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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along

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Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day

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Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics

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Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are

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Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine

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Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or

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Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app Begin this hour. We're

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Speaker 2: still struggling to build on yesterday's gains as growth worries

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Speaker 2: Linker on Wall Street John Stolfus of Oppenheimer, staining Bullet's writing,

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Speaker 2: we remain positive on equities. The broad rotation, which began

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Speaker 2: in the rally from the S and P five hundred

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Speaker 2: low on October twenty seven, twenty twenty three, has repeatedly

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Speaker 2: deflected volatility. John joins us now for more. John and Mornick,

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Speaker 2: good morning, Good to see. You've said, is the policy changes?

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Speaker 2: Do the policy changes? Does the policy and sentency change

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Speaker 2: your view?

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Speaker 3: It so? No, it doesn't.

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Speaker 4: In fact, we would say, if anything, the policy uncertainty

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Speaker 4: takes us to say, well, this is just about what

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Speaker 4: you would expect. This is something you know, it's it's

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Speaker 4: Monty Python used to say. And now for something completely different.

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Speaker 4: If you consider the difference between the prior administration and

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Speaker 4: this administration, we can't help but think, you know, it's

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Speaker 4: very natural tariff The prospect of tariff wars that could

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Speaker 4: last is very concerning. Okay, to business, to the consumer,

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Speaker 4: and to governments alike on all borders. But we can't

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Speaker 4: help but think that this is a process. This is

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Speaker 4: the first president. And by the way, I'm not an

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Speaker 4: apologist for the for the Trump administration, nor was I

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Speaker 4: for the Biden administration. This is politically agnostic. It's a

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Speaker 4: business person talking when we look at it. There, for

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Speaker 4: eighty years now, the US has in effact had a

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Speaker 4: very lacks policy towards dealing with tariffs against our products

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Speaker 4: for decades. We have now exported our production and the

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Speaker 4: result of that is the rest of the world are

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Speaker 4: the producers and we're the consumers. And without us, those

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Speaker 4: other countries would suffer significantly.

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Speaker 3: They have over capacity.

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Speaker 4: In Asia, in Europe, they have over capacity in Latin America.

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Speaker 4: This is for years we have been building up the

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Speaker 4: world has been building up capacity to export to the US.

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Speaker 2: We can pounk the politics. I think you just have

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Speaker 2: to focus on the policy and the objectives. And the

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Speaker 2: objective is pretty click even everything you've said, rebalance the

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Speaker 2: US economy, rebalance the global economy for that matter, and

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Speaker 2: accept in their own words, some disruption a detox. What

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Speaker 2: does that mean for markets?

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Speaker 4: Well, I think what it means is we have right

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Speaker 4: now we're going to be affected very much by an

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Speaker 4: increase in volatility.

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Speaker 3: That's quite natural.

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Speaker 4: We think the way that work to weather it is

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Speaker 4: with prudent diversification that meets the needs objectives and the

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Speaker 4: tolerance to volatility for an investor or an institututions mandate.

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Speaker 4: But it's it's not something that is indigestible. If anything,

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Speaker 4: it's something that has to be digested at this point

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Speaker 4: because we it's the first time we've ever seen an

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Speaker 4: administration not kick the can down the road in terms

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Speaker 4: of the cost of government versus services, actually rendered the

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Speaker 4: tariff regimes in the in the around the world and

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Speaker 4: could actually once people can meet at the table and

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Speaker 4: cooler heads prevail. I think work out pretty well. The

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Speaker 4: initial part, there's a lot of political jostling and everybody

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Speaker 4: is working to get their constituency to say stand up

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Speaker 4: for us and whichever side it is. But once you

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Speaker 4: get over that that that human uh uh a lack

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Speaker 4: of ability to get to the down to brass tacks quickly.

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Speaker 4: Once you get to it, I think we get to

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Speaker 4: a much better situation and a reglobalization which would should

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Speaker 4: be good for both developed and emerging markets.

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Speaker 1: To be clear, I think a lot of people would

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Speaker 1: agree with you, and a lot of people in the

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Speaker 1: business community would agree with you as well, particularly in

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Speaker 1: the United States, who have alluded to exactly what you're

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Speaker 1: talking about. The issue is the near term volatility of

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Speaker 1: headlines and the path to get there some of the

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Speaker 1: negotiation tactics that are making people concerned about how long

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Speaker 1: it might take to actually get to that place. You

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Speaker 1: say that you need to write size expectations for how

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Speaker 1: certain assets will respond to volatility. Does that basically mean

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Speaker 1: that you think that they should lower their expectations for

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Speaker 1: a whole host of different assets.

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Speaker 4: We would say it being realistic, it's like near term

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Speaker 4: lower expectations and understand, for example, the sell off that

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Speaker 4: we'd seen in the financial stocks for example, let alone

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Speaker 4: what we saw in technology, Well, they had a phenomenal

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Speaker 4: run last year. So a good place for a haircut

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Speaker 4: or a trim, or even a correction would be amongst

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Speaker 4: those two sectors and others. So just live with it

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Speaker 4: rather than dump and run, you stay with it.

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Speaker 3: You're diversified. You know what you own, know why you own.

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Speaker 4: It, and have right sized expectations, and like us, you

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Speaker 4: might be pleasantly surprised over the course of a forty

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Speaker 4: year career.

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Speaker 3: Well, when you.

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Speaker 1: Talk about diversification, it's taken on a different meaning over time.

