1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,360
Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Todcast is brought to you

2
00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,240
Speaker 1: by Wild Grain. Wild Grain is the first bake from

3
00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:11,280
Speaker 1: frozen subscription box for sour dough breads, artisonal pastries, and

4
00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:14,800
Speaker 1: fresh pastas, plus all the items conveniently baked in twenty

5
00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:18,759
Speaker 1: five minutes or less. Unlike many store brought options, Wild

6
00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:21,880
Speaker 1: Grain uses some simple ingredients you can pronounce and a

7
00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:25,480
Speaker 1: slow fermentation process that can be a lot easier on

8
00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,080
Speaker 1: your belly, little gut health there right, and richer in

9
00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:32,600
Speaker 1: nutrients antioxidants. There's also no preservatives and no shortcuts. The

10
00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:35,800
Speaker 1: Wild Grain boxes are fully customizable. In addition to their

11
00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:38,920
Speaker 1: variety box, they have a gluten free box, a vegan box,

12
00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:42,559
Speaker 1: and a new protein box. I will tell you I

13
00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:44,960
Speaker 1: have done the gluten free box. I have done it

14
00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:48,600
Speaker 1: a second time. I have also used the code, the

15
00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:52,040
Speaker 1: todcast code. If you use the promo code toodcast at checkout,

16
00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:55,640
Speaker 1: you get thirty dollars off. I've already used it as

17
00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:58,880
Speaker 1: a gift to somebody else who loves this bread. It

18
00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:02,560
Speaker 1: is hard to find good gluten free bread. It is fantastic.

19
00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:05,720
Speaker 1: They give you step by step instructions. I really dig this.

20
00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:09,760
Speaker 1: There is nothing like having an artesion bakery in your

21
00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:12,560
Speaker 1: freezer to chase away the winter chill. Now is the

22
00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:15,920
Speaker 1: best time to stay in and enjoy some comforting homemade

23
00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:19,600
Speaker 1: meals with Wildgrain. I obviously highly recommend it. It is

24
00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:22,759
Speaker 1: worth giving Wildgrain to try. Right now, Wildgrain is offering

25
00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:25,920
Speaker 1: my listeners thirty dollars off your first box plus free

26
00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:29,400
Speaker 1: croissants for life. Come on when you go to wildgrain

27
00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:33,280
Speaker 1: dot com slash podcast to start your subscription today. That's

28
00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:36,440
Speaker 1: thirty dollars off your first box and free croissants for

29
00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:39,840
Speaker 1: life when you visit wildgrain dot com slash podcast, or

30
00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:43,760
Speaker 1: simply use the promo code podcast at checkout. This is

31
00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:51,600
Speaker 1: a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so use that code. Hello,

32
00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:55,560
Speaker 1: They're happy Thursday, and welcome to another episode of the

33
00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:59,080
Speaker 1: check podcast. This is our big weekend extravaganza, so you

34
00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:02,400
Speaker 1: will have it for the weekend. My guest is not

35
00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:05,640
Speaker 1: other than my pow Chris Silissa. He has been my

36
00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:08,400
Speaker 1: partner in crime on these live election nights and one

37
00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:09,920
Speaker 1: of the things that I want to do when we

38
00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:13,680
Speaker 1: do these big live election night specials as we did,

39
00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:17,120
Speaker 1: and by the way, thank you. An enormous turnout of

40
00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:20,840
Speaker 1: viewers again through all of our different channels doing Decision

41
00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:27,639
Speaker 1: to sk HQ, Chris Salizzi's channels, my channels. We're glad

42
00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:31,920
Speaker 1: to know that, you know, basically election night for people

43
00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:36,440
Speaker 1: that just want the information and not the spin. I

44
00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:39,320
Speaker 1: thinks turning into a more and more popular feature. So

45
00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:41,840
Speaker 1: we're happy to do that. But one of the things

46
00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:43,280
Speaker 1: we want to do is, you know, you sort of

47
00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:47,280
Speaker 1: you deal in the moment, but you know, both Chris

48
00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:50,600
Speaker 1: and I like to sort of soak in the in

49
00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:52,600
Speaker 1: the data as it comes in, and you sort of

50
00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:56,320
Speaker 1: ruminate in it after and you after all the numbers

51
00:02:56,360 --> 00:02:58,440
Speaker 1: get in, you sort of learn more stuff. So he

52
00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:02,200
Speaker 1: and I spend a bit of a debrief, if you will,

53
00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:07,040
Speaker 1: for most things Texas and the fallout going forward, and

54
00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:09,200
Speaker 1: I have a lot actually a few more things I

55
00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:12,120
Speaker 1: want to say before we get to the interview with Chris,

56
00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:15,320
Speaker 1: so because you know, yes, it was to kick off

57
00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:17,360
Speaker 1: of the primary, but there's a lot of other things

58
00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:20,840
Speaker 1: that have that I've kind of left on the cutting

59
00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:23,760
Speaker 1: room floor with you guys, simply because I've been very

60
00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:26,480
Speaker 1: focused on on the Texas primaries. Wanted to make sure

61
00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:30,720
Speaker 1: our live Election Night special went well. But the fact

62
00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:35,760
Speaker 1: of the matter is the war that Donald Trump started

63
00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:39,600
Speaker 1: less than a week ago is not going well. It's

64
00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:45,200
Speaker 1: it's not going certainly not going well politically. And the

65
00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:49,080
Speaker 1: question is, you know, is it going to bog us down?

66
00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:53,360
Speaker 1: How is it going militarily? Well? This feels in these

67
00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:56,680
Speaker 1: early days, and look, I I want to be mindful,

68
00:03:56,680 --> 00:04:00,080
Speaker 1: and it's it's in some ways when you're when you're

69
00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:04,280
Speaker 1: skeptical about a decision, you can easily get quick to

70
00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:08,480
Speaker 1: find reasons to reinforce your skepticism. So I am sort

71
00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:13,240
Speaker 1: of acknowledging my own sort of editorial bias here. Right.

72
00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:17,360
Speaker 1: I think this feels like can of worms has been

73
00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:19,880
Speaker 1: opened up, and now I'm looking around, I see a

74
00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:23,240
Speaker 1: lot of worms. Right. We've got multiple countries that have

75
00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:27,040
Speaker 1: that have somehow been dragged into a piece of this war,

76
00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:31,560
Speaker 1: whether it's drones or missiles fired by Iran at Gulf states,

77
00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:36,240
Speaker 1: you know, including Uae or Bahrain, whether it's suddenly Sri

78
00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:40,400
Speaker 1: Lanka getting getting drawn into it because we sank an

79
00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:44,640
Speaker 1: Iranian naval ship sort of in their waters in the

80
00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:53,479
Speaker 1: Indian Ocean. It is it feels like this is I

81
00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:55,800
Speaker 1: had hinted it for the last few weeks that one

82
00:04:55,800 --> 00:05:00,240
Speaker 1: of the concerns I had about was the lack of

83
00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:05,240
Speaker 1: was how much more risk averse the president was becoming

84
00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:11,400
Speaker 1: because he he had been warned about certain events and

85
00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:16,039
Speaker 1: when he went against those warnings and bad things didn't happen,

86
00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:19,840
Speaker 1: it reinforced the notion in his head that hey, he knows,

87
00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:23,240
Speaker 1: he knows this situation better than the so called experts.

88
00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:27,440
Speaker 1: And what am I referring to so assassinating Solomoni who

89
00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:32,279
Speaker 1: was the head of the republic, the the i r

90
00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:36,120
Speaker 1: GC for the Iranians, somebody responsible for the death of

91
00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:40,400
Speaker 1: many Americans, many many folks in the Middle East, essentially

92
00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:45,640
Speaker 1: the key strategists in their in their terror campaigns. That

93
00:05:45,640 --> 00:05:51,039
Speaker 1: that could that could spark a lot of fallout for

94
00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:56,560
Speaker 1: American resources in the in the in the in the region.

95
00:05:56,640 --> 00:06:02,160
Speaker 1: It did not the bombing campaign in the last summer

96
00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:07,480
Speaker 1: that the US jointly did with the Israelis to uh

97
00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:12,400
Speaker 1: finally penetrate and try to set back, if not, in

98
00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:17,760
Speaker 1: the president's words, obliterate Iran's nuclear program was also something

99
00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:22,320
Speaker 1: that the experts around him warned, Hey, be careful here,

100
00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:27,520
Speaker 1: this could this could trigger a response that that could

101
00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:32,479
Speaker 1: get that could get out of hand quickly. Nothing seemed

102
00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:35,080
Speaker 1: to happen there. If anything, the Iranians looked like a

103
00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:38,160
Speaker 1: paper tiger. They were clearly not looking for a fight.

104
00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:41,479
Speaker 1: They wanted they wanted out, and since we weren't pursuing

105
00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:45,200
Speaker 1: regime change, they took that as a you know, we

106
00:06:45,400 --> 00:06:48,080
Speaker 1: just keep them from attacking again. We'll take that as

107
00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:53,240
Speaker 1: a as a survive, not quite a win, but a survive. Well,

108
00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:59,040
Speaker 1: then came regime change, and let's look, this is clearly

109
00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:03,400
Speaker 1: why we acted when we acted right. You know, all

110
00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:08,680
Speaker 1: of the you know, while there's been various confusing rationales

111
00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:11,440
Speaker 1: that have been presented to the American people about why

112
00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:18,240
Speaker 1: we acted when we acted right, what seems to be

113
00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:22,720
Speaker 1: the most truthful and the most salient and the most

114
00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:25,240
Speaker 1: that has the most evident supporting that that has to

115
00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:30,200
Speaker 1: be the reason is it was an opportunity, right, opportunity

116
00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:34,920
Speaker 1: to get Kamani and the senior leaders of the Iranian

117
00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:38,480
Speaker 1: theocracy and they were all going to be meeting in

118
00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:42,680
Speaker 1: one place, and it was it was an opportunity. And

119
00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:48,920
Speaker 1: apparently this opportunity was if you believe the reports available

120
00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:52,480
Speaker 1: every Saturday, right, which was this was a meeting he

121
00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:55,920
Speaker 1: was having on Saturdays with his senior leaders and the Israelis.

122
00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:59,280
Speaker 1: It appears that the CIA and the Israelis, both of

123
00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:03,520
Speaker 1: the intelligence agencies, knew this was going to happen, and

124
00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:05,760
Speaker 1: there was one report that indicated this was going to

125
00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:09,320
Speaker 1: happen February twenty first instead of February twenty eighth. But

126
00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:12,960
Speaker 1: there were weather issues, and this timeline is important. I'm

127
00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:16,000
Speaker 1: going to get to that in a minute. Which would

128
00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:18,560
Speaker 1: have been actually the weekend before the State of the

129
00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:22,760
Speaker 1: Union that these attacks could have started, but weather issues

130
00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:28,400
Speaker 1: and they decided to wait a week. At some point,

131
00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:33,880
Speaker 1: the president is informed by somebody, is it Netnyahoo is

132
00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:37,600
Speaker 1: at MBS right. We've had different pieces of reporting indicating

133
00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:42,560
Speaker 1: different things that there was an opportunity that Kamanee was

134
00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:45,360
Speaker 1: going to be meeting with this senior leadership and if

135
00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:49,400
Speaker 1: they struck now they could get them. And essentially it

136
00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:53,640
Speaker 1: was a way could they pursue regime change without technically

137
00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:56,240
Speaker 1: having to you know, if they just took out cut

138
00:08:56,280 --> 00:09:03,240
Speaker 1: off the head of the snake, maybe the snake dies. Well, look,

139
00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:05,120
Speaker 1: we're not yet a week end of this thing, so

140
00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:09,040
Speaker 1: I don't think we should say you know this, you know,

141
00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:12,920
Speaker 1: cutting off the head of the snake. Hasn't worked yet,

142
00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:18,600
Speaker 1: but there's a growing sense, and there's growing nervousness in

143
00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:22,200
Speaker 1: the Pentagon and in even in those in and around

144
00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:26,439
Speaker 1: the president that that the hope that once they got

145
00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:30,440
Speaker 1: rid of Kamane, that there would be entities ready to

146
00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:37,440
Speaker 1: rise up or perhaps figures within the regime that's we're

147
00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:40,920
Speaker 1: going to be ready to make a deal, maybe ready

148
00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:43,920
Speaker 1: to switch sides. Maybe he could find his own Delsi Rodriguez,

149
00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:49,359
Speaker 1: the puppet vice president of Maduro that is now essentially

150
00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:55,880
Speaker 1: become a de facto I don't know what to call her,

151
00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:59,720
Speaker 1: but but you know, as long as she pays pays

152
00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:03,240
Speaker 1: Trump in access to the oil, he's apparently going to

153
00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:07,400
Speaker 1: leave her alone and let her rule. Well, you know,

154
00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:11,480
Speaker 1: the idea of democracy coming to Venezuela apparently is not

155
00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:13,800
Speaker 1: the rationale he used to get rid of Maduro. And

156
00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:18,240
Speaker 1: he had a singular reason to get Maduro's He wanted

157
00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:23,200
Speaker 1: the oil because again, if it was about democracy, we'd

158
00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:26,199
Speaker 1: have something right. There would at least be a commission

159
00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:28,480
Speaker 1: starting to figure out when the elections would be held,

160
00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:33,840
Speaker 1: or maybe there would be a temporary transitional governance team

161
00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:37,720
Speaker 1: that might include the folks that actually won the last

162
00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:40,840
Speaker 1: election that we recognized as a national government. But again,

163
00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:43,640
Speaker 1: none of that has happened, none of that is close

164
00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:47,560
Speaker 1: to even happening. So this is the rationale that he's

165
00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:51,760
Speaker 1: essentially we're given here. And I say this because look,

166
00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:54,600
Speaker 1: in talking to some sources that I know of folks

167
00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:56,400
Speaker 1: on the ground there, there's a few things that are

168
00:10:56,440 --> 00:11:00,880
Speaker 1: already seem to be clear. Is that whatever force, you know,

169
00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:05,520
Speaker 1: whatever group of folks that might wanted to overthrow the regime,

170
00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:09,120
Speaker 1: they went underground due to the repression that the regime

171
00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:16,480
Speaker 1: brought down upon the protesters in January, and those folks

172
00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:22,199
Speaker 1: seem to be either killed or underground. One. Two. There's

173
00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:27,040
Speaker 1: definitely a power struggle, and there's definitely a desire of

174
00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:31,920
Speaker 1: this theocracy to survive. They're not interested in putting down arms,

175
00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:34,680
Speaker 1: and there doesn't appear to be a movement to do that.

176
00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:37,880
Speaker 1: You know, the president has sort of said, well, everybody

177
00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:40,480
Speaker 1: we thought could be a candidate to be a transitional

178
00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:44,240
Speaker 1: figure is dead, and then the other people we keep

179
00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:49,880
Speaker 1: thinking of, they die. Whether that's just his rationale for

180
00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:52,959
Speaker 1: not having a plan be here, or that is exactly

181
00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:56,120
Speaker 1: what happened. Either way, there's a bit of a vacuum.

182
00:11:56,160 --> 00:12:01,439
Speaker 1: So now we are publicly and this seems just insane

183
00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:03,360
Speaker 1: to me when you think about it, on a number

184
00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:07,880
Speaker 1: of levels. Number one, the CIA, we are publicly letting

185
00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:11,080
Speaker 1: people know that the CIA is trying to arm and

186
00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:18,800
Speaker 1: train Kurds to essentially be a proxy force within Iran

187
00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:24,080
Speaker 1: to try to disrupt and overthrow this regime. And I'm

188
00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:27,720
Speaker 1: not quite sure, you know, what are we promising the

189
00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:31,240
Speaker 1: Kurds in return. You know, the Kurds have been this

190
00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:34,560
Speaker 1: incredible ally to the United States when they've tried to

191
00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:38,040
Speaker 1: deal with Isis, when they were dealing with with with

192
00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:41,400
Speaker 1: a sod in Syria. But the you know, but they

193
00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:46,600
Speaker 1: but there's that that's a very complicated issue, right The

194
00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:49,439
Speaker 1: Turks have their issues with the Kurds. Others have their

195
00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:51,760
Speaker 1: issue with the Kurds. The Kurds, you know, thanks to

196
00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:54,199
Speaker 1: our It's all goes back to World War One, right,

197
00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:56,120
Speaker 1: the fall of the Ottoman Empire, and the Curds are

198
00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:59,960
Speaker 1: kind of left out of you know, they you know,

199
00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:03,880
Speaker 1: you got land, but you didn't get land. But I'm

200
00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:05,679
Speaker 1: not going to get through a history lesson here today.

201
00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:11,760
Speaker 1: But it so now we're trying to essentially trigger a

202
00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:14,600
Speaker 1: civil war. I'm trying to figure out what we hope

203
00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:18,480
Speaker 1: to do. Number One, Why are we publicly announcing what

204
00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:23,080
Speaker 1: the CIA is doing. It seems like that is a

205
00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:25,240
Speaker 1: bit of a head scratcher that you would do that.

206
00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:28,679
Speaker 1: Number One. But if that's what we're you know, because

207
00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:32,520
Speaker 1: every indication I've gotten from experts in Iran that at

208
00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:37,240
Speaker 1: this point now the fear is the only hope is

209
00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:40,840
Speaker 1: that it might that it's going to probably take a

210
00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:44,880
Speaker 1: civil war to figure out who's going to be the

211
00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:48,880
Speaker 1: next leader of Iran. There is no democratic transition, there

212
00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:53,560
Speaker 1: is no smooth transition. There isn't this isn't This isn't

213
00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:57,760
Speaker 1: going to happen as easily as I think people told

214
00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:01,120
Speaker 1: Donald Trump it could happen, or he may have manufactured

215
00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:03,839
Speaker 1: in his own head. Can I go back to the

216
00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:09,680
Speaker 1: ease with which he got Maduro out of Venezuela, the

217
00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:14,800
Speaker 1: ease with which assassinating Solamani and blowing up their nuclear

218
00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:18,520
Speaker 1: bunkers in the mountains there, and the fact that there

219
00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:22,880
Speaker 1: was no immediate blowback, I think it it sort of

220
00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:27,000
Speaker 1: numbed him to the risk of this. And here we are.

221
00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:31,000
Speaker 1: We now have multiple golf countries that thought having an

222
00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:34,560
Speaker 1: American air base meant they had they had security, it

223
00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:38,800
Speaker 1: would prevent a country from attacking them. Well, what's Iran done.

224
00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:43,960
Speaker 1: They've been using very cheap rockets and drones to inflict

225
00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:50,600
Speaker 1: damage on Dubai, in the UAE, in Bahrain and in

226
00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:54,800
Speaker 1: other places. Is this what the Golf States signed up for?

227
00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:58,600
Speaker 1: Now we know, we've got that report that NBS was

228
00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:06,560
Speaker 1: highly influential in convincing Trump to launch these strikes. Never

229
00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:10,880
Speaker 1: mind that the two people, one of the two people

230
00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:13,480
Speaker 1: that were negotiating on behalf of the United States with

231
00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:18,040
Speaker 1: the Iranians, with somebody who's in business with the Saudis,

232
00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:20,320
Speaker 1: whose Saudy sovereign fund. I've brought this up before, but

233
00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:26,120
Speaker 1: it bears repeating that this is a You're you're trying

234
00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:28,000
Speaker 1: to figure out step back here. You're trying to figure

235
00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:30,120
Speaker 1: out what's the rationale for why we're doing this in

236
00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:33,920
Speaker 1: round and why now we know Kahmani's a bad guy.

237
00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:36,800
Speaker 1: The Iranians have been doing terrible things in the Middle East.

238
00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:40,480
Speaker 1: They have been this is a theocracy there, this is

239
00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:44,160
Speaker 1: this is there. They're immoral when their treatment of women,

240
00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:48,480
Speaker 1: their treatment of lesbians and gays, treatment of pretty much

241
00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:54,320
Speaker 1: any minority group. It is a theocracy. There's there's not

242
00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:58,560
Speaker 1: a defense of how they implement human rights in their country.

243
00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:02,280
Speaker 1: And they're not alone in being on human rights. And

244
00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:03,800
Speaker 1: I'm glad to see we want to take a hard

245
00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:05,440
Speaker 1: line with iron I'm sorry when I don't take a

246
00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:10,440
Speaker 1: hard line with Russia, but I digress. But it is

247
00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:14,080
Speaker 1: important to understand this because we keep getting different rationales.

248
00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:16,760
Speaker 1: Why did we do it when we did it? The

249
00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:22,560
Speaker 1: president's business relationships with these countries and the golf you

250
00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:27,960
Speaker 1: cannot discount them as being factors in this. In this

251
00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:30,280
Speaker 1: you know, I'm not going to sit here and say

252
00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:32,920
Speaker 1: it was the only factor, but you can't discount it.

253
00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:37,360
Speaker 1: And then here you have a conflicted private citizen in

254
00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:41,320
Speaker 1: Jared Kushner who's in business with the Saudis, whose private

255
00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:44,680
Speaker 1: equity fund really wouldn't be taken seriously without the Saudi

256
00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:50,360
Speaker 1: Sovereign funds investment. He's negotiating with the Iranians, and then

257
00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:54,240
Speaker 1: he's going back when we find out NBS, and again,

258
00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:58,440
Speaker 1: I know I've been ranting about this before. NBS is

259
00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:02,040
Speaker 1: directly lobbying the present to go in with the Israelis.

260
00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:05,760
Speaker 1: And do this take out Kamani. It is time. The

261
00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:09,080
Speaker 1: Iranians have never been this week, They've never been this vulnerable.

262
00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:12,520
Speaker 1: Strike now it is from a strategic point of view,

263
00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:17,680
Speaker 1: understandable on the timing, and there's no doubt the Saudi's

264
00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:22,520
Speaker 1: benefit from a week Iran Saudi's and I'll be very curious,

265
00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:26,640
Speaker 1: are the Saudi is going to be excited about a strong,

266
00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:31,280
Speaker 1: small d democratic Iran when that happens, and hopefully the

267
00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:34,200
Speaker 1: next five to ten years, but let's be realistic, it's

268
00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:39,960
Speaker 1: probably going to take that long. But here he is lobbying.

269
00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:42,960
Speaker 1: And so Kushner comes back to the president, to his

270
00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:48,720
Speaker 1: father in law and says, yeah, they're not serious about this, right,

271
00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:52,720
Speaker 1: NBS has already been lobbying the president. Kushner comes back

272
00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,879
Speaker 1: and reports that we have no idea what kind of

273
00:17:55,880 --> 00:18:00,920
Speaker 1: conversations Kushner is having with his business partners in Saudi

274
00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:05,679
Speaker 1: A review. That's why you worry about conflict of interest, folks.

275
00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:11,320
Speaker 1: This is why you don't want this in your infecting

276
00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:16,480
Speaker 1: your government, because it erodes trust, belief. We don't know

277
00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:20,040
Speaker 1: what is the real motivation here. Then you've had other

278
00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:23,199
Speaker 1: pieces of this rationale having to do with well, Israel

279
00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:26,320
Speaker 1: was going to go anyway, or supposedly we wanted to go,

280
00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:28,160
Speaker 1: but we didn't want to look like we were going first.

281
00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:31,880
Speaker 1: So we were hoping Israel would launch these attacks, they'd

282
00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:33,880
Speaker 1: get attacked, and then we'd response, and then we were

283
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:37,880
Speaker 1: just looking like we were coming in. By the way.

284
00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:43,119
Speaker 1: You know, Israel's brand is not great in the United

285
00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:45,960
Speaker 1: States these days, in either political party. We know this.

286
00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,800
Speaker 1: It doesn't help that our government almost is trying to

287
00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:54,760
Speaker 1: use Israel as a shield here and that they're going

288
00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:56,880
Speaker 1: to get you know. You see, I don't think they're

289
00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:01,439
Speaker 1: they don't mind if people that are unhappy with this

290
00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:04,399
Speaker 1: decision don't blame the American government, but they blame the

291
00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:08,600
Speaker 1: Israeli government. And I'm highly concerned that there are people

292
00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:12,600
Speaker 1: in this Trump administration that are in some ways totally

293
00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:20,120
Speaker 1: fine with that just blame the Jews. So I certainly

294
00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:25,239
Speaker 1: hope that some that do care about this issue end

295
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:31,560
Speaker 1: up correcting the record of us. This episode of the

296
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,200
Speaker 1: Chuck Toddcast is brought to you by American Financing. So

297
00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:36,640
Speaker 1: if you looked at your credit card statement lately, you're

298
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:39,840
Speaker 1: working forty fifty hours a week just to buy groceries

299
00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:42,480
Speaker 1: and gas, things that used to be able to afford. Right,

300
00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:44,919
Speaker 1: and the credit card companies are charging you over twenty

301
00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,919
Speaker 1: percent interest for the privilege. Think about that. It's a

302
00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:49,960
Speaker 1: lot of extra money out the door. It's designed to

303
00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:52,600
Speaker 1: keep you under water. Well, American Financing is doing something

304
00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:55,119
Speaker 1: they hate. They're actually trying to help people. They have

305
00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:58,119
Speaker 1: mortgage rates in the fives. They're showing homeowners how to

306
00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 1: take their hard earned equity to wipe out that high

307
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:04,960
Speaker 1: interest debts. The average savings is eight hundred dollars a month.

308
00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:09,359
Speaker 1: So talk to a salary based mortgage consultant, no upfront fees,

309
00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:12,600
Speaker 1: no obligation, commission, none of that. To see how much

310
00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:14,199
Speaker 1: you can say and if you start today, you can

311
00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:19,240
Speaker 1: delay two mortgage payments. Give American Financing a call America's

312
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:22,359
Speaker 1: home for home loans eight six six eight eight five

313
00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:26,399
Speaker 1: ten eighty one. That's eight six six eight eight five

314
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 1: one zero eight one, or go to Americanfinancing dot net.

315
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:36,960
Speaker 1: Slash the Chuck Toodcast use that code. This episode of

316
00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:40,000
Speaker 1: the Chuck Podcast is brought to you by ze Biotics.

317
00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:42,240
Speaker 1: Let's face it, after a night with drinks, it's hard

318
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,440
Speaker 1: to bounce back the next day. You have to make

319
00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:47,440
Speaker 1: a choice either have a great night or a great

320
00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,560
Speaker 1: next day. Well, that's where pre alcohol comes in. Z

321
00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:55,240
Speaker 1: Biotics pre alcohol probiotic drink is the world's first genetically

322
00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:58,959
Speaker 1: engineered probiotic. It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle

323
00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:01,680
Speaker 1: rough mornings after drink. Here's how it works. When you drink,

324
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,960
Speaker 1: alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut.

325
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:09,000
Speaker 1: It's a build up of this byproduct, not dehydration that's

326
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:12,320
Speaker 1: to blame for the rough days after drinking. Pre alcohol

327
00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:15,720
Speaker 1: produces an enzyme to break this by product down. Just

328
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:19,200
Speaker 1: remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night.

329
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:23,280
Speaker 1: Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Now. Look,

330
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:26,360
Speaker 1: I don't drink anymore, so I can't give zbiotics pre

331
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:30,040
Speaker 1: alcohol a personal endorsement, but my producer Lauren does drink

332
00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 1: and he tried it out. Lauren, how was your experience.

333
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:34,879
Speaker 2: I'll be honest, Chuck. I was a bit skeptical at first,

334
00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 2: but the other night I went out with my wife

335
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,280
Speaker 2: to our favorite spot from Margarita's and tried pre alcohol beforehand,

336
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:41,240
Speaker 2: and got to admit I was surprised by how good

337
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 2: I felt the next morning. Disable the pop right out

338
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,119
Speaker 2: of bed, get a workout in, have a great day

339
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 2: of work. So pre alcoholic gets my stamp of approval.

340
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:49,600
Speaker 1: So there you go. You ready to try it? Go

341
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 1: to zbiotics dot com slash Chuck podcast right now. You'll

342
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,200
Speaker 1: get fifteen percent off your first order when you use

343
00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 1: Chuck podcast at checkout. Plus it's backed by a one

344
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 1: hundred percent money back guarantee, so there's no risk. Subscriptions

345
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,480
Speaker 1: are also available for maximum consistency. Remember to add to

346
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 1: zibiotics dot com slash Chuck podcast and use the code

347
00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:15,199
Speaker 1: Chuck podcast at checkout for the fifteen percent discount. Again,

348
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 1: use the code Chuck podcast. But the point is is

349
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,800
Speaker 1: that the president is really struggling with a rationale. And

350
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,480
Speaker 1: I think one of the near term issues that's clearly

351
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 1: you know, sort of it's the type of thing that

352
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:35,280
Speaker 1: the public pays attention to is this issue of stranded Americans.

353
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:38,879
Speaker 1: And I want to get into this a minute, because

354
00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:46,400
Speaker 1: that keeps changing. Right. The President's first response on this

355
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:50,119
Speaker 1: is well, it all happened very quickly right on Tuesday

356
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:54,199
Speaker 1: when the President is asked and again I would have

357
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:56,520
Speaker 1: made a bigger deal out of this is my podcast.

358
00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:58,119
Speaker 1: The other day, but I was very focused on the

359
00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 1: Texas primaries. So during this one press of Fatilbly, he's

360
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,639
Speaker 1: asked why there was no evacuation plan for Americans in

361
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 1: the region before the strikes, and the President said this, Well,

362
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 1: it all happened very quickly. We thought, and I thought,

363
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 1: maybe more so than most, that we were going to

364
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 1: be in a situation where we were going to be attacked.

365
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:14,639
Speaker 1: So they were getting ready to attack Israel, they were

366
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 1: getting ready to attack others. So I think I was

367
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 1: right about that we attacked first. So as you could

368
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 1: see here, he's desperate to try to try to come

369
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 1: up with the rationale that there was an imminent threat. Well,

370
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 1: there's clearly was no imminent threat from the Iranians. And oh,

371
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,280
Speaker 1: by the way, this idea that we had to act fast,

372
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:39,199
Speaker 1: can I can I remind you of the timeline of

373
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:41,119
Speaker 1: this and so this idea that we didn't have an

374
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 1: evacuation plan in places because we had to act fast. Okay,

375
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 1: here's what the United States has been doing. And the

376
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 1: President of the United States was live tweeting, has been

377
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 1: live tweeting the build up of our military assets in

378
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:59,040
Speaker 1: the region since mid January. In mid January, the President

379
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 1: orders the USSA Abraham Lincoln Strike Group to the region,

380
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:07,120
Speaker 1: explicitly calling it quote a massive armada heading to Iran

381
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:12,479
Speaker 1: mid January. Remember today is March. I'm taping this in

382
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:15,920
Speaker 1: the first week of March. Okay, so this is more

383
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:20,640
Speaker 1: than six weeks ago. Then on February thirteenth, all right,

384
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 1: the middle of last month, the USS Gerald Ford, the

385
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 1: world's largest aircraft carrier, was redirected to the Middle East,

386
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:32,880
Speaker 1: which meant we had our rare two carrier hammer there

387
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:38,479
Speaker 1: you had the Lincoln and the Ford. Apparently it's moderate

388
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 1: Republican presidents that are named for our aircraft carriers in

389
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 1: this war. But I digress. Then, between February seventeenth and

390
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:52,480
Speaker 1: twenty six, over two hundred military cargo flights delivered hardware

391
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:56,120
Speaker 1: to bases in Israel and Jordan. On February twenty fourth,

392
00:24:56,280 --> 00:25:01,320
Speaker 1: twelve f twenty two Raptors offensive stealth jets arrived in Israel,

393
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 1: yet another clear signal that a combat was imminent. So

394
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:11,480
Speaker 1: the Pentagon had time to move five thousand ton warships

395
00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:15,359
Speaker 1: halfway around the world. They had time to fly two

396
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 1: hundred cargo planes full of missiles. They had six weeks

397
00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 1: of build up to plan for the February twenty eighth

398
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:32,120
Speaker 1: strike on Iran. If they had time to move the armada,

399
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:37,919
Speaker 1: why didn't they have time to move the Americans. So

400
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,920
Speaker 1: the administration is claiming, well, they had an element of surprise.

401
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 1: That's what they needed as the excuse of why they

402
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:53,439
Speaker 1: didn't warn Americans to leave earlier. Okay, surprise, we had

403
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:57,240
Speaker 1: an armada there for forty days. The Iranians were not

404
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 1: surprised that we were going to attack. Old World was

405
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 1: wondering when we were going to attack. All of our newsrooms,

406
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:08,719
Speaker 1: myself included in my own, we were constantly planning, Okay,

407
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:11,119
Speaker 1: if we attack Iran in the next twenty four hours,

408
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:13,119
Speaker 1: we got to do this. We got to We all

409
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 1: had plan vs for what we were going to do.

410
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 1: Win the administration clearly signaling this was not hidden, This

411
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:27,159
Speaker 1: was in plain sight. The only people who seem to

412
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:30,919
Speaker 1: have been surprised by this were the American tourists and

413
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 1: expats who were told by the State Department to stay

414
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 1: put and use commercial flights to leave the region. Flights,

415
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 1: by the way, that were canceled the second the first

416
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 1: bombs were dropped. You remember on January thirteenth, the President

417
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 1: famously tweeted that help is on the way to the

418
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 1: Iranian protesters, and in theory, you can say within about

419
00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:57,560
Speaker 1: forty days help arrived. So six weeks ago the President

420
00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,680
Speaker 1: promised help is on the way, and he was talking

421
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 1: about the aircraft carriers. But if you're an American teacher

422
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 1: in Kuwait, a contractor in Bahrain, and you're calling the

423
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:11,239
Speaker 1: State Department's emergency line on March third, you know what

424
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 1: you got. You got an automated recording that said, please

425
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:17,680
Speaker 1: do not rely on the US government for assistant departure.

