WEBVTT - Single Best Idea: Daragh Maher & Brad Case

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best idea on the slowest week of the year. Well,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe the last week of December's the slowest week of

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<v Speaker 2>the year, or maybe it's the last week of August. Whatever,

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<v Speaker 2>it's not this year. After the Powell speech, and it

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<v Speaker 2>was an extraordinary speech. I've gone back and reread it twice.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you Claudia Simon. She said time shut up and

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<v Speaker 2>go back and read it twice. I did, and I

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<v Speaker 2>love the last paragraph. We featured that today on Lessons

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<v Speaker 2>Learned the humility of this crazy economics, finance, investment and

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<v Speaker 2>international relations. We do. But it was an eventful Monday today,

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<v Speaker 2>no question about that. Thank you to Jumani Brasacchi of

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<v Speaker 2>Horizons out of Dubai. Look for that on Bloomberg Television

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<v Speaker 2>and on her Lebanon really talking with some emotion about

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<v Speaker 2>the view south from Beirut towards Israel and of course

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<v Speaker 2>all that Israel's experiencing as well. Ethan Brown are from

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<v Speaker 2>Tel Aviv helping us out this morning. And foreign exchange

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<v Speaker 2>on the new week Dollar. It's always good to talk

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<v Speaker 2>to Daryl Meyer. He's a the HSBC here and the

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<v Speaker 2>week Dollar it's weird.

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<v Speaker 1>The market seems to want to dislike the dollar, right,

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<v Speaker 1>and so for a period they said, well, the reason

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<v Speaker 1>to dislike the dollar is the US is setting to recession,

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<v Speaker 1>and they said, well, actually no, it's not. Now the

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<v Speaker 1>reason to dislike the dollar is because US setting for

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<v Speaker 1>assault landing, and it feels like it's gotten beaten up

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<v Speaker 1>the last couple of months. You know, I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>ready for a bounce. I think it's ready for consolidation.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, we've constructed a narrative that fitted the price action,

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<v Speaker 1>but really, is the US economy in such bad shape?

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not convinced. And then I always come back to

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<v Speaker 1>the question is like, I'm going to joke to you,

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<v Speaker 1>why will I like you in Ireland? But why do

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<v Speaker 1>people like the euro? And you kind of go, well,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not the dollar, but I think that only gets

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<v Speaker 1>you so far right, And if you actually go why

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<v Speaker 1>why do I like the Euro? It feels like a

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<v Speaker 1>pretty short conversation. So I think that's also part of

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<v Speaker 1>the Russian off. Why you can get back to one

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<v Speaker 1>of five and you're a dollar.

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<v Speaker 2>Deren Mara, there, I agreed with Jeff for you of

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<v Speaker 2>Bny melon there on that target of euro weaker euro

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<v Speaker 2>stronger dollar migrating from one to eleven, one twelve to

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<v Speaker 2>a weaker euro. One oh five is where those two

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<v Speaker 2>are looking and of course always open to at debate.

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<v Speaker 2>That's what makes the market go. I would note d

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<v Speaker 2>x Y the Blended Large Country Index. A traditional index

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<v Speaker 2>goes one oh five, four, three, two one. A break

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<v Speaker 2>below one hundred would be a huge deal. I don't

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<v Speaker 2>have the BBDXY the Bloomberg Dollar Index in front of me,

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<v Speaker 2>but it's a much better series, including em including China.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a much richer set of data. Look for the

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg dx Y bbdx Y in the terminal. It's out

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<v Speaker 2>there publicly as well as a very important series. Every

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<v Speaker 2>once in a while, how someone walks in the door

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<v Speaker 2>with incredible accomplishments in a topic that we all feel

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<v Speaker 2>so certain about. Brad Case out of the yel combine

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<v Speaker 2>of Schiller, GutsMan and others economists chief economist Fanny May

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<v Speaker 2>for years. He's now working for some people Middleburg communities,

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<v Speaker 2>trying to do rental real estate in a more constructive way.

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<v Speaker 2>We talked about that, but he was devastating, and I

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<v Speaker 2>think one of the great canards that's out there, that

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<v Speaker 2>real estate is a way better investment than a blended

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<v Speaker 2>stock market average. This is maybe the important, most important

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<v Speaker 2>conversation of the week, and it's only Monday. Brad Case

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<v Speaker 2>on stocks or real estate.

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<v Speaker 3>It turns out that what's most important is that when

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<v Speaker 3>you buy a house, you have to put a gigantic

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<v Speaker 3>amount of money into an asset that appreciation is very low.

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<v Speaker 3>If you instate, you rent a place, whether it's a

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<v Speaker 3>house or an.

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<v Speaker 2>Apartment, you can go invest somewhere else.

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<v Speaker 3>You put that money into the stock market, and that

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<v Speaker 3>is a much better investment. That the total returns on

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<v Speaker 3>real estate are much much lower than in the stock market.

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<v Speaker 3>And I've actually done this analysis with data going back

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<v Speaker 3>to the early nineteen seventies. Most of the time people

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<v Speaker 3>are better off renting than owning in terms of building wealth.

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<v Speaker 2>I can't say enough the importance of that. I also

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<v Speaker 2>can't say enough how so many people disagree violently with

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<v Speaker 2>brad Case over that people forget about the leverage taken

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<v Speaker 2>within a mortgage structure of housing and the risks at intel.

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<v Speaker 2>Many of the people have not enjoyed real or nominal

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<v Speaker 2>house price decreases and a lot of people, and particularly

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<v Speaker 2>the marketing of real estate that I see both institutionally

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<v Speaker 2>in retail. It forgets the fees along the way, the

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<v Speaker 2>costs along the way. The tex is we need a

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<v Speaker 2>maroon carpet in the family room and the rest of it.

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<v Speaker 2>What should we do with the lawn deer? Maybe you're

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<v Speaker 2>ranking that conversation up over the Labor day weekend to

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<v Speaker 2>try and improve the man's bradcase of Middleburg. They're just

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<v Speaker 2>absolutely brilliant. Couple of program notes, Apple CarPlay, Android Auto.

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<v Speaker 2>They're out with new software soon. I don't know when

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<v Speaker 2>that happens, but soon. And on YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts.

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<v Speaker 2>You go to YouTube search Bloomberg Podcasts, you subscribe, and

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<v Speaker 2>we're there every morning. We're working on a new checklt

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<v Speaker 2>where Lisa Mateo's front and center, which is probably a

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<v Speaker 2>smart strategy. We'll see on that. But answer is YouTube

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<v Speaker 2>is really working for us. Good morning on Bloomberg Radio

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg eleven to three to zero in New York and

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<v Speaker 2>Washington is well. Wonderful FM signal in Washington and coming

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<v Speaker 2>September third in Boston, a ginormous signal ninety two nine

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<v Speaker 2>FM in Boston on Apple Podcasts. This is single best

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<v Speaker 2>idea seven