WEBVTT - Buck Brief - Ned Ryun 0:00:11.697 --> 0:00:14.977 You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast. Make sure 0:00:14.977 --> 0:00:17.977 you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or 0:00:18.017 --> 0:00:19.737 wherever you get your podcasts. 0:00:20.377 --> 0:00:22.857 Welcome to the Buck Brief. Our friend Ned Ryan in 0:00:22.897 --> 0:00:25.137 the mix right now. He's the founder and CEO of 0:00:25.337 --> 0:00:27.017 American Majority. 0:00:27.937 --> 0:00:28.137 Ned. 0:00:28.137 --> 0:00:29.817 Always good to see you, man, Thanks for being here. 0:00:30.297 --> 0:00:31.857 Yeah, absolutely good to be with you. Buck. 0:00:32.017 --> 0:00:36.257 So I know you amidst all of the oh my gosh, 0:00:36.297 --> 0:00:39.817 what's going to happen? And Trump is facing all these trials, 0:00:40.417 --> 0:00:43.977 you seem to be pretty confident that not only will 0:00:44.017 --> 0:00:49.177 they fail to derail Trump legally, but that also the 0:00:49.217 --> 0:00:51.937 public reaction to this might be more favorable to Trump 0:00:52.017 --> 0:00:54.617 than the Democrats realize. Tell me more. 0:00:55.897 --> 0:00:58.217 Yeah, so it really started dawning on me. I'll share 0:00:58.217 --> 0:01:00.097 a little bit of an incident that took place. I 0:01:00.177 --> 0:01:03.937 was golfing with my father in law, who not really political, 0:01:04.737 --> 0:01:06.977 I would argue, not really a big fan of Trump's. 0:01:07.377 --> 0:01:09.137 As we were golfing, he said, do you know, it's 0:01:09.137 --> 0:01:11.177 really started to dawn on me? So I would consider 0:01:11.257 --> 0:01:13.617 him Buck a normy, right, a normy. He doesn't really 0:01:13.657 --> 0:01:16.697 follow politics. He votes, He's a pretty frequent voter. Not 0:01:16.777 --> 0:01:18.897 the biggest fan of Trump, but all of a sudden 0:01:18.897 --> 0:01:21.497 it's dawning on him that what's taking place with all 0:01:21.537 --> 0:01:24.337 of these different lawsuits and charges being brought against Trump, 0:01:25.537 --> 0:01:28.737 there's no real basis to this. This is political lawfare. 0:01:28.777 --> 0:01:31.777 The basis of this is politics, trying to take out 0:01:31.857 --> 0:01:34.657 Biden's chief political opponent. And so he was sharing with 0:01:34.697 --> 0:01:38.337 me this conversation and more and more, I've been proposing 0:01:38.337 --> 0:01:40.377 a theory. There are a lot of fatalists out there 0:01:40.377 --> 0:01:43.697 that say one of these cases going to bring down Trump, right, 0:01:43.777 --> 0:01:46.057 that it's going to take him down, take him off 0:01:46.097 --> 0:01:48.817 the ballot, he will not be the nominee. I have 0:01:48.977 --> 0:01:51.737 proposed a theory that people need to look at the 0:01:51.777 --> 0:01:55.297 flip side of the coin and realize there might be 0:01:55.297 --> 0:01:58.257 a real benefit for Trump here when it breaks on 0:01:58.297 --> 0:02:00.097 the other normies out there that areld be voting in 0:02:00.137 --> 0:02:03.457 the fall elections. This is political lawfare. And I'm starting 0:02:03.457 --> 0:02:05.537 to see my theory play out pretty well. I think 0:02:05.577 --> 0:02:07.817 the Color out of case from the Supreme Court last week, 0:02:08.297 --> 0:02:09.737 I think it might go down nine to nothing. 0:02:10.817 --> 0:02:11.057 Buck. 0:02:11.097 --> 0:02:13.857 I don't think that it will. Obviously it's not gonna win, 0:02:13.897 --> 0:02:16.737 but I think it will be a definitive rebuke of Colorado. 0:02:16.817 --> 0:02:20.337 So there's one case gone, the Fanny Willis case in Georgia. 0:02:20.897 --> 0:02:22.657 I think that's imploding in front of our eyes in 0:02:22.697 --> 0:02:26.097 real time as we watch all this start to collapse. 0:02:26.737 --> 0:02:29.377 I think I think Fannie Willis thinks to Fannie Willis 0:02:29.457 --> 0:02:32.297 case is falling apart. I mean, I don't think that 0:02:32.297 --> 0:02:33.497 that's much up for debate. 0:02:33.577 --> 0:02:37.377 Yeah, and now we're starting to see reports coming out 0:02:37.457 --> 0:02:43.457 of from Breitbart that Bragg, Willis, and Smith we're all 0:02:43.497 --> 0:02:47.777 meeting with the White House to coordinate their lawsuits against Trump. 0:02:47.817 --> 0:02:51.697 As that starts to break into the public conscience, they're 0:02:51.737 --> 0:02:54.977 gonna it's going to be more and more people realizing, Yeah, 0:02:54.977 --> 0:02:56.857 there was no basis for this. I mean, this is 0:02:56.897 --> 0:03:00.617 literally a campaign tactic of the Biden White House to 0:03:00.737 --> 0:03:04.217 take out their chief political opponent, but legal basis to it. 0:03:04.457 --> 0:03:07.097 There really is no legal basis to anything that is 0:03:07.137 --> 0:03:09.097 taking place. And I think we're going to see more 0:03:09.097 --> 0:03:11.617 and more of these cases to fall apart as more 0:03:11.657 --> 0:03:14.017 pressure is put on them as we move into the 0:03:14.097 --> 0:03:16.857 spring and summer, and again during the summer, people going 0:03:16.897 --> 0:03:19.697 to go they're trying to take out chief political opponent 0:03:19.737 --> 0:03:22.297 with an abuse of the legal system. We're going to 0:03:22.337 --> 0:03:23.817 be voting for Trump, and I think you're going to 0:03:23.857 --> 0:03:26.297 see a surge surge for Trump in the spring and 0:03:26.337 --> 0:03:30.097 summer going into the rn C and DNC conventions. 0:03:31.297 --> 0:03:34.057 I like how you're thinking on this one. Do you 0:03:34.097 --> 0:03:37.937 see any any alarms going off for the people who 0:03:37.977 --> 0:03:42.137 pay attention to races and know what's happening in swing 0:03:42.217 --> 0:03:46.017 you know, swing district, Swing States. This third congressional in 0:03:46.297 --> 0:03:48.737 Long Island that we lost, I think there's a case 0:03:48.737 --> 0:03:50.657 you made that it just wasn't a strong candidate for 0:03:50.697 --> 0:03:53.217 the Santos seat. I know there'll be another election soon 0:03:53.257 --> 0:03:57.217 on this one, but you know, they they ran Trump, 0:03:57.297 --> 0:04:02.177 democracy stuff, abortion stuff, and a candidate who was, oh, yeah, 0:04:02.297 --> 0:04:04.297 I want to secure the border, right. I mean, all 0:04:04.297 --> 0:04:06.697 of a sudden, Democrats are starting to run people. Does 0:04:06.777 --> 0:04:09.097 that concern you that that may be the approach they 0:04:09.097 --> 0:04:10.497 take in a more national level. 0:04:12.057 --> 0:04:14.497 Absolutely, on the abortion issue. I mean I saw a 0:04:14.497 --> 0:04:18.297 play out in Virginia in our last year's elections, and 0:04:18.337 --> 0:04:20.737 a lot of Republicans ran away from the issue. If 0:04:20.737 --> 0:04:23.377 they had confronted it, those that did they won and 0:04:23.497 --> 0:04:26.617 what were very very narrow state legislative elections in Virginia. 0:04:26.697 --> 0:04:30.017 But you can't fight something with nothing, and I think 0:04:30.057 --> 0:04:32.537 Republicans have better start figuring out how they're going to 0:04:32.577 --> 0:04:35.937 be taking This abortion issue had on Glenn Youngkin here 0:04:35.937 --> 0:04:39.257 in Virginia went right at it buck and he proposed 0:04:39.297 --> 0:04:42.257 a fifteen week ban exceptions for the life of the mother, 0:04:42.377 --> 0:04:45.137 rape and incest. And it was actually, in what I 0:04:45.177 --> 0:04:48.697 consider a purple state, a pretty solid issue for Glenn Youngkin. 0:04:48.817 --> 0:04:51.537 So any Republicans that were running for the state legislature 0:04:51.617 --> 0:04:54.137 last year did pretty well. Those that ran away a 0:04:54.137 --> 0:04:57.497 lot of them lost. But my takeaway from this special 0:04:57.537 --> 0:05:01.537 election that just happened in New York was this, again 0:05:01.817 --> 0:05:04.497 some of the functional aspects of the elections in which 0:05:04.537 --> 0:05:07.377 Democrats got out and voted early, they voted by mail, 0:05:07.537 --> 0:05:09.857 and guess what happened on election day in some parts 0:05:09.897 --> 0:05:14.417 of district eight inches of snow. And I commented in 0:05:14.457 --> 0:05:17.297 a tweet or on X whatever we call it these 0:05:17.377 --> 0:05:20.657 days the day after this to me is another lesson 0:05:20.697 --> 0:05:23.977 for Republicans that they better learn coming into the fall elections. 0:05:24.697 --> 0:05:25.337 Vote early. 0:05:26.017 --> 0:05:27.977 If you don't want to vote by mail, go vote 0:05:28.017 --> 0:05:31.377 in person early before election day. Again, there's so many 0:05:31.417 --> 0:05:34.657 unforeseen things happen like a snowstorm on election day. Let's 0:05:34.657 --> 0:05:36.017 get our votes in. And that's one of the things 0:05:36.337 --> 0:05:40.097 I'm really really working out. But that gotten some good news. 0:05:40.137 --> 0:05:42.097 We're going to get some good funding for American Majority Action. 0:05:42.137 --> 0:05:44.777 We are going to be doing absentee ballot generation, absentee 0:05:44.777 --> 0:05:48.097 ballot chase, and some key presidential battleground states to really 0:05:48.097 --> 0:05:50.977 get Republicans to understand we've got to get eighty plus 0:05:51.057 --> 0:05:53.937 percent of those absentee ballots in. Vote early, get your 0:05:54.017 --> 0:05:56.897 vote in, thank it, do not wait until election day. 0:05:57.337 --> 0:06:00.577 Let's start really getting that into our mindset. And if 0:06:00.617 --> 0:06:01.937 we can do that, if we can get to eighty 0:06:01.937 --> 0:06:05.537 plus percent of absentee ballots coming in, I like our chances. 0:06:05.577 --> 0:06:08.017 But I will point out one thing that's a concern 0:06:08.097 --> 0:06:10.897 to me. I know there's some lawsuits that are fighting this. 0:06:11.857 --> 0:06:14.417 We have to look at Arizona. There's an issue in 0:06:14.417 --> 0:06:19.017 which non citizens are getting ballots for federal elections. The 0:06:19.337 --> 0:06:21.537 Left's not going to sit there and go, oh gosh, 0:06:21.657 --> 0:06:24.457 you know, we've got a Grand Paul dementia in the 0:06:24.497 --> 0:06:28.577 White House. You know, we're all these different things. Trump's 0:06:28.577 --> 0:06:30.097 going to win. Oh well, now, They're going to be 0:06:30.097 --> 0:06:32.177 playing all sorts of games, and I think it's incummon 0:06:32.217 --> 0:06:34.617 upon Republicans to be making sure we stay ahead of 0:06:34.657 --> 0:06:37.457 the curve this time, change our tactics, but be on 0:06:37.577 --> 0:06:40.657 top of the legal law fair in regards of how 0:06:40.697 --> 0:06:43.937 these elections are being held, especially in the presidential background states. 