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Speaker 2: The Fix up fifteen percent today, That's how we're feeling.
Speaker 2: Look at bitcoin, even bitcoin is getting crushed down. We're
Speaker 2: below eighty thousand dollars here. Look at this five percent
Speaker 2: loss for bitcoin. As I mentioned, what is up the
Speaker 2: vix And of course all of this has to do.
Speaker 3: With tariffs and rhetoric.
Speaker 2: Go back to Saturday and Scott Bessen talking about the
Speaker 2: detoxing the economy. We heard about short term pain right
Speaker 2: at the the not State of the Union address last week,
Speaker 2: the address to a joint Session of Congress. But then
Speaker 2: there was the big one, the Big Doozy with Maria Barbiromo.
Speaker 2: President Trump is asked straight out, because we've traded our
Speaker 2: animal spirits here for talk of recession. What do you think,
Speaker 2: mister President, are you expecting a recession this year?
Speaker 3: Here's what he said.
Speaker 4: I hate to predict things like that. There is a
Speaker 4: period of transition because what we're doing is very big.
Speaker 4: We're bringing wealth back to America. That's a big thing,
Speaker 4: and there are always periods of it takes a little time.
Speaker 4: It takes a little time.
Speaker 3: You couldn't say no.
Speaker 2: We assemble our panel now, our signature panel with us
Speaker 2: on this Monday. Genie Shanzano is here, our Democratic analyst,
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor of course, senior democracy fellow with the
Speaker 2: Center for the Study of the Presidency in Congress. And
Speaker 2: there's Republican strategist Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributor and partner
Speaker 2: at Stone Court Capital. Rick was that Donald Trump being
Speaker 2: off brand there. Howard Luttnik had to go on TV
Speaker 2: later on and say, absolutely not. We're not going to
Speaker 2: have a recession. What happened to talking up the economy,
Speaker 2: which Donald Trump.
Speaker 5: Was that, Yeah, that was the dark Donald Trump. You
Speaker 5: remember Dark Brandon. Well, we're gonna have to have a
Speaker 5: new nickname for Dark Trump. You know, his eyes turned
Speaker 5: a little bit red and glowed when he said that,
Speaker 5: And I thought, Wow, here's an administration it doesn't mind
Speaker 5: leaning into a recession. I mean, Joe Biden was excoriated
Speaker 5: for denying that there could be a recession or that
Speaker 5: there was inflation, And here we had an administration, you know,
Speaker 5: is kind of predicting a downfall in the economy.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 5: And I must admit I didn't hear it from Kevin Hassett,
Speaker 5: chief Economic Advisor. I didn't hear it from Howard Lutnick.
Speaker 5: I didn't hear it from Scott Bestnett. So maybe Donald
Speaker 5: Trump is on the wrong page. I hope so, because
Speaker 5: certainly a recession is not what we bought into when
Speaker 5: we elected Donald Trump president.
Speaker 2: Well no, boy, things have changed awfully quick here, Genie.
Speaker 2: The market is back to where it was before the election.
Speaker 2: We're talking about whether we're going to have a recession
Speaker 2: or not. There's something called talking down the economy, right,
Speaker 2: Is Donald.
Speaker 3: Trump going to make it worse with rhetoric like that.
Speaker 6: Today? Is probably suggests that he is making it a
Speaker 6: little worse, but it's hard to tell, you know. I
Speaker 6: think my read of this is is Donald Trump is
Speaker 6: doing something we've seen all modern presidents do, is they
Speaker 6: try to walk back the inflated expectations that got them
Speaker 6: into office. And so with Donald Trump, it was make
Speaker 6: America affordable again. Now all of a sudden, as the
Speaker 6: numbers it's just been seven weeks have shown that may
Speaker 6: not be coming quite as quickly as he promised. He
Speaker 6: wants to lower those expectations, and so when he talks
Speaker 6: to Maria Bartoloma or anybody else, he says, to your point,
Speaker 6: at the state of the Union, even there might be
Speaker 6: some pain here, you might experience pain, but there is
Speaker 6: something great waiting in the after. We don't quite know
Speaker 6: what that is. We hope it's a good economy. It's
Speaker 6: strong economy, jobs, manufacturing. But this is I think and
Speaker 6: person of the way we have laid out the modern presidency.
Speaker 6: To win, you have to overpromise, and when you get
Speaker 6: into office, delivering on those promises is difficult. You let
Speaker 6: supporters down. And of course many of his supporters are
Speaker 6: in the stock market. They want it a lot more
Speaker 6: from this president, and he promised it quickly, and that
Speaker 6: is not something that Washington can deliver even under Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: Well, as we mentioned grabbing the fire hose running towards
Speaker 2: the smoke, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnek on meet the press
Speaker 2: yesterday morning. Are we going to have a recession?
Speaker 7: Mister secretary, there's going to be no recession in America.
Speaker 7: What there's going to be is global tariffs are going
Speaker 7: to come down because President Trump has said, you want
Speaker 7: to charge us one hundred percent, We're going to charge
Speaker 7: you one hundred percent. And you know what they say.
Speaker 7: They say, no, no, no, no, no, don't charge us
Speaker 7: one hundred percent. We'll bring ours down. So Donald Trump
Speaker 7: is bringing growth to America. I would never bet our recession,
Speaker 7: no chance.
Speaker 2: Well, Rick Davis, it looks like Wall Street kind of is.
Speaker 2: I don't know if we can go that far, but
Speaker 2: we're looking at a pronounced sell off here again. Today
Speaker 2: the NASDAC, even as tech CEOs arrive at the White House,
Speaker 2: is down over three percent, over three and a half percent.
Speaker 2: You've got Mike Wilson at Morgan Stanley calling the bottom
Speaker 2: fifty five hundred. He says for the S and P
Speaker 2: five hundred. How do we rationalize all of this?
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, I hope how Lutnik is right. But like,
Speaker 5: maybe what he's missing is while ourcon our stock markets
Speaker 5: are going down the floorboards in giving back every game
Speaker 5: that we had prior to Donald Trump being president, the
Speaker 5: w rest of the world seems to be enjoying an
Speaker 5: uplift in the economy. I mean Donald Trump should be
Speaker 5: the savior of Europe. I mean you mentioned the Vics
Speaker 5: being up today. I mean, like all of a sudden,
Speaker 5: Europe's a place to invest, not because they're doing that
Speaker 5: much better, it's because we're doing that much worse. We
Speaker 5: do have to remember, Donald Trump inherited a robust economy.
Speaker 5: I heard some of his people on the weekend shows
Speaker 5: talking about what a horrible economy they got. They didn't
Speaker 5: get a horrible economy, they got a great economy. We
Speaker 5: had people on this show saying this might be the
Speaker 5: best economy we've had in our current lifetime, and I
Speaker 5: would agree. No economists, but from what I could tell,
Speaker 5: every indicator in the economy was up at the end
Speaker 5: of this last year, and now they're looking at a
Speaker 5: totally different scenario. Donald Trump was kind of, you know,
Speaker 5: talking about that in his own comments, but nobody else
Speaker 5: in his administration will echo that, so I don't know.
Speaker 5: I mean, I think the rest of the world has
Speaker 5: a autosnic gift to the White House, thanking Donald Trump
Speaker 5: for starting a tear far that is actually helping them,
Speaker 5: not hurting the rest of the world.
Speaker 3: Like Leutnik is saying.
Speaker 2: He also helped to save Justin Trudeau's party and may
Speaker 2: well in the coming elections. Here with our new prime
Speaker 2: minister over the weekend, Genie, I'll get hit for saying this,
Speaker 2: but I've got to ask it. How long until we
Speaker 2: see the first billboard with Joe Biden's face on it
Speaker 2: saying miss me Yet?
Speaker 6: I'm thinking that may be a little while, but we'll
Speaker 6: have to wait and see. You know, if we don't
Speaker 6: see the if we don't get out of the red
Speaker 6: pretty soon, it might come sooner than I think. But
Speaker 6: you know, another really interesting thing that Donald Trump said
Speaker 6: over the weekend was he compared how China operates to
Speaker 6: how the US operates in terms of planning, and he
Speaker 6: is right on this. They work on one hundred year cycles.
Speaker 6: We go quarter to quarter. This speaks to an enormous
Speaker 6: structural problem in the way we plan and the way
Speaker 6: Washington d C. Operates. So when somebody like Donald Trump
Speaker 6: is elected to do something very revolutionary and to do
Speaker 6: it in a way that most economists see as not
Speaker 6: being particularly friendly by way of inflation in terms of
Speaker 6: using traffs, that's a long investment that you have to
Speaker 6: make and he knows that, which is why he is
Speaker 6: now saying what he needs is time. Unfortunately for Donald Trump,
Speaker 6: he can't get it in the way our political and
Speaker 6: economic system works in the US, and that is a
Speaker 6: source of real frustration, not just for him, but for
Speaker 6: all presidents. So in a lot of ways, this story
Speaker 6: is much much bigger than anything about Donald Trump or
Speaker 6: Joe Biden. He simply does not have the time and
Speaker 6: he is a lame duck president to do the big
Speaker 6: things he wants to do. So now it is a
Speaker 6: waiting game to see when he decides he's going to
Speaker 6: cut and run from his promises and try to just
Speaker 6: make sure he can hand over an economy in good condition.
Speaker 6: And that is a sad reality that his fervent supporters
Speaker 6: are going to have to accept all of those big promises.
Speaker 6: Very difficult for a president to deliver on and he
Speaker 6: knows that, and that's why he's trying to ask for time.
Speaker 2: Well, it's another down day for the markets here. It's
Speaker 2: another sharply lower day. Rick for Goldman Sacks down five
Speaker 2: percent right now again round tripping to where we were
Speaker 2: before the election. Goldman Sachs is at five hundred and
Speaker 2: thirty two dollars. It topped out above six hundred and
Speaker 2: seventy dollars. Following the election and the inauguration, Rick, we
Speaker 2: talked about animal spirits. It was going to be m
Speaker 2: and a time the party was back on. Now that
Speaker 2: we're seeing the market reaction that we are seeing into
Speaker 2: the extent that you're involved in the private equity space,
Speaker 2: what are you hearing and could this maybe actually help
Speaker 2: private equity at some point when so many people are
Speaker 2: trying to get out of the public markets.
