WEBVTT - A Nobel Economist's Plan To Tax Digital Ads

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<v Speaker 1>Also media.

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<v Speaker 2>Hello and welcome to Better Offline. I'm your host ed Zeitron.

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<v Speaker 2>Back in March of this year, MIT economist, their own

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<v Speaker 2>some Oglu and MIT Sloan Simon Johnson published a paper

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<v Speaker 2>called the Urgent Need to Tax Digital Advertising, where digital

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<v Speaker 2>advertisers will be levied with a flat tax of fifty

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<v Speaker 2>percent on all revenue above five hundred million dollars. And

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<v Speaker 2>today I'm joined by Drone to walk through it. Daron,

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<v Speaker 2>thank you for coming on.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you, Thanks Ed.

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<v Speaker 2>It's my pleasure, so walk me through the idea. It

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<v Speaker 2>seems pretty simple, but maybe there's more nuance to it.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, it's very simple to implement, it's very simple to explain.

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<v Speaker 1>The question is why, you know, why do something like this?

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<v Speaker 1>You know, after all, who doesn't love something free? And

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<v Speaker 1>we're getting a lot of free things because the entire

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<v Speaker 1>our online ecosystem is monetized via digital ads. The issue is,

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<v Speaker 1>I think this ecosystem creates a number of problems which

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<v Speaker 1>are set to get worse.

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<v Speaker 3>With AI right.

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<v Speaker 1>The most obvious of those is something that's been discussed

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<v Speaker 1>quite a bit over the last few years, which is

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<v Speaker 1>that monetizing via digital ads means that you are going

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<v Speaker 1>to encourage platforms to collect more and more data about people,

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<v Speaker 1>and this creates a much more intrusive, lower privacy, and

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<v Speaker 1>potentially distorted sort of system.

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<v Speaker 3>Right.

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<v Speaker 1>The second, perhaps corollary or separate thing which has started

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<v Speaker 1>Reach receiving more attention, is that this also means you

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<v Speaker 1>want to make sure that the eyeballs are glued to

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<v Speaker 1>the screen, which your large screen, small screen, and that

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<v Speaker 1>itself might generate a lot of other problems, including perhaps

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<v Speaker 1>mental health problems, because you try to get people to

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<v Speaker 1>stay on the platform by inducing strong emotions envy, jealousy, anger, outrage,

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<v Speaker 1>and so on and sort of it creates a very

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<v Speaker 1>different type of social environment than we are used to,

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<v Speaker 1>with widespread negative consequences. But I think the one that

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<v Speaker 1>I'm most worried about is that this reduces competition. It

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<v Speaker 1>is impossible today for any service by a newcomer to

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<v Speaker 1>come in and say, Okay, you're going to get this

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<v Speaker 1>from Google, Facebook, Instagram for free, and I'm going to

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<v Speaker 1>provide higher quality content for which you have to pay

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<v Speaker 1>a subscription fee or something else. Especially difficult because newcomers

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<v Speaker 1>are not going to have the network. There's going to

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<v Speaker 1>be uncertainty about their quality. So it really cements the

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<v Speaker 1>system where everything is going to be monetized via digital ads,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's going to discourage the entry of new products,

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<v Speaker 1>new services, and especially new technologies. For example, everybody worries

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<v Speaker 1>about what social media and other online platforms and AI

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<v Speaker 1>implies will imply for democracy. Well, something that actually creates

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<v Speaker 1>more pro democratic conversations, higher quality content, that's going to

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<v Speaker 1>be very difficult to get off the ground today.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, So how does this tax actually change the incentive though?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I think the main way in which it changes

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<v Speaker 1>the incentives is that it makes it possibly more likely

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<v Speaker 1>that both existing platforms and new platforms will now say,

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<v Speaker 1>let me experiment with new products that are higher quality

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<v Speaker 1>for which I can build a clientele via subscription fees

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<v Speaker 1>or other things. Because if I get one hundred million

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<v Speaker 1>dollars via digital ads, half of it is gonna go away.

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<v Speaker 1>If I can get that money for I have subscription fees,

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<v Speaker 1>that's good. It's no longer so inferior to doing it

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<v Speaker 1>via digital ads.

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<v Speaker 2>But I think one of the things that concerns me

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<v Speaker 2>with it, or maybe it's less of a concern and

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<v Speaker 2>more just the after effect will be is the people

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<v Speaker 2>are used to not paying for social media.

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<v Speaker 1>That's why this needs to be high. You know, if

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<v Speaker 1>this was a ten percent tax, it wouldn't make so

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<v Speaker 1>much of a difference. So in some sense, when I

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<v Speaker 1>mentioned ecosystem, I was intending to imply by that both

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<v Speaker 1>what the offering side the platforms are doing and what

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<v Speaker 1>the consumers are expecting. So there's a synergistic relationship between users, consumers,

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<v Speaker 1>and the firms, and you want to change that relationship. Again,

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<v Speaker 1>you wouldn't want to do it if the market system

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<v Speaker 1>was working perfectly and everything was hanky dory, but I

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<v Speaker 1>think there's a lot of evidence that's not the case

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<v Speaker 1>at the moment.

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<v Speaker 2>So and the incentives would be that they just can't

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<v Speaker 2>make that much money off of digital ads, so they

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<v Speaker 2>will have to find new business lines. But could this

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<v Speaker 2>not potentially kill off the idea of the free social network.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, first of all, I think that idea has become excessive.

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<v Speaker 1>If we scale it back, it wouldn't be so bad.

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<v Speaker 1>And in some sense, I think the purpose is to

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<v Speaker 1>scale it back because once everybody expects everything for free,

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<v Speaker 1>that does create a race to the bottom in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of quality, in terms of data protection, in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>you know, new technologies that you know, will actually change

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<v Speaker 1>the face of the kinds of offerings that we get right.

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<v Speaker 2>And it's I remember in the past, we've had companies

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<v Speaker 2>try paid social networks and it just hasn't worked.

