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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Action.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go in front of the test

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Speaker 2: throwing out so spect we're sitting. It's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 2: We'll see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 2: they go to win. That's incredible. Being bank small banks,

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Speaker 2: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 2: ultimate combine if you want to fall and we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Hello, Hello, everybody, Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented

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Speaker 3: by DraftKings. I am your host, Evan Abrams and of

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Speaker 3: course Conference Championship week. I am joined by one the only,

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Speaker 3: Brandon Anderson. For some best bets for this week. We'll

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Speaker 3: talk about the Super Bowl as well, maybe a little

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Speaker 3: look ahead at the end there. But I'm gonna start

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Speaker 3: you off with just a fun little stat on the Patriots.

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Speaker 3: So they entered the season as eighty to one shots

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Speaker 3: to win the Super Bowl. Now they are the long

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Speaker 3: shot in terms of those odds in the final four

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Speaker 3: in the Conference Championship here. So in the last fifty years,

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Speaker 3: they are the eleventh team to reach a conference championship

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Speaker 3: with preseason odds up eighty to one or higher. Of

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Speaker 3: the previous ten teams, seven lost in this round. Two

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Speaker 3: lost in the Super Bowl and just then ninety nine

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Speaker 3: Rams went on to win it all at one hundred

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Speaker 3: and fifty to one. Odds Now, I thought this was

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Speaker 3: intriguing that the Patriots, of that group of eleven teams

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Speaker 3: is actually just the third who was a favorite in

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Speaker 3: the game. So twenty sixteen, the Falcons were eighty to one.

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Speaker 3: They won this game. They were favored by six and

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Speaker 3: a half against the Packers blew them out, and then

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Speaker 3: the ninety nine Rams at one hundred and fifty to

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Speaker 3: one were actually fourteen point favorites over the Bucks. So

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Speaker 3: both teams who were long shots during the season getting

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Speaker 3: to this round who became favorites ended up coming through.

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Speaker 3: Obviously a unique situation this week with Jared Stidham, I

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Speaker 3: think the Patriots probably would have been underdogs. I saw

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Speaker 3: about one and a half two points on the line

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Speaker 3: if bon Nicks was playing, But that is not the

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Speaker 3: situation that has been handed to them, so Brandon in

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Speaker 3: terms of just I mean, I think it's hard not

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Speaker 3: to start and talk about Stidham and Knicks and kind

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Speaker 3: of the drop off, and I think that's probably the

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Speaker 3: biggest storyline aside from what I think many would say

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Speaker 3: is the better game in the NFC. But what are

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Speaker 3: your thoughts overall on all that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's kind of representative of the season

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Speaker 2: that we've had, right that we've got this big underdog,

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Speaker 2: but it's really too A lot of times you get

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Speaker 2: the one underdog crashing the party. Of the three favorites.

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Speaker 2: We don't even really have that happening right now, Like

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Speaker 2: these are the favorites now, but it's not like these

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Speaker 2: were the favorites before the season. Then Oh, here are

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Speaker 2: the Patriots on top of it. Seahawks was seventy to

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Speaker 2: one last February, and I know that because that was

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Speaker 2: our first Super Bowl bet that we gave out when

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Speaker 2: the new odds posted that very first week. So they're

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Speaker 2: just as much Vanerloper here, almost as as the Patriots are.

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Speaker 2: The Broncos are the underdog now because they don't have

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Speaker 2: are back, and then the Rams are the favorites but

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Speaker 2: haven't really played good football for like a month of

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Speaker 2: games at this point, and they're the team that most people,

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Speaker 2: including the betting market I think thinks is the best team.

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Speaker 2: But they're on the road. They've been on the road

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Speaker 2: twice already. We've got all the stats fading teams that

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Speaker 2: continue to play on the road all the time, they've

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Speaker 2: not had a rest week. There's lots of things to

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Speaker 2: feel bad about all four of these teams. Here no

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Speaker 2: clear favorite, and I think that that's kind of right,

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Speaker 2: like that's the season that we've had, and it sort

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Speaker 2: of feels right that, you know, in a way, here

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Speaker 2: we have in the AFC one versus two. In the NFC,

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Speaker 2: it's one versus five, but it's really one versus two

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Speaker 2: if we're being honest. This is the two teams we

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Speaker 2: thought was one and two all season. So here we

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Speaker 2: go all this chaos all season and went up with

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Speaker 2: kind of a chalky final four based on what the

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Speaker 2: playoff bracket gave us. But it doesn't feel that way,

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Speaker 2: and the odds don't feel that way, and predicting the

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Speaker 2: games is gonna be tough. So yeah, we're gonna get

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Speaker 2: creative today because I'm not really come now firing really

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Speaker 2: confident on like oh yeah, you know a lot of

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Speaker 2: times with these games that the home favorite, the one

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Speaker 2: seed is just like, yeah, this is the team, they've

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Speaker 2: been the best all year. You've got to really make

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Speaker 2: a case against them. We don't really have that in

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Speaker 2: these games. So it makes it fun to watch in

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Speaker 2: triggering to look at on Sunday, but hard to bet.

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Speaker 2: And that's the job. So it's gonna involve some matchups,

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Speaker 2: some analysis, and then a lot of props and things

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Speaker 2: like that.

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Speaker 3: Today, Yeah, I think we're used to the dominant quarterback

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Speaker 3: and that being the team that is favored, and that

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Speaker 3: being the situation that everyone assumes is going to win

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Speaker 3: this year, that team with the experience is the underdog.

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Speaker 3: So I do think it is a bit of it,

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Speaker 3: and especially having won a Super Bowl as well. So

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Speaker 3: and if Seattle and New England both advanced, I have

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Speaker 3: them at sixty to one in there, so you get

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Speaker 3: a sixty to one shot and an eighty to one shot.

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Speaker 3: So some people should have some fun tickets. But if

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Speaker 3: you'd like to tell some of the bets we're about

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Speaker 3: to discuss, find the quicksip link in the podcast and

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Speaker 3: video description, or visit actionnetwork dot com, slash bet now,

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Speaker 3: or even better, just sign up for rack Pro. Action

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Speaker 3: pro usually get real time alerts as exports like Stuckey

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Speaker 3: brand Chris rab On all track their picks in the

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Speaker 3: action app. Also, you'll get real time money percentages to

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Speaker 3: see where the smart money is flowing. An access to

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Speaker 3: our NFL player prop projections powered by Sean Kerner. You

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Speaker 3: can also get those projections live during the games Live

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Speaker 3: player props, which is always a fun angle. Just go

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Speaker 3: to Action hour dot com slash pro to get started.

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Speaker 3: Use a promo code pod twenty twenty dollars off annual subscription.

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Speaker 3: Com slash Pro. All right, let's do it. So AFC

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Speaker 3: Championship is how we start the weekend on Sunday, three

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Speaker 3: o'clock Easter. And right now, that line as we record

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Speaker 3: is about four and a half for New England. I

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Speaker 3: saw it as high as five and a half and

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Speaker 3: six at some shops, but it has come down and

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Speaker 3: the total which was about forty and a half now

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Speaker 3: up to forty two and a half. So you've seen

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Speaker 3: some buy back there, a little bit of move on

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Speaker 3: the over on game. I'll let you kind of start that, Brandon,

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Speaker 3: New England, Denver. What was the first one or two

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Speaker 3: things you looked at when analyzing the matchup?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so obviously the quarterback things stands out, But I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna start with some of the other matchup stuff and

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Speaker 2: we'll get to the quarterback. So we'll start here. Broncos

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Speaker 2: and Patriots are two teams I personally haven't really believed

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Speaker 2: in all year. We've been betting against both of these

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Speaker 2: teams over and over on this podcast. I still don't

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Speaker 2: actually have either one of them top seven of my

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Speaker 2: power ratings. Obviously we're down to four teams now, but

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Speaker 2: still considering the whole league. Last week on the pod,

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Speaker 2: I put Denver on FRAU to watch. I came out

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Speaker 2: heavy swinging with Buffalo. Look, we lost a bunch of

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Speaker 2: the bets, we still were profitable on the team total.

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Speaker 2: I'm not totally sure that the stats of the result

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Speaker 2: proved us wrong on that one. It took five bills

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Speaker 2: turnovers like seven straight fifty to fifty calls down the stretch,

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Speaker 2: all that to eke out a lucky overtime win as

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Speaker 2: home favorites for Denver. So I still have some doubts

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Speaker 2: on both of these teams, but I can't them both anymore.

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Speaker 2: They're playing each other and typically, Look, I'll be honest,

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Speaker 2: if this game was in like November third or something,

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Speaker 2: I probably wouldn't have a play on this game because

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Speaker 2: I have been off on these teams all year, but

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Speaker 2: it's the AFC Championship. You can't just punt on a

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Speaker 2: game at this point. So I had to start here

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Speaker 2: with not really knowing on either of these teams. But

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Speaker 2: I have had Denver slightly ahead of New England kind

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Speaker 2: of all the way. Slowly they've been moving up in

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Speaker 2: my power ratings, but Denver has been ahead. Of course.

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Speaker 2: Then there is the quarterback thing, but by season long numbers,

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Speaker 2: I think the weak link here is still the Patriots defense,

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Speaker 2: twenty fifth in DVAWA on the season. Denver's offense, we've

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Speaker 2: talked about this last six weeks of the season up

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Speaker 2: to seventh, really improved down the stretch of course with Bownicks,

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Speaker 2: So then what does that mean, And we've seen the

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Speaker 2: Patriots improving defensively down the stretch. Meanwhile, we talked a

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Speaker 2: lot about last week Denver's defense faded down the stretch,

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Speaker 2: not quite as elite as they had been early on.

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Speaker 2: And the Patriots offense, their strength has not really been

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Speaker 2: that good in the playoffs so far, if we're being honest.

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Speaker 2: They've hit some big plays but not really been underwhelming.

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Speaker 2: If anything, against the Texans and charges good defenses, but

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Speaker 2: they haven't done a lot. So Patriots offense faced only

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Speaker 2: one top five defense all regular season. Now this is

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Speaker 2: three in a row in the playoffs. In that one

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Speaker 2: regular season game that was Cleveland, they only had one

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Speaker 2: drive over seven plays in that game. They ended up

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Speaker 2: getting some points, but a lot of it came on

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Speaker 2: short field turnovers that sort of thing, and haven't really

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Speaker 2: looked that great in the playoffs outside of hitting some

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Speaker 2: big plays, which those count, but they're not gonna move

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Speaker 2: the ball up and down the field a lot. Denver's

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Speaker 2: defense I do think matches up pretty well here. So

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Speaker 2: here's some of the things I like. Denver is way

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Speaker 2: better defending the outside run. They funnel in and stop outside.

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Speaker 2: That's a good strategy overall because inside runs are going

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Speaker 2: to be shorter generally, and you're limiting the explosives by outside.

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Speaker 2: Patriots have the ball well inside, They've got broken some

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Speaker 2: big ones outside, so I think that matches pretty well.

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Speaker 2: Patriots are also very pass heavy and as we've said

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Speaker 2: a lot about them, number one explosive rate in the

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Speaker 2: league offensively, some running, but especially passing. Well, guess who's

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Speaker 2: number one limiting explosives. It's Denver. They have been the

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Speaker 2: best only eight percent of the plays against them all

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Speaker 2: season explosive plays, including just last week on deep passes

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Speaker 2: Josh Allen, ostensibly the best quarterback in the league, oh

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Speaker 2: of nine on deep passes, two interceptions. You can't really

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Speaker 2: do much worse than that. Another big thing I think

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Speaker 2: is Denver's pressure rate. They had more pressures this season

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Speaker 2: defensively than any other team, and I'm a little worried

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Speaker 2: about the Patriots offensive line. They did not look good

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Speaker 2: the last couple of weeks. Will Campbell, the rookie left tackle.

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Speaker 2: Since coming back from injury, he ranks eighty seventh out

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Speaker 2: of ninety eight tackles in pressure rate. That is not good.

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Speaker 2: Jared Wilson the left guard, he's a rookie as well.

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Speaker 2: I think that line is bl to all this pressure

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Speaker 2: and one other swing factor. Denver has been a top

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Speaker 2: five red zone team offense and defense on the season.

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Speaker 2: New England below average offensively, dead last defensively. So if

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Speaker 2: you're looking at how do we make the case for

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Speaker 2: the underdog, these are some of the ways you're building

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Speaker 2: the case. Here is a couple plays in the red

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Speaker 2: zone outweigh heavily all those other plays in between, because

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Speaker 2: it's such a huge swing. It means seven points or

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Speaker 2: three or none. And if that swings one play like

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Speaker 2: that towards Denver, that can help the underdog. One big

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Speaker 2: pressure rate, one big quarterback sack or fumble, that sort

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Speaker 2: of thing on the other side of the matchup. Couple

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Speaker 2: notes on Patriots defense, So that's been the bigger strength

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Speaker 2: for them lately. I think it's a bit of a

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Speaker 2: cell high spot. You have the stat in your column, Evan,

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Speaker 2: six teams have allowed sixteen points are last coming to

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Speaker 2: the conference championship. Those teams are zero to six in

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Speaker 2: that game. Patriots are not a sixteen points or less defense.

