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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites Podcast presented by DraftKings. The crown

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Speaker 1: is yours. Your Favorites duo is back. I'm Brandon Kravitz

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Speaker 1: joined by Stucky Kendra out on a Jags bender for today,

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Speaker 1: but we got plenty to get to and we'll catch

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Speaker 1: her up on Thursday's episode.

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Speaker 2: Today, we've got.

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Speaker 1: Our plant the Flag games for week five, a breakdown

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Speaker 1: of the needle moving storylines, and of course the main

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Speaker 1: event on Tuesday's Evans Tuesday primer. Stucky the shirt has

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Speaker 1: been purchased. This goes back a couple of lost bets

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Speaker 1: ago to you. I'm getting dog walked over here with

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Speaker 1: these head to head bets with you. It's I don't

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Speaker 1: know if you can see this. It says the cutest

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Speaker 1: pumpkin in the patch. So I kind of mit you

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Speaker 1: in the middle with the stuff that you sent over.

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Speaker 1: But credit to you. You've been killing me in these yep.

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Speaker 3: Now you gotta about the Falcons money line against the bill,

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Speaker 3: so I'll put some more money in your pocket. Oh,

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Speaker 3: I didn't even mention we buried the lead. We hit

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Speaker 3: our our parlay because we bullied you into a bunch

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Speaker 3: of picks.

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Speaker 1: You didn't like and ironically enough, because I'm not just

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Speaker 1: going to place a bet that I don't wholeheartedly believe in.

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Speaker 1: I'm glad that the Favorites as a group that we

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Speaker 1: won our parlay.

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Speaker 2: This was the first.

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Speaker 1: Week that I didn't put the parlay in the app

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Speaker 1: on my individual account.

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Speaker 2: I actually did not.

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Speaker 1: I didn't financially benefit, but I hope that all of

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Speaker 1: you did. I had two of the three. I was

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Speaker 1: on the Rams minus three and a half. The Giants

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Speaker 1: plus the six and a half was my personal play,

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Speaker 1: so I was on that. I just couldn't get to

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Speaker 1: the window on the Jags. I was big on the

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Speaker 1: forty nine ers last week, but that was a prove

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Speaker 1: it game for me. Jacksonville showed me a little something

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Speaker 1: in that one. By the way, how'd the solo pod go?

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Speaker 1: Your solo podcasting careers taken off?

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Speaker 2: From what I hear, I.

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Speaker 3: Got good feedback on it, so people seem to enjoy it.

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Speaker 3: I love listening to myself talk so and I can ramble,

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Speaker 3: So yeah, it was it went okay. I don't know.

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Speaker 3: It's hard to judge a solo pod though, Like when

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Speaker 3: if you listen back yourself because you agree with everything

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Speaker 3: you say, it's your own thoughts, and there's no one

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Speaker 3: else to say anything.

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Speaker 1: So I just always end up going down in some

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Speaker 1: hole that, like, I have a hard time digging my

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Speaker 1: way back out of. But I don't think people out

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Speaker 1: there that are listening realize how hard it is to

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Speaker 1: do what you did on Sunday night, to just go

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Speaker 1: thirty minutes with no feedback at all on the shit

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Speaker 1: that you're throwing out there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I had no notes, no outline. I decided

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Speaker 3: to do it last minute, just as soon as the

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Speaker 3: game ended, and as soon as the Raiders game ended,

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Speaker 3: which was just a gut punch because I had the Raiders.

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Speaker 3: I was like, oh my.

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Speaker 1: God, you had a good Sunday, though, Is that part

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Speaker 1: of the reason. I mean, you were probably feeling it

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Speaker 1: a little bit.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I had a good Sunday. It could have been

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Speaker 3: a big one. I mean, just like last Sunday with

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Speaker 3: the Rams, like the games like that are such big

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Speaker 3: swings for your day and hopefully they just even out

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Speaker 3: of the course of the year. But I just haven't

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Speaker 3: got any I haven't got a single game in the

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Speaker 3: last minute to go my way. They've all gone against me.

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Speaker 3: Anyone that's a close coin flip has gone against me,

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Speaker 3: but that's that's what happens sometimes in the NFL. But

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Speaker 3: looking forward to this week, I mean, hopefully the games

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Speaker 3: are better than last night. Last night was horrendous. I mean,

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Speaker 3: I thought the reps were really bad. I thought the

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Speaker 3: Jets and the Bengals both got jobbed. Fortunately it didn't

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Speaker 3: matter for the Bengals, they just got dominated. It wouldn't

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Speaker 3: have mattered regardless. I'm worried about the Bengals quit factor,

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Speaker 3: like after they got down, like just all of the

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Speaker 3: the body language, the bickering. It's bad. It's bad now,

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Speaker 3: like part of me wants to potentially buy low. And

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Speaker 3: then this week off back to back twenty five plus

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Speaker 3: point losses, well.

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Speaker 2: For you to this point, what's that worked out well

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Speaker 2: for you to this point?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's usually how I look to bet

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Speaker 3: the NFL, and they've looked they played a Flores defense,

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Speaker 3: the Broncos defense, like they're gonna get a break this

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Speaker 3: week at home two against the Lions, who don't generate

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Speaker 3: nearly as much pressure as either one of those teams

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Speaker 3: who are like one to two in pressure rate. But

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Speaker 3: I feel it's just if they get behind the defense

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Speaker 3: is so bad, like the Lions is still gonna be

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Speaker 3: able to gash through them. But at ten I could

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Speaker 3: only look their way. I thought the Jets did legit

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Speaker 3: I didn't have any money on the game. I kind

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Speaker 3: of liked the Dolphins in the over which both hit

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Speaker 3: didn't play either, but I thought the Jets legitimately got

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Speaker 3: jobbed and they should have won that game. If you

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Speaker 3: look at net success rate for the week, so of

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Speaker 3: the teams that won, the luckiest team the two luckiest

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Speaker 3: teams were the rate are the Bears and the luckiest

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Speaker 3: was the Dolphins. They were like minus fifteen percent net

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Speaker 3: success rate. I mean, you look at that game. They

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Speaker 3: got out gained four o four to three hundred, the

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Speaker 3: yards per play seven point one to five point four

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Speaker 3: the Jets. The fumbles were killer. The Jets didn't score

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Speaker 3: in either red zone trip, they lost the turn of

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Speaker 3: a battle three nothing, and the Jets had thirteen penalties

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Speaker 3: for one hundred and one yards. So I know the

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Speaker 3: Jets deserve to win that game, and they were a

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Speaker 3: bit unlucky and got jobbed by the refs there. But

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Speaker 3: both those teams are very bad. It was but I

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Speaker 3: did think the Jets got job. I'm looking to fade

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Speaker 3: Miami this week in Carolina. That might be my plant

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Speaker 3: flag game off a fraudulent win short week now no

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Speaker 3: Tyreek Hill going up against a zone heavy defense where

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Speaker 3: Tuoa can really struggle against and you can really slow

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Speaker 3: down that offense. So that might be my plant to

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Speaker 3: flag game. But looking forward to better games than what

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Speaker 3: we saw last night. That was a rough Monday night doubleheader.

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Speaker 1: Not all double headers are created equal. That was definitely

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Speaker 1: one that I think we could have lived without. I

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Speaker 1: had the dual screen going, and I didn't really enjoy

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Speaker 1: much of it outside of the fact that my Dolphins

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Speaker 1: did get their first win of the season. You lose

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Speaker 1: your star wide receiver in the process. I think in

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Speaker 1: some ways it can actually help the way that they

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Speaker 1: operate offensively, but we'll get to that in a seconds.

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Speaker 1: Before I move off completely of how you've just dog

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Speaker 1: walked me with these bets, I want to point out

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Speaker 1: something because there's I'm firmly of the belief I'm a

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Speaker 1: generally optimistic person.

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Speaker 2: You either win in sports.

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Speaker 1: Betting or you learn, and when you get smashed, whether

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Speaker 1: it's in a head to head with a podcast partner

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Speaker 1: or friend, or on your betting accounts. If you're not

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Speaker 1: taking notes of why it happened, then you're doing yourself

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Speaker 1: no favors. You astutely pointed out this weekend teams that

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Speaker 1: lost by thirty plus last week went two and zero

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Speaker 1: against the spread. That was until the Bengals with the

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Speaker 1: bed on Monday Night football. And so I kind of

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Speaker 1: have to take this one on the chin. I overreacted,

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Speaker 1: and it's the worst thing that you can do in

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Speaker 1: NFL betting. And it's not even about losing units off

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Speaker 1: of it. Because I didn't bet on the Washington Commanders.

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Speaker 1: That was the biggest head to head a battle that

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Speaker 1: you and I had. I just lost an opportunity to

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Speaker 1: bet on what was clearly a sharp side with the

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Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons. You have to be willing to stomach these things,

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Speaker 1: and I think that that is the balance.

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Speaker 2: There are some teams.

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Speaker 1: Out there that you just simply shouldn't trust your money with.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk about why. Tennessee is probably their example number

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Speaker 1: one on that. But after a blowout loss, if we're

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Speaker 1: talking about one bad week, a blowout or just an

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Speaker 1: off game, that's not an indication of a team that

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Speaker 1: you need to put in bet jail.

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Speaker 2: So lesson learned for me. One of the changes that

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Speaker 2: I made.

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Speaker 1: Off of this stuckey, and this is partially thanks to

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Speaker 1: chat GPT, I did ask what they're looking at as

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Speaker 1: far as a margin of victory cap the numbers that

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Speaker 1: I generate myself, which are not Gospel people. I'm very

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Speaker 1: new at the power rating system, as evident with my

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Speaker 1: Panthers rating from a week ago, but I have a

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Speaker 1: cap to margin of victory now at twenty one, and

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Speaker 1: honestly I'm thinking about even lowering that.

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Speaker 2: But that was one of the things that I adjusted

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Speaker 2: for myself.

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Speaker 3: Hey, I'm happy that you're taking the time to try

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Speaker 3: and learn and improve and iterate on what you're working on.

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Speaker 3: That's all you can do. And yeah, are like, I

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Speaker 3: don't have I don't put any team in bet jail,

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Speaker 3: as evidence by my love in the past for betting

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Speaker 3: on the Titans. My best win of the week was

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Speaker 3: the Titans not covering and me not having money any

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Speaker 3: money on it. But they're historically I think I've probably

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Speaker 3: made out better by not doing that. But historically there

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Speaker 3: usually is a team maybe two that we'll just never cover.

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Speaker 3: The market will never catch up. It'll they'll be the

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Speaker 3: sharps will still bet them. I mean, I'm going back

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Speaker 3: like ten fifteen years there were Browns teams fifteen, fifteen,

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Speaker 3: twenty years ago. A lot of Browns teams over the

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Speaker 3: years that were so bad that would never cover, that

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Speaker 3: would always take money and then shit the bed. So

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Speaker 3: that there usually is a team maybe two, and it

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Speaker 3: has been the Titans for under Callahan over the past

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Speaker 3: two years. I mean, they're three and eighteen against the spread.

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Speaker 3: It's that that is stunning, like a stunning number with

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Speaker 3: an efficient market like the NFL, because the market will

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Speaker 3: keep dropping them and they just still keep not covering.

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Speaker 3: It's it's stunning. So yeah, like I bet Jail, I

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Speaker 3: think you can reserve for like I don't do it,

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Speaker 3: but it probably would have helped me in the past.

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Speaker 3: But you can reserve for like that one team that

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Speaker 3: is just isn't covering and you're just like, all right,

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Speaker 3: there's this team is there's just something seriously wrong, And

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Speaker 3: I think with the Titans it's injuries, but it's also

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Speaker 3: it's just a stat at the coaching, Like the coaching

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Speaker 3: is that bad that it's it makes everything even worse.

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Speaker 3: Than it already is for Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: I think the thing in looking back, if you're going

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Speaker 1: to put a team in bet jail, I think it

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Speaker 1: has to be a team that you you just have

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Speaker 1: to realize you have to cut your losses. You've bet

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Speaker 1: on them for multiple weeks in a row and they

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Speaker 1: continue to lose your money. I mean, you do have

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Speaker 1: to get to a point where you're just not that

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Speaker 1: stubborn about it and you continue betting on teams that

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Speaker 1: aren't winning for you. Where I look back in Atlanta

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Speaker 1: is I was on Atlanta plus three and a half

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Speaker 1: a week before they got blown out.

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Speaker 2: So it's not like this team cost me any money.

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Speaker 1: I just decided that I hated them, and that's Honestly,

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Speaker 1: this sounds so counterintuitive, but you'll probably agree with it.

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Speaker 1: One of the worst things you can do is an

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Speaker 1: NFL better is watch the games. I mean, it really does.

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Speaker 1: It just throws you off because it's hard not to.

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Speaker 1: Football is such an emotional sport. It's hard not to

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Speaker 1: emotionally react to what you see.

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Speaker 3: I disagree. I mean, I think for a lot of people, yes,

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Speaker 3: but I mean I've watched every snap of red zone

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Speaker 3: since it's like I've never missed the snap of the

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Speaker 3: NFL for you, from start to finish on a Sunday

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Speaker 3: of my life.

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Speaker 2: Stay on red Zone.

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Speaker 1: By the way, I think it's an important note for

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Speaker 1: sports betters out there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I zone on, and then I'll have I have

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Speaker 3: three other screens that I'll have other games on, so

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Speaker 3: I've like I usually have the red Zone and unless

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Speaker 3: it's like a really good game or the Raven sometimes

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Speaker 3: it's a really good game, I'll have that on my

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Speaker 3: main and then there's two. I have two, but a

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Speaker 3: lot of times it's Red Zone on top, and then

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Speaker 3: I'll have two games that I want to watch underneath,

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Speaker 3: and then by my laptop that I'm rotating through games.

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Speaker 3: I like to keep trying, like number one, the impact

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Speaker 3: of injuries. Looking at schematic stuff. I mean, like, for example,

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Speaker 3: the Chargers right now, I don't want to bet on

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Speaker 3: them against Washington because I don't I don't know what

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Speaker 3: they're gonna do about their offensive line. It was a

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Speaker 3: disaster against now the Giants have a really good front,

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Speaker 3: but they I mean they once they lost Joe All,

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Speaker 3: I mean, they had Austin Deculus in there. Left tackle

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Speaker 3: Bradley Boseman's been the worst center in the league. You

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Speaker 3: already lost your right tackle before the season, or you're

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Speaker 3: left tackle before the season, and then you have to

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Speaker 3: move all over. That's a mess. Like so and Beckdam

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Speaker 3: wasn't playing. I don't know what they're gonna do. They

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Speaker 3: might take this salar and kick them out the left tackle.

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Speaker 3: If they get becked them back, they might replace their

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Speaker 3: center this week. But Herbert had no chance, and it

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Speaker 3: led to two picks that led to two giant scores

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Speaker 3: that both of them are almost picked sixes. But like

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Speaker 3: seeing stuff like that, I think is really beneficial for me.

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Speaker 3: But I agree like that it can lead if you're

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Speaker 3: more of a casual better it can lead to some

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Speaker 3: of those overreactions you know when you're watching.

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Speaker 1: And I think specifically with that, like when we're talking

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Speaker 1: about blowout. It's not necessarily I'm certainly not sitting here

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Speaker 1: advocating don't watch the NFL, but when it comes to

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Speaker 1: those those extreme results, it's hard for that to not

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Speaker 1: skew your opinion of what it is you're watching.

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Speaker 3: A lot of people are going to look at get

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Speaker 3: team the wins by thirty and they're like, oh, this

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Speaker 3: team's a wagon, I'm betting them next week, or a

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Speaker 3: team that loses by thirty, then you're you watch them

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Speaker 3: look horrendous the entire game. You're naturally going to say,

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Speaker 3: why would I want to put my money on that

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Speaker 3: team after I just saw how poorly they look, which

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Speaker 3: is more difficult than just looking at a box score

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Speaker 3: and seeing like, oh, they lost by thirty. If you

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Speaker 3: actually watched it, it can be more difficult. But I

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Speaker 3: don't care. I mean, I've seen enough NFL and week

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Speaker 3: to week. I mean, like, look, we just saw Atlanta.

