WEBVTT - UK’s Tax Cuts Trigger Crash

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Search Bloomberg Clobal News. Well, Liz trush's government has set

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<v Speaker 1>out the most radical package of tax cuts for the

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<v Speaker 1>UK since nineteen seventy two, reducing levies both on worker

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<v Speaker 1>pay and companies in an effort to boost the long

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<v Speaker 1>term potential of the economy. The package is going to

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<v Speaker 1>cost a hundred and sixty one billion dollars. It's aimed

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<v Speaker 1>at stimulating the economy, but economists say that measures will

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<v Speaker 1>add to inflation and debt. Very pleased with us this

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<v Speaker 1>afternoon to have Philip Aldrich, senior UK economics reporter for

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News, joining us on the phone from London. Feel

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<v Speaker 1>good to have you with us. Appreciate you staying up

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<v Speaker 1>late on a Friday to join us on Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week to lay out for us exactly what happened in

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<v Speaker 1>exactly what's in this package and why markets are reacting

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<v Speaker 1>the way they are. Yeah, so the big the big

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<v Speaker 1>measures was a bunch of tax cuts. That we that

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<v Speaker 1>we had some personal tax cuts Um. There was a

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<v Speaker 1>surprise cut in the top rate of tax um for

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<v Speaker 1>the wealthiest one percent of earners. We had a cut

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<v Speaker 1>in the basic rate of income tax Um. There's also

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<v Speaker 1>a change in payroll taxes and employers were given money

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<v Speaker 1>off through corporation taxes and and also this this national

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<v Speaker 1>insurance contribution tax cut. That there was also a tax

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<v Speaker 1>cut on property transactions, and it was really quite an

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<v Speaker 1>extraordinary sort of collection of tax cuts. And the idea

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<v Speaker 1>was to accompany that with some with some sort of

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<v Speaker 1>supply side reforms, these kind of these these regulatory deregulation

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<v Speaker 1>agenda of the of the new government because of course,

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<v Speaker 1>to be in power for about three weeks. So so

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<v Speaker 1>what happens in a situation like this? I mean, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>and not to not to totally show off my ignorance

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<v Speaker 1>as an American, but with an understanding of how the

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<v Speaker 1>British government works. If the prime minister says it is,

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<v Speaker 1>so is it, so you've got to go so this.

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<v Speaker 1>This will all go through the legislature. So, Um, much

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<v Speaker 1>of this will have to have to be approved in law.

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<v Speaker 1>So there will be votes on it. In reality, this

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<v Speaker 1>trust has got a stalking majority in parliament, so the

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<v Speaker 1>Tories will be able to get through everything she wants

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<v Speaker 1>if they support her. But the problem is a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of these policies because they're more of the libertarian wing

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<v Speaker 1>of the Tory Party, Um, and that isn't, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the mainstream centrist part of the of the of the party.

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<v Speaker 1>So she may face rebellion amongst her own truths, amongst

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<v Speaker 1>her own MPs, but you know she will be these

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<v Speaker 1>these tax cuts will be voted on and the regulatory

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<v Speaker 1>reforms on planning and banking deregulation. They will be voted

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<v Speaker 1>on and she's probably going to bathe more difficulty on

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<v Speaker 1>the planning and the regulation stuff that she will on

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<v Speaker 1>on the Finance Bill, which is the straightforward tax cuts.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, it's been a big, crazy day the

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<v Speaker 1>markets have really reacted negatively to this. So you know,

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<v Speaker 1>anything's on the table at the moment. Well, let's talk

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<v Speaker 1>about what, at least George Saravellos of Geutsia Bank things

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<v Speaker 1>should be on the table from the Bank of England.

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<v Speaker 1>I got this note in my inbox earlier. The subject

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<v Speaker 1>was what needs to be done and George Saravellos, he

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<v Speaker 1>is currency strategists over at Geutsa Bank. He's calling for

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<v Speaker 1>a quote large Inter meeting rate hike from the bank

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<v Speaker 1>limp England as soon as next week. I was pretty

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<v Speaker 1>surprised to see this. Philip, is there any chance of

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<v Speaker 1>this actually happening? I doubt it. I don't think there

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<v Speaker 1>would be. I mean, if it was, it would basically

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<v Speaker 1>be a signal that, you know, a policy instetitions, a

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<v Speaker 1>panicky Um. So I think it's unlike and he said

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<v Speaker 1>that George was warning about Um, you know, the pound

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<v Speaker 1>collapse a week or two ago and he was being dismissed.

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<v Speaker 1>And then, of course, today we had three percent all

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<v Speaker 1>and stirring against the dollar and that followed a series

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<v Speaker 1>of other falls and the pounds fell below one dollar

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<v Speaker 1>nine cents at one point, which is you know, astonishing.

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<v Speaker 1>And you know people are now talking about parity with

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<v Speaker 1>the dollar, which you know we we ta close to

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<v Speaker 1>that in Um, you know, in the plaza. Of course

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<v Speaker 1>stuff is happening, but the UH, you know, that would

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<v Speaker 1>be absolutely astonishing, if you know, if we hit, if

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<v Speaker 1>we hit parody with the dollar. But it doesn't look

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<v Speaker 1>unfeasible any longer. Um. I don't think there will be

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<v Speaker 1>an into, an into inter rate meeting, emergency rate hike,

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<v Speaker 1>but you know, anything is possible at the moment. It's

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<v Speaker 1>the marks. have been digesting this for for literally eight hours.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think there would be some calmer responses next week.

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<v Speaker 1>And is there any chance that you the trust government

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<v Speaker 1>is looking at the widespread, uh just I don't even

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<v Speaker 1>know what to call it, wildness in markets right now

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<v Speaker 1>and rethinking at all? Uh. I would be hugely humiliating

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<v Speaker 1>to have to rethink a policy after just a few hours.

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<v Speaker 1>Actually quietly, quiet selling the chancellor who laid all of

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<v Speaker 1>this stuff out. He Um, he did say that. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>markets will do what they do. We're thinking for the

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<v Speaker 1>longer term here. Um. So I don't think they were

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<v Speaker 1>expecting a route the kind of massive self that we've seen,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, sterling being guilt yields Um you know, rising

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<v Speaker 1>where amongst the UK government broacasts are now amongst that

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<v Speaker 1>that sort of euros own periphery, the Portuguese and Spanish

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<v Speaker 1>government bond yields. So it doesn't it really doesn't look

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<v Speaker 1>good at the moment. But the reason why they would

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<v Speaker 1>reconsider things would be if there is an internal Tory

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<v Speaker 1>rebellion and will not be based on the market reactions.

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<v Speaker 1>That would be based on a calculation on their on

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<v Speaker 1>their own elector elect electability in their constituencies, which will,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, there will be poles about whether the whether

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<v Speaker 1>these tax cuts for the super rich and non awful

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<v Speaker 1>lot to the people on the incomes and that might

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<v Speaker 1>not go down particularly well. Philip Aldric, really great to

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<v Speaker 1>have you joined us this afternoon. Thank you so much

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<v Speaker 1>that senior UK economics reporter Philip Aldrick joining us on

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<v Speaker 1>the phone from London. This is Bloomberg Business Week with

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<v Speaker 1>Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg radio. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>in the new issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine there's

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<v Speaker 1>a story about social media companies. In fact, more than

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<v Speaker 1>seventy lawsuits have been filed this year against such social

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<v Speaker 1>media companies. We're talking about companies like Meta platforms, the

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<v Speaker 1>company formerly known as Facebook, snap Tiktok, which is owned

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<v Speaker 1>by byte dance, and Google, which owns YouTube. The lawsuits

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<v Speaker 1>center on claims from adolescence and young adults who say

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<v Speaker 1>they've suffered anxiety, depression, eating disorders and sleeplessness as a

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<v Speaker 1>result of their addiction to social media. The story written

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<v Speaker 1>by Joel Rosenblatt, legal reporter for Bloomberg News. Joel joining

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<v Speaker 1>us this afternoon on the phone from San Francisco. Joel,

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<v Speaker 1>good to have you with us. I gotta tell you

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<v Speaker 1>reading this piece, the anecdotes at the top would make

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<v Speaker 1>the stomach turn of really anyone, about kids who have

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<v Speaker 1>died by suicide, kids who are addicted to social media. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm wondering, though, about liability here. Our social media companies

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<v Speaker 1>reliable for what their users do? Well, thanks for having me.

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<v Speaker 1>That's what these suits are going to get at and

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to find out. The companies have, for a

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<v Speaker 1>very long time, I mean decades now, stood behind a

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<v Speaker 1>section to thirty of the Communications Decency Act, which holds

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<v Speaker 1>that's a law that that provides. That showed. That says

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<v Speaker 1>that the these companies can't be treated as a publisher

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<v Speaker 1>or speaker of any information provided by or generated by

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<v Speaker 1>a third party. So that you know, the argument being

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<v Speaker 1>that these companies can't be held responsible for the content

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<v Speaker 1>of what what what, what kids are seeing. So that's

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<v Speaker 1>the big hurdle. Um, they have a novel argument. These

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<v Speaker 1>lawsuits do. That's a little bit different from anything that

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<v Speaker 1>I've seen and we can talk about that if you want,

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<v Speaker 1>but that's that's the big question. That's the big hurdle.

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<v Speaker 1>A live bility. Talk about that a little bit. Yeah, well,

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<v Speaker 1>so the what they're doing. What's different about one student

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<v Speaker 1>in particular that I write about is that they are

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<v Speaker 1>they're targeting the algorithms that these companies are using and

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<v Speaker 1>so instead of saying, Oh, this content is what created

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<v Speaker 1>the problem or created the depression or or problems, it's

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<v Speaker 1>the algorithms that you've designed, that you Meta have designed

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<v Speaker 1>intentionally to Hook my kids to your platform, and so

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<v Speaker 1>it's not the other users who've posted this or interacting

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<v Speaker 1>with with people that way, it's it's the algorithm. What

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<v Speaker 1>the Algorithm is actually serving to these kids exactly, and

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<v Speaker 1>they claim is that it's designed intentionally that way, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>by those companies, to keep them hooked and down this

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<v Speaker 1>kind of spiral, are these holes of information that take

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<v Speaker 1>them to these dark places. Okay, well, you make a

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<v Speaker 1>parallel to cigarettes in here, and I want to bring

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<v Speaker 1>in Katie Greifeld, my co anchor here, because, and this

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<v Speaker 1>is I mean in all seriousness, when she had covid,

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<v Speaker 1>she came back from from covid and said, you said, Katie,

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<v Speaker 1>that you had fallen into this Tiktok hole about and

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<v Speaker 1>and had talked about how well the algorithm got to

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<v Speaker 1>know you and like, served you content that you would

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<v Speaker 1>just eat up. It's actually a joke on tiktok. When

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<v Speaker 1>really specific videos go viral, all the comments are to

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<v Speaker 1>the effect of the Algorithm knows me too well, and

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<v Speaker 1>people joke all the time that I'm so glad that

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<v Speaker 1>social media wasn't around when I was younger. I have

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<v Speaker 1>to say I am so glad that Tiktok was not

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<v Speaker 1>around when I was younger. But, Joe, I'm curious to

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<v Speaker 1>hear about what some of the law professors that you

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<v Speaker 1>spoke to for this piece are saying in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>the social media companies defenses. Well, I it's kind of

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<v Speaker 1>a split. I mean mostly you have law professors, Uh

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<v Speaker 1>Eric Goldman is is one in particular, is really expert

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<v Speaker 1>in this area at Santa Clara University, who points out

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<v Speaker 1>that the section to thirty defense is just going to

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<v Speaker 1>be too difficult to get over explain. Because, yeah, the

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<v Speaker 1>section to is the is the Communications Decency Act that

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<v Speaker 1>we talked a little bit before, which they just say,

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<v Speaker 1>they're just saying we're not responsible for the content. We can't,

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<v Speaker 1>we can't be held reliable for the content. We're just delivering.

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<v Speaker 1>We're just a delivery service, you know, we're just giving

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<v Speaker 1>you the platform and we're we can't be held liable

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<v Speaker 1>as the publisher or speaker of the content that you're seeing.

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<v Speaker 1>So He's saying that that's, first of all, just a

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<v Speaker 1>huge problem for these lawsuits. The second problem is that

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<v Speaker 1>Professor's point out is that you can't you can't just

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<v Speaker 1>point to Um, social media as a problem alone. In

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<v Speaker 1>other words, isolating social media as the cause of depression,

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<v Speaker 1>anxiety or even suicide is just too difficult. Let's take

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<v Speaker 1>any number of things including, say, you know, the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that the planet is melting there's all kinds of reasons

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<v Speaker 1>that kids are suffering from from anxiety, and just to

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<v Speaker 1>isolate social media. It's going to prove difficult. Many think, well,

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<v Speaker 1>let's go through some historical parallels here that you touch

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<v Speaker 1>on in your peace job. If we think about the

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<v Speaker 1>way that auto manufacturers have been not necessarily held liable,

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<v Speaker 1>but the public, public campaigns against them by Ralph Nader,

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<v Speaker 1>for example, of perhaps the nineteen nineties. When it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to tobacco companies, I mean I recall those tobacco executives

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<v Speaker 1>sitting there and testifying in front of Congress Um. What

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<v Speaker 1>can how does that paint some sort of picture about

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<v Speaker 1>what could happen with social media companies, or does it?

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<v Speaker 1>Is that accurate? Well, I think again, we kind come

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<v Speaker 1>up with with you know, we'll see what the courts decide,

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<v Speaker 1>because it's there's two there's at least two arguments. One

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<v Speaker 1>is that again, these suits are pointing to the algorithm

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<v Speaker 1>as a kind of almost identifying it as a product, Um,

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<v Speaker 1>so pointing, pointing not to the effects so much but

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<v Speaker 1>as this particular product that they've designed that's, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>to follow the analogy defective Um. So that's, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>right that's the kind of logic there. On the other hand,

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<v Speaker 1>if you say let's follow the analogy of the of

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<v Speaker 1>the tobacco suits. In the tobacco cases, I remember one,

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<v Speaker 1>one particular part that was very compelling. There was that

0:12:37.559 --> 0:12:41.040
<v Speaker 1>the tobacco companies were adding ammonia to to the tobacco.

0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:43.240
<v Speaker 1>I don't know if you remember that, and you could

0:12:43.280 --> 0:12:46.720
<v Speaker 1>point to them knowing that it caused cancer and knowing

0:12:46.760 --> 0:12:50.800
<v Speaker 1>that this particular chemical reaction would would cause addiction and

0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:55.600
<v Speaker 1>cause cancer. I think a problem there for these lawsuits

0:12:55.640 --> 0:12:59.120
<v Speaker 1>is that that's a particular health consequence. You know, you

0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:04.040
<v Speaker 1>could pinpoint cancer as a medical you know, scientifically a cancer,

0:13:04.080 --> 0:13:07.680
<v Speaker 1>a cancer, a disease that's caused by this product. Again,

0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:11.600
<v Speaker 1>harder to do that with social media, if not impossible.

0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:14.199
<v Speaker 1>We'll find out. Are there, you know, just in the

0:13:14.280 --> 0:13:16.200
<v Speaker 1>last forty seconds that we have with you, are there

0:13:16.240 --> 0:13:19.840
<v Speaker 1>any uh proven health claims that can be tied to

0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:21.760
<v Speaker 1>social media at this point the same way that that

0:13:21.920 --> 0:13:24.600
<v Speaker 1>we can tie them to cigarettes? Well, I'm glad that

0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:27.000
<v Speaker 1>you raise that because one, because one of the suits

0:13:27.000 --> 0:13:32.080
<v Speaker 1>that I'm following closely points to the testimony of Francis Hogan,

0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:38.760
<v Speaker 1>who you may recall testified to Congress about Meta, knowing

0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:43.559
<v Speaker 1>that instagram was causing um all kinds of anxiety with

0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:47.040
<v Speaker 1>with girls in particular, around their body image and so

0:13:47.160 --> 0:13:50.280
<v Speaker 1>and they in her when it was they knew it

0:13:50.320 --> 0:13:53.360
<v Speaker 1>and perpetuated this and are still using it and profiting

0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:56.600
<v Speaker 1>from it. Joel Rosen, black legal reporter for Bloomberg News,

0:13:56.679 --> 0:13:58.600
<v Speaker 1>joining us on the phone from San Francisco. Check out

0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:01.360
<v Speaker 1>his story. It's in the current show of Bloomberg Business

0:14:01.360 --> 0:14:04.240
<v Speaker 1>Week magazine. It's available now on newsstands and at Bloomberg

0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:09.080
<v Speaker 1>Dot Com. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:13.600
<v Speaker 1>Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg radio.

0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:16.840
<v Speaker 1>Let's turn to Crypto now and welcome in Danelle Dixon.

0:14:16.920 --> 0:14:21.560
<v Speaker 1>She is CEO and Executive Director of the Stellar Development Foundation.

0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:25.840
<v Speaker 1>It's a nonprofit organization founded in to support the development

0:14:25.840 --> 0:14:28.800
<v Speaker 1>and growth of the open source stellar network. She joins

0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:31.960
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from San Francisco. Dinnell, great to

0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:34.840
<v Speaker 1>have you with us. Just about a week ago you

0:14:35.040 --> 0:14:38.760
<v Speaker 1>testified in front of the Senate Agriculture Committee. That hearing

0:14:38.960 --> 0:14:42.960
<v Speaker 1>specifically was focused on the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act.

0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:45.840
<v Speaker 1>That of course it's a bill focused on the CFCC's

0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:49.440
<v Speaker 1>role in regulating the crypto markets. I feel like that's

0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:54.040
<v Speaker 1>a big question. Which of the acronyms actually has oversight

0:14:54.080 --> 0:14:57.120
<v Speaker 1>over the CRYPTO market? Yeah, thank you so much for

0:14:57.160 --> 0:14:58.960
<v Speaker 1>having me again. Yeah, that is a big question, but

0:14:58.960 --> 0:15:00.280
<v Speaker 1>I think that what we're gonna find. I and just

0:15:00.400 --> 0:15:02.560
<v Speaker 1>that both of them, and I think you're referring to

0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:04.760
<v Speaker 1>the SEC and the CFTC, are going to have a

0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:07.560
<v Speaker 1>role and I think what we talked about last week

0:15:07.600 --> 0:15:10.520
<v Speaker 1>with respect of this legislation was that it is really

0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:14.040
<v Speaker 1>wonderful and empowers the CFTC with the authority that it

0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:17.240
<v Speaker 1>needs to regulate the spot market for digital commodities and

0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:19.440
<v Speaker 1>it provides a lot more clarity to the industry than

0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:22.480
<v Speaker 1>we previously had. So it's bipartisan, which we love to see,

0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:26.200
<v Speaker 1>and it's continued reinforcement that Crypto is not an issue

0:15:26.200 --> 0:15:29.160
<v Speaker 1>that's divided by politics and that everyone is invested in

0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:31.360
<v Speaker 1>it and they have to get this right. So I

0:15:31.360 --> 0:15:32.920
<v Speaker 1>think we're going to see a lot more clarity if

0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:36.000
<v Speaker 1>we see bills like this one come through the house

0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:39.440
<v Speaker 1>and the Senate. What are the stakes here? The stakes

0:15:39.440 --> 0:15:41.680
<v Speaker 1>are pretty high in terms of. Really what we want

0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:43.920
<v Speaker 1>to see is a lot more players in the existing

0:15:43.960 --> 0:15:48.240
<v Speaker 1>financial infrastructure come into the CRYPTO and blockchain space, because

0:15:48.240 --> 0:15:50.320
<v Speaker 1>it really like what we focused on is payments and

0:15:50.360 --> 0:15:53.280
<v Speaker 1>cross port remittances. We need to see stable coins. We

0:15:53.320 --> 0:15:55.280
<v Speaker 1>think we need to see other players that are involved

0:15:55.280 --> 0:15:58.120
<v Speaker 1>in those kinds of payments be participate in this, and

0:15:58.160 --> 0:16:00.080
<v Speaker 1>I think that it not only gives clarity to the

0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:03.400
<v Speaker 1>existing ecosystem, but it gives a lot more clarity to

0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:06.800
<v Speaker 1>others who might want to participate but they're concerned because

0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:11.280
<v Speaker 1>of the regulatory environment. How I'm trying to think of

0:16:11.320 --> 0:16:13.240
<v Speaker 1>the word that I want to use, but I mean,

0:16:13.280 --> 0:16:18.000
<v Speaker 1>how receptive are the lawmakers, specifically at last week's hearing,

0:16:18.080 --> 0:16:22.680
<v Speaker 1>and other lawmakers that you speak with about the crypto industry?

0:16:22.680 --> 0:16:25.440
<v Speaker 1>I feel like it's had some real black eyes, especially

0:16:26.280 --> 0:16:28.800
<v Speaker 1>over the past few months, a lot of high profile

0:16:29.480 --> 0:16:31.760
<v Speaker 1>blow ups. Do you think that's sort a bit of

0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:37.680
<v Speaker 1>skepticism or mistrust along some of the potential regulators? Well,

0:16:37.720 --> 0:16:39.360
<v Speaker 1>I think, and I think it's a great point to

0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:41.880
<v Speaker 1>focus on, because I think that any industry that's new,

0:16:42.240 --> 0:16:44.200
<v Speaker 1>you're going to have like thirty steps forward and then

0:16:44.240 --> 0:16:46.200
<v Speaker 1>twenty steps back and you're going to have to climb

0:16:46.240 --> 0:16:47.760
<v Speaker 1>your back, your way back to the spot that you

0:16:47.760 --> 0:16:50.520
<v Speaker 1>were before, and I think what we saw over in

0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:53.000
<v Speaker 1>the early days of the summer with respect to those

0:16:53.000 --> 0:16:55.400
<v Speaker 1>algorithmic table coins and what happened with respect to the

0:16:55.440 --> 0:16:58.840
<v Speaker 1>market there Um will really actually change a lot if

0:16:58.840 --> 0:17:01.880
<v Speaker 1>we can get the focus to create stable coin legislation

0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:04.159
<v Speaker 1>that makes it clear about a definition of what stable

0:17:04.160 --> 0:17:06.160
<v Speaker 1>coins are, because that's a lot of what we saw.

0:17:06.200 --> 0:17:07.639
<v Speaker 1>There was a lot of leverage in the market. I've

0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:10.000
<v Speaker 1>had little to do with the infrastructure and more to

0:17:10.040 --> 0:17:13.080
<v Speaker 1>do which is leverage. So if we see clarity around this,

0:17:13.200 --> 0:17:14.479
<v Speaker 1>I think that we're going to see more and more

0:17:14.520 --> 0:17:18.160
<v Speaker 1>lawmakers want to participate here right now, and particularly last week,

0:17:18.200 --> 0:17:21.200
<v Speaker 1>there's so much support within the Senate, Senate Ad Committee,

0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:24.080
<v Speaker 1>because they are truly a bipartisan committee that works together.

0:17:24.440 --> 0:17:26.840
<v Speaker 1>So we saw a lot of really good conversation and

0:17:26.840 --> 0:17:29.960
<v Speaker 1>a lot of really good inclusion about this particular uh,

0:17:30.119 --> 0:17:33.760
<v Speaker 1>this the bill itself, but also just the industry, and frankly,

0:17:33.800 --> 0:17:35.560
<v Speaker 1>I think we're seeing that across the board, even on

0:17:35.600 --> 0:17:38.080
<v Speaker 1>the house side. So I feel really good and I

0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:41.280
<v Speaker 1>think the promise of not just this legislation but we

0:17:41.359 --> 0:17:44.520
<v Speaker 1>hear that there's also potentially stable coin legislation that could

0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:46.679
<v Speaker 1>be brought together, and I think that could be that

0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:50.040
<v Speaker 1>could come together also in a bipartisan fashion, so it'll

0:17:50.080 --> 0:17:53.800
<v Speaker 1>really move the industry forward and create again that regulatory clarity.

0:17:53.880 --> 0:17:56.120
<v Speaker 1>We all need it. One of the things that we

0:17:56.320 --> 0:17:58.440
<v Speaker 1>hear a lot from the SEC is that the how

0:17:58.440 --> 0:18:00.600
<v Speaker 1>we test, which is the one that defines that security,

0:18:00.680 --> 0:18:03.600
<v Speaker 1>is it's clear. And, frankly, if it was clear, we

0:18:03.600 --> 0:18:05.600
<v Speaker 1>wouldn't be in a situation right now of trying to

0:18:05.640 --> 0:18:07.840
<v Speaker 1>gain more clarity. So I think that we all really

0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:09.520
<v Speaker 1>want to see that happen and you know, we heard

0:18:09.680 --> 0:18:13.280
<v Speaker 1>the big banks CEOS testify earlier this week and we won.

0:18:13.359 --> 0:18:15.439
<v Speaker 1>One part that stuck out to me was what Jamie diamond,

0:18:15.440 --> 0:18:19.399
<v Speaker 1>the CEO of JP Morgan Chase, said. Uh, he called

0:18:19.640 --> 0:18:23.520
<v Speaker 1>Digital Tokens decentralized Ponzi scheme and even bitcoins specifically. He

0:18:23.560 --> 0:18:26.199
<v Speaker 1>had some choice words for it. It's it kind of

0:18:26.200 --> 0:18:28.360
<v Speaker 1>sticks with what he said in the past. Um, I'm

0:18:28.359 --> 0:18:29.879
<v Speaker 1>wondering what you thought of when you when you heard

0:18:29.960 --> 0:18:33.320
<v Speaker 1>him say that. Well, it wasn't new in terms of again, like,

0:18:33.359 --> 0:18:34.879
<v Speaker 1>as you said, we've heard this in the past and

0:18:34.880 --> 0:18:36.520
<v Speaker 1>I think part of the job that we have as

0:18:36.560 --> 0:18:40.240
<v Speaker 1>industry is to really create a lot of educational materials

0:18:40.320 --> 0:18:43.080
<v Speaker 1>and to really gain the focus and the attention of

0:18:43.119 --> 0:18:45.680
<v Speaker 1>folks around the good things that are happening in with

0:18:45.720 --> 0:18:48.359
<v Speaker 1>respect to blockchain and crypto. You know, on stellar we

0:18:48.440 --> 0:18:52.440
<v Speaker 1>see a lot of really big promise and execution when

0:18:52.440 --> 0:18:54.840
<v Speaker 1>we see the use of stable coins in payments. We

0:18:54.880 --> 0:18:57.399
<v Speaker 1>have a relationship with moneygram where you can turn cash

0:18:57.440 --> 0:19:02.000
<v Speaker 1>into crypto in four locations globally, and this really reaches

0:19:02.000 --> 0:19:04.400
<v Speaker 1>the unbanked and the underbank and so I think if

0:19:04.400 --> 0:19:06.560
<v Speaker 1>we really talk about what the good things that are

0:19:06.560 --> 0:19:09.600
<v Speaker 1>happening in the CRYPTO and blockchain industry, it actually will

0:19:09.600 --> 0:19:12.800
<v Speaker 1>help move that conversation away to talking about things like

0:19:12.800 --> 0:19:16.280
<v Speaker 1>pondy schemes, because I think that you know, when any time,

0:19:16.280 --> 0:19:18.679
<v Speaker 1>when you have a new piece of technology, there's going

0:19:18.720 --> 0:19:20.760
<v Speaker 1>to be a lot of criticism and potential concern of

0:19:20.800 --> 0:19:23.040
<v Speaker 1>it and we really need to get to the discussion

0:19:23.040 --> 0:19:25.960
<v Speaker 1>around use cases, which will kind of obliterate that message.

0:19:26.640 --> 0:19:30.080
<v Speaker 1>And now really quickly. We have about thirty seconds or so,

0:19:30.080 --> 0:19:33.000
<v Speaker 1>but you've said clarity a few times and we need clarity.

0:19:33.320 --> 0:19:36.159
<v Speaker 1>WHO NEEDS CLARITY. Is it just the industry or is

0:19:36.200 --> 0:19:40.600
<v Speaker 1>it traditional finance, Trad Five, as well? Yeah, I know,

0:19:40.680 --> 0:19:43.400
<v Speaker 1>I love that. Trad Fi um. That's another, another word

0:19:43.440 --> 0:19:45.000
<v Speaker 1>that we like to hear. I think it's everybody. We

0:19:45.040 --> 0:19:47.520
<v Speaker 1>all need clarity to bring Trad fit in so that

0:19:47.560 --> 0:19:50.800
<v Speaker 1>we can actually really make this this technology work in

0:19:50.840 --> 0:19:53.000
<v Speaker 1>the way that it should, which is in coordination with

0:19:53.080 --> 0:19:55.919
<v Speaker 1>traditional finance, to really bring to the masses, uh, the

0:19:55.960 --> 0:19:59.080
<v Speaker 1>opportunity that exists with watching. All right, you know, we're

0:19:59.080 --> 0:20:01.439
<v Speaker 1>going to have to leave it there. Tonal Dixon, CEO

0:20:01.600 --> 0:20:05.400
<v Speaker 1>and Executive Director of the Stellar Development Foundation, joining us

0:20:05.560 --> 0:20:09.440
<v Speaker 1>this afternoon on the phone from the bay area. I'm

0:20:12.880 --> 0:20:16.359
<v Speaker 1>a journal Yeah, but you let me drive. Oh No,

0:20:16.359 --> 0:20:22.760
<v Speaker 1>no, no no, no, please, I'll do bride gravel. I want

0:20:22.760 --> 0:20:31.399
<v Speaker 1>to drive. It's good question. This is the drive to

0:20:31.480 --> 0:20:38.080
<v Speaker 1>the globe on Bluebird radio. All right, it's that time.

0:20:38.119 --> 0:20:40.000
<v Speaker 1>We are less than ten minutes away from the close

0:20:40.040 --> 0:20:42.520
<v Speaker 1>of Equity Trading here on this Friday afternoon. What a

0:20:42.600 --> 0:20:44.560
<v Speaker 1>day it's been, what a week it has been. The

0:20:44.640 --> 0:20:46.760
<v Speaker 1>SMP five hunded off of its lowest but still down

0:20:46.840 --> 0:20:51.280
<v Speaker 1>about two in the SP five, energy by far the

0:20:51.359 --> 0:20:54.840
<v Speaker 1>worst performing sector down close to seven percent this after

0:20:55.040 --> 0:20:58.000
<v Speaker 1>we saw that w t I fell below eighty dollars

0:20:58.000 --> 0:21:01.119
<v Speaker 1>for the first time since January. Let's get into it

0:21:01.320 --> 0:21:04.080
<v Speaker 1>and specifically energy. We do that with Ben Cook, portfolio

0:21:04.119 --> 0:21:08.000
<v Speaker 1>manager at Hennessy Midstream and energy transition funds. Ben Joining

0:21:08.040 --> 0:21:10.640
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from Dallas, Texas this afternoon. Ben,

0:21:10.640 --> 0:21:13.600
<v Speaker 1>How are you? I'm doing well. Thanks, how are you?

0:21:13.680 --> 0:21:15.760
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for having me, by the way. Yeah, we're really

0:21:15.760 --> 0:21:17.320
<v Speaker 1>glad to have you, especially on a day like today,

0:21:17.359 --> 0:21:20.239
<v Speaker 1>because we definitely want to talk energy. What's going on

0:21:20.240 --> 0:21:21.679
<v Speaker 1>in the energy market? I mean it is just just

0:21:21.720 --> 0:21:25.439
<v Speaker 1>flashing recession fear all over you know, I think it is.

0:21:25.600 --> 0:21:28.679
<v Speaker 1>I think you know, the prospect of monetary tightening around

0:21:28.680 --> 0:21:31.679
<v Speaker 1>the world is leading to a view that we're going

0:21:31.720 --> 0:21:34.280
<v Speaker 1>to have to see some slowdown and economic activity or

0:21:34.280 --> 0:21:37.879
<v Speaker 1>worser recession, and I think that's added to fears with

0:21:38.040 --> 0:21:42.400
<v Speaker 1>China's zero covid lockdown policy, which has had a material

0:21:42.440 --> 0:21:46.640
<v Speaker 1>impact on transportation fuel demand in that region of the world.

0:21:46.720 --> 0:21:48.960
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think that's all contributing to a narrative

0:21:49.040 --> 0:21:52.320
<v Speaker 1>that the market may not be as tight as previously thought,

0:21:52.400 --> 0:21:55.760
<v Speaker 1>but that's leading to fears of further weakness and crewed.

0:21:56.640 --> 0:22:00.520
<v Speaker 1>And where does that leave you in terms of conviction here?

0:22:00.960 --> 0:22:03.600
<v Speaker 1>I mean, would you expect a rebound or how long

0:22:03.680 --> 0:22:08.600
<v Speaker 1>might this current slump in energy last? You know, that's

0:22:08.600 --> 0:22:10.639
<v Speaker 1>a that's a great question. You know, we do have

0:22:10.680 --> 0:22:13.520
<v Speaker 1>a favorable view of the commodity as we approached the

0:22:13.600 --> 0:22:16.360
<v Speaker 1>fourth quarter and in the next year, and I think

0:22:16.359 --> 0:22:18.480
<v Speaker 1>the demand fears are front and center and that's what

0:22:18.520 --> 0:22:22.000
<v Speaker 1>we're dealing with today. But there are significant issues on

0:22:22.000 --> 0:22:24.240
<v Speaker 1>the supply side as well that, in our view, will

0:22:24.320 --> 0:22:27.040
<v Speaker 1>will continue to provide some support to the commodity. And

0:22:27.480 --> 0:22:30.879
<v Speaker 1>you know, those points are several fold. I think you

0:22:30.920 --> 0:22:33.480
<v Speaker 1>could if you look at inventories, not just crude oil

0:22:33.520 --> 0:22:37.359
<v Speaker 1>but refined products on the global basis were below historical

0:22:37.400 --> 0:22:42.480
<v Speaker 1>seasonal norms. OPEC is continuing to underproduce its targeted quota

0:22:42.600 --> 0:22:46.120
<v Speaker 1>levels and, of course we're seeing a good financial discipline

0:22:46.119 --> 0:22:48.359
<v Speaker 1>here in the United States by our our producers and

0:22:48.359 --> 0:22:51.320
<v Speaker 1>that's limiting production growth here on a on a near

0:22:51.440 --> 0:22:53.840
<v Speaker 1>term basis, will have the spr draws come to a

0:22:53.920 --> 0:22:57.000
<v Speaker 1>close in in November and of course we've got embargoes

0:22:57.080 --> 0:23:01.280
<v Speaker 1>on Russian oil exports into the you in December and

0:23:01.880 --> 0:23:06.040
<v Speaker 1>refined product embargoes in February. So on a short term

0:23:06.040 --> 0:23:09.600
<v Speaker 1>basis there's some supply uh support to be had, I think.

0:23:09.600 --> 0:23:11.760
<v Speaker 1>On a near term basis, then, did the did the

0:23:11.880 --> 0:23:16.600
<v Speaker 1>SPR did tapping the SPR as President Biden chose to do?

0:23:16.920 --> 0:23:21.399
<v Speaker 1>Did that have an effect on the energy market? You know,

0:23:21.480 --> 0:23:23.879
<v Speaker 1>I think it did. I mean the on a on

0:23:23.920 --> 0:23:25.800
<v Speaker 1>a month to month basis. Actually, in a week to

0:23:25.840 --> 0:23:28.800
<v Speaker 1>week basis, you know, we were seeing the addition of,

0:23:29.320 --> 0:23:31.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, upwards of five or six million barrels and

0:23:31.840 --> 0:23:35.240
<v Speaker 1>even more some weeks added to those sly here in

0:23:35.240 --> 0:23:39.080
<v Speaker 1>the US, and that certainly put pressure on on crew prices.

0:23:39.359 --> 0:23:43.000
<v Speaker 1>I think once those draws come to a close, once

0:23:43.080 --> 0:23:46.879
<v Speaker 1>we eliminate that additional incremental barrel from the market, it

0:23:47.440 --> 0:23:50.840
<v Speaker 1>certainly will add to support, some support to pricing. And

0:23:50.880 --> 0:23:53.600
<v Speaker 1>then when I look over the course of this year

0:23:53.680 --> 0:23:56.800
<v Speaker 1>at the sector level, energy, by far, the energy sector,

0:23:57.040 --> 0:24:00.959
<v Speaker 1>is the winner. Uh, still up about twenty sent for

0:24:01.000 --> 0:24:03.600
<v Speaker 1>the year, but I remember when that number was closer

0:24:04.200 --> 0:24:05.959
<v Speaker 1>year to date and I would love to hear your

0:24:05.960 --> 0:24:08.439
<v Speaker 1>perspective on you know, if you look at energy stocks

0:24:08.440 --> 0:24:11.280
<v Speaker 1>specifically the sector, have we seen the high water mark,

0:24:13.119 --> 0:24:15.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, for the year. I think going into the

0:24:15.600 --> 0:24:19.360
<v Speaker 1>fourth quarter will probably be quite volatile. As we enter

0:24:19.400 --> 0:24:22.600
<v Speaker 1>the winter heating demand period. We could see some volatility

0:24:22.600 --> 0:24:27.720
<v Speaker 1>in commodities, which would lead to volatility in equity values. Um,

0:24:27.920 --> 0:24:30.359
<v Speaker 1>it's hard to see the commodity retracing back to the

0:24:30.400 --> 0:24:33.880
<v Speaker 1>previous peak of one plots over the next couple of months,

0:24:33.880 --> 0:24:37.360
<v Speaker 1>given the headwinds we're seeing today. Um. But, as I said,

0:24:37.480 --> 0:24:39.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, there's a good reason to believe that support

0:24:39.480 --> 0:24:41.960
<v Speaker 1>on the supply side recruit and for natural gas for

0:24:42.080 --> 0:24:44.720
<v Speaker 1>that matter, which we have a very favorable view of

0:24:44.800 --> 0:24:48.000
<v Speaker 1>natural gas pricing in the next year, that that will

0:24:48.040 --> 0:24:50.560
<v Speaker 1>add some buoyancy and support into pricing. So, while we

0:24:50.640 --> 0:24:53.520
<v Speaker 1>might not retrace back to previous highs, we do feel

0:24:53.560 --> 0:24:55.280
<v Speaker 1>like there's a good reason to believe that there's good

0:24:55.320 --> 0:24:58.880
<v Speaker 1>outperformance relative to other sectors in the marketplace to come

0:24:58.920 --> 0:25:01.800
<v Speaker 1>here the NE twelve or fifteen months. So, Ben What

0:25:01.840 --> 0:25:03.240
<v Speaker 1>are you doing on a day like today? Are you

0:25:03.280 --> 0:25:09.280
<v Speaker 1>are you sitting on your hands? Are you buying? You know, Um, always, uh. Now,

0:25:09.320 --> 0:25:13.880
<v Speaker 1>we're we're always monitoring commodity price volatility and its impact

0:25:14.080 --> 0:25:18.720
<v Speaker 1>on equity values as a part of our repeatable investment process.

0:25:18.720 --> 0:25:22.200
<v Speaker 1>And managing the Hennessy Energy Transition Fund. We look at

0:25:22.440 --> 0:25:25.159
<v Speaker 1>what a range of commodity price scenarios and what it

0:25:25.240 --> 0:25:28.400
<v Speaker 1>might mean for the relative upside and downside and equity

0:25:28.520 --> 0:25:31.119
<v Speaker 1>values and from for us. And when we look at

0:25:31.160 --> 0:25:34.000
<v Speaker 1>equity values particularly, and we're taking the upstream sector in

0:25:34.040 --> 0:25:38.480
<v Speaker 1>the US, we see an imputed price deck of roughly

0:25:38.800 --> 0:25:41.840
<v Speaker 1>sixty five to seventy dollars per barrel implied by the

0:25:41.920 --> 0:25:45.400
<v Speaker 1>current equity values across much of the upstream sector. So

0:25:45.960 --> 0:25:50.399
<v Speaker 1>with the commodity on three basis the script, they're roughly

0:25:50.720 --> 0:25:53.000
<v Speaker 1>in the seventy five to seventy six dollar range. We

0:25:53.040 --> 0:25:56.160
<v Speaker 1>think the equity values are right now, or even though

0:25:56.160 --> 0:26:00.119
<v Speaker 1>they're down five, they're pricing in a much die air

0:26:00.200 --> 0:26:04.240
<v Speaker 1>scenario than what's currently reflected in the commodity market. So again,

0:26:04.280 --> 0:26:08.480
<v Speaker 1>evaluation on that basis is attractive. We look at Um

0:26:09.040 --> 0:26:11.520
<v Speaker 1>the free cash shields have been very, very strong in

0:26:11.520 --> 0:26:14.919
<v Speaker 1>the sector, even with a dial down and commodity prices,

0:26:14.960 --> 0:26:17.840
<v Speaker 1>as we've seen over the recent weeks, we still see

0:26:17.960 --> 0:26:21.360
<v Speaker 1>very attractive free cash yield out of the sector. So

0:26:21.640 --> 0:26:24.280
<v Speaker 1>on a day like today we're monitoring the portfolio, but

0:26:24.359 --> 0:26:26.440
<v Speaker 1>we still believe very strongly in the outlook for the

0:26:26.480 --> 0:26:29.399
<v Speaker 1>commodity and the financial returns and performance in the stoff.

0:26:29.680 --> 0:26:33.040
<v Speaker 1>I should note that the Hennessy Midstream Fund has a

0:26:33.080 --> 0:26:36.840
<v Speaker 1>year today performance of compared with the s and p five,

0:26:37.400 --> 0:26:41.000
<v Speaker 1>which is down about yeah, energy, it's been a pretty

0:26:41.000 --> 0:26:43.520
<v Speaker 1>good place to hang out. Ben, we only have about

0:26:43.520 --> 0:26:45.359
<v Speaker 1>forty scents left with you, but I know you have

0:26:45.480 --> 0:26:50.919
<v Speaker 1>some specific names that you're pretty bullishawn. What are they? YEA,

0:26:50.960 --> 0:26:53.800
<v Speaker 1>as I mentioned, uh, we like the upstream sector here

0:26:53.840 --> 0:26:57.440
<v Speaker 1>in the US, select integrated companies. We do like Exxon.

0:26:57.560 --> 0:27:01.480
<v Speaker 1>We think they're integrated business how to affords flexibility to

0:27:01.560 --> 0:27:06.240
<v Speaker 1>benefit from a variety of cyclical environments. Um they've shown

0:27:06.280 --> 0:27:09.920
<v Speaker 1>some good strength and in upstream results exploration in Guyana

0:27:09.960 --> 0:27:12.959
<v Speaker 1>and development activity in West Texas. We think they're going

0:27:12.960 --> 0:27:16.320
<v Speaker 1>to continue to generate very strong financial results and continue

0:27:16.320 --> 0:27:19.959
<v Speaker 1>to buy back shares. We like excellent EO G resources.

0:27:20.000 --> 0:27:24.000
<v Speaker 1>Another name that we like, the US producer. They've got

0:27:24.040 --> 0:27:26.920
<v Speaker 1>a great acreage in the lower us, lower fort l

0:27:27.760 --> 0:27:33.000
<v Speaker 1>plays and demonstrated an acumen for optimizing production gains and

0:27:33.080 --> 0:27:37.400
<v Speaker 1>efficiencies and that's translated to good sharehold return and so forth. Ben,

0:27:37.600 --> 0:27:39.840
<v Speaker 1>we unfortunately have to leave it there. Ben We love

0:27:39.880 --> 0:27:41.640
<v Speaker 1>having you on the program please do come back soon.

0:27:41.680 --> 0:27:44.880
<v Speaker 1>Ben Cook, portfolio manager at Hennessey Midstream and energy transition funds,

0:27:44.920 --> 0:27:48.600
<v Speaker 1>joining us from Dallas, Texas. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg

0:27:48.600 --> 0:27:52.240
<v Speaker 1>Business Week. Download the podcast on Itunes, soundcloud or Bloomberg

0:27:52.359 --> 0:27:54.200
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