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Speaker 1: There was a question around bonds diversified. There was a

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Speaker 1: question around whether gold was the ultimate diversifier. There was

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Speaker 1: a question with geographies versus sectors. How is your understanding

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Speaker 1: of what it means to be diversified changed in an

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Speaker 1: era where there are some pretty seismic changes going on.

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Speaker 2: From the policy perspective.

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Speaker 4: I would say diversification today the approach should be very

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Speaker 4: much like one that is parallel to the one in

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Speaker 4: fixed income, which is considered duration. Here it would be

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Speaker 4: the duration of the need. In other words, are you longed,

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Speaker 4: are your objectives long?

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Speaker 3: Term for retirement.

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Speaker 4: Are you a retiree who is a relatively young.

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Speaker 3: Retiree, how long.

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Speaker 4: Are you going to need to be exposed to equities

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Speaker 4: to have, based on history, have a greater ability to

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Speaker 4: keep your standard of living. And so we are really

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Speaker 4: at a point now where you know, the old days

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Speaker 4: when the private investor would would appear, they were usually

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Speaker 4: the retail investor. It was cocktail party stocks that they

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Speaker 4: would talk. Now Diday people invest for need because they

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Speaker 4: recognize the fact that things like Social Security will likely

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Speaker 4: not be anywhere near the benefit percentage wise.

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Speaker 3: What it once was for their parents or their grandparents.

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Speaker 3: When we have this.

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Speaker 5: Policy uncertainty though, when we see that bleed into the markets,

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Speaker 5: we see pullbacks. Are you advocating people buy more?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we actually are advocating dollar cost averaging. We don't

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Speaker 4: say buy the dips, but we say buy the babies

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Speaker 4: that get tossed out with the bathwater. The type of

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Speaker 4: volatility that we are seeing now, we have seen parallels

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Speaker 4: to it in the Great Financial Crisis in COVID. Remember

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Speaker 4: when COVID struck. I'll never forget an April of what

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Speaker 4: was it, April of twenty twenty, wasn't it. April twenty twenty,

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Speaker 4: you had some of the smartest people in the world

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Speaker 4: on shows saying it could be decades before they find

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Speaker 4: a cure for this deadly virus. To me, you know,

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Speaker 4: and that we had At that time, Trump was in

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Speaker 4: the White House and he said something to the effect of, well,

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Speaker 4: we could have you know, in.

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Speaker 3: His own inlimit all voice. I'm not going to get.

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Speaker 4: To him a date the present, but he said we

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Speaker 4: could get it. We could get drugs in a warp

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Speaker 4: tie in warp speed, and we did a short period,

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Speaker 4: relatively speaking, we had it.

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Speaker 3: We don't wear a mask today.

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Speaker 2: We had a lot of fair though cross sass there

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Speaker 2: and you saw that in credit to yes, you could

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Speaker 2: make the argument this morning. You don't see that in

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Speaker 2: credit at the moment. I think it was Jonathan Crinsky yesterday.

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Speaker 2: I have btig who said that market bottoms need doubt.

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Speaker 2: Do you think there is sufficient doubt that you can

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Speaker 2: buy this morning?

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Speaker 4: You know, I wouldn't back up the truck, but I

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Speaker 4: don't have any problem with layering in at this point.

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Speaker 2: And where would you layer in because there are a

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Speaker 2: lot of babies to use your words that have been

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Speaker 2: tossed out Tesla Panetin in the video. The list goes

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Speaker 2: on and on. Even Apple was struggling yesterday. Where are

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Speaker 2: those babies?

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Speaker 4: Well, okay, as you know, because I managed ruddy it

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Speaker 4: up and hurry, they don't.

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Speaker 3: I mean, just describe it.

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Speaker 4: I give you please me technol information technology, Communications services,

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Speaker 4: which has which has the search engines, the streamers, and

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Speaker 4: the social media. I would also be looking at a

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Speaker 4: consumer discretionary. The American shopper persists at shopping, even though

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Speaker 4: now a discount private label perhaps, but still shopping. Businesses

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Speaker 4: are still doing what they're doing. And so we would

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Speaker 4: look at financials and the industrials. You know, the industrials

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Speaker 4: are so well positioned to take us into the next

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Speaker 4: chapter of AI. Industrial equipment that needs to be advanced

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Speaker 4: to create all kinds of developments in terms of whether

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Speaker 4: it's the electric grid, whether it's medicine, whether it's just

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Speaker 4: in finance, what it can do to help us get

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Speaker 4: through all the data that gets What.

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Speaker 2: About the travel names, John, given the downgrades we've seen

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Speaker 2: from the airlines early this suite, what about the travel names?

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Speaker 4: You know, I would have to say that's not surprising.

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Speaker 4: Airlines have been remarkably strong for a fairly long.

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Speaker 3: Period of time.

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Speaker 4: Uh. You know, we've never been big fans of airlines,

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Speaker 4: whether we're at the airport or whether we're considering what

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Speaker 4: to buy, only because of the nature of that business

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Speaker 4: and the ability of the traveler to suddenly stop traveling

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Speaker 4: abruptly or keep traveling much longer, the ability to charge

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Speaker 4: ridiculously high fares. Uh, you know, it's still I haven't

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Speaker 4: been to Europe in years. But my point is is

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Speaker 4: what happens is it's we need to see more competition

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Speaker 4: come in, and that's going to hurt earning.

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Speaker 2: What's the old joke, the fastest White's become a millionass

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Speaker 2: start with a billion by a length something like that.

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Speaker 4: There you go, And I think Buffett learned that years

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Speaker 4: ago at one point, think it was it was it

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Speaker 4: US Air. There was some airline that that Buffett took

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Speaker 4: a position and he limped away from it, which he

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Speaker 4: rarely limps away from that.

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Speaker 2: A lot of people have been burnt over the decades,

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Speaker 2: that's for sure. Johny's going to see you as always appreciated,

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Speaker 2: John steffis there of Oppenheimen. Let's turn back to the

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Speaker 2: tride story. Tariffs. They former New York Fed President Bill

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Speaker 2: Dutley saying Trump's tariffs will be worse than market's thing right,

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Speaker 2: saying markets seem to think that if the President once

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Speaker 2: stopped the damage, the FED will. I think they're too complacent.

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Speaker 2: They'll joined us now for more. Bill, welcome to the program, sir,

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Speaker 2: great pace, let's talk about it. Why do you think

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Speaker 2: that's too complacent.

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Speaker 6: I think the problem is that layers are bad for

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Speaker 6: growth and bad for inflation, which puts a FED in

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Speaker 6: a buying Basically, they're missing by more on both sides

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Speaker 6: of their mandate. So I think in the near term

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Speaker 6: the Fed's could basically be on hold waiting for more information.

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Speaker 6: Trump administration making the matter worse because not only are

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Speaker 6: they putting tariffs in place that are much larger than

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Speaker 6: they do during the first term, they're doing it in

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Speaker 6: a very haphazard, irregular way, which is creating a lot

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Speaker 6: of uncertainty. You know, the decline in merger activity in

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Speaker 6: the from months of this year is pretty striking. People

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Speaker 6: expect activity pick up with the Trump administration. It's actually

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Speaker 6: gone down because nobody knows what the rules of the

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Speaker 6: game are going to be in terms of relative prices.

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Speaker 6: For inputs relative prices for exports. So people are very

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Speaker 6: confused and people are just sitting on their hands.

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Speaker 1: Bill, as John was just saying, you wrote this line.

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Speaker 1: Market seem to think that if the President won't stop

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Speaker 1: the damage, the Federal Reserve will with rate cuts. Where

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Speaker 1: do you think they have the political leverage to not

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Speaker 1: cut rates at a time when they are seeing quite

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Speaker 1: a bit of potential destruction to the US economic outlook.

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Speaker 6: Well, it all depends on what happens to inflation, how

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Speaker 6: high does it go, and too does it get into

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Speaker 6: inflation expectations. The inflation expectations are the key issue for

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Speaker 6: the Fed. The second thing they're going to be focusing

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Speaker 6: on how much does the unemployment rate rise. It's not

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Speaker 6: about job creation, it's about the unemployent rate. One thing

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Speaker 6: that people don't really understand, I think well is the

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Speaker 6: fact that we don't need a lot of job creation

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Speaker 6: to keep the unemployment rate here, because the growth rate

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Speaker 6: of the labor force has collapsed with the Trump administration

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Speaker 6: deep tape or deporting workers. The number of people coming

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Speaker 6: over the borders has collapsed. The growth rate of the

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Speaker 6: native border population is really slow. So top speed for

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Speaker 6: the US of commune in terms of keeping unemployer rate

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Speaker 6: where it is probably a fifty thousand in the payroll

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Speaker 6: employment a month, and I think people think that one

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Speaker 6: hundred and fifty two hundred thousand, if it slows to

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Speaker 6: fifty thousand, the Fed's going to cut I think that's wrong.

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Speaker 1: Well, I understand the argument that the FED put isn't

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Speaker 1: exactly there, that the FED is going to come in

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Speaker 1: and cut rates in response to market turmoil. At the

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Speaker 1: same time, there is an argument that some of the

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Speaker 1: terriff related inflationary forces are one time price adjustments that

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Speaker 1: will eventually come down, especially with a weakening economic outlook,

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Speaker 1: and that they can look through that a bit more

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Speaker 1: in place of bigger emphasis on the unemployment rate and

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Speaker 1: other economic indicators. Do you push back against that.

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Speaker 6: Well, again, it depends on whether it gets into inflation expectations.

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Speaker 6: The first term Trump, the tariff increases were relatively modest.

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Speaker 6: It wasn't an inflation issue because inflation was running below

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Speaker 6: the FEDS two percent.

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Speaker 3: Of this time.

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Speaker 6: The teriff increases our orders of magnitude larger, and it's

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Speaker 6: happening at the time that inflation has been running well

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Speaker 6: above the FES two percent. Objective for four years, So

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Speaker 6: inflation expectations are the key, and one troubling indicator in

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Speaker 6: that regard is what the University of Michigan Household Expectations

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Speaker 6: Survey showed last month. For five to ten year forward

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Speaker 6: inflation expectations, it rose to three and a half percent,

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Speaker 6: the highest level since the nineteen nineties. So if that

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Speaker 6: is co corroborated by other inflation expectations indicators, that's going

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Speaker 6: to make it much more difficult.

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Speaker 3: For the Fed.

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Speaker 5: Bill You're talking about the upcoming economic projections we're going

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Speaker 5: to get from the Fed, and you say inflation will

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Speaker 5: be increased, but the path for the unemployment rate won't

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Speaker 5: change much as labor force growth slows along with hiring.

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Speaker 5: Are you basically saying the Fed and their projections are

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Speaker 5: going to almost pinpoint stagflation.

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Speaker 6: Well, I think they have to lower their growth estimates

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Speaker 6: given the uncertainty that the terists are causing and the

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Speaker 6: fact that it makes the real income for lowering households

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Speaker 6: very much squeeze, so they're not going to be able

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Speaker 6: to spend very much. They have to raise inflation because

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Speaker 6: the price level of a lot of these important goods

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Speaker 6: is going to go up pretty significantly, so I think

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Speaker 6: that's sort of in the cards. I think what's going

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Speaker 6: to surprise people is that they're not going to raise

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Speaker 6: their unemployment rate projectory very much. And I think that

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Speaker 6: people maybe be surprised that they're not going to increase

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Speaker 6: the number of rate cuts they have in their forecasts.

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Speaker 6: Last time, they had two rate cuts for twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 6: and I think they'll keep it right there.

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Speaker 2: Bill, let's just talk about those forecasts. What is the

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Speaker 2: approach to putting forecasts together in a moment like this.

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Speaker 2: How much of a conversation happens between individual policymakers actually with.

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Speaker 6: Regard to the summary of economic projections, everyone sort of

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Speaker 6: does their own, so this is not coordinated. You are allowed,

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Speaker 6: towards the end of the Federal over Market Committed meeting

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Speaker 6: to change your forecast based on what you've heard from others,

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Speaker 6: but people rarely do that, So these things are really

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Speaker 6: put into place before the meeting starts and hardly ever changed.

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Speaker 1: A lot of people expect the statement of economic projection

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Speaker 1: not to really move that significantly, and if they do,

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Speaker 1: for it to essentially be irrelevant because they don't know anything.

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Speaker 1: Do you disagree, do you think that it will be

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Speaker 1: indicative of what kinds of scenario analysis individual members are

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Speaker 1: doing and how much they're incorporating policy for their outlook.

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Speaker 6: I think the reason that matters is the fact that

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Speaker 6: I think people are looking for the FED to sort

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Speaker 6: of come to the rescue of the economy by cutting rays.

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Speaker 6: And you've seen it in the decline and your treasure

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Speaker 6: note heels over the last few months. And I think

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Speaker 6: the Fed's doing a signal through the Summary of Economic

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Speaker 6: Projections and in chairman press conference, is that no, we're

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Speaker 6: sitting on our hands for the time being.

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Speaker 2: Bill Tompley with the license great pay sample in black opinion.

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Speaker 2: The Common Secretary had Laton joined us now from Washington,

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Speaker 2: d C. It's the Secretary, welcome back to the program.

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Speaker 2: So always appreciate your time. If we could just take

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Speaker 2: a step back and set the table. What are the

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Speaker 2: stakes for today's mate thing between you and Canadian officials.

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Speaker 7: Well, I think the stakes today, if you take a

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Speaker 7: look at it from the big picture, is the United

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Speaker 7: States said we need to have steel and aluminum domestically

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Speaker 7: in America.

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Speaker 3: In national security.

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Speaker 7: You need medals to make bullets, you need metals to

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Speaker 7: make munitions.

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Speaker 3: You need medals to make everything.

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Speaker 7: And Donald Trump is very focused on let's make sure

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Speaker 7: the key ingredients that are necessary to defend America are

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Speaker 7: made here in America. And these other countries they just

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Speaker 7: don't pay attention. I mean, how many times do I

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Speaker 7: have to say national security is important? And if you

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Speaker 7: do like the EU, and you respond by putting a

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Speaker 7: terrifying Kentucky bourbon which used to piss off Mitch McConnell,

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Speaker 7: which doesn't really matter anymore, you gotta wonder, really, really

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Speaker 7: do I have to deal with this stuff?

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Speaker 2: But alas we do, miss the Secretary, Let's get to

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Speaker 2: Europe in a moment. Let's just stand Canada and that

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Speaker 2: will work our way to the EU if we can.

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Speaker 2: For the Canadians, as you know, they've put tariffs on

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Speaker 2: around twenty one billion dollars of US goods. Well, that

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Speaker 2: changed your approach to today's mating.

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean take a look at that again. Let's

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Speaker 3: take a step back national security.

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Speaker 7: We put a tariff on stealing aluminum to make sure

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Speaker 7: the dumping countries of the world stop and we can

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Speaker 7: build up our stealing aluminum in America.

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Speaker 3: And what does Canada do? They put a.

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Speaker 7: Tariff on sports equipment. I mean, really, this is just

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Speaker 7: its tone death. Listen to the President national security matters,

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Speaker 7: when he calls out things like semiconductors, he calls out pharmaceuticals,

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Speaker 7: he calls out autos. These are things that matter to

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Speaker 7: us as a country. And if you're going to respond

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Speaker 7: to us with sports equipment, you're just not listening to

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Speaker 7: President Trump.

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Speaker 5: Satary Lonak, how much are the conversations today actually about

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Speaker 5: bringing up the negotiations when it comes to USNCA.

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Speaker 7: Well, USMCA, we set aside USMCA. So the United States

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Speaker 7: made a deal with both Mexico and Canada that said

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Speaker 7: if you have enough US content in certain products or

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Speaker 7: it's actually made domestically, they can trade between our countries

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Speaker 7: tax free.

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Speaker 3: That remains intact.

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Speaker 7: What is outside of that is both things that don't

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Speaker 7: have that American content that are imported from other countries.

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Speaker 3: So that has a tarrify on it.

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Speaker 7: And now the President has said, look, there are certain

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Speaker 7: topics I need to have US make in America, and

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Speaker 7: stealing aluminum is key.

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Speaker 3: I mean we all understand that.

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Speaker 7: So why not allow the greatest country in the world

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Speaker 7: who completely feeds Canada Canada exists.

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Speaker 3: Completely feeds off of.

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Speaker 7: The amazing economy of the United States of America. Let

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Speaker 7: us build up our steel and aluminum so that we

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Speaker 7: can protect ourselves. And by the way, we protect Canada.

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Speaker 7: I think Canada's got sixty planes. Oh yeah, they're really

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Speaker 7: going to protect themselves. They're really They're the lowest investor

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Speaker 7: in NATO. They totally rely on us, and yet they

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Speaker 7: think they need to respond to steal in aluminum tariffs.

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Speaker 7: I mean, everybody is so used to picking off America,

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Speaker 7: so used to it that they can't even stop. Donald

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Speaker 7: Trump is here to say, we need to be treated fairly,

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Speaker 7: and we need to be treated fairly.

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Speaker 2: Now do you think this approach, if you articulate this

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Speaker 2: to the Canadians today, will help bring down the temperature?

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Speaker 3: I do.

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Speaker 7: I think once you actually breathe and think steal and aluminum,

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Speaker 7: American needs steal in aluminum.

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Speaker 3: I mean, if you.

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Speaker 7: Respond like the British didn't respond, the Mexicans didn't respond,

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Speaker 7: you have some countries that actually thoughtfully examine how they

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Speaker 7: do business with us, and then you have people like

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Speaker 7: the Canadians who are in a so you have no idea.

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Speaker 7: You think it's about a trade war. This is their

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Speaker 7: way of getting election votes. And the EU, you know,

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Speaker 7: the EU is just so many years treated us so harshly.

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Speaker 3: They just can't stop.

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Speaker 7: Look, their tariffs are way up here and our tariffs

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Speaker 7: are down here.

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Speaker 3: How about relax. Let us balance it.

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Speaker 7: We are your largest most important trading partner. Treat us

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Speaker 7: with respect and let's get a little balance. And Donald

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Speaker 7: Trump is out there saying balance, balance, Balance, April second,

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Speaker 7: he's going to describe his balance. We're going to do

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Speaker 7: it together. We're going to describe our trading policy. We're

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Speaker 7: going to describe our balance. But remember semiconductors we need

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Speaker 7: to have them in America. Pharmaceuticals we need to have

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Speaker 7: in America. Cars we need to have in America. And

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Speaker 7: steal in aluminum come on America. Oh and lumber as well.

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Speaker 3: I want to champagne things for our national security.

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Speaker 2: And the one of champagne. So don't forget the why

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Speaker 2: champagne this?

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Speaker 3: Come on?

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Speaker 7: That's that, you know, if you make him unhappy, he

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Speaker 7: responds unhappy. But come on, let's get back to the

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Speaker 7: core basics here, which is a trading policy that says

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Speaker 7: America has allowed the world to lean on us to

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Speaker 7: take from us, to grow off of us. And now

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Speaker 7: it's time for a little balance. We've got a two

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Speaker 7: trillion dollar budget deficit. We want to bring certain jobs home.

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Speaker 7: Let the President do the right thing for America. He

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Speaker 7: will respond after we're done organizing things to make sure

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Speaker 7: the world grows. But today, just remember he's the president

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Speaker 7: of the United States of America.

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Speaker 3: He's not the president of the world.

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Speaker 7: He's going to take care of American workers, and it is.

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Speaker 2: Time missed the Secretary. I just want to make sure

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Speaker 2: that the audience is in on a little jokes there,

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Speaker 2: because they might have missed the post for the President

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Speaker 2: a couple of minutes ago. So I'm going to share

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Speaker 2: it with them and then come back to you in

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Speaker 2: just a second. So the President of the United States

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Speaker 2: for this out on true social moments ago said. The

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Speaker 2: European Union, one of the most hostile and abusive taxing

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Speaker 2: entire thing authorities in the world form for the sole

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Speaker 2: purpose of taking advantage of the United States, has just

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Speaker 2: put a nasty fifty percent tariff on whiskey. If this

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Speaker 2: tariff is not removed immediately, the United States will shortly

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Speaker 2: place a two hundred percent tariff on all wines, champagnes

441
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 2: and alcoholic products coming out of France and other EU

442
00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:20,199
Speaker 2: represented countries. So, missus Secretary, just to bring you in,

443
00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 2: I imagine you are aware of what the President said

444
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:25,919
Speaker 2: based on our conversation just now. Have you given the

445
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:28,320
Speaker 2: Europeans a warning on this? Have you're given them a

446
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 2: time limit to back away? You're taking the same approach

447
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 2: you did with the Canadians just a few days ago.

448
00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 7: Well, I think the President has made it crystal clear

449
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 7: that he finds this tit for tat really abusive and aggravating. Right,

450
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 7: His objective is steel and aluminum tariffs. Let him build

451
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 7: his steel and aluminum business in America, because that's important.

452
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,000
Speaker 7: And then you know, they say, okay, we're going to

453
00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 7: tax whiskey. And I find all this back and forth

454
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:09,240
Speaker 7: really off the topic. The key topic is rebalancing American trade.

455
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,840
Speaker 7: We're going to spend lots of time together, you know.

456
00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 7: But the President was totally annoyed that the Europeans did this.

457
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:18,200
Speaker 7: And so you go in a year back from someone

458
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 7: who emotionally cares about America. He cares about America and

459
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,920
Speaker 7: he wants to take care of Americans. And why are

460
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:30,840
Speaker 7: Europeans picking on Kentucky Bourbon's Roley Gavidson motorcycle. You're saying

461
00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:34,320
Speaker 7: this is an emotional respects it's disrespectful.

462
00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 5: Are you saying responsive we see, well, we see two

463
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 5: hundred tariffs and wine, champagne and alcoholic products before April second,

464
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:44,440
Speaker 5: when the President says it's the big one and we're

465
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 5: going to get the reciprocal rollout.

466
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 7: Well, the joy of my job is that Donald Trump

467
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 7: makes the decisions right and the people around him.

468
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 3: We talk to him and we advise him.

469
00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:59,199
Speaker 7: April second is when we do reciprocal tariffs and he

470
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:00,879
Speaker 7: just he's called.

471
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:04,120
Speaker 3: Out these products. He wants these countries to respect him.

472
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 7: And all of this showed you is that Europe and

473
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 7: Canada do not respect Donald Trump and do not respect

474
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:15,160
Speaker 7: America's ability to build it steel an aluminum industry, which.

475
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:18,679
Speaker 3: Is vital for national security. Whereas you watched Mexico and

476
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 3: you watch the UK be pragmatic and thoughtful and the way.

477
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 7: We're going to deal with them is going to be better.

478
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 7: So these are just black and white things. Why would

479
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 7: you put against steel and aluminum When you say Harley

480
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 7: Davidson motorcycles and Kentucky Bourbon.

481
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 3: It's just illogical.

482
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 7: I think the President is saying, look, I am going

483
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:45,880
Speaker 7: to respond, always bigger and always stronger. We will talk together,

484
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 7: you know, he wrote that tweet this morning. We will

485
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,920
Speaker 7: talk together. If that's what he wants to do, we

486
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:55,199
Speaker 7: will do that. But the answer is April second, a

487
00:24:55,480 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 7: thoughtful approach to reciprocity and nash security of those products

488
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 7: he's called out. We're going to increase our domestic production

489
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 7: of those and have a reciprocal model, and hopefully when

490
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:12,679
Speaker 7: I talk to the Europeans, they'll realize that they should.

491
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 3: Take these things down.

492
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 7: Cool these things out, let's properly negotiate.

493
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 5: Do you have plans to speak to your European counterparts today?

494
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:27,679
Speaker 5: Of course, like who are you speaking to, say, Ursula

495
00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:30,480
Speaker 5: Underlion or potentially some heads of companies like Bernard or

496
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:32,359
Speaker 5: no who was also at the President's inauguration.

497
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 7: Generally as the Commerce secretary, I speak to the trade ministers.

498
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 3: That's totally how it got.

499
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 5: A lot of companies also, and I know executives have

500
00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:47,120
Speaker 5: been calling you, Sarah, Is that not correct? They're looking

501
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 5: for exemptions. Exemptions carve outs fall squarely in the Commerce Department.

502
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 3: So let's talk about exemptions for a moment.

503
00:25:56,359 --> 00:26:00,679
Speaker 7: Steel and aluminum tariffs went in in twenty eighteen, and

504
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:03,720
Speaker 7: when we came back into power, the Biden administration had

505
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:10,640
Speaker 7: granted four hundred and ninety thousand exemptions imagine four undred

506
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,119
Speaker 7: and ninety thousand exemptions to steal.

507
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 3: An illuminum tariffs.

508
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:17,119
Speaker 7: I mean, I don't know that our department could actually

509
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 7: collate Ford to ninety thousand Christmas cards, let alone four

510
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 7: undred and ninety thousand stealing illuminum tariffs.

511
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 3: I mean, come on, it's ridiculous.

512
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 7: So yesterday what we did is we just got rid

513
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:30,879
Speaker 7: of all the exemptions.

514
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 3: That's all we did.

515
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 7: The stealing illuminum tariffs were already on. We just said, look,

516
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,879
Speaker 7: let's just build back our steal an aluminum industry in

517
00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:40,920
Speaker 7: America to protect America.

518
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:44,640
Speaker 3: It's so logical, it's so important.

519
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 7: And then all we get you get some countries who understand,

520
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:51,360
Speaker 7: in some countries who just go right back to old school,

521
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 7: and you know, the President's going to deal with them

522
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 7: with strength and with power, and he's remembered that they

523
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 7: like to respond with a just go after their wine,

524
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:02,440
Speaker 7: and maybe they'll pay attention and listen.

525
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:05,040
Speaker 3: The fact is April second.

526
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:08,400
Speaker 7: We're going to go April second, we're going to go

527
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 7: with the reciprocity, thoughtful global.

528
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 1: Process, Secretary Lot, It's going to take a while to

529
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 1: actually get those tariffs in place after all of the

530
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:21,400
Speaker 1: appeals process, etc. After April second, and in the meantime,

531
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:24,400
Speaker 1: as all of these discussions around tariffs continue, a lot

532
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:28,680
Speaker 1: of businesses are just halting investments. You're seeing consumer sentiment decline,

533
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:32,199
Speaker 1: You're seeing their spending activity decrease. Can you give them

534
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 1: a sense of when they'll have certainty.

535
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:39,360
Speaker 3: The opposite actually is coming true.

536
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 7: You saw Apple five hundred billion dollars, You saw a

537
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:47,640
Speaker 7: SoftBank two hundred billion dollars, Eli Lilly forty billion dollars.