Speaker 5: Yeah, look, I mean it's too soon to tell.
Speaker 3: You're right.
Speaker 5: I think everybody was excited about this idea that we're
Speaker 5: going to reduce the regulation coming out of the Justice
Speaker 5: Department and out of the SEC, and it would unleash
Speaker 5: deal making to the scale that we haven't seen in
Speaker 5: a long time. You know, public issuances would be way up.
Speaker 5: And I would say part of what is being informed
Speaker 5: in in investment right now is just the lack of certainty.
Speaker 5: You know, when you deploy capital, you want some certainty
Speaker 5: in the economics situation both here and abroad, depending upon
Speaker 5: what kind of investment you make. And we have anything
Speaker 5: but that. The on again, off again tariff regimes. You know,
Speaker 5: the tax code that is going to be redone, and
Speaker 5: you know, are we going to get just the tax
Speaker 5: cuts that Donald Trump put into effect in seventeen or
Speaker 5: are there going to be a slew of these new things?
Speaker 5: What's that going to do with the budget? Are we
Speaker 5: going to increase the debt? I'd say that that it's
Speaker 5: been headspinning in this administration if they had come out
Speaker 5: and just said, here's what we're going to do, here's
Speaker 5: the regime, we're gonna We're gonna do these reciprocal tariffs,
Speaker 5: and as they come down, everybody will, you know, create
Speaker 5: some growth. But it's been anything but that. It's been
Speaker 5: tariffs on today, we're going to give exemptions. Who knows
Speaker 5: what's going to happen today in the tech meeting, you know,
Speaker 5: you'd love to be able to invest with the knowledge
Speaker 5: that tech's going to be supported by the government like
Speaker 5: it wasn't a previous administration. But now we're going to
Speaker 5: get rid of the Chips Act. Half that fifty billion
Speaker 5: dollars has already deployed. So what are we really talking
Speaker 5: about cutting? I mean, the conflicting messages in this administration
Speaker 5: puts a pall on investment.
Speaker 2: Boy Rick just said a lot gie to Democrats need
Speaker 2: to start talking about the stock market more after Joe
Speaker 2: Biden distanced himself from it for four years.
Speaker 6: I think they absolutely should, and I think that that
Speaker 6: is something that has been missing from the Democrats messaging
Speaker 6: and from their ability to speak to people where they live.
Speaker 6: You know, there is a sort of positive way to
Speaker 6: look at what's happening. And I would just raise this
Speaker 6: when we saw Goldman Sachs talk about the recession chances
Speaker 6: raised what from fifteen to twenty percent the other day.
Speaker 6: That's not a huge jump. And part of the reason
Speaker 6: is probably that this is a self inflicted wound. That
Speaker 6: the president could abort this mission, if you will, and
Speaker 6: he could change the policy. It is his policy that
Speaker 6: is driving this concern in the whiplash that Rick was
Speaker 6: just rightly discussing. So if the White House could pull
Speaker 6: that back to a certain extent, if Donald Trump was
Speaker 6: willing to, you know, maybe consider or reconsider, if you will,
Speaker 6: his commitment to tariffs and the whiplash tariff policies we've
Speaker 6: been feeling, then that may allow people to feel that
Speaker 6: certainty and that may have a positive impact. So that's
Speaker 6: both the positive aspect and the frustrating aspect of this.
Speaker 6: It is a self inflicted wound based on the seven
Speaker 6: weeks we have experienced that may change.
Speaker 2: Jenny Shanzino and Rick Davis looking at politics through the
Speaker 2: prism of Wall Street Today on the fastest show in Politics.
Speaker 2: They'll be with us an hour two. As we welcome
Speaker 2: our global television audience, we'll also welcome Congressman Chuck Fleischman,
Speaker 2: the Republican from Tennessee, will join alongside Don Byer, the
Speaker 2: Democrat from Virginia. It's all coming up right here on
Speaker 2: Balance of Power on Bloomberg.
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Speaker 8: Two, Capitol Hill. That we go next, and please to say.
Speaker 8: Joining us here on Balance of Power is Republican Congressman
Speaker 8: Chuck Fleischman of Tennessee, representing the third District. Welcome back
Speaker 8: to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Congressman, appreciate your patients today.
Speaker 8: Obviously a big week for you and your colleagues. As
Speaker 8: President Trump is saying no descent on this package, do
Speaker 8: you expect we will see some descent in the Republican conference?
Speaker 9: Very little, maybe one. I'm an appropriator, I'm very very
Speaker 9: pleased with the final work product. Obviously I would have
Speaker 9: preferred a budget. I've worked on a budget on the
Speaker 9: Energy and Water bill now for months. We've had two
Speaker 9: continuing resolutions. But I think we'll see very little descent.
Speaker 9: There's no appetite out there, and there should never be
Speaker 9: appetite to shut the federal government down. It costs more
Speaker 9: money to reopen, it hurts people, it puts our nation
Speaker 9: at risk. So I sincerely believe that we will pass
Speaker 9: this CR and that the Senate will take it up
Speaker 9: and pass it as well.
Speaker 3: Congress.
Speaker 2: But it's good to see and welcome back to Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: I know your sensitive to financial markets, and we're watching
Speaker 2: Wall Street tumble here once again today. Following the President's
Speaker 2: remarks over the weekend, you would not rule out a recession.
