Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast. Make sure
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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Buck Brief. Our friend Ned Ryan in
Speaker 2: the mix right now. He's the founder and CEO of
Speaker 2: American Majority.
Speaker 1: Ned.
Speaker 2: Always good to see you, man, Thanks for being here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely good to be with you. Buck.
Speaker 2: So I know you amidst all of the oh my gosh,
Speaker 2: what's going to happen? And Trump is facing all these trials,
Speaker 2: you seem to be pretty confident that not only will
Speaker 2: they fail to derail Trump legally, but that also the
Speaker 2: public reaction to this might be more favorable to Trump
Speaker 2: than the Democrats realize. Tell me more.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so it really started dawning on me. I'll share
Speaker 1: a little bit of an incident that took place. I
Speaker 1: was golfing with my father in law, who not really political,
Speaker 1: I would argue, not really a big fan of Trump's.
Speaker 1: As we were golfing, he said, do you know, it's
Speaker 1: really started to dawn on me? So I would consider
Speaker 1: him Buck a normy, right, a normy. He doesn't really
Speaker 1: follow politics. He votes, He's a pretty frequent voter. Not
Speaker 1: the biggest fan of Trump, but all of a sudden
Speaker 1: it's dawning on him that what's taking place with all
Speaker 1: of these different lawsuits and charges being brought against Trump,
Speaker 1: there's no real basis to this. This is political lawfare.
Speaker 1: The basis of this is politics, trying to take out
Speaker 1: Biden's chief political opponent. And so he was sharing with
Speaker 1: me this conversation and more and more, I've been proposing
Speaker 1: a theory. There are a lot of fatalists out there
Speaker 1: that say one of these cases going to bring down Trump, right,
Speaker 1: that it's going to take him down, take him off
Speaker 1: the ballot, he will not be the nominee. I have
Speaker 1: proposed a theory that people need to look at the
Speaker 1: flip side of the coin and realize there might be
Speaker 1: a real benefit for Trump here when it breaks on
Speaker 1: the other normies out there that areld be voting in
Speaker 1: the fall elections. This is political lawfare. And I'm starting
Speaker 1: to see my theory play out pretty well. I think
Speaker 1: the Color out of case from the Supreme Court last week,
Speaker 1: I think it might go down nine to nothing.
Speaker 3: Buck.
Speaker 1: I don't think that it will. Obviously it's not gonna win,
Speaker 1: but I think it will be a definitive rebuke of Colorado.
Speaker 1: So there's one case gone, the Fanny Willis case in Georgia.
Speaker 1: I think that's imploding in front of our eyes in
Speaker 1: real time as we watch all this start to collapse.
Speaker 2: I think I think Fannie Willis thinks to Fannie Willis
Speaker 2: case is falling apart. I mean, I don't think that
Speaker 2: that's much up for debate.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and now we're starting to see reports coming out
Speaker 1: of from Breitbart that Bragg, Willis, and Smith we're all
Speaker 1: meeting with the White House to coordinate their lawsuits against Trump.
Speaker 1: As that starts to break into the public conscience, they're
Speaker 1: gonna it's going to be more and more people realizing, Yeah,
Speaker 1: there was no basis for this. I mean, this is
Speaker 1: literally a campaign tactic of the Biden White House to
Speaker 1: take out their chief political opponent, but legal basis to it.
Speaker 1: There really is no legal basis to anything that is
Speaker 1: taking place. And I think we're going to see more
Speaker 1: and more of these cases to fall apart as more
Speaker 1: pressure is put on them as we move into the
Speaker 1: spring and summer, and again during the summer, people going
Speaker 1: to go they're trying to take out chief political opponent
Speaker 1: with an abuse of the legal system. We're going to
Speaker 1: be voting for Trump, and I think you're going to
Speaker 1: see a surge surge for Trump in the spring and
Speaker 1: summer going into the rn C and DNC conventions.
