WEBVTT - Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - January 9th, 2026 0:00:00.280 --> 0:00:07.240 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:08.640 --> 0:00:13.000 This is Bloomberg business Week Daily reporting from the magazine 0:00:13.000 --> 0:00:17.599 that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, 0:00:17.640 --> 0:00:22.520 and trends shaping today's complex economy, plus global business finance 0:00:22.560 --> 0:00:25.880 and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:31.320 Daily Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:31.680 --> 0:00:35.240 Hi, everyone, Welcome to the Bloomberg Business Week Weekend Podcast. Well, 0:00:35.360 --> 0:00:38.720 it was the first full trading week of twenty twenty six, 0:00:38.800 --> 0:00:43.160 A lot already happening, from geopolitical shockwaves in the Americas 0:00:43.200 --> 0:00:47.239 following the US removal of Venezuela's president Nicholas Maduro one 0:00:47.280 --> 0:00:49.920 week ago, to the reveal this past week of the 0:00:50.000 --> 0:00:53.680 latest and greatest gadgets and trends at CES in Las Vegas, 0:00:54.160 --> 0:00:56.200 and then Tim, we can't forget, Like it was almost 0:00:56.240 --> 0:01:00.120 hard to keep up the news from President Trump, coming 0:01:00.320 --> 0:01:02.800 largely in the way of social media, that he would 0:01:02.840 --> 0:01:06.280 move to ban institutional investors from buying single family homes 0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:09.160 as part of a push to address housing affordability. He 0:01:09.200 --> 0:01:11.040 also had some thoughts about the defense sector. 0:01:11.319 --> 0:01:14.640 Yeah, we also don't forget this the final jobs report 0:01:14.680 --> 0:01:17.800 of twenty twenty five. Those December numbers coming in too. 0:01:18.280 --> 0:01:20.959 Wrapped up the week with the Supreme Court not weighing 0:01:20.959 --> 0:01:24.039 in on the legality of President Donald Trump's tariffs. The 0:01:24.080 --> 0:01:27.280 next opinion day for a potential ruling is this coming Wednesday. 0:01:27.680 --> 0:01:29.600 For all the latest out on over to the Bloomberg 0:01:29.680 --> 0:01:32.840 Terminal or Bloomberg dot com as these stories continue to unfold, 0:01:33.160 --> 0:01:35.520 as we put these weekends interviews to bed. 0:01:35.600 --> 0:01:37.759 All right, So this hour we're going to dig into 0:01:37.760 --> 0:01:41.080 the ramifications for Venezuela and its oil reserves after the 0:01:41.080 --> 0:01:45.240 surprise US capture of Venezuela's former president now former President 0:01:45.560 --> 0:01:50.200 Nicholas Maduro. We get into President Donald Trump's emerging new World. 0:01:50.000 --> 0:01:52.920 Order, plus connecting the dots on the bigger picture, a 0:01:52.960 --> 0:01:56.200 world in need of more energy with the CEO of 0:01:56.240 --> 0:01:57.920 Honeywell Process Technology. 0:01:58.080 --> 0:01:59.680 All of that to come. We begin, though, with that 0:01:59.720 --> 0:02:02.960 fall out from last weekend US raid in Venezuela and 0:02:03.000 --> 0:02:05.440 the capture of President Nicholas Maduro and his wife. 0:02:05.600 --> 0:02:08.720 Eric Shatzker is editorial director of Bloomberg New Economy. He 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:11.960 was one of the few to interview Maduro at Mirafulla's palace. 0:02:12.000 --> 0:02:14.280 That was back in twenty twenty one. He joined us 0:02:14.320 --> 0:02:18.560 to discuss former Venezuelan President Maduro's journey from palace to 0:02:18.680 --> 0:02:21.359 a Brooklyn jail and what's next for the country. 0:02:21.560 --> 0:02:25.760 People who've been watching Venezuela for decades, much longer than 0:02:25.800 --> 0:02:29.240 I didn't see this coming. What we knew over the 0:02:29.240 --> 0:02:32.200 past several weeks and months is that the Trump administration 0:02:33.639 --> 0:02:37.280 had been putting an increasing amount of pressure on Venezuela 0:02:37.880 --> 0:02:40.880 and that there was going to have to be some 0:02:41.120 --> 0:02:46.160 kind of a crystallizing moment, but that it was going 0:02:46.200 --> 0:02:49.840 to come in the form of US helicopters staging a raid, 0:02:50.200 --> 0:02:53.800 an attack on Caracas and seizing Madudu. I think was 0:02:53.840 --> 0:02:57.840 beyond most people's imagination. From all I could tell, it 0:02:57.880 --> 0:03:02.240 was a possibility that Maduda himself hadn't fathomed. Well, what 0:03:02.320 --> 0:03:02.520 was it? 0:03:02.560 --> 0:03:04.720 What you mentioned there had to be a crystallization or 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:08.120 a crystallizing moment. What were some other scenarios or possibilities 0:03:08.160 --> 0:03:10.920 that you know three or four weeks ago looked more 0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:11.720 realistic than this. 0:03:11.840 --> 0:03:13.919 Air strikes for example. 