1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:03,360 Speaker 1: Hello everyone, I'm Matthew Friedman, Matt F the Oracle. Welcome 2 00:00:03,360 --> 00:00:05,840 Speaker 1: to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM, 3 00:00:05,880 --> 00:00:07,400 Speaker 1: where you can get a risk free bet of up 4 00:00:07,400 --> 00:00:09,520 Speaker 1: two thousand dollars when you use the highly original promo 5 00:00:09,520 --> 00:00:12,080 Speaker 1: code betting Pros with their first deposit. All right here 6 00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:14,880 Speaker 1: with me to talk NFL Week eleven best Bets is 7 00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:18,120 Speaker 1: Raheem Palmer of The Ringer formerly of Action Network, where 8 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:20,439 Speaker 1: Raheem I had the pleasure to work with you for 9 00:00:20,480 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 1: a little bit. 10 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:22,279 Speaker 2: How's the season going? 11 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 1: You know, before we started recording, you were telling me 12 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 1: about how you are moving slash living in Las Vegas. 13 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:32,560 Speaker 1: Right now, this is this is amazing. But how's the 14 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: season going for you? 15 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:34,519 Speaker 3: Okay? 16 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:38,720 Speaker 4: So I mean on one front, one front, the circa 17 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:41,600 Speaker 4: contest is kicking my ass, Like like right now, picking 18 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:44,360 Speaker 4: picking five NFL sides against the spread is just not 19 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:47,159 Speaker 4: going well for me. But I mean I've become the 20 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 4: type of better to where I've really picked my spots 21 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:51,960 Speaker 4: in real life, like when it comes to my actual 22 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:54,920 Speaker 4: heart on money, I'm betting, I'm not betting, I'm not 23 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 4: betting down the board. 24 00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 3: So I mean I'm making a lot of money, so 25 00:00:58,040 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 3: I'm doing pretty well. 26 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 2: That's awesome. 27 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 1: So you're you're living out there in Vegas right now, 28 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 1: staying at a hotel. 29 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 2: Not to name it. I'm not gonna name it unless 30 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:07,399 Speaker 2: you want to give. 31 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 3: Them the Yeah, I'm not gonna name it. Yeah. 32 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 1: We don't want people rolling up in the lobby being like, hey, 33 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 1: where's Rahim is Raheem the dream here? 34 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:15,440 Speaker 3: Yeah? 35 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I mean, so basically what happened was 36 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:19,200 Speaker 4: I came out here to sign up for the Circa 37 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 4: in the super contest back in August, and then I 38 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 4: just never went home, Like I think I went home 39 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:26,399 Speaker 4: for four days, and then I came back for the 40 00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 4: Canelo GGG fight, and I just literally just been living 41 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:33,839 Speaker 4: in a hotel like and it got so crazy because 42 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:36,160 Speaker 4: you're only supposed to stay in a hotel for twenty 43 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 4: eight nights before you got to check out for one 44 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 4: night because there's just some residency laws or whatever. I 45 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:45,119 Speaker 4: end up staying at this one hotel for like forty 46 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 4: five nights and then they was like, yo, you got 47 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 4: to check out, like you really got to check out. 48 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 4: So I checked out on til another one came back. 49 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:55,080 Speaker 4: But I think I found a place that I really like. 50 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:57,600 Speaker 4: I'm I'm probably gonna be moving and I'm going to 51 00:01:57,680 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 4: officially be a Las Vegas, Nevada. 52 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 3: Right. 53 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 1: You know, most people when they go to Vegas and 54 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 1: then never return home, they're dead. They're they're buried in 55 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:10,480 Speaker 1: the desert somewhere. Uh So, list out of the two 56 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 1: outcomes of going to Vegas and then never going back, 57 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:15,880 Speaker 1: living and winning a whole bunch of money, that's the 58 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 1: better outcome. 59 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 3: So congratulating. I mean, it's been a it's been incredible. 60 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:21,040 Speaker 4: I've been I've been flying people out, like my mom 61 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 4: came out last week for our birthday. I got girls who, 62 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 4: you know, kind of just want to come out here 63 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:27,799 Speaker 4: and hang out with me. So I've been having a 64 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:28,240 Speaker 4: good time. 65 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:31,920 Speaker 1: All right, Well, it sounds like you've been having more 66 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:34,240 Speaker 1: than a good time. I would I would classify it 67 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,080 Speaker 1: as a great time. And uh, you know, week eleven, 68 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:39,800 Speaker 1: we are, we're firmly now in the double digits of 69 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:43,400 Speaker 1: the NFL season. I think it's been a fantastic season 70 00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 1: just in terms of a parody. You know, underdogs winning 71 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:49,520 Speaker 1: a lot, and you know that, I think that tends 72 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 1: to make for really interesting football games. You've got a 73 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:54,959 Speaker 1: lot of unders cashing, which isn't quite as interesting. People 74 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 1: tend not to like the lower scoring games. But again, 75 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 1: if you got unders cashing, you tend to have more 76 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:02,799 Speaker 1: underdogs winning, and I think that makes for a lot 77 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:06,640 Speaker 1: of exciting football games. So excited to talk about this 78 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 1: week eleven slate with you, and we're recording this on Thursday. 79 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:12,399 Speaker 1: This morning, I published on betting pros my projected spreads 80 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 1: for every game, and you know, several bets I like raheem. 81 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:16,360 Speaker 3: You know, I know you've got some bets. 82 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:19,600 Speaker 1: So we're going to do our best Bets show here 83 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 1: And by the way, I should say, give a little 84 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:23,320 Speaker 1: plug for you. You do a great best Bets pod 85 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 1: for the Ringer every Sunday morning. And so yeah, let's 86 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 1: talk about some of the games that we like on 87 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 1: the slate here. And first up for me, I'm looking 88 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 1: at Bears at Falcons. This number was three and a 89 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 1: half when I was first on it. I believe it 90 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 1: has moved to three across the market. 