Speaker 2: I like how you're thinking on this one. Do you
Speaker 2: see any any alarms going off for the people who
Speaker 2: pay attention to races and know what's happening in swing
Speaker 2: you know, swing district, Swing States. This third congressional in
Speaker 2: Long Island that we lost, I think there's a case
Speaker 2: you made that it just wasn't a strong candidate for
Speaker 2: the Santos seat. I know there'll be another election soon
Speaker 2: on this one, but you know, they they ran Trump,
Speaker 2: democracy stuff, abortion stuff, and a candidate who was, oh, yeah,
Speaker 2: I want to secure the border, right. I mean, all
Speaker 2: of a sudden, Democrats are starting to run people. Does
Speaker 2: that concern you that that may be the approach they
Speaker 2: take in a more national level.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, on the abortion issue. I mean I saw a
Speaker 1: play out in Virginia in our last year's elections, and
Speaker 1: a lot of Republicans ran away from the issue. If
Speaker 1: they had confronted it, those that did they won and
Speaker 1: what were very very narrow state legislative elections in Virginia.
Speaker 1: But you can't fight something with nothing, and I think
Speaker 1: Republicans have better start figuring out how they're going to
Speaker 1: be taking This abortion issue had on Glenn Youngkin here
Speaker 1: in Virginia went right at it buck and he proposed
Speaker 1: a fifteen week ban exceptions for the life of the mother,
Speaker 1: rape and incest. And it was actually, in what I
Speaker 1: consider a purple state, a pretty solid issue for Glenn Youngkin.
Speaker 1: So any Republicans that were running for the state legislature
Speaker 1: last year did pretty well. Those that ran away a
Speaker 1: lot of them lost. But my takeaway from this special
Speaker 1: election that just happened in New York was this, again
Speaker 1: some of the functional aspects of the elections in which
Speaker 1: Democrats got out and voted early, they voted by mail,
Speaker 1: and guess what happened on election day in some parts
Speaker 1: of district eight inches of snow. And I commented in
Speaker 1: a tweet or on X whatever we call it these
Speaker 1: days the day after this to me is another lesson
Speaker 1: for Republicans that they better learn coming into the fall elections.
Speaker 3: Vote early.
Speaker 1: If you don't want to vote by mail, go vote
Speaker 1: in person early before election day. Again, there's so many
Speaker 1: unforeseen things happen like a snowstorm on election day. Let's
Speaker 1: get our votes in. And that's one of the things
Speaker 1: I'm really really working out. But that gotten some good news.
Speaker 1: We're going to get some good funding for American Majority Action.
Speaker 1: We are going to be doing absentee ballot generation, absentee
Speaker 1: ballot chase, and some key presidential battleground states to really
Speaker 1: get Republicans to understand we've got to get eighty plus
Speaker 1: percent of those absentee ballots in. Vote early, get your
Speaker 1: vote in, thank it, do not wait until election day.
Speaker 1: Let's start really getting that into our mindset. And if
Speaker 1: we can do that, if we can get to eighty
Speaker 1: plus percent of absentee ballots coming in, I like our chances.
Speaker 1: But I will point out one thing that's a concern
Speaker 1: to me. I know there's some lawsuits that are fighting this.
Speaker 1: We have to look at Arizona. There's an issue in
Speaker 1: which non citizens are getting ballots for federal elections. The
Speaker 1: Left's not going to sit there and go, oh gosh,
Speaker 1: you know, we've got a Grand Paul dementia in the
Speaker 1: White House. You know, we're all these different things. Trump's
Speaker 1: going to win. Oh well, now, They're going to be
Speaker 1: playing all sorts of games, and I think it's incummon
Speaker 1: upon Republicans to be making sure we stay ahead of
Speaker 1: the curve this time, change our tactics, but be on
Speaker 1: top of the legal law fair in regards of how
Speaker 1: these elections are being held, especially in the presidential background states.
Speaker 2: I totally agree. So I'm glad that someone's watching this
Speaker 2: who has the ear ears of people that are in
Speaker 2: Trump's orbit, including Trump himself, because I believe, very strongly
Speaker 2: ned this is going to be a tight battle no
Speaker 2: matter what who is. People argue with me about, oh,
Speaker 2: but Biden. So I'm like, I don't care how old
Speaker 2: Biden is. I don't care how decrepit he is. They
Speaker 2: they show up on election day with you know, ninety
Speaker 2: seven percent of what they need to win, you know,
Speaker 2: I mean, this is the problem.
Speaker 1: But but I would say this book, it's because it's
Speaker 1: not really about persuading voters anymore. It's how many ballots
Speaker 1: are in the universe that they've created that they can
Speaker 1: actually collect. It has nothing to do with persuasion. It
Speaker 1: has how many ballots are you going are you going
Speaker 1: to collect?
Speaker 3: Well?
