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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jailey.

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Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg And

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Speaker 1: we could get some headlines to Hey, what the Mexican

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Speaker 1: mismiss us to and I agree with it? In eight

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Speaker 1: oh to Wall Street time, the shock of the president's

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Speaker 1: tweet and then getting to this Friday morning in Washington,

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Speaker 1: which is a good reason to speak with Eric Farnsworth,

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Speaker 1: Council the America's in the American Society. UH. And he

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Speaker 1: joins us today with immense experience on the border and

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Speaker 1: the issues. Eric an open question to begin the discussion,

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Speaker 1: what was your reaction when you saw the presidential tweet? Well,

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Speaker 1: good morning to both of you. It's great to be

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Speaker 1: with you. Reaction with surprise, a little bit of shock,

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Speaker 1: and some frustration because truly, in order to address these issues,

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Speaker 1: we have to work together with Mexico by definition. UH.

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Speaker 1: And it seems that if the president is now threatening

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Speaker 1: Mexico and saying unless you do things which you know

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Speaker 1: we're demanding We're really going to make your life a

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Speaker 1: lot more difficult. I'm not sure that's the way to

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Speaker 1: work together with somebody whose cooperation you fundamentally require. Let's

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Speaker 1: talk about what is legal and what isn't legal. Can

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Speaker 1: the President actually do this? We're not sure. According to

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Speaker 1: some of the advisors, apparently according to the nineteen seventy

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Speaker 1: seven legislation, it's a possibility. But this really hasn't been tested. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: people of significance like Um Chuck Grassley and the Senate

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Speaker 1: have said quite clearly this is an overstretch of presidential

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Speaker 1: tariff authority, and their Senate is going to look at that.

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Speaker 1: But it's taken a lot of people by surprise, and

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Speaker 1: I think this is something that's going to have to

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Speaker 1: be worked out in the coming to us. Well, Eric,

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Speaker 1: how does the Senate formalized that pushback if they wanted to?

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Speaker 1: What's the process that takes place? Well, you know, it's

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Speaker 1: really difficult because if the President declares the national emergency, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, his authority on many issues is really quite profound.

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Speaker 1: And as we've seen actually with tariffs against Mexico already

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Speaker 1: and Canada, at which the Senate may have disagreed with,

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Speaker 1: but really wasn't able to do much to reverse Eric.

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Speaker 1: You were at Princeton for a while Woodward Wilson, and

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Speaker 1: as you know, one of the giants of American game theories,

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Speaker 1: Avonage dicks it and he has just been extraordinary thinking

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Speaker 1: about how we do strategy. If we go back to

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Speaker 1: his two thousand and eight The Art of Strategy, a

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Speaker 1: game theorist Guide to Success, how do we have success

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Speaker 1: extricating ourselves from the president's original game theory. You know,

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Speaker 1: this is a question that I and many people are asking. Um.

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Speaker 1: You know, we are going down a path that's requiring

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Speaker 1: essentially Mexico at a political level to react negatively. And

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Speaker 1: you've seen Imlow already react yesterday with the letter he'll

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Speaker 1: be speaking again today, which has amplified the rhetoric. Has said, Look,

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Speaker 1: this isn't the way to react to these very difficult

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Speaker 1: social issues. We need to cooperate. Um. And and so,

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Speaker 1: you know, nations have their own constituencies, and for a

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Speaker 1: while they tried to get along. But when it becomes

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Speaker 1: clear that they can't, uh, they fundamentally changed their views.

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Speaker 1: And that's what my main concern is, that's my main

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Speaker 1: worry is that Mexico is going to begin to see

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Speaker 1: its own political interest no longer to cooperate with the

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Speaker 1: United States, and to return to the days frankly before NAFTA,

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Speaker 1: when the cooperation was episodic at best, and and the

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Speaker 1: relationship was quite cool. I mean, NAFTA fundamentally changed that,

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Speaker 1: and we really threatened to go back to those days.

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Speaker 1: Where are you know one of our closest neighbors is

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Speaker 1: uh is in a very cool relationship with US. I

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Speaker 1: think that would be an economic and frankly social and

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Speaker 1: and and foreign policy disaster. So Eric, let's talk about that.

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Speaker 1: Let's explore it further. The headline drops across the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: that the Mexican President says Mexico will not fall in provocation.

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Speaker 1: We think all conflicts should be solved with dialogue. Maybe

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Speaker 1: he won't get that dialogue. Eric, to your point, the

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Speaker 1: Chinese at the moment, most people assume, are whipping up

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Speaker 1: nationalism through propaganda in state media. Could Hamblow do the

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Speaker 1: same thing? Yeah, he absolutely could, and to this point

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Speaker 1: he has not, which has frankly been a surprise to

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Speaker 1: a lot of people since he was came into office

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Speaker 1: last July. But you know, his own economy continues to struggle.

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Speaker 1: He has his own domestic issues that you've talked about

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Speaker 1: in your program before. And you know, for political purposes,

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Speaker 1: if if now you have your largest trading partner, your

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Speaker 1: your northern neighbor doing things that intentionally make your life

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Speaker 1: more difficult, at some point, you're going to kick back.

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Speaker 1: And I think that's probably where we're heading right now.

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Speaker 1: But you know, there is a long standing strain of

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Speaker 1: nationalism in Mexican politics, and we've tried to put that

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Speaker 1: underneath the surface for a long time on a bipartisan basis.

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Speaker 1: That effort has largely succeeded. But once you've scratched that surface,

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Speaker 1: you don't have to go down too far before the

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Speaker 1: Mexican people, who are very proud and very uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: appropriately so begins to think, well, wait a minute, why

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Speaker 1: are we doing this with the US. I think that's

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Speaker 1: well said, Ericon, and that brings up the idea that

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Speaker 1: maybe we're more familiar with the trade culture tensions of

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Speaker 1: Beijing and Washington than we are with Mexico City. Tell

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Speaker 1: us what kind of advice the leader of Mexico will

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Speaker 1: receive in the next twenty four hours he has constituencies

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Speaker 1: that he has to speak to. What kind of council

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Speaker 1: will we'll we'll we'll mL get Right now, he's assuredly

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Speaker 1: receiving conflicting advice, and that's part of problem. Uh. Several

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Speaker 1: of his advisers, no doubts, are telling him, look, uh,

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Speaker 1: this is a negotiating position from President Trump. He's putting

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Speaker 1: it out there. He's suggesting very aggressively but nonetheless negotiating

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Speaker 1: to try to get Mexico to to do certain things.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk to him, Let's see if we can come

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Speaker 1: to an amicable resolution. And then there are going to

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Speaker 1: be others, no doubt, who are telling him, look what

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Speaker 1: he's been doing with China, look at some of the

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Speaker 1: ways that the US President has been negotiating. No matter

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Speaker 1: what we give up, it's never gonna be enough. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna have to stand up for our own rights. That

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Speaker 1: battle right now, no doubt, is playing out in Mexico City.

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Speaker 1: Eric Fonsworth, great to catch up a really, really thoughtful stuff,

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Speaker 1: and we appreciate your time on the phone. Laura Rosen,

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Speaker 1: did you want to guess a macro policy perspective? Senior

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Speaker 1: economist Laura Always great to get your insight you if

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Speaker 1: you want to inflation in America. Hi, great to hear

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Speaker 1: from you. So look, I think that part of this

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Speaker 1: decline in core PC inflation is probably transitory. There's some

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Speaker 1: pieces that have led the index lower and will likely reverse.

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Speaker 1: In addition, you know, increased parists are likely to boost

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Speaker 1: prices over the next six to twelve months. Uh, those

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Speaker 1: will be one off level effects, so we should see

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Speaker 1: a boost. But we think the underlying trended inflation is

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Speaker 1: still very muted, and the factors that are contributing to

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Speaker 1: that are not going away their technology, demographics. So really

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Speaker 1: a mixed bag here. So, Laura, if it's not transitory

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Speaker 1: in the way that Chairman Pal thinks it is, and

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Speaker 1: even Vice check Clarence don't mentioned it might be in

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Speaker 1: yesterday's conversation of the Economic Club in New York. Here

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Speaker 1: in New York, when does the wake up call for

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve come? Laura, Well, I said, some of

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Speaker 1: it is likely transitory, some of it is not. But

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Speaker 1: you know, inflation over the next six to twelve months

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Speaker 1: will be reverting back to two percent, both as some

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Speaker 1: of the transitory factors and terrorists start to to add

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Speaker 1: to it, and I think interesting the said it seems

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Speaker 1: inclined to let that happen. I don't think they're going

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Speaker 1: to push against that. They've been below their target for

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Speaker 1: many years, and they're gonna opportunists opportunistically allow some reflation

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Speaker 1: and off of this economic data, particularly the revisions that

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Speaker 1: we see in the inflation data, yields a little bit

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Speaker 1: higher than they were with a great compression of twenty

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Speaker 1: minutes ago. Future is negative thirty four now negative thirty

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Speaker 1: So a little improvement in the tape as well. Laura,

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Speaker 1: you have been fabulous at macro policy perspectives of looking

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Speaker 1: for what I'm gonna call lower economic growth. Just you

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Speaker 1: haven't I haven't seen you people write about the you

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Speaker 1: know it's going to be pretty good solid economic growth.

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Speaker 1: How do we get back to solid economic growth? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think you take the terrorists off the table. I

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Speaker 1: don't think that's that's helping. And this uncertainty right now

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Speaker 1: is really a risk right where we're an environment of

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Speaker 1: prolonged uncertainty where the rules of the game on trade

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Speaker 1: are changing. So what happens with the announcement last night?

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Speaker 1: The confidence I mean John Williams ten days ago with Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: That's what he started with was business confidence. Does the

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Speaker 1: actions of last night and what we're going to see

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Speaker 1: through this Friday, does it shatter further business confidence? I

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Speaker 1: think it certainly is a risk. We've already seen some

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Speaker 1: of the p M i's uh, you know, moderate um.

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Speaker 1: They're reacting to flower global growth and the risk of terrorists.

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Speaker 1: I think on the consumer side, we started the year

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Speaker 1: on a pretty strong footing, and the labor market has

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Speaker 1: remained very strong. The domestic service sector is not is

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Speaker 1: more insulated from the teriffs and is enjoying a very

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Speaker 1: positive feedback loop between hiring and consumer spending. So you know,

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Speaker 1: we're starting this on a very strong footing for the

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Speaker 1: services side. The question is how much the business and

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Speaker 1: the terrorists really spill over and potentially, you know, weaken

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Speaker 1: the labor market and hiring. That's really what we're looking for.

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Speaker 1: Our base case is a soft landing in the economy.

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Speaker 1: We don't have a rate cut priced into our forecast,

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Speaker 1: even though the market is looking for one. But that

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Speaker 1: will really depend on what happens with terrorists and how

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Speaker 1: businesses respond. So Laura, let's talk about that. Because New

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Speaker 1: Cash Cali, the president of Minneapolis FED talking to Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: TV very briefly and saying that essentially we've seen more

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Speaker 1: retric than action on the trade story so far. Would

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Speaker 1: you agree with that, Laura, I mean, it's hard to

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Speaker 1: say that when overnight we see another five percent levied

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Speaker 1: and just in the last month, you know, the ten

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Speaker 1: percent on two billion of Chinese imports were as to

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Speaker 1: three and fifty billions. So I I don't think I

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Speaker 1: would agree with that. I think think things are escalating

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Speaker 1: um and we don't know as of right now how

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Speaker 1: businesses are going to respond to these new terrorists. I'd

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Speaker 1: say today they have relied on things other than price

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Speaker 1: increases to mitigate the effects of the tariffs, and they

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Speaker 1: have been somewhat successful, but it's unclear if they can

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Speaker 1: continue to do so. I got any more questions. You

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Speaker 1: gotta we got we gotta get you in against soon

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Speaker 1: Laurus or macro policy perspectives, uh there on some of

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Speaker 1: the dynamics of this economy. This is the essay of

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Speaker 1: the morning. It is from Henrietta Treys at Vada v

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Speaker 1: E d A. She is with Veda Partners, and it

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Speaker 1: is extraordinary how someone with her grizzled perspect active of

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Speaker 1: Washington and Trade Realities can piece together a research note

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Speaker 1: out of the carnage. You can get it from Beta

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Speaker 1: Partners in Washington. Henrietta, you have a chart which shows

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Speaker 1: that beer imports from Mexico are a lot smaller than

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Speaker 1: we perceive. The technology component, the sophistication component, cars, vehicle parts,

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Speaker 1: delivery trucks, tractors is a big hunk of it, and

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Speaker 1: it all goes back to the New World. Just in time.

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Speaker 1: Explain just in time this morning to our listeners and

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Speaker 1: to the President of the United States. Thank you so

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Speaker 1: much for having me common for that very generous intro.

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Speaker 1: Just in time is such a big deal, and I

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Speaker 1: think it gets overlooked by you know, the average bear

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Speaker 1: in America, but certainly is something that the manufacturing corporations,

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Speaker 1: whether it's autos or computers as you mentioned, are extricably

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Speaker 1: linked to this and can't work without it. Just in

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Speaker 1: Time is effectively the most efficient strategy to have a

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Speaker 1: supply chain that involves Canada, Mexico, the United States and

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Speaker 1: is one of the main reasons that since we passed NAFTA,

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Speaker 1: we've created thirty five million jobs in America. And it

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Speaker 1: is a huge driver in UM making sure that corporations

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Speaker 1: can have all the little widgets that go into their products.

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Speaker 1: And as a result, they have inventories that are less

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Speaker 1: than three days worth of what their factories can produce.

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Speaker 1: So there are currently cargoes going back and forth. Henrietta,

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Speaker 1: we all have our myth making structures of any given

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Speaker 1: topic China, Mexico, the Boston Red Sox, whatever. And I

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Speaker 1: would suggest, like for examp example, South America, some clowns

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Speaker 1: like me are locked back in. Butch Cassidy and Bolivia

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Speaker 1: and Katherine Ross in a movie in nine. What's the

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Speaker 1: biggest myth about Mexico that I and my listeners get wrong?

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Speaker 1: What's the thing that drives you nuts about our inequated view?

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Speaker 1: I think the piece of missing is that we've moved

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Speaker 1: from a manufacturing economy to a services economy, and those

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Speaker 1: service economy jobs are the ones that create the next

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Speaker 1: new awesome thing in your car and create the next

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Speaker 1: new fantastic piece of your computer that allows you to

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Speaker 1: be you know, safer, more efficient, UM do what you

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Speaker 1: need to do more quickly. And the manufacturing jobs that

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Speaker 1: we don't necessarily want and certainly aren't really trained for anymore,

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Speaker 1: are mostly in Mexico and other countries outside of the

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Speaker 1: United States, and so it seems like a zero sum game,

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Speaker 1: and in reality, everybody has benefited substantially from that free train.

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Speaker 1: You've got this wonderful chart the Observatory of Economic Complexity, computers, telephones,

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Speaker 1: video displays, insulated wire leads. The way the tariff increase

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Speaker 1: I'm going to assume on those industries is nonlinear. Five Okay, fine,

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Speaker 1: it's it's a rounding error. Then it's not, isn't it

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Speaker 1: right exactly? And so it escalates to speaking with the

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Speaker 1: auto manufacturers last night, they were up in arms staying

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Speaker 1: what the heck is going on? Because that is a

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Speaker 1: devastating blow. As anybody who's ever gone into a dealership

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Speaker 1: to buy a car knows, the sticker price is not

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Speaker 1: very margin heavy. You can't really lower the price much

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Speaker 1: more than the dealerships already are. So for an auto

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Speaker 1: industry UM situation where even a five percent tiraffy increases

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Speaker 1: the big deal for them UM. And I think for

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Speaker 1: the manufacturers they're extraordinarily concerned because this is just immediately

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Speaker 1: increases the cost of their imports and the effective date

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Speaker 1: is June tenth, so that's just right down the road.

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Speaker 1: There's no maneuvering to shift your supply chain in ten days.

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Speaker 1: That's not an option delivery trucks. I mean, let's go

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Speaker 1: to something, you know. Let's get back to beer. Akay.

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Speaker 1: Beer is a on on a big rectangle, folks. Beer

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Speaker 1: makes up one of the space. Henrietta's type is so

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Speaker 1: small I can't read it. But the answer is Corona beer.

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Speaker 1: I guess is imported in are you telling me Corona

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Speaker 1: beer is a just in time process. Well, the ships,

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Speaker 1: the sorry, the cargo ships go back and forth. Um,

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Speaker 1: the truckers go back and forth every single day. Um.

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Speaker 1: And as we saw maybe a month ago when they

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Speaker 1: when President Trump ordered sort of a pretty intense clamped

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Speaker 1: down at the border, one of the most immediate impacts

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Speaker 1: was on those day to day shipments. Then we're coming across,

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Speaker 1: including on Corona, on Negro, Madelo, takat all that fun stuff. Um,

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Speaker 1: they are getting stuck at the border with thirteen hour

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Speaker 1: lines that make it impossible for a driver to even

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Speaker 1: make the trip that they're playing. Go on. And we

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Speaker 1: saw back then they started shipping stuff over air cargo,

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Speaker 1: which immediately increases the cost of your shipping by anywhere,

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Speaker 1: which in forty thou and a hundred thousand dollars. So

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Speaker 1: unless you want to pay more for that corona, you

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Speaker 1: do not want to support this time. Henry in the

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Speaker 1: Trades with his Veda Partners V E. D A Veda Partners, Washington.

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Speaker 1: Without question the granularity of this arch moment in Mexico.

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Speaker 1: We heard from the President of Mexico earlier with what

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna call appropriate headlines Matto Liasis and Fox was

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Speaker 1: great about the scope, scale and size. David Fickling at

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion, the scope, scale and size of Mexico versus China, Henrietta,

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Speaker 1: how ginormous is this border relationship for business and trade

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Speaker 1: with Mexico. I mean, it's three hundred and fifty billion

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Speaker 1: dollars worth of flow just from the US to Mexico. UM, sorry,

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Speaker 1: from Mexico to the United States overall, I want to

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Speaker 1: say it's something like one point two trillion dollars worth

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Speaker 1: of trade every year. It's extraordinary. It's the third largest

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Speaker 1: trading partner that we have UM. And you know, one

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Speaker 1: of the interesting components and problematic would be if they

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Speaker 1: respond if Mexico respond met and put tariffs on all

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Speaker 1: our goods. As we've seen historically, they target the trade

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Speaker 1: is political, so they target the Red States since we

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Speaker 1: have a Republican president. So this is an immediate tariff

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Speaker 1: on pork, on apples, on wheat, um. The corn industry

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Speaker 1: was spared last time around, but they could easily be

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Speaker 1: hit again. And I don't know if you've talked to

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Speaker 1: any farmers lately, but they are getting slammed across the

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Speaker 1: world west, not just with Paris, but with the weather.

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Speaker 1: So you know, the the substantial negatives associated with this

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Speaker 1: is what's it due to avocados, you know, and we

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Speaker 1: live off our avocado toast and all that. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's granular. And I Paul, we're gonna walk into whole paycheck.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna walk into whole paycheck. And the avocados are

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Speaker 1: going to go up tomorrow or June eleventh. Absolutely, I mean,

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Speaker 1: they certainly should. And one of the things that we

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Speaker 1: know is that the customers in border patrol um can

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Speaker 1: update these tariff ratios in the swelve hours or so.

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Speaker 1: If you're going to whole face, I recommend stocking up

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Speaker 1: right now. UM send me something Henry the trade, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much, greatly appreciate it. Just spectacular granularity. I

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Speaker 1: still can't say U s m c A, Paul Sweeney,

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Speaker 1: what do you say? I just say, Noon AFTA. I

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Speaker 1: like that trade update, Noon Afta in Mexico. Henrietta trades

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Speaker 1: with Veda Partners as well. How's the new uber doing?

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Speaker 1: David Kirkpatrick was just genius this morning. Yeah, you know,

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Speaker 1: they didn't give the market any reason to do anything different,

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Speaker 1: which is they said, we're on our track. We have

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Speaker 1: a big opportunity, but we're gonna spend money to get there.

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Speaker 1: So the numbers were right in line, but they didn't

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Speaker 1: give anybody a sense of, Okay, we're gonna make profits

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Speaker 1: this year, next year or the year after. So there's

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Speaker 1: still that uncertainty out there. But uh, they no negative surprises,

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Speaker 1: was what I was, just like you predicted yesterday that

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Speaker 1: would just get through it. So the stocks, you know,

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Speaker 1: kind of stable here. Okay, Henrietta trades, Thank you so much,

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Speaker 1: Just fabulous. Let us stagger back to the markets. You

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Speaker 1: know we're getting an opening. Why should I quote it now?

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Speaker 1: Who knows what we will be other than I've got

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Speaker 1: great respect Paul for a two year one point three

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Speaker 1: right now, Paul, Yeah, falling below two percent, just extraordinary.

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Speaker 1: Here in SMP down thirty points roughly. Here, let's bring

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Speaker 1: in Lori Cavassin and Laurie is a head of US

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Speaker 1: equity strategy RBC Capital Markets. She joins us on the phone. So, Laurie,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for being with us. How are you

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Speaker 1: viewing this six percent plus pull back we've seen in

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Speaker 1: US equity markets over the last several weeks. Is this

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Speaker 1: the beginning of something or is this a buying opportunity?

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Speaker 1: So my guess is that we're about halfway through with

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Speaker 1: what we ultimately expect to be about a ten percent pullback. UM.

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Speaker 1: You know, we we came into the summer thinking that

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Speaker 1: we were we were due for a correction, that we

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Speaker 1: were a bit overdue for a pullback. UM. When we

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Speaker 1: looked at our valuation model, we were right back to

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Speaker 1: where we were in December. In September twenty eighteen, when

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Speaker 1: we looked at the CFTC futures positioning data, we were

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Speaker 1: getting pretty close to where we were last January and

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Speaker 1: last September. You know, we we we've made that view

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Speaker 1: before we got any of the news on China before

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Speaker 1: we got any of this news on Mexico. I think

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Speaker 1: that what we are going through right now, we are

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Speaker 1: having these very surprising catalysts on They're kind of coming

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Speaker 1: out from left field, spooking investors, But the reality is

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Speaker 1: that conditions have been very right for a pullback, um

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Speaker 1: a little bit worse than what we've seen so far.

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Speaker 1: So again just kind of falling up because it seems like,

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Speaker 1: you know, if you talk to most investors, they would

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Speaker 1: probably describe a lot of this move down is trade

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Speaker 1: being the catalyst, but you think it's just more of

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Speaker 1: the market conditions, the market dynamics maybe just kind of

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Speaker 1: and then the trade through a little bit of gasoline

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Speaker 1: on it exactly. I think, you know, I think that

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Speaker 1: that that trade is the match. I think the crowding

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Speaker 1: and the valuation problems that we had were the kerosene.

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Speaker 1: Oh I like that. Yeah, that's like a metaphor. It

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Speaker 1: sounds like a strategist, Lorie. You know, I don't mean

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Speaker 1: to make jokes about it, because we're all going to

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Speaker 1: figure out what to do with our courage and the

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Speaker 1: equity markets over the weekend. If we survived Friday as well,

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Speaker 1: negative to seventies seven right now in the thousand eight

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Speaker 1: nine three correction, is miss Calfasini alluded to, is I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna call it down zero zero zero roughly. Don't quote

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Speaker 1: me on that, Laura. To your point of light, commodities,

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Commodity Index, the inflation adjusted commodity indices, inflation

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Speaker 1: adjusted copper, and on and on our grim, Does that

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Speaker 1: tell me that I've just got to seek shelter in

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Speaker 1: the United States away from commod the commodity world. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, in terms of seeking shelter in the U s.

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Speaker 1: It's it's even as a US equity strategist, Um, it's

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Speaker 1: hard for me to tell people to pile back into

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Speaker 1: the US frankly, because I think everyone's already there. Um.

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Speaker 1: If you look at so where do I go? Okay,

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Speaker 1: where do it's Friday? Come on, where do I go? Well, people,

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Speaker 1: people have been going to bonds more than cash. Look

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Speaker 1: at the yields. I have an equity strategist telling me

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Speaker 1: to buy a one point two year No, Well, what

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Speaker 1: I'm going to tell you to buy? Actually, I'm going

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Speaker 1: to tell you to buy some utility stocks today. I'm

390
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Speaker 1: also going to tell you to buy some consumer staple stocks,

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Speaker 1: and I'm going to tell you to buy the long

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Speaker 1: suffering financials and and the reason why is you've got

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Speaker 1: a relative immunity from these trade war fears. I don't

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Speaker 1: think any part of the market is completely immune UM,

395
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Speaker 1: but I do think they are more insulated than most UM.

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Speaker 1: And you know, I'm not gonna sit here and tell

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Speaker 1: you I think the utilities are cheap, but they're only

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Speaker 1: a little bit expensive. They're well below past peaks relative

399
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Speaker 1: to the market. They have been working over the last month.

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Speaker 1: People are starting to notice the et F money is

401
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Speaker 1: piling in. You can play them for a while longer.

402
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Speaker 1: You only do it because June glass And gave us

403
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Speaker 1: great respect of this morning. I'm enjoying a two point

404
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Speaker 1: one seven percent ten year and the world at Calvisina,

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Speaker 1: and I know she doesn't talk individual stocks. For just

406
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Speaker 1: diamond is launched at three point zero three percent dividend

407
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:05,399
Speaker 1: with a five year fourteen percent dividend growth. Have it?

408
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Speaker 1: And if it's a seven percent dividend growth, the rule

409
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Speaker 1: of seventy two tells you ten years out, you got

410
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Speaker 1: yourself locked in seven percent. Where do you compare that

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Speaker 1: to your two years under two percent? What do you

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Speaker 1: do so LORI The issue, I guess one of the

413
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Speaker 1: questions is you know where you're looking for you suggested earlier.

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Speaker 1: You know, overall a ten percent pull back when we

415
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Speaker 1: kind of get there, is that where you feel like

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Speaker 1: the market has some stability they're irregardless, I guess of

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Speaker 1: what's happening on the kind of the tweet front, you know,

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Speaker 1: you know, we we do think that that it will.

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Speaker 1: If it doesn't, I think you have to look at

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Speaker 1: what the price action is telling you. If ten percent

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Speaker 1: doesn't hold, and that would be about twenty six fifty

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Speaker 1: from the April highs, then I think that the risk

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Speaker 1: is the market is going to be, you know, in

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Speaker 1: recession mode again, so you'll do something like you did

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Speaker 1: back in December. Now I am not there yet. I

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Speaker 1: think we have cushion in the economic data. Frankly, I'm

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Speaker 1: more worried about economy than I am the twenty nineteen economy.

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Speaker 1: But I do I do think by the time we

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Speaker 1: get there will probably by the time we get to

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Speaker 1: that ten percent, the valuations will look better. Um, the

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Speaker 1: positioning won't be quite as crowded. And also I think

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Speaker 1: once we get to reporting season in July and August,

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Speaker 1: earning the expectations will be reset, and even if they

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Speaker 1: move lower, once you have that reset, people will will

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Speaker 1: will HEPA really priced in the bad news and you

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Speaker 1: can move on, Laurie. Thank you, Laurie Calvisino. Where this

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Speaker 1: RBC capital markets all the choices to be made given

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Speaker 1: the news slow. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or

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Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom

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Speaker 1: Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.

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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio