1 00:00:03,040 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: It's the big take from Bloomberg News and I Heart 2 00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:10,360 Speaker 1: Radio and West Pasova today, how Iran and Russia are 3 00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 1: teaming up to evade Western sanctions. The tough sanctions the 4 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 1: US and its European allies imposed on Iran and Russia 5 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:35,519 Speaker 1: have succeeded in cutting off those two countries from much 6 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: of the world's economy. They're largely banished from the Western 7 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:42,600 Speaker 1: banking system, and the flow of goods and services to 8 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 1: and from the West is dried up. Of course, that's 9 00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:49,479 Speaker 1: the whole point to exert pressure on Iran to abandon 10 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 1: its nuclear program, among other things, and on Russia to 11 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 1: stop its war against Ukraine. But the sanctions also led 12 00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 1: to something else. Russia and Iran have now united to 13 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:04,320 Speaker 1: create a new eighteen hundred mile long trade route that 14 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 1: lets them defy some of the sanctions by moving products 15 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 1: over land and water that's beyond the reach of Western 16 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:14,320 Speaker 1: law enforcement. Since they're shunned by the West, the two 17 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 1: countries are now looking to the East. They're spending billions 18 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 1: of dollars to ease the delivery of cargo to quickly 19 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:26,200 Speaker 1: growing economies in Asia. My Bloomberg colleagues, Golnar Matavali in 20 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:30,480 Speaker 1: London and Jonathan Tyrone in Vienna have written a deeply 21 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 1: reported story for Business Week about this new alliance of 22 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 1: convenience between Russia in Iran, and they're here to help 23 00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 1: us understand what to make of it. Goldner and Jonathan, 24 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 1: thanks for being here. Thank you, thanks for having me. 25 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 1: You have written this fascinating story about how Iran and 26 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 1: Russia have created this complicated new trade route to get 27 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 1: around sanctions by the US in the EU. You, Jonathan, 28 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 1: maybe I'll start with you. Can you describe this trade 29 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 1: route and what it's trying to circumvent. We began noticing 30 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 1: arise in trade between Iran and Russia to the most 31 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 1: heaviest sanctioned countries on Earth, and started looking at how 32 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:20,040 Speaker 1: that trade is being conducted. And obviously there's a lot 33 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 1: of moving boundaries right now because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, 34 00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 1: including taking what's called the Sea of as of which 35 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: is extension of the Black Sea located in between the 36 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 1: Peninsul of Crimea, which Russia took over in the city 37 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 1: of Maripol, which Russia took over in April May, and 38 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:46,919 Speaker 1: that creates new inland transport corridors for Russia to send 39 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:51,600 Speaker 1: goods to Iran and vice versa. Russia can ship goods 40 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 1: down the Vulgar River, up the Don River, two rivers 41 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:58,639 Speaker 1: and southern Russia that lead into the Caspian Sea, which 42 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:01,680 Speaker 1: is shared with Iran. And so it's not just the 43 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:06,239 Speaker 1: traditional Russian deliveries of grain and energy flowing down this 44 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 1: southern corridor. Suddenly now it's also Iranian products that are 45 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 1: flowing north because Iran also wants to escape sanctions, and 46 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:18,920 Speaker 1: so we're they're signing deals to ship turbines and plastics, 47 00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 1: and of most concerned for Western policymakers, drones and other 48 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:28,080 Speaker 1: weapons that can go over the Caspian c into Russia 49 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 1: directly without the possibility being interdicted on international waters. Golnar. 50 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 1: It used to be that a lot of these goods 51 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 1: could just travel on open waters and goods were delivered 52 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 1: in this way. Of course, they are that way all 53 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 1: around the world, but the sanctions cut them off, and 54 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 1: so instead Iran and Russia have created a whole new 55 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 1: overland trade route which is not subject to inspection or 56 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 1: enforcement by U S sanctions. Can you describe that route? 