426
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 1: Help wasn't on its way for them, was flying right

427
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 1: over their heads. So this idea that they, you know,

428
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:36,240
Speaker 1: they were not thinking about the evacuation plans for the

429
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 1: scores of Americans that now live and work in this region.

430
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,200
Speaker 1: Right Abu Dhabi has turned into one of the most

431
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 1: three or four most important financial hubs in the world.

432
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,320
Speaker 1: So we had forty five days of logistics, two carriers,

433
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 1: three hundred and thirty warplanes, two hundred cargo ships, and

434
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,359
Speaker 1: then we issue a depart now order on Monday night,

435
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:00,040
Speaker 1: two days after the war started. In the air the

436
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 1: courts were already closed, so the point is is that

437
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:10,679
Speaker 1: this specific incident, right, so, there's already questions about what

438
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 1: is the rationale. Did we do it for a preemptive

439
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 1: reason because we thought the Iranians were going to strike us.

440
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,359
Speaker 1: Did we do it because it was an opportunity because

441
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,399
Speaker 1: comane you could get kamane. And did we do it

442
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 1: because we were trying to save the protesters who were

443
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 1: getting repressed and killed in response for them protesting the government?

444
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 1: The rationales keep changing on that, And if you're the

445
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 1: American public, and then you also you start to ask yourself, Man,

446
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 1: is this the keystone cops here? Because they seem to

447
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 1: have all this, they knew what they wanted to do here,

448
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 1: to play war, to do a war game. They didn't

449
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 1: think about the consequences for American citizens that live and

450
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 1: work in the region. And the point is is that

451
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 1: this inability to plan to deal with American citizens in

452
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 1: the region is only going to reinforce the notion, well,

453
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 1: if you didn't plan for that, what else didn't you

454
00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 1: plan for? If you weren't prepared for that, what else

455
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 1: aren't you prepared for? And we're supposed to believe we're

456
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 1: going to be able to stand up a transitional government

457
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:24,720
Speaker 1: in Iran at some point. This is this thing's not

458
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 1: going well for him. In Mike, this is the first

459
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 1: time in my lifetime that an initial military action ordered

460
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:35,680
Speaker 1: by the President of the United States has not been

461
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 1: met with a majority supporting the strike. We even got

462
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 1: the bad guy within forty eight hours, right, the one

463
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:48,480
Speaker 1: known bad guy that people, oh, the Ayahtola. They might

464
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 1: not know Komani Kamni, but everybody knows Ayatola. So you

465
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 1: even have your headline and at best you're at forty

466
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 1: nine forty eight. A poll that looked like it was

467
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:05,479
Speaker 1: cranked up a little bit to make it to just

468
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 1: get the approval of the missile strike to forty nine,

469
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 1: to be a net positive by a point, also happened

470
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 1: to be a poll to show the highest job approval

471
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 1: rating that any polls shown in six months. So I

472
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: know the poster that put out the pole, and I

473
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 1: think he did an honest job, but I think he

474
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:29,719
Speaker 1: modeled it on an electorate that doesn't really exist. At

475
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:36,120
Speaker 1: the moment. Number one and number two, it's already an

476
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 1: even split, and the single best headline that you're going

477
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 1: to get out of this attack has already taken place

478
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 1: the death of the Iyatola. So what's plan C. We're

479
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 1: going to help arm and fund an insurgent force of

480
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 1: Kurds and hope that they can help essentially decapitate the

481
00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:00,120
Speaker 1: regime from the inside. Because we're not putting boots on

482
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 1: the ground. We're going to use the Kurds as the

483
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 1: US boots on the ground. I mean, essentially, it sounds

484
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 1: like we're hoping now for a civil war since there's

485
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 1: no Since this isn't going to be easy, so the

486
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 1: only and we don't want the Ayatolas to stay in charge.

487
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 1: So plan sees a civil war and hope for the best,

488
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 1: which is essentially how a rack ended up. This is

489
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 1: a rack on steroids. The much bigger country, there are

490
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 1: more factions, and we have less credibility than we've had before. Look,

491
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 1: there's there's plenty of good that's come out of this,

492
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 1: and geopolitical stuff. The biggest is you know, if if

493
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 1: you're an ally of Russia and China like Iran is

494
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 1: slash was, you're wondering what it's what it's been good for?

495
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 1: Absolutely nothing? Sorry I couldn't help myself. We have war,

496
00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:00,480
Speaker 1: what is it good for? Allies with China or you know,

497
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 1: if China is your ally, they're not coming to your defense.

498
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 1: If Russia is your ally, they're not coming to your defense.

499
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 1: So in that sense that you know, we've exposed that,

500
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 1: I think that's a good thing. And I don't want

501
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 1: to sit here and say that isn't right China and

502
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 1: Russia are, you know? I hope the United States is

503
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 1: still a good ally for our allies. Hopefully we haven't

504
00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 1: alienated too many of them. But this is not going well,

505
00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 1: and I don't know how it gets better anytime soon,

506
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 1: because in order to create the stability necessary for this

507
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 1: to get better, we've got to invest a lot more

508
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:45,000
Speaker 1: time and energy into this region. And guess what's politically

509
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 1: unpopular doing exactly that. So the question is politically, I

510
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 1: don't you know. You look and it's like you look

511
00:32:54,520 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 1: at this combined Tuesday now the debacle of of sort

512
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 1: of an array of rationales that may or may not

513
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 1: be the reason why we launched the attack. When we did,

514
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 1: we were going to do but whenever we did it,

515
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 1: it was a surprise, and we didn't have time to

516
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 1: worry about American citizens in the region. But we did

517
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 1: have six weeks build up of our military assets to

518
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 1: say that this war is not going well for the president,

519
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 1: not helping his credibility as an understatement, and you know

520
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 1: this is exactly why. Look, I think people did support

521
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:37,680
Speaker 1: him because he said, I'm not going to get us

522
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 1: into these quagmires because it's a lot easier to start

523
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:46,280
Speaker 1: a war than it is finish it. And you know,

524
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:50,000
Speaker 1: the opposition gets to say, the people you attacked, the

525
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:53,160
Speaker 1: country you attack, there are people that they're going to

526
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:55,000
Speaker 1: have their own say, and they're going to have their

527
00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 1: own timeline, and they're going to have their own survival strategy.

528
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 1: You can't assume everybody thinks like you, Right, It's one

529
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 1: of the mistakes we make in the press corps generally.

530
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:11,880
Speaker 1: I don't want to assume everybody is thinking like me.

531
00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 1: But I'm just reacting to what we're seeing. And I'm

532
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:18,400
Speaker 1: trying to give you historical context for why this is

533
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 1: the single most successful military operation in my lifetime. Was

534
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:32,760
Speaker 1: the first Golf War. George hw Bush did what he said,

535
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,319
Speaker 1: and they said they were going to liberate Kuwait. They

536
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 1: liberated Kuwait and they left, and the American public was

537
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:46,840
Speaker 1: extraordinary supportive of it. But they didn't reward. George HW.

538
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 1: Bush politically, within eighteen months he was in danger of

539
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 1: finishing third place in a three way presidential election, and

540
00:34:56,239 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 1: he ended up finishing a semi distant second. That's under

541
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 1: the best case scenario for a military intervention in a

542
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 1: country that starts with I weren't a situation where he

543
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:13,920
Speaker 1: doesn't have any of the same benefit of doubt that

544
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 1: at George HW. Bush did any of the same you know,

545
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 1: there was no you know in that. Again, both Bushes

546
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 1: built a coalition of supporters, took their case to the

547
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:29,480
Speaker 1: United Nation, made their case to the American people, and

548
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:33,760
Speaker 1: frankly to the world. Something this president has done noneough

549
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:37,759
Speaker 1: And when you've done none of that, you have no

550
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:41,080
Speaker 1: you have. You know, all he has is his own

551
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:43,880
Speaker 1: political base that he can hope will have his back,

552
00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 1: and he's finding out not everybody does. It's interesting to

553
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 1: me when you look inside the numbers. Support for this

554
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:55,399
Speaker 1: operation among Republicans is high, but it's not super high.

555
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 1: It's it's seventy six percent. And anytime you're actually under

556
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:05,440
Speaker 1: in eighty percent with your own party on anything, that's

557
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 1: actually a bit problematic. It's true in job rating that

558
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:14,720
Speaker 1: when does when do presidents now get concerned. Not when,

559
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:19,440
Speaker 1: not when the overall number gets below say forty three,

560
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:22,879
Speaker 1: forty four, it's when your part, your own party number

561
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 1: gets below eighty. In the most recent polls I've seen

562
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:29,439
Speaker 1: have all been in at about the mid to high

563
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 1: seventies of support, with the rest of Republicans either against

564
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:42,760
Speaker 1: or in not sure yet. That's not going to get better.

565
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:49,759
Speaker 1: That's only going to slowly erode away. And you know,

566
00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 1: right in the middle of the Texas primary the other night,

567
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 1: get a breaking news alert that we're suddenly using military

568
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:03,280
Speaker 1: assets to go after cartels in Ecuador and we're claiming

569
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:10,839
Speaker 1: narco terrorism. By the way, I think we still are

570
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 1: owed a better definition of narco terrorism. I think we're

571
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:18,719
Speaker 1: owed a better explanation for our just what looks to

572
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 1: many people like indiscriminate bombings of these boats in the

573
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 1: Near Pacific and Caribbean. But this is, you know, this

574
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:36,040
Speaker 1: is the issue here is the president has personalized this presidency.

575
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:39,359
Speaker 1: He sees this as his military. He thinks he can

576
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 1: just you know, he has no ideology, he has no

577
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 1: he's a unilateralist. He's not a multilateralist. He's not a bilateralist.

578
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 1: He's not an isolationist. He is simply a unilateralist. What

579
00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:57,240
Speaker 1: he says goes, He hopes that's the way people behave

580
00:37:57,280 --> 00:38:02,080
Speaker 1: in politics. Is an endorsement like his his announcement that

581
00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 1: when he endorses in the Texas center race, he expects

582
00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 1: the candidate that doesn't get his endorsement to drop out. Yeah,

583
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 1: that would be better for him, just like he expected

584
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:18,919
Speaker 1: the Iranian leaders to roll over like Delsi Rodriguez did

585
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 1: for him. That isn't the way the world always works.

586
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:26,200
Speaker 1: That isn't the way life works for anybody. But he's

587
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:28,920
Speaker 1: been deluded into thinking that he can make this happen

588
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:32,359
Speaker 1: in his own presidency. And just because he's got sick

589
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 1: of fans around him that say sure, yes, sir and

590
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:38,520
Speaker 1: all that business, doesn't mean this is actually how the

591
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:44,799
Speaker 1: world operates. And this is a mess, and this is

592
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 1: a mess that doesn't look like it's going to get

593
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:48,960
Speaker 1: better anytime soon. And the problem that Trump's going to

594
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:51,360
Speaker 1: do is he is smart enough not to put boots

595
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:54,520
Speaker 1: on the ground that would just not you know, he's

596
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:56,600
Speaker 1: already going to be asking Congress for more money to

597
00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 1: pay for this war. I think that I think it's

598
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 1: the floating is fifty billion dollars supplemental. I'm skeptical that

599
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:10,080
Speaker 1: is going to be among the hardest votes that the

600
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:15,319
Speaker 1: Republicans have had to jam through, I think, and I'm

601
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:18,359
Speaker 1: not sure there's there's always been a handful of Democrats

602
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 1: that are very hawkish on Iran, But when this supplemental

603
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:28,520
Speaker 1: comes with this lack of rationale, this is likely to

604
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 1: be a majority unpopular by the time they're asking for that.

605
00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:34,319
Speaker 1: That is going to be among the tougher votes to

606
00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:39,920
Speaker 1: do in an election year. So Tuesday night, right already

607
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:45,239
Speaker 1: a bad night for Republicans, with a nasty runoff that's

608
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:48,880
Speaker 1: about to happen in Texas, Democrats end up getting a

609
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:54,240
Speaker 1: nominee that that appears to be more electable than Texas

610
00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:56,759
Speaker 1: than any nominee they've ever had before, or at least

611
00:39:56,800 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 1: going back since and Richard's. And then you have this

612
00:40:02,160 --> 00:40:06,239
Speaker 1: erratic nature of how the war is being conducted at

613
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:10,200
Speaker 1: the moment, and for United States credibility, he's not going

614
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 1: to back down now, right, So I have a feeling

615
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:20,480
Speaker 1: this is not just another issue he's got to deal with.

616
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 1: This is going to be the issue that dominates and

617
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:32,480
Speaker 1: overtakes his presidency. And I guess what's amazing about this

618
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 1: is that it was a choice, and I think it's

619
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:40,279
Speaker 1: a choice that he's someday going to regret. He may

620
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:42,719
Speaker 1: already regret it, and I can tell you this, we

621
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:46,360
Speaker 1: already know jd Vance already regrets it. I was a

622
00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:49,799
Speaker 1: bit of a hot take with chrys Elizabeth. I do

623
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:55,000
Speaker 1: think this is at the heart of the political identity

624
00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 1: that jad Vance has tried to forge, and he now

625
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:00,840
Speaker 1: has to defend an administration that does the exact opposite

626
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:05,080
Speaker 1: of of what he's been advocating and his rationale for

627
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 1: why he was on Team Trump in the first place.

628
00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:11,760
Speaker 1: I think it when something gets it to the core

629
00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:16,160
Speaker 1: of who you are, of your political identity, and you

630
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:20,400
Speaker 1: suddenly have to just flip on it, you never recover.

631
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:24,920
Speaker 1: Doesn't mean he won't get the nomination, but you never

632
00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:32,319
Speaker 1: recover that that is a tattoo, right that is going

633
00:41:32,400 --> 00:41:36,400
Speaker 1: to be hard to erase from the public's mind. All Right,

634
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:40,880
Speaker 1: Before I get to Chris's interview, a few other Basically,

635
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 1: I've had a notebook of items that I've not been

636
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:47,640
Speaker 1: able to get to for some time. Quickly on the

637
00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:51,680
Speaker 1: on the president's pronouncement that he's going to endorse in

638
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:55,319
Speaker 1: the Texas Republican primary, and he expects the candidate he

639
00:41:55,320 --> 00:42:00,080
Speaker 1: doesn't endorse to drop out. And all the reporting is

640
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:03,239
Speaker 1: indicating that Cornyn is that Dune has convinced him to

641
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:05,239
Speaker 1: do this, and everybody's going to convince him to do Corny,

642
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 1: Why are we so convinced that Ken Paxton is just

643
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:13,319
Speaker 1: going to say, Okay, I'll drop out now he's going

644
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 1: to expect something in return. This is look Donald Trump

645
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 1: has created a Republican transactional mindset that if you want something,

646
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:24,880
Speaker 1: if you want somebody to do something, you're going to

647
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 1: have to get to give something in return. So what's

648
00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 1: Trump going to offer Paxton to get out early and

649
00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:33,400
Speaker 1: to try to save the Republican Party? One hundred million

650
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:36,319
Speaker 1: dollars that's probably what it would cost, and it's no

651
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:39,279
Speaker 1: guarantee that they'd win this runoff anyway, which of them,

652
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:41,640
Speaker 1: Which means they're going to privately spend three or four

653
00:42:41,680 --> 00:42:45,160
Speaker 1: hundred million dollars to try to rescue Paxton. And it's

654
00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:47,800
Speaker 1: not really rescue Paxton, it's just to destroy Tall Rico.

655
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 1: So you're looking at I think they're looking that can

656
00:42:51,520 --> 00:43:00,400
Speaker 1: they save a half a billion dollars what's he going

657
00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 1: to offer Paxton? Is there an ambassadorship that he wants?

658
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:07,200
Speaker 1: Is this? Is this actually the exit ramp for Christy

659
00:43:07,280 --> 00:43:12,680
Speaker 1: no Right, who is clearly going to be the scapegoat

660
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:16,560
Speaker 1: for the unpopular immigration enforcement policies of this administration? She

661
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:19,520
Speaker 1: is it is? I think she now knows it's coming.

662
00:43:20,120 --> 00:43:22,719
Speaker 1: It's clear. It's not a matter of if she's out,

663
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:27,040
Speaker 1: it's when they decide to pull the trigger there? Does

664
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:30,640
Speaker 1: John Thune agree? Does John Cornyn agree to somehow help

665
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:34,440
Speaker 1: confirm Ken Paxton as the next DHS secretary to replace

666
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:42,040
Speaker 1: no Right? How what kind of bargain are Trump, Thoon,

667
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:46,800
Speaker 1: and Cornan willing to strike to get Paxton out of

668
00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 1: the way somebody who they've made the case is morally bankrupt,

669
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:54,400
Speaker 1: by the way, not Donald Trump, but Thuone and Cornyn have.

670
00:43:57,440 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 1: But the point is is I I I just got

671
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:03,759
Speaker 1: to get somebody to quit magically, And there's nothing more

672
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:06,440
Speaker 1: embarrassing to Trump. You know why Trump wants Paxton to

673
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:13,400
Speaker 1: drop out. He knows Paxter could win. Corny's not a

674
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:17,840
Speaker 1: believable mega guy. Look, Trump still matters in the Republican Party,

675
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:21,000
Speaker 1: just as chip Roy. Chip Roy, while he made it

676
00:44:21,040 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 1: to the runoff in the attorney general's race in Texas

677
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:25,880
Speaker 1: finished kind of a distant second. He's unlikely to win

678
00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:31,359
Speaker 1: this runouf And you know why. His primary opponent who

679
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:37,200
Speaker 1: defeated him essentially made the case that chip Roy wasn't

680
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:41,800
Speaker 1: a trumpy guy and noted that chip Roy was essentially

681
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:46,600
Speaker 1: thought the election de nihilism was silly and thought fighting,

682
00:44:46,960 --> 00:44:52,760
Speaker 1: you know, essentially fighting going against certification was a bad idea.

683
00:44:53,840 --> 00:44:57,360
Speaker 1: So the point is is that chip Roy was damaged

684
00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:01,040
Speaker 1: when a campaign was running against him, that he wasn't

685
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 1: sufficiently pro Trump. So I'm not you know, Trump is it?

686
00:45:05,760 --> 00:45:08,279
Speaker 1: But this is the trap that Republicans are in right now.

687
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:11,160
Speaker 1: You can't get out of a primary without Trump, and

688
00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:14,560
Speaker 1: right now Trump is baggage if you're trying to win

689
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 1: a general election in a fairly competitive state. You know,

690
00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:23,759
Speaker 1: a light from light red to purple. And I think

691
00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:25,800
Speaker 1: the question we all have in our minds is Texas

692
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:29,000
Speaker 1: now light red? It's not purple, but is it now

693
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:34,960
Speaker 1: light red? I think of Paxson's nominee. Yes, the answer

694
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:37,560
Speaker 1: to that is yes. A few more thoughts in tall Rico.

695
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:39,960
Speaker 1: It is interesting to watch the coalition that he ended

696
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 1: up building and I think the biggest vulnerability he's going

697
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:46,239
Speaker 1: to have it in general is that he's a lot

698
00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 1: more progressive than his persona. Let's on right, being a pastor,

699
00:45:50,719 --> 00:45:55,279
Speaker 1: and this is a reminder. You can be an ideological

700
00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:58,920
Speaker 1: conservative or progressive, but if you have a moderate persona,

701
00:45:59,560 --> 00:46:01,960
Speaker 1: you can win over swing voters who may may not

702
00:46:02,520 --> 00:46:08,520
Speaker 1: who if you seem like you're reasonable to deal with right,

703
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:12,560
Speaker 1: which can explain to mom. Donnie and I grew up

704
00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:16,200
Speaker 1: with a conservative senator named Connie Mack, who is quite conservative.

705
00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:20,600
Speaker 1: Would argue probably more conservative than either Rick Scott or

706
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:24,400
Speaker 1: Mark or Ruby on some things. But Connie mac always

707
00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:27,080
Speaker 1: had a smile on his face. He used to call

708
00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:30,880
Speaker 1: him the conservative with a smile demeanor is everything. Ronald

709
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:35,280
Speaker 1: Reagan very conservative. We always had a smile on his face,

710
00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:39,359
Speaker 1: moderate temperament, and that could be the secret to Tall

711
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:46,160
Speaker 1: Rico right. Strident liberalism and strident conservatism turn off the middle.

712
00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:53,440
Speaker 1: Something potentially to be learned here, But I is look.

713
00:46:53,520 --> 00:46:55,520
Speaker 1: I think, on one hand, I think the tallar Rico

714
00:46:55,600 --> 00:47:01,400
Speaker 1: victory sends a message nationally that hey, demo was running

715
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:07,480
Speaker 1: some errands Wednesday morning and ran into an acquaintance, all right,

716
00:47:07,719 --> 00:47:11,279
Speaker 1: and I was just sort of complaining that I was

717
00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:16,680
Speaker 1: tired from the late night covering the Texas primaries, and

718
00:47:16,719 --> 00:47:19,040
Speaker 1: this person said to me, oh, that's right. Was that

719
00:47:19,160 --> 00:47:22,799
Speaker 1: last night? And I said yeah, And he's like, who won?

720
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:26,440
Speaker 1: And this is a person I've never really talked like

721
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:29,320
Speaker 1: hardcore politics with, just sort of like, boy, it's crazy

722
00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:32,200
Speaker 1: out there. It's sort of the atmospheric. I have this

723
00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:34,080
Speaker 1: whole group of people. I'm sure some of you have

724
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:36,840
Speaker 1: this where you kind of talk about politics like you

725
00:47:36,880 --> 00:47:38,880
Speaker 1: talk about the weather. It's like, man, it's nuts out

726
00:47:38,920 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 1: there today, you know, or something like that, and you

727
00:47:41,320 --> 00:47:42,440
Speaker 1: just kind of say it, and then you don't say

728
00:47:42,440 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 1: anything else because you don't really want to get into

729
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:47,439
Speaker 1: a conversation because you're not one hundred percent sure where

730
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:51,120
Speaker 1: they fit. But you know that they will agree. Oh yeah,

731
00:47:51,120 --> 00:47:55,320
Speaker 1: it is crazy. You know, everything's crazy in Washington. And

732
00:47:56,320 --> 00:47:58,440
Speaker 1: I said, oh, I said, and they said, well who won?

733
00:47:58,719 --> 00:48:01,400
Speaker 1: I was following that one guy and I said, you

734
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:04,759
Speaker 1: mean the young pastor? Yeah, yeah, yeah, that guy. I said,

735
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:06,600
Speaker 1: well he won the primary. And he goes, oh, I'm

736
00:48:06,680 --> 00:48:08,160
Speaker 1: kind of glad to see that. I'm tired of the

737
00:48:08,200 --> 00:48:12,120
Speaker 1: bomb throwers. And I wouldn't have you know, I think

738
00:48:12,120 --> 00:48:14,760
Speaker 1: this person truly is someone who's sort of a small

739
00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:17,960
Speaker 1: business owner. For what it's worth, I'm not a very

740
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:20,160
Speaker 1: political person. I know it's hard to say that in Washington,

741
00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:21,920
Speaker 1: but believe it or not, there's a chunk of people

742
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:24,320
Speaker 1: that just happened to live in Washington and it's the

743
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:29,040
Speaker 1: nation's capital. Doesn't mean not everybody works in either in

744
00:48:29,120 --> 00:48:32,480
Speaker 1: government or a derivative of government. There's a there's a

745
00:48:32,560 --> 00:48:36,080
Speaker 1: chunk of folks who are, you know, no different than

746
00:48:36,160 --> 00:48:38,520
Speaker 1: small business owners in Kansas City, des Moin, et cetera.

747
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:42,839
Speaker 1: But it was that bomb thrower, right, And I've been

748
00:48:43,280 --> 00:48:46,480
Speaker 1: talking to you guys about where's the Democratic Party divide

749
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:48,840
Speaker 1: are they Are they looking for a fighter or a

750
00:48:48,960 --> 00:48:56,080
Speaker 1: uniter and or are they looking for a bomb thrower

751
00:48:56,280 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 1: or a peacemaker? And I was a lit little skeptical

752
00:49:00,680 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 1: that peacemaker was going to work. And it's very possible

753
00:49:03,560 --> 00:49:08,000
Speaker 1: this is a Texas Democratic thing less, so everywhere else

754
00:49:08,000 --> 00:49:09,640
Speaker 1: we're going to find out, Right, it could be that

755
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:15,360
Speaker 1: main Democrats want something different, but as a first impression

756
00:49:15,400 --> 00:49:17,800
Speaker 1: to the party, it's probably doing the Democratic Party brand

757
00:49:17,840 --> 00:49:22,120
Speaker 1: some good that their first winner is not a bomb thrower, right,

758
00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:25,359
Speaker 1: it is if you followed and it's one of those

759
00:49:25,400 --> 00:49:29,000
Speaker 1: things if you follow politics online, it looks like the

760
00:49:29,040 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 1: Democrats are trying to emulate Trump, bomb thrower, all this business.

761
00:49:35,040 --> 00:49:37,319
Speaker 1: But it's interesting to me that in real life they

762
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 1: perhaps voters behaved differently. Here it's one race, one state,

763
00:49:45,160 --> 00:49:47,200
Speaker 1: one state who's got a whole bunch of people who

764
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:50,000
Speaker 1: you know, Democrats who haven't won in a long time,

765
00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:52,399
Speaker 1: so they'll you know, they're looking for anybody they view

766
00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:59,040
Speaker 1: as electable. But it's an interesting it's an interesting thing

767
00:49:59,080 --> 00:50:04,920
Speaker 1: to watch. Truly, is a trip. All right, let me

768
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:06,920
Speaker 1: sneak in a break and when we come back, my

769
00:50:07,120 --> 00:50:10,400
Speaker 1: full on debrief all things. We break it all down

770
00:50:11,719 --> 00:50:14,960
Speaker 1: about Texas, North Carolina and what this means going forward,

771
00:50:15,000 --> 00:50:20,080
Speaker 1: including a new candidate, a new independent candidate for the

772
00:50:20,160 --> 00:50:22,360
Speaker 1: US Senate in the state of Montana. All of that

773
00:50:22,400 --> 00:50:27,319
Speaker 1: with my pal Crystal is after the break, do you

774
00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:30,160
Speaker 1: hate hangovers? We'll say goodbye to hangovers. Out of Office

775
00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:32,880
Speaker 1: gives you the social buzz without the next day regret.

776
00:50:32,960 --> 00:50:35,080
Speaker 1: Their best selling out of Office gummies were designed to

777
00:50:35,080 --> 00:50:38,160
Speaker 1: provide a mild, relaxing buzz, boost your mood and enhance

778
00:50:38,239 --> 00:50:41,840
Speaker 1: creativity and relaxation. With five different strengths, you can tailor

779
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:44,319
Speaker 1: the dose to fit your vibe, from a gentle one

780
00:50:44,360 --> 00:50:48,920
Speaker 1: point five milligram micro dose to their newest fifteen milligram

781
00:50:48,920 --> 00:50:52,520
Speaker 1: gummy for a more elevated experience. Their THHC beverages and

782
00:50:52,600 --> 00:50:55,719
Speaker 1: gummies are a modern, mindful alternative to a glass of

783
00:50:55,760 --> 00:50:58,239
Speaker 1: wine or a cocktail. And I'll tell you this, I've

784
00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:01,680
Speaker 1: given up booze. I don't like the hangovers. I prefer

785
00:51:01,960 --> 00:51:05,120
Speaker 1: the gummy experience. Soul is a wellness brand that believes

786
00:51:05,120 --> 00:51:08,319
Speaker 1: feeling good should be fun and easy. Soul specializes in

787
00:51:08,360 --> 00:51:12,000
Speaker 1: delicious HEMP derived THHC and CBD products, all designed to

788
00:51:12,000 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 1: boost your mood and simply help you unwind, so if

789
00:51:15,160 --> 00:51:17,440
Speaker 1: you struggle to switch off at night, Soul also has

790
00:51:17,480 --> 00:51:20,520
Speaker 1: a variety of products specifically designed to just simply help

791
00:51:20,600 --> 00:51:23,200
Speaker 1: you get a better night's sleep, including their top selling

792
00:51:23,320 --> 00:51:27,000
Speaker 1: sleepy gummies. It's a fan favorite for deep, restorative sleep.

793
00:51:27,239 --> 00:51:29,440
Speaker 1: So bring on the good vibes and treat yourself to

794
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:33,239
Speaker 1: Soul today. Right now, Soul is offering my audience thirty

795
00:51:33,280 --> 00:51:36,840
Speaker 1: percent off your entire order, so go to getzold dot com,

796
00:51:37,080 --> 00:51:40,839
Speaker 1: use the promo code toodcast. Don't forget that code that's

797
00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:45,320
Speaker 1: getsold dot com promo code todcast for thirty percent off.

798
00:51:46,560 --> 00:51:50,200
Speaker 1: Having good life insurance is incredibly important. I know from

799
00:51:50,239 --> 00:51:53,359
Speaker 1: personal experience. I was sixteen when my father passed away.

800
00:51:53,360 --> 00:51:55,759
Speaker 1: We didn't have any money. He didn't leave us in

801
00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:59,680
Speaker 1: the best shape. My mother, single mother, now widow, my

802
00:52:00,320 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 1: sixteen trying to figure out how am I going to

803
00:52:02,080 --> 00:52:05,239
Speaker 1: pay for college? And lo and behold, my dad had

804
00:52:05,320 --> 00:52:08,480
Speaker 1: one life insurance policy that we found wasn't a lot,

805
00:52:08,840 --> 00:52:11,560
Speaker 1: but it was important at the time, and it's why

806
00:52:11,640 --> 00:52:14,879
Speaker 1: I was able to go to college. Little did he

807
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:18,719
Speaker 1: know how important that would be in that moment. Well

808
00:52:18,840 --> 00:52:20,960
Speaker 1: guess what. That's why I am here to tell you

809
00:52:20,960 --> 00:52:23,880
Speaker 1: about Etho's life. They can provide you with peace of

810
00:52:23,920 --> 00:52:27,320
Speaker 1: mind knowing your family is protected even if the worst

811
00:52:27,360 --> 00:52:30,319
Speaker 1: comes to pass. Ethos is an online platform that makes

812
00:52:30,360 --> 00:52:34,000
Speaker 1: getting life insurance fast and easy, all designed to protect

813
00:52:34,000 --> 00:52:38,040
Speaker 1: your family's future in minutes, not months. There's no complicated process,

814
00:52:38,120 --> 00:52:41,800
Speaker 1: and it's one hundred percent online. There's no medical exam

815
00:52:41,840 --> 00:52:45,000
Speaker 1: require you just answer a few health questions online. You

816
00:52:45,040 --> 00:52:46,840
Speaker 1: can get a quote in as little as ten minutes

817
00:52:46,880 --> 00:52:49,960
Speaker 1: and you can get same day coverage without ever leaving

818
00:52:50,080 --> 00:52:52,879
Speaker 1: your home. You can get up to three million dollars

819
00:52:52,920 --> 00:52:55,080
Speaker 1: in coverage, and some policies start as low as two

820
00:52:55,120 --> 00:52:58,279
Speaker 1: dollars a day that would be billed monthly. As of

821
00:52:58,280 --> 00:53:01,480
Speaker 1: March twenty twenty five, business In named Ethos the number

822
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:05,840
Speaker 1: one no medical exam instant life insurance provider. So protect

823
00:53:05,840 --> 00:53:09,239
Speaker 1: your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get your free

824
00:53:09,320 --> 00:53:13,600
Speaker 1: quoted ethos dot com slash chuck. So again, that's Ethos

825
00:53:13,640 --> 00:53:18,239
Speaker 1: dot com slash chuck. Application times may vary and the

826
00:53:18,320 --> 00:53:21,520
Speaker 1: rates themselves may vary as well, but trust me, life

827
00:53:21,520 --> 00:53:24,719
Speaker 1: insurance is something you should really think about, especially if

828
00:53:24,760 --> 00:53:30,920
Speaker 1: you've got a growing family. Well, I normally am on

829
00:53:30,960 --> 00:53:34,399
Speaker 1: the receiving end of this, but he's pression and this

830
00:53:34,480 --> 00:53:39,439
Speaker 1: is Crystal's a guest appearance on the Check podcast. Those

831
00:53:39,480 --> 00:53:41,680
Speaker 1: of you that may not know this, and maybe some

832
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:45,320
Speaker 1: of you don't know, I appear weekly on your Behind

833
00:53:45,360 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 1: the Paywall podcast. You're an elite You're an elite network influencer.

834
00:53:50,760 --> 00:53:52,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a Britique offering.

835
00:53:52,560 --> 00:53:55,440
Speaker 1: You have a velvet rope behind our conversations. You know,

836
00:53:55,840 --> 00:53:58,320
Speaker 1: I'm a man of the people, as you know and say, no,

837
00:53:58,480 --> 00:54:01,239
Speaker 1: you are. We're getting rid of Velve just for this.

