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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, I'm Matthew Friedman Matt few Workell. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: the Betting Pros podcast, brought to you by bet MGM,

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Speaker 1: where you can get a risk free bet of up

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Speaker 1: to one thousand dollars when you use the promo code

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Speaker 1: at Betting Pros with your first deposit. Here with me

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Speaker 1: to talk to NFL week ten market movement and power

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Speaker 1: ratings is Fabian Sohmer and NFL better and content creator

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Speaker 1: for the Hammer Network. Fabian, thanks for joining the show.

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Speaker 1: Great to have you.

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Speaker 2: How's it going, Matt, thank you very much for having

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Speaker 2: me on Ken. Wait to talk some football with you.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So, first, before we get into football, you know,

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Speaker 1: big picture people might have intuited from your accent. You

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Speaker 1: are German, not see the most natural thing to pick up,

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Speaker 1: you know NFL if you are in Germany. But although

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Speaker 1: there is an NFL game in Germany this weekend and

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Speaker 1: we'll talk about that, but can you talk a little

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Speaker 1: bit about how you got into NFL.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So, during the two.

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Speaker 2: Thousands, there was a sitcom in Germany, col King of Queens.

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Speaker 2: I think you might know it. It's with Dark Heafnon

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Speaker 2: and so on, and that was very big time over

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Speaker 2: here and I watched like every episode of that and sports.

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Speaker 2: American sports was always a big thing for dark Heafnan,

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Speaker 2: and he was always watching the Jets, so he was

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Speaker 2: always watching football. And at some point I thought, hey,

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Speaker 2: how about watching some football on Sunday.

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Speaker 3: That might be a very fun sport.

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Speaker 2: So I think in two thousand and eight or two

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Speaker 2: thousand and nine, and someday I started watching some live

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Speaker 2: streams of football and immediately I got completely hooked with

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Speaker 2: the sports in Germany raising.

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Speaker 3: Getting up.

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Speaker 2: You are automatically a big soccer guy by nature, and

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Speaker 2: right now I've reached the point a long time ago

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Speaker 2: that I prefer to watch football a lot more than

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Speaker 2: I preferred to watch soccer. So yeah, that's basically how

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Speaker 2: I got into football started. I think two thousand and nine,

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Speaker 2: I think it was the first season for the Jets

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Speaker 2: with Rex Wyane as that head coach, where they made

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Speaker 2: the playoffs, and I never stopped watching after that.

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Speaker 1: Is the Jets your team? Like? Is that?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: J That's that's amazing. I mean, what a what a

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Speaker 1: franchise to pick at someone you know, not even not

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Speaker 1: even attached to the city of New York. That's an

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Speaker 1: amazing franchise to pick.

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Speaker 3: It worked out very well for the first two years.

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Speaker 1: Right, yeah, and then after that not so well. But

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Speaker 1: this year now it's it's you know, working out again,

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Speaker 1: so it's a it's all coming full circle.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely.

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Speaker 2: It could be the first playoff birth since I think

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Speaker 2: twenty eleven.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, crazy stuff.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So your approach to betting an analysis, I'm wondering

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Speaker 1: if you can talk about it a little bit. I've

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Speaker 1: heard you on on other podcast talk about it. You know,

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Speaker 1: there are people who have more of a quantitative approach,

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Speaker 1: people who have more of a kind of matchups focused approach,

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Speaker 1: and I think you have something of a blend of

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Speaker 1: those two. But can you talk a little bit about

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Speaker 1: how it is that you break down football?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly.

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Speaker 2: So, first of all, that mind sot a little bit lazy,

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Speaker 2: but I want to gather as much information as possible.

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Speaker 2: But I come more from the subjective side of things.

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Speaker 2: So some people are entirely let's say, let's say model focused.

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Speaker 2: They run some numbers, look what their numbers, spit out,

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Speaker 2: find some edges, and go on embedded. I've also used

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Speaker 2: models in the past. I've built models, I've used power ratings,

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Speaker 2: and stuff like that. But everything was just a tool

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Speaker 2: for me to get some kind of a baseline to

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Speaker 2: my weekly handicapping process. But everything really starts for me

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Speaker 2: with a qualitative approach, subjective approach, so to speak. So

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Speaker 2: I care primarily about the matchup on the field, and

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Speaker 2: that starts on Monday morning for me when I go

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Speaker 2: through all the matchups, make some notes for certain angles,

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Speaker 2: matchup advantages, disadvantages, then injury projections following injury report reports

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Speaker 2: throughout the.

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Speaker 3: League, and then on Monday morning, I will.

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Speaker 4: Get to a let's say, an initial spread for a

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Speaker 4: certain game, and that spread gets adjusted throughout the week

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Speaker 4: based on data analysis, injury news.

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Speaker 2: To speak, or whatever, like any single information bit that

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Speaker 2: I find useful could have an impact on my process

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Speaker 2: about how I approach a certain game, and then throughout

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Speaker 2: the week is basically like a let's say numbers involvement,

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Speaker 2: I could change my numbers quite a bit throughout the week,

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Speaker 2: like when there's injury news that were unprecedented, or I

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Speaker 2: found some data about some stuff that I've been missing

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Speaker 2: on Monday, and yeah, throughout the week, it's basically then

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Speaker 2: always updating my numbers, getting the best information as possible

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Speaker 2: looking at every piece of information, like every injury news

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Speaker 2: or whatever. And that's also very important to time your

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Speaker 2: market entry. So sometimes on a Tuesday evening, you might

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Speaker 2: want to bet a certain side or a certain total,

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Speaker 2: but there might be some injury news that you won't

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Speaker 2: get before Thursday or Friday. You could have the anticipation

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Speaker 2: that certain betting groups might bet a certain side or

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Speaker 2: total earlier the week, so you might want to wait

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Speaker 2: for that market move to happen. And that's basically a

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Speaker 2: grind throughout the week to balance the information status and

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Speaker 2: the market entry.

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Speaker 1: Mm hmm. So it seems that you, uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: based on what you said and based on you know

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Speaker 1: what I've I've heard you say in you know, other

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Speaker 1: podcasts that you have. As you said, you sort of

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Speaker 1: start with more of the matchup looking at that and

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Speaker 1: you know, with your knowledge, uh, you build numbers on

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Speaker 1: top of it and around it to kind of supplement.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting, like and you've you've had success with that.

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Speaker 1: I have had more success in the kind of opposite direction.

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Speaker 1: So before this year, I was much more focused on, Okay,

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Speaker 1: this matchup versus that matchup. You know, this team is

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Speaker 1: number one in this offensive metric, This defense is number

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Speaker 1: thirty two in this defensive metric. You know, I think

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Speaker 1: three points is too much for the spread, uh, and

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Speaker 1: kind of approaching it that way and doing that, I was,

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Speaker 1: you know about break even. This year, I kind of

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Speaker 1: forced myself to have more of a kind of like

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Speaker 1: a blended approach where I would start with the number

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Speaker 1: like so I I've you know, each week I go

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Speaker 1: through the process of updating power ratings. I didn't have

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Speaker 1: power ratings before this year. I created them in the

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Speaker 1: off season, maintained them, built a model around that to

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Speaker 1: try to adjust for home field advantage, for travel, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, different different factors like that. And I've had

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Speaker 1: much more success starting this year with that that quantitative

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Speaker 1: approach and then starting to build in the context around

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Speaker 1: it of particular matchups. I'm curious, you know what you're

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Speaker 1: what you're thinking is on the two different types of approaches.

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Speaker 2: To be completely honest, I think if you asked unsuccessful

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Speaker 2: betters in any given sport, you will probably get ten

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Speaker 2: different answers as to how the approach handicapping. And I

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Speaker 2: think I always say many ways lead to rome. There

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Speaker 2: is not one single approach that is useful for everyone

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Speaker 2: or that beats the market long term. I think that

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Speaker 2: it's just important that you always challenge the status quo,

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Speaker 2: that you always look at where could be weaknesses in

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Speaker 2: my process, where could be some flaws, what I've been

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Speaker 2: missing in the past. It's always important to measure your

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Speaker 2: performance against the market in terms of let's say, closing

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Speaker 2: line value, which is also time dependent, dependent on the

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Speaker 2: days when you place your bets. But I don't think

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Speaker 2: that there is the right or wrong way people can

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Speaker 2: have success going creanditative first. People can have success going

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Speaker 2: qualitative first. There's just not one single reason that leads

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Speaker 2: to success. It's just important to always change yourself, try

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Speaker 2: to gain more knowledge, and just don't have the over

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Speaker 2: confidence in your process.

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Speaker 1: All right. You put out an article each week at

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Speaker 1: the Hammer Network kind of looking at big picture themes

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Speaker 1: and developments for the season, and for the previous week.

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Speaker 1: In your Week nine takeaways piece, you noted the depressed

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Speaker 1: scoring environment for twenty twenty two NFL. Now we're in

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Speaker 1: week ten, so we have nine full weeks of information

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Speaker 1: at this point. In no week so far has the

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Speaker 1: overhit in more games than the under. I mean, that's

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Speaker 1: just you know, it's not mind boggling, but it's not

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Speaker 1: statistically probable. And you know for the year the under

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Speaker 1: is eighty one and fifty five. What is your read

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Speaker 1: on why we are seeing what we're seeing and what

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Speaker 1: that might mean moving forward.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so I think that we have seen a league

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Speaker 2: wide shift in the sense that offenses are having a

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Speaker 2: much tougher time dictating.

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Speaker 3: The game to the opposing defense.

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Speaker 2: So for years we have seen some juggernaut offenses like

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs, the Shanahan offenses, the McVay offenses said, we're

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Speaker 2: always being consistently good. We have seen defenses playing lots

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Speaker 2: of single high cover three in the past where we

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Speaker 2: had where we had the let's say, evolving Seattle Seahawks

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Speaker 2: defense from the early twenty tens, then at some point

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Speaker 2: everyone wanted to copy the sea Hawks defense was playing

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Speaker 2: cover three. Guys like guys like Gus Bradley were like

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Speaker 2: playing strictly cover three every single week for let's say

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Speaker 2: seventy eighty percent of their snaps, and at some points

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Speaker 2: at some point it was very easy, or let's say,

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Speaker 2: it became more easy for offensive coordinators to beat that

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Speaker 2: stuff and to make life very easy.

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Speaker 3: For his quarterback, et cetera.

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Speaker 2: And at some point there was a shift like defenses

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Speaker 2: didn't want to get beat deep anymore, and DC started

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Speaker 2: to call a lot more, a lot more let's say,

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Speaker 2: too high stuff, cover two, cover four, cover six, some

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Speaker 2: generations of that. The the fingial tree was starting to

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Speaker 2: play with light boxes, basically saying, hey, you can one

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Speaker 2: on us, but you.

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Speaker 3: Cannot beat us deep.

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Speaker 2: And defenses were really starting to pick up on that.

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Speaker 2: And since last year we have really seen a shift

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Speaker 2: in terms of coverage rates of a cover two, cover four,

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Speaker 2: cover six, et cetera. And defenses are also finding ways

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Speaker 2: to disrupt opposing offensive line, so we are seeing lots

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Speaker 2: more simulated pressure stunts at the line of scrimmage, really

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Speaker 2: trying to cloud the picture of the opposing quarterback. I

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Speaker 2: think offensive line play when you look, for example, at

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Speaker 2: BFF grades, offensive line plays also down this year, So

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Speaker 2: when you put everything together, it's not that easy anymore

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Speaker 2: for an offense to dictate the game to the opposing defense. Defenses,

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Speaker 2: like let's say the Denver Broncos, who have an excellent

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Speaker 2: pass defense this year, they are really messing around with

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Speaker 2: opposing protections. They're playing sound and discipline, coverage on the

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Speaker 2: back end. They're really making it hard on opposing quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: And it's just a fact that offensive play is down

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Speaker 2: League White.

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Speaker 3: We're talking about.

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Speaker 2: A I think a decrease of about five six points

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Speaker 2: in terms of total score per game and about aero

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Speaker 2: point zero four epa per play. So yeah, it's it's

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Speaker 2: really I would not call it the the year of

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Speaker 2: the defense, but defenses have clearly found a way to

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Speaker 2: strike back and then say, hey, offenses, you have to

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Speaker 2: be doing a much better job to be us.

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Speaker 1: Now, yeah, I mean, I think your point is right.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't feel exactly like the Year of the defense.

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Speaker 1: It feels a little bit like the year of the

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Speaker 1: underwhelming offense. Uh. And it's yeah, you know, we just

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Speaker 1: have to see what adjustments offenses make and then how

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Speaker 1: defenses counter adjust. In your piece, you also have a

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Speaker 1: section on Josh McDaniels and you're saying the Josh McDaniels

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Speaker 1: era might already be over in Las Vegas. And by

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Speaker 1: the way, speaking of the Raiders, we're giving away a

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Speaker 1: free sign Josh Jacobs Raiders jersey from Pristine Auction. If

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Speaker 1: you want a chance to win it, subscribe to the

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros YouTube channel right now and comment below on

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Speaker 1: the video. We will announce a winner on the channel

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Speaker 1: in a future episode, So turn on those notifications. So

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Speaker 1: the Josh McDaniels era in Las Vegas, it might already

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Speaker 1: be over. What do you think is going on? Like

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Speaker 1: this team they get out to big leads, which that's

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Speaker 1: a good thing, and then they just give those leads away.

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Speaker 1: And I will say in the preseason betting the under

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Speaker 1: on the eight and a half win total for the

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Speaker 1: Raiders was one of the biggest bets that I made.

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Speaker 1: I just looked at that and it felt I don't know,

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Speaker 1: you could just look at you could look at a

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Speaker 1: number of things and say, I can see how this

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Speaker 1: doesn't work out, and it hasn't worked out. At the

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Speaker 1: same time, I don't look at this team and think

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Speaker 1: that any one thing is like, oh, this is why

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Speaker 1: they're a bad team, except maybe that Josh McDaniels is

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Speaker 1: the head coach. What do you make of this team?

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Speaker 2: First of all, I did not expect them to lead

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Speaker 2: the AFC West after nine weeks, but I expected them

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Speaker 2: to be, let's say, more competent on offense, like their defense.

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Speaker 2: Right now, I think they ranked twenty sixth or twenty

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Speaker 2: seventh in EPA play there, I think a second to

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Speaker 2: last against the pass. So that's something that Josh McDaniel's

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Speaker 2: doesn't really cowl for a lot. But you can certainly

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Speaker 2: point towards the offense not playing up to the level

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Speaker 2: that they were supposed to be. So, I mean, Derek

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Speaker 2: Carr has been a very decent quarterback for the past

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Speaker 2: two to three years. Devonte Adams has been arguably the

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Speaker 2: best wide receiver last year, Hunter Renfrow had an absolute

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Speaker 2: stut breakout season. Mc hollins is making place down the field.

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Speaker 2: I think he's up there among the top ten wide

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Speaker 2: receivers in terms of EPA per target. And then you

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Speaker 2: also had Darren Waller for a few games. Josh Jacobs

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Speaker 2: is having a fantastic season. So there's really no reason

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Speaker 2: why this offense should not be a let's say, top twelve,

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Speaker 2: top Tennish offense. And that's really mind bowling, and I

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Speaker 2: don't really have a reasonable expect an explanation for that.

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Speaker 2: I mean, against these Saints, you could see that the

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Speaker 2: Wante Adams was clearly sick. I think he had the flu.

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Speaker 2: He was running routes at fifty percent. Okay, that was

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Speaker 2: a dud game, But I don't get how you can

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Speaker 2: be very good in one half against a below average

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Speaker 2: Jaguars defense. Everything is clicking, You are finding ways to

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Speaker 2: get the Wonted Adams the ball, and then after the

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Speaker 2: half he has zero yards.

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Speaker 3: Mike McDaniels has some.

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Speaker 2: Really really ill advised decisions in terms of play calling

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Speaker 2: and when to call it one, when to call a pass.

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Speaker 2: Derek Carr, you cann't expect him to make every throw

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Speaker 2: in the world, but I really have the feeling that

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Speaker 2: this coaching staff fails its offense to reach its ceiling

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Speaker 2: and to be smart enough when it comes to closing

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Speaker 2: out games.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, I absolutely agree with that. You know, looking

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Speaker 1: at what happened last week and thinking about the changes

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Speaker 1: that I've made Empower ratings for this week. Teams that

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Speaker 1: I've bumped up significantly since last week, the Bears, the Seahawks,

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Speaker 1: and the Titans, uh, And you know, for all of

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Speaker 1: these teams, I think there are you know, very concrete

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Speaker 1: things that you can point to. Justin Fields is massively

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Speaker 1: exceeding the expectations that I had for him based on

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Speaker 1: what we saw in weeks one. Through three Since then,

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Speaker 1: incredible outperformance. And so you know, based on what we've

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Speaker 1: seen adjusting up the Bears as he goes, their offense goes,

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Speaker 1: and their offense has really gotten better. Seattle, I've adjusted

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Speaker 1: them up pre significantly since last week, in part because

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Speaker 1: I was so slow early in the year to adjust

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Speaker 1: them up. I probably held on to my prime with

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Speaker 1: Seattle longer than I should have if they weren't the

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Speaker 1: bottom ranked team for me entering the year, they were

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Speaker 1: certainly bottom three.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 1: And then Tennessee, Man, I mean their defense, their defense,

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Speaker 1: and it's not even so much their defense, just the

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Speaker 1: coaching staff. This is a coaching staff. It's that's sort

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Speaker 1: of like the opposite of what we see with the

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Speaker 1: Raiders in Josh mcdaniald's This coaching staff always seems to

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Speaker 1: get the most out of its players, even if in

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Speaker 1: terms of EPA or success rate or you know, any

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Speaker 1: of the on field metrics you would look at, it

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Speaker 1: doesn't seem like this is all that great of a team,

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Speaker 1: but they always play well. Uh. Those are the teams

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Speaker 1: since last week that I've moved up the most in

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Speaker 1: my power ratings. I believe you have also moved the

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Speaker 1: Bears up quite a bit in how you are evaluating

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Speaker 1: them from last week. What are your thoughts on what

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Speaker 1: we're seeing out of Justin fields incredible development.

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Speaker 2: So first of all, they have adjusted their let's say,

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Speaker 2: offensive scheme to the point that they are just letting

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Speaker 2: him run. They are designing runs for him, and they're

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Speaker 2: basically saying, hey, Justin, when there's pressure, just just go,

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Speaker 2: just go and be the best athlete on the field.

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Speaker 2: That's something that Matt Naggy didn't want him, didn't want

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Speaker 2: him to be last year, which in hindsight is really

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Speaker 2: crazy to think about. And I think over the past

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Speaker 2: three weeks, not only has the scheme changed and we

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Speaker 2: see more more designed ones, he also seems to be

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Speaker 2: more decisive and just lets it rip. So the biggest

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Speaker 2: critic early in the season was that he's taking sack

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Speaker 2: after sack after and now he's just not holding onto

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Speaker 2: the ball to long. He just goes or he lets

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Speaker 2: it rip. And I think this is an incredible development

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Speaker 2: because converting a sag to an incompletion is good to

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Speaker 2: begin with, but converting converting a seg to a scramble

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Speaker 2: for twelve yards is even much better, and.

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Speaker 3: Scrambling really really is key.

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Speaker 2: And scrambling is also a key when we go back

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Speaker 2: to the to the to this season scoring environment, because

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Speaker 2: defenses are really taking away the deep ball, are messing

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Speaker 2: around at the line of scrimmage, and there are opportunities

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Speaker 2: for quarterbacks to turn scrambles into even more valuable propositions.

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Speaker 2: And if you let an athlete like Justin Field scramble,

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Speaker 2: good things will happen.

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Speaker 1: All right, Yeah, I mean as you say. The development,

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Speaker 1: especially what we've seen in the past month, has been fantastic.

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Speaker 1: The week after the Super Bowl, I was in Las

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Speaker 1: Vegas for a conference and I placed three MVP bets

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Speaker 1: at that time total degenerate move whatever. One of them

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Speaker 1: was eighty to one Trey Lance That is obviously dead.

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Speaker 1: One of them was one hundred and to one to

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Speaker 1: a tug of Iiloa. That's probably not gonna work, but

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Speaker 1: I don't hate the value that I have on it now.

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Speaker 1: And then the third one was one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: to one Justin Fields. Obviously that's not cashing, but I'm

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Speaker 1: thrilled with the development. Like the thesis of placing that

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Speaker 1: bet is what we've started to see in Justin Fields.

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Speaker 1: For the past three weeks. So it's exciting to imagine

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Speaker 1: what he could become if they are able to build

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Speaker 1: around him next year in the year after that, you know,

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Speaker 1: like maybe he actually could be an MVP candidate next

358
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Speaker 1: year if he continues on this trajectory and they're able

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Speaker 1: to build around him. Now, on the flip side of this,

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Speaker 1: and I gotta say, like Luke Getzi, it seems like

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Speaker 1: he's done a pretty good job of changing the way

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Speaker 1: that he's approaching the talent that he has. And you know,

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Speaker 1: kind of on the flip side, you know, Luke Getzy

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Speaker 1: left the Packers. Obviously, they had other coaches leave the

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Speaker 1: coaching staff, and we've seen that offense really for the

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Speaker 1: Packers has not been good. Uh, it's just it's massively underwhelmed.

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Speaker 1: And so I continue each week to move the Packers

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Speaker 1: down in my rankings.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 1: And of course other teams that I significantly moved down

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Speaker 1: this past week, the Colts and the Panthers. With the Colts,

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Speaker 1: it's just like, and this this move was even before

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Speaker 1: the termination of Frank Reich in the hiring of Jeff Saturday,

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Speaker 1: and it's like, now I want to bump them down

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Speaker 1: even more. Uh. And with the Panthers, you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure what we're going to see at quarterback this week.

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Speaker 1: If it's PJ. Walker, if it's Baker Mayfield, I'm kind

378
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Speaker 1: of it's under the You think it's Walker interesting, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so you know we have to wait and see there.

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Speaker 1: But you know, I've moved them down in part because

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Speaker 1: Walker doesn't seem to be the prince that was promised.

382
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Speaker 1: And then also, you know, the couple of weeks before that,

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Speaker 1: it felt like a team that was playing hard, like

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Speaker 1: they were competing, and I just did not get that

385
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Speaker 1: sense of last week. It looked like a team that

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Speaker 1: was dead, and so significantly adjusted them down. But who

387
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Speaker 1: are the teams that you are looking at and you've

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Speaker 1: reevaluated downwards.

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Speaker 2: So, first of all, the calls, because I think in

390
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Speaker 2: the history of WA that performance against the Patriots was

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Speaker 2: up there for the worst performance by history. I think

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Speaker 2: I've read something about that on their Twitter timeline. I

393
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Speaker 2: mean Parker, sorry, Parker Sam Illinger. Beyond a bad offensive

394
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Speaker 2: line with wide receivers who cannot get separation and a

395
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Speaker 2: thirty year old play caller who has never called plays

396
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Speaker 2: in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: I mean.

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Speaker 2: You have to downgrade the I mean they were I

399
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Speaker 2: think they closed as five and a half points underdog

400
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Speaker 2: point underdogs at New England last week, and I mean

401
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:16,160
Speaker 2: they got completely destroyed. There was there is not a

402
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:18,639
Speaker 2: single bit of hope when it comes to this offense

403
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:21,639
Speaker 2: in my opinion after watching their performance against the Patriots.

404
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:26,160
Speaker 2: Like for the Bears, we could always say, hey, justin

405
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 2: Field says all the talent in the world, maybe use

406
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:32,399
Speaker 2: somewhat designed ones and just they adjust the scheme a

407
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Speaker 2: little bit, maybe grab another wide with you or something.

408
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 2: But with the codes right now, I could not tell you,

409
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:44,440
Speaker 2: Matt any logical solution to the problem, like how could

410
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Speaker 2: they really improve their offense going forward?

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Speaker 3: I have no signal solution to.

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Speaker 1: This, Yeah, I mean I don't. I don't think there

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Speaker 1: is one. And with the with the Packers, you know

414
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Speaker 1: they I mean they suffered a few of injuries. I

415
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 1: mean it was if it weren't so sad, it would

416
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Speaker 1: be humorous how many guys got injured for the Packers

417
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Speaker 1: in that game. And you know, obviously ra Shaan Gary

418
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Speaker 1: out for the year with the the ACL injury, and

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Speaker 1: so that's a significant downgrade there for the defense, What

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Speaker 1: are you see with the Packers. I mean I think

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Speaker 1: it's this could have ripples beyond just this year. I

422
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Speaker 1: mean it could get so bad to where like Aaron

423
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Speaker 1: Rodgers is gone after this year.

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Speaker 2: Seriously, I would not rule out the possibility that he

425
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:41,399
Speaker 2: gets benched for John Love at some point, because there's

426
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Speaker 2: a d scenario that Aaron Rodgers will not play another

427
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:48,359
Speaker 2: down for the Packers beyond the season and then without

428
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Speaker 2: any playoff hopes. There's no single point in not giving

429
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Speaker 2: John Love more significant reps because he was chosen by

430
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Speaker 2: this regime. He's there in the second row behind Aaron Rodgers.

431
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 2: He will likely be in the consideration for the starting

432
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Speaker 2: quarterback going forward. So I would really not be surprised

433
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Speaker 2: if the Packers lose another two or three games if

434
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Speaker 2: John Laughed at some point would be the starter, even

435
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Speaker 2: without any injury to Aaron Rodgers. Secondly, when it comes

436
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Speaker 2: to the injuries, I mean, the Packers offense was below

437
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 2: average to begin with, and losing the speed of Christian

438
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:32,119
Speaker 2: Watson to a second concussion within three weeks, losing Romeo Dobbs,

439
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:36,160
Speaker 2: who was one of the let's say lights in that offense.

440
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 2: Aaron Jones he will likely play this week, but he

441
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 2: might be limited David Bactieri get another hit to his

442
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:46,919
Speaker 2: knee or something. So there is really nothing to like

443
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:53,239
Speaker 2: about this offense going forward. And the only thing that

444
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,200
Speaker 2: was good for the Packers this year was their pass defense,

445
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 2: and now you lose your best pass rusher. In Russian

446
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 2: Gary people can run on the Packers. They have issues

447
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,119
Speaker 2: passing the ball on the Packers. But if you cannot

448
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:10,160
Speaker 2: get enough pressure right now, I mean, I just think

449
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:12,159
Speaker 2: their season is completely over right now.

450
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, all right. Let's look at some of the

451
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 1: market movement for the games that we have coming in

452
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 1: weeked in and let's start with that game in Germany,

453
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 1: Seattle playing Tampa Bay in Munich. By the way, are

454
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 1: you happening to go to that game?

455
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 3: I'm not.

456
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:34,399
Speaker 2: I'm a little bit sad about it, but I think

457
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:40,040
Speaker 2: there were north of five hundred thousand ticket requests and

458
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 2: when we tried to get some tickets, we were in

459
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 2: the queue at place three hundred sixty thousand or whatever,

460
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 2: and we had no shot of getting any tickets.

461
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 1: Ah, that's too bad. That's too bad. Well, I mean,

462
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 1: at least you will get to watch, you know, in

463
00:27:56,320 --> 00:28:00,200
Speaker 1: the country. And I mean I think tremendous experience there.

464
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 1: But okay, so this this game in the in the

465
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 1: off season market, which you know isn't a highly liquid market,

466
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:11,680
Speaker 1: but you still have book makers who are putting these

467
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 1: lines out there and they can take money on it.

468
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 1: So in this this market, in the preseason, this line

469
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 1: was nine and a half in the I mean, that's

470
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 1: an amazing difference now between where we are nine and

471
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 1: a half two and a half in the look ahead

472
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 1: market last Thursday, when it opened in the early market

473
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 1: on Sunday, this line was one. And I mean the

474
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:36,439
Speaker 1: immediate instinct I had was, this is this is too short.

475
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 1: I had already, you know, with the power ratings, with

476
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 1: the model, I'd already done the projection. I had this

477
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 1: at three and so that felt like an auto bet there.

478
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 1: It has now moved up back to two h and

479
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 1: let me make sure I'm looking at the most recent

480
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 1: number now here, but I think it actually might even

481
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 1: be up to two and a half now, yeah, two

482
00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 1: and a half now with some books, So I mean

483
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 1: it is certainly moved. What do you make of what

484
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 1: we've seen in this market?

485
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, so, first of all, when the schedule came out

486
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 2: and we knew that we're going, we would be seeing

487
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 2: the Bucks against the Sea Ox in Germany. Every literally

488
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 2: everyone was saying, Oh, what a loop sided game. That's

489
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 2: going to be over at halftime. The Sex are bad,

490
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 2: the Buckets are playing for the Super Bowl. The look

491
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 2: ahead number is close to ten or something, And I mean,

492
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 2: I think that it's very rare that we see these

493
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 2: drastic adjustments from the preseason look ahead line towards a

494
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 2: week nine line without significant injuries like to the quarterback

495
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 2: or something. So this is really really fun to look at.

496
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 2: But I also think it's completely justified because the Sea Hawks,

497
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 2: no matter and what you will look at based on

498
00:29:56,840 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 2: the first nine weeks, I think it's hard to make

499
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 2: a case that the Bucks were the significantly better team,

500
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 2: especially recently. The Bucks that stretched off with games against

501
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 2: the Panthers, Steelers, and Rams. They lost two of those

502
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 2: games and needed a last minute miracle to beat the

503
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:23,160
Speaker 2: Rams last week, and the Seks have really looked as

504
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 2: a complete team on both sides of the ball recently,

505
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 2: so I think this adjustment is very warranted.

506
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 3: And I also think that.

507
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:35,560
Speaker 2: The market right now is saying our prior on the Buccaneers,

508
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 2: especially with them being able healthier now than that in

509
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 2: recent years, especially on their secondary. Even though Shack Berrett

510
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 2: will be out, is still strong enough to make this

511
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 2: game a favorite on a usual field. But yeah, I

512
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 2: mean the sex are you mentioned it earlier? The Sex

513
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 2: are one of the biggest surprises. I also had them

514
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 2: as a bottom of the team. I had them, I

515
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 2: don't know, bottom five or something. I did not expect this.

516
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 2: I did not expect their their defense to make such

517
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:11,240
Speaker 2: an in season transition. And I also did not expect

518
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 2: Gino Smith to make like Ryan Tannehill two or something.

519
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 2: So two point zero, Yeah, great stuff. Cutos to that

520
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 2: coaching staff, cutos to that maybe generational draft because you

521
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 2: also have like a fourth and sixth on rookie knoback

522
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 2: playing exceptionally well on the back end.

523
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 3: Right now, I mean I can only praise.

524
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 1: The right now. Yeah, it's like a parlay situation. For

525
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 1: that team to turn into what it is now, Gino

526
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 1: Smith had had to have a season that very few

527
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 1: people would have foreseen. Uh, That offensive line with two

528
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 1: rookie tackles had had to play much better than anyone

529
00:31:57,040 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 1: would have anticipated. And then on the defense in the secondary,

530
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 1: two rookie cornerbacks had to outperform expectations in a manner

531
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 1: that no one would have anticipated. And you put it

532
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 1: all together, and yeah, this team is playing with with

533
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:18,600
Speaker 1: some I mean serious mojo, right, I mean it feels

534
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:22,560
Speaker 1: like they are, especially in underdog situations. They are the

535
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 1: type of team that can win outright against almost anybody,

536
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 1: you know, except for one of you know, the better

537
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 1: teams in the league, you know, Chiefs, you know, Bills,

538
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 1: that type of situation. And speaking of the Bills, we've

539
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 1: got to talk about this game. So this you know,

540
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 1: you have Buffalo hosting the Vikings the Bills. In the

541
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 1: preseason look ahead market, you know, this number was seven

542
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 1: and a half or eight, and you know it opens

543
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 1: seven and a half, and you're like, oh, you know,

544
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 1: not much adjustment, right, Everything seems to be the same,

545
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 1: except like there's been some serious movement in the look

546
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 1: ahead market. On Thursday, this number was nine and a half,

547
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 1: and I would say even that to me felt a

548
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 1: little bit low. But now we have seen Josh Allen

549
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:15,000
Speaker 1: for six consecutive quarters play subpar football and then at

550
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 1: the end of last week's game injured his elbow, and

551
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 1: so this did open at seven and a half above

552
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 1: the key number, but it went under and it's you know,

553
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 1: it hit six and a half and now it is

554
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 1: at six. I'm looking at bet MGM right now. And

555
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 1: by the way, bet mgm where you can get a

556
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 1: risk free bet of up to two thousand dollars when

557
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 1: he used the promo code betting pros with your first deposit.

558
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 1: Looking at bet mgm, it is six. You know this

559
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 1: number is six and five and a half even at

560
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 1: some books five and a half now DraftKings fan duel,

561
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 1: I mean, the market seems to be indicating that either

562
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 1: Josh Allen is not going to play, or that if

563
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 1: he plays, he will be extremely limited, or if he plays,

564
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 1: he will be more can to the version of Josh

565
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 1: Allen that we've seen in the past ex quarters, in

566
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 1: the Josh Allen we saw at the beginning of the year.

567
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:07,720
Speaker 1: What do you make of this line?

568
00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you nailed it. Circle.

569
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 2: Las Vegas is currently taking ten K and there are

570
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 2: at six and Circa Colorado is taking three K and

571
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,400
Speaker 2: they are at five right now.

572
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:23,320
Speaker 3: Yeah.

573
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 2: So today I listen to a podcast and I basically

574
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:32,400
Speaker 2: try to gather some more viewpoints from all those Twitter doctors.

575
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 2: The fantasy doctors and stuff like that, and I think

576
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 2: the reasonable expectation right now is that he might miss

577
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:44,680
Speaker 2: up to two weeks with a I think it's a

578
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 2: sprained UCL guind of injury something like that, because it

579
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 2: doesn't sound too optimistic from the bills pr department that

580
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 2: they are saying he will at least be limited. And

581
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:03,720
Speaker 2: then afterwards, I think they said they are awaiting further

582
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 2: tests on its Tuesday. So that makes me a little

583
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:13,000
Speaker 2: bit pessimistic for his availability this week. Even if he

584
00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:18,880
Speaker 2: could play, I think that it's probably reasonable to expect

585
00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:22,360
Speaker 2: them to sit him, to rest his elbow and be

586
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 2: ready for the late November, December, December parts of the season.

587
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:32,440
Speaker 2: And yeah, the market right now is basically telling us

588
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:37,719
Speaker 2: that it's maybe fifty to fifty that he plays, but

589
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 2: likely it will be probably case keenum.

590
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:46,400
Speaker 1: All right, So another game here, looking at the Giants

591
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 1: hosting the Texans. In the preseason look ahead market, this

592
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 1: number was three in the Thursday look ahead market. Last

593
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 1: week this number was six, And I bet this in

594
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:00,279
Speaker 1: the look ahead market. And by the way, when I

595
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:02,880
Speaker 1: grab a number early, I always log my bets in

596
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 1: the betting pros app where you can sync up with

597
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 1: sports books, get free betting advice and picks, track different experts,

598
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 1: track fine movement, track your own bets, and you can

599
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 1: get sports betting alerts. And we monitor all the major

600
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:15,440
Speaker 1: sports books so you can see which book is offering

601
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:17,640
Speaker 1: the best line on a bet at any given moment.

602
00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:21,479
Speaker 1: So download the app today in the Apple or Google Play. Shore.

603
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 1: So I grabbed this number at six. It opened in

604
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:27,200
Speaker 1: the early market on Sunday at six and a half.

605
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 1: It is now seven. I mean the Giants at home,

606
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:35,839
Speaker 1: I believe, coming off of a buy seven point favorites here.

607
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 1: What are you making of this line?

608
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 2: I think the market came back to six and a half.

609
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 2: I'm currently looking at six and a half across the board.

610
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 2: I think it came after the Xavier McKinnon news that

611
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:53,279
Speaker 2: he broke his head or something while he was on

612
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:55,160
Speaker 2: vacation in Cargo or something.

613
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 3: Yeah. So the Giants another.

614
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 2: Fascinating team for a while. This season is so so weird.

615
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 2: Going into the season, I think it was maybe reasonable

616
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:11,320
Speaker 2: to poweraate the Giants a little bit higher than the Texans,

617
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 2: maybe let's say two or three points or something. But

618
00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:18,319
Speaker 2: after this season played out, I mean, the Giants are

619
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 2: not that juggernaut from a ten perspective, but their coaching

620
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:26,520
Speaker 2: star staff has certainly raised the entire floor of this

621
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 2: team and really puts all guys into a better situation.

622
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:36,040
Speaker 2: And their offense is coming up as coming out as

623
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:39,680
Speaker 2: an average unit in terms of efficiency metrics. Sekwon Barkley

624
00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:42,440
Speaker 2: is having a great season, Danil Jones is using his legs,

625
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 2: also scrambling a lot. Only their defense is not playing

626
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:49,160
Speaker 2: so well, but they are making some key plays in

627
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:52,400
Speaker 2: key situations like against the Ravens for example, against the

628
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 2: Panda's laid with all those cover zero blitzers and stuff

629
00:37:56,080 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 2: like that. So yeah, it's also very reasonable. Meant something

630
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:05,120
Speaker 2: that we did not frostee going into week one, I

631
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:06,879
Speaker 2: would say, all.

632
00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:10,359
Speaker 1: Right, so something else we didn't foresee going into week one.

633
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 1: I mean green Bay. We talked about them earlier, but

634
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:19,240
Speaker 1: Green Bay Packers at Lambeau hosting the Cowboys in the

635
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:22,439
Speaker 1: off season look ahead market, the Packers were favored by four.

636
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 1: And we have seen a massive turn of events here

637
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:29,759
Speaker 1: last week in the look ahead market. This number was

638
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:33,320
Speaker 1: two and a half. On Sunday night when this reopened,

639
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 1: it was four and a half. It moved to five

640
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:38,880
Speaker 1: and right now as I am looking at the betting

641
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 1: Pros Odds page, I see this number at five and

642
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 1: a half at bet MGM five at some other books.

643
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 1: But you know, there's the possibility we start to see

644
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 1: this line creep even closer towards seven. Man, I mean,

645
00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:00,800
Speaker 1: what I just got to say, the idea of betting

646
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:04,759
Speaker 1: against Aaron Rodgers at lambeau Field makes my stomach hurt.

647
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 1: But at the same time, I grabbed this number four

648
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 1: and a half. You know, I mean, I'm I'm I'm

649
00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 1: committed to it. Where are you on this game? What

650
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 1: do you see?

651
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 3: Yeah?

652
00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:17,640
Speaker 2: I mean, could you ever imagine everyone just being a

653
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:18,919
Speaker 2: five point underdog at home?

654
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:21,279
Speaker 3: Like going going.

655
00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:23,440
Speaker 2: Into the season, even even though we believe that the

656
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 2: Packers might take a step back, we would not have

657
00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 2: made them five point hundred bucks at home to anyone

658
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 2: in the league, not the Biz, not that, not the Chiefs,

659
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:35,919
Speaker 2: not not anyone. But at the same side, I mean,

660
00:39:36,320 --> 00:39:39,279
Speaker 2: when we look at these both teams from let's say,

661
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:43,319
Speaker 2: from a linear power rating perspective, we will probably have

662
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:49,280
Speaker 2: the Cowboys somewhere near the upper team behind the Eagles somewhere,

663
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:54,160
Speaker 2: let's say somewhere just for just for one example purpose

664
00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:57,600
Speaker 2: right now, let's say you install the Cowboys as plus

665
00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:01,239
Speaker 2: four in a power waiting and you will probably have

666
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:04,839
Speaker 2: the Packers as a below average team, let's say minus two,

667
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:09,319
Speaker 2: minus one and a half. No matter depends on how

668
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:15,720
Speaker 2: you incorporate those injuries for the upcoming week. So yeah,

669
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:19,600
Speaker 2: that's already let's say a six point difference on a

670
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 2: linear scale. Then you would adjust a little bit for

671
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 2: huntrel advantage, and then you got to think about what

672
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 2: are these injuries worth in this specific match up against

673
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 2: a Cowboys team that is almost healthy coming.

674
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:34,759
Speaker 3: Out of the bye week.

675
00:40:35,160 --> 00:40:38,399
Speaker 2: I mean, outside of John Lewis, I think they might

676
00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 2: be completely healthy on both sides of the wall. I mean,

677
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:44,880
Speaker 2: Terrence Smith is still still on IR. But other than that,

678
00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 2: even Ezekiel Edit might play. Some people will say that

679
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 2: they downward from Tony Pollard, and I'm also not quite

680
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:56,040
Speaker 2: sure that he's really going to play.

681
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:56,840
Speaker 3: Maybe he will.

682
00:40:56,680 --> 00:40:59,200
Speaker 2: But might be on a stepcom because he could have

683
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 2: a bon bos in his knee. But if you're just

684
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 2: for the matchup, I mean, it's it's really hard to

685
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:11,400
Speaker 2: make this number significantly law in my opinion. But I

686
00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 2: also think that if this moves to six. There might

687
00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:20,440
Speaker 2: certainly be some betting interest at in grabbing the D

688
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:21,960
Speaker 2: plus six for the pickers at home.

689
00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, it will be interesting to see, I mean six fills.

690
00:41:27,160 --> 00:41:30,359
Speaker 1: Even as someone who's kind of skeptical on what's going

691
00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 1: on with the Packers right now because of all the injuries,

692
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:34,880
Speaker 1: six feels like that would be too far and that

693
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:38,439
Speaker 1: we would probably see buy back there. One final game

694
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 1: to look at here in terms of the market movement,

695
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 1: we've got the San Francisco forty nine Ers hosting the

696
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 1: Chargers in the offseason look ahead market. This number was

697
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:51,680
Speaker 1: you know, around minus one even, you know, zero point

698
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 1: five in the look ahead market. On Thursday it was

699
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 1: four and a half. And I gotta say, I have

700
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:00,880
Speaker 1: a few kind of like guiding principles, and one of

701
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:02,719
Speaker 1: them is that I just I never want to bet

702
00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 1: on Kyle Shanahan when he's a home favorite. That's like

703
00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:09,360
Speaker 1: a smash situation in which he almost always not almost always,

704
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:14,560
Speaker 1: but he regularly underwhelms in that spot, you know. And

705
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:16,160
Speaker 1: so I saw four and a half and I thought,

706
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:19,319
Speaker 1: you know, I like, I see some theoretical value there,

707
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:20,759
Speaker 1: I just don't know if I want to bet on it.

708
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:25,600
Speaker 1: And then of course this number opens you know, significantly

709
00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 1: higher than that, and you know six and a half,

710
00:42:28,760 --> 00:42:33,560
Speaker 1: where now it's seven across the board here, where are

711
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:36,280
Speaker 1: you looking at at this game?

712
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:42,200
Speaker 2: I mean, this seems like a nightmare matchup for the

713
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:46,120
Speaker 2: current state or for the count iteration of the Chargers

714
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 2: team in general. I mean, if both teams are completely healthy,

715
00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 2: you would probably see a split of Dina's two and

716
00:42:56,960 --> 00:42:59,880
Speaker 2: a half minus three in that range, I would argue,

717
00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 2: But the Charters are so crazily banged up that their

718
00:43:06,719 --> 00:43:11,120
Speaker 2: injuries become weaknesses to the point where it probably gets

719
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:14,160
Speaker 2: compounded by three when playing.

720
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:15,000
Speaker 3: This for the Nina's team.

721
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:18,920
Speaker 2: Like their run defense is not great, the Niners with

722
00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:22,880
Speaker 2: Christian McCaffrey are probably a top ten to one offense

723
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:27,759
Speaker 2: at this point. Right now, the Charter's offensive line is

724
00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:30,799
Speaker 2: banned up. Even Trey Pipkins might might be out this week,

725
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:33,719
Speaker 2: so it could be a Storm Norton season once again,

726
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:35,320
Speaker 2: Storm Norton against Nick Bosa.

727
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:38,680
Speaker 3: Terrible matchup. The Fortinas defense is.

728
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:44,839
Speaker 2: Getting healthier, they can easily shut down the run game,

729
00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:48,200
Speaker 2: they get pressure on that Shotter's offensive line, and the

730
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:54,800
Speaker 2: whole Chargers offense is basically the the let's call five

731
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 2: sticks and see what what happens. Like everything is a

732
00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:02,880
Speaker 2: shot odd. They are not really using just Norbert to

733
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 2: the best of his ability. And a nother defense has

734
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:09,320
Speaker 2: been really good at closing down on space. So every

735
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:13,360
Speaker 2: short pass this defense has so much speed on the

736
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:15,640
Speaker 2: field they can close down.

737
00:44:15,560 --> 00:44:16,440
Speaker 3: Very very well.

738
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:21,279
Speaker 2: And yeah, everything that the Niners two well is all

739
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:23,960
Speaker 2: of a sudden, a weakness of the charters going into

740
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:28,279
Speaker 2: this matchup with all the injuries. Chanslater Mike Williams Keen Allen,

741
00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:31,239
Speaker 2: I don't think and we're back this week, back this

742
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:35,040
Speaker 2: week offensive line. Their run game is not great. Like

743
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:39,240
Speaker 2: everything that went bad for the Chargers in recent weeks

744
00:44:39,560 --> 00:44:43,040
Speaker 2: might get compounded against the Niners. And that's why we

745
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:45,960
Speaker 2: are seeing a sport of seven instead of maybe three

746
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:47,920
Speaker 2: if both teams were healthy.

747
00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:50,200
Speaker 1: Do you think this hits seven and a half.

748
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:52,920
Speaker 2: If you put me on the spot, I would think

749
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:55,520
Speaker 2: it rather hits seven and a half than six and

750
00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:55,879
Speaker 2: a half.

751
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:59,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right, I think too. I don't think it's

752
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:02,279
Speaker 1: going back down. It's not to say it's going up,

753
00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:05,319
Speaker 1: but I don't think it's going down. All right, let's

754
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 1: look just to close this out here, Thursday Night Football,

755
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:12,720
Speaker 1: we've got the Panthers hosting the Falcons. Falcons on the road,

756
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:16,880
Speaker 1: favored by three in the off season look ahead market.

757
00:45:17,239 --> 00:45:20,480
Speaker 1: The Panthers were favored by four in the look ahead

758
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:24,520
Speaker 1: market on Thursday. The Panthers were one and a half

759
00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:29,000
Speaker 1: point underdogs. On Sunday. This opened as two and a

760
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:31,600
Speaker 1: half plus two and a half with the Panthers, and

761
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:35,040
Speaker 1: now it has moved to three. Let me make sure

762
00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:38,839
Speaker 1: we are actually still at three. Yeah, we're still at

763
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:42,879
Speaker 1: three on that number, so you know, significant movement from

764
00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:45,759
Speaker 1: what we would have expected in the off season to

765
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:49,440
Speaker 1: where we are now. I gotta say I bet this

766
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:51,880
Speaker 1: at two and a half, but I have this projected

767
00:45:52,120 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 1: exactly three. And on the over under here, you know

768
00:45:56,640 --> 00:46:02,400
Speaker 1: it's forty four and a half. I have it exactly.

769
00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:06,319
Speaker 1: I have it forty four point four. So I'm not

770
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:09,520
Speaker 1: really showing any value there. Of course, I guess if

771
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:11,640
Speaker 1: you had to bet in one direction and probably just

772
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:14,560
Speaker 1: always bet the under given what we've seen this year.

773
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:17,319
Speaker 1: But do you have any thoughts on what we might

774
00:46:17,360 --> 00:46:18,080
Speaker 1: see in this game?

775
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:22,600
Speaker 2: I don't have a strong opinion in terms of how

776
00:46:22,640 --> 00:46:25,560
Speaker 2: the game might play out. I think it will play

777
00:46:25,560 --> 00:46:29,840
Speaker 2: out differently from the last game. I mean, when we

778
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:33,399
Speaker 2: think about the clothing, I think the Falcon's closed minus four,

779
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:36,680
Speaker 2: minus fifteen, something somewhere in that range.

780
00:46:37,080 --> 00:46:38,640
Speaker 3: Now they are laying three on the road.

781
00:46:38,680 --> 00:46:41,799
Speaker 2: That's basically a six percent adjustment in terms of win

782
00:46:41,920 --> 00:46:47,480
Speaker 2: probability switching a home field advantage. That sounds reasonable to me.

783
00:46:48,160 --> 00:46:51,719
Speaker 2: I don't think that any injury situation on either side

784
00:46:51,760 --> 00:46:55,719
Speaker 2: got significantly was verus the other. So we are just

785
00:46:56,080 --> 00:47:00,320
Speaker 2: basically saying, hey, hopefully advantage switch six percent will probability

786
00:47:01,000 --> 00:47:03,080
Speaker 2: Either you think that's too high or too low.

787
00:47:04,640 --> 00:47:06,800
Speaker 3: And I think in the first game.

788
00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:11,520
Speaker 2: The Dependers average open to E P A on runs

789
00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:17,359
Speaker 2: that's even very high against a Falcons defense, and PG

790
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:21,640
Speaker 2: Walker had like two or three let's say two percent

791
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:26,799
Speaker 2: completion probability balls in the second half. That it's very

792
00:47:26,840 --> 00:47:30,000
Speaker 2: hard to see him bringing bringing that a game. And

793
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:33,320
Speaker 2: it's also hard to see the whole pan of Panders

794
00:47:33,320 --> 00:47:38,600
Speaker 2: offense bringing that a game again. So if you think

795
00:47:38,880 --> 00:47:42,719
Speaker 2: the the the Panders had a miracle game against the

796
00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:46,360
Speaker 2: Falcons earlier, I think it's reasonable to look at the.

797
00:47:46,600 --> 00:47:48,520
Speaker 3: Falcon Falcus in this game.

798
00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:51,680
Speaker 2: Or if you say the Falcons are also a fake

799
00:47:51,760 --> 00:47:54,960
Speaker 2: team and the Panders are getting a little bit healthier

800
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:58,120
Speaker 2: on defense. Someone might look into the Pandas. But for

801
00:47:58,239 --> 00:48:01,239
Speaker 2: me right now, I have none but anything on this game,

802
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:04,439
Speaker 2: and I don't really have a strong opinion either way.

803
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, the real winner of the game might be the

804
00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:09,680
Speaker 1: person who decides not to watch this on Thursday night.

805
00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:13,040
Speaker 3: I will certainly not stay away for this.

806
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:18,400
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, your incentive to watch these games is a

807
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 1: little bit different than the incentive for people in North America.

808
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:25,839
Speaker 1: But yeah, either way, wherever you are, it might be

809
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:29,720
Speaker 1: a strong life decision not to watch this game. All right, Summa,

810
00:48:29,800 --> 00:48:32,080
Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Tell people about all

811
00:48:32,080 --> 00:48:34,320
Speaker 1: that you have going on at the Hammer Network.

812
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:38,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, So on every Monday around ten am in the morning,

813
00:48:39,080 --> 00:48:42,520
Speaker 2: I will have my takeaways out club where I dive

814
00:48:42,600 --> 00:48:47,040
Speaker 2: into certainly usually into three or four things that stood

815
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:49,560
Speaker 2: out to me. On Sunday, we'll find it on the

816
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:54,360
Speaker 2: Hammer dot bet. On Wednesdays, I'm doing the Move the

817
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:59,040
Speaker 2: Line shows with my friend met Leanders, where we dive

818
00:48:59,080 --> 00:49:01,759
Speaker 2: into some of the marquee line moves up to this

819
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 2: point and try to make any sense of it.

820
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:06,480
Speaker 3: Why the the the betting market.

821
00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:10,759
Speaker 2: Bets has been a certain set up why they like

822
00:49:10,840 --> 00:49:14,359
Speaker 2: the under in any game or over or something like that.

823
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:20,799
Speaker 2: And on Thursdays I do the Matchbook podcast with Ju

824
00:49:20,920 --> 00:49:25,720
Speaker 2: Dinsik and Rock Pizzola that starts at two thirty Eastern

825
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:30,520
Speaker 2: Eastern time. Always promoted on Twitter. And yeah, if you

826
00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 2: want to follow me on Twitter, you can find me

827
00:49:33,040 --> 00:49:36,840
Speaker 2: at at SUMA eight one zero.

828
00:49:36,800 --> 00:49:37,480
Speaker 3: S u U m A.

829
00:49:38,760 --> 00:49:43,319
Speaker 1: Yeah. The the Matchbook pod is absolutely great, one of

830
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:46,640
Speaker 1: my must listens every week. And also I believe the

831
00:49:46,680 --> 00:49:48,239
Speaker 1: show that you do with Land is that is a

832
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:51,800
Speaker 1: you guys talk a little beer on there too, right?

833
00:49:51,840 --> 00:49:54,399
Speaker 1: Am I wrong about that? Yeah? What do you give

834
00:49:54,440 --> 00:49:57,799
Speaker 1: me the you know, like the the one minute you know,

835
00:49:57,920 --> 00:50:01,400
Speaker 1: I mean Germany like known for beer there? What are

836
00:50:01,440 --> 00:50:04,680
Speaker 1: your thoughts on just give me, like the some beer education,

837
00:50:04,800 --> 00:50:06,640
Speaker 1: Like what what is the stuff that you like to drink?

838
00:50:07,520 --> 00:50:10,440
Speaker 2: So so the the stuff I like to drink. I

839
00:50:10,600 --> 00:50:15,080
Speaker 2: come from a region in Germany. It's near Dortmund and

840
00:50:15,320 --> 00:50:20,840
Speaker 2: here we particularly drink pilsner and Germany is very famous

841
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:24,040
Speaker 2: for its for its pilsner. You can get so many

842
00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 2: different castes brands whatsoever. I also like to drink Vice beer.

843
00:50:31,920 --> 00:50:37,360
Speaker 2: It's a Bavarian beer. Some stuff that you can usually

844
00:50:37,360 --> 00:50:41,640
Speaker 2: find on the Otoba fest or something like that. Yeah,

845
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:47,320
Speaker 2: so Pilsner, John Piltner, German Vice White Beer Whites, and

846
00:50:47,400 --> 00:50:50,880
Speaker 2: if you can find this in any grocery store, just

847
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:51,439
Speaker 2: try out.

848
00:50:52,160 --> 00:50:54,560
Speaker 1: All right, sounds great. I mean it's football season, which

849
00:50:54,600 --> 00:50:58,879
Speaker 1: means for many people it is beer drinking season. So yeah,

850
00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:03,040
Speaker 1: fantastic up there. All right, that's Fabian Summer on Twitter.

851
00:51:03,239 --> 00:51:06,040
Speaker 1: As he said earlier at SUMA eight one ten, I'm

852
00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:08,759
Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman, matt fd Oracle. Check out Betting Pros and

853
00:51:08,800 --> 00:51:11,840
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros for all my work best bets, player props,

854
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:15,440
Speaker 1: Fantasy favorites, player projections and rankings and more. That's going

855
00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:18,040
Speaker 1: to do it for the week ten Market Movement Empower

856
00:51:18,080 --> 00:51:20,480
Speaker 1: Ratings edition of the Betting Pros Pod. If you like

857
00:51:20,560 --> 00:51:23,480
Speaker 1: the show, please rate and review on your favorite podcast app.

858
00:51:23,680 --> 00:51:26,200
Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in, good luck, and see you next

859
00:51:26,239 --> 00:51:28,399
Speaker 1: episode