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<v Speaker 1>Well. It didn't work because they were up against free

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<v Speaker 1>social networks digitized so it monetized via digital ads, especially

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<v Speaker 1>at a time when people didn't understand what the costs

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<v Speaker 1>of these things were. You know, I think even today

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<v Speaker 1>there are consumers who do not fully recognize the amount

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<v Speaker 1>of data that's being collected about them. So if you

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<v Speaker 1>go back ten years ago, I think both the sort

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<v Speaker 1>of addictive or quasi addictive nature of social media, the

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<v Speaker 1>extensive data collection, and how that data can be used

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<v Speaker 1>both you know, to guide you towards certain products, perhaps

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<v Speaker 1>to behaviorally manipulate you, or perhaps to charge you higher prices.

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<v Speaker 1>All of these things were not completely understood.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think I gain what you mean.

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<v Speaker 2>It's like the latest stage model of Instagram and Facebook

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<v Speaker 2>is so different because when everything's free, you don't really

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<v Speaker 2>have a mechanism to control the customer other than just

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<v Speaker 2>tricking them just continually.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I'm not gonna trick is probably wrong. There

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<v Speaker 1>is tricking. There is tricking, it's not everything. So you know,

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<v Speaker 1>when you get an AD, it's useful, you're finding out

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<v Speaker 1>about products. But what is the trade off between how

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<v Speaker 1>much of your private data you want other people to

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<v Speaker 1>have access to versus getting some of those products? And second,

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<v Speaker 1>once people wants platforms have access to that data, what

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<v Speaker 1>is there to stop them from offering some of the

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<v Speaker 1>manipulative products as well as some of the useful products.

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<v Speaker 2>So perhaps the biggest thing, because I just while prepping

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<v Speaker 2>for this episode, I went and did some math, and

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<v Speaker 2>what you're suggesting would kill Meta. Now I'm not saying

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<v Speaker 2>that you should. You're suggesting you should kill Meta. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>just saying that metas for the last four quarters their

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<v Speaker 2>net income was fifty one point three five billion, offer

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<v Speaker 2>one hundred and thirty billion dollars worth of revenue. So

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<v Speaker 2>this would make their business model untenable.

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<v Speaker 3>Is that well?

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<v Speaker 1>First of all, no, I mean, you know, instead of

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<v Speaker 1>fifty five billion, if they make you know, thirty billion,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not the end of the world. I would be

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<v Speaker 1>happy to have a company that is worth thirty billion.

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<v Speaker 3>As would I.

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<v Speaker 1>But the hope is that they would also then offer

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<v Speaker 1>products and services that are higher quality, that are subscription based.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, we know people still you know, pay for

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<v Speaker 1>certain things, although less like Netflix. Netflix is also now

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<v Speaker 1>being sort of being forced to move more in that direction.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, is there a world in which higher quality

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<v Speaker 1>Netflix for which some people pay is viable, where whereas

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<v Speaker 1>you know, some lower quality one financed via you know,

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<v Speaker 1>monetized via ads also coexists. I think those are questions,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think it sort of opens up the market

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<v Speaker 1>system to different, different sort of forces. So if there

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<v Speaker 1>is a paid What's Up that has better security features

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<v Speaker 1>and you don't get these completely unexpected annoying things that

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<v Speaker 1>have started popping up in What's Up, perhaps that's attractive

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<v Speaker 1>and some people will be happy to pay ten dollars

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<v Speaker 1>a year for that.

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<v Speaker 2>Kind of feels like the advertising model is a lazy

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<v Speaker 2>man's business as well, because it doesn't incentivize you to

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<v Speaker 2>make a better product. To exactly, a device is a monopoly, right.

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<v Speaker 1>And why, you know, how did I arrive to this idea?

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<v Speaker 1>My stick for the last you know, two decades at least,

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<v Speaker 1>and especially with regards to AI and the digital technologies,

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<v Speaker 1>is these technologies are extremely malleable. We can develop them

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<v Speaker 1>in different ways. We can have higher quality technologies that

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<v Speaker 1>increase worker productivity, or we can have rot automation lazy automation.

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<v Speaker 1>You can have addictive social media that makes you go

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<v Speaker 1>into your cocoon and you become uninterested in forming bridges

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<v Speaker 1>and engaging in democratic citizenry. Or we can have platforms

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<v Speaker 1>that actually encourage different types of communications and the active

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<v Speaker 1>citizenry that democracy requires. Which ones of those will be?

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<v Speaker 1>And I think since we have gone more and more

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<v Speaker 1>in the automation way and the lay in the sort

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<v Speaker 1>of toxic environment of social media, a change requires new products,

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<v Speaker 1>new technologies, and that means a more open system. So

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<v Speaker 1>the way that I sort of started sort of coming

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<v Speaker 1>towards this idea was, well, what's the barrier to this? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that there are a few big tech companies

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<v Speaker 1>that can acquire competitors as a barrier, but the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that even if they don't acquire you, they pigeonhole you

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<v Speaker 1>into the same ecosystem in which they exist. And I

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<v Speaker 1>think that's a big problem.

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<v Speaker 2>How do you mean they pigeonhole you even if they

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<v Speaker 2>haven't acquired you as a user, Because.

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<v Speaker 1>To compete against them, you need to also offer your

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<v Speaker 1>products for free, which means the only thing you can

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<v Speaker 1>do is for digital advertising. If you need quality data,

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<v Speaker 1>you can't afford it, You're not going to have an

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<v Speaker 1>incentive to get it. If you need high quality, niche products,

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<v Speaker 1>you know nobody's going to buy them because everybody is

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<v Speaker 1>used to this free free v's and.

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<v Speaker 3>Everything, right, So it creates a kind of h yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>RaSE the bottom. But also just there's no way to

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<v Speaker 3>there's no reason they would have.

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<v Speaker 2>To compete, like you couldn't compete as they We haven't

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<v Speaker 2>really seen any new social networks in years other than

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<v Speaker 2>Blue Sky and Threads. And Threads is a part of

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<v Speaker 2>a part of the Facebook machine.

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<v Speaker 1>And we have seen talk about TikTok is just a

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<v Speaker 1>amplification of the same business model, same monetization system, same

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<v Speaker 1>sort of weaknesses being exploited as Instagram, Facebook.

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<v Speaker 2>And they burned, and they burned billions and billions of

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<v Speaker 2>dollars to get there. It wasn't like that. People try

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<v Speaker 2>and I don't know why people would possibly think this,

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<v Speaker 2>but they frame Byte Dance some plucky upstart versus just

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<v Speaker 2>a massively funded Chinese juggernaut.

