1 00:00:01,400 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 2 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:10,400 Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 4 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, 6 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:20,320 Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. Retail sales, we've got some 7 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:23,720 Speaker 1: numbers out this morning, weaker than expected, wrapping up a 8 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 1: very difficult year for merchants. Let's get a sense of 9 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:29,600 Speaker 1: what's going on in the world of retail, and we 10 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:31,480 Speaker 1: could do that with one of the smartest voices out 11 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 1: there on retail. That's Sma Shaw. She's director of Consumer 12 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:38,159 Speaker 1: and Retail Trends ACT Credit Intel, joining us on the 13 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:40,800 Speaker 1: phone from Long Island. Sema, thanks so much for joining 14 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:44,880 Speaker 1: us here. Again, some weaker than expected retail sales this morning. 15 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 1: How's the consumer doing well? I think you have to 16 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 1: step back and think about how they have been doing 17 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 1: the whole year. I mean they have been pressured significantly 18 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 1: by the high levels of unemployment due to the pandemic. 19 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 1: This emulus there was one in April and then one 20 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 1: that just hit in January, but it's quite a wide 21 00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:08,000 Speaker 1: time period, so I think people um were really struggling. 22 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 1: But at the same time, they are still spending, but 23 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:14,320 Speaker 1: they've changed the way that they spent. They shifted um 24 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:17,320 Speaker 1: to online and in many cases they took on debt 25 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 1: in order to pay for their holiday purchases, which is 26 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 1: somewhat why we've seen some positive numbers out of certain 27 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 1: categories and certain retailers. Which is going to store up 28 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 1: trouble down the line, right, what if those retailers themselves 29 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:33,400 Speaker 1: go broke or bust. I mean, at that point, does 30 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 1: the credits on the part of consumers just get wiped away. 31 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:45,039 Speaker 1: If the retailer goes bankrupt and they're owed money from 32 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 1: these consumers, it's it's likely the consumer will just never 33 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 1: pay because whatever assets are owned by the bankrupt retailer 34 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 1: will be taken um or you know, in order of 35 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 1: seniority by their debt holders. UM. But it's just more 36 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 1: this is more of a risk of just pushing the problem, 37 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 1: you know, down the line and consumers. You know, Joe 38 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 1: Biden released his plan last night, but you know, we 39 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,239 Speaker 1: really need to see a huge uptick and a reversal 40 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:14,120 Speaker 1: and the employment numbers, uh, in order to see this 41 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:17,960 Speaker 1: ability to continue to spend without having too much debt, 42 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 1: right and so yeah, so seem that there's one of 43 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 1: the things we hear about a lot of you know, 44 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 1: is that consumers savings are really ramping up, and that potentially, uh, 45 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:33,360 Speaker 1: that could be pent up demand, pent up spending. When 46 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 1: we get to the other side of that, what are 47 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 1: the retailers saying about that opportunity for growth maybe in 48 00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 1: the second half of this year. They don't comment so 49 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:45,400 Speaker 1: much on the spending rate. And while I agree there 50 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:49,359 Speaker 1: probably has been some increased savings simply because there's there 51 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:53,399 Speaker 1: was nowhere to go or nothing to necessarily buy um, 52 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 1: there is still a more a large person of the 53 00:02:56,280 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 1: population that had to dip into savings to manage their 54 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:04,799 Speaker 1: household bills over the last nine months. And I don't 55 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 1: think that that will change anytime soon. But what will 56 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 1: change is that if there is an uptick, we should 57 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 1: start seeing an uptick across retails, particularly the more depressed 58 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 1: categories like apparel, but we should also see a surge 59 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 1: and travel and experience oriented uh type of retailers or 60 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:26,960 Speaker 1: companies you know, including restaurants and bars. Well, actually will 61 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:31,040 Speaker 1: be Out got a story I finished by Jordan Holman 62 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 1: about November and December retail sales gains, the NRS saying 63 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 1: that there were eight point three from a year earlier 64 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: in the group of priory forecast just a gain of 65 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 1: three point six to five point two. Is most of 66 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 1: that then on credit cards? Using seema, I think a 67 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 1: large portion of that is on credit cards. And another 68 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 1: reason why I would think that is also because there's 69 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:55,920 Speaker 1: a huge surgeon online sales and digital sales obviously require 70 00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 1: typically a credit card to complete the transaction. So I 71 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:03,000 Speaker 1: I definitely think there's a lot of pushing the problem 72 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 1: off to the future for sure. Hey see, but one 73 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:08,120 Speaker 1: of the things that we've talked about with you in 74 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 1: the past is kind of just the retail footprint in 75 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 1: this country, maybe still too overstored in this country. What 76 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 1: has the pandemic done to the store footprint and kind 77 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 1: of how do you think that's going to play out, 78 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 1: you know, over the next year or so. Right, This 79 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:28,040 Speaker 1: is something that we get Credidental have looked at quite closely. 80 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:32,159 Speaker 1: So the initial impact from the pandemic was clearly that 81 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:35,120 Speaker 1: any retailers that were struggling around the brink, those went 82 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 1: bankrupt and that in many cases led to UH store 83 00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 1: liquidations and massive store closures. UM. As we've progressed, the 84 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 1: retailers that have continued to hang on, a lot of 85 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:49,360 Speaker 1: what we're seeing is they're thinking of rethinking their footprints, 86 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 1: optimizing their footprint because of the impact of online and 87 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 1: the fact that online is becoming more important and it's 88 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:58,680 Speaker 1: really more about being an omni retailer versus just multiple channel. 89 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:02,240 Speaker 1: So I still think continue to see retailers trim their footprints. 90 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: UM and you'll focus on stores that are outperforming. So 91 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:06,719 Speaker 1: you see this in Dead Bath and beyond this clothing 92 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:09,599 Speaker 1: a fair numbers stores they also sold two banners, and 93 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 1: other retailers are doing the same thing to you know, 94 00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:14,799 Speaker 1: find the better locations and keep the ones that are 95 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:17,600 Speaker 1: performing the beast. I mean, you have the Dragon Sail. 96 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:22,479 Speaker 1: Will they all just move to Amazon? Are you talking 97 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 1: about consumers? I mean, I'm talking about all the male 98 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 1: stores that have to close, the twelve thousand that we 99 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 1: know that are closing around the country. I mean, they 100 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:33,159 Speaker 1: have merchandise, and they have good brands. Do they just 101 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 1: sell them via Amazon? Um, there will be a portion 102 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:40,040 Speaker 1: who do that, but there are also other companies that 103 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 1: buy sort of brands that have struggled to like pier 104 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:45,599 Speaker 1: One was purchased by a company and then they start 105 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: recreating merchandise and selling just online. So I think you'll 106 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 1: see some portion go to Amazon, but you might also 107 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:55,360 Speaker 1: see people create shops like on Shopify or something like 108 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 1: to that then to create versus being on Amazon, because 109 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:01,520 Speaker 1: Amazon is a huge competitive rest so they might be 110 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:04,799 Speaker 1: better off doing it on Shopify where they can control 111 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 1: their inventory and they can see what consumers are. Thank 112 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:11,320 Speaker 1: you so much, always abasure speaking with you, Michelle. They're 113 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 1: all credits Intel. One of the bigger themes we've talked 114 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 1: about over the last several years has been the convergence 115 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:23,560 Speaker 1: between media and technology, and arguely, this pandemic and the 116 00:06:23,640 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 1: changing consumer habits has really accelerated that trend. And there's 117 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 1: nobody better on Wall Street to talk about this big 118 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 1: trend than Laura Martin. She's a senior analyst at Needham 119 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:36,200 Speaker 1: and Company based in Los Angeles. Laura, thanks so much 120 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 1: for joining us here. It's been a crazy time obviously 121 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:41,640 Speaker 1: in markets. It's been a crazy time in terms of 122 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 1: consumer behavior as it relates to how we consume media, 123 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:48,080 Speaker 1: and technology. What are some of the big themes you're 124 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:53,359 Speaker 1: looking at investors? So I think our biggest theme is 125 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:56,159 Speaker 1: this streaming theme, which squarely sits at the intersection of 126 00:06:56,200 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 1: technology and media and specifically ad driven streaming. So um, 127 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 1: the streaming installed based devices like connected TVs and streaming 128 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 1: sticks doubled during the pandemic, and that benefited Netflix subscribers, 129 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 1: Disney subscribers who lose subscribers. But who it didn't benefit 130 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 1: is the advertising driven streaming services like Roku, because advertising 131 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:21,440 Speaker 1: was thirty billion dollars lower than it was supposed to 132 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:24,520 Speaker 1: be last year because entire categories were turned off. We 133 00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:29,800 Speaker 1: think that then reverses in and the subscriptions streaming services 134 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 1: like Netflix lose subscribers. We haven't underperformed there, and instead 135 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:36,880 Speaker 1: they pivot to things like Roku and Pluto and to Be, 136 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 1: which are ad driven because advertising is going to come 137 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 1: back in, right, and it does feel like there has 138 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 1: to be some kind of consolidation, right. Many people who 139 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 1: hadn't called the chord had been adding one or two 140 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:51,200 Speaker 1: services here and there, and then COVID hit and I 141 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:54,560 Speaker 1: don't know, but I added everything I could find. If 142 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 1: you know, it didn't really matter what price point, if 143 00:07:57,040 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 1: it was free, it was no more valuable to me 144 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 1: than if it was you know, twenty bucks and months. 145 00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:05,560 Speaker 1: Do people like me get rid of some of these 146 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:09,520 Speaker 1: you know tell me my future? Uh? They do. I 147 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 1: would say this is non consensus for you, but I 148 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:13,800 Speaker 1: absolutely think you do. As you go back into the 149 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 1: real world's dinner with friends and two movies with your kids. 150 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: All of these uh in person events after post vaccine 151 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 1: are going to take away time in home. So the 152 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:27,680 Speaker 1: price value relationship every month gets worse and worse as 153 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 1: you go back into the real world. And so I 154 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:32,560 Speaker 1: think that the services that you use less or if 155 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 1: you've watched all the Netflix content, you're like, I'll take 156 00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:37,120 Speaker 1: a break from Netflix for six months, come back to 157 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:39,960 Speaker 1: it later and I'll watch my HBO now. And you 158 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 1: know you saw a Paramount Plus is gonna launch. We 159 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:45,560 Speaker 1: just got the launch of Discovery Plus, which has interesting content. 160 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 1: I think people are going to turn more between services 161 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 1: as well, but have a core like three or four 162 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:55,120 Speaker 1: services total is my guest. Hey, laur No media company, 163 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 1: I would argue on the Planet has done a bigger 164 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:02,040 Speaker 1: pivot towards the streaming business than the Disney Company with 165 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 1: their Disney Plus and their ESPN plus and so on. 166 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 1: Are you surprised that well the stock has performed as 167 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 1: they make this pivot and lose so much of their 168 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:15,679 Speaker 1: existing profitability on something that may be a little bit unproven. 169 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:17,240 Speaker 1: Are you surprised that how well the stock is done 170 00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:20,680 Speaker 1: near and all time high? I am, and I will 171 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: uh By Polly and I followed this company for twenty 172 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 1: years together for competitors, so I would say, I am. 173 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 1: I would say part of the Disney h stock writes 174 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 1: improvement is about the reopen trade. Because these same parks 175 00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 1: which used to be thirty of you are shut down 176 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:38,319 Speaker 1: and earning zero. So I think part of it is 177 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 1: the reopen trade on the same parks and the cruise 178 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:45,080 Speaker 1: ships coming back and the theaters too coming back. So 179 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:48,080 Speaker 1: it is a reopen trade as well as being a streaming, 180 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 1: absolutely streaming pivot trade as well. Yeah, I mean, is 181 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 1: there any legal liability at any point? To be We 182 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:58,120 Speaker 1: hear about you know, Disney having to sequesters on tourists 183 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 1: and you know, their very own theme bar without a theme. 184 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 1: I like that the same part without Okay, yes, I 185 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:08,559 Speaker 1: do think so, but I'm hoping, you know, post pandemic. 186 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 1: I would say Disney has a lot of Ernie's momentum 187 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 1: to the upside because it is getting hurt in the 188 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 1: media space the most right now. And I think it's 189 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:18,440 Speaker 1: sort of courageous of them to just keep spending money 190 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 1: on streaming. I think they've really committed to that strategically, 191 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 1: so I think that's courageous. And they started with a 192 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 1: double A balance sheet, so they're gonna have plenty of 193 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:28,720 Speaker 1: financial with what're all to do it all to keep 194 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 1: up with streaming and to have no money coming in 195 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:35,440 Speaker 1: from their core businesses. But that should reverse itself next year. So, 196 