Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. I'm Stephen Carol and
Speaker 1: this is Here's Why, where we take one news story
Speaker 1: and explain it in just a few minutes with our
Speaker 1: experts here at Bloomberg. Over forty years ago, Ronald Reagan
Speaker 1: asked voters a question that's shaped the political conversation for decades.
Speaker 1: Since Are you better off than you were four years ago?
Speaker 2: Is it easier for you to go and buy things
Speaker 2: in the stores than it was four years ago? Is
Speaker 2: there more or less unemployment in the country than there
Speaker 2: was four years ago?
Speaker 1: Fast forward to twenty twenty four, and it's still as
Speaker 1: President Clinton stratus James Carvill once said, the economy stupid
Speaker 1: and judging by how it's doing, Joe Biden should be
Speaker 1: a shoeing in November's election.
Speaker 2: This economy has been incredibly resilient, stronger than I expected.
Speaker 1: Consumer spending on services rose over four percent. That's like
Speaker 1: the highest in two decades. The US economy is chugging
Speaker 1: along pretty well. Yes, US exceptionalism still stands. There's a
Speaker 1: thousand things that can go wrong tomorrow. For right now,
Speaker 1: everything's in pretty good shape. The US has dodged recession,
Speaker 1: but is there a Vibe session. Here's why inflation is
Speaker 1: coming down, but voters don't seem to care. We've got
Speaker 1: our senior editor, Wendy Benjaminson with us from Washington to
Speaker 1: help explain. High Wendy, how well can we say the
Speaker 1: US economy is doing well?
Speaker 2: By all the measures we use here at Bloomberg and
Speaker 2: that the government uses, the economy is doing very well.
Speaker 2: Unemployment is at historic lows, Inflation the rate of inflation
Speaker 2: is coming down. The Dow Jones Industrial average hit forty
Speaker 2: thousand last week, which is a record. So in all
Speaker 2: these areas that we understand to measure the economy, the
Speaker 2: economy is doing well.
Speaker 1: So the data is all telling us one story. But
Speaker 1: what does our latest polling tell us about how people
Speaker 1: are feeling about the economy.
Speaker 2: Well, I think your term Vibe session was just perfect
Speaker 2: because all our Bloomberg News Morning Consult monthly pull of
Speaker 2: voters in the swing states, the states in the US
Speaker 2: that matter to the election where we don't know where
Speaker 2: the outcome is, shows that voters are deeply, deeply pessimistic
Speaker 2: about the economy and its future. And to Ronald Reagan's
Speaker 2: remark that you've cited at the top. We even ask
Speaker 2: do you feel better than you did four years ago?
Speaker 2: And the answer is a solid resounding no. We asked
Speaker 2: by the end of the year, do you see the
Speaker 2: inflation rate getting better or worse? Fifty five percent that
Speaker 2: it would get worse. Do you feel the overall US
Speaker 2: economy is going to get better or worse? Fifty one
Speaker 2: percent said it would get worse. And then when we
Speaker 2: ask them how do you best describe your relationship with
Speaker 2: the US economy, the choice I am not doing well
Speaker 2: financially and the US economy is not doing well was
Speaker 2: cited by forty percent of our swing state voters. So
Speaker 2: they're feeling lousy and they're going to take it out
Speaker 2: on Joe Biden.
Speaker 1: It's a very it's complicated sort of situation. Why do
Speaker 1: we think people aren't celebrating what we are seeing in
Speaker 1: the data, which is things like, you know, the rate
Speaker 1: of inflation coming.
Speaker 2: Down well because consumers aren't feeling it yet. So if
Speaker 2: you're going to a grocery store in Michigan and butter
Speaker 2: is still six dollars a pound, which is what you
Speaker 2: were paying in twenty twenty one, as opposed to the
Speaker 2: three dollars a pound you were paying in twenty twenty
Speaker 2: or twenty nineteen when Trump was president. You look around
Speaker 2: and think, I don't know what they're talking about at Bloomberg,
Speaker 2: and the prices haven't come down at all. And President
Speaker 2: Joe Biden has complained that retailers and manufacturers are not
Speaker 2: lowering their prices now that they're of Inflation is coming down.
Speaker 2: But like I said, voters just aren't feeling it.
Speaker 1: Are they blaming Joe Biden or blaming the retailers or
Speaker 1: where are they pointing the finger when it comes to
Speaker 1: them not feeling the effects of things improving.
Speaker 2: Well, I'm glad you asked that because another question we
Speaker 2: asked is who do you blame for the state of
Speaker 2: the US economy? And I think all of us here
Speaker 2: know and people who study it know that the President
Speaker 2: of the United States actually doesn't have that much power
Speaker 2: over it. There are so many external factors, and yet
Speaker 2: the majority blame the president and they believe they were
Speaker 2: better off under Donald Trump. And the truth is, the
Speaker 2: economy was doing fine under Donald Trump until a global
Speaker 2: pandemic hit, which Joe Biden inherited and has been trying,
Speaker 2: with varying levels of success, to get us out of that.
Speaker 1: Is there any way to change voters' minds before polling day? Well,
Speaker 1: big question.
Speaker 2: It is a huge question. The feelings about these two
Speaker 2: Cares candidates are so baked in that I think it
Speaker 2: would have to take a dramatic change in inflation. Those
Speaker 2: who are want to work, are working. The middle class
Speaker 2: and lower economic classes will tell you that, yes, I'm working,
Speaker 2: and I have to have two jobs to pay my
Speaker 2: rent to buy a house. This is also affecting young voters.
Speaker 2: I should have brought up borrowing rates earlier. Interest rates
Speaker 2: are so high that people are graduating from college and
Speaker 2: they don't look forward to buying a house, and rents
Speaker 2: are tremendously high. And so I don't know how Joe
Speaker 2: Biden turns it around except to say it's going to
Speaker 2: get better. But that's a lot of trust in a politician,
Speaker 2: which Americans just don't have these days.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it certainly is. Is this just an American thing?
Speaker 1: Do we see this phenomenon other parts of the world
Speaker 1: as well?
Speaker 2: We are saying it across Europe and certainly in Latin America. Yes,
Speaker 2: Argentine President Malay recently was pounding his fist on a
Speaker 2: podium and saying no, I plata, there is no we
Speaker 2: own money, you know, stop printing money. We don't have it.
Speaker 2: So it is happening all over the world, and that
Speaker 2: is why I think you're seeing more and more conservative
Speaker 2: and right wing governments being elected.
Speaker 1: Thanks very much, Wendy. That's Bloomberg's senior editor in Washington,
Speaker 1: Wendy Benjamins. In there and for more explanations like this
Speaker 1: from our team of twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts
Speaker 1: around the world, search for Quick Take on the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: website or the Bloomberg Business app. I'm Stephen Carroll, and
Speaker 1: this is here's why. I'll be back next week with more.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.