Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2: Israel is building security ties with the breakaway state of
Speaker 2: Somaliland and could plan a red sea base to target
Speaker 2: Houti rebels.
Speaker 3: Well, there is no limit as what areas that we
Speaker 3: can work with.
Speaker 1: We can work.
Speaker 4: Together, but the details of a specific area will come
Speaker 4: after the President visit TUESDA.
Speaker 2: Israel is the only UN member to recognize Somaliland's independence
Speaker 2: and could use that relationship to target Iran's allies on
Speaker 2: the Arabian Peninsula.
Speaker 3: Our friendship is seminole and historic.
Speaker 5: I think this would be a great opportunity for expanding
Speaker 5: our partnership.
Speaker 2: On today's podcast, we'll look at Israel's relationship with Somaliland,
Speaker 2: what a base in the region could look like, and
Speaker 2: the wider impact it could have on the Horn of Africa.
Speaker 2: Jonnifer's Abasaja and this is the Next Africa podcast, bringing
Speaker 2: you one story each week from the continent, driving the
Speaker 2: future of global growth with the context only Bloomberg can provide.
Speaker 2: Joining us today is our East Africa reporter Simon Marx
Speaker 2: and also Bloomberg's Israel Bureau chief Ethan Bronner. Thank you
Speaker 2: both so much for joining us. To unpack the story
Speaker 2: that you worked on.
Speaker 1: Simon. Let's just start with you. Can you give us
Speaker 1: a bit of context.
Speaker 2: About Somaliland for people who don't know much about it
Speaker 2: and how the breakaway state came about.
Speaker 5: So, Somaliland has had decades long history fighting for independence.
Speaker 5: It was a British protectorate in the nineteenth century right
Speaker 5: up to nineteen sixty when it declared independence for the
Speaker 5: first time, but after that the Somali federal government never
Speaker 5: really endorsed the move and it's had a struggle with Mogadishu,
Speaker 5: the capital of Somalia, to truly gain in the deence,
Speaker 5: and that tension resulted in a civil war in the eighties,
Speaker 5: a very bloody campaign which flattened Somaliland's capital, Hargeisa in
Speaker 5: nineteen ninety one, after which it once again declared independence,
Speaker 5: and for the next thirty years or so it has
Speaker 5: been in a sort of tussle with Somalia to actually
Speaker 5: endorse that it is a self governing region. It does
Speaker 5: effectively have independence, but it's never really been recognized and
Speaker 5: Somalilanders really have a lot of contempt for Somalia and
Speaker 5: the government in Mogadishu for the bombing campaign and the
Speaker 5: bloody atrocities it led against them in the eighties and nineties.
Speaker 2: Which made Prime Minister Netanyahu's decision to recognize Somaliland last
Speaker 2: year that big of a deal. Can you speak to
Speaker 2: the reaction and the impact from Somalilanders around that.
Speaker 3: Yes.
Speaker 5: So, obviously Israel's recognition of Somali Land, it's the first
Speaker 5: country to have done it. It was a humongous deal
Speaker 5: for Somali Landers. There were celebrations in the streets. People
Speaker 5: were lining the capitol holding Israeli flags and it was
Speaker 5: an amazing scene. You know, Somali Land is a Muslim country,
Speaker 5: so it really brought together both Muslims and Jews who
Speaker 5: were there at the time. And for Somaliland, I think
Speaker 5: they were just happy that they got the first country
Speaker 5: to recognize them and saw this as an opportunity for
Speaker 5: other countries then to join the bandwagon, which I must
Speaker 5: say has not been an easy feat. There has been
Speaker 5: no other country come on board since Israel recognized it,
Speaker 5: and that has led to some questions about, you know,
Speaker 5: whether Israel was the best country to recognize it first,
Speaker 5: considering everything that's going on in the Middle East at
Speaker 5: the moment.
Speaker 2: And we saw a strong reaction from other international leaders
Speaker 2: around that. Ethan, just bring you in from the Israeli side.
Speaker 2: Can you speak to the strategic decision behind Israel recognizing Somaliland?
Speaker 1: Why is it such a priority?
Speaker 4: The main issue for Israel is that it's an opportunity
Speaker 4: for them to get closer to the Juti militias in Yemen.
Speaker 4: The Jutis have been a really rough enemy to Israel
Speaker 4: in recent years. It turns out that Israel wasn't really
Speaker 4: watching them all that closely until the last couple of
Speaker 4: years when ballistic missiles were flying into Israel from the Yemen.
Speaker 4: And they've now taken the view that you're taking on
Speaker 4: the Houtis in Yemen has a level of significance not
Speaker 4: so different from Hamas in Gaza, from the Hezballah in Lebanon,
Speaker 4: and even Iran itself. And this is part of a
Speaker 4: shift in Israeli's security doctrine that occurred after October seventh,
Speaker 4: twenty twenty three, when Hamas swarmed into Israel and killed
Speaker 4: twelve hundred people and took two hundred fifty hostage. A
Speaker 4: sense of vulnerability has spread throughout Israeli society. Of the
Speaker 4: security establishment, a sense that the way they'd been assessing
Speaker 4: their enemies in the past was no longer enough.