Speaker 2: He also would not rule out a government shut down
Speaker 2: when asked about that on Air Force One and there
Speaker 2: are great concerns about what the administration's tariff policy is
Speaker 2: going to mean for financial markets. The losses cannot be ignored.
Speaker 2: We're back to where we were before the election. Congressman,
Speaker 2: does Wall Street have this wrong or does the President
Speaker 2: need to say something to stabilize markets.
Speaker 9: The President is stabilizing the country, and as part of that,
Speaker 9: we do need to stabilize markets. But let's face it,
Speaker 9: wall Street reacts and I'm very cognizant of what Wall
Speaker 9: Street looks at every day. But the financial health, short
Speaker 9: term and long term of this country will be infinitely
Speaker 9: better with Donald Trump at the helm. I think Wall
Speaker 9: Street gets that, but there are daily daily ups and downs,
Speaker 9: and we're sensitive to that. We want to make sure
Speaker 9: that we keep inflation low, that we keep unemployment low,
Speaker 9: that we keep the country moving forward. But the reality
Speaker 9: is there are so many things that have a cumulated
Speaker 9: over the years, bad trade deals, other things that are
Speaker 9: just baked in that we have got to ferret out
Speaker 9: and fix for the long term health. Donald Trump's the
Speaker 9: best person to do that. I think he's one of
Speaker 9: a kind. Ultimately, the country will do well and Wall
Speaker 9: Street will respond.
Speaker 8: And if recession is the price to pay for a
Speaker 8: reset of the economy. Congressman, is that justified?
Speaker 9: Well, I don't necessarily concede that we're going to have
Speaker 9: a recession. There are always ebbs and flows. The administration
Speaker 9: has a role, Congress has a role, the Federal Reserve
Speaker 9: has a role. And let's face it, it's an international
Speaker 9: global economy. No one factor would would predominate in causing
Speaker 9: a recession or curing a recession. I do think strong
Speaker 9: fiscal policies, keeping tax rates low, keeping regulations low, are
Speaker 9: going to and of course what I do keeping energy
Speaker 9: abundant in America, I'm the Energy congress person, share energy
Speaker 9: and water in the House. Once we put all these
Speaker 9: pieces together, I think we're going to see an unprecedented
Speaker 9: growth in America like we've never seen before. So sit tight,
Speaker 9: hold tight for the midterm and the long run, and
Speaker 9: we're going to be in great shape.
Speaker 2: Crude oil prices are lower today as well, Congressman West
Speaker 2: Texas crewed is traded around sixty six dollars of barrel.
Speaker 2: Here you start talking about recession and you know that
Speaker 2: energy prices are going to start dropping. Not to be
Speaker 2: confused with drill, baby drill, How does this administration compel
Speaker 2: energy producers to continue producing in the face of lower prices.
Speaker 9: Well, the best part about it is the United States
Speaker 9: under President Trump, the first time I actually voted for it,
Speaker 9: became an exporter of oil for the first time in decades.
Speaker 9: We can export natural gas. Biden's artificial constraints on that
Speaker 9: that he really didn't realize that he did when asked
Speaker 9: by the Speaker of the House. What we've got to
Speaker 9: do in this country is realize we have abundant natural resources, oil,
Speaker 9: natural gas, rules and the like. We take that abundance,
Speaker 9: that wealth, that resource, use it internally and exploit it
Speaker 9: as well. It will help create better trade relations and
Speaker 9: the like. Let's face it, it's supply and demand. You're
Speaker 9: right if there is a recession slider otherwise demand for
Speaker 9: energy will go down, but ultimately it always bounces back.
Speaker 9: What I look at is the big picture. I know
Speaker 9: this America's demand and the world's demand for energy is booming.
Speaker 9: We cannot stay static, so we need our fossil fuels,
Speaker 9: oil and gas. I occupy the nuclear sector. I'm so
Speaker 9: glad that our new Secretary of Energy is pro nuclear.
Speaker 9: We're going to work on that. But I want to
Speaker 9: see abundant American energy. I share the American Dominance and
Speaker 9: Energy Caucus, So let's get supply out there and demand
Speaker 9: will take care of itself.
Speaker 8: On the subject of energy, Congressman, effective today, Ontario, the
Speaker 8: province in Canada, has announced a twenty five percent surcharge
Speaker 8: on electric city exports to three US states. This is
Speaker 8: part of retaliation for the tariffs on Canada that President
Speaker 8: Trump has of course put into place and pulled back
Speaker 8: a few times. Now, should energy be exempt from whatever
Speaker 8: trade or tariff oriented negotiations over fence and al in
Speaker 8: the border this administration is having with what will be
Speaker 8: the Mark Carney government now that he's been tapped as
Speaker 8: the next Prime minister. Do you worry about the role
Speaker 8: energy is playing in this fight? Not just when it
Speaker 8: comes to US and Canada, but you could look at
Speaker 8: retaliatory tariffs China has placed on US LNG as well.
Speaker 9: Well. I'm going to leave that to the administration to decide,
Speaker 9: and I trust them as they implement tariffs, they will
Speaker 9: use them. Many countries have backed off already. Other countries
Speaker 9: want to negotiate. Canada is our friend, but we've had
Speaker 9: disadvantageous trade agreements with them for quite some time. That
Speaker 9: needs to be resolved, just like it does in Mexico.
Speaker 9: The arrangement with Mexico is maybe not as amicable amicable
Speaker 9: as it is with our friends in the North. But
Speaker 9: we have got to make sure, whether it's Canada, Mexico,
Speaker 9: or any other country including China, that we don't continue
Speaker 9: to get beat at the table, because when we continue
Speaker 9: to lose, lose, lose, we have to have an equalizer.
Speaker 9: Donald Trump is not only an equalizer, he's a winner
Speaker 9: at this game. So it's a process that has started.
Speaker 9: It's a process that's long overdue, and I think it's
Speaker 9: a process that ultimately Donald Trump and the American people
Speaker 9: will win.
Speaker 2: Looking at the stock market and specifically the S and
Speaker 2: P five hundred in real time as we speak, Congressman,
Speaker 2: we're going back to October. We may be back in
Speaker 2: September by the time the day is done here. I
Speaker 2: know that you're deferring to the administration when it comes
Speaker 2: to tariff policy and a number of other issues, including
Speaker 2: energy that we're talking about. But is there a line
Speaker 2: in which we need to reconsider the way this is
Speaker 2: being communicated to the markets. Is there a point at
Speaker 2: which the S and P. Five hundred will fall, and
Speaker 2: the Communications Department at the White House, and maybe lawmakers
Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill.
Speaker 3: He just started dressing this in a different way.
Speaker 9: Well, I hark him back to the wonderful days of
Speaker 9: Ronald Reagan, and I remember voting for Reagan in nineteen eighty.
Speaker 9: In nineteen eighty two, naysayers were saying, oh my gosh,
Speaker 9: the sky is falling. They called it the Reagan recession.
Speaker 9: But he said, hold fast and hold tight. Better days
Speaker 9: will come. And we literally had decades of great growth
Speaker 9: in this country. Inner economy, the middle class boon, people
Speaker 9: came out of poverty. It was a great time for America.
Speaker 3: I think we're going to see something very Ronald Reagan
Speaker 3: also had a real allergy to tariffs.
Speaker 9: Congressman, Yes he did, but he was not one who
Speaker 9: would shy away from the fight when the fight had
Speaker 9: to happen. When we had a situation that we do now.
Speaker 9: Donald Trump had to look at the entire world taking
Speaker 9: advantage of the United States, where some people in the
Speaker 9: United States, including some in my party, said well, we
Speaker 9: prefer the cheap goods. The cheap goods were the benefit
Speaker 9: of the American nation, and right now we've got to
Speaker 9: equalize that. I fervently believe that Donald Trump will see
Speaker 9: this through. He will not only macro manage this, he
Speaker 9: will micromanage this, and he will use that to gain
Speaker 9: other benefits fentanyl and better international relations with our good
Speaker 9: trade partners. I think the day of taking advantage of
Speaker 9: the United States is over, and I think Donald Trump
Speaker 9: is in the best position to preside over that. To
Speaker 9: answer your question, ultimately, Wall Street will be fine because
Speaker 9: Main Street America will be fine, and we're going to
Speaker 9: see abundant growth, lower regulations, We're going to see less deficits.
Speaker 9: We're going to see a situation where we get those
Speaker 9: tax cuts back in place. The things that are going
Speaker 9: to drive our great economy will be done better under
Speaker 9: this administration and with Republicans in control.
Speaker 2: Congressman Chuck Fleischman, the Republican from Tennessee's third district. Congressman,
Speaker 2: thank you for the insights as we watch Wall Street
Speaker 2: today with our eyes on politics here at Washington. He's
Speaker 2: back in town for a vote as soon as tomorrow
Speaker 2: on the cr we've been talking about.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 8: I'm Kaylie Lyones alongside Joe Matthew in Washington, where there
Speaker 8: is no sign that President Trump is starting to approach
Speaker 8: tariffs any differently than before. Still threatening to put reciprocal
Speaker 8: tariffs on US trading partners on April second, threatening of course,
Speaker 8: tariffs of reciprocal specifically on things like Canadian lumber and
Speaker 8: darry although didn't he say that that could come, Joe
Speaker 8: as soon as it's a couple of days from now,
Speaker 8: not waiting until April second. We're trying to keep track
Speaker 8: of all the different narratives here. What we do know though,
Speaker 8: is that leading the trade fight on Canada's part is
Speaker 8: going to be a different character after yesterday's overwhelming version.
Speaker 8: Mark Carney, who happens to be the former chair of
Speaker 8: the board of Directors of Bloomberg and better known to
Speaker 8: our audience as the former head of the Bank of
Speaker 8: Canada and then the Bank of England, is set to
Speaker 8: be the next Prime Minister's right, and he came out
Speaker 8: with some fighting words yesterday.
Speaker 10: We didn't ask for this fight. We didn't ask for
Speaker 10: this fight. But Canadians are always ready when someone else
Speaker 10: drops the gloves. So i'm the Americans they should make
Speaker 10: no mistake. In trade, as in hockey, Canada will win.
