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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: Israel is building security ties with the breakaway state of

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Speaker 2: Somaliland and could plan a red sea base to target

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Speaker 2: Houti rebels.

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Speaker 3: Well, there is no limit as what areas that we

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Speaker 3: can work with.

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Speaker 1: We can work.

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Speaker 4: Together, but the details of a specific area will come

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Speaker 4: after the President visit TUESDA.

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Speaker 2: Israel is the only UN member to recognize Somaliland's independence

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Speaker 2: and could use that relationship to target Iran's allies on

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Speaker 2: the Arabian Peninsula.

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Speaker 3: Our friendship is seminole and historic.

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Speaker 5: I think this would be a great opportunity for expanding

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Speaker 5: our partnership.

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Speaker 2: On today's podcast, we'll look at Israel's relationship with Somaliland,

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Speaker 2: what a base in the region could look like, and

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Speaker 2: the wider impact it could have on the Horn of Africa.

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Speaker 2: Jonnifer's Abasaja and this is the Next Africa podcast, bringing

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Speaker 2: you one story each week from the continent, driving the

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Speaker 2: future of global growth with the context only Bloomberg can provide.

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Speaker 2: Joining us today is our East Africa reporter Simon Marx

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Speaker 2: and also Bloomberg's Israel Bureau chief Ethan Bronner. Thank you

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Speaker 2: both so much for joining us. To unpack the story

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Speaker 2: that you worked on.

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Speaker 1: Simon. Let's just start with you. Can you give us

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Speaker 1: a bit of context.

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Speaker 2: About Somaliland for people who don't know much about it

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Speaker 2: and how the breakaway state came about.

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Speaker 5: So, Somaliland has had decades long history fighting for independence.

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Speaker 5: It was a British protectorate in the nineteenth century right

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Speaker 5: up to nineteen sixty when it declared independence for the

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Speaker 5: first time, but after that the Somali federal government never

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Speaker 5: really endorsed the move and it's had a struggle with Mogadishu,

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Speaker 5: the capital of Somalia, to truly gain in the deence,

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Speaker 5: and that tension resulted in a civil war in the eighties,

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Speaker 5: a very bloody campaign which flattened Somaliland's capital, Hargeisa in

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Speaker 5: nineteen ninety one, after which it once again declared independence,

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Speaker 5: and for the next thirty years or so it has

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Speaker 5: been in a sort of tussle with Somalia to actually

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Speaker 5: endorse that it is a self governing region. It does

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Speaker 5: effectively have independence, but it's never really been recognized and

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Speaker 5: Somalilanders really have a lot of contempt for Somalia and

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Speaker 5: the government in Mogadishu for the bombing campaign and the

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Speaker 5: bloody atrocities it led against them in the eighties and nineties.

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Speaker 2: Which made Prime Minister Netanyahu's decision to recognize Somaliland last

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Speaker 2: year that big of a deal. Can you speak to

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Speaker 2: the reaction and the impact from Somalilanders around that.

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Speaker 3: Yes.

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Speaker 5: So, obviously Israel's recognition of Somali Land, it's the first

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Speaker 5: country to have done it. It was a humongous deal

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Speaker 5: for Somali Landers. There were celebrations in the streets. People

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Speaker 5: were lining the capitol holding Israeli flags and it was

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Speaker 5: an amazing scene. You know, Somali Land is a Muslim country,

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Speaker 5: so it really brought together both Muslims and Jews who

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Speaker 5: were there at the time. And for Somaliland, I think

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Speaker 5: they were just happy that they got the first country

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Speaker 5: to recognize them and saw this as an opportunity for

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Speaker 5: other countries then to join the bandwagon, which I must

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Speaker 5: say has not been an easy feat. There has been

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Speaker 5: no other country come on board since Israel recognized it,

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Speaker 5: and that has led to some questions about, you know,

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Speaker 5: whether Israel was the best country to recognize it first,

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Speaker 5: considering everything that's going on in the Middle East at

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Speaker 5: the moment.