Speaker 2: The vote machinery basically right, it's it's understanding exactly.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean you can put up a vegetable
Speaker 1: which quite frankly twenty two and they won, right, So
Speaker 1: it's not even necessary about the quality of the cannon.
Speaker 1: And I keep on reminding people, Yeah, some of these
Speaker 1: polls look really good Trump versus Biden. I consider them
Speaker 1: a mirage because when push comes to shove, it's he's
Speaker 1: not winning North Carolina by eight points, He's not going
Speaker 1: to win Arizona by five. You know, some of these
Speaker 1: numbers are going to shrink and it's going to get
Speaker 1: much tighter. We better have our functional aspect of collecting
Speaker 1: ballots in place, clicking on all cylinders, because you know
Speaker 1: they will.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, then we'll come back into this in a second.
Speaker 2: I want to ask you how you think things are
Speaker 2: looking on the on the Senate side. This couldn't come
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Speaker 2: your livelihood and your rights. Ned how are we looking
Speaker 2: for the Senate?
Speaker 3: I'm optimistic, I am.
Speaker 1: I mean you look at the pickup opportunities in Montana,
Speaker 1: West Virginia, Ohio. You know, I think, you know, I
Speaker 1: even think Hogan in Maryland, Governor Hogan, who I'm not
Speaker 1: a fan of it all, but he's running for the
Speaker 1: Senate in Maryland.
Speaker 2: Can I ask you this? And I'm not trying to
Speaker 2: get your new troubles and Tho's a little controversy about
Speaker 2: this in some other places recently, with some folks saying things,
Speaker 2: is Hogan the best we can hope for in Maryland?
Speaker 3: Though?
Speaker 2: I mean, I feel like Maryland is a communist state.
Speaker 2: So are we going to do better than the weakest
Speaker 2: Republican of all Republicans? I don't think so.
Speaker 3: No.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'll share a little bit of a story.
Speaker 1: When my dad was in the House, one of his
Speaker 1: colleagues was Chris Shayes out of I believe it was
Speaker 1: Connecticut five. I liked Chrischaes. Chris Shayes was a very
Speaker 1: nice gentleman. I would say we probably got sixty maybe
Speaker 1: seventy percent of the vote that we wanted out of him.
Speaker 1: And guess what, I was great with that because that
Speaker 1: he was the most conservative member you were going to
Speaker 1: get out of that part of the country. I think
Speaker 1: the same is true with Larry Hogan. Larry Hogan gives
Speaker 1: Republicans the best shot. He's already won statewide multiple times
Speaker 1: to actually pick up a Senate seat. Is he going
Speaker 1: to be a conservative rock star? Not even close. Are
Speaker 1: we probably going to get fifty sixty to seventy percent
Speaker 1: of what we want out of him? Yes, which is
Speaker 1: sixty seventy percent of what we'd get a better than
Speaker 1: we'd have a Democrat. So I think people need to
Speaker 1: be realistic. Where you're in a deep red state, you
Speaker 1: go for the most conservative person that can win the general.
Speaker 1: When you're in a blue state like Maryland, you take
Speaker 1: the best you can and it's going to be an
Speaker 1: improvement on any Democrat that would otherwise represent Maryland in
Speaker 1: the Senate.
Speaker 3: So how are you.
Speaker 2: Feeling about Do you know Kerry Lake? Do you know
Speaker 2: Kerry a bit?
Speaker 3: I do. I do very well, But I've mattered, We've talked.
Speaker 2: I'm not asking a personal question. I'm just wondering, you know,
Speaker 2: I want to see if you feel like, oh, I'm
Speaker 2: super close with Kerry's so I can't Is she gonna
Speaker 2: win this Arizona Senate seat?
Speaker 3: If Cinema runs.
Speaker 1: If Cinema runs as the independent, and you've got a Democrat, Republican,
Speaker 1: and Independent in the race, and it really only takes
Speaker 1: forty to forty two percent of the vote to win,
Speaker 1: Cary Lake can win if Kris if Kirsten Cinema decides
Speaker 1: that she's dropping out and obviously endorses the Democrat because
Speaker 1: she essentially is a Democrat. No, there's no way, there's
Speaker 1: no way that Cary Lake can win that. And I've
Speaker 1: got real concerns about the damage or impact it might
Speaker 1: have on Trump in Arizona.
Speaker 3: But if it's a three way race.
Speaker 1: In which Cinema decides I'm running, I've raised enough money
Speaker 1: to be a legitimate, solid, you know, third party contender.
Speaker 1: You could you could win that race with forty forty
Speaker 1: two percent of the vote and carry Lake can pull
Speaker 1: that vote percentage off.
Speaker 3: She could do that.
Speaker 1: But I have to tell you, Buck, of all the
Speaker 1: pick up opportunities that Republicans have in the Senate this year,
Speaker 1: you kind of rank them in order of best chance
Speaker 1: where you're going to get the you know, the best
Speaker 1: opportunity to pick up races. I could maybe make an
Speaker 1: argument that Arizona's fifth on the list for the big
Speaker 1: money like the NRSC and all these other people are
Speaker 1: going to put significant funds into these pickup races. So
Speaker 1: I would argue one of the big problems that Kerry
Speaker 1: Lake is going to have is the outside money making
Speaker 1: significant investments into the state. I just don't see it
Speaker 1: happening right now.
Speaker 2: And what about Montana against Tester the Democrat incumbent there,
Speaker 2: I mean Rosendale. Yeah, yeah, you think we can pull
Speaker 2: that one off?
Speaker 3: I do. I mean, he's a known quantity. It can happen.
Speaker 1: Tester's a lot stronger than people think he is, which
Speaker 1: is very frustrating because he basically rubber stams anything that
Speaker 1: Chuck Schumer does.
Speaker 3: He does not fit.
Speaker 2: They get a Chuck Schumer Democrat in Montana. You know,
Speaker 2: that's the fundamentally the question is it just Bozeman? Is
Speaker 2: that big now? In terms of population?
Speaker 1: Yeah? Yeah, I mean you've got to understand the blue
Speaker 1: state migration into some of these red states. It's problematic,
Speaker 1: it really is. And Tester is able to pull off
Speaker 1: this stick where I'm all for Montana, I represent you
Speaker 1: all this stuff, and he goes back to DC and
Speaker 1: votes in lockstep with Chuck Schumer. But never underestimate the
Speaker 1: power of incumbency, right, the power of incumbency. He's been there,
Speaker 1: what two terms is he going for a third time?
Speaker 1: I believe power of incumbency is very hard to beat
Speaker 1: Buck and that, you know, I think we've got a
Speaker 1: real shot at taking him out, But never underestimate that
Speaker 1: power of incumbency and his name, ID and everything across
Speaker 1: the state, and the fact that Chuck Schumer and national
Speaker 1: Democrats are going to be plowing a ton of money
Speaker 1: into that race to prop him up. So I think
Speaker 1: it's gonna be It's definitely one of the top three
Speaker 1: pickup opportunities for Republicans. But on the other side, how
Speaker 1: good a campaign is going to be run against him?
Speaker 1: So there's some dynamics that still need to play out,
Speaker 1: and there'll be decisions made I think on some funding,
Speaker 1: you know, coming into late summer early falls to how
Speaker 1: serious a pickup opportunity is. We'll see where the polls
Speaker 1: lead and how the campaigns are run.
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Speaker 2: fun dot com. Ned Pennsylvania, tell tell me that McCormick
Speaker 2: can get this thing done. Man, tell me that he
Speaker 2: can do it.
Speaker 3: Sure, is that what you want to hear?
Speaker 2: Many I'm worried too, because the people I know who
Speaker 2: know Pennsylvania say that it's a blue state with a
Speaker 2: lot of red residents living in it. You know what
Speaker 2: I mean that effectively, the machinery of the Democrat Party
Speaker 2: is so much better than the Republican machinery there that
Speaker 2: you're you're starting out like five points. Even if you
Speaker 2: think you're ahead, you're five points behind.
Speaker 1: I joked that Pennsylvania is you know, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: massive blue. You know, bastions in between is basically northern Alabama.
Speaker 1: The problem being that the Philadelphia machine and a little
Speaker 1: bit behind at the Pittsburgh machine just overwhelms, you know,
Speaker 1: that central part of the state. I just I mean, McCormick,
Speaker 1: sure is he probably a good fit for the state.
Speaker 1: Sure can he win on a good night?
Speaker 3: Maybe?
Speaker 1: I have not looked at Pennsylvania. I've done electoral maps,
Speaker 1: you know, for the for the presidential race. I have
Speaker 1: not put Trump down as winning Pennsylvania. And he can
Speaker 1: still win. I mean, I've done a map, and you
Speaker 1: don't need to win Pennsylvania. I'm I'm skeptical that we
Speaker 1: are going to win either the presidential or at the
Speaker 1: center race in Pennsylvania this year.