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<v Speaker 1>Actually much is why I actually use the word ecosystem

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<v Speaker 1>because this model itself is highly synergistic with companies growing

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<v Speaker 1>very fast. And why do they grow very fast Because

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<v Speaker 1>they want market share, they want to dominate the market.

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<v Speaker 1>But I also want data and how is that possible?

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<v Speaker 1>How can you grow so fast? Well, you get venture

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<v Speaker 1>capital or Microsoft to bankroll you, as in the case

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<v Speaker 1>of open ai, So you burn through a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>cash early on in order to get data dominance and

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<v Speaker 1>market dominance. And again it's not a pro competitive picture

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<v Speaker 1>that's emerging here.

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<v Speaker 2>I feel like General VII is something separate because with

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<v Speaker 2>that they well they don't have a business model yet,

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<v Speaker 2>they do not.

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<v Speaker 1>Have a business model. But you know what that does,

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<v Speaker 1>It makes it even more likely that we're gonna just

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<v Speaker 1>repeat the same sins of earlier social media. Look at

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<v Speaker 1>what is open ai doing. It's burning through a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of cash in order to acquire market share and data.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not monetizing through anything. And I think the most

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<v Speaker 1>likely cash cow ideas that are coming up we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to use generative AI for Internet search and we're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>take over the digital ad revenues. Well, that's more of

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<v Speaker 1>the same.

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<v Speaker 3>And I don't different conversation.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think that'll work, but it's Nevertheless, I can

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<v Speaker 2>see the idea.

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<v Speaker 3>It's funny, these incentives really have it.

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<v Speaker 2>I've never really thought about it before this conversation, but

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<v Speaker 2>it feels like digital advertising really did harm the tech

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<v Speaker 2>industry in that they found something very profitable that got

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<v Speaker 2>more profit ple without making the user's life better at all.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, Larry Page and say Gay Brinn, when they first

0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:10.640
<v Speaker 1>formed their company, said we don't want ads. That's not

0:14:10.760 --> 0:14:11.640
<v Speaker 1>like a good model.

0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:14.760
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's empathetical to a search problem.

0:14:14.760 --> 0:14:17.280
<v Speaker 1>At the moment, somebody came and gave them venture capital

0:14:17.280 --> 0:14:20.160
<v Speaker 1>money and said, but we do it so that you

0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:22.680
<v Speaker 1>can actually the lads.

0:14:22.760 --> 0:14:24.720
<v Speaker 3>Yes, what if you were super rich.

0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:27.240
<v Speaker 2>But it doesn't sound like this would kill the digital

0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:28.840
<v Speaker 2>ads industry, because if.

0:14:28.960 --> 0:14:30.960
<v Speaker 1>I don't think we should kill it either. I mean

0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:35.000
<v Speaker 1>I think again, if we created a monolith, a monoculture,

0:14:35.040 --> 0:14:40.760
<v Speaker 1>that wouldn't be good. If everything was on online, everything

0:14:40.880 --> 0:14:43.760
<v Speaker 1>was based on subscription, that wouldn't be a good model either.

0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:49.320
<v Speaker 2>So you want a variety, but so well is more

0:14:49.360 --> 0:14:52.120
<v Speaker 2>operational level. I'm guessing that this would also have to

0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:56.760
<v Speaker 2>have some way of cutting through things like if people

0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:59.240
<v Speaker 2>set up subsidiaries to try and pass off the tax

0:14:59.280 --> 0:15:01.040
<v Speaker 2>as well. You would have to make sure that there

0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:03.479
<v Speaker 2>was a way around.

0:15:02.720 --> 0:15:06.240
<v Speaker 1>You know. That's why this is not a sort of

0:15:06.280 --> 0:15:09.120
<v Speaker 1>a graduated tax that is easier to gain. But if

0:15:09.200 --> 0:15:11.400
<v Speaker 1>you know five hundred million, you know it's like a

0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:14.440
<v Speaker 1>very small amount of money. So you just set a

0:15:14.520 --> 0:15:17.880
<v Speaker 1>minimum like that, perhaps a little bit more so that

0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:20.480
<v Speaker 1>the really small companies are not burdened by it. We

0:15:20.520 --> 0:15:23.720
<v Speaker 1>know one problem, for example, with the European GDPR is

0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:27.240
<v Speaker 1>that once you put a regulation like that, the burden

0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:29.840
<v Speaker 1>is heavier on smaller companies, and so it actually it's

0:15:29.840 --> 0:15:32.280
<v Speaker 1>a competitive advantage for the large platforms that you don't

0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:32.800
<v Speaker 1>want to do that.

0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:36.680
<v Speaker 2>But I think five hundred million would actually that would

0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:40.120
<v Speaker 2>make a very healthy market for smaller companies.

0:15:39.960 --> 0:15:42.440
<v Speaker 1>Which is great. We want more smaller companies as well.

0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:45.600
<v Speaker 2>But wouldn't I think that this would help with the

0:15:45.600 --> 0:15:48.480
<v Speaker 2>problem a great deal. But don't we also need something

0:15:48.480 --> 0:15:51.800
<v Speaker 2>to do with the algorithms themselves. Because I feel you

0:15:51.800 --> 0:15:54.400
<v Speaker 2>could do this and it would solve some problems. It

0:15:54.440 --> 0:15:57.880
<v Speaker 2>would begin incentivizing them in the right direction. Theoretically, yeah,

0:15:57.920 --> 0:16:00.720
<v Speaker 2>but you still have this problem of they wouldn't stop algorithm.

0:16:00.760 --> 0:16:05.400
<v Speaker 2>In fact, this might encourage them to be more algorithmically.

0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:05.960
<v Speaker 1>Absolutely, and that's why I don't think this is a

0:16:05.960 --> 0:16:12.640
<v Speaker 1>silver bullet, you know it. You need a range of policies.

0:16:13.440 --> 0:16:17.880
<v Speaker 1>But the hope is that at least such a policy

0:16:17.960 --> 0:16:23.000
<v Speaker 1>would create some push towards some platforms and products to

0:16:23.040 --> 0:16:26.160
<v Speaker 1>have better quality algorithms that don't trap you like that.

