WEBVTT - The Bear Was Poked With Maria Konnikova 0:00:15.356 --> 0:00:22.956 Pushkin. Hello everyone, I'm backed with the Visionist Histories ombusman 0:00:23.516 --> 0:00:28.036 Mariya Kanikova. This is our third round and she's here 0:00:28.476 --> 0:00:30.396 to grill me on the six part series we just 0:00:30.436 --> 0:00:33.556 wrapped up on Guns in America. This is a mail 0:00:33.556 --> 0:00:37.036 bag in the truest sense of the word. We received 0:00:37.036 --> 0:00:40.716 an unprecedented amount of listener mail in this series, and 0:00:40.756 --> 0:00:44.356 Maria's come prepared with a whole slew of your feedback. 0:00:45.356 --> 0:00:48.076 Some nice, that's so nice. 0:00:48.196 --> 0:00:53.436 Yeah, well, I am surprised at how much nice we got, 0:00:53.996 --> 0:00:59.156 considering the subject of this particular season of Revisionist History. 0:00:59.396 --> 0:01:03.996 To be perfectly honest, so let's start with something really 0:01:04.116 --> 0:01:05.156 nice and positive. 0:01:05.316 --> 0:01:06.716 Get the good stuff up takes. 0:01:06.556 --> 0:01:10.116 Exactly exactly, you know the praise sound which, right, that's 0:01:10.116 --> 0:01:14.996 the feedback sandwich. But you had a relatively light episode 0:01:14.996 --> 0:01:21.236 in there about gun smoke, and someone wrote in being 0:01:21.316 --> 0:01:24.076 a little bit worried that you got the murder rate 0:01:24.196 --> 0:01:29.596 wrong when you calculated the murders, which I bring this, yes, 0:01:29.636 --> 0:01:34.596 all right, So basically you had this episode where you 0:01:34.636 --> 0:01:37.716 talked about the show that ran for how many years? 0:01:38.356 --> 0:01:44.836 Twenty years, right, almost twenty years, and your producer Tali 0:01:44.876 --> 0:01:51.396 Emlin actually went through several seasons of it and calculated 0:01:51.636 --> 0:01:54.476 what the murder rate would be, and you found that 0:01:54.596 --> 0:01:58.516 it would actually, even though it's insane, it is actually 0:01:58.676 --> 0:02:04.476 eighty times higher than what it would be in any 0:02:04.796 --> 0:02:08.636 city in the United States today. Yes, but it turns 0:02:08.676 --> 0:02:12.596 out that you might have actually undercounted. According to this listener. 0:02:12.876 --> 0:02:16.956 So here's the letter, the murder rate in Dodge City 0:02:17.236 --> 0:02:20.956 was even worse than you calculated. You compared a season 0:02:20.956 --> 0:02:24.516 of the show to an annual rate of modern day cities. However, 0:02:24.676 --> 0:02:28.116 each episode probably takes place in a single day or 0:02:28.156 --> 0:02:32.916 so the entire season probably only covered a couple months 0:02:32.956 --> 0:02:36.716 of time. That would make the annual rate five to 0:02:36.916 --> 0:02:41.036 six times worse than you already calculated. So what do 0:02:41.076 --> 0:02:41.716 we think about that? 0:02:42.516 --> 0:02:47.356 Okay, I get where this critique is coming from. I 0:02:47.356 --> 0:02:49.636 think some merit to it. I would point out, though, 0:02:49.716 --> 0:02:52.236 when I asked Ally about this, she says, if you 0:02:52.316 --> 0:02:54.796 look at the first two seasons, so we have an 0:02:54.836 --> 0:02:57.756 episode said in summer, we have one in winter, we 0:02:57.796 --> 0:03:01.556 have one on Christmas, We've got a blizzard. So they 0:03:01.556 --> 0:03:05.756 are kind of implying that what we're seeing unfolding in 0:03:05.756 --> 0:03:10.276 the mythical Dodge City is real passage of time and 0:03:10.316 --> 0:03:13.036 not a series of episodes. And also, by the way, 0:03:13.716 --> 0:03:18.316 the actors get older, right, so you know when they 0:03:18.596 --> 0:03:21.356 when this starts, Matt Dilan's a young man. When Gun 0:03:21.396 --> 0:03:23.596 Smoke ins, Matt Dylan is no longer a young man. 0:03:24.436 --> 0:03:26.556 So maybe the best way to say this is that, 0:03:27.996 --> 0:03:30.236 you know, I think we should probably split the difference 0:03:30.316 --> 0:03:34.476 and say that we were being excessively generous to the 0:03:34.476 --> 0:03:37.716 fictional Dodge City in suggesting that their murder rate was 0:03:37.756 --> 0:03:42.836 only eighty times higher than the next highest American city. 0:03:44.236 --> 0:03:48.956 And uh, you know, maybe it should. The accurate number 0:03:48.956 --> 0:03:50.276 is one sixty. 