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Speaker 2: And we saw a strong reaction from other international leaders

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Speaker 2: around that. Ethan, just bring you in from the Israeli side.

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Speaker 2: Can you speak to the strategic decision behind Israel recognizing Somaliland?

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Speaker 1: Why is it such a priority?

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Speaker 4: The main issue for Israel is that it's an opportunity

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Speaker 4: for them to get closer to the Juti militias in Yemen.

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Speaker 4: The Jutis have been a really rough enemy to Israel

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Speaker 4: in recent years. It turns out that Israel wasn't really

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Speaker 4: watching them all that closely until the last couple of

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Speaker 4: years when ballistic missiles were flying into Israel from the Yemen.

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Speaker 4: And they've now taken the view that you're taking on

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Speaker 4: the Houtis in Yemen has a level of significance not

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Speaker 4: so different from Hamas in Gaza, from the Hezballah in Lebanon,

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Speaker 4: and even Iran itself. And this is part of a

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Speaker 4: shift in Israeli's security doctrine that occurred after October seventh,

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty three, when Hamas swarmed into Israel and killed

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Speaker 4: twelve hundred people and took two hundred fifty hostage. A

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Speaker 4: sense of vulnerability has spread throughout Israeli society. Of the

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Speaker 4: security establishment, a sense that the way they'd been assessing

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Speaker 4: their enemies in the past was no longer enough.

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Speaker 3: It is no longer enough.

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Speaker 4: To know, well, they're out there, but they're not coming

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Speaker 4: at us right now. If they have an ideology that

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Speaker 4: opposes us, and they have arms to do so, we

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Speaker 4: are going to go after them in an aggressive fashion, proactively.

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Speaker 3: And that's I think what's going on here.

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Speaker 2: Is that what we've heard too, Ethan, from NETANYAHUO and

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Speaker 2: across the board within Israeli politicians, they're supporting this move.

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Speaker 3: I've seen no opposition to it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it fits very well with Israel's general

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Speaker 4: outlook that this is the kind of thing it needs

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Speaker 4: to be doing.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and stick with us, guys. When we come back,

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Speaker 2: we'll talk more about what the security relationship between Samullilan

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Speaker 2: and Israel could look like.

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Speaker 1: We'll be right back. Welcome back. Today.

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Speaker 2: We're looking at possible plans for an Israeli military base

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Speaker 2: in Somaliland. Simon Marx and Ethan Browner are still with

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Speaker 2: me now. So Simon, what do we know about how

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Speaker 2: advanced some of these plans could be for a potential

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Speaker 2: military base, not just that where it could potentially be

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Speaker 2: and what it could potentially look like.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Well, what's clear is that way before Israel granted

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Speaker 5: its recognition of Somaliland, there have been Israeli officials, both

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Speaker 5: government and intelligence visiting the breakaway state all throughout twenty

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Speaker 5: twenty five with the attempt to scout the country look

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Speaker 5: for potential locations for conducting operations against the houties. Now

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Speaker 5: it's a very sensitive issue. Obviously, creating a physical base

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Speaker 5: with an Israeli flag on it would be a huge

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Speaker 5: target for many other operators, even the huties themselves Al

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Speaker 5: Shabab and Somalia. And so there are views out there

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Speaker 5: among the officials we talked to that they could maybe

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Speaker 5: do something more covert in nature perhaps, but also maybe

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Speaker 5: use some of the infrastructure in Berbera, which is a

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Speaker 5: coastal city on Somaliland's coast where the United Arab Emirates

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Speaker 5: have a large amount of infrastructure, including a port and

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Speaker 5: a very long airstrip which could be used by Israel.

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Speaker 5: So there's a lot of options on the table, I

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Speaker 5: would say, but what is clear is they are definitely

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Speaker 5: looking at the country very closely. There's also a more

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Speaker 5: remote location further north, a mountainous area north of Berbera

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Speaker 5: that could be used that has been used by Russia

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Speaker 5: in the past to conduct operations. So it'll be very

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Speaker 5: interesting to see what the Somali Land government does from

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Speaker 5: here and allows Israel to actually do. Considering the regional

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Speaker 5: opposition to this move.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and surely there is increased opposition and a bit

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Speaker 2: of concern about what this means. Then, more broadly for

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Speaker 2: other countries in the region. How much have we heard,

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Speaker 2: potentially some opposition from other leaders about this close relationship

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Speaker 2: that we're seeing between Somaliland and Israel. Simon, I want

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Speaker 2: to start with you, and then Ethan, I'd be curious

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Speaker 2: to talk to you after well.

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Speaker 5: In the aftermath of Israel recognizing Somaliland, a whole host

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Speaker 5: of countries more than twenty brought out statements against it

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Speaker 5: and supporting Somali's federal sovereignty over Somaliland. Those countries many

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Speaker 5: Arab League members. Egypt came out, Saudi Arabia came out

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Speaker 5: very strongly as well, and it even caused a huge

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Speaker 5: rift between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia over

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Speaker 5: the issue. Following the move, Somalia also canceled a lot

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Speaker 5: of the UAE's projects in Somaliland due to its involvement

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Speaker 5: in allowing a dissident leader in Yemen escape through Somaliland.

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Speaker 5: So this whole issue really sort of put the cat

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Speaker 5: among the pigeons regionally, and I think helplessly Israel needs

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Speaker 5: to step very carefully, I guess, in how it approaches

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Speaker 5: this issue, considering its vulnerability geographically.

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Speaker 1: Ethan, what would you say, I.

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Speaker 3: Think Simon summarized it well.

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Speaker 4: I think that while it is a project and Israel

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Speaker 4: is focused on, Simon a wonderful job reporting on it

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Speaker 4: when he went there, I wouldn't say it's at the

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Speaker 4: top of the list of what this country is up

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Speaker 4: to right this minute. Right it's right in the middle

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Speaker 4: of a war with a rat, it's working on a

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Speaker 4: war with Hisbela in Lebanon, and so this other thing

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Speaker 4: matters to them. But so far, the Houties, by the way,

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Speaker 4: have essentially stayed out of the current conflict, even though

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Speaker 4: they were involved in the post Gaza conflict quite intensely.

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Speaker 4: You know, I think they're still trying to take their

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Speaker 4: measure of the Hooti situation. And it is also important,

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Speaker 4: as Simon notes, that there is a relationship there with

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Speaker 4: the UAE. The Israeli UAE relationship has grown very tight,

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Speaker 4: and in this current war with Iran, the UAE has

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Speaker 4: been notable for complaining about Iran and its response to

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Speaker 4: the attacks, and not complaining about what the United States

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Speaker 4: and Israel have been doing in Iran. And so I

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Speaker 4: think that we'll have to see where this goes. But

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Speaker 4: you know, it is also important to remember that the

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Speaker 4: houtis their slogan is death to Israel, had a curse

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Speaker 4: upon the Jews.

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Speaker 3: They really do want.

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Speaker 4: To do something bad to Israel, and Israel has decided

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Speaker 4: after October seventh it can't let such things just lie.

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Speaker 2: Is Israel not concerned though about the potential wedge that

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Speaker 2: this could draw between other Middle Eastern countries this, I

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Speaker 2: think it.

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Speaker 4: Is concerned, and that's probably why it hasn't acted yet.

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Speaker 4: But you know, it's trying to figure out what to do.

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Speaker 4: I mean in terms of setting up a base or

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Speaker 4: anything like that. Yes, it is concerned. But what has

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Speaker 4: happened since October seventh is in the battle between diplomacy

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Speaker 4: and military based security. Military based security is winning out

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Speaker 4: almost every time.

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Speaker 2: Here simon, where do things go next? What is it

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Speaker 2: that we should be watching out for. Could we see

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Speaker 2: other nations like Israel recognizing Somaliland as well in the

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Speaker 2: independent state, potentially gaining even more independence.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think the Somali Land government is putting a

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Speaker 5: lot of attention into trying to get that second recognition.

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Speaker 5: There are reports that they've engaged a lot with countries

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Speaker 5: like Ethiopia, other African nations like Namibia, for example. On

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Speaker 5: the list, They've looked at India, but so far no

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Speaker 5: one's really jumped the gun there and done it. There's

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Speaker 5: also a huge amount of focus on the US. Somaliland

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Speaker 5: have offered the US a base, also access to critical minerals,

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Speaker 5: which are largely unexplored in the country but widely believed

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Speaker 5: to exist in large quantities. President Trump has also said

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Speaker 5: that this is an issue he is personally looked looking at.

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Speaker 5: So obviously, if the US came in, that would really

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Speaker 5: completely change the whole landscape on this What.

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Speaker 1: Does that mean then for Somalia.

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Speaker 5: Well, Somalia are looking at what's happening and taking their

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Speaker 5: own measures. They've become increasingly close with Turkey, which has

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Speaker 5: a pretty large military presence in the country. They've brought

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Speaker 5: in fighter jets, there's soldiers, there's training operations from the Turks,

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Speaker 5: and the Saudis have also forged a military and security

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Speaker 5: pact with Somalia. That's quite interesting because the Saudis, while

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Speaker 5: they endorse Somalia's sovereignty, they've done very little really financially

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Speaker 5: or militarily speaking, and that's begun to change in recent months.

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Speaker 5: So the instability within Somalia itself, with all its breakaway states, etc.

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Speaker 5: Has it's at fever pitch right now.

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Speaker 1: Ethan maybe final to you.

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Speaker 2: Of course, as you mentioned, Israel has quite a lot

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Speaker 2: on its plate right now. But what is it that

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Speaker 2: you're watching for As far as where this relationship goes next, I.

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Speaker 3: Think that the key point is would the US join?

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Speaker 4: That seems to me the next big issue, And there

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Speaker 4: was some reason here to believe that the US was

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Speaker 4: interested and willing to do so, both for the reasons

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Speaker 4: of joining in this coalition and so on and against

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Speaker 4: the Houtis, and also.

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Speaker 3: Of course for these rare minerals.

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Speaker 4: That are quite important in the industries of the future

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Speaker 4: and AI and that kind of thing. So I think

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Speaker 4: that's the next thing to watch, in addition to what

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Speaker 4: exactly they do in terms of a base. As I

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Speaker 4: said earlier, I doubt it's going to happen imminently. I

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Speaker 4: think it's still in a kind of planning talk stage.

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Speaker 2: Ethan Browner and Simon Marx thanks guys so much for

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Speaker 2: joining us this week on the podcast, and you can

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Speaker 2: read both of their latest reporting on Bloomberg platforms.

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Speaker 1: Now will put a link to that in the show.

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Speaker 4: Note.

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Speaker 2: Here's some of the other stories we've been following across

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Speaker 2: the region this week. How tang the South African province

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Speaker 2: that's home to Johannesburg and the capital, Pretoria, is struggling

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Speaker 2: to grow and shift from manufacturing and mining to a

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Speaker 2: services hub, and it's deepening inequality. That's according to the

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Speaker 2: provincial government, which said urgent action is needed to arrest

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Speaker 2: the decline. And the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda

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Speaker 2: agreed to quote de escalate tensions and implement a peace

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Speaker 2: agreement reached with the help of US President Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: last year. Officials from both nations agreed on concrete steps

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Speaker 2: towards lasting peace in the war toward Eastern Congo, according

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Speaker 2: to a statement by the Department of State, and you

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Speaker 2: can follow these stories across Bloomberg, including the Next African Newsletter.

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Speaker 2: Will put a link to that in the show notes.

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Speaker 2: This program was produced by Adrian Brod Bradley and tiwa Adebayo.

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Speaker 2: Don't forget to follow and review the show wherever you

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Speaker 2: usually get your podcasts, But for now I'm Jennifer's Abasaja.

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Speaker 1: Thanks as always for listening.