0:16:26.640 --> 0:16:29.960
<v Speaker 1>But for example, if we're talking about social media, we

0:16:29.960 --> 0:16:33.800
<v Speaker 1>should also be talking about repeal or relaxation of Section

0:16:33.880 --> 0:16:39.000
<v Speaker 1>two thirty of the Digital Acts, so that you know,

0:16:39.640 --> 0:16:44.960
<v Speaker 1>companies that algorithmically boost content cannot then say, well, you know,

0:16:45.000 --> 0:16:47.240
<v Speaker 1>this is not our speech, this is somebody else's thing

0:16:47.400 --> 0:16:49.400
<v Speaker 1>that we have nothing to do with it. So there

0:16:49.440 --> 0:16:51.760
<v Speaker 1>are some details there that we have to think about.

0:16:51.800 --> 0:16:54.760
<v Speaker 1>And I think Section two thirty, which was written in

0:16:54.800 --> 0:16:57.960
<v Speaker 1>a different age in the nineteen nineties, is definitely not

0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:01.360
<v Speaker 1>up for dealing with issues algorithmic boosty.

0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:04.480
<v Speaker 2>And debating Section two thirty a side, because that is

0:17:04.520 --> 0:17:08.240
<v Speaker 2>also a separate conversation. It does feel like we have

0:17:08.440 --> 0:17:11.879
<v Speaker 2>just kind of not given tech companies much responsibility for

0:17:11.920 --> 0:17:12.440
<v Speaker 2>what they're doing.

0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:16.520
<v Speaker 1>No exactly, just that's the main reason why I want

0:17:16.520 --> 0:17:19.480
<v Speaker 1>to have a conversation about Section two thirty because it

0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:25.000
<v Speaker 1>can't be optimal that that corporations that are arguably the

0:17:25.080 --> 0:17:27.840
<v Speaker 1>largest and the most powerful humanity has ever seen can

0:17:27.880 --> 0:17:30.160
<v Speaker 1>then wash off their hands and say we're not responsible

0:17:30.200 --> 0:17:32.119
<v Speaker 1>for anything that happens on our platforms.

0:17:32.680 --> 0:17:36.679
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it feels with two thirty and I am not

0:17:36.760 --> 0:17:38.480
<v Speaker 2>as well read as I should be about it, but

0:17:39.000 --> 0:17:42.200
<v Speaker 2>it feels as if that responsibility side is the real

0:17:42.359 --> 0:17:45.560
<v Speaker 2>niggling issue but also the most thorny because on some

0:17:45.720 --> 0:17:49.119
<v Speaker 2>level it makes sense with social media platforms that they

0:17:49.160 --> 0:17:52.040
<v Speaker 2>should be able to say we're not responsible for all

0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:54.760
<v Speaker 2>the posts, and if they had to be, they will.

0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:58.560
<v Speaker 1>Absolutely And look, I think free speeches of major issue.

0:17:59.080 --> 0:18:02.280
<v Speaker 1>I am worried about erosion of free speech, but you know,

0:18:02.760 --> 0:18:05.600
<v Speaker 1>I'm also not like a one hundred percent free speech absolutist.

0:18:05.680 --> 0:18:07.160
<v Speaker 1>I think we have to balance it, and the way

0:18:07.160 --> 0:18:09.880
<v Speaker 1>that I would suggest as is again, so now we're

0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:14.240
<v Speaker 1>changing topic a little bit. Second two thirty is, you know,

0:18:14.320 --> 0:18:17.800
<v Speaker 1>subject to whatever legal requirements there are on you know,

0:18:19.320 --> 0:18:24.040
<v Speaker 1>abusive content, et cetera. If you post something on Instagram

0:18:24.160 --> 0:18:30.080
<v Speaker 1>or Facebook and the company doesn't algorithmically promote it, then.

0:18:30.720 --> 0:18:31.920
<v Speaker 3>It's completely right.

0:18:33.040 --> 0:18:36.560
<v Speaker 1>It's there. It's my speech. If my friends find out

0:18:36.600 --> 0:18:38.680
<v Speaker 1>about it, they can go and look at it. If

0:18:38.680 --> 0:18:42.720
<v Speaker 1>somebody stumbles on it, that's fine. But algorithmic boosting is

0:18:42.760 --> 0:18:45.320
<v Speaker 1>like New York Times putting you on their front page.

0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:47.520
<v Speaker 1>We can't say New York Times is putting you on

0:18:47.560 --> 0:18:49.280
<v Speaker 1>your front page, and you can say all sorts of

0:18:49.600 --> 0:18:52.600
<v Speaker 1>lies and crazy things, and that's just freedom of wealth.

0:18:53.560 --> 0:18:55.600
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, okay, yeah, now I know what you mean.

0:18:55.480 --> 0:19:00.960
<v Speaker 1>Though, if you have a more more preferred newspaper that example.

0:19:00.640 --> 0:19:02.520
<v Speaker 2>No, no, no, but I know what you mean. It almost,

0:19:02.680 --> 0:19:04.960
<v Speaker 2>and it seems like the problem is that you're saying

0:19:05.040 --> 0:19:06.960
<v Speaker 2>is it isn't two thirty itself. It's the fact that

0:19:07.000 --> 0:19:10.320
<v Speaker 2>the algorithms boost yeah, these particular things.

0:19:10.920 --> 0:19:13.720
<v Speaker 1>Thirty was fine for the age it was written where

0:19:13.960 --> 0:19:18.520
<v Speaker 1>nobody could could have understood the onslaught of algorithmic boosting

0:19:18.560 --> 0:19:20.400
<v Speaker 1>promotion and manipulation that would come.

0:19:20.800 --> 0:19:23.240
<v Speaker 2>And it feels like it's an incentive problem that we

0:19:23.400 --> 0:19:28.800
<v Speaker 2>just it's almost that platforms should either move away from

0:19:28.800 --> 0:19:32.480
<v Speaker 2>the algorithm model, because if you because the amendments section

0:19:32.520 --> 0:19:34.280
<v Speaker 2>two thirty that just says it should go away kind

0:19:34.320 --> 0:19:36.280
<v Speaker 2>of doesn't sit right with me. I don't think you should.

0:19:36.480 --> 0:19:39.480
<v Speaker 2>It would make platforms like WordPress impossible to use, or

0:19:39.520 --> 0:19:42.440
<v Speaker 2>like blogging platforms, but the idea of what they promote

0:19:42.480 --> 0:19:43.400
<v Speaker 2>being more intentional.

0:19:43.520 --> 0:19:46.760
<v Speaker 1>Absolutely that I actually reallyze this rule that I suggested

0:19:46.920 --> 0:19:52.240
<v Speaker 1>completely protects WordPress. WordPress doesn't promote, right, So this sort

0:19:52.280 --> 0:19:55.440
<v Speaker 1>of reformed two thirty is completely fine in that respect.

0:19:55.720 --> 0:19:58.439
<v Speaker 2>So as far as this fifty percent tax, do we

0:19:58.480 --> 0:20:00.919
<v Speaker 2>have any kind of historical press to something like this

0:20:01.040 --> 0:20:01.480
<v Speaker 2>being done?

0:20:02.560 --> 0:20:07.240
<v Speaker 1>And that's why, you know, am I sure fifty percent

0:20:07.280 --> 0:20:10.480
<v Speaker 1>is the right level? Absolutely not per thirty.

0:20:11.119 --> 0:20:12.840
<v Speaker 3>But I think fifty is great.

0:20:13.880 --> 0:20:14.159
<v Speaker 1>Thank you.

0:20:14.640 --> 0:20:16.960
<v Speaker 2>Well, Because the thing is, the way I look at

0:20:17.000 --> 0:20:21.040
<v Speaker 2>it is these companies are so adept to avoiding responsibility,

0:20:21.600 --> 0:20:24.959
<v Speaker 2>and they're so unwilling to change their ways and so

0:20:25.280 --> 0:20:28.919
<v Speaker 2>unwilling to be responsible with what they're doing, that it

0:20:28.960 --> 0:20:30.480
<v Speaker 2>needs to be like this. And I'm sure that if

0:20:30.480 --> 0:20:33.320
<v Speaker 2>this actually got anywhere near a government, they would have

0:20:33.480 --> 0:20:34.879
<v Speaker 2>the world's biggest tantrum.

0:20:35.359 --> 0:20:37.720
<v Speaker 3>But I feel like we need stuff.

0:20:38.119 --> 0:20:41.280
<v Speaker 1>It needs to be a shock to the system, absolutely.

0:20:41.080 --> 0:20:44.480
<v Speaker 2>And I think that well, actually maybe that's the question.

0:20:44.640 --> 0:20:48.560
<v Speaker 2>How practical would this be to actually implement?

0:20:49.240 --> 0:20:50.919
<v Speaker 1>Well, Well, it depends on what you mean by that.

0:20:51.840 --> 0:20:54.639
<v Speaker 2>Well, I mean, how how hard would it be to

0:20:54.760 --> 0:20:58.440
<v Speaker 2>get to get this actually into existence with the government

0:20:58.520 --> 0:20:59.520
<v Speaker 2>able to levy that tax.

0:21:00.200 --> 0:21:02.800
<v Speaker 1>It would be extremely hard because of the lobbying, as

0:21:02.800 --> 0:21:05.399
<v Speaker 1>you pointed out, But if there was agreement, if the

0:21:05.520 --> 0:21:08.600
<v Speaker 1>Chinese government wanted to do it right, they could do

0:21:08.600 --> 0:21:12.600
<v Speaker 1>it overnight. It's it's all out there. The digital ad

0:21:12.640 --> 0:21:16.359
<v Speaker 1>revenue is there, it's measured, you know all. And the

0:21:16.440 --> 0:21:20.080
<v Speaker 1>flat tax is very easy to implement. You could do

0:21:20.119 --> 0:21:26.720
<v Speaker 1>it at source when you know advertisers, companies pay for advertising.

0:21:26.720 --> 0:21:28.520
<v Speaker 1>You could do it in many different ways, so it's

0:21:28.800 --> 0:21:32.600
<v Speaker 1>very easy, you know. We it's a version of variety

0:21:32.640 --> 0:21:35.679
<v Speaker 1>of VAT like at volume taxes. We have them in

0:21:35.760 --> 0:21:39.840
<v Speaker 1>under much more complicated situations when there is much lower

0:21:39.960 --> 0:21:43.440
<v Speaker 1>quality data about what's going on. You know, many middle

0:21:43.480 --> 0:21:46.000
<v Speaker 1>income countries have a very complex sales tax or a

0:21:46.080 --> 0:21:46.840
<v Speaker 1>VAT tax.

0:21:47.200 --> 0:21:50.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and it almost feels that you could have a

0:21:50.040 --> 0:21:52.800
<v Speaker 2>little fun with it as well. Maybe you could do

0:21:52.920 --> 0:21:55.119
<v Speaker 2>this fifty percent tax and freed it directly into some

0:21:55.160 --> 0:21:58.159
<v Speaker 2>sort of national venture fund. It would end up funding

0:21:58.160 --> 0:22:02.239
<v Speaker 2>the feure. It feels as if the as go like

0:22:02.440 --> 0:22:05.080
<v Speaker 2>on a larger scale, it feels like governments are just

0:22:05.880 --> 0:22:09.480
<v Speaker 2>twenty years behind technology. Not even putting aside even Section

0:22:09.520 --> 0:22:12.400
<v Speaker 2>two thirty. It feels like we should have an EPA

0:22:12.640 --> 0:22:15.119
<v Speaker 2>or an FDA for data. It feels like we should

0:22:15.119 --> 0:22:18.160
<v Speaker 2>have ways of Actually we don't know how these algorithms work,

0:22:18.160 --> 0:22:20.560
<v Speaker 2>and it just feels a little crazy to me.

0:22:21.080 --> 0:22:23.159
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. Absolutely, But the way I would say it is,

0:22:24.200 --> 0:22:27.280
<v Speaker 1>I'm not sure that I would say they are twenty

0:22:27.359 --> 0:22:29.320
<v Speaker 1>years behind in terms of knowledge.

0:22:29.359 --> 0:22:31.840
<v Speaker 3>I actually, oh, not knowledge, just legislation.