0:03:51.236 --> 0:03:54.396 That is absolutely crazy. By the way, I have never 0:03:54.436 --> 0:03:57.756 seen gun Smoke, and I had to look it up. 0:03:58.316 --> 0:04:01.636 The first time I heard of it was on your show. 0:04:02.196 --> 0:04:04.636 And I act you get for growing up in Russia. 0:04:04.676 --> 0:04:08.156 This is true. But I also had this like brain 0:04:08.276 --> 0:04:11.676 fart moment where Matt Dylan. I was like, wait, but 0:04:11.716 --> 0:04:13.196 Matt Dylan isn't that old. 0:04:14.036 --> 0:04:15.236 Oh you would think of the other man. 0:04:15.596 --> 0:04:17.796 I was thinking of the actor Matt Dylan, and so 0:04:17.996 --> 0:04:20.396 for a second I was like, wait, how is Matt 0:04:20.476 --> 0:04:22.996 Dylan in this show gun Smoke? And it was just 0:04:23.036 --> 0:04:26.076 like this this total fictional universe that I created in 0:04:26.116 --> 0:04:29.276 my head before I looked up what it actually was. 0:04:29.476 --> 0:04:33.556 Years ago, maybe thirty thirty, maybe twenty five. I'm at 0:04:33.596 --> 0:04:36.796 a party in the West Village and I realized Matt 0:04:36.796 --> 0:04:39.516 Dillon is there when he was really at the height 0:04:39.556 --> 0:04:41.236 of his fame. He's still famous, but he was very 0:04:41.916 --> 0:04:46.596 I ingratiated myself with him and spent a delightful evening. 0:04:46.596 --> 0:04:49.916 It went well past evening, I said, I spent a 0:04:49.956 --> 0:04:53.276 delightful evening in his company, and I can testify that 0:04:53.356 --> 0:04:56.116 he is everybody's charming in real life as he would 0:04:56.556 --> 0:04:58.196 as the movies was jest he would be. 0:04:58.396 --> 0:05:00.396 That's wonderful. Was he named after the show? 0:05:01.076 --> 0:05:04.196 Well, I think it's obvious he was, right, Yeah, because 0:05:04.196 --> 0:05:09.356 he kind of does. He looks not unlike the the 0:05:09.396 --> 0:05:12.476 fictional Matt Dill. Maybe his parents had a notion, but 0:05:12.556 --> 0:05:14.836 who knows either that or like just some agent gave 0:05:14.876 --> 0:05:17.356 it to him when he was nineteen years old. 0:05:17.676 --> 0:05:20.116 Well, I think I think that's amazing. And you know, 0:05:20.156 --> 0:05:21.876 to my credit, I also did not have a TV 0:05:21.956 --> 0:05:24.556 growing up, so notice, so you know, ah, we have 0:05:24.596 --> 0:05:29.436 that in common. So we did have this one lighthearted 0:05:29.596 --> 0:05:35.716 reader's email, but every other email, or at least the 0:05:35.796 --> 0:05:38.316 vast majority, were about one single episode. Do you want 0:05:38.316 --> 0:05:39.636 to care to guess which one it was? 0:05:39.716 --> 0:05:41.596 I'm going to guess it was the assault rifle. 0:05:41.316 --> 0:05:45.836 Episode, and you would have guessed correctly, it's that episode. 0:05:46.076 --> 0:05:48.236 Before you go, before you get into the let me 0:05:48.276 --> 0:05:52.356 just say that there are things you do as journalists, 0:05:52.356 --> 0:05:55.596 and you know this well, that are deliberate provocations. You 0:05:55.596 --> 0:05:58.116 do them precisely because you do think you are running 0:05:58.516 --> 0:06:03.436 counter to people's expectations and preconceptions. This would be one 0:06:03.476 --> 0:06:07.596 of those. I was poking the bear, and I guess 0:06:07.636 --> 0:06:11.796 the bear. The bear was postfair, was duly boked. 