WEBVTT - Twitter, China, And Crypto (Podcast) 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:15.600 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.439 on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:23.000 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Let's get over to 0:00:23.079 --> 0:00:26.280 Dan Ives right now web Bush Securities. He's a managing 0:00:26.280 --> 0:00:30.880 director there and a senior equity analyst and a bowl. Um, 0:00:31.200 --> 0:00:34.400 I guess Dan, for you, this must be the perfect 0:00:34.440 --> 0:00:36.600 time to go in and buy right. We had a 0:00:36.640 --> 0:00:41.720 big drop on Friday, big drop today? Um are, Is 0:00:41.760 --> 0:00:43.880 there is there ever point at which you're gonna say, 0:00:43.920 --> 0:00:47.960 you know what? This is over for now and let's 0:00:47.960 --> 0:00:52.600 make Tesla, Apple, Microsoft all neutrals until m until the 0:00:52.600 --> 0:00:58.800 crash is over. Yeah. Look, the fundamentals dictated change and 0:00:58.920 --> 0:01:04.560 shift in terms of cloud, cybersecurity, electric vehicles, spending, like 0:01:04.680 --> 0:01:07.039 we've done in many names. Then you turn cautious. But 0:01:07.280 --> 0:01:10.440 it's like me and you have talked about for for years. 0:01:11.040 --> 0:01:14.360 We're in the first second inning of what I view 0:01:14.400 --> 0:01:17.559 is the fourth in Dushia revolution. So I don't throw 0:01:17.640 --> 0:01:21.319 in the towel because of a macro and rates going higher. 0:01:21.680 --> 0:01:24.480 I view it is just a painful digestion period, but 0:01:24.560 --> 0:01:27.800 not the end of what I view is tex stocks 0:01:27.800 --> 0:01:30.800 in the long term movement higher. Dan, Here's what I 0:01:30.800 --> 0:01:34.760 don't understand. You're seeing to have the sensitivity to rates, 0:01:34.800 --> 0:01:38.319 have the sensitivity to simply risk off moves. The heavyweights 0:01:38.720 --> 0:01:40.800 lead the SMP five hundred to records, they also lead 0:01:40.840 --> 0:01:42.839 the sell off and you can see that um really 0:01:42.880 --> 0:01:44.720 in any of these red days that we see. But 0:01:44.760 --> 0:01:49.360 I'm curious if the likes of Apple, Microsoft, Tesla essentially 0:01:49.400 --> 0:01:53.240 boast this ability to have very strong supply chains that 0:01:53.360 --> 0:01:57.240 whether a lot of these issues that other companies are having, 0:01:58.000 --> 0:02:01.640 then where's the problem? Why are these stocks selling off 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:06.080 so much? Look, I think you're seeing everyone head for 0:02:06.120 --> 0:02:10.079 the elevator at the same time, risk off scary headlines, 0:02:10.800 --> 0:02:14.639 reads moving higher in Fleah, So you're seeing the risk 0:02:14.720 --> 0:02:16.679 off track all at the same time. And that's why 0:02:16.720 --> 0:02:19.840 I like text doctors over sohow relative to growth that 0:02:19.919 --> 0:02:23.680 I've seen the last six years. And you can't paint 0:02:23.760 --> 0:02:28.760 a Netflix, a Zoom, a Facebook Slash Meta with the 0:02:28.800 --> 0:02:33.960 same brush as an Apple Microsoft, cybersecurity and cloud and 0:02:34.000 --> 0:02:36.079 it just speaks like that's why this is the most 0:02:36.120 --> 0:02:39.239 important earning season probably the last seventy years in terms 0:02:39.240 --> 0:02:43.920 of proving that the quote unquote massive slowdown off of 0:02:43.919 --> 0:02:47.040 a cliff is not happening across the board. That's sort 0:02:47.080 --> 0:02:50.239 of our thesis here in terms as we go through 0:02:50.280 --> 0:02:52.880 what's really a key week for tech. By the way, 0:02:52.960 --> 0:02:56.840 you don't cover Twitter that I know of, at least 0:02:56.840 --> 0:02:59.840 I can't see a rating on Twitter. Um, what are 0:02:59.840 --> 0:03:02.640 you think about the possibility of Elon must coming in 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:06.359 and purchasing this company. Look, we've taught it's a game 0:03:06.360 --> 0:03:10.079 of highest takes boker, And bottom line is the board 0:03:10.400 --> 0:03:13.600 was looking at the altar, waiting for a white night, 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:18.720 a second bidder. They never came. Then Must details his financing. 