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Speaker 2: They are not as good as they've looked. And here's

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Speaker 2: the huge difference in this game. Texans and Chargers terrible

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Speaker 2: offensive line, as bad as anyone in the league. Broncos

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Speaker 2: are a top three offensive line, and that's going to

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Speaker 2: be a huge, I think shock to the system for

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Speaker 2: these Patriots pass rushers that haven't really been that good

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Speaker 2: this season and have got kind of lived in the

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Speaker 2: backfield against no blockers. Now they're facing a much much

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Speaker 2: better line and that line to come back to the quarterbacks. Now.

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Speaker 2: I think it gives Jared's to them a real chance.

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Speaker 2: I think that offensive line can help Denver break some

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Speaker 2: long outside runs, give them a run game. And I

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Speaker 2: think it can give him a pocket to do some passes.

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Speaker 2: Denver is heavy on short passes, fall out quick. That's

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Speaker 2: going to give your quarterback a shot. Bowen Nicks, I

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Speaker 2: think was floor for this team, not ceiling. I underestimated

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Speaker 2: his floor as a quarterback. He really has been good

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Speaker 2: for them. But what if the floor was actually the

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Speaker 2: line and Sean Payton and the system and Bonix fitting

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Speaker 2: into that. To me, that's the setup here. I think

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Speaker 2: the matchup tells us Denver has some real advantages here,

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Speaker 2: enough to have a real shot in this game.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, let me ask you a question. I'm interested

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Speaker 3: in your answer, and then I'll give you a few

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Speaker 3: stats on my angle. So, just hypothetically, let's say Bonnix

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Speaker 3: is an injured he's playing in this game, Denver is

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Speaker 3: minus one and a half minus two. Does this at

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Speaker 3: all change your handicap? I know you seem to be

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Speaker 3: leaning towards liking the Broncos with the points here, but

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Speaker 3: let's just change the angle for a second, just for

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Speaker 3: the audience. If BO is in there and the line

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Speaker 3: is one and a half too, are you probably laying

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Speaker 3: that short line, maybe taking the money line and liking Denver,

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Speaker 3: or do you think the value has kind of created

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Speaker 3: itself around the backup quarterback.

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Speaker 2: So I think it's both. I think that's a great question. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: this was actually my second choice look ahead game heading

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Speaker 2: into the weekend. Last week. Well, I was doing a

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Speaker 2: look ahead at the end. Here we'll do a super

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Speaker 2: Bowl look ahead. Now. It was one and a half

259
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Speaker 2: at a major book. I had the line just over

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Speaker 2: three for Denver gus the home field advantage and the

261
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Speaker 2: slightly better team. So if I'm past the key number

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Speaker 2: and getting a one and a half, that's not a

263
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Speaker 2: huge margin for many better As it is, my number

264
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Speaker 2: is a little wider out than most, So I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: bet Denver, but less confidently or less big. Now though

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Speaker 2: that margin it already had built in is added even further,

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Speaker 2: and we'll talk about some of the line move stuff

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Speaker 2: that I think has created a ton of value here.

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Speaker 2: So I think I don't I think I would have

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Speaker 2: been more confident about the bet with next, but I

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Speaker 2: think there is bigger margin for the bet with Stidham

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Speaker 2: because of the way that the line has moved, and

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Speaker 2: already I thought was pricing the Patriots incorrectly before, and

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Speaker 2: now it's even more.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we've even seen, like I said, the six to

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Speaker 3: five and a half, seems like those are getting eaten

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Speaker 3: up and probably a four to four and a half

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Speaker 3: might be the right direction where this one might clothes.

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Speaker 3: I'll give you a few stats here, and it kind

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Speaker 3: of it goes in favor of the Broncos on like

281
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Speaker 3: a normal situation. But I'll they say, there's just a

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Speaker 3: massive question mark when you haven't seen a quarterback play

283
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Speaker 3: since twenty twenty three. But usually the team with a

284
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Speaker 3: rest advantage, which is always the case in these conference

285
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Speaker 3: championship games, tend to have an edge which is twenty

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Speaker 3: seven and seventeen I believe, dating back to like two

287
00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:17,679
Speaker 3: thousand and three, two thousand and four, and more importantly,

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Speaker 3: when that team is at home, which is both teams

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Speaker 3: with the rest advantage twenty one and seven, So that

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Speaker 3: is Denver, that is Seattle in this spot. The one

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Speaker 3: other stat I thought was kind of interesting, so I

292
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Speaker 3: wanted to look at Denver versus Good EPA per play offenses,

293
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Speaker 3: and especially recently, so this would be their fourth game,

294
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Speaker 3: I'm sorry, fifth game versus a team, and I believe

295
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Speaker 3: New England right now is number one. So they faced Buffalo, recently,

296
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Speaker 3: they faced Green Bay, they faced Dallas, and they faced

297
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Speaker 3: the Giants. Now they won all four of those games,

298
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Speaker 3: but if you look at the final scores quickly, thirty

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Speaker 3: three to thirty, twenty four, thirty four to twenty six,

300
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Speaker 3: forty four to twenty four, thirty three, thirty two, they

301
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Speaker 3: all require Denver to put up a ton of points

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Speaker 3: to stay in the game. To me, that is the

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Speaker 3: main question here, Like if New England is going to

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Speaker 3: do what we've seen them do recently, Denver is gonna

305
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Speaker 3: have to figure out a way to put up the points,

306
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Speaker 3: which puts a lot of the pressure on their defense,

307
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Speaker 3: and I think that is the key category here. If

308
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Speaker 3: Denver can do what they need to do on the

309
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Speaker 3: defensive side and keep that offensive number lower for New England,

310
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Speaker 3: limit those explosive plays, I think Denver has a heck

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Speaker 3: of a shot to win this game, but I just

312
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Speaker 3: cannot see it where they're going to win a thirty

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Speaker 3: three to thirty thirty twenty five type of game. They're

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Speaker 3: not gonna make it in this one, So that to

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Speaker 3: me was the interesting Look.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, Denver obviously does not want to turn

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Speaker 2: this into a shootout. You don't want Jared Stidham Drake

318
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Speaker 2: May passing it back and forth on each other all

319
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Speaker 2: a game. Even though ironically, the one real Jared Stidham

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Speaker 2: start that we got his first career start back when

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Speaker 2: he was on the Raiders. They played San Francisco, who

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Speaker 2: was the number one defense at the time. They were

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Speaker 2: ten point underdogs. Stidham gets thrown into the fire three

324
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Speaker 2: hundred and sixty five yards and three scores in that game.

325
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Speaker 2: They go to overtime and they end up losing. But

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Speaker 2: that's the first start for Jared Stidham. Why do we

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Speaker 2: see those numbers now, Well, we only have four starts,

328
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Speaker 2: like that's really the only actual data point that we

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Speaker 2: have on Jared'stidham and that was like four years ago.

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Speaker 2: I think you've seen the stat everywhere. It's in your column,

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Speaker 2: I've seen it elsewhere. Ninth quarterbacks since nineteen fifty making

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Speaker 2: the first star of the playoffs notable. I think those

333
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Speaker 2: quarterbacks are one and seven straight up and the one

334
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Speaker 2: is Frank Reich, which would be an immediate alarm bell

335
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Speaker 2: because that's the dude that was down thirty five to

336
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Speaker 2: three before the biggest comeback in NFL playoff history. That's

337
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Speaker 2: that game. So it's not going well for the backup quarterbacks.

338
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Speaker 2: But we've talked about a little bit already. I think

339
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Speaker 2: the line just moved way too far here. I've seen

340
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Speaker 2: people on Twitter and elsewhere talk about books like, what's

341
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Speaker 2: the line moved from Nick to Stidham? And for me,

342
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Speaker 2: I have it around two or three points. I'm a

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Speaker 2: little light compared to most, but those places that have

344
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Speaker 2: quoted bookmakers have something like four points. I think that's

345
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Speaker 2: a little bit fair. Mine might be a little bit light.

346
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Speaker 2: I tend to you know, you know how I feel

347
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Speaker 2: about bow next. But this was one and a half

348
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Speaker 2: and moved to five and a half. That's a seven

349
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Speaker 2: point swing. Seven points is Josh Allen, seven points is

350
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Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes Like. That is not what Bo Nicks is,

351
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Speaker 2: and I don't really think it's what Jared Stidham is either,

352
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Speaker 2: But we don't know. We don't really know what Stidham is.

353
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Speaker 2: We do know what Nicks is. I think Nicks at

354
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Speaker 2: his best, probably an average is quarterback maybe more realistically

355
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Speaker 2: like eighteenth twentieth I kind of Ryan Tannehill game manager

356
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Speaker 2: type range. He made the big throw last week. Maybe

357
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Speaker 2: this is slanderous the guy that doesn't get to go

358
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Speaker 2: out and play this week. But either way, not Mahomes,

359
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Speaker 2: not Allen. So yeah, if I had Broncos minus three

360
00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:55,720
Speaker 2: ish before with next going to the quarterback here, making

361
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Speaker 2: that switch for me makes this still something of a

362
00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:03,800
Speaker 2: toss up for Denver. Certainly nothing like four five point favorites,

363
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Speaker 2: so some of the other numbers here that are in

364
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Speaker 2: Denver's favor Home playoff underdogs are four more points five

365
00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:13,320
Speaker 2: and oh ats in the last two decades, covering by

366
00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:16,080
Speaker 2: eight points a game. They're two and three straight up,

367
00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:19,399
Speaker 2: but all three losses are heartbreak one score losses. You'd

368
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Speaker 2: probably remember them if you went back down the list.

369
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Speaker 2: I think nine to oh ats all time from your column.

370
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Speaker 2: Home playoff dogs of four more one seeds you want

371
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Speaker 2: to bet the one seed in the conference championship since

372
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Speaker 2: two thousand and six, twenty one and five straight up

373
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Speaker 2: That includes twelve and three straight up against the two seed.

374
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Speaker 2: That's this matchup and includes five and one straight up

375
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Speaker 2: as anything under a field goal favorite, and those teams

376
00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:45,800
Speaker 2: are winning by ten points a game. And though so

377
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Speaker 2: obviously unique spot here because of the backup quarterback, but

378
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Speaker 2: I'm gonna guess Evan, we don't get a lot of

379
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Speaker 2: one seeds at home in the conference championship who are

380
00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:58,199
Speaker 2: short favorites, are underdogs without unique spots like that is

381
00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:00,920
Speaker 2: what these lines are. This is the Nick Foles Eagles

382
00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,680
Speaker 2: game or that sort of spot here. And then one

383
00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:06,399
Speaker 2: more from your call him again, Sean Payton with a

384
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Speaker 2: backup quarterback fourteen and seven ats twelve and nine straight

385
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Speaker 2: up in his career, that's been Teddy Bridgewater. It's Taysom Hill. Look,

386
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Speaker 2: I think that's kind of a good comp Drew Brees'

387
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Speaker 2: late career. Not really Drew Brees, kind of more of

388
00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:24,160
Speaker 2: a game manager, a guy who can limit mistakes, kind

389
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Speaker 2: of bow Nixy. I think that's what Sean Payton likes

390
00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:31,040
Speaker 2: about bow Next. So moving to a different style quarterback,

391
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Speaker 2: Peyton has shown that he can still get his team

392
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Speaker 2: to be competitive. I'm not gonna go on Bronco's money

393
00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:41,960
Speaker 2: line here because it's it's asking a lot for Jared's

394
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Speaker 2: Didham to go win the biggest game of his life

395
00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:45,879
Speaker 2: and get to the super I think they're live and

396
00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:48,760
Speaker 2: I'm the only bat here is Broncos to cover. I

397
00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:50,479
Speaker 2: got on the hot rate at five and a half.

398
00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:52,560
Speaker 2: Like you said, I think it's four and a half now,

399
00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:55,800
Speaker 2: not too significant in all likelihood, kind of a dead

400
00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:58,399
Speaker 2: zone there. I want this about four though. Once we

401
00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:00,639
Speaker 2: get to four, we're starting to push in Keyno numbers.

402
00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:04,320
Speaker 2: So I'll take Denver and the points. I do think

403
00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:07,320
Speaker 2: most likely the Patriots win a close one. It takes

404
00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:10,119
Speaker 2: kind of, you know, some big play late in the game.

405
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:13,520
Speaker 2: But if you want the money line plus two ten,

406
00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,200
Speaker 2: I don't see a ton of value in that. Given

407
00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:18,679
Speaker 2: the stidham of it all and the fact that I

408
00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 2: haven't been in on Denver all season anyways, I'd rather

409
00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:22,920
Speaker 2: just take the points and kind of stay out of

410
00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:24,679
Speaker 2: the way. But if I was going to play a

411
00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:27,399
Speaker 2: money line, that's the only place I'm finding value in

412
00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 2: the game. I just think this line is all wrong

413
00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:29,879
Speaker 2: for Denver.

414
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:32,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, and even if you look at home underdogs in

415
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:35,879
Speaker 3: general in the playoffs since twenty thirteen fifteen four and

416
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:38,880
Speaker 3: two against the spread, and they are covering by five

417
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:42,119
Speaker 3: point five points per game, which to me very indicative

418
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:44,000
Speaker 3: of what we're about to see. Like, if Denver wins

419
00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:46,679
Speaker 3: this game, it's probably gonna be twenty three to twenty.

420
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:49,359
Speaker 3: It'd be a fun exact score. And right there that

421
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:51,720
Speaker 3: is about a seven point swing on the other side,

422
00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,199
Speaker 3: so that would be pretty much in line with the

423
00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:56,919
Speaker 3: five and a half points per game or relatively close.