0:06:12.476 --> 0:06:15.876 Mission accomplished. So let's get into some of these letters, 0:06:15.916 --> 0:06:19.716 because when you listen to excerpts from them, you start 0:06:19.756 --> 0:06:24.676 realizing that it's as if people listened to two different episodes, 0:06:24.996 --> 0:06:28.356 depending on where they were coming from to begin with 0:06:29.036 --> 0:06:33.516 their own opinions about gun control colored what they heard 0:06:33.596 --> 0:06:37.596 you say and how they experienced your interviews to a 0:06:37.636 --> 0:06:40.276 shocking degree. I mean, actually not shocking. I'm not at 0:06:40.316 --> 0:06:44.756 all shocked, but it's crazy reading these and seeing just 0:06:45.156 --> 0:06:50.836 the opposite responses. So they will write things like, let's 0:06:50.876 --> 0:06:53.836 see the gun rights guy was more genial than the 0:06:53.836 --> 0:06:58.316 gun control guy, but he was just as misleading. All 0:06:58.356 --> 0:07:01.276 he did was smile while he made you look left 0:07:01.636 --> 0:07:04.836 when you should have looked to the right. And then 0:07:04.836 --> 0:07:08.196 they have all of these figures behind that saying that, oh, well, 0:07:08.196 --> 0:07:11.636 they're saying that, you know, he is saying that it 0:07:11.676 --> 0:07:15.636 only takes three seconds to do this, but mass shooters 0:07:16.076 --> 0:07:18.436 are there's going to be so much going on and 0:07:18.516 --> 0:07:20.476 his math is wrong and this is wrong, and that 0:07:20.676 --> 0:07:26.236 is wrong, and they say that you were led astray. 0:07:26.636 --> 0:07:30.676 But then you have someone saying, Malcolm, you know, I'm 0:07:30.756 --> 0:07:33.516 so proud of you for finally seeing the light now 0:07:33.556 --> 0:07:36.436 and now I'm quoting. Now, let's remember that the problem 0:07:36.516 --> 0:07:41.556 in America is a murder problem, not a weapon problem. 0:07:42.076 --> 0:07:46.516 So you have two very very different points of view, right, 0:07:46.836 --> 0:07:50.996 and let's talk about that. How can people walk away 0:07:51.836 --> 0:07:55.436 from the same episode, listening to the same data with 0:07:55.796 --> 0:07:58.356 just completely opposite perspectives. 0:07:58.436 --> 0:08:00.676 Well, I mean, it shouldn't come as a surprise that 0:08:02.356 --> 0:08:07.476 people's when people listen to something that they feel strongly about, 0:08:07.556 --> 0:08:12.916 they have a subjective reading, nor, you know, nor does 0:08:12.956 --> 0:08:16.076 it surprise me now after thirty years of writing books, 0:08:16.476 --> 0:08:21.116 that people don't read or listen to the end. You know, 0:08:21.156 --> 0:08:24.956 I wrote a book called my second book, Blink, was 0:08:25.276 --> 0:08:29.716 a book that looked critically at When I say critically, 0:08:29.796 --> 0:08:32.756 the examine wrote the pros and cons of snap judgments, 0:08:33.356 --> 0:08:36.236 But you had to keep reading. It started out on 0:08:36.276 --> 0:08:39.996 the pros and then as I dug deeper got interested 0:08:39.996 --> 0:08:44.316 in the cons. The number of people who either supported 0:08:44.796 --> 0:08:47.036 or loved that book or hated that book because they 0:08:47.116 --> 0:08:51.796 perceived it as being a book about celebrating snap judgments 0:08:52.156 --> 0:08:54.596 was limitless. You know, anytime you tell a story that 0:08:54.596 --> 0:08:57.196 has a twist, you're going to leave some portion of 0:08:57.276 --> 0:09:00.076 people along the way. And I think this episode is 0:09:00.076 --> 0:09:03.076 a proof of that. Like basically where I end up 0:09:03.116 --> 0:09:05.716 remember is you know, is a gun is a gun 0:09:05.756 --> 0:09:09.396 as a gun. Parsing these these distinctions between gun is 0:09:09.436 --> 0:09:13.596 a pointless exercise that leads you away from the central issue, 0:09:13.636 --> 0:09:17.476 which is that having lots of lethal weapons floating around 0:09:17.716 --> 0:09:20.636 in a society is not the best idea. 0:09:21.276 --> 0:09:24.876 Right. Obviously, when you were doing these interviews, you you 0:09:24.916 --> 0:09:26.436 know you want to do the interview, and you never 0:09:26.516 --> 0:09:30.116 want to You don't want to antagonize a person you're interviewing. 