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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Mollie John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds and Donald Trump says Taylor Swift endorsing

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Speaker 1: President Biden when she disloyal to the man who made

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Speaker 1: her so much money.

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Speaker 2: We have such a great show today.

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Speaker 1: MSNBC's own Meeker Brazinski tells us about her journey to

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Speaker 1: help women, and she also tells the story of how

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Speaker 1: she mentored me. Then we'll talk to polster Adam Carlson

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Speaker 1: about the flaws and polling.

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Speaker 2: In the twenty twenty four election.

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Speaker 1: But first we have the host of the Enemy's List,

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Speaker 1: the one, the only, the Lincoln Projects owned Rick Wilson.

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Speaker 2: Welcome back to.

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Speaker 1: Fast Politics, My best ye Rick Wilson.

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Speaker 3: Good afternoon, good morning, good evening, or whatever time this

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Speaker 3: podcast airs in your part of the world.

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Speaker 4: I'm glad to be back with you.

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Speaker 1: Oh no, We're like giddy in this horrible, unbearable way.

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Speaker 3: I planned today as we record this, to be unbearable

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Speaker 3: all damn day.

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Speaker 2: I prefer insufferable.

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Speaker 3: Well I could be insufferable too, you can do it all.

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Speaker 3: I just finished writing this piece about McConnell that hasn't

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Speaker 3: gone up yet.

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Speaker 4: But you know what, I'm just fucking done. I'm done

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Speaker 4: with these people.

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Speaker 1: Let's have a moment here. First, we got a lot,

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Speaker 1: a lot of fucking bullshit to talk about. I want

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Speaker 1: to start with the very bad, no good week that

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Speaker 1: the Republicans in the House of Representatives had.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, let's go through it one step at a time.

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Speaker 3: When you get to the first part of it of

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Speaker 3: Trump not being immune from prosecution, which you know, it

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Speaker 3: seems like that happened like a month and a half ago,

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Speaker 3: but it was Monday. When you look at that decision alone,

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Speaker 3: it is a nuclear bomb going off on the January

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Speaker 3: sixth case. Trump really really was depending right some method

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Speaker 3: to spin that case down, because look, he knows that

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Speaker 3: gutlass Merrick Garland is eventually going to say to Jack Smith, Okay, Boss,

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Speaker 3: time's up. I gotta call it. He's the Republican nominee.

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Speaker 3: We can't be we can't be seen as biased.

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Speaker 2: Yahh. We have two minutes to trash Mayre Garland.

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Speaker 3: You call me anytime, day or night, now, trash Mere Garland.

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Speaker 3: I'm so frickin' done.

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Speaker 1: Do all special councils have to be a Republican like

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Speaker 1: you know, there are a lot of fucking Democrats.

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Speaker 3: Out there, generally speaking, the Special Councils of our recent memory. Durham, who,

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Speaker 3: aside from magnificent facial hair, seems to have been an

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Speaker 3: utter fucking legal chuckle fuck of the first order. You

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Speaker 3: know that the infamous Durham Report was going to reshape

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Speaker 3: America forever are and it turned out to be nothing.

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Speaker 3: This guy or Hut or Hoop or whatever his fucking

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Speaker 3: name is. I'm sorry, but the level of unprofessionalism in

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Speaker 3: that report, the level of editorializing in that report, I'm

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Speaker 3: not the first or the last to make this comparison.

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Speaker 3: This was very much like Jim Comey, I don't have evidence,

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Speaker 3: but I'm gonna go out and slap him around a

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Speaker 3: little bit, you know. I think Harwood said that yesterday,

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Speaker 3: and I just it's just like, there's nothing, there's nothing

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Speaker 3: in this report that is more important than the finding

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Speaker 3: that they're not going to bring criminal charges against him,

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Speaker 3: set aside the editorializing bullshit, Okay, and they were Biden's

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Speaker 3: handwritten personal notes that were expos facto classified in some

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Speaker 3: of the cases. The real drama that they're trying to

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Speaker 3: make out of this thing is.

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Speaker 5: Oh Buden Nosino, He's drooling in his porridge. And I

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Speaker 5: will say this, I liked angry Biden last night. I

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Speaker 5: liked angry Biden going out there and knocking the shit

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Speaker 5: out of some of those reporters. We love our friends

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Speaker 5: in the press, but that instinct to bend over backwards

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Speaker 5: to show that you're not biased by being dis when

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Speaker 5: you get a chance to smash Biden a little bit.

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Speaker 5: It struck me at least as a bit much because

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Speaker 5: Donnie mumblefuck over there, who thinks he ran against Barack

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Speaker 5: Obama and who thinks that Nikki Hayley was in charge

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Speaker 5: of the capital on one six? I am sorry. I

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Speaker 5: want to see them bang Trump with questions about his

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Speaker 5: mental acuity, because he is much much shakier mentally than

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Speaker 5: Joe Biden is by a good stretch.

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Speaker 1: Well, I have this theory that if you're defending yourselfs

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Speaker 1: so I never defend myself. But I will say one thing,

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Speaker 1: which is her worked in the Trump administration.

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Speaker 3: That was a choice made by Merrick Garland. I'm sorry.

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Speaker 3: I know everybody had this soft spot for Merrick Garland

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Speaker 3: because of the whole situation with.

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Speaker 2: He's not a Supreme Court jest Rush, I mean, fuck him.

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Speaker 6: By the way, I'm not a Supreme Court justice either,

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Speaker 6: and could should have okay, but he is so cautious

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Speaker 6: and so programmatic, and I know, Look, do I want

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Speaker 6: the Attorney General of the United States behaving like a

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Speaker 6: Bill Barr?

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Speaker 3: No?

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Speaker 4: I do not.

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Speaker 3: But do I also want the Attorney General of the

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Speaker 3: United States behaving like he's scared of his own shadow

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Speaker 3: and when the bad guys are aggressively pursuing epic fuckery?

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Speaker 4: No, I do not.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that is really such an important point.

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Speaker 1: The Democrats continue to play by the twenty twelve rules,

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Speaker 1: and Republicans have weaponized the entire federal government. So this

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Speaker 1: week the House Republicans tried to impeach a Cabinet secretary

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Speaker 1: because they didn't like what he was doing. It didn't

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Speaker 1: work because they can't do math. But I mean, come on.

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Speaker 3: The absolute epic dumbfuckery of the Republicans in the House.

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Speaker 3: And if you were in an ordinary situation, the Speaker

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Speaker 3: would slink away in shame. He would go and leave

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Speaker 3: to spend more time with his son's porn app on

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Speaker 3: his phone, whatever the hell it was. So humiliating, and

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Speaker 3: the guy ran out of there like a scalded dog.

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Speaker 3: I mean he ran out of there like his dick

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Speaker 3: was on fire. And honestly, this whole thing was atrial

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Speaker 3: run for impeaching Joe Biden, which is their biggest desire,

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Speaker 3: their greatest passion.

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Speaker 2: And they don't have the votes because math is hard.

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Speaker 3: And they're going to have even fewer votes soon because

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Speaker 3: more Republicans are pulling the switch.

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Speaker 4: They're getting out of there, They're running.

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Speaker 1: Here's a question I have for you, So Republicans, Maga

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Speaker 1: Mike Johnson been in the House since twenty sixteen. I

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Speaker 1: mean I've been in the House longer than Mike Johnson's

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Speaker 1: been in the House. This guy, he has decided that

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Speaker 1: he's going to put these bills on the floor and

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Speaker 1: just pray to Jesus that he has the votes.

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Speaker 2: Turns out, Jesus is not a vote whip.

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Speaker 3: Here's my sequence of House speakers I have either known

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Speaker 3: or dealt with or been around for. Okay, Jim Wright,

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Speaker 3: Tom Foley, Dennis Haster, Nancy Pelosi, John Bayner, Paul Ryan,

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Speaker 3: Kevin McCarthy. You know the difference of all of these

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Speaker 3: people and Moses Johnson.

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Speaker 2: They can do math.

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Speaker 3: They could do math, they could count votes, they knew

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Speaker 3: when they had the votes and when they didn't. And

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Speaker 3: the number one, the single most important rule of all

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Speaker 3: as speaker, never bring a vote to the floor unless

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Speaker 3: you're going to win. This is something they beat into

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Speaker 3: your head on day one of speaker school. And these

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Speaker 3: guys just don't get it. They just didn't understand it.

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Speaker 3: And I'm sorry, I have very little pity for him.

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Speaker 3: He embarrassed himself.

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Speaker 2: So he brought the MAJORCIS vote. It lost.

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Speaker 1: Then he went and brought this Israel funding standalone.

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Speaker 2: It lost. One of the things I want to ask

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Speaker 2: you is like, so here you have the.

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Speaker 1: Five vulnerable Republicans like Mike Lawler, that fucking guy, and

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Speaker 1: these guys, and you have about five or six in California,

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Speaker 1: and you have Republicans with a one vote majority. What

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Speaker 1: happens when Mike Lawler goes back to the Hudson Valley

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Speaker 1: and is like, yes, I voted to impeach the Cabinet

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Speaker 1: secretary first time in one hundred years. Yes, I voted

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Speaker 1: from Israel Aid standalone, which, by the way, Israelis didn't want.

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Speaker 3: What happens then none of these guys. Okay, not one

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Speaker 3: of these guys in that Biden eighteen has a argument

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Speaker 3: to make that they're not all on the crazy train.

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Speaker 3: Every single one of them has to go home and say, yeah,

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Speaker 3: by the way, I know we didn't do anything on X,

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Speaker 3: Y or Z issue that you care about, but we

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Speaker 3: did vote to impeach the DHS secretary. How do you

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Speaker 3: take that out there? That's a bold strategy, Cotton, to

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Speaker 3: go out and say we're going to go out and

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Speaker 3: campaign on the fact that we impeached. It's so obscure,

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Speaker 3: it's so in the weeds, it's so small ball crazy.

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Speaker 3: I'm just like, who's running this thing? And the answer

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Speaker 3: is apparently nobody, because if someone with a brain.

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Speaker 2: No, I think the answer is Donald Trump.

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Speaker 4: That's true.

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Speaker 3: Let's not forget they wanted to make him Speaker of

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Speaker 3: the House, right, I.

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Speaker 1: Mean, that would have been amazing. But there's going to

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Speaker 1: be their problem with the R and T chair. They

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Speaker 1: want Rana out.

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Speaker 2: Rana.

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Speaker 1: This is a woman who has spent the last whatever

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Speaker 1: ten years basically just destroying herself.

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Speaker 2: Proving the adage that a guy I know.

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Speaker 1: Once came up with everything Trump touches. Does this Rana.

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Speaker 1: This is the worst job, right, you have to raise

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Speaker 1: money for the Republican Party. Donald Trump is spending all

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Speaker 1: his money on lawyers, and then I guess he's gonna

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Speaker 1: have to put some money in this eighty three million

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Speaker 1: dollar bond, right, and then he's gonna have another one

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Speaker 1: hundred million, two hundred three hundred million coming up for

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Speaker 1: the fraud case. So Ronald McDaniel has to raise money,

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Speaker 1: convince big donors. It's not going to Trump's legal fees.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is a terrible job. So they're going

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Speaker 1: to remove her and put someone else who is less

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Speaker 1: good at fundraising in this job.

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Speaker 2: How does this work?

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Speaker 3: Laura Trump is going to be the best Republican Party

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Speaker 3: chairman ever, and I hope she stays there for one

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Speaker 3: hundred years.

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Speaker 1: Then Eric is calling people asking them for money. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you had a speaker, and again I am no fan

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Speaker 1: of Kevin McCarthy, but but you had someone who sort

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Speaker 1: of knew how to do it a little bit right

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Speaker 1: then Tom.

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Speaker 2: Emmers wanted to do it.

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Speaker 1: Trump was like, not Maga enough, Let's get someone who's

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Speaker 1: really incompetent. Because that's the true spirit of Maga erag.

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Speaker 3: I can see so many outcomes of selecting a different

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Speaker 3: RNC chairman that end up in clownish disaster. And every

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Speaker 3: single one of the people that could take that job

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Speaker 3: that would make Trump happy, every single one of them

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Speaker 3: are going to do one thing. Shovel money back to

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump and every penny that small dollar donors put

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Speaker 3: into the RNC right now or big dollar donors. By

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Speaker 3: the way, this is rnc's major donor season right now.

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Speaker 3: If this was the Bush or Reagan administrations right now,

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Speaker 3: the RNC chairman, whether it was Michael Steele or whomever,

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Speaker 3: would be out saying, Okay, we're going to do the convention,

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Speaker 3: so at and t we'd like a half a million dollars.

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Speaker 3: And Democrats do this too. Right about now, right everybody's

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Speaker 3: doing their major fundraising. I gotta tell you, if you're

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Speaker 3: a major fundraiser, major dollar fundraiser, a corporate board type,

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Speaker 3: you're thinking, to hell, I'm putting a damn dime into

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Speaker 3: that rat hole. And that's why the RNC is broke

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Speaker 3: right now. That's why they're broke. When I was working

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Speaker 3: for Bush in the two thousand cycle, I think at

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Speaker 3: this point the RNC had something like one hundred and

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Speaker 3: eighty million dollars in the bank. This is nuts that

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Speaker 3: they have that they have eight million dollars cash on

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Speaker 3: hand and.

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Speaker 1: Then a line of credit because you know things are

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Speaker 1: going great when you need a line of credit.

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Speaker 3: But they owe on the eight something like five and

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Speaker 3: so that's why they're out getting a line of credit.

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Speaker 3: At this point, they're gonna be out like getting getting

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Speaker 3: a title loan of their cars.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's so bad and we shouldn't make fun

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Speaker 1: of them, but I think we should because fuck them. So,

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Speaker 1: I mean, what is amazing to me is you have

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Speaker 1: a Republican president chill candidate who was an incumbent, who

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Speaker 1: has such a tight grip on the party and also

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Speaker 1: everyone else is so fucking scared of him that he

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Speaker 1: now controls the House. Right, he's fighting with McConnell in

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Speaker 1: the goal of controlling the Senate. They don't even have

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Speaker 1: the majority, but he wants McConnell at.

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Speaker 4: And by the way they get they may get that.

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Speaker 6: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I think McConnell's like, fuck this shit, don't you think.

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Speaker 4: Well, look, I think he'll finish his term.

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Speaker 1: Right, He's not going to do the Kevin Ray leaves

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Speaker 1: in January.

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Speaker 4: Right, although I will say this.

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Speaker 3: You know a lot of McConnell people, A lot of

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Speaker 3: McConnell folks that are out there are like you. He

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Speaker 3: could rally one last time. I'm like, if the motherfucker

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Speaker 3: was going to rally, he should have rallied on January sixth,

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Speaker 3: when there was a moment where he had a majority

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Speaker 3: of the Republicans in the caucus, A majority of the

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Speaker 3: Republicans in the caucus were with him, and every Democrat,

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Speaker 3: of course, and he wouldn't do it.

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Speaker 1: Can we just go to the alternative universe for a

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Speaker 1: second where McConnell whips those votes. Trump gets impeached and

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Speaker 1: it is clear that he can never run again. Republicans

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Speaker 1: fast forward. They are unstoppable. They have Nicki haleynomine. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they did this to themselves and to all of us.

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Speaker 3: They chose this path. Here's one of the things that

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Speaker 3: I think is really important to remember. The mob terrifies everybody.

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Speaker 3: It terrifies Mitch McConnell, it terrifies Mike Johnson, it terrifies

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Speaker 3: every Republican out there. They're all petrified of Trump and

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Speaker 3: his mob and the idea of their violence and their

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Speaker 3: cruelty and their willingness to use violence and force against people.

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Speaker 3: You know, you want to know why the Supreme Court

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Speaker 3: was so cautious yesterday or the other day in their hearings.

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Speaker 3: It's because they're worried about becoming targets of the damn mob.

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Speaker 3: They don't want to be targets of the mob.

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Speaker 1: Shay Moss Ruby Friedman, I mean they ruin your life.

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Speaker 2: I mean that's the you know what, They're really scary.

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Speaker 3: They are scary, and you know what, and the people

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Speaker 3: that will not put up with their shit are you know,

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Speaker 3: assholes like me dragged out feed first. But the intimidation

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Speaker 3: is where that alternative universe failed. We could have been

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Speaker 3: in a different world, we could have been in a

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Speaker 3: better place. But you know, that day Mitch McConnell said, Nope,

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Speaker 3: we're not going to whip votes for this. It was

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Speaker 3: for frontalers with the ball up marks are not Oh no, well,

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Speaker 3: polish one. The voters have already spoken. I mean could

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Speaker 3: and as one of his aides said, what's the harm

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Speaker 3: in humoring them?

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Speaker 2: Right? And I think the level of anxiety right now

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Speaker 2: is pretty high.

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Speaker 3: Oh, I would certainly say that's the case. It's pretty high,

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Speaker 3: and there are very few people who feel confident right

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Speaker 3: now in American democracy, and you know what, and that

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Speaker 3: kind of sucks. That's kind of a really shit place

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Speaker 3: to be of not being confident in a nation that

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Speaker 3: had a pretty good run of people understanding that while

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Speaker 3: it was messy and loud and complicated and stupid, our

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Speaker 3: country was really fundamentally strong. And now most people don't

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Speaker 3: share that view anymore. And again it's because of Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump exactly.

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Speaker 1: I also want to mention that there is some really

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Speaker 1: fucked up shit going on with the Montana Center rays.

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Speaker 7: Oh, Matt Rosendale's I'm in back baby, Okay.

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Speaker 1: So Matt Rosendale is like one of the few people

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Speaker 1: who is really just so bad. I mean, he's like

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Speaker 1: doctor Oz but without the is.

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Speaker 4: He one of the few Molly I think there are.

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Speaker 2: Let's be honest, you though, he is pink Maga.

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Speaker 4: He is high tone Maga.

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Speaker 1: So he was indorsed by Maga Mike Johnson, and then

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Speaker 1: Maga Mike Johnson thought better of it and said that

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Speaker 1: he was unindorsed.