424
00:20:57,119 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 3: And then you just look since twenty eighteen, those on

425
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:02,879
Speaker 3: a home underdogs in the playoffs nine and six straight up,

426
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:05,919
Speaker 3: twelve and three against a spread. Usually these are tighter

427
00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:08,520
Speaker 3: games than we imagine, but this week is just so

428
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 3: difficult to handicap when you just have no idea what

429
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:13,440
Speaker 3: you're going to get on the other side of the ball.

430
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 3: But Denver's defense, other than maybe Houston and Seattle, I'm

431
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:22,520
Speaker 3: not sure I would pick a better defense at home

432
00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 3: I would want in this scenario. So it's what makes

433
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:29,120
Speaker 3: it a really unique situation in my opinion, is how

434
00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:32,159
Speaker 3: good Denver's defense is and the ability also for certain

435
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:35,399
Speaker 3: to possibly shut down either a wide receiver half the

436
00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:39,080
Speaker 3: field or at least make the number two, number three

437
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 3: slot tight end a little more attractive if you know

438
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:46,520
Speaker 3: they decide to depending on how they decide to use him.

439
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,400
Speaker 3: So to me, that that's the interesting part. I think,

440
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 3: what you want to do some mouthprops on this game?

441
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:51,800
Speaker 3: What do you got?

442
00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say one other thought here. I

443
00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:56,040
Speaker 2: don't have the number on that chair. This is just

444
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,360
Speaker 2: off the top of my head. But if you do

445
00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:00,840
Speaker 2: like Denver to win, if you think the Broncos are

446
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:03,639
Speaker 2: gonna steal this game, I don't think you want to

447
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:06,679
Speaker 2: bet just the money Aligne because now you're probably betting

448
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,240
Speaker 2: on like that late field goal outcome, and you're probably

449
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:13,200
Speaker 2: betting and either Stidham making the drive late or Drake

450
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:16,720
Speaker 2: may not getting the drive late, which you know Denver's defense.

451
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:19,879
Speaker 2: But I think maybe you might even consider rather than

452
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:21,960
Speaker 2: the money align plus two ten not enough for me

453
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:25,160
Speaker 2: to nibble, how about like Broncos minus six or six

454
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 2: and a half or some one of those alts where

455
00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:30,199
Speaker 2: we saw some of those stats. Are these teams that

456
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:32,959
Speaker 2: are winning aren't just winning, they're winning by like ten points,

457
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 2: And wouldn't you rather have stid Of managing the win late?

458
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:40,679
Speaker 2: And maybe you put like a Denver defensive touchdown and

459
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 2: a Denver minus six and throwing a parlay or something

460
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 2: like that, where it's like, Okay, what's the script here?

461
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:50,040
Speaker 2: Why did Denver win? Probably Jared Stidham is not why.

462
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:52,639
Speaker 2: He might be part of how they won, but he's

463
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:55,880
Speaker 2: probably not why they won. Maybe that defense. That part

464
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,400
Speaker 2: of the reason I've been hesitant to like this Vance

465
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:01,040
Speaker 2: Joseph defense is I think they're a little over aggressive,

466
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,440
Speaker 2: and it can be exposed at times. But in this game,

467
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:07,199
Speaker 2: as underdogs, you want the aggression. You want to go

468
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:10,119
Speaker 2: make a play, bring the game to the Patriots. So

469
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:12,879
Speaker 2: I think if you are betting on Denver, you're betting

470
00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:15,359
Speaker 2: on that sort of angle. So I don't if you

471
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 2: want to play Denver, I don't think money line is

472
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,400
Speaker 2: aggressive enough. I think you have to be more aggressive

473
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 2: some way like that. I do have one prop here,

474
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:25,399
Speaker 2: but the prop you've got to kind of play it

475
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:28,640
Speaker 2: carefully here because as a running back prop, I like RJ.

476
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 2: Harvey receptions. But as we are recording, we don't know

477
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,639
Speaker 2: if JK. Dobbins is going to play, so some of

478
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 2: these lines aren't even really up yet. So here's the

479
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:40,719
Speaker 2: reason I like this. Hard to learn too much from

480
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 2: Jared Stidham, but I did go back through his four

481
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 2: starts and some of his preseason numbers and did my

482
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:47,560
Speaker 2: best here. One thing that I think is going to

483
00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 2: be a big downgrade from next Sim's going to get sacked.

484
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:53,720
Speaker 2: He's taken thirteen sacks and four starts. Nick's only about

485
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 2: one per game. I do think Stidham can scramble a

486
00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 2: little bit. He's had some decent runs. I look for

487
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 2: an angle there. I don't really I do think some

488
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 2: negative plays. Nix is really good at limiting negative plays.

489
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:08,160
Speaker 2: One consistent trend though, because he takes all that pressure.

490
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 2: Stiddam passes a lot to running backs. In his two

491
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:14,720
Speaker 2: Denver starts, twenty one of his sixty six passes thirty

492
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 2: two percent. We're targeting running backs about one out of

493
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,320
Speaker 2: every three passes he made. That was kind of the

494
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,399
Speaker 2: case a little bit less so in this preseason as well,

495
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:25,920
Speaker 2: in basically one game of action. He was really good

496
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:29,639
Speaker 2: this preseason, by the way, but you know, preseason Patriots

497
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,439
Speaker 2: bottom of five fantasy points allowed to running backs, but

498
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 2: top five running back receptions. Twelve running backs have had

499
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:39,360
Speaker 2: three more catches, seven have had five or more catches,

500
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 2: and last week RJ. Harvey five catches forty six yards

501
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 2: on six targets. He's had four targets are more six

502
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 2: of the last seven three receptions, and five of those

503
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 2: seven now eleven of eighteen overall. So I wanted a

504
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,960
Speaker 2: Harvey escalator, like three, four or five receptions. Let's get

505
00:24:57,040 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 2: him some catches. But we don't know how Dobbins goes

506
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 2: in the mix, and books haven't given us odds here

507
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,200
Speaker 2: yet because Dobbins is not going to get the catches.

508
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:06,920
Speaker 2: He only has eleven catches and ten games. But if

509
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 2: he plays, that's just less time for Harvey to be

510
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 2: on the field, and I have to like the bet

511
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 2: a little bit less. For now, here's danline. I'm gonna play.

512
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 2: We'll play yards over seventeen and a half receiving yards

513
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 2: for RJ. Harvey. That one in games where he's had

514
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:23,640
Speaker 2: three catches, remember that's the number I wanted. He's ten

515
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 2: of eleven to that line, he's had fourteen yards or

516
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:29,199
Speaker 2: more in all of those games with three catches, eighteen

517
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 2: or more, all but one which hits are over so

518
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 2: over seventeen and a half. And in those eleven games

519
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,160
Speaker 2: when he has three catches, he were just thirty three

520
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:40,160
Speaker 2: yards a game. So just a little escalator thirty yards

521
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,680
Speaker 2: plus two thirty forty yards plus four fifty. He's gone

522
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:47,160
Speaker 2: over that last number four times in eleven games, including

523
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 2: last week in the playoffs forty six yards. So not

524
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 2: too aggressive yet because if Dobbins ends up playing, I

525
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:57,120
Speaker 2: have to like this a little less. But that's part

526
00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:59,119
Speaker 2: of why we're getting the better number here as well.

527
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,119
Speaker 2: That's a little bit of the risk bakedown. So that's my

528
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:03,439
Speaker 2: only prop on this one. I do think we're going

529
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 2: to get some Stidham running back drop offs, and that's

530
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:07,719
Speaker 2: about the best I can come up with from Sidham

531
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:08,520
Speaker 2: angles in this one.

532
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:11,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a volatile situation, especially what you got McLoughlin,

533
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 3: Like you just have a lot of scenarios where you

534
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 3: also don't know what Peyton's going to do from a

535
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 3: game plan standpoint, Like it's truly who the heck knows

536
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:21,320
Speaker 3: He's going to try to figure out what he thinks

537
00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 3: is the best angle to win the game. Just a

538
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 3: backup kind of what you were saying. So, Yeah, Stidham

539
00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:29,399
Speaker 3: has four starts with thirty plus pass attempts. Here is

540
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:32,399
Speaker 3: his targets to running backs in those games six, five,

541
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 3: thirteen and eight, and the thirteen and eight coming with Denver,

542
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 3: the six and five with the Raiders, So even with

543
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:40,280
Speaker 3: those Raiders, and there was a bunch of there was

544
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:43,400
Speaker 3: Josh Jacobs. I mean, it looks like he is targeting

545
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 3: running backs, especially because maybe not dealing with pressure the

546
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 3: absolute best. So I think that's one interesting angle. Then

547
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,440
Speaker 3: you talk about Harvey when he gets four plus targets

548
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:54,880
Speaker 3: four point one receptions per game, when he gets three

549
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 3: plus targets three point seven receptions per game, so he's

550
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,920
Speaker 3: catching the ball, he's getting looks. Those are all good things.

551
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 3: And then you look at the last two playoff games,

552
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 3: going against New England, you had Woody Marks, he had

553
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 3: three targets, two receptions for nineteen yards. Then you look

554
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 3: at Kamani Vedal, three targets, two receptions for twenty yards.

555
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 3: So it's not like we've skipped a game. It looks

556
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:18,119
Speaker 3: like it's pretty consistent. So depending on what the looks

557
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 3: get for Harvey, I think it should be there. But again,

558
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 3: put up your hands a little bit of a question mark.

559
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,239
Speaker 3: You got a lot of backs in this situation, so

560
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 3: I can understand how volatile it is and how dangerous

561
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:31,919
Speaker 3: it is. Though one prop two props very short understood.

562
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 3: You ready to go to the actual varsity side of

563
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 3: the Sunday games. Let's do it all right. So at

564
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:41,120
Speaker 3: the moment it is Rams at Seahawks for the NFC

565
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 3: Championship game six thirty pm Eastern. That line opened about

566
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 3: minus one and a half for Seattle, now up to

567
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:50,360
Speaker 3: two and a half. I saw it touch three very briefly,

568
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:53,160
Speaker 3: but definitely some pushback there. So two and a half

569
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:55,640
Speaker 3: looks like the right mark at the moment. The interesting

570
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 3: thing has been the total. It's kind of moved back

571
00:27:57,600 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 3: and forth a bit. I saw some opens around four

572
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,440
Speaker 3: seven and a half now down to forty six and

573
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 3: a half, so that's where the market has settled. But

574
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:07,800
Speaker 3: again I'll ask you the same question we did with

575
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:10,360
Speaker 3: New England and Denver. This is the third time we're

576
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 3: going to see them. Obviously we've seen this matchup now

577
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 3: I believe this will be the sixth time in the

578
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 3: last two seasons. So you've got a lot of data

579
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:19,959
Speaker 3: to go by, And honestly, is like a handicapper, you know,

580
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 3: when we're going through matchups and players, it's a much

581
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,639
Speaker 3: more fun game. I think to try to handicap and

582
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:27,920
Speaker 3: that's why you've got more props here. But as soon

583
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:29,680
Speaker 3: as you started to break this down, what did you

584
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:30,520
Speaker 3: look at?

585
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:33,720
Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean where I started last week was as

586
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 2: fun as the story was for the Bears and frankly

587
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 2: for the forty nine ers. This is the game that

588
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:41,480
Speaker 2: we wanted. This is the one we wanted to handicap.

589
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 2: This is the one we wanted to watch as fans.

590
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:46,960
Speaker 2: This is awesome, awesome game. The first two matchups were

591
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 2: both electric, both down to the wire. These have been

592
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 2: my two best teams in my power rankings for at

593
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 2: LEG at least half the season by margin. Number one

594
00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 2: scoring offense for the Rams, Number one scoring defense for

595
00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 2: the Seahawks. Number one by e play EPA offense versus

596
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 2: number two EPA by DVA. This is literally the best

597
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 2: matchup they have ever measured between two teams. So we

598
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:11,240
Speaker 2: have neither team lost by more than a touchdown all season,

599
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 2: so we're likely to get a close game here. The

600
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 2: Rams fifteen of nineteen games now against eight win teams

601
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 2: are better, so they're as battle tested as anyone. They've

602
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 2: been the number one offense running and passing all season.

603
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 2: Low variants they show up every week. Seattle seven and

604
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 2: two against playoff teams. They have the best record of

605
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 2: any team in that spot now, eleven game win streak

606
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 2: at home with fans in the stands in the playoffs,

607
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 2: so just an awesome game. You can grab any one

608
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 2: of those numbers and be like, Okay, that's it this side.

609
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 2: Oh wait, but then there's this number on this side,

610
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:45,080
Speaker 2: and that's kind of where you end up going here.

611
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 2: So I've had the Rams firmly ahead of the Seahawks

612
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 2: pretty much the whole way, but the gap slowly closing,

613
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 2: and we've seen it so far. Thing in the playoffs.

614
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:56,560
Speaker 2: The Rams are zeroing too ats three or two three

615
00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 2: point wins. They've kind of escaped both of these games.

616
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 2: And I think you have to admit with the eye test,

617
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 2: at least Matthew Stafford is not playing MVP ball right now.

618
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 2: I don't know if it's the finger injury, if it's

619
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 2: the outdoor conditions, if it's just kind of like they

620
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 2: peak too soon, something like that. But that offense has

621
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 2: not been bad, but it's not been the world killers

622
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 2: that Frankly, they were in Seattle when they played the

623
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 2: last time, when they put up like six hundred yards

624
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 2: of offense. Seattle, on the other hand, they have an

625
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 2: extra day of rest because they played Sunday not Saturday,

626
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:31,320
Speaker 2: and or sorry, they played Saturday and not Sunday. And

627
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 2: they barely played a game like they only played like

628
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:36,239
Speaker 2: half of the game on that one anyways, and they

629
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 2: had two weeks of rest before that one. The Rams

630
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 2: play Sunday, they go long into overtime in the cold weather.

631
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 2: So no doubt a pretty huge rest and health advantage

632
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 2: for Seattle. And I think you had in your column

633
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 2: or I've seen a couple of places. Eighteen of the

634
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 2: last twenty Super Bowl teams had a rest week, either

635
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 2: one that they earned by a bye or maybe they

636
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 2: sat in Week eight team. Remember the Rams didn't do that.

637
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 2: The Rams blue games down the stretch and had to

638
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 2: actually go get a win in Week eighteen. And now

639
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 2: they've had they were supposed to kind of have a

640
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 2: quote bye week against the Panthers. They didn't. It pushed

641
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 2: all the way down to the end. They've had to

642
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 2: put every ounce they've had into it, and I just wonder,

643
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 2: is that finally going to catch up to the Rams here?

644
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 2: And look, they didn't really in my opinion, they didn't

645
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:28,920
Speaker 2: deserve to lose that Seattle game. The last time, some

646
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 2: longkey plays down the stretch, the weird two point conversion,

647
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:35,160
Speaker 2: but they did, they lost, and I think this spot, now,

648
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 2: this is the price that you pay. This is the

649
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:42,120
Speaker 2: spot where like I don't know that you can I'm

650
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 2: trying to remember back there were a couple of games

651
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 2: mid season where it was like a team coming back

652
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 2: from London no rest to something like a crazy home

653
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 2: advantage spot. This is not that, but beyond that, Seattle

654
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 2: in Seattle, with this rest and health advantage, this is

655
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 2: about as big of a home field I can build

656
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 2: in my model to give a team outside of some

657
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 2: of those crazy international travel spots. So in the end,

658
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 2: I think Seattle two and a half feels about right.

659
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 2: I make it about minus two because of the RAMS

660
00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 2: just a little bit better. But I'm not going to

661
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 2: really end up on a side here. In all likelihood,

662
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:19,800
Speaker 2: if it hits three, I'll probably nibble the three with

663
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 2: the RAMS. Two is kind of a key number. Now

664
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 2: we'll talk with the matchup stuff in a little bit,

665
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 2: but I think this is an awesome game. What I

666
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 2: want to know from you is do you think I

667
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:34,320
Speaker 2: think prevailing opinion, even if we're not saying it is

668
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 2: kind of if we're being honest, this is the super Bowl, right,

669
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 2: this is the super Bowl, and then the JV game

670
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 2: is earlier, and I remember Miracle on ice, like the

671
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 2: United States beats the Soviets but stills to go play

672
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 2: the gold medal game. I think the AFC is like

673
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,160
Speaker 2: giving us Finland. Is this the super Bowl? Is that

674
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 2: what's happening in this NFC game?

675
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,040
Speaker 3: Yeah? I think it probably is. I would say Seattle

676
00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 3: would be the stronger power rated team going into the

677
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:01,480
Speaker 3: Super Bowl as well, Like if the Rams get there,

678
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 3: I think people will talk about the experience and they've

679
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 3: been there, and Stafford's been there and all these different

680
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 3: types of stats around the quarterback and the coach. But

681
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:11,240
Speaker 3: to me, Seattle is the better team. And I think

682
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 3: we would all probably hope that New England wins the

683
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 3: first game because I just think the question marks. Even

684
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 3: if Stidham plays a halfway decent game and they come

685
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 3: away twenty three to twenty, I think we would probably

686
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 3: prefer the number one EPA per play offense, Vrabel as

687
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:29,240
Speaker 3: the head coach, and they would get a week plus

688
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 3: ish of rest, two weeks of rest and during that

689
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 3: Super Bowl, which would help them on the health side,

690
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 3: So I think this is probably the Super Bowl. Also,

691
00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:41,480
Speaker 3: I had failed to mention this, but the markets, like

692
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 3: when you look at New England and Denver right now,

693
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 3: you almost have like three quarters of the tickets on

694
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 3: the Patriots, so everyone basically telling you, I want nothing

695
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 3: to do with Denver. Then you look at this game

696
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 3: and it's basically fifty to fifty. I mean, you come

697
00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 3: up with three reasons why you like Seattle, I'll come

698
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 3: back with two more why you could take the Rams.

699
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 3: So I do believe the line is probably right. I

700
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 3: understand resistance at plus three, and I also understand resistance

701
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 3: probably an under minus two. So that's why I kind

702
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 3: of believe this is where it'll settle. They'll get a

703
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:13,800
Speaker 3: lot of money, a lot of tickets on both sides,

704
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 3: and we'll just see how this one plays out. But

705
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 3: I would be shocked, and I think that's why we

706
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:21,479
Speaker 3: had talked about this on the pod a few weeks ago.

707
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 3: Let's just toss the NFC to win the Super Bowl,

708
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:27,800
Speaker 3: and this is why we're here. And this actually worked

709
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:30,320
Speaker 3: out probably ten times better than you would have expected

710
00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:32,319
Speaker 3: in terms of what we see from Game one and

711
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:35,239
Speaker 3: what we're seeing from game two, And honestly, it works

712
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 3: out great from the schedule standpoint, like let's get this

713
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 3: first game kind of out of the way, let's figure

714
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 3: out who survives, and then let's look at what is

715
00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:46,720
Speaker 3: probably the way more interesting matchup. And I think also,

716
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 3: and I hate to kind of keep going with this narrative,

717
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 3: but it's you know, when you get down to this point,

718
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:55,520
Speaker 3: you're looking at all these really minutias, all these really

719
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 3: little things at the game. But I mean, the faith

720
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:00,800
Speaker 3: people have in Sam Darnold, I think is a little

721
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,480
Speaker 3: up in the air. Like we've seen some really good things,

722
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 3: we've also seen some really bad games against the Rams.

723
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:10,920
Speaker 3: So I think a question mark game for Seattle around

724
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:14,239
Speaker 3: Donald where they still win, and people are gonna have

725
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 3: some of those questions going into the Super Bowl. And

726
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 3: I think we're used to again looking at the better quarterback,

727
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:22,359
Speaker 3: the better coach, and them being the favorite and them

728
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 3: moving on. And right now I think many would say,

729
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:27,879
Speaker 3: even with some of the stats, that the better coach

730
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,200
Speaker 3: and the better quarterbacks the underdog in this game because

731
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:33,319
Speaker 3: of a multitude of different factors. No bye week, the

732
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:35,920
Speaker 3: third straight road game, and I'll give you a few

733
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:37,400
Speaker 3: of those stats and then toss it back to you

734
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 3: because I think it's important, which is road trip in Seattle,

735
00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 3: Okay teams are thirteen and forty five straight up in

736
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 3: our database. One in nine last three seasons. NFC West

737
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 3: teams road trip in Seattle three and seventeen, and they've

738
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:57,200
Speaker 3: lost seven straight. Like, this is just not an easy spot.

739
00:35:57,320 --> 00:36:02,279
Speaker 3: Even after overtime, cold, close game in Carolina, need to

740
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 3: win in week eighteen, and honestly, Week eighteen, you know,

741
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 3: was a battle for a lot of that game. So

742
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 3: I think the Rams have really been through it and

743
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:13,640
Speaker 3: their defense. The defense has really declined over the last

744
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 3: i don't know, call it eight weeks or so, since

745
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:18,719
Speaker 3: Week ten, week eleven. It just doesn't look like what

746
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 3: it did earlier in the season. And I think they

747
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:23,640
Speaker 3: got a little lucky. Caleb gave them a ball at

748
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:25,200
Speaker 3: the end of the game that got him here. They

749
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 3: probably should have lost. So just just a fascinating scenario,

750
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 3: But that's the way I look at it.

751
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:32,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll talk through some of the matchup stuff I'm

752
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 2: looking at here, and I kind of already spoiled this,

753
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 2: but I'm not on the side here. I'm gonna give

754
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 2: you all sorts of props. I think I have thirteen props,

755
00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:42,640
Speaker 2: so rest assure there are bets coming here. Perhaps you'll

756
00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:45,239
Speaker 2: hear something as you're listening and maybe kind of lean

757
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 2: toward a side. So one thing I'll start with is,

758
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:50,760
Speaker 2: in the first time these teams played back in Week eleven,

759
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:53,319
Speaker 2: Seattle's offense kind of got exposed a little bit in

760
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:56,000
Speaker 2: that game. So you've probably heard other podcasts. I'll talk

761
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:59,200
Speaker 2: about this a little bit, But so Seattle wants to

762
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:02,920
Speaker 2: go heavy, heavy personnel, extra tight ends, extra big bodies

763
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:06,160
Speaker 2: on the field. But they're doing that because they want you,

764
00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 2: the defense, to now match with heavy. Get your corner back,

765
00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:12,359
Speaker 2: get your safeties off the field, put some linebackers on

766
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:16,839
Speaker 2: because now you're heavy. We're heavy. Surprised we're passing at you,

767
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 2: even though you thought we were running you match to

768
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:22,480
Speaker 2: try to run you stacked in the box, were passing

769
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:25,360
Speaker 2: over top of you. And in the first ten games

770
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:28,280
Speaker 2: of the season, Seattle led the league in passing dvaway.

771
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 2: They were number one. Sam Donald's deep field numbers were

772
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:35,840
Speaker 2: just outrageous, like every metric was breaking. JSN was on

773
00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:38,840
Speaker 2: pace for over two thousand yards. Then they play the

774
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:41,839
Speaker 2: Rams in Week eleven, and the Rams said, you know what,

775
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:46,280
Speaker 2: we've studied your tendencies. We're onto you. You're going heavy,

776
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 2: but passing anyway, We're not falling for it. We're gonna

777
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:54,400
Speaker 2: match tendencies, not personnel. We're gonna stay in past coverage,

778
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:56,960
Speaker 2: even though you're trying to bait us to switch to

779
00:37:57,040 --> 00:38:01,399
Speaker 2: run coverage. And what happened Sam Donald's terrible. Darnold could

780
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 2: not pass against good pass coverage, and the zone especially

781
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 2: confused him. He's been much worse against zone in his

782
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 2: career since that Week eleven game. The rest of the season,

783
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:14,480
Speaker 2: Seattle went from first in passing DVA to twenty fifth,

784
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:19,120
Speaker 2: bottom quarter of the league. They plummeted because other teams

785
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:21,840
Speaker 2: saw that, and we're like, oh, we're just staying in

786
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:25,320
Speaker 2: pass all right, Bet we'll do that too, and they copycat.

787
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:28,359
Speaker 2: And now Seattle did go up and run twenty first

788
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:32,400
Speaker 2: to six. Guess why they're not running better. They're running

789
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:35,920
Speaker 2: in two pass coverage. You run better against pass coverage

790
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 2: because teams are like, oh, you're not gonna beat us

791
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:40,919
Speaker 2: that much. What you want to be run heavy, run

792
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:43,919
Speaker 2: heaviest in the league. Great, go for it. We'd much

793
00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:46,960
Speaker 2: rather that than have JSN beating us for one hundred

794
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 2: yards down the field every single game. So that's been

795
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 2: what's happening. The Rams, Chris Shula's defense are the team

796
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:55,719
Speaker 2: that kind of start the whole thing. So Rams on

797
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,879
Speaker 2: the season third by EPA per play against the run.

798
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 2: Even though they play a lot of light boxes, they're

799
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 2: staying light, they're staying in pass coverage. Seattle's not been

800
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:08,799
Speaker 2: good against light boxes, and we know they want to run.

801
00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 2: Know Zach Sharboney out for the season, Kenneth Walker is

802
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 2: really good, but there's nobody else there and Walker tends

803
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 2: to get nicked up a little bit. What happens if

804
00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:21,360
Speaker 2: he gets nicked up and misses, you know, a drive

805
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:24,799
Speaker 2: record or something in this game, maybe that ends up

806
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 2: working out a Seal has to pass a little bit

807
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 2: more when they don't want to. But I do think

808
00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:31,359
Speaker 2: so that the Rams they're going to be confident they

809
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:35,280
Speaker 2: can hold sales run game and check enough to let

810
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 2: their offense beat Seattle running the ball at them. I

811
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:41,880
Speaker 2: think two, the Rams are going to bring pressure. Seattle

812
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:44,440
Speaker 2: is bottom ten and pressure rate allowed. The Rams are

813
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:48,200
Speaker 2: top five and again Sam Darnold top five against man,

814
00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 2: below average against zone the Rams against Caleb Williams last

815
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:55,400
Speaker 2: week went like zone every single play for a long stretch.

816
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 2: They said, Hey, we know your tendency is Caleb, you

817
00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:02,319
Speaker 2: beat man, your bad against zone. Come at us. We're

818
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:04,080
Speaker 2: playing zone. See if you can do it. And Caleb

819
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:06,239
Speaker 2: hit some throws, but they got out of there with

820
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:09,760
Speaker 2: the win. Donald had six interceptions in the two Rams

821
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:13,479
Speaker 2: games this season. The Seahawks had, despite being the one seed,

822
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:16,720
Speaker 2: the second most giveaways of any team in the NFL

823
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 2: this year. If we get two three turnovers in this game,

824
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:22,880
Speaker 2: if we get that bad Donald game, that's it for Seattle.

825
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:25,240
Speaker 2: Like I think that's probably a rap on their season.

826
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:30,240
Speaker 2: But all that being said, you mentioned the Rams defense

827
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 2: hasn't been good for like two months now. Particularly the

828
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 2: cornerbacks are a serious weak link. They're leaking huge explosives.

829
00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:41,920
Speaker 2: So if Seattle can get the pass off, if they

830
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:45,279
Speaker 2: can attack downfield. Even as the offenses fall and their

831
00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:48,440
Speaker 2: explosives have not fallen off, and they've been one of

832
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 2: the league's best play action teams, the Rams have not

833
00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:54,920
Speaker 2: been good defending play actions. So when do the Seahawks

834
00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:58,319
Speaker 2: actually passed and can they pass on the Rams? Even

835
00:40:58,320 --> 00:41:00,800
Speaker 2: though the Rams are saying we know you're gonna pass.

836
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:03,840
Speaker 2: Can they still be passed on even that way? I

837
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:05,400
Speaker 2: don't know that we know the answer to that, but

838
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 2: I think it's kind of the key matchup on that side. Obviously,

839
00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 2: the other side of the ball is the more interesting

840
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 2: side Rams offense Seahawks defense. But on that side, what

841
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 2: is the Rams offense anymore? We don't really know how

842
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:20,239
Speaker 2: we leave that team is. They're not quite playing like

843
00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:23,240
Speaker 2: it with the stafford, the finger, the cold, the outside

844
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 2: numbers at whatever it is. It's not quite fund the same.

845
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:29,160
Speaker 2: And kind of a weird frustrating thing is the Rams

846
00:41:29,200 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 2: have run the ball so well this season, but we

847
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:34,440
Speaker 2: saw last week they were running all over the Bears.

848
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:36,839
Speaker 2: They just didn't do it very much, and they had

849
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:39,320
Speaker 2: drives where they'd run a bunch and move the ball

850
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 2: and then they try to pass install a little bit.

851
00:41:41,680 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 2: So will they run? Can they run? Seattle's run defense

852
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 2: it's been really good, But like the Rams, Seattle says,

853
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:51,719
Speaker 2: we're playing five six defensive backs on the field. We're

854
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:54,719
Speaker 2: gonna take away your passing. We talked about Denver number

855
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 2: one limiting explosives, Seattle's number two, so you're not gonna

856
00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:00,719
Speaker 2: just beat us in big plays on the field, you're

857
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:04,120
Speaker 2: gonna earn it, and Stafford and the Rams haven't really

858
00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 2: been earning it very well in the playoffs. They're not

859
00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:09,840
Speaker 2: doing well in these long, slow drives down the field.

860
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:14,400
Speaker 2: Seattle's good against play, action, against motion, all those McVeigh

861
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 2: cheat coods, all the stuff that he does. That's what

862
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:20,200
Speaker 2: Mike McDonald's defense is best at. That's why he's here

863
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:24,319
Speaker 2: for Seattle. I do think the Rams have clearly the

864
00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:28,520
Speaker 2: better offensive line in three games under Mike McDonald. Stafford

865
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:32,200
Speaker 2: has yet to be sacked against Seattle. Can Seattle actually

866
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 2: get home and sack them otherwise? If Stafford has time,

867
00:42:35,920 --> 00:42:39,359
Speaker 2: no defense can withstan Puka and DeVante and all those

868
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:42,400
Speaker 2: tight ends. If Stafford, you know, Austin will be the MVP,

869
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 2: can just kind of pick them apart back there. So

870
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:47,480
Speaker 2: to me, those are some of the matchup things I'm

871
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:49,239
Speaker 2: looking at. But at the end of the day, these

872
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:52,240
Speaker 2: are my two best teams. But I'm a little skeptical

873
00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:55,080
Speaker 2: about the Rams offense and the Rams defense and the

874
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:58,919
Speaker 2: Seahawks offense right now. So at the end of the day,

875
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:03,560
Speaker 2: I know Seattle defense is great. No skepticism there unmentioned

876
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:06,440
Speaker 2: Seattle special teams I think is a huge advantage in

877
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:09,840
Speaker 2: this game. Seattle led the league in starting field position

878
00:43:10,400 --> 00:43:12,239
Speaker 2: early in the year. The Rams were pretty good in

879
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:16,320
Speaker 2: that metric CARDI their kicker wasn't good at field goals,

880
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:18,279
Speaker 2: he was good at kickoffs, so they got rid of

881
00:43:18,360 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 2: him and brad in the thicker kicker. Well, now they

882
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 2: are good at field goals, but no longer had kickoffs.

883
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:27,040
Speaker 2: So watch under the numbers, watch the starting field position.

884
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:30,200
Speaker 2: Watch Seattle start like ten to fifteen yards further up

885
00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:33,280
Speaker 2: the field, over and over in this game. Those margins

886
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:35,960
Speaker 2: add up over the game. Talked about one season the

887
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:39,440
Speaker 2: conference championship twenty one and five straight up in the

888
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 2: last two decades, twenty four percent of the money line

889
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 2: five and one as anything under field goal favorite which,

890
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:47,720
Speaker 2: as we said, we're probably gonna get here with Seattle

891
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:53,479
Speaker 2: as well, division favorites. Conference championship undefeated five and zero

892
00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:55,799
Speaker 2: straight up by eleven points a game in the last

893
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:59,000
Speaker 2: two decades. And then we mentioned number one scoring offense,

894
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:02,319
Speaker 2: number one scoring defense in the conference championship or later,

895
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 2: the defense is seven to one in that matchup. Defenses

896
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 2: are beating these elite offenses with time to prep, and

897
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 2: in this case, Seattle's had like a month of prep

898
00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:15,319
Speaker 2: for this matchup, and they played them twice. They know

899
00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:18,960
Speaker 2: what's coming. One last stat Dome teams outdoors in the

900
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:22,000
Speaker 2: playoffs twenty thirty one and one ats thirty nine percent

901
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:24,440
Speaker 2: one in three this year. Of course that includes the

902
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 2: Rams zero two. And then I can't even believe this

903
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:30,799
Speaker 2: is a stat. Indoor teams on the road outdoors in

904
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:34,840
Speaker 2: the conference championship are oh and fifteen since the merger,

905
00:44:35,120 --> 00:44:39,200
Speaker 2: zero wins. It is unprecedented for an indoor team like

906
00:44:39,239 --> 00:44:42,720
Speaker 2: the Rams to go on the road in an outdoor situation.

907
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 2: The weather kind of looks fine compared to the rest

908
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:47,680
Speaker 2: of the country, if we're being honest. But to me,

909
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:51,360
Speaker 2: I got my Seattle seventy to one ticket before the season.

910
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:53,600
Speaker 2: I was the first Super Bowl bet. I don't have

911
00:44:53,600 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 2: any need to add on there, But I just I

912
00:44:56,680 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 2: think the Rams were the better team of the regular season.

913
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:01,560
Speaker 2: But in this matchup, in the spot with the edges

914
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:06,600
Speaker 2: outdoors rest the home team, I think special teams, it's

915
00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:08,680
Speaker 2: gonna be huge. I think that's gonna be three points,

916
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:11,399
Speaker 2: six points somewhere along the way. There's just too many

917
00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:14,160
Speaker 2: little edges for me to be confident betting the rams.

918
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:17,600
Speaker 2: My gut tells me Seattle's gonna find a way in

919
00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:19,920
Speaker 2: this game, So if I had to do it, I

920
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:22,880
Speaker 2: would probably do like a Seattle money line. I don't

921
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:25,480
Speaker 2: really see betting value either way on it, but it's

922
00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 2: a fun game to talk about. It's a fun game

923
00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 2: to watch. Do you have anything else on some of

924
00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:33,160
Speaker 2: the matchup stuff before we get into all my zillion props?

925
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 3: I mean, I have one thing on each of your props,

926
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 3: so we can kind of go back and forth there.

927
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:41,120
Speaker 3: I do think and this stat has been regurgitated in

928
00:45:41,160 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 3: other places, and honestly, I find it pretty predictive in

929
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:48,000
Speaker 3: terms of what we might see here. But I do

930
00:45:48,120 --> 00:45:50,239
Speaker 3: like the fact that when Mike McDonald of the last

931
00:45:50,239 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 3: two seasons faces a team for a second time or

932
00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:55,200
Speaker 3: later during the season, his team is seven to zero.

933
00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:57,359
Speaker 3: So the adjustments have been really good. Now that's all

934
00:45:57,400 --> 00:46:00,919
Speaker 3: adjustments to NFC West teams, and three of those seven

935
00:46:00,960 --> 00:46:02,960
Speaker 3: games have been won by five points or less, so

936
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 3: it's not always going to be easy, but his defense

937
00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:09,440
Speaker 3: always seems to find a way to come away with

938
00:46:09,480 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 3: these close games. But I do think it's interesting that

939
00:46:12,560 --> 00:46:14,840
Speaker 3: every time I give you a yang, I give you

940
00:46:14,880 --> 00:46:17,960
Speaker 3: a ying in the sense that like, okay, like we're

941
00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:20,359
Speaker 3: giving you all these reasons for Seattle, but I do

942
00:46:20,400 --> 00:46:23,720
Speaker 3: feel like the sharbone injury does take away a little

943
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:26,959
Speaker 3: bit of what they offer on offense, and it puts

944
00:46:27,000 --> 00:46:30,440
Speaker 3: a lot on Kenneth Walker when in reality, the like

945
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:33,640
Speaker 3: Korum and Kyron, like the ability to have two guys

946
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:36,719
Speaker 3: out there that maybe you value equally from a head

947
00:46:36,719 --> 00:46:39,160
Speaker 3: coach's standpoint, to be able to run the ball efficiently

948
00:46:39,680 --> 00:46:42,960
Speaker 3: is something that's major. So getting that, getting away from

949
00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:45,480
Speaker 3: that and having to rely on just Kenneth Walker and

950
00:46:45,560 --> 00:46:47,800
Speaker 3: you know, you talked about it, a quarter a drive

951
00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:50,399
Speaker 3: whatever it ends up being, where possible he gets nicked

952
00:46:50,440 --> 00:46:52,359
Speaker 3: up because he's taking a load of the carries. Here

953
00:46:52,960 --> 00:46:55,920
Speaker 3: is something noteworthy, which is why this game is going

954
00:46:55,960 --> 00:46:58,160
Speaker 3: to be so fascinating. All right, go with your props.

955
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:01,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, so we talked about Kenneth he's the guy running

956
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:04,360
Speaker 2: for Seattle. First prop is the guy catching for Seattle,

957
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:08,120
Speaker 2: and that's obviously Jackson Smith and Jigba. So Seattle number

958
00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:11,719
Speaker 2: one DVAA against swide receiver ones Pooka crushed them last

959
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:13,719
Speaker 2: time out when DeVante was out, but obviously that's a

960
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:17,520
Speaker 2: key matchup. I'm not playing Pooka, but I am playing Jaysn.

961
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:20,480
Speaker 2: The Rams are a blow league average against swide receiver one.

962
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:23,000
Speaker 2: Jayson has had in the two games against the Rams

963
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:25,920
Speaker 2: twenty five targets nine for one hundred and five months

964
00:47:26,120 --> 00:47:28,920
Speaker 2: eight for ninety six in the other one. Not huge lines,

965
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 2: but he's getting his he's eating out there. He's had

966
00:47:31,680 --> 00:47:34,239
Speaker 2: seven catches and more now twelve of eighteen games, so

967
00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:36,759
Speaker 2: two out of three on the season. And more importantly,

968
00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:39,840
Speaker 2: four of those six unders were in a game Seattle

969
00:47:39,880 --> 00:47:42,600
Speaker 2: won by twenty one points or more. Okay, so that's

970
00:47:42,640 --> 00:47:45,319
Speaker 2: not this game. In the other twelve games, he's had

971
00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:47,480
Speaker 2: seven catches and more ten of the twelve times, so

972
00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:49,920
Speaker 2: now in eighty three percent hit rate. This is not

973
00:47:50,080 --> 00:47:52,799
Speaker 2: me saying Jayson's gonna have a huge game. He's just

974
00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:55,120
Speaker 2: gonna be part of it. He's gonna be catching balls

975
00:47:55,120 --> 00:47:57,399
Speaker 2: and part of the script. It's not hard to see

976
00:47:57,400 --> 00:47:59,560
Speaker 2: the script for Jaysn. There. So over six and a

977
00:47:59,560 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 2: half catch which is minus one zh five. No escalators,

978
00:48:03,120 --> 00:48:05,840
Speaker 2: no crazy numbers on JSN. I just think that's a

979
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:06,799
Speaker 2: reception too low.

980
00:48:07,960 --> 00:48:10,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, those twenty five targets are just absurd in those

981
00:48:10,239 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 3: two games, which obviously tells to what McDonald's trying to

982
00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:15,000
Speaker 3: do on offense by going to him, And it goes

983
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:17,680
Speaker 3: also to what you were talking about when they're trying

984
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:20,359
Speaker 3: to show one formation and just say, heck with it,

985
00:48:20,480 --> 00:48:22,960
Speaker 3: we're going to throw the ball anyway. And the thing

986
00:48:23,080 --> 00:48:25,360
Speaker 3: is with those games, so the stat I had with

987
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:28,480
Speaker 3: six plus targets, he's over six receptions and fifteen of

988
00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:31,040
Speaker 3: his last twenty games in that spot. And when he

989
00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:33,880
Speaker 3: doesn't have the six targets, it's basically the forty nine

990
00:48:33,960 --> 00:48:37,319
Speaker 3: ers score last week. So that's the difference. If you

991
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:39,400
Speaker 3: think this is going to be a close game at all,

992
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:43,120
Speaker 3: those numbers definitely favor him to get looks. Especially I

993
00:48:43,200 --> 00:48:46,720
Speaker 3: noticed this it's about a sixty sixty five percent clip

994
00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:49,439
Speaker 3: in the second half. So even if he's got very

995
00:48:49,480 --> 00:48:52,040
Speaker 3: little early, I expect him to be peppered at some

996
00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:54,920
Speaker 3: point in this game. And also I think it'd be

997
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:57,239
Speaker 3: crazy not to assume that Cooper Cup is going to

998
00:48:57,320 --> 00:49:00,279
Speaker 3: get some love in this game against the Rams. A

999
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 3: bit of a revenge spot, which we've seen already, but

1000
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:05,239
Speaker 3: in this big of a situation, I think they will

1001
00:49:05,280 --> 00:49:07,840
Speaker 3: rely on him a tiny bit. And even though his

1002
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:11,759
Speaker 3: separation has been really, really bad, he is still Cooper Cup,

1003
00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:12,520
Speaker 3: which is interesting.

1004
00:49:13,520 --> 00:49:16,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, so let's go too rams Kyen Williams. We played

1005
00:49:16,760 --> 00:49:18,600
Speaker 2: him as a pass catcher last week. I'm going to

1006
00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:21,960
Speaker 2: go back to the wall here. Seattle allows the least

1007
00:49:22,160 --> 00:49:25,080
Speaker 2: running back points fantasy wise to running backs, but the

1008
00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:27,799
Speaker 2: most running back receptions. We've been playing that angle a

1009
00:49:27,800 --> 00:49:31,440
Speaker 2: lot this season, and that's Kyron Blake Krum eight catches

1010
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:33,319
Speaker 2: all year. That's not what he's out there to do.

1011
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:36,600
Speaker 2: Kyen has really gone up as a receiver lately. First

1012
00:49:36,640 --> 00:49:40,319
Speaker 2: fourteen games one point nine catches fifteen yards a game.

1013
00:49:40,640 --> 00:49:43,399
Speaker 2: In the five games since three catches for twenty four

1014
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:46,400
Speaker 2: that's an extra fifty percent on his catches three or

1015
00:49:46,400 --> 00:49:49,200
Speaker 2: more in four of those last five games. And you

1016
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:52,560
Speaker 2: see it in Seattle. First game was before that one

1017
00:49:52,640 --> 00:49:55,200
Speaker 2: catch for five yards from Kyroen. Two targets. In the

1018
00:49:55,239 --> 00:49:58,480
Speaker 2: other game three catches for fifteen It's not huge, but

1019
00:49:58,640 --> 00:50:01,160
Speaker 2: six targets. You can see he's getting the more volume.

1020
00:50:01,520 --> 00:50:04,319
Speaker 2: In those first fourteen games, he had zero to two

1021
00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:07,320
Speaker 2: targets all but two of the games. Lately, the targets

1022
00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:08,960
Speaker 2: are up. I think the receptions are up as well.

1023
00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:11,759
Speaker 2: So I started at two and a half catches. That's

1024
00:50:11,960 --> 00:50:14,239
Speaker 2: like a plus one fifty number. But I noticed this,

1025
00:50:14,760 --> 00:50:17,880
Speaker 2: every time Kyron has at least three catches, he also

1026
00:50:18,040 --> 00:50:21,239
Speaker 2: has at least fifteen yards receiving. That's six games he's

1027
00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:23,720
Speaker 2: done that. But I noticed when he has two catches,

1028
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:26,080
Speaker 2: he still has at least eleven yards all those games,

1029
00:50:26,120 --> 00:50:28,560
Speaker 2: and the regular line for Kyron is just eleven and

1030
00:50:28,600 --> 00:50:31,040
Speaker 2: a half receiving yards. So I'm gonna actually play a

1031
00:50:31,040 --> 00:50:33,680
Speaker 2: little less aggressive here for once and just take the

1032
00:50:33,719 --> 00:50:37,440
Speaker 2: receiving yards line minus one twelve over eleven and a half.

1033
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:40,120
Speaker 2: It's just the standard line, and I think he can

1034
00:50:40,200 --> 00:50:42,560
Speaker 2: hit that one with only two catches, or obviously even

1035
00:50:42,600 --> 00:50:45,000
Speaker 2: this one good one. But I think that actually gives

1036
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:47,600
Speaker 2: us a little more cushion. I don't mind more cushion

1037
00:50:47,600 --> 00:50:50,359
Speaker 2: against Cole's defense. They're pretty good. I like to get

1038
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:52,080
Speaker 2: a couple of wins here, so we'll play the more

1039
00:50:52,080 --> 00:50:54,839
Speaker 2: conservative route, and then if he does get a couple

1040
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:58,120
Speaker 2: catches or hit a long one slight escalator, thirty yards

1041
00:50:58,160 --> 00:51:00,640
Speaker 2: are more at plus four to twenty five. He's hit

1042
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:02,759
Speaker 2: that in half of his games with three catches, so

1043
00:51:03,560 --> 00:51:06,040
Speaker 2: three of the six and Seattle's allowed that eight times

1044
00:51:06,080 --> 00:51:08,960
Speaker 2: already thirty yards to a receiving running back on the season.

1045
00:51:09,320 --> 00:51:12,360
Speaker 2: So Karen Williams not huge. Just give me the twelve

1046
00:51:12,440 --> 00:51:14,280
Speaker 2: yards receiving and a shot at the thirty.

1047
00:51:15,040 --> 00:51:17,719
Speaker 3: Yeah. The crazy thing I looked at was, now, I'm

1048
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:20,200
Speaker 3: just giving them the loss because of being an underdog,

1049
00:51:20,239 --> 00:51:22,120
Speaker 3: and I feel like it's a better spot to look at.

1050
00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:25,960
Speaker 3: But when they've lost against the NFC West, his targets

1051
00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:29,640
Speaker 3: are six, ten, five, and ten in their last four games,

1052
00:51:29,640 --> 00:51:32,359
Speaker 3: which are receptions of three, eight, four, and six. So

1053
00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:35,719
Speaker 3: to me, if this game is close at all, he

1054
00:51:35,880 --> 00:51:38,279
Speaker 3: is someone that way more than Blake KRM. It's going

1055
00:51:38,320 --> 00:51:40,279
Speaker 3: to see work in the pass game. And you had

1056
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:43,200
Speaker 3: mentioned it Seattle six month receiving yards per game to

1057
00:51:43,280 --> 00:51:46,799
Speaker 3: running backs six worse in DVOA, Like that is an

1058
00:51:46,840 --> 00:51:49,960
Speaker 3: opportunity for the Rams in this one, especially if they're

1059
00:51:49,960 --> 00:51:52,200
Speaker 3: going to start showing some of that thirteenth personnel we'll

1060
00:51:52,200 --> 00:51:55,560
Speaker 3: talk about in a second. And to me, the interesting

1061
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:57,560
Speaker 3: thing is, I think a game or two ago they're

1062
00:51:57,560 --> 00:52:01,520
Speaker 3: talking about like thirty plus targets to Pook and DeVante.

1063
00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:04,960
Speaker 3: This is another way to attack down field, especially a

1064
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:08,400
Speaker 3: little bit surprising in the McDonald defense. So Kiro receiving

1065
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:10,640
Speaker 3: is something that should happen in this game.

1066
00:52:11,000 --> 00:52:13,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. All right, let's talk about that thirteen personnel.

1067
00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:16,520
Speaker 2: You know, we love that. We've been betting these Rams

1068
00:52:16,520 --> 00:52:20,000
Speaker 2: tight ends a lot all season. So first game we

1069
00:52:20,040 --> 00:52:23,960
Speaker 2: went with the Terrence Ferguson reception or longest catch escalator

1070
00:52:24,239 --> 00:52:26,160
Speaker 2: and then he like beer Leaving, got on the field.

1071
00:52:26,200 --> 00:52:29,399
Speaker 2: Total Boston our play in that Seattle game. But look

1072
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:32,120
Speaker 2: at the script. So first game, Seattle comes out or

1073
00:52:32,160 --> 00:52:34,040
Speaker 2: the Rams come out, have you thirteen personnel in the

1074
00:52:34,080 --> 00:52:35,600
Speaker 2: first quarter, and then they kind of went away from

1075
00:52:35,640 --> 00:52:36,920
Speaker 2: at the rest of the game. They didn't use it

1076
00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:40,000
Speaker 2: a lot. In the second game, they used it sixty

1077
00:52:40,040 --> 00:52:43,120
Speaker 2: two percent of their snaps for thirteen personnel. Remember, thirteen

1078
00:52:43,200 --> 00:52:45,759
Speaker 2: means one running back, three tight ends, so they're going

1079
00:52:45,800 --> 00:52:48,239
Speaker 2: heavy with all those tight ends and really are even

1080
00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:50,640
Speaker 2: lining up like Puka and some of the receivers kind

1081
00:52:50,640 --> 00:52:52,840
Speaker 2: of as a tight end type play as well. So

1082
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 2: that's still over half their seasons against Seattle on the season,

1083
00:52:56,719 --> 00:52:58,920
Speaker 2: and or half of their snaps on the season. And

1084
00:52:59,000 --> 00:53:01,919
Speaker 2: I sort of feel like those numbers tell us maybe

1085
00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:04,880
Speaker 2: McVeigh was siving this. That was the big matchup they wanted.

1086
00:53:04,880 --> 00:53:07,520
Speaker 2: That second game, it was working. They just kind of

1087
00:53:07,520 --> 00:53:09,480
Speaker 2: screwed around and gave the game away at the end.

1088
00:53:09,960 --> 00:53:13,279
Speaker 2: But then last week you go to Chicago and you

1089
00:53:13,360 --> 00:53:16,480
Speaker 2: have this cold, awful game in the weather, don't you

1090
00:53:16,520 --> 00:53:18,919
Speaker 2: just want to go heavy and run the ball. No,

1091
00:53:19,080 --> 00:53:22,040
Speaker 2: only nine percent of the snaps in thirteen personnel last week.

1092
00:53:22,040 --> 00:53:24,480
Speaker 2: They didn't really use the big thing we've been talking about.

1093
00:53:24,840 --> 00:53:28,840
Speaker 2: And curiously, I don't really know why. Tyler Higbee, the

1094
00:53:28,840 --> 00:53:30,920
Speaker 2: guy that's finally healthy and supposed to be tight end

1095
00:53:30,960 --> 00:53:34,279
Speaker 2: to one eight snaps. Last week he was tight end four.

1096
00:53:34,440 --> 00:53:36,120
Speaker 2: He was fourth on the depth chart as far as

1097
00:53:36,120 --> 00:53:39,920
Speaker 2: snaps went. So the one guy who's getting snaps this

1098
00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:43,160
Speaker 2: season consistently for the Rams, regardless of all the tight

1099
00:53:43,239 --> 00:53:46,880
Speaker 2: end snaps Colby Parkinson. Parkinson has been the guy. He

1100
00:53:46,960 --> 00:53:51,000
Speaker 2: caught the touchdown winner against Carolina. He almost got another

1101
00:53:51,040 --> 00:53:53,479
Speaker 2: one against Chicago. Stafford tried him on almost the same

1102
00:53:53,480 --> 00:53:56,000
Speaker 2: play late in that game. He's been the tight end

1103
00:53:56,239 --> 00:53:59,880
Speaker 2: touchdown guy. He now has nine touchdowns the last eleven

1104
00:54:00,160 --> 00:54:04,080
Speaker 2: games for the Rams, including one against Seattle kind of

1105
00:54:04,160 --> 00:54:06,719
Speaker 2: He's become DeVante Adams for them in some ways. The

1106
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:10,920
Speaker 2: number of touchdowns he's putting up Seattle's tight ends. Seattle's

1107
00:54:10,920 --> 00:54:13,360
Speaker 2: allowed top ten most tight end points fantasy wise, on

1108
00:54:13,480 --> 00:54:16,840
Speaker 2: top five most receptions on the season. Parkinson, to me,

1109
00:54:17,320 --> 00:54:20,600
Speaker 2: has estabished himself as a clear touchdown threat. Game after game.

1110
00:54:20,920 --> 00:54:24,120
Speaker 2: We're getting plus four to twenty five on the touchdown nods,

1111
00:54:24,120 --> 00:54:26,160
Speaker 2: and we should get some points in this game. The

1112
00:54:26,239 --> 00:54:27,919
Speaker 2: Rams are gonna find the end zone a little bit.

1113
00:54:28,280 --> 00:54:30,839
Speaker 2: That's just way too long to me, even though he's

1114
00:54:30,880 --> 00:54:32,960
Speaker 2: not my favorite tight end to bet in this one,

1115
00:54:33,120 --> 00:54:35,440
Speaker 2: but give me Parkinson plus four to twenty five to

1116
00:54:35,480 --> 00:54:36,200
Speaker 2: start out here.

1117
00:54:37,480 --> 00:54:39,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm a big Kolby fan, especially when you look

1118
00:54:39,880 --> 00:54:43,400
Speaker 3: inside the numbers. Two plus receptions thirteen straight games, twenty

1119
00:54:43,440 --> 00:54:46,239
Speaker 3: plus receiving yards nine straight games, and looking at the

1120
00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:50,440
Speaker 3: Seattle side of the ball, twenty ninth against you on

1121
00:54:50,520 --> 00:54:53,680
Speaker 3: the receptions and twenty seventh against receiving yards. So that

1122
00:54:53,960 --> 00:54:56,040
Speaker 3: is a fall on the defense that can be beat.

1123
00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:58,759
Speaker 3: And then you look at week sixteen, you look at

1124
00:54:58,840 --> 00:55:04,120
Speaker 3: routes run Ferguson thirty six, Kobe Parkinson thirty six, both

1125
00:55:04,239 --> 00:55:06,800
Speaker 3: second to Puka, So there's going to be a plenty

1126
00:55:06,840 --> 00:55:09,680
Speaker 3: of opportunities. I kind of like the receptions receiving mark

1127
00:55:09,760 --> 00:55:12,279
Speaker 3: like obviously touchdown show a lot of value. But I

1128
00:55:12,280 --> 00:55:13,920
Speaker 3: think Kolby's going to be a large part of it.

1129
00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:16,440
Speaker 3: Even with Higbee back in this game. I feel like

1130
00:55:16,480 --> 00:55:20,080
Speaker 3: he is too good of a catcher and too big

1131
00:55:20,120 --> 00:55:22,080
Speaker 3: of a target not to be in this game. So

1132
00:55:22,400 --> 00:55:23,520
Speaker 3: that's the way I look at it.

1133
00:55:24,000 --> 00:55:26,200
Speaker 2: I agree, and I think on top of that, our

1134
00:55:26,239 --> 00:55:29,239
Speaker 2: guy Terrence Ferguson owes us the longest catch from that

1135
00:55:29,360 --> 00:55:31,440
Speaker 2: last game. We've bet it. We're going back to the well.

1136
00:55:31,960 --> 00:55:35,160
Speaker 2: Never wrong, just early. So I didn't play Ferguson in

1137
00:55:35,239 --> 00:55:38,920
Speaker 2: Game two against Seattle. What's he do? Three catches, thirty

1138
00:55:38,920 --> 00:55:41,919
Speaker 2: three yards and a touchdown. Three catches is a career

1139
00:55:41,960 --> 00:55:44,000
Speaker 2: high for him. He had a twenty seven yard catch.

1140
00:55:44,040 --> 00:55:46,720
Speaker 2: Four targets, that's the thing we thought we were getting

1141
00:55:46,719 --> 00:55:48,600
Speaker 2: in the first game and then he barely been got

1142
00:55:48,640 --> 00:55:51,279
Speaker 2: on the field. He has now had four targets are

1143
00:55:51,320 --> 00:55:54,959
Speaker 2: more three straight games, and his snaps are there. He's

1144
00:55:54,960 --> 00:55:57,160
Speaker 2: been up to about two thirds of the RAMS snap

1145
00:55:57,200 --> 00:56:00,720
Speaker 2: since it started December, game to game and four targets

1146
00:56:01,080 --> 00:56:04,680
Speaker 2: is key because he's only catching forty percent of his

1147
00:56:04,719 --> 00:56:07,480
Speaker 2: targets this year. That's partly because his targets are all deep.

1148
00:56:07,880 --> 00:56:10,000
Speaker 2: Seventy percent of his thirty targets on the season are

1149
00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:13,040
Speaker 2: classified as deep balls this year. That's what they're using for.

1150
00:56:13,440 --> 00:56:15,880
Speaker 2: It's kind of a receiving role from the tight end

1151
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:20,239
Speaker 2: attacking downfield. So four targets are more is important because

1152
00:56:20,239 --> 00:56:22,560
Speaker 2: we're probably only going to get one or two catches here.

1153
00:56:22,920 --> 00:56:26,480
Speaker 2: We needed to count for running it back over on

1154
00:56:26,520 --> 00:56:31,000
Speaker 2: the longest reception Terrence Ferguson an absurd line. It's listed

1155
00:56:31,000 --> 00:56:33,560
Speaker 2: at ten and a half yards. Okay, let's talk about

1156
00:56:33,600 --> 00:56:37,160
Speaker 2: Ferguson's catches. He's had twelve catches in his career. Three

1157
00:56:37,560 --> 00:56:40,680
Speaker 2: out of every four catches he's had are eighteen yards

1158
00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:43,359
Speaker 2: or more. What are we doing putting this line at

1159
00:56:43,400 --> 00:56:45,719
Speaker 2: ten and a half. He's had a catch in eight

1160
00:56:45,760 --> 00:56:50,040
Speaker 2: games this season, he's ad nineteen yards or longer longest

1161
00:56:50,040 --> 00:56:53,040
Speaker 2: catch all but one of those. Only one game this

1162
00:56:53,120 --> 00:56:55,640
Speaker 2: year did he catch a ball but not hit the

1163
00:56:55,719 --> 00:56:58,799
Speaker 2: over On this line, half of his career catches are

1164
00:56:58,800 --> 00:57:01,960
Speaker 2: twenty seven yards are more, so we're playing the ten

1165
00:57:02,000 --> 00:57:04,600
Speaker 2: and a half over longest reception and we gotta do

1166
00:57:04,719 --> 00:57:09,280
Speaker 2: the receiving escalator. He owes this on twenty yards longest

1167
00:57:09,280 --> 00:57:12,040
Speaker 2: catch at plus two fifty six at DraftKings, no brainer.

1168
00:57:12,440 --> 00:57:14,960
Speaker 2: That is all but one game that he's had this

1169
00:57:15,040 --> 00:57:17,320
Speaker 2: season with a catch. He's ad a nineteen or more.

1170
00:57:17,360 --> 00:57:20,040
Speaker 2: We need twenty or more, twenty five yards or more

1171
00:57:20,080 --> 00:57:23,360
Speaker 2: plus four or fifty five. He's done that in five

1172
00:57:23,400 --> 00:57:25,840
Speaker 2: of six games when he had at least three targets.

1173
00:57:25,840 --> 00:57:29,440
Speaker 2: So hopefully we get some real snaps and targets. We're

1174
00:57:29,520 --> 00:57:32,480
Speaker 2: running back our longest catch and I had to play

1175
00:57:32,480 --> 00:57:35,280
Speaker 2: the touchdown here as well for ferguson plus seven to fifty.

1176
00:57:35,800 --> 00:57:38,240
Speaker 2: I don't think of him as a huge scoring touchdown threat,

1177
00:57:38,320 --> 00:57:40,880
Speaker 2: kind of like Parkinson is more so. But he's scored

1178
00:57:40,880 --> 00:57:42,480
Speaker 2: two of the last three games now, one of those

1179
00:57:42,560 --> 00:57:46,080
Speaker 2: was against Seattle. And if you go back Stafford's last

1180
00:57:46,120 --> 00:57:49,560
Speaker 2: fourteen touchdowns, eight of them have been tight ends. That's

1181
00:57:49,600 --> 00:57:52,360
Speaker 2: over half of his touchdowns going to tight ends. So

1182
00:57:52,400 --> 00:57:55,000
Speaker 2: I'm playing this with Perkinson. We're basically getting what I

1183
00:57:55,080 --> 00:57:58,160
Speaker 2: hope are both top tight ends, and they're getting like

1184
00:57:58,200 --> 00:58:00,360
Speaker 2: two or three tight end touchdowns some of these games.

1185
00:58:00,600 --> 00:58:02,880
Speaker 2: We're getting them both together at four fifty and seven

1186
00:58:02,880 --> 00:58:04,800
Speaker 2: to fifty. I think those are just way too long.

1187
00:58:05,240 --> 00:58:08,720
Speaker 2: Terrence Ferguson, My guy, nobody has been supporting you like

1188
00:58:08,800 --> 00:58:11,320
Speaker 2: me on this podcast. Go give us some good tests.

1189
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:15,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, so last week I tracked picking the app for

1190
00:58:15,200 --> 00:58:17,280
Speaker 3: the Rams to score a rushing touchdown in the game

1191
00:58:17,280 --> 00:58:20,400
Speaker 3: from their running backs. That happened in this game. I

1192
00:58:20,440 --> 00:58:23,680
Speaker 3: want DraftKings to post a prop on will there be

1193
00:58:23,720 --> 00:58:26,320
Speaker 3: a tight end touchdown? Like, I don't want to be choosing.

1194
00:58:26,440 --> 00:58:28,840
Speaker 3: Just give me something like minus what plus one plus

1195
00:58:28,840 --> 00:58:34,760
Speaker 3: one ten plus something plus odds combine them all Higbee, Parkinson, Ferguson,

1196
00:58:34,880 --> 00:58:37,440
Speaker 3: Davis Allen. I don't want to choose. I just I

1197
00:58:37,520 --> 00:58:39,200
Speaker 3: want to bet that they're going to go there. And

1198
00:58:39,240 --> 00:58:41,320
Speaker 3: Stafford loves his tight ends in the red zone, so

1199
00:58:41,680 --> 00:58:43,920
Speaker 3: that would be the bet. I'm looking at Terrence Ferguson,

1200
00:58:44,120 --> 00:58:46,600
Speaker 3: he is just too hot and cold for me, Like, yeah,

1201
00:58:46,680 --> 00:58:50,000
Speaker 3: those odds plus seven to fifty is honestly really crazy,

1202
00:58:50,560 --> 00:58:53,160
Speaker 3: especially given the situation. But just give me a tight

1203
00:58:53,280 --> 00:58:54,920
Speaker 3: end touchdown? All right? What's your last problem?

1204
00:58:55,160 --> 00:58:56,960
Speaker 2: All right? I think the most funding and beat this

1205
00:58:57,000 --> 00:58:59,880
Speaker 2: weekend is on Rashid Shihit. We saw in the last

1206
00:59:00,360 --> 00:59:02,920
Speaker 2: opening play of the game, Rashichi Heed takes the kickoff

1207
00:59:02,920 --> 00:59:06,000
Speaker 2: all the way for touchdown. Here's my Rashichi Heed bet

1208
00:59:06,200 --> 00:59:09,680
Speaker 2: over half of a rushing yard. I just need one

1209
00:59:09,760 --> 00:59:12,760
Speaker 2: yard from Rashichi head. So here's the case. He ran

1210
00:59:12,880 --> 00:59:16,720
Speaker 2: last week twice for twenty seven yards, and they're using

1211
00:59:16,800 --> 00:59:18,520
Speaker 2: him now. I think a little bit more, kind of

1212
00:59:18,560 --> 00:59:21,840
Speaker 2: like Percy Harvin with the Saints, he was a volume guy.

1213
00:59:21,920 --> 00:59:24,560
Speaker 2: With the Seahawks, he's not used that way. But he

1214
00:59:24,640 --> 00:59:27,400
Speaker 2: now has nine runs and ten games with Seattle, including

1215
00:59:27,760 --> 00:59:30,080
Speaker 2: he had to run both Rams games, one of them

1216
00:59:30,080 --> 00:59:33,080
Speaker 2: for thirty one yards, and he's had at least a

1217
00:59:33,160 --> 00:59:36,280
Speaker 2: rushing yard six of ten games with the Seahawks now,

1218
00:59:36,600 --> 00:59:39,880
Speaker 2: so we only really need one run or a backwards

1219
00:59:39,920 --> 00:59:42,120
Speaker 2: pass like a little screen over the side. Give us

1220
00:59:42,280 --> 00:59:45,480
Speaker 2: the lateral pass, not the run. We'll take whatever and get.

1221
00:59:45,880 --> 00:59:48,480
Speaker 2: The Rams have allowed a wide receiver to run for

1222
00:59:48,480 --> 00:59:50,840
Speaker 2: at least a yard nine of nineteen games, about half

1223
00:59:50,840 --> 00:59:54,600
Speaker 2: of them, including three times against the Seahawks. Shaheed hit

1224
00:59:54,640 --> 00:59:58,200
Speaker 2: this crop both games against the Rams already for the Seahawks,

1225
00:59:58,240 --> 01:00:00,520
Speaker 2: so I think he gets a run for half a

1226
01:00:00,600 --> 01:00:02,480
Speaker 2: rushing yard, and you know we got to play some

1227
01:00:02,520 --> 01:00:05,280
Speaker 2: alts because that dude is fast. If he gets a yard,

1228
01:00:05,320 --> 01:00:09,400
Speaker 2: he might get fifteen twenty thirty yards. So twenty yards

1229
01:00:09,480 --> 01:00:13,800
Speaker 2: rushing plus eight hundred thirty yards rushing plus fifteen hundred

1230
01:00:13,760 --> 01:00:16,040
Speaker 2: that's not longest rushed. I w on both. If he

1231
01:00:16,080 --> 01:00:18,720
Speaker 2: gets a couple of runs, this is just rushing yards total.

1232
01:00:18,920 --> 01:00:21,080
Speaker 2: He had a thirty yard run last week. He had

1233
01:00:21,080 --> 01:00:23,840
Speaker 2: a thirty one against the Rams. Already you're looking for

1234
01:00:24,120 --> 01:00:28,440
Speaker 2: probably one play the entire game that McDonald's staff are

1235
01:00:28,480 --> 01:00:31,920
Speaker 2: setting up for one shot to give Rashi Shiheed like

1236
01:00:31,960 --> 01:00:34,720
Speaker 2: a punt return in a regular game as a run.

1237
01:00:35,080 --> 01:00:37,960
Speaker 2: You go one play, make account Rashi Shiheed. We're watching

1238
01:00:37,960 --> 01:00:41,480
Speaker 2: Shaheed and Ferguson for one play. Go get some yards, buddy.

1239
01:00:41,800 --> 01:00:44,120
Speaker 3: And also you didn't even mention it, but no charbonnet

1240
01:00:44,760 --> 01:00:48,280
Speaker 3: obviously creates a bigger opportunity for someone in the backfield.

1241
01:00:48,560 --> 01:00:50,959
Speaker 3: And the thing you gotta love Divisional round last week

1242
01:00:51,120 --> 01:00:53,320
Speaker 3: nine steps at running back. Then you look at the

1243
01:00:53,320 --> 01:00:56,920
Speaker 3: two games against the Rams, seventeen total snaps at running

1244
01:00:56,920 --> 01:00:59,800
Speaker 3: back for Shaheed, So obviously there is a change in

1245
01:01:00,080 --> 01:01:02,720
Speaker 3: focus once he got traded there on exactly what he

1246
01:01:02,760 --> 01:01:04,520
Speaker 3: can do. I don't want to call him a gadget

1247
01:01:04,560 --> 01:01:06,680
Speaker 3: guy because I think it under sells it. But that's

1248
01:01:06,760 --> 01:01:09,120
Speaker 3: exactly how they're figuring out what to do. Like, Okay,

1249
01:01:09,120 --> 01:01:12,040
Speaker 3: we've got our offense, we've got our receivers in place, Like,

1250
01:01:12,160 --> 01:01:14,000
Speaker 3: let's figure out how to get the fastest guy on

1251
01:01:14,040 --> 01:01:17,320
Speaker 3: the field the ball. So I love the look. All right,

1252
01:01:17,800 --> 01:01:20,840
Speaker 3: here we go super Bowl look ahead now. So obviously

1253
01:01:20,880 --> 01:01:23,320
Speaker 3: you're looking at the four teams, whatever the matchup is.

1254
01:01:23,480 --> 01:01:25,800
Speaker 3: If it doesn't happen, enjoy, get your money back. But

1255
01:01:25,840 --> 01:01:29,760
Speaker 3: what are you doing? Let's talk ahead, skim a shot?

1256
01:01:29,800 --> 01:01:34,800
Speaker 3: How about next week? I got my mind set. I

1257
01:01:35,000 --> 01:01:36,280
Speaker 3: got my mind set.

1258
01:01:37,960 --> 01:01:39,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I have two bets here. One of them

1259
01:01:39,880 --> 01:01:41,720
Speaker 2: is an enjoy get your money back. The other one

1260
01:01:41,800 --> 01:01:44,080
Speaker 2: is not. But i'll explain. So on the high rates

1261
01:01:44,120 --> 01:01:46,800
Speaker 2: took NFC minus two twenty. He kind of led with

1262
01:01:46,840 --> 01:01:49,240
Speaker 2: that off the top. Both teams right now are like

1263
01:01:49,280 --> 01:01:52,040
Speaker 2: eight and a half nine point favorites against Denver. So obviously,

1264
01:01:52,360 --> 01:01:54,080
Speaker 2: if you get the money line, you want the NFC

1265
01:01:54,160 --> 01:01:56,280
Speaker 2: team against Denver. It's more like a field goal against

1266
01:01:56,280 --> 01:02:00,360
Speaker 2: the Patriots at one at DraftKings Rams are currently minus

1267
01:02:00,360 --> 01:02:02,720
Speaker 2: three against the Patriots. I gotta do it. We're not

1268
01:02:02,760 --> 01:02:05,240
Speaker 2: getting Rams blow a key number against the Patriots. There's

1269
01:02:05,280 --> 01:02:07,240
Speaker 2: just no way. The Rams have been so much better

1270
01:02:07,720 --> 01:02:11,160
Speaker 2: than the field. And so Seattle is three and a half.

1271
01:02:11,880 --> 01:02:14,120
Speaker 2: You said earlier you have cl slightly had the Rams.

1272
01:02:14,320 --> 01:02:16,000
Speaker 2: I can't get there. I would have the Rams slightly

1273
01:02:16,080 --> 01:02:18,240
Speaker 2: had so to me, Seattle above the key number. But

1274
01:02:18,280 --> 01:02:20,240
Speaker 2: the Rams at the key that makes no sense to me.

1275
01:02:20,680 --> 01:02:22,640
Speaker 2: I make it like Rams five five and a half

1276
01:02:22,680 --> 01:02:25,160
Speaker 2: at least on the neutral. I like your pass rush

1277
01:02:25,200 --> 01:02:28,480
Speaker 2: against the Patriots offensive line, like we talked about earlier. Obviously,

1278
01:02:28,520 --> 01:02:31,160
Speaker 2: the Rams have a far better weapons than the Patriots.

1279
01:02:31,320 --> 01:02:34,280
Speaker 2: That's been the whole MVP conversation the entire year. I

1280
01:02:34,280 --> 01:02:37,240
Speaker 2: think the winner. We know the stat in the Super Bowl.

1281
01:02:37,280 --> 01:02:40,080
Speaker 2: The winner covers like pretty much every single time. If

1282
01:02:40,080 --> 01:02:42,040
Speaker 2: you're gonna like the Rams, you're gonna like them at

1283
01:02:42,040 --> 01:02:45,080
Speaker 2: minus three. I don't want to get that number for long.

1284
01:02:45,200 --> 01:02:48,800
Speaker 2: So minus three Rams Patriots, and then the one I

1285
01:02:48,840 --> 01:02:50,640
Speaker 2: like a little better. We did Super Bowl MVPs at

1286
01:02:50,640 --> 01:02:52,960
Speaker 2: the start of the playoffs. I still think you about

1287
01:02:53,000 --> 01:02:56,200
Speaker 2: this right now, Jasn and pukin a two, I'm gonna

1288
01:02:56,200 --> 01:02:58,720
Speaker 2: bet both of them. Myth and Jagba at fifteen to

1289
01:02:58,720 --> 01:03:02,120
Speaker 2: one and Pook who has seventeen to one. And here's

1290
01:03:02,160 --> 01:03:06,000
Speaker 2: the key. We're probably getting one of those guys against

1291
01:03:06,040 --> 01:03:09,680
Speaker 2: the Patriots. And the Patriots ran dead last by DVA

1292
01:03:09,680 --> 01:03:12,120
Speaker 2: against wide receiver one on the season. Now, they didn't

1293
01:03:12,120 --> 01:03:15,040
Speaker 2: face too many because the Patriots got luck against their schedule.

1294
01:03:15,040 --> 01:03:16,760
Speaker 2: I don't know if you're heard, but that's been the

1295
01:03:16,800 --> 01:03:19,720
Speaker 2: story all year. They had to face Nego Collins. Last week,

1296
01:03:19,760 --> 01:03:21,480
Speaker 2: they have to face Damar Chase. He was out when

1297
01:03:21,480 --> 01:03:24,480
Speaker 2: they played them. Who they did face was Brake London.

1298
01:03:24,480 --> 01:03:27,160
Speaker 2: That's probably the best receiver. They faced. Nine catches, one

1299
01:03:27,240 --> 01:03:29,600
Speaker 2: hundred and eighteen yards and three touchdowns against them in

1300
01:03:29,640 --> 01:03:32,400
Speaker 2: that game. They faced Tyreek kill one hundred and nine

1301
01:03:32,480 --> 01:03:35,920
Speaker 2: yards on six catches that game. I found seven wide

1302
01:03:35,920 --> 01:03:39,240
Speaker 2: receiver ones, true good wide receiver ones. They average about

1303
01:03:39,240 --> 01:03:41,960
Speaker 2: seven catches for one hundred and four yards. So that's

1304
01:03:41,960 --> 01:03:43,480
Speaker 2: the sort of line we're gonna need if we want

1305
01:03:43,480 --> 01:03:47,720
Speaker 2: a SUPERWL MVP. Is volume moving the chains, six seven, eight,

1306
01:03:47,880 --> 01:03:51,040
Speaker 2: nine catches. That's the sort of profile. Both Face and

1307
01:03:51,160 --> 01:03:54,640
Speaker 2: Puka have met them. Both now one of them is

1308
01:03:54,680 --> 01:03:56,960
Speaker 2: gonna be dead ticket by the end of Sunday Night.

1309
01:03:57,000 --> 01:03:59,640
Speaker 2: But the other one you're sitting on fifteen seventeen to

1310
01:03:59,760 --> 01:04:03,120
Speaker 2: one on the best weapon on the favorite in the

1311
01:04:03,120 --> 01:04:05,560
Speaker 2: super Bowl. You're going to like that that basically we're

1312
01:04:05,560 --> 01:04:08,120
Speaker 2: getting like a six percent implied here, And in the

1313
01:04:08,160 --> 01:04:12,040
Speaker 2: last sixteen MVPs, three of them in the Super Bowl

1314
01:04:12,040 --> 01:04:14,520
Speaker 2: have been receivers. We are trending that direction. We got

1315
01:04:14,520 --> 01:04:18,160
Speaker 2: a Rams MVP and a Patriots MVP. So these teams playing,

1316
01:04:18,160 --> 01:04:21,280
Speaker 2: I've seen that in the Super Bowl. I bet jays

1317
01:04:21,440 --> 01:04:24,760
Speaker 2: and Pooka before the playoffs started at longer numbers, but

1318
01:04:24,880 --> 01:04:26,480
Speaker 2: now they're here. One of them is going to be

1319
01:04:26,520 --> 01:04:28,880
Speaker 2: in the game, and I'm guessing that's probably gonna be

1320
01:04:28,920 --> 01:04:31,200
Speaker 2: my favorite Super Bowl MVP bet next time we're on

1321
01:04:31,600 --> 01:04:33,800
Speaker 2: talking again, So why not just get it now at

1322
01:04:33,840 --> 01:04:34,520
Speaker 2: a better number.

1323
01:04:35,480 --> 01:04:37,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you're right there, because I'd be curious

1324
01:04:37,560 --> 01:04:41,160
Speaker 3: what either of those players would even open at when

1325
01:04:41,240 --> 01:04:43,840
Speaker 3: they're actually physically in the game. And I think you're

1326
01:04:43,880 --> 01:04:46,200
Speaker 3: going to get in that. I'm taking a guess here

1327
01:04:46,280 --> 01:04:49,640
Speaker 3: eight to one range, like they're going to be maybe

1328
01:04:49,680 --> 01:04:54,320
Speaker 3: the third fourth option behind the quarterbacks potentially. I mean,

1329
01:04:54,440 --> 01:04:57,160
Speaker 3: it's interesting if Seattle's in the game, you have no charbonnet,

1330
01:04:57,240 --> 01:05:00,040
Speaker 3: so maybe Walker gets a little bit more attention. And

1331
01:05:00,080 --> 01:05:02,840
Speaker 3: we know McVeigh absolutely loves himself from Kyrien Williams, So

1332
01:05:02,920 --> 01:05:05,760
Speaker 3: even with Blake Korm in the game, maybe Kyen runs

1333
01:05:05,760 --> 01:05:08,000
Speaker 3: for a few touchdowns. But I feel like at fifteen

1334
01:05:08,040 --> 01:05:11,200
Speaker 3: and seventeen to one, it's hard to pass up. All right,

1335
01:05:11,680 --> 01:05:13,560
Speaker 3: that'll do it here on the Action Hour podcast for

1336
01:05:13,600 --> 01:05:17,560
Speaker 3: our NFL Conference Championship Best Bets episode presented by DraftKings.

1337
01:05:17,760 --> 01:05:20,920
Speaker 3: If you want instant notifications when action netsbergs tract their bets,

1338
01:05:21,120 --> 01:05:23,640
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01:05:23,680 --> 01:05:26,200
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01:05:26,280 --> 01:05:28,720
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01:05:28,840 --> 01:05:32,600
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1342
01:05:32,600 --> 01:05:35,479
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1343
01:05:35,480 --> 01:05:37,480
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1344
01:05:37,560 --> 01:05:41,760
Speaker 3: of seconds on Twitter itself super easy. And again, if

1345
01:05:41,800 --> 01:05:43,000
Speaker 3: you want to tell some of the bets we gave

1346
01:05:43,040 --> 01:05:44,880
Speaker 3: out today, make sure to look for the quick slip

1347
01:05:44,880 --> 01:05:47,840
Speaker 3: links in the podcast and video description, or go to

1348
01:05:47,840 --> 01:05:51,040
Speaker 3: action ework dot com slash bet Now. Thank you for listening,

1349
01:05:51,120 --> 01:05:52,200
Speaker 3: Listening enjoy the slay.

1350
01:05:52,240 --> 01:05:54,439
Speaker 1: Good luck with all your bets this weekend, Let's cash

1351
01:05:54,520 --> 01:06:08,600
Speaker 1: the Tickets.

1352
01:06:10,920 --> 01:06:14,360
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1353
01:06:14,760 --> 01:06:17,600
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1354
01:06:17,880 --> 01:06:20,480
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1355
01:06:20,600 --> 01:06:21,360
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler