1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm m Keene 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Jay Leye. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg We begin, though, 5 00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 1: with the quarterly earning season with JP Morgan down in 6 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 1: the pre market by about four tenths of one percent. 7 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:41,240 Speaker 1: I'm going to whip through some of the headline numbers. 8 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 1: JP morgan fourth quarter adjusted revenue came at twenty five 9 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 1: point four five billion dollars the estimate five point five one. 10 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:51,080 Speaker 1: The fourth quarter adjusted EPs came in at a dollar 11 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 1: and seventies six cents fixed income trading revenue, well below 12 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 1: analyst estimates. These results, of course, include a two point 13 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 1: four billion dollar a charge as a result of a 14 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 1: tax bill. And to get some guidance on where JP 15 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:07,839 Speaker 1: Morgan sees the effective tax rate for eighteen, they see 16 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 1: it around nineteen percent. I'm very pleased to say I 17 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:13,040 Speaker 1: can bring in Bloomberg's day in Campbell now to get 18 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 1: us up to speed on on what he sees in 19 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:16,959 Speaker 1: the numbers. We've been staying for a while day can 20 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:20,920 Speaker 1: we're expecting it to be a murky quarterly report from 21 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 1: not just JPMorgan but across the street. Yes, that's that's 22 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:27,480 Speaker 1: for sure. This is no exception to get us started. 23 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 1: One thing that I noticed in the result is expenses 24 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:35,120 Speaker 1: are higher than analysts expected. That's never a good sign, 25 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 1: especially at this point in the h in the business 26 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:41,000 Speaker 1: cycle for these banks. They've been slashing expenses for for 27 00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:44,759 Speaker 1: years and UH and to be surprising on the up 28 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 1: side in a quarter like this, I think maybe one 29 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 1: reason why they shares her down. I'm not sure how 30 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 1: much guidance we can take from the interday move pre market. 31 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 1: Because they had such a monster year last year they 32 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 1: can going forward. I'm still sitting here wondering where the 33 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 1: revenue comes from. Let's deal with the investment bank. First 34 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 1: trading rem new has been rough for a while, Volatility 35 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 1: is not in their client activity won't be what it 36 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 1: otherwise would be. Are we going to see a change 37 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 1: this year? That's the hope, certainly among Wall Street trading desks. UH, 38 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:14,960 Speaker 1: there is some reason for optimism. You you've got central 39 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 1: banks UH, and monetary policy diverging around the world. There 40 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 1: is some thought that that's gonna help bring volatility back 41 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:26,520 Speaker 1: into the markets and give some opportunities for both clients 42 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 1: and UH and traders. But we've been we've talked about 43 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:33,360 Speaker 1: that in twenty seventeen and it didn't really uh come 44 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:36,280 Speaker 1: to fruition. So I think that's still a question mark 45 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 1: for So we've got JP Morgan and typically a Bloomberg. 46 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:41,359 Speaker 1: We talk about the big investment bank, and we don't 47 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:44,080 Speaker 1: spend much time talking about Chase Chase of course, a 48 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:47,519 Speaker 1: massive retail arm. Can these guys continue to increase the 49 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: NEN interest margin and continue to maintain such low deposit beta? 50 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 1: And what I mean by cutting through the jargon, can 51 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:56,240 Speaker 1: they continue to ignore the rate rises that come from 52 00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve without passing them on to the deposit base. 53 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:03,080 Speaker 1: That is the big question. Uh. You know this is 54 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:07,080 Speaker 1: interest rates have never been at zero percent before, and 55 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:09,680 Speaker 1: so coming off of a floor like that, a lot 56 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:12,959 Speaker 1: of analysts have had a hard time modeling what deposit 57 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 1: betas or how much banks will have to pay depositors. Uh. 58 00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:20,080 Speaker 1: It's not like any other cycle. And so we have 59 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 1: started seeing interest rates deposit rates tick tick up, and 60 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 1: so there is some indication that maybe that will continue 61 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:30,080 Speaker 1: and make it a little bit harder for banks to 62 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:32,919 Speaker 1: expand their margin as much as they as they may like. 63 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 1: But again we're coming off a very low base. Banks 64 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 1: typically can move the and they position themselves. They can 65 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:42,280 Speaker 1: move the rate that they're getting on the loans uh 66 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 1: more quickly than they than they typically do on the deposits. 67 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 1: So that should allow them to expand that margin. Taking 68 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:50,840 Speaker 1: Campbell with us is he's gonna get ready for his 69 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 1: reporting on this and to advance the story further. We 70 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 1: like to do that with Bradyn's legendary at Sanford Bernstein. 71 00:03:57,320 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 1: His black book was it required historical and present tense 72 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 1: read for years by hold selling the banks, and he 73 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 1: now has a shingle out at the New York University 74 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:09,800 Speaker 1: Stern School of Business where he crushes people with quality 75 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 1: ces each and every quarter. Professor, it's wonderful day. Have 76 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:16,520 Speaker 1: you with us? I want to wax philosophical. Seeing a 77 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg headline JP Morgan fixed income training revenue drops percent? 78 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:26,320 Speaker 1: Do we have an excess of banking in America? Are 79 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:29,840 Speaker 1: What we're really dealing with here is there's too much 80 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:37,479 Speaker 1: much iedness in banking. Um, well, that's a you could 81 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 1: argue that on the retail side, which is if you 82 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:43,360 Speaker 1: if you think of the millennials, the millennials probably don't 83 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 1: visit bank branches a lot branches. I think there's absolutely 84 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 1: certain you're but the your lead in which is fixed income, 85 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:55,479 Speaker 1: fixed income, has already cut back. I mean what you're 86 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:58,839 Speaker 1: what you're seeing with fixed income is a recognition on 87 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:01,479 Speaker 1: the part of all the banks that there will be 88 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:04,640 Speaker 1: a fixed income market. Someone at some point is going 89 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 1: to have to pay for liquidity um. At some point 90 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 1: the Vulcar rules will will will loosen up a little 91 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:14,680 Speaker 1: bit so that you can make money from market making. 92 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:18,480 Speaker 1: But you know right now that is that is a hope. 93 00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:20,840 Speaker 1: That's a hope. I love that. I hope you can 94 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 1: say that. In academics they can hope. Professor Hin says 95 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: that like three times in any given lecture that he 96 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 1: just forget about the hope. Jamie Diamond, Brian moynihan, and arrest. 97 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 1: They have to deal with this. Have they cut trading 98 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 1: to the bone or is there more to come? I 99 00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 1: think there's a feeling out there that they have cut 100 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 1: trading to the bone. Uh. One one thing we we 101 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 1: haven't talked about is how you sort of uh, convinced 102 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:48,360 Speaker 1: some traders to leave the bank when you don't want 103 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:50,480 Speaker 1: to cut them necessarily. How do you do that, Chief 104 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 1: financial officer hands Um, that's called a buyout, right something 105 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 1: like that? You uh, you you start seeing that they're 106 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 1: not invited to the to the best meetings, their clients 107 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:07,159 Speaker 1: are taken away from them, and then next thing that 108 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 1: sounds like Bloomberg taking taken This is the kickoff to 109 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 1: an earning season. Do you do you? Since you know 110 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:18,240 Speaker 1: within our team a similarity bank to bank in terms, 111 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 1: I mean, John, what's it like in the United Kingdom? 112 00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 1: Is it trading? Trading that slow there as well? Training slow, 113 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:25,240 Speaker 1: training slow across the board. But I think client mix 114 00:06:25,279 --> 00:06:27,360 Speaker 1: has been really important over the last couple of quarters, 115 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 1: depending on the client mix. If you're really exposed the 116 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 1: institutional clients the hedge funds, for instance, then the vix 117 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:35,200 Speaker 1: tells the story of what the quarta is going to 118 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:37,520 Speaker 1: be like. But if you've got a real good corporate 119 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 1: client mixed, like say Bank America, fixed income trading holds 120 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:43,599 Speaker 1: up because you've been exposed to that big boom in 121 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:46,039 Speaker 1: corporate debt issuance that we've had over the last couple 122 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:47,680 Speaker 1: of years. Is that going to be important this time around? 123 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 1: Day can as well that Yes, we think so. But 124 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 1: JP Morgan is one of those banks that has that 125 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 1: flow business, has a lot of corporate clients, and they 126 00:06:56,800 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 1: turned in a disappointing fixed income quarter. So I sort 127 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:02,839 Speaker 1: of shudder to think of what people at Goldman are 128 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:05,480 Speaker 1: thinking on a daylight today. And we tite one set 129 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 1: of earnings and we extrapolate it forward. We think about, 130 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:11,040 Speaker 1: what's JP Morgan gonna report now after Bank of America, say, 131 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:13,320 Speaker 1: and then next up Goldman Sex as well, what's the 132 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 1: read for Bank b of A and Goldman SAX next week? Yeah, 133 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:18,560 Speaker 1: the read for b of A and City I would 134 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:21,960 Speaker 1: add to the equation which also have big corporate businesses 135 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 1: like uh, like JP Morrigan is you know, it could 136 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 1: be down thirty percent, maybe a little bit less. All 137 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 1: three of them coming into the quarter said, uh, trading 138 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:35,680 Speaker 1: overall was going to be down about fifteen percent, So 139 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 1: they were all in the in the range. Uh. For 140 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:40,840 Speaker 1: the Goldman Sacks and the Morgan Stanleys of the world, 141 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:44,800 Speaker 1: which have less of a corporate business, less flow trading, 142 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:48,000 Speaker 1: the story maybe even uglier this quarter. I mean, I 143 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: think that's gonna be the read out of looking at 144 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 1: JP Morgan. If they can't turn in a good quarter 145 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 1: on fixed income trading, then then then how is Goldman 146 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 1: going to do? Bread hands? I just got a first 147 00:07:57,520 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 1: statistic here. The earnings have come out really nuge two 148 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 1: day and JP Morgan they used they're best in class 149 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:04,680 Speaker 1: in terms of putting out earnings and it's been a 150 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 1: struggle to get the data. Bright and seven r o E. 151 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:14,080 Speaker 1: I'm sorry. Managers have to stand up and do something right. Yes, 152 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 1: um recognize is viewed as good. I mean that's the 153 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:22,920 Speaker 1: cost of capital of these banks. So, I mean what 154 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:26,280 Speaker 1: has happened is we've become used to the idea of 155 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 1: of you know, below cost of capital performance. Jamie's got 156 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 1: the best firm. Now this quarter, this quarter is going 157 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 1: to be an unusual quarter, right because we've got all 158 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 1: these tax rates to be a mess, Professor, isn't it 159 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:41,320 Speaker 1: That's an opportunity if you're the CFO, to throw everything 160 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:44,560 Speaker 1: you can into it because the analysts are going to 161 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 1: are going to look at the quarter and say it's 162 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 1: an aberration. I'm not going to worry about it, right, 163 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 1: and so you throw X ray expenses, your rite things off, 164 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 1: you let people go. This is any time you have 165 00:08:57,520 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 1: an event like this, it's a it's an opertunity to 166 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:03,479 Speaker 1: take the wheelbarrel out. And John the Tier one Capital's 167 00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:07,560 Speaker 1: ubs like, I mean twelve point one twelve point four 168 00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 1: percent common equity Tier one capital, Dacon, they're on the 169 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:14,600 Speaker 1: edge of credit suite and ubs in terms of financial integrity. 170 00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:17,960 Speaker 1: They're hold They're holding a lot of capital. Yes, they 171 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 1: would certainly for all of Jamie talks about his Fortress 172 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 1: balance sheet, he would certainly like to hold last capital. Okay, 173 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:25,439 Speaker 1: this is making to Dick and Campbell. Get back to 174 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:27,720 Speaker 1: work at your real job. And Brad Hans, thank you 175 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 1: so much for being with us today. Look for Dacon 176 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:33,240 Speaker 1: Campbell's work on Bloomberg News, further depth on JP Morgan 177 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:51,319 Speaker 1: and American banking. This is Bloomberg. We are more than 178 00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 1: close to a two percent two year yield. That means 179 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 1: it's a good time to talk to Ellen Zentner Morgan Stanley. 180 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:03,040 Speaker 1: She over the year has been wonderful at parsing y 181 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:05,959 Speaker 1: equals C plus I plus G plus n X and 182 00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:09,480 Speaker 1: really had great acclaim eighteen months and two years ago. 183 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:11,960 Speaker 1: I'm saying this is a Fed that would be forced 184 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 1: to wait and wait and wait. Is a two percent 185 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 1: yield on the two year a signal that we're going 186 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:22,320 Speaker 1: to have a significant set of rate increases this year? Well, 187 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:26,679 Speaker 1: I think that, Uh, you know, we expect three rate hikes, right, 188 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:30,160 Speaker 1: and if the tenure does not move much, or if 189 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:32,719 Speaker 1: it moves lower yields on the tenure, then you're going 190 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 1: to have a very flat yield curve. And so the 191 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 1: Fed is going to have a very difficult decision at 192 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:42,000 Speaker 1: that time, say in the third quarter of this year. Uh, 193 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:45,079 Speaker 1: do they push it further because financial conditions may still 194 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:48,440 Speaker 1: be easy to tell them they should go further, or 195 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:53,079 Speaker 1: do they take a flat yield curve as as as 196 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 1: a sign that if you go further, you're gonna risk 197 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:58,719 Speaker 1: converting the yield curve. But what's missing is inflation. You're 198 00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 1: one of the great parsers of inflation. Do you just 199 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:05,440 Speaker 1: hope inflations out there? If your chairman, Powell, do you 200 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:07,880 Speaker 1: wish for it as across my fingers, hope to die? 201 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:14,120 Speaker 1: How do you do all this if there's no inflation? Well, so, 202 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:17,360 Speaker 1: hope is a big piece of it. Right. As a forecaster, 203 00:11:17,520 --> 00:11:20,080 Speaker 1: you do your best forecasting where you think inflation will go, 204 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:23,679 Speaker 1: and developments in the economy and the way the data 205 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:26,000 Speaker 1: comes in will either give you more confidence about that 206 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:30,080 Speaker 1: assumption or less confidence about their assumption. And how confident 207 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 1: you are in your inflation forecast that we will get 208 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 1: to the two percent goal at some point over the 209 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:41,640 Speaker 1: medium term horizon will dictate what they do today. UH. 210 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 1: And so basically the mount Hornback, our global head of 211 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 1: right Strategy, sees the tenure yield on the tenure moving 212 00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:52,600 Speaker 1: lower this year UH basically a completely flat yield curve 213 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:55,640 Speaker 1: in the third quarter and slightly inverted in the fourth quarter. 214 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:59,679 Speaker 1: Part of what's driving that estimate of his is the 215 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:03,600 Speaker 1: fact that we have such a tepid forecast for inflation. 216 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:06,200 Speaker 1: We're coming in lower than what the Fed expects, than 217 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 1: what consensus expects in terms of the path we're looking for. 218 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:11,719 Speaker 1: And in his estimation, if the Fed continues to hike 219 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:16,439 Speaker 1: rates with inflation not materializing, right, you're going to continue 220 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 1: to get a market that bets every hike is a mistake, 221 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:21,280 Speaker 1: and that recessions around the corner, and it's just going 222 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 1: to be very difficult to see how the yield kurse 223 00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:25,720 Speaker 1: deepens in that environment and Ellen, I'm going to have 224 00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:27,720 Speaker 1: the privilege of speaking to Matt Hornback a little bit 225 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 1: later on on Blood Black TV, So I'm looking forward 226 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 1: to having this conversation with him. Was that a shameless 227 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:37,320 Speaker 1: plug before seventh for the company? We both and in 228 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 1: my humble opinion, Matt Hornbuck is an excellent guest, so 229 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 1: it ought to be a really good conversation. Thank you 230 00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 1: very much, Tom. Can you just let us have a 231 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:46,720 Speaker 1: conversation now? Thank you? Um CPI is going to come 232 00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 1: in a little bit later. It's not as if we 233 00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:50,560 Speaker 1: don't have any inflation. It's going to be north at 234 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 1: two per year on year you back out food and energy, 235 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 1: it's going to be around one seventy there the estimates 236 00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 1: the previous number quite similar as well. Is it a 237 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 1: bit disingenuous to say there is no inflation in the 238 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 1: United States of America because we do see some, right, 239 00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 1: we do see inflation. That's price growth, and prices are growing, 240 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:11,240 Speaker 1: but they're just not growing uh quick as quickly as 241 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:13,880 Speaker 1: the FED would like them too. And there's not enough evidence, 242 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:16,680 Speaker 1: especially when you look at core PC. They're they're the 243 00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 1: measure they anchor their two percent goal around. There's just 244 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:21,600 Speaker 1: not enough evidence to him to them that there is 245 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:25,840 Speaker 1: a sustained pick up in inflation. But they believe that 246 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 1: the recipe is there. Growth is coming in well above potential, 247 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 1: the unemployment rate is low, much lower than where they 248 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 1: think full employment is UH, and they're keeping financial conditions 249 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:39,440 Speaker 1: very easy to encourage those inflationary pressures to build. And 250 00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:42,719 Speaker 1: that's why they have confidence that they will get two 251 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:44,679 Speaker 1: percent some time over the medium term. Now, notice I 252 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:48,040 Speaker 1: keep stressing the medium term for the Fed. They don't 253 00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:50,679 Speaker 1: need to see two percent now or tomorrow in order 254 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:52,680 Speaker 1: to raise rates. They just need to be convinced that 255 00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:55,840 Speaker 1: the right UH environment is there for it to get 256 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:59,160 Speaker 1: there over time. But the market is much too impatient 257 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 1: for that, and you'll not convinced that they can get 258 00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 1: to that. No, we're not. We're not convinced. And I 259 00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:06,200 Speaker 1: tell you what the We have been doing the traditional 260 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:10,080 Speaker 1: way of forecasting inflation for a long time. Inflation expectations 261 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 1: lagged values of actual inflation, trade weighted dollar, all of 262 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:16,840 Speaker 1: the above. But we had not properly taken into account 263 00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:20,000 Speaker 1: technological effects on inflation, and when we did, it just 264 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 1: brings the path down that much lower. One minute, Morgan 265 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 1: Stanley is a claim for parsing this strange thing. Productivity. 266 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:30,520 Speaker 1: What are you observing in the next one quarter, two quarters, 267 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 1: three quarters? On productivity? What are you looking for? We've 268 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 1: got a cyclical rise in in capex that has already 269 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:40,520 Speaker 1: led to higher rates of productivity, and so we're looking 270 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 1: between one and one and a half percent one to 271 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:45,520 Speaker 1: one and a half percent sustained in productivity. And the 272 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 1: story there is that you just take that in a vacuum. 273 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:50,800 Speaker 1: It looks pretty tepid, right, but compared to about flat 274 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:53,320 Speaker 1: for the last five to six years, I think that's 275 00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:55,400 Speaker 1: as good as it gets. And that's a pretty good story. 276 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 1: A cyclical pickup and productivity can stretch the cycle for longer. 277 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 1: Ellen Saner, thank you so much. With Morgan Stanley on 278 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 1: this important today. Lots of news, loan, some real shifts. Goland, okay, 279 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:19,800 Speaker 1: let's get focused. Bank of America two d and ten 280 00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:24,400 Speaker 1: thousand employees, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo even more two d 281 00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:27,000 Speaker 1: and sixty eight thousand in City Group. It's a tiny 282 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 1: bank two hundred thousand as well. He's out of Kellogg 283 00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:34,240 Speaker 1: at Northwestern a real NBA program. Neil dar joins us 284 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 1: with p WC on financial services. What I love about 285 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:40,520 Speaker 1: Northwestern and the legacy of it. The MIC's over there, Neil, 286 00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 1: You've got to get close to the mic. What what 287 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 1: I love about Northwestern is a core curricula. If you 288 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 1: were to teach financial services right now within the core 289 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 1: curriculate Northwestaurant, what would be your number one message to 290 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 1: the best and brightest. There's a lot of change out there. 291 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:57,440 Speaker 1: There's a lot of change, and we have to look 292 00:15:57,440 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 1: at things that are impacting the industry broadly. Uh coming 293 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:02,920 Speaker 1: at us in a lot of different directions. Technology is 294 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,560 Speaker 1: front center right. Did a panel of Davos three or 295 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:08,640 Speaker 1: four years ago? The Third world was way ahead of 296 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:12,840 Speaker 1: us and used to technology. What are the big countries America, 297 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 1: United Kingdom, Germany, et cetera. What are they doing in 298 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:19,200 Speaker 1: the next twenty four months on technology? Well, technology, if 299 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 1: you if you think about it. Over the last several years, 300 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 1: there's been a lot of fintech activity where fintech has 301 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:26,560 Speaker 1: been doing a number of things that now the bigger 302 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 1: companies are absorbing, either through acquisitions or actually just embracing it. 303 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 1: Fintech at times can struggle to scale um so every 304 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:39,200 Speaker 1: element of a company, at least in financial services. What 305 00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 1: we see across the banks, the insurers and the asset 306 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:46,240 Speaker 1: managers are looking at front office, mid office and back 307 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:50,200 Speaker 1: office innervation. How technology can make things um more efficient 308 00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 1: firstly than secondly changing the customer experience. If I have 309 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 1: a million employees at the top five or six banks total, 310 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 1: how many of them are not going to be employed 311 00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:04,960 Speaker 1: at those banks in twenty four months or far more importantly, 312 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:07,800 Speaker 1: five years. That's a great question. They've got a right 313 00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:11,440 Speaker 1: size at some point. Well, it's a great question. I mean, 314 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:13,639 Speaker 1: what we're seeing right now is what the real impact 315 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 1: of digital labor is going to be. And what I 316 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:18,200 Speaker 1: mean by digital labor is things you hear about things 317 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:22,119 Speaker 1: like robotic and artificial intelligence, where it's making things more efficient. 318 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:25,639 Speaker 1: We're working through right now the life cycle of how 319 00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:28,760 Speaker 1: that type of technology is going to impact the day 320 00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:31,399 Speaker 1: to day business, and then that'll get to if I 321 00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:34,400 Speaker 1: walk home to the man's okay, this is six bedrooms, 322 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:38,640 Speaker 1: five fireplaces, three dogs, I go by eighteen banks, they're 323 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:43,439 Speaker 1: all empty. Forget about AI, forget about robots. The old 324 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:48,119 Speaker 1: model of banking that PwC advises them on every single 325 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:52,440 Speaker 1: day is a dinosaur. How many bodies will go out 326 00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:56,680 Speaker 1: the door. Well, a percentage it is, it is changing dramatically. 327 00:17:56,840 --> 00:18:00,400 Speaker 1: So your point around walking home and seeing the empty answers, 328 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:04,680 Speaker 1: we are seeing that customer experience dramatically change in relation 329 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:07,880 Speaker 1: to UH. There was a survey that that we did 330 00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:12,800 Speaker 1: that shows fifty two percent fifty two percent of folks 331 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 1: are actually looking at digital banking in relation to the 332 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:17,399 Speaker 1: way they do things on a day in and day 333 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:21,800 Speaker 1: out basis, transferring money, um, paying bills UM. So so 334 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:23,520 Speaker 1: you're point a spot on in relation of what is 335 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:25,199 Speaker 1: that going to mean in relation to them? When do 336 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:27,560 Speaker 1: I start seeing press conferences that aren't a lot of 337 00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:31,439 Speaker 1: happy talk about tax bills and use of cash and 338 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:35,119 Speaker 1: are I'm sorry the models over? I mean, I get it, 339 00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:37,919 Speaker 1: their control management is going to be doing gradually. I 340 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:41,440 Speaker 1: get that, But five years from now on a given 341 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:45,679 Speaker 1: million employees, it a huge part of American banking. I 342 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,600 Speaker 1: can't get a real answer on how many bodies on 343 00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 1: a percentage basis go out the door. Well, look, I 344 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 1: think you're gonna have to see these business models evolve, 345 00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 1: and as these business models evolved, we will see natural 346 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 1: knock on in act. So on the people's side of things, 347 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:04,440 Speaker 1: what we're seeing at a number of our clients, uh 348 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:08,120 Speaker 1: is folks actually embracing digital labor in relation to doing 349 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:11,800 Speaker 1: things differently and then using their folks to actually do 350 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 1: things differently in relation to and UM analytics and and 351 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,159 Speaker 1: actually doing a deeper dive into various things. Will that 352 00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:23,959 Speaker 1: last over time? We'll see what does it mean for mergers? 353 00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:26,679 Speaker 1: It it it the regional banks. I mean, you know 354 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,400 Speaker 1: we're talking this morning. JP Morgan could barely move the needle. 355 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:31,399 Speaker 1: They're so big. I went over the scope and scale 356 00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:35,880 Speaker 1: of trillion dollar numbers with JP Morgan. What does regionals 357 00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:40,919 Speaker 1: do to compete with this new digital labor and new technology. Well, 358 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:43,679 Speaker 1: I think the regionals will continue to do consolidation. I 359 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 1: think they'll continue to sort of grow in that aspect um. 360 00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:49,639 Speaker 1: They're doing interesting things because of different size and scale. 361 00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:51,720 Speaker 1: I think the global banks just have a different footprint 362 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 1: and profile, so they'll probably get bigger on on on 363 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:58,919 Speaker 1: the global stage in certain extent. Neil Dart with US 364 00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:02,600 Speaker 1: with p WCS had a financial services as well. Are 365 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:07,280 Speaker 1: the global American banks competitive? The global American banks are 366 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:10,159 Speaker 1: competitive in RELATIONSHIPAUS That's a message I get in London. 367 00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:13,639 Speaker 1: They are the US banks are really competitive. They are compared. 368 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:16,680 Speaker 1: What is the distinction of a given American banker going 369 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:20,359 Speaker 1: into a median in Poland than somebody from the other 370 00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:24,520 Speaker 1: platforms of France, Switzerland, United Kingdom. Well, it depends on 371 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 1: in relation to what part of the bank you're talking about. 372 00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:30,879 Speaker 1: Um but um but but yes, us banks are getting 373 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,480 Speaker 1: uh they are strong and they're getting stronger. Um. I 374 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:38,160 Speaker 1: think with a bit less regulation you'll see that these 375 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,880 Speaker 1: banks become even more competitive. Um so so so it's 376 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:43,720 Speaker 1: it's it's a good place to be right now. Now. 377 00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:45,960 Speaker 1: These banks also are going through their own evolution in 378 00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 1: relation to sort of doing things more efficiently. Uh so, 379 00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:53,160 Speaker 1: things around cost, in relationship, constantly making things more better 380 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 1: in improving the experience, but also looking at how to 381 00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:58,440 Speaker 1: do um cost in a more cost effective way. What 382 00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:00,720 Speaker 1: do the banks do that are so are lost in 383 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 1: the cracks. They're either big but they're not too big 384 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:06,199 Speaker 1: or there there there may be too big to be 385 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 1: a regional they're these I don't want to mention names, 386 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:12,280 Speaker 1: but there's given banks worldwide where I can't figure out 387 00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:16,560 Speaker 1: what the strategic mission is because they don't have scale. Well, 388 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:21,440 Speaker 1: certain banks playing in a very regional model UM and UM, 389 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,080 Speaker 1: they will have to figure out, UM, what is their 390 00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 1: next pass in relation to will they be able to 391 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:30,520 Speaker 1: invest the way the bigger banks will, Will they have 392 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,920 Speaker 1: the innovative culture? Uh that that a smaller fintech will 393 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:37,879 Speaker 1: in relation to disruption? UM. So you hit a good point, Uh, 394 00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 1: that those banks are constantly gonna have to go through 395 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 1: their own self assessment in relation to do we do 396 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 1: something dramatic from a strategy. Is that happening in America 397 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:48,760 Speaker 1: and midsize and regional banks right now that that naval 398 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:53,240 Speaker 1: gazing into the spring of this year. Well, uh, I 399 00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:56,240 Speaker 1: mean we're talking about banks specific spankes specifically here. I 400 00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:59,080 Speaker 1: think what we're seeing on the regional side of the 401 00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:02,359 Speaker 1: banks is um on a smaller scale many of the 402 00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:04,440 Speaker 1: other things we just talked about on a larger banks. 403 00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:06,879 Speaker 1: So the impact of digital, the impact of technology, the 404 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:10,280 Speaker 1: impact of artificial intelligence. We saw black Rock today with 405 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:13,920 Speaker 1: that thought baying up numbers fift dividend increase. Assets under 406 00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 1: management is obviously the Creek key phrase three years ago, 407 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,399 Speaker 1: everybody wanted to be an asset management Is that is 408 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,880 Speaker 1: that over or is that trend just continue? I think 409 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:26,240 Speaker 1: asset managers will continue to grow in relation to consolidate 410 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:29,359 Speaker 1: like Aberdeen did. I do think you will see consolidation 411 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:31,600 Speaker 1: in the industry in relationship, but also there's a lot 412 00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,480 Speaker 1: of new product that's coming out within the asset management world. 413 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:37,240 Speaker 1: UM in relation to more and more money is chasing 414 00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:40,760 Speaker 1: yield um and I think the strong the strong will 415 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,439 Speaker 1: get stronger. Uh agreed, And I think you'll see that 416 00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 1: again through consolidation. But you've got to find a Greek 417 00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:47,800 Speaker 1: letter to have as a vogue thing for two years. 418 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,240 Speaker 1: I mean, we've done Beta, We've done Alpha. Do we 419 00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:52,320 Speaker 1: need a new Greek Do they teach Greek letters at Kel? 420 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:57,120 Speaker 1: We need a Greek letter to the Gamma fun? Him? 421 00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,680 Speaker 1: Are you can invest in the Gamma Fund? I don't invest, 422 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,359 Speaker 1: you invest? You need money to invest, Neil. One final 423 00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 1: question before we get you onto your Bitcoin day and 424 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:08,720 Speaker 1: p w C Bitcoin is that the new the new 425 00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,920 Speaker 1: name for the company. Where does bitcoin fit into all 426 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 1: of your financial services consulting. There's a lot of talk owination, cryptocrapnity, 427 00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:19,119 Speaker 1: action or is it just Look, we have a lot 428 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:23,159 Speaker 1: of discussions across the industry and rational What does this 429 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,879 Speaker 1: mean in relation to regulation? What does it mean in 430 00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:29,399 Speaker 1: relation to cyber what does it mean in relation to uh, 431 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,000 Speaker 1: you know, the way things are going to be done 432 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:33,520 Speaker 1: in the future. So a lot of discussions. We'll see 433 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:36,800 Speaker 1: how this plays out over time the answers. Nobody really knows. 434 00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:40,919 Speaker 1: I think people are figuring it out because I mean, 435 00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,199 Speaker 1: we saw the I P O flutter or E T 436 00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:45,199 Speaker 1: F flutter I can't remember which it was now this 437 00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:48,160 Speaker 1: week and I guess SEC came in. Is it yeah? 438 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,840 Speaker 1: Maybe not well I think again, you'll we'll see regulation 439 00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:54,439 Speaker 1: around it, and I think it's developing there. Thank you 440 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,800 Speaker 1: so much. The p WC and Financial Service is good 441 00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:59,520 Speaker 1: to catch up with him on a day of banking earnings. 442 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:04,159 Speaker 1: Really fascinating to see the huge capitalization of the American banks. 443 00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:15,120 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and 444 00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:20,480 Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast 445 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:24,760 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before 446 00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:28,639 Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg 447 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:29,040 Speaker 1: Radio