Speaker 3: But who knows?
Speaker 2: What's what are the flips from twenty twenty that you
Speaker 2: feel most confident about right now.
Speaker 3: I mean, listen, Arizona.
Speaker 1: Despite my concerns about the non citizens getting federal ballots,
Speaker 1: you have to understand, there've been people doing really good
Speaker 1: voter registration for Republicans down there. It's about they've added
Speaker 1: about sixty seven thousand, fifty seven thousand registered Republicans, so
Speaker 1: now it's two hundred and seven thousand registered Republican advantage
Speaker 1: over Democrats. You know, a third of the state is
Speaker 1: registered is independents, so you've added a significant pool of
Speaker 1: new Republican voters since twenty twenty two.
Speaker 3: So I like that.
Speaker 1: We've been doing some data work. There's one hundred and
Speaker 1: seventy four thousand Republicans still registered that did not vote
Speaker 1: in the twenty twenty two elections that have not gotten
Speaker 1: an absentee bouots. So you look at those numbers and go,
Speaker 1: you know, we put the right investment, the right work
Speaker 1: into Arizona. I like that Nevada, Nevada. I look at
Speaker 1: that they were two hundred thousand ballots in Clark County alone,
Speaker 1: which is Las Vegas, between Republicans and the Independent Conservative
Speaker 1: Party that were not returned. In twenty twenty two. So
Speaker 1: that's a target rich environment. You know, I feel good
Speaker 1: about our chances in Wisconsin. There are a lot of
Speaker 1: people that need to get an absentee ballot that are
Speaker 1: Hunter's pro Second Amendment, that have not really been as engaged.
Speaker 3: As they should be.
Speaker 1: And again it's a state that Trump only lost by
Speaker 1: twenty thousand votes one in twenty sixteen, only lost by
Speaker 1: twenty thousand in twenty twenty. North Carolina I feel good about.
Speaker 1: I think we're going to have a really strong effort
Speaker 1: to hold that state.
Speaker 3: Georgia.
Speaker 1: I have to tell you Georgia to me, I do
Speaker 1: not put together a map that doesn't include Georgia going
Speaker 1: to Trump. We have to win Georgia. And you know,
Speaker 1: there's some efforts going on in that state that I like.
Speaker 1: There's more work that needs to be done inside of Georgia,
Speaker 1: but those are the states I'm looking at it. If
Speaker 1: Trump can take all those states, hold North Carolina, and
Speaker 1: get Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona, Yeah, it can be done.
Speaker 1: The numbers show that it can be done.
Speaker 2: Who's Trump's VP going to be?
Speaker 3: I have no idea. I really don't.
Speaker 2: I I was honesteak.
Speaker 1: I was a big fan of Kim Reynolds, governor of Byowa.
Speaker 1: I don't think she did herself any favors. I get
Speaker 1: it that she liked the Santis fine, fair enough, you know.
Speaker 1: I think she really kind of was just put it
Speaker 1: mildly irritated Trump. But I would love to have seen
Speaker 1: her be the VP for Trump. I don't know. I've
Speaker 1: heard Carson's name, Ben Carson's name thrown out there. I
Speaker 1: even saw jad Vance's name throw up, but I have
Speaker 1: not I have no insider knowledge on who who is
Speaker 1: going to be.
Speaker 2: Do you have any crazy prediction that you feel confident
Speaker 2: about between now and the end of the year and
Speaker 2: the world of politics, anything that you wanner throw out there?
Speaker 2: This is the good news. Ned are you going to
Speaker 2: replay this if you're right? So you can just it
Speaker 2: is a free shot, like anything you think could happen.
Speaker 1: Ah, gosh, Okay, here we go. I'll make a prediction.
Speaker 1: Republicans keep and add to their majority in the House,
Speaker 1: we take back the Senate more convincingly than people think
Speaker 1: we will, and Trump wins the White House to give
Speaker 1: us the trifecta.
Speaker 3: Coming into January of twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: All right, I like it. I like where your head
Speaker 2: is on this one. My friend Ned Ryan, future White
Speaker 2: House Chief of Staff, you heard it here first, Ned Ryan, everybody,
Speaker 2: thank you for hanging out. Thanks for work you do
Speaker 2: an American majority. We'll see you soon, buddy.
Speaker 3: I appreciate it. Thanks, Bun