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Speaker 1: He's the Drive with Dale Lolly and Matt Williamson show

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Speaker 1: on your twenty four to seven home of the Black

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Speaker 1: and Gold Steelers Nation Radio. Welcome back.

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Speaker 2: I am Dale LOLLI, he is Matt Williamson, and this

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Speaker 2: is the Drive on Steelers Nation Radio. And Matt Mike

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Speaker 2: Clay puts out this is largely through a fantasy football perspective,

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Speaker 2: but he puts out his projections. It's a thing on

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Speaker 2: ESPN dot com here, So I wanted to dig into

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Speaker 2: this a little bit. And this also ties in with

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Speaker 2: the scheduling and all the other stuff. We've talked a

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Speaker 2: little bit about this over the last few shows that

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Speaker 2: we've done. But he has projections here I want I

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Speaker 2: want you to I'm going to give you his projections

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Speaker 2: for these players for the Steelers, and you tell me

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Speaker 2: if that would be on par with what you think

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Speaker 2: or if that would be a disappointment.

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Speaker 1: For that player.

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Speaker 2: So for Kenny Pickett, he has fifteen games this year. Okay,

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Speaker 2: I assume you never give anyone seventeen Probably not, yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean okay, So fifteen games completes three hundred and

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Speaker 2: twenty three out of five hundred and one passes. So

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Speaker 2: about sixty four percent of my UPG math sixty four

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Speaker 2: and a half percent, give or take three thousand, four

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty six passing yards, twenty touchdown passes, twelve interceptions.

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Speaker 1: Twenty to twelve. Yeah, I don't think it's horrible. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think they'll be run heavy. I think the defense

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Speaker 1: will allow them to be run heavy. I think that

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Speaker 1: they'll run the ball well. Did I'll still go over

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Speaker 1: on touchdowns and yardage, but I don't think these are

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Speaker 1: crazy talk.

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Speaker 2: No, I think that's a nice progression. Yeah, you know

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Speaker 2: for the young quarterback. He also has him for two

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Speaker 2: hundred and sixty eight rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns,

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Speaker 2: so twenty three total touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: I'll buy that. I may even go slightly over on

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Speaker 1: the rushing yards.

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Speaker 2: I think, I think, I think, yeah, I think he

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Speaker 2: finishes with more rushing yards than that to sixty eight.

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Speaker 2: I mean you're talking that's only that's not even twenty

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Speaker 2: yards rushing per game.

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Speaker 1: Right, I mean he said fifteen games. I mean if

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Speaker 1: you assuming if he really does play seventeen, he'll be

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Speaker 1: maybe a hundred yards more than that. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So, and then you look look at the projections for

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Speaker 2: Mitch Trubisky. Obviously, if Pickett plays fifteen games, he's got

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Speaker 2: two games for Mitch Trubisky forty five of sixty nine

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Speaker 2: for four hundred and forty three yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions,

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Speaker 2: twenty seven rushing yards.

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Speaker 1: Seems like quality backup numbers, which I think he is

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Speaker 1: so all told.

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Speaker 2: You're looking at just under four thousand passing yards and

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Speaker 2: twenty three touchdown passes for the Steelers twenty three.

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Speaker 1: Did you say, yeah, I think I'll go over on

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Speaker 1: total passing yards.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's for seventeen games. At four thousand, you're just

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Speaker 2: looking at it just a little over two hundred yards

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Speaker 2: passing per game. I think they I think they probably

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Speaker 2: do go over that a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean I don't think they'll have age

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Speaker 1: three hundred dards game or two seventy five.

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Speaker 2: Or the three point fifty that Lamar wants to.

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Speaker 1: He's threw over two thousand more than these guys. Right.

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Speaker 1: The passing touchdowns I'm in on though, because I think

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Speaker 1: there'll be a lot of plunge touchdowns. I like that

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Speaker 1: he gave pick at three rushing touchdowns. I could see

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Speaker 1: Nausea getting the double digits Warren's gonna get a few,

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Speaker 1: you know, Connor Hayward making a shovel pass or something

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Speaker 1: goofy like I could see them pounding the ball in

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Speaker 1: from in within the five.

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Speaker 2: Well we say that and listen to these rushing totals. Okay,

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Speaker 2: So for Najia Harris, he has First of all, he

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Speaker 2: only has him playing fourteen games.

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Speaker 1: I would bet running backs you have to do that.

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Speaker 2: He probably, I hear you, but he is at I

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Speaker 2: mean he plays every game.

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Speaker 1: I no, I now.