0:03:13.639 --> 0:03:16.799 That would bring him from power. Well, ultimately unclear. 0:03:17.520 --> 0:03:22.200 It wasn't clear. The Trump administration in its first guys, 0:03:22.240 --> 0:03:26.040 Trump one point zero tried to affect regime change through 0:03:26.120 --> 0:03:31.640 economic sanctions, and so the idea of regime change being 0:03:31.680 --> 0:03:36.680 back on the menu wasn't at all surprising. How they 0:03:36.680 --> 0:03:41.240 were going to affect it was unclear. It's at least 0:03:41.520 --> 0:03:46.600 seemed to me at the time like asphyxiation was economic 0:03:46.640 --> 0:03:51.200 asphyxiation was the method that they were using. Once they 0:03:51.280 --> 0:03:57.440 moved you know, US aircraft carriers you know, and other 0:03:58.360 --> 0:04:04.119 craft into the Caribbean and started boarding oil tankers and 0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:08.240 chasing others away, it seemed it seemed like the plan 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:12.520 was to just deprive Venezuela of any external revenue, which is, 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:15.160 for all intents and purposes, the only revenue that matters 0:04:15.160 --> 0:04:19.440 to the Venezuelan economy, and that what would happen next, Well, 0:04:19.800 --> 0:04:23.760 there would very quickly be an economic crisis in Venezuela 0:04:23.800 --> 0:04:26.720 and a popular uprising, and maybe that's what would foment 0:04:27.240 --> 0:04:30.000 some kind of a regime change that would have taken 0:04:30.040 --> 0:04:32.240 it the very least weeks, if not months, to unfold. 0:04:32.839 --> 0:04:34.960 And who knows why at the end of the day, 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:37.920 the Trump administration chose to go with the ray. They 0:04:37.920 --> 0:04:42.000 are all kinds of theories, right, about, you know, everything 0:04:42.120 --> 0:04:45.560 ranging from somewhat more obviously try and get control of 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:50.120 Venezuela's oil reserves, to something along the lines of needing 0:04:50.120 --> 0:04:52.800 to box out the Chinese and the Russians and the 0:04:52.839 --> 0:04:58.200 Iranians who had increasingly been getting involved in Venezuelan critical 0:04:58.200 --> 0:05:02.719 mineral extraction and manufacturing. And as I say, there there 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:05.760 are there's a wide range of theories. I'm in no 0:05:05.800 --> 0:05:08.160 position to attach any credibility to any of them. 0:05:08.440 --> 0:05:10.680 Well, what I want to think about is what's the 0:05:10.720 --> 0:05:13.960 future of Venezuela going forward. And I'm just thinking about 0:05:14.040 --> 0:05:16.240 you know, when you did speak to President Maduro and 0:05:16.279 --> 0:05:19.960 that's what now four and a half years ago, and 0:05:20.080 --> 0:05:22.520 he at that time was looking to rebuild the nation's 0:05:22.520 --> 0:05:26.000 oil industry. He wanted to normalize US relations. How does 0:05:26.080 --> 0:05:30.240 Venezuela get on the path to long term prosperity in 0:05:30.279 --> 0:05:32.040 your view? And what's that stick because it sounds like 0:05:32.080 --> 0:05:33.320 it's still going to be pretty. 0:05:33.480 --> 0:05:36.160 The foremost, it needs a government. Doesn't really have a 0:05:36.200 --> 0:05:38.839 government right now. We have an interim president in the 0:05:38.839 --> 0:05:44.680 form of Delsi Rodriguez, who was Madudo's vice president. They're 0:05:44.680 --> 0:05:47.400 going to have to constitute some kind of at the 0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:52.240 very least caretaker administration. The idea it seems sort of 0:05:52.279 --> 0:05:55.120 preposterous that they would leave the same regime in place, 0:05:55.279 --> 0:05:59.040 just without its figurehead in the form of Maduro. And 0:05:59.200 --> 0:06:02.640 let's not forget that that administration is populated in no 0:06:02.760 --> 0:06:06.239 small part by Chavista hardliners. You know, these are people 0:06:06.279 --> 0:06:11.200 whom the US would classify as communists. I'm not surprised 0:06:11.360 --> 0:06:13.400 for the time being that they've left this government in 0:06:13.400 --> 0:06:18.880 place because Venezuela's institutions, such as they are, aren't ready 0:06:19.320 --> 0:06:23.479 for a democratic administration. So for those who wonder why 0:06:25.440 --> 0:06:29.480 Gonzalez or Mario Corino Machado aren't actually you know, haven't 0:06:29.480 --> 0:06:32.120 been named president of Venezuela, that's at least one good 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:36.680 reason for that. But eventually, whether it's to pass a 0:06:36.760 --> 0:06:40.000 series of or enact a series of policies that are 0:06:40.000 --> 0:06:42.960 going to help to revive the Venezuelan economy, to restart 0:06:42.960 --> 0:06:44.520 the oil industry, they're going to have to have and 0:06:44.520 --> 0:06:46.479 then subsequently restructure the debt, they're going to have to 0:06:46.520 --> 0:06:49.240 have some form of legitimate government. 0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:53.479 The National Assembly inaugurated Delci Rodriguez Az president. You actually 0:06:53.480 --> 0:06:56.000 spoke to her as well, I did, I did. What 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:57.120 were your impressions of her. 0:06:57.880 --> 0:07:03.480 She's a very capable individual, very articulate, seemingly whip smart, 0:07:04.279 --> 0:07:08.200 and most importantly, I think she demonstrated this. It's more 0:07:08.240 --> 0:07:11.080 important to talk about what she did than what she said. 0:07:11.120 --> 0:07:16.200 She demonstrated her pragmatism. She's the architect of the economic 0:07:16.320 --> 0:07:21.000 policies that helped Venezuela climb out of the ditch that 0:07:21.080 --> 0:07:23.760 it was in in twenty eighteen. We all remember the 0:07:23.800 --> 0:07:27.240 footage of those empty shelves in Venezuela at the time. 0:07:27.320 --> 0:07:31.120 By the time I got Takarakas in twenty twenty one, 0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:33.800 I wouldn't call it a prosperous place, but the economy 0:07:33.840 --> 0:07:37.600 had clearly come off of its lows and was actually 0:07:37.640 --> 0:07:40.840 growing at a fairly decent clip. Inflation was coming down. 0:07:40.880 --> 0:07:44.440 These are all things that Delsi Rodriguez engineered, not Ma 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:45.320 Duo himself. 0:07:46.040 --> 0:07:48.080 I keep thinking about the role of China and all 0:07:48.120 --> 0:07:50.880 of this. Who's watching very closely? How should we be 0:07:50.920 --> 0:07:52.280 thinking about China? 0:07:52.320 --> 0:07:57.760 Well, Venezuela, both for China and for Russia and potentially 0:07:57.760 --> 0:08:02.160 for Iran and maybe even India as well. Venezuela presented 0:08:03.200 --> 0:08:07.040 a great opportunity. Here is a resource rich country in 0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:11.800 the Western hemisphere whose government was open to some kind 0:08:11.880 --> 0:08:14.520 of a deal with the United States but really wasn't 0:08:14.560 --> 0:08:19.880 interested in falling back into the American orbit, and welcomed 0:08:20.400 --> 0:08:25.600 Chinese investment, Russian investment, help from both of those countries, 0:08:25.840 --> 0:08:30.760 Iran and potentially India as well. You know, if you 0:08:30.800 --> 0:08:33.840 look at yes, the map is changing. You know, we've 0:08:33.880 --> 0:08:36.920 seen a tilt to the right in the southern Cone, 0:08:36.920 --> 0:08:40.200 and we may see elections tilt more of South America 0:08:40.559 --> 0:08:43.760 toward the right than to the left in the coming months. 