838
00:54:01,840 --> 00:54:05,640
Speaker 4: When I heard when I got the email that I

839
00:54:05,880 --> 00:54:08,520
Speaker 4: was being asked to be on the Chuck Podcast, I

840
00:54:08,520 --> 00:54:13,319
Speaker 4: immediately told my wife, I've made it. You know, well,

841
00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:16,560
Speaker 4: I thought Chuck was blackballing me off of the Chuck Podcast.

842
00:54:16,600 --> 00:54:21,080
Speaker 3: Apparently not. He must be hard off for guests. Somebody canceled, No,

843
00:54:21,200 --> 00:54:22,680
Speaker 3: I bucked ken Burns for you.

844
00:54:23,280 --> 00:54:27,200
Speaker 1: But how about that. You know America's two hudred and

845
00:54:27,239 --> 00:54:29,960
Speaker 1: fiftieth birthday in the American Revolution. We can wait a

846
00:54:29,960 --> 00:54:30,680
Speaker 1: few days on that.

847
00:54:31,080 --> 00:54:33,080
Speaker 3: You know, I trade bank accounts.

848
00:54:33,080 --> 00:54:38,520
Speaker 1: Now, well that's there, you got I teeth. Look, we

849
00:54:38,520 --> 00:54:41,120
Speaker 1: were we did a live stream on Tuesday night. Yeah,

850
00:54:41,920 --> 00:54:44,239
Speaker 1: but you know, in many cases, you know, you have

851
00:54:44,280 --> 00:54:47,600
Speaker 1: the immediate moments when you deal, and then you know,

852
00:54:47,640 --> 00:54:49,719
Speaker 1: you get a day, you get a night, you get

853
00:54:49,719 --> 00:54:52,040
Speaker 1: to sort of see this, and you know, since we

854
00:54:52,160 --> 00:54:57,000
Speaker 1: last saw you as a pair, Jasmine Crockett is conceited

855
00:54:57,560 --> 00:55:00,319
Speaker 1: quite quickly. And I think there was some question about

856
00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:04,000
Speaker 1: whether Taller I think Taller Rico's management of that was

857
00:55:04,080 --> 00:55:07,200
Speaker 1: quite deft when he said, hey, we're not calling, we're

858
00:55:07,239 --> 00:55:10,040
Speaker 1: not claiming victory until all the votes are counted in Dallas,

859
00:55:10,080 --> 00:55:12,880
Speaker 1: which has made it harder for Crockett to have a

860
00:55:12,960 --> 00:55:16,359
Speaker 1: grievance when her own opponent was willing to have her

861
00:55:16,400 --> 00:55:20,520
Speaker 1: back there. And now it's you know, and now all

862
00:55:20,520 --> 00:55:22,839
Speaker 1: the all the eyes are on the Republican side. By

863
00:55:22,840 --> 00:55:24,759
Speaker 1: the way, we still don't have all the votes in no,

864
00:55:25,000 --> 00:55:25,480
Speaker 1: we still don't.

865
00:55:26,080 --> 00:55:29,239
Speaker 4: Look it's like ninety five percent. And I do think

866
00:55:29,320 --> 00:55:34,719
Speaker 4: Cornan will finish a hagg marginally. I mean, it's it's

867
00:55:34,760 --> 00:55:39,160
Speaker 4: basically going to effectively be a wash. It's eight ninety

868
00:55:39,200 --> 00:55:41,760
Speaker 4: seven point eighty four to eight seventy one, six seventy.

869
00:55:41,800 --> 00:55:44,080
Speaker 4: So Cornyan has had by twenty six thousand votes with

870
00:55:44,360 --> 00:55:47,840
Speaker 4: ninety more than ninety five percent.

871
00:55:47,880 --> 00:55:52,640
Speaker 1: In Here is the stat that moved me the most

872
00:55:53,280 --> 00:55:56,880
Speaker 1: that I saw today, and that is in counties that

873
00:55:57,000 --> 00:56:01,319
Speaker 1: Donald Trump won by fifty points are more in the

874
00:56:01,320 --> 00:56:05,919
Speaker 1: deep red Texas counties. Okay, all right, Paxton consistently led

875
00:56:05,960 --> 00:56:07,960
Speaker 1: corn by four to five points, four to four to

876
00:56:07,960 --> 00:56:12,000
Speaker 1: forty when you put all those together, So I look

877
00:56:12,040 --> 00:56:16,720
Speaker 1: at that and you're just, you know, Cornyn, the question

878
00:56:16,960 --> 00:56:18,960
Speaker 1: is can Cornyn get to fifty?

879
00:56:19,239 --> 00:56:19,399
Speaker 3: Right?

880
00:56:19,600 --> 00:56:19,680
Speaker 1: Like?

881
00:56:19,800 --> 00:56:20,000
Speaker 3: You know?

882
00:56:20,480 --> 00:56:25,799
Speaker 1: This is you start to look and I it's you know,

883
00:56:25,840 --> 00:56:29,160
Speaker 1: it's fascinating. I'm gonna share an anecdote with you. I

884
00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:32,440
Speaker 1: was running some errands on Wednesday morning, and you know,

885
00:56:32,480 --> 00:56:34,719
Speaker 1: you know, you live in your neighborhood, you have the

886
00:56:34,719 --> 00:56:38,040
Speaker 1: same people you run into, and you know, and and

887
00:56:38,120 --> 00:56:40,200
Speaker 1: these are people that are not political people, but they

888
00:56:40,200 --> 00:56:42,000
Speaker 1: know what I do for a living. And you know,

889
00:56:42,120 --> 00:56:45,200
Speaker 1: I was ran into one of these acquaintances and I said, yeah,

890
00:56:45,200 --> 00:56:47,759
Speaker 1: I'm tired. I was covering the Texas primaries. You know,

891
00:56:47,800 --> 00:56:49,920
Speaker 1: I'm just sort of groggy, sorry or something like that.

892
00:56:50,000 --> 00:56:53,200
Speaker 1: And this person said, oh, those were last night. He goes,

893
00:56:53,360 --> 00:56:56,480
Speaker 1: so what happened? And you know, meaning you know, and

894
00:56:56,560 --> 00:56:58,799
Speaker 1: I said, and he said, who won that Democratic race?

895
00:56:58,800 --> 00:57:01,399
Speaker 1: And I said, the young pastor did Tyllarrico. He goes, oh,

896
00:57:01,480 --> 00:57:03,799
Speaker 1: I'm relieved. He goes, you know, I just exhausted from

897
00:57:03,840 --> 00:57:07,480
Speaker 1: the bomb throwers. And it was just, you know, we've

898
00:57:07,520 --> 00:57:10,520
Speaker 1: been having this debate, Chris, right, which is where is

899
00:57:10,560 --> 00:57:14,440
Speaker 1: the Democratic primary electorate? Is it in fight mode or

900
00:57:14,480 --> 00:57:16,800
Speaker 1: is it in exhaustion mode? And in twenty eighteen it

901
00:57:16,840 --> 00:57:20,200
Speaker 1: felt exhaustion right. They were in twenty twenty, twenty eighteen

902
00:57:20,200 --> 00:57:22,760
Speaker 1: and twenty twenty it was less fight back and more like,

903
00:57:22,880 --> 00:57:26,400
Speaker 1: this is crazy, let's have a reset, and they're all

904
00:57:26,480 --> 00:57:29,760
Speaker 1: The messaging was sort of around that. All the candidates

905
00:57:29,920 --> 00:57:33,000
Speaker 1: sort of leaned into that, whether you're Alyssa Slotkin and

906
00:57:33,120 --> 00:57:37,160
Speaker 1: yet this first year of Trump's second term, we've seen

907
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:41,240
Speaker 1: the fighters, whether it's Gavin Newsom in the presidential stakes

908
00:57:41,360 --> 00:57:43,720
Speaker 1: or frankly, it was Jasmine Crockett who jumped out sort

909
00:57:43,760 --> 00:57:45,840
Speaker 1: of tortoise and hair type of mindset, right. She jumped

910
00:57:45,880 --> 00:57:48,160
Speaker 1: out early and was doing better than I think a

911
00:57:48,160 --> 00:57:50,240
Speaker 1: lot of us expected, and we thought, oh boy, this

912
00:57:50,240 --> 00:57:53,800
Speaker 1: this fighter mentality maybe getting you know, Democrats maybe they

913
00:57:53,800 --> 00:57:56,200
Speaker 1: want to punch her. They don't necessarily want a preacher,

914
00:57:57,000 --> 00:57:59,960
Speaker 1: and yet maybe they do. You know, you look at

915
00:58:00,160 --> 00:58:03,840
Speaker 1: the twenty then you look at the Virginia New Jersey races. Yeah,

916
00:58:03,920 --> 00:58:08,840
Speaker 1: and you look at the the style of Mom Donnie Okay,

917
00:58:08,840 --> 00:58:12,480
Speaker 1: which is moderate in tone even if it's progressive total

918
00:58:14,080 --> 00:58:17,760
Speaker 1: and you're asked and you're like, maybe Gavin Newsom has

919
00:58:17,800 --> 00:58:19,760
Speaker 1: this wrong, Maybe he's making a mistake.

920
00:58:20,560 --> 00:58:22,480
Speaker 4: It's so funny that you said that, because one of

921
00:58:22,520 --> 00:58:24,959
Speaker 4: the things I really like, it's always hard. I'll first

922
00:58:24,960 --> 00:58:27,959
Speaker 4: say it's always hard when we're live and we're trying

923
00:58:28,000 --> 00:58:31,040
Speaker 4: to analyze in real time, you're not totally sure where

924
00:58:31,040 --> 00:58:33,200
Speaker 4: the votes are coming from, and you obviously don't have

925
00:58:33,240 --> 00:58:34,960
Speaker 4: a minute to kind of step back and just be like,

926
00:58:35,200 --> 00:58:37,440
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go through each race. I'm gonna look at

927
00:58:37,480 --> 00:58:39,160
Speaker 4: each race and be like, oh, that's interesting, that's not

928
00:58:39,640 --> 00:58:42,800
Speaker 4: It's hard to have like deeper thoughts. That's why I

929
00:58:42,920 --> 00:58:45,920
Speaker 4: like a couple of days after you can sort through it.

930
00:58:46,240 --> 00:58:49,320
Speaker 4: I was on Wednesday morning, I was just looking at

931
00:58:49,320 --> 00:58:51,280
Speaker 4: the results, and I was thinking about the conversations you

932
00:58:51,320 --> 00:58:53,880
Speaker 4: and I have had in the run up to this

933
00:58:54,000 --> 00:58:56,960
Speaker 4: Tallarico Crockett, which is that a lot of the national

934
00:58:56,960 --> 00:58:59,840
Speaker 4: media has painted this as liberal Jasmine Crockett against my

935
00:59:00,600 --> 00:59:03,040
Speaker 4: James tell Rico, which is totally wrong. And I'll point

936
00:59:03,040 --> 00:59:05,640
Speaker 4: you to there's a great stat out there. There's a

937
00:59:05,640 --> 00:59:08,880
Speaker 4: great map online that shows that in the counties that

938
00:59:09,520 --> 00:59:13,280
Speaker 4: Bernie Sanders won in the Texas primary.

939
00:59:13,520 --> 00:59:16,160
Speaker 3: Tell Rico won by forty points. I mean, the reason that.

940
00:59:16,160 --> 00:59:18,880
Speaker 4: He won is because of the left. Crockett was that

941
00:59:19,080 --> 00:59:21,720
Speaker 4: was never a that was never a governing dynamic. But

942
00:59:22,280 --> 00:59:23,960
Speaker 4: the other thing I was thinking about, to your point,

943
00:59:24,040 --> 00:59:27,560
Speaker 4: is like the fighter versus uniter, or the you know,

944
00:59:27,640 --> 00:59:31,440
Speaker 4: the the over partisan versus the kind of I don't

945
00:59:31,440 --> 00:59:34,040
Speaker 4: want to call Tallary called bipartisan, but a lot less

946
00:59:34,040 --> 00:59:35,040
Speaker 4: partisan energy.

947
00:59:35,080 --> 00:59:36,160
Speaker 3: And I was thinking, you know what.

948
00:59:36,080 --> 00:59:39,120
Speaker 4: Like it's one data point, but if I'm Pete Boodagee

949
00:59:39,360 --> 00:59:40,960
Speaker 4: or like a Shapiro.

950
00:59:41,160 --> 00:59:44,160
Speaker 1: I feel like a bit Andy Bisher.

951
00:59:44,320 --> 00:59:48,200
Speaker 4: I felt a little bit better after on the day

952
00:59:48,320 --> 00:59:50,880
Speaker 4: after than I did the day before. And again it's

953
00:59:50,880 --> 00:59:53,880
Speaker 4: one data point, like if Graham Platner in Maine goes

954
00:59:53,880 --> 00:59:56,600
Speaker 4: and beach Janet Mills by thirty points, Okay, well, got

955
00:59:56,600 --> 00:59:58,560
Speaker 4: to have in a different conversation, right, you.

956
00:59:58,520 --> 01:00:01,720
Speaker 1: Know I would also, I don't want to discount the

957
01:00:01,760 --> 01:00:05,240
Speaker 1: following phenomenon, which is there's you know, when you've been

958
01:00:05,320 --> 01:00:08,080
Speaker 1: beaten to a pulp like Texas Democrats have been for

959
01:00:08,120 --> 01:00:13,120
Speaker 1: the last twenty years, you're you're like anything, you know,

960
01:00:13,200 --> 01:00:16,760
Speaker 1: there's there's a I'm going to quote an old Eddie

961
01:00:16,800 --> 01:00:18,600
Speaker 1: Murphy stand up line. It is like when you're a

962
01:00:18,600 --> 01:00:21,600
Speaker 1: starving person, any cracker tastes like our ritz, you know,

963
01:00:21,680 --> 01:00:24,320
Speaker 1: and he's like, oh man, this is a great cracker.

964
01:00:24,400 --> 01:00:27,760
Speaker 1: When you're starving, anything tastes like our rits, right, and

965
01:00:28,680 --> 01:00:32,440
Speaker 1: it is so that there is you know, this is

966
01:00:32,440 --> 01:00:34,880
Speaker 1: why you know, one primary does not make a trend,

967
01:00:34,920 --> 01:00:36,520
Speaker 1: and you have to wait and we have to watch

968
01:00:36,560 --> 01:00:39,720
Speaker 1: and look Illinois in two weeks presents. You know, there's

969
01:00:39,720 --> 01:00:41,760
Speaker 1: all sorts of flavors of Democrats you can pick from

970
01:00:41,800 --> 01:00:45,560
Speaker 1: in that Democratic primary in Illinois. That frankly, I think

971
01:00:45,600 --> 01:00:48,320
Speaker 1: it's been hijacked by big money in a way that

972
01:00:48,480 --> 01:00:52,400
Speaker 1: gosh to two extraordinary methods. But let's put a pin

973
01:00:52,440 --> 01:00:56,120
Speaker 1: in that buying the office, no, no doubt. But when

974
01:00:56,160 --> 01:00:58,680
Speaker 1: you what you have, so I you know, is this

975
01:00:58,760 --> 01:01:02,600
Speaker 1: a Texas Democrat are exhausted and they're looking for a winner,

976
01:01:03,000 --> 01:01:05,200
Speaker 1: you know? Or is this you know? So that's that'd

977
01:01:05,200 --> 01:01:06,640
Speaker 1: be the only caution I want to put in here.

978
01:01:06,640 --> 01:01:09,120
Speaker 1: But I have to say. Nate Silver wrote a really

979
01:01:09,200 --> 01:01:15,680
Speaker 1: interesting piece this morning on Wednesday about kid tell Rico

980
01:01:15,760 --> 01:01:19,120
Speaker 1: win correct and it was I I was talking about

981
01:01:19,160 --> 01:01:23,280
Speaker 1: this issue of partisan versus moderate which is that we

982
01:01:24,080 --> 01:01:27,800
Speaker 1: and he correctly said a lot of sort of inexperienced

983
01:01:27,920 --> 01:01:30,520
Speaker 1: I call him in a you know, the problem with

984
01:01:30,680 --> 01:01:33,040
Speaker 1: big mainstream media these days, or whatever's left of it,

985
01:01:33,080 --> 01:01:36,000
Speaker 1: is that there's a lot of important legacy titles with

986
01:01:36,040 --> 01:01:39,120
Speaker 1: a lot of inexperienced political reporters, you know, who think

987
01:01:39,160 --> 01:01:42,120
Speaker 1: politics started, you know after, you know, when Donald Trump

988
01:01:42,120 --> 01:01:44,959
Speaker 1: came down the escalator, and don't really have a lot

989
01:01:44,960 --> 01:01:47,680
Speaker 1: of experience beyond sort of the last eight to ten

990
01:01:47,760 --> 01:01:51,840
Speaker 1: years of American politics, and and so you know the

991
01:01:51,840 --> 01:01:56,240
Speaker 1: difference between partisan. You can be moderate and temperament and

992
01:01:56,360 --> 01:02:00,680
Speaker 1: still very ideologically either conservative or modern. So I'll give

993
01:02:00,680 --> 01:02:01,240
Speaker 1: you you know.

994
01:02:01,360 --> 01:02:03,080
Speaker 3: And that's mom Donnie, I think is such a good

995
01:02:03,080 --> 01:02:03,640
Speaker 3: example of that.

996
01:02:03,680 --> 01:02:03,960
Speaker 1: People.

997
01:02:04,480 --> 01:02:05,200
Speaker 3: How could he go and.

998
01:02:05,160 --> 01:02:07,920
Speaker 4: Get along with Trump because he's temperamentially modern, even though

999
01:02:07,960 --> 01:02:10,000
Speaker 4: on a policy perspective he's very very liberal.

1000
01:02:10,320 --> 01:02:14,400
Speaker 1: So you know, one of the most conservative senators that

1001
01:02:14,640 --> 01:02:17,360
Speaker 1: Florida's ever had, and arguably more conservative than the two

1002
01:02:17,400 --> 01:02:19,480
Speaker 1: senators that they have at the moment, was a guy

1003
01:02:19,520 --> 01:02:23,520
Speaker 1: named Connie Mack. Totally honey, Connie Mack. I used to

1004
01:02:23,520 --> 01:02:27,000
Speaker 1: call him the conservative with a smile because when he

1005
01:02:27,080 --> 01:02:29,600
Speaker 1: ran as a conservative, and he ran when he won

1006
01:02:29,600 --> 01:02:34,600
Speaker 1: an eighty eight uh, he won, I think despite his ideology,

1007
01:02:34,760 --> 01:02:37,520
Speaker 1: but it was because he was just simply a nice

1008
01:02:37,600 --> 01:02:40,560
Speaker 1: guy that he was. Connie Mack your pal, and he

1009
01:02:40,680 --> 01:02:42,880
Speaker 1: was just sort of and he always was. He was

1010
01:02:43,320 --> 01:02:46,520
Speaker 1: he's always it goes. Reagan is the great you know example,

1011
01:02:46,560 --> 01:02:49,560
Speaker 1: and he was making Reagan which was, hey, look, if

1012
01:02:49,560 --> 01:02:53,640
Speaker 1: you're going to sell austerity, you ought to be don't

1013
01:02:53,520 --> 01:02:55,760
Speaker 1: be with a smile, don't be a dick.

1014
01:02:56,040 --> 01:02:59,160
Speaker 4: You know, yeah, exactly, you know, it's a simple lesson.

1015
01:02:59,240 --> 01:03:02,120
Speaker 4: But it's because I was thinking about that with Chip Roy.

1016
01:03:02,200 --> 01:03:04,960
Speaker 1: Remembervatism with George W.

1017
01:03:05,080 --> 01:03:08,960
Speaker 4: Bush, And I know, like Chip Roy is kind of unlikable,

1018
01:03:09,040 --> 01:03:10,720
Speaker 4: do you know what I mean? And he got pummeled

1019
01:03:10,720 --> 01:03:12,720
Speaker 4: in the Attorney General's race, like it does matter. We

1020
01:03:12,720 --> 01:03:15,680
Speaker 4: talk about we always talk about Tim Burchett. Tim Burchett

1021
01:03:15,760 --> 01:03:19,160
Speaker 4: is like among the most conservative members of Congress, but

1022
01:03:19,280 --> 01:03:21,800
Speaker 4: like Algender, a Consecrtez loves him because he's like a

1023
01:03:22,120 --> 01:03:23,880
Speaker 4: he's like a It's exactly what you said.

1024
01:03:24,200 --> 01:03:28,280
Speaker 3: He's not overly partisan, even though he's very conservative.

1025
01:03:28,320 --> 01:03:31,880
Speaker 1: Another example on the right Mike Pence. Mike Pence, you know,

1026
01:03:31,960 --> 01:03:34,200
Speaker 1: lived in the same neighborhood I'd lived in for a while.

1027
01:03:34,320 --> 01:03:36,080
Speaker 1: Everybody loved him. I don't know if anybody would have

1028
01:03:36,080 --> 01:03:38,840
Speaker 1: ever voted for him, Okay, in the neighborhood. He was

1029
01:03:38,960 --> 01:03:41,520
Speaker 1: very you know, and yet he was the guy that

1030
01:03:41,720 --> 01:03:43,800
Speaker 1: you know, would bring in your garbage cans if you

1031
01:03:43,840 --> 01:03:45,760
Speaker 1: were if you didn't have a chance to do it

1032
01:03:45,800 --> 01:03:47,479
Speaker 1: because you were late coming.

1033
01:03:47,640 --> 01:03:49,800
Speaker 4: And I think people don't understand that. I think that's

1034
01:03:49,840 --> 01:03:51,760
Speaker 4: such an important.

1035
01:03:51,840 --> 01:03:55,320
Speaker 1: Intall Rico may have this, Yeah, and it may matter

1036
01:03:55,480 --> 01:03:59,600
Speaker 1: more to Texans than perhaps it does to folks in Illinois,

1037
01:03:59,680 --> 01:04:01,440
Speaker 1: or perhaps it does. I mean, and so I I

1038
01:04:02,000 --> 01:04:05,360
Speaker 1: but but there is something about temperament here and I

1039
01:04:05,360 --> 01:04:07,360
Speaker 1: think we're we're you know, we're all trying to figure

1040
01:04:07,360 --> 01:04:10,440
Speaker 1: this out in this second Trump term, which is our Democrats.

1041
01:04:10,440 --> 01:04:12,640
Speaker 1: And the thing is, if you're online, if you're a

1042
01:04:12,680 --> 01:04:17,200
Speaker 1: pod Save America Democrat, you're you're on edge, You're.

1043
01:04:17,120 --> 01:04:20,320
Speaker 3: You're midas touch Democrat. You hate him and everything he does.

1044
01:04:20,720 --> 01:04:25,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you know, if you're sort of not, if

1045
01:04:25,120 --> 01:04:27,720
Speaker 1: you're trying to tune it out and you're you're you're

1046
01:04:27,760 --> 01:04:30,640
Speaker 1: more looking, you know, but you're still you know, hopefully

1047
01:04:30,640 --> 01:04:32,400
Speaker 1: you're subscribing to YOU or I because you're like.

1048
01:04:32,360 --> 01:04:33,720
Speaker 3: Let's thinking some attention.

1049
01:04:34,000 --> 01:04:36,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you don't really want to be lectured all

1050
01:04:36,800 --> 01:04:38,880
Speaker 1: the time in the screen and made to feel like

1051
01:04:38,920 --> 01:04:42,680
Speaker 1: the sky is falling every second of the day. You're

1052
01:04:42,680 --> 01:04:44,840
Speaker 1: you're looking for change, but you're looking for a change

1053
01:04:44,840 --> 01:04:48,040
Speaker 1: in tone as much as a change in in in ideology.

1054
01:04:48,160 --> 01:04:52,080
Speaker 1: And look again, this maybe it's one state. It's one

1055
01:04:52,160 --> 01:04:55,200
Speaker 1: very big state. Yep, it's it's gigantic and.

1056
01:04:55,080 --> 01:04:57,720
Speaker 4: A ton of profile and a ton of attention. I

1057
01:04:57,720 --> 01:05:00,240
Speaker 4: I like the the main race is probably will be

1058
01:05:00,240 --> 01:05:04,600
Speaker 4: the clearest example of that. The choice, I also think

1059
01:05:04,680 --> 01:05:06,720
Speaker 4: it's a three way race, is a little more complicated.

1060
01:05:06,720 --> 01:05:09,600
Speaker 4: But in the Michigan Senate primary, you kind of have

1061
01:05:09,840 --> 01:05:12,080
Speaker 4: Hailey Stevens, the member of Congress, who's very much like

1062
01:05:12,280 --> 01:05:14,000
Speaker 4: I'm not going to talk about how terrible Trump is.

1063
01:05:14,000 --> 01:05:17,160
Speaker 4: You have Abdul l si Ed who's like Justice Democrat

1064
01:05:17,240 --> 01:05:19,960
Speaker 4: Bernie Sanders. And then I think McMorrow probably winds up

1065
01:05:19,960 --> 01:05:22,000
Speaker 4: being the Mallard. McMorrow winds up being the me who's

1066
01:05:22,040 --> 01:05:22,720
Speaker 4: kind of a hybrid.

1067
01:05:23,040 --> 01:05:25,520
Speaker 1: She's Goldilocks. Yeah, exactly right. But I don't know.

1068
01:05:25,600 --> 01:05:28,440
Speaker 4: But I mean there will be more data points in

1069
01:05:28,520 --> 01:05:32,560
Speaker 4: Look again, if Graham Platner beats Janet Mills by fifteen

1070
01:05:32,600 --> 01:05:35,480
Speaker 4: points in the main primary, you know that, then the

1071
01:05:35,560 --> 01:05:38,919
Speaker 4: tall Eco thing looks like just a data point that's

1072
01:05:38,960 --> 01:05:40,640
Speaker 4: contradicted by that data point, right, Like.

1073
01:05:40,600 --> 01:05:41,040
Speaker 3: We don't know?

1074
01:05:41,240 --> 01:05:44,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, let's talk. Let's have a little fun here.

1075
01:05:44,040 --> 01:05:47,640
Speaker 1: I was. I did this sort of scenario with a

1076
01:05:47,680 --> 01:05:52,120
Speaker 1: couple of people earlier, earlier today, and this is the following.

1077
01:05:52,840 --> 01:05:57,160
Speaker 1: If the Democrats had been the dominant political party in

1078
01:05:57,200 --> 01:06:01,320
Speaker 1: Texas for the last thirty years and the Republicans were

1079
01:06:01,320 --> 01:06:04,480
Speaker 1: the ones that have had a hard time winning general elections,

1080
01:06:05,080 --> 01:06:08,360
Speaker 1: does the Republican electorate become more mindful of quote unquote

1081
01:06:08,360 --> 01:06:11,960
Speaker 1: electability and and does the Democrat you know, and I

1082
01:06:12,000 --> 01:06:14,959
Speaker 1: say this in that the fact is we've actually seen

1083
01:06:15,000 --> 01:06:17,760
Speaker 1: this play out, right, Why does a moderate Republican like

1084
01:06:17,840 --> 01:06:22,320
Speaker 1: Larry Hogan successfully navigate a primary in Maryland that yes,

1085
01:06:22,360 --> 01:06:22,720
Speaker 1: he had a.

1086
01:06:22,640 --> 01:06:24,560
Speaker 3: Conservative Murphy Cracker thing.

1087
01:06:24,760 --> 01:06:27,440
Speaker 1: Right, You're like, well, maybe this guy can win, right,

1088
01:06:28,040 --> 01:06:31,000
Speaker 1: And you know, it's it's one of those that that

1089
01:06:31,160 --> 01:06:36,520
Speaker 1: Crockett probably wins. If Democrats had gotten comfortable winning one hundred.

1090
01:06:37,040 --> 01:06:41,760
Speaker 4: I think it's it's so much of it is expectations, right,

1091
01:06:41,920 --> 01:06:45,000
Speaker 4: if you've won and you control I mean, look, we're

1092
01:06:45,040 --> 01:06:47,200
Speaker 4: talking about this. You know Gary Morrow, right, is the

1093
01:06:47,280 --> 01:06:50,000
Speaker 4: last Democrat to win statewide in two thousand and.

1094
01:06:50,080 --> 01:06:53,440
Speaker 1: Four, No, nineteen eighty four, nineteen ninety four. I mean,

1095
01:06:53,480 --> 01:06:57,200
Speaker 1: that's a long ass time you were in college or

1096
01:06:57,240 --> 01:06:57,680
Speaker 1: high school.

1097
01:06:57,720 --> 01:06:58,000
Speaker 3: I was.

1098
01:06:58,120 --> 01:07:01,560
Speaker 4: I was graduating from Pace. That was my high school graduation,

1099
01:07:01,680 --> 01:07:04,480
Speaker 4: and I turned fifty a few days ago, So that

1100
01:07:04,560 --> 01:07:07,880
Speaker 4: tells you how long it was. Like, I do think

1101
01:07:07,920 --> 01:07:11,040
Speaker 4: there is a a an element of like, look, we

1102
01:07:11,120 --> 01:07:18,360
Speaker 4: don't have the luxury of picking the perfect. We have

1103
01:07:18,480 --> 01:07:22,440
Speaker 4: to vote with our head more than our heart. And

1104
01:07:22,520 --> 01:07:26,280
Speaker 4: I think that always is the case in places where

1105
01:07:27,040 --> 01:07:31,040
Speaker 4: you've been down one party has been down for an

1106
01:07:31,080 --> 01:07:33,520
Speaker 4: extended period of time, you are more willing to.

1107
01:07:33,440 --> 01:07:35,240
Speaker 3: Be like, it's not my cup of tea.

1108
01:07:35,280 --> 01:07:37,720
Speaker 4: But like, I've spent the last twenty five years under

1109
01:07:37,720 --> 01:07:38,600
Speaker 4: Democratic rule.

1110
01:07:38,960 --> 01:07:41,320
Speaker 3: So maybe Charlie Baker.

1111
01:07:41,000 --> 01:07:43,560
Speaker 4: As the governor of Massachusetts or whatever, you know, like

1112
01:07:43,880 --> 01:07:46,800
Speaker 4: he's probably too moderate for me, but like, you know, and.

1113
01:07:46,760 --> 01:07:49,560
Speaker 1: I think that that better than those liberals over there, right.

1114
01:07:49,480 --> 01:07:52,440
Speaker 4: Because you know what it's like to live under. If

1115
01:07:52,480 --> 01:07:56,280
Speaker 4: you're a Democrat in Texas, you've spent probably most of

1116
01:07:56,320 --> 01:08:00,520
Speaker 4: your adult life under almost unified Republican rule. So you

1117
01:08:00,640 --> 01:08:03,280
Speaker 4: now know, like, I'm not letting the perfect get in

1118
01:08:03,280 --> 01:08:05,640
Speaker 4: the way of the good here, right, And I do

1119
01:08:05,720 --> 01:08:08,480
Speaker 4: think I think that's human nature to do that.

1120
01:08:09,120 --> 01:08:10,960
Speaker 1: I don't want to let Texas go without picking a

1121
01:08:10,960 --> 01:08:14,000
Speaker 1: few knits, because you know, one of it was interesting

1122
01:08:14,080 --> 01:08:16,479
Speaker 1: last night, we had some we had you know, all

1123
01:08:16,520 --> 01:08:18,760
Speaker 1: of the as Missus Todd likes to say, she goes,

1124
01:08:18,760 --> 01:08:20,760
Speaker 1: I love the numbers guys that you guys have on

1125
01:08:20,880 --> 01:08:23,800
Speaker 1: the life nerves. Yeah, you know, because I say that,

1126
01:08:23,920 --> 01:08:28,120
Speaker 1: I say that lovingly. But if I had won, you know,

1127
01:08:28,240 --> 01:08:30,880
Speaker 1: there was this well hey, it just broke down the

1128
01:08:30,920 --> 01:08:33,320
Speaker 1: exact same way that Royce West and m J. Hagar

1129
01:08:33,360 --> 01:08:36,040
Speaker 1: broke down. And you're like, Okay, that's true, except you

1130
01:08:36,080 --> 01:08:39,200
Speaker 1: know what both Crockett and what Crockett had that that

1131
01:08:39,320 --> 01:08:43,120
Speaker 1: Royce West didn't have was money and attention and all.

1132
01:08:43,040 --> 01:08:46,040
Speaker 4: In a way bigger profile. Nobody except people like us

1133
01:08:46,120 --> 01:08:47,640
Speaker 4: even knew who Royce West was.