0:09:30.156 --> 0:09:32.396 In the middle of the interview, especially when they're holding 0:09:32.396 --> 0:09:36.036 a gun. But I'm actually just curious from a personal perspective, 0:09:36.116 --> 0:09:39.676 if if you care to comment, were you kind of 0:09:39.716 --> 0:09:44.556 were you persuaded by by these arguments so that it 0:09:44.716 --> 0:09:49.796 actually doesn't make that much of a difference, and that 0:09:49.876 --> 0:09:54.676 you you know that that we should that were barking 0:09:54.756 --> 0:09:57.076 up the wrong tree when we're looking at this guy legislation. 0:09:57.236 --> 0:10:02.236 I was there two persuasive things in the reporting a persuision. 0:10:02.596 --> 0:10:06.596 One was with my gun expert, the guy I've shot 0:10:06.596 --> 0:10:10.916 within North Carolina, Gregg Wallace. And what's persuasive about his 0:10:11.116 --> 0:10:14.996 discussion is not how fast you can shoot a semi 0:10:15.036 --> 0:10:17.436 automatic weapon versus an automatic weapon, although that is the 0:10:17.436 --> 0:10:19.956 thing is relevant. The real core issue he was getting 0:10:19.996 --> 0:10:24.596 at is said assault rifle bands don't ban assault rifles. 0:10:25.276 --> 0:10:29.516 They ban a subcategory of assault rifles which qualify for 0:10:29.556 --> 0:10:32.196 the ban not because they are more lethal, but because 0:10:32.236 --> 0:10:35.996 they have certain cosmetic features that make them unattractive or 0:10:36.116 --> 0:10:40.516 mean looking. Right, Really, what you're getting so's his function 0:10:40.716 --> 0:10:43.476 in the story is to remind us that, look, this 0:10:43.516 --> 0:10:46.476 is a bullshit exercise. You may think that an assault 0:10:46.516 --> 0:10:49.876 rifle ban bands assault rifles it does not. Right, the 0:10:49.916 --> 0:10:56.756 fundamental platform of the AR fifteen remains untouched by these bands, right. 0:10:56.796 --> 0:10:58.956 You can still use the basic weapon, you just can't 0:10:59.036 --> 0:11:02.516 use some of these accessories. That's pointing with the number 0:11:02.516 --> 0:11:06.156 two is it is not a distinction without a difference 0:11:06.236 --> 0:11:09.836 to point out that a semi automatic weapon is not 0:11:09.876 --> 0:11:13.436 the same as an automatic weapon. They are fundamentally different. 0:11:13.476 --> 0:11:17.956 And if people are under the illusion that an assault 0:11:18.476 --> 0:11:23.996 weapon is basically like a machine gun, they're wrong, right, Yeah, 0:11:24.036 --> 0:11:25.636 And that's not a trivial mistake. 0:11:26.036 --> 0:11:26.236 Right. 0:11:27.196 --> 0:11:29.476 So a lot of these as I'm reading through on 0:11:29.516 --> 0:11:31.876 this one in this one letter, a lot of them, 0:11:32.036 --> 0:11:36.636 you know, are fussing around in the kind of minor 0:11:36.716 --> 0:11:39.396 details of these distinctions, and it's just like, it's not 0:11:39.476 --> 0:11:42.516 the point. The point is like, what we're setting out 0:11:42.556 --> 0:11:44.356 to do here is not actually what we're doing A 0:11:44.836 --> 0:11:47.756 and B. This brings us to the second persuasive character 0:11:47.796 --> 0:11:50.916 in that the most persuasive character in that episode was 0:11:50.956 --> 0:11:54.156 the er doctor. Yeah, the guy in DC who had 0:11:54.196 --> 0:11:59.956 studied mass shootings and points out that the truly lethal 0:11:59.996 --> 0:12:02.116 weapon in the hands of a mass shooter is a 0:12:02.156 --> 0:12:06.396 handgun and not an assault rifle. And that's because what 0:12:06.476 --> 0:12:10.556 makes a gun lethal is not just a matter of 0:12:10.596 --> 0:12:14.436 its ballistic properties. It's a question of how it's used. 0:12:14.956 --> 0:12:17.916 And there are so many quote unquote advantages to a 0:12:17.956 --> 0:12:21.396 handgun in the way it's used that it makes it, 0:12:21.476 --> 0:12:22.996 at the end of the day, a more dangerous weapon 0:12:23.036 --> 0:12:25.836 in a mass shooting. There is a whole kind of 0:12:25.956 --> 0:12:32.356 really weird academic subculture devoted to the analysis of mass shootings, 0:12:32.436 --> 0:12:35.796 and you would be surprised how divergent those findings are 0:12:35.876 --> 0:12:40.156 from a lot of our preconceptions about what happens in 0:12:40.196 --> 0:12:40.836 a mass shooting. 