0:06:44.617 --> 0:06:48.177 I totally agree. So I'm glad that someone's watching this 0:06:48.297 --> 0:06:53.417 who has the ear ears of people that are in 0:06:53.417 --> 0:06:57.017 Trump's orbit, including Trump himself, because I believe, very strongly 0:06:57.137 --> 0:06:59.297 ned this is going to be a tight battle no 0:06:59.337 --> 0:07:02.737 matter what who is. People argue with me about, oh, 0:07:02.817 --> 0:07:04.737 but Biden. So I'm like, I don't care how old 0:07:04.777 --> 0:07:07.217 Biden is. I don't care how decrepit he is. They 0:07:07.377 --> 0:07:10.777 they show up on election day with you know, ninety 0:07:10.857 --> 0:07:13.017 seven percent of what they need to win, you know, 0:07:13.177 --> 0:07:14.417 I mean, this is the problem. 0:07:15.337 --> 0:07:17.137 But but I would say this book, it's because it's 0:07:17.177 --> 0:07:19.817 not really about persuading voters anymore. It's how many ballots 0:07:19.857 --> 0:07:22.217 are in the universe that they've created that they can 0:07:22.257 --> 0:07:24.537 actually collect. It has nothing to do with persuasion. It 0:07:24.577 --> 0:07:27.257 has how many ballots are you going are you going 0:07:27.297 --> 0:07:27.617 to collect? 0:07:27.617 --> 0:07:27.737 Well? 0:07:27.737 --> 0:07:31.377 The vote machinery basically right, it's it's understanding exactly. 0:07:31.497 --> 0:07:34.417 So yeah, I mean you can put up a vegetable 0:07:34.497 --> 0:07:39.017 which quite frankly twenty two and they won, right, So 0:07:39.257 --> 0:07:40.977 it's not even necessary about the quality of the cannon. 0:07:41.017 --> 0:07:42.977 And I keep on reminding people, Yeah, some of these 0:07:43.017 --> 0:07:45.657 polls look really good Trump versus Biden. I consider them 0:07:45.697 --> 0:07:48.937 a mirage because when push comes to shove, it's he's 0:07:48.977 --> 0:07:52.297 not winning North Carolina by eight points, He's not going 0:07:52.377 --> 0:07:55.257 to win Arizona by five. You know, some of these 0:07:55.337 --> 0:07:56.977 numbers are going to shrink and it's going to get 0:07:57.017 --> 0:07:59.777 much tighter. We better have our functional aspect of collecting 0:07:59.897 --> 0:08:03.137 ballots in place, clicking on all cylinders, because you know 0:08:03.217 --> 0:08:03.657 they will. 0:08:04.137 --> 0:08:07.057 Yeah. Look, then we'll come back into this in a second. 0:08:07.097 --> 0:08:08.897 I want to ask you how you think things are 0:08:08.897 --> 0:08:12.097 looking on the on the Senate side. This couldn't come 0:08:12.177 --> 0:08:14.377 at a better time in our society. I'm talking about 0:08:14.377 --> 0:08:18.137 Patriot defender. As you know, our rights are under attack 0:08:18.257 --> 0:08:22.217 these days, and people can be targeted for political reasons. 0:08:22.297 --> 0:08:25.897 Wokeness if you will comes for them, and it can 0:08:25.937 --> 0:08:28.137 be very expensive. 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Ned how are we looking 0:09:25.617 --> 0:09:26.137 for the Senate? 0:09:26.457 --> 0:09:28.417 I'm optimistic, I am. 0:09:28.537 --> 0:09:32.337 I mean you look at the pickup opportunities in Montana, 0:09:32.497 --> 0:09:36.257 West Virginia, Ohio. You know, I think, you know, I 0:09:36.257 --> 0:09:39.697 even think Hogan in Maryland, Governor Hogan, who I'm not 0:09:39.737 --> 0:09:41.817 a fan of it all, but he's running for the 0:09:41.817 --> 0:09:42.497 Senate in Maryland. 0:09:43.657 --> 0:09:45.137 Can I ask you this? And I'm not trying to 0:09:45.137 --> 0:09:47.057 get your new troubles and Tho's a little controversy about 0:09:47.097 --> 0:09:50.097 this in some other places recently, with some folks saying things, 0:09:50.617 --> 0:09:52.497 is Hogan the best we can hope for in Maryland? 0:09:52.497 --> 0:09:52.617 Though? 0:09:52.657 --> 0:09:54.657 I mean, I feel like Maryland is a communist state. 0:09:54.737 --> 0:09:56.697 So are we going to do better than the weakest 0:09:56.697 --> 0:09:58.697 Republican of all Republicans? I don't think so. 0:09:59.617 --> 0:09:59.697 No. 0:10:00.097 --> 0:10:01.697 I mean, I'll share a little bit of a story. 0:10:01.697 --> 0:10:04.057 When my dad was in the House, one of his 0:10:04.097 --> 0:10:05.977 colleagues was Chris Shayes out of I believe it was 0:10:05.977 --> 0:10:09.177 Connecticut five. I liked Chrischaes. Chris Shayes was a very 0:10:09.217 --> 0:10:13.017 nice gentleman. I would say we probably got sixty maybe 0:10:13.017 --> 0:10:15.177 seventy percent of the vote that we wanted out of him. 0:10:15.217 --> 0:10:18.057 And guess what, I was great with that because that 0:10:18.137 --> 0:10:19.897 he was the most conservative member you were going to 0:10:19.897 --> 0:10:21.777 get out of that part of the country. I think 0:10:21.777 --> 0:10:24.377 the same is true with Larry Hogan. Larry Hogan gives 0:10:24.417 --> 0:10:27.617 Republicans the best shot. He's already won statewide multiple times 0:10:28.017 --> 0:10:29.937 to actually pick up a Senate seat. Is he going 0:10:29.977 --> 0:10:32.497 to be a conservative rock star? Not even close. Are 0:10:32.497 --> 0:10:34.857 we probably going to get fifty sixty to seventy percent 0:10:34.857 --> 0:10:36.737 of what we want out of him? Yes, which is 0:10:36.977 --> 0:10:38.857 sixty seventy percent of what we'd get a better than 0:10:38.857 --> 0:10:41.177 we'd have a Democrat. So I think people need to 0:10:41.177 --> 0:10:43.617 be realistic. Where you're in a deep red state, you 0:10:43.657 --> 0:10:45.857 go for the most conservative person that can win the general. 0:10:46.177 --> 0:10:48.337 When you're in a blue state like Maryland, you take 0:10:48.377 --> 0:10:50.217 the best you can and it's going to be an 0:10:50.257 --> 0:10:54.537 improvement on any Democrat that would otherwise represent Maryland in 0:10:54.577 --> 0:10:55.017 the Senate. 0:10:55.057 --> 0:10:56.257 So how are you. 0:10:56.257 --> 0:10:58.577 Feeling about Do you know Kerry Lake? Do you know 0:10:58.657 --> 0:10:59.137 Kerry a bit? 0:11:01.937 --> 0:11:04.417 I do. I do very well, But I've mattered, We've talked. 0:11:05.017 --> 0:11:07.097 I'm not asking a personal question. I'm just wondering, you know, 0:11:07.137 --> 0:11:09.017 I want to see if you feel like, oh, I'm 0:11:09.057 --> 0:11:11.657 super close with Kerry's so I can't Is she gonna 0:11:11.657 --> 0:11:13.097 win this Arizona Senate seat? 0:11:13.897 --> 0:11:14.817 If Cinema runs. 0:11:15.497 --> 0:11:18.657 If Cinema runs as the independent, and you've got a Democrat, Republican, 0:11:18.737 --> 0:11:21.697 and Independent in the race, and it really only takes 0:11:21.697 --> 0:11:23.577 forty to forty two percent of the vote to win, 0:11:23.657 --> 0:11:27.537 Cary Lake can win if Kris if Kirsten Cinema decides 0:11:27.537 --> 0:11:30.137 that she's dropping out and obviously endorses the Democrat because 0:11:30.137 --> 0:11:33.257 she essentially is a Democrat. No, there's no way, there's 0:11:33.257 --> 0:11:35.217 no way that Cary Lake can win that. And I've 0:11:35.257 --> 0:11:38.297 got real concerns about the damage or impact it might 0:11:38.337 --> 0:11:39.617 have on Trump in Arizona. 0:11:39.697 --> 0:11:41.497 But if it's a three way race. 0:11:41.337 --> 0:11:44.017 In which Cinema decides I'm running, I've raised enough money 0:11:44.057 --> 0:11:46.857 to be a legitimate, solid, you know, third party contender. 