Speaker 3: It is no longer enough.
Speaker 4: To know, well, they're out there, but they're not coming
Speaker 4: at us right now. If they have an ideology that
Speaker 4: opposes us, and they have arms to do so, we
Speaker 4: are going to go after them in an aggressive fashion, proactively.
Speaker 3: And that's I think what's going on here.
Speaker 2: Is that what we've heard too, Ethan, from NETANYAHUO and
Speaker 2: across the board within Israeli politicians, they're supporting this move.
Speaker 3: I've seen no opposition to it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it fits very well with Israel's general
Speaker 4: outlook that this is the kind of thing it needs
Speaker 4: to be doing.
Speaker 2: Yes, and stick with us, guys. When we come back,
Speaker 2: we'll talk more about what the security relationship between Samullilan
Speaker 2: and Israel could look like.
Speaker 1: We'll be right back. Welcome back. Today.
Speaker 2: We're looking at possible plans for an Israeli military base
Speaker 2: in Somaliland. Simon Marx and Ethan Browner are still with
Speaker 2: me now. So Simon, what do we know about how
Speaker 2: advanced some of these plans could be for a potential
Speaker 2: military base, not just that where it could potentially be
Speaker 2: and what it could potentially look like.
Speaker 5: Yeah, Well, what's clear is that way before Israel granted
Speaker 5: its recognition of Somaliland, there have been Israeli officials, both
Speaker 5: government and intelligence visiting the breakaway state all throughout twenty
Speaker 5: twenty five with the attempt to scout the country look
Speaker 5: for potential locations for conducting operations against the houties. Now
Speaker 5: it's a very sensitive issue. Obviously, creating a physical base
Speaker 5: with an Israeli flag on it would be a huge
Speaker 5: target for many other operators, even the huties themselves Al
Speaker 5: Shabab and Somalia. And so there are views out there
Speaker 5: among the officials we talked to that they could maybe
Speaker 5: do something more covert in nature perhaps, but also maybe
Speaker 5: use some of the infrastructure in Berbera, which is a
Speaker 5: coastal city on Somaliland's coast where the United Arab Emirates
Speaker 5: have a large amount of infrastructure, including a port and
Speaker 5: a very long airstrip which could be used by Israel.
Speaker 5: So there's a lot of options on the table, I
Speaker 5: would say, but what is clear is they are definitely
Speaker 5: looking at the country very closely. There's also a more
Speaker 5: remote location further north, a mountainous area north of Berbera
Speaker 5: that could be used that has been used by Russia
Speaker 5: in the past to conduct operations. So it'll be very
Speaker 5: interesting to see what the Somali Land government does from
Speaker 5: here and allows Israel to actually do. Considering the regional
Speaker 5: opposition to this move.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and surely there is increased opposition and a bit
Speaker 2: of concern about what this means. Then, more broadly for
Speaker 2: other countries in the region. How much have we heard,
Speaker 2: potentially some opposition from other leaders about this close relationship
Speaker 2: that we're seeing between Somaliland and Israel. Simon, I want
Speaker 2: to start with you, and then Ethan, I'd be curious
Speaker 2: to talk to you after well.
Speaker 5: In the aftermath of Israel recognizing Somaliland, a whole host
Speaker 5: of countries more than twenty brought out statements against it
Speaker 5: and supporting Somali's federal sovereignty over Somaliland. Those countries many
Speaker 5: Arab League members. Egypt came out, Saudi Arabia came out
Speaker 5: very strongly as well, and it even caused a huge
Speaker 5: rift between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia over
Speaker 5: the issue. Following the move, Somalia also canceled a lot
Speaker 5: of the UAE's projects in Somaliland due to its involvement
Speaker 5: in allowing a dissident leader in Yemen escape through Somaliland.
Speaker 5: So this whole issue really sort of put the cat
Speaker 5: among the pigeons regionally, and I think helplessly Israel needs
Speaker 5: to step very carefully, I guess, in how it approaches
Speaker 5: this issue, considering its vulnerability geographically.
Speaker 1: Ethan, what would you say, I.
Speaker 3: Think Simon summarized it well.
Speaker 4: I think that while it is a project and Israel
Speaker 4: is focused on, Simon a wonderful job reporting on it
Speaker 4: when he went there, I wouldn't say it's at the
Speaker 4: top of the list of what this country is up
Speaker 4: to right this minute. Right it's right in the middle
Speaker 4: of a war with a rat, it's working on a
Speaker 4: war with Hisbela in Lebanon, and so this other thing
Speaker 4: matters to them. But so far, the Houties, by the way,
Speaker 4: have essentially stayed out of the current conflict, even though
Speaker 4: they were involved in the post Gaza conflict quite intensely.
Speaker 4: You know, I think they're still trying to take their
Speaker 4: measure of the Hooti situation. And it is also important,
Speaker 4: as Simon notes, that there is a relationship there with
Speaker 4: the UAE. The Israeli UAE relationship has grown very tight,
Speaker 4: and in this current war with Iran, the UAE has
Speaker 4: been notable for complaining about Iran and its response to
Speaker 4: the attacks, and not complaining about what the United States
Speaker 4: and Israel have been doing in Iran. And so I
Speaker 4: think that we'll have to see where this goes. But
Speaker 4: you know, it is also important to remember that the
Speaker 4: houtis their slogan is death to Israel, had a curse
Speaker 4: upon the Jews.
Speaker 3: They really do want.
Speaker 4: To do something bad to Israel, and Israel has decided
Speaker 4: after October seventh it can't let such things just lie.
Speaker 2: Is Israel not concerned though about the potential wedge that
Speaker 2: this could draw between other Middle Eastern countries this, I
Speaker 2: think it.
Speaker 4: Is concerned, and that's probably why it hasn't acted yet.
Speaker 4: But you know, it's trying to figure out what to do.
Speaker 4: I mean in terms of setting up a base or
Speaker 4: anything like that. Yes, it is concerned. But what has
Speaker 4: happened since October seventh is in the battle between diplomacy
Speaker 4: and military based security. Military based security is winning out
Speaker 4: almost every time.
Speaker 2: Here simon, where do things go next? What is it
Speaker 2: that we should be watching out for. Could we see
Speaker 2: other nations like Israel recognizing Somaliland as well in the
Speaker 2: independent state, potentially gaining even more independence.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think the Somali Land government is putting a
Speaker 5: lot of attention into trying to get that second recognition.
Speaker 5: There are reports that they've engaged a lot with countries
Speaker 5: like Ethiopia, other African nations like Namibia, for example. On
Speaker 5: the list, They've looked at India, but so far no
Speaker 5: one's really jumped the gun there and done it. There's
Speaker 5: also a huge amount of focus on the US. Somaliland
Speaker 5: have offered the US a base, also access to critical minerals,
Speaker 5: which are largely unexplored in the country but widely believed
Speaker 5: to exist in large quantities. President Trump has also said
Speaker 5: that this is an issue he is personally looked looking at.
Speaker 5: So obviously, if the US came in, that would really
Speaker 5: completely change the whole landscape on this What.
Speaker 1: Does that mean then for Somalia.
Speaker 5: Well, Somalia are looking at what's happening and taking their
Speaker 5: own measures. They've become increasingly close with Turkey, which has
Speaker 5: a pretty large military presence in the country. They've brought
Speaker 5: in fighter jets, there's soldiers, there's training operations from the Turks,
Speaker 5: and the Saudis have also forged a military and security
Speaker 5: pact with Somalia. That's quite interesting because the Saudis, while
Speaker 5: they endorse Somalia's sovereignty, they've done very little really financially
Speaker 5: or militarily speaking, and that's begun to change in recent months.
Speaker 5: So the instability within Somalia itself, with all its breakaway states, etc.
Speaker 5: Has it's at fever pitch right now.
Speaker 1: Ethan maybe final to you.
Speaker 2: Of course, as you mentioned, Israel has quite a lot
Speaker 2: on its plate right now. But what is it that
Speaker 2: you're watching for As far as where this relationship goes next, I.
Speaker 3: Think that the key point is would the US join?
Speaker 4: That seems to me the next big issue, And there
Speaker 4: was some reason here to believe that the US was
Speaker 4: interested and willing to do so, both for the reasons
Speaker 4: of joining in this coalition and so on and against
Speaker 4: the Houtis, and also.
Speaker 3: Of course for these rare minerals.
Speaker 4: That are quite important in the industries of the future
Speaker 4: and AI and that kind of thing. So I think
Speaker 4: that's the next thing to watch, in addition to what
Speaker 4: exactly they do in terms of a base. As I
Speaker 4: said earlier, I doubt it's going to happen imminently. I
Speaker 4: think it's still in a kind of planning talk stage.
Speaker 2: Ethan Browner and Simon Marx thanks guys so much for
Speaker 2: joining us this week on the podcast, and you can
Speaker 2: read both of their latest reporting on Bloomberg platforms.
Speaker 1: Now will put a link to that in the show.
Speaker 4: Note.
Speaker 2: Here's some of the other stories we've been following across
Speaker 2: the region this week. How tang the South African province
Speaker 2: that's home to Johannesburg and the capital, Pretoria, is struggling
Speaker 2: to grow and shift from manufacturing and mining to a
Speaker 2: services hub, and it's deepening inequality. That's according to the
Speaker 2: provincial government, which said urgent action is needed to arrest
Speaker 2: the decline. And the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda
Speaker 2: agreed to quote de escalate tensions and implement a peace
Speaker 2: agreement reached with the help of US President Donald Trump
Speaker 2: last year. Officials from both nations agreed on concrete steps
Speaker 2: towards lasting peace in the war toward Eastern Congo, according
Speaker 2: to a statement by the Department of State, and you
Speaker 2: can follow these stories across Bloomberg, including the Next African Newsletter.
Speaker 2: Will put a link to that in the show notes.
Speaker 2: This program was produced by Adrian Brod Bradley and tiwa Adebayo.
Speaker 2: Don't forget to follow and review the show wherever you
Speaker 2: usually get your podcasts, But for now I'm Jennifer's Abasaja.
Speaker 1: Thanks as always for listening.