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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today

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Speaker 1: is our NFL Playoffs wild Card Tuesday NFL episode. I

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Speaker 1: am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: All right, we finished our season long contest with our

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Speaker 1: friends at BET three sixty five. The final week, Simon

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Speaker 1: and I were two and three in the contest. We

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Speaker 1: finished fifty and forty overall good four five hundred and

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Speaker 1: thirty first place, top four and a half percent out

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Speaker 1: of twelve thousand entries.

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Speaker 2: We do have a winner in the contest.

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Speaker 1: We're giving away forty thousand dollars to this person, Jesse Goldberg,

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Speaker 1: a true genius who finished a seventy one percent against

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Speaker 1: the spread. He is now forty thousand dollars richer. Matt

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Speaker 1: Mitchell has said this a thousand times, like he cannot

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Speaker 1: believe we had a contest.

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Speaker 2: We're in total for free.

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Speaker 1: We gave away one hundred and twenty thousand dollars in

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Speaker 1: cash prizes throughout the year. Congrats to Jesse Goldberg. We

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Speaker 1: paid out the top ten finishers, including our second and

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Speaker 1: third place finishers, who won ten thousand dollars and five

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars. And of course, because it's betting, and because

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Speaker 1: it's this podcast, the final outcomes involves a gross, disgusting,

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Speaker 1: horrendous bad beat. We will get to that at the

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Speaker 1: end of the show. Simon, You're not gonna believe this one.

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Speaker 1: On Sunday show, we previewed the wild card Games. A

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Speaker 1: lot of lines we liked have already moved in Sunday,

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Speaker 1: which is why you need to listen to the Sunday Show.

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Speaker 2: You want to get the best of the number.

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Speaker 1: On today's show, we will of course get to ours,

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Speaker 1: Simon says, and an exec decision. On Thursday, we will

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Speaker 1: finalize our big balls better the week, our Foxhole, our

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Speaker 1: money line. Let's bring in my co host, my bff,

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Speaker 1: my companion, my compadre, professional better and birthday boy, you

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Speaker 1: say your birthday. We're gonna have a good time, Simon

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Speaker 1: Hunter Heado, soymon, we love you so much.

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Speaker 2: Happy birthday, buddy.

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Speaker 3: Thank you, Chad, always always nice. Making it another year,

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Speaker 3: you know, another trip around the sun.

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Speaker 2: You did it.

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Speaker 1: Listen and by the way, it's not it's not easy

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Speaker 1: for you. I'm I'm impressed you made it.

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Speaker 3: Me too, especially after surviving four hour delay and it'll

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Speaker 3: have to get back to Jersey. So is this the

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Speaker 3: worst start to a birthday ever? But no, it's all

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Speaker 3: good now, made it back to Jersey, all ive and well.

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Speaker 1: We are onto the playoffs simon this us where we

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Speaker 1: make our money. As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is

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Speaker 1: presented by Bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 2: Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary.

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Speaker 1: Check out the Boost and see why it's never ordinary

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Speaker 1: at Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or

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Speaker 1: older and present in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,

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Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

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Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. As a reminder, catch every

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Speaker 1: episode of The Favorites Live on YouTube. For those enjoying

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Speaker 1: on YouTube right now, don't forget to give us a

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Speaker 1: like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. All right,

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Speaker 1: before we get to the wild Card Games, we do

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Speaker 1: have a little bit of housekeek being our Week eighteen

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Speaker 1: winners for the last week of the weekly contest. Hardest

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Speaker 1: week of the contest for the whole season, by the way,

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Speaker 1: thirty five entries just thirty five, one, five and zero

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Speaker 1: a tie for first place. Congrats to Terry Landers and

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Speaker 1: Dave Nyc enjoy the cash that was the last week

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Speaker 1: of our giveaway.

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Speaker 2: Our last Producer's Couple ward goes.

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Speaker 1: To Cade Jackson sixty six six. Congrats, Cad, you finished

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Speaker 1: dead fucking last and the last week of the eighteen

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Speaker 1: week contest going on to five, missing the tiebreaker by

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Speaker 1: a zillion yards. Cade, please email Matt Mitchell at podcast

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Speaker 1: at actionnetwork dot com to claim your non cash prize.

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Speaker 1: Don't forget this Sunday, It's coming up. Simon and I

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Speaker 1: Together again Live Shepherd and the Knucklehead Poe Boken, New Jersey.

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Speaker 1: We got a watch party going on for the games

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Speaker 1: beginning at four pm. Di'mond and I go live at

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Speaker 1: seven point thirty. Also an event Saturday with Kerner, Sean Kerner, Stuckey, Me,

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Speaker 1: Chris Raybond, Nick Giffen, the whole Gang four o'clock Saturday

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Speaker 1: the thirteenth. RSVP to these events, check out the links

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Speaker 1: in the episode description. All Right, Simon, I know Sunday

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Speaker 1: was a sweat because we needed the Bills to cover

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Speaker 1: to go two and three in the contest. I also

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Speaker 1: had the under in the game, but we also needed

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Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill to get thirty three yards to win the

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Speaker 1: receiving title. Fortunately he did it early in the game.

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Speaker 1: He did not make a sweat. He beat Ceedee Lamb

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Speaker 1: by fifty yards to win that title. Finished with seventeen

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Speaker 1: ninety nine.

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Speaker 2: We cashed. We cashed nine to one Tyreek Hill ticket.

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Speaker 2: What do you think of that.

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Speaker 3: Needed it needed bat Yeah, that game had a stupid

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Speaker 3: amount of money on it. And when I left from

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Speaker 3: flight to get back here, I literally got on the

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Speaker 3: plane I'm taking off when two got the ball back.

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Speaker 3: So I guess they had stopped Josh Allen on fourth

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Speaker 3: and one and my plane is going up into the air.

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Speaker 3: So two is getting the ball back, and I'm like,

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Speaker 3: oh my god, now I'm not gonna know for the

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Speaker 3: next five hours or six hours, whatever it was. It

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Speaker 3: was awful. But yeah, the public's been winning, we keep saying,

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Speaker 3: And yeah, that was ice on the cake. That was

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Speaker 3: one of my bigger bets earlier in the year where

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Speaker 3: the Bills win that division. I thought it was dead

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Speaker 3: for sure, and our guy and Mike Vrabel once again

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Speaker 3: saved our season coming back fourteen points down in the

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Speaker 3: fourth quarter Will Levis and gave us a chance at

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Speaker 3: this crazy run. So yeah, anyone that listened to us

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Speaker 3: three four weeks ago and bet the Bills to make

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Speaker 3: this kind of run, I think it was like plus

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Speaker 3: four hundred plus three fifty or something like that, but crazy,

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Speaker 3: like this Bill's run has been insane. They've been playing

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Speaker 3: playoff games for five weeks now, so and any team's

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Speaker 3: prepared for this playoff run, it's definite a Bills team.

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Speaker 2: More on the Bills to come later in the show.

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Speaker 1: We cashed Tybreek Hilled nine to one to win the

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Speaker 1: receiving yardage title. Also we got Jalen Carter seven to

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Speaker 1: one ish to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. Will Anderson.

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Speaker 1: He made a run at the end. He did not

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Speaker 1: get any more sacks on Sunday. We can be fingers

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Speaker 1: crossed that Carter, who had the shortest odds by a

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Speaker 1: mile to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, still wins

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Speaker 1: the award, even though the Eagles kind of limped to

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Speaker 1: the end of the season. Our records for the end

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Speaker 1: of the year, we just gave the record we had

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Speaker 1: for our weekly fhaves five. Our Foxhole went ten and eight,

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Speaker 1: Our Simon Says went eight, eight and two. Our exec

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Speaker 1: Decisions went ten and eight. Unfortunately, our big Balls bet

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Speaker 1: of the Week went seven and eleven. We had seven

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Speaker 1: straight losses from week eight to week fourteen. Look, this

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Speaker 1: was a year where favorites covered at an inordinate rate

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Speaker 1: unlike we've ever seen before. And our big balls Better

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Speaker 1: of the Week is usually going to be on a

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Speaker 1: pretty big underdog where we like the.

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Speaker 3: Spot so and now justs and Carolina Belts.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but by the way, and that and by the way,

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Speaker 1: like that week eight to week fourteen is about when

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Speaker 1: that run for favorites was at its peak. So you know,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't it's not surprising that that's that's that's when

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Speaker 1: it happened. You mentioned Mike Vrabel, Simon before we came

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Speaker 1: on the air today Mike Frabel was fired by the

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Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans. We got to pour one out from Mike

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Speaker 1: Frable MVP and that stands for Mike Rabel Podcast because

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Speaker 1: we have made some serious coin backing Mike Vrabel while

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Speaker 1: he has been with the Tennessee Titans.

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Speaker 2: I love the guy. I think back to.

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Speaker 1: They played the Patriots Tom Brady's last game Playoffs at Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: Brady threw a pick at the end of the game,

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Speaker 1: but the reason the Patriots were in such a dire

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Speaker 1: state at the end of that game is because Rabel

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Speaker 1: was pulling a Belichick playbook in terms of using the

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Speaker 1: rules to call timeouts, take penalties, call timeouts, run out

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Speaker 1: the clock.

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Speaker 2: Just brilliant strategy.

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Speaker 1: The way he managed the clock and what he did

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Speaker 1: with the roster that was never top flight in Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: I'd want this guy coach on my team in two seconds.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, gonna be one of those guys that you're anyone

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Speaker 3: that has a coach now they don't really believe in.

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Speaker 3: Or if you have a coach I just left, you

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Speaker 3: want Rabel. I mean, go look at the quarterbacks. He

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Speaker 3: just did what Chada talked about with it's like Tannehill

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Speaker 3: probably the best quarterback out of the bunch, Right, Is

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Speaker 3: that really saying that much? Because that's I mean, Tannel

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Speaker 3: is an l right guy, but no one thinks of

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Speaker 3: that guy has ever been a top ten guy in

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Speaker 3: this league. So you know the fact that he did

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Speaker 3: all that with Mariota types and you know are different

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Speaker 3: plethora of quarterbacks that filled in there, it's pretty incredible.

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Speaker 3: I mean, like we say all the time, like he's

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Speaker 3: just he's got that Tomlin effect. He's an incredible motivator.

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Speaker 3: Just this year, you know, I wish I wish they

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Speaker 3: had done what I thought they were gonna do before

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Speaker 3: the season, which is like really actually tank it right,

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Speaker 3: like Trey Tanneill, you know, get rid of Derrick Henry,

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Speaker 3: really let the young guys play, and you know, just

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Speaker 3: because of Rabel, they kind of believed in the team.

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Speaker 3: They're like, no, we can make another run. It wasn't there.

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Speaker 3: They're just they just weren't not a good team this season.

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Speaker 3: So they were good to us. We found their rhythm.

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Speaker 3: They were just good at home, bad on the road.

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Speaker 3: And that's exactly what they were this season. As a dog.

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Speaker 3: They were good to us at home.

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Speaker 1: Mike Rabel finishes his career with the Titans fifty one,

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Speaker 1: fifty and three against the spread. But crazy that that

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Speaker 1: included twenty seven and thirty straight up as an underdog.

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Speaker 1: That included thirty one, twenty four and two against the

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Speaker 1: spread as a dog, Which is why we love Mike

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Speaker 1: Rabel because he covered and won as a dog. His

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Speaker 1: twenty seven and thirty straight up mark as a dog

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Speaker 1: makes him the third most profitable of one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty coaches in the past twenty years, behind interestingly Tom

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Speaker 1: Cable formerly of the Raiders, short small sample size, and

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Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin, but he has been the most profitable coach

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Speaker 1: as a dog on the money line since he was

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Speaker 1: tired in twenty eighteen. Congrats Mike Vrabel, great run. You

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Speaker 1: have the respect of the betting community. We will follow

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Speaker 1: you wherever you go. Time to get to the wild

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Speaker 1: card round. My friend, Yeah, first came up Leve Leonard Houston.

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Speaker 1: We talked about this on Sunday night at Sunday Sunday night.

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Speaker 1: It opened at two. My first instinct, I said to

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Speaker 1: you was Houston. Your first instinct was Cleveland. It moved

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Speaker 1: down to one and a half is now moved up

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Speaker 1: from one and a half back to two to two

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Speaker 1: and a half. I have a to use your very

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Speaker 1: big word, big word for the birthday, boy, plethora.

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Speaker 2: I have a plethora.

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Speaker 3: Did I use that right?

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Speaker 2: You did?

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Speaker 1: You nailed it, shocking, Yeah, no, you nailed it smarter

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Speaker 1: with age, my friend, It's what happens you get older.

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Speaker 2: All you got left is your vocabulary.

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Speaker 3: It must have been on my You know, you turn

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Speaker 3: your page in your calendar. You get every day, you

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Speaker 3: got a new word, the word of the day.

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Speaker 2: That's your word for your birthday.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to give you some stats before you tell

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Speaker 1: me why you like Cleveland, because I know you do.

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Speaker 1: Texans were six and three at home this year.

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Speaker 2: Kay One of those losses was without the J.

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Speaker 1: Shroud, when Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper had the game

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Speaker 1: of their lives and Cooper had two hundred and sixty

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Speaker 1: five yards receiving.

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Speaker 2: Again, CJ.

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Speaker 1: Shroud didn't play CJ at home in eight games, twenty

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Speaker 1: five one hundred yards passing, nine yards per completion, seventeen touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: three hundred and ten yards per game, one oh eight

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Speaker 1: passer rating. The Browns defense on the road average rushing

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Speaker 1: yards gained is nearly two yards higher, gave up twice

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Speaker 1: as many touchdown passes nearly three yards more per pass

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Speaker 1: attempt in one fewer game on the road than at home,

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Speaker 1: So eight games versus nine games, they gave up one

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Speaker 1: hundred and twelve more points and allowed thirty points per game.

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Speaker 1: They went three and five on the road. I know

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Speaker 1: what's a new season. I know playoffs are different. I

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Speaker 1: know CJ.

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Speaker 2: Stroud is a rookie. As Jay Cutler might say, don't care.

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Speaker 3: You should, though you should. It is. It's a real thing.

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Speaker 3: It's just really tough as a rookie playing in the

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Speaker 3: playoffs because it's so different and people can tell you

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Speaker 3: how it's different, and now it's it's a different feeling.

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Speaker 3: You don't know until you play, and that's what the

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Speaker 3: players keep talking about. So I want to be on

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Speaker 3: Chad side, and lucky for me the playoffs, I can

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Speaker 3: be very patient. I can pick my spots because the

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Speaker 3: books will take money like this. This is the kind

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Speaker 3: of games they will take money on any of these games.

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Speaker 3: It's not like the regular season, where you know, they

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Speaker 3: take positions and they take spots and they don't really

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Speaker 3: take that much money with playoffs. They're happy to take

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Speaker 3: money based on any game. You know. Obviously, if you're

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Speaker 3: someone that's limited better and you're limited on betting online,

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Speaker 3: it's different. I tell you all the time. If you

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Speaker 3: got banned, you got to start getting your ass out

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Speaker 3: of bed, driving to the books, all right, put the

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Speaker 3: mask on, suck it up like the rest of us.

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Speaker 3: But bitching online about being banned, everyone gets banned.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 3: This is just a classic game that which I had

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Speaker 3: to talking about, like, if this gets the plus three,

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna have to take Houston. So it really is

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Speaker 3: a numbers game here where I want to take flack

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Speaker 3: with the veteran quarterback, with Jim Schwartz, the veteran defensive

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Speaker 3: coordinator against a rookie head coach and a rookie defense

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Speaker 3: and a rookie you know, quarterback. And it's all just

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Speaker 3: so young for Houston. They're a year or two early. Like,

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Speaker 3: it's incredible what they've done. Obviously they had some luck,

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Speaker 3: right that a lot of things break their way. The

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Speaker 3: Jaguars going one to five down the stretch helped. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: the the Joe Flacco story, Chad, like it's it's really

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Speaker 3: lined up for him in this Browns team to make

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Speaker 3: a crazy run, and I just I want to believe

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Speaker 3: in the Browns so bad. That's the hardest part here.

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Speaker 3: But Chad's stung with the line movement and it's it's

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Speaker 3: moving towards the Texans, and that's where the value is

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Speaker 3: gonna be. Like, if it gets the plus three, that's

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Speaker 3: that's the value play on Houston. But some Sunday, if

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Speaker 3: this is still in their three, Chad, I'm probably gonna

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Speaker 3: end up taking the Browns. It's just it's just the

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Speaker 3: Joe Flacco off everything about it. I feel I can't

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Speaker 3: believe I'm saying this. I feel confident as Joe Flacco

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Speaker 3: as a road favorite. If it's under three, do you

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Speaker 3: have this.

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Speaker 2: Rated?

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Speaker 3: No, I got it. I got a value right now

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Speaker 3: for Houston. I got this at two, So I should

293
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Speaker 3: have took it. I should have taken the one and

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Speaker 3: a half. But at the time, I was just like,

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Speaker 3: it feels too easy. I didn't trust that number at all.

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Speaker 3: And no, it's it's a good number. Like the books

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Speaker 3: are sharp, they know what they're doing. So the professionals

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Speaker 3: they came in, they moved the number two and a

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Speaker 3: half like, that's that's what it should be like if

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Speaker 3: they gets the three. I know pros, other pros are

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Speaker 3: just waiting to slam that number because you got the

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Speaker 3: one and a half and you can get the three. Now.

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Speaker 3: I know it sounds stupid, but that's actually nice. That's

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Speaker 3: a nice middle play. Like it's shocking amount of times

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Speaker 3: it lands on two or three. So that's what's gonna happen.

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Speaker 3: If they do move the three. That's a big deal

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Speaker 3: because the books know they're gonna have guys trying to

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Speaker 3: play both sides.

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Speaker 1: Uh, you mean you want to milman in because that's

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Speaker 1: what we call the middling right now? How much do

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Speaker 1: you change your power rankings for the playoffs or how

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Speaker 1: do you adjust them? How do you incorporate playoffs into

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Speaker 1: power rings?

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Speaker 3: A lot goes into it, but it's it's honestly more

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Speaker 3: about going with your gut and what other people are hearing.

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Speaker 3: Models don't really mean shit in such a small sample.

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Speaker 3: Like you think a model can predict that run that

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Speaker 3: Joe Flackle had with the Ravens. Do you think models

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Speaker 3: can predict Nick Foles having that run with the Eagles team?

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Speaker 3: It's like no, it's those things are tough where if

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Speaker 3: the numbers say, like that Eagles team we're just talking about,

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Speaker 3: if the numbers say that has an incredibly good D line,

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Speaker 3: their defense is better than people a giving credit to.

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Speaker 3: They actually are pretty good offensively. There's not that big

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Speaker 3: of a difference between Nick Foles and Wentz. Some people

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Speaker 3: can find crazy value that way and going these crazy runs.

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Speaker 3: But you know, for someone like me, last year was

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Speaker 3: out now like very last year was weird, right, we

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Speaker 3: talked about last year it was both one seeds made

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Speaker 3: to the super Bowl. I was all in on those

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Speaker 3: two one seeds. I talked about it the whole playoff run.

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Speaker 3: Bet them both the whole run. That's not normal. That's

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Speaker 3: usually not like that for me. I don't really like

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Speaker 3: taking that because we see all the time of football

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Speaker 3: it's a one game winner, take all random shit's gonna happen.

336
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Speaker 3: Teams of match up well, teams get hot. That's what

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Speaker 3: I'm banking on this year. I think we're due for

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Speaker 3: a crazy wild called runner. So like we're goetting, we're

339
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Speaker 3: gonna go through these games year. Chad's gonna start picking

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Speaker 3: up on how I view a lot of these games.

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Speaker 3: I do like a couple of these underdogs this week.

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Speaker 1: This is a luck rankings undergame. According to Nick Giffen.

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Speaker 1: In the playoffs the past five years, Luck total games

344
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Speaker 1: twenty nine and eleven against the total, so the total

345
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Speaker 1: on this has been forty four and a half. It

346
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Speaker 1: got bet down to forty four. Also, home dogs the

347
00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:51,680
Speaker 1: past twenty years in the playoffs fifteen to twelve and

348
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Speaker 1: two against the spread, but nine and two against the

349
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Speaker 1: spread in the wild card round, but home was less

350
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Speaker 1: than a field goal in any round nine to two

351
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Speaker 1: and one against the spread since two thousand. So everything

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Speaker 1: you're saying is right to me. I haven't bet that.

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Speaker 1: I haven't bet the Texans yet because I wanted to

354
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Speaker 1: follow up on the conversation because I was trying to rock,

355
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Speaker 1: like why you loved Cleveland? And then yesterday I was

356
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Speaker 1: doing my research and you know, recited all these the

357
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Speaker 1: litany of stats and was still trying to figure out

358
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Speaker 1: why does he like Cleveland? And like now I'm just

359
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Speaker 1: waiting for the number to get to three.

360
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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, that's that to me, feels like a move

361
00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:35,520
Speaker 3: and then if it does move down, she got Chatt

362
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Speaker 3: even more confidence. That means a professional finally came in

363
00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:40,760
Speaker 3: and at this Houston team where I think most pros

364
00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:42,679
Speaker 3: like me right Awter just waiting. The pros I know

365
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Speaker 3: came in on the Browns. They moved the number down

366
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Speaker 3: to one and a half, and they hit it. They

367
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Speaker 3: moved up and now they're just kind of waiting for

368
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Speaker 3: that Houston three.

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Speaker 1: Well, look the money and the tickets are all coming

370
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Speaker 1: in on Cleveland right now, so I would expect that

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Speaker 1: the number is going to get to three. Uh. And

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Speaker 1: these lines have been moving late on game day, probably

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Speaker 1: more than I've.

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Speaker 2: Ever seen in a season like that.

375
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Speaker 1: Last two hours before the game, we're seeing pretty decent

376
00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:14,520
Speaker 1: sized movements around key numbers. Miami, Kansas City. Reminder, Kansas

377
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Speaker 1: City is a three and a half point favorite. Fascinating games.

378
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Speaker 1: I started to develop an opinion in this game yesterday.

379
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Speaker 1: Reminder this game is streaming live only on Peacock, the

380
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Speaker 1: NBC streaming service.

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Speaker 3: That sucks.

382
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Speaker 1: Yeah, lined to open at three. By the way, it's

383
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Speaker 1: the way the world going forward, simon. It just is

384
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Speaker 1: got a.

385
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Speaker 3: Little change though, Like they got really lucky with most

386
00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:46,360
Speaker 3: most people my generation don't mind most millennials, like apparently

387
00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 3: forty two percent of millennials are all sports fans, which

388
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:52,560
Speaker 3: is the highest demographic for generations. The generation right behind me,

389
00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 3: they're out. They don't like this bs of Like, if

390
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:57,400
Speaker 3: I want to watch an NBA game, I need five

391
00:20:57,440 --> 00:20:59,920
Speaker 3: different streaming services to watch one NBA game. It's red.

392
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Speaker 3: So the NFL is getting to that point now where

393
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Speaker 3: there's too much stuff. So I think, while ten years

394
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:07,119
Speaker 3: of this bullshit and then I'll come back around to

395
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:09,520
Speaker 3: back the cable. It's just by the way.

396
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Speaker 2: Let me tell you something.

397
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Speaker 1: The generation right behind you, despite the fact of your

398
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:17,240
Speaker 1: advancing age, the generation behind you is fifteen years old.

399
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Speaker 2: Okay. I know.

400
00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:23,960
Speaker 1: I know because three I live with one of them.

401
00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, your kid, you're you work in sports, and you

402
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 3: you're a writer. You force sports down their throats. I'm

403
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,520
Speaker 3: sure your kids are into sports some way, but most

404
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:36,639
Speaker 3: normal guys out there that don't give a damn about sports,

405
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:37,680
Speaker 3: their kids don't care either.

406
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Speaker 1: You know, guy I was about to support you, don't

407
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 1: come after me. What I'm saying is, like the generation

408
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:46,320
Speaker 1: behind you, they don't know the difference between table and

409
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:51,920
Speaker 1: streaming and streaming only because they're not paying for shit.

410
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:53,960
Speaker 1: They're not paying attention to shit. All they know is

411
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:55,800
Speaker 1: they sit down in the couch, they turn in a remote.

412
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:57,680
Speaker 1: The game they want is right in front of them,

413
00:21:57,880 --> 00:21:58,520
Speaker 1: that's all they know.

414
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Speaker 3: And then they turn their phone on. They don't even

415
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:01,239
Speaker 3: watch them.

416
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Speaker 1: And then they turn their phone on and they're on

417
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:09,199
Speaker 1: their phone the entire fucking game. It's just astonishing, all right.

418
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:13,920
Speaker 1: This line opened at three. I'm moving on from my group.

419
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:17,560
Speaker 1: The old man get off the grass yelling. The line

420
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 1: opened at three, moved up to three and a half.

421
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:23,439
Speaker 1: I kind of have an opinion on this game, but

422
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Speaker 1: before I even give all my stats, I kind of

423
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Speaker 1: want to hear what you have to say.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you were supposed to bet the Chiefs when

425
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 3: it was three. That was definitely the move. And the

426
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 3: weather is the biggest reason. Like, yes, if this was

427
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 3: thirty five and Sonny, I would love and most starts playing.

428
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:43,879
Speaker 3: I would love Miami so much. This Chiefs team like

429
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:47,240
Speaker 3: way too much respect being given them with this number.

430
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:49,840
Speaker 3: Now it's up to four for the simple reason that

431
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:51,639
Speaker 3: the pros are hitting this because it's supposed to be

432
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 3: negative one degrees and so like to a Hawaiian who

433
00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 3: played in the South is now we were played in

434
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:05,040
Speaker 3: a game apparently below thirty degrees Miami their long history

435
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:07,879
Speaker 3: of this franchise have always struggled. It doesn't matter if

436
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 3: it was the seventies or the two thousands, They've always

437
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 3: struggled historically going from Miami to some cold place to

438
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 3: play outdoors. The numbers are real. The numbers back it up.

439
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,919
Speaker 3: So I'm pissed. I wanted to take Miami like this

440
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 3: was such a great spot another dog I loved. I mean,

441
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:24,480
Speaker 3: plus four. Now it's sickening, Like I want to take

442
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 3: that so bad, but I can't do it if it's

443
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:31,800
Speaker 3: gonna be zero degrees. It's like, like it's such bad

444
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:36,760
Speaker 3: luck for this this Miami team. It's just I would

445
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 3: be sick if I was a fan of that team.

446
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,679
Speaker 3: Like you guys had it. You had your own home playoff,

447
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:42,159
Speaker 3: you had the two seed, and now you've got to

448
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 3: go to Kansas City and zero degree weather against my homes.

449
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 3: It's just such a bad spot. But yeah, it sucks.

450
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:51,679
Speaker 3: This number keeps growing. I might eventually have to bet it,

451
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 3: but right now, what's my motivation to bet it? There

452
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 3: is none. But if you want the Chiefs, Chad just

453
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 3: told you it's three and a half right now, bet

454
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:01,120
Speaker 3: three six y five? You better go grab it because

455
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 3: it's going up to four and I know it's going

456
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 3: to keep going. Just every pro I talk tough, they're

457
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 3: just like it's two in the cold, like why are

458
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 3: you backing them? And I just keep arguing, it's that run,

459
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 3: the running style of Miami, that's what's been their success

460
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,640
Speaker 3: this year, right, Like that running style with Moster. If

461
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 3: he's gone, I can't back Miami here. I just I'll

462
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,360
Speaker 3: either sit it out or I'll end up taking the Chiefs. Maybe.

463
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 1: So a couple other things that are on my mind

464
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 1: for this game. One of them you mentioned. Look, this

465
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 1: team was a record setting offense throughout the year. At

466
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 1: one point during the season, let me see if I

467
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 1: can find those notes here. At one point during the season,

468
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 1: they were Buffalo was minus one forty to win the

469
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:52,680
Speaker 1: AFC East on October tewod Miami was plus one thirty eight.

470
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 1: On December first, Miami was minus four hundred.

471
00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 2: Buffalo was plus.

472
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 1: Fifteen hundred, and Miami still did not win the AFC East.

473
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 2: And that was a to.

474
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 1: Me, a gut punch of a loss. Mentally, Now you've

475
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 1: got to pick yourself up the mat, up off the mat.

476
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:16,639
Speaker 3: You got dominated, They dominated that game defensively, like you

477
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 3: had Josh Allen have a bad game, and they couldn't

478
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 3: do a single thing on offense.

479
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 1: They couldn't do anything on offense. And now the Dolphins defense,

480
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 1: they don't have Chubb, they don't have Jalen Phillips, Cameron

481
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,720
Speaker 1: Good another pass rusher lost during the Bills game.

482
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 3: Howard's banged up.

483
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:38,879
Speaker 1: Howard is banged up. They've got Melvin Ingram off the

484
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 1: street in December, shocking, Yes, less than a month with

485
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 1: the team lining up in coverage on rookie tight ends.

486
00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:50,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, it's.

487
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 1: Going to be windy, it's going to be negative temperature.

488
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:59,680
Speaker 1: I had to walk my dog in nineteen degrees this morning. Mentally,

489
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 1: I was there. I forgot the poop bags because I

490
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 1: had to put on so many fucking clothes I walked outside.

491
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:06,119
Speaker 1: I'm like Jesus Christ, I didn't even put them in

492
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 1: my pocket. So like, and I don't have to play

493
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:12,639
Speaker 1: football and I'm not from Miami. Like it's going to

494
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 1: be a miserable day. And they just lost a brutal

495
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:16,760
Speaker 1: game that they should have won.

496
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I just I don't want to do

497
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 3: I want to take I want to take Miami here,

498
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 3: but the play just feels like the Chiefs and the under,

499
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:28,480
Speaker 3: like you just laid it all out. These teams have

500
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 3: already faced each other. It's just it's bad.

501
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:37,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like we still owe with Simon says, we

502
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:41,680
Speaker 1: still owe an exec decision exec decision two games above

503
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 1: five hundred this season. Then we always the listeners the viewers.

504
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:52,879
Speaker 1: They need the exact decision because that's their money maker.

505
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got to give them one.

506
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:59,480
Speaker 3: With the juice. With the juice, they just made the money.

507
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 1: That's right, just barely. But I don't think Kansas City

508
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 1: is going to be my EXAC decision.

509
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,880
Speaker 3: Good play the under if you want.

510
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:12,919
Speaker 2: What's total in this game right now? Forty four? Yeah,

511
00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:15,640
Speaker 2: I'm not there on that. I mean, I'm gonna play

512
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:16,560
Speaker 2: the under in this game.

513
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 3: We already all missed the value play. I think it

514
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 3: was like forty seven and a half and now it's

515
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 3: down to forty four.

516
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, So that's kind of why I'm not looking to

517
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 1: play this game, because I'm worried about the value of

518
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:29,159
Speaker 1: going both ways. Yeah, but let's talk about Pittsburgh and

519
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:32,879
Speaker 1: Buffalo because this game. You know what I'm going to

520
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:35,879
Speaker 1: say right now, EXAC decision. Give me the Buffalo Bills.

521
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 3: The Bills make me wan.

522
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:43,880
Speaker 2: Throw your hands up and throw your hand back.

523
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 4: Come on now, the Bills.

524
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 2: I'm making it happen now.

525
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 3: God damn it, like Pittsburgh really, yeah, I'm a sucker though,

526
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 3: Like you know, I'm a sucker for these big Combers.

527
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 3: This year number moved three points because TJ. Watts out.

528
00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:00,440
Speaker 3: That's that's wild, that's crazy to think.

529
00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you know the bets and the money, TJ.

530
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:04,720
Speaker 2: Watts out.

531
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 1: But look, Pittsburgh one in ten straight up without Watts since.

532
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:09,880
Speaker 3: He joined the team, I know.

533
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:13,919
Speaker 1: One in six in the last seven games thirty first

534
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:19,399
Speaker 1: in Dvoa without him eighteen to nine straight up and

535
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:23,359
Speaker 1: against the spread with TJ. Watt one in six two

536
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:27,159
Speaker 1: and four against the spread without him, Steelers seventy forty

537
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 1: six straight up sixty two to fifty four against the

538
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:33,440
Speaker 1: spread with him since twenty seventeen, one in ten, four

539
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 1: six and one, you know, eleven games without him, Like.

540
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 2: It's just the side.

541
00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just I can't. I can't get there because

542
00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 3: the Josh Allen effect. Man, the dude can't stop turning

543
00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 3: the ball over. Like he just cannot stop turning the

544
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 3: ball over. And ten points for a guy that can't

545
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 3: be consistent, is you know, scary? Like, that's a lot

546
00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 3: of points for a dude that keeps these games tight

547
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 3: because you can't stop turning the ball over.

548
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 2: It's betting, is scary? Wise man? A wise man once

549
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 2: said that to me. A wise man who's now older

550
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 2: once said that to me.

551
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 3: I'm just shocked you're not scared by all this movement,

552
00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 3: man's a lot of that's a lot to move it.

553
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 3: It's moved from seven all way up to ten.

554
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 2: It has I agree.

555
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 1: And so here's two more things that I have the

556
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 1: benefit of knowing already, which you might not know yet.

557
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 1: Number One, it's the big luck game according to the

558
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 1: luck rankings, and the luck rankings are devised against the

559
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 1: closing line. So I feel like I'm still getting the

560
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 1: number I want at ten. Also from Stuckey, who sent

561
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 1: this in, QB is making their first playoff start versus

562
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 1: a QB who has playoff experience, and this plays to

563
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 1: your Joe Flacco CJ. Stroud seventeen thirty five and one

564
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 1: against the spread, seventeen thirty six straight up since two

565
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 1: thousand and two, So that applies to CJ. Shroud and

566
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 1: Flacco two and Mahomes, Mason Rudolph and Josh Allen and

567
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 1: Jordan lo versus Dak Prescott.

568
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, damn that. I mean every time you see the

569
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 3: stat it's it is such a killer where you want

570
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:23,160
Speaker 3: to take these these young guys, exciting new quarterbacks, and

571
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 3: it's just like you gotta go with grizzly Vet like

572
00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 3: the guys who've been there. You're right, like I do

573
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 3: want to, I do want to Black Buffalo. Just I'm

574
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 3: just worried the line moved too much overreaction to the

575
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:36,960
Speaker 3: Watt news. Why what is obviously incredible, But they have

576
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 3: a couple of guys in that D line that get pressure, right.

577
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 3: I feel like every week there's just multiple guys getting pressure.

578
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:44,000
Speaker 3: And that could be because they have two or three

579
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 3: guys all catered to TJ. Watt. But you said it,

580
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 3: we know their record without them again, if you just

581
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:52,760
Speaker 3: playing this game, I promise you I would have been

582
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 3: over Pittsburgh's money line. No chance, No chance I'll be

583
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 3: on Pittsburgh's money line anyway. Like they just they don't

584
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 3: win without TJ. He's the X factor. The Bills are

585
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 3: due for a blall whin they've been. They've not played well,

586
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 3: and it feels like four weeks like every game there

587
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 3: they keep teams in it, all these close games just

588
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 3: because of the turnovers. Uh. I know he's not having

589
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:16,719
Speaker 3: an incredible season. Gabe Davis got a little banged up

590
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 3: last week. Diggs has not looked right in about six weeks,

591
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 3: ever since the new OC has taken over, which the

592
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 3: run game is excelled, but that's what suffered the playoff.

593
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 3: Digs has suffered these last couple of weeks. So a

594
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 3: lot of questions for me with the bills. Too many

595
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 3: questions for me to take it at ten. It's Chad's

596
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 3: exact decision, so I'll back my guy. But I am

597
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 3: scaring feels now.

598
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 2: I love it. I freaking love it. All right, Well,

599
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 2: that's good, that's good.

600
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 3: We're going with to be over too. People are looking

601
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:55,720
Speaker 3: if people want to party, I'm partying on the over.

602
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 3: I just a lot of turnovers, a lot of short fields. Rudolph.

603
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 3: I think he's gonna be turned over just way too low.

604
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 3: I know they're supposed to be weather. It's Tuesday. Like

605
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 3: predicting the weather for Sunday in Buffalo. It's impossible. No

606
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 3: one knows what the lake, how the Lake's going to

607
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:15,479
Speaker 3: affect the weather by the time Sunday rolls around. So

608
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 3: I'll take that number now to the fact that it's

609
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 3: thirty six and a half. Thirty seven is such a

610
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 3: key number. We see so many games finish twenty seventeen,

611
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:25,480
Speaker 3: So I'll take the over right now, thirty six and

612
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 3: a half.

613
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 1: I like that too, Simon. We've ventured a brand new year.

614
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 1: But to keep delivering the best cut podcast we can,

615
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 1: I need to ensure you're keeping up on the latest news.

616
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 1: So I'm going to ask you just one more time

617
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 1: if you can name the fastest growing ticketing app in

618
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 1: the United States.

619
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 3: Game Time.

620
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 1: That's right, it's a sponsored game Time. I love game

621
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,960
Speaker 1: Time for two reasons. One they sponsored this show. Number Two,

622
00:32:56,000 --> 00:32:59,080
Speaker 1: I actually use game Time to buy tickets. They've got

623
00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:03,160
Speaker 1: amazing last minute deals on all sorts of tickets, including

624
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 1: pro and college football games. Speaking of which, I'm actually

625
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 1: going to open game Time right now from my house

626
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 1: here in Connecticut. Look what I can do. I can

627
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 1: get in to go see the New York Knickerbockers at

628
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 1: the Mecca Madison Square Garden for less than one hundred

629
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 1: dollars against the Portland Trailblazers. No matter where you live,

630
00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 1: download the game time app Get out have some fun

631
00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 1: this week. Go sweat your bets live and in person,

632
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 1: and you can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off

633
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 1: your first purchase.

634
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 2: Terms apply again.

635
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:33,480
Speaker 1: Just download the app and enter code favorites for twenty

636
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 1: dollars off. Last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. All right,

637
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 1: another one of those games. A veteran quarterback in Dak

638
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 1: Prescott versus a rookie corps a first time in the

639
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 1: playoff quarterback in Jordan Love Sunday night. I had to

640
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:53,840
Speaker 1: go back and listen to the podcast to make sure

641
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:57,600
Speaker 1: I got your comments correct. We talked about this game.

642
00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 1: The line immediately moved from seven to seven and a half.

643
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:07,280
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter's quote, I am shocked it moved this way.

644
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 1: We didn't want to bet it yet because we wanted

645
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:11,960
Speaker 1: to get more intel. And why the line move in

646
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:14,239
Speaker 1: this direction since we both thought the Packers were the

647
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 1: right side. Yeah at seven.

648
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 2: Have you heard anything in the past forty eight hours?

649
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:21,840
Speaker 3: I know the pros are split. I know plenty of pros.

650
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:26,360
Speaker 3: I like Dallas which I can't believe. I'm just I

651
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,879
Speaker 3: don't buy it. Man, This Dallas team, I know they

652
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:31,799
Speaker 3: blew up Brady last year in the playoffs. That was

653
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 3: pretty incredible what they did the Bucks team, And I

654
00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:36,360
Speaker 3: was one of those idiots that was on the Bucks

655
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 3: who lost by whatever it was, thirty points to Dak

656
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 3: But Man, seven and a half is just a lot

657
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 3: of points for dallast and that we've seen time and

658
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 3: time again they can the ball can be moved on them.

659
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:51,800
Speaker 3: And green Bay last week they didn't play the perfect

660
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 3: game right, Like they didn't play that amazing Jordan Love

661
00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 3: wasn't out of the sport. I think they scored seventeen points.

662
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:01,760
Speaker 3: But you saw with the floor when things aren't working,

663
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,200
Speaker 3: he can still scheme up guys open, like he can

664
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:06,400
Speaker 3: still get the right guys in the right position to

665
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:11,040
Speaker 3: get first downs consistently. So the argument against our green

666
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:13,920
Speaker 3: Bay pick is their defense is so bad that Dallas

667
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 3: is going to have an absolute field day against them

668
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 3: with this offense. But I'm just not buying it. Like

669
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:23,480
Speaker 3: the green Bay knows what they have to do right,

670
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 3: They're gonna double CD and that's kind of the force

671
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 3: there is. You take away the passing game. You want

672
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 3: to make them run with poler. I mean, they just

673
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:33,560
Speaker 3: they haven't had a really strong running game this season.

674
00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:35,800
Speaker 3: But the issue is Green Bay has one of the

675
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,200
Speaker 3: worst run defenses in football. So it's like, I don't

676
00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:40,880
Speaker 3: know what they can do defensively to get stops against Dallas.

677
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 3: It really would have to be Dak beating himself for

678
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 3: them to kind of lose this game. But you know,

679
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 3: I said it, I'm going to force some dogs in.

680
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:50,400
Speaker 3: I'm gonna end up forcing Green Bay in. It's just

681
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:52,600
Speaker 3: seven and a half. I got to be a buyer

682
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:54,279
Speaker 3: at that number, and the books might be sucking me

683
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:56,719
Speaker 3: in at that number. I remember last year with the

684
00:35:56,760 --> 00:36:01,719
Speaker 3: exact same scenario of Daniel Jones coming off a big

685
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 3: win against the Vikings going to Philadelphia, and I said

686
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:06,359
Speaker 3: on the show, if that number had moved to seven,

687
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 3: it was gonna be my biggest bet of the playoffs

688
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:10,400
Speaker 3: on the Eagles. It was just like the hype was

689
00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 3: way too high on that Giants team. I don't think

690
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 3: we're getting the same cup of hype here with Green Bay.

691
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 3: I don't. I don't think they end up as a

692
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 3: public dog. I do think the public between the teasers,

693
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:23,719
Speaker 3: the money line parlays, everything will keep coming in on

694
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:26,800
Speaker 3: this Dallas team. So I'm not as worried as I

695
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 3: would have been if they were such a public dog.

696
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:31,560
Speaker 3: You don't really back public dogs usually in the playoffs.

697
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 3: We have one coming up here. But yeah, seven and

698
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:37,720
Speaker 3: a half. I like Green Bay at this number of people,

699
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:41,800
Speaker 3: It's like, if this number dips below seven, I felt

700
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:43,719
Speaker 3: way better about this Green Bay bet. So I am

701
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 3: a little scared that the pros have coming so heavy

702
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 3: on this Cowboys team and bumped this up and now

703
00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:49,320
Speaker 3: it's holding like it's been holding at seven and a

704
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:52,399
Speaker 3: half now for two days. So the books have clearly

705
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:54,360
Speaker 3: taken up position now with this Dallas team.

706
00:36:54,560 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, it hasn't moved.

707
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 1: We thought like it might move a little bit at

708
00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:04,399
Speaker 1: some point the last forty eight hours. It hasn't. Dak

709
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:10,719
Speaker 1: Prescott and Jordan Love top two touchdown passers, both had

710
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:14,879
Speaker 1: more than four thousand yards. Both threw for more than

711
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:19,040
Speaker 1: seven yards per attempt. I think if you look at this,

712
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 1: the Packers I think have the better coach, but they

713
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:26,239
Speaker 1: have the first year quarterback on the road in his

714
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:31,160
Speaker 1: first playoff game. Cowboys do have the better defense. I

715
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:34,440
Speaker 1: would also say that Jordan Love under pressure.

716
00:37:35,560 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 2: Is exquisite.

717
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 1: Like the Minnesota Vikings, they tried to blitz them, it

718
00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 1: didn't work. The Chicago Bears, they tried to flush them

719
00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:46,880
Speaker 1: out of the pocket. It didn't work. We talked about

720
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:52,200
Speaker 1: this on Sunday. Jordan Love's ability to roll right or

721
00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:57,279
Speaker 1: roll back and throw off balance and be accurate and

722
00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:02,520
Speaker 1: find open receivers, it's all ready upper echelon in terms

723
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 1: of quarterbacks in the NFL. He's just amazing at it.

724
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:09,520
Speaker 1: And the fact that the Packers got rid of Aaron

725
00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 1: Rodgers and is now doing a better job of ripping

726
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 1: ESPN executives and spreading conspiracy theories and lies than he

727
00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:23,240
Speaker 1: is at doing anything in the football field because of injuries,

728
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:26,320
Speaker 1: and Jordan Love in his first year as a starter,

729
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:34,279
Speaker 1: is the second highest touchdown passer in the NFL. As

730
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 1: a Bears fan, it makes me sick and I cannot

731
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:43,280
Speaker 1: believe the Packers have another quarterback issues solved for thirty

732
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 1: straight years.

733
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I said it, and people kept giving the

734
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:51,600
Speaker 3: Green Bay shit for drafting. I still think it's one

735
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:53,759
Speaker 3: of the best better draft picks we've seen last five

736
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:57,440
Speaker 3: or securities because they got two MVPs out of Rodgers

737
00:38:58,040 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 3: able to trade him for a couple of first round

738
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 3: picks or whatever it was, and then they got Jordan

739
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 3: Love who stepped in now and it's insane that draft

740
00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:10,080
Speaker 3: class that Herbert Burrow, Tua Hurtz, now Jordan Love draft class.

741
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:12,759
Speaker 3: We've never seen anything like it in football where it's

742
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:17,359
Speaker 3: like multiple guys all Pro Bowlers, you know, anyone any

743
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 3: of those guys people basically take for their team, right,

744
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:24,319
Speaker 3: Like there's consistently maybe twelve to fifteen guys that you

745
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:26,560
Speaker 3: feel good about the fact that five of them are

746
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:30,359
Speaker 3: from one draft class. We've never seen it. So I

747
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:32,520
Speaker 3: had a lot of doubts with Jordan Love. I just

748
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:35,440
Speaker 3: remember that Chiefs game. Obviously it's a bad spot, right

749
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:39,160
Speaker 3: his first start playing against the Chiefs and Mahomes, and

750
00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:41,719
Speaker 3: he just could not do a single thing offensively, Like

751
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:45,400
Speaker 3: he just looked totally lost. Whatever he did this past offseason,

752
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 3: like gotta taste the league. He knew it was gonna

753
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 3: be his team. And you know the fact you just

754
00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:54,120
Speaker 3: said he's top three wherever it is and passing touchdowns

755
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:55,240
Speaker 3: in his first year as a starter.

756
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 2: Two he's just behind Dak.

757
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:04,320
Speaker 3: Like that is mind so yeah, just don't overreact that

758
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 3: someone that almost had a Wentz MVP keep it even

759
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:11,160
Speaker 3: killed green Bay. But you gotta be feeling pretty damn

760
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:12,319
Speaker 3: good if you're a Green Bay fan.

761
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:16,920
Speaker 1: A couple more stats, Dak Prescott at home is a

762
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 1: favorite of more than a touchdown fourteen to seven and

763
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 1: one against the spread.