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Speaker 2: It's been a bad week for Mike Johnson.

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Speaker 3: Apparently, Mike Johnson's not an ace at picking them as

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Speaker 3: they say this has not been missed on a lot

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Speaker 3: of people. Now that Maga Mike is, shall we say,

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Speaker 3: less less perceptive as a political analyst than he might

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Speaker 3: otherwise be incredible. You can't wake up in the morning

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Speaker 3: these days and expect anything but more of this chaos.

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Speaker 8: So only two hundred and sixty nine days ago, that's right,

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Speaker 8: that's right, that's right.

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Speaker 2: Did you know?

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Speaker 1: Rick Wilson and I are bringing together some friends for

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Speaker 1: a general election kickoff party at City Winery in New

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Speaker 1: York on March sixth.

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Speaker 2: We're going to be.

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Speaker 1: Chatting right after Super Tuesday about what's going on, and

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Speaker 1: it is going to probably be the one fun night

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Speaker 1: for the next eighty days. If you're in the New

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Speaker 1: York area, please come by and join us. You can

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Speaker 1: go to City Winery's website and grab a ticket. Mika

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Speaker 1: Brazinski is the host of Morning Joe and Morning Mika

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Speaker 1: as well as the.

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Speaker 2: Founder of the Know Your Value movement.

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Speaker 1: Welcome back to Fast Politics, Mika, yay hi hi.

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Speaker 2: I am so excited to have you.

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Speaker 1: And this is one of these things where you're doing

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Speaker 1: this mentorship project.

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Speaker 9: Yes, I am.

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Speaker 2: You mentored me so.

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Speaker 1: And I saw this, I was like, wait, so let's

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Speaker 1: talk about First of all, I love the idea that

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Speaker 1: you have to be over fifty for this one.

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Speaker 9: Category to get on the list. Yeah, you're too young.

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Speaker 9: You're too young.

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Speaker 2: It's like finally something I'm too young for.

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Speaker 1: So the thing I think people don't know is you've

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Speaker 1: been doing this for a long time.

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Speaker 2: And this did not start as a glamorous project.

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Speaker 9: No it didn't. But can I say a story about

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Speaker 9: you first always, and then we'll talk about how non

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Speaker 9: glamorous this was. So somebody once told Mollie that she

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Speaker 9: would never be something. Yeah, and she told me that

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Speaker 9: story just in passing blah blah blah blah blah, like

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Speaker 9: it was, you know, I ate a sandwich and someone

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Speaker 9: told me I would never be a I don't know,

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Speaker 9: on air contributor or something. And I thought to myself,

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Speaker 9: she just said that like she was eating a sandwich

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Speaker 9: like that was okay, and it was like hard for

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Speaker 9: the course. It was just something that she decided that

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Speaker 9: she would accept. And I thought to myself, that is

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Speaker 9: fed up. Like right now, I don't know this woman

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Speaker 9: that well, but I need to talk to her. We

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Speaker 9: need to have a little talk, and then she needs

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Speaker 9: to have a little talk with that special person. That's all.

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Speaker 9: That's all I'm gonna say. That was my mentoring. You're welcome, yes,

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Speaker 9: and let me just say you were right.

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Speaker 1: So I want you to talk about the beginnings of

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Speaker 1: Know Your Value, because like this is really actually a

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Speaker 1: passion project.

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Speaker 7: It is.

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Speaker 9: I mean, I don't even know if it was twelve

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Speaker 9: or thirteen years ago, A long time ago. I sort

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Speaker 9: of realized that I didn't know my value, and I

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Speaker 9: started documenting all the disasters in my career where I

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Speaker 9: was so close to making great money or getting a

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Speaker 9: great promotion, and I would literally be the person who

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Speaker 9: made sure it didn't happen, or who made sure that

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Speaker 9: I was the first person to get a job at

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Speaker 9: a certain level was only paid like twenty percent what

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Speaker 9: the last people who had that job was. Like, I

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Speaker 9: was so lucky to be there, and I realized I

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Speaker 9: was in a cycle. So as I started documenting these things,

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Speaker 9: and then I had my own like real life equal

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Speaker 9: pay battle at MSNBC, I decided to write the book

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Speaker 9: Know Your Value. I wrote in real time what my

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Speaker 9: experience at MSNBC was and actually read it on the

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Speaker 9: floor of Phil Griffin's office. He was the president of

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Speaker 9: MSNBC at the time. He Joe and I sat together

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Speaker 9: and read the manuscript and I thought, I'm so fired.

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Speaker 9: But I also thought, he's not telling me I'm not

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Speaker 9: publishing this, like he knows that I walked the relationship

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Speaker 9: we had at that point that was not coming in

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Speaker 9: asking for permission, but I wanted him to have a

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Speaker 9: heads up and to see it, and also to have

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Speaker 9: a chance to sort of make sure I wasn't missing

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Speaker 9: an angle on something since it was so close to

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Speaker 9: the network. And the funny story about Phil is he

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Speaker 9: was like, Meca, Meka, I don't say man, Joe, you know,

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Speaker 9: I say no, Joe like and I was like, Phil,

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Speaker 9: I was trying to protect you. He's like, that's not

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Speaker 9: how I talk. You gotta put the F bomb back

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Speaker 9: in there. And I was like, this is your one change. Okay. Anyhow,

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Speaker 9: but the book was released and it immediately was on

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Speaker 9: New York Times and all these business lists, and it

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Speaker 9: took off in a way that I could have never expected,

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Speaker 9: where people were like stopping us on the street. I

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Speaker 9: read your book. I got to raise I read your book.

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Speaker 9: I got a divorce. I read your book. I changed

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Speaker 9: my life. I read your book. I got a raise

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Speaker 9: I have heard hundreds of times because knowing your value

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Speaker 9: is not just about getting value back financially, which I

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Speaker 9: definitely put the map out for that, but it's about

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Speaker 9: getting value back in every relationship, which is why you

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Speaker 9: stopped me cold when you told me that someone had

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Speaker 9: said what they said to you and you just accepted it.

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Speaker 9: That was not value back. That was like give me

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Speaker 9: you like a turd on a platter, okay, and you're going, oh,

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Speaker 9: that looks so good. No, so like it's learning how

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Speaker 9: to say it. And so when I realized that was

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Speaker 9: that message was so resonant and there was such a

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Speaker 9: hunger for it, I started doing events and I actually,

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Speaker 9: you know, went rogue and started on my own event

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Speaker 9: in Hartford, Connecticut, just to see if anybody would show up,

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Speaker 9: and those three words they filled the room. And then some.

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Speaker 1: Will you please tell the story about what happened in

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Speaker 1: Hartford because you've told the story to me and it

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Speaker 1: feels like such an important moment.

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Speaker 9: Well, it was incredible. Actually, I had put together of

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Speaker 9: the event with my producers Duby McDowell and Robin Jenris,

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Speaker 9: and we had a couple of weeks to put it

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Speaker 9: together because I do everything in a rush, and I'd

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Speaker 9: say three weeks before it started, we had at the

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Speaker 9: Marriotte Downtown Marriette Marquee in Hartford. I had used my

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Speaker 9: sort of notoriety as a local host from fifteen years earlier,

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Speaker 9: and I had gotten a lot of sort of just

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Speaker 9: Gail King, who used to work in Hartford. She was

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Speaker 9: lined up. I got companies in the area to sponsor

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Speaker 9: it and CEOs to show up. And I had this

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Speaker 9: idea at the very last minute to have a competition

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Speaker 9: where five women that we pick out of videos that

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Speaker 9: were sent in would compete on stage for ten thousand

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Speaker 9: dollars bonus. They would have to pitch for one minute

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Speaker 9: or less what their value is, no matter what their

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Speaker 9: reality was in life, stay at home mom, CEO, philanthropist assistant,

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Speaker 9: you know, it doesn't matter. Just tell me what it

439
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:39,720
Speaker 9: is that you bring to the table and sell it.

440
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,960
Speaker 9: And we had five women. We had so many videos

441
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 9: sent in. Somebody sent video from prison, literally, CEOs sent videos.

442
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:51,160
Speaker 9: It was incredible the response we got and we found

443
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,679
Speaker 9: five women. We coached them as best we could, and

444
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:57,120
Speaker 9: they got up on stage and it was amazing. First

445
00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,680
Speaker 9: of all the whole room. It was five hundred women

446
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:03,640
Speaker 9: in the We had perhaps two hundred more people who

447
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 9: walked in. There was a waiting list. People were lining

448
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 9: the walls, and they were all so supportive. They were

449
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 9: so invested in these women that they had gotten to

450
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,719
Speaker 9: know all day long throughout the event. And we had

451
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 9: a woman from Madison, Connecticut, who was fired from her

452
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,359
Speaker 9: job on Wall Street. She was in her fifties. She

453
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:26,879
Speaker 9: had opened a second hand store for babies and children's

454
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:29,639
Speaker 9: clothing in downtown Madison, and she wanted to use the

455
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 9: money to start a website for the moms to interconnect.

456
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 9: And we had a woman who had just moved to Middletown,

457
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 9: Connecticut from Houston who wanted to be a dress designer.

458
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 9: We had a grandmother in her seventies with beautiful long

459
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 9: dreadlocks and she had like ten grandchildren. She lived in

460
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:48,560
Speaker 9: the North end of Hartford and she wanted to open

461
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 9: an animal sanctuary. We had this blonde woman, a mom

462
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,160
Speaker 9: of three girls who had been dumped by her husband

463
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:58,439
Speaker 9: from Avon, Connecticut, who wanted to open a gym in

464
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 9: her basement so she could be a trainer as well

465
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 9: as take care of her kids. And we had an

466
00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 9: assistant named Jennifer Hotchkiss with a booming voice. So she

467
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:12,440
Speaker 9: worked as an assistant. She wanted to be the boss someday,

468
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 9: but she needed a college education. She was a single

469
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 9: mom and she wanted to be the first person in

470
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 9: her family to go to college. She named Baypath College

471
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:24,159
Speaker 9: in Hartford because I guess they had flexible hours, and

472
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:26,680
Speaker 9: she was a mom. The woman who was fired from

473
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 9: Wall Street one Darcy sorta. She had this incredible pitch

474
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:32,879
Speaker 9: and she came running up on stage. She gave me

475
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,479
Speaker 9: a big hub and I noticed a tube was sticking

476
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:38,159
Speaker 9: out of her neck, and I was like, are you okay?

477
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 9: And everyone's clapping and no one can hear us, and

478
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:43,640
Speaker 9: she's like, Mika, I had heart surgery forty eight hours ago.

479
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:47,280
Speaker 9: The doctor told me not to come. There's a wheelchair backstage.

480
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,760
Speaker 9: I had to come. I had to tell you my value.

481
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 9: I was practicing on the stretcher. Oh my god, please

482
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:57,159
Speaker 9: don't die right here. But that's amazing, and I'm like,

483
00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 9: I'm so moved. Let's close out the day. This is

484
00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:02,880
Speaker 9: a good know your value event. First one, let's get

485
00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 9: out of here before anything goes wrong. And then this

486
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 9: woman starts pulling on my dress saying, I need the microphone.

487
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 9: I need the microphone. She seemed pretty elegant, so I said, uh,

488
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,199
Speaker 9: we have an announcement. I guess I hander the microphone

489
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 9: and she goes, hello, I am the CMO of Baypath College,

490
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:23,679
Speaker 9: Jennifer Hotchkiss, the runner up young lady, and she pointed

491
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:26,440
Speaker 9: right out her She goes, you are amazing. Come see

492
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:28,920
Speaker 9: us on Monday. We are going to give you a

493
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 9: full ride. And the whole room went ah, and we

494
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 9: all just gasped, and you could hear this collective gasp

495
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 9: and then like we all started crying, every single person

496
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 9: on stage in the room, and Jennifer was bawling. And

497
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:48,159
Speaker 9: she graduated with highest honors two years later and was

498
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 9: the graduation speaker at Baypath and is on her way.

499
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 9: That was how I know your value, the events and

500
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 9: the book series and fifty over fifty in Nabu Dabi.

501
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,119
Speaker 9: That's where it all start in Hartford, Connecticut, where I

502
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,439
Speaker 9: worked as a local reporter and kind of used the

503
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:08,720
Speaker 9: scrappy skills that you get in local to put together

504
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 9: an event. I got to tell you, Molly, what brought

505
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 9: women in there was not me was not Gael was

506
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 9: not like anybody that you might have known. It was

507
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:25,400
Speaker 9: those three words know your value. Women, especially now, there

508
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 9: seems to be a little bit of a resurgence. We

509
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:30,159
Speaker 9: have fallen back in so many ways. We want to

510
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:33,719
Speaker 9: know our value and we want to communicate it effectively.

511
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 1: I also well up when you tell the story of

512
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 1: Baypath College.

513
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 2: It's amazing.

514
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 1: And my husband is on the board of this college

515
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 1: called Southern New Hampshire, which is another college right that

516
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 1: does education for people who are going back to college.

517
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,960
Speaker 1: And it is so important that we make education formal

518
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 1: for people.

519
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 2: It's very meaningful to me.

520
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 1: So I wonder if you could explain how people nominate

521
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:03,120
Speaker 1: each other or these two different groups thirty under thirty

522
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 1: and fifty over fifty.

523
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:07,320
Speaker 9: So with fifty over fifty, actually we need to start

524
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:11,720
Speaker 9: talking about the next US List. Our first US List

525
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 9: came out three years ago. We had ten thousand submissions

526
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 9: in less than two weeks. Just to understand when the

527
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 9: thirty under thirty list started. For Forbes their first year,

528
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 9: it's gone global, it's huge. So I can say this,

529
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:29,440
Speaker 9: they had a couple hundred. So again like know your value,

530
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 9: fifty over fifty kind of reaches an area where women

531
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 9: are really hungry for recognition and for a sense of

532
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:41,639
Speaker 9: their value. And we have found that not just in

533
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 9: the United States, but around the world, women are reaching

534
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 9: their greatest impact, their most money, their greatest joy well

535
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 9: after the age of fifty. Whether it's starting families or

536
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:58,919
Speaker 9: becoming CEOs or doing a complete pivot, they're doing it

537
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 9: and they're it And I can't tell you how many

538
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 9: women we were like, oh my god, this is insane.

539
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:09,359
Speaker 9: And so Randa Lane, the head of Forbes, and I,

540
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 9: like within minutes, realized after the US fifty over fifty

541
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 9: list was launched that we needed to go global. So

542
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 9: there's Europe, Middle East, and Africa, and there's the asial list.

543
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:26,000
Speaker 9: And we literally have the most incredible responses when we

544
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:29,119
Speaker 9: call out to people to sign up. So you can

545
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 9: go on Forbes dot com or Know your Value dot

546
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 9: com to know how you have to be over fifty,

547
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 9: and you can nominate yourself, which I think is very

548
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 9: kyv or you can be nominated by a friend or

549
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 9: a colleague. Honestly, we do the vetting. It's extremely complicated,

550
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 9: and it's really fun and really rewarding.

551
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 2: So talk about some of the speakers you're having at

552
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 2: this okay.

553
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 9: First of all, last year was insane and this year

554
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 9: is turning out to be completely different and insane. We

555
00:28:56,680 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 9: have such a diverse list of of speakers. We meet

556
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,880
Speaker 9: in Abu Dhabi, the crossroads of the world. The concept

557
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 9: is the thirty under thirty listers and the fifty over

558
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 9: fifty honorees come to Abu Dhabi. There's a ton of

559
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 9: cross generational mentoring going on.

560
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 2: And yet again generation act what generation are we? Jesse?

561
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:17,960
Speaker 2: We get left out? But that's okay or not?

562
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 9: Well, that's explain it. Someday you'll have me. You should come,

563
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 9: by the way.

564
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 2: No, it's our one live show. If it were not

565
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 2: a one live show, I would be on my.

566
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:32,000
Speaker 9: Way with live do it live from Abu Dhabi anyhow.

567
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 9: But it's everything from Shania Twain to Shila Johnson to

568
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 9: Ellen Johnson, Sirleif the former president of Liberia. We have

569
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 9: like Susie Orman and yes, by the way, know your value.

570
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 9: She is my inspo. I mean I used to watch

571
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 9: her talking to people on the phone and I learned

572
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 9: to talk to people honestly by watching Susie.

573
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 1: Kathy Griffin told me the reason she has money is

574
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 1: because of Susie. Really yeah, because Susie tells you how

575
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 1: to do your money.

576
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 9: She does, and she doesn't mince words. She's like, you're

577
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:08,920
Speaker 9: doing it all wrong. This is what you need to do,

578
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:13,440
Speaker 9: and she doesn't hold back. I love how just blatantly,

579
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 9: bluntly honest she is with people about how they need

580
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 9: to change their lives. And it's going to be the

581
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 9: event itself. Huma Aberdeen, as you know, who's also on

582
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 9: Morning Mika, is the vice chair, and we can have

583
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 9: a lot of women from the region as well. We're

584
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 9: very well known in their own right in the region.

585
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:35,520
Speaker 9: So the mentoring is it goes in so many different directions,

586
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 9: younger to older, older to younger, Middle East to Western.

587
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 2: You know.

588
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 9: I remember the second year when we had Elena Zelenska,

589
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 9: Billy Jean King, Gloria Steinem and Hillary Clinton all on

590
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 9: stage together. I was like, pinch me right now. I

591
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 9: was in the elevator and this girl in her twenties

592
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 9: like my daughter's age. She was like, oh my god,

593
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 9: this elevator is so slow. I have got to get

594
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 9: to networking. And I'm like, who's excited about networking? Like

595
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 9: that makes me want to vomit actually like networking. I

596
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 9: don't know why, but it feels like such a chore,

597
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 9: you know, right, And she was. She invented the first

598
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 9: networking event and loved it so much that she was

599
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 9: like late and freaking out. And I thought, Okay, this

600
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 9: event is successful if you've got a twenty something like

601
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 9: like my twenty somethings like to stay home, so you know,

602
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 9: post COVID twenty somethings or not, you know, the most

603
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 9: like I want a network. But this kid was just

604
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 9: on her way. So the event's remarkable. It really is

605
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 9: something that I could have never dreamed of in terms

606
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 9: of what people take away from it, no matter who

607
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 9: they are, where they come from, what their age or

608
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 9: background is. And I'm really proud of it. I'm blown

609
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:55,000
Speaker 9: away by it. But I'm incredibly proud at as to

610
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 9: what we've been able to accomplish with thirty fifty in

611
00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 9: Abu Dhabi.