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Speaker 3: We just saw Michael Pennix go against the Panthers defense,

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Speaker 3: which is not great by any stretch spotifyve defense. He

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Speaker 3: looked like he never played football before.

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Speaker 1: He looked like that was the problem that was and

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Speaker 1: that that's the issue specifically that I'm pointing out as

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Speaker 1: I watched the guy that couldn't get the ball to

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Speaker 1: the twenty yard line.

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Speaker 3: But I've seen it enough. It's one week. Next week,

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Speaker 3: what did you go twenty and twenty five or three

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Speaker 3: twelve two touchdowns? That's that's just that's just the nature

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Speaker 3: of the NFL. Like the Chargers looked unstoppable lose at

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Speaker 3: the Giants, and there's there's countless examples of that happening.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I would agree with you that it can

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Speaker 3: lead into that overreaction if you're if you're watching, but uh,

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Speaker 3: you just got to keep in your keep in the

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Speaker 3: back of your head like it's a week to week league.

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Speaker 3: Don't overreact too much. So uh yeah, but that's I've

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Speaker 3: been doing it a long time, so I don't. I

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Speaker 3: don't really get too higher or too low on teams.

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Speaker 1: The Favorites is sponsored by DraftKings and in partnership with DraftKings,

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Speaker 1: So before we get to the sides, let's talk about

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Speaker 1: the main dish, the three top stories across the league,

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Speaker 1: moving lines Tyreek Hill on the shelf for a while

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Speaker 1: after dislocated me from last night. How does that change

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Speaker 1: your perception of the Miami Dolphins moving forward, if at all.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I thought he'll started to look okay the

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Speaker 3: past two weeks had a little bit more juice. This

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Speaker 3: team's bad, though, I mean, so you just lose one

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Speaker 3: more weapon, makes them easier to defend. You don't to

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Speaker 3: worry as much about the deep threat you really want to.

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Speaker 3: The Jets don't have the ideal defense schematically that you

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Speaker 3: want to use against the Dolphins. But they still, I mean,

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Speaker 3: they dominated that game. They were ne plus fifteen success right,

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Speaker 3: a fumble at the one lost turnover batt of three

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Speaker 3: nothing got crushed and like they should have won that game. Still,

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Speaker 3: the Dolphins are a bad team. I mean, like their

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Speaker 3: centers playing well. The rest of the offensive line is

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Speaker 3: a mess. Now you don't have Hill. Their defense is bad,

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Speaker 3: like they're anything in a lot of pressure, which is

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Speaker 3: supposed to be their strength. Their secondary is one of

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Speaker 3: the worst in the league. So this is a really

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Speaker 3: bad team. And it cut like it's unfortunate because I

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Speaker 3: thought you could have gotten something for Hill, right, I

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Speaker 3: thought that what the Dolphins should do this year is

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Speaker 3: just like fire sale. You gotta start this over and

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Speaker 3: so you're not going to get anything for Hill now.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I bet the Panthers this week. It's number one.

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Speaker 3: Short week off of a fraudulent win. Panthers all off

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Speaker 3: of a blowout loss, right trying to buy low on

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Speaker 3: Carolina Carolina kind of a fraudulent like it was that

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Speaker 3: was closer than the final score indicated like they got.

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Speaker 3: They they blew that game on special teams. I mean basically,

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Speaker 3: the Patriots scored two touchdowns on punt returns, they missed

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Speaker 3: a field the Pants missed a field goal, they missed

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Speaker 3: extra point. They were minus eighteen in special point special

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Speaker 3: teams points and over the first twenty minutes of that game.

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Speaker 3: So I think that Bryce Young should be comfortable here.