00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:38,319 Speaker 1: Laura you mentioned do you have an underperformed rating on 197 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 1: Netflix that is certainly out of consensus with twenty eight buys, 198 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:45,040 Speaker 1: ten holds and only six cells are underperforms. What's your 199 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:48,840 Speaker 1: thesis there? So our thesis there is not only that 200 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 1: there's you'd rather, We'd rather be somewhere else, sicklessly, we 201 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 1: more ad driven and less description driven. There's much more 202 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:58,640 Speaker 1: upsides to earning in ad driven businesses as the vaccine 203 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 1: rolls out, so that's part of it. And then more secularly, 204 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:04,120 Speaker 1: and I'd be shocked if you didn't agree with US 205 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:06,680 Speaker 1: follows a long time meeting Alice, I really do believe 206 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:11,080 Speaker 1: in the bundles and an integration. So for example, Discovery 207 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 1: Plus and now Paramount Plus will have five revenue streams 208 00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 1: for the same piece of content. Netflix has one, and 209 00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 1: it can't cross promote other things like theme parks or 210 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:26,080 Speaker 1: Merge or ABC's entertainment. It has no other revenue streams 211 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:27,920 Speaker 1: and it's about to go to war for the next 212 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:33,559 Speaker 1: five years with deep pocketed multi stylo dister subscidioes. TBS 213 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:35,720 Speaker 1: has a billion five or free cash flow, free cash 214 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 1: flow and seventeen assets that can can monetize content of seventeen. Well, 215 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:43,400 Speaker 1: it's going to be such an exciting time because you 216 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:46,040 Speaker 1: also cover the gamers and they're going to be exciting too. 217 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:49,760 Speaker 1: But Laura, you know a little niche question Fubo TV, 218 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:53,800 Speaker 1: what ends up happening with it? So Football TV is 219 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:57,319 Speaker 1: doing something really interesting, um and that and so and 220 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:00,240 Speaker 1: and that's so. Therefore the contentious, polarizing stock. If we're 221 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:03,760 Speaker 1: going to try to do is integrate for betting onto 222 00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 1: the face of a digit of streaming service to focus 223 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 1: on sports. If they get that done, it will become 224 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 1: the savior of the linear TV bundle for car Charter 225 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:17,560 Speaker 1: and Altise and Comcast, those big companies can't do it 226 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:22,200 Speaker 1: because high you know, high priced, high powered Silicon Valley 227 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 1: twenty year olds won't go work for those big companies. 228 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:27,280 Speaker 1: But Bubo is hiring those tech geniuses to try to 229 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:30,720 Speaker 1: figure out how to integrate sports wagering onto the screen 230 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 1: while you watch a game. Very interesting, Laura, What are 231 00:12:34,679 --> 00:12:36,720 Speaker 1: your thoughts on the cable stock for here, the Comcast 232 00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:40,719 Speaker 1: and the Charters of the world. Um, So, I think 233 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,200 Speaker 1: they're hedged, you know. I think this riot and streaming 234 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:46,199 Speaker 1: people call up their cable operator and need faster speeds, 235 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 1: and they pay more so their hedges and streaming, and 236 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:52,160 Speaker 1: they have eighty percent margins in their modem business. I 237 00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:55,199 Speaker 1: think the regulatory scrutiny will no longer be on them. 238 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: I think it's all about big tech. The regulators are 239 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:02,560 Speaker 1: really going to focus on these this Twitter, you know, Twitter, Facebook, 240 00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 1: YouTube all banning your Republicans. It's gonna is scaring the UH, 241 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 1: scaring Washington d C. And they really want to moderate 242 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 1: the power of these big texts. So I think cable 243 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:15,360 Speaker 1: doesn't have a regulatory issue, which is a big deal. 244 00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:18,440 Speaker 1: Um so um, I like the cable stocks, but I 245 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 1: don't cover them all. Yeah, but Laura, Paul is going 246 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 1: to say a boy in a moment, but we will 247 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:28,199 Speaker 1: have maybe a podcast or something a little different. I 248 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:31,360 Speaker 1: want to hear all those stories, but your time competing 249 00:13:31,400 --> 00:13:34,960 Speaker 1: with Paul investment, banking and analysis, and we'll get the 250 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 1: on the side and maybe put it as an add 251 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 1: on to our podcast to tape or something like that. 252 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 1: So Paul, thank you, and thank you to Laura from 253 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:48,040 Speaker 1: need him. That is Laura Martin, Senior analyst at Needham 254 00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 1: and Company. We've been speaking for years. But of course, 255 00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:52,560 Speaker 1: said Paul, I didn't know she was your competitor. Yeah, 256 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 1: we were. We we worked together, then we competed against 257 00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:56,959 Speaker 1: each other. So we've been covering this media space for 258 00:13:57,000 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 1: a long time. So she's one of the best. It 259 00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 1: is now time to get an update on the vaccine 260 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:07,320 Speaker 1: distribution process and where we are with coronavirus as we 261 00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:11,079 Speaker 1: know already at records. Lawrence Ower is Assistant Professor of 262 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 1: Emergency Medicine at Johns Hopkins University. Lauren, we just had 263 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:16,800 Speaker 1: a headline cross the Bloomberg. Mayor Bill de Blasio of 264 00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 1: New York City saying that New York City is going 265 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:23,520 Speaker 1: to run out of vaccine doses next week. What is 266 00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 1: the point of advertising this? I mean, are there blockages 267 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:32,600 Speaker 1: that are just you know, frustrating this mayor, and and 268 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:35,600 Speaker 1: if so, what can we do about it? Yeah, I 269 00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 1: do think it's a bit of um frustration. Um, the 270 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:43,160 Speaker 1: both the Blasio and Governor Cuomo have really had put 271 00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 1: a hard push forward for getting more vaccine into their 272 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 1: state and city. And I know that New York did 273 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 1: just expand to begin to vaccinate their elderly populations as well, 274 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:57,560 Speaker 1: which many states across the country are doing, especially given 275 00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 1: the challenges with getting vaccines to the healthcare worker population 276 00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 1: and the essential personnel population. Um. So they want to 277 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 1: use the vaccination, the vaccine that they have on hand 278 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 1: and get that into as many people who are willing 279 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:12,680 Speaker 1: to take it as possible. And New York opened up 280 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 1: a bunch of vaccine hubs, so they they built these 281 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 1: major or are building these major sites to really distribute 282 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 1: vaccine quickly. So I think a big piece of this 283 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 1: is actually a push, you know, to put a little 284 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 1: pressure on the federal government to say, hey, we're doing 285 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 1: our part now New Years to get us vaccine as 286 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:32,960 Speaker 1: quickly as possible, Lauren. You know, actually in my Twitter feed, 287 00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:34,480 Speaker 1: I would say, over the last day or two, I'm 288 00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 1: seeing more stories that perhaps, um, you know, the cases 289 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 1: you know, the vaccine, I mean, the number of cases 290 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:46,760 Speaker 1: in hospitals maybe peeking and turning down, the number of 291 00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 1: infections being reported maybe turning down. Are you seeing that 292 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:53,000 Speaker 1: at Johns Hopkins. I'll tell you right now, we are 293 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:54,680 Speaker 1: not feeling that we've had a little bit of a 294 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:58,280 Speaker 1: leveling off is probably the best place we could get. 295 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 1: But um, you know, that might just be that people 296 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 1: are trying to avoid coming into the hospital m because 297 00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:08,560 Speaker 1: they've heard so much about this crisis space that many 298 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 1: hospitals across the state and across the country are in. Right. So, UM, 299 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:16,080 Speaker 1: if I was mildly ill or had even moderate symptoms 300 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 1: and I heard that the hospitals were just sending people home, 301 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:22,160 Speaker 1: you know, to complace at home, or um that hospitals 302 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:24,320 Speaker 1: were in crisis mode, and I might be transported to 303 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 1: a field hospital, people might second guess their decision to 304 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 1: go to a hospital. UM. So I think we're all 305 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:33,880 Speaker 1: hopeful that perhaps there is a leveling off happening um 306 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 1: across the country. But I think we're also waiting to 307 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:38,520 Speaker 1: see you know, we're on the tail end of that 308 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:42,720 Speaker 1: New Year's and Christmas holiday travel. Um, so it could 309 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 1: get worse again before it gets better. Yeah, it's interesting. 310 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 1: When will we see the peak of what might have 311 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,480 Speaker 1: gone on over the holidays. I mean, we're already two 312 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 1: weeks into January. I would have thought that we'd have 313 00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 1: seen the peak from at least the holiday meetings by now. Yeah, 314 00:16:59,800 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 1: I think there is still a ton of virus out 315 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:06,800 Speaker 1: there in the communities across the country. So um, and 316 00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:10,920 Speaker 1: and anecdotally we're hearing from friends and colleagues that, Um, 317 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:14,159 Speaker 1: there's people who have been very cautious throughout all of 318 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:17,640 Speaker 1: this who are exhausted of being cautious and are sort 319 00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:19,399 Speaker 1: of letting their guard down. And so there might be 320 00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:22,479 Speaker 1: this whole population of people who have been very safe, 321 00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:25,880 Speaker 1: very cautious, taken all the necessary precautions, and um, if 322 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:27,720 Speaker 1: they start to let their guard down, that's an entire 323 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:31,200 Speaker 1: new group of potential people that could be exposed to 324 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 1: this virus. And thing about the communities, Lauren, what do 325 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:38,600 Speaker 1: you and your colleagues in the healthcare industry expect to 326 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 1: change from the Trump administration to the Biden administration in 327 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:47,159 Speaker 1: terms of federal management of this crisis and now perhaps 328 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:51,800 Speaker 1: federal management of vaccine distribution. I think that's what we're 329 00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:54,479 Speaker 1: all looking for right as federal management. And so I 330 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:57,959 Speaker 1: think that the biggest hope that a lot of us 331 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 1: have is that we'll see a more system adic approach 332 00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:06,360 Speaker 1: across the country, more guidance, more UM clear direction from 333 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 1: both Operation warp Feed or whatever it turns into, but 334 00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:13,440 Speaker 1: also from our UM, you know, really important long trusted, 335 00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 1: long held public health agencies UM, particularly CDC, that they're 336 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:21,160 Speaker 1: going to issue guidance that's going to be clear, direct 337 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:24,720 Speaker 1: to think, and implementable, and that states across the country 338 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 1: can really implement it. I also think people are sort 339 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,240 Speaker 1: of crossing their fingers for a national mask mandate. I 340 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:33,000 Speaker 1: think that could UM really do a lot of good 341 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:36,439 Speaker 1: across the country UM in slowing the spread and putting 342 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:39,359 Speaker 1: a damper on those cases. Yeah. Interesting, we have one 343 00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 1: in Congress at least now, Lauren, you know, and I'm 344 00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:44,919 Speaker 1: concerning a little on New York because they're the governors 345 00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 1: I tend to see in in in you know, my 346 00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,119 Speaker 1: headlines here on the Bloomberg Given that I'm in New 347 00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:52,359 Speaker 1: York City, but Governor Cuomo did seem to do a 348 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:54,359 Speaker 1: little bit of U turn recently talking about how we 349 00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 1: need to reopen the economy and we need to find 350 00:18:56,720 --> 00:19:00,439 Speaker 1: more ways to let businesses reopen safely. I mean, given 351 00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 1: that we're in a more dangerous time now than ever, 352 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:08,800 Speaker 1: is that wise? You know? I think, Um, we in 353 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:11,119 Speaker 1: public health get sort of this bad rep of not 354 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:13,640 Speaker 1: wanting the economy open. And no one wants the economy 355 00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:17,040 Speaker 1: open and successfully running more than us. You know. It's 356 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:20,600 Speaker 1: the economy is so critically important to our ability to 357 00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:26,440 Speaker 1: manage this virus long term, right, Um, it's a functioning 358 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:29,119 Speaker 1: economy is absolutely critical. But the way to get to 359 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:31,679 Speaker 1: a functioning economy is to reduce the amount of virus 360 00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 1: is circulating in the population so that people can safely 361 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:38,639 Speaker 1: go about, um their business. And so I think both 362 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:42,400 Speaker 1: reopening the economy and getting schools back on track has 363 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 1: to be a priority. Um, But it has to be 364 00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 1: done safely, or else we're just going to be in 365 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:49,960 Speaker 1: this endless cycle of opening and closing and opening and 366 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:52,399 Speaker 1: closing and opening and closing. So that the key, I 367 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 1: think is to get those policies in place to get 368 00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:58,159 Speaker 1: rid of the virus as quickly as possible. Vaccine is 369 00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:00,880 Speaker 1: going to help, but solo masks and so well continued 370 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:04,320 Speaker 1: social distancing until we get there. Lawrence Sour, thank you 371 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:06,640 Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Once again, we always appreciate 372 00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 1: your insights, Lawrence Sour. She's Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine 373 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:14,440 Speaker 1: at the JOHNS Hopkins School of Medicine. Uh bloo bloom 374 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:18,359 Speaker 1: Bloomberg School of Public Health is supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, 375 00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:22,640 Speaker 1: founder of Bloomberg LPEO Bloomberg Philanthropies and this radio operation 376 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:26,400 Speaker 1: all right, well, we are going to have a conversation 377 00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:30,200 Speaker 1: now about banks because right now the world's hardgo coal 378 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 1: is ongoing. We got wells and we got cities so 379 00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 1: far today. So let's bring in Alison Williams, Senior Industry 380 00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:41,119 Speaker 1: Analystic Global Investment, Banks and Asset Management at Bloomberg Intelligence. 381 00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 1: And of course, as always we have our cross Asset 382 00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:45,720 Speaker 1: reporter Sarah pon Zach here with us. Alison, thanks for 383 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:50,119 Speaker 1: jumping off the call. Charlie Sharf with some very colorful language, 384 00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:52,000 Speaker 1: let's put it that way. He says that the goal 385 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 1: is to be the pre eminent provider of US financial services, 386 00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:58,760 Speaker 1: and the strategy is about becoming crisper about target markets. 387 00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:00,800 Speaker 1: It all sounds a little bit vague and hopeful to me, 388 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:05,040 Speaker 1: Am I being too cynical. Well, I think that that 389 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:09,200 Speaker 1: is UM perhaps some of the frustration that investors are 390 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:12,680 Speaker 1: feeling with UM Wells Fargo. So UM. You know, Charlie 391 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:14,480 Speaker 1: has has sort of been in his seat for a 392 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 1: while now, and since that day, investors have been waiting 393 00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 1: UM to see how his strategy is going to reshape 394 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 1: the bank. And one of the biggest levers is costs UM. 395 00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:31,360 Speaker 1: So so two things. So first UM, I think investors 396 00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:33,520 Speaker 1: are still waiting to get more more detail on the 397 00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,640 Speaker 1: bigger picture strategy. But the two numbers that we got 398 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:40,800 Speaker 1: today we're disappointing. And so costs looking um higher than 399 00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:44,879 Speaker 1: expected for this year and that interest income looking lower 400 00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 1: than than expected. So both of those are negatives. But 401 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,479 Speaker 1: but it's really the cost um side that things are 402 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:52,919 Speaker 1: focused on. And and the other tie in that I'll 403 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:56,640 Speaker 1: perhaps make to UM, JP, Morgan UM and black Rock 404 00:21:56,720 --> 00:22:00,840 Speaker 1: which we got yesterday, to banks that are actually executing 405 00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:04,480 Speaker 1: a very strongly gaining share in their businesses. But both 406 00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:08,240 Speaker 1: of those companies talking about higher investment spending. Wells Fargo 407 00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:12,320 Speaker 1: also UM outlining its investment spend UM, which may be 408 00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,480 Speaker 1: part of the higher costs for next year. And Allison, 409 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:17,560 Speaker 1: you know Wells Fargo. You know, they've always been such 410 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:21,439 Speaker 1: a very strong consumer banking brand less so on the 411 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:25,080 Speaker 1: corporate and investment banking side, they've made some recent comments 412 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,800 Speaker 1: about ramping up their investment banking business. How is the 413 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:33,920 Speaker 1: market perceiving that. I think that, um, you know, that's 414 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:37,439 Speaker 1: been an area where I think investors over time have 415 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:40,840 Speaker 1: thought about, you know that that could be an opportunity 416 00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 1: for the bank. They did, you know, if you go 417 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,919 Speaker 1: back very long term, you know when they bought Wakovia 418 00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 1: sort of get a little bit bigger in that business. UM. 419 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,480 Speaker 1: Their wealth management business is also something that's that's little 420 00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:55,400 Speaker 1: talked about, that's done well for them. However, asset management 421 00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:59,000 Speaker 1: is a bit a little bit UM subscale UM and 422 00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:00,679 Speaker 1: and that sort of versus some of the some of 423 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:04,040 Speaker 1: the bigger competitors. So UM, it seems like there could 424 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,640 Speaker 1: be some opportunity on the investment facing side, But keep 425 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,560 Speaker 1: in mind that this is already an area that is 426 00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 1: UM super competitive UM and so a lot of times 427 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:18,440 Speaker 1: when banks talk about going into attractive areas UM that 428 00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,639 Speaker 1: it is a consideration in terms of who who is 429 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:25,879 Speaker 1: already there. And if you look at UM again, JP Morgan, 430 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,160 Speaker 1: we've talked about the virtuous spycle cycle of their tech 431 00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,919 Speaker 1: spending and they're going to be spending more and that 432 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:34,280 Speaker 1: is really one of the areas that has helped them 433 00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:37,440 Speaker 1: to be UM successful in their business. And what we've 434 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:42,400 Speaker 1: actually seen is the biggest company's consolidating share and so 435 00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:46,080 Speaker 1: UM you know, wells Fargo potentially getting more aggressive is 436 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:50,120 Speaker 1: in contrast to some other UM folks leaving the business UM, 437 00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,200 Speaker 1: so we would want to hear more about how they're 438 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,240 Speaker 1: going to differentiate. And Alison, before you have to go, 439 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,639 Speaker 1: I do want to ask about the old enmity that's 440 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 1: coming back again at the City and you know it 441 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:04,120 Speaker 1: was other banks at other periods, including Golden Sacks. The 442 00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:08,000 Speaker 1: folks trading spread products and other instruments managed to post 443 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:11,159 Speaker 