612
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 2: So now talk to me about more yes, yes, yes.

613
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:07,640
Speaker 9: Four hours and then morning mega. I love it. Actually,

614
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 9: I came into it with a little bit of a

615
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:13,480
Speaker 9: bad attitude because the four hours are exhausting, and I

616
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 9: just was like, am I going to be able to

617
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 9: give it and bring it. And the first, like the pilot,

618
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:21,200
Speaker 9: I was like, oh my god, I'm so tired.

619
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:22,000
Speaker 7: Do no.

620
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 9: And then I got into it and now I'm like, oh, Joe,

621
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 9: you take this segment. I just had an idea. I

622
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:30,680
Speaker 9: need to type it up for Morning Mega and I'm like,

623
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 9: have you see me on my iPad During the show,

624
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:35,560
Speaker 9: I'm like typing away because I'm like, oh my god,

625
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:38,840
Speaker 9: great thought. So I love it and I love that

626
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:42,480
Speaker 9: Jen Simone and Huma are the co hosts. What's fun

627
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 9: is that I think they just all They're all joyful, beautiful,

628
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 9: fabulous people who have a different take on things, maybe

629
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 9: a little different than I would have, but we come

630
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 9: to it with so much joy. And the whole point

631
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:57,959
Speaker 9: is to have a lot of fun and to have

632
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 9: a really interesting conversation and to move it along quickly.

633
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:04,240
Speaker 9: So when you're watching or you pull it up and

634
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:06,400
Speaker 9: you stream it while you're doing other things, it's going

635
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:08,600
Speaker 9: to move fast. It's not going to bog you down,

636
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 9: and you might even like rewind and go, what was

637
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 9: that that was fun?

638
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:12,320
Speaker 4: I'm going to use that.

639
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 9: So I love it.

640
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 1: I think it's great, and I also think that there's

641
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:19,960
Speaker 1: so much resistance in media to the idea of women

642
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 1: like doing programs together, and there's something really cool about

643
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 1: the fact that all the hosts are women.

644
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 9: Yeah. I mean, you know, everyone was like when the

645
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 9: we were putting together the show, and they're like, well,

646
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 9: how should we describe it with a women's take, And

647
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 9: I'm like, no, No, we're just four hosts. We happen

648
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 9: to be women. But I'm not sitting here going women.

649
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:45,520
Speaker 9: We must be all women, and let's tell everything about women,

650
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:47,960
Speaker 9: and let's talk about women. We will all talk about

651
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 9: things that interest us, which probably will bring us to

652
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 9: women's issues, but we're not going to force it. We're

653
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 9: going to talk about what's out there and what's bugging

654
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 9: us and what's keeping us up at night.

655
00:33:58,720 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 2: Yeah.

656
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 1: Well, and I also think ultimately, I mean, all of

657
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:07,280
Speaker 1: these elections twenty three, twenty twenty two, twenty twenty, twenty eighteen,

658
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 1: the story we don't talk about, but they've been women's elections.

659
00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:13,280
Speaker 1: They've been about Roe, they've been about you know, Donald

660
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 1: Trump's messade here. I mean, these have been the issues

661
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 1: that have propelled us.

662
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:18,880
Speaker 9: Yeah, and there have been a lot of things that

663
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:22,000
Speaker 9: I want to say on Morning Joe it's not that

664
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 9: I haven't had the chance. Hahaha. No, it's not Joe

665
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 9: interrupting me. It's more I want to own it, and

666
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 9: I want to say it right to camera, and I

667
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:32,360
Speaker 9: want to be very clear about what I'm saying. And

668
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:35,320
Speaker 9: I have some things to share about my own personal

669
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:38,279
Speaker 9: experience with that former president, and this is a good

670
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:38,880
Speaker 9: place for it.

671
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:42,799
Speaker 2: Yeah. So interesting, Mika. Thank you for joining us.

672
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,319
Speaker 9: Yay, thanks for having me, and thank you for being

673
00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 9: on Morning Joe. We love having you, Mulli Joe Fast.

674
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:49,360
Speaker 9: You're the best.

675
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 2: Oh, it's really fun.

676
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 1: Adam Carlson is a recovering political pollster.

677
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 2: Welcome to Fast Politics.

678
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:00,040
Speaker 7: Adam Carlson, Hi, Mollie, how you do it?

679
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 2: Good Adam? What do you do? Explain to us what

680
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:02,919
Speaker 2: you do.

681
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 7: I am a polster. I used to work in political

682
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:09,399
Speaker 7: polling for Democratic Polling Organization. I sold out a bit

683
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 7: working more in corporate stuff, so more of an outside observer,

684
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:14,360
Speaker 7: but kind of lived and breathed that world for about

685
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:15,480
Speaker 7: six years or so.

686
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:20,280
Speaker 1: So explain to us a little bit about what polling

687
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 1: is now and what it was before and how it's changed.

688
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 2: A little bit. Give us a little rit large on

689
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 2: pulling of course.

690
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 7: Yeah, so right now, we are no surprise to anybody.

691
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 7: Polling is a bit volatile these days, and it faces

692
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 7: a lot of structural challenges for a lot of people.

693
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 7: You see all these spam callers on your phone, most

694
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:39,560
Speaker 7: people will pick up the phone and.

695
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:41,880
Speaker 2: Those are pollsters right calling you.

696
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 7: Yeah, so they're calling you. In response rates which used

697
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 7: to be even like fifteen twenty years ago, we're close

698
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 7: to ten percent and fifteen percent are now down to

699
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:53,960
Speaker 7: you're lucky to get two or three percent response rate

700
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:56,800
Speaker 7: on phone poles, which is obviously you're not going to

701
00:35:56,840 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 7: get necessarily a great representative population. So polls take great

702
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:04,680
Speaker 7: effort to ensure that they have a representative sample. They're

703
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:07,359
Speaker 7: contacting people over the phone, but it's expensive to do

704
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 7: a really, really good phone poll, so you see a

705
00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 7: lot of kind of junk polsters come in and do

706
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:15,840
Speaker 7: either phone polls but not a lot of strict methodology

707
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 7: to cut corners and save costs, or we'll do online polls.

708
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:21,520
Speaker 7: And there are a lot of really good online pollsters

709
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:23,959
Speaker 7: out there and a lot of cheap, trashy ones as well,

710
00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:27,759
Speaker 7: So it's really important to understand which ones are doing

711
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 7: the due diligence and are acting in good faith, which

712
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 7: ones are kind of cutting corners, are trying to push

713
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 7: a narrative. And I think that five thirty eight Polster ratings,

714
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:36,759
Speaker 7: which they put out a few weeks ago, do a

715
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:39,319
Speaker 7: really good job of looking at their track records and

716
00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 7: how transparent they are in methodology. It used to be

717
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:44,399
Speaker 7: a hell of a lot easier to pull even ten

718
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:46,640
Speaker 7: twenty thirty years ago than it is now.

719
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:50,799
Speaker 1: When you pull, you have this larger question. Right, we

720
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:54,319
Speaker 1: have in America a very shifting electra. One of the

721
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 1: reasons why the polls were so off in twenty sixteen

722
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:00,520
Speaker 1: was that Trump brought out voters who had never voted before.

723
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 4: Yep.

724
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 7: And the same thing happened in twenty twenty as well.

725
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:07,919
Speaker 7: I mean, he overperformed his polling in both elections, and

726
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:10,239
Speaker 7: kind of a little known fact is that poll was

727
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:12,880
Speaker 7: pretty good in the Trump era when he wasn't on

728
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 7: the ballot in twenty eighteen and twenty twenty two. But

729
00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:17,000
Speaker 7: when he's on the ballot, things tend to get at

730
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:19,799
Speaker 7: a little screwy because to your point, a lot of

731
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 7: his supporters are pretty distrustful of institutions, including polling, because

732
00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 7: Trump has railed against them when they haven't been benefiting him.

733
00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:29,320
Speaker 7: He loves them now because they mostly show him ahead,

734
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 7: but they're much less likely to pick up the phone

735
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 7: or to even take it online survey, so it's harder

736
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:35,960
Speaker 7: and harder to reach his base.

737
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,799
Speaker 1: Let's sort of talk about what is happening right now.

738
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:42,680
Speaker 1: You have a really interesting thesis. There's a lot of

739
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 1: polling that shows Trump ahead in varying degrees, but there's

740
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:51,839
Speaker 1: also a lot of pulling.

741
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 2: That is junkie, that is messing up the averages.

742
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:58,960
Speaker 7: So in twenty twenty two, there was this big narrative

743
00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:01,600
Speaker 7: that was being pushed by a lot of media outlets

744
00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:03,279
Speaker 7: that it's going to be this big red waves, and

745
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 7: a lot of that was informed by again, these kind

746
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 7: of junk polsters like Eutrafalgers, your inside Advantages.

747
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:13,680
Speaker 2: Brass button Yes yes, yes.

748
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:16,880
Speaker 7: Rathmlssen, who were just putting out the again these cheap poles.

749
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:19,120
Speaker 7: Whether they were acting good faith or whether they were

750
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:22,279
Speaker 7: kind of cutting corners on methodology, they were showing Republicans

751
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 7: doing better both nationally and in key swing districts in

752
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:27,839
Speaker 7: swing states, and that's why a lot of folks were

753
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:30,040
Speaker 7: surprised when Democrats ended up holding their own in a

754
00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:32,680
Speaker 7: lot of these key racers almost holding the House, which

755
00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:35,759
Speaker 7: was pretty much unstathomable both to most people beforehand. But

756
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:38,279
Speaker 7: they are a site split Ticket which has a lot

757
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:40,320
Speaker 7: of great work on this and kind of pokexholes and

758
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:43,240
Speaker 7: a lot of conventional wisdom using data, had an average

759
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 7: for the national popular vote for the House, which only

760
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:49,799
Speaker 7: included high quality polsters, and they got really close to

761
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:54,080
Speaker 7: the final result again by being discerning and looking at, Okay,

762
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 7: who is a reputable polster, not ones they're showing good

763
00:38:57,040 --> 00:39:00,200
Speaker 7: results for your candidate, but ones that are doing their homework.

764
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:02,239
Speaker 7: And so we're kind of seeing a bit of a

765
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:04,840
Speaker 7: version of that again this year. It's still early, but

766
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:08,279
Speaker 7: some data worked on with the Economist using five thirty

767
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:11,840
Speaker 7: eight new polster ratings for a Trump versus Biden twenty

768
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:14,840
Speaker 7: twenty four head to head race, found that poles taken

769
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:17,919
Speaker 7: in January of twenty twenty four, of the really good,

770
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:21,359
Speaker 7: highly rated polsters only had Trump head by under a point,

771
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 7: actuallyo point two points. If you look at polsters that

772
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 7: are ranked most poorly, so the ones we were just

773
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:29,760
Speaker 7: talking about, your fagers, et cetera, they had Trump up five,

774
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 7: So it's under one point versus five points. Obviously Biden

775
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:36,359
Speaker 7: wants to be ahead, but under one point popular vote

776
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:39,279
Speaker 7: margin is definitely easier to come back from than being

777
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 7: down five. So a lot of media and sites like

778
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:45,919
Speaker 7: RCP will just group all of these polsters together regardless

779
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 7: of quality, when in reality, if you kind of look

780
00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:50,359
Speaker 7: at it by all, right, what's their track record, are

781
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:52,960
Speaker 7: they acting in good faith? Are they publishing their methodology?

782
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:54,799
Speaker 7: You can get a but it what is potentially a

783
00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:57,600
Speaker 7: more realistic average? We won't know until election day. But

784
00:39:57,640 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 7: I think an average is only as good as the

785
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:00,799
Speaker 7: poll you include in it.

786
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 1: I want to go from here to the idea of

787
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:12,359
Speaker 1: polling as disinformation. So twenty twenty two, Ron Johnson wildly insane,

788
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 1: not super popular candidate runs against him, called Mandela Barns.

789
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:23,839
Speaker 1: He is the sort of grassroots candidate wins the primary

790
00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 1: versus a sort of more traditional candidate. He is polling

791
00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 1: six seven, eight points behind. He loses by a very

792
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:35,279
Speaker 1: small one point less, you know, a little less than

793
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:38,680
Speaker 1: one point margin. I mean, he was basically destroyed by polls, right,

794
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 1: a lot.

795
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:42,440
Speaker 7: Of those decisions. So to your point, Mandela Barnes was

796
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:46,400
Speaker 7: pretty much cut loose by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee

797
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:49,239
Speaker 7: and Triage be cousins on all the races. Yeah, they

798
00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 7: do their own internal polling as well, which we never

799
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 7: get to see.

800
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:55,399
Speaker 2: That also probably showed it.

801
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:58,280
Speaker 7: Probably informed it for sure, and he for whatever reason.

802
00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:00,600
Speaker 7: So they were all wrong and they were all wrong,

803
00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:03,399
Speaker 7: and polls are wrong and mean with Wisconsin has had

804
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:05,440
Speaker 7: some big misses and polling recently too. I don't know

805
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:07,960
Speaker 7: if you remember the poll that had bidened up by

806
00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:11,720
Speaker 7: seventeen there in twenty twenty October twenty eighth, twenty twenty,

807
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:14,480
Speaker 7: which obviously is a big, a big outlier, but to

808
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:16,480
Speaker 7: your point, it was clearly a pattern right where he

809
00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:19,719
Speaker 7: outperformed his polling. And then in retrospect, if Democrats had

810
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:22,440
Speaker 7: invested in Barns the way they had in other races

811
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:25,239
Speaker 7: like Arizona Pennsylvania, it's a very good chance he would

812
00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:27,279
Speaker 7: have won. And Ron Johnson is one of the most

813
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:31,160
Speaker 7: right wing senators in a representing a state that Biden won,

814
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:33,840
Speaker 7: which is very rare in these days. That one really hurts.

815
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:37,319
Speaker 7: I don't necessarily buy for that race that it was disinformation.

816
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:39,920
Speaker 1: Certainly in that race, I don't think it was, but

817
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 1: there's clearly a way to shift the narrative via polls.

818
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:46,600
Speaker 7: Yes, And this was actually a point that one of

819
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:49,839
Speaker 7: Nate Silver's hypotheses, which ended up not looking so great

820
00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:53,320
Speaker 7: in twenty twenty two, was that, well, Republicans are releasing

821
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 7: all these poles from their internal their internal polls and

822
00:41:56,560 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 7: Republican affiliated pollsters that are skewing these averages. Like Democrats

823
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:01,880
Speaker 7: could do that too, but they aren't. So it's kind

824
00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 7: of like a free market effect. And maybe that was

825
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:06,360
Speaker 7: Democrats didn't believe their own numbers, Maybe they just wanted

826
00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:08,560
Speaker 7: to keep it close to the vest, who knows, But

827
00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:11,640
Speaker 7: in reality, it was just them flooding the zone with

828
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 7: Republican leaning polls. Again, whether that was good faith, poor methodology,

829
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:19,400
Speaker 7: just you know, a regular polling miss will never really know.

830
00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:22,359
Speaker 7: But it did shape the narrative leading up to it,

831
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:24,160
Speaker 7: and we don't really know what the effects of that

832
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:27,319
Speaker 7: narrative shaping are. Did it shift funding probably? Did it

833
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:30,600
Speaker 7: prohibit Democrats from donating in races that they otherwise would

834
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:32,920
Speaker 7: be competitive because there were despondent You never know. It

835
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 7: could have had the opposite effect. But polling for better

836
00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:38,399
Speaker 7: or for worse, I would argue mostly for worse, does

837
00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:41,399
Speaker 7: shape the narrative, which the media narrative, especially especially if

838
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:43,440
Speaker 7: we don't have much else to go on. People are

839
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:46,359
Speaker 7: trying to read the tea leaves from these like uncontested

840
00:42:46,640 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 7: presidential primaries right now, and they're grasping its straws for

841
00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:51,799
Speaker 7: the most part, and polling is the only thing to

842
00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:54,840
Speaker 7: talk about right now, and right now the narrative is

843
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:57,800
Speaker 7: that Trump is winning, Biden's in trouble. That drives clicks.

844
00:42:58,000 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 7: But it's a little more complicated than that, I think.

845
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:03,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, so let's talk about this because there is also

846
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:08,720
Speaker 1: one other factor here that is deeply involved in polling,

847
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:14,719
Speaker 1: and that is No Labels, Mark Penn's wife's organization, Nancy Jacobson.

848
00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:18,919
Speaker 1: So Mark Penn has a polling company. Can you talk

849
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:21,160
Speaker 1: a little bit about that No Labels as a third

850
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:25,160
Speaker 1: party organization that fundraises, gets a lot of money from Republicans,

851
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 1: really desperately wants to make the case that Biden cannot

852
00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 1: win and that a third party candidate needs to come in.

853
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:37,000
Speaker 1: They've had some trouble trying to find a third party candidate,

854
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:38,680
Speaker 1: but that is their goal.

855
00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:42,160
Speaker 7: So Mark Penn hits up a Stagwell group which partners

856
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 7: with Harvard University on the Harvard Harris Caps polls. He

857
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:49,839
Speaker 7: also has an organization called HARISX, which primarily does tech

858
00:43:49,840 --> 00:43:52,319
Speaker 7: and telecom polling, but has been doing political polling since

859
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:54,360
Speaker 7: at least twenty eighteen. They put out some kind of

860
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 7: eye popping headlines and Dave Wibel did a great story

861
00:43:56,719 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 7: about this stick around Israel, and they did a lot

862
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:01,799
Speaker 7: of polling around and the Bob Moler case. If everyone

863
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:04,480
Speaker 7: what remember is that I feel like decades ago, I

864
00:44:04,719 --> 00:44:07,960
Speaker 7: kind of raised some headlines and has shown some polling

865
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:10,080
Speaker 7: or they've put out some maps that show this kind

866
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:12,680
Speaker 7: of viability for a third party candidate that had been

867
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:14,480
Speaker 7: met with some skepticism.