0:22:32.160 --> 0:22:37.639
<v Speaker 1>Legislation. Yeah. So, like a completely different but related topic

0:22:37.840 --> 0:22:43.400
<v Speaker 1>is we actually need an infrastructure for data markets, right,

0:22:44.359 --> 0:22:49.520
<v Speaker 1>so you know, I think everybody says data is going

0:22:49.560 --> 0:22:52.720
<v Speaker 1>to be one of the most important factors of production

0:22:52.840 --> 0:22:57.080
<v Speaker 1>for the future, more important than land. Imagine that I

0:22:57.200 --> 0:23:01.640
<v Speaker 1>told you that today land that is still pretty relevant

0:23:01.640 --> 0:23:04.000
<v Speaker 1>for many businesses. It's up for grabs. You can just

0:23:04.040 --> 0:23:06.440
<v Speaker 1>go and get whatever piece of land you want and

0:23:06.960 --> 0:23:09.560
<v Speaker 1>you don't have to pay for it. You know, that

0:23:10.000 --> 0:23:12.680
<v Speaker 1>tragedy of the commons is well understood from history. It

0:23:12.680 --> 0:23:13.640
<v Speaker 1>will be disastrous.

0:23:14.160 --> 0:23:16.000
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's just the wild West.

0:23:16.160 --> 0:23:20.320
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's wild West. Nobody produces high quality data, Nobody

0:23:20.359 --> 0:23:23.040
<v Speaker 1>gets compensated for the data that they have, and it

0:23:23.200 --> 0:23:27.400
<v Speaker 1>encourages you know, the monetization that model that we talked

0:23:27.400 --> 0:23:29.960
<v Speaker 1>about where you actually sweep people's data without their permission

0:23:30.000 --> 0:23:32.040
<v Speaker 1>or without their understanding, and you try to monetize it

0:23:32.040 --> 0:23:50.200
<v Speaker 1>by digital app So a complementary thing is we think

0:23:50.200 --> 0:23:52.359
<v Speaker 1>about how how is it that we can have a

0:23:52.440 --> 0:23:57.399
<v Speaker 1>system where data producers are encouraged to produce higher quality

0:23:57.440 --> 0:24:00.200
<v Speaker 1>data so that perhaps, you know, next version of a

0:24:00.280 --> 0:24:03.760
<v Speaker 1>large language model learns not from Reddit, but learns from

0:24:03.840 --> 0:24:06.639
<v Speaker 1>high quality, dominant the domain relevant expertise.

0:24:07.359 --> 0:24:10.639
<v Speaker 3>I think in that case, Hey, I think in that case.

0:24:10.760 --> 0:24:13.880
<v Speaker 2>I'm not sure I agree, just because large language models

0:24:13.920 --> 0:24:16.639
<v Speaker 2>getting higher quality data is a pro like how you

0:24:16.680 --> 0:24:19.280
<v Speaker 2>build them, would like it? Just higher quality data would

0:24:19.280 --> 0:24:21.359
<v Speaker 2>just be they still need more. But I get what

0:24:21.440 --> 0:24:23.760
<v Speaker 2>you mean that if these companies were incentivized to actually

0:24:23.800 --> 0:24:26.159
<v Speaker 2>have good data and provide good services with the data,

0:24:26.480 --> 0:24:28.959
<v Speaker 2>that would be better. Because that's the thing I'm not.

0:24:29.080 --> 0:24:32.320
<v Speaker 2>I don't love digital targeting. I don't love any of it.

0:24:32.400 --> 0:24:35.120
<v Speaker 2>But man, if they have all this data, why are

0:24:35.119 --> 0:24:38.160
<v Speaker 2>all their services so impersonal? They don't feel like they're

0:24:38.200 --> 0:24:38.960
<v Speaker 2>for us?

0:24:39.280 --> 0:24:41.360
<v Speaker 1>And why does Microsoft word always crash? Yes?

0:24:41.400 --> 0:24:45.240
<v Speaker 2>I know that, but that one, that one's it doesn't matter.

0:24:45.400 --> 0:24:48.840
<v Speaker 2>They have the dot doc and dot doc x model.

0:24:48.960 --> 0:24:52.280
<v Speaker 2>They have a tiny little kind of monopoly now though

0:24:52.280 --> 0:24:54.680
<v Speaker 2>they were various sense trust actions have to change.

0:24:54.880 --> 0:24:57.200
<v Speaker 1>Let me actually, let me actually talk push back a

0:24:57.240 --> 0:25:00.920
<v Speaker 1>little bit on generative AI. Okay, because I think your

0:25:01.000 --> 0:25:05.760
<v Speaker 1>statement makes sense. If you buy in that generative AI

0:25:06.200 --> 0:25:13.200
<v Speaker 1>is most productively developed in the form of general purpose

0:25:13.320 --> 0:25:19.879
<v Speaker 1>human like chatbots, they will need like huge amount of

0:25:19.960 --> 0:25:22.720
<v Speaker 1>data because next word prediction is very very inefficient and

0:25:22.800 --> 0:25:26.919
<v Speaker 1>you need to imitate humans and variety of circumstances. But

0:25:27.000 --> 0:25:30.040
<v Speaker 1>imagine that we use generative to AI in a very

0:25:30.040 --> 0:25:34.520
<v Speaker 1>domain specific way. You know, I want to know what

0:25:35.240 --> 0:25:40.240
<v Speaker 1>drug creates, what side effects in conjunction with other drugs, right, Well,

0:25:40.320 --> 0:25:43.760
<v Speaker 1>for that, I don't need my generative AI tool to

0:25:44.040 --> 0:25:47.080
<v Speaker 1>communicate with me in you know, human like fashion or

0:25:47.119 --> 0:25:51.360
<v Speaker 1>write Shakespearean sonnets. I just need some very specific domain expertise.

0:25:51.400 --> 0:25:53.600
<v Speaker 1>But that high quality data is actually not out.

0:25:53.400 --> 0:25:55.240
<v Speaker 3>There, and I fully agree with that.

0:25:55.880 --> 0:25:59.880
<v Speaker 2>And smaller language models focus language moddles does make sense.

