WEBVTT - Piper Sandler's Nancy Lazar Talks US Eco Data, Inflation

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>This is a blur for Paul and I. It is

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<v Speaker 2>just an extraordinary advantage of wonderful conversations. And then somebody

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<v Speaker 2>will say something which sticks with me. I'm walking down

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<v Speaker 2>the street six months later, I'm going damn that.

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<v Speaker 3>Nancy Lois.

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<v Speaker 2>She said something last year that made up my interview

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<v Speaker 2>of the year of this American labor economy joining us

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<v Speaker 2>now from Piper Sandler, their chief global economists. Truly iconic,

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<v Speaker 2>Nancy Lazarre, you basically said the strong labor economy is

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<v Speaker 2>a fiction, it's all government and healthcare supported, and that

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<v Speaker 2>the private investment in private jobs formation is broken. What

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<v Speaker 2>does a war do to that?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, that was a year ago, as you said, and

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<v Speaker 1>I would actually argue that you're starting to see a

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<v Speaker 1>healing in the private sector labor market now, to be sure,

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<v Speaker 1>will curb business confidence. But wait a second, I just

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<v Speaker 1>got a bunch of business confidence surveys, a group of

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<v Speaker 1>manufacturing surveys through March which captured the war and the

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<v Speaker 1>increase of the price of oil and their employment in

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<v Speaker 1>disease actually rose. So I think you have to look

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<v Speaker 1>at the economy broader than just a war and increase

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<v Speaker 1>in the price of oil.

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<v Speaker 2>I look at the Guadalcanal Low how miserable we were

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<v Speaker 2>in forty one, forty two into that battle in the

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<v Speaker 2>South Pacific that we didn't want to talk about at

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<v Speaker 2>the time. And then up, up, and away we went

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<v Speaker 2>for a year, basically for years into the deflationary fifties.

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<v Speaker 2>I guess is it the same thing as well, that

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<v Speaker 2>this work could be a stimulus of sorts.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not sure the war itself is a stimulus other

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<v Speaker 1>than the backbone of the US economy is indeed strong.

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<v Speaker 1>We've had surges in the price of oil several times

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<v Speaker 1>over the past thirty forty years. Obviously, in the nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>ninety Golf War, the economy wasn't as strong then as

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<v Speaker 1>it is today, but boy, as that thing ended, oil

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<v Speaker 1>prices came down strong. Obviously, the next leg was the

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<v Speaker 1>US tech Revolution, and then after two thousand and eight

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<v Speaker 1>you also had a surge in the price of price

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<v Speaker 1>of oil. Then you had almost a decade prior to COVID,

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<v Speaker 1>a decade of a stronger US economy supported by domestic

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<v Speaker 1>capital spending. We had, even more recently a surge in

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<v Speaker 1>the price of oil Obviously, back in twenty one, you

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<v Speaker 1>went from fifty to one hundred and twenty dollars. The

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<v Speaker 1>US economy stumbled slightly in the first part of twenty two,

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<v Speaker 1>but then we took off again, supported by supported by

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<v Speaker 1>capital spending. So the thing that I keep reminding myself

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<v Speaker 1>is that the economy is not just driven by one variable.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not just oil. It's a function of monetary physical

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<v Speaker 1>policy in general. And physical policy right now is underappreciated

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<v Speaker 1>as a support what I would call the right way,

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<v Speaker 1>not through a boom in government spending, but companies have

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<v Speaker 1>just seen one hundred and eighty billion decline in their

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<v Speaker 1>tax cash tax payments because they're incentivized to do capital spending.

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<v Speaker 1>Deregulation is underway, and that's beneficial to small medium sized businesses.

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<v Speaker 1>I hear particularly from the banking banking system. Banks are

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<v Speaker 1>easing lending lending standards. So right now, we for sure

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<v Speaker 1>are at risk of the US economy slowing stalling out

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<v Speaker 1>depends upon how long sure surgeon the price of oil

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<v Speaker 1>goes on. But this is a pretty strong economy.

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<v Speaker 3>How's the US consumer doing with this backdrop here?

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<v Speaker 1>So the consumer is a little bit in a tug

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<v Speaker 1>of war. On one hand, they obviously consumer confidence is down.

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<v Speaker 1>We have a daily survey of consumer confidence, which is

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<v Speaker 1>a little nuts but it works, and it is down

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<v Speaker 1>about fifteen points. But it's still above where it was

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<v Speaker 1>during the government shutdown, way above where it was during

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<v Speaker 1>the COVID low, way above where it was during the

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<v Speaker 1>GF during the GFC, So confidence, consumer confidence has gotten hit.

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<v Speaker 1>But at the same time, we monitor your weekly retail

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<v Speaker 1>sales data and actually they through mid March we're on

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<v Speaker 1>the stronger side. That is, again, consumer is driven by

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<v Speaker 1>more than just gasoline. We have these tax refunds, to

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<v Speaker 1>be sure, some of them are being eaten up by

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<v Speaker 1>the higher gasoline prices. But the labor market, as I mentioned,

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<v Speaker 1>if you look at unemployment claims, and I'm seeing more

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<v Speaker 1>and more commentary on Bloomberg on other news programs that, wow,

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<v Speaker 1>the labor market may not be as weak as I thought.

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<v Speaker 1>Claims are indeed in a declining trends. That's helping the consumer.

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<v Speaker 3>So how do we think about inflation here? Because you

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<v Speaker 3>did mention consumers are seeing it at the pump, a

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<v Speaker 3>big increase, and we'll probably see it in other parts

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<v Speaker 3>of the economy. As it higher energy costs flow through

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<v Speaker 3>to you know, fertilizers and food and all that type

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<v Speaker 3>of stuff. How do you think better inflation?

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<v Speaker 1>So first, energy spikes are a tax on the US

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<v Speaker 1>economy unless the Fed monetizes them, as they did during

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<v Speaker 1>the nineteen seventies.

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<v Speaker 3>So we do that bike just cutting rates.

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<v Speaker 1>Cutting rates, putting liquidity in the economy. You had double

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<v Speaker 1>digit money growth in the seventies, very very and you

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<v Speaker 1>had double digit money growth twenty one twenty two, which

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<v Speaker 1>is why inflation was indeed more sticky. But similar to

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<v Speaker 1>a year ago when you had the tariffs. Almost a

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<v Speaker 1>year ago you had the tariffs. Our point then was

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<v Speaker 1>it was a tax and you did see one price

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<v Speaker 1>went up, other prices went down, And so I think

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<v Speaker 1>you're going to see the same thing today. Energy takes

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<v Speaker 1>time to flow through to overall GDP consumer spending. It

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<v Speaker 1>very quickly impacts the CPI. So the March CPI will

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<v Speaker 1>be bad zero point six, zero point seven percent, But

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<v Speaker 1>again it's a tax. I. Think as you go through

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<v Speaker 1>the year, you can see other prices go down.

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<v Speaker 2>What's the state of American capitalism? Now you've done so

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<v Speaker 2>much thinking about the arc of the larger picture, now,

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<v Speaker 2>how do we incentivize ourselves to better productivity, better prosperity.

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<v Speaker 1>So I was actually in Europe last week and I

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<v Speaker 1>have a chart of US productivity relative to Europe and

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<v Speaker 1>the rest of the world. Yeah, no, it's it's we.

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<v Speaker 2>Just worked longer hours. As I look at Alexis Christopher's

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<v Speaker 2>over there, and we French have the same productivity we do.

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<v Speaker 2>They just worked less hours.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, they're smarter than we are.

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<v Speaker 1>Actually, actually they don't. But we also invest in technology.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm just sitting in this beautiful room and again I

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<v Speaker 1>heard over and over again that Europe is indeed way

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<v Speaker 1>behind from an investment perspective, from a technological innovation, embracing it,

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<v Speaker 1>allowing creative destruction which they don't allow, which we do.

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<v Speaker 1>And so productivity has been in an accelerating trend for

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<v Speaker 1>about ten years. We're back up to something close to

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<v Speaker 1>two two and a half percent. And given all the

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<v Speaker 1>R and D that's going on right now within corporate

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<v Speaker 1>America and being incentivized to do more R and D

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<v Speaker 1>through the tax to the tax legislation, we think productivity

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<v Speaker 1>growth can move up towards three percent. So the state

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<v Speaker 1>of American capitalism with these capex incentives, with deregulation, we

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<v Speaker 1>think is pretty healthy.

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<v Speaker 3>There's little to no population growth in this country these days.

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<v Speaker 3>So for this economy to grow, can it grow because

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<v Speaker 3>of increased productivity? Maybe AI enhancing that bingo?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean so much. I hear from Wall Street, Oh,

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<v Speaker 1>the fantastic cut rates because there's no labor force growth,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's like, wait, potential GDP growth is two has

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<v Speaker 1>two components. One is labor force growth population growth, and

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<v Speaker 1>the other is productivity growth. And they seem to forget

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<v Speaker 1>about that, and productivity growth is boosting. All you have

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<v Speaker 1>to do is look at the CBO data. CBO has

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<v Speaker 1>data on potential GDP growth and it has moved up

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<v Speaker 1>to about two and a half percent, which I don't

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<v Speaker 1>hear anybody talking about, which suggests that real interest rates

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<v Speaker 1>are about right. We don't need cuts and interostrates obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>now the community is talking about higher rates. We don't

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<v Speaker 1>think that either, simply because this is a tax on

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<v Speaker 1>the economy. FED policy is not overly aggressive. So at

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<v Speaker 1>the end of the day, we think rates are about right.

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<v Speaker 3>So I mean again, if you look at the w

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<v Speaker 3>I RP function on the Bloomberg criminal the market kind

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<v Speaker 3>of agrees with you. I mean to get some people

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<v Speaker 3>looking for a little bit because I don't.

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<v Speaker 2>Know how to look up to help you, Paul, where

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<v Speaker 2>are we on that we're looking at no rate, nothing out.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean kind of just got that we have problem.

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<v Speaker 1>It is. We had that call before the oil shot,

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<v Speaker 1>before the war. Because again, we have a fiscal policy

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<v Speaker 1>which is stimulative to growth, so that about one and

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<v Speaker 1>a half percent of GDP. It's again it's the right stimulus,

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<v Speaker 1>it's tax and center of its capex incentives. Second, the

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<v Speaker 1>Fed has already cut rates one hundred and seventy five

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<v Speaker 1>bases points. They're below nominal GDP growth. And then and

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<v Speaker 1>then third, banks are easing lending standards, and so there

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<v Speaker 1>is liquidity in the economy.

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<v Speaker 3>What do you think about this whole AI thing? How

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<v Speaker 3>do you put that into context? Because you know, prior

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<v Speaker 3>to this war, that was it for the market. It

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<v Speaker 3>was all AI. It's all we talked about. How do

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<v Speaker 3>you think about it in terms of how big is

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<v Speaker 3>it going to be for this economy?

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<v Speaker 1>So, as Tom often reminds views, I've been in the

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<v Speaker 1>business a long time and I started in the nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>in the nineteen eighties when there were computers.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, for the first calculator, Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>That was in the seventies, in the eighties. I remember

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<v Speaker 1>that too. In high school in the in the eighties,

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<v Speaker 1>we went from a typewriter and a terminal to a

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<v Speaker 1>computer and it was IBM at the time. And that

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<v Speaker 1>was very, very disruptive. I mean, accounts, et cetera. All

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<v Speaker 1>of a sudden you could do things very quickly on computers.

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<v Speaker 1>And the productivity that created, or the for I worked

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<v Speaker 1>at C. J. Lawrence, was tremendous. It didn't it did

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<v Speaker 1>make a huge difference. And over the past forty five years,

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<v Speaker 1>every every level of technological innovation has gotten smarter and

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<v Speaker 1>smarter and more and more and more productive. And I'm

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<v Speaker 1>excited about AI as far as again we're making these

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<v Speaker 1>leaps and bounds. And other other countries.

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<v Speaker 2>Are Richard mentioned worldwide? It was Heimen Lazaar. It was

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<v Speaker 2>like a thing, you know, it was like red Sox pitching.

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<v Speaker 2>There were two pictures. So and then you go on

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<v Speaker 2>to Edgeyard Denny. Does Nancy Lazzar believe in Yard Denny's

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<v Speaker 2>bond Vigilantes? Is this a market that's going to tell

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<v Speaker 2>the President what to do.

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<v Speaker 1>But I do believe in the bond market vigilante, a big, big, big,

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<v Speaker 1>big time. And I don't believe that the Fed's going

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<v Speaker 1>to do financial market repression. And yeah, I think I

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<v Speaker 1>think the bond market, bond deals have moved up some.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's quite frankly, not the right call. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't think inflation is a problem. I don't think the

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<v Speaker 1>FED has to raise rates. But at the margin, are

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<v Speaker 1>these higher yields a little bit of a of a

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<v Speaker 1>signal to to to Washington and to be careful, What.

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<v Speaker 3>Is your biggest concern about this economy these days?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, it has to be on the uncertainty about what's

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<v Speaker 1>going on in the Middle in in in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 1>That is my h to be sure, my single the.

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<v Speaker 3>Companies are holding back either like on capital spending or

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<v Speaker 3>M and A or I don't see it.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't either. I mean, we just got these manufacturing

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<v Speaker 1>surveys for the month of March from the regional FED districts,

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<v Speaker 1>and their CAPEX components are like moonshots. And I think

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<v Speaker 1>again it takes a step back that there's incentives to

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<v Speaker 1>do CAPEX and companies are doing it.

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<v Speaker 2>Are they Are you concerned about the way that the

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<v Speaker 2>mag seven, the data centers and all are doing the capex?

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<v Speaker 2>Or can they just do it like we learned in school,

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<v Speaker 2>take it out of a bond investment and instead of

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<v Speaker 2>using all cash, go to the bond market, get cash

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<v Speaker 2>and build this out.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, that's tough.

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<v Speaker 2>We've built the railroad truth.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's classic. And there is also incentives that these

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<v Speaker 1>companies can write off with the one big beautiful Act.

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<v Speaker 1>They can write off all of their investment software, R

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<v Speaker 1>and D. They can't write off the box of the

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<v Speaker 1>data center itself, but everything they put in it they can,

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<v Speaker 1>and then they can then they can borrow. But that's

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<v Speaker 1>you know, classic business li likele stuff.

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<v Speaker 2>Have you ever been pessimistic?

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<v Speaker 3>Oh?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I was too pessimistic in twenty three, I quite frankly, Am,

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<v Speaker 1>is some of the stuff that I've just talked about,

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<v Speaker 1>and so.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I just my answer was no. Nancy Blizzar, thank you,

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<v Speaker 2>thank you, thank you so much for coming in this morning.

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<v Speaker 2>I just can't say enough about her effort, folks. She's

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<v Speaker 2>a Piper Sandler