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:50.440 But that was a very useful beachhead and presented, you know, 0:08:50.520 --> 0:08:56.679 sort of in a more let's call it not quite fantastical, 0:08:56.720 --> 0:08:59.439 but imaginary way, you know, a base from which to 0:08:59.520 --> 0:09:03.599 launch operations against whether it be American or Western interests 0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:07.240 from the Western hemisphere. And so at the very very 0:09:07.320 --> 0:09:13.040 very least, by taking al Maduro and reaching some at 0:09:13.120 --> 0:09:17.400 least interim agreement with the Venezuelan government that it be 0:09:17.520 --> 0:09:19.800 under the influence of the United States, they've boxed out 0:09:20.080 --> 0:09:24.200 the Chinese. This is right, the national security strategy in action. 0:09:24.559 --> 0:09:28.400 It's just fascinating, Eric, Thank you so much. Important perspective 0:09:28.800 --> 0:09:30.319 in terms of what we've seen over the last few 0:09:30.360 --> 0:09:33.680 years in Venezuela. Eric Satsker, Editorial director of Bloomberg New Economy. 0:09:34.040 --> 0:09:38.040 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast. Catch us 0:09:38.120 --> 0:09:41.559 live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen 0:09:41.600 --> 0:09:45.160 on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, 0:09:45.320 --> 0:09:47.120 or watch us Live on YouTube. 0:09:48.160 --> 0:09:50.480 Now, all of that attention on Venezuela get us kind 0:09:50.520 --> 0:09:52.680 of thinking a lot about what really is needed to 0:09:52.720 --> 0:09:57.839 make that country economically viable long term, and also wonder 0:09:57.920 --> 0:10:00.080 if that's kind of the real goal of US action. 0:10:00.320 --> 0:10:02.360 We had a lot of questions this past week tim the. 0:10:02.280 --> 0:10:06.200 Trump administration has promised billions of investment to rebuild the 0:10:06.200 --> 0:10:10.560 country's crumbling energy infrastructure and restart exports with China, Russia, 0:10:10.600 --> 0:10:13.559 Iran and Cuba now effectively cut off from access to 0:10:13.600 --> 0:10:16.480 Venezuelan oil. For more on what the country really needs 0:10:16.559 --> 0:10:20.360 to build back its economy, we welcomed Francisco Rodriguez, Senior 0:10:20.640 --> 0:10:23.480 Research Fellow at the Center for Economics and Policy Research 0:10:23.520 --> 0:10:26.920 at the University of Denvers Corbel School of International Studies. 0:10:27.280 --> 0:10:29.400 Well, the question is what's the alternative, and what was 0:10:29.440 --> 0:10:32.920 the US willing or able to do. I mean, what 0:10:33.000 --> 0:10:37.680 we saw was the extraction of Nicolas Maduro, but not 0:10:37.960 --> 0:10:42.240 a regime change. The regime remains in place. What would 0:10:42.240 --> 0:10:44.480 have been necessary to change the regime that would have 0:10:44.480 --> 0:10:47.400 been a very different operation. The US would have had 0:10:47.440 --> 0:10:49.960 to carry out a land invasion of Venezuela, would have 0:10:49.960 --> 0:10:52.240 had to occupy the country. It would have needed to 0:10:52.240 --> 0:10:55.000 get involved in state building, and the US clearly decided 0:10:55.000 --> 0:10:57.400 not to do that. So then it has to deal 0:10:57.480 --> 0:11:00.920 with the authorities that actually have control over the territory. 0:11:00.960 --> 0:11:03.880 With the US is trying to do is to say, well, 0:11:04.600 --> 0:11:08.280 what to those authorities, what you're going to do is 0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:11.520 going to be circumscribed by the pressure that we're putting 0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:13.920 on you. Will allow you to sell your oil under 0:11:13.960 --> 0:11:18.160 certain conditions, but you have to comply with what we're 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:20.200 asking you to do. For example, you can't sell the 0:11:20.200 --> 0:11:22.760 oil to China. You have to sell it to the US, 0:11:22.880 --> 0:11:24.920 or you have to translate it to the US in 0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:25.240 some way. 0:11:25.320 --> 0:11:28.439 Professors, it notable to you that there aren't necessarily humanitarian 0:11:28.800 --> 0:11:30.560 elements that are tied to this. 0:11:31.160 --> 0:11:36.000 There's humanitarian and democracy. I mean, there's one problem in 0:11:36.080 --> 0:11:40.680 Venezuela is that this country has undergone a massive economic collapse. 0:11:40.920 --> 0:11:44.280 It suffered a contraction of seventy one percent of its GDP, 0:11:44.480 --> 0:11:48.840 the largest ever peacetime economic contraction in world history. And 0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:52.400 this country has been under a blockade of oil exports 0:11:52.440 --> 0:11:55.640 by the US, a total blockade for approximately one month. 