91 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 2: I still like it. I still like it at that number. 92 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 1: I have this projected at let me see here Bears 93 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:50,720 Speaker 1: plus point seventy five. So I still think on the 94 00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:53,880 Speaker 1: key number of three there's some value here, you know, 95 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 1: being able to bet this down. And you know Arthur Smith, 96 00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 1: he's got like zero home field advantage three and nine 97 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 1: against the spread for his career at home, and you know, really, 98 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 1: I look at this on the field, it comes down 99 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 1: to Justin Fields, who is just like transformed into like 100 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 1: twenty nineteen Lamar Jackson type of force over the past 101 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:17,320 Speaker 1: five or six weeks. And I think the matchup of 102 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 1: him going against the Falcons linebackers and cornerbacks, I think 103 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: that really gives the Bears an edge. And the Falcons 104 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:26,040 Speaker 1: are yet to face a true dual threat quarterback this year. 105 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 1: That's what they're getting in Fields. And you know, like 106 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:31,920 Speaker 1: fantasy football isn't the same as sports betting, but you know, 107 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:34,760 Speaker 1: like there's some commonality, there's a frame of reference. And 108 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 1: over the past month, Fields is number one at the 109 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:41,239 Speaker 1: position and expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points, and fantasy 110 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 1: point over performance. Like he's just absolutely crushing. He ranks 111 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 1: number one among all quarterbacks and carries rushing yards, rushing touchdowns. 112 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 1: I think he has a massive edge against Rashaun Evans 113 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 1: and Michael Walker at linebacker, who are like thumpers. They're 114 00:04:56,760 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 1: not like they don't have the speed to catch fields 115 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:01,720 Speaker 1: in the open field if he breaks out of the pocket, 116 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:04,360 Speaker 1: which we should expect to see him do multiple times 117 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:06,600 Speaker 1: in this game. And you know, the Bears have a 118 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:09,600 Speaker 1: top ten rush offense thanks primarily to fields. The Falcons 119 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 1: are bottom ten and run defense. And then you know 120 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:14,480 Speaker 1: he's no longer a net negative in the passing game either, 121 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:17,040 Speaker 1: like he struggled last year. He struggled in weeks one 122 00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:20,599 Speaker 1: through three, had just fifteen pass attempts per game in 123 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:22,800 Speaker 1: the first three weeks of the season three point five 124 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:25,320 Speaker 1: adjusted yards per attempt. But since then, since Week four, 125 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:28,359 Speaker 1: he's been serviceable as a passer seven point eight adjusted 126 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 1: yards per attempt that's like pretty decent and twenty three 127 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 1: point one pass attempts per game. The Falcons, it looks 128 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 1: like they will have number one cornerback A J. Terrell 129 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 1: coming back from his hamstring injury, which you know he 130 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 1: hasn't played since exiting Week seven early, but like, I 131 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:45,960 Speaker 1: think he's still going to be a little bit physically limited. 132 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 1: And then number two cornerback Casey Hayward, he's out with 133 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 1: the shoulder injury. It doesn't look like he's close to 134 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 1: returning the Falcons are number twenty nine in defensive pass DBA, 135 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:58,480 Speaker 1: number thirty in dropback success rate. Even with Terrell, I 136 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:00,880 Speaker 1: think they're vulnerable. So I expect Feels to be able 137 00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 1: to do just enough against the corners and to do 138 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:06,719 Speaker 1: basically whatever he wants against the linebackers, and I think 139 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 1: that should be enough to get the Bears to cover. 140 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 3: Rahim. 141 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 2: I don't know if you have any opinions on this game. 142 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:16,919 Speaker 4: Yeah, I kind of struggled with this one, just because 143 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 4: I mean the Bears, I mean, they traded away some 144 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 4: of their you know, defensive pieces. Obviously Swift is gone, 145 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:25,279 Speaker 4: but I do think that the Falcons are trending downward. 146 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 4: I think they've I mean, the market is kind of 147 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:29,400 Speaker 4: caught up with them. So if I had to go 148 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 4: with a side, I definitely would go with the Bears. 149 00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:33,599 Speaker 4: I was thinking about a planning myself, but I think 150 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:35,480 Speaker 4: it might be ultimately be a stay away from me. 151 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:38,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's for And by the way, I mean, I'm 152 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 1: not going I need to tell you this. I'm sure 153 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 1: you feel free to disagree with me whenever you want, 154 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:46,599 Speaker 1: because I mean, you know you are a sharp sports 155 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 1: better and I gotta say I remember you know when 156 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:52,599 Speaker 1: I was at Action, you know, looking for contributors, and 157 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 1: you sent an email in and like it was just like, Okay, 158 00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:58,960 Speaker 1: this guy we gotta get. We gotta get this guy. 159 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:01,599 Speaker 1: Like your your stuff so sharp. So it's awesome to 160 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 1: have you on the show and getting your opinions. And 161 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 1: you do have an opinion on Cowboys at the Vikings 162 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 1: and this this game, you know, like people you know, 163 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 1: And I would say, like more like the mainstream media 164 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 1: with the Vikings beating the Bills last week and the 165 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 1: way that they did it and all of like the 166 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 1: fake power rankings systems that people have, like not like 167 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 1: actual power ratings, but like, hey, I'm looking at this 168 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 1: team and they have an eight to one win loss record, 169 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:31,920 Speaker 1: so I gotta put them at the top after they 170 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 1: just beat the Bills. I don't want to say like 171 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:36,560 Speaker 1: the Vikings are fake, but like they're not up to 172 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 1: the level of the eight to one record. 