1: a fifty eight percent increase in those revenues and that 444 00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:13,920 Speaker 1: made up a little bit for the drop in revenue 445 00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:17,920 Speaker 1: that the firm's rates and currencies traders had. How will 446 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,880 Speaker 1: that go down when it comes to bonus season? So 447 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,480 Speaker 1: I think UM two things they're keep in mind that, 448 00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 1: you know, when we look at these sort of year 449 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:27,960 Speaker 1: over year comparisons, and it always depends on on what 450 00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:30,840 Speaker 1: was working in the prior year. And I would also 451 00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 1: point out that the rates and currencies business was a 452 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:36,040 Speaker 1: huge driver of a lot of the uplift that we 453 00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:40,639 Speaker 1: saw in the first half, So UM to some extent, 454 00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,919 Speaker 1: it is a little bit about comparisons, I think with 455 00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:48,000 Speaker 1: regarding with regard to bonuses UM. So Bloomberg News is 456 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:52,640 Speaker 1: obviously reported on UM different policies across the banks. Obviously 457 00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:56,240 Speaker 1: the banks are UM, you know, vocal about considering all 458 00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 1: stakeholders in terms of they want to pay for performance. Again, 459 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,879 Speaker 1: we talked about the technology investment, but there's also a 460 00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,480 Speaker 1: level of talent investment if you want to be successful 461 00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:10,960 Speaker 1: in these businesses UM. But also balancing that with UM, 462 00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:13,400 Speaker 1: you know, concerns about what we're seeing in the economy. 463 00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 1: We've also had some big banks take some big legal 464 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,320 Speaker 1: hits UM, and so that's sort of a consideration, a 465 00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:23,600 Speaker 1: broader consideration. Alison Williams, thank you so much. We appreciate that. 466 00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:28,159 Speaker 1: Alison Williams, senior Banks analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence, giving us 467 00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:32,080 Speaker 1: some thoughts of big banks, uh turning really has time 468 00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:35,439 Speaker 1: for them to show and gets some mixed results today. 469 00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:37,880 Speaker 1: Sarah Ponzac, We've just in the least, you know, four 470 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,159 Speaker 1: or five minutes, we've seen the markets really roll over here. 471 00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,440 Speaker 1: What's going on? Right? We really have It doesn't seem 472 00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:45,200 Speaker 1: like there's any true headlines that have come across the tape, 473 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,280 Speaker 1: at least that I've seen so far, that have caused this. 474 00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:50,240 Speaker 1: But whatever cor i s identity be sure over there 475 00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:52,600 Speaker 1: is pointing out is the fact that all week long 476 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,760 Speaker 1: it felt like there was this pent up nervous energy 477 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:59,119 Speaker 1: almost and you saw it really asserting it itself in 478 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:01,880 Speaker 1: different areas of the markets that we've discussed, that being 479 00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:05,199 Speaker 1: in penny stocks in different areas of the market, just 480 00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:07,760 Speaker 1: soaring left and right. And what he's saying is that 481 00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,080 Speaker 1: to him, it feels that institutional investors might not be 482 00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:13,600 Speaker 1: comfortable until some of the retail investors get cleaned out 483 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:15,200 Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, we haven't seen a day 484 00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:16,720 Speaker 1: like this in quite a while. It feels like we're 485 00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,400 Speaker 1: really seeing this selling start to spiral. Now we see 486 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:22,360 Speaker 1: the SMP down one percent, I'm looking at the NASDAC 487 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,080 Speaker 1: down one percent as well, the Russell two thousand down 488 00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:28,000 Speaker 1: one point seven percent, and we really do see a 489 00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:31,800 Speaker 1: sputtering of this reflation trade. Energy. You're best performing sector 490 00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:34,159 Speaker 1: this year, Well, today it's your worst sector. After the 491 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,680 Speaker 1: bank reports Financials down more than two percent, your second 492 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,480 Speaker 1: worst sector today. Sarah, thank you so much for joining. 493 00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:42,960 Speaker 1: We appreciate that. Sarah Ponza, cross asset reporter for Bloomberg News, 494 00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:46,359 Speaker 1: and of course Alison Williams, Senior banks analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence. 495 00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:51,800 Speaker 1: Here markets selling off this morning, big banks reporting mixed numbers. 496 00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:56,240 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe 497 00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:59,280 Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever a 498 00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,320 Speaker 1: podcast by form you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn, I'm on 499 00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:04,919 Speaker 1: Twitter at Bonnie Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on 500 00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 1: Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always 501 00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:09,760 Speaker 1: catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio