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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Day baq At podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify

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Speaker 1: or wherever you listen. It's Tuesday, the twelfth of March

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Speaker 1: in London. I'm Caroline Hepka.

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Speaker 2: And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today, Bloomberg learns that

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Speaker 2: Rupert Murdoch's News Corp is eyeing a joint bid for

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Speaker 2: The Telegraph with the owner of the Daily Mail.

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Speaker 1: JP Morgan CEO Jamie Darman warns the risk of a

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Speaker 1: US recession is not off the table.

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Speaker 2: Plus building political capital. The former Credit Swite CEO Tijantiam

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Speaker 2: says he wants to run for president of Ivory Coast.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 2: Rupert Murdoch's NewsCorp is eyeing a joint bid for the

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Speaker 2: Telegraph newspaper. Bloomberg has learned that the firm has held

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Speaker 2: talks with the Daily Mail owners about a combined offer

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Speaker 2: alongside UAE backed investment fund Redbird. Imi Are Reporter to

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Speaker 2: a Bio has the details.

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Speaker 3: The fate of one of the UK's most famous newspapers

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Speaker 3: has been in question for months now. A new joint

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Speaker 3: ownership proposal is gaining momentum given concerns over foreign state

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Speaker 3: ownership over UK news organization. According to people familiar with

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Speaker 3: the matter, Rupert Murdock is teaming up with Jonathan Harmsworth,

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Speaker 3: controller of the Daily Mail and General Trust, to form

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Speaker 3: a joint structure. The plans would still include UAE backed

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Speaker 3: Redbird i am I, but would allocate the vehicle a

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Speaker 3: smaller stake, which could ease the concerns of British politicians

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Speaker 3: who raise doubts about foreign control of the outlet, but

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Speaker 3: it's far from a done deal. Hedge fund manager Paul

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Speaker 3: Marshall could be excluded from the joint proposition. The bidders

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Speaker 3: declined to comment. In London, tewa Adebayo Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: Radio Jamie Diamond says the FAD should wait before cutting

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Speaker 1: interest rates, even if it risks a recession. The JP

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Speaker 1: Morgan CEO put the odds of a US soft landing

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Speaker 1: at forty percent, saying he's less optimistic than Global Markets.

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Speaker 1: Aerial Investments founder John Rodgers is on the more hopeful side.

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Speaker 4: I think J.

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Speaker 5: Powell and the FED have done an excellent job getting

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Speaker 5: back on track once they realized that deflation wasn't transitory,

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Speaker 5: and they had to get serious about it. I think

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Speaker 5: they're doing all the right things, and I have a

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Speaker 5: lot of confidence that the year from now rache will

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Speaker 5: be synically higher. We haven't gone into a recession. We've

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Speaker 5: really been able to balance everything in a very very

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Speaker 5: effective way.

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Speaker 1: Diamond is more wary of the data than John Rodgers

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Speaker 1: that you've just heard there. He says that economic indicators

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Speaker 1: have been distorted by COVID nineteen and he takes them

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Speaker 1: with a grain of salt. Meanwhile, a key US inflation

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Speaker 1: print is due out late today. Bloomberg Economics expects headline

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Speaker 1: CPI inflation for February to accelerate by four tenths of

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Speaker 1: one percent. That's three point one percent year on year.

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Speaker 2: The European Central Bank is leaning against any immediate change

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Speaker 2: in the amount of money lenders need to park with

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Speaker 2: it interest free. Bloomberg understands that a push to increase

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Speaker 2: the so called minimum reserve requirement above its current level

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Speaker 2: has failed to gain traction. Lenders currently need to hold

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Speaker 2: one percent of certain liabilities, mostly customer deposits, at the ECB.

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Speaker 2: In July of last year, policymakers decided to stop paying

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Speaker 2: interest on those holdings.

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Speaker 1: Russia is beginning to gain the advantage in Ukraine. According

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Speaker 1: to America's top intelligence officials. In the third year of

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Speaker 1: the invasion, Ukraine's troops are struggling to overcome a shortage

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Speaker 1: of ammunition and personnel, a mid a stalled sixty one

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Speaker 1: billion dollar aid package from the United States. Speaking to

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Speaker 1: the Senate Intelligence Committee, the CIA Director William Burns set

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Speaker 1: out what he expects to happen if Ukraine is not

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Speaker 1: supplied with more military assistance.

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Speaker 6: Ukraine is likely to lose ground and probably significant, significant

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Speaker 6: ground in twenty twenty four, you know in the Battle

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Speaker 6: of Abdivka, which you know, in which which forced a

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Speaker 6: rush withdrawal of Ukrainian forces just a couple of days before.

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Speaker 6: I was in Kiev, and this last visit the consequences

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Speaker 6: so that you know when you senior Ukrainian partner described

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Speaker 6: what happened to me, he said that, you know, our

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Speaker 6: men fought as long and as hard as they could.

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Speaker 6: We ran out of ammunition and the Russians just kept coming.

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Speaker 1: William Burns speaking, he added that the Ukrainians are not

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Speaker 1: running out of courage and tenacity, They're running out of ammunition.

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Speaker 1: The comments come as President Zelenski said that his troops

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Speaker 1: had blocked Moscow's latest offensive and that they are stabilizing

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Speaker 1: the front line. That is, despite reports of Russian progress

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Speaker 1: in the east of the country.

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Speaker 2: The former Credits CEO tadantiam says he's planning a presidential

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Speaker 2: bid in Ivory Coast. The sixty one year old former

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Speaker 2: banker left the country after a coup in nineteen ninety

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Speaker 2: nine and went on to become the first black executive

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Speaker 2: to lead a European bank. He's calling for a greater

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Speaker 2: focus on the pension fund industry in Ivory Coast to

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Speaker 2: encourage more savings. Now at a moment. We'll get more

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Speaker 2: in the future of the Telegraph newspaper here in the

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Speaker 2: UK and dig into the detail of Jamie Diamond's comments

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Speaker 2: about the US economy ahead of today's CPI print. But first,

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Speaker 2: what can magazine covers tell us about the stock market?

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Speaker 2: This is a great piece written by one of our

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Speaker 2: colleagues that caught my eye this morning. So there's been

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Speaker 2: a series of magazine covers talking about the record heights

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Speaker 2: and stocks. So we Barrens at the weekend with their

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Speaker 2: headline bet on the Bull. The Economist had on recently

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Speaker 2: as well, with the Bull on its cover too, asking

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Speaker 2: how high markets can go. This comes with what's known

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Speaker 2: as the magazine cover curse. Now, this is a contrary

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Speaker 2: indicator created by the analyst Paul McCray Montgomery. It's a

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Speaker 2: starkly being considered a signal that an investing trend is

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Speaker 2: reaching an end. The idea being is that if magazine

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Speaker 2: editors have spotted.

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Speaker 1: It, yes, yes, it's over look I still think, I

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Speaker 1: mean the question is justified. Yes, but maybe the magazines

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Speaker 1: are getting to it pretty late. I mean, the europe

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Speaker 1: scenes a strong starts of the year, but even a

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Speaker 1: lot of the investors that we've spoken to are still

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Speaker 1: optimistic about kind of European stocks. But yeah, it's a

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Speaker 1: good piece on the terminal this morning.

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Speaker 2: Now to more on the future of the Telegraph newspaper,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg has learned that News Corp And the owners of

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Speaker 2: the Daily Mail have held talks about a potential joint

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Speaker 2: bid for the title with the UAE backed investment fund

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Speaker 2: Redbird IMI. This as some MPs have raised concerns about

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Speaker 2: foreign control of the newspaper, and several investigations have stole

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Speaker 2: a planned takeover. Our UK politics supporter James Wilcock joins

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Speaker 2: us with the details. James, can you tell us first

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Speaker 2: of all, who is this new potential consortium and what

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Speaker 2: do we know about their bid?

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Speaker 7: Well, so there are a lot of players jockey around here, Stephen,

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Speaker 7: so forgive me if it gets a bit messy. But

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Speaker 7: Redbird already have an offering and that's currently tied up

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Speaker 7: in a lot of government oversight. So Bloomberg has learned

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Speaker 7: that some of the original people who are interested in

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Speaker 7: this bid have started to pull together. We're looking at

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Speaker 7: people like the Daily Mail General Trust, which owns the

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Speaker 7: places like The Mail, the I, the Metro, the new

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Speaker 7: signed sort of big media realization News Corp owned Biobvious

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Speaker 7: part owned by Rupert Murdoch, and they are looking to

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Speaker 7: maybe try and dilute some of Redbird steak for an

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Speaker 7: undisclosed down the amount of money, but we could directe

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Speaker 7: Redbird stake as the as twenty five percent we do

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Speaker 7: another steak and a way of ameliorating some of the

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Speaker 7: government pressure around this and also potentially having a jointly

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Speaker 7: owned sort of future of the Telegraph and it kind

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Speaker 7: of maybe everyone can be happy. Everyone gets a slice

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Speaker 7: of the pie kind of deal.

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Speaker 1: Okay. Remind us of the background that why have politicians

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Speaker 1: become involved in the future of the telegraph anyway?

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Speaker 7: What is it that be hard to imagine the future

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Speaker 7: where they weren't involved. Caroline is sort of response to this,

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Speaker 7: like the Telegraph is a Conservative Party organ you know,

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Speaker 7: ministers appear on it daily. They often get the big

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Speaker 7: scoops on sort of large announcements. It's also where kind

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Speaker 7: of the future they're concerned about is argued, and with

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Speaker 7: many looking to kind of what might come after issues,

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Speaker 7: So in a hypothetical general action that has to happen

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Speaker 7: in the next up twelve months or so, many are

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Speaker 7: seeing this as a national security issue and those are

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Speaker 7: their words, not mine. And so you have big Tory

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Speaker 7: Party heres like William Haig, the former sort of leader

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Speaker 7: of the Conservative Party writing in to sort of Oliver

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Speaker 7: Dowd and Lucy Fraser the cult section in Defuty Prime

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Speaker 7: Minister saying need to take an active role in this.

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Speaker 7: You have Ritchie So potentially looking at sort of a

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Speaker 7: veto that's been put into legislation and basically saying that

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Speaker 7: the Telegraph is equivalent to a national security item and

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Speaker 7: needs to be treated as such with a vita right

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Speaker 7: as you would almost like Huawei and National Telecoms infrastructure.

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Speaker 2: James, This is happening at a time and it sort

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Speaker 2: of goes back to what we're talking about a moment ago.

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Speaker 2: Newspapers are falling circulation, there's arguably of less relevance in

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Speaker 2: the discourse. Why should we care about this deal?

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Speaker 7: Well, but for that, I think it's worth starting with

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Speaker 7: what redbirds plan for the business would be. They want

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Speaker 7: to take over, strip out some of the assets, invest

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Speaker 7: a lot of money. This is a big foreign investment

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Speaker 7: sort of story, and then take the model that Margins

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Speaker 7: had being a center left website and apply it to

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Speaker 7: the center right in America and so grow the audience.

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Speaker 7: So from a bullish non cynical case here, this is

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Speaker 7: foreign direct investment taking a UK keystone industry, a legacy

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Speaker 7: title and globalizing it. It could be great for some

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Speaker 7: of the reports, it'd be great for the editorial. It

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Speaker 7: could be a big UK business globalized. That's the bullish case. Yes,

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Speaker 7: let me get some citizen out there, which is this

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Speaker 7: is a foreign owned company like red Bird is sort

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Speaker 7: of backed by UA money potentially taking interest in a

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Speaker 7: UK based legacy title and selling it here. It's worth

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Speaker 7: saying though they already owned Man City sort of the

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Speaker 7: shape Man saw who was backing ue There was already

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Speaker 7: so many foreign assets in the UK. So the question

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Speaker 7: here is why the Telegraph, What in particular does this

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Speaker 7: media asset give to the UK And also as a

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Speaker 7: country that is desperate to encourage foreign direct investment. If

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Speaker 7: you listen to ki Star Vistas Sunak, they want growth,

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Speaker 7: they want business investment, they want foreign investors coming here.

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Speaker 7: Where is this line that we're drawing about what needs

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Speaker 7: to be safeguarded and what doesn't and under what criteria?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: No, absolutely one can understand, you know, what does it

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Speaker 1: apply to and when? But I think the underlying issue

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Speaker 1: also is with discourse, free press in the UK and

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Speaker 1: the idea of whether or not, and the debate around

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Speaker 1: democracy and who gets a right to speak and what

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Speaker 1: sort of control there is from a country you know

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Speaker 1: that has less freedom of press. Obviously, James, thank you

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Speaker 1: so much for being with us UK politics with water,

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Speaker 1: James Wallcock, Now let's get more than on the comments

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Speaker 1: also from Jamie Diamond that he wouldn't take the prospect

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Speaker 1: of a recession in the US off the table, and

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Speaker 1: that the Federal Reserve should wait before it cuts interest rates.

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Speaker 1: That's ahead, of course, of today's USCPI data. Our Economy

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Speaker 1: and Government editor Jill Ditis is with us once again

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Speaker 1: to discuss this. Jill, good morning. How much of an

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Speaker 1: outlier is Jamie Diamond then with these comments on the

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Speaker 1: US to.

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Speaker 4: Me, Well, Caroline, I think he actually sort of tried

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Speaker 4: to spell it out. He was saying that, you know,

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Speaker 4: he he thinks the chance of a soft landing in

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Speaker 4: the next year or two is about half of the

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Speaker 4: prevailing view of maybe a seventy or eighty percent chance.

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Speaker 4: So I think significantly more or yeah, significantly more pessimistic

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Speaker 4: than maybe the broad consensuses. It's really interesting to hear

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Speaker 4: Jamie Diamond say this. I think, you know, mostly because

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Speaker 4: you know, there's expectations for a soft landing have actually

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Speaker 4: been building, at least in the last you know, a

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Speaker 4: few weeks, especially after we got that fairly favorable labor

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Speaker 4: data last Friday, you know, telling us that there was

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Speaker 4: a bit of an uptick in the unemployment rate. We

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Speaker 4: saw some other wage numbers that looked at least encouraging

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Speaker 4: for sort of a gradual cooling off in the market

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Speaker 4: right now. So yeah, I mean running against the grain

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Speaker 4: a little bit there by you know, by highlighting the

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Speaker 4: comments here from Jamie Diamond.

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Speaker 2: What are then the risk factors that we should be

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Speaker 2: considering in light of Jamie Diamond's common to this, as

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Speaker 2: you say, prevailing idea now that the the US is

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Speaker 2: having for a soft landing.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, well, Steven, I think that you know, it's similar

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Speaker 4: to you know, how we've been kind of gauging a

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Speaker 4: lot of these economic indicators over the last what year,

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Speaker 4: year and a half or so? Right, is this idea

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Speaker 4: of you know, what is you know, the FED doing

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Speaker 4: to sort of bring down inflation? How effective is that is?

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Speaker 4: How effective is that actually? And then what does the

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Speaker 4: transmission process for monetary policy actually look like here for

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Speaker 4: the Fed? I mean, you know, we go toward this

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Speaker 4: inflation data that we're expecting for February in just a

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Speaker 4: few hours from now, how hot will that be? I think,

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Speaker 4: you know, the January reading was quite a bit of

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Speaker 4: a surprise to the upside there, and there's you know

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Speaker 4: a lot of concern about whether the Fed, you know, one,

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Speaker 4: whether the FED is ultimately done enough to address some

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Speaker 4: of these concerns around inflation. But then also you know

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Speaker 4: where exactly they come in with this you know, strategy

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Speaker 4: to eventually cut rates, hold them, you know where they

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Speaker 4: are for now. I think it's been you know, really

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Speaker 4: difficult to kind of tell, just because over the past

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Speaker 4: year and a half or so, the economy has continued

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Speaker 4: to surprise you the upside. We've continued to see month

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Speaker 4: after month after month of data, you know, showing a

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Speaker 4: stronger than expected you know, consumer in America, we've seen

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Speaker 4: you know, stronger than expected resilience in the labor market.

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Speaker 4: So it's been you know, kind of created this this

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Speaker 4: really interesting issue where you know, it's it's it's kind

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Speaker 4: of hard to tell when exactly you know, this down

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Speaker 4: turn is ultimately you know, maybe going to gather pace.

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Speaker 1: If it does, yeah, absolutely, Well, what more will we

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Speaker 1: learn then from today's cp I print the inflation data.

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Speaker 1: Expecting a slight slowdown in the core number? What else

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Speaker 1: are you going to be watching out for?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think there's a few things to really look

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Speaker 4: for in this data, Caroline. I mean, yeah, yes, I

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Speaker 4: think that that cooling off and that core number ultimately

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Speaker 4: likely driven by falling prices for some goods maybe you know,

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Speaker 4: new and used cars. I think is what Bloomberg Economics

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Speaker 4: is looking at as the primary driver there. But the

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Speaker 4: other thing to look for, and this might be a

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Speaker 4: little bit technical, but I think sort of speaks to

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Speaker 4: concerns over the stickiness of housing inflation in the US

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Speaker 4: right now, is this this component of the index called

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Speaker 4: owner's equivalent rent that we saw a really unusual spike

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Speaker 4: in in January that ultimately, you know, resulted in the

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Speaker 4: Bureau of Libry Statistics in the US, you know, saying

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Speaker 4: that there were some changes in how some data sources

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Speaker 4: were weighted, and there's been a lot of concern about

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Speaker 4: whether that sort of speaks to stickier than expected housing inflation.

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Speaker 4: I would be looking for, you know, any you know,

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Speaker 4: sort of clarity that we get on that front, for

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Speaker 4: at least, you know, some you know, some clarification over

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Speaker 4: the usefulness of that component in this index.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and of course all of that ahead of the

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Speaker 2: Federal Reserve meeting on the twentieth as well. Jill Desis,

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Speaker 2: our Economy and Government editor. Thank you very much for

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Speaker 2: bringing us up to date today where it's saying that

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