0:12:41.596 --> 0:12:44.556 That's really interesting, and I actually saw that as a 0:12:44.596 --> 0:12:50.036 thread throughout this entire season of Revisionist History, just how 0:12:50.276 --> 0:12:55.076 strong identity politics and our sense of who we are 0:12:55.116 --> 0:12:58.196 and how we define ourselves is when it comes to 0:12:59.036 --> 0:13:02.076 parsing the world and those definitional issues. 0:13:02.556 --> 0:13:07.236 Yeah, the other moment, you know, in the assault Rifle episode, 0:13:07.316 --> 0:13:12.916 you know, it ends with me confronting this this anti 0:13:12.996 --> 0:13:19.076 gun lobbyist, big time opponent of the Second Amendment in Washington, 0:13:19.596 --> 0:13:22.476 and I think the reason he gets very upset, and 0:13:22.596 --> 0:13:24.796 actually we didn't even use the parts of the of 0:13:24.836 --> 0:13:27.476 the conversation where he was most upset, And I think 0:13:27.516 --> 0:13:29.076 One of the reasons he was so upset is that 0:13:30.036 --> 0:13:35.236 I was out flanking him on the left, and I 0:13:35.276 --> 0:13:37.436 was taking a more anti gun position than he was. 0:13:37.876 --> 0:13:39.796 And not only that, in order to outflank him on 0:13:39.836 --> 0:13:43.036 the left, I was using right wing arguments or right 0:13:43.036 --> 0:13:46.556 wing facts. You know that that episode is if you 0:13:46.556 --> 0:13:49.796 think about it structurally, that's what it is. It's taking 0:13:50.036 --> 0:13:53.916 arguments most commonly used on the right to draw a 0:13:53.996 --> 0:13:56.996 highly liberal conclusion. It's just confused. It's just confusing to 0:13:57.036 --> 0:13:57.316 do that. 0:13:57.836 --> 0:14:01.516 Malcolm, you have come a long way from your debating fiasco. 0:14:04.116 --> 0:14:09.116 Don't even get me started. We will be right back 0:14:09.196 --> 0:14:11.356 back more from the mailbag. 0:14:27.156 --> 0:14:31.076 All right, well, let's go back to guns, because I 0:14:31.156 --> 0:14:33.716 do want to talk about some of the other episodes. 0:14:34.236 --> 0:14:37.356 I think that one theme that we haven't touched on, 0:14:37.516 --> 0:14:42.156 but that is, you know, deeply connected to all of everything. 0:14:42.236 --> 0:14:46.356 We have been discussing, the racial and the socioeconomic underpinnings 0:14:46.396 --> 0:14:49.916 of all of this, and the fact that it's kind 0:14:49.916 --> 0:14:55.276 of woven into the fabric of the country. And you know, 0:14:55.476 --> 0:15:00.156 you you talk about in these are different episodes. There's Chicago, 0:15:00.316 --> 0:15:03.996 you know, there's there's DC, There's and you have you 0:15:04.076 --> 0:15:09.436 have Alabama. You have these very different geographically arts of 0:15:09.436 --> 0:15:15.156 the country, urban rural, and yet you have some of 0:15:15.196 --> 0:15:21.756 the exact same reasons why we have still despite all 0:15:21.836 --> 0:15:27.996 of the incredible medical stuff that's happened, and despite how 0:15:27.996 --> 0:15:30.356 many lives are saved now that wouldn't have been saved 0:15:30.356 --> 0:15:33.636 in the past, we still have these huge disparities, and 0:15:33.796 --> 0:15:36.836 we still have people dying who shouldn't be dying because 0:15:37.556 --> 0:15:40.156 either they're the wrong color, or they're in a place 0:15:40.156 --> 0:15:43.636 where they seem like they're the wrong color, or they're 0:15:43.676 --> 0:15:48.196 in a place that's so economically marginalized that you know, 0:15:48.236 --> 0:15:52.236 they can't get to a trauma center, probably because that 0:15:52.356 --> 0:15:55.796 area was the wrong color at some point, and it's 0:15:55.916 --> 0:15:59.556 just it's heartbreaking, but it's still the reality. 0:15:59.916 --> 0:16:03.876 Yeah, this reminds me of I think I'm getting this right. 