0:11:48.057 --> 0:11:50.017 You could you could win that race with forty forty 0:11:50.017 --> 0:11:51.537 two percent of the vote and carry Lake can pull 0:11:51.537 --> 0:11:53.297 that vote percentage off. 0:11:53.337 --> 0:11:53.857 She could do that. 0:11:54.857 --> 0:11:57.177 But I have to tell you, Buck, of all the 0:11:57.577 --> 0:12:01.257 pick up opportunities that Republicans have in the Senate this year, 0:12:01.657 --> 0:12:03.617 you kind of rank them in order of best chance 0:12:03.657 --> 0:12:05.097 where you're going to get the you know, the best 0:12:05.097 --> 0:12:08.457 opportunity to pick up races. I could maybe make an 0:12:08.537 --> 0:12:11.897 argument that Arizona's fifth on the list for the big 0:12:11.937 --> 0:12:14.097 money like the NRSC and all these other people are 0:12:14.097 --> 0:12:16.857 going to put significant funds into these pickup races. So 0:12:17.497 --> 0:12:19.617 I would argue one of the big problems that Kerry 0:12:19.697 --> 0:12:22.057 Lake is going to have is the outside money making 0:12:22.137 --> 0:12:25.377 significant investments into the state. I just don't see it 0:12:25.417 --> 0:12:26.217 happening right now. 0:12:26.297 --> 0:12:30.697 And what about Montana against Tester the Democrat incumbent there, 0:12:30.897 --> 0:12:33.777 I mean Rosendale. Yeah, yeah, you think we can pull 0:12:33.777 --> 0:12:34.297 that one off? 0:12:35.257 --> 0:12:39.257 I do. I mean, he's a known quantity. It can happen. 0:12:39.497 --> 0:12:41.937 Tester's a lot stronger than people think he is, which 0:12:41.977 --> 0:12:44.337 is very frustrating because he basically rubber stams anything that 0:12:44.417 --> 0:12:45.177 Chuck Schumer does. 0:12:45.897 --> 0:12:46.497 He does not fit. 0:12:46.857 --> 0:12:49.097 They get a Chuck Schumer Democrat in Montana. You know, 0:12:49.257 --> 0:12:51.777 that's the fundamentally the question is it just Bozeman? Is 0:12:51.817 --> 0:12:53.297 that big now? In terms of population? 0:12:53.457 --> 0:12:57.497 Yeah? Yeah, I mean you've got to understand the blue 0:12:57.537 --> 0:13:01.177 state migration into some of these red states. It's problematic, 0:13:01.337 --> 0:13:05.297 it really is. And Tester is able to pull off 0:13:05.337 --> 0:13:08.417 this stick where I'm all for Montana, I represent you 0:13:08.497 --> 0:13:09.937 all this stuff, and he goes back to DC and 0:13:10.217 --> 0:13:13.257 votes in lockstep with Chuck Schumer. But never underestimate the 0:13:13.257 --> 0:13:16.097 power of incumbency, right, the power of incumbency. He's been there, 0:13:16.097 --> 0:13:17.937 what two terms is he going for a third time? 0:13:17.977 --> 0:13:20.857 I believe power of incumbency is very hard to beat 0:13:20.897 --> 0:13:23.817 Buck and that, you know, I think we've got a 0:13:23.817 --> 0:13:26.777 real shot at taking him out, But never underestimate that 0:13:26.857 --> 0:13:29.817 power of incumbency and his name, ID and everything across 0:13:29.817 --> 0:13:32.697 the state, and the fact that Chuck Schumer and national 0:13:32.777 --> 0:13:34.497 Democrats are going to be plowing a ton of money 0:13:34.497 --> 0:13:37.857 into that race to prop him up. So I think 0:13:37.897 --> 0:13:39.817 it's gonna be It's definitely one of the top three 0:13:39.857 --> 0:13:43.697 pickup opportunities for Republicans. But on the other side, how 0:13:43.697 --> 0:13:45.497 good a campaign is going to be run against him? 0:13:45.537 --> 0:13:48.217 So there's some dynamics that still need to play out, 0:13:48.217 --> 0:13:50.177 and there'll be decisions made I think on some funding, 