Speaker 2: Ironic that it is because of Donald Trump and the
Speaker 2: tariff policies that we've seen Canada's Liberal Party vaulting into
Speaker 2: a position that it is now in very different than
Speaker 2: where we were even a couple of weeks ago. And
Speaker 2: we want to talk about with Brian Platt, his Bloomberg
Speaker 2: News Canada government reporter, with us live here on Balance
Speaker 2: of Power. Brian, it's great to see you, Thanks for
Speaker 2: joining the program today. Is Donald Trump the best thing
Speaker 2: actually that ever happened to the Liberal Party of Canada.
Speaker 11: It's completely changed the political environment in Canada. I really
Speaker 11: think you can't overstate it. And you know what Americans
Speaker 11: need to understand is is Canadians. I don't think as
Speaker 11: an overstatement at this at this point to say Canadians
Speaker 11: view themselves as is in a state of economic war
Speaker 11: right now. There's a huge backlash across the country. Canadians
Speaker 11: are furious, especially about the fifty first state talk and
Speaker 11: the increasingly menacing tone it's taken on. And I would say,
Speaker 11: if anything, you know, Canada has counter tariffs in place
Speaker 11: right now. I think, if anything, Canadians want their politicians
Speaker 11: to go even further in retaliating. And that is the
Speaker 11: environment that Mark Carney will step into in a few days,
Speaker 11: most likely as Prime Minister.
Speaker 8: Well so, Brian. If this is economic war, how significant
Speaker 8: is it that the leader of that will be someone
Speaker 8: who was in some ways a steward of the Canadian economy,
Speaker 8: leading the Bank of Canada during the financial crisis, then
Speaker 8: the Bank of England during Brexit. This is not an
Speaker 8: ordinary politician we're talking about.
Speaker 11: Yeah, and you know, like I was in the room
Speaker 11: last night when he made that speech. He's not an
Speaker 11: electrofine speaker, right, has a finance kind of technocratic way
Speaker 11: of speaking. He doesn't even the tone of his voice
Speaker 11: doesn't tend to change that much when he's giving an
Speaker 11: applause line. But his experience in steering the UK through Brexit,
Speaker 11: and he was Bank of Canada governor during the global
Speaker 11: financial crisis in two thousand and eight, this is the
Speaker 11: kind of expertise that the country seems to be wanting
Speaker 11: right now if you look at the public opinion polling
Speaker 11: and his sort of like more technocratic and geopolitical expertise
Speaker 11: style of speaking, I think is really at least if
Speaker 11: you look at the polls, that's what Canadians are looking
Speaker 11: for right now.
Speaker 8: All right, Bloomberg's Canada Government reporter Brian Platt, thank you
Speaker 8: so much, and I would note on the late edition
Speaker 8: of Balance of Power, we'll be talking about not just
Speaker 8: the ascension of Mark Karney, but also the implementation today
Speaker 8: of retalitatory twenty five percent hikes on energy exports to
Speaker 8: the US from the province of Ontario. Ontario's Premier Doug
Speaker 8: Ford will be joining.
Speaker 1: I'm looking for this.
Speaker 2: He's not been mincing words and said he would do
Speaker 2: it with a smile if it meant cutting off energy
Speaker 2: to the US. So that's five pm Eastern time. Please
Speaker 2: join us for Doug Ford. That'll be something to behold.
Speaker 8: Indeed it will. But we also have an important conversation
Speaker 8: here as we've closed out the early edition of Balance
Speaker 8: of Power. Joining us in our Washington, d C. Studio
Speaker 8: as Democratic Congressman Don Bayer of Virginia, thank you for
Speaker 8: being here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. We have obviously
Speaker 8: spent a lot of time today talking about tariffs in particular,
Speaker 8: and that's actually something you are looking for. A legislative
Speaker 8: answer for you. Together with your colleague Congress Will and
Speaker 8: Susan Delbenet, have reintroduced the Congressional Trade Authority Act, trying
Speaker 8: to take some of this power away from the executive.
Speaker 8: Is there any appetite with your Republican colleagues for this
Speaker 8: legislation to go.
Speaker 12: Through Kinlei in the short run.
Speaker 10: No.
Speaker 12: Right now, all of them are still very cowed by
Speaker 12: Donald Trump as his numbers fall, and we think they
Speaker 12: will because he's doing nothing to help the area can
Speaker 12: people in terms of their costs, which is the reason
Speaker 12: I believe you got elected. Hopefully some will move over. Certainly,
Speaker 12: if it were a democratic president, there'd be a lot
Speaker 12: of appetite to rein in the president's terrorf authority. That's
Speaker 12: not with the Constitution that it gives the power to
Speaker 12: the members of Congress, not to the president.
Speaker 2: You have a real unique view on all of this
Speaker 2: stuff from your years in the auto business.
Speaker 3: We hear about these.
Speaker 2: Arrangements in which a vehicle crosses the border seven eight
Speaker 2: times over the course of its assembly. Is it time
Speaker 2: to start rethinking that. Why is that going on? To
Speaker 2: begin with Congress?
