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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Blueberg Day Bake You Up podcast, available

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Speaker 2: every morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: the fifth of November here in London. I'm Caroline Hepki and.

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Speaker 3: I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today, US voters head to

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Speaker 3: the polls in a presidential election likely to have global ramifications.

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Speaker 2: Trade is gear up to capture market swings as too

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Speaker 2: close to cool. Polling between Harris and Trump drives on certainty.

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Speaker 3: Plus an exclusive look inside the floating armories that keep

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Speaker 3: profits flowing from Russia's oil fleet despite widespread sanctions.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 3: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have made a final push

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Speaker 3: for votes ahead of today's US presidential election. Poland continues

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Speaker 3: to show a race deadlocked both nationally and across the

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Speaker 3: swing states. Both candidates spent their final day on the

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Speaker 3: campaign trail in Pennsylvania, the state key to both sides chances.

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Speaker 3: Vice President Kamala Harris spoke to supporters in Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 4: Pittsburgh, we are not going back. We're not going back.

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Speaker 5: We're not going back, and we.

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Speaker 4: Are not going back because America is ready for a

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Speaker 4: fresh start.

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Speaker 3: Harris was joined at events on her final day of

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Speaker 3: campaigning by a host of stars, including Lady Gaga, Oprah Winfrey,

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Speaker 3: and Katie Perry. As attention switched from persuading undecided voters

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Speaker 3: to get out the vote operations. On Monday, the podcaster

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Speaker 3: Joe Rogan announced that he's endorsing Donald Trump. After recording

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Speaker 3: an episode of his show with fellow supporter Elon Musk had.

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Speaker 2: His own event in Pittsburgh. Donald Trump said that this

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Speaker 2: would be his final campaign. The former president also told

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Speaker 2: supporters they quote did not have to settle for weakness.

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Speaker 2: He also once again accused Democrat without evidence of attempting

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Speaker 2: to cheat.

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Speaker 5: This is that big, powerful, vicious party there.

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Speaker 6: Now, that's a vicious machine. I mean they can take

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Speaker 6: all these bad ideas and win elections.

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Speaker 7: It's like, there's only way you could do that.

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Speaker 4: One way.

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Speaker 7: There's only one way.

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Speaker 2: Harris's campaign has warned that Trump may try to prematurely

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Speaker 2: declare victory or allege that battle grounds that are still

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Speaker 2: counting votes are engaged in fraud. By the end of

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Speaker 2: election night, near complete results are likely from North Carolina, Georgia,

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Speaker 2: and northern Michigan, but tallies from Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will

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Speaker 2: be expected to trickle in throughout Wednesday.

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Speaker 4: We will have.

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Speaker 2: Full non stop rolling coverage across Bloomberg Radio on Results Night,

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Speaker 2: with the latest updates available via your News Now, audiocasts

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Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify, Alexa, and the Bloomberg website.

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Speaker 3: Equity traders are deciding to stay on the sidelines of

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Speaker 3: the coin toss US election head of voting starting later today.

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Speaker 3: Stocks failed to gain traction and bonds climbed mid narrowly

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Speaker 3: split polls. Mike Wilson, chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, says,

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Speaker 3: there's a lot of uncertainty, but.

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Speaker 8: I think there's scope for further follow through in certain

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Speaker 8: quote unquote Trump trades. At the same time, there's probably,

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Speaker 8: you know, the other side, which is, I think a

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Speaker 8: lot of the negative trades have played out for the

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Speaker 8: Trump trades. I mean, bonds have sold off probably too much,

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Speaker 8: and the renewables and things like consumer goods companies will

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Speaker 8: be hurt by tariffs have really been hammered. So if

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Speaker 8: Harris wins, you could see really a pretty big rebound

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Speaker 8: in some markets, you know. So there's a lot of

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Speaker 8: permutations here.

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Speaker 3: Mike Welsons from Morgan Stanley speaking, They're also preventing traders

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Speaker 3: making riskier bets. Are catalysts around the vote, including Thursday's

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Speaker 3: federal reserve rate decision and US earnings reports.