173 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:39,520 Speaker 2: That they have. 174 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 3: And you see that by the fact that they are at. 175 00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 1: Home where they have a pretty strong home field advantage, 176 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 1: and the Cowboys are still favored in this game. 177 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 2: What are your thoughts here? 178 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 4: Okay, I mean, first things first, when I looked at 179 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 4: this line, I was like, how could the Cowboys be favorite? 180 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 4: And you know, it was kind of confusing to me first, 181 00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 4: but once I dig dug into the numbers, it made 182 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 4: perfect sin. I mean, you're looking at a Vikings team 183 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:05,480 Speaker 4: which has won seven straight games by one possession. Last year, 184 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 4: this was a team who they couldn't win one possession games. 185 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 4: Now you got regression to the mean all the way. 186 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 4: On the opposite end, I mean, this is an eight 187 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 4: to one team that has a pythagonat expectation of just 188 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:18,120 Speaker 4: five point four wins. 189 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 3: And you know, when you get away. 190 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 4: From the numbers, one of the first things that stands 191 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 4: out is that Kirk Cousins he struggles against pressure. He 192 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 4: has a sixty six passion rate against pressure and just 193 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:32,040 Speaker 4: a forty two percent completion percentage against pressure. So last week, 194 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:35,200 Speaker 4: you look at the Dallas Cowboys, which is my team, 195 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:36,120 Speaker 4: you know, I mean. 196 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:37,920 Speaker 3: Excuse. 197 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 4: With you there, Yeah, they're my team, but I'm loyal 198 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 4: to my bank roll first and foremost. And one of 199 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:47,040 Speaker 4: the things that the Cowboys do is they get pressure. 200 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:49,760 Speaker 4: They're one of the best in the league with Michael Parsons, 201 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:52,760 Speaker 4: DeMarcus Lawrence. Michael Parsons last week for whatever reason, they 202 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 4: had him dropping back and coverage, which was a mistake. 203 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 4: They won't have him doing that this week. The third 204 00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:00,840 Speaker 4: and pressure rate second, no excuse me, third. ESPN's pass 205 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 4: worst win rate, second and passer rate pressure rate. So 206 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 4: they're gonna be able to get some pressure on this 207 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 4: Vikings team. And one of the big things that you 208 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:13,000 Speaker 4: see is that left tackle Christian Darressol, he's out, he's 209 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 4: in a concussion protocol. If he's not playing, Kirk Cousins 210 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:18,839 Speaker 4: is in trouble. And you look at the Vikings defense, 211 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:21,080 Speaker 4: I think they're a bit overrated. Twenty ninth in opponent 212 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 4: yards per past attempt. I really like the Cowboys in 213 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:26,200 Speaker 4: this game. I think they win this one going away. 214 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 4: I just think this is a really bad matchup for 215 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 4: the Vikings and I think that one score regression really 216 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 4: comes back to haunt them. And one thing I will 217 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 4: say is that when you look at the Vikings the 218 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:37,439 Speaker 4: last couple of games, they were down ten points in 219 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:40,320 Speaker 4: the fourth quarter to the Commanders. It took kind of 220 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:43,920 Speaker 4: a miracle for them to beat the Cardinals. You look 221 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:46,520 Speaker 4: at their game against the Dolphins that was a losable 222 00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:48,560 Speaker 4: game for them as well, and then last week, they're 223 00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:51,240 Speaker 4: down seventeen points against the Bills, Like I mean, they 224 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 4: lose that game, and I think the perception of these 225 00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 4: teams is completely different. The Cowboys were up fourteen to 226 00:09:57,160 --> 00:09:59,079 Speaker 4: the Packers and kind of just blew it. So as 227 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:01,319 Speaker 4: long as Dak Prescott doesn't turn the ball over, I 228 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:02,960 Speaker 4: think this is a game where it Ay Dominie. And 229 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:06,560 Speaker 4: then also remember Cooper Rush went into Minnesota last last 230 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,080 Speaker 4: year with this Cowboys team and beat them out right, 231 00:10:09,160 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 4: So I love it. 232 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, I got to say I haven't projected right now 233 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 1: at Dallas favored by one, but like the things that 234 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 1: I know aren't taken into account in my projections. The 235 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:27,079 Speaker 1: possibility of Christian Darrisaw not starting in this game, and 236 00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:29,280 Speaker 1: you're right, like he didn't practice yesterday, he's in the 237 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 1: concussion protocol. Very good chance he is not active. 238 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:34,240 Speaker 2: For this game. 239 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 1: And then you know the issue with the Cowboys last week, 240 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 1: Anthony Barr was out and so because he wasn't able 241 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 1: to play in that off ball linebacker position, they did 242 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 1: shift Micah Parsons back to linebacker, which I agree with you, 243 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:52,480 Speaker 1: total strategic mistake by the Cowboys. Like Micah Parsons, you 244 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:55,439 Speaker 1: want him on the edge, rushing the passer as much 245 00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:58,440 Speaker 1: as you can. Anthony Barr has returned to practice. He 246 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 1: practiced yesterday, he practiced today. I think a very good 247 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 1: chance that he returns. And with that we see Micah 248 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:07,760 Speaker 1: Parsons going back to more of a pure edge rusher, 249 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 1: which I mean, like that is worth a lot to 250 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 1: the Cowboys. And so if I'm taking that into account, 251 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 1: it's probably still pretty close to me. But if I'm 252 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:18,600 Speaker 1: leaning a direction, it's the Cowboys at that point. 