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Speaker 2: Uh So in four fourteen games, he has him for

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Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty three carries, one thousand and sixteen yards,

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Speaker 2: six rushing touchdowns, forty three catches for two hundred and

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Speaker 2: seventy six yards and two more scores.

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Speaker 1: I'm going over on that. Would you be happy with

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Speaker 1: forty three catches up from last year?

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Speaker 2: Well, for fourteen games, that's about three per game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that part I thought was encouraging, and I'm hoping

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Speaker 1: that's the case and we hard up on that a lot.

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Speaker 1: I'll definitely take over six rushing touchdowns, yeah, especially play

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Speaker 1: seventeen games. Of course, he doesn't do yards per carry

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Speaker 1: or any of that stuff. Said, Well, that's about four

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Speaker 1: yards per carry, Yeah, yeah, which is he's never going

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Speaker 1: to be a high yards per carry guy in my opinion.

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Speaker 1: I mean he's ever going to be five. No, I mean,

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Speaker 1: could he be four to two this year with better blocking? Certain? Yeah? Sure?

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 2: For Jlem Warren, ninety four carries for four hundred and

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Speaker 2: eighteen yards, twenty six catches, one hundred and ninety yards

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Speaker 2: in a touchdown. He hasn't scored two rushing touchdowns. I

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Speaker 2: like the twenty six catches. I mean, if you get

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Speaker 2: seventy catches from your top two backs, give or take, yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think that's moving the football efficiently.

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Speaker 1: And both those guys are good at it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, No, for sure. For Anthony McFarland, who's right now

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Speaker 2: is his number three, thirty four carries one hundred and

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Speaker 2: forty six yards. That's a nice average, one touchdown, six

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Speaker 2: catches for another forty four yards.

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Speaker 1: It sounds reasonable. I mean again, none of these will

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Speaker 1: work that way because someone will get hurt and McFarlane

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Speaker 1: will be active for twelve games as the two, or

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Speaker 1: he won't make the team or I mean, like right, right,

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Speaker 1: But I mean if you told me that's what he

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Speaker 1: would do, and that's the way he'd be used.

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Speaker 2: That adds up perfectly. You know, some of these national

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Speaker 2: guys look at a team and don't think that way.

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Speaker 2: And I think that he has the running back touches

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Speaker 2: and balance pretty well hit the thing that he doesn't

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Speaker 2: have to me. So the overall running back total for

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Speaker 2: rushing yards here. Now he does have another obviously with

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Speaker 2: Pickett the quarterbacks, the quarterbacks having about three hundred rushing

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Speaker 2: yards and he has about one hundred rushing yards for

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Speaker 2: the wide receivers. For the running backs themselves, three hundred

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Speaker 2: and ninety carries for one thousand, six hundred and seventeen yards,

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Speaker 2: ten touchdowns, seventy seven catches five hundred and twenty four yards,

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Speaker 2: and another three touchdowns. Unless we forget this team averaged

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Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty yards rushing per game in the

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Speaker 2: second half of last year.

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Speaker 1: See that's where I was going to like. That gets

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Speaker 1: to six seventeen from the running backs. Let's just call

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Speaker 1: it two thousand when you throw in quarterback and wide

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Speaker 1: receiver rushes. Right, that's under one hundred and eighteen rushing

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Speaker 1: yards per game, right total as a team, I think

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Speaker 1: they're closer to one thirty.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think they run for about twenty

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Speaker 2: two hundred yards.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, Yeah, right, another way of putting it.

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Speaker 1: I think the run blocking will be better. I do too.

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Speaker 2: And I think that they've I think they've Everything that

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Speaker 2: they've done this offseason is screaming we're going to run

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Speaker 2: the football.

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Speaker 1: Yes, yes, so we're going. They showed last year they

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Speaker 1: didn't get away from it, you know, I mean, they certainly,

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Speaker 1: and it was a recipe. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I'll go

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Speaker 1: over on that. I mean, one thing that hurts them

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Speaker 1: is I don't think I don't see a whole lot

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Speaker 1: of seventy yard runs.

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean, if they if you see Anthony McFarland

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Speaker 2: out there a little bit more and Jalen Warren has

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Speaker 2: some juice, I think there's there's a little more. Put

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Speaker 2: it this way, replacing it Benny Snell with Anthony McFarland's

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Speaker 2: just if that's what if that's what happens. If even

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Speaker 2: if it's just a let's say three carries per game,

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Speaker 2: but carries a year fifty carry, he's gonna break something.

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Speaker 1: Mm hmm. Agreed. But I'll lead back or.

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Speaker 2: Right now, you're not gonna You're not gonna have a

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Speaker 2: bunch of them, right, right, But Jalen Warren has some

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Speaker 2: juice there as well.

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Speaker 1: He does, so I could see if.

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Speaker 2: You get more carries from Warren, you get more carries

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Speaker 2: from McFarland.

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Speaker 1: That's going to.

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Speaker 2: Give you more opportunity I think to break off some

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Speaker 2: longer runs.

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Speaker 1: But that's my point there. No, that's fair.

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Speaker 2: A wide receiver or Deonta A. Johnson one hundred and

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Speaker 2: twenty seven targets, seventy nine catches for nine hundred and

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Speaker 2: seventy one yards, four touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: I'm glad didn't give him zero touchdowns. That's in fifteen games.

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Speaker 1: By the way, I think he's a thousand yard receiver though,

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Speaker 1: Well he's just under that.

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Speaker 2: If he plays all seventeen, right, then you know the

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Speaker 2: numbers extrapolate. If you do that over seventeen games, it's

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Speaker 2: probably about ninety catches for.

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Speaker 1: You know, eleven hundred yards, right, Okay, I guess I'll

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Speaker 1: react to this more once we talk about the other

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Speaker 1: receivers and see how he divvys up the targets and

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Speaker 1: touchdowns and whatnot. Yeah, that's the interesting way to thing

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Speaker 1: to look at. Yeah, I still think Johnson's going to

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Speaker 1: be the target leader.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I do too, he's your chain mover. Yeah, George Pickens,

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Speaker 2: same thing. Fifteen games, which seems to be about.

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Speaker 1: The norm by what you do for receivers. Ye.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, ninety nine targets, sixty two catches for eight hundred

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Speaker 2: and five yards and four touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: My initial response is I'll take over on four touchdowns. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I don't know that I would with DJ, you know,

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Speaker 1: with you with Johnson, but I definitely would with Pickens.

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Speaker 1: I bet his I'm trying to do math and talk here,

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Speaker 1: but I would bet yards per catch Pickens is higher

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Speaker 1: than Johnson. Yeah, yeah, and he is. I can do

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Speaker 1: that real quick here. Eight oh five divided by sixty.

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Speaker 2: Two is it's about thirteen yards a catch.

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Speaker 1: And Johnson is at twelve to two twelve three. So

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Speaker 1: I bet that discrepancy's a little wider, though than one

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Speaker 1: yard difference per catch. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: But would you be happy if Pickens gets basically one

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Speaker 2: hundre targets?

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't be thrilled with under eighteen hundred yards between

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Speaker 1: the two of them. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Well, I remember now we're talking that he has them

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Speaker 2: both playing fifteen games.

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Speaker 1: I I know, right, because one of them get hurt

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Speaker 1: week one and you get nothing. I mean, right, kind

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Speaker 1: of projections are weird, you know, right. I mean you've

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Speaker 1: heard my argument about over unders, like you under you

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Speaker 1: bet every under, I bet you win because who plays

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Speaker 1: the projected number of games? Right? I might?

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Speaker 2: I might go over with pickings on maybe across the board.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, does he have Robinson or go deeper?

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Speaker 2: Oh?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he goes all the way through. Oh okay for Robinson.

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Speaker 2: He's got him playing fourteen games, fifty five targets, thirty

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Speaker 2: six catches for three hundred and sixty six yards, and

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Speaker 2: three touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: That sounds minuscule. I mean, Alan Robinson was a pro

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Speaker 1: bowler and a top ten receiver and you only get

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Speaker 1: three hundred and sixty six yards out of the guy.

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Speaker 1: But I don't think that's gonna I think there's gonna

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Speaker 1: be some a lot of them be on third downs,

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Speaker 1: you know. I like that he got three touchdowns. You know,

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Speaker 1: slant in the middle of the field, move the chains.

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean he's we've already established he gets seventy

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Speaker 2: seven catches for five hundred and twenty four yards to

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Speaker 2: the running backs.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, the you've only the pie is only

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Speaker 1: so big. That's what I say, Like, when you start

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Speaker 1: adding up projections, it can't add up to six thousand

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Speaker 1: passing yards.

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Speaker 2: Like that's the one nice thing about this is everything

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Speaker 2: adds up.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yea, yeah, yeah, So I mean he's just many

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Speaker 1: times and yeah.

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Speaker 2: He probably ran it through a computer, you know all

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Speaker 2: that stuff.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, Like if he told me today, well, Alan

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Speaker 1: Robinson of more than three hundred and sixty six receiving

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Speaker 1: yards next year, I would say yes. But everyone's always

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Speaker 1: tempted to say the over It's real easy to envision it.

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Speaker 1: One game with eighty yards, a couple with forty before

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Speaker 1: you know you're there. Yeah, but that's not how projection.

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Speaker 1: His work.

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Speaker 2: For Calvin Austin has him playing fifteen games twenty one targets,

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Speaker 2: fourteen for one fifty nine in a touchdown.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I mean twenty one targets. To be is logical.

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Speaker 1: There's a chance he gets under that, you know, I mean,

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Speaker 1: just to be a realist. Yeah, but that one touchdown

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Speaker 1: might be an eighty yard er, right right.

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Speaker 2: Gunnerol Chevsky six catches seventy six yards, and then Miles

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Speaker 2: Boyce in three catches thirty eight yards.

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Speaker 1: He didn't do Miller though he did not do Miller. Okay,

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Speaker 1: fair enough, I don't have Gunner makes team.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, somebody's gotta return at tight end position. And

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Speaker 2: this is the other part of the equation here for this.

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Speaker 2: So basically he has Firemouth as their number three target guy.

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Speaker 1: I agree with that. I think he out targets Robinson.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he has him with eighty eight targets, sixty catches

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Speaker 2: for six hundred and fifty yards, and four touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: He exceeded that. If you just look at his healthy games.

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Speaker 1: Wasn't there two games that he had the foot that

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Speaker 1: he did like very little and yeah, yeah, napcount was

258
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Speaker 1: really low. I think it was two games. But if

259
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Speaker 1: you look at the twelve, thirteen to fourteen whatever, it

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Speaker 1: was healthy games. His yards for route run targets, they

261
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Speaker 1: weren't Chelsea level, but they weren't far off. He weren't

262
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Speaker 1: far off. Yeah, I'm going to put him that.

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Speaker 2: It puts him because he did it, did this for

264
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Speaker 2: the whole league. So that would put him in terms

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Speaker 2: of Fantasy PPR tight end position at number eight, number

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Speaker 2: eight in the league.

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Speaker 1: Like who's you look at the list, like who's six,

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Speaker 1: It doesn't it doesn't say, yeah, Okay, this is just

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Speaker 1: probably be the eighth tight end drafted whenever we do

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Speaker 1: fantasy stuff. I mean, he'll go behind like godd Or

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Speaker 1: and Hawk, but I think I'll take the over on

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Speaker 1: those projections.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think if he gets eighty eight targets. First

274
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Speaker 2: of all, I think if he gets eighty eight targets,

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Speaker 2: he catches more than sixty of them.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not trying to like make a big splash,

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Speaker 1: but I thought he was our best offensive player last

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Speaker 1: year and looked like a star in the making.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Connor Hayward. He lists Connor Hayward as a tight end,

280
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Speaker 2: which he shouldn't be, but he dies still Listen here,

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Speaker 2: he has him twenty two targets, fifteen catches, one hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty seven yards in one touchdown. He also has

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Speaker 2: him for four carries for fifteen yards. He should realistically

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Speaker 2: be listed with the running backs here.

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Speaker 1: He probably gets more than four carries. You think he

286
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Speaker 1: catches fifteen balls next year? Yeah, I think so. I

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Speaker 1: mean Austin's at fourteen, who has more catches next year? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: About saying yeah, not the same doesn't sound like much

289
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Speaker 1: and it isn't, But that's still you know, to a game.

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Speaker 1: That's a contributor.

291
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Speaker 2: Darnell Washington sixteen targets, eleven catches for one hundred and

292
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Speaker 2: nineteen yards and one touchdown.

293
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Speaker 1: I think he's gonna throwing the ball more than sixteen times.

294
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Speaker 1: We'll see, Yeah, But I mean all these things are

295
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Speaker 1: easy to say over. I'm gonna get that. I'm not

296
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Speaker 1: giving Mike a hard time. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: And then Zach Gentry five targets, four catches, thirty four

298
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Speaker 2: yards fair enough.

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Speaker 1: I mean his will go his will go down from

300
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Speaker 1: last year. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So if we look at the wide receiver production, we

302
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Speaker 2: forgot to do that for their for their wide receiver

303
00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:44,320
Speaker 2: room twenty or two hundred catches on three hundred and

304
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Speaker 2: eighteen targets, two four hundred and fourteen yards, thirteen touchdown catches.

305
00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:54,240
Speaker 1: The touchdown catches will be way up, way up. How

306
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Speaker 1: many way with the guardage aet.

307
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Speaker 2: Twenty four hundred, just over twenty four hundred.

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00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:05,439
Speaker 1: Seems realistic. Yeah. For the tight end.

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Speaker 2: For the tight end position, one hundred and thirty two

310
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Speaker 2: total targets, ninety catches, nine hundred and sixty one yards,

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Speaker 2: and six touchdowns.

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00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:17,639
Speaker 1: That would be near the top of the league. Ninety

313
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Speaker 1: tight end catches. Yeah, I think you'd take that. Yeah,

314
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Speaker 1: I mean, and it could be big.

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Speaker 2: I mean when we're talking, when we're rolling through those,

316
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Speaker 2: you're like, well, I think Fiar Moose is better than that.

317
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Speaker 2: I think Washington is better than Could they get more

318
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Speaker 2: than ninety catches out of their tight end room?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean if they really fifty percent of their

320
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Speaker 1: snaps in twelve personnel or more, I mean they anyway

321
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Speaker 1: snaps Gentry played after the Claypool trade, it was a lot. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if they'll were far away from those numbers. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: The other interesting thing about that we can we can

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Speaker 2: look at. He has fantasy numbers here for the defense

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Speaker 2: as well. I'll give you some numbers here on some guys.

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Speaker 2: He has Alex high Smith with the best projections for

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Speaker 2: sack totals for the Steelers next year at ten point eight.

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Speaker 1: I can't agree with that. T J. Watt comes in

329
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Speaker 1: at ten point four. I mean, I think double digit

330
00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:22,440
Speaker 1: sacks for high Smith is attainable and a reasonable projection,

331
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Speaker 1: and but to have him out sacked TJ sounds a

332
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Speaker 1: little crazy.

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Speaker 2: There must be Well, he has a snap count here

334
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Speaker 2: for them as well, so he has high high Smith

335
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Speaker 2: playing nine hundred and fifty snaps. What playing nine oh six.

336
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Speaker 2: That's basically a game's.

337
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Speaker 1: Word for those odds. Yeah, I'll take TJ over ten

338
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Speaker 1: point four.

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Speaker 2: I know that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. Uh.

341
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Speaker 2: He has Cam Hayward at seven hundred and eighty eight

342
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Speaker 2: snaps and having seventy tackles and six sacks.

343
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Speaker 1: I hope his snap numbers go down a little bit,

344
00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:01,840
Speaker 1: so his back of football card production might go down

345
00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:02,199
Speaker 1: a little bit.

346
00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:04,160
Speaker 2: Let's put it so, the guy who plays the most

347
00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:09,280
Speaker 2: defensive snaps according to plays projections is Mika Fitzpatrick with

348
00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:10,800
Speaker 2: one and twenty.

349
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Speaker 1: Five, which is who I would pick as well.

350
00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:18,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, pretty much. Assume that's just about every defensive snap.

351
00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:21,679
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I mean secondary guys don't get beat up

352
00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:24,120
Speaker 1: as much. They play more snaps as in general, there's

353
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Speaker 1: not a linebacker that's Fred Warner on this team that

354
00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:32,040
Speaker 1: would be in that competition. The corners are still up

355
00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:33,560
Speaker 1: in the air while they're playing time we'll get the

356
00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 1: beat out, so it'd have to be making.

357
00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:40,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, Ogan Joby has six hundred and forty seven snaps,

358
00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:43,880
Speaker 2: two point six sacks, forty eight tackles.

359
00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,359
Speaker 1: Okay, I'd hope for a little more, but that doesn't

360
00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:48,719
Speaker 1: sound unrealistic.

361
00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:52,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, looking at the defensive line as a whole, he

362
00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:55,080
Speaker 2: has that group coming out of the season with twelve

363
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:57,159
Speaker 2: and a half sacks and.

364
00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:59,440
Speaker 1: He's not counting Watton obviously.

365
00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:01,760
Speaker 2: No their edge for the edge he's got the Hes

366
00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:04,440
Speaker 2: got their edge rushers at twenty three point eight sacks.

367
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Speaker 1: I'd go over that. I'd go over that. I'd go

368
00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:11,600
Speaker 1: over the collective defensive front number.

369
00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:16,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, overall that would be uh thirty five thirty six

370
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:18,480
Speaker 2: sacks basically out of your defensive front.

371
00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:22,320
Speaker 1: I'll take the over I'm going over on that. So

372
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:26,639
Speaker 1: sack question for you, if I gave you TJ or

373
00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:29,840
Speaker 1: the field to lead the Steelers in sacks this year,

374
00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:33,359
Speaker 1: which obviously is a durability question, and Ken easily answered,

375
00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:35,160
Speaker 1: which side would you put here? I'll take TJ.

376
00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:38,040
Speaker 2: I would get it because he could do it in

377
00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:43,639
Speaker 2: twelve Yeah, right. You know, looking at that linebacker position,

378
00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:46,159
Speaker 2: we've talked a lot about that. He has Cole Holkom

379
00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:49,440
Speaker 2: playing nine hundred and seventeen snaps, one hundred and thirty

380
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:53,120
Speaker 2: four tackles, one point eight sacks, point five interceptions.

381
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:57,440
Speaker 1: I mean, I think he projects as certainly the snap

382
00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:01,800
Speaker 1: leader and everything should allow that didn't follow last year

383
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:05,359
Speaker 1: with the off ball linebackers with splash. Yeah, I mean

384
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 1: it has to be more splash than last year.

385
00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 2: You would think, yeah, well, yeah, absolutely, nowhere to go

386
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:15,760
Speaker 2: but up and Landon Roberts six hundred and forty seven snaps,

387
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:19,120
Speaker 2: ninety six tackles, one point eight sacks, and zero point

388
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:20,480
Speaker 2: two interceptions.

389
00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:23,840
Speaker 1: This is a little unfair to Clay, but I'll go

390
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:27,480
Speaker 1: under on snaps on Roberts. I just think they find

391
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,639
Speaker 1: some other answer, not the instinct, you know. I just

392
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:32,720
Speaker 1: think that story might not be written yet.

393
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 2: The interesting thing about this is the other two inside

394
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 2: backers that he lists, or take Router and Tanner. Muse m, now,

395
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:44,480
Speaker 2: you know whatever, whatever however you want to look at that.

396
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 2: He doesn't know, nor does there the computer. No exactly

397
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:52,880
Speaker 2: how you know what Mark Robinson is. Nobody really does

398
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,720
Speaker 2: envy trying to figure out the third lineback at the

399
00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 2: cornerback position is Patrick.

400
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:02,639
Speaker 1: Day. I didn't put two and two together that the

401
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 1: Steelers new linebacker coach. His name escapes me. He was

402
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:09,280
Speaker 1: a fourth pick in the draft from Lake Forest.

403
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:12,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, coach mus in Seattle head coach news in Seattle,

404
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:13,359
Speaker 2: do you think.

405
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 1: He's more than just a pure special teamer. Do you

406
00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 1: think he may play on the defense some as a

407
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 1: better Marcus Allen? Maybe? Maybe? I mean he's he's athletic.

408
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 1: You know, he was a good linebacker Clemson, who was

409
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 1: third round pick.

410
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:31,879
Speaker 2: He's an athlete, right, Yeah, obviously they they you know

411
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:33,720
Speaker 2: he liked him there, so yeah.

412
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:33,960
Speaker 1: Yeah.

413
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 2: See at quarterback, he's got Patrick Peterson playing the most

414
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:40,440
Speaker 2: snaps of any of the corners at nine hundred and

415
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 2: seventeen sixty sixty tackles, one point eight interceptions.

416
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,160
Speaker 1: I might go over on interceptions based off last year

417
00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:49,840
Speaker 1: in history.

418
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 2: History tells me that he's going to get his hands

419
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:55,760
Speaker 2: on more than one point eight passes and he'll catch him.

420
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 1: Right.

421
00:22:57,480 --> 00:22:59,879
Speaker 2: He's got Levi Wallace at six hundred and forty sevens

422
00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:02,159
Speaker 2: one point eight interceptions.

423
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:05,679
Speaker 1: These are tough, but I'm not sure Wallace will end

424
00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 1: up being a big snap guy when it's all said

425
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:08,080
Speaker 1: and done.

426
00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:10,879
Speaker 2: Well, if Peters is playing this in the slot, Wallace

427
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 2: is going to be out there.

428
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 1: M hm.

429
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:20,440
Speaker 2: He's got Chandon Sullivan third at five hundred and forty

430
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:23,120
Speaker 2: snaps and zero point seven interceptions.

431
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:28,640
Speaker 1: Okay, I bet history shows and Metrics at Analytics say,

432
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 1: don't give rookie cornerbacks a ton of snaps.

433
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, Order comes in with the fourth most snaps

434
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 2: at four hundred and thirty two thirty three tackles in

435
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:42,360
Speaker 2: point eight interceptions.

436
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:45,200
Speaker 1: Like I think we'd all I think we all think

437
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 1: and hope he'll play more snaps than that.

438
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, Nennikello Witherspoon, James Pierre or the other two that

439
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:57,240
Speaker 2: on that list. So overall, he's got the cornerback group

440
00:23:57,320 --> 00:23:59,920
Speaker 2: coming out of this with five point eight interceptions.

441
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:03,800
Speaker 1: You'd hope for more. But that's not terrible. I mean

442
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,159
Speaker 1: hard to come by in today's NFL. They are. They

443
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 1: are way down at the safety position.

444
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 2: I mentioned minca Oney twenty five snaps, one hundred and

445
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 2: five tackles, three point seven interceptions.

446
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 1: It's a big number. I mean, it doesn't sound like

447
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 1: a toime. Oh minke will have at least four picks,

448
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 1: but four picks a good year nowadays.

449
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:26,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, if I had to bet on that one though,

450
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:28,960
Speaker 2: if the Vegas number was three point seven, I'd go over.

451
00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:31,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, agreed.

452
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 2: Demante Kz eight hundred and nine snaps, sixty two tackles,

453
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 2: one point five interceptions.

454
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 1: Quality that's fine.

455
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, Keon O'Neil three hundred seventy eight snaps point seven interceptions,

456
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 2: Trey Norwood two hundred and sixteen snaps point five interceptions.

457
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 1: I'm growing fonder and more open to the fact that

458
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:56,960
Speaker 1: Neil might be playing three to four hundred snaps. I

459
00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:01,399
Speaker 1: thought he might be Marcus Allen three snaps special teamer.

460
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 1: But I think he's going to be part of the

461
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:04,400
Speaker 1: defense and have a role. No, he's a better player

462
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 1: than Marcus Allen. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I thought his roster

463
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:10,440
Speaker 1: spot was the Marcus Allen one, and it's not so.

464
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 2: Overall, two hundred and twenty nine tackles, one sack, and

465
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 2: six and a half interceptions from the safety groom, I

466
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 2: hear you.

467
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 1: The one thing I just discrepancy, but I don't envy

468
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:25,480
Speaker 1: Clay for this at all, is I bet they have

469
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 1: numerous defensive players that play nine hundred or more snaps. Thought, yeah, right, yeah,

470
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:33,159
Speaker 1: but I just don't know who exactly who they were.

471
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 1: I mean, it all balances out, you know. In the end.

472
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 2: We talked last year, we talk Monday actually about the schedule.

473
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 2: He actually breaks down the schedule here with what the

474
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 2: computer model and the computer model comes out with on

475
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 2: the win probabilities on these games.

476
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 1: Oh really, so.

477
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 2: Looking at the schedule and he just has them. We

478
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:55,959
Speaker 2: don't know who's what. You know where the games are

479
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:58,159
Speaker 2: being played, or when the games are being played, you

480
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 2: know where they're being played. So he is just I

481
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:02,239
Speaker 2: don't know how he decided what they listened to how

482
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:05,200
Speaker 2: to list him here, but he had Seattle first visiting

483
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:09,440
Speaker 2: at Seattle forty two percent win probability, Tennessee at home

484
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:11,119
Speaker 2: seventy one percent.

485
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 1: When that's a big number for the NFL, huge number, and.

486
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 2: He basically in the NFL, anything over fifty five percent

487
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 2: gets you in the green on this Okay, just just

488
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 2: looking at that, the Steelers have nine games in the green.

489
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 1: I mean, if you win two thirds of your games,

490
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 1: you're a Hall of Fame coach all day long.

491
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, at Baltimore is thirty seven percent. Fair, Green Bay

492
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 2: at home sixty four percent. New England at home is

493
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:46,400
Speaker 2: fifty eight percent, Cleveland in Cleveland is forty four percent. Yeah,

494
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 2: Baltimore at home is forty five percent.

495
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,440
Speaker 1: Wow, I thought they would be over fifty percent in

496
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 1: that one. Yeah, Well, injections for Baltimore must be good

497
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 1: in his message.

498
00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, Indianapolis at home sixty eight percent, Jacksonville at home.

499
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:08,120
Speaker 1: Fifty seven percent. I can't fight many of these.

500
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 2: At Las Vegas fifty eight percent.

501
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with that.

502
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 2: Arizona at home sixty six percent.

503
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:19,400
Speaker 1: Wow, well, he has no respect for Tennessee none none.

504
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,159
Speaker 2: At Houston sixty five percent.

505
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 1: Well, that's massive for a rose.

506
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 2: San Francisco at home forty five percent.

507
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,160
Speaker 1: I'm sure there's a formula for this, but I wonder

508
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 1: what the point spread is if you're a sixty percent

509
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:37,160
Speaker 1: favored on the road, you know what I mean.

510
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, how about this one. They're in Los Angeles against

511
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 2: the Rams sixty nine percent win probability.

512
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:51,959
Speaker 1: They're awful, I'm very much Wow. I mean you may

513
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 1: have there might be stetson Bennett and yeah, I think

514
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 1: there's a real good chance of that.

515
00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:00,439
Speaker 2: At Cincinnati twenty eight percent. So that's their worst win

516
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:01,360
Speaker 2: odds of the year.

517
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:03,640
Speaker 1: That's probably their hardest game.

518
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 2: Cleveland at home fifty two percent.

519
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 1: I like the chances better than that, but yeah, I

520
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 1: do too.

521
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 2: Uh. And then Cincinnati at home is thirty six percent.

522
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 2: So if you just look again at the at the

523
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 2: games that they are favored by more than fifty five

524
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:24,640
Speaker 2: percent one two, three, four, five, six, seven eight.

525
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 1: That's nine games. Yeah, just sense out and then you

526
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:33,159
Speaker 1: know you'll win seven of them, but you'll win two others.

527
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:33,920
Speaker 1: You will.

528
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:35,879
Speaker 2: You throw the Cleveland game in there, where there are

529
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 2: fifty two percent chance to win at home, that's ten,

530
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 2: you know, and then there's some other games in there

531
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 2: that like the game at home against San Francisco, where's

532
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 2: forty five percent, The game at home against Baltimore is

533
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 2: forty five percent I guess you could get. And then

534
00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 2: even the game at Cleveland is forty four percent.

535
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 1: Right again, I think eight and a half win totals crazy, yeah,

536
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 1: I mean, sounds of it. He thinks they win two

537
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 1: division games, well, I mean, right right now, that that

538
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 1: would be what they are. Well three one of them

539
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 1: is really like two and a half probably, yeah, yeah, But.

540
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 2: It all comes out according to his projected win for

541
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:22,440
Speaker 2: his model nine point one wins.

542
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 1: Which is a pretty big different. I mean, like it

543
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 1: doesn't sound like much. Eight and a half wins versus

544
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 1: nine point one wins doesn't sound like much like dude,

545
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 1: that's you know, a field goal hitting the upright or

546
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 1: going through or missing. Yeah, but it is when these guys,

547
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 1: the football siders Vegas. That's a big difference.

548
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 2: That would be like, don't it's almost a full win. Yeah,

549
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 2: it's like the ninth best versus the seventeenth best in

550
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 2: the league. You know, it's what we talk about when

551
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 2: that when that schedule comes out, why it's so important

552
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 2: where and when you play these teams.

553
00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, like Vegas doesn't project any team over or fourteen

554
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 1: and a half wins, but somebody will win fourteen or

555
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 1: fifteen games here like this.

556
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 2: This this whole thing, the win probabilities may change when

557
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 2: the schedule comes out. Are you playing Are you playing

558
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 2: San Francisco at home in September?

559
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:15,120
Speaker 1: Right?

560
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 2: That might you might actually flip flop that you might

561
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 2: be a fifty five percent with Sam Darnold at quarterback.

562
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 1: One of them is going to be on a short

563
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 1: week on the road, right, you know, are you playing.

564
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 2: Arizona? When are you playing them? You know that's stuff

565
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 2: like that's gonna.

566
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 1: Matter your third straight road game.

567
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, is Kyler in the lineup or is Kyler not

568
00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 2: in the lineup? Well, that makes a huge difference.

569
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 1: And things that nobody could project is is Jordan love

570
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 1: good or Jordan Love bad? Let alone, just day to

571
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 1: day in juries. You know, are you missing your left tackle? Yeah,

572
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 1: of course, right, and you you laid this out. I

573
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 1: think it was Monday, richardson Stroud. I mean, there's rookies,

574
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 1: love rookies, slash unknown quarterbacks. They might be on fire,

575
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 1: they might be horrendous. Right right.

576
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:12,040
Speaker 2: We'll take a little deeper dive in to this Mike

577
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 2: Klay stuff here in the next segment. I wanted to

578
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 2: take a look at this from a little different perspective,

579
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 2: so we'll do that when we come back. You can

580
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 2: now listen to Steelers Nation Radio anytime anywhere through your

581
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 2: smart speaker. Just say Alexa, play Steelers Nation Radio from

582
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:27,120
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583
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 1: Of the rest.

584
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 2: He is Matt Williamson. I am Dale Lallie. You're listening

585
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 2: to the Drive on Steelers Nation Radio. We'll be back

586
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 2: with more right after this