1134
01:08:48,240 --> 01:08:50,479
Speaker 1: So what I would the knits I'd pick here is

1135
01:08:50,520 --> 01:08:53,719
Speaker 1: that So I think I'm going to separate Jasmine Crockett

1136
01:08:53,720 --> 01:08:56,559
Speaker 1: political athlete right when you have like you know, you

1137
01:08:56,640 --> 01:09:03,120
Speaker 1: take the uh. A good example might be a let's

1138
01:09:03,160 --> 01:09:05,720
Speaker 1: take my son's favorite NBA team, the Phoenix Suns. He's

1139
01:09:05,800 --> 01:09:07,600
Speaker 1: very frustrated they have one of the best players in

1140
01:09:07,640 --> 01:09:11,640
Speaker 1: the NBA that that doesn't get enough enough attention and

1141
01:09:11,760 --> 01:09:14,840
Speaker 1: yet is it Booker's fault that he has a terrible

1142
01:09:14,880 --> 01:09:17,200
Speaker 1: infrastructure around him, that he's got a you know, a

1143
01:09:17,240 --> 01:09:19,880
Speaker 1: campaign manner, I mean an owner that's you know, way

1144
01:09:19,920 --> 01:09:21,800
Speaker 1: to this right that the big you know all the

1145
01:09:22,040 --> 01:09:24,600
Speaker 1: The point is is that so here she was a

1146
01:09:24,720 --> 01:09:29,160
Speaker 1: really good political athlete who had a terrible infrastructure run

1147
01:09:29,240 --> 01:09:31,400
Speaker 1: because I at the end of the day, she did

1148
01:09:31,439 --> 01:09:33,960
Speaker 1: not run a good campaign. She did not she did

1149
01:09:34,040 --> 01:09:37,040
Speaker 1: not have a statewide organization. She was sort of she

1150
01:09:37,320 --> 01:09:39,800
Speaker 1: you know. The problem is it strikes me as she

1151
01:09:39,920 --> 01:09:43,200
Speaker 1: was the candidate and the manager, and you have to

1152
01:09:43,280 --> 01:09:47,120
Speaker 1: have versus Talla Rico clearly had an organization. I mean, yeah,

1153
01:09:47,120 --> 01:09:47,599
Speaker 1: he's the.

1154
01:09:47,439 --> 01:09:50,360
Speaker 3: Real people Liz Smith who's had successful that's not just.

1155
01:09:50,320 --> 01:09:54,040
Speaker 1: That people, but they clearly had a ground operation. Yeah,

1156
01:09:54,080 --> 01:09:55,280
Speaker 1: clearly we're.

1157
01:09:55,080 --> 01:09:58,160
Speaker 4: Thinking of a real Grand Valley, right, and that's that's

1158
01:09:58,160 --> 01:09:58,679
Speaker 4: how he won.

1159
01:10:07,000 --> 01:10:09,960
Speaker 1: And that should scare the Jesus out of Republicans, right

1160
01:10:10,040 --> 01:10:14,320
Speaker 1: if Talla Rico can essentially recreate what Veto did in

1161
01:10:14,360 --> 01:10:16,519
Speaker 1: the Rio Grand Valley, because people forget this, Beto cleaned

1162
01:10:16,600 --> 01:10:20,240
Speaker 1: up in the Rio Grand Valley against Cruz. His problem, frankly,

1163
01:10:20,280 --> 01:10:22,360
Speaker 1: I think was he didn't do as well. And this

1164
01:10:22,520 --> 01:10:24,839
Speaker 1: was a critic of him. He was almost so obsessed

1165
01:10:24,880 --> 01:10:28,280
Speaker 1: with the Rio Grand Valley that he sort of didn't

1166
01:10:28,360 --> 01:10:30,559
Speaker 1: run up the score in the urban areas that arguably

1167
01:10:30,560 --> 01:10:33,800
Speaker 1: he should have run it. And and you know this

1168
01:10:34,040 --> 01:10:36,200
Speaker 1: was you know, this is the the if you were

1169
01:10:36,200 --> 01:10:38,360
Speaker 1: going to make the case for Crockett on the ticket,

1170
01:10:38,920 --> 01:10:41,160
Speaker 1: it would have been, well, she's not gonna you know,

1171
01:10:41,200 --> 01:10:43,240
Speaker 1: the urban areas are going to turn out in greater numbers,

1172
01:10:44,240 --> 01:10:47,240
Speaker 1: you know, so then you just send her to to

1173
01:10:47,360 --> 01:10:49,280
Speaker 1: the Rio Grand Valley and see if she can, you know,

1174
01:10:50,080 --> 01:10:53,200
Speaker 1: fight to a draw among Latino voters. So it is

1175
01:10:53,600 --> 01:10:56,800
Speaker 1: it is clear that she didn't run a statewide campaign. No,

1176
01:10:57,360 --> 01:11:02,519
Speaker 1: And and so you know, look, I think that here's

1177
01:11:02,560 --> 01:11:05,040
Speaker 1: what I've I feel like her decision to concede quickly,

1178
01:11:06,000 --> 01:11:09,800
Speaker 1: she conceded quicker than I fully expected, tells me she

1179
01:11:09,840 --> 01:11:13,400
Speaker 1: wants a future in the party. And that says a

1180
01:11:13,400 --> 01:11:17,320
Speaker 1: lot cruises up soon. And who's to say, you know,

1181
01:11:18,160 --> 01:11:20,360
Speaker 1: we've seen plenty of places where the second time you

1182
01:11:20,439 --> 01:11:22,840
Speaker 1: run you maybe she'll figure out that she needs to

1183
01:11:22,840 --> 01:11:29,320
Speaker 1: not always run hot, right, she's especially it's always in

1184
01:11:29,320 --> 01:11:32,960
Speaker 1: fifth gear. She won't she won't necessarily have to do

1185
01:11:33,000 --> 01:11:35,960
Speaker 1: that the next time. You know, does she have does

1186
01:11:36,000 --> 01:11:38,280
Speaker 1: she have an ability to pivot and all this stuff?

1187
01:11:38,640 --> 01:11:41,519
Speaker 1: And what kind of campaign? What kind of candidate is

1188
01:11:41,560 --> 01:11:44,120
Speaker 1: she if she has an actual campaign infrastructure? Right now, look,

1189
01:11:44,160 --> 01:11:47,280
Speaker 1: here's stuff I don't know. I don't know whether she's

1190
01:11:47,320 --> 01:11:50,800
Speaker 1: easy to that she will listen to an infrastructure. Right,

1191
01:11:50,880 --> 01:11:52,840
Speaker 1: We don't know those things. I don't you know, I'm

1192
01:11:52,880 --> 01:11:54,439
Speaker 1: not going to sit here and say I know her

1193
01:11:54,560 --> 01:11:58,800
Speaker 1: very well, but I don't think she's erratic, and I

1194
01:11:58,840 --> 01:12:00,679
Speaker 1: don't think she makes the same miss twice.

1195
01:12:00,840 --> 01:12:03,320
Speaker 4: I thought it was very First of all, one thing

1196
01:12:03,360 --> 01:12:06,240
Speaker 4: that I just looked up, she's only forty four years old. Okay,

1197
01:12:06,280 --> 01:12:09,280
Speaker 4: so put that, I think it is unlikely this is

1198
01:12:09,320 --> 01:12:13,280
Speaker 4: the last you've ever heard from her politically. Second, I

1199
01:12:13,320 --> 01:12:17,040
Speaker 4: when I got up Wednesday morning and I saw that

1200
01:12:17,080 --> 01:12:21,160
Speaker 4: she had conceded and endorsed Tall Rico and then put

1201
01:12:21,200 --> 01:12:24,679
Speaker 4: on Twitter, you know we're all unified, I thought, well,

1202
01:12:24,680 --> 01:12:28,120
Speaker 4: she's probably gonna run for something like that? Is that

1203
01:12:28,320 --> 01:12:30,960
Speaker 4: is like the Democrat First of all, it's the Democratic

1204
01:12:31,000 --> 01:12:35,760
Speaker 4: dream scenario, right, like they need like eight things to go, right, Chuck,

1205
01:12:35,800 --> 01:12:38,360
Speaker 4: to even put yourself in a position where they might win,

1206
01:12:38,880 --> 01:12:41,280
Speaker 4: and one of those things was you could not have

1207
01:12:41,520 --> 01:12:46,280
Speaker 4: any look of particularly with Crockett being an African American woman,

1208
01:12:46,560 --> 01:12:49,599
Speaker 4: you could not have there be a vibe of, Oh,

1209
01:12:49,640 --> 01:12:52,040
Speaker 4: I don't really love the kind of campaign tallar Rico ran,

1210
01:12:52,080 --> 01:12:54,360
Speaker 4: and maybe I'll endorse them eventually, but it'll be right

1211
01:12:54,560 --> 01:12:56,599
Speaker 4: like she gave an unequivalental endorsement.

1212
01:12:57,000 --> 01:12:57,559
Speaker 3: I agree.

1213
01:12:57,640 --> 01:12:59,760
Speaker 4: I will say I think she started too late, right,

1214
01:13:00,000 --> 01:13:02,479
Speaker 4: and she got into late for the size of the primary.

1215
01:13:02,560 --> 01:13:04,280
Speaker 4: Tel Rico had been in for a really long time,

1216
01:13:04,760 --> 01:13:07,519
Speaker 4: and I don't if you look at the numbers. She

1217
01:13:07,840 --> 01:13:11,280
Speaker 4: did well where she was known. She did well on

1218
01:13:11,320 --> 01:13:14,479
Speaker 4: the Dallas media market. She did pretty well in Harris

1219
01:13:14,520 --> 01:13:18,280
Speaker 4: County in Houston, but man, like the entire if you

1220
01:13:18,600 --> 01:13:23,720
Speaker 4: split the state vertically, she just gets destroyed right in

1221
01:13:23,800 --> 01:13:25,360
Speaker 4: everything in the western part of the state.

1222
01:13:25,680 --> 01:13:28,160
Speaker 1: It just struck. It looks like a campaign that was

1223
01:13:28,200 --> 01:13:31,880
Speaker 1: not complete, right, a campaign infrastructure that was just incomplete.

1224
01:13:31,920 --> 01:13:34,519
Speaker 1: She was the classic building it as the plane is

1225
01:13:34,560 --> 01:13:35,439
Speaker 1: taking off and.

1226
01:13:35,439 --> 01:13:38,240
Speaker 4: A house member, right, A house members never run statewide

1227
01:13:38,280 --> 01:13:40,360
Speaker 4: and it's not like running statewide in my home state

1228
01:13:40,400 --> 01:13:43,080
Speaker 4: of Connecticut, where it's like you're if you're a member

1229
01:13:43,120 --> 01:13:46,080
Speaker 4: of Congress who represent the twenty percent of the of

1230
01:13:46,160 --> 01:13:48,120
Speaker 4: the state. You rep what what are the thirty six

1231
01:13:48,160 --> 01:13:49,880
Speaker 4: members of Congress and Techo? I mean you read nobody

1232
01:13:49,920 --> 01:13:52,080
Speaker 4: goes to the hell you are it' say California.

1233
01:13:52,520 --> 01:13:56,600
Speaker 1: One more little uh? You know how you sort of

1234
01:13:57,360 --> 01:14:00,639
Speaker 1: you see an event, you see something happen, and you're like, hmm,

1235
01:14:00,920 --> 01:14:03,519
Speaker 1: there's more to this story. So the Kamala Harris last

1236
01:14:03,520 --> 01:14:08,120
Speaker 1: minute endorsement, yes, all right, I promise you there's a

1237
01:14:08,160 --> 01:14:11,400
Speaker 1: TikTok to do on this, right. My guess is Crockett

1238
01:14:11,800 --> 01:14:16,040
Speaker 1: tried to get this weeks ago, of course, and I'm

1239
01:14:16,080 --> 01:14:20,439
Speaker 1: sure Crockett, who's part of the Black sorority, She's a

1240
01:14:20,520 --> 01:14:24,479
Speaker 1: member of one of the big black those Kamala Harris,

1241
01:14:24,760 --> 01:14:26,960
Speaker 1: this is one of those sisterhood things. Right are you

1242
01:14:27,040 --> 01:14:27,559
Speaker 1: going to back?

1243
01:14:28,400 --> 01:14:29,400
Speaker 3: And so.

1244
01:14:31,000 --> 01:14:34,400
Speaker 1: You know, this strikes me as a classic Kamala Harris risk,

1245
01:14:34,720 --> 01:14:39,200
Speaker 1: you know, waiting too long, being indecisive. But oh am

1246
01:14:39,240 --> 01:14:40,640
Speaker 1: I going to get involved? Am I not going to

1247
01:14:40,680 --> 01:14:42,840
Speaker 1: get involved? All right? If I, well, boy, it looks

1248
01:14:42,840 --> 01:14:45,240
Speaker 1: bad if I don't back the black woman. But you know,

1249
01:14:45,320 --> 01:14:47,479
Speaker 1: and then when does she do it? When it's too

1250
01:14:47,520 --> 01:14:50,840
Speaker 1: late to help? So she gets all the worst parts

1251
01:14:50,880 --> 01:14:53,280
Speaker 1: of this, which she did it after early.

1252
01:14:53,120 --> 01:14:54,439
Speaker 3: Vote was over right.

1253
01:14:54,479 --> 01:14:58,040
Speaker 1: I mean it makes no sense, it really made it

1254
01:14:58,080 --> 01:15:02,720
Speaker 1: was really just strategically in act and it what it

1255
01:15:03,160 --> 01:15:06,720
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what my suspicion is is that this

1256
01:15:06,880 --> 01:15:11,360
Speaker 1: is hand ringing inside a Karis world. Should they get

1257
01:15:11,400 --> 01:15:14,320
Speaker 1: into these things? Could they not get into these things?

1258
01:15:14,600 --> 01:15:16,559
Speaker 1: And then when you when you wring your hands and

1259
01:15:16,600 --> 01:15:19,280
Speaker 1: this was, by the way, this is the knock against

1260
01:15:19,280 --> 01:15:21,519
Speaker 1: her goes back to her original presidential campaign. It's going

1261
01:15:21,560 --> 01:15:23,080
Speaker 1: to be for medicare for all? Is she not going

1262
01:15:23,120 --> 01:15:27,040
Speaker 1: to be for medicare you know? Liberal? And you know,

1263
01:15:27,800 --> 01:15:30,200
Speaker 1: you know it's some sometimes you are who you are,

1264
01:15:30,920 --> 01:15:33,160
Speaker 1: and this is who she is, right, which is she's

1265
01:15:33,240 --> 01:15:36,240
Speaker 1: never been comfortable with the political identity that other people

1266
01:15:36,280 --> 01:15:39,120
Speaker 1: have of her, which means she is always second guess

1267
01:15:39,160 --> 01:15:42,599
Speaker 1: her own political identity. Is she the prosecutor, is she

1268
01:15:42,760 --> 01:15:45,800
Speaker 1: the defendant? Is he the social justice democrat? Is she

1269
01:15:45,880 --> 01:15:53,040
Speaker 1: the moderate pragmatist or is she the progressive disruptor? And

1270
01:15:53,640 --> 01:15:57,120
Speaker 1: you know, even in how she handled this endorsement totally

1271
01:15:57,280 --> 01:16:00,679
Speaker 1: you know, to me, it was like, well, I don't

1272
01:16:00,760 --> 01:16:04,680
Speaker 1: you know, I don't you know, I don't understand what

1273
01:16:04,760 --> 01:16:06,840
Speaker 1: took so long other than it's clear it came from

1274
01:16:06,840 --> 01:16:09,840
Speaker 1: her side, because it just it made no sense in

1275
01:16:09,920 --> 01:16:11,240
Speaker 1: the property sense.

1276
01:16:11,520 --> 01:16:14,160
Speaker 4: It makes no sense because it's exactly what you said, Like,

1277
01:16:14,680 --> 01:16:17,720
Speaker 4: let's just let's just first of all, you're exactly right.

1278
01:16:17,800 --> 01:16:20,960
Speaker 3: This is not in a vacuum. This is consistent with

1279
01:16:21,120 --> 01:16:25,320
Speaker 3: indecision and hand ringing that has gone literally back to

1280
01:16:25,840 --> 01:16:28,280
Speaker 3: when she first ran for president. Now I would argue

1281
01:16:28,280 --> 01:16:30,840
Speaker 3: before that, but yeah, president.

1282
01:16:31,080 --> 01:16:33,840
Speaker 4: It's also like, let's just let's just look at it, like,

1283
01:16:33,960 --> 01:16:39,400
Speaker 4: as in a sterile political decision, if you are going

1284
01:16:39,600 --> 01:16:44,960
Speaker 4: to endorse, you do it so that you get the

1285
01:16:44,960 --> 01:16:50,040
Speaker 4: potential upside. If you endorse two weeks ago, a Crockett wins,

1286
01:16:50,320 --> 01:16:53,679
Speaker 4: you say, oh, crocket one, I did that the classic

1287
01:16:53,720 --> 01:16:58,400
Speaker 4: Donald Trump. Why the hell would you endorse where you

1288
01:16:58,640 --> 01:17:01,480
Speaker 4: literally there's no win scenario.

1289
01:17:01,960 --> 01:17:05,120
Speaker 3: If Crockett wins, everyone like us is gonna be like

1290
01:17:05,320 --> 01:17:07,559
Speaker 3: she endorsed her two days before the election.

1291
01:17:08,040 --> 01:17:11,479
Speaker 4: If it loses, people like us as we're doing it

1292
01:17:11,560 --> 01:17:12,760
Speaker 4: to see, what the hell are you doing?

1293
01:17:12,800 --> 01:17:13,840
Speaker 3: Why did you endorse solely?

1294
01:17:14,360 --> 01:17:17,640
Speaker 1: I mean maybe if Crockett had narrowly eked it out,

1295
01:17:17,680 --> 01:17:20,040
Speaker 1: perhaps Kamala would have been seen as sort of the

1296
01:17:20,280 --> 01:17:22,840
Speaker 1: the tipping point at the end. That's about the only

1297
01:17:23,080 --> 01:17:24,360
Speaker 1: try to think, no.

1298
01:17:24,320 --> 01:17:27,439
Speaker 4: Sense to endorse that late in the game, because you're

1299
01:17:27,640 --> 01:17:30,040
Speaker 4: not going to get credit for it.

1300
01:17:30,400 --> 01:17:33,879
Speaker 1: Look, it's sort of uh in the in the fantasy

1301
01:17:33,880 --> 01:17:36,200
Speaker 1: world where I have one hundred political reporters to assign

1302
01:17:36,280 --> 01:17:39,920
Speaker 1: stories to, I probably wouldn't assign the Hey, go figure

1303
01:17:39,960 --> 01:17:42,160
Speaker 1: out what took so long in the Kamala Harris endorsement

1304
01:17:42,160 --> 01:17:44,880
Speaker 1: A jazment Crockett. So this is one of those tiktoks

1305
01:17:44,880 --> 01:17:47,320
Speaker 1: that at some point I think, well, this is one

1306
01:17:47,320 --> 01:17:49,360
Speaker 1: of those we'll learn this story in like six months

1307
01:17:49,400 --> 01:17:52,040
Speaker 1: when somebody sort of as an aside, ask somebody about

1308
01:17:52,040 --> 01:17:54,600
Speaker 1: it and we get the full story. But there's I

1309
01:17:54,680 --> 01:17:58,120
Speaker 1: have a feeling that when we find out why this

1310
01:17:58,200 --> 01:18:01,439
Speaker 1: took so long, that it will fit the pattern of

1311
01:18:01,560 --> 01:18:05,640
Speaker 1: the Harris world's indecisiveness about her own political idea, and I.

1312
01:18:06,160 --> 01:18:09,439
Speaker 4: Think it will land ultimately as most of these things have,

1313
01:18:09,560 --> 01:18:13,560
Speaker 4: with her back on her right, not just the team,

1314
01:18:13,880 --> 01:18:15,960
Speaker 4: but back on her that she was like do I

1315
01:18:16,000 --> 01:18:17,880
Speaker 4: get involved? Do I not get involved? And there were

1316
01:18:17,880 --> 01:18:19,719
Speaker 4: some people saying get involved in there's some people saying

1317
01:18:19,720 --> 01:18:23,640
Speaker 4: not get involved like in every campaign, and she just

1318
01:18:23,800 --> 01:18:26,000
Speaker 4: waited to it, which is fascinating, by the way, because

1319
01:18:26,040 --> 01:18:28,400
Speaker 4: you know the other politician I always Democrat politician. I

1320
01:18:28,439 --> 01:18:30,679
Speaker 4: always think of who the knock on him was, always

1321
01:18:30,720 --> 01:18:32,160
Speaker 4: he's too indecisive.

1322
01:18:31,880 --> 01:18:34,160
Speaker 3: Joe Biden. I mean that is that was always the

1323
01:18:34,240 --> 01:18:36,599
Speaker 3: knock on Biden, like he can't make any decisions.

1324
01:18:36,640 --> 01:18:39,839
Speaker 4: It's why he didn't run for president's time around.

1325
01:18:40,120 --> 01:18:43,080
Speaker 1: It goes back to, Look, there are plenty of politicians

1326
01:18:43,120 --> 01:18:45,960
Speaker 1: who don't like to make enemies and they don't want

1327
01:18:45,960 --> 01:18:48,240
Speaker 1: to make anybody mad. And I'm sure you know in

1328
01:18:48,640 --> 01:18:52,280
Speaker 1: that to succeed. Look, and I want to pivot to

1329
01:18:52,280 --> 01:18:55,000
Speaker 1: something else. You know, there are certain candidates that also

1330
01:18:55,040 --> 01:18:59,760
Speaker 1: are are crowd pleasers in the moment and sometimes right

1331
01:18:59,800 --> 01:19:04,080
Speaker 1: this is the Donald Trump, uh, both positive and negative.

1332
01:19:04,080 --> 01:19:06,040
Speaker 1: He tells every crowd what they want to hear, ye

1333
01:19:06,600 --> 01:19:09,360
Speaker 1: in the moment, regardless of whether it's a contradiction to

1334
01:19:09,400 --> 01:19:14,519
Speaker 1: something he told somebody else. An, yeah, well, I have

1335
01:19:14,560 --> 01:19:17,040
Speaker 1: a feeling. Our friend Gavin Newsom pulled one of those

1336
01:19:17,320 --> 01:19:20,400
Speaker 1: on Tuesday night when he did a book interview with

1337
01:19:20,479 --> 01:19:23,719
Speaker 1: the pod Save America Guys, where he knew the audience

1338
01:19:23,800 --> 01:19:26,000
Speaker 1: was going to be super lefty. He knew where the

1339
01:19:26,000 --> 01:19:28,719
Speaker 1: Pod Save America guys are on, particularly in foreign policy

1340
01:19:28,760 --> 01:19:31,559
Speaker 1: and particularly when it comes to bb Net, Yahoo any

1341
01:19:31,720 --> 01:19:34,240
Speaker 1: and he ended up give it, telling them what they

1342
01:19:34,320 --> 01:19:37,000
Speaker 1: wanted to hear, using using phrases He's going to come

1343
01:19:37,040 --> 01:19:40,360
Speaker 1: to regret, like accusing Israel of being an apartheid nation,

1344
01:19:41,120 --> 01:19:44,320
Speaker 1: and it is it is, you know, it is when

1345
01:19:44,400 --> 01:19:47,920
Speaker 1: you use the language that is being used to target

1346
01:19:48,080 --> 01:19:51,960
Speaker 1: Jews left and right, and you're you're sort of giving

1347
01:19:52,000 --> 01:19:54,479
Speaker 1: aid and comfort with that terror, you know, but it was,

1348
01:19:55,280 --> 01:19:57,920
Speaker 1: you know, this is This is always something I've always

1349
01:19:57,920 --> 01:19:59,920
Speaker 1: worried about with Gavin is that he's always I mean,

1350
01:20:00,080 --> 01:20:01,960
Speaker 1: the irony is his book is still who he is.

1351
01:20:02,040 --> 01:20:04,599
Speaker 1: He's in a hurry. He's in a hurry to cement

1352
01:20:04,680 --> 01:20:07,920
Speaker 1: his status as the as the as the candidate for

1353
01:20:07,960 --> 01:20:12,679
Speaker 1: the angry Democratic base. Okay, but you know, I think

1354
01:20:12,720 --> 01:20:15,720
Speaker 1: that that has a low ceiling, and I you know,

1355
01:20:15,800 --> 01:20:18,400
Speaker 1: I don't think it's a I put it this way.

1356
01:20:19,000 --> 01:20:21,960
Speaker 1: I think he made a lot. He reminded a lot

1357
01:20:22,000 --> 01:20:24,679
Speaker 1: of people of why there's so much skepticism his ability

1358
01:20:24,680 --> 01:20:26,600
Speaker 1: to be a national candidate. When he went to me,

1359
01:20:26,680 --> 01:20:31,040
Speaker 1: when he went when he went as it just felt

1360
01:20:31,080 --> 01:20:33,000
Speaker 1: like he was pandering to the crowd. It didn't feel

1361
01:20:33,000 --> 01:20:34,120
Speaker 1: like a genuine flip.

1362
01:20:34,479 --> 01:20:37,599
Speaker 3: Well, and you know, we I think we did it.

1363
01:20:38,000 --> 01:20:40,519
Speaker 1: And I'll respect the flip. I'll respect the genuine flip.

1364
01:20:40,560 --> 01:20:42,599
Speaker 1: But here's what I would say, and I'm just look,

1365
01:20:42,680 --> 01:20:48,160
Speaker 1: I'm I'm are you is it a when you criticize

1366
01:20:48,160 --> 01:20:51,599
Speaker 1: the Trump administration? Is it America that does these things?

1367
01:20:51,680 --> 01:20:54,560
Speaker 1: Or is it the Trump administration? And this would be

1368
01:20:54,600 --> 01:20:56,479
Speaker 1: the you know, I would ask Gavin news from that.

1369
01:20:56,720 --> 01:20:58,640
Speaker 1: You know, do you you know if somebody says, you know,

1370
01:20:58,720 --> 01:21:01,680
Speaker 1: America is now you know a bunch of thugs that

1371
01:21:02,240 --> 01:21:05,160
Speaker 1: do this or that, or you know you're gonna attribute

1372
01:21:05,160 --> 01:21:07,600
Speaker 1: it to everybody that lives in the country. Do you

1373
01:21:07,640 --> 01:21:09,240
Speaker 1: do that in the United States? Why do we do

1374
01:21:09,240 --> 01:21:10,360
Speaker 1: that with Israel all the time?

1375
01:21:10,680 --> 01:21:15,360
Speaker 4: I I we talked at the end of twenty twenty

1376
01:21:15,400 --> 01:21:18,080
Speaker 4: five about who we thought had good years and bad years,

1377
01:21:18,080 --> 01:21:20,679
Speaker 4: and we both agreed that Gavin Newsom then had really

1378
01:21:20,720 --> 01:21:23,600
Speaker 4: a remarkable twenty twenty uf Fred he went from like

1379
01:21:24,800 --> 01:21:27,280
Speaker 4: to wow, Okay, like either he or Kamala Harris is

1380
01:21:27,280 --> 01:21:32,240
Speaker 4: the front runner. But I always remind people that remember

1381
01:21:32,320 --> 01:21:36,800
Speaker 4: how Gavin Newsom started twenty twenty five, he started a

1382
01:21:36,880 --> 01:21:42,599
Speaker 4: podcast that was expressly aimed at interviewing people with whom

1383
01:21:42,680 --> 01:21:45,400
Speaker 4: he disagreed. So he had Steve Bannon on, he had

1384
01:21:45,439 --> 01:21:49,360
Speaker 4: the late Charlie Charlie kirk on, and that clearly.

1385
01:21:49,080 --> 01:21:51,599
Speaker 3: Was a you know what, the Democratic Party is.

1386
01:21:51,560 --> 01:21:54,080
Speaker 4: Talking to themselves too much. We need to talk more.

1387
01:21:54,360 --> 01:21:55,840
Speaker 4: And then all of a sudden.

1388
01:21:56,000 --> 01:22:01,320
Speaker 1: Gntalized way aloud from the loud influencer laud by the way.

1389
01:22:01,120 --> 01:22:07,479
Speaker 4: If I troll Donald Trump on Twitter, and like, my

1390
01:22:07,600 --> 01:22:12,680
Speaker 4: point is is like don't. Gavin Newsom is a politician.

1391
01:22:12,800 --> 01:22:14,320
Speaker 4: I mean that in good ways and bad ways and

1392
01:22:14,400 --> 01:22:17,640
Speaker 4: the bad way. He didn't decide, you know what the

1393
01:22:17,720 --> 01:22:18,600
Speaker 4: world needs.

1394
01:22:18,360 --> 01:22:20,120
Speaker 3: They need me speaking out against Donald Trump.

1395
01:22:20,240 --> 01:22:23,400
Speaker 4: His first inclination was after the twenty twenty four election,

1396
01:22:23,960 --> 01:22:26,639
Speaker 4: we need to broaden the party out and I'm gonna

1397
01:22:26,640 --> 01:22:28,320
Speaker 4: talk to people who with whom I disagree.

1398
01:22:28,880 --> 01:22:32,040
Speaker 3: That didn't go over very well. And what started to

1399
01:22:32,120 --> 01:22:34,920
Speaker 3: go over well was I'm gonna just troll Trump. I'm

1400
01:22:34,920 --> 01:22:39,200
Speaker 3: gonna give Trump his own medicine. And that propelled him.

1401
01:22:39,439 --> 01:22:42,080
Speaker 3: But let's not pretend that that was like the first

1402
01:22:42,320 --> 01:22:44,080
Speaker 3: instinct that Kevin Newsom.

1403
01:22:43,840 --> 01:22:47,599
Speaker 4: Had when he saw what had happened in twenty twenty four.

1404
01:22:47,720 --> 01:22:51,439
Speaker 4: So I do think the danger for all of these

1405
01:22:51,520 --> 01:22:53,360
Speaker 4: people at a national level, I know you know this

1406
01:22:53,479 --> 01:22:57,120
Speaker 4: better than me, is it is hard not to tell

1407
01:22:57,240 --> 01:22:58,280
Speaker 4: people what they want to hear.

1408
01:22:58,360 --> 01:23:01,280
Speaker 3: You are probably a people please, It's why you do

1409
01:23:01,600 --> 01:23:05,320
Speaker 3: this job, right, right, That's why you got really really hard.

1410
01:23:05,520 --> 01:23:07,320
Speaker 4: But the truth is, when you have this level of

1411
01:23:07,360 --> 01:23:10,120
Speaker 4: scrutiny when you're running for president, which he is, you

1412
01:23:10,240 --> 01:23:11,479
Speaker 4: got to be real careful.

1413
01:23:12,400 --> 01:23:15,320
Speaker 1: You know. Look, and we talk about the A word authenticity,

1414
01:23:15,560 --> 01:23:18,599
Speaker 1: and you know it's sometimes overused and it's over over

1415
01:23:18,880 --> 01:23:23,600
Speaker 1: you know, can be sort of over analyzed. But I

1416
01:23:23,920 --> 01:23:25,759
Speaker 1: look at it, you know, it's sort of like Gavin Newsom.

1417
01:23:25,800 --> 01:23:27,360
Speaker 1: You know, it's like you have a your your, you

1418
01:23:27,439 --> 01:23:29,760
Speaker 1: have your you have a stick shift, and you're trying

1419
01:23:29,800 --> 01:23:31,360
Speaker 1: to let me try first gear, let me try say,

1420
01:23:31,439 --> 01:23:32,840
Speaker 1: let me, let me try all these different let's see

1421
01:23:32,840 --> 01:23:35,400
Speaker 1: what where I can get traction right. And it literally

1422
01:23:35,520 --> 01:23:39,599
Speaker 1: was him searching for traction versus be who you are

1423
01:23:39,840 --> 01:23:42,439
Speaker 1: and see if the moment meets you, that's it, right,

1424
01:23:42,600 --> 01:23:44,600
Speaker 1: Like there's always two you know, it's like are you

1425
01:23:45,400 --> 01:23:47,840
Speaker 1: you know, are you create. Are you trying to fit

1426
01:23:47,960 --> 01:23:50,760
Speaker 1: the moment or are you already there and the moment

1427
01:23:50,880 --> 01:23:53,519
Speaker 1: comes to you? Right? You know, like Donald Trump, it

1428
01:23:53,640 --> 01:23:56,840
Speaker 1: turns out he didn't. Everybody's like, oh he figured.

1429
01:23:56,960 --> 01:23:57,000
Speaker 3: No.

1430
01:23:57,400 --> 01:24:02,160
Speaker 1: Donald Trump has been the same erratic crank about all

1431
01:24:02,240 --> 01:24:05,959
Speaker 1: of American governance for the last thirty five forty years.

1432
01:24:05,760 --> 01:24:08,240
Speaker 4: And he's had a victim complex his entire adult life.

1433
01:24:08,280 --> 01:24:11,840
Speaker 4: It's just it worked in that moment. It bit the

1434
01:24:12,000 --> 01:24:15,320
Speaker 4: moment the Republican Party came to him. In many ways, right,

1435
01:24:16,040 --> 01:24:17,800
Speaker 4: is his anger hit.

1436
01:24:18,080 --> 01:24:23,920
Speaker 1: He was already a short attention span guy, a a

1437
01:24:24,240 --> 01:24:30,120
Speaker 1: squirrel brain, meaning social media, which basically rewards squirrel brain. Right,

1438
01:24:30,360 --> 01:24:35,880
Speaker 1: Oh totally, that's you know, so it is in some

1439
01:24:36,040 --> 01:24:39,080
Speaker 1: ways and in you know, why is why is Trump

1440
01:24:39,160 --> 01:24:41,000
Speaker 1: then defended? Well, he is who he is, and he's

1441
01:24:41,000 --> 01:24:42,960
Speaker 1: always been this person, and there's a lot of truth

1442
01:24:43,000 --> 01:24:45,680
Speaker 1: to that. Right, he may be consistently erratic on a

1443
01:24:45,760 --> 01:24:49,240
Speaker 1: day to day way, but in some ways he's he's

1444
01:24:49,520 --> 01:24:57,040
Speaker 1: he's consistently inconsistent, he's authentically Inauthentic's there's a there's always

1445
01:24:57,080 --> 01:24:58,920
Speaker 1: been an odd through line to him.