253 00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:19,320 Speaker 2: I'm with you. 254 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 1: There a game that that has really caught my eye, 255 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:29,240 Speaker 1: Patriots hosting the Jets here, and I'm looking at the 256 00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:31,680 Speaker 1: market right now, and this has, you know, kind of 257 00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 1: floated around between three, three. 258 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:36,560 Speaker 2: And a half at bet MGM. 259 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:39,439 Speaker 1: Right now, this number is three, and that is you know, 260 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 1: kind of like the best number that you can get 261 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:44,199 Speaker 1: out there. And by the way, obviously bet MGM the 262 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:45,720 Speaker 1: risk for you bet of up to two thousand dollars 263 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:47,440 Speaker 1: when you use the Purple code betting pros with their 264 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:51,840 Speaker 1: first deposit. I like, I mean, it feels dirty to 265 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:54,319 Speaker 1: say that I like the Patriots in this spot, because 266 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 1: I don't really have a lot of faith in mac Jones. 267 00:11:57,080 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 1: But I do like the Patriots in the spot. And 268 00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:02,880 Speaker 1: you know, we've seen, you know, in Week eight, we 269 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:04,960 Speaker 1: saw last year what they were able to do to 270 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:09,720 Speaker 1: Zach Wilson, who is you know, when pressured, a very 271 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 1: inconsistent passer. And the Patriots were minus three on the 272 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:15,839 Speaker 1: road against the Jets in Week eight they won twenty 273 00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 1: two to seventeen. Even though they've lost by only five points, 274 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 1: they trailed by twelve entering the final two minutes. Really, 275 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:25,440 Speaker 1: at no point in the fourth quarter did it feel 276 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:27,439 Speaker 1: like they were a significant threat. And now the Patriots 277 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:29,600 Speaker 1: are at home and they're still favored by just three, 278 00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 1: you know, again against Wilson and against the Patriots. You know, 279 00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:36,760 Speaker 1: for his career, fifty three point six percent completion rate, 280 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:40,400 Speaker 1: four point one adjusted yards per attempt, seven sacks for 281 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 1: fifty three yards lost. 282 00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:42,480 Speaker 3: I mean, that's bad. 283 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 1: Without Brisol, you know, they don't have the explosiveness in 284 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:48,680 Speaker 1: the running game to help them and their bottom six 285 00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:51,600 Speaker 1: and passing offense, and the Patriots number one against the 286 00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 1: pass and drop back EPA and drop back success rate. 287 00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:58,480 Speaker 1: I think Wilson has a mediocre at best showing against 288 00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:01,040 Speaker 1: the Patriots, and I think that is enough at the 289 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:04,959 Speaker 1: key number three to make me take the Patriots. Raheem 290 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 1: any opinions on this game here. 291 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:09,320 Speaker 4: I absolutely love this game and this is a pick 292 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:11,920 Speaker 4: that I actually wanted to take for me. Look, the 293 00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 4: Patrios have beat the Jets thirteen times in a row, 294 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:18,560 Speaker 4: and Zach Wilson, like I mean, Zach Wilson against Bill 295 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 4: Belichick might be one of the biggest mismatches you'll ever see. 296 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 4: And one of the things that the reason why this 297 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:27,559 Speaker 4: game stood out to me particularly is because when you 298 00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:30,719 Speaker 4: look at their first matchup, the Patriots are on the row, 299 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:33,360 Speaker 4: what were they laying. They were laying three points. Now 300 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:35,560 Speaker 4: they come back home and they're laying three points. So 301 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:38,240 Speaker 4: from a mass standpoint, it just doesn't make sense to me, 302 00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:41,079 Speaker 4: and I just think Zach Wilson is one of the 303 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 4: worst quarterbacks in the league. Now, this Jets defense, they 304 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:48,040 Speaker 4: can call some problems for Mac Jones, but with the 305 00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:51,079 Speaker 4: Patriots on a bye week, I'm trusting that Bill Belichick 306 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:54,679 Speaker 4: has been able to put something together to help Mac 307 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:57,199 Speaker 4: Jones regain for him. So I really liked the Patriots 308 00:13:57,240 --> 00:13:59,319 Speaker 4: in this matchup, and I'm actually gonna take this one myself. 309 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:01,920 Speaker 2: Love it. I love it more on the same side. 310 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:04,319 Speaker 1: Here all right, another game that has caught my eye 311 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 1: Lions plus three at the Giants, and I bet this 312 00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 1: in the look Ahead market at plus four. Here comes 313 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:14,719 Speaker 1: a plug logged it in the Betting pros app where 314 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:16,960 Speaker 1: you can sync up with sports books, get free betting 315 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:20,600 Speaker 1: advice picks, track different experts, track line movement, track your 316 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 1: own bets, and you know, you can get sports betting alerts. 317 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 1: We monitor all the major sports books so you can 318 00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:27,680 Speaker 1: see which book is offering the best line on a 319 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 1: bet at any given moments. So download the app today 320 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:34,200 Speaker 1: in the Apple or Google Play store. Lions at the 321 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 1: Giants the Giants, I mean not entirely fake, like obviously 322 00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 1: a lot of respect for Brian Dable and what he's 323 00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:45,840 Speaker 1: been able to get out of I think a rather 324 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 1: talent deficient roster, especially with all the wide receiver issues 325 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 1: they've had, And a ton of respect for Saquon Barkley, 326 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:55,200 Speaker 1: who you know, very much in the running to be 327 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 1: comeback player of the year. You know, depending on the 328 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:01,000 Speaker 1: sportsbook you're looking at, you know favored, you know tight 329 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:02,080 Speaker 1: race withch you know Smith. 