0:26:00.080 --> 0:26:02.600
<v Speaker 2>But I think we are actually agreeing because this is

0:26:02.600 --> 0:26:06.440
<v Speaker 2>an incentive problem. The reason open AI isn't really focused

0:26:06.440 --> 0:26:08.879
<v Speaker 2>on that is because it doesn't make that much money.

0:26:09.359 --> 0:26:11.560
<v Speaker 1>Well, open AI itself is not making a lot of money.

0:26:11.640 --> 0:26:15.200
<v Speaker 1>They're not liking No, I think I think they are

0:26:15.240 --> 0:26:19.080
<v Speaker 1>not focused on that because A, if you want to

0:26:19.119 --> 0:26:22.560
<v Speaker 1>get big, very very fast and collect a lot of data,

0:26:23.040 --> 0:26:27.240
<v Speaker 1>domain specific models are not going to work. So creating

0:26:27.320 --> 0:26:30.960
<v Speaker 1>hype around something that sounds very intelligent is a much

0:26:31.000 --> 0:26:33.840
<v Speaker 1>better tool for doing that. And second, I think in

0:26:33.880 --> 0:26:39.680
<v Speaker 1>the industry is still in an unhealthy way, in my opinion,

0:26:40.440 --> 0:26:45.680
<v Speaker 1>preoccupied with artificial general intelligence right, human like intelligent, even

0:26:45.720 --> 0:26:47.239
<v Speaker 1>if that's not what we need, even if that's not

0:26:47.280 --> 0:26:50.520
<v Speaker 1>what's feasible, even if that's got a lot of downsides.

0:26:51.200 --> 0:26:54.080
<v Speaker 1>So that's why they don't, in my opinion, pay sufficient

0:26:54.119 --> 0:26:56.720
<v Speaker 1>attention to these domain specific expertise models.

0:26:56.920 --> 0:26:59.960
<v Speaker 2>So if for you, I actually agree, But also then

0:27:00.000 --> 0:27:02.960
<v Speaker 2>and that is an economics problem, that is a these

0:27:03.000 --> 0:27:06.120
<v Speaker 2>companies are incentivized to grow at all costs, to get

0:27:06.160 --> 0:27:09.159
<v Speaker 2>as big as possible. Is what you're suggesting that they

0:27:09.160 --> 0:27:10.080
<v Speaker 2>shouldn't it is.

0:27:10.280 --> 0:27:12.560
<v Speaker 1>It is not just an economics problem, but it has

0:27:12.560 --> 0:27:16.679
<v Speaker 1>an important economic leg If we did not have venture

0:27:16.800 --> 0:27:20.439
<v Speaker 1>capital be so important, this model would not have gotten

0:27:20.480 --> 0:27:21.040
<v Speaker 1>off the ground.

0:27:21.760 --> 0:27:24.160
<v Speaker 2>So how do we push back on the VC model?

0:27:24.200 --> 0:27:28.000
<v Speaker 2>How do we actually make technology work without that model,

0:27:28.000 --> 0:27:30.800
<v Speaker 2>because I agree it's the growth of all costs. Build

0:27:30.800 --> 0:27:33.400
<v Speaker 2>as big as possible, then IPO and everyone gets rich

0:27:33.400 --> 0:27:34.280
<v Speaker 2>other than the user.

0:27:35.440 --> 0:27:37.520
<v Speaker 3>Well, what are the alternatives?

0:27:37.680 --> 0:27:40.880
<v Speaker 1>I don't know. I mean, I am not so much

0:27:40.880 --> 0:27:43.080
<v Speaker 1>of an interventionist that I'm going to say, you know,

0:27:43.320 --> 0:27:47.680
<v Speaker 1>you should tax VC as well. But I think one

0:27:48.200 --> 0:27:53.000
<v Speaker 1>thing that encourages the VC grow at all cost model

0:27:53.080 --> 0:27:56.120
<v Speaker 1>is that we don't have any anti trust right there

0:27:56.200 --> 0:28:04.000
<v Speaker 1>was very strong anti trust and implementation. Then becoming so

0:28:04.000 --> 0:28:07.440
<v Speaker 1>big wouldn't be so attractive, and you wouldn't be able

0:28:07.480 --> 0:28:10.040
<v Speaker 1>to acquire all your competitors in the process as well,

0:28:10.080 --> 0:28:12.280
<v Speaker 1>which is a very important part of this get very big,

0:28:12.359 --> 0:28:20.240
<v Speaker 1>very quick. So I think our big failure of you know,

0:28:20.359 --> 0:28:24.840
<v Speaker 1>upholding existing antitrust laws and introducing new anti trust laws

0:28:25.119 --> 0:28:28.439
<v Speaker 1>appropriate for the digital age, I think has contributed to

0:28:28.480 --> 0:28:29.800
<v Speaker 1>this problem.

0:28:29.920 --> 0:28:32.879
<v Speaker 2>Is there a way of incentivizing vcs? So actually this

0:28:33.000 --> 0:28:34.640
<v Speaker 2>is how we are. This is the final question, because

0:28:34.640 --> 0:28:36.879
<v Speaker 2>you might actually have an answer here. How do we

0:28:36.960 --> 0:28:41.719
<v Speaker 2>incentivize venture capital and the startup industry to start investing

0:28:41.800 --> 0:28:45.080
<v Speaker 2>at the earlier stage because a big fund just gave

0:28:45.240 --> 0:28:49.840
<v Speaker 2>back a chunk of their fund because they were not

0:28:49.880 --> 0:28:53.200
<v Speaker 2>finding as many opportunities in the late stage, and it

0:28:53.480 --> 0:28:55.560
<v Speaker 2>like most of the money goes into that late stage.

0:28:55.600 --> 0:28:57.760
<v Speaker 2>How do we incentivize that.

0:28:57.760 --> 0:29:02.640
<v Speaker 1>That's a much harder problem, because even well qualified vcs

0:29:04.040 --> 0:29:07.800
<v Speaker 1>are not going to have an easy time recognizing a

0:29:07.880 --> 0:29:10.760
<v Speaker 1>very promising product when it's in the garage stage. Right.

0:29:11.640 --> 0:29:16.240
<v Speaker 1>But and this brings another, you know, set of issues.