Speaker 12: Well, a lot of it, Joe, is they're trying to
Speaker 12: build parts and where they had the factories, where they
Speaker 12: have the people with the skill sets, and that's sort
Speaker 12: of the genius of free trade. I'd love to point
Speaker 12: out that since nineteen forty eight and the liberalization of
Speaker 12: international trade has been the greatest period of growth by
Speaker 12: far in human history. We've lifted billions and billions of
Speaker 12: people out of poverty because of trade. And so this
Speaker 12: notion of recklessly throwing twenty five percent tariffs on our
Speaker 12: two closest friends and neighbors is crazy.
Speaker 8: Well, and we've seen them threatened and then pulled back,
Speaker 8: threatened and pulled back. But if you're an auto business,
Speaker 8: or any other kind of business for that matter, are
Speaker 8: you concerned about what it's going to do to investment
Speaker 8: decisions that businesses are making, hiring decisions businesses are making,
Speaker 8: even if we don't see the full implementation of these
Speaker 8: levees for an elongated period of time.
Speaker 12: Oh, absolutely yes. So I was a retail car dealer
Speaker 12: for forty six years and the whole notion of that.
Speaker 12: They always want investment, new facilities and hiring new people.
Speaker 12: But if you don't know whether the products can be
Speaker 12: available or sellable in a year or two, Yeah, I
Speaker 12: mean business depends on predictability, on a certain sense of
Speaker 12: a certainty, and optimism about the future. When it's a
Speaker 12: different every week, it's pretty crazy.
Speaker 2: What's going to happen to the used car market if
Speaker 2: these tariffs are implemented? We all remember what happened during COVID.
Speaker 2: Used cars are selling more for more than new cars
Speaker 2: in some cases. Are we going to see a phenomenon
Speaker 2: like that because the cost of a new vehicle will
Speaker 2: be prohibitively high.
Speaker 12: I think you're absolutely right, except for Tesla's which will
Speaker 12: be very cheap on the used car market. Right now,
Speaker 12: what does everybody I know with the top is trying
Speaker 12: to sell it?
Speaker 3: What do you make of that reaction? You know the
Speaker 3: power of a brand.
Speaker 2: I drive down Route one, I see buyer Subaru, I
Speaker 2: see the dealerships that still carry your name, realizing that's
Speaker 2: not how you make a living any longer.
Speaker 3: What if you've got Tesla on the board.
Speaker 12: Well, one of the reasons car dealers don't like Musk
Speaker 12: is he is the first one to say he was
Speaker 12: going to sell directly to the public. And of course,
Speaker 12: as a car dealer, I think we take the best
Speaker 12: care of our customers. It's nice to have my name
Speaker 12: on the building, because if somebody doesn't like it, they're
Speaker 12: going to see me in church, or see me at
Speaker 12: the school, or see me at the same way and
Speaker 12: beat me up. What about that undercoad Yeah, yeah, on
Speaker 12: a national brand, it's very different. But yeah, I do
Speaker 12: think Joe that we will see a real surge and
Speaker 12: used car prices once new cars become too expensive to
Speaker 12: buy it. We're following what we've done with housing. But
Speaker 12: all those tariffs on steel, aluminum and lumber, especially, the
Speaker 12: cost to buy a house is just out of rates
Speaker 12: for so many people.
Speaker 8: Well, if we're considering the cost of things, the cost
Speaker 8: of purchasing Tesla stock certainly is going down. As you're
Speaker 8: liing to that stocks down some thirteen percent today, the
Speaker 8: net worth of Elon Musk is going down with it.
Speaker 8: And on the subject of Elon Musk, obviously, Tesla itself
Speaker 8: has faced some backlash, in part because of the efforts
Speaker 8: he's making of the Department of Government Efficiency and concert
Speaker 8: with President Trump the cuts to federal workers, in particular,
Speaker 8: knowing that your district is literally just across the river
Speaker 8: in northern Virginia, what impact is it having at home
Speaker 8: and what are you hearing from your constituents about the
Speaker 8: manner with which these cuts have been implemented.
Speaker 12: Kylie, We did a little economic compowerment fair at a
Speaker 12: local high school Saturday afternoon. Had a thousand people show up,
Speaker 12: and I stood in line for five hours just listening
Speaker 12: to their heartbreak. And it wasn't just people who'd been
Speaker 12: on the job for six months. Many of them been
Speaker 12: there fifteen, twenty, twenty five years. The biggest story I heard, though,
Speaker 12: is how many of them that are getting fired or veterans.
Speaker 12: Some of that's because we have a veterans' preference in
Speaker 12: federal hiring, but also that and this may be just
Speaker 12: two conspiratorial but a number of people with veterans with
Speaker 12: disabilities were being let go now because if they're come
Speaker 12: riffs later, the riffs won't they'll get preference under those riffs,
Speaker 12: so they're trying to get them out of the way
Speaker 12: in the short run. It's pretty very simple.
Speaker 2: What's the impact that it's having on the local economy.
Speaker 2: Here you're dealing with laid off federal workers in Northern Virginia.
Speaker 2: The District of Columbia, based on the budget you may
Speaker 2: or may not want to sign off on the Continuing Resolution,
Speaker 2: has had its budget canceled a billion dollars in cuts.
Speaker 2: The DC mayor says it's time to start firing teachers
Speaker 2: and police. Is that going to be signed?