330 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 3: I think he probably deserves to. 331 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:05,520 Speaker 2: Be comeback Player of the Year. 332 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 1: But you know to me looking at this game here, 333 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 1: I mean, I don't want to say like Dan Campbell, 334 00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 1: like as an underdog you just auto bet him. But 335 00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:18,440 Speaker 1: you know, we have seen the Lions be strong as 336 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:21,760 Speaker 1: underdogs and be able to cover. And the on field 337 00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:26,000 Speaker 1: matchup this Lions offensive line against the Giants defensive line 338 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:28,400 Speaker 1: and our internal fantasy pros, you know power rankings, the 339 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:31,520 Speaker 1: Lions offensive line has a massive edge over the Giants 340 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 1: here and who are without edge rusher as he's ojalare. 341 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 1: By the way, you know, in my personal rankings, I 342 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:40,120 Speaker 1: have the Lions as the number one offensive line in 343 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:42,800 Speaker 1: the league and their top four and adjusted sac rate 344 00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:46,280 Speaker 1: and adjusted lineyards. The Giants defensive line is outside the 345 00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 1: top twenty in both of those metrics. I think in 346 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,800 Speaker 1: the trenches, whether it's you know, pass protecting for Jered Goff, 347 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:56,000 Speaker 1: whether it's clearing running lanes for Jamal Williams, I think 348 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 1: they're able to control the line of scrimmage and so 349 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:01,720 Speaker 1: as underdogs, I do like their chances to keep this 350 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 1: game close. Uh raheem, do you have any opinion on this? 351 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 4: Okay, this one's tough for me just because historically Jared 352 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:11,680 Speaker 4: Goff and cold weather is. 353 00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 3: I mean, he's just a fair point. Yeah. Yeah. 354 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 4: So it's just and when you look at that game 355 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 4: against the Bears, that wasn't a game where they should 356 00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:21,720 Speaker 4: have won. I mean, well, look, the Bears kind of 357 00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 4: coughed that game away. I mean, you had the turnal, 358 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 4: you had the penalty driven drive, and then you had 359 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 4: to pick six and then the Bears come back and 360 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 4: score right away and they missed the extra point. So 361 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:33,960 Speaker 4: you have the Lions on their second straight road game, 362 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:36,600 Speaker 4: and I do expect there to be sharp money on 363 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 4: the Lions here, but I just don't think the sharp 364 00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 4: money on the fading. This Giants team has worked out 365 00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:45,920 Speaker 4: for whatever reason, they just seem to be able to 366 00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:47,280 Speaker 4: pull a rabbit out of a hat. 367 00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:48,840 Speaker 3: And you know, we. 368 00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 4: Spoke about the Minnesota Vikings being lucky. This Giants team 369 00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 4: is very lucky. But for some reason, they have a 370 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 4: little bit of magic that's just going for them. And 371 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:57,280 Speaker 4: I just think they're gonna be able to run the 372 00:16:57,320 --> 00:16:58,960 Speaker 4: ball on this Lions team that they should be able 373 00:16:59,040 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 4: to score. 374 00:16:59,880 --> 00:17:02,960 Speaker 3: So I'm gonna personally stay away from this one. A 375 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 3: lot of people know who people. 376 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 4: Will follow me at the Ringer actually have a ten 377 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:10,240 Speaker 4: to one the division bet on the Giants, and with 378 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 4: the Eagles faltering a little bit, I'm kind of hoping 379 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:13,840 Speaker 4: it gets there. 380 00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 3: So I'm just gonna be a fan from the sidelines. 381 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, so again, you said you're more loyal 382 00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:22,600 Speaker 1: to your your bank roll than your team. So the 383 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:24,680 Speaker 1: Giants and the Cowboys. I mean, there's a chance you 384 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 1: could come down to those two for the division title, 385 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 1: and yeah, that'll be interesting there. But okay, one game 386 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:33,720 Speaker 1: you have your eye on, man oh Man Colts at 387 00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:37,639 Speaker 1: the Eagles. And so at this time last week, everyone 388 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:41,919 Speaker 1: was lining up, myself included lining up to dog pile 389 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:46,359 Speaker 1: on the Colts total clown show of an organization, you know, 390 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:50,560 Speaker 1: hiring a head coach who has no head coaching experience 391 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 1: in the NFL or in college, has never been on 392 00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:59,600 Speaker 1: a college or NFL staff, an offensive play caller who's 393 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:04,439 Speaker 1: never called plays at any level, and a sixth round, 394 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:07,480 Speaker 1: second year quarterback with two career stars to his name, 395 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 1: and very mediocre production in Sam Ellinger. And then all 396 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:13,320 Speaker 1: of a sudden, you know, Matt Ryan comes back in 397 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:17,840 Speaker 1: Jeff Saturday, doesn't look like a total clown, and the Colts. 