1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:07,320 Speaker 1: Trades, Guka, What all the good for? Absolutely nothing if 2 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:11,000 Speaker 1: you don't know who you're trading for. Welcome back to 3 00:00:11,039 --> 00:00:14,000 Speaker 1: Fantasy Pro's MLB. I am Chris Welsh, and I am 4 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:17,360 Speaker 1: here to guide you on what and who to target 5 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:20,880 Speaker 1: in today's video and not sing. Before we get to 6 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:23,279 Speaker 1: the video, check out Fantasy pros Premium today. It's the 7 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 1: most powerful tools in fantasy. We just completed the first 8 00:00:26,960 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 1: month of the season and guess what the real work 9 00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:33,920 Speaker 1: begins now. To comment on this video, something nice, particularly 10 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 1: maybe about my singing, You can have a chance to 11 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:39,879 Speaker 1: win a free upgrade on us. Subscribe and comment and 12 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 1: you're all set to win. Okay, let's get to the 13 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: five players I am trading for now. First up is 14 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Jack Sewinsky. Jack is smoking hot over 15 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: the last two weeks, though he's done some serious damage 16 00:00:56,680 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 1: five homers, five stolen bases while hitting over four hundred. 17 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:03,360 Speaker 1: This is all since April fifteenth. Jack is one of 18 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:05,839 Speaker 1: the big reasons why the Pirates have been so good. 19 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 1: What makes him tough is he really should be a 20 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:10,840 Speaker 1: player that was picked up and probably not traded. The 21 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 1: positive is he is still under fifty percent owned on 22 00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 1: even CBS, which tends to be like the highest of 23 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:19,319 Speaker 1: ownership on players, so he actually might be available. So 24 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 1: maybe this is kind of a pickup. But the other 25 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 1: positive is he is still low enough of a name 26 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 1: that an owner may feel that they're selling high. This 27 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 1: could be true, but we're buying high because of what 28 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:34,680 Speaker 1: we see underneath it. All top ten percent in average TV, 29 00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:37,720 Speaker 1: top one percent of the league, x slug at six 30 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:41,680 Speaker 1: sixty five, top three percent, WHOBA at four forty three, 31 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 1: and a fifty percent hard rate. That's a bunch of 32 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 1: advanced stats. Goodness. Jack is driving the ball in the 33 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 1: air and he's got a low thirty percent ground ball rate, 34 00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 1: which shows the type of contact that he's making. Jack 35 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 1: already has more stolen bases in twenty one games. Add 36 00:01:57,600 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 1: that to a walk percentage that's around seventeen percent. It 37 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 1: shows all the adjustments he's making as a hitter and 38 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 1: the floor he provides even if he comes back down 39 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 1: a little. Jack is a real twenty twenty threat for 40 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:12,679 Speaker 1: the season, and this is part of the buying high. 41 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:17,919 Speaker 1: Next up, Kansas City Royals first baseman Vinnie pass Quantino. 42 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:21,800 Speaker 1: How hot was pass Quentino during the draft season. The 43 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:23,839 Speaker 1: only thing that ever brought him down was actually bat 44 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 1: x's projections, which were actually like a little tepid about him. 45 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 1: But pass Quentino's twenty twenty three it's been fine. He's 46 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 1: hitting two sixty, though the average is quite a bit 47 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 1: lower than most expectations of who he is as a hitter, 48 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 1: and he's also got five homers. One standout frustration owners 49 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 1: are going to have. He's got eight total RBI in 50 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 1: the month of April. Again, he's been just fine, but 51 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 1: hasn't lived up to those top expectations yet. It looks 52 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:53,639 Speaker 1: like there is more to come out of pass Quentino, 53 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 1: though he's already pushed his ISO up to two twenty 54 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 1: from around one to fifty last year. Vinnip has the 55 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:04,240 Speaker 1: seven nine teenth highest batting average to expected batting average 56 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:09,320 Speaker 1: positive differential in baseball with an XBA at three twelve. 57 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:12,800 Speaker 1: Vinnie's raised his hard hit percentage now over fifty three 58 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 1: percent that was sitting around forty six last year, and 59 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:19,720 Speaker 1: he's lowered his soft hit percentage to around only seven percent. 60 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 1: The only thing Vinnie hasn't been doing and probably leading 61 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 1: to some of those struggles, is barreling the ball. Up 62 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 1: where that's currently sitting about three percent lower, but something 63 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 1: a big contact hitter can fix with those hard hit numbers. 64 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 1: The team context is important because part of those RBI 65 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 1: struggles has got to do with opportunities. First base isn't 66 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 1: the best, but he just hasn't played at a level 67 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 1: that owners are going to have skyrocket prices on him. 68 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 1: It looks like the best days are ahead here and 69 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 1: this is a chance to get in before they do. 70 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 1: Coming up here, our third trade candidate, we're going to 71 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 1: the pitching side. Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez Edwardo 72 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 1: on the year has a great two point two to 73 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 1: one ERA and a career low one point seven walk 74 00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:07,320 Speaker 1: per nine. His k p nine is low around seven 75 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 1: and a half, and he has a x FIP that's 76 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 1: actually closer to four. Those last two those are not great. 77 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 1: Since April fifteenth, though, has an over nine k per nine. 78 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 1: He has an x FIP and a SIERRA that are 79 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 1: under three. Edwardo during that same time period also has 80 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 1: the tenth best K minus walk percentage, which is twenty 81 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:30,040 Speaker 1: six point eight percent. So take away the walk percentage 82 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:32,920 Speaker 1: from his strikeouts. Boom, there you go. He isn't an 83 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 1: elite strikeout guy, but he just doesn't walk batters. Eduardo 84 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:39,760 Speaker 1: also has a higher whiff rate on both of his 85 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:43,920 Speaker 1: top two pitches, and with his cutter it's almost doubled 86 00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:46,360 Speaker 1: what it was last year on the fifth percentage. All 87 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:48,680 Speaker 1: of this is great, but we know this is a 88 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:51,800 Speaker 1: Tigers pitcher, but we have a very limited market of 89 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 1: available pitchers on the trade market. Quite a few regular 90 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 1: quote bad teams are contending, while a few stubborn contending 91 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:02,840 Speaker 1: teams are struggling, So this just kind of lowers the 92 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:06,360 Speaker 1: available arms if teams decide to get aggressive and try 93 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 1: to make trades. You know, the Mariners we saw just 94 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:11,840 Speaker 1: lost Robbie Ray. The Tigers, they can make the argument 95 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 1: that they're still in but we kind of know that's 96 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 1: probably gonna fade. So this is speculation. But if it 97 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:20,559 Speaker 1: is the case, Edwardo would probably become one of the 98 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:24,279 Speaker 1: best available arms on the trade market. With more run 99 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 1: support and defensive support, his value could double. It's a 100 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 1: what if, and we don't want to base everything on 101 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 1: a trade for us for a trade for him, But 102 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:37,120 Speaker 1: even if he doesn't move, he's been the best Tigers 103 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 1: player to date and he's got a pretty high floor. 104 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 1: Show up your rotation, go check in on Eduardo Rodriguez. 105 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 1: Number two Chicago Cubs outfielder Cody Bellinger. I didn't think 106 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:50,800 Speaker 1: I was gonna say this one, but guess what. I 107 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:55,000 Speaker 1: was a big Bellinger believer last year, and guess what 108 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 1: big l this year. Pretty Much anything he did early on, 109 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:02,359 Speaker 1: I just didn't want to hear it. I was out, 110 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 1: completely out. But some of the changes we're seeing with 111 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:08,719 Speaker 1: Bellinger this year, they have been missing for multiple seasons. 112 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:11,280 Speaker 1: Kind of that extra little recipe for him to get right. 113 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 1: The first and most obvious is his strikeout rate. The 114 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:18,679 Speaker 1: previous two seasons, Bellingers hovered around twenty seven ish percent 115 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 1: K percentage with a low contact rate in the zone 116 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:26,480 Speaker 1: and a high outside zone swing rate, so not making 117 00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 1: contact in the zone and swinging at more stuff outside 118 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:32,080 Speaker 1: as would be expected in what I'm talking about here. 119 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 1: This year, his zone contact rate is sitting at a 120 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:39,920 Speaker 1: career high, the outside zone swing percentage is the lowest 121 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:43,720 Speaker 1: since twenty twenty, and his overhall strikeout rate is the 122 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 1: lowest since his MVP season. Bellinger finished April with seven homers, 123 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 1: stole four bases, and hit like just under three hundred boom. Now, 124 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 1: his XBA is about thirty ish five points lower than 125 00:06:56,920 --> 00:07:00,360 Speaker 1: his current batting average, but that XBA, even though it's lower, 126 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:05,040 Speaker 1: is still thirty plus points higher than the previous two seasons. 127 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 1: His wOBA currently is over four hundred, which is in 128 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 1: the top eighth percentile of the league. You'd think the 129 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 1: home hitting environment is what's playing a big role. Well, 130 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:17,960 Speaker 1: guess what. Bellinger only hitting two forty at home, hitting 131 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 1: three sixty on the road so far this year. What 132 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:23,080 Speaker 1: we care about, though, is that this isn't just like 133 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:27,760 Speaker 1: a high babbit stat change thing. This is real, tangible 134 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 1: approach changes. We're not looking at an MVP season again, 135 00:07:31,640 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 1: but maybe we're gonna get a twenty five to twenty season, 136 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 1: twenty five homers, twenty stolen bases, with significant RBI and 137 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 1: run totals. If that happens, Bellinger easily, even with like 138 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 1: a two to fifty batting average, could become a top 139 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:47,640 Speaker 1: three round player, if not top two round player. Easy. 140 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 1: I'm gonna guess he isn't going to even cost though 141 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 1: half of that. I'm gonna check in with owners on 142 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:56,480 Speaker 1: Cody Bellinger and number one on the trade four. We're 143 00:07:56,520 --> 00:08:00,680 Speaker 1: going to Seattle. Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert. Gilbert 144 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:04,080 Speaker 1: has been sneaky good under many of our noses. Twenty 145 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 1: twenty two, Gilbert was fine but unspectacular, twenty two percent 146 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: K percentage over two walks per nine and had like 147 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:14,200 Speaker 1: a mid three ERA. Those are good numbers. Those are fine. 148 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 1: He was good, not great this year, though. He does 149 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:20,120 Speaker 1: have a four to two three ERA. That is about 150 00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 1: the only blip. But it's a big enough blip to 151 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 1: make him tradable for a lot of other people, because 152 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 1: it looks like he's made some major strides everywhere else. 153 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:32,439 Speaker 1: He's using his fastball less from fifty four percent usage 154 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 1: down to forty five percent usage. He added a split 155 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:38,320 Speaker 1: finger to take over for you know what he lost there, 156 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:41,839 Speaker 1: and his K numbers are soaring. Both his split and 157 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:46,439 Speaker 1: his curveball now register thirty plus percent with percentages both 158 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:48,360 Speaker 1: those pitches and those are not even his number one. 159 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:52,080 Speaker 1: He jumped up to an overall thirty percent K percentage, 160 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:55,079 Speaker 1: which equals to a round an eleven K per nine 161 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 1: and only a four percent walk rate. He has an 162 00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:01,640 Speaker 1: expected ERA. This is the big one. Everyone's gonna focus 163 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:04,120 Speaker 1: on that four two three era. He has an expected 164 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 1: ERA of two point eight zero and almost ten percent 165 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 1: less hard hit percentage against from hitters. So Gilbert is 166 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:16,720 Speaker 1: quietly becoming more efficient and dominant. The big focus in 167 00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 1: Seattle's on the loss of Ray. Now the Mariners are 168 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:22,199 Speaker 1: going to adjust. Gilbert is the guy to step up. 169 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 1: His underlying stats read of a top twenty starting pitcher, 170 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 1: but his price kind of like with Bellinger, probably not 171 00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 1: even half that. We've speculated on some underperforming big names 172 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 1: before on this channel, but this is a guy who's 173 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:41,000 Speaker 1: just missing the era and changing for the better. Everywhere 174 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:45,439 Speaker 1: else I am buying Logan Gilbert and not my friends, 175 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 1: is where I am in on the trade market. These 176 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:51,240 Speaker 1: of course don't speak to like your needs necessarily, so 177 00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:54,120 Speaker 1: use them accordingly and let me know who you're trading for. 178 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:58,800 Speaker 1: Logan Gilbert, Cody Bellinger, Eduardo Pascuentino, Jackswinsky. Who of that 179 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 1: group have you got or did you make another move? 180 00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:04,360 Speaker 1: What does it look like? Maybe you have some other 181 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 1: great trade ideas for everybody, So comment in the video 182 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:09,360 Speaker 1: below so everybody can see what you got going on. 183 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 1: If you do and your subscribe, you're gonna be entered 184 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:15,480 Speaker 1: into win a premium Fantasy Pros account. It's one of 185 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:18,400 Speaker 1: the best things you're gonna find in the fantasy baseball industry, 186 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 1: so do it now. You can find me on Twitter 187 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 1: at is it the Welsh and here Joe Pi's apa 188 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 1: myself Monday through Friday right here on the Fantasy Pros 189 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 1: MLB channel at noon Eastern. Thanks for hanging out and 190 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:32,079 Speaker 1: I'll talk to you guys next time for indos peace. 191 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Baseball podcast. Follow 192 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:39,960 Speaker 1: us on Twitter at Fantasy Pros MLB, and subscribe to 193 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:43,920 Speaker 1: our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB.