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Speaker 1: Welcome back everybody. It's the Betting Pros College Football Show.

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Speaker 1: I am your host, Scott Bogman, following me on the

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Speaker 1: Twitter at Bogman Sports. I'm here as always with Thor

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Speaker 1: Nis from at thor Ku on the Twitter machine.

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Speaker 2: We hope that your regular season ended well.

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Speaker 1: I had one of my worst weeks on my article

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Speaker 1: at the end, but I was so far over five

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Speaker 1: hundred that I still finished fifteen games up, so we'll

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Speaker 1: take that, Thor. We're going into conference championship weeks. I

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Speaker 1: hope you had a great Thanksgiving. Man, are you ready?

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Speaker 1: I mean, we're winding down to the end there, we're

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Speaker 1: going to be at Bulls before you know it, sixteen

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Speaker 1: days away from Bulls as we're talking. So are you

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Speaker 1: ready to get into ball season here?

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Speaker 3: Yes, it's a very exciting time.

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Speaker 4: You know, You've had the coaching carousel open up, You've

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Speaker 4: had the transfer portal already open up there and people

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Speaker 4: flying into that. You've had ball announcements starting, you know,

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Speaker 4: and the teams the matchup starting with that, and then

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Speaker 4: we have an awesome conference championship weekend set.

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Speaker 3: Up where there actually.

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Speaker 4: Could be movement with the college playoff, you know, specifically

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Speaker 4: those last two seeds depending on what happened. So I

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Speaker 4: can't wait to see it. Specifically, that Utah USC rematch

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Speaker 4: is gonna have playoff implications. So excited to talk about it.

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Speaker 1: And that's one of the first ones we have because

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Speaker 1: we open up on Friday with the Conference USA Championship.

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Speaker 1: UTSA is an eight and a half point favorite. Sixty

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Speaker 1: nine is a total on this one or a lot

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Speaker 1: of money heading towards North Texas. Ninety four percent of

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Speaker 1: cash right now on North Texas ninety nine percent of

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Speaker 1: cash on the over?

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Speaker 2: Is that how you see this game going.

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Speaker 4: I'm actually on UTSA in this one, like it. I

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Speaker 4: think the ticket I bought earlier in the week was

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Speaker 4: seven and a half, but with it being at eight

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Speaker 4: and a half, I'm still on UTSA. My line on

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Speaker 4: that with it at eight and a half, my system

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Speaker 4: is not showing a ton of line value. It's it's

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Speaker 4: UTSA minus nine point two, so just a little bit.

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Speaker 4: But I think it's a decent matchup for UTSA. Obviously,

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Speaker 4: they have the past first offense and they're passing off

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Speaker 4: is really really good. They have the two stud receivers

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Speaker 4: earlier in the season, UTSA had three stud receivers. I

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Speaker 4: think they're all going to play in the NFL, but

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Speaker 4: the Cory and Clark had the injury where he's out

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Speaker 4: for the season. Frank Harris has been really good that

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Speaker 4: their quarterback, and they can run the ball as well.

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Speaker 4: It's just there they're led by the passing foot. North

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Speaker 4: Texas's defense is really really bad. UTSA is gonna have

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Speaker 4: no problem moving the ball here and then on the

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Speaker 4: on the other side, UTSA doesn't have the best defense,

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Speaker 4: but what their strength is is shutting down the run.

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Speaker 3: Where you can eat Utsa's lunch. It's it's through the

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Speaker 3: air well u n T. They're a run first team.

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Speaker 4: They go four deep at running back, or they did

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Speaker 4: until they had two running back injuries this past month.

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Speaker 4: And I don't know if either of those two kids

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Speaker 4: is gonna play, but either way that you know, their

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Speaker 4: run rate is pretty high. I think UTSA is going

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Speaker 4: to be able to shut out the lights on that

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Speaker 4: rushing attack. That's gonna put a lot of pressure on

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Speaker 4: Austin Own, the North Texas quarterback, to win this game

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Speaker 4: through the air. Austin Nowon's coning stats are really good,

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Speaker 4: like he I think it's already to eleven or thirty

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Speaker 4: one to eleven td I and T rate. He's passed

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Speaker 4: for over three thousand yards, but he has been extremely

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Speaker 4: flattered by running it up on terrible teams. UNA only

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Speaker 4: past Or has only had a PFF game grade over

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Speaker 4: seventy five point zero in four games this season UTEP,

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Speaker 4: Western Kentucky, FIU, and Rice. Of those four teams, Western

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Speaker 4: Kentucky is the only one of them to have a

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Speaker 4: top ninety SP plus defense. I just think this is

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Speaker 4: a solid match for UTSA. I'm not concerned about last

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Speaker 4: week where they sort of slept walk through that game

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Speaker 4: against UTEP, because we saw the exact same thing last

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Speaker 4: year in Week thirteen, when UTSA already had the Conference

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Speaker 4: USA Birth title game birth sewn up and they played

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Speaker 4: North Texas. Ironically, North Texas in that scenario was the

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Speaker 4: team that was five and six. North Texas upset UTSA

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Speaker 4: in Week thirteen last year, but then UTSA went on

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Speaker 4: and beat Bailey Zappi's WKU Hilltoppers the next week in

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Speaker 4: this game, so I'm not concerned about that.

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Speaker 3: I say UTSA by double digits here.

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Speaker 1: I remember I was sitting at a bar at some

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Speaker 1: restaurant watching that game last year, the Conference USA title game.

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Speaker 1: But let's go to the one you mentioned Thor here,

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Speaker 1: the PAC twelve title game, also a Friday night affair.

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Speaker 1: Number four USC against number eleven Utah sixty seven and

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Speaker 1: a half is a total two and a half point

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Speaker 1: favorites are the Trojans in this game.

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Speaker 2: This is the one game that USC lost this year.

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Speaker 2: But if you go back.

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Speaker 1: And you kind of look at that game, they had

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Speaker 1: opportunities to dominate that game and they just missed here.

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Speaker 1: They just missed there, had some penalties, had some bad

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Speaker 1: plays at the end, end up losing it, just really

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Speaker 1: choking it away. I'm pretty confident in USC here, Thor,

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Speaker 1: what do you think.

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Speaker 4: I'm on the other side, Okay, yeah, Now I have

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Speaker 4: misfired stepping on the train tracks against USC each each

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Speaker 4: of the past two each. I first tried with UCLA,

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Speaker 4: then I tried with Notre Dame. But I'm going back

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Speaker 4: to the well with the team that I got my

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Speaker 4: hit on and when I when I faded them against

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Speaker 4: USC and another one like you mentioned in Utah is

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Speaker 4: the only lost the USC has had in contrast to

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Speaker 4: that game. You know that that game was in Salt

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Speaker 4: Lake City. This game is on a neutral field, so

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Speaker 4: obviously that is a benefit to USC, but USC in

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Speaker 4: that game needed a big game out of Travis Die.

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Speaker 4: Travis Die is now out for the season. Utah's run

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Speaker 4: defense is the thing that you want to attack. That's

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Speaker 4: the part of their defense that is not good. And

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Speaker 4: and you know USC's backup running back, you know, Austin

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Speaker 4: Jones and then the freshman they got, they were decent

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Speaker 4: and in in the last game. We'll see over the

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Speaker 4: fall game when they're sort of needed to exploit this

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Speaker 4: this weakness on on the other team. The secondary though

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Speaker 4: in the past defense of Utah is very very good.

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Speaker 4: In the last game, Caleb Williams sort of had to

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Speaker 4: go Superman for for USC to that game was basically

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Speaker 4: a coin flip, and then you know, Utah just pulled

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Speaker 4: it out. But for it to be even be a

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Speaker 4: coin flip, Caleb Williams had to go Superman. But he

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Speaker 4: was under duress the entire time. I think he had

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Speaker 4: eighteen different passing snaps where he was under pressure. It

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Speaker 4: was tied for the most pressures that Williams has been

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Speaker 4: under in any game this year with the Oregon State game,

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Speaker 4: which was by far the worst game that Williams had

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Speaker 4: played all year. The game against Utah, I think he

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Speaker 4: had his third worst adjusted accuracy percentage of any game

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Speaker 4: this year. It's just that he had five big time throws.

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Speaker 4: He was making the incredible throws. The five that's tied

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Speaker 4: with the Arizona game for the most big time throws

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Speaker 4: that Caleb Williams has had in a game this year.

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Speaker 4: In no other game did he have more than three.

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Speaker 4: So he really win super nova against a really really

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Speaker 4: good Utah secondary. Number one, because Utah's top twenty in

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Speaker 4: the nation or actually I think they're twenty third in

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Speaker 4: PFF coverage grade, their top twenty in another important pass

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Speaker 4: defense stat. But they also have the awesome pass rush

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Speaker 4: Utah does. It's top twenty. Sack ray was the other

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Speaker 4: thing I was thinking of. And USC's their offensive line.

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Speaker 4: They've been greatly aided as the entire offense has by Williams.

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Speaker 4: Like if you look at USC's their sack rate, it's

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Speaker 4: forty three, which is respectable, but you start digging deeper

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Speaker 4: and it gets a little bit more troubling. On passing downs,

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Speaker 4: it's number seventy nine. And the Trojans are number ninety

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Speaker 4: seven in pressure rate. What that tells you is Caleb

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Speaker 4: Williams is he's able to extend plays and other quarterbacks

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Speaker 4: they'd be sacked. But is he going to be able

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Speaker 4: to do the same thing if Utah is able to

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Speaker 4: get the same amount.

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Speaker 3: Of pressure on him, We'll see.

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Speaker 4: But Utah for sure is going to be able to

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Speaker 4: generate that pressure again against USC's offensive line. And then

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Speaker 4: on the other side, what is it that USC's defense

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Speaker 4: struggles with. Well, besides everything, they struggle against the run.

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Speaker 4: They and their pass defense stinks too, but it's specifically

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Speaker 4: bad against tight ends. You remember the last game, Dalton

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Speaker 4: Kinkaid absolutely with nuts. Dalton Kinkaid his his PFF grade

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Speaker 4: is absolutely stupid, Like it's like ninety three or ninety

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Speaker 4: four or something. He's a kid whose draft stock has

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Speaker 4: shot up this season. Dalton Kinkaid in the first game

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Speaker 4: against USC sixteen catches, two hundred thirty four yards and

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Speaker 4: a touchdown. And that was no aberration or blip. The

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Speaker 4: past two games against UCLA and Notre Dame, USC gave

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Speaker 4: up twelve catches for trying to find the stats, twelve

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Speaker 4: catches for one hundred and forty two yards and five

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Speaker 4: touchdowns combined to Michael Mayer and Michael Aziki, the two

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Speaker 4: tight ends on those two teams. USC just cannot cover

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Speaker 4: tight ends. Dalton Kinkaid is going to go ape in

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Speaker 4: this game. I expect Utah to be able to run

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Speaker 4: the ball. You do have to give the caveat the

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Speaker 4: Tavon Thomas, the stud Utah running back.

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Speaker 3: He has declared for the draft.

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Speaker 4: I don't know if you would have played in this

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Speaker 4: game anyways, because he has a toe injury that he

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Speaker 4: picked up in the Oregon game. That's the big part

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Speaker 4: of the reason why he opted out when he did.

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Speaker 4: But Utah had gone to this big running back committee

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Speaker 4: even before that, like in the middle of the season.

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Speaker 4: They have three other running backs that they've been given

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Speaker 4: touches to every single week, even when Thomas was playing.

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Speaker 4: Glover Jackson and those guys are gonna be fine with

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Speaker 4: the three man committee, especially against a run defense this

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Speaker 4: bat getting the three points on a Utah team that

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Speaker 4: we've already seen beat USC and and and A and

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Speaker 4: a Utah team. With their three losses, two of those

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Speaker 4: losses came by three points. They've only been beaten by

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Speaker 4: more than three in one game this season, and USC,

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Speaker 4: even outside of the loss, they have three games. They

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Speaker 4: have three close wins this year that were by less

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Speaker 4: than seven points. I'm taking the three points with the utes.

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Speaker 1: All right, Yeah, it should be a close one. And

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Speaker 1: do you think Caleb Williams, if he just has a

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Speaker 1: terrible game, can he lose the Heisman here? Do you

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Speaker 1: think he's already got that wrapped up?

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Speaker 4: I think it would have to be a true abomination

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Speaker 4: of a game where where USC or.

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Speaker 1: Pikes in less than one hundred yards and yeah, he's gonna.

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Speaker 4: He's gonna have to he's gonna have to get to

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Speaker 4: three turnovers and maybe even reach it, and USC would

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Speaker 4: have to lose by two touchdowns or more. I think

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Speaker 4: that's where the door gets open, especially if you know

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Speaker 4: one of the like for instance, Dugan is behind him.

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Speaker 3: You know it's it's can sit bow at this point.

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Speaker 4: But if Dugan absolutely knows yeah, sir, against the good

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Speaker 4: Kansas State defense, TCU wins by margin on the same day,

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Speaker 4: I think that's where maybe, but Caleb Williams is pulled

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Speaker 4: so far ahead, it's gonna take something wild happen on Saturday.

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Speaker 2: I'm with you, there Friday.

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Speaker 1: How about the the Yeah, let's go to Saturday and

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Speaker 1: start with the MAC Championship. Toledo by one and a

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Speaker 1: half against Ohio. Fifty five is a total there, and

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Speaker 1: I mean nobody knows money wise, it's fifty nine percent

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Speaker 1: of cash on Toledo six six. Sixty six percent of

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Speaker 1: tickets are on Ohio. And they don't even have enough

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Speaker 1: bets cash wise to put a number a percentage on cash,

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Speaker 1: but sixty nine percent of the tickets are on the

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Speaker 1: over here, you have a good feel for the MAC

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Speaker 1: title game.

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Speaker 4: I was actually expecting and maybe it's just because they

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Speaker 4: don't have enough data yet. I was expecting the money

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Speaker 4: to be on Ohio because of the line movement that

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Speaker 4: we've seen. You know, it was like at three, then

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Speaker 4: it was at you know, Toledo minus three, Then it

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Speaker 4: was at Toledo minus two and a half. Now it's

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Speaker 4: down to you don't minus one and a half. So

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Speaker 4: you know, at least from that, you know, you were

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Speaker 4: sort of thinking that the market was preferring Ohio. I

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Speaker 4: actually preferred Toledo in this game. You have a couple

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Speaker 4: of big factors here with the quarterback injuries. Curtis Rourke,

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Speaker 4: of course for Ohio, is not going to play because

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Speaker 4: he's out for the season. He's got a torn acl

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Speaker 4: and a moniscus thing and stuff like that. Curtis Rourke

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Speaker 4: was PFS's highest graded quarterback and it wasn't even close.

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Speaker 4: He had a ninety three point one grade. The next

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Speaker 4: highest was ninety one point six. I believe that was

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Speaker 4: Drake may He They've only played one game without him

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Speaker 4: so far.

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Speaker 3: They're backup CJ.

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Speaker 4: Harris in that game went ten for twenty one hundred

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Speaker 4: ninety six yards and a touchdown. Keep in mind, this

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Speaker 4: is against Bowling Green's terrible defense, and CJ. Harris did

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Speaker 4: grind out sixty five run yards. That Ohio's offense they

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Speaker 4: heavily baked in the quarterback running. I think that's the

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Speaker 4: part of it that CJ. Harris will at least be

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Speaker 4: able to somewhat a problem. Maybe he's like eighty five

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Speaker 4: percent of Rourke as a runner. But the passing down

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Speaker 4: grade is it has fallen off a cliff. Ohio's passing

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Speaker 4: offense was really really good earlier this season. I mean

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Speaker 4: it had had one of the biggest improvements any passing

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Speaker 4: offense in America. It has gone right back into the

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Speaker 4: toilet now with CJ. Harris on the other side. Taikwon Finn.

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Speaker 4: He tried to come back from his own injury last

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Speaker 4: week after he missed a couple of weeks. He played

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Speaker 4: the first I don't know quarter and a half or

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Speaker 4: two quarters. They had to yank him because he very

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Speaker 4: clearly was not healthy and he played absolutely terribly. So

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Speaker 4: then Toledo ends up bringing in their backup quarterback Tucker

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Speaker 4: glees Fan but played really well in two spot starts

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Speaker 4: before that against Bowling Green and then somebody else I forget,

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Speaker 4: but then EMU was the other one. But then in

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Speaker 4: the Western Michigan game, Gleason was awful.

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Speaker 3: He was thirteen.

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Speaker 4: To get this, he was thirteen for thirty eight for

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Speaker 4: two hundred yards, one touchdown and one interception. But I

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Speaker 4: do have to give Tucker Gleeson the caveat that WMU

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Speaker 4: game WM you and Toledo, it was played in the blizzard,

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Speaker 4: whereas the other two games are played normal weather conditions,

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Speaker 4: So you do have to put a big asterisk on that.

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Speaker 4: The dropoff from Rourke to Harris is enormous, qualitatively, just

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Speaker 4: absolutely enormous. It can't be quantified. That the drop off

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Speaker 4: from Finn to Glease, and it's not nearly as big,

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Speaker 4: and Finn is not Finn's not as good as Rourke is.

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Speaker 4: So I guess what I'm short story long, the quarterbacks

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Speaker 4: being out it more is being taken off the table

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Speaker 4: from Ohio for sure. And then and then so then

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Speaker 4: you start to think about, well, what are these teams

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Speaker 4: left with. On the Ohio side, They can't pass anymore,

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Speaker 4: so they need to skew even more heavily towards their

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Speaker 4: run game. And that's the part where it's not gonna

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Speaker 4: the run game not gonna fall off a ton outside

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Speaker 4: of the part of now they're predictable. But the problem

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Speaker 4: for them here even qualitatively if it's not dropping off

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Speaker 4: a ton, is Toledo has one of the best G

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Speaker 4: five run defenses you know, in the entire G five.

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Speaker 4: Toledo has a solid pass defense too, but they shout

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Speaker 4: out your life in the run game, and and Ohio

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Speaker 4: really does not have a recourse away from that unless CJ.

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Speaker 3: Harris magically turns into Curtis Roar this week.

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Speaker 4: Whereas on the other side, Ohio's defense is awful and

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Speaker 4: we've we saw that Tucker Gleason Kid two separate times

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Speaker 4: this year play well against Mac defenses.

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Speaker 3: He went one and one.

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Speaker 4: In those two games, the the EMU game and the

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Speaker 4: and the Bowling Green game. But the Toledo's offense was

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Speaker 4: was clicking finding those games and they ended up putting

301
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Speaker 4: up points.

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Speaker 3: So like for me, I especially through through the air.

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Speaker 4: You know, like if as long as Gleason is playing

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Speaker 4: again like you did in the in the first two,

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Speaker 4: Toledo should be able to pile up the air yards

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Speaker 4: on Ohio. I have to play Toledo in this game

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Speaker 4: because the matchup of Toledo's run defense against that one

308
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Speaker 4: handed Ohio offense, it is so decidedly in Toledo's favor

309
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Speaker 4: and I think that Toledo's gonna be able to manufacture

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Speaker 4: some points. And if I was to Leeda on the total,

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Speaker 4: it would have to be the under just because of

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Speaker 4: the factors that I just said.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's go over to the Big twelve title

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Speaker 1: game here, and I mean, we've got this is gonna

315
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Speaker 1: be a fun one. Number three TCU a two and

316
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Speaker 1: a half point favorite against number ten Kansas State.

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Speaker 2: Sixty two is a total here.

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Speaker 1: This one's kind of down the middle, fifty one percent

319
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Speaker 1: of cash on Kansas State, seventy one percent of tickets

320
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Speaker 1: are on the Hypno toads. There fifty six percent of

321
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Speaker 1: cash on the over, sixty nine percent of tickets on

322
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Speaker 1: the over. How do you see the Big twelve title

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Speaker 1: game playing out thoor? Are we on TCU or case state?

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Speaker 3: Here, we're on the Hypno toads you talk about.

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Speaker 4: TCU not only started peaking and coalescing at the right time.

326
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Speaker 4: Like in the last game, they made Matt Campbell's defense,

327
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Speaker 4: which has been awesome all season, look like a high

328
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Speaker 4: school defense, just absolutely shredded it. And by the way,

329
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Speaker 4: that was without Quinton Johnston. And it was while they

330
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Speaker 4: were getting Kendray Miller back, who had missed time with injuries.

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Speaker 4: He came back and proved he his healthy last week,

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Speaker 4: including getting all the usage. And then they also got

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Speaker 4: Darius Davis back, their speed merchant, the field stretcher. But

334
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Speaker 4: Quinton john Since Sunny Dykes said after the game, he

335
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Speaker 4: could have played. It's just we didn't want to use

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Speaker 4: him unless we had to in this game. Otherwise we

337
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Speaker 4: were gonna save him, you know, basically, give him one

338
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Speaker 4: more more week to heal for the Big Twelve title game.

339
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Speaker 4: Quentin Johnson could be a top ten pick in April.

340
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Speaker 4: He's an absolute beast who cannot be covered one on one,

341
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Speaker 4: So obviously that's an enormous addition for the TCU offense.

342
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Speaker 4: They haven't had him for a couple of weeks. He's

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Speaker 4: going to be very difficult for Kansas State Kansas. On

344
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Speaker 4: the Kansas State side, they say that Adrian Martinez could

345
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Speaker 4: be back in this game.

346
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Speaker 3: I don't really care.

347
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Speaker 4: And by the way, as someone who's who's holding TCU tickets,

348
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Speaker 4: I hope Kansas State starts Adray Martinez. Adrian Martinez is

349
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Speaker 4: not as good as Will Howard number one and number two.

350
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Speaker 4: Will Howard matches up way better against the TCU defense

351
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Speaker 4: than Adrian Martinez does. Because the TCU defense, what it

352
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Speaker 4: stops is efficiency. What you can do against it is

353
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Speaker 4: get explosive plays. Duz Vaughan is going to get some

354
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Speaker 4: explosive plays here, like TCU is going to be able

355
00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:59,400
Speaker 4: to force Kansas State into some three and outs. They're

356
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Speaker 4: going to force them to punt, but Kansas State is

357
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Speaker 4: going to run into some home runs, specifically with Deuce

358
00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,280
Speaker 4: von a big key for Kansas State. It's Will Howard

359
00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:10,560
Speaker 4: connecting on the downfield shots. If he can do that

360
00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:13,880
Speaker 4: more than I'm projecting, that's where Kansas State becomes super

361
00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:18,520
Speaker 4: viable here. But Adrian Martinez categorically cannot take advantage downfield.

362
00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:21,920
Speaker 4: So you like, if you play Adrian Martinez, you're you're

363
00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:25,040
Speaker 4: just saying, Okay, one of your two defensive weaknesses, we're

364
00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:27,480
Speaker 4: just gonna leave that alone, and you know what whatever.

365
00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:31,320
Speaker 4: So like, you know, again, I'm expecting Will Howard to

366
00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:34,119
Speaker 4: play any matches up better here, but I'm still taking

367
00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:37,160
Speaker 4: TCU playing really well, getting healthy at the right time,

368
00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:39,280
Speaker 4: getting their best player back in this game.

369
00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:40,639
Speaker 3: It's all horn frogs for me.

370
00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:44,040
Speaker 1: We go over to the Sun Belt title game. Troy

371
00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:45,840
Speaker 1: is an eight and a half point fair against Coastal.

372
00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:49,200
Speaker 1: Forty eight is the total. Sixty seven percent of tickets

373
00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:52,280
Speaker 1: or cash excuse me, are on Coastal, fifty two percent

374
00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:55,240
Speaker 1: of tickets are on Troy, seventy seven percent of the

375
00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:57,119
Speaker 1: cash is on the under, sixty two percent of the

376
00:17:57,160 --> 00:18:00,200
Speaker 1: tickets on the over, so these are literally split down

377
00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:04,639
Speaker 1: the middle on both sides here. I believe this line

378
00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:07,280
Speaker 1: did drop from when it opened. I believe it was

379
00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:09,199
Speaker 1: ten or ten and a half earlier dropped down to

380
00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:11,640
Speaker 1: eight and a half. Maybe that means McCall is back

381
00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:14,800
Speaker 1: for Coastal Carolina. We're not real sure yet. What do

382
00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:17,399
Speaker 1: you think about this game or who wins it?

383
00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:21,400
Speaker 4: Well, all sorts of weird things have happened with this line.

384
00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:24,560
Speaker 4: When it actually first opened, it was like Troy minus

385
00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:26,399
Speaker 4: five and a half or something like that, and then

386
00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:28,760
Speaker 4: it immediately toggled, you know, seven and a half.

387
00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:30,480
Speaker 3: That's where I ended up buying the ticket.

388
00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:32,159
Speaker 4: Then it got up to eight and a half, and

389
00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:34,440
Speaker 4: then on I think it was Monday, where the thing

390
00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:37,399
Speaker 4: jumped into double digits, which is closer to where my

391
00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:40,439
Speaker 4: line is. Troy minus eleven point four is what my

392
00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:44,080
Speaker 4: just line is. But then oddly it toggled back to

393
00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:45,920
Speaker 4: eight and a half almost as quickly as it it

394
00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:49,280
Speaker 4: jumped up to double digits, and I'm not really sure why.

395
00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:52,360
Speaker 4: Like the line movements of this thing, they've been by

396
00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:55,000
Speaker 4: multiple points and not your usual half a point one,

397
00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,040
Speaker 4: So that stuff has been kind of bizarre to watch.

398
00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:00,520
Speaker 4: McCall's status, of course, is the important thing, and you

399
00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:02,959
Speaker 4: would think that that would be informing some of this,

400
00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:05,640
Speaker 4: but I don't know what positive news have been put

401
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:07,840
Speaker 4: out there that Grayson McCall is going to play.

402
00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:09,280
Speaker 3: You do the math on it.

403
00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:11,679
Speaker 4: From the day they announced that Grayson McCall is going

404
00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:14,920
Speaker 4: to miss the remainder of the regular season. They said

405
00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:17,480
Speaker 4: his timeline to return was three to six weeks. This

406
00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,200
Speaker 4: game is being played three weeks and three days after

407
00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:23,160
Speaker 4: that statement was made, so you're on the very front

408
00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:26,240
Speaker 4: end of it. Anyway, there has been no positive news

409
00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:29,040
Speaker 4: about Grayson McCall status outside of that, you know, and

410
00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:33,240
Speaker 4: specifically for this game. And then today there was a

411
00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:38,119
Speaker 4: couple of different reports by the Athletic including one of

412
00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:41,280
Speaker 4: them one of the reporters had Jamie Chadwell on their

413
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:44,399
Speaker 4: radio station. I'm looking for the quote right now. So

414
00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:48,919
Speaker 4: Chris Benini had had reported today that like he was

415
00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:51,719
Speaker 4: parsing the quotes or maybe he had interviewed Chadwell and

416
00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:55,280
Speaker 4: he had said that McCall status quote sounds doubtful to me.

417
00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:57,800
Speaker 3: End quote. And then Nicole.

418
00:19:57,520 --> 00:20:02,760
Speaker 4: Auerbach later on Wednesday, Chadwell on her radio show, I

419
00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:05,199
Speaker 4: think with the other she does a radio show with

420
00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:08,560
Speaker 4: another athletic guy. They have Jamie Chadwell on. They ask

421
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:12,320
Speaker 4: him about it. Jamie Chadwell outright states on the radio,

422
00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:16,399
Speaker 4: if the game were played today, I eat on Wednesday,

423
00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:21,360
Speaker 4: Grayson McCall could not play. He just outright stated that then.

424
00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:25,760
Speaker 4: So then he did say that he hopes.

425
00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:27,320
Speaker 3: You know that this is what the coaches always.

426
00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:29,439
Speaker 4: Say, Oh, I hope, we're hopeful that we can get

427
00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 4: him whatever. He said that McCall if he if he

428
00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:35,480
Speaker 4: can get healthy enough to practice over the next three days,

429
00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:38,760
Speaker 4: that Chadwell would love for him to be available for the.

430
00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:39,680
Speaker 3: Sunbell title game.

431
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:42,520
Speaker 4: What are the odds that he's going to be like tomorrow,

432
00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:44,800
Speaker 4: which is what it would have to be that all

433
00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 4: of a sudden miraculously he's he's gonna be healthy enough

434
00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 4: for that when today was what it was almost assuredly,

435
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:55,119
Speaker 4: Grayson McCall is not playing unless this is like a

436
00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:58,399
Speaker 4: Willis Reid type of a thing, or unless Jamie Chadwell

437
00:20:58,480 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 4: never run around that program is.

438
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 3: Just like fabulous ying. Yeah, unless they're awesome liars.

439
00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:06,359
Speaker 4: But like, I'm going under the assumption and that Grayson

440
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 4: McCall is not playing, So then we have to talk

441
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:11,920
Speaker 4: about their backup. This kid named Jared Guess. Jared Guest

442
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,040
Speaker 4: is throwing the ball forty three times this year. He's

443
00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:17,320
Speaker 4: completed forty four point two percent of them for three

444
00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:18,840
Speaker 4: hundred two yards and a one to.

445
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:20,480
Speaker 3: Four TDI and T ratio.

446
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:23,560
Speaker 4: He's thrown four four times as many interceptions as touchdowns,

447
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 4: and he also has not run the ball nearly as

448
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,600
Speaker 4: well as Grayson McCall. Grayson McCall twenty eight and three

449
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,439
Speaker 4: as a starter, he over his career seventy point two

450
00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:35,919
Speaker 4: percent completions, so almost thirty percent freaking higher than this

451
00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:39,159
Speaker 4: guest kid and bittally a small sample. And then Grayson

452
00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,480
Speaker 4: McCall seventy four to seven career td I and T rate,

453
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:46,760
Speaker 4: the guest kid only has three less interceptions than McCall

454
00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:50,800
Speaker 4: in forty three passes. Then McCall has in his entire career.

455
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:55,160
Speaker 4: Like the entire constitution of the offense changes, McCall being

456
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:57,639
Speaker 4: out and going to guests, it's worth at least ten points,

457
00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 4: I'm telling you, like, I mean, the whole thing changes, right,

458
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 4: And so you know, it's similar to what I was

459
00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 4: talking about with the Ohio thing, where the passing game

460
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 4: a coastal Now it has totally been taken away. What

461
00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 4: was previously an awesome passing offense now it's just gone.

462
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:13,920
Speaker 4: Now you can say for Coastal. They were a run

463
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 4: first team even with McCall and so now they're gonna

464
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:20,160
Speaker 4: lean even more heavily into the run. But they're one

465
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 4: handed number one, and then number two. You know again

466
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:24,879
Speaker 4: you're not getting the mobility out of the quarterback like

467
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,840
Speaker 4: you were before. And then number two. Troy's defense is

468
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 4: really really good. They'll shut your lights out, especially if

469
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:34,120
Speaker 4: you're a one handed offense. You can't be multiple. They

470
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:37,160
Speaker 4: know what's coming. Jamie Chadwell is a very good coach.

471
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 4: Like admittedly he is what he's I.

472
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,359
Speaker 1: Saw some stuff about him possibly being distracted because he

473
00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 1: could be getting offered some big time jobs too.

474
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 4: It's another we'll get to that. Just in terms of

475
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:52,880
Speaker 4: the offensive philosophy. What Chadwell wants to do is get

476
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 4: the ball into space, right, and he wants to force

477
00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 4: one on one tackle attempts, and that that stuff works

478
00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:00,600
Speaker 4: against most of the Sunbell defense to most of the

479
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:03,280
Speaker 4: G five ones. Troy is number ten in the nation

480
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:06,160
Speaker 4: in tackle right. Like most people are starting to learn

481
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,440
Speaker 4: the name of Carlton Marshall. There, they're little he man

482
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:13,119
Speaker 4: linebacker who's like breaking all the records for NCAA tackles

483
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 4: and stuff. Like that, but the entire defense is like that.

484
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,960
Speaker 4: They get to you and you're going down. So I mean,

485
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 4: like Coastal, you know, even outside the McCall thing, their

486
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:25,880
Speaker 4: offensive playmakers are not going to be breaking tackles on Saturday.

487
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 4: So if you think that's the way they're getting out

488
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 4: of this trap they found themselves, it's not happening. And

489
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:34,359
Speaker 4: then on the other side, Troy now you know, it's

490
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:36,119
Speaker 4: his pass for a sort of a deal, or at

491
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:39,679
Speaker 4: least it was. But they've become more balanced this season

492
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 4: on a hole, but especially in the last couple of weeks,

493
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:45,240
Speaker 4: Kamani Vidal, They're they're running back has gone ballistic these

494
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,160
Speaker 4: past couple of weeks, six hundred and thirty four yards

495
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 4: over the past four games. And they can still throw

496
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:53,440
Speaker 4: Gunner Watson's number twenty one in the nation in PFF

497
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:58,159
Speaker 4: passing grade. That that's all gonna work. Coastal's defense is

498
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,880
Speaker 4: not good and the Coastals pass defense in particular is awful.

499
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 4: Their secondary is bad. The success rate is one of

500
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 4: the worst in the nation. The explode like their Coastal's

501
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 4: pass defense one oh seven success rate number one seventeen

502
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:16,400
Speaker 4: in explosiveness. Here's the key though Watson should be able

503
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,400
Speaker 4: to shred that and the Troy defense should be able

504
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:21,479
Speaker 4: to shred that. But the one sort of ace up

505
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:24,120
Speaker 4: the sleeve of the Coastal pass defense is they do

506
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 4: have an abnormally high have it rate for a secondary

507
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 4: that gives up the numbers that they do.

508
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 3: So it's basically like a riverboat gambler.

509
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 4: And if you put the ball up for grabs, they're

510
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:37,240
Speaker 4: taking chances and they could flip the field. So this

511
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:39,680
Speaker 4: is a big one for gunner Watson. All the yardage

512
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:41,399
Speaker 4: that he would ever want is going to be on

513
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:41,879
Speaker 4: the table.

514
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 3: He just needs to not.

515
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 4: Be greedy and he'll get whatever he wants. But if

516
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 4: he gets greedy, Coastal could potentially flip the field on him.

517
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 4: But other than that, just sort of playing this thing

518
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 4: out and playing the thing conservatively on both offense and defense.

519
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 3: I just think Troy wipes the floor with Coastal.

520
00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:00,440
Speaker 4: Coastal last week was playing a similar team and James

521
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:03,639
Speaker 4: Madison and just got walloped because they couldn't do anything

522
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 4: on offense. Both their hands were tied behind their back.

523
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:07,639
Speaker 4: I like Trey to run away with this thing, and

524
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 4: I'm also going with the under in this game just

525
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 4: because again I don't see how Coastal scores points in

526
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:15,720
Speaker 4: this game, and Troy, it's not their prerogative to run

527
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,359
Speaker 4: this thing up that they don't do that anyway. They're

528
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 4: just gonna try to put their their hands on Coastal's head,

529
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,159
Speaker 4: let them flail away so they can't hit them. And

530
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:26,160
Speaker 4: then Troy's just gonna try to control the ball, whether

531
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:28,159
Speaker 4: it's through the run of the pass, whatever's working, and

532
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 4: just keep the clock running. Everything like that. And so

533
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with the under forty eight and a half.

534
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,880
Speaker 1: I gotta know which one of these teams is more

535
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 1: likely to upset? Is it LSU against Georgia or is

536
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:44,479
Speaker 1: it Perdue against Michigan both big spreads. For Georgia, they

537
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 1: are seventeen and a half point favorites, the over is

538
00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:49,399
Speaker 1: fifty one. In the SEC title game, that's number one,

539
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:53,120
Speaker 1: Veruse number fourteen SU, and then a Big Ten championship

540
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 1: is number two. Michigan is a seventeen point favorite against Purdue.

541
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 1: Fifty two is the over here. I think we both

542
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:04,640
Speaker 1: expect Georgia and Michigan to win clearly, but are they

543
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:07,679
Speaker 1: gonna cover? Are either one of these teams covering because

544
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,399
Speaker 1: this is you know, this is a super Bowl for LSU,

545
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 1: this is their biggest game of the year, same thing

546
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 1: for Purdue, even the bowl game not as big as

547
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,680
Speaker 1: this one, because you have a chance to potentially wreck

548
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:18,440
Speaker 1: a season here.

549
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:21,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, as far as who has the better odds to upset,

550
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 4: I would go with purdueing that one for a couple

551
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 4: different reasons. I think there's a couple of things in

552
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:31,679
Speaker 4: the matchup where not that they're gonna give Michigan trouble,

553
00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:34,200
Speaker 4: but at least where they can at least battle them

554
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:36,159
Speaker 4: to a draw, you know, or something like that. Like

555
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 4: Produce defense. It's like if you had to take a

556
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 4: team that was around the quality level of Purdue and

557
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:44,639
Speaker 4: then you had to construct a defense that could at

558
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 4: least sort of address Michigan's offense. Produce defense is basically

559
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 4: how you would want it to look because Produce defense

560
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,439
Speaker 4: is very strong in terms of efficiency. The thing it

561
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:59,679
Speaker 4: badly struggles at is getting gouged for explosive plays. Michigan's

562
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 4: offense is elite in terms of efficiency, and unless they're

563
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 4: playing Ohio State, they don't generate. It's well us to

564
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 4: play as every single every single play. What's gonna be

565
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 4: interesting here is number one. Can Donovan Edwards? You know, can,

566
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 4: I mean can he rip off a bunch of long

567
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 4: runs again, because they you know, the door could be

568
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,960
Speaker 4: open for that potentially, we hadn't seen a ton of

569
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 4: that earlier in the season. And then also JJ McCarthy,

570
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 4: they opened the playbook up for him last week. Are

571
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 4: they gonna do it again? They're gonna keep letting JJ

572
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 4: McCarthy throw it downfield. That's probably how I would attack

573
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,880
Speaker 4: produce defense, but like, I don't know what Harbos's prerogative

574
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:33,840
Speaker 4: will be in that, especially in a game where you

575
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:34,640
Speaker 4: should be able.

576
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 3: To control this one. Either way.

577
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 4: On the produce side, Aidan O'Connell is gonna play, He's

578
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 4: gonna start. They mentioned that O'Connell missed the first couple

579
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:43,720
Speaker 4: of practices of the week because he was off with

580
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:46,880
Speaker 4: his family because his brother sadly passed away earlier this week.

581
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 3: But his status is fine for this week. I heard that.

582
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:51,439
Speaker 1: Uh.

583
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 4: The other thing I should say is is Devin mackaby

584
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 4: there starting running back. He came back last week from

585
00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:59,479
Speaker 4: his injury the Purdue running back and he handled usage.

586
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 3: So he's gonna find in this game.

587
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:03,120
Speaker 4: But this is a really tough matchup for Macca because

588
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:05,919
Speaker 4: Michigan shuts down every run game that it sees. So

589
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 4: Aidan O'Connell has to have the game of his life

590
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:12,119
Speaker 4: to make Purdue viable here. But one other thing I

591
00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 4: thought I would mention. I was told earlier this week

592
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 4: that the odds of Blake Korum playing are not very good,

593
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 4: which didn't have anything to do because I asked if

594
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 4: it was a reaggravation. It didn't have anything to do

595
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 4: with that. It was just you got everybody saw it. Yeah,

596
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 4: I mean, he only had the two carries for the

597
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:34,399
Speaker 4: six yards or whatever. And the thinking, at least as

598
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:36,359
Speaker 4: it was told to me on the Michigan staff, is

599
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 4: in this game, you don't one thousand percent need it

600
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 4: because even if you lose, you're getting into the college

601
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 4: football playoff. Why would you push Korum again in the

602
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 4: last one. You could maybe see it, you know, you

603
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 4: at least make Ohio Skate prepare for it, you have

604
00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 4: him on the field, et cetera. And then you saw

605
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 4: that it wasn't work, and so then and then Donovan

606
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 4: Edwards absolutely was work, and so you're just like, all right,

607
00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 4: Donovan it's your day. But in this game, there's really

608
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 4: not a reason to push it. So I don't expect

609
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 4: to see Korum there. It's just Will Donovan Edwards rip

610
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 4: off the explosive runs Will Will McCarthy. And then that

611
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 4: same idea from the Michigan staff that does that mean

612
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 4: that they're gonna toggle this thing back?

613
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 3: Against Ohio State?

614
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 4: You saw them throw in the kitchen sink and go

615
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 4: for it in this game because of the things we

616
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 4: just talked about, are they gonna go vanilla scale things

617
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 4: back and just bleed the thing out? That is certainly

618
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:28,120
Speaker 4: in play, and that's what would consider you lay in

619
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 4: the points there.

620
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:33,720
Speaker 1: All right, So let's go over to the last couple

621
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 1: of games we have here. Mount West Conference championship game

622
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 1: is Boise State by three against Presco State. Fifty four

623
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 1: is a total there. AAC Championship is to Lane by four.

624
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 1: Fifty six and a half is the total against UCF

625
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 1: that's eighteen verse twenty two. And then the ACC Championship

626
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 1: door is number nine Clemson by seven and a half.

627
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 1: I guess number twenty three UNC it's sixty three and

628
00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 1: a half. I gotta tell you the out in West

629
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,880
Speaker 1: championship game scares me because you know, we know Boise

630
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 1: State did beat Presno State earlier this season, but that

631
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 1: was without Jay Caner. So I think I'm gonna take

632
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 1: Presno State in that game AAC championship.

633
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 2: I got no idea.

634
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:16,800
Speaker 1: You know, obviously a lot depends on John Rees plumbly

635
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 1: playing in that game or not playing in that game,

636
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:20,560
Speaker 1: although mikey Keen is a capable backup and it has

637
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 1: started games before. But I think I like Tulane in

638
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 1: that one and in the ACC Championship. I just do

639
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 1: not trust Clemson at all whatsoever.

640
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 2: I think Uns could win that game. Straight up.

641
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 1: I think they could get crushed. I'm not sure which

642
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 1: way to go. So help me out with those last

643
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 1: three conference championship games, or is there one that stands

644
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 1: out above the rest in terms of you wanting to

645
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 1: bet it?

646
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think the market by and large,

647
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 4: maybe not in totality, but is with you on Fresno

648
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 4: State because that line has come down to where it's

649
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:54,960
Speaker 4: you know, it's now three or whatever.

650
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 3: And before it was what was it four even four.

651
00:30:57,320 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 4: And a half maybe when it when it opened, and

652
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 4: it's just sort of coming down this is another one

653
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,400
Speaker 4: where I'm sort of stepping on the tracks against against

654
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 4: the market. I do prefer Boise statean that your points

655
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:11,240
Speaker 4: while taking on Hayner, it obviously changes the constitution of

656
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 4: the match up and up the handicap. So just you

657
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 4: can just completely toss out that the first game where

658
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 4: Poise State boat race the backup quarterback at Fresno, So

659
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 4: you just think about it with Haynter here and with

660
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 4: Hayn Fresno State is one seventh straight, or more accurately,

661
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 4: they've won five straight because the first two of those

662
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 4: was with the backup and they become the different team.

663
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 4: But Poise State has also become a different team ever

664
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:36,360
Speaker 4: since they fired their alca. They told old Hank Bachmeier like,

665
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 4: thanks for the memories, but you could see yourself out

666
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 4: the door. And then they brought back Dirk Cutter, their

667
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 4: old buddy, and then they installed this Taylon Green, this

668
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 4: six six, two hundred and fifteen pound freak freshman from Texas.

669
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 4: I don't know how Boise State does their recruiting or

670
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 4: how they unearth some of these guys, or how some

671
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 4: of these other bigger programs miss guys like this, But

672
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 4: Taylon Green a dynamic dual threat guy that I think

673
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 4: fres State.

674
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 3: Is going to have some problems corralling here.

675
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 4: Going back to the Boise State side, I think the

676
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 4: reason that that this is a problematic matchup for Fresno

677
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 4: State is Boise State has an awesome pass defense. Boise

678
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 4: State's number six in success rate, number nine in efficiency

679
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 4: in their in their past defense.

680
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 3: That's exactly what.

681
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 4: Not only Fresno State wants to do, the Fresno State

682
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 4: passing attack wants to do.

683
00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:23,400
Speaker 3: Hayter is not a super explosive passer.

684
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 4: It's all about the completions, the timing, and then the

685
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 4: yet and putting guys in the position for the yak yardage.

686
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 4: That's exactly what Boise State's pass defense takes off the table. Well,

687
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:34,320
Speaker 4: you can what you where you can beat Boise State.

688
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 4: It's down the field. Dad ain't Hayner's game. He doesn't

689
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 4: got the arm for it. And then you know on

690
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 4: you know, flipping it, uh the other way. The the

691
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 4: the uh secondary of Fresno State in the overall pass

692
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 4: defense is their strength. Fresno secondary actually ranks number one

693
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 4: in the nation in havoc and like I said, just

694
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 4: a very good overall pass defense, where they've struggled all

695
00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 4: season long is against the run, doesn't matter if Hayner's in,

696
00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 4: doesn't matter when they had the backup end whatever. Their

697
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 4: defense has gotten gouged on the ground all year long.

698
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 4: Boise State's are run first team. That is a dynamic

699
00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:10,120
Speaker 4: rushing team. They've always been good running the bucks. They

700
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 4: always have the good running backs, and they recruit the

701
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,560
Speaker 4: offensive line really well. Now for the first time ever,

702
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 4: you add into that this dynamic dual threat quarterback that

703
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 4: has all the value with his legs.

704
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 3: So that's why I prefer Boise State there.

705
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 4: And of course Boise State has the game at home

706
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:27,040
Speaker 4: and everything like that. The next one, the AAC title game.

707
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 4: I'm on two lane in that one, especially with it

708
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 4: only being three. I actually got a ticket on them

709
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 4: on Sunday for two and a half, but even at

710
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 4: the three, happy to play that two Lane's got a

711
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:40,960
Speaker 4: couple of different things going on. Number one, I think

712
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 4: they match up well here and number two, I think

713
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 4: they have an enormous motivation edge, and I suppose if

714
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 4: I want to go to number three, they also have

715
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:52,000
Speaker 4: the home field edge. But just speaking to the matchup thing,

716
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 4: in the first game, you know, you see it beat

717
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 4: them by a touchdown, and it was in the same venue.

718
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 3: It was in New Orleans.

719
00:33:57,560 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 4: But the reason that you see up beat two lane

720
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 4: the first time around was because John rice Plumbley went

721
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 4: berserk on the ground. He ran for like one hundred

722
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 4: and seventy yards or it was one hundred and seventy

723
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:10,760
Speaker 4: six yards and two touchdowns on the ground. And UCF

724
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:14,040
Speaker 4: as a team ran for over three hundred in that game,

725
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 4: John rice Plumley making up over half of them. John

726
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 4: rice Plumbley, though not only did he get injured in

727
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 4: the last game, John rice Plumbley has not finished four

728
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 4: of ucf last five games. Mikey Keene has had to

729
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 4: come off the bench or one of the five of them.

730
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 4: Mikey Keing just played the entire game. That was when

731
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 4: John rice Plumley had a concussion. But John riith Plumpy

732
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:36,800
Speaker 4: has had three different injuries this year. It's the concussion,

733
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 4: I'm sorry, this past month. Concussion. He had a shoulder thing,

734
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:43,840
Speaker 4: and now he has a pulled hamstring and like the

735
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,000
Speaker 4: hamstring thing came up and it's like man, wow, you know,

736
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 4: added to.

737
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 3: The laundry list.

738
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:50,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, and then gusmell Zon comes out this week and

739
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 4: he's like, oh, guys, don't worry about the hamstring injury.

740
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:55,799
Speaker 4: He's been dealing with that all month. It's like, wait,

741
00:34:56,280 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 4: oh yeah, well along with the other stuff. And when

742
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 4: you start to think about John Rice Plumbley was the

743
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:06,399
Speaker 4: guy who sort of single handedly beat Tulane the first time,

744
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:09,759
Speaker 4: and very specifically his legs, and then he started to consider, well,

745
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 4: if John Rice Plumbley's playing, and certainly that's what Gus

746
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 4: mel's On is putting out there, he will almost assuredly

747
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:17,640
Speaker 4: not have his normal mobility, not the mobility that he

748
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 4: had in the last one. So it's not gonna hurt

749
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 4: Tulane as much in that regard, and Tulane also should

750
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 4: have a better game plan for it.

751
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:26,279
Speaker 3: But the other thing is he could go out of

752
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:28,360
Speaker 3: the game literally any time. Again.

753
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 4: Four of the last five games he has been knocked

754
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:33,279
Speaker 4: out of or been unable to play. So one hit

755
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:36,360
Speaker 4: and he's gone. And then his backup Mikey Kean. Mikey

756
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 4: Kean's a solid backup quarterback for college football, especially for

757
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 4: the G five. He's probably one of the better backup

758
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:43,800
Speaker 4: quarterbacks of the G five and he's actually a better

759
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 4: thrower than plumb Lee, but he is not near the

760
00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 4: running threat.

761
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 3: I mean it's not even close. He's not a running threat.

762
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:54,320
Speaker 4: So like it entirely takes that away, and obviously Gusmelson's

763
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 4: offensive scheme is really catered to that. The run defense

764
00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 4: of TWU lane is the one area where you can

765
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,280
Speaker 4: try to, you know, get them on and that's obviously

766
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 4: what UCF at the last time. Tulane's pass defense is awesome,

767
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 4: like it's it's really really good for the G five,

768
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 4: UCF isn't going to be able to throw on them

769
00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:12,720
Speaker 4: either way. They have to do it through the ground,

770
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 4: and plumbing was the major one. The other area sort

771
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:20,839
Speaker 4: of flipping the field. UCF's run defense had like it's

772
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 4: it's okay in terms of the efficiency stuff and the

773
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:26,240
Speaker 4: success rate and stuff like that, but it it rains

774
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:28,160
Speaker 4: near the bottom of the nation in terms of the

775
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 4: rate of explosive runs that it allows, which you saw

776
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 4: in the last game. Even though so Taj Spears he

777
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 4: only had I think it was eight runs total in

778
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:40,880
Speaker 4: the last game, but he had like he had like

779
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 4: one hundred and some yards because like every you know,

780
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:47,839
Speaker 4: like he had these explosives. It was I'm sorry, eight

781
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 4: carries for one hundred and thirty years Taj Spears had

782
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:52,879
Speaker 4: in the last game against UCF. It's just the two

783
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:54,840
Speaker 4: lane had to go away from the run game early

784
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:57,359
Speaker 4: because they were playing from behind. I think you're gonna

785
00:36:57,360 --> 00:37:00,800
Speaker 4: see Taj, like Willie Fritz assuredly, the game plan is

786
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 4: going to be get Tadd Spears the ball early and often,

787
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:07,040
Speaker 4: and the matchup is almost even better probably for Michael

788
00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 4: Pratt like in terms of the completions, like, I think

789
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:12,640
Speaker 4: that they're gonna be able to stay on schedule with that,

790
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:14,360
Speaker 4: They're gonna be able to hit the home runs in

791
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:16,719
Speaker 4: the ground game. And then you got the game at

792
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 4: home again. And then in terms of the motivation thing, uh,

793
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:22,920
Speaker 4: this is TWU Lane's first time in the AAC title game.

794
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 4: They talked a lot about that a couple of weeks

795
00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 4: wanting to get here, they wanted to host this game,

796
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:29,719
Speaker 4: and they got it done by beating Cincinnati. And then

797
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:33,239
Speaker 4: you have the added motivation of the Willy Fritz thing,

798
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 4: where earlier in the week it looked like, you know,

799
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 4: it was reported that he was the top candidate at

800
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:42,360
Speaker 4: Georgia Tech and now uh not right, like Willy Fritz

801
00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 4: came out the same day that the Georgia Tech uh

802
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 4: you know, took the interim take off of keys or whatever,

803
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 4: and and Willy Fritz you know, reaffirmed his you know,

804
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 4: his his commitment to Tulane, which it seems like Willy

805
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 4: Fritz told Georgia Tech like thanks but but but no thanks.

806
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 4: And so I think that's also a galvanizing factor for

807
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:02,239
Speaker 4: tu Lane. For me base, everything is pushing towards or

808
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 4: pointing towards Tulane here and by the way, Tulane also

809
00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 4: had the best cover rate in America this year, tied

810
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:09,320
Speaker 4: with Oregon State ten and two against the spread. Really

811
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:11,400
Speaker 4: like Twu Lane in that spot, going with the green

812
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:13,839
Speaker 4: or going with the green wave. And was there one

813
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 4: other one that we were gonna.

814
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:18,359
Speaker 2: Acc the Clemson unc acc one.

815
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:21,080
Speaker 4: I think I forgot to hit on Shadwell by the way,

816
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 4: I was gonna circle back to that.

817
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:24,279
Speaker 3: Chadwell. His his thing's still up in the air.

818
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 4: He's still like a leading candidate at a couple of places.

819
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 4: That's something to keep an eye on. With the coastal

820
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:31,719
Speaker 4: thing against against Troy, because he has not Dallas the

821
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:33,640
Speaker 4: flames with that in the same way that Willie Fritz

822
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:35,319
Speaker 4: that the.

823
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:36,760
Speaker 3: The Clemson Clemson North Carolina.

824
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 4: I had the hardest time handicapping that side because my

825
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 4: my adjusted number was right around where the Vegas line is.

826
00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:46,680
Speaker 4: And not only that, I don't know how you could

827
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 4: trust either of these teams, you know, I mean, like

828
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:51,760
Speaker 4: season long, but like especially after the past couple of weeks.

829
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 4: Clemson just gets stunned by South Carolina. They've been a

830
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:57,319
Speaker 4: wonky team all season. You can't you can't put your

831
00:38:57,320 --> 00:38:57,920
Speaker 4: finger on him.

832
00:38:58,200 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 3: And then you n c there.

833
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:02,759
Speaker 4: They're this extremely lopsided team with the awesome offense and

834
00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 4: the horrid defense, and they had somehow overcome circumstances to

835
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:08,440
Speaker 4: go nine to one, and it's like, man, this team,

836
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:10,879
Speaker 4: who knows they could they might even make the College

837
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:13,080
Speaker 4: Football playoff? Who knows Drake may might win the Heisman

838
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:15,400
Speaker 4: as a true freshman. And then they fall in their

839
00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 4: face against Georgia Tech inexplicably, and then last week they

840
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:22,880
Speaker 4: lose to NC State's four string quarterback in double overtime,

841
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:25,800
Speaker 4: and so it's like it's tough for you know again,

842
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:27,359
Speaker 4: like one of these teams is going to get off

843
00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 4: the mat assuredly. It was just too hard for me

844
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:32,479
Speaker 4: to make a referendum on that. The play I'm making

845
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 4: in that game is the over. My system's got a

846
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 4: total on that game of sixty nine. The live line

847
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 4: it looks like it's sixty three and a half, so

848
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:43,480
Speaker 4: I'm showing value on the over. I also think this

849
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:47,280
Speaker 4: game just points at it. Like I said, UNC's defense

850
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 4: is an absolute abomination and it's terrible against both the

851
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 4: run and the pass. I know Will Shipley's going to

852
00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:55,520
Speaker 4: have an enormous game. So another bet I'm tossin, Actually

853
00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 4: I don't have the number because it's not out yet,

854
00:39:57,040 --> 00:40:00,279
Speaker 4: but take the Will Shipley over rushing problems. Yeah, he's

855
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:03,320
Speaker 4: going to get there unless he gets injured assuredly. So

856
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:05,560
Speaker 4: Clemson in this game is going to be able to

857
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 4: stay on schedule. The chains will constantly be moving, and Dju,

858
00:40:09,200 --> 00:40:11,840
Speaker 4: who struggled mightily in the last game against South Carolina

859
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 4: and he's at his bout of struggles all season long,

860
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:16,800
Speaker 4: in some ways, he is not going to get stranded

861
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:19,719
Speaker 4: in those third and long situations that Clemson does not

862
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:21,279
Speaker 4: want him to get in. They're not going to be

863
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:23,399
Speaker 4: in those against North Carolina. So it's a much more

864
00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 4: advantageous scenario for DJU. Also UNC's pass defense things, and

865
00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 4: also UNC doesn't generate any havoc or.

866
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 3: Pass rush whatsoever.

867
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 4: So DJU is just going to be able to sit

868
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 4: back there in advantageous down in distance scenarios and and

869
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:38,600
Speaker 4: sort of do what he wants.

870
00:40:38,719 --> 00:40:40,960
Speaker 3: It sets up as a bounce back game for DJU.

871
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:42,759
Speaker 4: Will he be able to take advantage, I don't know,

872
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:46,320
Speaker 4: But I also know that even though Doabo Sweeney refuses

873
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 4: to take him out of the starting lineup, Doabo has

874
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 4: yanked him in two big spots this year against Syracuse

875
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:54,799
Speaker 4: and against Notre Dame for Klubnik, the true freshman, the

876
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 4: five star, the vallet who get If DJU is not

877
00:40:57,680 --> 00:40:59,799
Speaker 4: getting it done against UNC and they fall behind, they

878
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:02,200
Speaker 4: have to come back. You're getting Klubnik in there, and

879
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 4: they're gonna pass pass pass, so you know, speaking speaking

880
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:07,239
Speaker 4: to the over thing and then flipping the field to

881
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:10,239
Speaker 4: the other side UNC's offense. You know, up up until

882
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:14,080
Speaker 4: these past couple of games, specifically that Jordier Tech one,

883
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 4: but it had been one of the best in the

884
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:18,359
Speaker 4: nation and is one of the two or three best

885
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 4: in terms of fishing for big plays, especially in the

886
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:22,680
Speaker 4: passing game. They probably the best depassing team in the

887
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 4: entire nation. Drake May is number two PFF Deep Passing

888
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 4: Grade and he's easily number one in the nation in

889
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:33,399
Speaker 4: PFF big time throw rate down field. UNC also has

890
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:36,719
Speaker 4: three different receivers who great in the top forty one

891
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:40,840
Speaker 4: of the nation in PFF PFF Deep Passing Grade, So

892
00:41:41,120 --> 00:41:43,839
Speaker 4: balls that are twenty plus yards downfield. So UNC has

893
00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:46,960
Speaker 4: a whole coterie of receivers that can go downfield and

894
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:47,800
Speaker 4: get it and Drake.

895
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 3: May and get it there.

896
00:41:48,920 --> 00:41:51,719
Speaker 4: Well, Clemson's defense, which we came into the year, you know, oh,

897
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:53,799
Speaker 4: Clemson defense is going to be awesome, And I was

898
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:56,200
Speaker 4: forwarding this like I thought Clemson front seven could be

899
00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:58,520
Speaker 4: one of the best we've seen the last decade. It's

900
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 4: been extremely inconsistent, the secondary has been extremely inconsistent, and

901
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:05,880
Speaker 4: Clemson's been giving up explosive plays all season long. Last

902
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:07,880
Speaker 4: week they gave up it was like six or seven,

903
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:11,240
Speaker 4: I'm sorry, they gave a five to twenty plus passing

904
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 4: yard plays to Spencer Rattler. Spencer Raller throws for three

905
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 4: hundred and sixty passing yards. Another thing to mention here,

906
00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:22,239
Speaker 4: Clemson starting safety R J. Mickens will not play in

907
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:24,520
Speaker 4: the first half of this game because he got ejected

908
00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 4: in the third quarter against South Carolina. So half of

909
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 4: Clemson's safeties are not playing in for half the game,

910
00:42:31,600 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 4: and they already have the big time issue with the

911
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 4: deep throwing, which UNC might be the best team in

912
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:39,480
Speaker 4: the nation at getting the one thing that Clemson defense

913
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:40,160
Speaker 4: has going for him.

914
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 3: They're number five.

915
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:45,360
Speaker 4: In havoc and UNC is okay at avoiding it, but

916
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 4: the pass rush should should get there. I'm the one

917
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 4: thing you can say for Drake May about this. He's

918
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:54,479
Speaker 4: not like most freshmen that struggle under pressure. Drake May's

919
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:57,399
Speaker 4: number eight in PFF passing grade under pressure. So we'll

920
00:42:57,400 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 4: see how he deals with that. But even if he

921
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:02,080
Speaker 4: makes you know, some enormous it throws it to him,

922
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 4: the ball is going to be going the other way,

923
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:06,399
Speaker 4: So it's probably gonna be going towards our over bet.

924
00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:08,799
Speaker 3: Anyway. I really like the over in this one, but

925
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:10,919
Speaker 3: I just can't touch the side.

926
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:12,120
Speaker 1: All right.

927
00:43:12,200 --> 00:43:14,480
Speaker 2: Well, look that is gonna wrap it up for us.

928
00:43:14,760 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 1: On the Conference championship preview show, that was a lot

929
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:20,120
Speaker 1: of talking thor thank you for making all the points.

930
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:23,919
Speaker 1: Let's run it down one more time, and just give

931
00:43:23,960 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 1: me the team you're picking. In each of these conference

932
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:31,359
Speaker 1: championship games. You were taking UTSA, Utah. Did you say

933
00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:36,839
Speaker 1: Toledo or Ohio? In the MAC title game, Toledo, Toledo, TCU,

934
00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:38,240
Speaker 1: Troy Is that correct?

935
00:43:38,440 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 2: Over?

936
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:43,319
Speaker 4: Yeah, col Troy, and the under of that game Georgia LSU.

937
00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 4: So I bought a Georgia minus sixteen and a half

938
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:48,600
Speaker 4: ticket on Sunday. With that line at seventeen and a half,

939
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:52,279
Speaker 4: that's where I get trepidacious. I couldn't take LSU, but

940
00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 4: with the seventeen and a half number, it gets tough.

941
00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:56,400
Speaker 4: But I still would lean George MyD justin line on.

942
00:43:56,440 --> 00:43:59,200
Speaker 4: That's actually Georgia minus twenty point four, So I would

943
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:00,719
Speaker 4: have to lean towards Georgia if I had to.

944
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:04,839
Speaker 1: Still on Georgia, Boise State or Fresno State, Boise State,

945
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:09,160
Speaker 1: Boise State, We're on Tulane, We're on we don't know.

946
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:13,960
Speaker 1: In the a CC title game UNC or Clemson, we're

947
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:16,480
Speaker 1: taking the over in that one, I'll take North Carolina.

948
00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:19,799
Speaker 1: And then the Big Ten Title game, we're on Michigan. So,

949
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:22,920
Speaker 1: uh is that all correct? Everything's right?

950
00:44:23,400 --> 00:44:23,960
Speaker 3: Last one?

951
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:28,600
Speaker 4: The Michigan one is tough for me, but yeah, we can.

952
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:32,279
Speaker 4: We could say that one. I that's a that's a

953
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:33,040
Speaker 4: really tough.

954
00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:33,239
Speaker 3: One for me.

955
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:35,680
Speaker 2: Maybe don't bet on the Big Ten title game. The

956
00:44:35,719 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 2: other onies we have good leads.

957
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:40,560
Speaker 3: Just to disagree with you, I'll lean Purdue in that

958
00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:42,399
Speaker 3: one one. That one's really close.

959
00:44:42,440 --> 00:44:45,279
Speaker 4: My system has a really close all the all handicaps

960
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:45,960
Speaker 4: really close.

961
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:48,840
Speaker 1: To the Follow him at thor K, you follow me

962
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:51,840
Speaker 1: at Bogman Sports. We're putting together a plan for the

963
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:52,440
Speaker 1: Bowl shows.

964
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:52,960
Speaker 3: Uh.

965
00:44:53,120 --> 00:44:55,840
Speaker 1: We will of course tweet it as we'll betting pros

966
00:44:56,120 --> 00:44:59,800
Speaker 1: as soon as we get organized and settled and decide

967
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:01,919
Speaker 1: we'll we're doing there, so that will be out soon.

968
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:04,600
Speaker 1: Appreciate you guys hanging out with us all season long.

969
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:06,320
Speaker 1: We'll be back for Bulls in a couple of weeks.

970
00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:10,800
Speaker 1: Take it easy everyone and enjoy the conference championship games.

971
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:20,759
Speaker 2: Have a good one.