WEBVTT - How Online Dating Is Reshaping the Entire Economy 0:00:11.200 --> 0:00:15.080 Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. 0:00:15.160 --> 0:00:19.520 I'm Joe Wasn't All, and I'm Tracy Alloway. Tracy, remember 0:00:19.600 --> 0:00:23.600 how you claimed on a recent episode of the podcast 0:00:23.680 --> 0:00:26.759 that you're a millennial. I knew you were going to 0:00:26.880 --> 0:00:31.000 start with this again. Uh, yeah, I did claim. I 0:00:31.120 --> 0:00:34.279 backed it up to even by your own definition of 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:37.200 being a millennial, which is someone that had Facebook while 0:00:37.240 --> 0:00:40.160 they were in college, I am, in fact a millennial, 0:00:40.240 --> 0:00:43.680 although I am an older one. I admit, Okay, did 0:00:43.720 --> 0:00:46.559 you ever? But here's the thing. Did you ever do 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:52.520 online dating? No? Is this another is this a new 0:00:52.600 --> 0:00:56.240 definition of millennials that you're going to start using? Kind of? 0:00:56.640 --> 0:00:59.920 I mean, don't necessarily, but I do think that's pretty important. 0:01:00.080 --> 0:01:02.920 And the fact that you never did online dating and 0:01:03.000 --> 0:01:05.160 neither did I it kind of makes us both not 0:01:05.280 --> 0:01:08.360 really millennials. Yeah, I think. I mean, I'm definitely not one, 0:01:08.480 --> 0:01:10.600 But I also kind of think maybe that's another thing 0:01:10.640 --> 0:01:13.880 where I'm like, that is a pretty big thing in 0:01:13.920 --> 0:01:17.080 the world that really divides people by a few years, 0:01:17.120 --> 0:01:20.399 wouldn't you say? Yeah? I think so, And I have 0:01:20.480 --> 0:01:25.160 to admit I have absolutely zero personal experience with online dating, 0:01:25.240 --> 0:01:28.240 although I don't know about you, but I've always been 0:01:28.440 --> 0:01:31.880 sort of curious about it, and whenever I meet up 0:01:31.920 --> 0:01:34.800 with my single friends, like I would sometimes borrow their 0:01:34.840 --> 0:01:38.679 phones and look through their Tinder profiles and the Tinder 0:01:38.720 --> 0:01:41.080 app and just sort of play around with it, which 0:01:41.120 --> 0:01:44.080 was kind of interesting to see how it works. Do 0:01:44.120 --> 0:01:48.240 you swipe for them? I do? I do? I swipe 0:01:48.240 --> 0:01:51.040 on everyone and then just see what happens. Yeah, I've 0:01:51.040 --> 0:01:53.440 heard that's like a thing like people who never did 0:01:53.480 --> 0:01:57.760 online dating vicariously swipe it on behalf of their friends. 0:01:58.000 --> 0:02:00.360 I think that's like a phenomenon. Anyway, I do really 0:02:00.440 --> 0:02:03.080 think this is a pretty big bright line dividing one 0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:06.520 generation from the next, and especially because there will never 0:02:06.640 --> 0:02:11.880 probably be another generation in history that didn't have online dating. 0:02:11.960 --> 0:02:13.800 It's kind of a big thing and kind of makes 0:02:13.800 --> 0:02:17.280 me and you more similar to boomers and previous generations 0:02:17.320 --> 0:02:21.079 too than millennials and so forth, so forth. But it 0:02:21.160 --> 0:02:25.160 seems like the implications of the rise of online dating 0:02:25.200 --> 0:02:30.800 are probably still at this point underappreciated and under explored. Yeah, 0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:34.000 it kind of gets to a point that has been 0:02:34.000 --> 0:02:36.760 brought up on previous Odd Lots episodes, which is this 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:39.920 notion that a lot of the economic models that we 0:02:40.000 --> 0:02:45.960 still use today are sometimes based on really outdated notions 0:02:46.040 --> 0:02:48.720 of society. So the idea that we're all going out 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:52.000 to say a bar or a restaurant and meeting our 0:02:52.120 --> 0:02:56.000 future partners or spouses does seem pretty out of date 0:02:56.120 --> 0:02:59.560 given the rise of online dating, and the same for 0:02:59.680 --> 0:03:03.840 you know, meeting your future partner through friends, Like nowadays 0:03:03.880 --> 0:03:07.320 you're just as likely to meet them through an online platform, 0:03:07.360 --> 0:03:11.560 if not more so. So definitely something new that would 0:03:11.639 --> 0:03:14.800 need to be sort of factored into a lot of 0:03:14.840 --> 0:03:18.320 economic models, I think absolutely. You know, like an essence 0:03:18.960 --> 0:03:22.880 of the economy is sort of predicated on people getting 0:03:22.880 --> 0:03:25.280 married and having kids and buying a house and all 0:03:25.280 --> 0:03:27.960 of that stuff, and if that process is going to 0:03:28.080 --> 0:03:30.440 change in some way, then you would imagine there would 0:03:30.480 --> 0:03:34.680 just be all kinds of ripple effects. So anyway, obviously 0:03:34.720 --> 0:03:38.680 we're going to talk about online dating today, but specifically 0:03:38.760 --> 0:03:42.600 we're going to be talking to a hedge fund manager 0:03:42.760 --> 0:03:45.760 who I guess and his spare time or maybe as 0:03:45.880 --> 0:03:49.960 part of investing Will find Out has done a lot 0:03:50.040 --> 0:03:53.440 of research into the world of online dating and even 0:03:53.480 --> 0:03:57.600 put out a very entertaining note on the subject. Examining 0:03:58.240 --> 0:04:01.600 uh from a very from very US data points. So, 0:04:01.680 --> 0:04:07.160 without further ado, let's bring in Dan McMurtry of Tyro Partners. Dan, 0:04:07.280 --> 0:04:09.840 thank you for joining us. Hey, guys, thanks so much 0:04:09.880 --> 0:04:13.080 for having me. So Dan, before we get started, or 0:04:13.120 --> 0:04:15.960 I guess to get us started, why don't you tell 0:04:16.040 --> 0:04:18.760 us a little bit about who you are, what you do, 0:04:19.040 --> 0:04:22.640 and uh, why this was the subject that you thought 0:04:22.720 --> 0:04:26.039 was worth spending your time on going through charge, collecting 0:04:26.120 --> 0:04:28.479 data and even sort of writing up a note on 0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:32.240 the subject. Sure. So I run a small long short 0:04:32.320 --> 0:04:35.479 fund out of Manhattan, UM, and our approach is to 0:04:35.560 --> 0:04:39.000 look for what we think are big thematic drivers that 0:04:39.040 --> 0:04:42.080 are gonna play out over five or ten or twenty years. UM. 0:04:42.400 --> 0:04:45.400 There's a million things you can research, and so when 0:04:45.400 --> 0:04:48.360 we think about how to best allocator research time, UM, 0:04:48.480 --> 0:04:51.120 we don't necessarily want to focus on you know, chief 0:04:51.160 --> 0:04:54.640 socks or expensive stocks from amentum stocks. So much is 0:04:54.680 --> 0:04:58.400 what we think are qualitative angles that are really um 0:04:58.480 --> 0:05:00.560 starting to show up in data but I haven't really 0:05:00.560 --> 0:05:03.880 been discussed. And we especially like things that are kind 0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:07.279 of validated but are not appreciated for the magnitude of 0:05:07.320 --> 0:05:09.480 the change. You know, I'm twenty eight, and so as 0:05:09.520 --> 0:05:13.159 somebody in my age bracket, I've kind of observed this 0:05:13.279 --> 0:05:16.600 shift where it's not just that online dating has become popular, 0:05:16.760 --> 0:05:19.920 it's it's killed all other forms of how people meet. 0:05:20.440 --> 0:05:24.520 And so it's now you know, sev of relationships depending 0:05:24.520 --> 0:05:27.520 on where you live, UM and in some cities, I mean, 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:31.400 it's it's become completely dominant. And so this is interesting 0:05:31.400 --> 0:05:33.960 and kind of in every part of my life became interesting. 0:05:34.040 --> 0:05:36.320 One in terms of dating, it was the only option 0:05:36.400 --> 0:05:38.480 and trying to figure out, you know, how the hell 0:05:38.480 --> 0:05:41.480 does his work. And at the same time at work, 0:05:41.720 --> 0:05:44.040 we were looking at, you know, how is that impacting 0:05:44.080 --> 0:05:47.160 consumer spending, How is that impacting household formation, How is 0:05:47.160 --> 0:05:50.120 it impacting you know, any number of other things. And 0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:52.440 we've observed this shift, and so as we started to 0:05:52.480 --> 0:05:54.880 dig into it and get some data, we realized, wow, 0:05:54.920 --> 0:05:57.240 this is a much much bigger deal. So we've been 0:05:57.279 --> 0:05:59.479 working on it for about three or four years UM. 0:05:59.520 --> 0:06:00.880 And one of the as we do as we sort 0:06:00.880 --> 0:06:04.640 of partner with people who are entrepreneurs or other things 0:06:04.680 --> 0:06:07.680 like that and uh talk to you on kind of 0:06:07.720 --> 0:06:10.279 the startup scene in private markets, and we were actually 0:06:10.320 --> 0:06:13.200 looking at potentially starting a dating company several years ago. 0:06:13.240 --> 0:06:15.080 So we did a lot of work and we spoke 0:06:15.120 --> 0:06:17.080 to a lot of engineers. We were thinking about poaching 0:06:17.200 --> 0:06:20.120 some for it for a little startup. We decided not 0:06:20.160 --> 0:06:22.280 to do it because we saw it was a kind 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:25.560 of network effect business. But this day that's really kind 0:06:25.560 --> 0:06:28.040 of came together. I spent some time in Asia and 0:06:28.040 --> 0:06:30.520 in the Middle East this summer and kind of seeing 0:06:30.560 --> 0:06:34.599 how these apps have affected culture globally really kind of 0:06:34.600 --> 0:06:36.680 clicked into a place of view of what was going 0:06:36.720 --> 0:06:38.760 on and how this was a much much bigger deal 0:06:39.600 --> 0:06:42.520 than anyone really