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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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Speaker 2: Good morning.

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Speaker 3: I'm John Tucker and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the

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Speaker 3: stories we're following today.

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Speaker 4: Karen, it is a commuter's nightmare this morning. For the

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Speaker 4: first time in forty years, New Jersey Transit train engineers

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Speaker 4: have walked off the job, and that is forcing thousands

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Speaker 4: of people to find another way of getting to work.

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Speaker 4: This morning, Bloomberg's Michael Barr is joining us Lined in

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Speaker 4: the studio with this obdape.

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Speaker 2: Michael, Good morning, Good morning, John.

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Speaker 5: NJ transitent engineers walked off the job just after midnight.

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Speaker 5: Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen General chairman Tom Hass

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Speaker 5: says after fifteen hours of negotiations Thursday, they decided to

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Speaker 5: walk has as a major issue is fair wages that

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Speaker 5: are in line with other public transit engineers in the Northeast.

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Speaker 6: That's all we were seeking was and all that we're

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Speaker 6: still seeking is to close that gap, to bring engineers

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Speaker 6: equal pay for equal work.

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Speaker 5: And Jay Transit President and CEO Chris colorI called the

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Speaker 5: union's proposal unaffordable. colorI suggested working from home if you can,

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Speaker 5: but if you have to commute.

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Speaker 7: Amtrak will continue to run, Path will continue to run,

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Speaker 7: our buses will continue to run, our Access Link will

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Speaker 7: continue to run, light rail systems will continue to run,

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Speaker 7: and the ferries will continue to run.

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Speaker 5: New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy says he's not shocked by

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Speaker 5: the union's decision.

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Speaker 8: We were hoping for the best, were prepared for the worst.

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Speaker 5: More than three hundred and fifty thousand rail service commuters

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Speaker 5: are affected in New York.

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Speaker 2: Michael Barr Bloomberg Radio, thank you.

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Speaker 3: We now turned to the Middle East, where Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: is wrapping up his trip, has heard right here on

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Radio. The President said it was a good one

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Speaker 3: for deal making.

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Speaker 9: We're making great progress toward the one point four trillion

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Speaker 9: dollars that UAE has announced that it intends to spend

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Speaker 9: in the United States over the next couple of years.

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Speaker 10: Yesterday, the two.

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Speaker 9: Countries also agreed to create a path for UAE to

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Speaker 9: buy some of the world's most advanced AI semiconductors from

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Speaker 9: American companies, a very big contract. This will generate billions

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Speaker 9: and billions of dollars in business and accelerate the UE's

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Speaker 9: plans to become a really major player in artificial Intelligence.

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Speaker 3: President Trump made the comments at the us UAE Business

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Speaker 3: Council Breakfast roundtable in Abu Dhabi and Karen.

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Speaker 4: The leaders of nearly four dozen European countries and organizations.

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Speaker 4: They're gathering for a one day summit in Albania to

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Speaker 4: discuss security and defense challenges across the continent, with Russia's

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Speaker 4: folk scale the invasion of Ukraine at the top of

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Speaker 4: the agenda. Ukrainian President Florimir Zelenski is among the leaders

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Speaker 4: invited to the event.

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Speaker 2: Now, on the eve of the.

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Speaker 4: Summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin spurned and offered by Zelenski

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Speaker 4: to meet face to face in Turkey to try to

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Speaker 4: secure a cease fire with Moscow.

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Speaker 10: Yell us, I.

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Speaker 11: Think that the Kremlin leader should show his leadership.

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Speaker 2: If he's ready for negotiate, let's meet.

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Speaker 11: We can't really run around the world looking for him.

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Speaker 4: Ukrainian President Vander Brenzelenski, speaking through an interpreter, Secretary of

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Speaker 4: State Marco Rubio says the likelihood of progress in ending

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Speaker 4: the work is low without a meeting between Putin and

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Speaker 4: President Trump.

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Speaker 3: John back here in the US, Republican House members are

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Speaker 3: still hammering out details for Trump's tax bill and how

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Speaker 3: to pay for it. There are several sticking points, including

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Speaker 3: the state and local tax deduction. Bloomberg Jamy Morris has

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Speaker 3: the latest from Washington.

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Speaker 11: Ways and Means Committee chair Jason Smith says lawmakers should

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Speaker 11: accept the thirty thousand dollars limit on salt deductions, calling

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Speaker 11: it fair, but New York, New Jersey, and California Republicans

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Speaker 11: are holding out for a higher limit, one of a

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Speaker 11: few unresolved issues preventing them from advancing Trump's tax bill.