398 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:21,639 Speaker 1: The Colts win, you know, against Las Vegas, and all 399 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:25,200 Speaker 1: of a sudden, the Colts seem much better maybe than 400 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:28,520 Speaker 1: they really are. And you have the Eagles losing prime 401 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:34,359 Speaker 1: time against you know, the Washington Commanders at home, and 402 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:36,520 Speaker 1: all of a sudden, it's like, oh man, this line, 403 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,439 Speaker 1: which you know, a week ago in the look ahead 404 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 1: market was around ten, maybe even ten and a half, 405 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:46,879 Speaker 1: and it has come down down down seven, seven and 406 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 1: a half, six and a half. It hit at one 407 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 1: point at certain books. So raheem looking at the Colts 408 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 1: at the Eagles. What are your thoughts here? 409 00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 4: My thoughts are that the biggest thing is that I 410 00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:01,680 Speaker 4: like the Colts matchup. I mean, first things first, Jalen 411 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:04,119 Speaker 4: Hurts five and ten against the spread on the career 412 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:06,919 Speaker 4: on the roll, two and six as a role favorite, 413 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 4: including one in three this season. So I mean, the 414 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:14,119 Speaker 4: trends don't point in the direction of the Eagles. But 415 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:17,040 Speaker 4: one thing I'll say is that you know that look 416 00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:20,560 Speaker 4: ahead line it was with Ellinger, it wasn't with Matt Ryan, 417 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:23,640 Speaker 4: and you know, you add Matt Ryan to the mix, 418 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 4: and I think it changes a lot. 419 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 2: I mean, you have. 420 00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:29,119 Speaker 4: A coach team who basically kind of I mean they 421 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 4: punted away their season and they still have a chance 422 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:34,480 Speaker 4: of winning, which was you know, it's kind of misfortunate. 423 00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:37,200 Speaker 4: I understand it, just because you can't continue this merry 424 00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:40,359 Speaker 4: go round of quarterbacks over and over and over again. 425 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 4: You kind of got to get a guy that you 426 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:43,720 Speaker 4: think is just going to be there for the next 427 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 4: five ten years or so. But when I look at 428 00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:49,320 Speaker 4: this matchup, the Coats have a little edge, and I 429 00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:52,640 Speaker 4: think that's with the Eagles run defense their thirty second 430 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:56,199 Speaker 4: and rushing success rate thirty first in Russian EPA for play. Now, 431 00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:58,399 Speaker 4: I know they brought in and Dominican Sue, but I 432 00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:01,000 Speaker 4: just don't know if he's gonna be a vailable this week. 433 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:02,600 Speaker 3: And being football shape. 434 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:04,000 Speaker 4: I mean when you look at when you look at 435 00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:06,760 Speaker 4: what the Texans did, they ran all over ran all 436 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:08,960 Speaker 4: over them, one hundred and sixty eight yards five point 437 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:11,439 Speaker 4: three yards per carry. When you look at what the 438 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:14,600 Speaker 4: Commanders did on Monday night one hundred and fifty two yards, 439 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:18,679 Speaker 4: I mean, it's just they they made things easier for themselves, 440 00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:22,679 Speaker 4: putting them putting themselves in short yardish situations. And the 441 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:25,919 Speaker 4: Eagles are going to be without Jordan Davis, so I 442 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,960 Speaker 4: think the way Jonathan Taylor is running right now. You 443 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:31,439 Speaker 4: saw you ran well against the Raiders. I think they 444 00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:34,439 Speaker 4: can continue that this week. And you look at the Eagles. 445 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:37,280 Speaker 4: They lost cornerback of Vonte Maddocks to a hamstring injury. 446 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 4: This is a team that's on a short They're on 447 00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 4: a short week, so I just think this coach team 448 00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 4: at home, they can kind of keep this game close. 449 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:49,320 Speaker 4: And I just think they're gonna be playing for Jeff Saturday. 450 00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:51,600 Speaker 4: This is gonna be Jeff Saturday's first home game as 451 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:54,000 Speaker 4: a coach. And the one thing you can say about 452 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,480 Speaker 4: this coach team is that they're still good defensively, and 453 00:20:56,680 --> 00:21:00,840 Speaker 4: I know they've struggled offensively, but I just think they 454 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:02,399 Speaker 4: can kind of hold this team out. And you got 455 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:06,200 Speaker 4: Dallas got Dallas got her out. 456 00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:07,159 Speaker 2: A J. 457 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:09,720 Speaker 3: Brown was a little nicked up. So I just think 458 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 3: this is too many points. 459 00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:12,960 Speaker 4: I think this is a coach team that was really 460 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:16,439 Speaker 4: respected within the sharp markets coming into this season. A 461 00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:18,560 Speaker 4: lot of people took them to win the division, a 462 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 4: lot of people even took them to win the Super Bowl, 463 00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 4: and because they had that rough start, I think they're 464 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:25,359 Speaker 4: being a little bit under value here. 465 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:26,920 Speaker 3: So I'm gonna take the Colts. 466 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:32,399 Speaker 1: Yeah, so my gut instinct, you know, just thinking about them. 467 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,200 Speaker 1: So it's like, okay, we've got to drop from ten 468 00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:36,320 Speaker 1: and a half. Now we're at six and a half. 469 00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:38,640 Speaker 1: It's like, oh, this is this has gone too far. 470 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:39,160 Speaker 3: But you're right. 471 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 1: That look ahead number was Ellinger. The early line that 472 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 1: came out on Sunday that did include Matt Ryan, but 473 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:50,720 Speaker 1: hadn't taken into account the Eagles primetime Monday night football 474 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 1: the next night losing at home. That line on Sunday, 475 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:56,280 Speaker 1: the early line was eight and a half. 476 00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:56,760 Speaker 3: Uh. 477 00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 1: And so you know, a two point in theory, a 478 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:02,400 Speaker 1: two point move from Ellinger to Matt Ryan. I think 479 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:05,360 Speaker 1: Matt Ryan's worth more than just a two point upgrade 480 00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:09,080 Speaker 1: from from Ellinger. You know, even taking into account that 481 00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:11,440 Speaker 1: you're going through the key number of ten, I think 482 00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:14,399 Speaker 1: he's still worth more than that. And so you know, 483 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,760 Speaker 1: even though my gut is six and a half by 484 00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:21,280 Speaker 1: low on the Eagles, I'm looking at the numbers and 485 00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:23,320 Speaker 1: I have a projected exactly at six and a half, 486 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:24,919 Speaker 1: you know. And so it's six and a half at 487 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:28,119 Speaker 1: bet MGM right now, it's seven at DraftKings. And you know, 488 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:31,119 Speaker 1: if you are on the Colts on this side, you know, 489 00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 1: getting it on the key number seven. 