0:16:04.276 --> 0:16:07.076 Something I read years ago about what is the effact 0:16:07.196 --> 0:16:11.876 What is the effect of reading enrichment programs on test 0:16:11.876 --> 0:16:16.516 score gaps between black and white kids? And reading the 0:16:16.596 --> 0:16:20.916 ritual programs increase the testcore gap. They don't decrease it, 0:16:20.956 --> 0:16:23.796 even though they're intended to decrease it. But what they 0:16:23.836 --> 0:16:26.716 do is if you give reading enrichment to someone who 0:16:26.756 --> 0:16:30.476 reads a lot, they're going to reap the most of 0:16:30.556 --> 0:16:33.356 that boost. If you give a reading enrichment to someone 0:16:33.436 --> 0:16:35.756 doesn't read much, they're not going to get much out 0:16:35.756 --> 0:16:38.116 of it because they're not reading to begin with. So 0:16:38.756 --> 0:16:41.836 something that we introduced as a way to narrow the 0:16:41.836 --> 0:16:44.316 gap ends up widening the gap, which is a reminder 0:16:44.356 --> 0:16:47.716 that not all innovations do what we have an assumption. 0:16:47.836 --> 0:16:50.956 Sometimes I think that the purpose of an innovation is 0:16:50.996 --> 0:16:53.476 to shrink the gap between the haves and have nots. 0:16:54.036 --> 0:16:57.036 This is so often violated that it's time we shelve 0:16:57.076 --> 0:17:01.836 that notion and understand that innovations are just energy. You know, 0:17:02.076 --> 0:17:04.236 they can be put to whatever use we want, and 0:17:04.276 --> 0:17:07.756 sometimes what they do is just turbocharge existing inequities. And 0:17:07.796 --> 0:17:11.796 I think Caare is an example of this exact thing. 0:17:12.476 --> 0:17:16.676 That you can't put trauma centers everywhere too expensive. You 0:17:16.676 --> 0:17:19.116 can only put them in places where you can justify 0:17:19.116 --> 0:17:22.796 them economically. And what are those places, Well, those are 0:17:22.836 --> 0:17:25.116 wealthy places. Yeah, So you put them in wealthy places, 0:17:25.116 --> 0:17:26.916 and they have the effect of making the quality of 0:17:27.676 --> 0:17:30.356 healthcare provided in wealthy places, which was already better than 0:17:30.356 --> 0:17:35.516 everyone else everywhere else, even better. Right, So when everyone 0:17:35.596 --> 0:17:37.356 who goes to a hospital gets you to for a 0:17:37.396 --> 0:17:41.636 gun shot dies. We don't notice the difference between good 0:17:41.676 --> 0:17:44.556 hospitals and bad hospitals. But when you put a trauma 0:17:44.556 --> 0:17:46.276 center in one of those places and you don't have 0:17:46.276 --> 0:17:48.516 another one, then you begin to notice it's a huge difference. 0:17:48.596 --> 0:17:48.836 Right. 0:17:49.276 --> 0:17:51.596 I was just at something when we were talking about AI, 0:17:52.516 --> 0:17:55.996 and everyone's you know, we're obviously very excited about the 0:17:56.036 --> 0:18:00.356 possibility that AI will transform all manner of things. It's 0:18:00.396 --> 0:18:05.116 really unclear whether AI lifts all boats equally, closes the 0:18:05.156 --> 0:18:07.436 gap between haves and have nots, or widens the gap. 0:18:07.476 --> 0:18:10.716 Pato halves no idea. Anyone who tells you that they 0:18:10.756 --> 0:18:13.156 know which way it'll go, doesn't you know it was 0:18:13.196 --> 0:18:13.636 fooling you. 0:18:14.316 --> 0:18:17.276 That's that's a very good point. And I mean, if 0:18:17.316 --> 0:18:19.236 I had to bet on one outcome or the other, 0:18:19.316 --> 0:18:21.276 I would say probably it's not going to lift all 0:18:21.316 --> 0:18:25.316 boats equally, just because also who's going to have access 0:18:25.396 --> 0:18:28.636 to AI, right, and who's going to have access to 0:18:28.756 --> 0:18:30.956 the technologies, and who's going to have the time to 0:18:31.036 --> 0:18:34.876 learn how to use them? Yeah, so who knows? Who knows? 0:18:35.076 --> 0:18:39.036 On that one? I'm actually an optimist, good I'm glad. Well, 0:18:39.076 --> 0:18:43.316 at least I'll say this that over time, I would 0:18:43.316 --> 0:18:49.476 expect it to close the gap. Not even so quite explicitly. 0:18:49.876 --> 0:18:52.556 It's obvious to me it lifts all boats. It's obviously 0:18:52.556 --> 0:18:55.436 in the short term, people with access to the technology 0:18:55.476 --> 0:18:58.116 will benefit the most. So I'm interested in making a 0:18:58.156 --> 0:19:00.516 medium to long term I think in medium to long 0:19:00.596 --> 0:19:03.356 term it does not merely lift all boats. If I 0:19:03.396 --> 0:19:06.996 had to put my money on something, I would say 0:19:07.076 --> 0:19:12.796 it would close the gap that the farmer in Bangladesh 0:19:13.636 --> 0:19:19.076 benefits more from AI than the than the factory farmer 0:19:19.156 --> 0:19:21.996 with fifty million dollars in equipment in Iowa. 0:19:22.716 --> 0:19:23.436 I hope you're right. 0:19:23.676 --> 0:19:25.756 These days, I'm only really optimistic about one thing, and 0:19:25.796 --> 0:19:28.076 that's it. Everything else is bad. 0:19:28.356 --> 0:19:30.476 All right, All right, well, well let's cling to that. 0:19:31.476 --> 0:19:35.476 So now back to the optimistic news of the trauma centers. 0:19:36.756 --> 0:19:39.516 But I was one of the things that I am 0:19:39.556 --> 0:19:43.276 curious about is how strongly do you actually agree with 0:19:43.316 --> 0:19:47.836 this idea of moral hazard that you raise in relation 0:19:47.996 --> 0:19:53.156 to the improvements and care, because I don't know if 0:19:53.196 --> 0:19:54.196 I actually buy that. 0:19:54.356 --> 0:19:56.876 You don't buy that. No, So the argument was that 0:19:57.436 --> 0:20:01.036 doctors have become so good at saving lives that it's 0:20:01.116 --> 0:20:04.356 relieve the pressure on the rest of society to do 0:20:04.436 --> 0:20:10.676 something real about the gunman. Exactly that if doctors had 0:20:10.716 --> 0:20:15.316 done nothing over the last fifty years, this is the counterfactual, 0:20:15.796 --> 0:20:19.596 the murder rate would be. We probably have four or 0:20:19.636 --> 0:20:21.756 five times of spending homicides in a given year. Let's 0:20:21.756 --> 0:20:23.836 say we we'd have one hundred thousand homicides as opposed 0:20:23.836 --> 0:20:28.156 to twenty thousand homicides, and at one hundred thousand, the 0:20:28.236 --> 0:20:31.636 current American policy set up, policy positions would be untenable. 0:20:31.996 --> 0:20:34.676 We would jump up and down and say enough stuff. Now, 0:20:35.476 --> 0:20:39.396 do I think that there is some truth in that? Yes. However, 0:20:40.636 --> 0:20:43.436 then I thought, after I'd finished the episode and I 0:20:43.476 --> 0:20:46.476 was writing this next book, I'm working on doing something 0:20:46.476 --> 0:20:49.956 on the opioid crisis, and I realized, Oh, we're at 0:20:49.956 --> 0:20:53.916 one hundred and twenty thousand opioid whatever it is, one 0:20:53.996 --> 0:20:57.556 hundred and ten thousand opioid deaths a year and hasn't 0:20:58.836 --> 0:21:00.676 really moved the needle. We don't even talk about it. 0:21:00.756 --> 0:21:00.996 Yep. 0:21:01.756 --> 0:21:09.716 So, and also, opioid deaths are not dissimilar to homicide 0:21:09.716 --> 0:21:12.876 deaths in a sense that it's clustered in various parts 0:21:12.876 --> 0:21:17.876 of the country, various slightly younger age groups. You know, 0:21:18.036 --> 0:21:19.996 the fact that we spend an enormous amount of time 0:21:20.636 --> 0:21:23.636 arguing about mass shootings when mass shootings are what, less 0:21:23.636 --> 0:21:26.476 than one percent of total homicide deaths in a given year, 0:21:26.796 --> 0:21:29.356 and very little time on the remaining ninety nine percent, 0:21:29.796 --> 0:21:32.756 suggests to me that maybe it wouldn't make a difference. 0:21:32.836 --> 0:21:34.476 Maybe the moral hazard thing is just a kind of 0:21:34.476 --> 0:21:40.596 intellectual nicety. The opioid thing would suggest that if it's 0:21:40.596 --> 0:21:43.636 the wrong people dying, really hard to get people upset. 