Speaker 1: The volume. This week on Prime Cuts, Matt Mosey and
Speaker 1: I talk about the Dallas Cowboys future, and there went
Speaker 1: over the Chargers, Chad Millman, Sharper Square. But first my
Speaker 1: top takes of the week, let's talk about the Jets
Speaker 1: upset of the Philadelphia Eagles. Well, Philadelphia, as the saying goes,
Speaker 1: had been playing with their food for the last four
Speaker 1: or five weeks, not putting people away, struggling. I do
Speaker 1: think they missed Shane Stike and the offensive coordinator from
Speaker 1: last year who is now the head coach of the Colts.
Speaker 1: We all recognize that coordinators matter. I don't think the
Speaker 1: Niners defense is quite as good as last year. Demiko
Speaker 1: Ryans is now the head coach of the Houston Texans,
Speaker 1: who won another game with rookie quarterback c J. Stroud.
Speaker 1: So I just think the Eagles are a really good team,
Speaker 1: struggling to find in identity and four turnovers. Jets didn't
Speaker 1: have any. And I also think Robert Salla and his
Speaker 1: staff deserve credit. This is a team that has one
Speaker 1: real playmaker on the outside, Garrett Wilson, nice running back,
Speaker 1: O line is suboptimal, tremendous defense. They're playing into Zach
Speaker 1: Wilson's straints. They kind of limit the places he can
Speaker 1: go and get into trouble. Didn't love all their play calling.
Speaker 1: If you looked at the box score outside of the turnovers,
Speaker 1: you would have thought the Eagles won. Well, if you
Speaker 1: look at the box score USC Notre Dame, you would
Speaker 1: have thought USC one. It doesn't matter. Limit turnovers, limit
Speaker 1: the trouble. Zach Wilson can get you in play great defense,
Speaker 1: take the ball away. You know when I watched Philadelphia,
Speaker 1: and I think Julian Edelman was on my show about
Speaker 1: four or five days ago, three or four days ago
Speaker 1: at Fox, and he said, every September, you know, Bill
Speaker 1: Belichick's worst month of his career. With September. He said,
Speaker 1: every single team, even super Bowl winning teams, the next September,
Speaker 1: if you had ninety percent same roster, he goes, every
Speaker 1: team had a different identity. And Bill believed the first
Speaker 1: four to five weeks of the season, you found your identity.
Speaker 1: Philadelphia can't find one. But they're really, really talented, and
Speaker 1: so the quest is can we figure out exactly what
Speaker 1: we are? Obviously Jalen Hurts made some mistakes today. Also
Speaker 1: makes you know Philadelphia usually is a very good, big
Speaker 1: moment team with this roster, but it's not a surprise.
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan had an MVP with Kyle Shanahan. Kyle Shanahan
Speaker 1: leaves slowly. He's not the same quarterback Philadelphia is. You
Speaker 1: can be two things, very good and lacking a true identity.
Speaker 1: For years, Michigan under Harbaugh was really good, but it
Speaker 1: wasn't until about two three years ago they found that
Speaker 1: true Michigan identity. We're going to physically, at the point
Speaker 1: of attack, dominate you. Ohio State may have better players
Speaker 1: last couple of years, they feel like they've kind of
Speaker 1: lacked a little identity compared to Michigan. So I think
Speaker 1: that's where Philadelphia is. I think they'll be fine eventually.
Speaker 1: They've got a playmaker at quarterback. AJ Brown's remarkable. They
Speaker 1: have so many talented guys in that front seven. Defensively,
Speaker 1: but good for the Jets. I think they've kind of
Speaker 1: figured out and come to terms with what Zach can
Speaker 1: do and what he can I think Zach's playing with
Speaker 1: more confidence now. He's put game after game after game
Speaker 1: three in a row where he's played pretty well. First
Speaker 1: it's Kansas City, then it's Denver, Philadelphia did the best
Speaker 1: of his opportunities. You don't have to win pretty, you
Speaker 1: just gotta win. Good for the Jets. There's been this
Speaker 1: discussion about San Francisco having the best roster, but Brock
Speaker 1: Purdy's excellence is due to the roster and the coach.
Speaker 1: And I thought there was a moment at the end
Speaker 1: of the game that proved what Brock Purtty is, which
Speaker 1: I've claimed is good. I don't know if he's pretty good.
Speaker 1: I don't think he's very good, but he's good. So
Speaker 1: last drive of the game against Cleveland's defense, and that
Speaker 1: is a big boy Cleveland Brown defense, top five in
Speaker 1: the league. It's fast, it's got size, it's relentless, doesn't
Speaker 1: have Christian McCaffrey most of the game, doesn't have Deebo
Speaker 1: Samuel on the road, marches down and gets the team
Speaker 1: into field goal range and the kicker misses. The rookie
Speaker 1: kicker misses. He did his job. If Tom Brady was
Speaker 1: missing Gronken Edelman against this defense, drove down, got the
Speaker 1: field goalkicker in range, and the field goalkicker missed, you'd
Speaker 1: be crushing the kicker. You want to root against Brock Purty,
Speaker 1: You wanted to acknowledge Brady was the goat. Depends on
Speaker 1: where you come from. Perty's good, not great, I don't think,
Speaker 1: but he's good. That was a tough environment, pressure on
Speaker 1: every pass attempt of that final drive on everyone, a
Speaker 1: couple of big plays by Brandon Ayuk sits in the pocket,
Speaker 1: he recognizes who's open and accurately delivers the ball. And
Speaker 1: that's that's what really good franchise quarterbacks do. Ninety percent
Speaker 1: of the people who play this position are dependent on
Speaker 1: those around them, their protection, their weaponry, their head coach.