0:03:19.000 --> 0:03:23.160 It's not antics. At that point clock Stock twelve board 0:03:23.160 --> 0:03:25.800 had to go to negotiation table, and that's why it 0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:27.639 looks like a deal is going to happen, and it 0:03:27.800 --> 0:03:31.200 just looked as a public company for dociary. I mean, 0:03:31.320 --> 0:03:36.280 they ultimately thought that a second bidder would come, and 0:03:36.880 --> 0:03:39.880 I think in the streetside it's very skeptical at first, 0:03:40.400 --> 0:03:42.680 but now you know, really like a glad path to 0:03:42.680 --> 0:03:46.320 get the deal done. Dan, speaking of Twitter, and I 0:03:46.360 --> 0:03:48.640 know it's not your coverage universe, but stick with me here. 0:03:49.360 --> 0:03:51.880 One of the questions around Twitter when Jack Dorsey wasn't 0:03:51.920 --> 0:03:55.520 charged was when he also created Square now known as 0:03:55.560 --> 0:03:58.480 Block I believe, and one of the concerns from a 0:03:58.520 --> 0:04:01.560 lot of investors was it would essentially split his attention. 0:04:01.640 --> 0:04:06.760 He can't give one enough of his leadership, and that's 0:04:06.960 --> 0:04:11.680 perhaps why he moved from Twitter to Square now known 0:04:11.720 --> 0:04:14.760 as Block. You do cover Tesla? Is that a risk 0:04:14.880 --> 0:04:18.160 when it comes to Tesla? I think it's to perceive 0:04:18.200 --> 0:04:21.440 the risk and and it is a real risk relative 0:04:21.560 --> 0:04:26.320 to how it does. Must dive and deep end to 0:04:26.360 --> 0:04:28.719 the pool with Twitter in terms of Issy a chairman, 0:04:28.839 --> 0:04:30.599 because we we've that would be more of the role. 0:04:30.839 --> 0:04:33.960 It's not gonna be CEO, who have others that would 0:04:34.080 --> 0:04:38.479 ultimately as a private company, really try to transform Twitter. 0:04:39.160 --> 0:04:42.440 But I think it does take attention at a time 0:04:43.240 --> 0:04:46.200 that we're really going through just such an important time 0:04:46.279 --> 0:04:51.080 for Tessa in terms of easy the shift among consumers. 0:04:51.800 --> 0:04:54.680 You have the Giga factory build out in Berlin, Austin, 0:04:54.760 --> 0:04:57.120 you have some of the issues clearly in China, which 0:04:57.120 --> 0:04:59.360 is the hearts and longs, the Tesla story. And that's 0:04:59.400 --> 0:05:03.680 why long perception you have to sell Pestler's shares is 0:05:03.680 --> 0:05:06.719 why the stock down look as a testa holder. Your 0:05:06.839 --> 0:05:11.000 dream is not for Musque to buy Twitter. It's a negative. 0:05:11.240 --> 0:05:13.840 And I think that's why you see that reaction because 0:05:13.880 --> 0:05:18.000 again the eyes of many you're trading in caviare for 0:05:18.040 --> 0:05:25.240 a pretzel on Broadway descriptive. Yeah, I'm hungry. I like it. 0:05:25.279 --> 0:05:27.680 But if he stays chairman, I understand. And you know, 0:05:27.839 --> 0:05:30.159 we've obviously seen him do a couple of different jobs 0:05:30.680 --> 0:05:35.120 with much greater success, arguably greater than Jack Dorsey. Right, 0:05:35.320 --> 0:05:37.719 SpaceX and Twitter at the same time. Dan, great to 0:05:37.720 --> 0:05:39.760 have you on. Thanks so much for joining us. Dan ives. 0:05:39.800 --> 0:05:47.320 They are Managing director Senior equity analyst at Wedbush Security, 0:05:48.720 --> 0:05:52.200 Andy Marsh plug Power, speaking of CEO and president of 0:05:52.200 --> 0:05:55.840 plug Power. But it's not it doesn't do what you 0:05:55.839 --> 0:05:58.920 think it does. Andy, I bet you a million people 0:05:59.000 --> 0:06:03.760 think that you, um, you're all about e V technology, 0:06:03.800 --> 0:06:07.000 but you're really about hydrogen and fuel cell technology. Right, 0:06:07.400 --> 0:06:11.080 tell us our outline for us the difference, Well, I 0:06:11.120 --> 0:06:14.640 think the mayor Hi match great being here. I think 0:06:14.680 --> 0:06:18.359 The major difference matter is, and I would separate is 0:06:18.720 --> 0:06:22.640 it's be these and be these run on batteries or 0:06:22.760 --> 0:06:28.240 as the Corvette as a hybrid unit with batteries and 0:06:28.279 --> 0:06:32.479 there were, and a fuel cell runs on hydrogen and 0:06:32.600 --> 0:06:35.640 plug power. With our recent deal with walmart's going to 0:06:35.680 --> 0:06:39.480 be generating twenty tons of green hydrogen too for them, 0:06:39.520 --> 0:06:43.240 and a you know, a kilogram is a thousand tons 0:06:43.360 --> 0:06:46.320 as one ton, and that's about thirty three to one 0:06:46.320 --> 0:06:50.599 hours of electricity. So we generate hydrogen, we provide the 0:06:50.600 --> 0:06:54.920 fuel cells which make vehicles run like last mile vehicles 0:06:54.960 --> 0:06:59.840 and Class eight trucks. Yeah, that's another important difference, right 0:07:00.160 --> 0:07:03.320 not um, you're not gonna be well, who knows what 0:07:03.400 --> 0:07:06.400 happens and when Corvette comes out fully electric, but for 0:07:06.520 --> 0:07:11.680 now you're not powering corvettes. You're powering what fork lifts 0:07:11.800 --> 0:07:14.800 or trucks that get things, not the eighteen wheelers, but 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:21.240 the final destination trucks. Right With our JB with Renault, 0:07:21.240 --> 0:07:24.840 which is called i DA, we planned it over the 0:07:24.880 --> 0:07:28.160 next four or five years deploy over a hundred thousand 0:07:28.320 --> 0:07:32.280 vehicles and they will run on duel cells. They will 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:35.800 be powered by fuel cells and batteries will be hybridge, 0:07:36.080 --> 0:07:39.000 and that vehicle will be will be provided will be 0:07:39.040 --> 0:07:43.040 powered by green hydrogen, which is generated by plug power. 0:07:43.720 --> 0:07:46.800 We're building out five hundred tons of capacity here in 0:07:46.800 --> 0:07:49.800 the United States as well as in Europe with our 0:07:49.880 --> 0:07:54.760 partner Acciona, which is the largest provider of renewable electricity, 0:07:54.960 --> 0:07:59.080 which will be used to create green hydrogen. So you 0:07:59.120 --> 0:08:02.080 mentioned your deal with Smart. I'm curious, who's coming next? 0:08:04.080 --> 0:08:07.080 Great question. You know, if you look at our chart 0:08:07.160 --> 0:08:12.480 of customers, it includes people like Amazon, Home Depot and others. 0:08:12.840 --> 0:08:16.440 I would expect that, like any company, we leverage our 0:08:16.440 --> 0:08:20.080 present relationships to build out our business with new products, 0:08:20.560 --> 0:08:25.160 and today I would think they're probably the prime candidates 0:08:25.160 --> 0:08:28.520 to who comes next? If you have Amazon in Walmart, 0:08:28.520 --> 0:08:31.240 I mean who else is there that's You've got the 0:08:31.240 --> 0:08:36.480 whole market tied up? Why? Andy? Why you know the 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:41.880 stock has been in one sense beloved a darling the company. 0:08:41.920 --> 0:08:44.600 I'll say, Um, I remember when Matt Winkler put you 0:08:44.600 --> 0:08:47.320 guys in an op ed about the importance of what 0:08:47.400 --> 0:08:51.040 you do. And on the on the other hand, um, 0:08:51.080 --> 0:08:53.880 it's been a tough run for the stock for shareholders 0:08:53.880 --> 0:08:58.000 over the last year. You've come down, you know over 0:08:58.040 --> 0:09:01.160 the from the high year down about half. Why do 0:09:01.200 --> 0:09:04.960 you think or what's the market getting wrong? Well, I 0:09:05.040 --> 0:09:08.240 think that one item I think that's really critical matter 0:09:08.280 --> 0:09:12.400 is that we have a very strong balance sheet. We 0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:15.000 have over four billion dollars of cash in the bank 0:09:15.040 --> 0:09:18.160 to build our plan. We won't be going to the market. 0:09:18.800 --> 0:09:21.200 I think then you take on fat top of that 0:09:21.200 --> 0:09:27.120 that there's three advantages to hydrogen. One is that the 0:09:27.240 --> 0:09:31.160 world is committed to producing their CEO two footprint, and 0:09:31.200 --> 0:09:35.600 the folks of Bloomberg believes hydrogeneral of it. The second 0:09:35.640 --> 0:09:38.679 item is that you know, we're creating jobs. I've been 0:09:38.720 --> 0:09:42.320 sitting here with Mackenzie today reviewing the job creation that 0:09:42.440 --> 0:09:46.280 plug Power and us in the hydrogen industry will will produce. 