490 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:36,080 Speaker 2: I think there's probably value there, all right. 491 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:40,639 Speaker 1: One one more game here, the Bengals at the Steelers, 492 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:44,560 Speaker 1: and this line has continued to move down a little bit. 493 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:47,879 Speaker 1: I believe at some books it did hit three and 494 00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:50,960 Speaker 1: a half. And yeah, I'm looking now three and a 495 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:54,280 Speaker 1: half at bet MGM, and so like I'm on the 496 00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:56,360 Speaker 1: wrong side of the market here. 497 00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 2: You know, I bet this. 498 00:22:57,760 --> 00:22:59,800 Speaker 1: First at four and a half thinking it might move, 499 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:03,119 Speaker 1: and it's moved against me. So you know the market 500 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,439 Speaker 1: is talking maybe I should listen to it, but I 501 00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:08,760 Speaker 1: just I gotta say I still I still like in 502 00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:14,960 Speaker 1: this spot, the Bengals here, and you know, Joe Burrow 503 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,199 Speaker 1: on the road thirteen and seven against his spread for 504 00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 1: his career, including the postseason and the matchup here. I 505 00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:24,280 Speaker 1: do still like even without Jamar Chase, I like the 506 00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:27,119 Speaker 1: pass offense for the Bengals against the pass defense for 507 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:30,919 Speaker 1: the Steelers. Expecting Jamar Chase to be out, you know, 508 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,760 Speaker 1: he hasn't returned to practice. I don't think he's particularly close. 509 00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 1: Maybe next week he's able to play. But even without him, 510 00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:39,359 Speaker 1: the Bengals, I think they're still pretty strong in the 511 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 1: receiving unit. T Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Hayden Hurst, Joe Mixon. 512 00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 1: That's a pretty good quartet. 513 00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:45,640 Speaker 2: Of pass catchers. 514 00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:48,960 Speaker 1: And for the seasons, the Bengals are solidly above average 515 00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:53,120 Speaker 1: in the passing game number eight in DVA, number five 516 00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:56,840 Speaker 1: in drawback EPA, number six, and drop back success rate. 517 00:23:57,080 --> 00:24:01,359 Speaker 1: The Steelers defense has been average at best against the pass. 518 00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:03,879 Speaker 1: And on top of that, last week they were without 519 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 1: Killo Witherspoon, without William Jackson, without Minka Fitzpatrick. And you know, 520 00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:12,399 Speaker 1: since then, Jackson has been placed on ir and Witherspoon 521 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,359 Speaker 1: and Fitzpatrick they didn't practice yesterday. I need to know, 522 00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:17,199 Speaker 1: check to see if they practice today, but there's a 523 00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:20,440 Speaker 1: chance that they both missed this game. And Week one, 524 00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:23,000 Speaker 1: the Bengals lost to the Steelers by just three points 525 00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 1: and overtime, even though Joe Burrow committed five turnovers, right, 526 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,600 Speaker 1: just absolutely unreal four interceptions in a loss fumble. But 527 00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:34,280 Speaker 1: last year the Bengals dominated twenty four to ten forty 528 00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:37,200 Speaker 1: one to ten against the Steelers, and I don't think 529 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:39,320 Speaker 1: Burrow's going to turn the ball over five times this week, 530 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 1: just just a guess. So I think the I think 531 00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,200 Speaker 1: the passing game even without Chase is still going to 532 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 1: have success against the Steelers. So the Bengals at minus 533 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:51,399 Speaker 1: four minus three and a half. The market's moving against me. 534 00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:55,000 Speaker 1: But I hate I hate being in the situation of 535 00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:57,920 Speaker 1: like being hubristic enough to say, like, the market's wrong 536 00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:00,320 Speaker 1: and I'm right, because normally that's not the case. But 537 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,600 Speaker 1: I think in this situation, the market is buying a 538 00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,800 Speaker 1: little too much into the return of TJ. Watt and 539 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:10,040 Speaker 1: what he might be able to do against this offensive line. Yeah, 540 00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:14,120 Speaker 1: he's great, but he's just one guy. And uh, you know, 541 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:16,920 Speaker 1: the Bengals coming off of the buy, they have time 542 00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 1: to prepare for this. So I'm I'm on the Bengals 543 00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:21,920 Speaker 1: here at minus three and a half minus four. 544 00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:24,680 Speaker 2: Rahim, do you have a position on this game? 545 00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,600 Speaker 1: If you're going against me, I might as well just 546 00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:28,840 Speaker 1: buy out of this position right now. 547 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:30,920 Speaker 4: I'm gonna be honest with you, I'm probably not even 548 00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:32,520 Speaker 4: touching this game. This is a tough one for me 549 00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:35,560 Speaker 4: because my model actually makes this game Bengals minus five 550 00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:36,879 Speaker 4: minus six in that area. 551 00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:39,760 Speaker 3: But I mean, this is what they The guy's. 552 00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:42,359 Speaker 4: An action called a rob rob Mike thimeless spot forty 553 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,440 Speaker 4: nine to twenty eight against the spread as an underdog. 554 00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:46,280 Speaker 4: I mean, we all know how he performs as a 555 00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,960 Speaker 4: home underdog, but I just think all the all the 556 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,760 Speaker 4: reasons you listed. I mean, Mika Fitzpatrick did return to 557 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:55,400 Speaker 4: practice today, but we're not short. They said he they're 558 00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 4: not sure if he's gonna play, but he did practice today. 559 00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:00,159 Speaker 4: But it's just this is just a tough and I 560 00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:04,000 Speaker 4: mean the Bengals are missing twitter top tackles, and you know, 561 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,679 Speaker 4: Naji Harris a struggle, but I think he could, he 562 00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 4: could show some life in this game. And it's just 563 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,640 Speaker 4: I just think there's better spots. I mean, I'd probably 564 00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:15,719 Speaker 4: be looking towards Pittsburgh just because of Tomlind's record as 565 00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:18,199 Speaker 4: an underdog, but I think a lot of the football 566 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 4: reason's point to take in the Bengals here. 567 00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:23,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, So you know, and I'm normally on the like 568 00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:26,439 Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin as an underdog, love it. Tomlin is a 569 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,520 Speaker 1: home underdog. For me, it's almost always just a blind 570 00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:32,920 Speaker 1: auto bet. But like I do, I do build into 571 00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:38,560 Speaker 1: my projections, you know, home field, like particular tendencies at home. 572 00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:42,280 Speaker 1: Uh and you know, doing well as an underdog like 573 00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:43,480 Speaker 1: that is built into it. 574 00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 2: So like like my model knows. 575 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,080 Speaker 1: That Tomlin as a home underdog tends to crush and 576 00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,159 Speaker 1: like you, I still have this projected at five and 577 00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:56,000 Speaker 1: a half. So I hate I hate going against Tomlin 578 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,080 Speaker 1: at home, but this just feels like a spot where 579 00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:00,600 Speaker 1: the Steelers are maybe getting a little too much love 580 00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:04,600 Speaker 1: one show that I didn't one game, not in the outline, 581 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:09,440 Speaker 1: but I want to mention Raiders Broncos. I'm showing value 582 00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,480 Speaker 1: on the Raiders, but man, it's such a hard team 583 00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:14,680 Speaker 1: to bet. And by the way, I gotta do the plug. 584 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,000 Speaker 1: Speaking of the Raiders, we're giving away a free sign 585 00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:19,520 Speaker 1: Josh Jacobs Raiders jersey from Pristine Auction. If you want 586 00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:21,320 Speaker 1: a chance to win it, subscribe to the Betting Pros 587 00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:23,920 Speaker 1: YouTube channel right now and comment below on the video. 588 00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:26,440 Speaker 1: We announce a winner on the channel in a future episode, 589 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:30,880 Speaker 1: so turn on those notifications rahim the Raiders. Like in theory, 590 00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:33,480 Speaker 1: there's value on this team, but it is just so disgusting. 591 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:35,879 Speaker 1: I don't know if I can bet it. Do you 592 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:38,320 Speaker 1: have any thoughts on Raiders at Broncos? 593 00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,439 Speaker 3: This is this one's uglier in a massiveiece sneaker. 594 00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:45,719 Speaker 4: As I always say, I just I'm struggling with this one. 595 00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:47,200 Speaker 4: I'm gonna be honest with you. I had the coach 596 00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:50,719 Speaker 4: last week. It's just I've sworn off the Raiders. This 597 00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:54,120 Speaker 4: is a team who's blown multiple seventeen point leads at 598 00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:58,600 Speaker 4: this year and then the Broncos can't score. So it's 599 00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,560 Speaker 4: just like the Broncos, even with the solid defense, I 600 00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 4: think they're averaging fifteen to sixteen points a game. To me, 601 00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 4: I think the play is on a Raven on a 602 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:10,240 Speaker 4: Raiders teaser, like how I mean, can you really really 603 00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:13,639 Speaker 4: see this Broncos team really covering non points in the teaser? 604 00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:15,720 Speaker 4: So I think if I had to, if I had to, 605 00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:17,200 Speaker 4: if I had to go with any direction, I think 606 00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:17,760 Speaker 4: that's where I go. 607 00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:22,000 Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, so that I think that feels right. It 608 00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:25,040 Speaker 1: feels I mean, disgusting to have any investment on the Raiders, 609 00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:27,359 Speaker 1: but if you're going to do it teasing, it feels 610 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:30,160 Speaker 1: right because it is in that that classic long zone 611 00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:32,879 Speaker 1: where you're getting some value here, so I can I 612 00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:33,359 Speaker 1: can see it. 613 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:34,199 Speaker 2: I love it all right. 614 00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:36,840 Speaker 1: Raheem, thanks for joining us, telling people where to follow 615 00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:38,800 Speaker 1: you on social and to find all your work. 616 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 3: You know, pleasure to have me. 617 00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,080 Speaker 4: Thanks for having me on You can find me on 618 00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:46,560 Speaker 4: the Ringer Gambling Show. We do a Ringer Gambling podcast 619 00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:49,560 Speaker 4: multiple times a week, myself, John just Scrimsky, House East 620 00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:52,760 Speaker 4: Coast Bias. I'm also on with House. You can catch 621 00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:56,520 Speaker 4: me every Sunday. I do my top five NFL contest picks. 622 00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:58,240 Speaker 4: They're not going too well right now, so if you 623 00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:00,680 Speaker 4: want to fade, feel right to fade. But I mean 624 00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:05,080 Speaker 4: we covered NBA, NFL little boxing too, myself, Kevin Clark. 625 00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:08,000 Speaker 4: You see, they just announced Ryan Garcia is gonna be 626 00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:11,560 Speaker 4: fighting Tank Davis in the spring, so we're definitely gonna 627 00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:13,640 Speaker 4: be covering that. You can find me on Twitter. I 628 00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 4: am rostra Damas uh those are you familiar with nas? 629 00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,640 Speaker 4: It's one of my favorite rappers. So and then you 630 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:23,560 Speaker 4: gotta have roster domas angles. So that's what it is, 631 00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:24,320 Speaker 4: all right. 632 00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:27,680 Speaker 2: Raheem, it's awesome catching up with you. He's Raheem Palmer. 633 00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:29,240 Speaker 2: I'm Matthew Friedman Mattthew orcle. 634 00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:31,440 Speaker 1: Check out Betting Pros and Fantasy Pros for all my 635 00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:35,480 Speaker 1: work best bets, player props, Fantasy favorites, player projections and rankings, 636 00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:35,800 Speaker 1: and more. 637 00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:38,000 Speaker 3: If you like the show, please rate and review. 638 00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:39,720 Speaker 1: On your favorite podcast app That's Gonna do It For 639 00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,320 Speaker 1: the week eleven Best Bets edition of the Betting Pros Pod. 640 00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:48,160 Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in, good luck, and see you next episode.