Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea on the slowest week of the year. Well,
Speaker 2: maybe the last week of December's the slowest week of
Speaker 2: the year, or maybe it's the last week of August. Whatever,
Speaker 2: it's not this year. After the Powell speech, and it
Speaker 2: was an extraordinary speech. I've gone back and reread it twice.
Speaker 2: Thank you Claudia Simon. She said time shut up and
Speaker 2: go back and read it twice. I did, and I
Speaker 2: love the last paragraph. We featured that today on Lessons
Speaker 2: Learned the humility of this crazy economics, finance, investment and
Speaker 2: international relations. We do. But it was an eventful Monday today,
Speaker 2: no question about that. Thank you to Jumani Brasacchi of
Speaker 2: Horizons out of Dubai. Look for that on Bloomberg Television
Speaker 2: and on her Lebanon really talking with some emotion about
Speaker 2: the view south from Beirut towards Israel and of course
Speaker 2: all that Israel's experiencing as well. Ethan Brown are from
Speaker 2: Tel Aviv helping us out this morning. And foreign exchange
Speaker 2: on the new week Dollar. It's always good to talk
Speaker 2: to Daryl Meyer. He's a the HSBC here and the
Speaker 2: week Dollar it's weird.
Speaker 1: The market seems to want to dislike the dollar, right,
Speaker 1: and so for a period they said, well, the reason
Speaker 1: to dislike the dollar is the US is setting to recession,
Speaker 1: and they said, well, actually no, it's not. Now the
Speaker 1: reason to dislike the dollar is because US setting for
Speaker 1: assault landing, and it feels like it's gotten beaten up
Speaker 1: the last couple of months. You know, I think it's
Speaker 1: ready for a bounce. I think it's ready for consolidation.
Speaker 1: You know, we've constructed a narrative that fitted the price action,
Speaker 1: but really, is the US economy in such bad shape?
Speaker 1: I'm not convinced. And then I always come back to
Speaker 1: the question is like, I'm going to joke to you,
Speaker 1: why will I like you in Ireland? But why do
Speaker 1: people like the euro? And you kind of go, well,
Speaker 1: it's not the dollar, but I think that only gets
Speaker 1: you so far right, And if you actually go why
Speaker 1: why do I like the Euro? It feels like a
Speaker 1: pretty short conversation. So I think that's also part of
Speaker 1: the Russian off. Why you can get back to one
Speaker 1: of five and you're a dollar.
Speaker 2: Deren Mara, there, I agreed with Jeff for you of
Speaker 2: Bny melon there on that target of euro weaker euro
Speaker 2: stronger dollar migrating from one to eleven, one twelve to
Speaker 2: a weaker euro. One oh five is where those two
Speaker 2: are looking and of course always open to at debate.
Speaker 2: That's what makes the market go. I would note d
Speaker 2: x Y the Blended Large Country Index. A traditional index
Speaker 2: goes one oh five, four, three, two one. A break
Speaker 2: below one hundred would be a huge deal. I don't
Speaker 2: have the BBDXY the Bloomberg Dollar Index in front of me,
Speaker 2: but it's a much better series, including em including China.
Speaker 2: It's a much richer set of data. Look for the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg dx Y bbdx Y in the terminal. It's out
Speaker 2: there publicly as well as a very important series. Every
Speaker 2: once in a while, how someone walks in the door
Speaker 2: with incredible accomplishments in a topic that we all feel
Speaker 2: so certain about. Brad Case out of the yel combine
Speaker 2: of Schiller, GutsMan and others economists chief economist Fanny May
Speaker 2: for years. He's now working for some people Middleburg communities,
Speaker 2: trying to do rental real estate in a more constructive way.
Speaker 2: We talked about that, but he was devastating, and I
Speaker 2: think one of the great canards that's out there, that
Speaker 2: real estate is a way better investment than a blended
Speaker 2: stock market average. This is maybe the important, most important
Speaker 2: conversation of the week, and it's only Monday. Brad Case
Speaker 2: on stocks or real estate.
Speaker 3: It turns out that what's most important is that when
Speaker 3: you buy a house, you have to put a gigantic
Speaker 3: amount of money into an asset that appreciation is very low.
Speaker 3: If you instate, you rent a place, whether it's a
Speaker 3: house or an.
Speaker 2: Apartment, you can go invest somewhere else.
Speaker 3: You put that money into the stock market, and that
Speaker 3: is a much better investment. That the total returns on
Speaker 3: real estate are much much lower than in the stock market.
Speaker 3: And I've actually done this analysis with data going back
Speaker 3: to the early nineteen seventies. Most of the time people
Speaker 3: are better off renting than owning in terms of building wealth.
Speaker 2: I can't say enough the importance of that. I also
Speaker 2: can't say enough how so many people disagree violently with
Speaker 2: brad Case over that people forget about the leverage taken
Speaker 2: within a mortgage structure of housing and the risks at intel.
Speaker 2: Many of the people have not enjoyed real or nominal
Speaker 2: house price decreases and a lot of people, and particularly
Speaker 2: the marketing of real estate that I see both institutionally
Speaker 2: in retail. It forgets the fees along the way, the
Speaker 2: costs along the way. The tex is we need a
Speaker 2: maroon carpet in the family room and the rest of it.
Speaker 2: What should we do with the lawn deer? Maybe you're
Speaker 2: ranking that conversation up over the Labor day weekend to
Speaker 2: try and improve the man's bradcase of Middleburg. They're just
Speaker 2: absolutely brilliant. Couple of program notes, Apple CarPlay, Android Auto.
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Speaker 2: where Lisa Mateo's front and center, which is probably a
Speaker 2: smart strategy. We'll see on that. But answer is YouTube
Speaker 2: is really working for us. Good morning on Bloomberg Radio
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