764
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 3: That's pretty good.

765
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:29,160
Speaker 2: Yeah good, pretty deep, pretty deep, a lot of that's.

766
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 3: A lot of Washington and Giants.

767
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:33,359
Speaker 2: Next thing, No, you're you're totally right, by the way.

768
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:37,959
Speaker 1: Jordan Love first half of the season versit the second

769
00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:38,720
Speaker 1: half of the season.

770
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:41,440
Speaker 2: First half weeks.

771
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:45,720
Speaker 1: One through ten, sixteenth in EPA per play, twenty fifth

772
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:50,040
Speaker 1: in success rate, thirty eighth in completion percentage, week eleven

773
00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 1: on second in EPA per play fourth and success rate

774
00:40:54,280 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 1: sixth and completion percentage. So look, the Packers right now,

775
00:40:57,120 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 1: they're the fifth youngest playoff team since the merger and

776
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 1: nineteen seventy fifty four years. But Jordan Loves ascend it

777
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 1: in the second half of the year. A combination of

778
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:11,680
Speaker 1: him getting smarter, Matt Lafleur getting smarter, those receivers getting better.

779
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:13,359
Speaker 2: That's a team to reckon with.

780
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:17,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, that's incredible. He had that kind of

781
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 3: turnaround second half, because most guys does not work that way.

782
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:23,200
Speaker 3: Usually there's a big drop off. I mean a guy

783
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 3: we talked on start of the show, Jalen Carter. He

784
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:28,200
Speaker 3: fell off that rookie Cliff. It's just really hard to

785
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:31,759
Speaker 3: play for eighteen weeks straight. And the fact that he

786
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 3: had that kind of turned around midway through the season,

787
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:36,160
Speaker 3: it's just a testament to that coaching staff and Jordan

788
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 3: Love just an incredible combination.

789
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:42,360
Speaker 2: La Rams at the Detroit Lions. Great game, great narrative.

790
00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:44,480
Speaker 2: The Lions are three and a half point favorites. It

791
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:45,279
Speaker 2: opened at four.

792
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:48,399
Speaker 1: We talked about it on Sunday as it was at four,

793
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:50,160
Speaker 1: it was moving to three and a half. We all

794
00:41:50,200 --> 00:41:52,359
Speaker 1: slammed it at three and a half. It's kind of

795
00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:56,239
Speaker 1: just settled there. A couple of questions, how much does

796
00:41:56,239 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 1: Sam Laporta being out matter? How much this Rams offense

797
00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:04,880
Speaker 1: light up a Lion's defense that is graded fourth worst

798
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:08,279
Speaker 1: against pass coverage by Pro Football Focus. Rams have been

799
00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:11,240
Speaker 1: one of the best teams in the league and passes

800
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:16,959
Speaker 1: completed twenty yards or more downfield. Sean McVay as an

801
00:42:17,080 --> 00:42:22,160
Speaker 1: underdog twenty one sixteen and two against the spread, and

802
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 1: we like the Rams.

803
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:25,680
Speaker 3: Here Simon says take the Rams, place.

804
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 2: Diamond says La Rams plus three and a half side signs.

805
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:37,480
Speaker 3: When Simon says do it, we do it. Told me

806
00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:39,719
Speaker 3: I do bet differently in the playoffs, and this is

807
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:43,040
Speaker 3: a big, big situational how I bet differently where I'm

808
00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:45,520
Speaker 3: not as terrified to take certain public dogs. And this

809
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:47,400
Speaker 3: will be a spot with that where it's just like

810
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:49,719
Speaker 3: I think a lot of a lot of pros who

811
00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 3: do like the lines, I don't really trust their reasoning

812
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 3: behind it, where it's like it's just them kind of

813
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:58,480
Speaker 3: bad mouthing this Rams team and their defense, where I

814
00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:00,040
Speaker 3: don't know if I go through it. I feel like

815
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 3: the Rams, even though they had no first round picks

816
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 3: for freaking ten years and no second round picks, and

817
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:09,320
Speaker 3: all these guys they drafted these fourth and fifth rounds

818
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 3: have worked out like the They have a couple of

819
00:43:12,200 --> 00:43:14,319
Speaker 3: guys they've drafted on the defensive line who no one's

820
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:16,120
Speaker 3: going to know their names. I don't even know their names,

821
00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:19,320
Speaker 3: and they've really helped Aaron Donald like they've If you

822
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:21,680
Speaker 3: didn't know Aaron Donald had another amazing season, but I

823
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:24,000
Speaker 3: know he's not been mentioned just because he didn't have

824
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 3: the usual season that he does where it's like, you know,

825
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:30,799
Speaker 3: fifty pressures and fifteen sacks, like you know, TJ. Watt,

826
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 3: Miles Garrett, those guys just have such credible seasons that

827
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:35,680
Speaker 3: they kind of left Donald for, you know, out of

828
00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 3: the conversation of winning the defensive MVP. But he's played

829
00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:42,160
Speaker 3: incredible this season, Like Chatterrey talked about it, like these

830
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:45,319
Speaker 3: these receivers, they have Cooper, cub and Puka and then

831
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:48,440
Speaker 3: Williams in the backfield, Like it's all there for this

832
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:51,760
Speaker 3: Rams team, and they're one of my favorite dark horses

833
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:54,239
Speaker 3: for making a Super Bowl run at this NFC, Like

834
00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 3: there's no other team. I really feel like that can

835
00:43:56,719 --> 00:43:58,520
Speaker 3: be the forty nine ers right now in the NFC,

836
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:01,239
Speaker 3: then this team, the Rams. It's the honest truth, Like,

837
00:44:01,560 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 3: have zero faith in the Egles, have zero faith in Dallas.

838
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 3: Like all these guys have to go to play against

839
00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:11,320
Speaker 3: the fren Arras at you know, a stadium that's just rocking.

840
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:14,359
Speaker 3: It's hard to back all these guys who aren't gonna

841
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:16,400
Speaker 3: be these veteran quarterbacks where it's like Stafford has it

842
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:18,960
Speaker 3: all checked off. He's he's used to playing against the

843
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:20,879
Speaker 3: forty nine ers. He knows their system, all this stuff,

844
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:24,160
Speaker 3: but it all starts here and arguably the most emotional

845
00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 3: game of the entire weekend. Right, Like, he put out

846
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 3: a ten minute video just talking about what Detroit means

847
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:31,720
Speaker 3: them and how it made him from like a boy

848
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 3: from college from Georgia and who the man he is now.

849
00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:37,880
Speaker 3: And it's like a really heartful message. And how is

850
00:44:37,920 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 3: that not gonna be wearing him? That's definitely gonna be

851
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:42,840
Speaker 3: in Stafford's head, But that's that's canceled out by golf,

852
00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:45,880
Speaker 3: Like where we talked about golf, where it's like that's

853
00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:47,960
Speaker 3: that's another side where he's gonna have to control his

854
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:51,120
Speaker 3: rage and him seeing red because this is the definition

855
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:53,799
Speaker 3: of a red of revenge spot right, we talked about it.

856
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 3: It's like the Rams literally told the man, we're gonna go.

857
00:44:57,800 --> 00:44:59,200
Speaker 3: We're gonna get someone that can actually get us to

858
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:01,480
Speaker 3: the promise, and we're gonna go to replace you with Stafford,

859
00:45:01,520 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 3: a guy we believe in that get us there. We

860
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:05,319
Speaker 3: don't believe in you, even though you just got us

861
00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:08,520
Speaker 3: to a super Bowl two years before. We're moving on.

862
00:45:09,320 --> 00:45:11,600
Speaker 3: He talked about it he'd kind of given up on himself.

863
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 3: He had lost faith where it's like he had a

864
00:45:13,160 --> 00:45:15,759
Speaker 3: ton of self doubt and Campbell and you know, Ben

865
00:45:15,840 --> 00:45:18,200
Speaker 3: Johnson built it back these last three four years. And

866
00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:20,880
Speaker 3: both teams won. Like we said all the time, Detroit

867
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:23,240
Speaker 3: won the trade, the Rams won the trade. They both

868
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:26,800
Speaker 3: It's the rare both teams won, and it's only fitting

869
00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 3: they're playing in this first round. But I don't get

870
00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:31,400
Speaker 3: the number. I don't really get what the pros are

871
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:33,200
Speaker 3: saying here when they're like this Detroit team is so

872
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 3: clearly better. I just don't see it that way. Now

873
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:39,160
Speaker 3: you're factoring Laporte is out, that's such a huge deal.

874
00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 3: It is such a big deal. Who the number one

875
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:44,200
Speaker 3: tight end in football. It's crazy to say, but he is,

876
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:46,720
Speaker 3: by the numbers, the number one tight end of football.

877
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:50,000
Speaker 3: So much stuff they designed around him. It's a big deal.

878
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 3: So me and Chad joked about before coming on here

879
00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:56,799
Speaker 3: that you know laport is out, we're gonna like them.

880
00:45:56,840 --> 00:45:58,920
Speaker 3: And then you mix in the fact that Nick Mullens

881
00:45:59,280 --> 00:46:01,160
Speaker 3: almost put his tea even a spot to win against

882
00:46:01,160 --> 00:46:03,840
Speaker 3: the same Detroit team last week. They just don't have

883
00:46:03,840 --> 00:46:07,480
Speaker 3: the guys on defense to get stops. So Stafford back

884
00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:11,040
Speaker 3: against the wall. I love this spot, like plus three

885
00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 3: and a half taking this taking the money line. It's

886
00:46:13,520 --> 00:46:14,879
Speaker 3: the same thing when they had the Super Bowl run.

