Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane along
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jailey. We bring you
Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations.
Speaker 1: To find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot Com,
Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. We will rip
Speaker 1: up the script here. We are honored to bring you
Speaker 1: Ian Bremer today with Eurisia Group. His top ten wrists
Speaker 1: did not include rudeness in Alaska, but nevertheless that's what
Speaker 1: we need to focus on, and we're hugely advantaged that
Speaker 1: Dr Bremer could join us this morning, Ian Bremer. At
Speaker 1: the Geneva Conference of nineteen fifty four, the Secretary of
Speaker 1: State of the United States refused to shake hands with
Speaker 1: a gentleman from China. We then moved on and oscillated
Speaker 1: to the wonder man of Ping Pong diplomacy of nineteen
Speaker 1: seventy one. What was the Pingong diplomacy? Across those two
Speaker 1: tables that we witnessed yesterday, most important bilateral relationship in
Speaker 1: the world, also the most challenging for the Americans to manage,
Speaker 1: certainly one of the more dysfunctional. And it shows that
Speaker 1: Biden and the Biden administration have been talking about China
Speaker 1: and operating largely in a vacuum over the first fifty days. Uh.
Speaker 1: And that's, as a consequence, been very easy to talk
Speaker 1: up how tough they're gonna be on China, and now
Speaker 1: they're actually engaged with China, and the Chinese government is
Speaker 1: having none of it, right. I mean, their their belief
Speaker 1: that they don't need to be talked down to by
Speaker 1: a group of American Exceptional is the Chinese belief that
Speaker 1: their system is every bit as valid as legitimate, and
Speaker 1: the Americans don't believe that, right, So that that's that's
Speaker 1: pretty core, It's pretty fundamental. What is the debris here
Speaker 1: of Trump Pompeo? Do you link the two or is
Speaker 1: this separate? In discreet to maybe the transfer from Obama
Speaker 1: to Biden. They're very similar in terms of orientation of
Speaker 1: actual policy issues, whether you're talking about Taiwan or Hong
Speaker 1: Kong or the South China see or intellectual property theft
Speaker 1: or cyber um or or trade. Uh. There's not an
Speaker 1: awful lot of daylight between what the Biden administration is
Speaker 1: concerned about and what the Trump administration is concerned about
Speaker 1: when we can cherry pick a few issues where you
Speaker 1: see some differences, even the leaguers where Trump never talked
Speaker 1: about human rights, but the actual policy under Trump Biden
Speaker 1: very similar. Where you see an enormous difference is that
Speaker 1: Number one, the Biden administration is trying to work very
Speaker 1: deliberately with allies in advance, trying to coordinate US China
Speaker 1: policy with the Quad, and that means the core allies
Speaker 1: in Asia, not including South Korea because Japan has a
Speaker 1: problem with the South Koreans, but Australia, Japan, and India,
Speaker 1: and also core allies in Europe, the EU three less
Speaker 1: successfully because the Europeans do not view China the way
Speaker 1: the Americans do, and that of course is the UK, France,
Speaker 1: and Germany. None of that coordination was happening under Trump.
Speaker 1: The other big difference between Biden and Trump is that
Speaker 1: the Biden administration is actually having a policy review. What's
Speaker 1: that with principles across the cabinet that are actually trying
Speaker 1: to work out a strategic policy that then Biden will
Speaker 1: discuss with the principles and make a calculated, calibrated decision
Speaker 1: on how they're gonna roll that out. Uh, you know,
Speaker 1: this was a Trump was a game time quarterback. He
Speaker 1: sees an opportunity, he throws the ball. He's not waiting
Speaker 1: to see what kind of a review is going to
Speaker 1: happen from his you know, various members of cabinet who
Speaker 1: obviously aren't his right shouldn't be listened to the way
Speaker 1: his judgment carries. So it is quite different in terms
Speaker 1: of how you operationalize what those those relatively similar core policies.
Speaker 1: So an approach is going to be different, an emphasis
Speaker 1: will be different too. So let's talk about approach just briefly.
Speaker 1: And I think you mentioned the most important aspect of
Speaker 1: trying to get a multilateral approach together. That was just
Speaker 1: Europe West Germany on this. Where is Europe on this?
Speaker 1: And is there actually any space there to get Europe
Speaker 1: on board. The Europeans are of course more aligned with
Speaker 1: the United States than they are with China. But the
Speaker 1: Europeans are making very clear that if the United States
Speaker 1: is heading towards a policy of containment with China, they
Speaker 1: are not on for that. I want to be clear.
Speaker 1: In the United States, it is an absolute core national
Speaker 1: security agree men across the political spectrum that China is
Speaker 1: the most critical adversary of the United States. The Europeans
Speaker 1: don't buy that at all. China is not their core adversary.
Speaker 1: Uh And and that's our real problem, and that is
Speaker 1: going to get harder to bridge because of Brexit, because
Speaker 1: the United Kingdom is the European country that is most
Speaker 1: aligned with the United States and national security orientation. In
Speaker 1: diplomatic orientation, they are no longer, of course, a member
Speaker 1: of the European Union, and their relationship with the EU
Speaker 1: is increasingly fraught. And also Angela Merkel, who is sort
Speaker 1: of the voice of stability and reason and multilateralism in
Speaker 1: trying to keep the Americans and Europeans on side, is
Speaker 1: losing power, is leaving power, and the next coalition in
Speaker 1: Germany is likely to be a bit weaker mccrown. Emmanuel
Speaker 1: Macron is is going to be the most important strategic
Speaker 1: voice of foreign policy in the continent, and his orientation
Speaker 1: is all about strategic autonomy, European sovereignty, a third way.
Speaker 1: It is going to be very, very challenging, I'll tell you. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know, the markets have been talking about how there's
Speaker 1: a honeymoon between Biden and the Europeans and certainly, the
Speaker 1: Europeans are much happier to see Biden than Trump. But
Speaker 1: I would argue that even though the decoupling of the
Speaker 1: US and Europe has decelerated under Biden, it is continuing,
Speaker 1: and it's continuing for structural and strategic reasons, irrespective of
Speaker 1: the fact that Biden and his core team are fundamentally
Speaker 1: Transatlanticist at heart. Not just the issue of a China,
Speaker 1: also the issue of a Russia as well, with Germany
Speaker 1: looking lonely increasingly so over the last couple of days.
Speaker 1: And let's finish on this, why do you see a
Speaker 1: space for success? What can this administration achieve on the
Speaker 1: foreign policy upfront with regards specifically to China. Um, the
Speaker 1: United States and China are massively interdependent in terms of trade,
Speaker 1: in terms of their purchasing of our treasuries, in terms
Speaker 1: of the global economy, and responding to things like climate change,
Speaker 1: and and so the simple fact that that relationship persists
Speaker 1: in a relatively stable way. I mean, you might not
Speaker 1: consider that points on the board, but frankly it's important
Speaker 1: in terms of progress or very far from progress. But
Speaker 1: what you want to watch for, and you anticipated this
Speaker 1: in your last segment what's gonna happen around Earth Day? Um,
Speaker 1: what's gonna happen around John Kerry, who's in many ways
Speaker 1: the most important new appointment of the entire Biden cabinet
Speaker 1: Former Secretary of State John Kerry. Uh, you know, there
Speaker 1: there is no question that if you are going to
Speaker 1: resolve or even make significant progress in global climate, the
Speaker 1: two largest carbon emitters in the world need to have
Speaker 1: some willingness to work together. That is going to its taller,
Speaker 1: but it's also a critical concern of both countries. We
Speaker 1: will see where it goes and always great to catch
Speaker 1: up right to see it in Bremen that he writes
Speaker 1: a Greazra media president. Someone who has been very visible
Speaker 1: from the beginning of this terrible natural disaster, Peter Hotez,
Speaker 1: Baylor College of Medicine, joins us right now in Dan
Speaker 1: of the National School of Tropical Medicine. Dr Hotez, would
Speaker 1: you take the astro zenica vaccine right now? Yes? I would.
Speaker 1: In fact, I've offered to do that. And the reason
Speaker 1: is this, Uh, you know, the Europeans have been quite
Speaker 1: tone deaf to how sensitive vaccines are at the public
Speaker 1: perception is or is I often like to say it
Speaker 1: doesn't take much to vote even a good vaccine off
Speaker 1: the island if the public doesn't feel confident. And the
Speaker 1: way the individual European countries have handled this has has
Speaker 1: been abysmal. So the e M A statement of the
Speaker 1: European Medicine Agencies, which is the regular very body in
Speaker 1: Europe statement yesterday is important, but that's not going to
Speaker 1: be enough for all the for all the damage control
Speaker 1: that's going to be needed. That statement that the German
Speaker 1: Institute made the Paul Earlik Institute, which is their regulatory body,
Speaker 1: was just so damning. And and the fact that the
Speaker 1: French suspended its use with oblivious to the impact that
Speaker 1: would have on Francophone Africa, because the Francophone Africa very
Speaker 1: much gets its guidance from from France. Um, this is
Speaker 1: I'm really worried. I'm really worried about what's going to
Speaker 1: happen in the coming weeks. I have noticed in a
Speaker 1: James Moore Burns Murdock at the f to a major
Speaker 1: shout out Brazil and Latin America seems to be unraveling.
Speaker 1: To me, India's a statistical mystery as well. Are we
Speaker 1: winning in this battle with a pandemic or are we
Speaker 1: deluding ourselves. Well, what you really have to do is
Speaker 1: go a country to country. I think you know in
Speaker 1: the US we're slowly getting our arms around this. We're
Speaker 1: in a race with the B one one seven variant
Speaker 1: from the UK with faccine. The American people, UM, the
Speaker 1: next few weeks are absolutely going to be critical. UM.
Speaker 1: Africa is UH doesn't have vaccine. That's that's going to
Speaker 1: be That's a that's a disaster in the making. Latin
Speaker 1: America doesn't have vaccine. That's a disaster in the making. UH.
Speaker 1: Indias is doing what it can to step up to
Speaker 1: prepe to be the vaccine supplier for the world's low
Speaker 1: and middle income countries. UH that that's a positive. Russia
Speaker 1: and China have largely bypassed international regulatory authorities like WHR
Speaker 1: prequalification and making these one off deals with countries. That's
Speaker 1: a disaster. So it's a very very complicated and mixed
Speaker 1: picture right now. So I have to follow up on
Speaker 1: something you've brought up, and I'm embarrassed to say I
Speaker 1: haven't even thought about it. How the issues in France
Speaker 1: around this vaccine would spill over culturally to the issues
Speaker 1: in Africa as well. When you say we could see
Speaker 1: a disaster, can you describe what that disaster would look like? Well,
Speaker 1: the disaster is it looks like the South African variant
Speaker 1: to be one three one is accelerating now up into Malawi, Mozambique,
Speaker 1: and even though Africa overall has done better than many
Speaker 1: expected during that grace period, could end as this virus
Speaker 1: starts to accelerate and they're not. And the world has
Speaker 1: been very focused on very high tech innovations uh m
Speaker 1: RNA vaccines that will never filter or I don't think
Speaker 1: we'll filter to the low and middle income countries. Yes,
Speaker 1: fiser By in Tech sent sent two hundred and thirty
Speaker 1: five thousand doses to Rwanda. That was great, but look
Speaker 1: at the need. There are one point one billion people
Speaker 1: living in Sub Saharan Africa. If we need two doses
Speaker 1: of most of those vaccines has two billion doses. So
Speaker 1: so far it's a drop in the bucket and there's
Speaker 1: no real plan for what we do. We're trying to
Speaker 1: accelerate a low cost recommin and protein vaccine with another
Speaker 1: Indian producer biologically and that's going really well, so hopefully
Speaker 1: we can fill that gap, but that that's a potentially
Speaker 1: humanitarian crisis right there. For receiving sufficient funding to do
Speaker 1: that delta, uh no, I mean we had to raise
Speaker 1: a lot of that money privately from from various sources
Speaker 1: and here in Texas enough to do the technology transfer
Speaker 1: to uh India. And now we're in discussions with South
Speaker 1: Africa and Indonesia, so hopefully that will come through. But
Speaker 1: you know, everybody was went very heavy on the innovation
Speaker 1: um and and and innovation is important. We need to
Speaker 1: innovate in vaccines, but you know, at a certain stage
Speaker 1: you need some traditional, low caust durable vaccines for low
Speaker 1: and middle income countries. And and there was not enough
Speaker 1: attention paid to that. Peter Hotels, thank you so much.
Speaker 1: I noticed your bookshelf behind you. No doubt Walter Isaacson's
Speaker 1: new book on genetics will take a place there as well.
Speaker 1: The heritage that John and I have is to talk
Speaker 1: to experts. And if you know the name cow and
Speaker 1: you know they own aviation with a legendary Von Rumor
Speaker 1: and the ever so younger Lane Becker, they have been
Speaker 1: at the top of the heap on airline analysis. And
Speaker 1: we're thrilled on Lane Becker could join us this morning. Helene.
Speaker 1: Within your note is the rollout you are guessing at,
Speaker 1: which is can Koon at some point, and then we're
Speaker 1: gonna John off to Paris as they go into lockdown
Speaker 1: this weekend, and somewhere way out in two thousand twenty two,
Speaker 1: we're gonna be able to go to Asia. Can the
Speaker 1: airlines wait that long? Are the airlines in control of
Speaker 1: their destiny? I think they are and and and it's
Speaker 1: good to see you again, Tom and John iced to
Speaker 1: talk to you guys. Um. I think they are in
Speaker 1: control of their own destiny at this point. Over the
Speaker 1: past week, we've regularly seen more than a million people
Speaker 1: a day passed through t s A, and we thought
Speaker 1: that that would be the case till about mid May,
Speaker 1: and then around Memorial Day weekend, we we think there
Speaker 1: will be a jail break and we'll see regularly between
Speaker 1: one point one and one point five million people a day,
Speaker 1: And frankly, we think that's pretty close to pre pandemic
Speaker 1: levels in domestic traffic. People don't want to go, people
Speaker 1: don't want to quarantine, especially, you know, if you only
Speaker 1: have a week or two a vacation, you really don't
Speaker 1: want to stay in a hotel room somewhere or come back.
Speaker 1: And so we need to see those quarantines lifted. And
Speaker 1: our view has been as more vaccine gets into people's arms,
Speaker 1: we think that will happen. I think New York is
Speaker 1: lift in quarantine rules this weekend, and I think I
Speaker 1: think things will start to get better. And I do
Speaker 1: think the airlines will benefit from domestic traffic. Do they
Speaker 1: have the empty planes to bring on capacity? Is it
Speaker 1: an easy exercise for sake Delta to bring on new
Speaker 1: planes or do they just packed the planes as they
Speaker 1: did pre pandemic. Yes, yes to both. So in Delta's
Speaker 1: case specifically because you asked about them, they are not
Speaker 1: selling middle seats until after April. So when you think
Speaker 1: about at as demand improves, they'll bring back those middle
Speaker 1: seats and that's about at increase in capacity without adding
Speaker 1: a single aircraft. And then for the other airlines that
Speaker 1: we're seeing, um that that that parked aircraft in the
Speaker 1: desert last year, those aircraft will start to come back
Speaker 1: as demand warrants. I think the airlines are trying not
Speaker 1: to get too far over their skis. I don't see
Speaker 1: them bringing back wide body aircraft this summer in in
Speaker 1: huge measure because Europe is still for most most of
Speaker 1: Europe is still closed. Um. But we when when Boris
Speaker 1: Johnson announced his plan for reopening the UK and mid May,
Speaker 1: easy Jet saw three and thirty seven percent three percent
Speaker 1: increase in bookings that night. I know, and because people
Speaker 1: are sick of being home and cooped up and they
Speaker 1: want to get out and about, and we're we're worried
Speaker 1: about Europe. Um, then we are about US air alliance
Speaker 1: because of that, because Europe has been so locked down.
Speaker 1: And I think also people people don't want to wear
Speaker 1: a mask for eight or ten hour flights. As you know,
Speaker 1: that's totally done with this. So what's amazing. Before we
Speaker 1: move on and just speed onto the boom in the
Speaker 1: United States, we've got to look back on where we were.
Speaker 1: I remember talking to them in the depths of this crisis.
Speaker 1: It felt depressing. It was depressing the likes of Warren Buffett,
Speaker 1: a legendary investor, dumped his airline stocks in April last year,
Speaker 1: and Berkshire Hathaway said the world has changed, and Helene,
Speaker 1: so many people got this wrong because so much is
Speaker 1: coming back so quickly. Why is it so difficult to
Speaker 1: get a read on this industry. It always has been
Speaker 1: for for the whatever. For almost four decades that I've
Speaker 1: covered this industry, it's been very up and down, two
Speaker 1: or three good years, maybe one great year and then
Speaker 1: four or five so so or bad years. It's so
Speaker 1: cyclical and so dependent on consumer discretionary spending. And then
Speaker 1: of course business traffic, which you're kind of alluding to here. Um,
Speaker 1: in the million people a day we're seeing, we're really
Speaker 1: not seeing much business traffic. Maybe small and medium sized
Speaker 1: companies who need to get out on the road to
Speaker 1: generate revenue, but we're really not seeing corporate business traffic
Speaker 1: come back yet. They're still worried about getting their people
Speaker 1: back to work. But we think that's a fourth quarter
Speaker 1: of twenty one event where people will start to get
Speaker 1: back on the road. Um, we think maybe of the
Speaker 1: way back by your end twenty two, and then maybe
Speaker 1: the other comes back over three to twenty six or seven.
Speaker 1: So let's talk about opportunities then, because right now everyone's
Speaker 1: on board with the domestic story here in America. Everyone's
Speaker 1: on board with return of travel, everyone's on board with
Speaker 1: the likes of Alaska nicely leverage to that story. Hellong,
Speaker 1: when we start to talk about the New York London
Speaker 1: corridor reopening, the European story reopening, is there an opportunity
Speaker 1: there now or have we already missed that too? Oh No,
Speaker 1: I don't think we've staid at all. I think UM
Speaker 1: United is the most leverage to international traffic of their
Speaker 1: capacity as an international bigger than both American and Delta.
Speaker 1: So I think that that international corridor starts to come back,
Speaker 1: probably September October. I'm kind of hoping the summer because
Speaker 1: all of US canceled many trips to Europe last year,
Speaker 1: and I think we want to go back. And I
Speaker 1: think that by the end of the summer enough vaccine
Speaker 1: will be in people's arms worldwide that we'll be able
Speaker 1: to see that start to reopen. But just start, hell
Speaker 1: And you know, I love catching up with you. It's
Speaker 1: great to get you on the program. The City Research Analyst,
Speaker 1: thank you for being with us. Brian Leavitt ordered by
Speaker 1: his general counsel not to talk about bitcoin and joins
Speaker 1: US market strategist as well well. Avoid it. Brian, there
Speaker 1: was a theory two or three levels ago about international
Speaker 1: investment and a recovering Pacific RIM, dove chilling e m.
Speaker 1: Disappointments of the last couple of days and weeks with
Speaker 1: what we observe the tension and anchorage yesterday. How is
Speaker 1: the Pacific RIM doing? Yes, so I child actually has
Speaker 1: emerged from this, as most people know, in quite good shape.
Speaker 1: You're right, the economy is is quite stable, their valuations
Speaker 1: look attractive, and that place is still a hotbed of innovation,
Speaker 1: although you know some concerns about the regulatory environment. I
Speaker 1: think the the story right now has just all been
Speaker 1: has been all about the United States, the rates market,
Speaker 1: expectations of whether the Fed's going to have to raise
Speaker 1: rates sooner rather than later. So it put a floora
Speaker 1: in the dollar. Color moves a bit. You get some
Speaker 1: capital flight out of the emerging markets, concerned that this
Speaker 1: is all over again and we have the tantrum. I
Speaker 1: think those concerns are are overstated. This is a this
Speaker 1: is a reversion to the mean in the United States.
Speaker 1: We want to connect the dots cross the He's Alaska Aerolines,
Speaker 1: John and NonStop. This is some anchors to Minneapolis and
Speaker 1: John Again, it's just that feeling of the opening up
Speaker 1: of the economy. One of the top picks over a
Speaker 1: Goldman because it's so leverage to the domestic play, to
Speaker 1: the leisure story as well. Brian, I think you've picked
Speaker 1: up on the irony at the moment perfectly. In year one,
Speaker 1: investors question how markets can go up with the economy
Speaker 1: is so challenged, your line, your words. In year two,
Speaker 1: the question if the market can go up if the
Speaker 1: economy is so good, And Brian, I've heard people ask it.
Speaker 1: I've asked it, boom year it's coming. Can we really
Speaker 1: have a boom year in the market that doesn't perform well?
Speaker 1: I think the markets will perform well. I mean it's
Speaker 1: gonna be a more volatile year. You find year two
Speaker 1: of a market cycle tends to be more challenging. We
Speaker 1: saw that in three, We saw that in it's those
Speaker 1: second years to to what you know you have just said,
Speaker 1: we questioned whether it's too good. The reality is, we
Speaker 1: know there's a lot of pent up to man, we
Speaker 1: know there's a lot of fiscal support, and we know
Speaker 1: we're going to have a good economic backdrop. The problem
Speaker 1: isn't raises concerns about policy. And when you have concerns
Speaker 1: about policy, that's when you get volatility in the markets.
Speaker 1: But let's remember this is what we all hoped for
Speaker 1: a year ago, and we're seeing earnings improved, the economy improved.
Speaker 1: I think inflation pressures will will rear their head, but
Speaker 1: I think they ultimately fade as we move out beyond Well,
Speaker 1: let's move out beyond twenty one. This cycle moves quickly, Brian.
Speaker 1: We've been pricing in all of twenty one throughout the
Speaker 1: last couple of months. In fact, since the beginning of November,
Speaker 1: we've been pricing the boom that is twenty one. When
Speaker 1: you start thinking about deceleration in twenty two, well, I
Speaker 1: think that investors need to keep their mind on deceleration
Speaker 1: in in twenty two. Now. I think this recovery reflation
Speaker 1: trade plays out for a bit. You know, your your
Speaker 1: value oriented parts of the market get their day in
Speaker 1: the sun. But ultimately, you know this idea that we
Speaker 1: can't own anything long duration, that interest rates are going
Speaker 1: to keep going up forever. I caution against that. What
Speaker 1: you see as you move out into two is, look,
Speaker 1: we all have pent up demand. How long does that persist?
Speaker 1: We know that this income replacement that you getting a
Speaker 1: fiscal deal starts to fade as you move out into two,
Speaker 1: and let's not forget the long term structural forces against inflation,
Speaker 1: like an aging population globally, automation of the workforce, new technology.
Speaker 1: So I'm not ready to sell anything long duration. I
Speaker 1: think growth stocks will be back in vogue as we
Speaker 1: move out into two. Brian, I'd really underline, you know,
Speaker 1: the new technology, which is of course a great mystery.
Speaker 1: Paul Romer with Bloomberg earlier this week, the laureate Brian Lovett,
Speaker 1: how much cash is really out there? I get all
Speaker 1: these trillion numbers, but when Investo sits down and calculates
Speaker 1: out the investable cash that's out there waiting to find
Speaker 1: a warm spot, how much is it a lot? And
Speaker 1: I'm not only looking for a number answer, I'm looking
Speaker 1: for something Friday scientific. Is it ginormous or is it
Speaker 1: a lot? A lot? I mean it's it's ginormous. I mean,
Speaker 1: you have a trillion dollars go into money market strategies
Speaker 1: last year. You've got you know, I mean, even if
Speaker 1: you think about the amount of money that's just sitting
Speaker 1: in government related bonds, you're looking at a few trillion,
Speaker 1: and you know, you add it all up, there's a
Speaker 1: substantial amount of money sitting on the sidelines. Even if
Speaker 1: you think since oh wait, you've had far more money,
Speaker 1: a ginormous amount of money go into fixed income strategies
Speaker 1: versus equity strategies, and yields have come up a bit,
Speaker 1: but nonetheless, the Feds still telling you they want to
Speaker 1: inflate away a good percentage of it. You're getting zero
Speaker 1: in money markets. The FED wants greater than two percent inflation.
Speaker 1: That's not a great deal. Ultimately, I think that money
Speaker 1: continues to find its way into equities and credit. And
Speaker 1: let's remember, a lot of this support on the fiscal
Speaker 1: side is going to end up in markets. It's it's
Speaker 1: some of it is finding its way into middle income
Speaker 1: household pockets, and that's gonna find its way into markets too.
Speaker 1: So I would say asset price inflation um is a
Speaker 1: good part of this story. And let's stop talking about
Speaker 1: managing other people's money and talk about managing your money.
Speaker 1: I understand its young Carlie's birthday today and the Levitt household.
Speaker 1: So hap to the young Levitt for you. Carlie needs
Speaker 1: some money when she comes to New York City in
Speaker 1: about ten years time. If you had to buy and
Speaker 1: hold for a decade for your young thirteen year old.
Speaker 1: Where would that money go today? Brian, And let me
Speaker 1: first say, I hope it's a decade before before she's
Speaker 1: going to New York City to hang out with her friends.
Speaker 1: I say, it's gonna be a little it's gonna be
Speaker 1: a little bit sooner than that. But you know, I
Speaker 1: think that you have a trade here on value stocks.
Speaker 1: But if you're looking out long term ten years, you
Speaker 1: want to look for structural growth businesses globally. I would
Speaker 1: think that a lot of those are going to be
Speaker 1: in the United States. Some of those are going to
Speaker 1: be in the emerging markets as well. Brian, is she
Speaker 1: training game stop off the couch? Not yet? Maybe I
Speaker 1: should teach her too, Not yet. I just feel bad that,
Speaker 1: you know, last year the friends we were haunting the
Speaker 1: horn on the street to celebrate the birthday. This year
Speaker 1: a little bit better. We're celebrating in the garage. Maybe
Speaker 1: two we can go inside, have fun. Brian, happy the celebrations.
Speaker 1: Thank you, sir, Brian left that of investing the global
Speaker 1: market strategies. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening.
Speaker 1: Join us live weekdays from seven to ten a m. Eastern.
Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio and I'm Bomberg Television each day from
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Speaker 1: the terminal, I'm Tom Keene and this is Bloomberg.