Speaker 1: Even Mahomes benefits from Kelsey and Andy Reid. So I
Speaker 1: thought that drive, even though it was a losing effort,
Speaker 1: was an example of what brought Perty is not intimidated,
Speaker 1: doesn't panic, can handle a pass rush, got it to
Speaker 1: the right people. McCaffrey debo not available right, but McCaffrey
Speaker 1: wasn't available most of the game. Debo not available at
Speaker 1: the end. Got it to the right people, moved the
Speaker 1: ball up the field and put them in a position
Speaker 1: to win. And he did his job. The Patriots dynasty
Speaker 1: was built on do your job. The kicker didn't do
Speaker 1: his job. Okay, and San Francisco got some heat for
Speaker 1: drafting a kicker where they drafted him, and to this point,
Speaker 1: you know, the Trey Lance thing didn't work. The kicker
Speaker 1: thing has had its ups and downs. They've done a
Speaker 1: very good job to build a roster, but this was
Speaker 1: going to be a really hard day for San Francisco,
Speaker 1: right they come off this dominating national TV performance over Dallas.
Speaker 1: We know in the NFL, one of the things I've
Speaker 1: always done is bet against the team who has this
Speaker 1: dominating performance the previous week, and bet on the team
Speaker 1: if they have a capable quarterback who gets blown out
Speaker 1: the previous week. So it was one of those circle games.
Speaker 1: You know, the line changed dramatically because of the quarterback play,
Speaker 1: but I thought, you know, Cleveland moved the ball enough,
Speaker 1: deserved to win. But to me, the story was another
Speaker 1: example of Purdy is more than capable of at home
Speaker 1: or on the road against an elite defense without all
Speaker 1: of his pieces, moving the chains and getting you in
Speaker 1: position to win the game. So, you know, how do
Speaker 1: you define a franchise quarterback? Tonight? Trevor Lawrence is a
Speaker 1: franchise quarterback, doesn't practice all week, bad knee, facing a
Speaker 1: better defense Saints than Derek Carr faces in the Jacks,
Speaker 1: He's on the road, one of the louder stadiums. Trevor Lawrence,
Speaker 1: unlike Carr, doesn't make the big mistake, doesn't have a picksax,
Speaker 1: A very tidy twenty for twenty nine, two hundred and
Speaker 1: four yards, sixty yards rushing and a touchdown on the
Speaker 1: road against the better defense. Did not practice. That's a
Speaker 1: franchise quarterback. It's not having to play great, it's just
Speaker 1: making enough plays to win a road game when you
Speaker 1: don't practice all week. Derek Carr at home has Alvin Camara,
Speaker 1: arguably the best player in the game, a lave Michael Thomas.
Speaker 1: Derek Carr's line a less efficient thirty three of fifty five,
Speaker 1: a pick six, one touchdown. The offense was essentially Alvin
Speaker 1: Kamara seventeen carries and twelve catches. Think about that, twenty
Speaker 1: nine times he touched the ball. Oh running backs, The
Speaker 1: life of a running back. I am not anti Derek Carr,
Speaker 1: but when Derek Carr was in Vegas or Oakland, he
Speaker 1: was almost a sympathetic figure. Right weird ownership, kooky organization,
Speaker 1: Al Davis into his son, and so when you watched
Speaker 1: him team had to move to Vegas. When you watched
Speaker 1: Derek Carr, he was almost a sympathetic figure. You know,
Speaker 1: if he could only get a good defense, a star back,
Speaker 1: a couple of great weapons, a functional, stable ownership group,
Speaker 1: a weaker conference, oh wait, a weaker division, oh wait.
Speaker 1: He got all of them with the Saints, and it
Speaker 1: feels like he's standing in the way of success. Weaker division,
Speaker 1: no mah Holmes Herbert twice a year, weaker conference, better defense,
Speaker 1: more functional ownership. One of the top gms, Mickey Loomis
Speaker 1: in the league. Two star receivers, star back, and at
Speaker 1: least a good run blocking line. I don't know if
Speaker 1: they're a good pass blocking line the Saints, but a
Speaker 1: pretty good run blocking line. And he's at home facing
Speaker 1: a quarterback who didn't practice and loses. And years ago,
Speaker 1: Raider fans just would relentlessly call me out when I
Speaker 1: would say, you know, I think Derek Carr is about
Speaker 1: the twelfth best quarterback in the league. He's around that
Speaker 1: Dak Prescott level. And I really did believe that. But
Speaker 1: what's happened is Derek's not in his prime. He's just
Speaker 1: out of it, and the league's gotten better at quarterback.
Speaker 1: There's just five or six guys that weren't around five
Speaker 1: years ago. And if you right now look at the
Speaker 1: top ten quarterbacks in the league, and I would say Mahomes,
Speaker 1: Allen Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Herbert Stafford, Hurtz, Trevor, Lawrence Goff,
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. I'll put in there too. Those are ten.
Speaker 1: I would take Kyler, Murray, Dak and Tua above Derek Carr.
Speaker 1: And I watched them play against c J. Stroud last
Speaker 1: week and I thought c J. Stroud was a better
Speaker 1: distributor of the ball, a more accurate thrower, and played
Speaker 1: with more confidence. So now he's the fifteenth best quarterback
Speaker 1: Derek Carr the league, and he got the bag, which
Speaker 1: is going to limit for the next couple of years
Speaker 1: what the Saints can do in free agency. And I
Speaker 1: was talking about this on FS one today. If you're
Speaker 1: questioning whether you should give your quarterback big money, Daniel Jones,
Speaker 1: Ryan Tannehill, you know, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, ask yourself,
Speaker 1: this would at least half the league, and preferably over
Speaker 1: half the league make a call on them. No for Garoppolo, Tannehill,
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones, and Derek Carr. Derek Carr had a market
Speaker 1: of about three teams. That's it. So I spent a
Speaker 1: Saturday in Seattle watching the Huskies beat Oregon. They'll play again,
Speaker 1: I think for the Pac twelve championship, and I think
Speaker 1: Washington has a better quarterback and wide receiver talent, and
Speaker 1: they're more of a big playoffense. I think Oregon's got
Speaker 1: a better roster. I think Texas Oklahoma will play again.
Speaker 1: Texas has the better roster. Oklahoma add a really good
Speaker 1: afternoon and beat Texas. You know. One of the things
Speaker 1: I thought of, though, is as I watch Colorado and
Speaker 1: USC sort of collapse here in the last couple of weeks,
Speaker 1: and clearly there's some regression on both programs that when
Speaker 1: I went to Washington and Oregon, though, both have a
Speaker 1: first round quarterback and a really really good young head coach.
Speaker 1: And these are both very proud. You know, Huskies have
Speaker 1: a national championship, have had several really elite teams. Oregon
Speaker 1: obviously as a top ten program, Phil Knight the visionary
Speaker 1: behind it, despite both of them having NFL players all
Speaker 1: over the roster, first round quarterback talent, Bo Nicks, Michael Pennix,
Speaker 1: the star is the program. At Colorado and USC, the
Speaker 1: star is the coach and the quarterback. And I think
Speaker 1: when I watch USC, if you looked at the box score,
Speaker 1: you would have thought they won. But if you watch
Speaker 1: the game, which I did, they are completely dependent on
Speaker 1: Lincoln Riley's play calling and Caleb Williams making magic happen.
Speaker 1: What else do they do well? Not much. Colorado's got
Speaker 1: a really talented quarterback and a really inspiring coach. What
Speaker 1: else do they do well? Is that college sports is different.
Speaker 1: Even with NIL. Not everybody gets paid. It is about
Speaker 1: the program. When Alabama was dominating college football, it was
Speaker 1: about Nick Saban's suffocating defenses. Saban was a well known
Speaker 1: coach in the architect but they didn't have star quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: Even when they have good quarterbacks like Tua, he's not
Speaker 1: the star of the program. It's the program. Ohio State,
Speaker 1: it's the program. Washington and Oregon were a testament to that.
Speaker 1: It felt like a college game, not a pro game.
Speaker 1: It wasn't about the NIL even though we know Oregon
Speaker 1: is very well capitalized in the NIL space. It was
Speaker 1: a really refreshing game, and it was I think those
Speaker 1: are both top five or six teams in the country.
Speaker 1: I do think Oregon's got a little better talent, but
Speaker 1: I think Michael Pennix is a really special player. And
Speaker 1: Washington may have the best receiving goal in the country.
Speaker 1: Their number two receiver didn't even play. And Oregon's corners,
Speaker 1: who are good, got beat on several occasions. But it
Speaker 1: was refreshing. USC has always been uh. You know, Pete
Speaker 1: Carroll was a bit of a rock star when he
Speaker 1: was here, and so it was Reggie Bush. But the
Speaker 1: difference if you look at New England's dynasty through the years,
Speaker 1: it was about Tom Brady taking pay cuts. It was
Speaker 1: do your job. It wasn't about the star quarterback. And
Speaker 1: there's nothing wrong with having a great quarterback. Tom Brady
Speaker 1: is the goat Mahomes is. But when I think about
Speaker 1: Kansas City, I think about Andy Reid's play design. I
Speaker 1: think about Brett Veach, the general manager. I think about
Speaker 1: them managing the cap, managing Mahomes' salary. I think about
Speaker 1: Travis Kelcey, I think about Spags the UH, the defensive
Speaker 1: coordinator who's been around forever, Chris Jones. It's a collective
Speaker 1: with a great quarterback, I feel like USC football is
Speaker 1: about the quarterback. They don't do anything else well, and
Speaker 1: Washington and Oregon do a lot of things well. All right,
Speaker 1: the Dallas Cowboys, Dak played about as well as he
Speaker 1: has played in the last ten games, certainly against the
Speaker 1: talented Chargers defense. Not a good one, not a well
Speaker 1: coached one, but a talented one. And so Dak throws
Speaker 1: for about two hundred and forty yards a touchdown, couple
Speaker 1: of big throws on that final drive. Brandon Cooks delivered tonight,
Speaker 1: and Matt Mosley, of course, you know, Matt's been a
Speaker 1: friend of the volume for a long time. There's so
Speaker 1: many different areas to go, but let's start with Dak.
Speaker 1: He had better protection most of the night. I thought
Speaker 1: he and Gallup don't work. It's clearly Ceedee Lamb and
Speaker 1: Brandon Cooks. Tonight felt like he sort of arrived in
Speaker 1: this offense. But I thought Dak played pretty well. That fair,
Speaker 1: I think he's fair.
Speaker 2: I mean, I think had it gone the other direction,
Speaker 2: we'd be talking about that throw to Pollard. I mean,
Speaker 2: that will route with Pollard wide open. And I know
Speaker 2: Troy was trying to make the argument maybe Murray did
Speaker 2: something there. I don't really think there was much there,
Speaker 2: so he misses a wide open throw to kind of
Speaker 2: end the game there.
Speaker 3: But for the most part, you're right.
Speaker 2: I mean, I would still say this offense looks weird
Speaker 2: because the only time it really works is when he escapes.
Speaker 2: So he makes the huge play to Pollard, they have
Speaker 2: a mistackle, Poward makes a nice play and goes for sixty.
Speaker 2: But in terms of like the timing of the so
Speaker 2: called Texas Coast offense, there's no real timing, Like Dak
Speaker 2: kind of has to go make plays, ye for it
Speaker 2: to happen.
Speaker 3: Now, the good news is he made him.
Speaker 2: I mean, he was awful the week before, all the
Speaker 2: interceptions and everything he ran. I think he plays so
Speaker 2: much better when they get him running the football and
Speaker 2: on that RPO where he keeps it for the eighteen
Speaker 2: yard touchdown, Like that's huge for his confidence the team.
Speaker 3: Everybody kind of feeds off that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Dak knows what he is more than
Speaker 1: we give him credit for. Dak is not a brilliant
Speaker 1: pocket passer, and I think Dak knows it. Dak's at
Speaker 1: his best. I thought the Cowboys were hyper aggressive and
Speaker 1: ran him in the first half. First couple series they
Speaker 1: went out of their way to say, and Aikman said
Speaker 1: this in the pregame. He said, I think you're gonna
Speaker 1: like what you see from the Cowboys tonight. He'd obviously
Speaker 1: had some intel. I think they made a mission tonight.
Speaker 1: We're gonna run Dak. We're gonna have Dak run more,
Speaker 1: and I think he's more successful that way. There are
Speaker 1: people that are natural runners, Lamar, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts,
Speaker 1: and then there are people that are just what I
Speaker 1: would call they run. They run to escape, but they're
Speaker 1: like Russell Wilson and Dak kind of run to escape,
Speaker 1: but at times I think they're more effective out of
Speaker 1: the pocket. I think Lamar is a better thrower in
Speaker 1: the pocket that people give him credit for. I think
Speaker 1: Josh is great in the pocket. I think Jalen Hurts
Speaker 1: is better in the pocket. I think Dak and Ross
Speaker 1: Wilson are okay guys in the pocket. I just think
Speaker 1: they're okay. So I think I think Dak to your point,
Speaker 1: it is interesting if I said to you the game
Speaker 1: featured two teams with no chance to win a Super
Speaker 1: Bowl for the same reason. Twenty total penalties, eleven on
Speaker 1: Dallas nine on the Chargers. Neither one of these teams
Speaker 1: looks well coached. That was my takeaway tonight. Third down
Speaker 1: defense for the Chargers, ohays, a whole basic off sides
Speaker 1: for the Cowboys, motion penalties. These teams did not look
Speaker 1: well coached.
Speaker 3: To me tonight.
Speaker 2: No Cowboys continue to be undisciplined. You know, on both
Speaker 2: sides on the defensive line, you're right where they line up,
Speaker 2: you know, back to Dak a little bit. Your point
Speaker 2: about the pocket is interesting. He was kind of still
Speaker 2: in the pocket, like his best throw of the night
Speaker 2: might have been when he was backing up, which generally
Speaker 2: is it's interesting. You don't like want your quarterback like
Speaker 2: going back there other than like Mahomes or Josh Allen
Speaker 2: or somebody and throwing kind of off their back foot.
Speaker 3: And yet the best touch he put.
Speaker 2: On a ball was that throw to Cooks in the
Speaker 2: end zone where he's backing up and he's going in
Speaker 2: and he puts he puts a gorgeous ball on that.
Speaker 3: So he he has the ability. I agree.
Speaker 2: I mean, I think first of all, you still have
Speaker 2: wasn't that interesting that you had Kellen Moore on the
Speaker 2: other sideline and you had both teams bogging down, got
Speaker 2: down there in the red zone, didn't really have a
Speaker 2: great plan for what they were going to do, to
Speaker 2: which I was like, both Dallas, you know, both Dallas's
Speaker 2: offenses looked pretty bad in the red zone, right.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 1: It's interesting when I look at this game overall, I
Speaker 1: thought my biggest takeaway was the Dallas defensive front basically
Speaker 1: manipulated the Chargers O line. I think the Chargers had
Speaker 1: six holding calls. Herbert almost never had a clean pocket.
Speaker 1: Therefore he rushed it by the second quarter, missing open
Speaker 1: throws justin. Herbert's a very good quarterback. But I think
Speaker 1: what happens in games sometimes is that when you get
Speaker 1: hit early, even if you don't get sacked, and you
Speaker 1: have to rush the throws, you start doing that automatically.
Speaker 1: You just hurry things up. And I thought they got
Speaker 1: Herbert out of rhythm by their pressure. I mean, he
Speaker 1: was running for his life for the first half. They
Speaker 1: settled down a little in the second. But I think
Speaker 1: my big picture in the entire takeaway is the Chargers
Speaker 1: on occasion elected to block Micah one on one dumb, ineffective,
Speaker 1: huge trouble. But overall, if I'm flying back to Dallas
Speaker 1: the Cowboys. I feel like our defensive front, not McCarthy,
Speaker 1: our defensive front really controlled the football game.
Speaker 3: I think that's right.
Speaker 2: I thought a Digazooa played brilliantly. I thought he controlled,
Speaker 2: and I think Kellen Moore thought, I've got to go
Speaker 2: with the run. I've got to keep I cannot abandon
Speaker 2: the run game at all, And it really wasn't there.
Speaker 2: And then to your point, like seventy seven over on
Speaker 2: the left side, I mean, that was interesting what they
Speaker 2: said about Mike. He's like, well, he respects slate, so
Speaker 2: he's not gonna line up there the whole night. He's
Speaker 2: gonna go to the other side and think about how
Speaker 2: how badly you have to be holding to get called.
Speaker 2: On one of those quick running plays. They run Eckler
Speaker 2: over the left side, and seventy seven gets caught in
Speaker 2: there because it was so incredibly obvious, because he has
Speaker 2: a wrestling move where he took the guy to the ground.
Speaker 2: And boy, we had our leon Lett moment in this
Speaker 2: game where the Cowboys player inexplicably I guess, thought the
Speaker 2: ball was touched by his teammates and slides in there
Speaker 2: at the last minute, Jayalen Tolbert and live to tell
Speaker 2: about it. I mean that that really was Cowboys do
Speaker 2: some boneheaded things, but there's a second year player that
Speaker 2: decides to come diving in after a football and hands
Speaker 2: it back to the Chargers.
Speaker 3: I mean, the Cowboys tried to give them that game, oh.
Speaker 1: No question, and the Chargers. Yeah, the Dallas was the
Speaker 1: better team tonight and tried to give it away. The
Speaker 1: Chargers have they really do have some good players. But
Speaker 1: when you live in Los Angeles and I know they're
Speaker 1: they're not a national team. They're barely a popular regional
Speaker 1: team or a Los Angeles team. But with Brandon Staley
Speaker 1: being a defensive coordinator like Matt Eberflus in Chicago, You're like, well,
Speaker 1: why is the defense so bad? The Chargers have more
Speaker 1: money on the defensive side than any team in the league,
Speaker 1: Khalil Mack and Bosa Derwin James. They whiffed on a
Speaker 1: cornerback acquisition, but they have active linebackers. The Chargers spent
Speaker 1: a ton on defense, two elite rush ends, have a
Speaker 1: defensive coach, and are as bad on fourth and third
Speaker 1: and long as any defense in the league. So at
Speaker 1: least Dallas can say, hey, we have an offensive coach.
Speaker 1: Dak had one of his best games. Brandon Cooks was involved.
Speaker 1: I mean, I look at Dallas and I thought their
Speaker 1: O line play by and large, Dak had a more
Speaker 1: comfortable pocket. Dak had a good game. They had a
Speaker 1: game plan. They moved Dak early. I felt like there
Speaker 1: was a plan by Dallas. Meanwhile, the Chargers off a
Speaker 1: bye week, no trick plays. I didn't what was the
Speaker 1: game plan. Maybe the Cowboys D line blew it up,
Speaker 1: but I didn't see anything.
Speaker 2: Can we talk about what McCarthy was doing at the
Speaker 2: end of the first half, Like when even the clock
Speaker 2: operator thought, well, most any coach ever will stop the
Speaker 2: clock here with a time out and take a shot
Speaker 2: at the end zone with eight seconds left, and McCarthy's
Speaker 2: over there. No, no, I didn't call the time out.
Speaker 2: Wind this clock down for me. And they come back
Speaker 2: from a break. The broadcasters, everybody doing the game is
Speaker 2: like completely confused.
Speaker 3: They're like, did we miss a play? What happened here?
Speaker 2: And and McCarthy because they stopped the clock, they had
Speaker 2: to get it down to three because McCarthy didn't want
Speaker 2: to take a shot at the end zone. I mean,
Speaker 2: like think, I imagine that being a play caller and
Speaker 2: offensive guy, and you've got so little confidence in your
Speaker 2: guy or your offense that you're like, I do not
Speaker 2: want to see a ball go in the end zone
Speaker 2: from what to like the the eighteen yard line wherever
Speaker 2: they were, they're going to take a rip at the
Speaker 2: end zone. And he's like, no, I would rather I've
Speaker 2: got ceedee, lamb, I got all these folks. I'd rather
Speaker 2: just kick this thing and make sure we go in
Speaker 2: ten seven. I mean, you kind of you have one
Speaker 2: young head coach is kind of trying that it's probably
Speaker 2: lucky to still have a job, and then you have
Speaker 2: one coach who's kind of trying to extend his career,
Speaker 2: and they both did some baffling things. But Mike wants
Speaker 2: to be mister go for it them fourth down, but
Speaker 2: then he wants to get down there and like not
Speaker 2: even take a shot and settle for the field goal.
Speaker 2: So I mean, you've got some You've got some weird,
Speaker 2: weird stuff going on in that game.
Speaker 1: All right, Time for another edition Sharper Square. It's the
Speaker 1: CEO of the Action Network, Chad Millman. My buddy O
Speaker 1: Odds provided by DraftKings. So Warren Sharp sent me something
Speaker 1: over the week that was really fascinating. Underdogs are not
Speaker 1: doing well this year, and Warren Sharp not only theorizes
Speaker 1: but indicates that the holding calls defensively have gone down sharply.
Speaker 1: And so when you look at the numbers of the
Speaker 1: holding calls defensively, it's now understood that you're allowed to
Speaker 1: grab receivers down the field. It's just understood. It was
Speaker 1: not three years ago that was we would all as
Speaker 1: fans go, that's a penalty. Now you can do it
Speaker 1: while the balls in the air. If it's not you know,
Speaker 1: lurching at the player and disrupting him. And so what
Speaker 1: does that mean? My theory is that that will punitively
Speaker 1: punish the mediocre to below average quarterbacks. Daniel Jones can't
Speaker 1: even get a touchdown this month, So the Tannehills, the
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones, the backups. The gap between starters and stars
Speaker 1: in backups Tannehill and Mahomes. Now five years ago, he
Speaker 1: could be competitive. The gap now between Daniel Jones and Mahomes.
Speaker 1: It's like junior varsity. Varsity underdogs are not covering the
Speaker 1: best quarterback. If Baker is better than Derek Carr, and
Speaker 1: I think he is leads already leads in seven divisions.
Speaker 1: The exception is brought Party. He's not as good as Stafford,
Speaker 1: but he's better than Arizona's backup and arguably better than
Speaker 1: Geno Smith. So my point being is, I've always been
Speaker 1: a fan of underdogs, but increasingly this year my winning
Speaker 1: bets are on superior quarterbacks covering and Warren Sharp detailing.
Speaker 1: This is really hurting scorings down. But there are more
Speaker 1: blowouts in two years than we've ever had, and the
Speaker 1: score scoring is declining, even for Kansas City, Cincinnati, Baltimore,
Speaker 1: and so I look at my bets this week and
Speaker 1: I think I wouldn't have made these bets a year ago.
Speaker 1: But I'll throw one at you. Ravens minus three at
Speaker 1: home against the Lions. So I watched Baltimore. I thought
Speaker 1: their first half against Tennessee was the single most impressive
Speaker 1: half of the season by a quarterback in any game.
Speaker 1: I thought Lamar was spectacular. Detroit has been on a
Speaker 1: little bit of a streak. They've won on the road.
Speaker 1: This is a whole different ballgame. Baltimore is one of
Speaker 1: the hardest places to play. I still think the Ravens.
Speaker 1: I told you last week it was my favorite bet
Speaker 1: are undervalued. So again plus three Detroit hot would have
Speaker 1: been my pick. I'm gonna go Baltimore minus three Sharper square.
Speaker 4: So it's definitely sharp. Speaking of I think, I think
Speaker 4: Warren's uh sort of inclination about the holding penalties is interesting.
Speaker 4: But you could also argue that teams that are underdogs
Speaker 4: aren't covering because not because there's holding calls, but because
Speaker 4: quarterbacks haven't been making plays. Just look this past weekend.
Speaker 4: How many downfield throws that could have made a difference
Speaker 4: did Baker miss? How many downfield throws that could have
Speaker 4: made a huge difference to justin Herbert miss. I think
Speaker 4: there's a combination of a lot of things that are
Speaker 4: impacting some of these games. Some of them are sort
Speaker 4: of factors that are are not repeatable. Some of them
Speaker 4: are a regression. Some of them are things that are
Speaker 4: going to be patterns. Certainly, offense is down considerably and.
Speaker 1: Sacks are up, by the way, so online plays, so
Speaker 1: media with pressure and holding defensive holding, like, the sacks
Speaker 1: are way up, so if you can escape it, you're okay.
Speaker 3: This year.
Speaker 4: I think right now the average yards per attempt, yards
Speaker 4: per completion, it's something like ten point six. It's amongst
Speaker 4: the lowest and in the modern era of the NFL.