0:11:55.679 --> 0:11:58.920 And this country depends only on oil revenue, that's its 0:11:58.960 --> 0:12:01.720 only source of revenue to fund its economy. So we 0:12:01.760 --> 0:12:05.680 could be looking at a situation in which the economy 0:12:05.760 --> 0:12:11.040 suffers another major humanitarian crisis, another major economic crisis, and 0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:15.319 we have migration out flows, we have our food shortages, 0:12:15.360 --> 0:12:18.040 we have quite possibly a famine. Then there's another issue, 0:12:18.080 --> 0:12:20.760 which is the issue of human rights and democracy. The 0:12:21.000 --> 0:12:23.480 US government has not talked about human rights, it hasn't 0:12:23.480 --> 0:12:28.160 talked about democracy. Secretary of Rubio said, on very vague terms, well, 0:12:28.320 --> 0:12:31.120 after we stabilize the economy, where there's going to be 0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:33.360 a transition that can be done by the Venezuelan people. 0:12:33.679 --> 0:12:36.160 But this is very vague. There was an election, it 0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:39.480 was won by the opposition last year, but that doesn't 0:12:39.520 --> 0:12:42.920 seem to be part of the plans of the US 0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:44.840 government to bring this into the picture. 0:12:45.040 --> 0:12:47.800 Yeah, I guess I just do wonder is energy A 0:12:47.800 --> 0:12:51.600 focus on energy really the path forward to creating a 0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:55.920 sustainable economy in Venezuela longer term? 0:12:56.720 --> 0:12:58.200 Well, I think that right now you have to worry 0:12:58.240 --> 0:13:00.680 about the short term more than the long term. I 0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:02.640 mean the Venezulona economy. 0:13:02.840 --> 0:13:05.240 So is oil the answer short term? Because we've all 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:05.800 talked about the. 0:13:06.120 --> 0:13:07.360 Stag it has to be. 0:13:07.360 --> 0:13:11.120 The Venezuelan economy has more than ninety percent of its 0:13:11.160 --> 0:13:13.720 exports have been oil for the last one hundred and 0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:16.760 ten years. You're not going to transform this overnight. This 0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:20.079 country is in the midst of a massive humanitarian crisis. 0:13:20.240 --> 0:13:22.880 What you have to do is recover the economy with 0:13:23.000 --> 0:13:26.360 the anchor of that economy, which is oil. Venezuela used 0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:28.800 to produce two and a half billion barrels. I'm not 0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:32.439 talking about ages ago. You're talking about twenty fifteen, before 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:34.360 sanctions were in post. It was producing two and a 0:13:34.400 --> 0:13:37.880 half billion barrels. Now it's producing around nine hundred thousand barrels. 0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:41.080 That is the driver of the Venezuelan economy. You have 0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:43.800 to increase that oil production and that has to generate 0:13:44.040 --> 0:13:46.400 royalties and revenues for the Venezuela state, so that it 0:13:46.400 --> 0:13:49.560 can fund public spending, so that it can fund imports 0:13:49.559 --> 0:13:52.079 of basics. This is a country that does not produce 0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:55.800 enough food to feed itself. It buys that food with 0:13:56.120 --> 0:13:59.840 the revenues from oil exports. So those oil exports have 0:13:59.880 --> 0:14:03.959 to be directed primarily at making sure that Venezuela's basic 0:14:04.000 --> 0:14:04.560 needs are meant. 0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:09.240 Francisco, what actions by the US will actually help the company? 