0:13:50.617 --> 0:13:52.657 you know, coming into late summer early falls to how 0:13:52.697 --> 0:13:54.777 serious a pickup opportunity is. We'll see where the polls 0:13:54.857 --> 0:13:56.097 lead and how the campaigns are run. 0:13:56.377 --> 0:13:58.577 Let's talk Pennsylvania here in a second. But first up, 0:13:58.777 --> 0:14:01.497 are you wondering where everyone's talking about Belize these days? 0:14:01.657 --> 0:14:05.377 Whoa boy Belize is fantastic, It's fun imagine visiting a 0:14:05.417 --> 0:14:09.937 country that's just a couple of hours from say Miami, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, 0:14:10.497 --> 0:14:13.417 and you can enjoy a rainforest in white sand beaches 0:14:13.497 --> 0:14:15.977 in the same day. 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Ned Pennsylvania, tell tell me that McCormick 0:14:53.737 --> 0:14:55.457 can get this thing done. Man, tell me that he 0:14:55.497 --> 0:14:55.937 can do it. 0:14:57.057 --> 0:14:58.377 Sure, is that what you want to hear? 0:14:58.817 --> 0:15:01.177 Many I'm worried too, because the people I know who 0:15:01.257 --> 0:15:05.617 know Pennsylvania say that it's a blue state with a 0:15:05.617 --> 0:15:07.337 lot of red residents living in it. You know what 0:15:07.377 --> 0:15:10.417 I mean that effectively, the machinery of the Democrat Party 0:15:10.457 --> 0:15:13.217 is so much better than the Republican machinery there that 0:15:13.777 --> 0:15:17.097 you're you're starting out like five points. Even if you 0:15:17.097 --> 0:15:19.017 think you're ahead, you're five points behind. 0:15:20.097 --> 0:15:23.857 I joked that Pennsylvania is you know, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh 0:15:24.017 --> 0:15:29.377 massive blue. You know, bastions in between is basically northern Alabama. 0:15:30.377 --> 0:15:33.337 The problem being that the Philadelphia machine and a little 0:15:33.337 --> 0:15:37.097 bit behind at the Pittsburgh machine just overwhelms, you know, 0:15:37.137 --> 0:15:40.857 that central part of the state. I just I mean, McCormick, 0:15:40.937 --> 0:15:43.657 sure is he probably a good fit for the state. 0:15:43.737 --> 0:15:45.977 Sure can he win on a good night? 0:15:46.497 --> 0:15:46.937 Maybe? 0:15:47.777 --> 0:15:51.617 I have not looked at Pennsylvania. I've done electoral maps, 0:15:51.857 --> 0:15:55.097 you know, for the for the presidential race. I have 0:15:55.217 --> 0:15:57.657 not put Trump down as winning Pennsylvania. And he can 0:15:57.697 --> 0:15:59.417 still win. I mean, I've done a map, and you 0:15:59.417 --> 0:16:04.097 don't need to win Pennsylvania. I'm I'm skeptical that we 0:16:04.137 --> 0:16:06.257 are going to win either the presidential or at the 0:16:06.297 --> 0:16:07.977 center race in Pennsylvania this year. 0:16:07.977 --> 0:16:08.737 But who knows? 0:16:09.297 --> 0:16:12.457 What's what are the flips from twenty twenty that you 0:16:12.537 --> 0:16:15.017 feel most confident about right now. 0:16:16.337 --> 0:16:17.497 I mean, listen, Arizona. 0:16:17.577 --> 0:16:20.857 Despite my concerns about the non citizens getting federal ballots, 0:16:20.937 --> 0:16:22.977 you have to understand, there've been people doing really good 0:16:23.017 --> 0:16:27.577 voter registration for Republicans down there. It's about they've added 0:16:27.617 --> 0:16:31.497 about sixty seven thousand, fifty seven thousand registered Republicans, so 0:16:31.537 --> 0:16:34.617 now it's two hundred and seven thousand registered Republican advantage 0:16:34.617 --> 0:16:36.897 over Democrats. You know, a third of the state is 0:16:36.937 --> 0:16:40.777 registered is independents, so you've added a significant pool of 0:16:40.817 --> 0:16:43.537 new Republican voters since twenty twenty two. 0:16:43.657 --> 0:16:44.697 So I like that. 0:16:45.177 --> 0:16:47.457 We've been doing some data work. There's one hundred and 0:16:47.497 --> 0:16:51.217 seventy four thousand Republicans still registered that did not vote 0:16:51.257 --> 0:16:53.777 in the twenty twenty two elections that have not gotten 0:16:53.777 --> 0:16:55.897 an absentee bouots. So you look at those numbers and go, 0:16:56.737 --> 0:16:58.617 you know, we put the right investment, the right work 0:16:58.617 --> 0:17:02.537 into Arizona. I like that Nevada, Nevada. I look at 0:17:02.537 --> 0:17:05.017 that they were two hundred thousand ballots in Clark County alone, 0:17:05.017 --> 0:17:09.057 which is Las Vegas, between Republicans and the Independent Conservative 0:17:09.057 --> 0:17:11.417 Party that were not returned. In twenty twenty two. So 0:17:11.497 --> 0:17:14.177 that's a target rich environment. You know, I feel good 0:17:14.177 --> 0:17:16.897 about our chances in Wisconsin. There are a lot of 0:17:16.937 --> 0:17:18.937 people that need to get an absentee ballot that are 0:17:18.977 --> 0:17:23.897 Hunter's pro Second Amendment, that have not really been as engaged. 0:17:23.457 --> 0:17:24.097 As they should be. 0:17:24.177 --> 0:17:26.097 And again it's a state that Trump only lost by 0:17:26.097 --> 0:17:28.977 twenty thousand votes one in twenty sixteen, only lost by 0:17:28.977 --> 0:17:32.737 twenty thousand in twenty twenty. North Carolina I feel good about. 0:17:32.777 --> 0:17:34.297 I think we're going to have a really strong effort 0:17:34.297 --> 0:17:35.017 to hold that state. 0:17:35.737 --> 0:17:36.377 Georgia. 0:17:36.937 --> 0:17:38.617 I have to tell you Georgia to me, I do 0:17:38.657 --> 0:17:41.337 not put together a map that doesn't include Georgia going 0:17:41.337 --> 0:17:44.697 to Trump. We have to win Georgia. And you know, 0:17:44.737 --> 0:17:46.897 there's some efforts going on in that state that I like. 0:17:47.017 --> 0:17:49.097 There's more work that needs to be done inside of Georgia, 0:17:49.137 --> 0:17:50.937 but those are the states I'm looking at it. If 0:17:50.977 --> 0:17:54.617 Trump can take all those states, hold North Carolina, and 0:17:54.657 --> 0:17:58.457 get Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona, Yeah, it can be done. 0:17:58.497 --> 0:17:59.857 The numbers show that it can be done. 0:18:00.377 --> 0:18:01.697 Who's Trump's VP going to be? 0:18:02.937 --> 0:18:04.897 I have no idea. I really don't. 0:18:05.177 --> 0:18:07.297 I I was honesteak. 0:18:08.097 --> 0:18:11.097 I was a big fan of Kim Reynolds, governor of Byowa. 0:18:11.457 --> 0:18:14.417 I don't think she did herself any favors. I get 0:18:14.417 --> 0:18:17.097 it that she liked the Santis fine, fair enough, you know. 0:18:18.857 --> 0:18:21.417 I think she really kind of was just put it 0:18:21.457 --> 0:18:24.217 mildly irritated Trump. But I would love to have seen 0:18:24.217 --> 0:18:26.457 her be the VP for Trump. I don't know. I've 0:18:26.457 --> 0:18:29.937 heard Carson's name, Ben Carson's name thrown out there. I 0:18:29.937 --> 0:18:31.937 even saw jad Vance's name throw up, but I have 0:18:31.977 --> 0:18:34.977 not I have no insider knowledge on who who is 0:18:35.017 --> 0:18:35.457 going to be. 0:18:36.217 --> 0:18:39.577 Do you have any crazy prediction that you feel confident 0:18:39.617 --> 0:18:41.297 about between now and the end of the year and 0:18:41.377 --> 0:18:44.537