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Speaker 11: After meeting with GOP lawmakers, House Speaker Mike Johnson says

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Speaker 11: they're closed.

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Speaker 4: We've got a few thesis yet to solve, but I

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Speaker 4: think we're going to do that over the weekend.

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Speaker 11: So Republicans plan to work through the weekend. Johnson had

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Speaker 11: expected a deal on wednesdaygreciating.

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Speaker 4: With a number of members and number of caucuses, Well,

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Speaker 4: you know me, I'm an optimist weeping forward.

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Speaker 1: We've been demonstrating that every step of the way.

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Speaker 10: We're going to do it again.

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Speaker 11: He plans to bring the bill to the House floor

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Speaker 11: next week in Washington. Amy Morris Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 4: All right, thanks, Amy, and another GOP lawmaker is signaling

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Speaker 4: the party needs to reach an agreement on the tax bill.

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Speaker 4: This is New York Republican Representative Nicole Melliatack is telling

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Speaker 4: Bloomberg she remains confident the bill will get passed, saying

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Speaker 4: disagreements over the salt the state and local tax deduction

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Speaker 4: should not be a deal breaker.

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Speaker 12: The tripling of the deduction to thirty thousand dollars covers

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Speaker 12: ninety eight percent of my district. Now what I've liked

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Speaker 12: to hire number. Sure, you know, but it's not what

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Speaker 12: you want, it's what you need.

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Speaker 4: New York Representative Nicole Melea Tack is adding that failing

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Speaker 4: to reach a deal of taxes would hurt the economy.

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Speaker 4: She made those comments yesterday on Bloomberg Balance of Power.

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Speaker 3: John we turned now to the markets and the economy

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Speaker 3: and JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie diamond says a recession

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Speaker 3: remains a possibility. Teriff fallout continues to buffet global economies,

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Speaker 3: and he spoke with the Bloomberg's Francy lachwaan Paris.

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Speaker 13: I think all these things are probably inflationary a little

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Speaker 13: bit more and slowing.

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Speaker 10: Down the economy.

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Speaker 13: If there's a recession, I don't know how big o'b

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Speaker 13: or how long it'll last. Hopefully we'll avoid it, but

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Speaker 13: I wouldn't take it off the table at this point.

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Speaker 3: JP Morgan. Chase CEO Jamie Dimon added that some clients

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Speaker 3: are holding back on investments because of all the volatility,

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Speaker 3: and you can hear the full conversation on the Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: podcast page on YouTube.

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Speaker 4: And Bloomberg has learned the Justice Department is conducting a

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Speaker 4: criminal anti trust probe how companies responded to mass concert

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Speaker 4: cancellations at the outset of the pandemic at twenty twenty.

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Speaker 4: Let's get more on that story this morning from Bloomberg's

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Speaker 4: Genie Cervetti.

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Speaker 8: Source to say the investigation is focused on whether Live

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Speaker 8: Nation and AEG Presents illegally colluded on refund policies for

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Speaker 8: canceled concerts. The investigation is looking into whether the companies

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Speaker 8: dealt with artists to limit losses, and prosecutors have weighed

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Speaker 8: bringing charge, including against Live Nation and its CEO Michael Rapino.

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Speaker 8: Live Nation has denied any wrongdoing, saying it set its

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Speaker 8: own unique policies and refund terms to support fans and

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Speaker 8: artists and did not collude with AEG or anyone else.

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Speaker 8: The Justice Department's criminal probe grew out of a civil

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Speaker 8: antitrust investigation of Live Nation during the Biden administration. Gina

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Speaker 8: Cervetti Bloomberg Radio, All.

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Speaker 3: Right, Gina, thank you. In shares of Live Nation fell

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Speaker 3: more than two percent in extended trading. We're watching shares

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Speaker 3: of Applied Materials this morning. They're down six percent. The

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Speaker 3: largest American maker of chip manufacturing equipment gave a lackluster

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Speaker 3: forecast for the current period. Applied Materials and other chip

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Speaker 3: industry companies are adjusting to restrictions on sales to China,

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Speaker 3: one of the biggest markets for their products.

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Speaker 4: And Karen Bloomberg News has learned that Charter Communications is

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Speaker 4: in advanced talks to combine with privately held Cox Communications,

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Speaker 4: a deal with unite two of the biggest US cable providers.

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Speaker 4: The companies are just using a cash and stock transaction

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Speaker 4: that would value Cocks at more than thirty billion dollars,

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Speaker 4: including dead.

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Speaker 2: Time.

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Speaker 3: Now for a look at some of the other stories

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Speaker 3: making news in New York and around the world, And

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Speaker 3: for that we're joined again by Bloomberry's Michael barr Hi Michael.

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Speaker 2: Hello, Karin.

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Speaker 5: The Supreme Court heard arguments from the Trump administration related

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Speaker 5: to their efforts to end birthright citizenship. So Listener General

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Speaker 5: John Sowery is petitioning the Court to roll back nationwide

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Speaker 5: injunctions from lower courts that have blocked President Trump's executive

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Speaker 5: order from taking effect. Justice Brett Kevanaugh asks our about

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Speaker 5: how the government would characterize children born in the US.

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Speaker 6: On the day after it goes into effect. This is

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Speaker 6: just a very practical question. How it's going to work.

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Speaker 6: What do hospitals do with a newborn? What do states

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Speaker 6: do with a newborn? I don't think they do anything different.

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Speaker 6: What the executive or says in section two is that

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Speaker 6: federal officials do not accept documents that have the wrong

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Speaker 6: designation of citizenship from people who are subject to the

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Speaker 6: executive How they got to know that.

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Speaker 5: The Supreme Court could issue a broad opinion on nationwide

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Speaker 5: injunctions that can happen by the end of June or

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Speaker 5: early July. R and B singer Cassie Ventura returned to

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Speaker 5: the witness stand for a third day of testimony Thursday,

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Speaker 5: this time for cross examination in the sex trafficking and

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Speaker 5: racketeering trial of her ex boyfriend, music mogul Sean Diddy Combs.

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Speaker 5: He's pleaded not guilty to all charges. Ventur testified Combs

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Speaker 5: coerced her into sex under threat of violence and blackmail.

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Speaker 5: On cross examination, she said Combs was also violent because

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Speaker 5: of jealousy and her infidelity. Telling the jury dating rapper

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Speaker 5: Kid Cutty and actor Michael B. Jordan prompted arguments. Ventur

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Speaker 5: will face a fourth day on the witness stand this morning.

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Speaker 5: A New Jersey couple is accused of holding an eighteen

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Speaker 5: year old captive in their Camden County home and abusing

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Speaker 5: her for years before she finally escaped last week. The

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Speaker 5: girl's mother and stepfather are accused of holding the girl

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Speaker 5: captive for seven years, keeping her in a dog crate.

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Speaker 2: Police head.

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Speaker 5: The parents also pat locked the child in a bathroom,

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Speaker 5: beat her repeatedly, and chained her like a slave. She

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Speaker 5: escaped and made her way to a neighbor, who spoke

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Speaker 5: to ABC's WPV I.

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Speaker 2: He definitely had squaws on our wrist from I think

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Speaker 2: being chained up.

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Speaker 5: The neighbors said he hadn't seen the victim in eleven years.

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Speaker 5: Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you

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Speaker 5: want it with Bloomberg News Now Michael Barrn. This is Bloomberg, Karen.

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Speaker 3: All right, Michael Barry, thank you. Time Now for the

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Sports Update. Here's John Stanshawer. John, good morning, Good.

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Speaker 2: Morning, Karen.

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Speaker 14: It's a big sports night in New York. The Subway

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Speaker 14: Series in the Bronx, the Knicks and Celtics at the Garden,

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Speaker 14: where the Knicks have not clemsed the series victory since

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Speaker 14: nineteen ninety nine. Once again, Boston's three point shooting could

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Speaker 14: prove to be the key. Close to fifty percent of

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Speaker 14: their two wins in the three long since, the Celtics

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Speaker 14: have missed a total of more than one hundred threes.

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Speaker 14: If the Knicks win, they're in the conference finals so

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Speaker 14: the first time in twenty five years, and get ready

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Speaker 14: to play Indiana.

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Speaker 10: If they lose, it's.

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Speaker 14: Game seven back in Boston on Monday, and Denver, the

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Speaker 14: Nuggets play Oklahoma City. Beat Oklahoma City one nineteen one

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Speaker 14: oh seven. That series going to a game seven Sunday

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Speaker 14: at OKC. The'll win it and then take on Minnesota.

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Speaker 14: As for the Subway Series, both teams are in first place.

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Speaker 14: The Mets will start Tyler McGill. The Yankees go with

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Speaker 14: Carlos Redonna and Juan Soto told The New York Post

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Speaker 14: he expects the crowd to sound like it's fifty thousand

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Speaker 14: to one as Sodo returns to the Bronx after deciding,

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Speaker 14: of course, to sign with the Mets and not return.

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Speaker 2: To the Yanks.

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Speaker 14: Yann They Cup playoffs in DC, Knes and Capitols. Game

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Speaker 14: five was tied at one for forty four minutes.

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Speaker 15: A walker with the punt up the medal for Tarkins

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Speaker 15: lat across the line, there steps the cop. Two minute

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Speaker 15: training sets the cop with the easton the Carolina Hurricanes

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Speaker 15: take the lead and I'll get it.

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Speaker 2: Fifty nine second tramading.

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Speaker 14: DNC the call de andres hetched the COF game winder.

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Speaker 14: Carolina added an empty edit one three to one to

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Speaker 14: take the series four to one. Winnipeg shut out Dallas

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Speaker 14: for nothing, cutting the Stars series lead to three to two.

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Speaker 14: Bunch of relative unknowns atop the leaderboard after the opening

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Speaker 14: round of the PGA Championship in Charlotte, including Jonathan Vegas.

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Speaker 14: The forty year old from Venezuela finished the day with

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Speaker 14: three birdie shot US seven under sixty four leads by

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Speaker 14: two over Australian Cam Davis and American Ryan Gerrard, Luke Donald,

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Speaker 14: the European writer Cup Captain three Shots Behind for our

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Speaker 14: listeners in New York, Boston and DC. Bloomberg Radio with

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Speaker 14: Live PGA covered today after the closing bell and then

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Speaker 14: throughout the weekend.

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Speaker 2: John Stashemer Bloomberg Sports, Karen and.

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Speaker 1: John Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius

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Speaker 1: Exam and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak and good morning.

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Speaker 2: I'm John Tucker.

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Speaker 4: Let's get more on our top story this morning, tens

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Speaker 4: of thousands of Gunters trying to find another way to

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Speaker 4: get to work this morning, a New Jersey transit train

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Speaker 4: engineers are on strike.

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Speaker 2: And Bloomberg's Monica Ricks is.

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Speaker 4: At Penn Station in Manhattan with an update this morning.

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Speaker 4: First off, Monica set the scene for us. Our picket

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Speaker 4: lines up, not quite.

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Speaker 16: Yet, So I just talked to a couple guys with

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Speaker 16: the union who are just sort of milling around fence station.

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Speaker 16: They're rallying the troops right now. A couple guys have

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Speaker 16: just come in, you know, they're waiting for the bigger

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Speaker 16: demonstrations that are said to happen anytime this morning, but

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Speaker 16: nothing's quite started yet. Downstairs though, inside the train station,

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Speaker 16: all of the gates are down. Service has been has

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Speaker 16: been obviously been stopped, but all the tracks are blocked off.

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Speaker 16: There's announcements going telling writers to be aware, and the

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Speaker 16: union says it's unfortunate that it's come to this, but

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Speaker 16: they do plan to picket and show New Jersey Transit

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Speaker 16: that they mean business.

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Speaker 4: Now Amtrak is running, light rail service running. Of course,

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Speaker 4: New Jersey Transit buses are running. You also have ferry service.

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Speaker 4: But is all that combined even enough to make up

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Speaker 4: for the lack of rail service from New Jersey Transit.

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Speaker 10: Absolutely not.

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Speaker 16: They're talking about three hundred more than three hundred thousand

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Speaker 16: daily commuters that ride New Jersey Transit daily, So the buses,

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Speaker 16: the ferries, the light rail, this is only going to

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Speaker 16: cover about a fraction of riders, not even twenty percent.

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Speaker 16: So New Jersey trans is urging as many commuters to

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Speaker 16: stay home today, work from home if they can. You're

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Speaker 16: going to see a lot of traffic on the roads

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Speaker 16: if you decide to drive in. But they're going to

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Speaker 16: get more buses in here, but still it's not going

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Speaker 16: to cover the amount of commuters that take these trains daily.

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Speaker 4: All right, again, New Jersey transit train engineers. They went

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Speaker 4: on strike just after midnight, and as Monica tells us

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Speaker 4: from Penn station there in midtown, they're about to set

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Speaker 4: up the picket lines. Bloomberg's Monica rigs Karen John.

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Speaker 3: We want to repeat some of our top stories this morning.

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Speaker 3: President Trump is wrapping up his tour in the Middle East.

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Speaker 3: On his final day, he met with US and UAE

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Speaker 3: business executives. Hopes for a Ukraine and ceasefire have faded

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Speaker 3: after Russia's Vladimir Putin sent a low level delegation to

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Speaker 3: talks in Turkey. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says progress

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Speaker 3: is unlikely without a meeting between Putin and President Trump.

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Speaker 3: Republican infighting in the US House is threatening to sink

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Speaker 3: President Trump's legislative agenda. Competing factions are sparring over details

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Speaker 3: of the giant tax bill. We have more in those

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Speaker 3: stories coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak, John.

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Speaker 4: And that brings us to five point fifteen. Thanks Karen,

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Speaker 4: and we want to turn our discussion to JP Morgan

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Speaker 4: chairman and CEO Jamie Diamond wide ranging exclusive conversation in

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Speaker 4: Paris with Bloomberg's Francine Lacroix, the head of the biggest

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Speaker 4: bank in the US, says the recession remains a possibility

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Speaker 4: as tariff rollout continues to ripple through global economies. Let's

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Speaker 4: now go to that conversation.

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Speaker 8: Trade War's markets.

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Speaker 10: Up and down.

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Speaker 17: What did you learn in the last month.

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Speaker 13: Not much other than we have all this uncertainty. You know,

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Speaker 13: some preceded the new administration, like we had large deficity.

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Speaker 10: It's instur rates going.

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Speaker 13: Up, inflation going up, and some are you know, tariffs

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Speaker 13: and things. And of course the geopolitical situation is very tense,

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Speaker 13: very difficult and hard to resolve.

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Speaker 17: Okay, so if you forget projections numbers, what's your hunch

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Speaker 17: is the UYS going to go into a recession or not?

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Speaker 13: Look, I'm going to defer to economists who give it

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Speaker 13: about a fifty percent chance. I think all these things

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Speaker 13: are probably inflationary a little bit more and slowing down

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Speaker 13: the economy. If there's a recession, I don't know how

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Speaker 13: big it'll be or how long it will last.

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Speaker 10: Hopefully we'll avoid it.

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Speaker 13: But I wouldn't take it off to the table at

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Speaker 13: this point.

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Speaker 17: If you look at you know, the trade war and

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Speaker 17: then the somewhat reconciliation between the US and China, does

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Speaker 17: it hold.

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Speaker 13: I think it's the right thing to do is to

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Speaker 13: back off of some of that stuff, you know, to

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Speaker 13: have an engage in conversation. I'm grateful they did the

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Speaker 13: US UK deal. You know, it's an agreement of principle.

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Speaker 13: So you know, there's a lot of one sertay still

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Speaker 13: and there's all of one stay still in the China thing.

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Speaker 13: But at least we started and obviously calms down the markets.

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Speaker 13: That's not the reason to do it for the market,

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Speaker 13: you know, do voters something like that, and so you'll

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Speaker 13: still have uncertainty to resolve. The ninety day triggers a

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Speaker 13: lot of these things, and hopefully they will be resolved.

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Speaker 13: What are your real their complex I don't expect immediate resolution,

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Speaker 13: you know, it's the satisfaction of everybody in ninety days.

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Speaker 17: Would you expect markets to settle from here because we

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Speaker 17: have a little bit more of a blueprint or could

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Speaker 17: volatility pick back up in any second?

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Speaker 13: Markets are quite unpredictable. I think there's a lot of

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Speaker 13: uncertainty out there that you can't discount, you know when

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Speaker 13: I you know, war in Ukraine, terror in the Middle East,

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Speaker 13: you know, I ran.

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Speaker 10: You know, huge deficits.

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Speaker 13: Are tax bill, which I would like to see a

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Speaker 13: good tax bill at pass, you know, the terrorists, the reaction.

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Speaker 10: Of country to tariffs. The EU and the.

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Speaker 13: UK are about to negotiate, and I think they have

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Speaker 13: a chance to actually develop a great relationship, you know,

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Speaker 13: partially making up for you know, the disaster the Brexit became.

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Speaker 13: And so, yeah, those are uncertainties. You can't eliminate them

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Speaker 13: because you want to.

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Speaker 17: But what are your biggest clients saying about this market volatility?

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Speaker 17: Have they made money on the back?

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Speaker 13: Yeah?

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Speaker 10: Some you know, some doing some don't.

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Speaker 13: And you know, volatility volatitier would be good or bad

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Speaker 13: depending on you know, who's who's facing it. So but

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Speaker 13: but I would expect continued volatility. I think it's a

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Speaker 13: mistake to think we can go through all the things

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Speaker 13: we're going through and the volatility itself will calm down.

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Speaker 17: Has it been good for JP margin, you know, trading.

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Speaker 13: Revolically, Yes, because when there's volatility is a very simplistic

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Speaker 13: way to look at spreads gap out, and traders make

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Speaker 13: more money if there's more volume. So we had both

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Speaker 13: this time, more volatilely more volume. It's very often you

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Speaker 13: have a lot of volatility and spreads gap out.

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Speaker 10: There's much less volume.

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Speaker 13: So you've seen examples where there's good volatility and there's

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Speaker 13: bad volatile.

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Speaker 10: It just one happened to be good. The next go

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Speaker 10: around may not be so good, Jamie.

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Speaker 17: When it comes to financials, I mean, you know a

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Speaker 17: lot of I guess non bank entrants are making quite

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Speaker 17: a lot of way Citadel Jane Street, is that, you

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Speaker 17: know a concern for the banks.

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Speaker 10: Should it be a problem for the banks?

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Speaker 13: I would call it a problem. You know that both clients.

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Speaker 13: I'm very capable, you know. But I've always had the

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Speaker 13: view there are a lot of competitors out there, and

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Speaker 13: you know, all the major banks are back. I think

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Speaker 13: that's a good thing for the world, you know, maybe

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Speaker 13: not so much for Jamie Morgan. There's you mentioned those two,

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Speaker 13: there's Apollo, there's a lot of fintech, some very good ones.

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Speaker 13: There's Stripe, there's PayPal. Yeah, my view has always been

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Speaker 13: the same. I tell the magic you assume competition, assume

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Speaker 13: they're coming at.

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Speaker 10: You in every angle.

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Speaker 13: Assume they often have their own strength, sometimes their own weaknesses.

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Speaker 13: They won't all do great, but yeah, I think they're

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Speaker 13: you know, some of these people gaining quite a bit

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Speaker 13: of shared parts of the business. We still are too,

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Speaker 13: by the way, So you know we're in the fight.

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Speaker 13: We're not losing out very much. But that doesn't mean

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Speaker 13: you won't lose out tomorrow because you're winning today.

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Speaker 10: So what do you have to do today?

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Speaker 17: How do you see the people that are doing you

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Speaker 17: know well today doing even better tomorrow.

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Speaker 13: It's about us are other people both it's quality of

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Speaker 13: people you interviewed pernav. I mean, we have exceptional people

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Speaker 13: in investment, banking and sales and trading, and I put

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Speaker 13: right next to that technology. But it's related because those

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Speaker 13: people deploying technology. So there are thousands of technology projects

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Speaker 13: and then there are hundreds of AI projects, all of

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Speaker 13: which are meant to do a better job for customers,

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Speaker 13: consumer research, how we deliver.

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Speaker 10: Things to people.

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Speaker 13: And if you don't move, you know you're going to

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Speaker 13: be left behind. I mean, I remind me you could

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Speaker 13: be a country or a company. You do not have

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Speaker 13: a divine right to success. You know, we mentioned as

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Speaker 13: management learnings as I did. You can see it on

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Speaker 13: YouTube and all that. But I put out to people,

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Speaker 13: look at the bank, look at no Keia, BlackBerry, Sears,

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Speaker 13: Kmart bearster Lehman, I can chapter of diverse a failed

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Speaker 13: companies usually because they're complacent, arrogant. They think they're on

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Speaker 13: the top of the top of the world and they're not.

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Speaker 13: There are competitors coming everywhere, and you should assume that's

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Speaker 13: gonna be true.

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Speaker 17: Do you see competitors coming for the US?

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Speaker 10: Yeah? Where Europe? About the countries countries, Yeah.

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Speaker 13: I think Kerestormer, Mers and Macrone. I think Macrone's on

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Speaker 13: the best political leaders in the planet today. Okay, I

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Speaker 13: think here Stormer is smart, devoted, There's ay the right

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Speaker 13: things public and privately.

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Speaker 10: All of them talking about growing.

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Speaker 13: The economies, thank god, pro business, pro capital, and they're

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Speaker 13: doing all of that to improve the lot of their citizens.

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Speaker 10: It's not about what they're doing for JP. Morgan.

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Speaker 13: And if I was Europe, absolutely I'd want to great

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Speaker 13: live in the UK military, economic, and I would reform as.

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Speaker 10: Best I can in all of European things.

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Speaker 13: But they're all talking about now deregulation, simplification and yeah,

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Speaker 13: they show it could be in America, and that would

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Speaker 13: be good for America.

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Speaker 10: It doesn't make me say it. It makes me happy that

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Speaker 10: they're strong. And then you know their allies.

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Speaker 13: I want our allies to be strong and powerful military

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Speaker 13: and economically.

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Speaker 17: Do you worry about us supremacy actually exceptionalism?

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Speaker 13: Yeah, I look, I never believe are quite that exceptional.

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Speaker 13: I mean, remember, America is an unbelievable country with freedoms

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Speaker 13: and the gifts of God and you know, water, food, energy,

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Speaker 13: and then the gifts of founding fall is called freedom

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Speaker 13: of religion, freedom of speech from an enterprise that those

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Speaker 13: dwarf everything, and so we still have the most prosperous

442
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:01,800
Speaker 13: economy the world's ever. But the Americans shouldn't take it

443
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:04,480
Speaker 13: as a divine rights succes either. We've slowed ourselves down

444
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:08,359
Speaker 13: with regulation, stupid bureaucracy. You know, we're not getting We

445
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 13: haven't done budgets in years, you know, So now we

446
00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:14,240
Speaker 13: should assume it's forever. I don't think we'll still be

447
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 13: pre eminent, you know, militarily and economically for a long time,

448
00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:20,040
Speaker 13: you know. But if we don't do everything right, we

449
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,400
Speaker 13: can lose that too. You have twenty thirty forty years

450
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:25,400
Speaker 13: from now, and I think very important that is America.

451
00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:28,880
Speaker 13: The goal of America should be to help the military

452
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,560
Speaker 13: alliances of the Western world and to help the economic

453
00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:34,240
Speaker 13: alliance of the Western world to walk side by side

454
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,720
Speaker 13: like you did in victory in Europe day the other

455
00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:40,159
Speaker 13: day here to strengthen the Western world and hold it together,

456
00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:42,399
Speaker 13: you know, not the cause of the fragments, and so

457
00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 13: I think we have to work hard to make sure

458
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:44,639
Speaker 13: that's the case.

459
00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 17: Do you worry about the deficits and do you worry

460
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:49,320
Speaker 17: actually in the US, And do you worry also about

461
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:53,399
Speaker 17: the US dollar remaining as a reserve currency? Do you

462
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,240
Speaker 17: think Europe has what it takes to try.

463
00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:56,200
Speaker 10: And put the euro in there?

464
00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,480
Speaker 13: Yeah, So I think I should have mentioned definite upfront

465
00:21:58,480 --> 00:21:59,879
Speaker 13: as being one of the issues you have to deal.

466
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,199
Speaker 13: And I think acid prices are quite high too, and

467
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:06,320
Speaker 13: those create various risks for America. Our deficit is almost

468
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:09,080
Speaker 13: two trillion dollars six or seven percent of GDP, the

469
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:11,960
Speaker 13: largest peacetime deficit ever, and we have one hundred percent

470
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,399
Speaker 13: debt to GDP. That one hundred percent debt to GDP

471
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:19,600
Speaker 13: is kind of universal almost around Europe on average, but

472
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:20,960
Speaker 13: your deficit is a much smaller.

473
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 10: Does that create a risk?

474
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,440
Speaker 13: Absolutely, it creates a risk of inflation. To me, it

475
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 13: creates a risk of higher long term rates. Well, you know,

476
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:31,440
Speaker 13: but America will a dollar that week. I don't know.

477
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:33,160
Speaker 13: That's a slightly different thing. I think you could see

478
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:35,440
Speaker 13: rates go up, the long bond rates go up, and

479
00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 13: you know that might slow down to growth. And that's

480
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 13: how we you know, kind of a stagflation kind of scenario.

481
00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:43,879
Speaker 17: Would you I mean you must see President Trump regularly.

482
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:46,280
Speaker 10: What do you tell what would you tell me?

483
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 13: I talked to all of us. I talked to all

484
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:50,640
Speaker 13: of the folks there. I wrote about my chairman's letter.

485
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 13: I mean we have first of all, America should worry

486
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,239
Speaker 13: about things we can do better. You know, I call

487
00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 13: it blue tape. I mean our regular we are out

488
00:22:57,840 --> 00:22:59,920
Speaker 13: of control. We're doing the same stuff that they did

489
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,639
Speaker 13: year that you know virtually, you know, the American publican

490
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 13: I don't know the gdpeper person of Europe has gone

491
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,679
Speaker 13: from something like ninety percent of Americas to sixty five percent.

492
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:13,439
Speaker 13: And they did it to themselves, rules, regulations, over complication.

493
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:16,119
Speaker 13: They started the European Union, which I think is a

494
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:17,640
Speaker 13: huge accomplishment of mankind.

495
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 10: They got to finish it.

496
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:20,960
Speaker 13: And here they they called the Capital Markets Union, the

497
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:22,920
Speaker 13: Banking Union. You know, they have to create a big

498
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 13: common market of four and fifty million people. And so

499
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:30,359
Speaker 13: in America it's the same thing. It's regulations, it's permitting.

500
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 13: You know, we've overdone, We've wasted a lot of money

501
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:36,439
Speaker 13: in the green economy. It's getting jobs back, it's training

502
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 13: in schools, it's fixing immigration. So we've stopped at the border.

503
00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 13: But now we have to have a more merit based immigration,

504
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 13: more seasonal immigration, you know, things that can help the

505
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,679
Speaker 13: country grow. And then we have to work on our

506
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 13: military alliances and economic alliances. And that's for the sake

507
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 13: of the future free and democratic world.

508
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,800
Speaker 17: But on the economic alliance, is there a concern that

509
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:59,479
Speaker 17: actually certain countries in Europe or elsewhere will choose non

510
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 17: USBN for bondage fences, will choose non US asset managers

511
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 17: to manage their pensions.

512
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 13: Yeah, there'll be a little of that, you know. I mean,

513
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,440
Speaker 13: you know, we Irritain a lot of people, so I

514
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:11,399
Speaker 13: run into them, they say, you know, like they're not

515
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:14,360
Speaker 13: buying our you know, Kentucky bourbon or stuff like that

516
00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 13: there'll be some of that, and I think it's perfectly

517
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 13: reasonable for you know, I spoke to a lot of

518
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 13: investors here. They're thinking about the ass allocation of the

519
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:26,640
Speaker 13: Ied State's well they diminished. Possibly is America a banded

520
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 13: investment destination out If you're going to take all of

521
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,560
Speaker 13: your money and put it in one country, it would

522
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:34,240
Speaker 13: still be America. I mean, it's still the most prosperous

523
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 13: nation of the planet. It's got the best military in

524
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 13: the planet, It's got huge amounts of immigrant innovation.

525
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,440
Speaker 10: People are catching up. That's a good thing.

526
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 13: You know, China's doing some very good innovation and medical

527
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 13: and AI, and we should assume they're continue to do that.

528
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 13: But America still got the best our gdpeople versus eighty

529
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:54,159
Speaker 13: five thousand dollars, you know, China's fifteen thousand dollars.

530
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 10: We haven't. They're ashamed about.

531
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:57,800
Speaker 13: We should fix our problems because we could grow a

532
00:24:57,840 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 13: lot faster, which help all of our citizens.

533
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,359
Speaker 17: But if you put too many tariffs and actually too

534
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 17: much uncertainty, does that not squander Actually a lot of

535
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:06,399
Speaker 17: the assets that you listed.

536
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:08,399
Speaker 13: I think they're doing the right thing now, which is

537
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 13: the back off of it. But you know, the Secretary

538
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 13: of Treasury do the hard work of figuring out what's

539
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:16,200
Speaker 13: the right thing to do if they're unfair trade things,

540
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:18,199
Speaker 13: to do something about it, you know, but they have

541
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,560
Speaker 13: backed off of specific things in specific industries.

542
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:23,159
Speaker 10: And how that's the right thing to do.

543
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:26,880
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544
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545
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