0:14:09.360 --> 0:14:11.920 Do you agree with what they've done so far is 0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:15.160 big steps forward and will put the company put the 0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:19.320 company put the country on the right path to economic viability. 0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:21.840 Well, we're not sure what they've done right now. I mean, 0:14:22.000 --> 0:14:23.680 we know that they ated the country and took out 0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:26.000 the president, but we're not sure what it is that 0:14:26.040 --> 0:14:28.840 they're doing in terms of this oil deal. The only 0:14:28.920 --> 0:14:31.560 point is that I want to make is that this 0:14:31.720 --> 0:14:35.400 money has to come back to Venezuela. This money has 0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:38.160 to be able to fund the functioning of the Venezuela 0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:40.840 and economy. Otherwise you are going to have a massive 0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:44.880 humanitarian crisis. And what's going to happen is that millions 0:14:44.880 --> 0:14:46.920 of more Venezuela's are going to show up in other 0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:50.640 countries and ultimately in US borders unless you stabilize the 0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:51.720 Venezuela economy. 0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:53.880 All right, we got to leave it there. Thank you 0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:56.960 so much, really appreciate it. Francisco Rodriguez, Senior Research Fellow 0:14:57.000 --> 0:14:59.600 at the Center for Economic and Policy Research at the 0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:06.160 Universe of Denver's School of International Studies. 0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:13.880 This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live 0:15:13.960 --> 0:15:16.880 each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple car 0:15:16.960 --> 0:15:19.960 Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You 0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:23.160 can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 0:15:23.240 --> 0:15:26.800 New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty 0:15:27.440 --> 0:15:28.000 during the. 0:15:27.920 --> 0:15:31.120 First full trading day after the US strikes in Venezuela. 0:15:31.200 --> 0:15:34.680 So this past Monday, we saw oil stock surge along 0:15:34.720 --> 0:15:38.400 with traditional havens like gold and US treasuries, and yet 0:15:38.440 --> 0:15:42.440 global markets and the US market really didn't come undone. 0:15:42.640 --> 0:15:46.000 It appears financial markets and investors quickly got used to 0:15:46.080 --> 0:15:50.680 President Trump's approach to military operations and US actions around 0:15:50.680 --> 0:15:51.320 the globe. 0:15:51.720 --> 0:15:54.000 And so for more on the new world order and 0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:57.000 global market reaction, we spoke to Peter Cheer, head of 0:15:57.040 --> 0:16:00.760 Macro's strategy at Academy Securities. It's a firm that includes 0:16:00.800 --> 0:16:04.000 military generals on its staff to help evaluate the impact 0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:07.560 of geopolitics and military actions on the investing landscape. 0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:11.320 It is kind of wild, Peter, considering how this year 0:16:11.360 --> 0:16:15.440 has started and the actions in Venezuela and then kind 0:16:15.440 --> 0:16:18.920 of markets to look past it. I'm just curious your 0:16:19.000 --> 0:16:21.040 view on this, and I'm curious what kind of calls 0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:24.000 you were getting from either clients at your firm. 0:16:24.200 --> 0:16:26.640 At Academy, we work with thirty retired generals and admirals, 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:29.800 So yeah, I think I think the market who's actually 0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:31.400 do make sense though, I think this is the start of 0:16:31.440 --> 0:16:33.800 the year stuff, so I'm not surprised that we're kind 0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:36.440 of rallying away from that. I think on Venezuela, it 0:16:36.520 --> 0:16:39.560 was a very impressive military operation, whatever else you want 0:16:39.560 --> 0:16:42.760 to think about it, it was very successful, incredibly fast, 0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:46.320 you know, this very precision. Now, I think we're not 0:16:46.320 --> 0:16:48.280 going to see a lot on oil energy prices. I 0:16:48.320 --> 0:16:50.840 think there's a lot of building out and what I 0:16:50.840 --> 0:16:52.240 think this is going to really you know, this is 0:16:52.280 --> 0:16:53.960 a quick fix. None of this is a quick fix. 0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:55.360 And I think what this is really going to boil 0:16:55.440 --> 0:16:58.040 down to is this is our first real confrontation with 0:16:58.160 --> 0:17:00.800 China away from either's kind of sphere of influence. 0:17:00.880 --> 0:17:01.000 Right. 0:17:01.120 --> 0:17:03.960 If you think about all the trade negotiation was mainland 0:17:04.000 --> 0:17:06.480 China versus US. You know, there were some tariffs, but 0:17:06.520 --> 0:17:08.000 all of a sudden, we're going and saying we're going 0:17:08.080 --> 0:17:10.160 to take stuff. China's invested a lot of money there, 0:17:10.240 --> 0:17:12.159 China has a lot of loans to companies. How is 0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:13.840 that friction going to play out? China's going to use 0:17:13.880 --> 0:17:16.520 their lawyers to try and stop things. I think this 0:17:16.600 --> 0:17:18.840 is really important too for China because if they kind 0:17:18.840 --> 0:17:21.280 of get pushed out of Venezuela very easily and they 0:17:21.320 --> 0:17:23.399 lose money, the rest of the world where they put 0:17:23.400 --> 0:17:25.399 out their Belt and Road initiative starts looking at that 0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:27.119 and it could be a big role on effects. So 0:17:27.400 --> 0:17:29.600 I think we're going to see friction. I honestly think 0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:32.119 we're going to see China first attack with lawyers, and 0:17:32.119 --> 0:17:34.000 they won't attack anything until they start seeing what we're 0:17:34.040 --> 0:17:35.520 actually doing. So far has just spent a lot of 0:17:35.560 --> 0:17:36.200 talk and noise. 0:17:36.560 --> 0:17:39.280 Greenland has become more of a story. Where does that 0:17:39.320 --> 0:17:40.080 strategy fit in? 0:17:40.200 --> 0:17:41.679 That One's a hard one for us. I think when 0:17:41.720 --> 0:17:44.200 we look at the world, when we kind of view Iran. 0:17:44.440 --> 0:17:47.120 We could see maybe doing something the IRGC. I don't 0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:50.000 think we would do anything with the religious side of 0:17:50.000 --> 0:17:51.720 Iran in any way shape. 0:17:51.520 --> 0:17:53.560 Or for what you said, do something, What do you mean, maybe. 0:17:53.320 --> 0:17:55.200 With support, you know, to attack some of the irg's 0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:58.560 facilities or something if the IRGC gets very aggresive against 0:17:58.560 --> 0:18:01.240 the protesters. I could see something. On Cuba seems a 0:18:01.280 --> 0:18:03.320 little bit more easier to deal with. We already have 0:18:03.520 --> 0:18:08.000 the uss Ford is in the Caribbean Sea. It's actually 0:18:08.720 --> 0:18:10.280 not a very efficient place for it to be. It's 0:18:10.320 --> 0:18:12.520 too small of an area for an aircraft carrier group, 0:18:12.640 --> 0:18:14.879 and it's due for some refitting and remodeling. So I 0:18:14.920 --> 0:18:16.479 think we will try and use it as much as possible. 0:18:16.480 --> 0:18:18.600 So that's why we weren't surprised about action in Venezuela. 0:18:18.920 --> 0:18:21.200 I think we could see activity in around Panama Canal 0:18:21.240 --> 0:18:23.359 where we try and either buy it or invest in it. 0:18:23.440 --> 0:18:26.320 Is that for a China proxy. 0:18:26.000 --> 0:18:27.600 I think for a China proxy, And again I think 0:18:27.600 --> 0:18:31.080 we really want to control shipping through central South America 0:18:31.359 --> 0:18:33.280 and the Panama Canal is a big part of that. 0:18:33.280 --> 0:18:34.960 And don't forget Marco Ruby is the first place he 0:18:35.000 --> 0:18:37.840 went on Greenland. I think we all struggle with why 0:18:37.920 --> 0:18:40.360 this term annex or take keeps coming up. I think 0:18:40.400 --> 0:18:41.040 that's a struggle. 