0:09:46.800 --> 0:09:49.839 It's going to be significant. And I think the third 0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:53.080 item is that hydrogen and fuel cells are critical to 0:09:53.160 --> 0:09:58.400 national security. We're substitute for natural gas. I think that 0:09:58.559 --> 0:10:01.720 in the market, opportunities are large. You know, we can 0:10:01.800 --> 0:10:06.400 survive this short term dip in the stock price because 0:10:06.440 --> 0:10:10.320 the prospects long term are extremely positive and we have 0:10:10.360 --> 0:10:14.560 the balance sheet to support it. Balance sheet to support it. 0:10:14.800 --> 0:10:17.160 Talk to us a little bit about your cash, your debt. 0:10:17.240 --> 0:10:20.040 One of the big I think rescuers maybe for lack 0:10:20.080 --> 0:10:22.080 of a better term, when it comes to stock prices 0:10:22.160 --> 0:10:24.000 right now, is the amount of cushion, the amount of 0:10:24.040 --> 0:10:28.719 liquidity a company has talked to us about yours. Yeah, 0:10:28.760 --> 0:10:32.040 at the moment, we have over four billion dollars of cash. 0:10:32.480 --> 0:10:37.320 I foresee no need in the mid term to have 0:10:37.480 --> 0:10:39.600 to be going to the market at all for cash. 0:10:39.880 --> 0:10:42.120 And when I talk mid term, I'm talking three to 0:10:42.200 --> 0:10:49.280 four years, all right, So very interesting set up there. Um. 0:10:49.600 --> 0:10:54.200 Is hydrogen power fuel cell gonna be used for electric 0:10:54.240 --> 0:10:56.800 corvettes eventually? Does it go beyond I mean not the 0:10:56.800 --> 0:11:00.079 corvette specifically, but Andy, you get my meaning, to to 0:11:00.160 --> 0:11:02.839 go beyond the last mile vehicles that you currently power. 0:11:04.120 --> 0:11:06.800 Absolutely and I think you know, Plug spend a lot 0:11:06.840 --> 0:11:09.720 of time looking at Class eight vehicles and just to 0:11:09.800 --> 0:11:14.000 give you a feel, Walmart has about ten thousand Class 0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:18.480 eight vehicles. Moving to a hydrogen power Class eight vehicles. 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:23.080 We reduced their carbon output by two three tons per 0:11:23.160 --> 0:11:26.600 year per truck. That's a big number. Is to help 0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:30.479 them reach their goal of one giga ton per year reduction. 0:11:31.000 --> 0:11:34.600 So yes, we'll be there, Andy, Thanks so much. For 0:11:34.679 --> 0:11:37.160 joining US. Andy Marsh there is the CEO and president 0:11:37.840 --> 0:11:42.040 of Plug Power and UH as we have been discussing. 0:11:42.080 --> 0:11:45.000 They deal with hydrogen and fuel cell technology. They put, 0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:50.079 for example, UM the power into lift trucks for Walmart 0:11:50.240 --> 0:11:54.599 and for Amazon and for a number of other big companies. 0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:58.400 So UM plug Power. The ticker is p L Eugene 0:11:58.520 --> 0:12:01.720 right now is trading at twenty one dollars and nineties 0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:08.520 cents on the NAZ deck. Now let's talk China. I mean, 0:12:08.600 --> 0:12:13.439 this is the driver between everything we've seen happen today 0:12:13.440 --> 0:12:18.120 in equity markets, the fallout in commodities with oil down 0:12:18.280 --> 0:12:22.720 five per cent UM, even the UH fixed income markets. 0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:27.360 I mean, on Friday we were talking about which economists 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:31.959 could predict more rate rises from the Fed, right, I mean, 0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:34.640 no Mura said fifty basis points now and then seventy 0:12:34.960 --> 0:12:39.440 seventy five. Everyone else was saying fifty. Um. It was 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:42.560 like a contest. And now investors are clamoring to buy 0:12:42.600 --> 0:12:45.199 ten year debt. I mean, if you think the Fed's 0:12:45.200 --> 0:12:47.600 gonna raise rates that much, do you want to buy 0:12:47.679 --> 0:12:51.520 today's paper? Um? I guess you do if you are 0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:54.120 looking at what's coming out of only if you're freaked 0:12:54.120 --> 0:12:58.199 out about the possibility that she Jin Ping is gonna 0:12:58.280 --> 0:13:01.600 stick to his COVID zero Paul to see the economy 0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:05.920 be damned. Damien sass Hour joins us now from Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:13:05.960 --> 0:13:07.800 Is that what we're looking at, Damien, Well, look, I 0:13:07.800 --> 0:13:09.640 mean it's very difficult to kind of think about where 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:11.760 US treasury yields are going. I mean, I don't put 0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:14.319 any stock and where anyone is saying the dollar or 0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:15.880 treasuries are going to go from here. But look, I 0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:17.480 mean if you just look at where we are relative 0:13:17.559 --> 0:13:20.000 only a few months ago, I could not model a 0:13:20.040 --> 0:13:21.760 scenario in which you're going to get a positive toll 0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:23.800 to return out of US fixed income. I just couldn't 0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:26.640 do it. But today, given where yields are, it's definitely 0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:28.560 a lot more plausible. And so look, if you're looking 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:31.319 for safe havens in a world in which there are none, 0:13:31.400 --> 0:13:33.760 met um U s treasury is the long end of 0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:35.440 the curve is starting to look a little bit appealing. 0:13:36.440 --> 0:13:40.520 I'm very curious about the mobility data coming out of China. 0:13:40.640 --> 0:13:43.360 This is something that I think a lot of uh 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:46.920 Chinese strategist or China strategists like yourself, um are are 0:13:47.000 --> 0:13:50.920 looking at. But what I don't understand is that if 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:54.400 you have this mobility data that is really just a 0:13:54.400 --> 0:13:57.680 function of COVID lockdowns, what is the read through into 0:13:57.920 --> 0:14:00.280 exports for China, because that seems to be the ripple 0:14:00.320 --> 0:14:02.079 effect for the rest of the world. Well, I mean 0:14:02.080 --> 0:14:04.240 that you're hitting right on the screws. I mean, I'm cretty. 0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:06.040 I mean, if you want to talk about export data, 0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:07.839 this is the real reason that you want has come off. 0:14:07.840 --> 0:14:09.800 It's because of the move in the Japanese yen, right, 0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:12.199 I mean, we saw the Japanese yen has gotten absolutely 0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:14.320 crushed this month. And what that does is it makes 0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:17.319 Japanese exports that's that much more attractive relative to Asian 0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:20.600 peers like South Korea, like China, and certainly our friends 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:22.880 in Beijing took stock of this. And look, I mean 0:14:23.120 --> 0:14:26.520 twenty three big figure move on a dollar u on 0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:29.240 just this month. I mean that is a very very 0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:31.320 big move. And this is an economy where they have 0:14:31.400 --> 0:14:34.840 made it an absolute mandate to keep the volatility of 0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:37.920 dollar yuan to to a minimum. And look they're they're 0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:41.200 they're basically repricing it, They're basically rerating it. And look 0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:43.320 this is nothing new for China watchers, It's nothing new 0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:46.080 for emergeny market investors. This happens once every what three 0:14:46.160 --> 0:14:48.400 or five years, and you know, on the back of 0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:51.440 it you see something like China high yield debt basically 0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:53.360 lose fifty percent of its value, which we have, or 0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:56.800 the equity market lose of its value year to date. Look, 0:14:56.840 --> 0:14:58.480 you have to you have to weather that storm. This 0:14:58.560 --> 0:14:59.840 is just the way it is when you're investing in 0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:02.520 and A. But look, if you are looking at the 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:04.960 technicals and I hate to look at technicals and and 0:15:05.120 --> 0:15:06.560 use that as a as as a sort of a 0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:09.040 written with which to invest, I mean, you look at 0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:11.200 margin lending, it's it's it's at a very low level. 0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:14.040 If you look at um, if you look at liquidity levels, 0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:16.480 you know, I mean they're they're they're they're starting to improve. 0:15:16.520 --> 0:15:18.400 So you know, you're starting to see you know, some 0:15:18.440 --> 0:15:21.480 people kind of bottom feeding into Chinese equities. But for me, 0:15:21.960 --> 0:15:23.480 you know, the risk is just not there. I mean, 0:15:23.480 --> 0:15:25.720 despite the light investor positioning, I mean, there's just so 0:15:25.840 --> 0:15:28.520 much risk behind it. And given what's going on here 0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:29.960 with the A d R listings in the US and 0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:31.440 the fact that many of then me get you know, 0:15:31.480 --> 0:15:33.960 pushed out to Hong Kong. It's just not a recipe 0:15:34.000 --> 0:15:35.840 for success of them. I mean I read in a 0:15:35.840 --> 0:15:40.400 Bloomberg story a couple of hours ago that in Shanghai 0:15:41.480 --> 0:15:45.520 workers in hasmat suits fanning out over the weekend to 0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:50.360 install steal fences around buildings with positive COVID cases. Well, 0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:53.680 what's the imagery to me is shocking. But my question 0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:58.160 is how does the PBOC react, you know, how does 0:15:58.240 --> 0:16:05.280 the um fiscal stimulus piece uh coming sort of balance 0:16:05.400 --> 0:16:10.080 that on the teeter totter of COVID zero versus economic growth. Well, 0:16:10.120 --> 0:16:12.680 China has been very successful with the total social financing 0:16:12.720 --> 0:16:15.160 and injecting fiscal stimulus into the economy and doing it 0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:17.400 in the right way. But you're absolutely right this economy, 0:16:17.400 --> 0:16:19.920 I mean, investors have been waiting waiting for Godot I guess, 0:16:20.280 --> 0:16:22.680 waiting for the PBOC to come in and start cutting 0:16:22.760 --> 0:16:24.640 rates and for me, you know, what they have not 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:27.120 been able to achieve is, you know, to really get 0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:28.640 in front of the curve, to really show that the 0:16:28.680 --> 0:16:31.680 monetary support is sufficient to offset the GDP decline. So 0:16:31.720 --> 0:16:33.960 what are we calling for, as we were calling for 0:16:34.040 --> 0:16:36.160 last year, We're calling for more triple our cuts. I 0:16:36.160 --> 0:16:37.880 think we're calling for something on the order of seventy 0:16:37.880 --> 0:16:39.760 five BIPs of cuts this year. We're also calling for 0:16:39.800 --> 0:16:42.440 another thirty BIPs of cuts to the medium to lending, 0:16:42.520 --> 0:16:45.560 the medium term lending facility. This is all good, but 0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:48.040 certainly it just doesn't look like it's going to be enough. 0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:50.080 And if you just look at the reserves in China 0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:52.760 three point one three point two trillion, it's they've got 0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:56.000 tons of cushion there. One would think that they'd rather 0:16:56.080 --> 0:16:58.680 not dip into that in order to supplement the economy, 0:16:58.720 --> 0:17:01.640 that they'd rather you know, in age and monetary easing 0:17:01.680 --> 0:17:03.680 in order to do it. But look, the verdict is 0:17:03.720 --> 0:17:05.560 still at right now you've got China U S yield 0:17:05.560 --> 0:17:08.040 differentials in verted. You should not see that. It's something 0:17:08.080 --> 0:17:11.080 we rarely see. It's obviously being driven by US treasury 0:17:11.160 --> 0:17:14.080 yields on one hand, but rest assured you know the 0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:16.359 dollar you on cross rate follows that. Very few I 0:17:16.400 --> 0:17:19.119 think that bounces back by the way I do. I 0:17:19.119 --> 0:17:21.400 absolutely do. I think if if it's right now, basically 0:17:21.480 --> 0:17:24.800 ideas you can get more buying US tenure treasuries than 0:17:24.840 --> 0:17:26.960 you can buying ten year debt in China, I think 0:17:27.040 --> 0:17:29.280 I think that China's hand is being forced here by 0:17:29.280 --> 0:17:30.919 the market. I think they're going to have to slash 0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:33.080 rates in order to protect their economy. I mean, look, 0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:35.280 you know it's a very different economy, right, and so 0:17:35.720 --> 0:17:38.320 you know it remains to be seen. But if you 0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:40.119 just look at all the health care signs, you look 0:17:40.160 --> 0:17:43.000 at the entre offshore are China un basis where at 0:17:43.000 --> 0:17:45.000 three hundred bits, that's like a two and two and 0:17:45.040 --> 0:17:47.239 a half standard deviation move or something like that. If 0:17:47.240 --> 0:17:50.640 you look at one month delta risk reversals on dollar 0:17:50.760 --> 0:17:53.840 you on, I mean they are screaming of dollar call buying. 0:17:53.920 --> 0:17:56.359 You know, you've got Cinepeg, You've got PetroChina. You know 0:17:56.359 --> 0:18:00.879 their big energy exporters all uh purchase protection against the 0:18:01.000 --> 0:18:03.240 rising dollars. So you know, the concern is there, and 0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:06.639 I think Beijing is finally getting the getting the hints hopefully, Damien. 0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:09.199 Thanks so much for joining us, Damian Sassaur. They're from 0:18:09.320 --> 0:18:12.280 Bloomberg Intelligence. By the way, dropping a pop culture reference. 0:18:12.560 --> 0:18:16.520 You can't do that with Critty. She's only what have 0:18:16.600 --> 0:18:21.800 you seen waiting for good? But to class she hasn't 0:18:21.840 --> 0:18:27.360 seen Armageddon and she hasn't seen waiting for good. Have confused? Confused? 0:18:27.520 --> 0:18:30.479 Know what you're from Texas? That has nothing to do 0:18:30.560 --> 0:18:31.920 with it. You know what I've seen top gun and 0:18:31.920 --> 0:18:35.000 that's all that matters. Point, fair point, Damian, Thanks so 0:18:35.119 --> 0:18:44.080 much for joining us. We had so much to talk 0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:46.720 about with Shinali Bastik. I was thinking about you this 0:18:46.760 --> 0:18:50.840 weekend because well I read your story The Mooch, which 0:18:50.880 --> 0:18:55.920 I loved, and then the plot can saga continues unbelievable. 0:18:56.480 --> 0:18:59.800 If you don't know Gabe plotting is the I guess 0:18:59.800 --> 0:19:03.360 he is considered like genius hedge fund manager who ran 0:19:03.440 --> 0:19:07.159 Melvin Capital and got destroyed by Wall Street bets and 0:19:07.240 --> 0:19:12.560 the kind of uh bro vests on Reddit, and now 0:19:12.760 --> 0:19:15.800 he came out with the He had the gall last 0:19:15.800 --> 0:19:17.320 week to come out and say, you know what, I'm 0:19:17.320 --> 0:19:21.560 gonna start charging my investors more. Yeah, is that right? Basically, 0:19:22.280 --> 0:19:24.640 so he was going to reboot his fund and now 0:19:24.680 --> 0:19:26.879 he's going back to the drawing board. He apologized. He 0:19:26.880 --> 0:19:29.239 said he we hear the phrase reboot a lot, but 0:19:29.600 --> 0:19:32.479 all I was reading was two and twenty. Yeah. Yeah, 0:19:32.520 --> 0:19:35.040 I mean that's the thing. You can't just reboot by 0:19:35.119 --> 0:19:38.199 pretending everything else didn't happen in the past. That that is, 0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:40.800 