Speaker 4: So certainly defenses are on the up and offenses are
Speaker 4: leveling out, which probably means when the Competition Committee meets
Speaker 4: in the spring, they will figure out a way to
Speaker 4: make it easier for offenses.
Speaker 3: Tu score the football.
Speaker 4: You know, But to your point about the Ravens, yeah,
Speaker 4: it's the sharp side. The line opened at two and
Speaker 4: a half. Everybody believes the Lions are way over valued.
Speaker 4: You're talking about a team that was eleven to one
Speaker 4: to win the NFC before the season began. They're now
Speaker 4: down to six to one, just behind the Dallas Cowboys
Speaker 4: and obviously the Niners and the Eagles. And you have
Speaker 4: to take a look for a second at who the
Speaker 4: Lions have beaten, right, the Panthers, the Bucks. They have
Speaker 4: not beaten very good teams, the Packers, and meanwhile, well,
Speaker 4: the Ravens. A they scored twenty eight points against the
Speaker 4: Cleveland Browns, which is an historically great defense. And your
Speaker 4: point about Lamar is spot on, like they've been red
Speaker 4: zone inefficient in certain games. That game against the Steelers.
Speaker 4: They should have won. We talked about this last week.
Speaker 4: A lot of drop passes that would have made the
Speaker 4: difference and put the game away. He's actually playing really well,
Speaker 4: and Lamar, when he is a short favorite, is actually
Speaker 4: very very good against the spread. Bigger favorite, not so
Speaker 4: much short favorite. I like it. Wise, guys like it.
Speaker 4: You're sharp.
Speaker 1: Eagles minus two and a half another favorite hosting Miami.
Speaker 1: I think Miami. I've got a pretty good read. They're
Speaker 1: a heavy weight with a glass chin. If you punch
Speaker 1: him back, can get a rush with four. They fold
Speaker 1: pretty quickly. Lane Johnson should play. That's a more comfortable
Speaker 1: quarterback against the less comfortable quarterback. Miami will score. But
Speaker 1: if you look at their defensive front for Miami and
Speaker 1: the offensive front of Lane Johnson plays, this could be
Speaker 1: ball control dominant. I'm going to take for the record,
Speaker 1: Philadelphia night game at home. Watch the Phillies games lately,
Speaker 1: like it's just different. I'm gonna take Eagles minus two
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 4: Sharper square, totally sharp through is This line opened at
Speaker 4: one and a half and moved up to two. Now
Speaker 4: it's a two and a half. It is a pros.
Speaker 4: Joe's game right. The wise guys are one hundred percent
Speaker 4: on the Eagles. The Joe's, the amateurs, the squares, they
Speaker 4: are on the Dolphins. And you mentioned a couple. You
Speaker 4: mentioned two things that are really important here. One, Lane Johnson,
Speaker 4: if he plays, this is a significantly different team. When
Speaker 4: he doesn't. I think they're ten and twenty two without
Speaker 4: Lane Johnson, and when he plays, they're a super Bowl
Speaker 4: caliber team. Two, Jalen hurts against pressure not so good.
Speaker 4: Jalen hurts when he's not against pressure with teams that
Speaker 4: can't pressure him more than forty percent of the time.
Speaker 4: I think he's twenty and five in his career. So
Speaker 4: you're talking about a Miami Dolphins team that is not
Speaker 4: great at pressuring the quarterback, and you're talking about an
Speaker 4: Eagles team that is coming off a loss that they
Speaker 4: were headed for. You and I have talked about this,
Speaker 4: Like the Eagles have been winning because they have a
Speaker 4: really good head coach, they have a really good quarterback,
Speaker 4: they have really good weapons on the edges, but they
Speaker 4: haven't been gelling offensively at all. And also last week
Speaker 4: Jalen Carter didn't play right. He was resting, so this
Speaker 4: week he should be back on defense, and the Eagles
Speaker 4: had that moment like, Okay, we've been stealing wins. We
Speaker 4: were embarrassed by the Jets. We understand better now what
Speaker 4: we need to do. We're going to come back because
Speaker 4: that's who we are. The wise guys are on the Eagles.
Speaker 1: One more favorite I think I would take. I'm not
Speaker 1: sure I love it, but I'm going to wait for
Speaker 1: the injury report. Minnesota is just not that good. I
Speaker 1: hear about how unlucky they are. Maybe that's not the issue.
Speaker 1: Forty nine ers off a loss are a really good
Speaker 1: football team. Minnesota is not. I don't think it's a
Speaker 1: great locker room. I don't think I don't think they
Speaker 1: create pressure situations for offenses. I think San Francisco will
Speaker 1: control the ball at some point. If you do something
Speaker 1: five or six weeks in a row, you're not unlucky.
Speaker 1: It's who you are. And I don't think Minnesota is
Speaker 1: very good. I think quietly in the building they're moving
Speaker 1: off Cousins. They moved off to Alvin Cook. I don't
Speaker 1: think it's I just I don't love this team. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna take the Niners minus six and a half. Sharper square.
Speaker 4: You are who your record says you are. Didn't some
Speaker 4: brilliant coach say that one will parselves. The Vikings are
Speaker 4: not a very good football team. They weren't very good
Speaker 4: last week against a terrible team and the Bears. The
Speaker 4: only reason they won that game is because a second
Speaker 4: stream quarterback who's a rookie who had never played, came
Speaker 4: in off the bench, fumbled scoop and score for the Vikings.
Speaker 4: That was the difference in the game. Otherwise the Bears
Speaker 4: with a backup quarterback win that game, right, And so
Speaker 4: this has been the sentiment on the Vikings all year.
Speaker 4: People were fading the Vikings. They did not expect them
Speaker 4: to win at the rate they did last year. There
Speaker 4: was gonna be a regression because of how many one
Speaker 4: score games they won. This line has moved up from
Speaker 4: six and a half it did seven. The wise guys
Speaker 4: are hesitant to come in on big road favorites, but
Speaker 4: in this case they are aligned with you.
Speaker 1: I thought most of the lines like I think Seattle
Speaker 1: hosting the Cardinals. I thought, initially if it was six
Speaker 1: and a half, I really like Seattle. I think people
Speaker 1: have figured out Arizona, so it's seven. So if Blazing
Speaker 1: five was on Monday, I would have taken Seattle. Now
Speaker 1: the numbers not good. My question is if it's seven,
Speaker 1: do you take Seattle seven and a half? You don't seven,
Speaker 1: do you? No?
Speaker 4: No, I agree with you, And I think what happened
Speaker 4: with Arizona is like it's another sort of Cinderella story
Speaker 4: where the shine has come off a little bit and
Speaker 4: people we know what they figured about out right, and honestly,
Speaker 4: the biggest challenge for them they lost James Connor. Like
Speaker 4: he was bull rushing over everybody, right, and he was
Speaker 4: really powering their offense. And without him, they really don't
Speaker 4: have any weapons that scare anybody. So to me, seven
Speaker 4: is a pass. If you could have gotten itto six
Speaker 4: and a half, you know, like you could still get
Speaker 4: San Francisco, you can get it at six and a half.
Speaker 4: I think those are the two sort of bigger favorites.
Speaker 4: The other game that's really interesting and this one is like,
Speaker 4: remember for years we've been doing segments like this together
Speaker 4: and every year I'm telling you you got to take
Speaker 4: the Jags when they were terrible. It's they're plus thirteen
Speaker 4: and a half on the road. You got to take
Speaker 4: the Jags. That's what the wise guys are gonna do
Speaker 4: the New England Patriots have become the jab.
Speaker 3: I can't. I told you I can't.
Speaker 1: When I can't watch a team, I can't bet them.
Speaker 4: So you can watch the Green Bay Denver.
Speaker 1: Game, fascinated by Sean Payton and Russell Wilson fascinated And
Speaker 1: is Jordan Love gonna make it or not? If Jordan
Speaker 1: Love is a lousy Sunday, we have to be honest
Speaker 1: here sitting for three years completing fifty of his throws
Speaker 1: with Matt Lafleur. If he can't move the ball, we
Speaker 1: got a white flag thing here, like you can't keep
Speaker 1: defending him. So that game's got a lot like we
Speaker 1: know Russell's not gonna last. But if Jordan Loves struggles,
Speaker 1: you cannot sit there by the way, C J. Stroud,
Speaker 1: no offensive lineman, can't run, rookie play caler rookie coach
Speaker 1: game one good. You can't be in a place four
Speaker 1: years and complete fifty five percent of your throws. I
Speaker 1: don't want to hear about Kristin Watson's not available.
Speaker 3: Give me a break.
Speaker 1: So I mean, I think that game is actually whatever
Speaker 1: the word is the French word for so ugly it's attractive,
Speaker 1: that's Green Bay, Denver.
Speaker 4: You know it's interesting. So I come from a startup
Speaker 4: culture with Action network, right, you're building a really valuable, strong,
Speaker 4: incredible business with the volume. Yeah, if you're in a
Speaker 4: venture backed business. One of the best phrases I ever
Speaker 4: heard some of the folks who helped to who bankrolled
Speaker 4: Action when we started, is are you being intellectually honest
Speaker 4: about what you're looking at? Meaning? Can you look at
Speaker 4: the data? Can you make a decision not based on
Speaker 4: what you want it to be, not based on what
Speaker 4: you think it could be if X factors hadn't impacted
Speaker 4: the numbers. It's like, can you look at the numbers?
Speaker 4: Can you say, Okay, this is what's happening, and then
Speaker 4: can you make decisions about the business going forward based
Speaker 4: on those numbers, regardless of your input into deciding how
Speaker 4: you got to that point or if it's going against
Speaker 4: what you believe it should be. Same goes if it's
Speaker 4: going well, like can you be intellectually honest about examining
Speaker 4: what you see in front of you? Can the packers
Speaker 4: be intellectually honest about Jordan Love if he continues to
Speaker 4: be a fifty five percent completion rate. Pastor who who
Speaker 4: misses open looks.
Speaker 1: As always Chad Miller. It's good seeing you always a
Speaker 1: pleasure brother. The volume