0:21:44.236 --> 0:21:47.156 Yeah, I mean, that's to be perfectly honest, that's exactly 0:21:47.156 --> 0:21:49.036 what I was thinking when I was listening to this. 0:21:49.156 --> 0:21:51.516 I was saying, I actually think the moral hazard argument 0:21:51.556 --> 0:21:55.636 is bullshit, and that we wouldn't care, and that it's 0:21:55.756 --> 0:21:59.916 just these days, we also are so immune to a 0:21:59.916 --> 0:22:02.516 lot of this stuff where you're just like, oh, yeah, 0:22:02.716 --> 0:22:06.116 you know, I guess more people are dying, and. 0:22:07.356 --> 0:22:10.036 Here's the so here's the let me make a let 0:22:10.076 --> 0:22:13.396 me return, let me do another backflip and say, okay, 0:22:13.436 --> 0:22:17.916 here's here's here's a here's a moral hazard argument, and 0:22:18.116 --> 0:22:22.196 maybe that it's a it's a mechanism argument. So moral 0:22:22.196 --> 0:22:25.876 hazard is as a term is used most frequently in. 0:22:25.836 --> 0:22:26.996 The insurance industry. 0:22:27.356 --> 0:22:30.196 If I ensure you against a risk, I make your 0:22:31.596 --> 0:22:36.156 motivation to avoid that risk, I diminish your class. Example 0:22:36.156 --> 0:22:40.236 would be you live in a flood zone and I 0:22:40.276 --> 0:22:43.196 give you flood insurance, or the federal government you know, 0:22:43.716 --> 0:22:48.036 provides flood insurance. Nobody moves from South Beach. Yep, logically 0:22:48.036 --> 0:22:50.156 you shouldn't live in South Peach. In fact, they're building. 0:22:50.436 --> 0:22:53.556 They built billions of dollars in luxury house against South 0:22:53.596 --> 0:22:57.196 Beach in the last ten years, precisely because the builders 0:22:57.236 --> 0:23:00.756 are and the not not just builders, the purchasers of 0:23:00.796 --> 0:23:03.236 those apartments are reasonably sure that in the event of 0:23:03.236 --> 0:23:06.116 an environmental catastrophe, they will be bailed out by the government. 0:23:06.276 --> 0:23:08.236 So why not why not live in paradise until you 0:23:08.316 --> 0:23:12.716 get there? The answer to that is that just because 0:23:13.396 --> 0:23:17.956 one institution or body insures against risk and provides a 0:23:17.996 --> 0:23:21.876 mechanism for moral hazard doesn't mean everybody does. So what's 0:23:21.876 --> 0:23:26.436 happening in Miami is that, sure, if the hurricane wipes 0:23:26.476 --> 0:23:28.996 out your house, the Feds may bail you out, or 0:23:28.996 --> 0:23:32.116 the statement bail you out, But in the meantime, no 0:23:32.556 --> 0:23:36.676 private insurer is writing you up policy, right, So you're 0:23:36.716 --> 0:23:40.316 other self assuring or you're naked. The cycling that's happening 0:23:40.836 --> 0:23:43.036 that I suspect may soon happen, and there are people 0:23:43.436 --> 0:23:46.996 talking about this now, is maybe when you buy a 0:23:47.036 --> 0:23:54.556 house in South Beach, the mortgage rate is three points higher, 0:23:54.956 --> 0:23:57.356 maybe it's ten percent. Maybe the bank just says, you 0:23:57.396 --> 0:24:01.636 know what, why am I writing a mortgage for an 0:24:01.676 --> 0:24:05.196 apartment in South Beach that's the same as an apartment 0:24:05.236 --> 0:24:08.796 on a mountaintop in Maine when the odds that one 0:24:08.836 --> 0:24:12.076 will be swept away in a hurricane are a thousand 0:24:12.116 --> 0:24:14.596 times higher than the other. But really, by a quirk 0:24:14.676 --> 0:24:18.516 of history, we have national mortgage rates. Why are mortgage 0:24:18.596 --> 0:24:22.716 rates national if risks are not equal across what happens 0:24:22.756 --> 0:24:25.356 when we start localizing mortgage rates. That is a way 0:24:25.396 --> 0:24:31.076 in which moral hazard problems can be corrected by the market, right. 0:24:31.156 --> 0:24:33.276 But it's a very different kind of moral hazard. Right. 0:24:33.316 --> 0:24:37.596 It's actually you can't draw this then equivalence there because 0:24:37.676 --> 0:24:41.076 one is a personal choice you're making, right, You're you're 0:24:41.156 --> 0:24:43.636 choosing to buy a house knowing that it'll be fine 0:24:43.836 --> 0:24:46.516