1446
01:24:59,439 --> 01:25:03,360
Speaker 4: Absolutely, you and I I think agree. I'm not an

1447
01:25:03,400 --> 01:25:05,920
Speaker 4: economist I'm not gonna although most economists say tarifs are

1448
01:25:05,960 --> 01:25:09,479
Speaker 4: bad policy, but they're they're terrible politics. I mean, we

1449
01:25:09,600 --> 01:25:12,600
Speaker 4: feel I feel very comfortable saying that. But like you

1450
01:25:12,720 --> 01:25:15,000
Speaker 4: can go back to interviews in the nineteen eighties where

1451
01:25:15,080 --> 01:25:18,200
Speaker 4: like a young businessman, Donald Trump is talking about how

1452
01:25:18,720 --> 01:25:20,559
Speaker 4: you know, I think at that point he was talking

1453
01:25:20,600 --> 01:25:22,880
Speaker 4: about Japan, but Japan is screwing us.

1454
01:25:24,240 --> 01:25:28,160
Speaker 3: So like there are, he is authentic. It's the same

1455
01:25:28,240 --> 01:25:30,080
Speaker 3: reason why I always say, these people, it's a great

1456
01:25:30,080 --> 01:25:31,040
Speaker 3: tribute question who.

1457
01:25:31,120 --> 01:25:33,760
Speaker 4: Who is in most polling, the most popular politician in

1458
01:25:33,840 --> 01:25:38,759
Speaker 4: the country, active politician in office is Bernie Sanders because

1459
01:25:38,800 --> 01:25:41,600
Speaker 4: people agree with him. If you go you can go

1460
01:25:41,720 --> 01:25:44,040
Speaker 4: back when he was the mayor of Burlington and you're like,

1461
01:25:44,120 --> 01:25:45,599
Speaker 4: oh shit, he's saying the same stuffy saying.

1462
01:25:45,640 --> 01:25:48,840
Speaker 1: Now, Actually, our friends at c SPAN, our buddy Howard Mormon,

1463
01:25:48,920 --> 01:25:52,519
Speaker 1: could put I think put together this this montage of

1464
01:25:52,640 --> 01:25:55,120
Speaker 1: clips of Bernie when he was a House member, I mean,

1465
01:25:55,240 --> 01:25:57,400
Speaker 1: for the when he was sort of the the gadfly

1466
01:25:57,600 --> 01:26:01,280
Speaker 1: socialist of the House, and and you know, before he

1467
01:26:01,400 --> 01:26:03,799
Speaker 1: was a senator and people actually took him more seriously,

1468
01:26:04,479 --> 01:26:06,280
Speaker 1: he was saying the same thing I don't think he

1469
01:26:06,320 --> 01:26:10,160
Speaker 1: said billionaires came to him. We didn't have that the party.

1470
01:26:10,320 --> 01:26:15,160
Speaker 1: And he seen his quote unquote authentic because he he's

1471
01:26:15,200 --> 01:26:18,080
Speaker 1: not met the moment. The moment came to him, right, And.

1472
01:26:18,200 --> 01:26:20,360
Speaker 3: Who reminds me of that too? On a smaller level,

1473
01:26:20,439 --> 01:26:21,360
Speaker 3: Not to go too down far.

1474
01:26:21,360 --> 01:26:25,160
Speaker 4: A rabbit hole, but remember when nau Ron Paul ran

1475
01:26:25,240 --> 01:26:27,120
Speaker 4: for president a number of times, but the time that

1476
01:26:27,200 --> 01:26:29,479
Speaker 4: he ran where he was like marginally credible, it was

1477
01:26:29,560 --> 01:26:34,920
Speaker 4: because Ron Paul's views never changed. It's just that the

1478
01:26:35,800 --> 01:26:39,599
Speaker 4: there became a bigger streak of people interested in like, yeah,

1479
01:26:39,600 --> 01:26:42,000
Speaker 4: maybe the fat is bad. They were libertarianism is the

1480
01:26:42,080 --> 01:26:44,799
Speaker 4: right way to go. Like, it's not like Ron Paul changed.

1481
01:26:45,439 --> 01:26:48,519
Speaker 1: Ron Paul twenty oh two was a weirdo. And in fact,

1482
01:26:48,640 --> 01:26:51,439
Speaker 1: Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders were literally Statler and Waldorf

1483
01:26:51,479 --> 01:26:52,639
Speaker 1: for the House totally.

1484
01:26:52,640 --> 01:26:55,720
Speaker 4: They were regularly James traffickan't land where you're like eeah,

1485
01:26:55,800 --> 01:26:57,680
Speaker 4: that guy gets up and says some stuff.

1486
01:26:57,439 --> 01:26:59,600
Speaker 1: And like they were. And the irony is that they

1487
01:26:59,640 --> 01:27:02,280
Speaker 1: regular voted the same on some foreign policy stuff, right,

1488
01:27:02,320 --> 01:27:05,280
Speaker 1: they were very much Paul was an old fashioned isolationist.

1489
01:27:06,000 --> 01:27:09,880
Speaker 1: Paul looked like a total extremist during the Bush era

1490
01:27:10,600 --> 01:27:13,160
Speaker 1: and then by it was twenty twelve, right, he ran

1491
01:27:13,200 --> 01:27:15,519
Speaker 1: in Oway, but it was twenty twelve where he started.

1492
01:27:15,720 --> 01:27:18,439
Speaker 1: You saw it, Yeah, and in fact he technically finished

1493
01:27:18,439 --> 01:27:19,280
Speaker 1: second to Romney.

1494
01:27:19,840 --> 01:27:22,120
Speaker 3: I mean, if you went to any event, and I

1495
01:27:22,240 --> 01:27:23,200
Speaker 3: remember he won all.

1496
01:27:23,560 --> 01:27:25,360
Speaker 1: He won a lot of delegate conventions.

1497
01:27:25,439 --> 01:27:27,360
Speaker 4: If you were at any cattle call, any kind of

1498
01:27:27,439 --> 01:27:30,400
Speaker 4: thing there was like you would be like, well, now

1499
01:27:30,520 --> 01:27:32,400
Speaker 4: it wound up being there were a lot of deeply

1500
01:27:32,439 --> 01:27:34,120
Speaker 4: committed people, but not enough of them.

1501
01:27:34,160 --> 01:27:38,880
Speaker 3: But the point is Ron Paul went from lone to

1502
01:27:40,360 --> 01:27:41,320
Speaker 3: n He's.

1503
01:27:41,240 --> 01:27:44,760
Speaker 1: The godfather of the anti interventionist wing of the the

1504
01:27:44,800 --> 01:27:45,559
Speaker 1: Trump coalition.

1505
01:27:45,840 --> 01:27:46,040
Speaker 3: Yep.

1506
01:27:46,720 --> 01:27:50,559
Speaker 1: And you know, by the way, I you know I did.

1507
01:27:50,680 --> 01:27:53,000
Speaker 1: I saw that you promoted my quote unquote hot take

1508
01:27:53,200 --> 01:27:57,640
Speaker 1: right about Vans. That this is I think, And you know,

1509
01:27:57,960 --> 01:28:00,439
Speaker 1: as much as I'm always hesitant to be the U

1510
01:28:00,880 --> 01:28:02,880
Speaker 1: to be a hot taker on this one, I feel

1511
01:28:03,160 --> 01:28:03,559
Speaker 1: like I don't.

1512
01:28:03,760 --> 01:28:05,800
Speaker 4: There's no way to believe it. My view is it's

1513
01:28:05,840 --> 01:28:09,080
Speaker 4: not a you're not saying you want to get. You're

1514
01:28:09,120 --> 01:28:10,280
Speaker 4: saying it because you believe.

1515
01:28:10,040 --> 01:28:12,040
Speaker 1: It, right. I'm like, I don't see you.

1516
01:28:12,920 --> 01:28:15,280
Speaker 3: We don't have an I'm good at right ideas.

1517
01:28:15,000 --> 01:28:17,479
Speaker 1: But I don't see how this as recoverable for him

1518
01:28:17,560 --> 01:28:19,960
Speaker 1: long term. That doesn't mean he won't be the Republican nominee,

1519
01:28:20,000 --> 01:28:22,880
Speaker 1: because he will be president.

1520
01:28:23,479 --> 01:28:27,080
Speaker 3: Willfully misunderstood the quote bash for that.

1521
01:28:27,800 --> 01:28:29,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, it's not that we're saying.

1522
01:28:29,760 --> 01:28:31,599
Speaker 3: You're saying, I just a general.

1523
01:28:32,479 --> 01:28:35,880
Speaker 1: Well, he just lost the most interesting part of his

1524
01:28:35,960 --> 01:28:40,519
Speaker 1: political identity. And and once you lose something that was

1525
01:28:40,720 --> 01:28:43,240
Speaker 1: uniquely yours, and when you're vice president, you lose a

1526
01:28:43,240 --> 01:28:47,759
Speaker 1: lot of your own political identity, and you lose something

1527
01:28:47,800 --> 01:28:50,240
Speaker 1: that was uniquely yours. Right that that sort of gave

1528
01:28:50,320 --> 01:28:52,599
Speaker 1: him right his entrance into this. Right, he's the Iraq

1529
01:28:52,640 --> 01:28:54,840
Speaker 1: War veteran that was like, wait a minute, we can't

1530
01:28:54,920 --> 01:28:57,280
Speaker 1: keep doing this. We're sending the same people. They all

1531
01:28:57,360 --> 01:28:59,920
Speaker 1: are people that lived in the areas of rural Ohio

1532
01:29:00,040 --> 01:29:02,080
Speaker 1: that I grew up in. Right, That's who we're sending

1533
01:29:02,120 --> 01:29:04,759
Speaker 1: on these wars. We're not sending the sons and daughters

1534
01:29:04,800 --> 01:29:06,800
Speaker 1: of Donald J. Trump, you know, and the rich people.

1535
01:29:07,400 --> 01:29:11,600
Speaker 1: And he's now lost that identity. It doesn't mean it

1536
01:29:11,800 --> 01:29:13,800
Speaker 1: ends his career. It just means I don't think he's

1537
01:29:13,800 --> 01:29:15,400
Speaker 1: ever going to get elected president. Of the United States

1538
01:29:15,439 --> 01:29:17,160
Speaker 1: now because it's sort.

1539
01:29:16,960 --> 01:29:18,280
Speaker 3: Of a core part.

1540
01:29:18,400 --> 01:29:20,640
Speaker 1: When you lose a core part of your identity, I

1541
01:29:20,680 --> 01:29:21,439
Speaker 1: don't know how you recover.

1542
01:29:21,479 --> 01:29:22,280
Speaker 3: It's hard to get it back.

1543
01:29:22,560 --> 01:29:24,639
Speaker 1: It's hard to get it's almost it's impossible to get.

1544
01:29:24,680 --> 01:29:28,679
Speaker 4: And look, yes, being very tightly affiliated with Donald Trump

1545
01:29:28,760 --> 01:29:32,080
Speaker 4: in a Republican primary in twenty twenty eight is probably

1546
01:29:32,160 --> 01:29:35,080
Speaker 4: I still think net net a very good thing being

1547
01:29:35,120 --> 01:29:39,120
Speaker 4: associated with Donald Trump in that legacy, unless that legacy changes, right.

1548
01:29:39,120 --> 01:29:40,760
Speaker 3: I mean, we're talking about a president who's in the.

1549
01:29:41,760 --> 01:29:46,559
Speaker 4: Upper thirties low forties in approval general electorate. The gap

1550
01:29:46,680 --> 01:29:49,960
Speaker 4: between what Republicans like and what independence and Democrats like

1551
01:29:50,160 --> 01:29:53,200
Speaker 4: is getting an independence are very much moving over to

1552
01:29:53,600 --> 01:29:54,880
Speaker 4: Democratic views right now.

1553
01:29:55,240 --> 01:29:58,599
Speaker 1: Well, what's interesting, and you know it's funny yesterday, yesterday

1554
01:29:58,720 --> 01:30:01,680
Speaker 1: or earlier this week, was you know, I've been so

1555
01:30:01,840 --> 01:30:04,920
Speaker 1: consumed by the primaries that I sort of didn't I

1556
01:30:05,040 --> 01:30:08,960
Speaker 1: wasn't hour to hour paying attention to the Iran or

1557
01:30:09,240 --> 01:30:12,240
Speaker 1: spinning that was taking place by the administration. And then

1558
01:30:12,280 --> 01:30:14,200
Speaker 1: you sort of step back the next day and absorb,

1559
01:30:14,880 --> 01:30:17,920
Speaker 1: you know, first of all, what an utter mess, and

1560
01:30:18,000 --> 01:30:21,040
Speaker 1: when you actually put together what happened in Texas on

1561
01:30:21,200 --> 01:30:27,160
Speaker 1: Tuesday Night, with the absolute erratic nature of trying to

1562
01:30:28,520 --> 01:30:33,040
Speaker 1: essentially create a rationale for why you did this, and

1563
01:30:33,280 --> 01:30:37,840
Speaker 1: your rationale keeps changing. This has been a disaster week

1564
01:30:37,920 --> 01:30:39,880
Speaker 1: for the Republicans that are on the ballot in twenty

1565
01:30:39,960 --> 01:30:43,120
Speaker 1: twenty six. It is and again, very difficult to defend

1566
01:30:43,200 --> 01:30:44,160
Speaker 1: what's going on right now.

1567
01:30:44,720 --> 01:30:50,160
Speaker 4: It's the problem is it's like, I don't think Iran

1568
01:30:50,360 --> 01:30:56,840
Speaker 4: decides this election, but every day Donald Trump is talking

1569
01:30:56,880 --> 01:30:59,760
Speaker 4: about Iran or Ecuador or Ukraine in Russia is a

1570
01:30:59,840 --> 01:31:03,240
Speaker 4: day he is not. Remember the affordability tour that he

1571
01:31:03,400 --> 01:31:05,639
Speaker 4: was going to go on that Susie Wilds touted. I'm

1572
01:31:05,680 --> 01:31:09,120
Speaker 4: telling you it's the infrastructure week. I mean the infrastructure

1573
01:31:09,160 --> 01:31:11,719
Speaker 4: week of the second term. It's like, man, it's it's March,

1574
01:31:12,720 --> 01:31:14,960
Speaker 4: you know, Like it's like that's two months that have

1575
01:31:15,000 --> 01:31:16,559
Speaker 4: been totally pissed away.

1576
01:31:17,280 --> 01:31:19,280
Speaker 3: Not only people start making.

1577
01:31:19,040 --> 01:31:21,800
Speaker 4: Their people's minds start getting They don't make their mind

1578
01:31:21,880 --> 01:31:25,640
Speaker 4: up on the day before the election, right the parameters

1579
01:31:25,720 --> 01:31:27,839
Speaker 4: get said months before.

1580
01:31:36,520 --> 01:31:38,680
Speaker 1: You know, We've seen all these studies that indicate this

1581
01:31:39,320 --> 01:31:44,000
Speaker 1: what the perception of what the public believes the economy

1582
01:31:44,120 --> 01:31:48,160
Speaker 1: is like. In June Memorial day is how they'll vote

1583
01:31:48,160 --> 01:31:51,760
Speaker 1: at the ballot box, right even if struct well, it's

1584
01:31:51,800 --> 01:31:55,280
Speaker 1: not that far. And b his what he's done right

1585
01:31:55,360 --> 01:31:59,560
Speaker 1: now is actually screwed up the economy. Stock market's you know,

1586
01:31:59,720 --> 01:32:02,920
Speaker 1: been tanking. You know, I go back, Pam BONDI a

1587
01:32:02,960 --> 01:32:05,200
Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago. Why aren't we talking about Dow

1588
01:32:05,320 --> 01:32:08,840
Speaker 1: fifty thousand? Hey, guess what thatw hasn't been in fifty

1589
01:32:08,880 --> 01:32:11,960
Speaker 1: thousand since you opened your mouth, miss Attorney General. It's

1590
01:32:12,000 --> 01:32:15,000
Speaker 1: been sitting under and it's now below forty nine. So

1591
01:32:15,800 --> 01:32:17,960
Speaker 1: do you want to talk about that? I mean, you know,

1592
01:32:18,120 --> 01:32:18,880
Speaker 1: or do you want to talk.

1593
01:32:18,720 --> 01:32:22,600
Speaker 4: You about the upstate is previously your latching your the

1594
01:32:22,760 --> 01:32:25,800
Speaker 4: economy is good. Argument that Donald Trump has done to

1595
01:32:26,080 --> 01:32:29,439
Speaker 4: the stock market is literally political malpractice. I mean, it's

1596
01:32:29,479 --> 01:32:33,040
Speaker 4: just so dumb because you can't control it well.

1597
01:32:33,520 --> 01:32:35,720
Speaker 1: And this sort of pivots and it's sort of like,

1598
01:32:36,040 --> 01:32:38,400
Speaker 1: you know, I want to I want to read you

1599
01:32:38,479 --> 01:32:41,200
Speaker 1: this anonymous quote that was in Playbook, because this is

1600
01:32:41,320 --> 01:32:45,720
Speaker 1: the what actual elected Republicans are hearing from their advisors.

1601
01:32:47,160 --> 01:32:49,560
Speaker 1: And this is characterized as a person close to the

1602
01:32:49,640 --> 01:32:52,880
Speaker 1: White House telling Politico, I have no problem blowing up

1603
01:32:52,880 --> 01:32:55,639
Speaker 1: the Iranians. But when you're at war, that is seventy

1604
01:32:55,680 --> 01:32:57,840
Speaker 1: five percent of your time. This is what Susie Wallace

1605
01:32:57,920 --> 01:32:59,599
Speaker 1: is going to be doing. This is what James Blair

1606
01:32:59,680 --> 01:33:02,000
Speaker 1: they why does political director We'll be doing. This is

1607
01:33:02,040 --> 01:33:04,120
Speaker 1: what senior staff will be dealing with. And that is

1608
01:33:04,160 --> 01:33:06,599
Speaker 1: a problem, he goes. It needs to get over quick

1609
01:33:06,720 --> 01:33:09,600
Speaker 1: otherwise this is an efing nightmare. It already is a

1610
01:33:09,680 --> 01:33:12,160
Speaker 1: nightmare because you've got the Mega Coalition just tearing at

1611
01:33:12,160 --> 01:33:14,960
Speaker 1: the seams. Anything in a game of subtraction right now

1612
01:33:15,080 --> 01:33:17,559
Speaker 1: is effing disastrous. Anything that we do that hurts our

1613
01:33:17,560 --> 01:33:19,920
Speaker 1: own base is catastrophic. They need to explain to the

1614
01:33:19,960 --> 01:33:22,439
Speaker 1: American people, and they need, frankly, to do it pretty quickly,

1615
01:33:22,479 --> 01:33:25,799
Speaker 1: and specifically to the Republican base. Yeah, and it's already

1616
01:33:26,720 --> 01:33:29,640
Speaker 1: they're all over the place. Was it the Saudis that

1617
01:33:29,720 --> 01:33:32,559
Speaker 1: talked it's into it? Was it the Israel?

1618
01:33:32,760 --> 01:33:35,080
Speaker 4: Did MBS convince Donald Trump do it? Did we do

1619
01:33:35,160 --> 01:33:37,160
Speaker 4: that as Israel was going in any way?

1620
01:33:38,040 --> 01:33:40,760
Speaker 1: Or and then this idea that we didn't have a

1621
01:33:40,800 --> 01:33:44,160
Speaker 1: plan to evacuate Americans from the region because it was

1622
01:33:44,240 --> 01:33:47,400
Speaker 1: too quick. Well, there's also reporting that indicates that they

1623
01:33:47,520 --> 01:33:49,840
Speaker 1: delayed this a week because of weather.

1624
01:33:50,240 --> 01:33:51,240
Speaker 3: They were actually going to do this.

1625
01:33:53,479 --> 01:33:55,800
Speaker 1: The weekend before the State of the Year, before State

1626
01:33:55,840 --> 01:33:59,519
Speaker 1: of the Union, and it literally weather was the only

1627
01:33:59,640 --> 01:34:04,720
Speaker 1: reason they decided to tap the brakes. So meaning you

1628
01:34:04,800 --> 01:34:07,720
Speaker 1: were preparing, you were preparing long enough to send two

1629
01:34:07,880 --> 01:34:10,760
Speaker 1: big time aircraft carriers to the region. You didn't think

1630
01:34:10,840 --> 01:34:14,000
Speaker 1: about a plan to evacuate Americans out of the Middle East.

1631
01:34:14,400 --> 01:34:17,960
Speaker 1: And now you're basically like, tough luck. You got John Rohm,

1632
01:34:18,400 --> 01:34:20,960
Speaker 1: a golfer, having to send his own plane to do

1633
01:34:21,080 --> 01:34:23,680
Speaker 1: by mean, look, he's nobody's crying for him. They got

1634
01:34:23,880 --> 01:34:26,560
Speaker 1: money to do private plane stuff. God bless him. But

1635
01:34:27,960 --> 01:34:30,479
Speaker 1: the United States government isn't going to look out for

1636
01:34:30,600 --> 01:34:34,760
Speaker 1: its own US citizens in the region. And the dismissiveness

1637
01:34:34,840 --> 01:34:39,760
Speaker 1: of Trump on this is you know, uh, these are

1638
01:34:39,960 --> 01:34:42,200
Speaker 1: these are his own, these are his own voters.

1639
01:34:42,600 --> 01:34:45,720
Speaker 3: And what what was the biggest foreign policy critique that

1640
01:34:45,920 --> 01:34:49,080
Speaker 3: Trump latched onto in the twenty twenty four campaign. Joe

1641
01:34:49,200 --> 01:34:52,519
Speaker 3: Biden mishandled the ending of Afghanistan. People were left there

1642
01:34:52,520 --> 01:34:54,599
Speaker 3: who shouldn't have been left, Like it's all I mean,

1643
01:34:54,680 --> 01:34:57,840
Speaker 3: it's it's it's almost two on the nose.

1644
01:34:58,200 --> 01:35:01,879
Speaker 1: If apocracy or a currency, Trump would even be wealthier

1645
01:35:01,920 --> 01:35:02,280
Speaker 1: than he is.

1646
01:35:02,680 --> 01:35:05,120
Speaker 4: Yes, I mean it's yeah, I mean, and that's nothing

1647
01:35:05,240 --> 01:35:09,040
Speaker 4: that we're not even getting into the Like Tulci Gabbert said,

1648
01:35:09,160 --> 01:35:10,479
Speaker 4: we can't go to war with Irock.

1649
01:35:10,800 --> 01:35:12,880
Speaker 3: JD. Van said there shouldn't be a war with with

1650
01:35:13,000 --> 01:35:14,120
Speaker 3: Iron rather. JD.

1651
01:35:14,280 --> 01:35:15,600
Speaker 4: Vance said the same, you know what I mean? Like, oh,

1652
01:35:15,840 --> 01:35:18,200
Speaker 4: Donald Trump said we got to end forever wars. It's

1653
01:35:18,240 --> 01:35:23,040
Speaker 4: like and and and even Chuck, is it.

1654
01:35:23,160 --> 01:35:26,800
Speaker 3: A war or not? They can't even agree within themselves

1655
01:35:26,840 --> 01:35:27,400
Speaker 3: on Mark.

1656
01:35:27,840 --> 01:35:31,720
Speaker 1: The Mark Wayne Mullen. I mean, it was you know

1657
01:35:31,800 --> 01:35:33,559
Speaker 1: what you needed, you know when they did that. There's

1658
01:35:33,640 --> 01:35:36,720
Speaker 1: this Mark Wade Mullin like back and forth. You just

1659
01:35:36,800 --> 01:35:39,280
Speaker 1: called it a war. Well it's you know, you know

1660
01:35:40,680 --> 01:35:42,360
Speaker 1: that used to be the way Veep would end. And

1661
01:35:42,439 --> 01:35:45,720
Speaker 1: you just sort of play the music, right, Cloe is

1662
01:35:45,760 --> 01:35:46,200
Speaker 1: closer to.

1663
01:35:46,240 --> 01:35:47,960
Speaker 3: A documentary than people realize.

1664
01:35:48,439 --> 01:35:51,599
Speaker 1: Just play the music out of that, Mark Wade Mullein,

1665
01:35:51,720 --> 01:35:54,560
Speaker 1: play the club music, you know, or what of the

1666
01:35:54,960 --> 01:35:56,800
Speaker 1: one of the two and you just walk away. You're like,

1667
01:35:56,920 --> 01:35:59,479
Speaker 1: are you kidding me? You know, it doesn't make any sense,

1668
01:36:00,160 --> 01:36:01,679
Speaker 1: just doesn't it just doesn't.

1669
01:36:01,720 --> 01:36:03,080
Speaker 3: I mean, there's no way to make it make sense.

1670
01:36:04,600 --> 01:36:13,280
Speaker 1: Well, now we've got a let's let's large large picture here. Yeah,

1671
01:36:14,800 --> 01:36:16,000
Speaker 1: how in play is the Senate?

1672
01:36:18,520 --> 01:36:22,280
Speaker 4: So I looked, I looked kind of mid week at

1673
01:36:22,439 --> 01:36:25,720
Speaker 4: the prediction markets, which we can debate forever, and I

1674
01:36:25,800 --> 01:36:27,640
Speaker 4: know we've talked about like how accurate is that?

1675
01:36:28,240 --> 01:36:30,720
Speaker 1: Well, the production markets look really accurate when it came

1676
01:36:30,840 --> 01:36:33,639
Speaker 1: to their confidence in tall Rico and look really stupid

1677
01:36:33,720 --> 01:36:35,679
Speaker 1: in their confidence and backstent exactly.

1678
01:36:35,840 --> 01:36:39,320
Speaker 3: So it's like, you know, right, there's no difference exactly,

1679
01:36:40,120 --> 01:36:43,840
Speaker 3: they're in the low forties for Democrats chances of taking

1680
01:36:43,880 --> 01:36:44,160
Speaker 3: the scent.

1681
01:36:44,280 --> 01:36:47,800
Speaker 1: That's that's a brightish to that's a six point hike.

1682
01:36:47,960 --> 01:36:49,559
Speaker 1: By the way, since the end of twenty five.

1683
01:36:49,640 --> 01:36:50,760
Speaker 3: Remember it's gone up.

1684
01:36:50,880 --> 01:36:53,840
Speaker 1: It was one in three Riley. And I remember at

1685
01:36:53,880 --> 01:36:58,479
Speaker 1: the time I had said at that price, uh, it's

1686
01:36:58,520 --> 01:37:01,080
Speaker 1: a goodbye because I think that that the perception of

1687
01:37:01,160 --> 01:37:04,439
Speaker 1: Democrats chances in the Senate. And that's the interesting you know,

1688
01:37:04,520 --> 01:37:07,360
Speaker 1: that to me is what i'll I will concede. What

1689
01:37:07,520 --> 01:37:10,599
Speaker 1: makes the prediction markets interesting to me is the ability

1690
01:37:10,640 --> 01:37:13,880
Speaker 1: to cash a ticket before the result happens. Where it

1691
01:37:14,040 --> 01:37:15,720
Speaker 1: is now get upside.

1692
01:37:15,479 --> 01:37:19,000
Speaker 4: How she on Calshi and this will this obviously can move.

1693
01:37:19,080 --> 01:37:23,320
Speaker 4: But it's fifty five percent chance Republicans control the Senate,

1694
01:37:23,520 --> 01:37:27,800
Speaker 4: forty five percent chance de Senate. That's now, that's that

1695
01:37:28,479 --> 01:37:31,639
Speaker 4: might be a little artificial high off of tall Rico

1696
01:37:31,720 --> 01:37:34,719
Speaker 4: winning and there being a runoff on the Republican side.

1697
01:37:35,520 --> 01:37:35,840
Speaker 3: Market.

1698
01:37:36,000 --> 01:37:41,759
Speaker 4: These markets are very susceptible the random news occurrence.

1699
01:37:41,840 --> 01:37:46,400
Speaker 1: Right, But what but it tells you where, it tells you.

1700
01:37:46,800 --> 01:37:49,360
Speaker 3: It tells you where people's minds are, and they're starting to.

1701
01:37:49,360 --> 01:37:51,320
Speaker 1: Pay more attention to Alaska and Iowa.

1702
01:37:51,400 --> 01:37:53,479
Speaker 4: All if you have to win, if you have to

1703
01:37:53,640 --> 01:37:56,320
Speaker 4: net at a minimum three, if Murkowski maybe in the

1704
01:37:56,400 --> 01:37:58,680
Speaker 4: Chuck tout theory, switches parties. But let's just let's put

1705
01:37:58,680 --> 01:38:01,040
Speaker 4: that out of mind, and let's say it's if you

1706
01:38:01,160 --> 01:38:04,120
Speaker 4: have to net for what you cannot do. We've learned

1707
01:38:04,160 --> 01:38:07,879
Speaker 4: this election after election you cannot only have four Republican

1708
01:38:07,960 --> 01:38:10,040
Speaker 4: seats where you have any chance. It's just you have

1709
01:38:10,120 --> 01:38:12,920
Speaker 4: no margin, right, And I think what they've done is,

1710
01:38:12,960 --> 01:38:14,559
Speaker 4: I think you have to feel really good if you're

1711
01:38:14,560 --> 01:38:15,920
Speaker 4: a Democrat about Roy.

1712
01:38:15,800 --> 01:38:16,919
Speaker 3: Cooper in North Carolina.

1713
01:38:17,840 --> 01:38:20,080
Speaker 4: Let's see about the primary in Maine. But it's you know,

1714
01:38:20,160 --> 01:38:22,000
Speaker 4: it's a state. Kamala Harrison one, it's going to be

1715
01:38:22,040 --> 01:38:24,160
Speaker 4: a Democratic year. I never count Susan Colin top, but

1716
01:38:24,200 --> 01:38:26,160
Speaker 4: you got to feel good there, you know. And then

1717
01:38:26,240 --> 01:38:33,360
Speaker 4: it gets down to the kind of like, Okay, Alaska, Iowa, Texas.

1718
01:38:34,040 --> 01:38:35,680
Speaker 1: No, what about Nebraska.

1719
01:38:35,840 --> 01:38:39,280
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, yeah, it's a tie tide race

1720
01:38:39,400 --> 01:38:39,760
Speaker 3: right now.

1721
01:38:42,120 --> 01:38:44,120
Speaker 4: The point is is the fact that we can throw

1722
01:38:44,200 --> 01:38:48,719
Speaker 4: those out there suggests to me that they have enough

1723
01:38:49,880 --> 01:38:52,880
Speaker 4: pieces on the playing field where it doesn't have to

1724
01:38:52,960 --> 01:38:56,240
Speaker 4: be either we pull a royal flush or nothing.

1725
01:38:56,720 --> 01:38:59,280
Speaker 3: Right, so like there are different paths to get there.

1726
01:39:00,160 --> 01:39:03,000
Speaker 1: So I made the case of my podcast on Wednesday

1727
01:39:03,040 --> 01:39:06,759
Speaker 1: that this is actually not that expensive of a cycle.

1728
01:39:06,840 --> 01:39:08,840
Speaker 1: When you look at the seats that the Democrats have

1729
01:39:08,920 --> 01:39:12,880
Speaker 1: to defend. You're looking at Georgia and Michigan, and I

1730
01:39:12,960 --> 01:39:15,680
Speaker 1: would argue Minnesota, in New Hampshire lightly, mysoft.

1731
01:39:15,360 --> 01:39:17,400
Speaker 3: Will raise so much on his own right, you probably

1732
01:39:17,400 --> 01:39:18,560
Speaker 3: aren't going to have to handle that.

1733
01:39:18,640 --> 01:39:20,480
Speaker 1: You know, they don't have a New York or California

1734
01:39:20,600 --> 01:39:23,000
Speaker 1: that they're spending, or Pennsylvania or in Illinois even or

1735
01:39:23,040 --> 01:39:25,640
Speaker 1: even Illinois, right, Republicans aren't putting that in play, So

1736
01:39:25,760 --> 01:39:29,600
Speaker 1: they don't have expensive races in the biggest States. So

1737
01:39:29,720 --> 01:39:33,360
Speaker 1: the question is how and this gets it to do

1738
01:39:33,560 --> 01:39:38,920
Speaker 1: you if you're Chuck Schumer, you're JB. Persh, do you

1739
01:39:39,000 --> 01:39:40,439
Speaker 1: play in Texas in the run now?

1740
01:39:40,920 --> 01:39:44,200
Speaker 3: How much do you believe in Texas? That's it it really?

1741
01:39:44,360 --> 01:39:46,719
Speaker 1: Do you work hard to help Paxton win that runoff?

1742
01:39:46,800 --> 01:39:48,479
Speaker 1: Do you? And how do you do it? Do you

1743
01:39:48,600 --> 01:39:52,599
Speaker 1: do the positive ad that thanks John Cornyn for being

1744
01:39:52,920 --> 01:39:56,080
Speaker 1: a gun control advocate? You know, do you do that

1745
01:39:56,320 --> 01:39:58,439
Speaker 1: kind of starkiness or do you do it the other

1746
01:39:58,479 --> 01:40:04,040
Speaker 1: way of Ken is too close to conservative.

1747
01:40:03,479 --> 01:40:05,760
Speaker 3: For Texans sponsored by the Democratic Party.