0:18:41.119 --> 0:18:47.080 So to recap Panama, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran makes sense, Greenland 0:18:47.080 --> 0:18:47.640 not so much. 0:18:48.119 --> 0:18:50.560 I find it very difficult to like play why we 0:18:50.600 --> 0:18:53.680 would just wrap NATO. And again, I think we've been 0:18:53.800 --> 0:18:55.919 less thoughtful on NATO and where it's important is but 0:18:55.960 --> 0:18:58.080 this kind of puts a lot of friction. And even 0:18:58.080 --> 0:19:01.480 from a business standpoint, I think I can believe that 0:19:01.520 --> 0:19:03.920 in Venezuela there's a lot of rarest and critical minerals 0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:06.000 that have been underinvested in. I find it hard to 0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:08.320 believe someone hasn't been checking out Greenland and saying this 0:19:08.400 --> 0:19:11.160 is just economically unviable. I do know, and I think 0:19:11.160 --> 0:19:13.160 this is interesting because one of our generals is actually 0:19:13.160 --> 0:19:16.040 now the Undersecretary of War, and before he became Undersecretary 0:19:16.040 --> 0:19:17.920 of War earlier was still working with us. He did 0:19:17.920 --> 0:19:21.440 talk about and point out that China has more icebreakers 0:19:21.440 --> 0:19:24.159 than we do, and so China views themselves as an 0:19:24.280 --> 0:19:27.360 arctic nation. Russia clearly views themselves as an Arctic nation. 0:19:27.800 --> 0:19:29.880 So maybe this is coming something to do with as 0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:33.320 the polar ice caps are melting that it creates different routes, 0:19:33.359 --> 0:19:35.400 so we want some more protection there. So maybe something 0:19:35.400 --> 0:19:37.280 that makes sense. But again that all feels like it 0:19:37.280 --> 0:19:40.040 could be done within the confines of existing rules and 0:19:40.080 --> 0:19:43.560 regulations rather than having kind of this annex or take concept. 0:19:43.720 --> 0:19:45.680 Yeah, I mean, I don't know, how are you thinking 0:19:45.680 --> 0:19:49.359 about this year when it comes to the Trump White House, 0:19:49.520 --> 0:19:53.760 and especially with midterms looming. I've heard some folks say that, Listen, 0:19:53.800 --> 0:19:55.959 there's a lot of pressure on the administration to get 0:19:56.000 --> 0:19:58.680 things done early in the year because as midterms loom, 0:19:58.720 --> 0:20:02.199 there are expectations that they're might be pushback against the 0:20:02.240 --> 0:20:05.040 GOP and the Trump administration. But I'm just curious what 0:20:05.080 --> 0:20:06.320 you're telling your clients. 0:20:06.359 --> 0:20:08.160 So what we've really liked is what we've been calling 0:20:08.200 --> 0:20:10.960 prosec or production for security, and it's kind of along 0:20:11.000 --> 0:20:14.160 the lines of resilience, and that includes anything from chips, electricity, 0:20:14.200 --> 0:20:16.520 so Intel for example. I think there's gonna be huge 0:20:16.520 --> 0:20:19.840 pressure on companies to use US chip manufacturers, right, we 0:20:19.920 --> 0:20:23.040 have to break away from Taiwan. I think there's realization 0:20:23.080 --> 0:20:26.320 we're not producing enough electricity. We will deregulate, we'll get 0:20:26.359 --> 0:20:28.800 electricity in all forms running. I do think President Trump 0:20:28.880 --> 0:20:31.000 will give up on his kind of hatred of solar 0:20:31.000 --> 0:20:33.920 and adapt solar. But you're gonna see solar nuclear I do. 0:20:34.160 --> 0:20:36.439 I think it's just wind is a step too far. 0:20:36.520 --> 0:20:37.560 I think Win's a step too far. 0:20:37.760 --> 0:20:38.720 They really does not like that. 0:20:38.840 --> 0:20:40.640 He really does not like I think there's a visceral 0:20:40.640 --> 0:20:43.200 hatred to it. Partly, I think it does destroy views. 0:20:43.240 --> 0:20:45.399 I think there's questions about his efficiencies, and it does 0:20:45.440 --> 0:20:47.320 kill birds and stuff, and that seems to really bother them. 0:20:47.320 --> 0:20:48.840 So I'm not going to fight the wind. 0:20:49.000 --> 0:20:51.600 I do think on solar housecats kill a lot of 0:20:51.640 --> 0:20:53.800 birds too, truly. 0:20:53.640 --> 0:20:55.320