538
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:48,159
Speaker 3: A meeting a.

539
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,679
Speaker 7: Company today who sent me notes saying they want to

540
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:54,360
Speaker 7: invest sixty five billion in America, the scale by which

541
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 7: American companies are committed to invest in America and global.

542
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 1: Company Secretary, when I'm talking about she let me explain

543
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 1: to you what I'm.

544
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,960
Speaker 7: Taching investments and those are coming well, let me finish,

545
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 7: these are huge investments coming to America.

546
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:09,919
Speaker 3: Over one point seven.

547
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 7: Trillion committed in Donald Trump's first fifty days. Anyone who

548
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 7: thinks people are uncertain doesn't understand what Donald Trump is saying.

549
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 7: He's saying, bring your production to America and you will

550
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:27,600
Speaker 7: avoid all the tariffs. Come build in the greatest economy

551
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 7: in the world, and you will avoid tariffs.

552
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:31,919
Speaker 1: That's maybe long term, but what we're seeing in the

553
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 1: short term is that small business confidence has fall into a.

554
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 3: Four month low.

555
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 1: They say, a high degree of uncertainty about what the

556
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 1: regime is going to look like. They talk about likelihood increasing,

557
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 1: likelihood of having to increase prices in response to the tariffs.

558
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:48,400
Speaker 1: You're seeing this with respect to airplane tickets that are

559
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 1: falling off a cliff as of February. I'm just wondering,

560
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 1: when you take a look at these types of indicators,

561
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 1: at what point does it become concerning to you.

562
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:04,960
Speaker 7: The greatest dealmaker who's ever lived is sitting behind the desk.

563
00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 3: In the Oval Office.

564
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 7: He understands that the best way to get our farmers,

565
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 7: our ranchers, and our fishermen's produce and products in the

566
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 7: rest of the world, which they block it. I mean

567
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 7: India blocks our farmers. All these countries block our farmers.

568
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 7: The way to grow it is to make deals with

569
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 7: them where they have to understand the power of the

570
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 7: US economy is that you need to take our products.

571
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 7: We want to unleash American ingenuity and the capacity to

572
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 7: export and when other countries put giant, giant.

573
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 3: Tariffs on our products.

574
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 7: Let's be clear. You can't go to Europe and see

575
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 7: an American car. You can't go to Korea and see

576
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 7: an American car. You can't go to Japan and see

577
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:57,040
Speaker 7: an American car. But you sure see their cars here.

578
00:29:57,320 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 7: So the concept of Donald Trump saying, hang on a minute,

579
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 7: you have got to be kidding. We need to unleash

580
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 7: the American economy.

581
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 3: And if we've got.

582
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 7: To teach the rest of the world to treat us

583
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 7: with respect, that they have beaten on us, and they.

584
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 3: Have abused us, and their.

585
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 7: Tariffs are so so high that they've got to actually

586
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 7: treat us with respect. Bring down their tariffs so that

587
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 7: it's reciprocal.

588
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 3: Remember, they will never.

589
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 7: Live with us having the tariffs as high as they

590
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 7: have them. So what they're going to do is they're

591
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 7: going to bring them down. Let Donald Trump run this economy.

592
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:40,000
Speaker 7: He knows what he's doing better than any president who's

593
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 7: ever sat at that desk.

594
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:42,720
Speaker 3: Let him do his job.

595
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 7: There's going to be a lot of talking, but in

596
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 7: the end, there's going to be the greatest growth economy

597
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 7: America's ever seen. We are going to export and people

598
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 7: are going to build in America. Those two things are

599
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 7: going to happen, and they're going to happen because Donald

600
00:30:58,840 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 7: Trump's going.

601
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 3: To create fair trade.

602
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:05,960
Speaker 7: Start saying the word fair trade, because right now trade

603
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 7: in America.

604
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 3: Go look at the numbers.

605
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 7: Un fair, Europe huge, India huge, right, China the highest.

606
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 3: There's no inflation in these countries.

607
00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 7: What there is is blocking Americans from doing business there.

608
00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 3: And Donald Trump is going to break down those walls.

609
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 2: Let's talk about China. So we heard from a Foreign

610
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 2: Ministry official in China who said this that Beijing has

611
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 2: done the United States a favor and Washington should have

612
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 2: said a big thank you for all they've done to

613
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 2: control drugs. And I imagine they're alluding to Fensanel directly,

614
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 2: mister Secretary. I just wonder if the President has seen

615
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 2: those comments in the last twenty four hours and what

616
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 2: its response is to them.

617
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 7: The President, as we have said on April twod, is

618
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 7: going to take a holistic approach to everything. March has

619
00:31:56,600 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 7: been the month to reduce the right the board and

620
00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 7: fentanyl deaths in America, and I hope to god China's

621
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 7: reducing the production of the fentanyl ingredients that kill seventy

622
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:15,600
Speaker 7: five thousand or top seed Americans, and as the President

623
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 7: rightly knows, that number is way way more. We need them.

624
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 7: We need China to stop making the ingredients, and we

625
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 7: need Mexico and Canada to stop shipping them into our country.

626
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 7: That is March. March is very very focused on that.

627
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 7: Hopefully they'll get down and we'll have a good, a

628
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:36,360
Speaker 7: good reduced border. Obviously that's so far, so good, but

629
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:39,440
Speaker 7: we need to reduce those fentanyl deaths. And then come April,

630
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:42,480
Speaker 7: you're going to see us start to focus on.

631
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:46,959
Speaker 3: Lowering tariff away and increasing.

632
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:48,840
Speaker 7: Tariffs at home, so at least we get a little

633
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 7: ballance if they want to lower them. Reciprocal tariffs mean

634
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 7: take them down and we'll take we'll keep ours.

635
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 2: Den any implication that we do so it ramping up

636
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 2: tariffs over the line months on China, Have they given

637
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 2: any indication they're prepared to do that? Just to stress

638
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 2: test this theory, because taras's been ramping up China over

639
00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:10,400
Speaker 2: the last ten years now, any indication they're willing to

640
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 2: actually step back and do what you're asking them to do.

641
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 7: You know, China is always a separate thinking. You know,

642
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:22,440
Speaker 7: the Chinese Communist Party thinks about things in a much,

643
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 7: much different way than everybody else. And I don't know

644
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 7: how they're going to deal with bringing these things down.

645
00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 3: I would like them to bring it down.

646
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 7: They have a huge market, but remember we consume more

647
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 7: than two times what they consume. They have a big economy,

648
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:42,080
Speaker 7: but they're a production economy.

649
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 3: They sell to us. They need to sell to us.

650
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 7: We are the greatest consuming economy in the world. We

651
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 7: are the customer that everybody in the world needs. Now,

652
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 7: they put huge tariffs in China because they're trying to

653
00:33:56,320 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 7: build up their consumer production domestically, and that's where they stand.

654
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 7: So you don't hear all of you talking about how

655
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 7: horrible China is and all the inflation in China and

656
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 7: all this sort of stuff.

657
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 3: It's just not true. The fact is America is going.

658
00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:17,480
Speaker 7: To build up its industries here, drive down tariffs there.

659
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 7: I don't know what China will do, but my expectation

660
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:23,760
Speaker 7: is the whole world who trades with us will bring

661
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 7: down their tariffs and allow our farmers, ranchers and seamen,

662
00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:32,799
Speaker 7: allow our production, allow our car manufacturers to export more

663
00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 7: and grow. We are looking for fair trade. Secretary Trade,

664
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 7: Let's say it over and over again.

665
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 3: We got it.

666
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:44,399
Speaker 5: I think it could maybe be a bumper sticker for you.

667
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:49,760
Speaker 5: There are reports this week that potentially underway our plans

668
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:52,280
Speaker 5: for Shijing ping to meet with Donald Trump.

669
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 3: Are we expecting a.

670
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:56,640
Speaker 5: Meeting between these two leaders either in the spring or

671
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 5: early summer.

672
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:05,279
Speaker 7: I mean, look, the President runs his agenda, but from

673
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:09,239
Speaker 7: my perspective, when strong leaders meet each other, that is

674
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 7: useful and effective for the world. But Donald Trump will

675
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 7: make those decisions himself. I am focused on reciprocal tariffs.

676
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 7: On April second, I am not in the agenda of

677
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:22,240
Speaker 7: who President Trump decides he wants.

678
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,719
Speaker 1: To meet Secretary Lutnak or just two minutes away from

679
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:28,040
Speaker 1: the latest indicator from the United States, which is PPI

680
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:31,560
Speaker 1: data and inflation read and initial jobless claims. You've talked

681
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 1: about how the data that we are getting right now

682
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:37,480
Speaker 1: is Biden data. At what point does it become Trump data.

683
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 7: I'd say we fully wear the fourth quarter, and we

684
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:45,239
Speaker 7: may well wear much of.

685
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,720
Speaker 3: The third quarter. But for fourth quarter, for sure.

686
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 7: You know, the American economy, right, a twenty nine trillion

687
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 7: dollar economy. You can't take office on Monday and have

688
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:58,360
Speaker 7: the news media say, oh, look what you did on Tuesday.

689
00:35:58,560 --> 00:35:59,880
Speaker 3: I mean, come on, that's so silly.

690
00:35:59,880 --> 00:36:02,840
Speaker 7: So the real way the world works is for sure,

691
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 7: the fourth quarter is Donald Trump's quarter, and the third

692
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 7: quarter it starts his policies start to really embed in America.

693
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:12,799
Speaker 7: So that's the right way to look at it. First

694
00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:17,399
Speaker 7: and second quarter are Biden's sort of left behind difficulty,

695
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 7: and then you see Donald Trump dig us out, build

696
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 7: us up, and buy.

697
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 3: The fourth quarter, you're going to.

698
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:25,800
Speaker 7: See growth rates because we got all these companies committing

699
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 7: to build in America, get their shovels in the ground,

700
00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:31,400
Speaker 7: because we get regulations out of the way, start to

701
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 7: produce those jobs, start to bring back trade craft. You know,

702
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 7: electricians who build giant factories, HVAC specialists who cool those,

703
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 7: and then mechanics who fix robots.

704
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:48,399
Speaker 3: You've got trade craft coming back to America. It's going

705
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 3: to be amazing.

706
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:51,720
Speaker 7: We're going to have the greatest training program ever because

707
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:56,800
Speaker 7: we need to train our great workers for the AI

708
00:36:56,960 --> 00:37:00,479
Speaker 7: revolution and the tech revolution that is coming that Donald

709
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:04,560
Speaker 7: Trump is bringing to construction and development in America, and

710
00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 7: we need to train our people and they're going to

711
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:07,440
Speaker 7: have great.

712
00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:11,720
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best

713
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:15,040
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714
00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:18,040
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715
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716
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717
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