868
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:18,960
Speaker 1: Right, which is very convenient because the wife is running

869
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:21,680
Speaker 1: an organization that is running a third party candidate or

870
00:44:21,680 --> 00:44:22,160
Speaker 1: trying to.

871
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:23,600
Speaker 7: I think the press is waking up to that a

872
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 7: little bit. I think that'll take more shape if and

873
00:44:26,160 --> 00:44:29,279
Speaker 7: when they find a candidate, which supposedly will be as

874
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:31,759
Speaker 7: soon as March. But there's been a lot of stories.

875
00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:34,080
Speaker 7: Adam mass has been doing a lot of good research

876
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:36,200
Speaker 7: on this and put some good stories on this, but

877
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:39,080
Speaker 7: they're just really struggling to find a candidate. They're onbout

878
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:41,879
Speaker 7: the ballots in some states, but they're having a lot

879
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:45,520
Speaker 7: of internal issues, including with their their funders, who thought

880
00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:47,799
Speaker 7: to be more of an issue based organization.

881
00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 2: Don't They have some donors who are suing them.

882
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:54,120
Speaker 7: Yes, Robert Durst, So it's members of the durs family.

883
00:44:54,080 --> 00:44:56,319
Speaker 2: Because they feel it's a bait and switch, right.

884
00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:58,400
Speaker 7: Yeah, they wanted to be kind of based on issues

885
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 7: and finding a middle path and by part reisanship. I

886
00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:03,279
Speaker 7: believe there was a whole time story about this, and

887
00:45:03,320 --> 00:45:05,359
Speaker 7: they feel that they're not getting what they paid for

888
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:07,600
Speaker 7: because they're trying to seal the third party candidate, which

889
00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 7: most people are concerned about what hurt Biden more than Trump,

890
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:12,840
Speaker 7: especially given that there's all the people that are going

891
00:45:12,880 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 7: to decide this election are people that don't really like

892
00:45:15,239 --> 00:45:17,720
Speaker 7: either of them, and they maybe have a take towards

893
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:20,799
Speaker 7: a Joe Manchin or Larry Hogan or people who are

894
00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:22,080
Speaker 7: more in the middle of the spectrum.

895
00:45:22,160 --> 00:45:24,720
Speaker 1: Of course, it's hard to see the difference between Joe

896
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 1: Mansion and a Joe Biden when they largely read a

897
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:33,880
Speaker 1: lot a like, except that Joe Manchin worked on killing

898
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:39,400
Speaker 1: some of Joe Biden's more fullsome legislation, you know, I

899
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:42,960
Speaker 1: mean it's sort of amazing. Like I think Joe Manchin

900
00:45:43,080 --> 00:45:46,360
Speaker 1: is more for the donor class right than Joe Biden,

901
00:45:46,520 --> 00:45:49,080
Speaker 1: because I mean, ultimately he cares about you know, it

902
00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:53,040
Speaker 1: was a lot of decisions about taxes and trying to

903
00:45:53,080 --> 00:45:57,320
Speaker 1: deprive working people of benefits. So let's just talk for

904
00:45:57,360 --> 00:46:02,319
Speaker 1: another minute about pulling methodology. Sometimes posters will look at

905
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:06,960
Speaker 1: the numbers and sort of rejigger them in other ways, right.

906
00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:10,360
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean in twenty twelve, if any numbers that

907
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 7: far back, there was this whole Republican leading organization called

908
00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 7: Unskewed Polls or the guy to this pastournalist I believe

909
00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 7: our blogger started, which was taking these polls that were

910
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:21,880
Speaker 7: showing good results for Barack Obama and being like, oh no,

911
00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:24,959
Speaker 7: this party identification, Like there's too many Democrats in this point.

912
00:46:25,200 --> 00:46:27,120
Speaker 7: So I'm going to take the data. I'm going to

913
00:46:27,160 --> 00:46:30,000
Speaker 7: rewait it add more Republicans or more independence or what

914
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:32,319
Speaker 7: have you, and like, here's what the actual numbers are.

915
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:34,480
Speaker 7: And of course, in retrospect, this is kind of silly,

916
00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:37,240
Speaker 7: but there's been written about extensively that the Romney campaign

917
00:46:37,480 --> 00:46:40,440
Speaker 7: was buying into this, and they entered into election day,

918
00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:42,840
Speaker 7: I think, well, all these polls are wrong, they're pulling

919
00:46:42,840 --> 00:46:45,840
Speaker 7: too many Democrats, putting too many Democrats, and we're going

920
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:48,480
Speaker 7: to win. I think he was genuinely flabbergasted, even though

921
00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 7: most of the polls are very very good that year

922
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:52,719
Speaker 7: and showed Obama winning by a few points. He won

923
00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:56,080
Speaker 7: by a few points in a comfortable electoral college margin.

924
00:46:56,200 --> 00:46:58,920
Speaker 7: But it's funny this year kind of see a bit

925
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:01,400
Speaker 7: of the opposite happening, where a lot of polls are

926
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 7: showing potentially impausibly good polls for Trump, but maybe they're

927
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:05,840
Speaker 7: maybe they're accurate.

928
00:47:06,000 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 4: You know, we don't know.

929
00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:09,520
Speaker 7: It's still nine months out. Although there's reasons to be skeptical,

930
00:47:09,520 --> 00:47:12,520
Speaker 7: which we can get into later, But there's Democrats who

931
00:47:12,560 --> 00:47:15,480
Speaker 7: are just like seeing poles are unfavorable to Biden and saying, no,

932
00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:17,520
Speaker 7: this can't be true, this can't be right. The polls

933
00:47:17,520 --> 00:47:19,800
Speaker 7: are broken, and this isn't right. And then I understand

934
00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:23,239
Speaker 7: that skepticism, especially after twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, but

935
00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:25,879
Speaker 7: they're still really important for showing us where the races

936
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:29,080
Speaker 7: are most competitive. Even if you take them seriously, not literally,

937
00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:31,799
Speaker 7: you're actually they're still pretty accurate. And there's this huge

938
00:47:31,840 --> 00:47:35,440
Speaker 7: discourse that's been happening with like Simon Rosenberg and Matt Iglesias.

939
00:47:35,560 --> 00:47:37,840
Speaker 7: If the election were held today, who would win? And

940
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:39,880
Speaker 7: I think it's kind of a silly premise to begin with,

941
00:47:40,239 --> 00:47:42,920
Speaker 7: because it's not campaigns matter. The Biden campaign and the

942
00:47:42,960 --> 00:47:45,400
Speaker 7: Trump campaign will spend billions and billions of dollars and

943
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:47,239
Speaker 7: their allies, a lot of people still don't know that's

944
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:48,640
Speaker 7: going to be the matchup. I know it's kind of

945
00:47:48,680 --> 00:47:49,280
Speaker 7: hard to believe.

946
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:51,200
Speaker 2: No, I think that's absolutely right.

947
00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:53,120
Speaker 7: It's like a third of the electoris still doesn't kind

948
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:55,800
Speaker 7: of either doesn't want to believe it or doesn't believe it.

949
00:47:56,080 --> 00:47:57,919
Speaker 7: So I think everyone just needs to be a little

950
00:47:57,960 --> 00:48:01,560
Speaker 7: bit more patient about this instead of just immediately attacking

951
00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:03,920
Speaker 7: the polls like poles are misunderstood as these kind of

952
00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:05,480
Speaker 7: predictive things.

953
00:48:05,239 --> 00:48:08,160
Speaker 2: To spar out right and not just a moment in

954
00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:10,240
Speaker 2: time and exactly right shifts.

955
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:13,960
Speaker 1: It seems like twenty sixteen, the polls were wrong because

956
00:48:14,200 --> 00:48:17,760
Speaker 1: they weren't able to pull Trump right, the Trump factor,

957
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:21,120
Speaker 1: whatever that is. And you're saying that again in twenty twenty,

958
00:48:21,360 --> 00:48:23,399
Speaker 1: the polls were wrong because they weren't able to pull

959
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:26,880
Speaker 1: the Trump factor, but Biden was able to pull.

960
00:48:26,719 --> 00:48:29,960
Speaker 2: Out more voters too, so it ended up working out right.

961
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:32,560
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think it's definitely twenty twenty is a bit

962
00:48:32,600 --> 00:48:34,600
Speaker 7: more complicated. There's a lot of theories, but I think

963
00:48:34,640 --> 00:48:36,360
Speaker 7: there was some of that kind of repeat that just

964
00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:39,400
Speaker 7: it's Trump voters are kind of weird and hard to

965
00:48:39,480 --> 00:48:42,680
Speaker 7: contact sometimes that can skew things. The polls had Biden

966
00:48:42,760 --> 00:48:45,480
Speaker 7: winning in twenty twenty, and it got that the national

967
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:49,160
Speaker 7: popular vote decently right, but really underestimated Trump in the

968
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:52,160
Speaker 7: swing states, so he still won. So directionally like they got,

969
00:48:52,480 --> 00:48:54,319
Speaker 7: they said Biden was going to win, and he did,

970
00:48:54,560 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 7: but it was very, very very narrow, and that was

971
00:48:57,160 --> 00:48:58,719
Speaker 7: not the case from the poles were show and I

972
00:48:58,719 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 7: thought it was gonna be a pretty comfortable way.

973
00:49:00,520 --> 00:49:04,480
Speaker 2: So basically, when Trump is on the ballot, it's much

974
00:49:04,560 --> 00:49:05,439
Speaker 2: much harder to paul.

975
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:07,520
Speaker 7: It's a small sample size, but for the data we

976
00:49:07,600 --> 00:49:10,520
Speaker 7: do have twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, yeah, it tends

977
00:49:10,520 --> 00:49:13,160
Speaker 7: to be a little bit unpredictable, and the past two

978
00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:16,320
Speaker 7: times it's worked in his favor. But one theory that

979
00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:19,480
Speaker 7: some people have, which is again hard to prove, is

980
00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:21,719
Speaker 7: that polsters have been looking for answers. Going back to

981
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:23,759
Speaker 7: the beginning of this podcast, what are the problems facing

982
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:27,520
Speaker 7: the industry? Sometimes polsters are changing their methodology from cycle

983
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:29,720
Speaker 7: to cycle to be like, all right, we're having trouble

984
00:49:29,960 --> 00:49:33,799
Speaker 7: getting a representative sample, getting enough Republicans, or getting enough

985
00:49:33,840 --> 00:49:35,640
Speaker 7: young people or people of color on the phone, which

986
00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:38,320
Speaker 7: are just harder to get in general. So it's possible

987
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:42,480
Speaker 7: they could overcorrect, change the methodology too much and underestimate Biden.

988
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:44,560
Speaker 7: I think that's an underrated possibility.

989
00:49:44,640 --> 00:49:45,360
Speaker 4: Again, we won't know.

990
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 7: But just because something's happened twice before, it doesn't mean

991
00:49:47,960 --> 00:49:49,160
Speaker 7: it's going to happen a certain time.

992
00:49:49,480 --> 00:49:54,759
Speaker 1: Oh so interesting and also so strange. Are you guys

993
00:49:54,800 --> 00:49:56,440
Speaker 1: going to figure out a new way to do.

994
00:49:56,560 --> 00:50:00,680
Speaker 7: Pauline, It's a constant conversation. I mostly do again for

995
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:03,759
Speaker 7: mostly a corporate nonprofit clients, although there's a bit in

996
00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:06,480
Speaker 7: the political realm to do online polling. The issue with

997
00:50:06,560 --> 00:50:09,400
Speaker 7: that is you can't get a truly as much as

998
00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:12,080
Speaker 7: you can ever get a truly representative sample because you

999
00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:13,560
Speaker 7: have to opt in, you have to click in, and

1000
00:50:13,680 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 7: you usually you're paid for your answers. Versus phone polls.

1001
00:50:17,000 --> 00:50:19,400
Speaker 7: You can do a random digit dialing, and you can

1002
00:50:19,440 --> 00:50:21,920
Speaker 7: work for very very large voter lists and work from

1003
00:50:21,960 --> 00:50:24,200
Speaker 7: there get a representative sample. Then you have the response

1004
00:50:24,320 --> 00:50:26,759
Speaker 7: rate issue. The New York Times did a good, really

1005
00:50:26,840 --> 00:50:30,440
Speaker 7: interesting experiment in Wisconsin in twenty twenty two with mail voting,

1006
00:50:30,680 --> 00:50:32,719
Speaker 7: I mean mail polling rather to see if that would

1007
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:36,120
Speaker 7: increase response rates. It gave a little incentive that's not

1008
00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:40,600
Speaker 7: really replicable on a big scale because just takes too

1009
00:50:40,680 --> 00:50:42,759
Speaker 7: long to get everything back and there's a lot more

1010
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:47,040
Speaker 7: logistics involved. People try and contact via text messages. So honestly,

1011
00:50:47,239 --> 00:50:50,280
Speaker 7: the industry is always looking for answers, always looking to improve,

1012
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:53,879
Speaker 7: and understands that I think just one or two more

1013
00:50:53,960 --> 00:50:58,280
Speaker 7: big polling misses away from further distrust in the industry.

1014
00:50:58,320 --> 00:51:00,719
Speaker 7: But I can tell you that after twenty sixteen, when

1015
00:51:00,719 --> 00:51:02,560
Speaker 7: I was working with the Democratic Pollster, you know, we

1016
00:51:02,640 --> 00:51:05,399
Speaker 7: were just looking for we were looking for answers. We're like, okay,

1017
00:51:05,480 --> 00:51:08,640
Speaker 7: we got to really examine what worked, what didn't. If

1018
00:51:08,680 --> 00:51:10,480
Speaker 7: we got a state right, was it for the right

1019
00:51:10,560 --> 00:51:13,359
Speaker 7: reasons or we had two errors canceling each other out.

1020
00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:15,920
Speaker 7: It's always a challenge. So to answer your question, I

1021
00:51:15,960 --> 00:51:18,080
Speaker 7: don't know if we'll find the silver bullet, but I

1022
00:51:18,120 --> 00:51:20,480
Speaker 7: think it's important to keep searching for it, and I

1023
00:51:20,520 --> 00:51:23,400
Speaker 7: think twenty twenty four will be very instructive. If the

1024
00:51:23,440 --> 00:51:26,359
Speaker 7: polling industry gets the margin wrong a third time by

1025
00:51:26,400 --> 00:51:27,960
Speaker 7: a big amount, I think it was going to be

1026
00:51:28,040 --> 00:51:31,600
Speaker 7: even deeper soul searching, and even deeper and quite deserved

1027
00:51:31,719 --> 00:51:35,600
Speaker 7: public cometicism. Thank you so much, of course, thanks for

1028
00:51:35,680 --> 00:51:35,960
Speaker 7: having me.

1029
00:51:38,440 --> 00:51:41,600
Speaker 5: No moment full on, who.

1030
00:51:41,680 --> 00:51:44,120
Speaker 2: Is your moment of fuckery? We covered a lot of shit.

1031
00:51:44,840 --> 00:51:47,480
Speaker 3: My moment of fuckery this week is the special counsel

1032
00:51:48,239 --> 00:51:51,120
Speaker 3: who decided he was going to try to make this

1033
00:51:51,280 --> 00:51:55,560
Speaker 3: into a job application in the Trump two point zero

1034
00:51:55,640 --> 00:51:59,440
Speaker 3: administration instead of a straight up the middle analysis of

1035
00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:02,839
Speaker 3: the legal case that he was hired and swore an

1036
00:52:02,880 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 3: oath to examine. If, like me, you read that thing

1037
00:52:07,239 --> 00:52:11,080
Speaker 3: and thought, wow, this is an editorial not an actual

1038
00:52:11,239 --> 00:52:14,839
Speaker 3: fucking legal case, you would be like I am kind

1039
00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 3: of pissed off, and you think this is a moment

1040
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 3: of fuckery, and it is my favorite.

1041
00:52:19,520 --> 00:52:25,120
Speaker 1: Actually thought on this comes from our friend Joe Scarborough,

1042
00:52:25,200 --> 00:52:29,320
Speaker 1: who said they couldn't indict Biden legally, so they tried

1043
00:52:29,360 --> 00:52:30,640
Speaker 1: to indict him politically.

1044
00:52:31,280 --> 00:52:34,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's exactly right. Joe's exactly correct on that one

1045
00:52:34,880 --> 00:52:37,439
Speaker 3: hundred percent right. None of this had to go this way,

1046
00:52:37,920 --> 00:52:41,160
Speaker 3: but this guy chose to make this into a very

1047
00:52:42,239 --> 00:52:46,759
Speaker 3: personal dig on Biden. Look, I think it was exceedingly

1048
00:52:46,880 --> 00:52:51,400
Speaker 3: unprofessional and exceedingly shitty. And yet you know, remember, this

1049
00:52:51,560 --> 00:52:53,560
Speaker 3: is a guy who found a place in the Trump administration,

1050
00:52:53,760 --> 00:52:56,960
Speaker 3: so that tells you an awful lot about his character.

1051
00:52:57,200 --> 00:52:59,320
Speaker 2: Thank you, Rick Wilson, as.

1052
00:52:59,320 --> 00:53:01,319
Speaker 4: Always happy to be with you, and I will see

1053
00:53:01,320 --> 00:53:02,080
Speaker 4: you again next week.

1054
00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:02,600
Speaker 2: Yay.

1055
00:53:04,840 --> 00:53:08,120
Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in

1056
00:53:08,239 --> 00:53:11,440
Speaker 1: every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to hear the best minds

1057
00:53:11,480 --> 00:53:14,680
Speaker 1: in politics makes sense of all this chaos. If you

1058
00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:17,439
Speaker 1: enjoyed what you've heard, please send it to a friend

1059
00:53:17,520 --> 00:53:21,080
Speaker 1: and keep the conversation going. And again, thanks for listening.