if I had to draw this down to one line, 0:19:40.800 --> 0:19:42.600 it's that. And the reason I wanted to kind of 0:19:42.680 --> 0:19:46.200 draw these stories together is that actually Anthony Scaramucci's firm, 0:19:46.280 --> 0:19:50.680 Skybridge was an investor in Melvin Capital. So yeah, really 0:19:50.720 --> 0:19:53.680 that's cool. So yeah, well that's the thing. These companies 0:19:53.720 --> 0:19:56.200 are very intertwined. And when it comes to Gay plot again, 0:19:56.320 --> 0:19:58.680 he's the next generation of fund managers, right, it's him, 0:19:58.680 --> 0:20:01.320 It's stand sometime, it's all of these younger stars that 0:20:01.359 --> 0:20:04.840 are hitting their first big sets of issues. And if 0:20:04.840 --> 0:20:07.879 you look at Gay Platkin, he got caught up last 0:20:07.960 --> 0:20:10.400 year in that Reddit saga in the short squeeze, then 0:20:10.480 --> 0:20:13.480 this year in the market draw downs, a lot of 0:20:13.520 --> 0:20:15.760 pain among him and his peers. By the way, I 0:20:15.800 --> 0:20:18.720 take back the term bro investors. That was not fair. 0:20:19.240 --> 0:20:21.000 There are a lot of good bros in the world, 0:20:21.119 --> 0:20:26.280 and I don't mean to to to smear their good 0:20:26.400 --> 0:20:32.920 name with bets. Well here's the problem. But the mooch 0:20:33.000 --> 0:20:36.199 fits I mean, right, well, here's the thing. I mean, 0:20:36.200 --> 0:20:38.800 there's some bros involved, yes, of course, but however, a 0:20:38.840 --> 0:20:41.359 lot of these are you know, privy fund funds that 0:20:41.359 --> 0:20:44.840 are privy to big institutional investors that are very unbrolike 0:20:44.960 --> 0:20:48.240 and in fact don't love the bro behavior. So it 0:20:48.960 --> 0:20:52.800 is definitely like this idea that you know, I'll even 0:20:52.800 --> 0:20:55.480 read from our story Sussex Partners selects hedge funds on 0:20:55.520 --> 0:20:58.960 behalf of clients big institutional investors. He they set told 0:20:58.960 --> 0:21:02.679 Bloomberg that resetting high watermarks at new higher levels, it 0:21:02.680 --> 0:21:05.840 ain't gonna cut it right, So you can't just start 0:21:05.880 --> 0:21:08.840 over here after after some batt It's not hard for 0:21:08.880 --> 0:21:12.439 me to believe that Scaramucci and Melvin are in bed together. 0:21:13.280 --> 0:21:16.880 I was shocked that when I first heard, I think 0:21:16.880 --> 0:21:19.000 a couple of weeks ago, that Assault was going to 0:21:19.080 --> 0:21:21.199 go down to the Bahamas and hang out with my 0:21:21.280 --> 0:21:26.080 boy Sam Bankman Freed. These two people don't seem like 0:21:26.160 --> 0:21:31.440 peas in a pod, right, Anthony Scaramucci, who worked for 0:21:31.520 --> 0:21:35.320 Donald Trump for eleven days, he was too Trump to 0:21:35.440 --> 0:21:39.840 stay with the Trump administration. He's getting together the opposite. 0:21:39.920 --> 0:21:46.159 Actually super genius with this incredible like m I T Havenford, Loss, 0:21:46.280 --> 0:21:51.720 Sand Bankman Freed and by the way, liberal Biden donor, 0:21:52.240 --> 0:21:54.760 they's hanging out with the Mouci Yeah, this is interesting. 0:21:54.800 --> 0:21:57.560 I think that that's you know, because Anthony Scaramucci had 0:21:57.560 --> 0:21:59.600 spent some time in the Trump White House. There's this 0:21:59.640 --> 0:22:02.439 concept that he is, you know, trumpy, I guess. But 0:22:02.520 --> 0:22:05.159 the thing is, now, in addition to setting up this 0:22:05.200 --> 0:22:07.720 new conference, you know, we know Sam Bank from Freed 0:22:07.800 --> 0:22:10.240 is a huge Democratic donor and a huge donor to politics. 0:22:10.280 --> 0:22:13.119 We know that Anthony Scaramucci actually is part of a 0:22:13.119 --> 0:22:17.320 pack that's actually donating money or contributing money to both 0:22:17.400 --> 0:22:20.360 Democrats and Republicans. I guess they all they all pay 0:22:20.400 --> 0:22:23.280 off politicians on both sides of the Aisland. The idea 0:22:23.400 --> 0:22:28.200 here that they have is to really contribute to especially 0:22:28.200 --> 0:22:31.840 Democratic politicians who are pro crypto. They think it's going 0:22:31.880 --> 0:22:34.720 to be a single issue vote into the midterms, into 0:22:34.800 --> 0:22:37.280 the next set of elections. So you know, yes, they 0:22:37.320 --> 0:22:39.440