thought. Dan. First of all, let me 0:06:42.560 --> 0:06:45.560 just say that this paper is really amazing and very 0:06:45.680 --> 0:06:47.760 very funny, and part of the thing that makes it 0:06:47.839 --> 0:06:50.119 so special is it's sort of written in this very 0:06:50.240 --> 0:06:54.400 dry way, and it includes sentences like, you know, men 0:06:54.480 --> 0:06:57.440 struggle more in the dating market when young and overtime 0:06:57.480 --> 0:07:02.039 adjust expectations as the market prices their deficiencies more shrewdly, 0:07:02.680 --> 0:07:06.600 which is just an amazingly entertaining sentence. But I'm curious 0:07:06.720 --> 0:07:10.560 when you started doing research for this paper, like how 0:07:10.640 --> 0:07:15.760 much was anecdotal or based on your own experiences versus 0:07:15.920 --> 0:07:19.880 sort of rigorous academic research. In other words, did you 0:07:19.920 --> 0:07:23.120 go out and sort of do your own field research 0:07:23.200 --> 0:07:27.640 for this one? Let's say, well, we wrote it. We 0:07:27.680 --> 0:07:29.480 wrote it. We thought it was a very funny subject 0:07:29.480 --> 0:07:33.520 matter to write. It's a strange topic to write about 0:07:33.560 --> 0:07:36.400 in any sort of professional context, so we wanted to 0:07:36.440 --> 0:07:38.000 write about it. We were gonna be funny to sort 0:07:38.000 --> 0:07:41.640 of ironically write it very straight, and then um, you know, 0:07:41.680 --> 0:07:44.120 put little jokes in there. Um, But yeah, all of 0:07:44.120 --> 0:07:46.280 the above. I mean it started out. You know, the 0:07:46.320 --> 0:07:48.840 interest in this started out because it's the way people 0:07:49.000 --> 0:07:52.240 in my age age bracket date, and so everyone's sort 0:07:52.280 --> 0:07:56.480 of commiserating about, um, their problems and their successes and 0:07:56.520 --> 0:07:59.320 things like that. I've used all of these apps and 0:07:59.360 --> 0:08:03.240 all of my into have and it's something that's frequently discussed. Um. 0:08:03.400 --> 0:08:05.480 As those of you followed my Twitter will know, I'm 0:08:05.520 --> 0:08:07.520 a bit of a comic, and so a lot of 0:08:07.520 --> 0:08:09.840 people in the comedy community talk about It's just been 0:08:09.840 --> 0:08:13.440 a frequent discussion. And so what I was interested interested 0:08:13.480 --> 0:08:15.600 in was I was hearing a lot of opinions that 0:08:16.200 --> 0:08:19.640 sort of up close, maybe conflicted, and a lot of 0:08:19.640 --> 0:08:23.360 people on average were frustrated with the experience, and I 0:08:23.400 --> 0:08:27.000 was I was fascinated to see everyone simultaneously be frustrated 0:08:27.040 --> 0:08:29.600 and yet they continue to grow and grow and grow, 0:08:30.200 --> 0:08:32.160 even though a lot of people would say, oh, you know, 0:08:32.200 --> 0:08:35.920 I'm just generally disillusioned with using dating apps. And I've 0:08:35.960 --> 0:08:38.319 also seen great successes. I know people have gotten married 0:08:38.320 --> 0:08:41.920 off of Tender, which leads to amazing best man toasts 0:08:41.960 --> 0:08:45.000 and things like that. And I've seen people have terrible experiences. 0:08:45.520 --> 0:08:47.800 But it's one of the things where everyone seemed to 0:08:47.840 --> 0:08:50.040 be talking about it, but I haven't seen any And 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:53.080 it's become a very serious day to day part of 0:08:53.200 --> 0:08:57.000 almost everyone's lives who's under maybe thirty five and some over, 0:08:57.360 --> 0:08:59.440 and yet there hasn't been a lot of serious research 0:08:59.520 --> 0:09:02.720 done it lead in the financial economic community. So I said, okay, 0:09:02.720 --> 0:09:05.080 what literature exists? So we first the first thing we 0:09:05.120 --> 0:09:06.800 do when we're looking at any subjects at work is 0:09:06.840 --> 0:09:09.400 we do a thorough literature review. So we've looked at, 0:09:09.800 --> 0:09:13.400 you know, a number of nonprofit think tanks, university research entities, 0:09:13.400 --> 0:09:16.920 and there's a lot of good sociological research done on 0:09:17.200 --> 0:09:20.000 dating and health information, marriage and all of that. Divorce 0:09:20.840 --> 0:09:22.360 and one of the things that was very interesting to 0:09:22.400 --> 0:09:25.400 me was as we look through these papers, it was 0:09:25.480 --> 0:09:27.959 kind of like, you know, at one point, we could 0:09:28.000 --> 0:09:30.800 find a lot of data showing that online dating had 0:09:30.840 --> 0:09:33.840 now become the dominant factor in dating, and at the 0:09:33.880 --> 0:09:37.120 same time, all these papers still sort of treated it 0:09:37.200 --> 0:09:39.760 like a footnote, it is kind of owned by the 0:09:39.800 --> 0:09:42.679 way some people are dating online, even though eighty or 0:09:42.760 --> 0:09:45.680 ninety percent of the data inputs into those papers were 0:09:45.679 --> 0:09:48.160 being heavily influenced by that factor. So we said, that's 0:09:48.160 --> 0:09:50.960 a really interesting set up for further research. So at 0:09:51.000 --> 0:09:53.200 that point, we spoke to people at pretty much every 0:09:53.280 --> 0:09:57.120 dating company you can imagine, ranging from e Harmony to Okay, 0:09:57.240 --> 0:10:01.880 cubid to match too, Tender or Facebook dating, all of them, 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:06.200 and we also spoke to people that ran actual matchmaking 0:10:06.200 --> 0:10:08.640 business is kind of old school and those tend to 0:10:08.640 --> 0:10:11.760 be higher end. It was a very editive research process 0:10:11.760 --> 0:10:14.440 where we kept having different hypothesies about how this market 0:10:14.520 --> 0:10:17.040 was working, and then as we did more research, we 0:10:17.120 --> 0:10:19.240 kind of kept invalidating them until he came to something 0:10:19.240 --> 0:10:21.440 that made a lot of sense, and and then we 0:10:21.440 --> 0:10:24.280 started going back out and when we had an idea 0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:25.880 what we thought was going on, we started going and 0:10:25.880 --> 0:10:29.520 doing specific polling UH and then looking in specific geographies 0:10:29.559 --> 0:10:31.880 because we had a sort of view that essince you 0:10:31.960 --> 0:10:34.560 what happens is an online dating site goes up, goes up. 0:10:35.200 --> 0:10:38.800 Men immediately join it because dudes are going to do that. 0:10:39.120 --> 0:10:41.960 Women slowly go onto the platform. There's a lack of 0:10:42.000 --> 0:10:46.240 trust at the beginning, and over time what tends to 0:10:46.280 --> 0:10:49.200 happen is the women are actually in a position of control. 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:51.400 Even though that that is what what would is initially 0:10:51.600 --> 0:10:54.400 like scary about online dating, particularly for women, is the 0:10:54.480 --> 0:10:57.240 unknowns and the lack of feeling safe and things like that. 0:10:57.720 --> 0:11:00.199 But particularly looking at markets and the elite East in 0:11:00.280 --> 0:11:04.320 an Asia where women have significantly less agency than they 0:11:04.360 --> 0:11:06.079 do in the United States, we saw happen with this 0:11:06.280 --> 0:11:09.880 very clever dynamic of women all of a sudden realizing, okay, wait, 0:11:10.040 --> 0:11:12.760 I can see unlimited guys I might want to go 0:11:12.800 --> 0:11:15.360 out with. I can say no to as many many 0:11:15.360 --> 0:11:18.640 of them I want without any possible repercussions, and I 0:11:18.679 --> 0:11:21.319 can be very very choosy about who I want to 0:11:21.360 --> 0:11:23.280 go out with. But that also means I don't have 0:11:23.400 --> 0:11:26.160 to go out with whoever my dad wants. Signatures introduced 0:11:26.160 --> 0:11:29.120 me to I don't have to participate in these sort 0:11:29.160 --> 0:11:32.040 of weird pseudo arrange structures that I don't really like. 0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:34.840 And also instead of having to date within my immediate 0:11:34.880 --> 0:11:38.040 social circle, which can have bad ramifications of things don't 0:11:38.040 --> 0:11:40.160 work out, I can date everyone in this city or 0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:43.679 everyone within fifty miles at least level the playing field, 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:47.000 if not put women in a dominant position, particularly in 0:11:47.000 --> 0:11:49.520 those markets. And that's the first time that's ever happened 0:11:50.120 --> 0:11:52.600 in you know, most of the Middle East, in a 0:11:52.600 --> 0:11:55.720 lot of places. And we think that's a really interesting dynamic, 0:11:55.800 --> 0:11:59.120 just looking historically, because dating for women is so much 0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:01.280 riskier than it is for men. And so we did 0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:04.280 a lot of interviews with women using these apps in 0:12:04.280 --> 0:12:08.439 different countries and their experiences. And I think that Americans 0:12:08.480 --> 0:12:10.600 have a very Americans and Europeans probably have a very 0:12:10.640 --> 0:12:14.280 skewed opinion of what dating is like globally, and I 0:12:14.280 --> 0:12:16.520 also think men tend to have a very skewed opinion 0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:19.480 of what dating is like just in general. So it 0:12:19.559 --> 0:12:21.840 was this iterative process of you know, we've used them all, 0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:23.520 We've talked to a lot of people, We've done the 0:12:23.559 --> 0:12:26.800 academic research, we've talked to people at companies, uh, and 0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:29.560 then we've kind of iterated that with question list we had, 0:12:29.640 --> 0:12:32.480 and then we've tried to test our hypothesis against new 0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:35.199 incoming data, and really we got to a point where 0:12:35.200 --> 0:12:38.240 all the new incoming data was sort of confirming our model, 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:40.920 so to speak. And that was where we got very 0:12:40.920 --> 0:12:43.600 comfortable with the overall thesis, and we shared the these 0:12:43.640 --> 0:12:46.240 are the few people, and they everyone was very very 0:12:46.240 --> 0:12:48.520 interested in most of the stuff we write about as 0:12:48.520 --> 0:12:50.959 hedge fund guys nobody cares about, and so we made 0:12:50.960 --> 0:12:52.960 a decision to publish it. We just wanted to put out, 0:12:53.559 --> 0:12:55.280 you know, not a stock pick so much. It's just 0:12:55.400 --> 0:12:57.600 here's our general framework on this market. We think it's 0:12:57.600 --> 0:13:00.160 a very big deal, and we think people aren't really 0:13:00.160 --> 0:13:02.600 appreciating that this is not a fad and this is 0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:04.680 not a niche app. I mean, this is the number 0:13:04.679 --> 0:13:07.080 one grossing app on the Apple Store and Google Play 0:13:07.160 --> 0:13:10.760 for you know, forever, and it needs to be taken seriously. 0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:13.920 And I think it's it's fascinating to me how I 0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:16.560 think it's just psychological bias against something that is still 0:13:16.559 --> 0:13:20.959 categorized as being sexual in nature that is causing people 0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:24.360 not to really think big picture about what's going on here? 0:13:25.440 --> 0:13:29.839 So you mentioned that if you look through existing literature, 0:13:29.920 --> 0:13:35.080 sociological literature on household formation and so forth, that dating apps, 0:13:35.120 --> 0:13:38.040 the rise of dating apps is often treated as a footnote, 0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:41.560 even though much of the data and much of these 0:13:41.600 --> 0:13:45.520 new households are being formed by dating apps, and so 0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:49.360 they're being simultaneously they formed the core of the new information, 0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:53.840 but also they're dismissed. What is the error that that 0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:58.000 leads to when you see people dismissing the significance of 0:13:58.120 --> 0:14:02.199 dating apps or treat partnerships relationships that form via dating 0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:06.320 apps as being exactly equivalent to partnerships that formed via 0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:08.920 any other form, whether it's meeting in a bar or 0:14:09.000 --> 0:14:13.040 through churches or work or whatever. What kind of errors 0:14:13.080 --> 0:14:17.079 does that lead to in terms of analysis? Yeah, So, 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:20.640 so it's really about if you think about any sort 0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:23.480 of analysis of a process like this, there are gating items. 0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:27.880 So before you get to a question of who somebody 0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:30.840 might want to date, the first question is who is 0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:33.120 the what is the available pool off of which they're 0:14:33.160 --> 0:14:37.120 making those decisions. So, particularly in America, UM and in 0:14:37.600 --> 0:14:41.520 other places you America is not a very densely populated country. 0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:45.120 So in America, especially if you're dating within your social circle, 0:14:45.760 --> 0:14:50.200 and you know, particularly before you know, seventies of the sixties, 0:14:50.520 --> 0:14:53.760 people generally less mobile. The actual dating pool people are 0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:56.880 selecting from is quite small, um, so it might be 0:14:56.920 --> 0:14:59.120 a few hundred people, and then you filter for people 0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:01.960 who are available, people in the appropriate age range, people 0:15:02.000 --> 0:15:05.320 who are from good families, things like that, and there's 0:15:05.360 --> 0:15:07.600 a lot of other variables that get upweighted around the 0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:11.760 social standing within that given sort of click or tribe, 0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:13.600 and so that's there's a lot of variables to get 0:15:13.640 --> 0:15:15.800 thrown out. So the first effect that online dating happ 0:15:16.000 --> 0:15:19.920 has is that your dating pool size effectively becomes unlimited. 0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:23.200 So it's going from realistically several hundred people. I mean, 0:15:23.280 --> 0:15:25.080 let's say it's the people at work, it's the people 0:15:25.120 --> 0:15:28.040 at the bar after after work, it's your church, and 0:15:28.080 --> 0:15:30.280 it's a couple of social activities you're not going to 0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:34.160 interact with in any material way more than several dozen people. 0:15:34.200 --> 0:15:36.520 It's not a few hundred people. People go through that 0:15:36.560 --> 0:15:39.040 many people on a dating app in like an hour. 0:15:39.600 --> 0:15:42.560 The average time somebody spends looking at another profile and 0:15:42.640 --> 0:15:45.720 a dating app is two to three seconds. So the 0:15:45.760 --> 0:15:49.080 initial pool being drawn upon goes up massively, and so 0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:51.680 then the question is if somebody has millions of people 0:15:51.720 --> 0:15:54.320 to choose from instead of a hundred, do the variables 0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:58.760 they're selecting people on change? And most of the historical 0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:01.520 um pay as we've seen, really try to take a 0:16:01.600 --> 0:16:04.640 really really rational approach to dating. And I don't know 0:16:04.680 --> 0:16:06.640 if either of you know anyone who's ever dated, but 0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:10.240 it's not the most rational process. I've met people who 0:16:10.280 --> 0:16:12.680 have dated. And so we've seen a lot of things 0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:15.960 where these papers are sort of arguing that men and 0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:19.400 women's create like a spreadsheet in their brain of Okay, 0:16:19.440 --> 0:16:21.640 this person went to this college, this person has this 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:25.000 income power, they sorted and then they select based on that. 0:16:44.160 --> 0:16:47.680 Most people have had very small actual available dating pools, 0:16:47.720 --> 0:16:50.560 particularly in smaller towns. Of your work, you have your 0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:54.640 afterwork activities, church, a few other things. Particularly historically, that 0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:57.160 pool gets very small. You're talking a few hundred people 0:16:57.240 --> 0:17:00.480 at most when you would justust for appropriate aid range 0:17:01.040 --> 0:17:04.040 and uh, you know, correct gender for your preferences and 0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:06.639 things like that. Online dating flip sets and now the 0:17:06.640 --> 0:17:09.120 pool side is unlimited. In addition to that, a lot 0:17:09.119 --> 0:17:11.480 of the historical studies and still a lot of studies 0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:15.200 really focused on academic attainment and things like that, as 0:17:15.200 --> 0:17:17.720 if people are using a ranking algorithm in their head 0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:20.000 and that just tends to not be true. It can 0:17:20.160 --> 0:17:23.280 give me true in certain populations in cities, which is 0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:26.080 tends to be the people doing the academic studies, but 0:17:26.119 --> 0:17:30.159 it doesn't really bear out over broad populations, with the 0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:33.560 exception of sort of minimum gating items. So you know, 0:17:33.560 --> 0:17:35.879 if you don't have a high school degree, or if 0:17:35.920 --> 0:17:38.600 you're in a college educated area you don't have a 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:41.440 college degree, it does get harder. But beyond that you're 0:17:41.440 --> 0:17:43.520 looking at now, so basically going from a few hundred 0:17:43.560 --> 0:17:46.760 people being your choice set to millions. And then when 0:17:46.760 --> 0:17:49.240 people are looking at profiles, they're spending between two and 0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:52.639 three seconds deciding yes or no, And so that means 0:17:52.680 --> 0:17:55.600 that that the decision about swiping it left or right, 0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:58.320 are saying yes or no is a lot more about 0:17:58.960 --> 0:18:01.199 kind of the visual element of the profile, and so 0:18:01.320 --> 0:18:03.800 you can get there's different elements in there which might 0:18:03.840 --> 0:18:07.040 correlate with college education, but it really comes down to 0:18:07.040 --> 0:18:09.760 how can you present yourself with photographs in some text 0:18:10.040 --> 0:18:14.040 Each platform, individual platform uses a slightly different user interface 0:18:14.560 --> 0:18:18.600 so that people can either find different information about potential 0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:22.760 matches they value or showcase and or showcase information they 0:18:22.760 --> 0:18:25.199 think is valuable. So it's leading to kind of an 0:18:25.200 --> 0:18:31.040 instagrammification of dating, people making very quick snap judgments and 0:18:31.040 --> 0:18:33.600 then people chat. But the other thing is that the 0:18:34.040 --> 0:18:36.680 match ratios for men and women are radically different. Women 0:18:36.720 --> 0:18:39.040 are getting a minimum of five times and in many 0:18:39.080 --> 0:18:43.160 markets twenty five times the inbound like that a male 0:18:43.160 --> 0:18:46.080 account is getting, And so that introduces a lot of 0:18:46.119 --> 0:18:50.240 other gamifying elements around Look, you could be the greatest 0:18:50.280 --> 0:18:53.159 person ever, but if you if you come into some 0:18:53.240 --> 0:18:56.840 of these methods Q and your forty back, you're probably 0:18:56.840 --> 0:18:59.800 not going to get seen. So then it introduces elements 0:18:59.800 --> 0:19:02.480 of a random chance around what time of day like 0:19:02.720 --> 0:19:04.920 or a message is sent, and how do you really 0:19:04.960 --> 0:19:08.919 draw attention? So also rewards behaviors that draw attention so 0:19:09.000 --> 0:19:11.960 you can stand out because there's just so much volume, 0:19:12.160 --> 0:19:14.359 and it's very similar to a lot of things in 0:19:14.400 --> 0:19:16.600 markets right now. And you know a lot of people 0:19:16.640 --> 0:19:18.240 right now are looking at you know, a few high 0:19:18.240 --> 0:19:21.800 profile CEOs. They're doing some very flashy things and wos 0:19:21.840 --> 0:19:23.840 what people saying? They're getting all of the attention and 0:19:23.880 --> 0:19:26.280 that's really the same thing that's happening right now in 0:19:26.440 --> 0:19:28.800 dating is if you are not able to draw attention 0:19:28.840 --> 0:19:31.119 to yourself to stand out because the pool is so 0:19:31.200 --> 0:19:34.200 much larger, you have a big problem. So that's leading 0:19:34.240 --> 0:19:37.480 to people going on, people having to change their strategies 0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:39.399 how to get dates. And then when you go on 0:19:39.440 --> 0:19:42.679 the date, you have to stand out because everyone knows 0:19:42.680 --> 0:19:45.560 that in ten seconds you can go on your phone 0:19:45.920 --> 0:19:47.679 and you can have another date, or you may know 0:19:47.760 --> 0:19:50.639 that you have five, ten, twenty alternatives waiting in the 0:19:50.640 --> 0:19:53.159 wings on your phone. So if there's a red flag 0:19:53.240 --> 0:19:55.240 on date one, there probably is not a date two. 0:19:55.320 --> 0:19:58.720 People are not hanging around on Overall, in the whole population, 0:19:58.720 --> 0:20:02.280 people are not hanging around in bad relationships as long. Wait, Dan, 0:20:02.359 --> 0:20:06.600 can I ask a real quick question. But whether it's 0:20:06.840 --> 0:20:11.840 on the profile itself, like on one's profile, or whether 0:20:11.880 --> 0:20:14.639 it's showing up, is it smart strategy to be wearing 0:20:14.640 --> 0:20:17.919 cargo shorts. I am an advocate of a cargo shorts 0:20:17.960 --> 0:20:21.920 all the time, but my cargo short oriented dating app 0:20:22.000 --> 0:20:24.480 is not doing that well. And I just think there's 0:20:24.520 --> 0:20:28.239 a conspiracy against me at Apple from the top, and uh, 0:20:28.440 --> 0:20:31.200 Tim Apple himself does not want this to happen, but 0:20:31.400 --> 0:20:33.800 I think it's just an inevitability. Everyone's gonna wear nothing 0:20:33.800 --> 0:20:35.399 but cargo shorts in the kind of huge I just 0:20:35.400 --> 0:20:38.679 wanted to clear that up. Yeah, are you a B testing? 0:20:38.960 --> 0:20:42.000 Like is there one profile where you're wearing cargo shorts 0:20:42.000 --> 0:20:44.240 and another one where you aren't? You know you joke, 0:20:44.440 --> 0:20:47.440 But we did several years ago do some a B 0:20:47.600 --> 0:20:50.800 testing with dummy accounts, and I think one of them 0:20:50.840 --> 0:20:53.400 did have cargo shorts on. We made an account called 0:20:53.480 --> 0:20:58.760 Chad that was the worst person ever, and it did 0:20:59.040 --> 0:21:01.800 way better than I thought it would. It was really offensive. 0:21:01.920 --> 0:21:04.919 I think it actually outperformed my actual account, which is 0:21:05.000 --> 0:21:08.760 just crushing um. But it comes back to like attention, 0:21:08.840 --> 0:21:10.240 like if you make if you if you have like 0:21:10.240 --> 0:21:14.399 a shirtless dude in cargo shorts, that the entire profile 0:21:14.440 --> 0:21:17.119 is ridiculous, you're gonna get some percentage of people saying 0:21:17.200 --> 0:21:19.920 yes because they say, oh that's funny. They're actually such 0:21:19.920 --> 0:21:21.600 a thing. It's like a hate like some people will 0:21:21.640 --> 0:21:23.880 match with somebody just to say mean things to them 0:21:23.880 --> 0:21:25.679 in the d M. You know, you get a lot 0:21:25.720 --> 0:21:27.960 of that, but yeah, you can. We did a bit 0:21:28.400 --> 0:21:31.960 with cargo shorts. So before we get onto more of 0:21:32.000 --> 0:21:35.160 the economic implications, I just wanted to ask you're you're 0:21:35.160 --> 0:21:40.320 talking about online dating basically making the whole dating market 0:21:40.520 --> 0:21:44.720 more efficient, so you have greater access to a bigger 0:21:44.800 --> 0:21:50.280 pool of potential mates, which is a terrible word, but like, 0:21:50.440 --> 0:21:54.320 I just wonder how much of that efficiency is actually 0:21:54.560 --> 0:22:00.919 offset by having an enormous amount of or a number 0:22:00.920 --> 0:22:04.399 of people to actually choose from and and having to 0:22:04.480 --> 0:22:07.399 go on dates with with various people. In other words, like, 0:22:07.480 --> 0:22:11.160 how much of the efficiency from online dating is actually 0:22:11.320 --> 0:22:16.679 offset by the stress and burnout of doing this constantly? 0:22:17.119 --> 0:22:20.080 Excellent questions. So I think it's important to understand that 0:22:20.280 --> 0:22:23.160 stress and burnout is a huge factor in dating. That's 0:22:23.200 --> 0:22:25.840 the least romantic thing to say, ever, But at some 0:22:25.960 --> 0:22:28.960 point you're making a judgment of I really like this person, 0:22:30.040 --> 0:22:32.359 you know, we're in loved at it up, but you know, 0:22:32.560 --> 0:22:35.720 I think there might be somebody else that could convince 0:22:35.800 --> 0:22:38.399 you to break up with them and go with somebody 0:22:38.400 --> 0:22:42.199 else in a lot of circumstances, and historically, when you know, 0:22:42.240 --> 0:22:44.600 if you live in a small town like I'm from Richard, Virginia, 0:22:45.200 --> 0:22:48.600 if you know three people and there's really like twenty 0:22:48.720 --> 0:22:53.800 that you think are potential long term life partners. At 0:22:53.800 --> 0:22:55.440 a certain point, you're gonna say, do I really want 0:22:55.440 --> 0:22:58.199 to risk this good thing for you know, five or 0:22:58.240 --> 0:23:01.480 six other potential options? When the clock is starting to 0:23:01.560 --> 0:23:05.520 run down, it starts to be an illogical, interrrational decision 0:23:06.040 --> 0:23:08.800 the real differences, and so that still exists as you 0:23:08.840 --> 0:23:10.560 get older, you get to a certain point, like at 0:23:10.600 --> 0:23:13.000 some point you're gonna say, I'm really tired of playing 0:23:13.000 --> 0:23:15.879 this game. I'd really like to you know not. And 0:23:15.920 --> 0:23:18.560 that's not true for everybody. Some people enjoy dating. I 0:23:18.600 --> 0:23:21.560 think that's insane. I think dating is stressful, especially early dating. 0:23:22.000 --> 0:23:25.280 But um, there are people who like that. But what's 0:23:25.280 --> 0:23:28.639 important understand is that it's more about during like specifically 0:23:28.720 --> 0:23:32.840 during your twenties and early thirties. This is providing at 0:23:32.880 --> 0:23:34.800 any point in time, you have an escape pass you 0:23:34.800 --> 0:23:37.720 can pull, you can always go, and you have hundreds, 0:23:37.720 --> 0:23:40.680 if not thousands, of potential options. And so you're gonna 0:23:40.800 --> 0:23:42.920 you're gonna try on this is not bad. You're gonna 0:23:42.960 --> 0:23:45.200 try on more pants. You're gonna you're gonna have more 0:23:45.240 --> 0:23:47.920 options to try out. You're gonna go on more first 0:23:48.000 --> 0:23:50.640 dates that are gonna end badly. And I think what's 0:23:50.640 --> 0:23:52.800 happening is that's allowing people to sort of build a 0:23:52.880 --> 0:23:56.600 database of what their deal breakers are, which you know, 0:23:56.600 --> 0:23:58.840 I'm gonna include all thirty Rock references in that because 0:23:58.840 --> 0:24:01.239 I love that show. You you're gonna figure out that 0:24:01.280 --> 0:24:03.320 doesn't work for me, that doesn't work for me. This 0:24:03.400 --> 0:24:05.960 is a problem. And now of those ethics are going 0:24:06.040 --> 0:24:08.000 to be good. But you're not going to stick around 0:24:08.040 --> 0:24:10.160 in a relationship if there's a clear red flag off 0:24:10.160 --> 0:24:12.320 the bat, because you can be on another day tomorrow, 0:24:12.680 --> 0:24:14.520 So you're not gonna go out with, you know, a 0:24:14.520 --> 0:24:17.800 sketchy person two or three or four times again. Overall, obviously, 0:24:17.840 --> 0:24:20.720 individual people will make terrible decisions. It's what America is 0:24:20.720 --> 0:24:24.720 all about. But it's the massive increase in alternatives and 0:24:24.760 --> 0:24:27.720 so as you go through more and more dates, and 0:24:27.720 --> 0:24:29.479 one of the things that's been studied quite a bit. 0:24:29.480 --> 0:24:32.040 I'm gonna post some more papers about this is that 0:24:32.440 --> 0:24:36.720 between about the nineteen nineteen fifties and now, the median 0:24:36.840 --> 0:24:41.000 person when they get married is having seven to twelve 0:24:41.080 --> 0:24:44.160 times as much dating experiences as their parents. I think 0:24:44.160 --> 0:24:47.280 that numbers low balls. I think people still, uh I 0:24:47.359 --> 0:24:51.000 don't want to sound promiscuous. So people are when they 0:24:51.000 --> 0:24:54.239 are making a decision to get married, they're coming in 0:24:54.240 --> 0:24:57.520 with way more information, They've seen a lot more. They're 0:24:57.560 --> 0:24:59.920 also more aware of how stressful it is to date, 0:25:00.040 --> 0:25:01.879 so there isn't that factor of, oh, I wonder what 0:25:01.920 --> 0:25:03.480 else is out there. You're like, no, I know what 0:25:03.560 --> 0:25:06.560 else is out there. I'm really good, Like this is solid. 0:25:07.040 --> 0:25:09.679 So you're just making a more informed purchasing decision, if 0:25:09.680 --> 0:25:12.600 you want to sound like an economist about it. And 0:25:12.640 --> 0:25:15.639 that's really really changing things. And as a result, I 0:25:15.680 --> 0:25:18.520 think this is driving a reduction and divorce. The other 0:25:18.560 --> 0:25:23.120 issue is that absolute marriage rates, particularly marriage rates below 0:25:23.200 --> 0:25:25.840 twenty five, are going down a lot, and in my 0:25:25.920 --> 0:25:29.520 personal opinions might offend some people. I think getting divorced 0:25:29.560 --> 0:25:32.200 before your brain is fully formed around twenty five years 0:25:32.200 --> 0:25:34.880 old is kind of crazy because you have very little 0:25:34.880 --> 0:25:38.320 life experience. You said getting divorced before, did you mean 0:25:38.320 --> 0:25:42.280 getting married before? I mean both, but yeah, I mean yeah, 0:25:42.280 --> 0:25:47.200 getting married before is statistically a worse idea because you're 0:25:47.240 --> 0:25:48.560 not at a point where you're not a point of 0:25:48.600 --> 0:25:51.560 stability personally. You don't have a lot of life experience. 0:25:51.640 --> 0:25:53.919 You haven't all the dating experience. You're making a huge 0:25:53.920 --> 0:25:57.280 decision with very little information going in. You're gonna generally 0:25:57.640 --> 0:26:01.440 be unable to withstand kind of shocks better than you know. 0:26:01.480 --> 0:26:03.119 We could wield miss team to Leven here and he 0:26:03.160 --> 0:26:04.919 could explain it, but you're not gonna be able to 0:26:04.920 --> 0:26:07.480 withstand shocks very well. One of the things that's happening 0:26:07.480 --> 0:26:09.840 as a result of that is that people are are 0:26:09.920 --> 0:26:12.800 are dating a little bit longer. People are also moving 0:26:12.800 --> 0:26:16.479 in together more, and the probability that if you live together, 0:26:16.520 --> 0:26:19.200 if you cohabitate, you do get married is dropping because 0:26:19.240 --> 0:26:21.479 people are moving in for six months, twelve months, two 0:26:21.560 --> 0:26:24.160 years and just saying, okay, can we actually live together. 0:26:24.200 --> 0:26:26.359 We might really love each other, but are we going 0:26:26.400 --> 0:26:28.199 to kill each other if we live together? Which is 0:26:28.200 --> 0:26:31.040 an important question to ask, uh if you think of 0:26:31.160 --> 0:26:34.359 getting married, So you're seeing you know, you're just seeing 0:26:34.400 --> 0:26:37.400 a lot more trials, and so you could you could 0:26:37.480 --> 0:26:39.280 comp that to the market and say you're seeing a 0:26:39.280 --> 0:26:42.240 lot more trading volume, which tends to lead to more 0:26:42.240 --> 0:26:44.840 efficient pricing. And so what we think is happening is 0:26:44.840 --> 0:26:47.080 people are basically going on more bad dates, figuring out 0:26:47.160 --> 0:26:49.439 more of what doesn't work for them. They're living with 0:26:49.440 --> 0:26:51.000 people before they get married, and then when they do 0:26:51.080 --> 0:26:53.800 get married, and all of that up until the marriage 0:26:53.840 --> 0:26:56.359 decision is is can be very stressful and hard, and 0:26:56.680 --> 0:26:59.040 that I think that's why all the dissatisfaction is there. 0:26:59.560 --> 0:27:02.360 But when do actually finally find somebody, they have way 0:27:02.359 --> 0:27:05.560 more information. They're making a much more informed decision overall, 0:27:06.320 --> 0:27:10.720 and you're seeing better marriage outcomes where people are actually 0:27:10.840 --> 0:27:12.879 you know, they know what they're getting into and they 0:27:12.920 --> 0:27:15.920 actually can make it. They're making an educated decision about 0:27:15.960 --> 0:27:17.520 whether or not they think this is gonna work. I 0:27:17.520 --> 0:27:20.640 think it's important to note that on a statistical basis, 0:27:20.640 --> 0:27:23.120 marriage is a lot more about downside risk and upside. 0:27:23.119 --> 0:27:24.679 I mean, you you can't really predict if you're going 0:27:24.720 --> 0:27:27.359 to be the most happy you've ever been, but you 0:27:27.400 --> 0:27:30.000 can probably predict if, like this person is going to 0:27:30.119 --> 0:27:31.840 kill you with an AX. So you need to really 0:27:31.960 --> 0:27:34.400 you want to avoid the ax murder situation as much 0:27:34.440 --> 0:27:36.800 as possible, more than you want to have like the 0:27:36.880 --> 0:27:40.600 notebook happen. Right. That's yeah, it's really like kind of 0:27:40.880 --> 0:27:44.919 depressing and unromantic though that like, okay, yes, maybe there 0:27:44.920 --> 0:27:50.520 are fewer divorces now. But basically that's just about eliminating 0:27:50.560 --> 0:27:53.040 the left side of the tail. Basically, it's not that 0:27:53.119 --> 0:27:55.600 marriages are per se better, it's just that there are 0:27:55.600 --> 0:27:58.280 fewer of the really bad sounds like yeah, but I 0:27:58.280 --> 0:28:00.359 mean I think you know, I'm from a only that 0:28:00.400 --> 0:28:03.120 had I'm from a divorced family, and I can tell 0:28:03.119 --> 0:28:06.600 you that you know, the left tail is not fun. 0:28:07.400 --> 0:28:11.879 And people getting into these decisions of like where like 0:28:12.440 --> 0:28:15.199 you see this a lot investing people optimize, people in 0:28:15.200 --> 0:28:18.880 their head optimize to this dream scenario that it's really 0:28:18.920 --> 0:28:20.960 really dangerous. It's kind of a siren song. You're thinking 0:28:21.000 --> 0:28:24.040 about perfection. You're not thinking about something that is consistently 0:28:24.080 --> 0:28:28.119 good and consistently positive. And I think overall it's better 0:28:28.160 --> 0:28:30.639 for people, and people are happier if they have something 0:28:30.640 --> 0:28:35.640 that is consistently good. Then if they make these moonshot bets. Now, 0:28:35.680 --> 0:28:37.560 I will say that the moon shot bet thing is 0:28:37.640 --> 0:28:41.000 huge in this because because the dating pools are so large, 0:28:41.360 --> 0:28:44.840 people are a lot pickier, particularly women when they're under 0:28:44.880 --> 0:28:48.640 call at twenty five. Everyone is trying no matter you know, 0:28:49.000 --> 0:28:51.800 who you are, what you look like, whatever, everyone is 0:28:51.840 --> 0:28:54.880 trying to punch above their weight because statistically, it will 0:28:54.920 --> 0:28:59.000 probably happen given you have unlimited swipes, right, so you 0:28:59.080 --> 0:29:01.600 have unlimited at at that's never been the case before, 0:29:02.120 --> 0:29:04.320 and so everyone is trying to punch above their weight, 0:29:04.480 --> 0:29:07.320 and that's actually causing there to be more competition in 0:29:07.360 --> 0:29:10.360 the market. But people tend to find that that doesn't 0:29:10.360 --> 0:29:12.959 actually work so well, that doesn't you know, you're probably 0:29:12.960 --> 0:29:14.840 going to get to go on a few dates with 0:29:14.920 --> 0:29:17.719 people that are way out of your league, and you know, 0:29:17.920 --> 0:29:21.520 if you make that happen, great for you. But over time, 0:29:21.560 --> 0:29:25.480 people sort of, you know, get their expectations, your expectations 0:29:25.520 --> 0:29:28.000 get priced to a reasonable level in the market over time, 0:29:28.400 --> 0:29:30.560 and all this sounds very, very unromantic. I'm just kind 0:29:30.560 --> 0:29:32.880 of describing what's happening dispatched. I think that's part of 0:29:32.880 --> 0:29:35.200 the issue also, is it's very hard for people to 0:29:35.240 --> 0:29:39.480 describe this market is passionately because it says something about you. 0:29:39.680 --> 0:29:42.920 I don't want to sound like a psychopath describing people 0:29:43.360 --> 0:29:46.960 falling in love as a pricing function, but the data 0:29:47.040 --> 0:29:48.840 looks the hell of a lot like a pricing function, 0:29:49.400 --> 0:29:51.680 and using a pricing function is the only way we've 0:29:51.680 --> 0:29:54.280 been able to actually solve this. So I kind of 0:29:54.280 --> 0:29:56.680 got to, you know, put on my psychopath hat and 0:29:56.680 --> 0:29:58.760 and talk like one for a minute to understand what's 0:29:58.800 --> 0:30:01.320 going on. I'm but then there are strategies, you know, 0:30:01.360 --> 0:30:04.120 you can use to get outcomes that you're happy with. Here. 0:30:04.160 --> 0:30:06.120 I mean, it's not this is not a circumstance where 0:30:06.120 --> 0:30:08.480 everybody's doomed. It's just people are going to go through 0:30:08.480 --> 0:30:10.800 a period of struggle and then the bright side is 0:30:10.840 --> 0:30:13.360 people are finding what they're looking for. And then the 0:30:13.520 --> 0:30:15.640 great thing about online dating also is that there are 0:30:15.680 --> 0:30:18.680 all the big properties, but there's increasingly more and more 0:30:18.800 --> 0:30:22.680 deep niche categories where people can find very specific traits 0:30:22.720 --> 0:30:24.720 if they want a certain type of partnership. So it 0:30:24.800 --> 0:30:28.000 might be considered abnormal or or or interest oriented, or 0:30:28.040 --> 0:30:31.840 ethnicity oriented or something like that. People can select into that, 0:30:31.960 --> 0:30:33.680 you know. So for example, you know, we have a 0:30:33.680 --> 0:30:37.200 friend of the firm is Orthodox Jewish family, and he 0:30:37.240 --> 0:30:39.280 was talking about how, you know, when he was a kid, 0:30:39.280 --> 0:30:42.320 it was all family introductions and now all the kids 0:30:42.320 --> 0:30:44.320 are on you know, Jase Wipe and things like that, 0:30:44.400 --> 0:30:46.680 and it's it's like, it's weird because I don't understand 0:30:46.720 --> 0:30:49.080 it at all. But there's still dating within the pool 0:30:49.160 --> 0:30:51.280 that i'd like them to date with so great. So 0:30:51.480 --> 0:30:53.840 you know, people are getting the outcomes that they want 0:30:54.160 --> 0:30:56.800 and they are limiting the left tail. So it's kind 0:30:56.800 --> 0:30:59.160 of like it reminds me a lot of when people 0:30:59.440 --> 0:31:02.680 get into an investing and they start thinking, Okay, I'm 0:31:02.720 --> 0:31:04.840 going to pick some genius stock. I'm gonna be the 0:31:04.840 --> 0:31:07.080 guy who buys Amazon at a dollar a share, and 0:31:07.080 --> 0:31:10.920 I'm gonna make all this money, and they realize over time, like, 0:31:11.040 --> 0:31:15.520 you know, if I can do a solid like on 0:31:15.600 --> 0:31:19.040 my retirement portfolio over thirty or forty years, like that's great, 0:31:19.160 --> 0:31:22.840 But that's not a fun process of adjusting your expectations, 0:31:22.960 --> 0:31:25.920 you know. And I think it's a lot like that. Well, 0:31:26.160 --> 0:31:30.520 since you're talking about dating um from a slightly psychopathic, 0:31:31.200 --> 0:31:37.440 numbers based slash investing strategy perspective, I'm wondering, given that 0:31:37.520 --> 0:31:40.880 online dating is sort of the dominant form of dating now, 0:31:41.080 --> 0:31:45.800 is is real life dating where the alpha is Like, 0:31:46.000 --> 0:31:49.000 is that where you could maybe find some interesting matches 0:31:49.080 --> 0:31:53.480 and maybe outperform the broader market? If that makes sense? 0:31:54.000 --> 0:31:56.600 I think so. If I'm gonna just put my hypocrite 0:31:56.640 --> 0:31:58.920 hat on here for a second, but my girlfriend I 0:31:58.960 --> 0:32:03.080 actually met offline, but it's happening less And I think 0:32:03.120 --> 0:32:04.960 one of the things is, you know, every one of 0:32:05.000 --> 0:32:07.320 the common comments about millennials, you go to a barner, 0:32:07.360 --> 0:32:10.520 everybody's on their phone, So there are less people who 0:32:10.560 --> 0:32:14.800 actually have the conversational skill to you know, strike up 0:32:14.840 --> 0:32:17.120 conversation form of connection. The other thing is, as I said, 0:32:17.160 --> 0:32:19.200 when you're on the apps, people are spending two to 0:32:19.320 --> 0:32:23.560 three seconds at most on average on each profile. So 0:32:23.600 --> 0:32:26.080 if you can actually start a conversation and then you 0:32:26.120 --> 0:32:28.640 and that person are going to share you know, let's 0:32:28.640 --> 0:32:31.640 take two or three or four minutes of mutual attention, 0:32:31.920 --> 0:32:35.120 that's giving you, you know, hundreds of times the exposure 0:32:35.160 --> 0:32:37.800 that you're getting otherwise. So I definitely think that if 0:32:37.840 --> 0:32:41.080 there our way, if you can do that without being creepy, 0:32:41.360 --> 0:32:43.640 there's definitely a lot of you know, alpha there. I 0:32:43.680 --> 0:32:46.600 think that things like a friend of friend introductions and 0:32:46.640 --> 0:32:53.000 family introductions are likely structurally dead because the risk there's 0:32:53.000 --> 0:32:55.560 such a big risk factor there that now is not necessary. 0:32:55.960 --> 0:32:57.760 You know, it's always been the case that well you 0:32:57.840 --> 0:33:00.960 introduce somebody within your friend circle, be does it may 0:33:01.040 --> 0:33:03.560 strengthen you know, loyalty within the tribe over time, but 0:33:03.600 --> 0:33:06.400 if it doesn't work, then it's a really bad thing 0:33:06.640 --> 0:33:08.280 and it's gonna be awkward as hell, and it's gonna 0:33:08.320 --> 0:33:10.760 make Christmas parties terrible. And I think everybody has been 0:33:10.760 --> 0:33:13.760 through that experience. And so because there's unlimited dating alternative, 0:33:13.800 --> 0:33:15.400 if nobody's gonna do that anymore. But I do think 0:33:15.400 --> 0:33:18.120 there's there are a lot of opportunities to you know, 0:33:18.240 --> 0:33:20.480 do better than you might on the apps by being 0:33:20.520 --> 0:33:23.360 proactive in real life. And the other thing that you know, 0:33:23.400 --> 0:33:25.200 we point out is we we joked in the paper 0:33:25.200 --> 0:33:27.080 about don't ask us about dating advice, and I really 0:33:27.080 --> 0:33:28.920 don't want a bunch of people ask me about dating advice, 0:33:28.960 --> 0:33:32.000 but I do have some dating advice. Finally, this is good. 0:33:32.120 --> 0:33:34.800 This is probably gonna be one of the first actionable 0:33:34.880 --> 0:33:37.440 things on odd logever because you know, you we don't 0:33:37.480 --> 0:33:40.920 normally are in the business of investing or trading advice 0:33:41.000 --> 0:33:43.520 or anything, but finally someone is going to offer something 0:33:44.000 --> 0:33:47.760 substance these apps spark. In many cases, the engineers at 0:33:47.800 --> 0:33:50.800 the dating app companies are actually programmers who are coming 0:33:50.880 --> 0:33:55.040 from slot machine programming jobs like gaming relays a Less 0:33:55.120 --> 0:33:59.120 Vegas like that, so they are incredibly good at manipulating 0:33:59.120 --> 0:34:02.120 these quick dopen feedback loops basically like you know, the 0:34:02.160 --> 0:34:06.200 Stanford Marshmallow test thing, and everyone fails it, and everyone 0:34:06.240 --> 0:34:08.319 fails it, particularly if it has anything to do with sex. 0:34:08.360 --> 0:34:11.560 It just overrides everything else and you're you're competing against 0:34:11.600 --> 0:34:13.600 your lizard brain. You're gonna lose. So it's very hard 0:34:13.640 --> 0:34:15.920 to draw attention stand out. One of the ways that 0:34:15.960 --> 0:34:17.840 you can, it seems like you can get around that 0:34:17.920 --> 0:34:20.279 is if you can target or if you're if you're 0:34:20.280 --> 0:34:24.120 targeting audiences that have a demonstrated ability to resist that. 0:34:24.680 --> 0:34:26.359 And I think a good proxy for that is people 0:34:26.360 --> 0:34:28.560 who are very passionate about something or some sort of 0:34:28.600 --> 0:34:31.759 intense hobby or something like that where they're very very 0:34:31.760 --> 0:34:35.120 focused on you know, long term skill development things like that, 0:34:35.239 --> 0:34:38.319 so you know, athletes, artists, things like that, people who 0:34:38.360 --> 0:34:41.760 are very very focused on kind of not immediate payoff 0:34:41.800 --> 0:34:43.719 work and things like that. So I think a lot 0:34:43.760 --> 0:34:48.279 of people are having very positive experiences meeting people. You know, 0:34:48.680 --> 0:34:49.799 a lot of people when they go to a new 0:34:49.800 --> 0:34:51.239 city are talking to me. They're like, well, how do 0:34:51.239 --> 0:34:52.480 I meet people in a new city. I'm like, well, 0:34:52.480 --> 0:34:54.880 you can do their dating apps. That's gonna work overall, 0:34:55.520 --> 0:34:58.160 but you know, join a club, go do you know, 0:34:58.719 --> 0:35:00.160 not to be too share as I go to a 0:35:00.280 --> 0:35:03.320 cross fit class, go to yoga, go to an art class, 0:35:03.360 --> 0:35:06.239 go like go do an activity, join some sort of 0:35:06.320 --> 0:35:09.799 club where it's centered around everybody really enjoying that thing 0:35:09.800 --> 0:35:12.239 and being very passionate about that. And that could be 0:35:12.320 --> 0:35:14.319 a good place where again you can meet people in 0:35:14.360 --> 0:35:17.360 real life who may share similar character traits that you 0:35:17.520 --> 0:35:20.319 value and you can do well that way. But you've 0:35:20.320 --> 0:35:21.759 really got to put yourself out there. And I think 0:35:21.760 --> 0:35:24.440 the other thing is for people who are especially young professionals, 0:35:24.440 --> 0:35:25.920 who are trying to you know, make it, and they're 0:35:25.960 --> 0:35:28.160 grinding and they've got all these things going on. You know, 0:35:28.320 --> 0:35:30.480 it is a lot of work. Very easy to hop 0:35:30.520 --> 0:35:32.640 on your phone and just go swipe slight slip, swipe, 0:35:32.920 --> 0:35:35.160 and then you've got a date versus you know, spending 0:35:35.200 --> 0:35:39.080 several hours finding an activity, going to activity, you know, 0:35:39.120 --> 0:35:41.760 going out and doing something and and so that's that's 0:35:41.800 --> 0:35:43.440 a strategy that can work. It just takes a lot 0:35:43.440 --> 0:35:45.920 of work. It's similar to doing kind of fundamental investing. 0:35:45.920 --> 0:35:48.080 It You're gonna have to do an enormous amount of work. 0:35:48.480 --> 0:35:50.160 And you're gonna feel really stupid about it a lot 0:35:50.160 --> 0:35:52.560 of the time. You know, this is not an efficient 0:35:52.560 --> 0:35:55.080 market in the sense that you can't achieve your desired 0:35:55.120 --> 0:35:58.600 outcomes and you can't you know, find somebody. Everybody finds 0:35:58.600 --> 0:36:01.799 somebody eventually. But I do think that focusing on people 0:36:01.840 --> 0:36:05.920 who have kind of established delay gratification skills is a really, 0:36:06.000 --> 0:36:08.920 really good strategy. And then I also think that you know, 0:36:09.000 --> 0:36:11.399 time of day of when you're when you're using these 0:36:11.440 --> 0:36:14.440 apps is very important given the queuing dynamics. And I 0:36:14.480 --> 0:36:16.560 also I also think people should try out multiple apps 0:36:16.560 --> 0:36:18.000 and figure out which ones they like, so you know, 0:36:18.040 --> 0:36:21.400 for example, okay Cube, it provides a lot more information 0:36:21.440 --> 0:36:24.480 about users. You're getting several pages of text about somebody 0:36:24.480 --> 0:36:27.040 and you can respond, you can write something in any 0:36:27.080 --> 0:36:29.880 case you actually care, and it's a lot slower of 0:36:29.920 --> 0:36:33.800 a dynamic. Tender is a very quick lottery type dynamic 0:36:33.920 --> 0:36:36.520 that really and like I think, unless you're like an 0:36:36.520 --> 0:36:39.000 eight or above, I don't know why you're on tender personally, 0:36:39.160 --> 0:36:42.240 You're just you have no shot TINGE has a different dynamic, 0:36:42.320 --> 0:36:46.040 J swipe, different dynamic, you know, E harmony, things like that, 0:36:46.320 --> 0:36:49.040 and some of these are really optimized for long term relationships, 0:36:49.040 --> 0:36:50.800 and some of these are optimized to make you swipe, 0:36:51.239 --> 0:36:52.879 And so I think you need to, like, you can't 0:36:52.960 --> 0:36:57.120 judge the entire category by just doing one, and I 0:36:57.160 --> 0:36:59.080 would just you know, encourage people to experiment with a 0:36:59.080 --> 0:37:00.840 lot of them if if that's what they're looking for, 0:37:01.040 --> 0:37:04.080 because they're very very different experiences app to app. Well, 0:37:04.200 --> 0:37:09.400 this has been obviously some very useful insight into dating 0:37:09.480 --> 0:37:12.919 and how to produce Alpha book. But we can't end 0:37:13.760 --> 0:37:17.560 without talking at least a little bit about how you're 0:37:17.640 --> 0:37:20.960 actually using your research. I mean, there's only so many 0:37:21.320 --> 0:37:24.600 you know, obviously there's publicly traded online dating companies, but 0:37:24.640 --> 0:37:27.440 not many like Matches one of them. What big picture, 0:37:27.600 --> 0:37:29.960 this is research that you've done as part of your 0:37:30.000 --> 0:37:33.600 fund and you talk about investing in dynamics that are 0:37:33.640 --> 0:37:36.319 going to change the world over the next five to 0:37:36.360 --> 0:37:39.600 ten years. So as you continue to build on this research, 0:37:40.120 --> 0:37:43.560 where are the areas that people might look to see 0:37:43.920 --> 0:37:48.719 the ramifications of the change in dating or mating habits 0:37:49.040 --> 0:37:52.720 show up in the world of in the investable universe. 0:37:53.000 --> 0:37:55.880 So obviously there's the publicly traded dating companies and you 0:37:55.920 --> 0:37:58.200 know full disclosure we're long one of them. It's not 0:37:58.320 --> 0:38:01.040 hard to guess which one. But I think one of 0:38:01.040 --> 0:38:02.960 the things that really drew me into this subject to 0:38:03.040 --> 0:38:05.080 dig into it deeper, and we're gonna be putting out 0:38:05.080 --> 0:38:08.840 more research on this is household formation as a concept 0:38:08.920 --> 0:38:12.920 has been a major driver of economic spending, you know, 0:38:13.080 --> 0:38:18.160 purchasing a house, having kids, buying all this stuff, and 0:38:18.400 --> 0:38:21.520 this is changing that dynamic. It's not eliminating it, but 0:38:21.560 --> 0:38:23.600 it's changing it. And one of the things you've seen 0:38:23.600 --> 0:38:24.680 in the last few year is that you know, a 0:38:24.719 --> 0:38:28.640 lot of people comment on online all the time, is okay, 0:38:28.640 --> 0:38:30.960 why are people getting married at different ages? And a 0:38:31.000 --> 0:38:32.719 lot of people have jumped straight to oh, well, it's 0:38:32.760 --> 0:38:35.960 just economic uncertainty, And no doubt it is one of 0:38:35.960 --> 0:38:39.120 the variables in that equation is is economic uncertainty. But 0:38:39.160 --> 0:38:42.920 I think online dating is actually very underappreciated factors. So 0:38:43.000 --> 0:38:45.680 it might be a one percent waiting, but people might 0:38:45.719 --> 0:38:47.279 have it in one percent waiting, but I think it's 0:38:47.320 --> 0:38:50.520 probably more like a twenty or waiting because I think 0:38:50.520 --> 0:38:52.279 when people get in a position where they're looking to 0:38:52.280 --> 0:38:55.520 get married, that priorities reshift a lot. So I think 0:38:55.680 --> 0:38:59.520 adding online dating in with what the income distribution the 0:38:59.560 --> 0:39:02.799 United States really looks like, particularly among young people, and 0:39:02.840 --> 0:39:06.200 particularly around housing prices and certain geographies is a very 0:39:06.280 --> 0:39:09.920 very important explanatory variable. And so we're very focused on 0:39:10.040 --> 0:39:12.200 another secular theme that we're very focused on. It will 0:39:12.239 --> 0:39:14.239 probably be one of our next papers. I'm not sure 0:39:14.239 --> 0:39:15.680 if it will be the first one or you know, 0:39:15.680 --> 0:39:17.560 but it really coming out in the near future is 0:39:17.600 --> 0:39:21.080 around affordable housing. There's a massive structural shortage of affordable 0:39:21.120 --> 0:39:23.759 housing in the United States, and you could argue it's 0:39:23.800 --> 0:39:25.640 ten to thirty million people, and you could argue that 0:39:25.680 --> 0:39:28.319 it's growing. That shortage is growing at twenty to thirty 0:39:28.360 --> 0:39:31.279 percent a year, and if that isn't solved in the 0:39:31.320 --> 0:39:34.120 next five years, it's the only issue in every election. 0:39:34.160 --> 0:39:37.040 And I'm baffled that this is not a bigger discussion. 0:39:37.520 --> 0:39:40.080 So we think looking at the affordable housing shortage in 0:39:40.160 --> 0:39:44.640 conjunction with people getting married later and also is going 0:39:44.680 --> 0:39:46.760 to be a huge huge issue in terms of Okay, 0:39:46.760 --> 0:39:50.960 how do families actually form, and then how many kids 0:39:50.960 --> 0:39:52.400 are people having and what does that do to the 0:39:52.440 --> 0:39:56.560 demographic kalens the United States, especially with our immigration policy 0:39:56.600 --> 0:39:59.480 being fairly restrictive, right Now in addition to that, I think, 0:39:59.480 --> 0:40:02.560 as I said, it is an instagrammification of dating. And 0:40:02.600 --> 0:40:05.640 so you're seeing massive shifts and consumer trends. And I 0:40:05.640 --> 0:40:07.279 don't know if you guys have noticed this, but there's 0:40:07.320 --> 0:40:09.960 a huge boom and male cosmetics. And I don't mean 0:40:10.000 --> 0:40:11.680 like just makeup. I mean there's a makeup brand I 0:40:11.719 --> 0:40:13.760 was told about that's for men. It's called war Paint, 0:40:14.280 --> 0:40:15.880 which I don't know an think about it beyond that, 0:40:15.960 --> 0:40:18.600 but I think that's amazing branding. But you're seeing like 0:40:18.680 --> 0:40:20.560 all these you know, I think they begin with beards. 0:40:20.600 --> 0:40:23.880 There's been all these beard oils and waxes, and you know, 0:40:23.880 --> 0:40:27.359 there's some company called Manscape is selling a male hair 0:40:27.440 --> 0:40:30.720 trimmer and they have these hilarious ads. And now there's 0:40:30.840 --> 0:40:33.000 the number of different male moisturizer brands. I was in 0:40:33.040 --> 0:40:35.200 a target yesterday. There was an entire aisle of just 0:40:35.360 --> 0:40:38.480 male skincare stuff. And to see that in a target 0:40:38.480 --> 0:40:40.719 and risk in Virginia five or ten years ago is 0:40:40.760 --> 0:40:43.880 completely unthinkable. I mean, it's ridiculous. And so I think 0:40:43.880 --> 0:40:47.520 you're staying huge trends in particularly the startup market in 0:40:47.880 --> 0:40:51.560 CPGs based off of people needing to look better on 0:40:51.719 --> 0:40:55.759 camera to find somebody, and I think it's changing everything else. 0:40:55.800 --> 0:40:57.160 And I think one of the other things that's not 0:40:57.160 --> 0:40:59.920 appreciated is, you know, when you look at something like 0:41:00.080 --> 0:41:02.160 match Group, you know, there's an argument you made that 0:41:02.440 --> 0:41:05.400 they have a dominant position in that market. They just 0:41:05.440 --> 0:41:07.879 did a partnership with Open Table, and so what they're 0:41:07.920 --> 0:41:09.840 doing is they're going to partner with Open Table and 0:41:09.880 --> 0:41:13.600 they're gonna place dates at restaurants. The margin that a 0:41:13.680 --> 0:41:17.560 restaurant earns from somebody who is just going in and 0:41:17.600 --> 0:41:21.200 buying a few drinks is astronomical compared to any other 0:41:21.200 --> 0:41:23.920 type of customer they have, so they can actually pay 0:41:24.000 --> 0:41:26.040 quite a bit for that. So what I'm also interested 0:41:26.080 --> 0:41:28.239 to see, Okay, what other types of business models come 0:41:28.280 --> 0:41:31.400 out of online dating. Did they start selling these cosmetics directly? 0:41:31.480 --> 0:41:35.520 They start selling seats at bars, they start selling event tickets. 0:41:35.880 --> 0:41:37.680 Did they start doing them your curated thing. One of 0:41:37.680 --> 0:41:39.319 the questions that I had that I looked at a 0:41:39.320 --> 0:41:41.759 lot when I was thinking about starting one was why 0:41:41.840 --> 0:41:43.880 is there not an app that kind of continues to 0:41:43.920 --> 0:41:46.160 work with you as you date. Why don't they Because 0:41:46.160 --> 0:41:48.200 they'll they'll do a promotion and say Hey, you know, 0:41:48.320 --> 0:41:51.480 five dollars off movie tickets or something. But why are 0:41:51.480 --> 0:41:54.360 they not continuing to provide data date ideas? Why is 0:41:54.400 --> 0:41:56.920 it not you know, the wine and painting thing, or 0:41:57.440 --> 0:41:59.799 you know, go to Trapez on the West Side and 0:41:59.840 --> 0:42:02.200 you or or something like that. I think there's a 0:42:02.239 --> 0:42:07.040 lot of ways that products will be marketed through these 0:42:07.080 --> 0:42:10.080 online dating platforms. So the online dating platforms are going 0:42:10.120 --> 0:42:12.960 to change consumer demands. It's going to change how houseful 0:42:12.960 --> 0:42:15.520 information is working. I think people are gonna start to 0:42:15.640 --> 0:42:18.399 route a lot of products through online dating because it's 0:42:18.440 --> 0:42:23.000 becoming a central nexus. And I think people below you know, thirty, 0:42:23.080 --> 0:42:25.439 I think more of them are using Tender and things 0:42:25.480 --> 0:42:27.680 like that on a daily basis and are using Facebook. 0:42:28.120 --> 0:42:30.560 The opportunity to sell through there is huge, and so 0:42:30.600 --> 0:42:32.680 it's gonna be this kind of nexus point between all 0:42:32.760 --> 0:42:35.160 these big drivers. And maybe it's not that big of 0:42:35.200 --> 0:42:37.200 a dollar category right now, but I think when you 0:42:37.200 --> 0:42:40.280 think about it demographically going forward, particularly if you assume 0:42:40.360 --> 0:42:42.440 that you know, people are not going to stop online 0:42:42.520 --> 0:42:44.880 dating as they get older, if they're single again or 0:42:45.080 --> 0:42:47.279 remain single, And that's what we're saying is they're seeing 0:42:47.280 --> 0:42:50.120 older in order cohorts get online dating. So if you 0:42:50.120 --> 0:42:52.839 think that this is gonna be the way people date 0:42:52.880 --> 0:42:55.680 twenty years from now, and I do, then this is 0:42:55.680 --> 0:42:58.960 going to be a massively important area to watch because 0:42:58.960 --> 0:43:01.799 it's gonna give you leading indicators on household formation, it's 0:43:01.800 --> 0:43:04.960 going to give you leading indicators on consumer brands. It's 0:43:04.960 --> 0:43:07.479 gonna give you leading indicators on you know, what's cool 0:43:07.560 --> 0:43:09.640 what's not cool. I mean you can see this on 0:43:09.680 --> 0:43:12.879 Instagram all the time. People on Instagram are showing off 0:43:12.960 --> 0:43:15.200 what they think are cool products, are cool things to do, 0:43:15.280 --> 0:43:17.880 or this that or whatever. But online dating is a 0:43:17.920 --> 0:43:20.360 super condensed version of that. You're not putting a picture 0:43:20.360 --> 0:43:23.279 of yourself or content of yourself on an online dating 0:43:23.280 --> 0:43:26.239 platform unless you think that is attractive to people. So 0:43:26.280 --> 0:43:28.680 it's very very interesting the data and the insights that 0:43:28.680 --> 0:43:30.080 can come out of this, and I think it has 0:43:30.120 --> 0:43:33.919 huge implications for most of not all sectors. And it's 0:43:33.920 --> 0:43:36.440 one of my favorite macro indicators actually looking at what's 0:43:36.440 --> 0:43:38.319 going on in this dating market, not on a short 0:43:38.440 --> 0:43:40.360 term basis, but I mean on a long term agrift 0:43:40.360 --> 0:43:42.600 demographic basis. And I think it's also going to completely 0:43:42.680 --> 0:43:46.719 reshape the entire societies in more conservative areas of the world, 0:43:46.719 --> 0:43:48.399 where women are going to be able to step out 0:43:49.000 --> 0:43:52.759 from behind a patriarchal society and have agency around their sexuality, 0:43:52.800 --> 0:43:55.719 agency around their dating, agency around their marriage. You know, 0:43:55.880 --> 0:43:58.400 it's not gonna happen all at once, and it's not 0:43:58.440 --> 0:44:00.520 going to allow them to immediately snap the fingers and 0:44:00.560 --> 0:44:03.319 be all good, but it's going to have this net 0:44:03.360 --> 0:44:05.799 effect of starting a ripple process. It's just not going 0:44:05.840 --> 0:44:08.040 to stop. And so I think that what's the biggest 0:44:08.080 --> 0:44:09.880 point about online dating this interesting to me is what 0:44:09.960 --> 0:44:11.759 is it going to do to emerging markets? And so 0:44:11.800 --> 0:44:14.000 a lot of the big these emerging markets right now 0:44:14.160 --> 0:44:17.080 is basically, other than plumbing, which is a huge issue, 0:44:17.719 --> 0:44:20.920 smartphones are having this completely revolutionary idea. A lot of 0:44:20.920 --> 0:44:24.520 people look at protests and things like that and they say, oh, well, 0:44:24.920 --> 0:44:27.840 these protests are happening because the people are tired of 0:44:27.840 --> 0:44:29.560 the corruption, and you know, I think they've been tired 0:44:29.600 --> 0:44:31.719 of the coruption for a long time. The reason they're 0:44:31.719 --> 0:44:34.360 protesting is they can coordinate, so they have smartphones. So 0:44:34.480 --> 0:44:37.440 smartphones this vector that's changing every country in the world, 0:44:37.440 --> 0:44:39.560 in the US as well, but not as much as 0:44:39.600 --> 0:44:43.480 it's changing other countries. And I think that the specific 0:44:43.560 --> 0:44:47.600 subvector within smartphones that's mattering the most emerging markets is 0:44:47.640 --> 0:44:50.960 actually online dating, because it's going to unlock the value 0:44:51.000 --> 0:44:53.480 and the agency and all the power of all the women, 0:44:53.520 --> 0:44:56.120 which is half the damn population, and it's just gonna 0:44:56.160 --> 0:44:58.000 be it's gonna be a much bigger issue. This is 0:44:58.040 --> 0:45:01.680 not about people looking go out get laid at the bar. 0:45:01.960 --> 0:45:06.160 This is a huge deal. Dan McMurtry, that was great. 0:45:06.360 --> 0:45:11.080 Really enjoyed that conversation so much richer and thought provoking 0:45:11.440 --> 0:45:14.080 than I had previously thought about the subject, which I 0:45:14.120 --> 0:45:16.520 guess is kind of the whole reason you got into this. 0:45:16.560 --> 0:45:20.239 But really appreciate you joining us. Thank you guys so much, 0:45:20.239 --> 0:45:22.839 Really appreciate it. Happy to come on anytime. Thanks Dan. 0:45:23.120 --> 0:45:38.759 Thanks Dan. That was great. Tracy. That really was, as 0:45:38.800 --> 0:45:41.719 I said at the end, sort of far more interesting 0:45:41.960 --> 0:45:46.040 in terms of the ramifications and follow on effects of 0:45:46.120 --> 0:45:49.080 online dating than I had ever really thought about before. 0:45:49.520 --> 0:45:51.080 I don't know about you, but it kind of has 0:45:51.120 --> 0:45:54.800 me thinking about what my Tinder, my hypothetical Tinder profile 0:45:54.920 --> 0:45:57.520 would actually look like. And I think, based on Dan's 0:45:57.600 --> 0:46:00.480 observations and his dating advice, I would have to put 0:46:00.560 --> 0:46:05.040 something about like I'm really good at delayed gratifications skills, 0:46:05.040 --> 0:46:07.960 like that's what he might. Oh wait, that actually sounds 0:46:07.960 --> 0:46:11.000 really bad. No. I think the idea is to demonstrate 0:46:11.520 --> 0:46:15.200 that you have to pursuit right. Oh yes, that's right, 0:46:15.400 --> 0:46:21.160 demonstrates that that attracts people who have delayed gratifications. So 0:46:21.680 --> 0:46:24.040 the other thing that comes through from it is just 0:46:24.440 --> 0:46:27.839 he mentioned the gamification of the entire dating strategy, which 0:46:27.880 --> 0:46:30.520 is why, like they say, for guys on Tinder, you're 0:46:30.560 --> 0:46:34.279 just supposed to swipe right constantly just to increase your 0:46:34.360 --> 0:46:37.319 chances of getting a match. I didn't realize that the 0:46:37.520 --> 0:46:39.960 time at which the time of day at which you 0:46:40.040 --> 0:46:42.400 do it actually matters as well. That I was wondering 0:46:42.440 --> 0:46:44.200 about that too, because maybe that would be my one 0:46:44.280 --> 0:46:46.480 edge because I always get up at four am, So 0:46:46.520 --> 0:46:48.400 I was thinking like, well, if I were getting up 0:46:48.440 --> 0:46:50.200 at four am, I wonder if that would help me. 0:46:50.320 --> 0:46:53.600 Like in the queue, you also have to wonder what 0:46:53.680 --> 0:46:57.319 kind of people you're matching with it four am, I 0:46:57.360 --> 0:47:01.520 can only imagine. But on his areous note, I mean 0:47:01.680 --> 0:47:05.600 this notion that our economic models aren't really taking to 0:47:05.960 --> 0:47:09.520 taking into account. What is a sweeping change to the 0:47:09.560 --> 0:47:12.440 way society works. I think is a really interesting one, 0:47:12.480 --> 0:47:15.080 and Dan made a very very good case for why 0:47:15.600 --> 0:47:18.640 it matters in the broader economy and in the broader 0:47:18.680 --> 0:47:22.040 consumer market as well. Yeah. Absolutely people should read the 0:47:22.080 --> 0:47:25.759 paper and follow him. Yeah, for sure. The paper is 0:47:25.840 --> 0:47:31.280 highly amusing. As mentioned earlier, this has been another edition 0:47:31.360 --> 0:47:34.120 of the Odd Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can 0:47:34.160 --> 0:47:37.600 follow me on Twitter at Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe 0:47:37.640 --> 0:47:40.000 Why Isn't All? You could follow me on Twitter at 0:47:40.040 --> 0:47:43.920 the Stalwart and you should definitely follow our guest today, 0:47:44.040 --> 0:47:49.200 Dan McMurtry. He's at super Mugatu on Twitter. He's really 0:47:49.239 --> 0:47:52.080 great because actually for a long time he was tseudonymous 0:47:52.120 --> 0:47:54.360 and then at the time that he unveiled his dating paper, 0:47:54.440 --> 0:47:57.719 he revealed his name to the public. Everyone should go 0:47:57.800 --> 0:48:00.000 check it out. You could find links to the paper 0:48:00.080 --> 0:48:02.040 or is there and all the other insights, all of 0:48:02.040 --> 0:48:05.320 which are worth following. Be sure to follow our producer 0:48:05.440 --> 0:48:09.040 on Twitter, Laura Carlson. She's at Laura M. Carlson, and 0:48:09.239 --> 0:48:13.239 follow all of the Bloomberg podcast on Twitter at podcasts. 0:48:13.480 --> 0:48:14.200 Thanks for listening.