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Speaker 2: Elon Musk's daily million dollar voter giveaway has survived a

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Speaker 2: legal challenge by Philadelphia's district attorney. Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett has

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Speaker 2: the story.

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Speaker 4: Pennsylvania Judge Angelo Foglieta rejected a request to halt the

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Speaker 4: contest by the DA, who called it an illegal lottery.

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Speaker 4: The ruling, which did not include any reasoning, came shortly

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Speaker 4: after a hearing where Musk's lawyer said that the contest

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Speaker 4: winners were not picked at random. Musk's pro Donald Trump

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Speaker 4: America pack has been giving away one million dollars every

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Speaker 4: day until election Day to people who signed a petition

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Speaker 4: calling for free speech and the right to bear arms.

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Speaker 4: The winner must be a registered voter in a swing

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Speaker 4: state in New York. Charlie Pellett Bloomberg.

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Speaker 3: Radio Boeing's workers have voted to end a strike that's

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Speaker 3: crippled the planemaker for seven weeks. The International Association of

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Speaker 3: machinists and aerospace workers agreed to return to work for

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Speaker 3: a thirty eight percent increase in wages. Their District seven

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Speaker 3: fifty one President John Holden says it's a win for

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Speaker 3: the union.

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Speaker 6: They secured a victory. They voted by fifty nine percent

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Speaker 6: to accept the agreement and they get to move forward.

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Speaker 6: The strike will end, and now it's our job to

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Speaker 6: get back to work and starry building the airplanes, increase

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Speaker 6: the rates and bring this company back to financial success.

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Speaker 3: Holden there who led the striking workers who had rejected

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Speaker 3: three previous deals. The breakthrough represents a major victory for

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Speaker 3: new Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, who faces the challenge of

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Speaker 3: turning the struggling Planemaker around.

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Speaker 2: A British Chancellor's joining a Eurozone finance minister's meeting for

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Speaker 2: the first time since the UK left the EU in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty, Rachel Reeves has accepted an invitation from the

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Speaker 2: Eurogroup to go to their summit next month. Pooemberg's James

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Speaker 2: Wilcock has more.

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Speaker 5: The US election on the horizon has many in Europe

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Speaker 5: thinking about their ties with countries closer to home. The

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Speaker 5: coming visit from Reeves a month after the Prime Minister

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Speaker 5: and Foreign Secretary went is a sign of the UK's

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Speaker 5: further attempts to deepen cooperation with the EU. It's not

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Speaker 5: just diplomacy though, but economics. The Chancellor is under pressure

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Speaker 5: to boost growth. How government thinks reduced border checks and

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Speaker 5: new visa rules might help, although crucially they draw a

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Speaker 5: red line at rejoining the Single market. In London, James

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Speaker 5: Wilcock Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 3: And Apple is exploring a push into smart classes with

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Speaker 3: an internal study of products already on the market. It

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Speaker 3: sets the stage for the company to follow the likes

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Speaker 3: of Meta into an increasingly popular category. Bloomberg understands at

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Speaker 3: the initiative, code named Atlas, involves gathering feedback from Apple

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Speaker 3: employees and focus groups. Our chief correspondent Mark German says

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Speaker 3: the practice is commonplace now.

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Speaker 1: Before Apple enters a new product category, it often does this.

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Speaker 1: It creates these employee studies, does them internally as a

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Speaker 1: way to not let these types of initiatives leak out publicly. Right. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: we found out about this one, and this is indicative

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Speaker 1: of the company being at an early stage of exploration

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Speaker 1: on this topic. But I believe they are pretty focused

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Speaker 1: on trying to go after the smart classes from.

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Speaker 3: Meta Bloomberg's Mark German speaking there, The studies are being

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Speaker 3: led by a POSE Product Systems quality team, part of

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Speaker 3: the Hardware Engineering division, and.

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Speaker 2: Those our top stories for you this morning. On the

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Speaker 2: markets on Wall Street, the S and P five hundred

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Speaker 2: closed down three tenths of one percent. Stop futures now

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Speaker 2: are steady to flat. For the US, the US dollar

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Speaker 2: felt four tenths of one percent as the Trump trade

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Speaker 2: faded after new polls. That was yesterday. US treasuries tenure

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Speaker 2: yields have maintained their nine basis point rally, and bitcoin

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Speaker 2: yesterday fell by three percent. This morning, you have much

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Speaker 2: lighter liquidity and volumes in the Asian trade. The cs

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Speaker 2: I three hundred is up by two tenths, sorry, by

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Speaker 2: two four percentage points. Crude futures, which saw two point

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Speaker 2: nine percent yesterday, are also flat this morning at seventy

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Speaker 2: five dollars zero four. It really does feel like everyone

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Speaker 2: in the US and really around the world is waiting

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Speaker 2: for this election result.

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Speaker 3: We're going to bring you more on that in just

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Speaker 3: a moment, both the politics and how markets are preparing.

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Speaker 3: But another aspect of the story that caught is the

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Speaker 3: number of Americans who are looking at services to move

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Speaker 3: them elsewhere, perhaps linked to the results of the election.

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Speaker 2: I know, and it's either way really, whatever your political leanings.

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Speaker 2: Apparently uncertainty in the US means that that is driving

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Speaker 2: demand for expat services. Bim Big Sarah Rappaport has been

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Speaker 2: writing about how companies that advise Americans on how to

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Speaker 2: move abroad, be it to Portugal to Italy in the UK,

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Speaker 2: that they're becoming busier than ever, have been busier than

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Speaker 2: ever in the run up to the election. Blame election stress,

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Speaker 2: is what she says.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, indeed, I mean, look, it's a very interesting reader

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Speaker 3: the fact that people are considering making those sorts of

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Speaker 3: moves on the back of today's vote, just of course,

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Speaker 3: a few hours to go until polls open and what's

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Speaker 3: expected to be one of the closest US presidential elections

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Speaker 3: and modern history. In the final hours of campaigning, Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump and Caramel Harris have been it's focusing on states

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Speaker 3: including Pennsylvania and Michigan. Our senior editor Bill Ferries is

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Speaker 3: with us for more bail. What were the final messages

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Speaker 3: than from the two campaigns.

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Speaker 9: Well, you're right, Donald Trump I think just wrapped up

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Speaker 9: or is wrapping up post midnight speech. Kamala Harris and

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Speaker 9: her campaign wrapped up one in Philadelphia on the stairs

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Speaker 9: made famous in the Rocky movie in the last hour.

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Speaker 4: So not a lot of.

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Speaker 9: New policy proposals, as you can imagine in these final speeches.

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Speaker 9: A big push by both sides encouraging people who haven't

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Speaker 9: voted and so far more than I think seventy five

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Speaker 9: million have, but encouraging those who haven't to get out.

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Speaker 9: And in terms of the messages, you heard a lot

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Speaker 9: of focus about the economy from both sides. You had

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Speaker 9: Kamala Harris on stage saying that she will go after

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Speaker 9: companies that engage in price gouging, particularly at the grocery stores.

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Speaker 9: She talked about her plans to provide tax breaks to

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Speaker 9: small business. And then on the Trump side, you heard

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Speaker 9: a lot again like a typical campaign speech, she talked

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Speaker 9: a lot about tariffs. He asked Americans that question that

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Speaker 9: helped Ronald Reagan all the way back in nineteen eighty

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Speaker 9: four or nineteen eighty actually he said are you better

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Speaker 9: off now than you were four years ago? That's been

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Speaker 9: part of his standard pitch. So the two sides just

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Speaker 9: trying to see what they can do to get out

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Speaker 9: any voters who haven't voted and those who maybe haven't

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Speaker 9: decided whether or not to vote.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and the polling up until voting day has looked

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Speaker 2: incredibly close. Donald Trump secured this last minute endorsement from

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Speaker 2: the podcast to Joe Rogan, and we gave you the

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Speaker 2: list of all the celebrities who were at Kamala House's

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Speaker 2: events open Lady Gargo. So how much does that matter

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Speaker 2: do you think?

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Speaker 9: You know, overall, I have a hard time seeing how

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Speaker 9: celebrity celebrity performances or endorsement on the last night of

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Speaker 9: the election season will really swing someone, But you know,

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Speaker 9: it's all possible. I do think Joe Rogan has an

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Speaker 9: audience that both campaigns I think cove it. And that's

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Speaker 9: largely younger men, and that's a group that doesn't really

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Speaker 9: tend to turn out in very high numbers and elections.

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Speaker 9: That's a group that is leaning very much towards Trump.

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Speaker 9: So the Rogan endorsement, maybe, like on the margins of

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Speaker 9: the margins at this point, might get a few more

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Speaker 9: people out, But I don't know if you didn't, if

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Speaker 9: you weren't going to go out and vote. At this

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Speaker 9: point in the campaign, I'm not sure if Joe Rogan

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Speaker 9: on the last day gets you there.

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Speaker 3: Bill One are the key next steps we should be

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Speaker 3: watching out for as we look towards after polling day.

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Speaker 9: So you know, the polls start closing, I think as

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Speaker 9: early as six pm Eastern time in the United States,

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Speaker 9: Indiana is one of those states that closes first. Now

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Speaker 9: Indiana as a all in on Trump, there's no doubt

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Speaker 9: that he will win the state. But if you're watching

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Speaker 9: at home looking for trends, one thing will be how

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Speaker 9: well are Republicans doing in Indiana. Are they up by

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Speaker 9: fifty five percent or more or is it a little

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Speaker 9: more like fifty two forty eight If if Republicans are

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Speaker 9: underperforming in a state like Indiana, that's probably a tough

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Speaker 9: signal for them. In terms of battleground states like Wisconsin

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Speaker 9: and Michigan, there are some house races you could watch.

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Speaker 9: The seventh Congressional District in Virginia is a very tight

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Speaker 9: race as historically Republican, but Democrats have held that seat.

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Speaker 9: That's one that if it's going for the Dems, it's

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Speaker 9: probably a good sign for them and Republicans would love

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Speaker 9: to take that seat back.

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Speaker 4: So even in.

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Speaker 9: Areas where you know Trump is expected to win or

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Speaker 9: Harris is expected to win, those margins might give us

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Speaker 9: a little bit of information about what's coming later in

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Speaker 9: some of these more you know, crucial battlegrounds.

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Speaker 2: Bill, Thank you so much then for those pointers are

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Speaker 2: Senior editor Bill Ferries. There, let's flip though from voters

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Speaker 2: to investors. We've seen heightened volatility across ecuty, bond and

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Speaker 2: FX markets, and then this morning actually lighter volumes and

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Speaker 2: real nervousness are creeping into markets. That's bring in Bluebag's

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Speaker 2: markets for Porter Valuie Titel. We've seen a dip in

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Speaker 2: the US Treasury yield and a softer dollar. What does

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Speaker 2: positioning look like now?

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Speaker 10: Look, a lot of the positioning and nervousness is focused

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Speaker 10: in FX space in the dollar. The dollar is seen

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Speaker 10: still as the cleanest way to play the selection. On

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Speaker 10: a Trump win, you get a stronger dollar. On a

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Speaker 10: Harris win, you get a weaker dollar. And it's being

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Speaker 10: played out through various currency pairs, one of which I

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Speaker 10: want to talk about is the Chinese yuan dollar CNH

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Speaker 10: and dollar CNY. The one week applied option volatility is

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Speaker 10: at record levels. We are really I guess, preparing for

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Speaker 10: the fact that a Trump win could mean that US

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Speaker 10: China relations in terms of tariffs really goes to I

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Speaker 10: guess another level more than what we saw the tariff

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Speaker 10: escalation in the previous Trump regime. We also have seen

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Speaker 10: elevated levels in dollar dollar mechs, the Mexican peso, as

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Speaker 10: Trump has reiterated even just yesterday his move on tariffs

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Speaker 10: in Mexico. And then the third currency pair that has

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Speaker 10: seen stretch volatility is euro dollar. Again, the European economy

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Speaker 10: is very much exposed to tariffs, not even that, but

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Speaker 10: the planned defense spending that possibly a Trump administration could

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Speaker 10: force European governments to spend more on defense. In terms

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Speaker 10: of other markets, the equity market, the S and P

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Speaker 10: five hundred, we've seen bearish hedges come into play, so

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Speaker 10: investors looking for downside protection there, but it's been more

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Speaker 10: nuanced when it comes to the equity picture. We've seen

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Speaker 10: crypto stocks those are at heightened volatility levels. Trump win

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Speaker 10: could see as pro regulation in terms of a crypto assets.

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Speaker 10: And then on Harris Win side, we've seen a surge

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Speaker 10: in implied volatility for clean energy stocks. That is a

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Speaker 10: more of a Harris trade there. When it comes to

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Speaker 10: the treasury market, we have seen a lot of de

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Speaker 10: risking over the last few sessions, especially yesterday when this

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Speaker 10: Trump trade was a bit unwound in the market, Caroline.

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Speaker 10: So perhaps the de risking and treasuries means that we

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Speaker 10: could see a big surge in volumes later today, this evening,

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Speaker 10: next tomorrow morning, perhaps when a winner becomes clear and

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Speaker 10: investors are more willing to re establish those positions in

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Speaker 10: the treasury market. So keep an eye out for that

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Speaker 10: as well.

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Speaker 3: Okay, lots to watch out for. Valerie t Teller, market supporter,

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Speaker 3: thank you very much for joining us to another story now,

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Speaker 3: the UK has spent more than a year trying to

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Speaker 3: get hundreds of guns removed from floating armories that are

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Speaker 3: helping Russia profit enormously from its oil trade despite widespread sanctions.

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Speaker 3: Joining us now with more details, Bimberg supporter Alberto Nardelli. Alberto,

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Speaker 3: good morning. What are these floating armories?

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Speaker 7: So essentially floating armories on hotels in the middle of

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Speaker 7: high risk bits of the old for security guards and

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Speaker 7: floating storage units for guns. This industry emerged a couple

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Speaker 7: of decades ago when there was a spike in pirate

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Speaker 7: attacks off the coast of Somalia and oil tankers and

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Speaker 7: cargo ships that were traveling in those areas needed security

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Speaker 7: to protect them from attacks. Now, countries in that in

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Speaker 7: those areas didn't want a load of guns stored on land,

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Speaker 7: So this idea of floating armories was developed and companies

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Speaker 7: started to relate security. Companies started to rely on them

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Speaker 7: to protect ships going through those areas.

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Speaker 2: Basically, but how does all of this help Russia then

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Speaker 2: with its transportation of oil.

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Speaker 7: So basically, when the West and Europe in particular introduced

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Speaker 7: an embargo on Russian oil, had to start finding new

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Speaker 7: places to sell its oil. And most of it is

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Speaker 7: now going to Asia and India in particular, So as

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Speaker 7: it transports its oil.

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Speaker 11: To India, its tankers have to go through through that route,

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Speaker 11: and so it has come to rely on this type

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Speaker 11: of service to keep its oil safe.

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Speaker 7: As it ships it to countries like India.

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Speaker 3: So what does the UK and guns that were once

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Speaker 3: licensed in the.

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Speaker 4: UK have to do with all of this?

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Speaker 7: So much of this industry in its origins was developed

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Speaker 7: in the West, so you had British companies, American companies,

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Speaker 7: and lots of the licenses that were provided both to

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Speaker 7: the armories which allows them to store the guns at

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Speaker 7: see and to the security companies which allows them to

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Speaker 7: move the guns onto these armories were British and what

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Speaker 7: happened last year is that the UK they revoked the

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Speaker 7: licenses that a company needed to manage free floating armories.

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Speaker 7: And what the revocation of a license needs is that

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Speaker 7: security companies that use those armories have to move those

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Speaker 7: guns to somewhere licensed. And that was about a year

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Speaker 7: ago and since then very little has happened because the

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Speaker 7: various companies have in the meanwhile moved out of UK

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Speaker 7: jurisdiction and so there's actually very little that the UK

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Speaker 7: can do to try and retrieve these weapons.

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