got close to one hundred

442
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 2: percent Xavier Worthy. John Robinson and all those guys going

443
00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 2: up against his Oklahoma team that we have seen now

444
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 2: mightily struggle against Kansas State and TCU, two teams that

445
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:08,080
Speaker 2: were not being talked about as big Big twelve title

446
00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 2: contenders coming into the season. This Texas offense could give

447
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 2: them real problems. And we saw what Texas's defense did

448
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,720
Speaker 2: to a full strength Alabama offense in Week two. The

449
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 2: Texas defense is up this year so and it bears

450
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:29,359
Speaker 2: mentioning Dylan Gabriel status. Dylan Gabriel suffered a one of

451
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 2: those injuries yesterday where it was like you sort of

452
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:34,960
Speaker 2: hold your breath, you know, and then they went to

453
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:38,119
Speaker 2: the commercial and they carted him off the field. He

454
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:42,679
Speaker 2: took a really nasty shot to his head. We'll see,

455
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 2: you know, we never know what that especially because in

456
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 2: college they don't have to do the injury report, and

457
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 2: in fact, the coaches not only did they not have

458
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 2: to give the injury report, they can also hide behind

459
00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 2: essentially hide behind the hippolas where I don't need to

460
00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 2: give you guys any information because I'm protect the kid,

461
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 2: the college kid, the college student, YadA YadA. So we

462
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 2: don't get a lot of accurate injury information for those reasons.

463
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,679
Speaker 2: But that's something where you're gonna need to monitor the

464
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 2: situation this week and then read in between the lines,

465
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 2: because these things are very important as far as this

466
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 2: handicap goes. If Dylan gabriel is not playing, Oklahoma is

467
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 2: up up Poops Creek in this game. Oklahoma has not

468
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 2: been impressive all season. We saw Texas man handle West

469
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:31,640
Speaker 2: Virginia last week with Hudson Cards starting. If they're at

470
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,359
Speaker 2: full strength going against an Oklahoma team without Dylan Gabrielle,

471
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 2: Texas might be back for one weekend.

472
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,000
Speaker 1: Now. The next game that we've got up here in

473
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:42,439
Speaker 1: the last one we're gonna get to before we get

474
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 1: into some of your biggest line discrepancies. Michigan versus Indiana.

475
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:51,120
Speaker 1: Indiana getting twenty two and a half points at home here,

476
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,480
Speaker 1: but this Michigan team Jim. We know that Jim Harbaugh

477
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:57,919
Speaker 1: is not afraid to just blow teams out, and I

478
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 1: am not of the belief that Indiana is even remotely good.

479
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 1: I feel like this could be a whole lot more

480
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 1: than twenty two points by the end of it.

481
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,439
Speaker 2: No, yeah, I mean Indiana thinks My line in this

482
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 2: game is Michigan minus twenty three point three. If I

483
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:14,440
Speaker 2: was setting the line as a book maker, I probably

484
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:16,680
Speaker 2: would have installed it at Michigan minus twenty four and

485
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 2: a half, to be honest, because I wouldn't mind having

486
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 2: exposure to the Michigan side on this one. Indiana is

487
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:28,359
Speaker 2: the luckiest this This is not an opinion the second

488
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 2: order wins or you know pick your statu choice. India.

489
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:34,720
Speaker 2: The Indiana Hoosiers are the singular most lucky team in

490
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,640
Speaker 2: college football all season in terms of what their expected

491
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 2: wins would be based on their performance on the field

492
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 2: against what their wins actually are in the standings. They're

493
00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 2: a fraudulent team. Michigan is anything but a fraudulent team.

494
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:53,600
Speaker 2: Indiana's stuff. They pulled multiple wins out out of their

495
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:55,920
Speaker 2: you know what at the very end in games where

496
00:25:55,920 --> 00:26:00,480
Speaker 2: they were soundly outplayed. This season, the fourth quarter, late

497
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:03,720
Speaker 2: fourth quarter heroics are not going to be there against Michigan.

498
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 2: I would expect Michigan to absolutely wipe the floor with Indiana.

499
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 1: Now let's talk about this next game up here. We're

500
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 1: going to get into some of your line discrepant season.

501
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 1: We're gonna start off with one more big game here

502
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 1: because we got the number two team in the land,

503
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:21,679
Speaker 1: Georgia laying twenty seven and a half against Auburn. The

504
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 1: times have been a little tougher for Auburn as of late.

505
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:29,000
Speaker 2: They for sure have. Yeah, Brian Harrison managed to save

506
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:33,080
Speaker 2: his job again this week. You know, it's funny. It's

507
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 2: like the Brian Harson Show of like how long he

508
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 2: can prolong the inevitable. The previous week, there was all

509
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 2: the reports the day before the game against Missouri that

510
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 2: if Harson loses to Missouri, he will be fired, which

511
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,879
Speaker 2: nobody was surprised by that at all, because everybody at

512
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 2: Auburn has wanted to fight Harrison since the end of

513
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 2: last season. And then Auburn absolutely should have lost that game.

514
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 2: They were outplayed by Missouri during it. Even at the

515
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 2: end of the game it required flukey start stands to

516
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 2: get into overtime. It also required flukey circumstances for Auburn

517
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 2: to prevail on overtime. They shouldn't have won that game

518
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:10,879
Speaker 2: at multiple different junctures, whether it was in regulation or

519
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 2: whether it was in overtime, but they managed to. So

520
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:16,199
Speaker 2: then Harrison held on for another week, and then this

521
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:20,560
Speaker 2: past week against LSU, it was the opposite Auburn and

522
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 2: I say this with a tear in my eye to

523
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:28,239
Speaker 2: quote Rick Flair, but Auburn, like because I was on

524
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:32,879
Speaker 2: LSU minus eight or whatever, and Auburn, I have to acknowledge,

525
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:37,000
Speaker 2: actually outplayed LSU on the field for the vast majority

526
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:39,360
Speaker 2: of that game. LSU was able to pull it out,

527
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 2: I believe by four at the end. Unfortunately for me,

528
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 2: it wasn't enough to cover my ticket. But Auburn probably

529
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 2: deserved to win that game, and they didn't. But they

530
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 2: played well enough, and in conjunction with the what was

531
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:54,359
Speaker 2: a flukey win the week before, Harson's going to be

532
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:58,879
Speaker 2: hanging on for one more week. This does not seem

533
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 2: like a good proposition, Harson. This week, you got the

534
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:07,400
Speaker 2: best performance from your team of the season last week, right,

535
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 2: the best effort that you have gotten from them back

536
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,880
Speaker 2: against the Wall game, and you came up just short.

537
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 2: Probably shouldn't have, but that's that's the way it went down.

538
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 2: You took a loss in a game that you could

539
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 2: have won. And now you got to turn around the

540
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:23,439
Speaker 2: next week after being deflated like that. You need to

541
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 2: head into Athens, Georgia to face this Georgia team that

542
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 2: has gone from this goliath the nation, the defending national champions.

543
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 2: Then in week one they wiped the floor with Oregon.

544
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 2: Everyone's toasting their champagne glasses to the Georgia Bulldogs. But

545
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 2: over the last two weeks now they're starting to get

546
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 2: mocked by the same people that were praising them before

547
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:48,680
Speaker 2: and they are well aware of it. Between essentially no

548
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 2: showing the Kent State game, you know, they just thought

549
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:53,239
Speaker 2: that they were gonna roll the ball out and they

550
00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 2: were gonna play around with them like a cat with

551
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 2: a mouse, and Kent State actually showed up for that

552
00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 2: game and was game with them. And then last yesterday

553
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 2: on Saturday, against Missouri, it was it was stunning how

554
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 2: poorly Georgia was playing in that game and allowing Missouri

555
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 2: to I shouldn't even say allowing them to hang around,

556
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 2: because Missouri led for long portions of that game, and

557
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 2: Georgia was it wasn't even like the Kent stake in

558
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 2: that the effort was very clearly lacking. Like from the

559
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 2: start it was like okay, boys, like the game started,

560
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 2: you know, like stuff like that. The Missouri game was

561
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 2: weird because there was these several different spots where like

562
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 2: Georgia just did something incredibly stupid or inopportune that gifted Missouri,

563
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 2: whether it's field position or a situation or whatever, and

564
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 2: then they got behind the eight ball and then had

565
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 2: to come back to the very end. But either way,

566
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 2: now Auburn has to go into essentially what is a

567
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 2: pissed off horness nest. I don't know if I can

568
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 2: say pissed off on the pod, but Georgia is they

569
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 2: have not been locked in at all the last two weeks,

570
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 2: but they're going to be reading about that and how

571
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,240
Speaker 2: now they've dropped in the polls all this different stuff,

572
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 2: people aren't trusting them anymore. YadA, YadA, YadA. Not a

573
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 2: great situational spot for Auburn. A locked in Georgia is

574
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 2: going to wipe the floor with this Auburn team. And

575
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 2: I've been waiting for Auburn to quit on Harson. It's

576
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 2: going to happen when the chips are down at some point,

577
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 2: this might be the opportunity for it, and then they

578
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 2: just get boat race and then that's the end of Harson.

579
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:29,959
Speaker 2: Even though my systems showing a couple of points of

580
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 2: theoretical line value on Georgia, it's not baking. In the

581
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 2: context of the ancillary details of this thing, I definitely

582
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:39,240
Speaker 2: would not bet on Auburn in that game.

583
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:43,720
Speaker 1: The next one up here, we've got Ohio State and

584
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 1: Michigan State, and Michigan State getting twenty four and a

585
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 1: half points at home here. Do you like the Buckeyes

586
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 1: to be able to just absolutely run over this game

587
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 1: or is Michigan State going to be pal able to

588
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 1: put up a little bit of a fight here.

589
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 2: It's this is assuredly going to be a stay away

590
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 2: gay for me. It's another game where my numbers are

591
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:05,440
Speaker 2: appointing at Michigan State. But they've done that now for

592
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 2: multiple weeks. I'm not the only and last week it

593
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 2: burned me that that, you know, that was one of

594
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 2: my worst ones too. I tried to take the eight

595
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 2: nine points of Michigan State against Maryland and we saw

596
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 2: how that one worked out. It has been a struggle

597
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:24,719
Speaker 2: for people who do what I do to try to

598
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 2: catch up to how far Michigan State has fallen, because

599
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 2: it goes beyond even what would sort of the band

600
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 2: of outcomes of what data would suggest is theoretically probable,

601
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 2: like Michigan State is, they're falling beneath the band of

602
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 2: outcomes Like this is actually bad for mel Tucker. It's

603
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 2: not bad for him in terms of his job status.

604
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 2: They can't fire him because he's got ninety five million

605
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:54,080
Speaker 2: dollars left on his deal, but it doesn't show very

606
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 2: well for him and his dedication is after getting that

607
00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:00,520
Speaker 2: big deal. We're gonna have to see what goes on

608
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 2: at Michigan State because now you have this marriage long term,

609
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 2: neither side can get out of it. Mel Tucker is

610
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 2: going to need to get that motivation back that this

611
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 2: team might The point I'm trying to make is this

612
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 2: team might have arrived into this season dead on arrival. Essentially,

613
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 2: it doesn't seem like Tucker made as many alterations in

614
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 2: additions through the transfer portal as he could have one

615
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 2: player leaving a team. Kenneth Walker in this case shouldn't

616
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 2: especially a running back in the game of football should

617
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:37,800
Speaker 2: not cause you to go from a consensus top ten

618
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:41,000
Speaker 2: team to a team that now might be out of

619
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 2: the consensus top fifty. Like it just shouldn't have. I mean,

620
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 2: Michigan State brought back a decent amount of places, and yes,

621
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 2: they have had inactives, you know, maybe more than the

622
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 2: average team so far. You know, Jayden Reid missed one

623
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 2: of those lobsided losses, They've had multiple injuries to key guys,

624
00:32:57,280 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 2: et cetera. But even so, that far of a drop off.

625
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 2: I tried. It's funny, Thomas. I went on a VSI

626
00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 2: in show on Friday and they asked me about that

627
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 2: Michigan State Maryland game, and I just sort of chuckled,

628
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:14,760
Speaker 2: and I said, like, I have to do it because

629
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 2: my system is yelling at me one more time that

630
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 2: Michigan there's value on Michigan State. So I said, I said,

631
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:24,719
Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet them, but I said, I promise you

632
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:28,240
Speaker 2: guys this. If Michigan State does not cover this game

633
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:32,000
Speaker 2: and they're not particularly like it wasn't a fluky reason

634
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 2: that they didn't cover it, I said, that is the

635
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:36,480
Speaker 2: last time I will try to stick my hand in

636
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 2: the cookie jar of Michigan State under the auspice of

637
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 2: the idea that I'm getting value by buying low. I'm

638
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:46,720
Speaker 2: done with that. I will not put any more of

639
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 2: my heart earned money behind mel Tucker, at least in

640
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 2: the short term. So even though again my numbers are

641
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,880
Speaker 2: showing I got Ohio State minus twenty point six in

642
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 2: that game, so my numbers are showing around four points

643
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 2: of line value on Michigan State. But it's we can't

644
00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 2: we can't manually adjust Michigan State down far enough to

645
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:13,920
Speaker 2: recognize what the Vegas lines are on it. I just

646
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 2: got to stay away from their games and or bet

647
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:18,839
Speaker 2: on the other team. But this one probably with where

648
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,280
Speaker 2: this line started, this game being in east Land saying

649
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 2: it's probably gonna be a stay away informational game for me.

650
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 1: I think that's definitely a wise course of action.

651
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 2: Here.

652
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:31,840
Speaker 1: Ohio State, I don't know. I think they'll be tired

653
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 1: off the beatdown of Rutgers.

654
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:37,719
Speaker 2: You know, Rutgers covering that game, though very importantly.

655
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 1: They did cover in that game. That is important to realize.

656
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:44,240
Speaker 1: And now we're gonna go from a soso Ohio team

657
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:48,320
Speaker 1: to the class of the Buckeye State Miami of Ohio

658
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:51,160
Speaker 1: is taking on Kent State. Here in Miami's getting three

659
00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:53,160
Speaker 1: and a half points in this game. I know this

660
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 1: is going to be one of the big ones. I'm

661
00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 1: surprised Game Day didn't decide to go here instead. But

662
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:01,360
Speaker 1: where are you going in Miami of Ohia versus Kent State.

663
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 2: The good people of Miami, Ohio are going to be

664
00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 2: very happy that you heard that, including shout out to

665
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 2: my buddy Tom Downey, a Cowboys writer that went to

666
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 2: Miami of Ohio, who calls them the real Miami. Whenever

667
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 2: we would do the online dinos for NCAA fourteen, Downey

668
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 2: would I always immediately call Miami, Ohio.

669
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 1: So anyway, I actually my entire mom's side of my

670
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 1: family are buck Eyes, except my great aunt who went

671
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 1: to Miami of Ohio.

672
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 2: Oh really yeah, okay, yeah, so the real Miami, I guess,

673
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:40,839
Speaker 2: as Downey would say, this game is. It's another one

674
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 2: that's really interesting to me. And the reason why is

675
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 2: because coming into today, like when you know, for me Sundays,

676
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:51,320
Speaker 2: I watched my vikings and then the rest of it,

677
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,400
Speaker 2: I'm running, as Thomas knows, I'm running my numbers and

678
00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:57,239
Speaker 2: get my injury notes up until we shoot the show

679
00:35:57,360 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 2: or whatever. This game was one where I you know,

680
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:02,720
Speaker 2: when you're looking at the card before you run the numbers,

681
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:05,439
Speaker 2: it's one where you're sort of hoping that you're gonna

682
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 2: get a value on a specific side, and then it

683
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 2: didn't happen for me. I came in like and preferring

684
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:16,799
Speaker 2: Ken State because coming into the year, like, I like

685
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:19,440
Speaker 2: Sean Lewis going back years and years and years. He

686
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:23,719
Speaker 2: was Deno Babers' longtime offensive coordinator when Dino like like

687
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,920
Speaker 2: had all the explosive offenses and stuff like that, like

688
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:31,399
Speaker 2: bowling Green specifically or whatever, and he has done all

689
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:34,640
Speaker 2: that stuff with Ken State and typically you get a

690
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:38,360
Speaker 2: lot of value with Ken State in early October during

691
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:43,720
Speaker 2: the Lewis era. The reason why is because Ken State notoriously,

692
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:48,320
Speaker 2: for their four non conference games, notoriously takes three enormous

693
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 2: checks from the blue Bloods. This year it was Georgia

694
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 2: because I was the one that they getting close in Washington,

695
00:36:57,320 --> 00:37:02,280
Speaker 2: and I'm gonna blame on the third one. But anyway,

696
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 2: that's what they do every year, and then they play

697
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:06,399
Speaker 2: one FCS team so that like one of the four

698
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:10,319
Speaker 2: they'll take the win. But they usually lay down in

699
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:13,320
Speaker 2: those games. It's not just a talent discrepancy. It's that

700
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 2: Ken State wants. They want to set themselves up as

701
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 2: well as they can for the MAC schedule in the

702
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:21,160
Speaker 2: short term. That's what the coaching staff wants, and then

703
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 2: of course the athletic program wants to set the rest

704
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 2: of their sporting programs up well long term. It's the

705
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 2: reason why they're putting the football team in a bad

706
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 2: situation with the three payoff games. But that's the way

707
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:35,920
Speaker 2: it manifests is usually they get annihilated in all those games,

708
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:38,840
Speaker 2: and then once you get into October and they're playing

709
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 2: these MAC teams, it's like a one in three Kent

710
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:44,280
Speaker 2: State team that you've seen lose by fifty points three times.

711
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:47,279
Speaker 2: Now they're facing a different team that you know, maybe

712
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 2: as a better record because they don't play nearly as

713
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 2: hard of a schedule, whatever, and then you can get

714
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 2: value on Kent State. So that's what I was sitting

715
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:57,440
Speaker 2: dead right on coming into it. Then I ran my numbers,

716
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 2: and my numbers were to quote league or so said,

717
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 2: not so fast, my friend on this or that. The

718
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 2: rest of the market was thinking exactly what I was thinking,

719
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:09,719
Speaker 2: and that that sort of pulled the line the other way.

720
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 2: But right now we got a line up kent State

721
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:15,760
Speaker 2: minus three and a half at Miami of Ohio, whereas

722
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,520
Speaker 2: my line on this game is Miami of Ohio minus

723
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:22,040
Speaker 2: one point seven. Miami Ohio a team that just got

724
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:27,640
Speaker 2: upset at home by Buffalo Buffalo, a team that it

725
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:30,000
Speaker 2: was on the Miami was at at Buffalo, but they

726
00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 2: did lose that game. Buffalo is a team that the

727
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 2: market had liked before and had missed on it, missed

728
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 2: on and missed on it, and then finally Buffalo got

729
00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 2: right playing this Miami of Ohio team the week before,

730
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 2: though Miami Ohio had beaten Northwestern. You can certainly nippick

731
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:47,120
Speaker 2: Northwestern as a team as far as being a Big

732
00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:50,440
Speaker 2: ten Big ten team, but like for Miami, Miami of Ohio,

733
00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:53,319
Speaker 2: that was a big win. And then the other games

734
00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 2: they played was Kentucky and Cincinnati and then an FCS team,

735
00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 2: So it's hard to get information about Miami beyond that.

736
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 2: Kenn State is stuck in everybody's head because they played

737
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 2: Georgia so well, right, and then last week we might

738
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:09,920
Speaker 2: have gotten more value on the other like for pushing

739
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:13,040
Speaker 2: it towards ken State or yeah, ken State getting the

740
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 2: value so so so the line getting pushed more towards

741
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 2: Miami and Ohio. Had Ken State not held on for

742
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:22,759
Speaker 2: an overtime win against Ohio last week, Ohio was able

743
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 2: to keep that one close. And then you know, of

744
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:27,840
Speaker 2: course in overtime that that's where Ken State ended up

745
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 2: winning by a touchdown. In terms of the overall talent

746
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:34,400
Speaker 2: UH and and again the schematics, and and who I

747
00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 2: trust in it? I trust Sean Lewis a little bit

748
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 2: more he did. Ken State did lose some guys over

749
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 2: the They lost their starting quarterback, a kid that actually

750
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:45,960
Speaker 2: got to look from the NFL went to the combine.

751
00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:47,840
Speaker 2: Stuff like that, they have a new quarterback, they have

752
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 2: some new new guys in important UH spots on their team,

753
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 2: skill positions, et cetera. But with where my numbers are

754
00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 2: telling me, instead of this game being a Sunday bet

755
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 2: on Ken State, it became a I need to sit

756
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:04,920
Speaker 2: back and I need to handicap this game during the

757
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 2: week and decide if my preconceived notions or you know,

758
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:13,839
Speaker 2: disposition heading into it of preferring Ken State provisionally, if

759
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:17,359
Speaker 2: that is what I actually believe after I dig into

760
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:20,759
Speaker 2: the numbers, the matchups of the one team's you know,

761
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:24,799
Speaker 2: rushing efficiency against the other team's run defense efficiency, the

762
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:27,279
Speaker 2: explosion on both all that sort of stuff. The end

763
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 2: game stuff is, you know, should I ride with what

764
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:33,319
Speaker 2: I initially felt or should I ride with what my

765
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 2: sort of tree top numbers are telling me. It's going

766
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 2: to be a handicap for me this week, and it's

767
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 2: gonna be one of the games that I dig deepest into,

768
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:40,359
Speaker 2: I think.

769
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 1: And that's the thing. These smaller games, the ones that

770
00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:45,520
Speaker 1: you're not really thinking about because they don't grab the headlines,

771
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:47,080
Speaker 1: that's where you're gonna be able to get a better

772
00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:49,359
Speaker 1: price in the market, kind of like the next one

773
00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 1: up here. You already talked about Buffalo. Well, they're playing

774
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 1: Bowling Green now Bowling Green laying minus one and a

775
00:40:57,120 --> 00:41:00,080
Speaker 1: half in this game. Where are you going to this

776
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:02,240
Speaker 1: is your line says it should be very different.

777
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, Buffalo is. You know I talked about like the

778
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:11,279
Speaker 2: market where the market in if I'm recalling right, it

779
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:13,480
Speaker 2: was weeks two and three where the market was like

780
00:41:14,440 --> 00:41:17,319
Speaker 2: it there was so much action going in on Buffalo

781
00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 2: where you're like, if you've done this for long enough,

782
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:22,920
Speaker 2: you're looking at the line moves and you're looking at

783
00:41:22,920 --> 00:41:25,439
Speaker 2: the tickets bought and stuff like that, and you're just

784
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:28,959
Speaker 2: sort of scratching your head of like, who knows more

785
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 2: about this game than I do? And what do they know?

786
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 2: But then Buffalo misfired in both of those spots, and

787
00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:38,360
Speaker 2: there were some people with some deep pockets that lost

788
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 2: money in both those games. What's really interesting over the

789
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 2: past two weeks that has not been as much of

790
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:47,360
Speaker 2: the case that the market has not been as hot

791
00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:51,319
Speaker 2: after Buffalo as they were the last two weeks are

792
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 2: the ones that Buffalo won. So it seems like the

793
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 2: Buffalo team that the Sharps wanted to see week two

794
00:41:57,200 --> 00:42:01,239
Speaker 2: and three they finally showed up week four. And as

795
00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:04,839
Speaker 2: far as Bowling Green, they have one of the more

796
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:11,480
Speaker 2: prototypical mac starts of their season as a as in

797
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 2: contrast to what I was talking about with ken State,

798
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:16,600
Speaker 2: where Ken State plays that you know, like the the

799
00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:21,399
Speaker 2: Golias or whatever, Bowling Green to this point they've gotten

800
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 2: the thing of where they've gotten the They played two

801
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:27,399
Speaker 2: poor opponents one and another G five opponent, and then

802
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:29,560
Speaker 2: then they took their medicine on the two road games

803
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 2: to the you know, the blue Bloods or whatever. But

804
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:34,760
Speaker 2: like they they lost their their games very similar scores

805
00:42:34,800 --> 00:42:38,480
Speaker 2: to UCLA and Missippi State on the road. They also

806
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:41,000
Speaker 2: had lost at home to Eastern Kentucky, which is the

807
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:43,759
Speaker 2: embarrassing loss for Bowling Green so far. But they did

808
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:47,399
Speaker 2: catch Marshall sort of with their pants down that week

809
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 2: that Marshall was coming off the big upset win against

810
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:53,399
Speaker 2: Notre Dame, Bowling Green ambushed them the next week won

811
00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:56,279
Speaker 2: by a field goal. Then this past week they go

812
00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:59,960
Speaker 2: to Akron and Bowling Green was a Jews favorite. They

813
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:02,279
Speaker 2: only win by three points in that game against this

814
00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:05,839
Speaker 2: Acron team that has been been very bad. It's hard

815
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:08,040
Speaker 2: for me to get my finger on Bowling Green right now,

816
00:43:08,480 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 2: a team whose performance has gone it's been, uh, you know,

817
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:16,160
Speaker 2: going up and down by this much week to week,

818
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:19,440
Speaker 2: where you can lose at home to a mediocre FCS team,

819
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 2: and then you can beat a team that just beat

820
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 2: Notre Dame, you know, et cetera. And then when you

821
00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 2: play down against a team like Akron that shouldn't be

822
00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:34,120
Speaker 2: beating any even average MAC opponent right now, or even

823
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:37,279
Speaker 2: slightly below average MAC upon it, which I feel like

824
00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 2: bull and Green. That's what they were expecting to be

825
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:41,560
Speaker 2: this year. That's what they've sort of been building towards.

826
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:44,880
Speaker 2: So I it's it's a hard one of trying to

827
00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 2: figure out, like where your finger is on both these teams,

828
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 2: because they have been so hard to get your your

829
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:55,759
Speaker 2: finger on. But I do think that I'm I would

830
00:43:55,800 --> 00:44:00,400
Speaker 2: be on Buffalo in in this game. Again, it seems

831
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:02,840
Speaker 2: like they have finally turned the corner to being what

832
00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 2: the sharps in the marketplace, what they had wanted them

833
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 2: to be previously, whereas Bull and Green they're just so

834
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:13,560
Speaker 2: up and down, up and down. The thing with Bull

835
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:17,200
Speaker 2: and Green is they can catch the sunlight in like

836
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:20,600
Speaker 2: we've seen this the past couple of years. The Marshall game,

837
00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:23,359
Speaker 2: of course, was not the first September ambush we've seen

838
00:44:23,400 --> 00:44:25,799
Speaker 2: in the past. They did that to Minnesota as well.

839
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:28,160
Speaker 2: That one was on the road, But it's like in

840
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:30,720
Speaker 2: the other games where there's not as big as the lights,

841
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 2: that's where they play sort of the expectations. For me,

842
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:37,920
Speaker 2: I prefer Buffalo right now, with where that number is,

843
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 2: I think Buffalo should be favored. My line on it

844
00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 2: is Buffalo minus three point two and.

845
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:45,680
Speaker 1: Let's cap it all off. Your one final game Oregon

846
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 1: in Arizona. U of a getting ten and a half

847
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:52,839
Speaker 1: at home right now. But Oregon, I don't know, what

848
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 1: do you think about them? What do you make of

849
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:57,320
Speaker 1: this team? Is the pack twell doesn't have many great

850
00:44:57,360 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 1: schools left after the next couple of years with the accident,

851
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:01,920
Speaker 1: Is Oregon all that's remaining?

852
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:05,880
Speaker 2: Uh well, no, I mean of course you got USC.

853
00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:08,840
Speaker 2: You know they're gonna have to figure out I'm.

854
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:11,000
Speaker 1: Talking about yeah, I'm talking about down the road here with.

855
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah, after the exodus maybe yeah, yeah, I

856
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 2: mean when, and we'll have to see what the pieces

857
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 2: look like, you know, I mean like because obviously USC

858
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 2: and UCLI are not going to be they were just

859
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:25,840
Speaker 2: the first dominoes. But we'll have to see what the

860
00:45:25,840 --> 00:45:29,799
Speaker 2: reconstituted thing looks like. But Oregon has looked okay so far,

861
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:34,000
Speaker 2: especially when you bring your mind back to that opening

862
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:37,719
Speaker 2: game against Georgia, where like, you know, there was some

863
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:40,120
Speaker 2: thought that Oregon could be a little bit more competitive

864
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:43,440
Speaker 2: in it. Maybe that upgraded the quarterback from Brown to Knicks.

865
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:46,920
Speaker 2: Now you had the Georgia defensive coordinator that the architect

866
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:50,200
Speaker 2: of that defense, Dan Lanning, now he's going against his

867
00:45:50,239 --> 00:45:53,880
Speaker 2: former team, and Georgia wiped the floirt with Oregon. But

868
00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:57,759
Speaker 2: ever since, we all we just totally dropped our expectations

869
00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:00,200
Speaker 2: of Oregon. Yeah, this is like a classic life. But

870
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:02,759
Speaker 2: it's like then, they've sort of turned into what we

871
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:05,360
Speaker 2: thought they were going to be initially. They've won the

872
00:46:05,640 --> 00:46:08,160
Speaker 2: four games since then, and they've looked pretty good and

873
00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 2: doing it. I mean, they slapped around BYU when BYU

874
00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:14,160
Speaker 2: came into that game as a top fifteen team in

875
00:46:14,200 --> 00:46:17,600
Speaker 2: terms of the polls. They won that Washington State game,

876
00:46:17,680 --> 00:46:21,239
Speaker 2: which maybe they didn't play as well as like you

877
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:24,000
Speaker 2: would have liked heading in, but Washington State. Again, going

878
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:26,040
Speaker 2: back to what we were talking about before, they're a

879
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:27,719
Speaker 2: better team than we thought they were going to be.

880
00:46:28,040 --> 00:46:31,279
Speaker 2: And also you have to give Oregon credit for prevailing

881
00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:35,000
Speaker 2: in the circumstances of what became one of the wildest

882
00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:38,279
Speaker 2: fourth quarters of any game played this season. So I mean,

883
00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:40,360
Speaker 2: you at least have to tip your cap to Oregon

884
00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:42,239
Speaker 2: for that, for coming out on the right side of that.

885
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:46,360
Speaker 2: And then they whip Stanford last week, which they absolutely

886
00:46:46,360 --> 00:46:48,239
Speaker 2: should out. But it's a good mark, you know, it's

887
00:46:48,239 --> 00:46:51,480
Speaker 2: a mark of a good team. To conform to expectations

888
00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:53,040
Speaker 2: in a game like that, in a match up like that,

889
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:56,560
Speaker 2: because of course, Stanford has a couple of players that

890
00:46:56,640 --> 00:46:59,400
Speaker 2: give them a puncher's chance in a game against a

891
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:03,520
Speaker 2: superior opponent that's overlooking them, and Oregon clearly wasn't last time.

892
00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:05,960
Speaker 2: So I'm starting to trust Oregon a bit more. My

893
00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 2: numbers certainly are in this game, my numbers. This is

894
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:13,400
Speaker 2: one of my biggest discrepancies between what my opening line

895
00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:16,279
Speaker 2: is and the market's opening line. My line on this

896
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:19,240
Speaker 2: game is Oregon minus sixteen and a half. The market

897
00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:22,239
Speaker 2: opened it at ten and a half. Oregon minus ten

898
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 2: and a half. I think the market even though seems

899
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:30,600
Speaker 2: like the market had gotten higher and higher and higher.

900
00:47:30,600 --> 00:47:34,080
Speaker 2: On Arizona, you know the fighting jed Fishers through the

901
00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:38,400
Speaker 2: first four weeks of the season, and justifiably so, right like,

902
00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:41,560
Speaker 2: they had upset San Diego State by double digits in

903
00:47:41,640 --> 00:47:45,000
Speaker 2: the first game, they had beaten North Dakota State, who, Yeah,

904
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:48,279
Speaker 2: it's an FCS team, but a goliath of an FCS team,

905
00:47:48,680 --> 00:47:51,120
Speaker 2: a team where if they were in the FBS over

906
00:47:51,120 --> 00:47:53,959
Speaker 2: the last decade, a lot of those seasons they would

907
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:56,839
Speaker 2: have like, I'm not going out on a limb here,

908
00:47:56,880 --> 00:48:00,040
Speaker 2: they would have finished qualitatively as a top half of

909
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:03,320
Speaker 2: the FBS team. That's where the debate begins. Like me

910
00:48:03,560 --> 00:48:06,720
Speaker 2: living in Minneapolis, a lot of my buddies are NDSU fans,

911
00:48:06,719 --> 00:48:09,239
Speaker 2: so like they'll argue with you till you're blue, until

912
00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:11,719
Speaker 2: they're blue in the face. That NDY issue could like

913
00:48:11,760 --> 00:48:14,799
Speaker 2: hang in the Big ten, maybe not compete certainly, but

914
00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:17,759
Speaker 2: like that that they would still be making balls there.

915
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:20,080
Speaker 2: Or you know, if they went to the MAC what

916
00:48:20,160 --> 00:48:21,960
Speaker 2: you know what what they just absolutely wiped the floor

917
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:25,840
Speaker 2: of people. I think they that they would. But Arizona

918
00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:29,560
Speaker 2: had put together a pretty good resume up until last

919
00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:32,680
Speaker 2: week when there was some sharps out there that felt

920
00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:34,919
Speaker 2: that they were going to go onto Cow and upset them.

921
00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:37,600
Speaker 2: And the game did not go as well for Arizona

922
00:48:37,640 --> 00:48:39,919
Speaker 2: as some of those initial ones had, where they were,

923
00:48:40,080 --> 00:48:43,759
Speaker 2: you know, sort of going above expectations. And in this one,

924
00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:46,400
Speaker 2: this is going to provide an even stiffer test for

925
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:50,680
Speaker 2: them because of the athletes that Oregon has jud Fish

926
00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:56,680
Speaker 2: labored over the offseason in attacking with aggression, the transfer

927
00:48:56,760 --> 00:49:00,080
Speaker 2: portal trying and and and also I will say that

928
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:02,120
Speaker 2: his high school class because he signed a top twenty

929
00:49:02,120 --> 00:49:05,400
Speaker 2: five high school class, but he was looking for projectable

930
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:09,120
Speaker 2: athletic type guys to fit into the formation with a

931
00:49:09,280 --> 00:49:13,440
Speaker 2: nod to matchups like this. He has brought the talent

932
00:49:13,520 --> 00:49:18,600
Speaker 2: level Jetfish of Arizona way up in relativity to what

933
00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:21,440
Speaker 2: we usually expect from a year to year basis, but

934
00:49:21,920 --> 00:49:24,640
Speaker 2: he is still now he's trying to build up to

935
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:28,080
Speaker 2: at least not be embarrassed in that regard against a

936
00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:31,600
Speaker 2: team like Oregon where you're putting athletes in on islands

937
00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:34,920
Speaker 2: and you just can't trust them whatever. Arizona is not

938
00:49:35,080 --> 00:49:38,480
Speaker 2: quite there yet. And I again, I'm surprised that the

939
00:49:38,520 --> 00:49:43,439
Speaker 2: market is still not that it's not that I think

940
00:49:43,440 --> 00:49:46,480
Speaker 2: the market should be out on Arizona for losing that

941
00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:49,080
Speaker 2: one game, because I actually think Cal's better this year

942
00:49:49,080 --> 00:49:52,400
Speaker 2: than they've been, like, you know, like that's you know whatever,

943
00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:56,920
Speaker 2: but that the market did not toggle Arizona down a

944
00:49:56,920 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 2: bit more than they did. It seems like we're still

945
00:49:59,560 --> 00:50:03,160
Speaker 2: getting that bullishness. And meanwhile, we're still getting a little

946
00:50:03,160 --> 00:50:06,759
Speaker 2: bit of doubt towards Oregon, where at least me personally,

947
00:50:07,239 --> 00:50:11,279
Speaker 2: I feel like Oregon has addressed that doubt since and

948
00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 2: who knows I mean maybe for some people, not only

949
00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:17,200
Speaker 2: are they the sort of not acknowledging what Oregon has

950
00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:20,399
Speaker 2: done since that Georgia loss, but they are now sort

951
00:50:20,400 --> 00:50:24,640
Speaker 2: of compounding it with Oh, Georgia struggled against Kent State

952
00:50:24,719 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 2: and Missouri the last two weeks, and so you know,

953
00:50:27,800 --> 00:50:30,080
Speaker 2: this Oregon team that I already didn't want to trust,

954
00:50:30,480 --> 00:50:32,040
Speaker 2: that was the team that they got whipped by, and

955
00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:35,319
Speaker 2: they're clearly not ires. You know, like, however you would

956
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:37,719
Speaker 2: justify that to yourself. I don't buy into that line