1748
01:40:06,120 --> 01:40:08,160
Speaker 1: He's two right or he's two pro Trump?

1749
01:40:08,360 --> 01:40:10,200
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, Trump totally.

1750
01:40:12,360 --> 01:40:14,680
Speaker 1: I think if they're serious about winning the Senate, we

1751
01:40:14,840 --> 01:40:18,280
Speaker 1: see stuff like that and you so you could probably

1752
01:40:18,280 --> 01:40:20,000
Speaker 1: and I don't, and I wonder if they'll do it.

1753
01:40:20,120 --> 01:40:20,799
Speaker 1: I'll be curious.

1754
01:40:21,200 --> 01:40:23,000
Speaker 3: That's also a cheaper day.

1755
01:40:23,400 --> 01:40:27,880
Speaker 4: I think if you meddle in that runoff, then if

1756
01:40:28,320 --> 01:40:32,280
Speaker 4: like you feel like you've got to go in for

1757
01:40:32,400 --> 01:40:35,719
Speaker 4: twenty five million to make any impact in a general

1758
01:40:35,880 --> 01:40:37,120
Speaker 4: right like you could probably for.

1759
01:40:38,320 --> 01:40:41,920
Speaker 3: Ten million ish make a make a dent potentially in

1760
01:40:42,000 --> 01:40:45,479
Speaker 3: the runoff pro Paxton. It's a little bit dangerous, but

1761
01:40:45,560 --> 01:40:46,120
Speaker 3: at the same time.

1762
01:40:46,200 --> 01:40:48,000
Speaker 4: I think the only people who are like I can't

1763
01:40:48,040 --> 01:40:50,320
Speaker 4: believe filling the blank party is meddling with other fill

1764
01:40:50,360 --> 01:40:53,559
Speaker 4: in the blank party are like media types. I don't

1765
01:40:53,560 --> 01:40:56,479
Speaker 4: think the average person gives a crap no, Like I

1766
01:40:56,600 --> 01:40:58,639
Speaker 4: just don't think they care. It's like people who bang

1767
01:40:58,680 --> 01:41:01,920
Speaker 4: the drum on campaign finance from yes, big money is

1768
01:41:02,160 --> 01:41:05,960
Speaker 4: less is more powerful now and less transparent than ever before.

1769
01:41:06,080 --> 01:41:08,560
Speaker 3: You know how many voters care about it? Almost no?

1770
01:41:08,760 --> 01:41:11,960
Speaker 1: No, And look it should be it should be that

1771
01:41:12,040 --> 01:41:14,479
Speaker 1: bothers voters. But you know, good luck we well we

1772
01:41:14,560 --> 01:41:14,880
Speaker 1: were just.

1773
01:41:14,920 --> 01:41:17,080
Speaker 4: We mentioned in passing. We can talk more about it.

1774
01:41:17,160 --> 01:41:20,439
Speaker 4: But the Illinois race it's just gross as gross.

1775
01:41:21,080 --> 01:41:23,240
Speaker 3: But like again, these people people don't see it.

1776
01:41:23,280 --> 01:41:25,880
Speaker 4: It gets disclosed late in all these super packs and stuff.

1777
01:41:25,880 --> 01:41:29,880
Speaker 4: It's like, you know, the Committee to Protect Goodness and Light. Well,

1778
01:41:29,880 --> 01:41:31,680
Speaker 4: that seems like a good group, but what's wrong, Like

1779
01:41:31,760 --> 01:41:33,400
Speaker 4: it's you know, people don't see it and they don't

1780
01:41:33,439 --> 01:41:35,680
Speaker 4: engage at the level we're at the point is is

1781
01:41:35,760 --> 01:41:39,160
Speaker 4: like I think you the minor hit you might take

1782
01:41:39,240 --> 01:41:43,439
Speaker 4: for meddling, it probably is well worth the potential upside

1783
01:41:43,439 --> 01:41:45,440
Speaker 4: because if Cornin is the nominee.

1784
01:41:45,080 --> 01:41:49,640
Speaker 1: Tallery by the way meddling works, okay, and do we

1785
01:41:49,720 --> 01:41:50,360
Speaker 1: have any doubt?

1786
01:41:50,479 --> 01:41:54,920
Speaker 3: Like I think Tallarico loses to Corny in fifty four forty.

1787
01:41:54,720 --> 01:41:58,240
Speaker 1: Six, I would I would probably say it's more like

1788
01:41:58,360 --> 01:42:00,600
Speaker 1: Cruiz Meto, but I agree, I think it's two to

1789
01:42:00,680 --> 01:42:02,320
Speaker 1: three points like okay, but but.

1790
01:42:02,520 --> 01:42:06,680
Speaker 4: It's very hard to see beating Corny even in a

1791
01:42:06,920 --> 01:42:08,840
Speaker 4: really good Democratic I.

1792
01:42:08,880 --> 01:42:11,840
Speaker 1: Think Cornin gets forty seven corn It. I think tall

1793
01:42:11,920 --> 01:42:13,840
Speaker 1: Rico gets forty seven. I think it Florida's going to

1794
01:42:13,880 --> 01:42:16,160
Speaker 1: be forty seven forty eight. I think it's Flora's badows Florida.

1795
01:42:16,200 --> 01:42:17,599
Speaker 3: Where is against Paxton?

1796
01:42:17,920 --> 01:42:21,000
Speaker 4: I think if you ran the race one hundred times,

1797
01:42:21,040 --> 01:42:23,519
Speaker 4: I think Paxson would win it more times than tall Rico.

1798
01:42:23,720 --> 01:42:26,040
Speaker 4: But it's not a lot more times than tall Rico,

1799
01:42:26,120 --> 01:42:28,080
Speaker 4: do you know what I mean? Like it's and so

1800
01:42:28,200 --> 01:42:30,920
Speaker 4: it's like do you do you place a bet there?

1801
01:42:32,080 --> 01:42:34,920
Speaker 4: And and like you said, Texas ain't cheap, So it's

1802
01:42:35,120 --> 01:42:39,280
Speaker 4: it's you know, how do you feel? I'm fascinated by

1803
01:42:39,320 --> 01:42:41,120
Speaker 4: the rankings of Like I think we would all agree

1804
01:42:41,200 --> 01:42:44,439
Speaker 4: North Carolina and Maine are clearly Democrats' best chances, right,

1805
01:42:44,880 --> 01:42:49,120
Speaker 4: But it's like stuff, Then how do we sort Alaska, Ohio, Texas,

1806
01:42:49,160 --> 01:42:49,719
Speaker 4: and Iowa.

1807
01:42:49,880 --> 01:42:51,400
Speaker 3: Like, how do you that?

1808
01:42:52,160 --> 01:42:53,880
Speaker 1: I think? I look, and we had a couple of

1809
01:42:53,920 --> 01:42:56,880
Speaker 1: guests make this case last night. I I think I

1810
01:42:57,000 --> 01:42:59,439
Speaker 1: agree that Alaska is the next best place because you

1811
01:42:59,520 --> 01:43:02,639
Speaker 1: have somebody that actually won state wide. She's one state wide, right,

1812
01:43:03,160 --> 01:43:05,120
Speaker 1: And yes, I know Sharon Brown has and yes, the

1813
01:43:05,200 --> 01:43:07,519
Speaker 1: last time he won was in a midterm year. That

1814
01:43:07,760 --> 01:43:11,040
Speaker 1: is true. You know, I do think you know, I

1815
01:43:11,120 --> 01:43:14,519
Speaker 1: don't know if he fits the moment, right. I think

1816
01:43:14,600 --> 01:43:17,400
Speaker 1: that he's had a lot of electric offices there is

1817
01:43:17,640 --> 01:43:20,360
Speaker 1: he's he's got a high floor, low ceiling. I think

1818
01:43:20,400 --> 01:43:24,200
Speaker 1: we know this about sure. And it may be that

1819
01:43:24,320 --> 01:43:26,479
Speaker 1: you could spend fifty million dollars on that race and

1820
01:43:26,600 --> 01:43:28,880
Speaker 1: he'll get forty eight percent. And you can correct five

1821
01:43:28,920 --> 01:43:31,080
Speaker 1: million dollars in that race and he'll get forty eight percent.

1822
01:43:31,240 --> 01:43:33,479
Speaker 3: Now a half percent, right exactly.

1823
01:43:33,560 --> 01:43:35,960
Speaker 1: There's there's an argument to be made that money isn't

1824
01:43:36,040 --> 01:43:39,680
Speaker 1: going to be what decides as relative. It really is

1825
01:43:39,720 --> 01:43:43,519
Speaker 1: about Republican turnout, you know, And is there a depression

1826
01:43:44,040 --> 01:43:47,000
Speaker 1: a little bit? And do independence come in in greater number?

1827
01:43:47,120 --> 01:43:50,280
Speaker 1: Do you get a supercharge of Democratic voters to show up?

1828
01:43:50,400 --> 01:43:54,559
Speaker 1: And independence break sixty forty rather than say, fifty three

1829
01:43:54,760 --> 01:43:55,320
Speaker 1: forty seven.

1830
01:43:55,560 --> 01:43:58,120
Speaker 3: Told me, you know, and I don't know if the

1831
01:43:58,240 --> 01:44:01,720
Speaker 3: intrigued by Iowa. If Josh Turik is the.

1832
01:44:01,760 --> 01:44:04,919
Speaker 1: Nominee, we had somebody's I think his story is interesting

1833
01:44:05,360 --> 01:44:07,920
Speaker 1: that totally rode off Iowa because Jody Ernst wasn't. And

1834
01:44:07,960 --> 01:44:12,519
Speaker 1: I'm just sitting there going, yeah, you've never with all

1835
01:44:12,600 --> 01:44:16,080
Speaker 1: due respect, you know, if you if you've not seen

1836
01:44:16,160 --> 01:44:20,480
Speaker 1: Joony Ernst on the trails like a really good campaigner.

1837
01:44:20,560 --> 01:44:23,200
Speaker 3: So and is a good nominee.

1838
01:44:23,320 --> 01:44:25,719
Speaker 4: She's going to raise money, but like she never runs

1839
01:44:25,760 --> 01:44:31,320
Speaker 4: statewide before and again the wind in the face of

1840
01:44:31,800 --> 01:44:35,200
Speaker 4: Republicans and it's like turk to me, you know again.

1841
01:44:35,360 --> 01:44:39,360
Speaker 4: Paralympian he won two gold medals as a Paralympian basketball player.

1842
01:44:39,400 --> 01:44:41,519
Speaker 4: The guy's got an amazing story. He's I think if

1843
01:44:41,560 --> 01:44:44,800
Speaker 4: he's the nominee, really hard to attack. That's not easy

1844
01:44:44,840 --> 01:44:48,760
Speaker 4: to attack, like and may have it. He represents a

1845
01:44:48,880 --> 01:44:50,760
Speaker 4: district that Trump won, Like.

1846
01:44:50,840 --> 01:44:53,720
Speaker 3: There's there's some there there. I'm kind of keeping that

1847
01:44:53,800 --> 01:44:55,160
Speaker 3: one on hold, so.

1848
01:44:55,720 --> 01:44:57,479
Speaker 1: Let me try to land this plane. I did a

1849
01:44:57,520 --> 01:44:59,839
Speaker 1: substack this week about sort of kicking off the midterms

1850
01:45:00,120 --> 01:45:03,280
Speaker 1: and through the prism of twenty eight, meaning yep, look,

1851
01:45:03,600 --> 01:45:06,519
Speaker 1: we're not going, We're not going. Twenty six is going

1852
01:45:06,560 --> 01:45:09,840
Speaker 1: to offer us clues about how twenty eight may play out, right,

1853
01:45:10,479 --> 01:45:13,759
Speaker 1: Clue number one was a topic we've already discussed. Democrats

1854
01:45:13,800 --> 01:45:17,960
Speaker 1: want a fighter? Are they looking for in the words

1855
01:45:18,040 --> 01:45:21,600
Speaker 1: of my acquaintance, no more bomb throwers? Right, you know,

1856
01:45:21,720 --> 01:45:24,560
Speaker 1: what's the what's the what's the attitude in Texas? The

1857
01:45:24,640 --> 01:45:27,559
Speaker 1: clearly the attitude is please no bomb throwers. Give us

1858
01:45:27,600 --> 01:45:30,920
Speaker 1: somebody that can win. Let's see if that translates throughout

1859
01:45:31,000 --> 01:45:34,280
Speaker 1: the primary season. Number two is sort of the impact

1860
01:45:34,320 --> 01:45:36,679
Speaker 1: of Trump, Right, is Trump and that positive and that negative?

1861
01:45:36,880 --> 01:45:39,559
Speaker 1: How badly do you still need them? Obviously it's pretty

1862
01:45:39,600 --> 01:45:42,560
Speaker 1: clear Trump is still the most animating force. This is

1863
01:45:42,680 --> 01:45:45,160
Speaker 1: not a party that is yet thinking about the swing

1864
01:45:45,280 --> 01:45:48,679
Speaker 1: voter in the middle. And you know, is the White

1865
01:45:48,720 --> 01:45:51,000
Speaker 1: House focused on this? No, they don't appear to be.

1866
01:45:51,160 --> 01:45:53,840
Speaker 1: And you know that's a whole separate ball game. Right.

1867
01:45:54,080 --> 01:45:57,400
Speaker 1: If Trump takes the blame for a double whamming loss

1868
01:45:57,439 --> 01:46:00,640
Speaker 1: in the midterms, meaning House and Senate, how does that

1869
01:46:00,760 --> 01:46:04,320
Speaker 1: impact twenty eight? Right, that's we'll figure out. But the

1870
01:46:04,400 --> 01:46:06,960
Speaker 1: third item here is the last item that we haven't

1871
01:46:07,000 --> 01:46:11,719
Speaker 1: talked about, and we got a new candidate officially announced

1872
01:46:11,720 --> 01:46:12,280
Speaker 1: in Montana.

1873
01:46:12,800 --> 01:46:13,000
Speaker 3: Yep.

1874
01:46:13,360 --> 01:46:15,800
Speaker 1: The former president of University of Montana, who's running as

1875
01:46:15,800 --> 01:46:19,120
Speaker 1: an independent, announced by trashing both the d's and the R,

1876
01:46:19,200 --> 01:46:21,960
Speaker 1: saying both parties have let you down. John Tester, the

1877
01:46:22,040 --> 01:46:24,800
Speaker 1: former Democratic senator, has already endorsed him. There is a

1878
01:46:24,880 --> 01:46:32,040
Speaker 1: Democratic candidate and instead testers endorsing the independent. I'm looking

1879
01:46:32,120 --> 01:46:35,320
Speaker 1: at all of these these independent testers out here, whether

1880
01:46:35,360 --> 01:46:40,519
Speaker 1: it's Duggan and Michigan, Osborne and Nebraska Bodner now in Montana,

1881
01:46:40,720 --> 01:46:44,360
Speaker 1: South Dakota's got Dakota, Kansas looks like they're going to

1882
01:46:44,439 --> 01:46:44,800
Speaker 1: get one.

1883
01:46:45,040 --> 01:46:45,240
Speaker 3: Yep.

1884
01:46:45,960 --> 01:46:48,080
Speaker 1: Coming close is an interesting to me.

1885
01:46:49,000 --> 01:46:52,160
Speaker 3: You know, that's why we like that someone wins and

1886
01:46:52,200 --> 01:46:52,840
Speaker 3: someone loses.

1887
01:46:53,040 --> 01:46:56,920
Speaker 1: That's right. If if an independent breaks through, if one

1888
01:46:57,040 --> 01:47:01,280
Speaker 1: breaks through in any of those states, I think that's

1889
01:47:01,320 --> 01:47:05,439
Speaker 1: a big deal. Small deal, medium deal, I think big deal.

1890
01:47:06,200 --> 01:47:08,800
Speaker 4: I talked to Mike doug and former Detroit mayor running

1891
01:47:08,800 --> 01:47:10,800
Speaker 4: for governores. You know, I think he's in the mix.

1892
01:47:11,720 --> 01:47:13,240
Speaker 4: I don't think he's ahead, but I think he's in

1893
01:47:13,280 --> 01:47:15,880
Speaker 4: the mix. And his point was a point that you

1894
01:47:15,960 --> 01:47:19,280
Speaker 4: and I have talked about for decades, which is people

1895
01:47:19,479 --> 01:47:24,520
Speaker 4: need proof of concept. People won't buy that an independent

1896
01:47:24,600 --> 01:47:27,960
Speaker 4: can win a real statewide race and really matter until

1897
01:47:28,000 --> 01:47:31,640
Speaker 4: an independent it's a real It's like we, yes, we

1898
01:47:31,720 --> 01:47:33,400
Speaker 4: had when I was growing up, we had Low Wiker

1899
01:47:33,600 --> 01:47:37,040
Speaker 4: in Connecticut. Angus King was elected as a governor as

1900
01:47:37,080 --> 01:47:39,200
Speaker 4: an independent. Right. I mean, it happens, but it usually

1901
01:47:39,240 --> 01:47:44,000
Speaker 4: happens in smaller states. And it's like if Michigan elects

1902
01:47:44,160 --> 01:47:48,320
Speaker 4: an independent, a guy who's expressly running like I was

1903
01:47:48,400 --> 01:47:50,680
Speaker 4: a Democrat, I'm you know, I think both parties have

1904
01:47:50,720 --> 01:47:52,760
Speaker 4: failed us. I want to solve problems. It's a little

1905
01:47:52,800 --> 01:47:55,000
Speaker 4: bit an easier argument to make it for governor than

1906
01:47:55,040 --> 01:47:55,640
Speaker 4: for Senate, but.

1907
01:47:57,439 --> 01:47:58,360
Speaker 3: I think that's what you need.

1908
01:47:58,479 --> 01:48:01,240
Speaker 4: I'm fascinated by that Missichigan. You turned me onto that

1909
01:48:01,320 --> 01:48:04,519
Speaker 4: Michigan governor's race. And because what you have is like

1910
01:48:04,680 --> 01:48:08,519
Speaker 4: two only o K likely nominees for the two parties,

1911
01:48:08,720 --> 01:48:14,200
Speaker 4: like Joscelyn Benson's fine. I think James John James on

1912
01:48:14,240 --> 01:48:15,920
Speaker 4: the Republican side, it's totally fine.

1913
01:48:16,800 --> 01:48:21,720
Speaker 3: Competent speaks. There's nothing there's not like a Wimer in

1914
01:48:21,880 --> 01:48:22,800
Speaker 3: that field.

1915
01:48:23,160 --> 01:48:25,560
Speaker 1: And it's a little unfair to Jocelyn Benson. You know,

1916
01:48:25,600 --> 01:48:27,960
Speaker 1: it's like when you're the when you're the next woman

1917
01:48:28,160 --> 01:48:31,040
Speaker 1: in line behind a popular woman governor.

1918
01:48:30,800 --> 01:48:33,280
Speaker 3: That's true, or even Melissa slack Kid.

1919
01:48:33,720 --> 01:48:36,919
Speaker 4: My point is there's not somebody who's like an obvious

1920
01:48:36,960 --> 01:48:40,240
Speaker 4: shining star that could be it. I'm fascinated by that.

1921
01:48:40,439 --> 01:48:44,600
Speaker 4: And and look, it's both a condemnation of the Democratic

1922
01:48:44,760 --> 01:48:47,519
Speaker 4: brand in the Plaine States and also a really interesting

1923
01:48:47,640 --> 01:48:51,880
Speaker 4: experiment in the Plain States because all these people are

1924
01:48:51,960 --> 01:48:55,280
Speaker 4: aligned loosely. But but if I had to choose in

1925
01:48:55,400 --> 01:49:00,760
Speaker 4: South Dakota, Montana, the Kansas guy in South and in Nebraska,

1926
01:49:01,520 --> 01:49:04,640
Speaker 4: all of those guys running his independence, they're more on

1927
01:49:04,760 --> 01:49:07,400
Speaker 4: the Democratic side than the Republican side, but they none

1928
01:49:07,400 --> 01:49:09,519
Speaker 4: of them identify as a Democrat because they can't win.

1929
01:49:09,920 --> 01:49:11,200
Speaker 1: None of them would win with a D next to

1930
01:49:11,280 --> 01:49:11,599
Speaker 1: their name.

1931
01:49:11,600 --> 01:49:12,400
Speaker 3: We don't even have a chance.

1932
01:49:12,479 --> 01:49:14,800
Speaker 4: And I think they will admit that and that that's

1933
01:49:15,000 --> 01:49:17,679
Speaker 4: that's a brand problem for the party. But it's interesting,

1934
01:49:17,760 --> 01:49:20,080
Speaker 4: it's like what I help.

1935
01:49:20,439 --> 01:49:24,400
Speaker 1: Right, what to me, what makes Duggan's candidacy different is

1936
01:49:25,320 --> 01:49:29,040
Speaker 1: he's running as an independent. Win Arguably he could have

1937
01:49:29,160 --> 01:49:31,479
Speaker 1: had a better shot at winning a primary because he

1938
01:49:31,600 --> 01:49:34,280
Speaker 1: was mayor of Detroit, and it would have been the

1939
01:49:34,320 --> 01:49:37,280
Speaker 1: Democratic nominee, probably would have been the Democratic nominee, and

1940
01:49:38,200 --> 01:49:39,800
Speaker 1: but it was harder and he would have to run

1941
01:49:39,840 --> 01:49:42,040
Speaker 1: a bit more partisan, and he chose that he thought

1942
01:49:42,080 --> 01:49:45,200
Speaker 1: he could govern better as an independent, which that is

1943
01:49:46,000 --> 01:49:49,120
Speaker 1: at is something you don't. You rarely see someone make

1944
01:49:49,200 --> 01:49:52,080
Speaker 1: a choice that is harder politically. It would have been

1945
01:49:52,160 --> 01:49:55,519
Speaker 1: easier to become governor by running in a Democratic primary,

1946
01:49:55,560 --> 01:49:58,000
Speaker 1: and he chose not to. Look, I'm one of those

1947
01:49:58,040 --> 01:50:00,400
Speaker 1: I split the difference. I think it's a big deal

1948
01:50:00,439 --> 01:50:02,200
Speaker 1: if Doug and wins. I think it's a medium deal

1949
01:50:02,280 --> 01:50:04,720
Speaker 1: if any of the Senate independents wins and less more

1950
01:50:04,800 --> 01:50:08,439
Speaker 1: than one wins. Sure if both Osborne and say Bodner

1951
01:50:08,560 --> 01:50:12,599
Speaker 1: the Montana Nebraska both go, I, oh, well, then that's

1952
01:50:12,640 --> 01:50:15,639
Speaker 1: a big story. Then that's a big story. And then

1953
01:50:15,720 --> 01:50:18,599
Speaker 1: that's a that's an entirely different conversation. And I think

1954
01:50:19,120 --> 01:50:21,800
Speaker 1: what that will do. And I think a dug In

1955
01:50:21,880 --> 01:50:24,280
Speaker 1: victory all of them do this more than one I winning,

1956
01:50:25,040 --> 01:50:27,040
Speaker 1: I think almost guarantees we're going to have a three

1957
01:50:27,080 --> 01:50:27,559
Speaker 1: way president.

1958
01:50:27,960 --> 01:50:30,200
Speaker 4: I was literally just gonna say, you will see the

1959
01:50:30,360 --> 01:50:33,320
Speaker 4: independent third party candidates lining up to rite for president.

1960
01:50:33,520 --> 01:50:36,360
Speaker 1: But that's but twenty six is the testing ground told

1961
01:50:36,400 --> 01:50:37,559
Speaker 1: you've got to be able to break through.

1962
01:50:37,600 --> 01:50:40,200
Speaker 3: If you can't love that storyline, I'm fascinated by it.

1963
01:50:40,360 --> 01:50:42,320
Speaker 1: You can't, but I but I'm going to be as

1964
01:50:42,400 --> 01:50:44,439
Speaker 1: much as I'm a I'm an advocate of this moment

1965
01:50:44,600 --> 01:50:49,360
Speaker 1: for for for independence. If you can't win now, I

1966
01:50:49,400 --> 01:50:51,599
Speaker 1: don't think the water is going to ever be any better. Well,

1967
01:50:52,040 --> 01:50:55,400
Speaker 1: and so if it does party identification, it doesn't work now,

1968
01:50:55,640 --> 01:50:58,520
Speaker 1: it's not going to work galas party identification.

1969
01:50:58,600 --> 01:51:01,559
Speaker 4: I think Democrats and republic party ID is at twenty

1970
01:51:01,720 --> 01:51:06,280
Speaker 4: seven percent lowers Lee and Independence at forty five. I mean,

1971
01:51:06,320 --> 01:51:08,840
Speaker 4: so it's to your point, like, if you can't win

1972
01:51:08,960 --> 01:51:11,480
Speaker 4: with people hating the two political parties.

1973
01:51:11,720 --> 01:51:12,720
Speaker 3: I don't know when you do win.

1974
01:51:13,040 --> 01:51:14,640
Speaker 1: All right, let me really get you out of hearing this.

1975
01:51:15,080 --> 01:51:17,320
Speaker 1: Do you read Carl Heysen? Were you ever a big

1976
01:51:17,360 --> 01:51:17,640
Speaker 1: fan of his?

1977
01:51:18,520 --> 01:51:20,240
Speaker 3: He's a Florida man, right, yeah?

1978
01:51:20,360 --> 01:51:20,559
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1979
01:51:21,280 --> 01:51:24,479
Speaker 3: Arguably did one of his books. He's a like a

1980
01:51:25,040 --> 01:51:25,760
Speaker 3: funny writer.

1981
01:51:25,920 --> 01:51:26,519
Speaker 1: Am I remember?

1982
01:51:27,320 --> 01:51:29,519
Speaker 3: Yes? I need to read more because I remember I

1983
01:51:29,760 --> 01:51:30,599
Speaker 3: liked the one I read.

1984
01:51:31,040 --> 01:51:35,639
Speaker 1: My frustration with with with Carl is that they haven't

1985
01:51:35,680 --> 01:51:38,240
Speaker 1: made more of his books out of movie strip. Tea's

1986
01:51:38,400 --> 01:51:41,160
Speaker 1: was the first big movie he got, the Burt Reynolds

1987
01:51:41,240 --> 01:51:44,559
Speaker 1: and It's No Sugar Industry and it's The book is fantastic.

1988
01:51:44,680 --> 01:51:48,560
Speaker 1: The movie wasn't bad. Burt Reynolds plays a great sleevesball congressman.

1989
01:51:49,520 --> 01:51:52,560
Speaker 1: Else Yeah, I mean he really, it's it's it was

1990
01:51:52,640 --> 01:51:56,560
Speaker 1: the role I Ferguson, Oh turd Ferguson. He was, he was.

1991
01:51:56,920 --> 01:51:57,240
Speaker 4: It was.

1992
01:51:57,680 --> 01:51:59,000
Speaker 1: You know what if you told me it was actually

1993
01:51:59,000 --> 01:52:00,479
Speaker 1: Norm MacDonald playing Reynolds.

1994
01:52:00,960 --> 01:52:02,680
Speaker 3: It's like one of my favorite impersonations.

1995
01:52:03,360 --> 01:52:06,120
Speaker 1: It's fantastic because it's not right. That's what's so great

1996
01:52:06,120 --> 01:52:08,479
Speaker 1: about it. It's just not an impersonation. No, but I'm

1997
01:52:08,600 --> 01:52:12,360
Speaker 1: very excited. There's a new Carl Hyson book being turned

1998
01:52:12,400 --> 01:52:17,320
Speaker 1: into a to a TV show and uh, I'm just

1999
01:52:17,439 --> 01:52:19,439
Speaker 1: very excited about it. I think Amazon Prime is going

2000
01:52:19,479 --> 01:52:19,720
Speaker 1: to have it.

2001
01:52:20,080 --> 01:52:21,200
Speaker 3: What is what book is?

2002
01:52:21,960 --> 01:52:25,120
Speaker 1: R J. Decker is what the new show? It's on ABC.

2003
01:52:25,400 --> 01:52:31,519
Speaker 1: It's from his book Double Whamming on Broadcast Broadcast. That's sorry,

2004
01:52:31,560 --> 01:52:32,679
Speaker 1: I thought it was trying.

2005
01:52:32,520 --> 01:52:34,400
Speaker 4: Not to watch a lot of broadcast TV, Chuck, it

2006
01:52:34,439 --> 01:52:37,040
Speaker 4: doesn't fit with my hipster personality, I know.

2007
01:52:37,400 --> 01:52:39,880
Speaker 1: But you know, both ABC and CBS are desperate and

2008
01:52:40,000 --> 01:52:42,360
Speaker 1: NBC are desperate to be cool again, so they're green

2009
01:52:42,439 --> 01:52:46,240
Speaker 1: lighting grittier television. I like it, you know, but I'm

2010
01:52:46,320 --> 01:52:50,519
Speaker 1: just very happy I think more. Look, my favorite Carl

2011
01:52:50,600 --> 01:52:54,200
Speaker 1: Hyason book is called Tourist Season. Kay, it is?

2012
01:52:54,640 --> 01:52:54,880
Speaker 4: It is?

2013
01:52:55,360 --> 01:52:58,920
Speaker 1: What is it? It's it's a former Miami Dolphin, a

2014
01:52:59,000 --> 01:53:06,320
Speaker 1: former Order, a Mikasuki Indian, and a Cuban exile together.

2015
01:53:06,520 --> 01:53:09,280
Speaker 1: I'm in, who are sort of this group of guys

2016
01:53:09,320 --> 01:53:12,599
Speaker 1: who are just going to rid Florida of its asshole

2017
01:53:12,720 --> 01:53:15,360
Speaker 1: tourists And it's just a It's.

2018
01:53:15,120 --> 01:53:17,479
Speaker 3: Just I love the concept. I'm already in on the concept.

2019
01:53:17,760 --> 01:53:20,400
Speaker 1: They never kill anybody. They just let the tourists and

2020
01:53:20,479 --> 01:53:22,000
Speaker 1: the alligators fight it out.

2021
01:53:22,400 --> 01:53:23,920
Speaker 3: Darwin situations.

2022
01:53:24,760 --> 01:53:25,000
Speaker 4: It is.

2023
01:53:25,439 --> 01:53:29,559
Speaker 1: But Carl was a political columnist forever in the Miami

2024
01:53:29,600 --> 01:53:33,240
Speaker 1: heralds and basically, when you chronicle all the crazy Florida

2025
01:53:33,320 --> 01:53:35,880
Speaker 1: man stories that go back, he and Dave Berry, by

2026
01:53:35,880 --> 01:53:37,800
Speaker 1: the way, how great you know back in the day

2027
01:53:37,840 --> 01:53:41,920
Speaker 1: in the Miami Herald, Dave Berry and carlas I grew

2028
01:53:42,040 --> 01:53:43,680
Speaker 1: up with. And it's like, this is why I got

2029
01:53:43,720 --> 01:53:47,600
Speaker 1: into journalism and newspaper, guys, because you had great columnists

2030
01:53:47,640 --> 01:53:50,800
Speaker 1: in my local paper, you know that were just hilarious.

2031
01:53:50,880 --> 01:53:52,760
Speaker 1: You know, my parents would always go, did you read

2032
01:53:52,800 --> 01:53:55,479
Speaker 1: what Dave Barry said? Did you read what carlhis started

2033
01:53:55,479 --> 01:53:55,840
Speaker 1: writing a.

2034
01:53:55,960 --> 01:53:59,160
Speaker 3: Sports section with Tony Kornheiser, Mike Wilbon and Shirley Povitch.

2035
01:53:59,360 --> 01:54:02,080
Speaker 3: You get of it? Wait, no one would do that.

2036
01:54:02,479 --> 01:54:03,759
Speaker 3: That would be idiotic.

2037
01:54:04,120 --> 01:54:06,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, at least the Miami. Harold still actually wants

2038
01:54:06,840 --> 01:54:08,639
Speaker 1: to publish a highest and column every now and then,

2039
01:54:08,840 --> 01:54:10,920
Speaker 1: and at Dave Barry. By the way, Dave Barry is

2040
01:54:10,960 --> 01:54:14,720
Speaker 1: a substack, I know, and it's funny as hell. It's

2041
01:54:14,800 --> 01:54:18,240
Speaker 1: really funny. I know he's not everybody's cup of tea,

2042
01:54:18,439 --> 01:54:19,080
Speaker 1: but it's funny.

2043
01:54:19,320 --> 01:54:21,200
Speaker 4: My wife yells at me because she's like, we just

2044
01:54:21,280 --> 01:54:24,280
Speaker 4: got another charge on your kindle. How many books can

2045
01:54:24,320 --> 01:54:25,840
Speaker 4: you possibly read? And I was like, if that's my

2046
01:54:26,000 --> 01:54:28,400
Speaker 4: worst vice, so I'm going to go buy to our season.

2047
01:54:28,439 --> 01:54:29,599
Speaker 4: So if my wife yells at.

2048
01:54:29,520 --> 01:54:32,520
Speaker 1: You, it's because I blamed you for it. It's it's fantastic.

2049
01:54:32,640 --> 01:54:33,480
Speaker 3: And I do believe.

2050
01:54:34,360 --> 01:54:38,120
Speaker 1: I do believe he's one of his fictional characters is

2051
01:54:38,560 --> 01:54:42,400
Speaker 1: who he thinks Lawton child's would be if he walk Yeah,

2052
01:54:42,520 --> 01:54:43,320
Speaker 1: he's got a great lot.