887
00:46:14,920 --> 00:46:17,480
Speaker 3: People forget the public were actually on the Rams and

888
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:20,080
Speaker 3: taking them a plus three and a half against the Bucks,

889
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 3: and they won that game out right. I mean most

890
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:24,759
Speaker 3: people will remember they bet it. Brady was down, like

891
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:27,279
Speaker 3: twenty eight points came all the way back Stafford had

892
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:29,160
Speaker 3: with him was in san throws. Ever to Cooper Cup

893
00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 3: put them in the field to kick a field with

894
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:33,520
Speaker 3: a win. It's like they've been this is the spot before.

895
00:46:33,760 --> 00:46:38,040
Speaker 3: So incredible story for Detroit. Just I feel like it's

896
00:46:38,040 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 3: a terrible matchup of them. Like if they would have

897
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:42,880
Speaker 3: called the Eagles, that's the dream scenario where it's like

898
00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 3: they I think they would have beat the Eagles or whoever.

899
00:46:45,239 --> 00:46:47,439
Speaker 3: But the Rams, I just I think they're a better

900
00:46:47,440 --> 00:46:50,279
Speaker 3: team right now. I'm gonna back this team. So it's

901
00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:52,040
Speaker 3: it's the more public player of the week for me. But

902
00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 3: I love the Rams here.

903
00:46:53,920 --> 00:47:01,120
Speaker 1: Sam Reporter, you mentioned tight end he had ten touchdowns

904
00:47:01,680 --> 00:47:07,240
Speaker 1: in his rookie year. Sam Laporta, Rob Gronkrawski, Mike Ditka,

905
00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:11,280
Speaker 1: eighty two receptions is the most ever for a rookie

906
00:47:11,280 --> 00:47:12,480
Speaker 1: tight end in NFL history.

907
00:47:12,480 --> 00:47:14,160
Speaker 2: Bad news record set by.

908
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:19,080
Speaker 1: Keith Jackson, former Philadelphia Eagle, not ABC broadcaster, but.

909
00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:21,719
Speaker 2: Most important for what you were saying.

910
00:47:21,520 --> 00:47:25,720
Speaker 1: About, how he impacts the Lions offense second and receiving

911
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:28,920
Speaker 1: first downs for Detroit this year, second behind only a

912
00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 1: mon Ross Saint Brown. So there's an immediate safety valve

913
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:37,560
Speaker 1: component to this where Jared Goff will not have a

914
00:47:37,600 --> 00:47:41,520
Speaker 1: guy who has become so important to how he executes

915
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:46,759
Speaker 1: the offense. A couple other stats while let's see home

916
00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 1: teams who missed the playoffs the year prior Lions thirty

917
00:47:50,719 --> 00:47:52,480
Speaker 1: forty nine against the spread in the playoffs over the

918
00:47:52,480 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 1: past twenty years, when those teams are favorites nineteen and

919
00:47:58,000 --> 00:47:59,280
Speaker 1: forty thirty two percent.

920
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:02,640
Speaker 2: So we like both of those trends.

921
00:48:02,800 --> 00:48:06,319
Speaker 1: By the way, the first trend includes Houston, so we

922
00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:08,640
Speaker 1: don't like it for Houston if we're going to back Houston,

923
00:48:08,880 --> 00:48:11,440
Speaker 1: but we like it for the Rams. Last game on

924
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:15,360
Speaker 1: the board, Philadelphia at Tampa Bay, Tampa based two and

925
00:48:15,400 --> 00:48:17,160
Speaker 1: a half. This has moved in the direction of the Bucks.

926
00:48:17,680 --> 00:48:20,320
Speaker 1: Baker's banged up Jalen Hurts is banged up. The Eagles

927
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:22,840
Speaker 1: are in a free fall. The Bucks actually did what

928
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:27,920
Speaker 1: good teams do. They beat bad teams in trap games

929
00:48:28,000 --> 00:48:30,200
Speaker 1: on the road when it matters most. The Jacks couldn't

930
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:33,279
Speaker 1: do it. The Eagles kind of couldn't do it. I

931
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:35,560
Speaker 1: don't really want to bet this game, I'll be honest,

932
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:37,880
Speaker 1: but I feel like we kind of have to bet

933
00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:42,440
Speaker 1: the Bucks. Reminder home dogs of less than a field

934
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 1: goal in the playoffs since two thousand and nine to

935
00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:47,439
Speaker 1: two and one in the Wildcar round. Betting the dog

936
00:48:47,480 --> 00:48:49,960
Speaker 1: doesn't really matter. It's nine to nine and two. But

937
00:48:50,080 --> 00:48:53,040
Speaker 1: this Eagles team, they could win the game. But I

938
00:48:53,040 --> 00:48:54,719
Speaker 1: feel like Baker's Scott Moxie.

939
00:48:55,000 --> 00:48:57,480
Speaker 3: He does. But like the guy I talked to who's

940
00:48:57,480 --> 00:48:59,359
Speaker 3: got he's got the good news and the bad news

941
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 3: with this Bucks. He always knows what's going on with them.

942
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 3: He says, it's all bad right now for Baker. Baker's

943
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:07,720
Speaker 3: apparently he's got a bad ankle, He's got a bad shoulders.

944
00:49:08,000 --> 00:49:13,240
Speaker 3: That's that's that's important. Hurts didn't break his finger. Apparently

945
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:16,279
Speaker 3: he just dislocated or sprained it. I don't know if

946
00:49:16,280 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 3: you've heard anything. I just from what I hear he hasn't.

947
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:23,400
Speaker 3: He did not break it. But Chad's right, Like everything

948
00:49:23,440 --> 00:49:26,839
Speaker 3: about this makes me want to take Tampa. But every

949
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 3: pro I talked to has just been slamming this Eagles team.

950
00:49:29,160 --> 00:49:30,920
Speaker 3: This this number opening one and a half. Now it's

951
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:34,480
Speaker 3: up to three. I'm gonna grab the three with the Eagles.

952
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 3: It's just if Baker's benned up, Eagles are in a

953
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:40,400
Speaker 3: spot to get right against his Bucks team. It feels

954
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 3: the same scenario last year with Dallas against this Bucks team.

955
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:45,560
Speaker 3: It's like, we know that the Bucks aren't that good, right,

956
00:49:45,719 --> 00:49:47,479
Speaker 3: Like they had a lot of a lot of lucky wins,

957
00:49:47,480 --> 00:49:49,880
Speaker 3: a lot of crazy stuff happened where it really was

958
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:52,239
Speaker 3: the Baker effect, Like Baker had these incredible last minute

959
00:49:52,280 --> 00:49:54,800
Speaker 3: drives him and Mike Evans, you know, shout out to

960
00:49:54,800 --> 00:49:56,759
Speaker 3: our guy, Brandon Anderson gave out Mike Evans, the lead

961
00:49:56,800 --> 00:49:59,920
Speaker 3: the league in touchdowns. Uh, just him and him and

962
00:50:00,400 --> 00:50:04,040
Speaker 3: this incredible connection this season that's been crazy. So it's

963
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:06,960
Speaker 3: hard to go against that. Where the Eagles have one

964
00:50:06,960 --> 00:50:09,239
Speaker 3: of the worst pass defenses I've ever seen in my

965
00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:12,879
Speaker 3: life watching football. Like, I mean, Taylor last week could

966
00:50:12,920 --> 00:50:16,440
Speaker 3: do whatever he wanted passing against this defense. So if

967
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:19,440
Speaker 3: I get news that Baker has gotten better, his shoulder

968
00:50:19,520 --> 00:50:22,040
Speaker 3: is healed by by the time this game rolls around

969
00:50:22,040 --> 00:50:24,239
Speaker 3: on Monday, don't be shocking in the app if you

970
00:50:24,239 --> 00:50:25,839
Speaker 3: do see me take the Bucks because we sit here

971
00:50:25,880 --> 00:50:28,560
Speaker 3: right now. If I know he's banged up, I know

972
00:50:28,560 --> 00:50:31,239
Speaker 3: how much better this Eagles team that offensively, they should

973
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:32,799
Speaker 3: be able to run the ball at will against this

974
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:35,239
Speaker 3: Bucks team and basically do whatever they want against this

975
00:50:35,320 --> 00:50:38,719
Speaker 3: Bucks team. I got it back this Eagles, so I'm

976
00:50:38,719 --> 00:50:40,719
Speaker 3: not gonna I'm gonna grab it now just in case

977
00:50:40,760 --> 00:50:42,880
Speaker 3: it does keep going up. I'll grab the three in

978
00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 3: case news comes out that Baker's really banged up. This

979
00:50:45,560 --> 00:50:48,640
Speaker 3: number could easily jump up to four if he's out.

980
00:50:49,080 --> 00:50:50,759
Speaker 3: What do you see this number get through six, six

981
00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:54,840
Speaker 3: and a half if it's trash yeah, uh So, just

982
00:50:54,880 --> 00:50:57,520
Speaker 3: to be safe, I'm gonna take the Eagles now with

983
00:50:57,560 --> 00:50:59,800
Speaker 3: this number because it has been running up and I

984
00:50:59,800 --> 00:51:01,600
Speaker 3: can every produ I've talked to you so far they

985
00:51:01,600 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 3: do like this spot all right.

986
00:51:04,800 --> 00:51:08,120
Speaker 1: As a reminder, Simon, you can catch every episode of

987
00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:11,240
Speaker 1: The Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube,

988
00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:12,840
Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to

989
00:51:12,880 --> 00:51:16,640
Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. Also, the Favorites is presented

990
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:17,759
Speaker 1: by Bet three sixty five.

991
00:51:17,800 --> 00:51:20,200
Speaker 2: Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary.

992
00:51:20,200 --> 00:51:22,520
Speaker 1: That's why you get more boosts with them than with

993
00:51:22,719 --> 00:51:25,319
Speaker 1: anyone else. Every day they power out the as one

994
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Speaker 1: hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more.

995
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:30,480
Speaker 1: Bet three six five boost specific markets, your winnings and

996
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Speaker 1: even parlays, and they don't stop there. Keep an eye

997
00:51:33,000 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 1: out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible

998
00:51:35,680 --> 00:51:38,920
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999
00:51:38,920 --> 00:51:42,040
Speaker 1: never ordinary at Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty

1000
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:47,880
Speaker 1: one or older and present in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,

1001
00:51:48,000 --> 00:51:51,520
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

1002
00:51:51,560 --> 00:51:55,400
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms.

1003
00:51:55,400 --> 00:51:59,960
Speaker 1: Conditioned restrictions apply. Before we go again, we do want

1004
00:52:00,200 --> 00:52:05,120
Speaker 1: to congratulate our first place winner, Jesse Goldberg one more time,

1005
00:52:05,840 --> 00:52:11,799
Speaker 1: as well as our second and third place finishers Sam

1006
00:52:12,040 --> 00:52:19,320
Speaker 1: and Nolan. To finish first, Jesse endured quite a week eighteen.

1007
00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:22,920
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell producer Matt Mitchell is going to come on

1008
00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:28,240
Speaker 1: and explain how things went down and how it all

1009
00:52:28,280 --> 00:52:32,800
Speaker 1: comes back to one team that is Cris.

1010
00:52:32,600 --> 00:52:36,240
Speaker 3: Des al Okay, last, but not least, Uncle Mitch.

1011
00:52:36,719 --> 00:52:41,319
Speaker 4: The gambling world this season revolves around the beloved Carolina Panthers. So,

1012
00:52:41,840 --> 00:52:46,120
Speaker 4: like you mentioned, there's three entries that were battling for

1013
00:52:46,719 --> 00:52:51,040
Speaker 4: first place and the forty thousand dollars grand prize, Jesse,

1014
00:52:51,440 --> 00:52:56,000
Speaker 4: Nolan and Sam. Jesse was in the lead, but if

1015
00:52:56,200 --> 00:53:00,680
Speaker 4: either no One or Sam gained one game, they would win.

1016
00:53:01,120 --> 00:53:03,520
Speaker 4: Sam would win by having more wins, and no one

1017
00:53:03,560 --> 00:53:08,719
Speaker 4: would win on tibreaker differential. So first up, let's see

1018
00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:12,160
Speaker 4: if no one can gain a game. Jesse the leader.

1019
00:53:12,480 --> 00:53:16,920
Speaker 4: Hecks Las Vegas, Tennessee, Chicago, and Atlanta. Those are four

1020
00:53:16,960 --> 00:53:22,160
Speaker 4: of the games, and no one picks. Let's see Las Vegas, Tennessee, Chicago, Atlanta.

1021
00:53:22,239 --> 00:53:24,799
Speaker 4: Oh shit, you're gonna need to win and he's gonna

1022
00:53:24,840 --> 00:53:28,200
Speaker 4: need to lose. Jesse selected Buffalo. That's a winner. No

1023
00:53:28,239 --> 00:53:30,880
Speaker 4: one selected the Rams. That's a winner. They both go

1024
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:31,520
Speaker 4: three and two.

1025
00:53:31,880 --> 00:53:32,759
Speaker 2: That sucks.

1026
00:53:33,160 --> 00:53:35,880
Speaker 4: No one would finish third, pick up five. G's not

1027
00:53:36,000 --> 00:53:39,080
Speaker 4: a bad day at the office, Sam, who will be

1028
00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:43,600
Speaker 4: joining us live in person, for our Sunday live show

1029
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:45,920
Speaker 4: at the Shepherd on the Knucklehead and beautiful New Jersey

1030
00:53:46,000 --> 00:53:48,680
Speaker 4: and who seems like a swell guy. That guy needs

1031
00:53:48,760 --> 00:53:51,320
Speaker 4: to go four and one to get the forty thousand

1032
00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:55,600
Speaker 4: dollars grand prize. He starts off with three winners. He

1033
00:53:55,680 --> 00:53:58,040
Speaker 4: starts off three and oh. It all comes down to

1034
00:53:58,120 --> 00:54:01,200
Speaker 4: his last two games. His first his versed in Seattle

1035
00:54:01,440 --> 00:54:04,640
Speaker 4: minus two and a half, and Seattle won the game

1036
00:54:05,080 --> 00:54:07,920
Speaker 4: by exactly one because they tied the game at the

1037
00:54:08,000 --> 00:54:11,960
Speaker 4: end and went for two, which totally fucked over Sam.

1038
00:54:12,080 --> 00:54:13,920
Speaker 4: But no problem, he's got one more shot.

1039
00:54:14,080 --> 00:54:14,839
Speaker 2: Who did he take?

1040
00:54:15,120 --> 00:54:18,160
Speaker 4: That's right, the Carolina Panthers plus four and a half.

1041
00:54:18,960 --> 00:54:21,160
Speaker 4: They lost nine to nothing. All they had to do

1042
00:54:21,239 --> 00:54:25,440
Speaker 4: was score one touchdown. They had one touchdown bumbled over

1043
00:54:25,480 --> 00:54:28,719
Speaker 4: the pylon after a nine hundred hour review, and they

1044
00:54:28,719 --> 00:54:33,319
Speaker 4: had another beautiful touchdown called back on the dumbest procedural.

1045
00:54:33,600 --> 00:54:35,919
Speaker 4: This guy didn't line up next to this guy. Kind

1046
00:54:35,920 --> 00:54:40,560
Speaker 4: of inane penalty. Just an absolute torture chamber for this

1047
00:54:40,680 --> 00:54:41,440
Speaker 4: poor bastard.

1048
00:54:42,040 --> 00:54:45,520
Speaker 3: This sucks and his horseshit. But I'm too polite to

1049
00:54:45,560 --> 00:54:47,520
Speaker 3: say anything because I'm a class act.

1050
00:54:47,719 --> 00:54:50,560
Speaker 4: And that is how Jesse claimed victory. I believe he

1051
00:54:51,080 --> 00:54:56,000
Speaker 4: finished almost seventy two percent against the spread for the season.

1052
00:54:56,320 --> 00:54:59,359
Speaker 4: Congratulations to him. He will be joining us as a

1053
00:54:59,400 --> 00:55:01,400
Speaker 4: segment in our next episode.

1054
00:55:01,960 --> 00:55:03,040
Speaker 2: Oh my god.

1055
00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:06,080
Speaker 4: Sorry, the best quote from Jesse when I said, do

1056
00:55:06,120 --> 00:55:08,360
Speaker 4: you want to come on? What were you thinking? You know,

1057
00:55:08,520 --> 00:55:11,280
Speaker 4: when that day was unfolding. So when I made my pecks,

1058
00:55:11,719 --> 00:55:15,040
Speaker 4: I said, if I lose forty thousand dollars because of

1059
00:55:15,080 --> 00:55:18,520
Speaker 4: the fucking Panthers, I'll never be able to live with myself.

1060
00:55:18,840 --> 00:55:20,520
Speaker 4: And I said, now you have to come on the

1061
00:55:20,560 --> 00:55:23,520
Speaker 4: show because you speak for literally every single one.

1062
00:55:23,440 --> 00:55:24,160
Speaker 2: Up our listeners.

1063
00:55:25,239 --> 00:55:27,319
Speaker 1: We went two and six picking the Panthers this year,

1064
00:55:27,320 --> 00:55:30,799
Speaker 1: and they're primarily responsible for our big Balls bet of

1065
00:55:30,840 --> 00:55:34,000
Speaker 1: the Week terrible streak in the middle of the year.

1066
00:55:34,480 --> 00:55:38,719
Speaker 1: I am so sorry for Sam. I hope we did

1067
00:55:38,719 --> 00:55:41,560
Speaker 1: not influence your decision to pick the Panthers in any

1068
00:55:41,760 --> 00:55:44,719
Speaker 1: possible way, but we look forward to seeing you on

1069
00:55:44,840 --> 00:55:47,160
Speaker 1: Sunday at the Shepherd and the Knucklehead.

1070
00:55:47,200 --> 00:55:50,360
Speaker 2: Doors open at four pm, live show at seven thirty.

1071
00:55:50,480 --> 00:55:53,480
Speaker 1: Sam will be there to take the blame off of

1072
00:55:53,560 --> 00:55:56,759
Speaker 1: us and put it all on his shoulders. RSVP in

1073
00:55:56,840 --> 00:56:00,919
Speaker 1: the link in the description page, free entry, freeks. Even

1074
00:56:00,920 --> 00:56:03,920
Speaker 1: though it's free drinks, will still be buying sam plenty.

1075
00:56:03,719 --> 00:56:05,719
Speaker 2: Of drinks at the show.

1076
00:56:06,239 --> 00:56:09,680
Speaker 1: Be sure to catch our next episode of The Favorites

1077
00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:12,440
Speaker 1: live on the Action Network You two page this Thursday,

1078
00:56:12,719 --> 00:56:16,279
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