957
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:41,840
Speaker 2: of thinking though, Like I qualitatively, Oregon has several steps

958
00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:44,319
Speaker 2: ahead of Arizona. I think they're going to provide him

959
00:50:44,360 --> 00:50:46,680
Speaker 2: with some matchup problems as well. This is a line

960
00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:50,040
Speaker 2: that I would expect to be closer to fourteen come

961
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:53,439
Speaker 2: kickoff time. I'm surprised that it opened up where it did,

962
00:50:53,520 --> 00:50:56,239
Speaker 2: but I do expect the market to correct that and

963
00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:58,919
Speaker 2: to bring that line closer to what my ad Justice

964
00:50:58,960 --> 00:51:00,600
Speaker 2: line is. I don't think it's get all the way

965
00:51:00,640 --> 00:51:02,520
Speaker 2: up to what my number is by the time kickof

966
00:51:02,560 --> 00:51:05,040
Speaker 2: is sixteen and a half. So there could be value

967
00:51:05,040 --> 00:51:06,520
Speaker 2: for Oregon better throughout the week.

968
00:51:07,480 --> 00:51:10,000
Speaker 1: All right, Well, thora that is going to wrap it up.

969
00:51:10,040 --> 00:51:11,920
Speaker 1: Here once again, if people want to check out the

970
00:51:11,960 --> 00:51:14,680
Speaker 1: rest of your work for the week ahead, where are

971
00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:15,520
Speaker 1: they going to want to go?

972
00:51:16,360 --> 00:51:19,000
Speaker 2: You go on my Twitter at thor ku or go

973
00:51:19,120 --> 00:51:22,239
Speaker 2: to Betting pros is where all the columns drop that

974
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:25,359
Speaker 2: I do between the power rankings that will be out

975
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:28,239
Speaker 2: whenever you're listening to this, they'll be out on the

976
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:33,480
Speaker 2: site early week notes, injury notes, coaching notes. I'll be

977
00:51:33,560 --> 00:51:36,759
Speaker 2: jumping into the Carl Durrell firing in that column this week,

978
00:51:36,800 --> 00:51:39,600
Speaker 2: and then going into some of the injuries, like you know,

979
00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:42,480
Speaker 2: I mean again with college football not having the injury report.

980
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:46,440
Speaker 2: That's something that for the first time people in Minneapolis

981
00:51:46,480 --> 00:51:52,719
Speaker 2: got furious about yesterday because mo Ibraheim, the Minnesota superstar

982
00:51:52,800 --> 00:51:58,400
Speaker 2: running back who nobody nationally or locally had reported anything

983
00:51:58,520 --> 00:52:01,319
Speaker 2: was wrong with. Mo Ibraheim was ruled out from the

984
00:52:01,360 --> 00:52:05,520
Speaker 2: Purdue game like fifteen minutes before a kickoff. And so

985
00:52:06,040 --> 00:52:09,360
Speaker 2: you know, in that column, we can't get college football, unfortunately,

986
00:52:09,440 --> 00:52:11,360
Speaker 2: to change and to allow us to put out the

987
00:52:11,400 --> 00:52:13,919
Speaker 2: injury apart. We talked about this before with the hip

988
00:52:14,080 --> 00:52:16,279
Speaker 2: with regards to the hippolas and stuff like that, but

989
00:52:16,800 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 2: in my column, I try to go as deep as

990
00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:22,440
Speaker 2: I can, as far as finding updated injury information of

991
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:27,000
Speaker 2: unexpected scratches, what are the statuses of those guys? Is

992
00:52:27,040 --> 00:52:29,200
Speaker 2: that going to affect the line coming up? Injuries that

993
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:32,440
Speaker 2: occurred on Saturday or Friday or Thursday if it was

994
00:52:32,480 --> 00:52:35,040
Speaker 2: a game then and how that could affect the line,

995
00:52:35,080 --> 00:52:37,160
Speaker 2: the prognost to those guys and stuff like that, and

996
00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:39,960
Speaker 2: then of course the coaching changes. And then also games

997
00:52:39,960 --> 00:52:42,640
Speaker 2: that I'm looking at where I think you can get

998
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:45,120
Speaker 2: line value early in the week by betting them because

999
00:52:45,120 --> 00:52:47,120
Speaker 2: they're games that I expect the lines to move during

1000
00:52:47,160 --> 00:52:47,439
Speaker 2: the week.

1001
00:52:48,080 --> 00:52:49,960
Speaker 1: All right, And of course you can also catch your

1002
00:52:50,040 --> 00:52:53,359
Speaker 1: podcast on Wednesday with Scott Bogman for Betting Pros, where

1003
00:52:53,400 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 1: you guys break down the week ahead and do not

1004
00:52:56,320 --> 00:53:00,160
Speaker 1: miss the Saturday morning live stream ten am East in

1005
00:53:00,320 --> 00:53:03,080
Speaker 1: time each and every week you and Mike Farrell going

1006
00:53:03,160 --> 00:53:07,359
Speaker 1: over everything that anyone needs to know, asking getting any

1007
00:53:07,440 --> 00:53:10,439
Speaker 1: questions from the chat in a live stream to break

1008
00:53:10,440 --> 00:53:13,160
Speaker 1: down the entire Saturday slate. But guys, that is gonna

1009
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:16,040
Speaker 1: do it for us today. Be sure to check back

1010
00:53:16,080 --> 00:53:17,880
Speaker 1: next week and let's cash some tickets.