2053
01:54:44,880 --> 01:54:45,200
Speaker 3: Take care.

2054
01:54:54,960 --> 01:54:58,200
Speaker 1: Well, before I get to questions, I want to deal

2055
01:54:58,280 --> 01:55:01,120
Speaker 1: with a little bit of break. It was perfect with

2056
01:55:01,280 --> 01:55:03,839
Speaker 1: breaking news as we were taping this pod for the weekend,

2057
01:55:03,880 --> 01:55:06,800
Speaker 1: and sometimes you're relieved when it happens while you're still

2058
01:55:06,840 --> 01:55:08,480
Speaker 1: in the midst of taping and the big breaking news

2059
01:55:08,520 --> 01:55:12,520
Speaker 1: with Steve Daines calling it a career in Montana and

2060
01:55:12,720 --> 01:55:17,480
Speaker 1: doing it within seconds of the end of the filing deadline. Look,

2061
01:55:17,560 --> 01:55:21,880
Speaker 1: I'm coming to you pretty cold on this, but if

2062
01:55:21,920 --> 01:55:25,440
Speaker 1: you recall a couple of a couple of months ago

2063
01:55:25,480 --> 01:55:30,480
Speaker 1: when I was talking about the what you what were

2064
01:55:30,520 --> 01:55:34,080
Speaker 1: you would likely to see as this, you know that

2065
01:55:34,200 --> 01:55:38,280
Speaker 1: there would probably be some more retirements that we weren't expecting.

2066
01:55:38,920 --> 01:55:41,760
Speaker 1: This will put Montana, this is this is going to

2067
01:55:41,840 --> 01:55:46,080
Speaker 1: put the Montana sentenceeat completely really in play. Now there

2068
01:55:46,080 --> 01:55:48,760
Speaker 1: will be a maybe there's a Republican primary, or maybe

2069
01:55:48,800 --> 01:55:51,600
Speaker 1: there's a quick endorsement, and maybe there's a deal. Maybe

2070
01:55:51,640 --> 01:55:54,160
Speaker 1: this is why Zinke's We're going to figure all this

2071
01:55:54,320 --> 01:55:57,560
Speaker 1: out and I'm I'm you know, but the bottom line

2072
01:55:57,680 --> 01:56:01,920
Speaker 1: is Montana is a competitive state. We've already seen the

2073
01:56:02,080 --> 01:56:05,560
Speaker 1: question now is whether does this Independent Canada get more traction?

2074
01:56:06,920 --> 01:56:11,320
Speaker 1: Is there pressure on John Tester to come out of retirement.

2075
01:56:12,160 --> 01:56:17,040
Speaker 1: I'm I have there's every indication in the interactions I've

2076
01:56:17,080 --> 01:56:19,600
Speaker 1: had with with with John over the last few months.

2077
01:56:20,440 --> 01:56:22,520
Speaker 1: I'd be surprised he wants to get off that tractor

2078
01:56:22,560 --> 01:56:24,360
Speaker 1: now that he gets to be on that tractor every day.

2079
01:56:24,520 --> 01:56:27,800
Speaker 1: So I don't think he's going I would be surprised

2080
01:56:27,880 --> 01:56:30,840
Speaker 1: if he did. But now we've got an open house seat,

2081
01:56:30,920 --> 01:56:36,000
Speaker 1: an open Senate seat, Montana is going to be a

2082
01:56:36,280 --> 01:56:41,440
Speaker 1: now key cog in campaign twenty twenty six, and it's

2083
01:56:41,480 --> 01:56:45,920
Speaker 1: going to be an interesting test because Montana is a

2084
01:56:46,000 --> 01:56:49,600
Speaker 1: red state, but it's a libertarian red state, right, It's different,

2085
01:56:51,520 --> 01:56:57,720
Speaker 1: and there is a skepticism of you know, of strong government,

2086
01:56:58,360 --> 01:57:01,200
Speaker 1: right Trump is not in know this is this is

2087
01:57:01,240 --> 01:57:04,000
Speaker 1: a bit more of a libertarian conservative state rather than

2088
01:57:04,080 --> 01:57:09,240
Speaker 1: a strong government conservative state. So it's you know, the

2089
01:57:09,440 --> 01:57:12,000
Speaker 1: right type of you know, you've got to be a

2090
01:57:12,200 --> 01:57:15,040
Speaker 1: pro Second Amendment Democrat if you want to win state

2091
01:57:15,080 --> 01:57:19,720
Speaker 1: wide in Montana. And you know, but being skeptical of

2092
01:57:20,240 --> 01:57:23,480
Speaker 1: too much development is actually a good thing in Montana.

2093
01:57:23,520 --> 01:57:26,920
Speaker 1: And sometimes that you know, Democrats have done well when

2094
01:57:26,960 --> 01:57:32,200
Speaker 1: they've been able to paint a Republican as a sort

2095
01:57:32,240 --> 01:57:37,120
Speaker 1: of as a as a transplant, if you will, or

2096
01:57:37,160 --> 01:57:39,919
Speaker 1: somebody that just sort of you know, has moved to Montana.

2097
01:57:40,000 --> 01:57:42,600
Speaker 1: There's a real sort of are you native not native

2098
01:57:42,840 --> 01:57:47,400
Speaker 1: divide there if you watch Yellowstone at all. In fact,

2099
01:57:47,480 --> 01:57:49,800
Speaker 1: the I think in season four and season five that

2100
01:57:49,880 --> 01:57:54,760
Speaker 1: becomes a piece of that of that storyline, which is

2101
01:57:54,920 --> 01:57:58,360
Speaker 1: the skepticism of the outsiders coming in and fear that

2102
01:57:58,480 --> 01:58:02,760
Speaker 1: Montana is going to become the next Colorado. Right, Colorado's politics.

2103
01:58:02,920 --> 01:58:06,320
Speaker 1: You talk to old cranky conservative libertarian conservatives in Colorado

2104
01:58:06,320 --> 01:58:09,080
Speaker 1: and they'll tell you this state change when the Californians

2105
01:58:09,120 --> 01:58:12,120
Speaker 1: moved here. And that's what you hear from some Now

2106
01:58:12,240 --> 01:58:15,160
Speaker 1: Montana's this state's changing now that the Californians and the

2107
01:58:15,200 --> 01:58:16,920
Speaker 1: New Yorkers are coming, because I think there's now a

2108
01:58:17,280 --> 01:58:23,680
Speaker 1: NonStop from LaGuardia to Bozeman, right, And you would think,

2109
01:58:23,840 --> 01:58:26,320
Speaker 1: is that a good thing for Bozeman or do they

2110
01:58:26,400 --> 01:58:28,400
Speaker 1: not want to make it so easy for the East

2111
01:58:28,440 --> 01:58:34,640
Speaker 1: Coasters to come in? But this is a what's amazing

2112
01:58:34,680 --> 01:58:38,360
Speaker 1: about Danes doing this at the last minute? Again, one

2113
01:58:38,640 --> 01:58:42,320
Speaker 1: assumes since he was an actual NRSC chair a cycle

2114
01:58:42,400 --> 01:58:46,200
Speaker 1: ago in charge of helping to get Republicans elected to

2115
01:58:46,280 --> 01:58:49,400
Speaker 1: the Senate, that there is some sort of plan here,

2116
01:58:50,640 --> 01:58:53,520
Speaker 1: because this puts the Republicans on the defensive. This is

2117
01:58:53,600 --> 01:58:56,280
Speaker 1: a This is not an easy seat. This is like

2118
01:58:56,440 --> 01:59:01,640
Speaker 1: defending an open seat in Alaska. You're the Republicans are favored,

2119
01:59:02,640 --> 01:59:09,520
Speaker 1: but it's going to be some work. But I can't

2120
01:59:09,560 --> 01:59:11,720
Speaker 1: help but go back to what I said at the

2121
01:59:11,760 --> 01:59:16,880
Speaker 1: start of this calendar year about the growing number of retirements.

2122
01:59:16,920 --> 01:59:18,680
Speaker 1: And granted that was more on the House side than

2123
01:59:18,720 --> 01:59:20,480
Speaker 1: it is on the Senate side. But as these filing

2124
01:59:20,520 --> 01:59:22,160
Speaker 1: deadlines are coming up that you were going to have

2125
01:59:22,280 --> 01:59:24,440
Speaker 1: some that we're going to have second thoughts that they

2126
01:59:24,520 --> 01:59:27,560
Speaker 1: want to tie themselves to Trump for one more election cycle.

2127
01:59:27,960 --> 01:59:29,800
Speaker 1: Do they see the riding on the wall? Do they

2128
01:59:29,880 --> 01:59:33,960
Speaker 1: want to be in the minority? There is, you know

2129
01:59:34,080 --> 01:59:37,360
Speaker 1: again where we'll find out all of his rationale. I'm

2130
01:59:37,640 --> 01:59:40,920
Speaker 1: admittedly coming to you with very you know, other than

2131
01:59:41,240 --> 01:59:43,960
Speaker 1: the news that he's not running, and we're going to

2132
01:59:44,000 --> 01:59:47,320
Speaker 1: get more information about that. But the reality is an

2133
01:59:47,400 --> 01:59:51,320
Speaker 1: open seat means competition, and this was already a race

2134
01:59:51,400 --> 01:59:53,720
Speaker 1: that Democrats were trying to figure out, do they try

2135
01:59:53,760 --> 01:59:56,000
Speaker 1: to put it in play getting behind an independent candidate,

2136
01:59:56,480 --> 01:59:58,440
Speaker 1: or is there is there another way to do this? Well,

2137
01:59:58,480 --> 02:00:01,720
Speaker 1: now they're definitely going to pl and the question is

2138
02:00:01,800 --> 02:00:06,160
Speaker 1: what you know? Basically, it's it's as if the you know,

2139
02:00:06,400 --> 02:00:08,440
Speaker 1: you played my father's favorite card game when I was

2140
02:00:08,480 --> 02:00:11,000
Speaker 1: five years old, fifty two pickup. Right, You've just thrown

2141
02:00:11,040 --> 02:00:12,800
Speaker 1: all the cards, the decker cards, up in the air,

2142
02:00:13,440 --> 02:00:15,760
Speaker 1: and now we've got to figure out where everything is

2143
02:00:15,840 --> 02:00:17,520
Speaker 1: going to end up and where everything's going to play.

2144
02:00:18,240 --> 02:00:24,360
Speaker 1: But that's another seat to defend in a place that

2145
02:00:24,480 --> 02:00:28,560
Speaker 1: Democrats have had success in the past, particularly in midterm years.

2146
02:00:30,360 --> 02:00:32,680
Speaker 1: It is it is a lot easier for a Democrat

2147
02:00:32,760 --> 02:00:35,600
Speaker 1: to pull off a victory in a midterm year in

2148
02:00:35,760 --> 02:00:39,960
Speaker 1: Montana than it is in a presidential year. That is

2149
02:00:40,320 --> 02:00:45,600
Speaker 1: a much harder task, particularly percentate candidates. But boy, this

2150
02:00:45,760 --> 02:00:50,000
Speaker 1: week keeps getting worse for the Republicans. Right, you have

2151
02:00:50,120 --> 02:00:53,160
Speaker 1: a White House completely distracted by the the you know,

2152
02:00:53,200 --> 02:00:56,080
Speaker 1: when was the last time they did affordability pitch? It's

2153
02:00:56,160 --> 02:01:02,280
Speaker 1: the infrastructure week of this term for Trump. He is

2154
02:01:02,960 --> 02:01:05,760
Speaker 1: bogging the party down to having to defend something that

2155
02:01:05,920 --> 02:01:07,960
Speaker 1: is not going to be very popular. That's taking place

2156
02:01:08,000 --> 02:01:11,120
Speaker 1: in Iran, and now they have more places where their

2157
02:01:11,440 --> 02:01:14,240
Speaker 1: vulnerability is going to be. It is going to be

2158
02:01:14,280 --> 02:01:21,000
Speaker 1: on the ballot. So Democrats, Haley Barber is im good

2159
02:01:21,080 --> 02:01:26,200
Speaker 1: gets better and bad gets worse. I think we just

2160
02:01:26,280 --> 02:01:28,400
Speaker 1: have a week a headlines that show you for the Democrats,

2161
02:01:28,440 --> 02:01:30,760
Speaker 1: good has gotten better. They got the candidate they wanted,

2162
02:01:31,440 --> 02:01:34,360
Speaker 1: no runoff. Republicans haven't run off. Now they got a

2163
02:01:34,400 --> 02:01:38,080
Speaker 1: new open seat they can target. Good got better, Bad

2164
02:01:38,160 --> 02:01:42,160
Speaker 1: got worse. They're stuck going to run off. The President's

2165
02:01:43,160 --> 02:01:46,280
Speaker 1: demanding somebody drop out. We'll see if that happens. They

2166
02:01:46,320 --> 02:01:50,360
Speaker 1: have another incumbent deciding I'm out. I'm not doing this

2167
02:01:50,440 --> 02:01:54,240
Speaker 1: anymore for whatever reason that is. And oh, by the way,

2168
02:01:55,200 --> 02:02:00,800
Speaker 1: he just started a war that is rising at best

2169
02:02:01,680 --> 02:02:07,040
Speaker 1: and shifting towards potentially majority unpopular at worse, that is

2170
02:02:07,120 --> 02:02:13,160
Speaker 1: getting worse. Ass Chuck, Hey, Chuck, watching your live stream

2171
02:02:13,200 --> 02:02:15,560
Speaker 1: and the Texas primary night, love the coverage. I'm curious

2172
02:02:15,560 --> 02:02:17,880
Speaker 1: of states that are traditionally red or blue get less

2173
02:02:18,080 --> 02:02:20,640
Speaker 1: federal investment than swing states. Does a traditionally red state

2174
02:02:20,720 --> 02:02:22,800
Speaker 1: like Texas get taken for granted by the right and

2175
02:02:22,880 --> 02:02:25,120
Speaker 1: ignored by the left, while Ohio gets all the infrastructure

2176
02:02:25,160 --> 02:02:28,120
Speaker 1: investments as both sides try to woo their vote. For example,

2177
02:02:28,160 --> 02:02:29,560
Speaker 1: if this is the case, I wonder I people would

2178
02:02:29,600 --> 02:02:32,000
Speaker 1: feel a little worse about the jerrymandering that locks of

2179
02:02:32,040 --> 02:02:35,960
Speaker 1: state's representation in for a particular party. He goes thanks

2180
02:02:35,960 --> 02:02:37,960
Speaker 1: to his PS I listened to your podcast on one

2181
02:02:38,000 --> 02:02:40,880
Speaker 1: point three speed, and my girlfriend listens at regular speed.

2182
02:02:41,360 --> 02:02:44,520
Speaker 1: This may end up being our deal breaker. That's interesting.

2183
02:02:44,560 --> 02:02:46,480
Speaker 1: I already feel like I'm kind of a fast talker,

2184
02:02:46,720 --> 02:02:48,400
Speaker 1: so I don't know how I feel about being on

2185
02:02:48,440 --> 02:02:50,600
Speaker 1: one PA feed. And if I start speeding up, what

2186
02:02:50,640 --> 02:02:52,520
Speaker 1: does it sound like if you put this on one

2187
02:02:52,560 --> 02:02:55,520
Speaker 1: point three speed? All right, I know I'm coming across.

2188
02:02:56,160 --> 02:02:57,880
Speaker 1: I was going to make a reference to the to

2189
02:02:58,000 --> 02:02:59,920
Speaker 1: a FedEx ad from the late eighties, and I thought,

2190
02:03:00,040 --> 02:03:03,120
Speaker 1: wait a minute. I'm guessing you have no idea what

2191
02:03:03,160 --> 02:03:07,879
Speaker 1: I'm talking about. So I'll give you a better example

2192
02:03:07,920 --> 02:03:11,320
Speaker 1: than what you just described. You know why I have ethanol.

2193
02:03:11,800 --> 02:03:16,320
Speaker 1: Why we all put ethanol in an ethanol mixture in

2194
02:03:16,440 --> 02:03:19,680
Speaker 1: our cars for gasoline. It's because Iowa was a first

2195
02:03:19,760 --> 02:03:23,000
Speaker 1: in the nation state for the presidential caucuses over the

2196
02:03:23,120 --> 02:03:26,480
Speaker 1: last forty years, and you've had candidates on both sides

2197
02:03:26,480 --> 02:03:29,320
Speaker 1: of the alpander to the ethanol industry. That's a big

2198
02:03:29,440 --> 02:03:33,160
Speaker 1: deal in Iowa. So being you know, being a presidential

2199
02:03:33,200 --> 02:03:37,240
Speaker 1: primary state, your issues matter. You know, I promise you

2200
02:03:37,360 --> 02:03:41,880
Speaker 1: if Nevada stays first in the nation, Yuca Mountain is

2201
02:03:41,960 --> 02:03:45,480
Speaker 1: never going to be a place where our nuclear waste

2202
02:03:45,520 --> 02:03:47,320
Speaker 1: gets dumped because you'll never be able to win the

2203
02:03:47,400 --> 02:03:51,360
Speaker 1: Nevada caucuses if you're a presidential candidate saying no, we

2204
02:03:51,400 --> 02:03:53,720
Speaker 1: should put our nuclear waste in the desert in Nevada.

2205
02:03:55,400 --> 02:03:59,000
Speaker 1: The point is, the answer is yes. Now, Texas is

2206
02:03:59,080 --> 02:04:02,320
Speaker 1: not the best example because Texas being such a when

2207
02:04:02,440 --> 02:04:09,520
Speaker 1: Republicans are in power, just like Texas benefits when Democrats

2208
02:04:09,560 --> 02:04:13,080
Speaker 1: are in power, California, New York benefit and you see

2209
02:04:13,120 --> 02:04:16,240
Speaker 1: it directly. And why do they benefit Well, a lot

2210
02:04:16,280 --> 02:04:23,280
Speaker 1: of the time the leaders of Congress end up coming

2211
02:04:23,480 --> 02:04:28,520
Speaker 1: from some of the largest delegations and maybe they'll be

2212
02:04:28,600 --> 02:04:34,440
Speaker 1: the top leader like Schumer, New York, Pelosi, California, aking Jeffreys,

2213
02:04:34,520 --> 02:04:38,320
Speaker 1: New York, or they're you know the number two or

2214
02:04:38,400 --> 02:04:41,280
Speaker 1: number three. You know in this right, John Cornyn ran

2215
02:04:41,360 --> 02:04:47,000
Speaker 1: for leader, he once was, you've got you know, back

2216
02:04:47,080 --> 02:04:50,320
Speaker 1: in the early Oughts. Tom Delay essentially ran Congress. He

2217
02:04:50,480 --> 02:04:54,960
Speaker 1: was a suburban Houston member of Congress, Dick Army. There

2218
02:04:55,040 --> 02:04:56,920
Speaker 1: was a time that Texas had number two in number

2219
02:04:57,000 --> 02:05:00,440
Speaker 1: three in the House leadership. So I don't know if

2220
02:05:00,480 --> 02:05:03,320
Speaker 1: Texas is the best example on that front, but the

2221
02:05:03,400 --> 02:05:11,120
Speaker 1: point is, the point is your instinct is spot on right,

2222
02:05:11,280 --> 02:05:17,080
Speaker 1: which is the more competitive of an area that you are,

2223
02:05:17,920 --> 02:05:22,120
Speaker 1: the more likely candidates are going to pander with you

2224
02:05:22,320 --> 02:05:27,440
Speaker 1: with to fight for you on certain issues inside the

2225
02:05:27,520 --> 02:05:31,720
Speaker 1: federal government. And if you're consistently a swing state or

2226
02:05:31,800 --> 02:05:35,480
Speaker 1: a swing area or all of this, like Iowa was

2227
02:05:35,640 --> 02:05:40,600
Speaker 1: for about thirty years. And magically ethanol is going to

2228
02:05:40,600 --> 02:05:42,640
Speaker 1: be something that you pump into your car whether you're

2229
02:05:42,680 --> 02:05:45,240
Speaker 1: in the state of Florida, state of Alaska, or the

2230
02:05:45,320 --> 02:05:51,720
Speaker 1: state of Iowa. So yeah, there was a time that

2231
02:05:51,840 --> 02:05:54,480
Speaker 1: that mattered to voters, that mattered to lawmakers, and that

2232
02:05:54,600 --> 02:05:59,360
Speaker 1: would be what state you know, ultimately right, it is state.

2233
02:05:59,440 --> 02:06:02,560
Speaker 1: You know. This is why having the state legislatures in

2234
02:06:02,680 --> 02:06:06,120
Speaker 1: charge of designing the lines, you would think this would

2235
02:06:06,240 --> 02:06:08,920
Speaker 1: come into their you know, And it used to be

2236
02:06:09,080 --> 02:06:15,040
Speaker 1: states actually wanted to keep to make sure they had

2237
02:06:16,200 --> 02:06:19,040
Speaker 1: senior had some member of Congress either in the center

2238
02:06:19,120 --> 02:06:23,280
Speaker 1: of the House that had enough seniority that whichever party

2239
02:06:23,400 --> 02:06:26,560
Speaker 1: was in charge of Washington at a given time, they

2240
02:06:26,640 --> 02:06:31,600
Speaker 1: had some influence. Parties cared about having that right. That's

2241
02:06:31,600 --> 02:06:35,000
Speaker 1: why you had for the longest time one D and

2242
02:06:35,080 --> 02:06:37,640
Speaker 1: one R senator from Iowa, right, Harken and Grassley, they

2243
02:06:37,720 --> 02:06:40,760
Speaker 1: served together. It seemed like forever, at least a good

2244
02:06:40,800 --> 02:06:47,600
Speaker 1: twenty plus years. South Dakota had this where there was

2245
02:06:47,720 --> 02:06:50,440
Speaker 1: this hope. You know, essentially Montana was big with this,

2246
02:06:50,640 --> 02:06:56,000
Speaker 1: so particularly smaller states over time valued having that. So anyway,

2247
02:06:56,720 --> 02:06:59,920
Speaker 1: your instinct is spot on on this. Like like I said,

2248
02:07:00,040 --> 02:07:02,160
Speaker 1: Texas is that is not the best example because of

2249
02:07:02,240 --> 02:07:05,880
Speaker 1: your partisan state, but you're a big state. You end

2250
02:07:06,000 --> 02:07:09,320
Speaker 1: up getting you end up just by by sheer numbers.

2251
02:07:09,960 --> 02:07:12,400
Speaker 1: You end up having somebody in a leadership position that

2252
02:07:12,520 --> 02:07:16,000
Speaker 1: can truly directly impact, right, And if you don't, if

2253
02:07:16,040 --> 02:07:17,680
Speaker 1: you're not in leadership, you may be on the most

2254
02:07:17,720 --> 02:07:21,080
Speaker 1: important committees, right or be chair of the most important committees.

2255
02:07:21,080 --> 02:07:23,160
Speaker 1: I think a Texan has been in charge of the

2256
02:07:23,240 --> 02:07:25,520
Speaker 1: tach Ways and Means Committee off and on I think

2257
02:07:25,800 --> 02:07:33,160
Speaker 1: four different times this century. So so you know, anyway,

2258
02:07:33,240 --> 02:07:38,600
Speaker 1: the point is yes in general, just wrong example, I

2259
02:07:38,640 --> 02:07:40,880
Speaker 1: would just pick a different state, you know. I think

2260
02:07:41,360 --> 02:07:43,920
Speaker 1: take in Oklahoma, right, They're going to have a harder

2261
02:07:43,960 --> 02:07:48,200
Speaker 1: time unless they, you know, or Wyoming has a member

2262
02:07:48,240 --> 02:07:51,640
Speaker 1: of leadership on the Republican side that helps them. But

2263
02:07:51,760 --> 02:07:57,920
Speaker 1: you get my drift on that. Next question comes from

2264
02:07:57,960 --> 02:08:02,160
Speaker 1: Adam B. Davey, Florida suburb in Broward County. For those

2265
02:08:02,200 --> 02:08:04,760
Speaker 1: of you wondering, Hey, Chuck, could the Trump administration try

2266
02:08:04,800 --> 02:08:07,600
Speaker 1: to trigger NATO's Article five over Iran, either to pressure

2267
02:08:07,640 --> 02:08:09,960
Speaker 1: allies to join the conflict or to highlight NATO's limits

2268
02:08:10,000 --> 02:08:12,480
Speaker 1: if they refuse, Or does the administration ultimately know the

2269
02:08:12,560 --> 02:08:15,080
Speaker 1: US still needs its European allies for logistics and defense.

2270
02:08:15,800 --> 02:08:17,880
Speaker 1: Ps I quit watching college football. With the breakup of

2271
02:08:17,880 --> 02:08:21,240
Speaker 1: the Big East, my native West Virginia University was left

2272
02:08:21,240 --> 02:08:22,960
Speaker 1: playing a bunch of games out in Texas and the

2273
02:08:23,040 --> 02:08:27,520
Speaker 1: prairie lands. We don't belong there. Well, I'm gonna get

2274
02:08:27,520 --> 02:08:29,880
Speaker 1: to that in a minute, Adam, because I West Virginia's

2275
02:08:30,400 --> 02:08:32,960
Speaker 1: I agree that they've been uniquely screwed in all this,

2276
02:08:35,200 --> 02:08:37,680
Speaker 1: in the in the expansion and the realignment and all

2277
02:08:37,720 --> 02:08:39,880
Speaker 1: of that in West Virginia because it doesn't have a

2278
02:08:40,000 --> 02:08:43,960
Speaker 1: large media market. That instantaneously means money is sort of

2279
02:08:44,240 --> 02:08:47,920
Speaker 1: you know, mess things up. But anyway, but let me

2280
02:08:47,960 --> 02:08:51,480
Speaker 1: answer your first question. No, I mean, look at how

2281
02:08:51,880 --> 02:08:55,240
Speaker 1: instead of using NATO, looks like Trump's using trade deals. Right,

2282
02:08:55,320 --> 02:08:58,440
Speaker 1: he got Spain to climb on board after doing some

2283
02:08:58,560 --> 02:09:03,800
Speaker 1: threats on trade deal. Now here's another what if Turkey

2284
02:09:04,000 --> 02:09:07,720
Speaker 1: triggers Article five? Right? You know, a Turkey ended up

2285
02:09:07,760 --> 02:09:11,640
Speaker 1: shooting down some sort of Iranian I think missile that

2286
02:09:11,720 --> 02:09:15,200
Speaker 1: was coming into its airspace. And Turkey is a member

2287
02:09:15,200 --> 02:09:18,320
Speaker 1: of NATO, so maybe they end up triggering Article five,

2288
02:09:18,400 --> 02:09:22,080
Speaker 1: which does this. And my guess is to be a

2289
02:09:22,160 --> 02:09:24,120
Speaker 1: bit cynical about how this would work. If I were

2290
02:09:24,120 --> 02:09:26,320
Speaker 1: in Trump's shoes, I wouldn't want to trigger NATO, but

2291
02:09:26,440 --> 02:09:29,160
Speaker 1: I would maybe if I wanted that I would trigger.

2292
02:09:30,560 --> 02:09:33,560
Speaker 1: I would let Turkey trigger it. But no, I mean,

2293
02:09:34,120 --> 02:09:36,480
Speaker 1: you know, it's interesting. In a sidebar story I've been

2294
02:09:36,520 --> 02:09:40,120
Speaker 1: following all this week is the fascinating debate inside the

2295
02:09:40,400 --> 02:09:43,480
Speaker 1: UK Parliament because Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, has not

2296
02:09:43,760 --> 02:09:48,360
Speaker 1: come out wholeheartedly supportive of American action, which is so unusual.

2297
02:09:48,800 --> 02:09:52,640
Speaker 1: The UK is always sort of right behind us whatever

2298
02:09:52,720 --> 02:09:56,800
Speaker 1: we do, right, the so called special relationship not there

2299
02:09:56,880 --> 02:10:03,200
Speaker 1: this time. That is, you know it. The debate in

2300
02:10:03,280 --> 02:10:07,120
Speaker 1: different European capitals about what we're doing in Iran is

2301
02:10:08,600 --> 02:10:15,480
Speaker 1: I think going to increase and get intense. I if

2302
02:10:15,640 --> 02:10:18,360
Speaker 1: Trump really wanted to cause a problem within NATO, he

2303
02:10:18,440 --> 02:10:22,640
Speaker 1: could do this, but I you know, I don't. We

2304
02:10:22,760 --> 02:10:26,080
Speaker 1: weren't attacked first, right, so I'm not even sure it

2305
02:10:26,080 --> 02:10:30,800
Speaker 1: would it would qualify on that front, you know, with

2306
02:10:30,960 --> 02:10:36,440
Speaker 1: West Virginia. When I when I moved to d C

2307
02:10:37,000 --> 02:10:41,080
Speaker 1: for college in nineteen nineteen, this is still the you know,

2308
02:10:41,200 --> 02:10:44,960
Speaker 1: still the heart of the the of Miami's you know,

2309
02:10:45,120 --> 02:10:48,280
Speaker 1: prominence in college football. The one thing I was excited

2310
02:10:48,280 --> 02:10:51,640
Speaker 1: about about being in DC going to GW one was

2311
02:10:51,720 --> 02:10:53,480
Speaker 1: Geneman have football team, so I didn't have to feel

2312
02:10:53,480 --> 02:10:56,720
Speaker 1: guilty about rooting for Miami football. Two, being in the

2313
02:10:56,720 --> 02:10:59,920
Speaker 1: Big East, I realized I was a road trip away

2314
02:11:00,040 --> 02:11:03,080
Speaker 1: from Rutgers road trip from Temple, road trip from West

2315
02:11:03,160 --> 02:11:07,920
Speaker 1: Virginia road trip. Actually the longest road trip was Virginia Tech.

2316
02:11:11,000 --> 02:11:13,480
Speaker 1: And I did all of those, by the way, and

2317
02:11:13,640 --> 02:11:20,320
Speaker 1: I will confess probably the most unfriendly place I went

2318
02:11:20,400 --> 02:11:23,560
Speaker 1: to was Morgantown. You'll probably laugh at that. I was

2319
02:11:23,600 --> 02:11:27,240
Speaker 1: at the infamous game where they rocked the ambulance. And

2320
02:11:27,360 --> 02:11:29,560
Speaker 1: if you say you haven't watched since the Big East Stays,

2321
02:11:29,600 --> 02:11:31,920
Speaker 1: you know exactly. The game I'm talking about was in

2322
02:11:32,040 --> 02:11:34,880
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety three. I think it was the year you

2323
02:11:35,000 --> 02:11:37,320
Speaker 1: guys played Notre Dame in the National title game. I

2324
02:11:37,480 --> 02:11:39,840
Speaker 1: think I think this is the major Harris team. I

2325
02:11:39,920 --> 02:11:43,680
Speaker 1: hope I have my dates right on that, but I

2326
02:11:43,800 --> 02:11:47,800
Speaker 1: remember that game. I'm sitting in the stands. We need

2327
02:11:48,000 --> 02:11:51,080
Speaker 1: Boston College to upset Notre Dame for Miami to sort

2328
02:11:51,080 --> 02:11:54,120
Speaker 1: of have a chance back into the title game. And

2329
02:11:54,280 --> 02:11:58,120
Speaker 1: it happens, and somehow Boston College upsets Notre Dame. They

2330
02:11:58,160 --> 02:12:01,240
Speaker 1: announce it in the stand and what does Miami do.

2331
02:12:01,360 --> 02:12:03,160
Speaker 1: We lay the damn egg and we lose to you

2332
02:12:03,280 --> 02:12:07,680
Speaker 1: guys in that game. But that was that was the

2333
02:12:07,800 --> 02:12:10,600
Speaker 1: one time. I guess I'm glad I was there when

2334
02:12:10,680 --> 02:12:13,080
Speaker 1: you guys won. And it might have been worse, but

2335
02:12:13,520 --> 02:12:17,040
Speaker 1: I wore all my Miami gear on top of regular clothes,

2336
02:12:17,640 --> 02:12:20,160
Speaker 1: so I literally the second I was leaving the stadium,

2337
02:12:20,240 --> 02:12:26,200
Speaker 1: I shed it and just played neutral arbiter the rest

2338
02:12:26,280 --> 02:12:29,960
Speaker 1: of the way. But I say that because you know,

2339
02:12:30,040 --> 02:12:34,720
Speaker 1: West Virginia is a great, proud football program. They love

2340
02:12:35,240 --> 02:12:39,200
Speaker 1: their team there, they love and they belong in a

2341
02:12:39,280 --> 02:12:44,240
Speaker 1: major conference. They should be in the same conference as Pitt.

2342
02:12:46,400 --> 02:12:51,680
Speaker 1: You know, look the Big East. I you want to

2343
02:12:51,720 --> 02:12:53,920
Speaker 1: talk about a butter I like to do what IF's.

2344
02:12:54,440 --> 02:12:56,560
Speaker 1: I'll give you a what if. What if Penn State

2345
02:12:56,640 --> 02:13:00,760
Speaker 1: doesn't go to the Big Ten and instead Penn State

2346
02:13:00,920 --> 02:13:03,160
Speaker 1: joins the Big East the same year Miami joins the

2347
02:13:03,200 --> 02:13:09,080
Speaker 1: Big East and Penn State, Pitt, West Virginia, Syracuse, and

2348
02:13:09,160 --> 02:13:13,000
Speaker 1: Boston College essentially are the North division of the Big

2349
02:13:13,080 --> 02:13:26,360
Speaker 1: East and Miami, Louisville, maybe Virginia Tech. I believe at

2350
02:13:26,400 --> 02:13:29,080
Speaker 1: that time South Carolina was up for grabs and they

2351
02:13:29,120 --> 02:13:31,200
Speaker 1: were an independent that still could have been brought in.