57 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 1: They've had this idea for a long time Russia and Iran. 58 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 1: It's something that Iran has been really pushing for. It's 59 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 1: always looking to circumvent sanctions and bypass sanctions and specifically 60 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:18,160 Speaker 1: US and EU penalties by using different pathways and roots 61 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 1: and various different types of disguises to try and foil 62 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 1: its trade with countries, particularly countries like China and other 63 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 1: countries around the world. And so what they've wanted to 64 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 1: do for a long time in Tehran is to link 65 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:36,880 Speaker 1: their ports in the Caspian Sea, which historically have always 66 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:42,120 Speaker 1: been very accessible to Russian markets, obviously to the Persian Gulf, 67 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:44,680 Speaker 1: because the Persian Golf, as we know, is kind of 68 00:04:44,720 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 1: like it's the choke point for global energy supplies. It's 69 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:52,359 Speaker 1: a hugely significant for oil trade, and it's a massive, 70 00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:57,039 Speaker 1: huge importance for Iran's economy. Making sure that the Persian 71 00:04:57,040 --> 00:05:00,120 Speaker 1: Golf and the Strait of Horribles specifically is open and 72 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 1: that Iran has ready access to that and that it 73 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 1: can kind of bypass any perceived threats from the US, 74 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 1: for instance, because of the U s military obviously has 75 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 1: quite a strong presence also in the area, and Iran 76 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:17,920 Speaker 1: has difficult and tense relationships with its neighbors. And has 77 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 1: had for the past ten years. Now the Russian leader 78 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:23,839 Speaker 1: wants to bypass the blockade with the help of new 79 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 1: partner countries. Russia's answer is the new north south route 80 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:34,359 Speaker 1: from St. Petersburg, Moscow, Azerbaijan, Iran and to Mumbai. Russia 81 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 1: hopes this new route could replace some of its last 82 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 1: trade with the West. The idea is that using a 83 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 1: land corridor, so going from the northern coast of Iran 84 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 1: on the Caspian Sea, cutting through the country, using railway 85 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:56,359 Speaker 1: lines to link effectively these ports to the southern Persian 86 00:05:56,640 --> 00:06:01,280 Speaker 1: Gulf coast where they have these major trade terminals like 87 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 1: Bandar a Boss, which they're using now at the moment, 88 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 1: and they've used Bandara Boss to pilot this corridor so 89 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:10,920 Speaker 1: far and send some goods to Russia, and more recently 90 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:12,719 Speaker 1: what they want to try and do is also used 91 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 1: the port of Chabahar. Chabahar is much closer to Iran's 92 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 1: border with Pakistan, and so the importance and significance of 93 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:26,359 Speaker 1: that is that it comes east of the Strait of Hormones. 94 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 1: So if goods come from Bandarabos, they have to pass 95 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:34,080 Speaker 1: through the Strait of Hormones using a port like Chabahar 96 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 1: as an alternative to Bandar a boss again bypasses that 97 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 1: political risk as well, and it can get goods straight 98 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:45,960 Speaker 1: into the Indian Ocean and through to markets into Asia 99 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:50,839 Speaker 1: like India, for instance China. What's very unique by Chabahar 100 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:53,840 Speaker 1: is it's exempt for U S sanctions. It's speculated that 101 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:57,600 Speaker 1: it was originally granted a because the US wants to 102 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:01,480 Speaker 1: keep India on sides and be Chabahar was seen as 103 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:05,480 Speaker 1: a potentially strategic link to supply US troops in Afghanistan 104 00:07:05,680 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 1: back when they were still there. And whether the sanctions 105 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 1: exemption remains or not is one of those open questions. 106 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 1: And this is also quite an expensive venture. What has 107 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 1: it cost to expand this trade route so far? The 108 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:23,440 Speaker 1: headline numbers about twenty five billion dollars more or less 109 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 1: evenly split them either side. The Russians are spending billions, 110 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 1: have committed billions to dredge and expands river ways and 111 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 1: lynn river ways so bigger and bigger ships are able 112 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 1: to pass some of these narrow waterways exactly. The capacity 113 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 1: constraint is the weather. Parts of it frees up right now, 114 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:46,440 Speaker 1: Parts of it are too shallow, so there needs to 115 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 1: be significant investment to increase the capacity, to make it 116 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 1: internationally competitive with longer routes. The bigger ships comply carrying 117 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:57,880 Speaker 1: bigger loads. Do the US and the EU have any 118 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 1: way of limiting or enforcing sanctions in this route with 119 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 1: the rail line, with the railroad, No, I don't see 120 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:11,560 Speaker 1: how they could possibly do that the Persian Golf, or 121 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:16,720 Speaker 1: we've seen how quickly crises can erupt in that waterway. 122 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 1: We had it under Trump, we had effectively a second 123 00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 1: tank a war. If they choose to then swoop into 124 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:28,000 Speaker 1: the Persian Golf like a US vessel and wants to 125 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:33,960 Speaker 1: circumvent a ship which it suspects, for instance, of carrying 126 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 1: maybe some some kind of goods from Russia that it's 127 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 1: destined to go to China or India that's come bya 128 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:45,840 Speaker 1: Iran that is sanctioned, then that potentially can happen if 129 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 1: they do it in international waters inside the Persian Gulf. 130 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 1: But doing that obviously really elevates the kind of risk 131 00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 1: scenario in the Persian Golf. I'll continue my conversation with 132 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 1: Goner and Jonathan in just to bit but to understand 133 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 1: why Iran and Russia are going to such great lengths 134 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:08,600 Speaker 1: to avoid these Western sanctions is we're taking a moment 135 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 1: to talk about the sanctions themselves and what it is 136 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 1: that they do, or at least are supposed to do. 137 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 1: So let's bring in someone who knows this subject. Cold. 138 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:22,959 Speaker 1: Dr Maria Shagana joins me now from Berlin. She's a 139 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 1: senior fellow who studies economic sanctions at the International Institute 140 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:32,959 Speaker 1: for Strategic Studies, a British think tank. Maria, thanks for 141 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 1: being here. Thank you for inviting me. Maria. The U 142 00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 1: S and the European Union have imposed a lot of 143 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 1: sanctions on many individuals and companies and other entities. Exactly 144 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:49,199 Speaker 1: what did these sanctions cover? Indeed, there has been a 145 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:52,520 Speaker 1: truly a barrage of sanctions. We heard on a number 146 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:55,520 Speaker 1: of times that we see no unprecedented sanctions, not just 147 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 1: in terms of their scope, but also in terms of 148 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 1: how quick they have been imposed. And the main blocks 149 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:08,240 Speaker 1: of the sanctions boils down to the expert sanctions that 150 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:14,520 Speaker 1: nothing from the u US comes into Russia from strategic sectors. 151 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 1: Then we have deal used technology such as semiconductors are 152 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:22,680 Speaker 1: no longer allowed to be exported to Russia. The recent 153 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:26,839 Speaker 1: development is the the oil embargo the price cap. On 154 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 1: top of this, we have also unintended consequences which came 155 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:37,360 Speaker 1: was a positive impact is volunteerily that companies withdrew from 156 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 1: Russia and that has amplified the impact of sanctions on 157 00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 1: the run. We have sanctions from two thousand and twelve 158 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:49,720 Speaker 1: early all as well, so it has been quite comprehensive 159 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 1: as well. We have energy sector again do used technologies, 160 00:10:54,200 --> 00:11:00,319 Speaker 1: also strategic sectors, aviation technology. So the two can trees, 161 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:03,920 Speaker 1: as they said, are naturally pivoting to each other because 162 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:09,240 Speaker 1: they are both isolating countries. More with Maria Shagina when 163 00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:21,319 Speaker 1: we come back, Maria, you've spelled out what the Western 164 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:24,240 Speaker 1: sanctions and Russia in Iran are supposed to do it. 165 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 1: They're supposed to isolate them and pressure them. How effective 166 00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 1: our sanctions are doing that. The g c po A deal, 167 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 1: which is nuclear deal, which is linked to to the 168 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 1: Iranian sanctions regime, is usually cited as this positive example 169 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:47,959 Speaker 1: where sanctions pressure was positive during the Obama administration. The 170 00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 1: Iranian elites were interested in signing that agreement and then 171 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 1: lifting sanctions. Now we have to say there are not 172 00:11:55,320 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 1: many positive examples like that. That agreement unfortunately has failed 173 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 1: with the Trump administration withdrawing from unilaterally, and with Russia, 174 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:10,559 Speaker 1: we have sanctions from two thousand fourteen and we haven't 175 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:15,720 Speaker 1: had really a behavioral change. Now with the recent sanctions 176 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:19,199 Speaker 1: from twenty twenty two, the objective is rather moderates, not 177 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:23,120 Speaker 1: a behavioral change, but actually to curs Russia, to compel 178 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:26,880 Speaker 1: it to withdraw from Ukraine as much as possible to 179 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:29,760 Speaker 1: your road its ability to fund the work. So you 180 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:32,559 Speaker 1: can judge that effectiveness as you want. If you have 181 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:36,600 Speaker 1: the maximalist objective, the Russia has to withdraw from Ukraine, 182 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:39,360 Speaker 1: that is not happening at the moment. But if the 183 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:43,079 Speaker 1: objective is to road in the long term and to 184 00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:49,439 Speaker 1: signal the norms to constrain Russia's ability, that part is unfolding. 185 00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:55,439 Speaker 1: I suppose one measure of the success of sanctions is 186 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 1: that it's squeezing around in Russia enough that they do 187 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:03,800 Speaker 1: wanting to embark on this very expensive arrangement to create 188 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 1: an entirely new trade route to circumvent the sanctions. Indeed, 189 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:12,840 Speaker 1: so one side to look at the effectiveness of sanctions 190 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 1: is to make it much more cumversome, much more expensive 191 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 1: for these countries to circumvent them, and that's what's happened 192 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:24,560 Speaker 1: in both in Iran and in Russia. And we see 193 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:28,320 Speaker 1: that Iran and Russia are exchanging and goods that both 194 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 1: can trade because they have achieved that some certain degree 195 00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 1: of self sufficiency due to sanctions circumvention. And here the 196 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 1: story on chips, I think, is this exemplary that Russia 197 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 1: is using Iranian drones. Russia attached the Ukrainian capital of 198 00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:47,480 Speaker 1: Key with thirteen in Iranian made drones. Ukraine has it 199 00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:50,720 Speaker 1: managed to shoot them down? Those several buildings were damaged. 200 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:55,679 Speaker 1: Uranian drones eight to five dependent on Western semiconductors. So 201 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 1: we have that exchange of convenience, that partnership of convenience, 202 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 1: but it has its limits. In order for this new 203 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:10,839 Speaker 1: trading route to work, it depends on the cooperation of 204 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 1: a lot of other countries, including India, including other countries 205 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 1: in Asia and in the Middle East, which puts them 206 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:22,960 Speaker 1: in an uncomfortable position. Do you anticipate that these countries, 207 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 1: some of them, will be willing to fly out the 208 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:30,400 Speaker 1: United States and all of Europe in order to accommodate 209 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:35,320 Speaker 1: Russia and Iran. So when it comes to sanctions their convention, 210 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:39,560 Speaker 1: we have to distinguish between these heavily sanctioned countries like Iran, 211 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:43,720 Speaker 1: North Korea, Venezuela, and also the Black Nights. This is 212 00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 1: the academic term that is used to describe thoad countries 213 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:52,120 Speaker 1: like China, India or Haven't the lined with sanctions. They 214 00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 1: don't want to violate sanctions outright, but they are willing 215 00:14:56,000 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 1: to capitalize to exploit the loopholes. So the access to 216 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 1: this Black Nights, to China, to Turkey, to India is 217 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 1: key for they have a lest sanctions countries because as 218 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:10,520 Speaker 1: I said, by default, they're very much limited and what 219 00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:14,600 Speaker 1: they can exchange, how they can conduct their financial transactions. 220 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 1: So they're very much dependent on access and willingness of 221 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 1: the third countries, these Black Knights to engage with them. 222 00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:26,160 Speaker 1: China is surprisingly not very much eager to violate the 223 00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 1: Western sanctions outright again, but we see that Turkey is 224 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 1: more willing to maybe step in in some areas and 225 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:38,480 Speaker 1: to help Russia to re explore deal used technology that 226 00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 1: is no longer accessible when it comes to India, also 227 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 1: similar to China, that they're again using that cheap Russian 228 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:50,880 Speaker 1: commodities and particularly in the oil sector. So each country 229 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 1: in this Black night category has its own motivation to 230 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:59,640 Speaker 1: engage with those countries. The US and the EU are 231 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:03,840 Speaker 1: much more able to police shipping lanes when it goes 232 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 1: into the traditional trade routes. Russian around have created these 233 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 1: alternative trade routes that are in sort of friendlier waters 234 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:16,160 Speaker 1: but also rely on over land routes. What ability does 235 00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:21,000 Speaker 1: the West have to control or limit the transport of 236 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 1: goods over these new routes. I think it depends on 237 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:28,960 Speaker 1: the commodity. So when we talk about oil, the sanctions 238 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:32,720 Speaker 1: the oil embargo only concerned seaboard and oil shipments, so 239 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 1: they don't talk about anything that goes through landline routes. 240 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:39,840 Speaker 1: So here, by default it's not part of that design. 241 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 1: When it comes to seaboard shipments. Here the asymmetrical dependence 242 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:51,080 Speaker 1: of Russia on Western insurance comes in because about of 243 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:56,880 Speaker 1: insurance on for big oil tankers come from places like London. 244 00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:01,600 Speaker 1: So it's relatively easy to implement because you have these 245 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:05,600 Speaker 1: nodes of dependence that you can exercise. You can leverage 246 00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:10,159 Speaker 1: against Russia and you can police it in coordination with 247 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:14,280 Speaker 1: those insurance companies who have been heavily engaged in the 248 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:19,080 Speaker 1: design of that oil embargo and the price gap. Overall, 249 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:22,560 Speaker 1: we have to say that there are clear limitations when 250 00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 1: it comes to enforcement. The US is obviously a big 251 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:30,159 Speaker 1: elephant here. It has much more capacity, expertise and experience 252 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 1: with that. Us IS is tracing that that development. It 253 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:39,840 Speaker 1: has backed up its capacity information sharing. They have also 254 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:44,359 Speaker 1: now created sanctions Envoy who would police all of the 255 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 1: sanctions or convention. So a lot has changed in the 256 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 1: EU when it comes to sanctions enforcement, because that's really 257 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:54,119 Speaker 1: the do main, big game now for Brussels to enforce. 258 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:58,240 Speaker 1: But ultimately we have to keep our expectations throughout the 259 00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:02,240 Speaker 1: modest because it's impossible to track all sanctions or convention. 260 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:06,159 Speaker 1: We're already seeing a big increase in the number of 261 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:09,280 Speaker 1: ships and number of training shipments going along these new routes. 262 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 1: Is there a danger that the sanctions could work a 263 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 1: little too well, that Russia and run other countries create 264 00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:21,800 Speaker 1: an entirely new trading arrangement that cuts out the West 265 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 1: and therefore they no longer fear being cut out by 266 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:30,800 Speaker 1: the West. So these countries again they are dependent on 267 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:35,360 Speaker 1: stood countries. So a large majority of these stood countries 268 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:39,200 Speaker 1: has now been excluded with sanctions. So what they can 269 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 1: do together is rather limited. They can't substitute that loss, 270 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:47,679 Speaker 1: that trade that has been lost with being decoupling from 271 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 1: the West. So we're talking about some smaller percentage of 272 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:55,720 Speaker 1: what can be substitute, what can be alleviated, but they 273 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:59,720 Speaker 1: will never be hundred two. Is there a game of survival. 274 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:02,000 Speaker 1: It's not a game of thriving, right, They're not going 275 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 1: to thrive on that. There won't be much economic growth 276 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:08,160 Speaker 1: and that, but they will survive. Their economy will be smaller, 277 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 1: the economic pie will be much narrower, and that will 278 00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 1: be maybe fine. There will be aligned with the overall decoupling, 279 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:21,200 Speaker 1: with overall isolation of their economies, but that's not the 280 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:25,200 Speaker 1: striving economies we're talking about. Dr Maria Shagina, thanks so 281 00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:27,320 Speaker 1: much for taking the time to talk to me. Thank 282 00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:30,440 Speaker 1: you very much. We'll be right back after the break. 283 00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 1: I'm back now with my colleagues Goldar Mota Ali and 284 00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:48,520 Speaker 1: Jonathan Tyrone. Gonner and Jonathan. We spoke earlier about some 285 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,760 Speaker 1: of the goods that are moving along this trade route, 286 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:55,720 Speaker 1: things like microchips on one hand, and drones and the 287 00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:58,479 Speaker 1: other obviously two very different kinds of products, but products 288 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 1: that couldn't move if this new trade route weren't in place. 289 00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:05,440 Speaker 1: What are some of the other goods that are now 290 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 1: being redirected along this new trade route. There's been a 291 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,640 Speaker 1: radget deal signed in the last you know, six months. 292 00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:18,119 Speaker 1: There's been a medical products, pharmaceuticals, turbines, industrial products. Another 293 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:24,919 Speaker 1: big one is food and agricultural products wheat, barley, other grains, cooking, oils. 294 00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:28,880 Speaker 1: These all commodities have obviously been heavily affected by Russia's 295 00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:33,639 Speaker 1: invasion of Ukraine, and Iranian ships are some of the 296 00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:39,240 Speaker 1: most kind of prolific taking up Russian wheat and grains 297 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:41,520 Speaker 1: in the Black Sea, and some of that is finding 298 00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:44,960 Speaker 1: its way already over that trade route. So part of 299 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 1: this is run getting goods into Russian, Russia getting into around. 300 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:53,359 Speaker 1: But the larger desire is also to move goods from 301 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 1: both of these countries and sell to other nations. What 302 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:00,080 Speaker 1: are the country's buying because they need buyers for this 303 00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:03,479 Speaker 1: in each of the buyers for these goods risk incurring 304 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:05,880 Speaker 1: the wrath of the EU and the US on their own. 305 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:09,280 Speaker 1: So how is that working well? India designed a deal 306 00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 1: to transport twelve million tons of green over this route, 307 00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,880 Speaker 1: and obviously India has a strategic interest in Chabahar because 308 00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:20,240 Speaker 1: they were one of the principal financiers on India and Chabahar. 309 00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 1: I think, you know, it's worth also pointing out that 310 00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 1: that investment plan has lagged behind quite a lot. It's 311 00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:32,000 Speaker 1: been delayed by a good few years, and that's partly 312 00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:37,000 Speaker 1: because of again sanctions. And even though Jonathan mentioned this 313 00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:40,639 Speaker 1: very important point that Chabahar Port is exempt from U 314 00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 1: S sanctions, India has still been very reluctant to kind 315 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:47,280 Speaker 1: of roll up its sleeves and really get started on 316 00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:50,199 Speaker 1: that investment. And one of the reasons is because there 317 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:52,840 Speaker 1: are other sanctions that it can't violate. So there are 318 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:57,040 Speaker 1: financial sanctions that affect Iran's financial and banking sector, which 319 00:21:57,119 --> 00:22:01,119 Speaker 1: means that it's very difficult for countries to try for money. So, 320 00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:04,000 Speaker 1: for instance, if India wants to make this investment and 321 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,960 Speaker 1: it needs to kind of like needs to move money 322 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:10,600 Speaker 1: from India to Iran, it's very very difficult to do 323 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 1: that while sanctions are still in place. Those sanctions on 324 00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:18,439 Speaker 1: Iran's access to banking facilities and financial transactions internationally are 325 00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:23,359 Speaker 1: still in place. The government of the Islamic Republic has 326 00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:28,360 Speaker 1: always wanted to kind of maintain a very pragmatic approach 327 00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:32,399 Speaker 1: to who it trades with because it has no trade 328 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:36,040 Speaker 1: relationship with the United States. It's trade relationship with Europe 329 00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:40,679 Speaker 1: and the EU specifically, you know, has been very healthy 330 00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,720 Speaker 1: and strong at times, but obviously in the past few 331 00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:46,879 Speaker 1: years it's been pretty bad. And now there's been a 332 00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:50,880 Speaker 1: very deliberate, concerted effort by the hardline administration that's run 333 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:56,639 Speaker 1: by Ibrahim Race, who's this very ultra conservative cleric, to 334 00:22:56,880 --> 00:23:01,240 Speaker 1: to kind of turn east in Iran. In parlance, that means, 335 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:05,800 Speaker 1: let's work with China and Russia and countries in the region, 336 00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:08,399 Speaker 1: like smaller countries and smaller markets in the region that 337 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:12,919 Speaker 1: they have easy geographic access to where they can easily 338 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:19,360 Speaker 1: circumvent sanctions. This administration, led by Race seems much more 339 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:24,399 Speaker 1: content to kind of focus on Moscow and even to 340 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,359 Speaker 1: in a lesser extent, Beijing. I mean, you know, Iran 341 00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:33,640 Speaker 1: had this big twenty five year, multibillion dollar long term 342 00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:37,320 Speaker 1: strategic investment plan with China, which was a big story 343 00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:40,000 Speaker 1: at the time. We don't hear anything about that anymore. 344 00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,840 Speaker 1: It's totally kind of just sort of disappeared off the radar, 345 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:48,840 Speaker 1: and Russia has kind of come to replace China. Having 346 00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:54,040 Speaker 1: said that, obviously China, for anyone that produces oil, is 347 00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 1: a big deal. Like, you know, China is the one 348 00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:58,400 Speaker 1: country that's always going to be there for you, that's 349 00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:02,840 Speaker 1: always going to be hungry for crude oil. And another 350 00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:06,720 Speaker 1: weird and kind of interesting aspect to this whole relationship 351 00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:10,440 Speaker 1: is that since Russia was sanctioned by the US and 352 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,120 Speaker 1: the EU to the extent that it has been, it's 353 00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:17,080 Speaker 1: kind of now entered this market that Iran sort of 354 00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 1: dominated and monopolized, which was a market for sanctioned oil, 355 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:25,520 Speaker 1: and the only customer in that market is China officially, 356 00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:29,720 Speaker 1: And now Iran finds itself in this position where it 357 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,960 Speaker 1: both wants to kind of totally kind of thrown its 358 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,879 Speaker 1: a lot with Russia economically, but it's also aware of 359 00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:39,240 Speaker 1: the fact that Russia is now moving into this market 360 00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:42,320 Speaker 1: that it's kind of like had to itself. I spoke 361 00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:46,159 Speaker 1: earlier with Dr Maria sha you know, who said that 362 00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:50,840 Speaker 1: despite all the efforts to build this alternative trade route 363 00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:55,000 Speaker 1: to essentially replace trade with the West, it won't be 364 00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:58,240 Speaker 1: enough that they can subsist on it. That in a crisis, 365 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,400 Speaker 1: it's enough to just get them through. But it's enough too, 366 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:04,800 Speaker 1: as she put it, survive but not thrive. When you 367 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 1: look down the road in this agreement five years, ten 368 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:10,680 Speaker 1: years from now, what do you see. Do you see 369 00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:13,359 Speaker 1: this as something that becomes durable or something that is 370 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:19,960 Speaker 1: a relationship of convenience that dissolves when things change? Well, 371 00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:22,159 Speaker 1: I mean, I guess you can never have enough redundancy 372 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:25,160 Speaker 1: in international trade, and so you want to build redundant 373 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:29,159 Speaker 1: trade routes, particularly if you're a sanctioned country, And the 374 00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:34,040 Speaker 1: fact that you can ship then prohibited material like drones, 375 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:39,280 Speaker 1: like missiles, like explosives without being detected makes this particularly 376 00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:42,639 Speaker 1: convenient in time of war. It's not gonna replace the 377 00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:46,720 Speaker 1: workhorse trade routes going through the Black Sea and down 378 00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:50,960 Speaker 1: the Suez Canal with massive grain ship mints to you know, 379 00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:54,440 Speaker 1: the Middle East, But in a pinch, when India wants 380 00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:57,560 Speaker 1: that twelve million tons of grain and has booked capacity 381 00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:02,560 Speaker 1: across Iranian railways might come in handy. I'm kind of 382 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,960 Speaker 1: quite pessimistic actually in the long term, I think because 383 00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:09,640 Speaker 1: Iran and Russia don't have a great track record when 384 00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:14,600 Speaker 1: it comes to kind of long term agreements. My sense 385 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,159 Speaker 1: and perception is this is much more of a relationship 386 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:20,840 Speaker 1: of convenience for Russia, and it's a relationship of absolute 387 00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:24,439 Speaker 1: necessity for Iran, and I think that's where there's an 388 00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:29,760 Speaker 1: essential imbalance. Iran doesn't have the kind of investment clout 389 00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:35,919 Speaker 1: and capital needed to fund these massive infrastructure projects nowhere 390 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:40,719 Speaker 1: near as much as Russia still has. Politically, the Islamic 391 00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,760 Speaker 1: Republic is under a huge amount of pressure right now 392 00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:47,040 Speaker 1: at home, and the more it seems to come under 393 00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:50,040 Speaker 1: that kind of pressure, the safer it seems to feel 394 00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:55,320 Speaker 1: floating closer or just drifting much closer towards Moscow, because 395 00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:59,119 Speaker 1: Putin is in a similar situation. But my question is 396 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:01,280 Speaker 1: how long is PU seeming to be in that situation? 397 00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,280 Speaker 1: For how much longer is Russia generally going to be 398 00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:07,000 Speaker 1: in this situation given the way that the war and 399 00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:12,360 Speaker 1: their invasion of Ukraine is going Goldermata Valley, Jonathan Tyrone, 400 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:14,680 Speaker 1: thanks so much for talking to me you today, Thanks 401 00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:18,480 Speaker 1: for the invitation. Thank you very much. You can read 402 00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:22,920 Speaker 1: more from Golder, Matta Vali and Jonathan Tyrone at bloomberg 403 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:25,600 Speaker 1: dot com. Thanks for listening to us here at the 404 00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:28,760 Speaker 1: Big Take, the Daily podcast from Bloomberg, and I heart Radio. 405 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,680 Speaker 1: For more shows from My Heart Radio, visit the Heart 406 00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:35,600 Speaker 1: Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen. Read Today's 407 00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,680 Speaker 1: story and subscribe to our daily newsletter at bloomberg dot com. 408 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 1: Slash Big Take and we'd love to hear from you. 409 00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:44,600 Speaker 1: Email us with questions or comments to Big Take at 410 00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:49,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot net. The supervising producer of The Big Take 411 00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:54,080 Speaker 1: is Vicky Bergolina, Our senior producer is Katherine Pink. Our 412 00:27:54,119 --> 00:28:00,840 Speaker 1: producer is and associate producer is ski By Alam si 413 00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:05,560 Speaker 1: Y is our engineer. Original music by Leo Sidrin. I'm 414 00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:08,640 Speaker 1: West Cansova. We'll be back tomorrow with another Big Take. 415 00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:14,480 Speaker 1: H