Speaker 12: It's crazy, Joe, is amazing that this Continued Resolution, which
Speaker 12: I am going to vote against, you are actually cuts
Speaker 12: all cop programs. So it's defunding the police on a
Speaker 12: national basis, and of course in Washington, d C. Which
Speaker 12: I love. It basically takes us back to two thousand
Speaker 12: and four in terms of what the budget would be,
Speaker 12: a revision of twenty years ago. We're going to try
Speaker 12: to fix it next day or two, but hopefully that
Speaker 12: won't happens.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 8: Wow, Well, as you are going to be a no
Speaker 8: vote on this Continuing Resolution, your leader Hockey jeffries To
Speaker 8: suggested the entire Democratic Caucus should be voting now on
Speaker 8: this legislation that we saw as recently as last week.
Speaker 8: The guidance from leadership isn't always followed in terms of
Speaker 8: the conduct. During the joint address to Congress, President Trump
Speaker 8: gave Will that guidance be followed this time or do
Speaker 8: you think some of your colleagues, especially those who are
Speaker 8: in swing districts, might be compelled to actually vote to
Speaker 8: keep the government open.
Speaker 12: It might be, and certainly, generally we try to give
Speaker 12: swing district members that the right to do what they
Speaker 12: think is right to get them reelected, we want them
Speaker 12: to come back. I think we'll have almost one hundred
Speaker 12: percent following Hakim's guidance this time, mostly because, first of all,
Speaker 12: it cuts veterans benefits, it cuts medical research, and most importantly,
Speaker 12: you pass a budget where Donald Trump has already said
Speaker 12: he doesn't have to spend it. This whole impoundment thing,
Speaker 12: which is unconstitutional, illegal. If we're passing a budget that
Speaker 12: he can just ignore.
Speaker 3: Do we shut down or do we avoid a shutdown here?
Speaker 2: I realize you don't like it, but even if you
Speaker 2: vote no, it looks like there might be enough Republicans
Speaker 2: to say yes.
Speaker 12: Maybe I hate shutdowns. I mean, I'm a Democrat. I
Speaker 12: believe in good government. But on the other hand, we've
Speaker 12: got to stop the evil things that Trump and Musk
Speaker 12: are doing.
Speaker 8: So would you want to be in the other chamber
Speaker 8: right now, a Senator who's going to be faced with
Speaker 8: the decision of either allowing this bill to overcome the
Speaker 8: filibuster or not. What should they do? What would be
Speaker 8: the correct decision in your mind?
Speaker 12: I'm still very much hoping, unless there are meaningful guardrails
Speaker 12: to keep Trump from impounding it and keeping the eazy
Speaker 12: government going, that we should vote no in the Democrats
Speaker 12: in the Senate and hopefully some Republicans in the Senate.
Speaker 2: As a local, if you will, to the Washington area
Speaker 2: member of Congress, give us a sense of what communication
Speaker 2: you're getting from the White House or doge directly when
Speaker 2: it comes to these cuts. Knowing how many federal workers
Speaker 2: live in your district, are you reading about it like
Speaker 2: the rest of them.
Speaker 12: No, I'm just reading about everything and talking to the people,
Speaker 12: hearing their personal stories. Fifteen minutes to clear out their desk. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 12: and they are no communication whatsoever. You know, I've been
Speaker 12: in business a long time. This is the exact opposite
Speaker 12: way that you treat your people.
Speaker 3: Fire why voicemail? Fire by email?
Speaker 12: Exactly, yeah, exactly that you know, I long ago figure
Speaker 12: out even selling cars all you're really selling are your people.
Speaker 12: You can buy the same car a bunch of different places,
Speaker 12: but you want to have the team that works together.
Speaker 12: The most important job of leadership is culture, and they're
Speaker 12: destroying the culture in the federal government right now.
Speaker 8: All right, Congressman, thank you so much for being here
Speaker 8: with us in studio. Lovely to see you. Democratic Congressman
Speaker 8: Don Bayer of Virginia here with us on this Monday.
Speaker 8: Is the House is preparing as soon as tomorrow to
Speaker 8: vote on this continuing resolution. Meantime, Joe, on this Monday,
Speaker 8: it is quite a wild day in financial markets, off
Speaker 8: just off the session lows right now, but the Nasdaq
Speaker 8: one hundred briefly was looking at a loss of more
Speaker 8: than four percent with tech leading what is pretty heavy
Speaker 8: selling to.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it looks like we're back down four percent of
Speaker 2: Nasdaq composite, the S and P five hundred down almost
Speaker 2: three percent, Kaylee. Also lower is bitcoin? Have you seen
Speaker 2: this for seventy eight thousand for a token? And the
Speaker 2: VIX just keeps cranking now up eighteen percent to approach
Speaker 2: twenty eight on the Vicks, things are not slowing down,
Speaker 2: they're accelerating, to your point, and we haven't heard much
Speaker 2: from the White House to change that yet.
Speaker 8: No, of course, we are expecting President Trump just minutes
Speaker 8: from now will be convening at the White House with
Speaker 8: a series of tech executives. I would imagine this may
Speaker 8: be a topic of conversation in addition to tariffs, the
Speaker 8: chipsacked money, presuming there's a lot on the agenda, and
Speaker 8: we may very well hear from the President himself if
Speaker 8: he decides to take questions from the press.
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
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