1 00:00:01,440 --> 00:00:05,000 Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcast. 2 00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:08,840 Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these 3 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:28,319 Speaker 2: people over for a second spot. Hello, look the Action 4 00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:31,640 Speaker 2: Network podcast UFC Betting Preview. I'm Sean Zilla joint today 5 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 2: at Billy Word to help you break down the card 6 00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 2: for this weekend in Las Vegas at the UFC Apex. 7 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:40,880 Speaker 2: Canning give you are at best bets, favorite underdogs, top 8 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:43,159 Speaker 2: props and more. And if you'd like to tell some 9 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:44,760 Speaker 2: of the bets that we give out this show, make 10 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:47,279 Speaker 2: sure to find the quick slip link in the podcast 11 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 2: and video descriptions, or go to actionnetwork dot com slash 12 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:54,960 Speaker 2: bet now twelve fight card at the Apex preelimbs at 13 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 2: four pm Eastern Main card. Five fight main card at 14 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 2: seven pm Eastern. Made menel Cop minus two twenty against 15 00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:06,399 Speaker 2: Asou Almabayev at plus one eighty Alma Baya stepping up 16 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:09,679 Speaker 2: in place of Brandon Royval. His fight is minus one 17 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 2: twenty minus one twenty five to go to a decision, 18 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:15,120 Speaker 2: plus one plus one oh five to end inside the distance. 19 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 2: I do lean to the ghost of decision prop in 20 00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 2: this fight, but Billy and I are in agreement that 21 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 2: menel Cop is a good live bet at some point 22 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:26,039 Speaker 2: after the first couple of rounds, after round one, potentially 23 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 2: after round two, and then likelier as we get later 24 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 2: into the fight. Now, both of these guys have been 25 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:33,360 Speaker 2: to the championship rounds before, but regionally not in the 26 00:01:33,440 --> 00:01:36,360 Speaker 2: UFC level. I do want to note flyway fights in 27 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:38,839 Speaker 2: the UFC go to a decision about fifty eight percent 28 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:40,959 Speaker 2: of the time, so getting that minus one twenty minus 29 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 2: one twenty five, they're certainly a slight edge compared. 30 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 3: To the divisional average. 31 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 2: And then just generally speaking, I don't give alma bay 32 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:50,440 Speaker 2: a very much finishing upside in this fight at all, 33 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 2: and Cop the much likelier finisher, much better damage opics. 34 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 2: He is the better striker, Almabayev the better wrestler, but 35 00:01:57,040 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 2: Almabiv is very low volume, doesn't do much with the 36 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 2: takedowns once he actually gets them. So I think this 37 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:07,280 Speaker 2: could be another fight where Cop gets taken down, returns 38 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 2: to his feet, lands the better damage optics once they're backstanding, 39 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 2: but Ken get held down before has been in the past. 40 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 2: I think it's worth noting now Almabayev has shown the 41 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 2: ability or the tendency to slow down later in his fights. 42 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 2: I think Cop coming off of a career best effort 43 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 2: against Bruno Silva, where he's shown the ability to build 44 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 2: up his volume and his output the longer the fights go. 45 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:30,359 Speaker 2: So I took a look at Cop to win in 46 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 2: rounds four, rounds five. Here the numbers just weren't big 47 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 2: enough for my liking. I think there were fourteen to one, 48 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 2: fifteen to one respectively. I was hoping for twenty to one, 49 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 2: thirty to one, you know, numbers more in that range. 50 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 2: And he's about minus five point fifty in the finish 51 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 2: only in market two. So I didn't seem many ways 52 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:48,720 Speaker 2: to play Cop pre fight aside from just laying the 53 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 2: juice on the money line. I think you'll find a 54 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 2: better price at some point after the first couple of rounds. Again, 55 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:56,399 Speaker 2: he may lose round one, maybe tied one to one 56 00:02:56,520 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 2: after round two, and I'd imagine that's what Billy's looking 57 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 2: for while trying to get himself at plus money on 58 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 2: both sides of this fight, Because Billy, you are looking 59 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 2: for that COP live angle, but you're gonna take Alamabia 60 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 2: at plus one eighty pre fight, and then what's your 61 00:03:11,080 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 2: timing as far as looking to the coplb. 62 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 1: Anglin, Yeah, I think if this were a three round fight, 63 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 1: I might actually be kind of confidently betting Alma Baia Yep, Chris. Stylistically, 64 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 1: he is the exact fighter that we've seen beat Manel 65 00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:26,200 Speaker 1: Cop in the UFC. I'm not saying he's as good 66 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:28,359 Speaker 1: as these guys, but the three losses for Cop are 67 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:34,240 Speaker 1: Mohammed Makhayevtayos Nikolau, and Alejandre Pantoja, all grapplers. Pantoja didn't 68 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:36,040 Speaker 1: take him down at all, which was interesting, But like 69 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 1: that style of fighter is just his kryptonite. I just 70 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:42,160 Speaker 1: don't know that you can hold him down and not 71 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:45,080 Speaker 1: get hurt over twenty five minutes. Doing that over fifteen 72 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 1: minutes is one thing, especially in a small cage. Twenty 73 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 1: five is a lot bigger ask. So yeah, as you 74 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 1: laid out, I'm just trying to get plus money on 75 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 1: both sides. If we got that after round one on Cop, great, 76 00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 1: I'd jump in right on it. If he gets dominated 77 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 1: round one plus money both sides, it's cool. Probably won't happen. Honestly, 78 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 1: it wouldn't even shock me. If we had to wait 79 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 1: like three rounds with Alma Baye of up to one, 80 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 1: I don't know, what is Cardio's like, I just know 81 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 1: it's really hard to wrestle for twenty five minutes, and 82 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 1: especially at Flyway, you don't get a takedown and then 83 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:16,800 Speaker 1: just get to hang out there the way you do 84 00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 1: it have your weight classes. Cop is gonna get back up. 85 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:21,799 Speaker 1: He's gonna make you do it again and again and again. 86 00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 1: You could probably do that for some period of time. 87 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:27,800 Speaker 1: I just don't know that that period is twenty five 88 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 1: full minutes. So Amabaya of plus one eighty. I was 89 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 1: hoping it would continue to go up. It kind of 90 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:34,599 Speaker 1: bounced up a little bit earlier in the week and 91 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 1: came back down, and then yeah, cop Live, just whenever 92 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:41,159 Speaker 1: we get the opportunity. If I had to guess ahead 93 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 1: of time, it would honestly probably be after round three. 94 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 2: Though yeah, I could see two to one Almabayev after 95 00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 2: round three certainly being the score and then jumping in 96 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:51,119 Speaker 2: on COP Live for the championship rounds. But like I said, 97 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 2: this could be a close fight given the takedown angle 98 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 2: for Mama Baye. If they pop back up to their 99 00:04:56,360 --> 00:04:58,320 Speaker 2: feet after a short amount of time, Cop lands the 100 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 2: biggest strike at the round and then the Desser split 101 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:03,279 Speaker 2: on Alma Bia for the rounder, Cop for the round. 102 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:05,480 Speaker 2: You could get some close, weird rounds anytime you get 103 00:05:05,480 --> 00:05:08,720 Speaker 2: the striker versus rappler dynamic going. But I do think 104 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:12,359 Speaker 2: in the Apex without the crowd, do you think damage 105 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:14,919 Speaker 2: tends to get scored a little bit more fairly, a 106 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 2: little bit more aggressively in the Apex compared to other venues. 107 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 2: Damage optics will seem to win out for Cop for 108 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:23,960 Speaker 2: me here ultimately, and I do think that justifies the 109 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:27,760 Speaker 2: favoritism on top of the extra finishing upside that he 110 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:30,960 Speaker 2: has relative Alma Bi of move on to the co 111 00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 2: made amount of the night, what we are calling the 112 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,599 Speaker 2: fight of the night. I'd probably pick about six, seven, 113 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:38,480 Speaker 2: maybe eight different fights ahead of this one. For technically 114 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:40,919 Speaker 2: what we would pick is our best fight on the card. 115 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 2: But Julia Mark haz about minus one twenty Cody Brundage 116 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 2: even money, Billy, you have a preview for this fight, 117 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 2: or we'll have preview this fight up on Action network 118 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:51,840 Speaker 2: dot com. We're aligned here on the over one and 119 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:55,159 Speaker 2: a half rounds at plus money and we'll consider taking 120 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 2: stabs on the ghost the decision prop at about plus 121 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:00,919 Speaker 2: three twenty five. I projected this closer to about plus 122 00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 2: two hundred, so in complete alignment that this fight is 123 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:06,600 Speaker 2: likelier to go to decision in the markets, just even 124 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:09,720 Speaker 2: though Julian Mark has been chaoed badly in his past. 125 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 3: Three fights and Cody brought at a bit of a quitter. 126 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:13,279 Speaker 2: So, Billy, where are you going in terms of his 127 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:15,479 Speaker 2: side for this fight? If you had to pick one, 128 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:18,800 Speaker 2: are you interested in Marquez live bet after round one? 129 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:21,719 Speaker 2: Because that's my plan? And then tell me about your thoughts. 130 00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:22,200 Speaker 3: On the totals. 131 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:25,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not picking a side at the current I mean, 132 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:29,839 Speaker 1: if either guy's plus money, sure like it. Just I 133 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:32,080 Speaker 1: don't feel great about either guy, Like you are not 134 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 1: going to be happy holding either man's ticket when the 135 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:37,240 Speaker 1: first bell rings here. But I do think there's a 136 00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:39,239 Speaker 1: couple of reasons to think this is likely to go along. 137 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 1: As you pointed out, we like the over one and 138 00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:43,279 Speaker 1: a half at slight plus money goes to a decision 139 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 1: better than three to one. The first is like the 140 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:49,279 Speaker 1: stylistic nature of this fight and the incentives for these guys. 141 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:51,599 Speaker 1: Mark has been knocked out three times in a row, 142 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 1: Rundage can't really strike, and even when he starts to 143 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:57,679 Speaker 1: find success, striking. He just can't help himself from shooting 144 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 1: like he just he's a wrestler. That's what he does. 145 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 1: If he punches you, he says, oh great, now it's 146 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 1: my time to get a takedown. And then outside of 147 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:08,919 Speaker 1: the slam knockout of Zach Reese, he doesn't do a 148 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 1: lot with those strikes in terms of damage. And Marquez 149 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:15,680 Speaker 1: is enough of a submission threat that if Brundage is smart, 150 00:07:15,680 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 1: he's just gonna try to hold him down light shots. 151 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:20,600 Speaker 1: He's not gonna take any big risks on the ground. Marquez, 152 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 1: on the other side, is going to swing real heavy. 153 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 1: But if he clips Brundage at all, Brundage is gonna shoot. 154 00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 1: That's normally where we see Marquez get his submission wins 155 00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 1: when the guy takes a bad shot. I just think 156 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:33,440 Speaker 1: Brundage is a decent enough grappler that he can stay 157 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:35,880 Speaker 1: out of that trouble. But the other big factor here 158 00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:38,520 Speaker 1: is these guys were training partners until very recently, for 159 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:41,600 Speaker 1: like a few years, we've seen that I think it 160 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 1: was Rosen strike versus Haavlevich. Well you said, like the 161 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 1: training partners, Yeah, vocal right, And we just see that 162 00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 1: happen with these guys. I don't know if it's like 163 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 1: a we just fall into the old habits, right, because 164 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:56,120 Speaker 1: when you train, you're not trying to kill each other 165 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:58,320 Speaker 1: the same way you are in a fight, And sometimes 166 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 1: that familiarity is just like, oh, yeah, we've done this 167 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 1: a million times, let's do it again, or also just 168 00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 1: like I know what he's really good at. I'm gonna 169 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 1: try to stay away from that. He knows what I'm 170 00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 1: really good at, He's going to stay away regardless. It 171 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 1: seems like when we get these situations, they tend to 172 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:16,720 Speaker 1: go along more often than that. And then if it 173 00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 1: goes over one and a half, and neither of these 174 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 1: guys really have good cardio, I think once we get 175 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 1: to that one and a half, the odds of it 176 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 1: going all the way are much much higher if we 177 00:08:24,880 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 1: make it that far. So that's why I added goes 178 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 1: to a decision on there, don't I'm not trying to 179 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:33,960 Speaker 1: pick a side. I get Marquez live just because of 180 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 1: the cardio, which is not great for either guy. He's 181 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 1: looked better when he's not getting knocked out, So I 182 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:41,560 Speaker 1: get it. I guess I just I don't want to 183 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 1: have to root for either of these fighters. 184 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:45,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, Brundage, it's not even the cardio thing. 185 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:48,679 Speaker 2: He just tends to quit once things start going against them. 186 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:51,400 Speaker 2: Survive for a round, stay competitive for a round. But 187 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:54,480 Speaker 2: and I think he'll probably win the early minutes in 188 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:57,960 Speaker 2: this fight. But once things, once some momentum flips against them, 189 00:08:58,000 --> 00:08:59,959 Speaker 2: Cody Brunnage does tend to look for a way out. 190 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:01,559 Speaker 3: That's why I like both the over. 191 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 2: One and a half and the ghost through decision. 192 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 3: I think this gets. 193 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:07,520 Speaker 2: Over one and a half much more than the market suggests. 194 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:09,440 Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a sweat for the 195 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 2: final seven and a half minutes, seeing if Cody Ruddig 196 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:14,079 Speaker 2: is willing to fight to the end or not. We've 197 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:16,880 Speaker 2: seen him quit twice due to ipokes before and take 198 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:20,439 Speaker 2: deep he wins from those I think my back of 199 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:22,319 Speaker 2: the head. Yes, shots in the back of the head, 200 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,080 Speaker 2: that's right, So he's well. Two of the wins on 201 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:28,720 Speaker 2: his record are fights where he ultimately quit and probably 202 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:31,440 Speaker 2: you would have seen most guys continue Henry s Hudo 203 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:33,760 Speaker 2: or I keep those money lines. Last week he could 204 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:36,080 Speaker 2: have opted out and I believe gotten into a decision 205 00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:36,720 Speaker 2: out of that fight. 206 00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:38,320 Speaker 3: But yeah, I. 207 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:41,080 Speaker 2: Think Mark has live after round one probably the best 208 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:45,080 Speaker 2: way to bet either side, considering more heart down the 209 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 2: stretch of this fight going to be looking for less 210 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:49,679 Speaker 2: of a way out. And if he didn't get clipped early, 211 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:52,280 Speaker 2: you know that that means he's likely in the fight 212 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 2: and it's likely competitive, and he's just gotten clipped early 213 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 2: and obliterated in his recent fights. So yeah, I don't 214 00:09:57,040 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 2: I don't think Cody Brunn is nearly as dangerous as 215 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:03,840 Speaker 2: Mark his recent opponents. And as you said, Marquez's likeliest 216 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:06,440 Speaker 2: finishing technique is via submission. I think he's about plus 217 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 2: two fifty in the betting market to win by submission, 218 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 2: even lower than that plus you thirty, and I think 219 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 2: Brundon has enough to stay safe on top. So yeah, 220 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:18,040 Speaker 2: like the juicy plus money on this fight to go 221 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 2: over one and a half rounds and to go to 222 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:22,760 Speaker 2: a decision. Let's move on to our favorite underdogs on 223 00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:26,160 Speaker 2: this card. We're in agreement on two underdogs in particular. 224 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:28,960 Speaker 2: You may save one for your best bets, but go 225 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 2: ahead and talk about the Hyder emeal. William Gomes fight 226 00:10:32,720 --> 00:10:35,640 Speaker 2: a Meal. I believe I defeated Hurricane Hider, one of 227 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:39,040 Speaker 2: the most exciting guys I think in the promotion right now, 228 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 2: just because he sprints forward and starts swinging and he's 229 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:45,480 Speaker 2: super reckless, and those are puts tend to fall once 230 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:48,640 Speaker 2: he starts swinging. It's kind of like a smaller vander 231 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:51,720 Speaker 2: lay Silva. So tell me why Hurricane Hider is the 232 00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:52,360 Speaker 2: side this week. 233 00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 1: I think that's a bit much on the vander like Comparedion, 234 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 1: But I see where you're going with it. I get 235 00:10:57,360 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 1: the concept. 236 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:02,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's the pace and the aggression. Like obviously the 237 00:11:02,240 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 2: technique different, the power or the athlete different. But yeah, 238 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:10,920 Speaker 2: there's not too many guys who are willing to just 239 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:13,800 Speaker 2: like enter a fifty to fifty fight the moment the 240 00:11:13,800 --> 00:11:16,520 Speaker 2: opening bell rings, and Hider is definitely one of those guys. 241 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:18,400 Speaker 2: And hey, we're getting him at plus money this week. 242 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 2: I feel like you've had to lay juice on him 243 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:23,120 Speaker 2: recently for that same fighting sound. He's just capable of 244 00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:24,839 Speaker 2: making any of his fight type areas. 245 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:27,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's I mean, that's the key I think 246 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:31,160 Speaker 1: to this is that if we're flipping a coin, I 247 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 1: want the side that pays out almost two to one. 248 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:35,560 Speaker 1: I don't know that we necessarily are flipping a coin here, 249 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 1: William Gomi four wins in the UFC. Three of those 250 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:41,560 Speaker 1: were what I consider like not definitive. He has two 251 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:45,120 Speaker 1: split decisions and a majority decision, the most recent one 252 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 1: against Joe Anderson Brito, I would say particularly egregious, like 253 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 1: that should have gone the other way. The other two 254 00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 1: probably were right, but kind of whatever. Either way, that 255 00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 1: shows you he's not putting people away. He's not even 256 00:11:56,640 --> 00:12:00,160 Speaker 1: definitively winning rounds where no one can question it. We're 257 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:02,960 Speaker 1: hyder A Mill, He's he's gonna win. Like when he wins, 258 00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:05,559 Speaker 1: he wins, right, there's not a lot of doubt when 259 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 1: he's dropping people and swinging real hard. The other thing is, 260 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:10,120 Speaker 1: and I'm going to talk about this in my props, 261 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:12,719 Speaker 1: I think there's some sneaky grappling upside for hyder A 262 00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 1: Mill here against a French kickboxer, like they're, you know, 263 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:17,520 Speaker 1: not someone that we expect to be able to wrestle 264 00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:19,680 Speaker 1: a little bit. We'll see if that plays into it 265 00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 1: at all. I'm not sure that it does, but yeah, 266 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:25,480 Speaker 1: it's close to a coin flip. At worst. We're getting 267 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 1: big plus money, and I just I'm always going to 268 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 1: bet against the guy who's won three consecutive like questionable 269 00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:35,440 Speaker 1: decisions that have all gone his way, because that's not 270 00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:37,079 Speaker 1: a sustainable way to keep winning fights. 271 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:39,960 Speaker 2: Go Mis likes the stick and move, and by move 272 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:43,320 Speaker 2: I mean run away. Now they're fighting in the Apex, 273 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:46,320 Speaker 2: there's much less room to maneuver and work around here 274 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 2: than Gomas has had in other fights. Three fights back, 275 00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 2: he's in Paris, two fights back he was in the Apex. 276 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 2: One fight back back in Paris again, So this is 277 00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:58,680 Speaker 2: not the type of venue that lends itself to William 278 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:01,960 Speaker 2: Gomis's style in turns of just getting the hell away 279 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:04,200 Speaker 2: from his opponent. And with the way Hider is going 280 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 2: to fight and force him backwards, I think he's going 281 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:10,000 Speaker 2: to run into the fence much more than he's accustomed to. 282 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 2: So it's just kind of an awkward venue for William 283 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 2: Gomis to be fighting again. As you mentioned, with those 284 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:22,080 Speaker 2: those split majority decisions, two of the three, the majority 285 00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 2: of media scorecards and public scorecards went against them. The 286 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 2: majority decision, I think virtually every media scorecard had it 287 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 2: for him, but two of those three definitely could have 288 00:13:32,920 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 2: ended up going against them. So yeah, I mean, he's 289 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 2: the bigger man, three inches taller, three in treaty advantage. 290 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:40,679 Speaker 2: He's seven years younger, but given a Meal's aggression, given 291 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 2: that forward pressure optics, if this is a close fight 292 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:46,680 Speaker 2: in the apex, I could see him getting you know, 293 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 2: fifty to fifty scorecards in a round just because of 294 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 2: the opic to moving forward where Gomez is going to 295 00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:54,520 Speaker 2: be running away. So yeah, Hider Meal plus one seventy 296 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:57,720 Speaker 2: KO line is plus four seventy. I made that about 297 00:13:57,760 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 2: four to one. I think Goms is pretty durable, but 298 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 2: a decent way to play Hyder at plus money given 299 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:06,200 Speaker 2: given his fighting style, and it just leans into more 300 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:09,280 Speaker 2: of the upside variants in that fight. You want to 301 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 2: save our second underdog for best betch we save it 302 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:12,920 Speaker 2: for later. 303 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:15,520 Speaker 1: We can go with best betsch. Mine's a little bit 304 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 1: of a link the two I have down there, so 305 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:18,240 Speaker 1: we'll talk. 306 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 3: About we'll save it for the end. 307 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 2: Let's move on to some top props on this card, 308 00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 2: because I know you did have some prop thoughts on 309 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 2: the Hyder Remeal fight. Why don't you go ahead and 310 00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 2: give those out and other props after the start? 311 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 1: So before I get into a little bit of a 312 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:35,840 Speaker 1: preamble here, really trying to get more into the quote 313 00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:39,480 Speaker 1: unquote player props on DraftKings specifically here. You know, I 314 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 1: play a lot of fantasy. I build out projections for 315 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:43,520 Speaker 1: this stuff all the time. I think there's probably a 316 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 1: bigger edge there than there are another markets for a 317 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:48,440 Speaker 1: lot of the same reasons we see with team sports. 318 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 1: One of those, I really like hyder A mill over 319 00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 1: zero point five takedowns to the land any takedown plus 320 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 1: two fifteen. They had two UFC fights. He got to 321 00:14:57,040 --> 00:14:58,720 Speaker 1: take down in one of them, the other one he 322 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:00,920 Speaker 1: got a knock out in one minute. Not really a 323 00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 1: lot of opportunity for that, and go me a pretty 324 00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:07,600 Speaker 1: clear just kickboxer got token down three times by Joe Anderson, 325 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:10,360 Speaker 1: Brito twice by Francis Marshall, and both of his split 326 00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 1: decision wins. It would make sense for mill to do that. 327 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 1: Smaller cage makes it easier to do that. Shorter guy 328 00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:17,480 Speaker 1: where you can get under him and lift it makes 329 00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 1: him easier to do that. And that all comes at 330 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 1: plus two to fifteen. So I'm doing a quarter unit 331 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 1: on each of these. The other one same exact prop, 332 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:29,360 Speaker 1: Sam Patterson coming into his fight against Danny Barlow. Sam 333 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:31,760 Speaker 1: Patterson got foured, got a takedown in two of his 334 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 1: three UFC fights, and he's fighting left hand to god 335 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 1: Danny Barlow, who just plants his. 336 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 3: Feets and throws crazy. 337 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:39,720 Speaker 1: If there's ever someone to take down, that's it. Like 338 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:41,760 Speaker 1: that's the person that you shoot a take down on 339 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 1: because he swings really hard, he's really aggressive, and he 340 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 1: just plants his feet and makes himself easier to take down. 341 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:51,000 Speaker 1: I'm really surprised we're getting plus two twenty five on 342 00:15:51,040 --> 00:15:54,320 Speaker 1: that one. And Patterson has won two straight fights by submission, 343 00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:57,880 Speaker 1: also won his condemded series fight by submission. Like, he's 344 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:00,360 Speaker 1: six three in tall and lanky, so people think of 345 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 1: him as a striker, I think because of that, But 346 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,840 Speaker 1: the man's a grappler. He's averaging two takedowns for fifteen minutes. 347 00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 1: Like I don't understand that line at all. Just to 348 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 1: score even one takedown at plus two twenty five, obviously 349 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 1: we get one of these. We're doing really well. 350 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:15,120 Speaker 3: We hit two. 351 00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 1: It's a huge party. So that's where I'm looking this week. 352 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 1: There might be some more that pop up later because 353 00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 1: they weren't all there when I was looking at him 354 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 1: last night, but that's what I'm looking at. 355 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:25,880 Speaker 3: Good stuff. 356 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:28,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, that Patterson Barlow fight. I think there's value in 357 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 2: Potterson to win via submission at about plus five hundred. 358 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 2: It's just how he's going to approach this fight. We 359 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 2: haven't really seen Barlow's grappling tested Patterson. Though very bad chin, 360 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:41,320 Speaker 2: very upright striking defense, he leaves that chin up in 361 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 2: the air. Barlow is has a KO on a platter, 362 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:46,480 Speaker 2: probably if he wants it. KO one is two to one. 363 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 2: Patterson needs to grapple to extend this fight. To surviving 364 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:53,080 Speaker 2: this fight potentially to win the fight. Love the takedown 365 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 2: angle correlated value on Patterson to win by submission at 366 00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 2: north of five to one. 367 00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:01,160 Speaker 3: I personally like Barlow to finish him knock, but I. 368 00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 2: Think there's certainly value on the underdog via submission if 369 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:06,720 Speaker 2: you're going to bet him another big, juicy plus money 370 00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:10,639 Speaker 2: prop method victory prop. I like Naz're at Hackbrass at 371 00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:13,879 Speaker 2: about plus six point fifty to win by decision against 372 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:18,320 Speaker 2: Esteban Ribovich should be a very high volume striking war 373 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:21,960 Speaker 2: between these two. Hacbross just a little bit more experienced 374 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:25,000 Speaker 2: against higher level of competition. I think it's just a 375 00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:27,720 Speaker 2: big number. I don't view him as a guy who 376 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 2: is particularly big ko power guys he's knocked out at 377 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:33,760 Speaker 2: him to knock out Jamie Market. The guys he's knocked 378 00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:36,320 Speaker 2: out have bad chins. But I do think his his 379 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:39,359 Speaker 2: overall game is at the best it's been, you know. 380 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:40,880 Speaker 2: I think he's a little bit better than he ones. 381 00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:42,919 Speaker 2: A couple of years ago, they used to give him 382 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 2: very soft fights. They were trying to level him up, 383 00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:48,040 Speaker 2: But I think now Hacbross kind of went frohim being 384 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:51,200 Speaker 2: a fighter who was overrated back to underrated, especially given 385 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:53,840 Speaker 2: where this line is and the type of fight this 386 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:56,000 Speaker 2: is going to be, so Hackbross by decision plus six 387 00:17:56,119 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 2: fifty should be a high volume, striking war. I want 388 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:04,359 Speaker 2: to touch on before we move on our best bets section. 389 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:08,520 Speaker 2: The Lucas Almeida Danny Silva, either the over two and 390 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:09,920 Speaker 2: a half rounds or the fight to go to a 391 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:12,640 Speaker 2: decision at plus one twenty, both guys coming back off 392 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:14,359 Speaker 2: a year long wayoff. I think you see a slow 393 00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:17,680 Speaker 2: start here. May eventually heat up a little bit later, 394 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:20,159 Speaker 2: but like that to go to a decision of plus money. 395 00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:24,920 Speaker 2: The Ramos and Chepe Meriscal fight over two and a 396 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:27,000 Speaker 2: half at plus one seventeen, or go to a decision 397 00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:28,640 Speaker 2: at plus one point fifty. 398 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:28,800 Speaker 3: Four to four. 399 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 2: Ramos's five losses are round one. He's the bigger man 400 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:34,960 Speaker 2: here though two inches taller, too inchre each advantage. He's 401 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:38,000 Speaker 2: also three years younger and he changed camps before this fight. 402 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 2: He went to train with team fighting nerves and hopefully 403 00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:43,359 Speaker 2: they instilled him with a little bit more heart because 404 00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:45,280 Speaker 2: he does tend to be a little bit of a quitter, 405 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:48,080 Speaker 2: doesn't show the best cardio down the stretch. Maybe they 406 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:50,679 Speaker 2: got him on some vitamins that that team seems to 407 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 2: have plenty of it. 408 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:52,399 Speaker 3: Abuddance. 409 00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 2: That Jean Silva knockout last weekend was absolutely crazy. I 410 00:18:56,359 --> 00:18:58,679 Speaker 2: think he ended up being faster than Meltic, which I 411 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:04,160 Speaker 2: think surprised few people, including myself. But yeah, that move, 412 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:07,480 Speaker 2: that camp switch for Ramos, I think could ultimately be 413 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:09,159 Speaker 2: a good thing for him. I would expect him to 414 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:13,480 Speaker 2: grapple relatively proactively against Chepe, try to tie things up, 415 00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:17,199 Speaker 2: make things competitive. I think Chepe's money line is just 416 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:20,880 Speaker 2: a little too steep here considering where Ramos was lined 417 00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:23,359 Speaker 2: in previous fights. But no bet for me on the 418 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 2: side of like the over at plus money and then 419 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 2: the casta Eta Silva day on DROD fight, I projected 420 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:33,639 Speaker 2: that at minus or at plus one fifty to end 421 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:35,480 Speaker 2: inside the distance they're giving it as high as plus 422 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:37,920 Speaker 2: one eight eight. DSDA fights at a super high pace. 423 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:38,080 Speaker 3: I know. 424 00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:41,240 Speaker 2: I talked about Hyder remeal before and his pace. DSDA 425 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,640 Speaker 2: thirty nine years old, but in his prime's that's kind 426 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:47,119 Speaker 2: of the way he fights. Just sprints forward, pushes a 427 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:50,040 Speaker 2: crazy pace, lots of volume. But I think both of 428 00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:52,840 Speaker 2: these guys, you know, DSDA is thirty nine, castaat is 429 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,120 Speaker 2: thirty four. This guy's starting to get hurt a little 430 00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:58,080 Speaker 2: bit more in their mid to late thirties. Both have 431 00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 2: gone to a decision a number of times recent fights, 432 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 2: which I think is giving us a nice plus money 433 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,560 Speaker 2: number on the fight to end inside of this since 434 00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:08,040 Speaker 2: at plus twenty eighty should be closer to plus one 435 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,280 Speaker 2: fifty in my opinion, So three totals for me in 436 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 2: terms of the top props this weekend. Also hot Cross 437 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:15,920 Speaker 2: by Decision. If you like that Patterson takedown prop that 438 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:18,919 Speaker 2: Billy gave out, I think you should probably sprinkle him 439 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:21,840 Speaker 2: by submission as well. I'll be joining Billy on that 440 00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:24,760 Speaker 2: takedown prop edition to the hider Meal takedown prop as 441 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 2: well against William Gomes Billy any other props that you 442 00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:29,760 Speaker 2: like before we move on to our best bets. 443 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:32,440 Speaker 1: No other props, but I've been kicking around the Heck 444 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:35,000 Speaker 1: Paris money line for much of the week, and I'm 445 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 1: glad you put the decision here. I can take a 446 00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:40,480 Speaker 1: little bite at that and not expose myself. He's been 447 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:43,000 Speaker 1: so much better since he moved to TriStar. I'm not 448 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:45,159 Speaker 1: sure exactly when that happened, because he was training in 449 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,399 Speaker 1: Germany and then Morocco and all over the place, and 450 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:51,359 Speaker 1: he's somehow still twenty nine. Like I was worried about 451 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,119 Speaker 1: betting him. I thought he'd be the much older fighter. 452 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,959 Speaker 1: He's like six months older than a Steban Ribovich who 453 00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:59,080 Speaker 1: was in the UFC since like two years ago something 454 00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 1: like that. So yeah, I really like Hackbaris. I think 455 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:05,480 Speaker 1: the decision is probably the way to do it. Ribovich 456 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:07,680 Speaker 1: seems pretty durable, doesn't seem like he has any big 457 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,240 Speaker 1: defensive weaknesses. Kind of feels like we're just going to 458 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 1: see a lot of strikes from both guys, relatively hard 459 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:17,280 Speaker 1: slash close judging unless somebody gets hurt, and if that 460 00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:19,600 Speaker 1: doesn't happen, the decision makes a lot of sense. 461 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,400 Speaker 2: I feel like hack Bross to land a takedown could 462 00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:24,000 Speaker 2: be interesting. 463 00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:26,080 Speaker 3: In that fight, you should get plus money. 464 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:29,720 Speaker 2: You know, the Trystar guys like to mix in the 465 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:33,240 Speaker 2: grappling a little bit more. He's faced wrestlers in his 466 00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:35,960 Speaker 2: recent fight, Jamian Malarky, Jared Morden, guys he's probably not 467 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:37,040 Speaker 2: going to try to take down. 468 00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:38,880 Speaker 3: Could be interesting. 469 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:40,760 Speaker 2: It's probably the best way for him to win the 470 00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 2: fight is to mix it up because Riviovic is likely 471 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 2: just has slightly more volume than him across fifteen minutes, 472 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:50,520 Speaker 2: slightly more finishing upside for Ribovich as well, So maybe 473 00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:52,440 Speaker 2: mixing in some grappling could be the way that Hawk 474 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:54,840 Speaker 2: Bross ends up pulling that fight off. 475 00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 3: Talk about our best. 476 00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,359 Speaker 2: Bets, though, you've got a couple here in this section, 477 00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:01,440 Speaker 2: including one that is an that we were in agreement upon, 478 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,960 Speaker 2: and that is Andrea Lee at plus one eighty. I 479 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 2: believe she's lost five straight, but two of those were 480 00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,720 Speaker 2: splits that definitely could have gone her way. I'm sure 481 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:12,920 Speaker 2: she was in your luck rankings piece this week, Billy, 482 00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:14,240 Speaker 2: Why are you betting on a fighter who's on a 483 00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:15,200 Speaker 2: five fight losing street? 484 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,000 Speaker 1: So I am in totally totally stealing a bit that 485 00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:20,840 Speaker 1: you did last week with I believe it was Ebo 486 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 1: Aslin where you said, like one, you know, high variance 487 00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 1: result here impacted two fights on the card, and for me, 488 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,879 Speaker 1: Andrea Lee won a split decision over or lost a 489 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:34,560 Speaker 1: split decision to Montana de la Rosa last June that 490 00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:35,960 Speaker 1: easily could have gone the other way. 491 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,320 Speaker 3: I wouldn't call it a robbery, honestly. 492 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,199 Speaker 1: I don't think any of her decision losses on the 493 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:43,479 Speaker 1: streak are like outright robberies, but a lot of them 494 00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:45,200 Speaker 1: were coin flips that could have gone the other way. 495 00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:48,240 Speaker 1: So because of that, I'm taking Andrea Lee at plus 496 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 1: one eighty to finally convince the judges to give her 497 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:52,960 Speaker 1: one of these fights. And then on the other side 498 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,919 Speaker 1: of that, Luana Carolina, who is fighting Montana de la 499 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,760 Speaker 1: Rosa somewhere in the neighborhood of minus one thirty. I 500 00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:00,959 Speaker 1: think she's a lot better than Mina de la Rosa. 501 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,160 Speaker 1: If you look at her record. She had lost three 502 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:07,320 Speaker 1: in a row before getting the split decision over Andrea Lee, 503 00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:10,320 Speaker 1: so easily could be on a four fight losing streak. 504 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,240 Speaker 1: And yeah, so that Montana de la Rosa Andrea Lee fight, 505 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:15,919 Speaker 1: giving me two other bets that I'm taking because of 506 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,400 Speaker 1: that depend on how you structure that. You could get 507 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:19,960 Speaker 1: it so you only need one to win to make 508 00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 1: a profit, or you could bet a full unit on 509 00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,479 Speaker 1: both and just see what happens. But that's how I'm 510 00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:28,840 Speaker 1: approaching it. I think that fight just had a ripple 511 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:32,280 Speaker 1: effect across this card here how we're seeing these women's fights. 512 00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:35,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, jj Olterich also just not a particularly good athlete. 513 00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:38,159 Speaker 2: I don't really view her as somebody who is a 514 00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,560 Speaker 2: high level finisher capable of finishing this fight very consistently 515 00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:43,560 Speaker 2: at all. In fact, I think Lee maybe has more 516 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:47,399 Speaker 2: finishing upside the fight. And additionally, Lee tends to lose 517 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:51,000 Speaker 2: when opponents can out wrestle her or control her. This 518 00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:52,879 Speaker 2: is like a fifteen minute striking fight. To me, that 519 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,200 Speaker 2: is minus four to fifty y older decision. We're getting 520 00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,119 Speaker 2: plus one eighty on the underdog in a fight that's 521 00:23:57,320 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 2: over eighty percent implied to reach a decision. To figure 522 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,560 Speaker 2: that one out, Lee's also three she's three years older, 523 00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:05,399 Speaker 2: but she's the two inch reach advantage here in the 524 00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:08,720 Speaker 2: striking exchanges. So I'll take Andrey Lee at plus one eighty, 525 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:12,639 Speaker 2: also by decision at plus two seventy. And then my 526 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:16,240 Speaker 2: best bet on the card is Charles Energy Johnson at 527 00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:18,280 Speaker 2: minus one twenty. I think though you may get a 528 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:22,720 Speaker 2: better live price after round one. His opponent Tamarov is 529 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,760 Speaker 2: six years younger, but he's very small for the division 530 00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:29,400 Speaker 2: sixty three in treach. Johnson as seventy inch reach. He's 531 00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 2: also five inches taller. Temarov just gonna come forward and 532 00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 2: wing bombs overhands. He may hurt Johnson knock him down 533 00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:42,480 Speaker 2: in round one, but after round one Johnson takes over 534 00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:45,080 Speaker 2: with the grappling with the volume. I think Johnson's best 535 00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:48,400 Speaker 2: path here is actually to grapple from the outset, stay 536 00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,880 Speaker 2: out of trouble on the feet, try to tire Tamrov 537 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,080 Speaker 2: out for the later rounds. But we've really seen an 538 00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:55,560 Speaker 2: emergence from this guy. There were a lot of Bobby 539 00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:58,840 Speaker 2: Green comps when he came to the UFC. Didn't really 540 00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,840 Speaker 2: show a lot of physicality. You know, early on was 541 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,479 Speaker 2: in a number of like weird close decisions that weren't 542 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:06,840 Speaker 2: going his way. And now the ball has been rolling 543 00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 2: a little bit. He got he got a close decision 544 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,000 Speaker 2: to go his way. He's looked better in his recent fights, 545 00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:14,440 Speaker 2: So Charles Johnson on the money line of minus one 546 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:16,280 Speaker 2: twenty and then again, I think you may get a 547 00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:20,240 Speaker 2: better live price after the opening round, Billy, any thoughts 548 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:21,640 Speaker 2: in the Johnson Tamarov fight. 549 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 1: I theoretically agree with you. I just don't see any 550 00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:27,520 Speaker 1: reason to hold a pre fight ticket. Like, we know, 551 00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,560 Speaker 1: it's Charles Johnson. He was a marathon runner or cross 552 00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,760 Speaker 1: country runner or whatever in college. He's built for the 553 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:37,199 Speaker 1: long game. Even when he's hurting people, it's in you know, 554 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 1: the third round, like he did against Josh Van So yeah, 555 00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:43,320 Speaker 1: full agreement. I'm worried that Tamarov just sparks him early. 556 00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:47,679 Speaker 1: So there's no there's doesn't feel like any risk. The 557 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:49,920 Speaker 1: absolute worst thing that can happen by waiting to about 558 00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:51,840 Speaker 1: live is you just get a worse price on Johnson, 559 00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:54,320 Speaker 1: which obviously is an ideal. But if you get a 560 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,760 Speaker 1: worse price because he won the first round and has 561 00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 1: better cardio, I'll pay minus two hundred for that or whatever. 562 00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:01,399 Speaker 2: Or so yeah, he's gonna say if he wins the 563 00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 2: opening frame, it's probably minus two to fifty, minus three hundred. 564 00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:08,199 Speaker 2: You know, it may not be like beyond reasonable to 565 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,439 Speaker 2: play it even if he wins the opening round. I 566 00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:13,399 Speaker 2: was assuming he's likelier to lose the opening round and 567 00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,520 Speaker 2: you're likelier to get better money on it. Also plus 568 00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:18,719 Speaker 2: one ninety to win by decision Charles Johnson, I think 569 00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:22,439 Speaker 2: that should be closer to lust one thirty. You know, 570 00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 2: you could even look at his same game Parlay Johnson 571 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:26,639 Speaker 2: in the over one and a half rounds angles like that, 572 00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:30,320 Speaker 2: any iteration of Johnson and the fight going longer versus 573 00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:34,760 Speaker 2: Temrov and the fight going short Temrov and round one Billy. 574 00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:37,359 Speaker 2: Number of number juiced money lines on this card, not 575 00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:41,159 Speaker 2: too many money line plays that either of us particularly like. 576 00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:43,399 Speaker 2: But before we get out of here, any other fights 577 00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:44,200 Speaker 2: that you want to touch on. 578 00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,879 Speaker 1: I think, I hate to say it, Austin Lane might 579 00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:49,200 Speaker 1: be slightly undervalued here against Mario Pinto. 580 00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,160 Speaker 2: Every running back Austin Lane by decision it' twelve to one, Billy. 581 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:54,560 Speaker 1: That's kind of where I'm going with that. If we 582 00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:57,080 Speaker 1: don't know if Pinto can grapple or stop anyone, we 583 00:26:57,119 --> 00:27:00,239 Speaker 1: saw him with one fight in the Contender series, if 584 00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,000 Speaker 1: he got a little bit hurt and then just knocked 585 00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:05,680 Speaker 1: the guy out. Austin Lane has realized that the tackling 586 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:07,760 Speaker 1: that got him to the NFL is also his best 587 00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:11,200 Speaker 1: MMA skill. Could it be like the Rebellis to Spain 588 00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:15,000 Speaker 1: fight again? Yeah? Maybe, So that's one should be a 589 00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:18,000 Speaker 1: fun fight either way, because well, no, it shouldn't be a. 590 00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:18,879 Speaker 3: Fun fight either way. 591 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,639 Speaker 1: There's one way it's a really fun fight, and that 592 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:23,840 Speaker 1: is Mario Pinto winning, And there's one way it's a 593 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,639 Speaker 1: really boring fight, and that's Austin Lane playing football with 594 00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:30,440 Speaker 1: clubs on. So yeah, I'm vaguely interested in that, even 595 00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,280 Speaker 1: just his money line because it's so juiced. Who knows, 596 00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:36,399 Speaker 1: Pinto's probably the sharp side, but it it wouldn't totally 597 00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:38,840 Speaker 1: shock me. It's his UFC debut and we're treating this 598 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:40,840 Speaker 1: guy like he's a top five heavyweight. 599 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:41,440 Speaker 3: Yeah. 600 00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:45,040 Speaker 2: Lane cashed that twelve to one decision prop against Rebellus 601 00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:48,560 Speaker 2: the Spain, who's got onto knockout some dudes in karate combat. 602 00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:51,280 Speaker 2: So Austin Lane controlled him successfully. 603 00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:54,280 Speaker 1: For place for the Spain though, Like, what, why didn't 604 00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:56,760 Speaker 1: we do that first? That was obviously the right destination. 605 00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:01,240 Speaker 2: Sorry, but oh no, absolutely we You know, the UFC 606 00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:03,560 Speaker 2: not the best talent scouts in the world. They tend 607 00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:07,280 Speaker 2: to be a little bit more results biased than process oriented, 608 00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:08,960 Speaker 2: but that is the nature of the game. 609 00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:10,320 Speaker 3: They like highlights to be able to sell. 610 00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:12,680 Speaker 2: I make Lane by decision plus nine to sixty seven, 611 00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:14,800 Speaker 2: So it popped up as a value bet for me. 612 00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:17,399 Speaker 2: I make it fifty five percent of his wing condition. 613 00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:19,640 Speaker 2: It's technically a value bet. We'll see if I put 614 00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:23,919 Speaker 2: you know, five bucks on it as opposed to anything significant, 615 00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:26,919 Speaker 2: you know, just something to root for. It will not 616 00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:28,959 Speaker 2: be on my round robin tickets. I can't do that 617 00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,360 Speaker 2: to my round robins, which is not gonna happen this week. 618 00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:33,920 Speaker 2: But yeah, Austin Lane, if you want a dart throw, 619 00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:36,040 Speaker 2: you could be worse than Austin Lane by decision. 620 00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:36,600 Speaker 3: At twelve to one. 621 00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:38,720 Speaker 2: With that, I think we actually touched on pretty much 622 00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:41,040 Speaker 2: all twelve fights on this card. So that'll do it 623 00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,040 Speaker 2: for a UFC betting preview for this weekend. You can 624 00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:46,200 Speaker 2: find more UFC betting content for both Billy and myself 625 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:48,920 Speaker 2: on Action network dot com and in the Action Network app. 626 00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,200 Speaker 2: And remember, if you'd like to instantly tail some of 627 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,360 Speaker 2: the bets that we discussed on today's show, you can 628 00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 2: look for the quick slip links in both the podcasts 629 00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,880 Speaker 2: and the video descriptions for the show, or visit actionetwork 630 00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:01,680 Speaker 2: dot com. Bet now, make sure to download the free 631 00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:03,920 Speaker 2: award winning action ober Gap and sign up for Action 632 00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:07,440 Speaker 2: Pro to get access to expert picks and analysis and 633 00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:09,720 Speaker 2: quicker bet notifications. Best of luck with all your bets 634 00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:16,000 Speaker 2: this weekend, enjoy the violence and take cares. 635 00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,840 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 636 00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:24,120 Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 637 00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:27,000 Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 638 00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:27,880 Speaker 3: hundred Gambler