2352
02:13:33,080 --> 02:13:36,480
Speaker 1: And maybe we convinced Florida State. And I know in

2353
02:13:36,560 --> 02:13:38,960
Speaker 1: the eighties and the mid eighties, when Florida State and

2354
02:13:39,120 --> 02:13:42,480
Speaker 1: Miami were independent and Penn State was independent, there was

2355
02:13:42,600 --> 02:13:45,280
Speaker 1: talk of a North South conference. The Big East was

2356
02:13:45,320 --> 02:13:48,960
Speaker 1: just a basketball conference. At some point the Big East decided, well,

2357
02:13:49,040 --> 02:13:51,520
Speaker 1: maybe we don't want to lose our football school, so

2358
02:13:51,600 --> 02:13:54,240
Speaker 1: maybe we'll do this weird hybrid that they did right

2359
02:13:54,320 --> 02:13:59,240
Speaker 1: where they had these basketball schools like Georgetown Villanova, but

2360
02:13:59,360 --> 02:14:03,240
Speaker 1: then they also had the schools like Syracuse and BC

2361
02:14:03,360 --> 02:14:05,640
Speaker 1: who also wanted football, and they were worried about losing

2362
02:14:05,680 --> 02:14:08,400
Speaker 1: all of that, and so they created this hybrid. They

2363
02:14:08,720 --> 02:14:14,280
Speaker 1: convinced Miami to get in and all that stuff. A

2364
02:14:14,760 --> 02:14:23,600
Speaker 1: different scenario could have been, could have been if Penn

2365
02:14:23,640 --> 02:14:26,160
Speaker 1: State had been the other anchor there. Right then you

2366
02:14:26,240 --> 02:14:29,280
Speaker 1: had big, two big programs in Penn State and Miami,

2367
02:14:30,480 --> 02:14:33,760
Speaker 1: and then everybody else sort of could ride that wave

2368
02:14:34,080 --> 02:14:37,320
Speaker 1: and essentially be sort of on the same level. Look,

2369
02:14:37,440 --> 02:14:40,640
Speaker 1: I'm not try to disrespect West Virginia here, but you know,

2370
02:14:40,720 --> 02:14:47,320
Speaker 1: both Miami Penn State probably slightly bigger national brands than

2371
02:14:47,400 --> 02:14:50,680
Speaker 1: West Virginia, by the way, who was in the same

2372
02:14:50,760 --> 02:14:53,600
Speaker 1: conference for basketball with GW for most of the nineties.

2373
02:14:54,200 --> 02:14:55,960
Speaker 1: And I remember, you want to talk about a tough

2374
02:14:56,000 --> 02:14:59,120
Speaker 1: place to play, not only in football, playing in that

2375
02:14:59,240 --> 02:15:01,160
Speaker 1: arena and Morgan Town was a tough place to play it.

2376
02:15:01,200 --> 02:15:02,920
Speaker 1: In fact, I remember sitting in the nosebleeds and it

2377
02:15:03,000 --> 02:15:05,560
Speaker 1: was one of those where your your knee was above

2378
02:15:05,560 --> 02:15:07,880
Speaker 1: the head of the person in front of you. But

2379
02:15:08,000 --> 02:15:11,720
Speaker 1: it was a great environment, really concentrated the noise I

2380
02:15:12,320 --> 02:15:14,480
Speaker 1: think to this day, West Virginia is still a tough

2381
02:15:14,520 --> 02:15:19,200
Speaker 1: place to win on the road in that arena. But uh,

2382
02:15:19,600 --> 02:15:21,440
Speaker 1: you know, we could have had a conference that made

2383
02:15:21,480 --> 02:15:25,040
Speaker 1: some geographic sense, you know, and who knows then if

2384
02:15:25,080 --> 02:15:27,920
Speaker 1: you had the Big East ACC merger and Penn State

2385
02:15:28,600 --> 02:15:32,320
Speaker 1: and Miami in Florida State and Clemson in Virginia Tech

2386
02:15:32,400 --> 02:15:34,440
Speaker 1: and but you have that Penn State brand in there too,

2387
02:15:36,640 --> 02:15:39,120
Speaker 1: you know, we there may be it may be that

2388
02:15:39,240 --> 02:15:43,880
Speaker 1: there are that the that the that that ACC is

2389
02:15:44,000 --> 02:15:47,920
Speaker 1: truly a power conference just as up and down, just

2390
02:15:48,040 --> 02:15:50,720
Speaker 1: as just as powerful as as the Big Ten and

2391
02:15:51,400 --> 02:15:58,160
Speaker 1: and certainly comparable to the SEC. But you know, it

2392
02:15:58,280 --> 02:16:00,840
Speaker 1: is one of those where one decision by Penn State

2393
02:16:02,160 --> 02:16:08,880
Speaker 1: ended up impacting what seventy other football programs, right because

2394
02:16:08,920 --> 02:16:12,800
Speaker 1: remember they sort of broke the seal here and when

2395
02:16:12,840 --> 02:16:16,200
Speaker 1: they went then it was you know, it went down

2396
02:16:16,240 --> 02:16:20,040
Speaker 1: from there. But hey, you know what, I know, the

2397
02:16:20,080 --> 02:16:24,400
Speaker 1: Big Twelve is geographically a mess. It's a good commissioner.

2398
02:16:25,680 --> 02:16:28,480
Speaker 1: It does give West Virginia fighting chance to be to

2399
02:16:28,600 --> 02:16:30,640
Speaker 1: be relevant both in football and basketball.

2400
02:16:31,000 --> 02:16:32,720
Speaker 3: So come on back, all right.

2401
02:16:33,160 --> 02:16:36,360
Speaker 1: Next question comes from Kelly X in Aubrey, Texas. Hey,

2402
02:16:36,440 --> 02:16:38,280
Speaker 1: check I'm a transgender woman in Texas, and with the

2403
02:16:38,320 --> 02:16:41,039
Speaker 1: Republican runoff elections for Senate and Attorney General approaching, I'm

2404
02:16:41,080 --> 02:16:43,560
Speaker 1: concerned the candidates like Ken Packston and Chip Roy may

2405
02:16:43,680 --> 02:16:46,200
Speaker 1: move even further right on transgender issues to win over

2406
02:16:46,240 --> 02:16:48,840
Speaker 1: cultural war voters. Both have already made opposition to gender

2407
02:16:48,920 --> 02:16:51,440
Speaker 1: ideology a major part of their political messaging. Do you

2408
02:16:51,480 --> 02:16:53,160
Speaker 1: think one or both of them might use their current

2409
02:16:53,200 --> 02:16:56,040
Speaker 1: positions to push even more aggressive policies or rhetoric on

2410
02:16:56,160 --> 02:17:00,200
Speaker 1: transgender rights from the runoff and could that pressure other

2411
02:17:00,240 --> 02:17:03,960
Speaker 1: Republicans follow their lead? Well, CALLI I wouldn't. I don't

2412
02:17:04,000 --> 02:17:07,760
Speaker 1: think it's going to be in the runoff that that

2413
02:17:08,000 --> 02:17:11,520
Speaker 1: becomes an issue. I think that's something that is more

2414
02:17:11,680 --> 02:17:16,800
Speaker 1: likely in the general election. I've seen already some Republicans

2415
02:17:21,160 --> 02:17:25,959
Speaker 1: resurface a quote from Tallarico who called who at one time,

2416
02:17:26,000 --> 02:17:30,840
Speaker 1: I guess, referred to God as non binary, which I

2417
02:17:30,920 --> 02:17:32,920
Speaker 1: think there's a number of ways you could interpret that.

2418
02:17:33,400 --> 02:17:36,480
Speaker 1: You know, if you want to interpret it with skepticism

2419
02:17:36,640 --> 02:17:38,720
Speaker 1: and weaponization, you can do that. You want to interpret

2420
02:17:38,760 --> 02:17:42,480
Speaker 1: it as his own another way of saying, you know

2421
02:17:42,800 --> 02:17:47,959
Speaker 1: God is genderless, meaning you know, if you know to women.

2422
02:17:48,080 --> 02:17:49,879
Speaker 1: Maybe God's a woman to men. Maybe God's a man

2423
02:17:49,959 --> 02:17:53,720
Speaker 1: to those who's transgender, maybe he's transgender. You know, the

2424
02:17:53,760 --> 02:17:55,960
Speaker 1: point is that I have the beholder type of mindset,

2425
02:17:56,280 --> 02:17:58,240
Speaker 1: you know, when it comes to God, and everybody has

2426
02:17:58,280 --> 02:18:01,039
Speaker 1: their own relationship to God, and I do not want

2427
02:18:01,040 --> 02:18:06,240
Speaker 1: to preduce, presume any any any version of that is correct,

2428
02:18:06,320 --> 02:18:11,320
Speaker 1: right belief, faith is faith. On that front, I don't

2429
02:18:12,000 --> 02:18:14,440
Speaker 1: I don't suspect it to be front and center in

2430
02:18:14,520 --> 02:18:20,360
Speaker 1: the primary. I think I think it's all going to

2431
02:18:20,400 --> 02:18:24,959
Speaker 1: be about who's who's who's more sufficiently pro Trump, right,

2432
02:18:25,680 --> 02:18:28,080
Speaker 1: I think it's a general election. I think that in

2433
02:18:28,240 --> 02:18:32,160
Speaker 1: both cases you will see I think particularly if Packston's nominee,

2434
02:18:33,040 --> 02:18:36,120
Speaker 1: probably less so if Cornyn's nominee. But I know they

2435
02:18:36,160 --> 02:18:37,640
Speaker 1: want to make a big deal out of that quote,

2436
02:18:39,360 --> 02:18:40,920
Speaker 1: and I think they think that it can it can

2437
02:18:40,959 --> 02:18:44,000
Speaker 1: get misinterpreted or you know, and all of that. So

2438
02:18:46,720 --> 02:18:50,480
Speaker 1: I'm less convinced it's a salient primary issue because I

2439
02:18:50,480 --> 02:18:52,680
Speaker 1: don't think that you're you're going to try to do

2440
02:18:52,760 --> 02:18:55,440
Speaker 1: an issue that causes a wedge with the other candidate,

2441
02:18:56,320 --> 02:18:59,680
Speaker 1: And I don't suspect that that's going to be the

2442
02:18:59,760 --> 02:19:05,760
Speaker 1: case with me. Perhaps more likely between Paxton and Cornyn,

2443
02:19:05,879 --> 02:19:08,640
Speaker 1: if he's trying to make the case that Cornyn is

2444
02:19:09,280 --> 02:19:13,800
Speaker 1: not sufficiently part of MEGA. But I still think he

2445
02:19:13,840 --> 02:19:18,040
Speaker 1: would use guns as a more effective wedge issue there

2446
02:19:19,400 --> 02:19:26,320
Speaker 1: than transgender rites. But I'm not saying this to either

2447
02:19:26,400 --> 02:19:28,760
Speaker 1: reassure you about the primary make you nervous about the General.

2448
02:19:28,840 --> 02:19:32,279
Speaker 1: But I think you're more likely to see the scapegoat

2449
02:19:32,640 --> 02:19:44,920
Speaker 1: escapegoating and the attacks rise up during the general. Next

2450
02:19:45,000 --> 02:19:49,840
Speaker 1: question comes from Stephanie, and she writes, Hey, my husband

2451
02:19:49,879 --> 02:19:51,680
Speaker 1: and I both listen to your podcast, and despite our

2452
02:19:51,800 --> 02:19:54,400
Speaker 1: very different political views, we find your coverage balance and informative.

2453
02:19:55,920 --> 02:19:59,280
Speaker 1: Right on. I need you, guys to become my marketing team,

2454
02:20:00,400 --> 02:20:02,200
Speaker 1: a husband and wife marketing team. Our oldest son is

2455
02:20:02,240 --> 02:20:08,600
Speaker 1: eighteen and has declared that voting is useless. I have

2456
02:20:08,680 --> 02:20:11,760
Speaker 1: a friend who's had a similar conversation with their I

2457
02:20:11,840 --> 02:20:15,880
Speaker 1: think he's now nineteen, but it was at eighteen. You

2458
02:20:16,000 --> 02:20:18,720
Speaker 1: continue this breaks my civic minded heart. His entire awareness

2459
02:20:18,760 --> 02:20:20,640
Speaker 1: has been shaped by Trump, and he has no concept

2460
02:20:20,720 --> 02:20:22,360
Speaker 1: of what America can be or should be. He was

2461
02:20:22,400 --> 02:20:24,560
Speaker 1: only seven when Trump started campaigning for the first time,

2462
02:20:24,600 --> 02:20:27,160
Speaker 1: and he doesn't understand why things seem so outrageous to us.

2463
02:20:28,360 --> 02:20:30,920
Speaker 1: This is a conversation I've had with my own son, Stephanie,

2464
02:20:31,440 --> 02:20:34,040
Speaker 1: who is also eighteen. How do we teach my son

2465
02:20:34,120 --> 02:20:35,959
Speaker 1: in the entire generation of new voters that they matter

2466
02:20:36,040 --> 02:20:38,840
Speaker 1: and what the constitution says without turning into the adults

2467
02:20:38,920 --> 02:20:41,840
Speaker 1: from Charles Schultz's P that's wah wah wah, wah wah wah.

2468
02:20:42,240 --> 02:20:45,000
Speaker 1: Thanks for your help. And then she says, PS, I'll

2469
02:20:45,000 --> 02:20:46,879
Speaker 1: throw a gonatchi your way since I'm desperate for any

2470
02:20:46,879 --> 02:20:49,160
Speaker 1: baseball at this point. You are, And by the way,

2471
02:20:49,240 --> 02:20:53,320
Speaker 1: I'm fired up. I'm even though I'm tired. I know

2472
02:20:53,400 --> 02:20:58,960
Speaker 1: I'm going to start watching the first game of the

2473
02:20:59,680 --> 02:21:04,040
Speaker 1: World Baseball Classic, which I believe is in Tokyo, and

2474
02:21:04,160 --> 02:21:07,840
Speaker 1: I think it's Chinese type against Team Japan. I'm looking

2475
02:21:07,879 --> 02:21:12,120
Speaker 1: forward to it, which is Taiwan versus Japan. But I

2476
02:21:12,160 --> 02:21:14,280
Speaker 1: don't think I think, I don't think it starts to

2477
02:21:14,440 --> 02:21:16,960
Speaker 1: like ten pm Eastern time, you know, which for me

2478
02:21:17,080 --> 02:21:21,400
Speaker 1: might as well be one am Eastern time. Look, this

2479
02:21:21,640 --> 02:21:26,000
Speaker 1: is this is a real issue with some young voters,

2480
02:21:26,360 --> 02:21:29,760
Speaker 1: the sort of this. They're not quite nihilists, but they're

2481
02:21:29,800 --> 02:21:34,560
Speaker 1: just sort of like they haven't really seen a functional democracy.

2482
02:21:34,680 --> 02:21:37,120
Speaker 1: So if you've never seen a functional democracy, what is

2483
02:21:37,200 --> 02:21:39,600
Speaker 1: normal to you? You know, I think about this all

2484
02:21:39,640 --> 02:21:42,160
Speaker 1: the time. I mean, I'm going to guess if you

2485
02:21:42,240 --> 02:21:45,560
Speaker 1: have a son who's eighteen, it means you and I

2486
02:21:45,600 --> 02:21:48,520
Speaker 1: are about the same age. And we grew up. We

2487
02:21:48,600 --> 02:21:52,760
Speaker 1: grew up in an era where we you know, America

2488
02:21:52,959 --> 02:21:55,920
Speaker 1: was winning. We won, right, we won the Cold War.

2489
02:21:56,120 --> 02:21:58,800
Speaker 1: We were right, democracy won the argument. It wasn't that

2490
02:21:58,879 --> 02:22:03,120
Speaker 1: America won the argument. Democracy won the argument. So in

2491
02:22:03,280 --> 02:22:05,560
Speaker 1: some ways when we were coming of age at eighteen,

2492
02:22:05,680 --> 02:22:08,800
Speaker 1: we saw it as hey, we're winning. This democracy thing

2493
02:22:08,920 --> 02:22:12,120
Speaker 1: is working. In fact, let's spread it, Let's get more.

2494
02:22:12,720 --> 02:22:16,480
Speaker 1: All right, maybe China's next. Remember you know Tienaman Square, right,

2495
02:22:16,520 --> 02:22:20,560
Speaker 1: we were. I mean, I I was a first protest

2496
02:22:20,680 --> 02:22:25,560
Speaker 1: I ever sort of launched as a as a high

2497
02:22:25,560 --> 02:22:29,400
Speaker 1: school student. I was a senior. I think during Tienaman Square,

2498
02:22:29,480 --> 02:22:31,880
Speaker 1: junior senior. I must have been a senior because I

2499
02:22:31,879 --> 02:22:33,480
Speaker 1: probably would have done as a junior, but a senior,

2500
02:22:33,520 --> 02:22:35,360
Speaker 1: I was enough of a leader that I could and

2501
02:22:35,480 --> 02:22:37,400
Speaker 1: I just you know, I said, hey, let's all wear

2502
02:22:37,440 --> 02:22:42,080
Speaker 1: black arm brands and solidarity with with the protesters at

2503
02:22:42,120 --> 02:22:46,760
Speaker 1: Tienaman square. And you know, I think I got one

2504
02:22:46,800 --> 02:22:48,840
Speaker 1: hundred people to do it. That was a high school

2505
02:22:48,879 --> 02:22:50,360
Speaker 1: of three thousands. So I'm not going to sit here

2506
02:22:50,360 --> 02:22:56,640
Speaker 1: and say it was it was. I had a huge following. Well,

2507
02:22:56,680 --> 02:22:59,560
Speaker 1: we were coming of an age where where you know,

2508
02:23:01,200 --> 02:23:04,800
Speaker 1: it seemed like the whole idea of democracy, that this

2509
02:23:05,080 --> 02:23:09,320
Speaker 1: this this thing was working. You know, the twenty first

2510
02:23:09,320 --> 02:23:12,680
Speaker 1: century has been a whole different story, right, they've they've

2511
02:23:13,200 --> 02:23:16,279
Speaker 1: we've had now two generations see a lot of dysfunction

2512
02:23:16,520 --> 02:23:24,000
Speaker 1: more than function, And you know, I think it is difficult.

2513
02:23:24,120 --> 02:23:31,960
Speaker 1: I think I guess my best answer is to is

2514
02:23:32,040 --> 02:23:36,560
Speaker 1: to try to showcase where local politics worked. You know,

2515
02:23:36,600 --> 02:23:40,960
Speaker 1: there's still some local democracy that where you feel like

2516
02:23:41,080 --> 02:23:45,160
Speaker 1: you you you know, voters taken action and then you know,

2517
02:23:46,120 --> 02:23:52,520
Speaker 1: you know, we deal with it a different way. But

2518
02:23:52,720 --> 02:23:54,600
Speaker 1: I mean, when you have a you know, I almost

2519
02:23:54,640 --> 02:23:57,120
Speaker 1: want every member of Congress to read this question and

2520
02:23:57,600 --> 02:24:02,000
Speaker 1: hear this question that you've written, because Congress being ineffective. Right,

2521
02:24:02,040 --> 02:24:06,680
Speaker 1: everything that your son has learned about the Constitution, about

2522
02:24:07,160 --> 02:24:10,720
Speaker 1: checks and balances, about the three branches of government haven't

2523
02:24:10,760 --> 02:24:14,200
Speaker 1: functioned the way it's taught. And it's not because we're

2524
02:24:14,200 --> 02:24:19,640
Speaker 1: teaching it. Incorrectly. It's because it doesn't function correctly, and

2525
02:24:19,920 --> 02:24:22,840
Speaker 1: you know, I resist wanting to teach it. I teach

2526
02:24:22,879 --> 02:24:25,600
Speaker 1: a classic college student called how Washington Works, and I

2527
02:24:25,840 --> 02:24:28,120
Speaker 1: think it's I've never had a more challenging time trying

2528
02:24:28,160 --> 02:24:30,080
Speaker 1: to explain how Washington works this year, because I'm like,

2529
02:24:30,320 --> 02:24:34,200
Speaker 1: we're the it's changing dramatically and right now there's only

2530
02:24:34,400 --> 02:24:40,360
Speaker 1: the Washington works with one one way currency and specifically

2531
02:24:40,400 --> 02:24:47,760
Speaker 1: green currency, and that is what how Washington rolls these days.

2532
02:24:47,879 --> 02:24:52,040
Speaker 1: So you know, this is this is why we need

2533
02:24:52,120 --> 02:24:55,360
Speaker 1: some better leaders. But more importantly, this is why we

2534
02:24:55,760 --> 02:25:00,760
Speaker 1: need to do some structural changes to the democracy, essentially

2535
02:25:00,879 --> 02:25:05,440
Speaker 1: to convince people it still works. Not having to register

2536
02:25:05,520 --> 02:25:07,760
Speaker 1: by party but still being able to vote right. Getting

2537
02:25:07,840 --> 02:25:11,119
Speaker 1: rid of partisan primaries, I think would be a huge way.

2538
02:25:11,840 --> 02:25:16,720
Speaker 1: You've got to if you want people to be good citizens,

2539
02:25:16,760 --> 02:25:21,040
Speaker 1: they've got to know that their citizenship matters. And I

2540
02:25:21,120 --> 02:25:25,280
Speaker 1: think we've not asked much of our citizenry. You know

2541
02:25:26,000 --> 02:25:28,480
Speaker 1: what if we had a national service program where everybody

2542
02:25:28,560 --> 02:25:30,640
Speaker 1: had to serve two years doing something for the country,

2543
02:25:30,760 --> 02:25:35,120
Speaker 1: doing something for this, for this, for for the you know,

2544
02:25:35,160 --> 02:25:38,040
Speaker 1: whether that's serve in the military, whether that's serve in

2545
02:25:38,120 --> 02:25:45,440
Speaker 1: the Peace Corps, whether that's serve in a local a

2546
02:25:45,560 --> 02:25:50,600
Speaker 1: local senior facility. I think there's a variety of ways

2547
02:25:50,640 --> 02:25:56,240
Speaker 1: you could create mandatory national service that you know helped.

2548
02:25:56,959 --> 02:25:59,440
Speaker 1: I think that would you know, first of all, it

2549
02:25:59,720 --> 02:26:03,120
Speaker 1: would be an opportunity for people from different backgrounds to

2550
02:26:03,200 --> 02:26:06,520
Speaker 1: serve together. Right, we know how well that is that

2551
02:26:06,680 --> 02:26:09,440
Speaker 1: that works in the military. Imagine if you had that

2552
02:26:10,240 --> 02:26:18,560
Speaker 1: in all sorts of ways, and it might sort of

2553
02:26:19,720 --> 02:26:28,120
Speaker 1: restore restore the belief that your vote counts or that

2554
02:26:28,200 --> 02:26:31,360
Speaker 1: your vote matters. Can tell you this if you live

2555
02:26:31,400 --> 02:26:34,279
Speaker 1: in a North Carolina State Senate district with Phil Berger

2556
02:26:34,320 --> 02:26:36,480
Speaker 1: and then who's down two votes with all the votes

2557
02:26:36,920 --> 02:26:39,600
Speaker 1: counted now and now they're waiting for provisionals. There are

2558
02:26:39,640 --> 02:26:43,800
Speaker 1: plenty of campaigns that prove every vote counts. But the

2559
02:26:43,920 --> 02:26:45,840
Speaker 1: question I think your son is asking, is your vote

2560
02:26:45,840 --> 02:26:49,080
Speaker 1: even worth it? And I think right now, when we

2561
02:26:49,240 --> 02:26:52,200
Speaker 1: have such weak checks and balances in the system that

2562
02:26:52,280 --> 02:26:55,720
Speaker 1: he's taught that we live in isn't really functioning the

2563
02:26:55,800 --> 02:26:59,520
Speaker 1: way he was taught. It's hard not it. It's easy

2564
02:26:59,560 --> 02:27:01,920
Speaker 1: to understand, and why he's this, why he's become this

2565
02:27:02,000 --> 02:27:05,880
Speaker 1: cynical about it. My son's quite cynical as well. I

2566
02:27:05,959 --> 02:27:08,240
Speaker 1: think there's a I just think there's a whole generation

2567
02:27:09,280 --> 02:27:14,720
Speaker 1: that that sees it this way. That said, my son

2568
02:27:14,800 --> 02:27:18,560
Speaker 1: does gravitate to anybody young who's trying to run for office.

2569
02:27:18,640 --> 02:27:22,280
Speaker 1: He's always whoever the younger person is, he gravitates to

2570
02:27:22,400 --> 02:27:27,040
Speaker 1: that person. This was true in twenty twenty. He was

2571
02:27:27,240 --> 02:27:33,680
Speaker 1: really interested and intrigued by Pete and and that, and

2572
02:27:33,760 --> 02:27:37,120
Speaker 1: it was simply because he was the youngest candidate. Maybe

2573
02:27:37,920 --> 02:27:41,320
Speaker 1: a young leader, you know, whether whether you know, might

2574
02:27:41,400 --> 02:27:44,360
Speaker 1: have been a Charlie kirk or or James tola Rico,

2575
02:27:45,160 --> 02:27:52,000
Speaker 1: or it could be somebody else. You know, maybe it's

2576
02:27:52,000 --> 02:27:54,680
Speaker 1: a ants if he's still considered young once he had

2577
02:27:54,760 --> 02:28:00,280
Speaker 1: forty you know, maybe there's some some some faith there,

2578
02:28:00,520 --> 02:28:03,600
Speaker 1: or certainly a new outside young leader. I might do it,

2579
02:28:03,720 --> 02:28:09,800
Speaker 1: but you know, until the government itself functions normal semi

2580
02:28:09,920 --> 02:28:14,440
Speaker 1: normally it is it is, it's probably hard to make

2581
02:28:14,480 --> 02:28:18,880
Speaker 1: the case. I would be remiss, you know, I've wrapped

2582
02:28:18,920 --> 02:28:21,720
Speaker 1: up question for that. I'd be remiss if I didn't acknowledge,

2583
02:28:21,760 --> 02:28:26,240
Speaker 1: particularly if you're listening to this on March fifth, right,

2584
02:28:26,400 --> 02:28:29,240
Speaker 1: I drop on Thursdays. Thursday is March fifth. Some of

2585
02:28:29,320 --> 02:28:31,080
Speaker 1: you might be listening on the sixth, seventh, or eighth.

2586
02:28:32,000 --> 02:28:35,360
Speaker 1: But if you're listening on March fifth, and I'm mister

2587
02:28:35,520 --> 02:28:37,760
Speaker 1: three oh five, as most of you know me and Pitbull,

2588
02:28:37,800 --> 02:28:42,199
Speaker 1: we're mister three oh five. I'm a Miami native. I'm

2589
02:28:42,320 --> 02:28:45,080
Speaker 1: proud of that three oh five area code. But I'm

2590
02:28:45,120 --> 02:28:49,960
Speaker 1: going to confess something I had never knew that we

2591
02:28:50,160 --> 02:28:54,080
Speaker 1: Miamians had an official day on the calendar that we celebrated.

2592
02:28:54,600 --> 02:28:59,560
Speaker 1: Apparently three oh five, as in March fifth, is now

2593
02:29:00,160 --> 02:29:06,680
Speaker 1: three h five Day or Miami Day. I am. Apparently

2594
02:29:06,760 --> 02:29:12,920
Speaker 1: this became a thing in twenty fourteen. According to our

2595
02:29:12,959 --> 02:29:17,760
Speaker 1: friends at the internet. It started as a hashtag three

2596
02:29:17,879 --> 02:29:20,000
Speaker 1: zho five day, sort of a fun thing and involved

2597
02:29:20,040 --> 02:29:25,640
Speaker 1: into a community wide celebration. So it was the original.

2598
02:29:25,959 --> 02:29:29,440
Speaker 1: The origin of this a Miami publicist. It started in

2599
02:29:29,480 --> 02:29:34,640
Speaker 1: twenty twelve, a Miami publicist, Genuine Molina, launched a social

2600
02:29:34,680 --> 02:29:37,560
Speaker 1: media campaign called three h five Capacito, and the concept

2601
02:29:37,720 --> 02:29:41,600
Speaker 1: is that, inspired by English tea time, Molina proposed that

2602
02:29:41,680 --> 02:29:44,960
Speaker 1: three oh five pm, matching Miami's iconic area coach, should

2603
02:29:44,959 --> 02:29:47,560
Speaker 1: be the city's official daily coffee break capas Ethough time,

2604
02:29:48,640 --> 02:29:52,160
Speaker 1: and it was a way to unify Miami's diverse spanglish

2605
02:29:52,240 --> 02:29:58,560
Speaker 1: culture around the Ventanita tradition coffee window. So the idea

2606
02:29:58,640 --> 02:30:01,360
Speaker 1: went viral so quickly that by two twenty thirteen, then

2607
02:30:01,720 --> 02:30:06,520
Speaker 1: Mayor Tomas Regulado officially proclaimed three oh five PM as

2608
02:30:06,640 --> 02:30:12,240
Speaker 1: Miami's official cafecito time. So it started as a time,

2609
02:30:12,360 --> 02:30:14,879
Speaker 1: and then it went to a day, and the first

2610
02:30:14,920 --> 02:30:18,200
Speaker 1: three oh five Day was celebrated on March fifth, twenty fourteen,

2611
02:30:18,600 --> 02:30:22,800
Speaker 1: three oh five. So it's now turned into a community

2612
02:30:22,800 --> 02:30:25,080
Speaker 1: wide celebrations of all things three oh five, not just

2613
02:30:25,160 --> 02:30:29,640
Speaker 1: Cuban coffee, but Miami's music, Miami Base and freestyle art,

2614
02:30:29,840 --> 02:30:34,000
Speaker 1: the Windwood Murals, local small businesses. There's now three oh

2615
02:30:34,120 --> 02:30:37,600
Speaker 1: five block parties. So, man, I feel like a moron.

2616
02:30:37,879 --> 02:30:41,240
Speaker 1: I missed this. I am sorry, I missed this. What happens?

2617
02:30:41,280 --> 02:30:46,080
Speaker 1: You don't live in Miami anymore? And you know I'm

2618
02:30:46,160 --> 02:30:49,280
Speaker 1: gonna bug my daughter all day on three oh five

2619
02:30:49,520 --> 02:30:53,680
Speaker 1: to say hey, is this the Have you guys ever

2620
02:30:53,760 --> 02:30:56,040
Speaker 1: celebrated three oh five day and three oh five? And

2621
02:30:56,120 --> 02:30:58,480
Speaker 1: I say this because I am a member of my

2622
02:30:58,680 --> 02:31:02,360
Speaker 1: family who was born on May the fourth. Be with

2623
02:31:02,520 --> 02:31:06,080
Speaker 1: you and I will just say, this member of my

2624
02:31:06,240 --> 02:31:09,560
Speaker 1: family is not thrilled that they have to share their

2625
02:31:09,640 --> 02:31:13,000
Speaker 1: birthday with Star Wars Day. So I am, I am,

2626
02:31:13,480 --> 02:31:17,880
Speaker 1: I am. I will see how much I bug some

2627
02:31:17,959 --> 02:31:19,960
Speaker 1: of my relatives about this who happened to live in

2628
02:31:20,040 --> 02:31:23,760
Speaker 1: Miami on three h five day? But I am. I

2629
02:31:23,840 --> 02:31:27,920
Speaker 1: feel like a bad Miami native for not knowing and

2630
02:31:28,080 --> 02:31:32,280
Speaker 1: not fully embracing. And I'll just you know, I'm first

2631
02:31:32,320 --> 02:31:34,720
Speaker 1: of all, I love three or five capacito time. For me,

2632
02:31:35,400 --> 02:31:39,720
Speaker 1: it is always capuasido time. I constantly am drinking coffee,

2633
02:31:39,840 --> 02:31:43,879
Speaker 1: So it's a if, the if, if, if the hour

2634
02:31:44,120 --> 02:31:46,760
Speaker 1: of the day ends in a p M or an am,

2635
02:31:46,920 --> 02:31:50,560
Speaker 1: I think it's coffee time. But regardless, I will no

2636
02:31:50,720 --> 02:31:55,160
Speaker 1: longer ever looked at March fifth the same ever again,

2637
02:31:55,600 --> 02:31:58,400
Speaker 1: because I am not turning in my Miami credentials for

2638
02:31:58,520 --> 02:32:01,960
Speaker 1: blowing this. Instead, I'm hopping on this bandwagon and I

2639
02:32:02,280 --> 02:32:06,720
Speaker 1: am embracing. So happy three oh five day. Let's go go.

2640
02:32:06,959 --> 02:32:09,960
Speaker 1: Let's go find go, find a catasito somewhere where you

2641
02:32:10,080 --> 02:32:12,440
Speaker 1: live to celebrate three oh five day, and with that,

2642
02:32:14,480 --> 02:32:16,560
Speaker 1: enjoy your weekend. I'll see in about seventy two hours