0:29:17.040 --> 0:29:25.800
<v Speaker 1>The fact that we tax capital so lightly contributes to this. Again,

0:29:25.840 --> 0:29:28.880
<v Speaker 1>we're subsidizing vcs because if you make your money via

0:29:28.960 --> 0:29:34.880
<v Speaker 1>vcs as sort of investment on your capital, you pay

0:29:34.960 --> 0:29:38.560
<v Speaker 1>very little tax. You know, if you are you know,

0:29:38.600 --> 0:29:43.040
<v Speaker 1>a tech billionaire, I want name names, you don't even

0:29:43.080 --> 0:29:46.560
<v Speaker 1>pay yourself a salary. You keep on borrowing money from

0:29:46.760 --> 0:29:52.120
<v Speaker 1>venture capitals or other specialized financial vehicles, and you pay

0:29:52.160 --> 0:29:54.560
<v Speaker 1>yourself out of that. Everything is capital income. You pay

0:29:54.600 --> 0:30:00.880
<v Speaker 1>minimal taxes. So our tax system, already a big contributor

0:30:00.920 --> 0:30:05.440
<v Speaker 1>to inequality, actually also distorts the digital landscape. So one

0:30:05.600 --> 0:30:08.800
<v Speaker 1>simple thing, again, which is probably even less likely to

0:30:08.800 --> 0:30:12.240
<v Speaker 1>be implemented in our current polarized environment, is let's tax

0:30:12.320 --> 0:30:15.960
<v Speaker 1>capital and labor at a flat rate the same or

0:30:15.960 --> 0:30:17.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, you can act whether a progressity you want,

0:30:17.920 --> 0:30:20.800
<v Speaker 1>but you do not distinguish capital and labor income. If

0:30:20.840 --> 0:30:23.880
<v Speaker 1>you're going to tax labor income at thirty percent tax

0:30:23.920 --> 0:30:24.920
<v Speaker 1>capital at thirty percent.

0:30:25.600 --> 0:30:27.000
<v Speaker 3>I agree on that one.

0:30:27.400 --> 0:30:29.640
<v Speaker 2>It just feels like it would be great if there

0:30:29.680 --> 0:30:32.800
<v Speaker 2>was a way of just almost because you're talking a

0:30:32.800 --> 0:30:35.520
<v Speaker 2>lot about taxation such and I agree that we need

0:30:35.560 --> 0:30:38.360
<v Speaker 2>those controls, But is there a way to incentivize them

0:30:38.400 --> 0:30:42.600
<v Speaker 2>to put more money earlier make more risky bets. I'm

0:30:42.600 --> 0:30:45.920
<v Speaker 2>not saying a deduction, because that would be crazy, but

0:30:45.960 --> 0:30:48.800
<v Speaker 2>it feels like that would also solve, in part in

0:30:49.000 --> 0:30:52.040
<v Speaker 2>concert with these taxes, a way of getting that money

0:30:52.240 --> 0:30:53.560
<v Speaker 2>into the early ecosystem.

0:30:53.720 --> 0:30:57.560
<v Speaker 1>There may be, but I don't know exactly. We should

0:30:57.600 --> 0:30:59.840
<v Speaker 1>think more about it, but there is an alternative solution

0:31:00.480 --> 0:31:04.840
<v Speaker 1>yet another policy proposal, as we fund a federal agency

0:31:04.840 --> 0:31:09.280
<v Speaker 1>on AI which is tasked both by communicating and developing

0:31:09.320 --> 0:31:13.240
<v Speaker 1>best standards on things like privacy data you know AI standards,

0:31:13.240 --> 0:31:16.960
<v Speaker 1>security safety, but also has deep enough pockets that it

0:31:17.000 --> 0:31:20.880
<v Speaker 1>can play that incubator role for especially for technologies that

0:31:20.920 --> 0:31:23.239
<v Speaker 1>are deemed to be socially beneficial. So if we have

0:31:23.280 --> 0:31:27.240
<v Speaker 1>technologies that actually protect in users of privacy and enable

0:31:27.640 --> 0:31:30.480
<v Speaker 1>users to make better decisions. That's the kind of thing

0:31:30.520 --> 0:31:33.320
<v Speaker 1>that the government should put money in early on. Some

0:31:33.360 --> 0:31:34.960
<v Speaker 1>of it will go to waste, some of it will

0:31:35.000 --> 0:31:37.440
<v Speaker 1>go bankrupt. But if a few of them are successful,

0:31:37.480 --> 0:31:40.240
<v Speaker 1>that's great. And if the alternative is that the vcs

0:31:40.240 --> 0:31:43.320
<v Speaker 1>are going to develop the technologies that are most manipulative,

0:31:43.640 --> 0:31:45.880
<v Speaker 1>there is even more reason for putting this money.

0:31:46.520 --> 0:31:48.640
<v Speaker 2>Thorne, thank you so much for joining me again. It's

0:31:48.640 --> 0:31:49.520
<v Speaker 2>been such a pleasure.

0:31:49.800 --> 0:31:52.560
<v Speaker 1>Of course, this was my pleasure. Thank you for being

0:31:52.600 --> 0:31:55.480
<v Speaker 1>interested in these issues and such by having such a

0:31:55.480 --> 0:31:56.320
<v Speaker 1>great conversation.

0:31:56.680 --> 0:32:07.800
<v Speaker 3>Thanks so much. Thank you for listening to Better Offline.

0:32:07.920 --> 0:32:10.360
<v Speaker 2>The editor and composer of the Better Offline theme song

0:32:10.440 --> 0:32:13.080
<v Speaker 2>is Mattersowski. You can check out more of his music

0:32:13.080 --> 0:32:16.760
<v Speaker 2>and audio projects at Matasowski dot com, M A T

0:32:16.760 --> 0:32:21.200
<v Speaker 2>T O s O W s ki dot com. You

0:32:21.240 --> 0:32:23.720
<v Speaker 2>can email me at easy at Better Offline dot com,

0:32:23.840 --> 0:32:26.120
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0:32:26.200 --> 0:32:29.520
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0:32:36.880 --> 0:32:37.280
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0:32:37.280 --> 0:32:40.960
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0:32:41.080 --> 0:32:43.920
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