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Speaker 3: A lot of opportunities downfield, like this Dolphins defense is

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Speaker 3: really really bad. I mean, the Jets just put a

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Speaker 3: four hundred yards of offense, So I think Bryce Young

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Speaker 3: could do enough. The Panthers did have offensive line injuries,

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Speaker 3: but Kate Mazes looked good at center for they had

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Speaker 3: their guard who's pretty good is on ir They brought

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Speaker 3: in this practice squad player to start after Zabala, their

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Speaker 3: backup got hurt. I don't know why, but then they

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Speaker 3: put in Brady Christensen, who was their highest graded player

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Speaker 3: last week, so he looked good at guard. So, like

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Speaker 3: I'm not, their offensive line still looks solid and that's

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Speaker 3: why the strongest points. So like the Panthers offensive line

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Speaker 3: is world's apart. And then schematically the Panthers, they're going

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Speaker 3: to play a ton of zone, which is what you

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Speaker 3: need to do against this two offense, and he's really

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Speaker 3: struggling to see the field right now against zone defenses.

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Speaker 3: So I like the match up in the spot. I

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Speaker 3: played Carolina cheap minus one out there for this week,

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Speaker 3: and it's gonna be a long year for the Dolphins.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it feels like Carolina is the right side. I

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Speaker 1: do think that in some ways this can actually help

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins offense operate. Tua tends to want to forced

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Speaker 1: feed Tyreek Hill, and he's just not really that kind

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Speaker 1: of quarterback. He's got to get the ball out quick,

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Speaker 1: he's got to spread the ball around. I don't think

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Speaker 1: we should sleep on the impact that Darren Waller had

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Speaker 1: for this team in the red zone. I was kind

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Speaker 1: of surprised.

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Speaker 3: He actually really good.

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Speaker 1: The red zone stats for the Dolphins are awesome. The

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Speaker 1: Dolphins now ring second in terms of scoring percentage in

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Speaker 1: the red zone.

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Speaker 2: So I think the having Darren Waller helps.

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Speaker 1: That's a new thing for them. But Oli Gordon gives

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Speaker 1: them a little bit of toughness in between the tackles

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Speaker 1: that they haven't had in the last couple of years.

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Speaker 2: So I do think that.

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Speaker 1: They can operate like perhaps more of a ground and

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Speaker 1: pound just get the ball out quick in the screen

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Speaker 1: game type of team and not have to worry about all.

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Speaker 1: We got to get Tyreek Hill the ball deep down

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Speaker 1: the field so that we can satisfy our Devia wide receiver.

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Speaker 1: There could be a benefit to this. I'm not making

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Speaker 1: a case for betting the Dolphins this week. The Panthers

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Speaker 1: do feel like the right side, but I wouldn't be

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Speaker 1: surprised if the Dolphins offense continued to look similar to

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Speaker 1: what it looked like last night.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the problem. The problem is that you want to

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Speaker 3: become a ground and pound team. Their offensive liner now

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Speaker 3: is in rough shape. I mean, you got rookies on

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Speaker 3: the left side who aren't I mean, Paul is playing okay.

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Speaker 3: Their left guard is playing really poorly. Your right side

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Speaker 3: of your offensive line is kind of a mess. So like,

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Speaker 3: that's that's hard to do when your offensive line is

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Speaker 3: in rough shape. They have some injuries, so yeah, I imagine.

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Speaker 3: But also in a short week after losing Hill, that's

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Speaker 3: not ideal either, right, like one of your key cogs

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Speaker 3: and now you're on a short week heading on the road.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I'll be curious to see what McDaniel.

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Speaker 2: Like.

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Speaker 3: I think McDaniel is still solid. I don't like. I

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Speaker 3: think that he's kind of lost it as a head coach.

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Speaker 3: I like he seems checked out. I don't know, like

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Speaker 3: he's not as engaged as he once was. But I

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Speaker 3: think he would still be a very good offensive coordinator somewhere.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he definitely has lost a little bit of that humor.

408
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Speaker 1: He's just kind of leaning into the sad dork vibe.

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Speaker 1: Are you are you buying the renewed drama around Philly? Yes,

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Speaker 1: they won, Yes they covered, they're undefeated. But Aj Brown

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Speaker 1: another dismal stat line two catches seven yards doesn't seem

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Speaker 1: to be impacting what the Eagles want to do. But

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Speaker 1: passing wise, I mean, this team is bad. They are

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Speaker 1: there's no explosion in the offense. They were in dead

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Speaker 1: last and passing offense. That's behind the Tennessee Titans. I

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Speaker 1: mean they still score, But is this an issue for

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Speaker 1: you moving forward to you just simply throw it out.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I think the issue is the offensive coordinator. Like

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Speaker 3: it hasn't cost him yet, but I mean they should

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Speaker 3: have lost to the Rams. They got to play the

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Speaker 3: Bucks with all all the Bucks injuries, but they went

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Speaker 3: Hurts went oh eight for zero yards. The offense had

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Speaker 3: negative nine yards in the second half. Now granted that

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Speaker 3: that includes a thirty yard safety. Negative thirty yard safety

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Speaker 3: they took at the end of the game. Okay, let's

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Speaker 3: give them twenty yards for the second half, and then

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Speaker 3: against the Rams in the first half they had thirty

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Speaker 3: three yards. Yeah, I think the offensive coordinator, I think

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Speaker 3: is the issue. This is what I was worried about

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Speaker 3: coming into the year. Now it hasn't cost them yet, right,

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Speaker 3: you got to like, you got to play the Cowboys

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Speaker 3: and they're awful defense in week one. You know you

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Speaker 3: benefit you have that crazy comeback against the Rams, and

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Speaker 3: you know you got to play the Bucks with a

435
00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:42,400
Speaker 3: bunch of injuries. But they could have easily lost the game.

436
00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:45,200
Speaker 3: They've had a couple like special teams touchdowns. Now a

437
00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:46,800
Speaker 3: lot of people are gonna yell about the yards per

438
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:48,679
Speaker 3: play margin, like the Eagles are like one of the

439
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:51,280
Speaker 3: worst teams in the NFL that you can't look at

440
00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 3: the Eagles yards per play. They're kind of like a

441
00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:57,160
Speaker 3: service academy because like if they get to third and three,

442
00:20:57,440 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 3: like if they get to you know, one or two yards,

443
00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:02,600
Speaker 3: it's basically it's going to be a first down. Like,

444
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:05,240
Speaker 3: so that's basically a successful play, whereas it's not for

445
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 3: other teams. So their yards for play is a funky case.

446
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:14,560
Speaker 3: But I am concerned and look aj Brown, these guys

447
00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,359
Speaker 3: want to get the ball, like they're receivers, receivers, but

448
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 3: like these really good receivers by nature are like are

449
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,480
Speaker 3: kind of divas, and they want the ball. They want

450
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:26,399
Speaker 3: to be involved, Like they don't want to watch, you know,

451
00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:29,400
Speaker 3: just go out there and block the entire game. Watch

452
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:32,360
Speaker 3: a rugby you know, your your toush pushes all day.

453
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 3: So yeah, there's got to there. It looks like there's

454
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:38,720
Speaker 3: gonna be some growing frustration and we'll see it. Very

455
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 3: The Eagles are a very interesting team to like price

456
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:44,480
Speaker 3: and like way, it's it's very bizarre, so they'll get

457
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:48,240
Speaker 3: I will argue though, that I could argue that Lane

458
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 3: Johnson is their most important offensive player. I mean the

459
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:55,359
Speaker 3: numbers with him without him have been insane, and he

460
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,160
Speaker 3: was out in the second half. We'll see his status.

461
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,000
Speaker 3: His status this week is huge because you're going up

462
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:03,600
Speaker 3: against that Broncos front. The Broncos edge rushers have been

463
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:07,959
Speaker 3: menaces all all season and all of last year. So

464
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:10,360
Speaker 3: whether or not Lane Johnson plays this week, I haven't

465
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:12,720
Speaker 3: seen an update. We'll get it's only Tuesday. We'll get

466
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 3: updates on the practice reports tomorrow. But his status is huge.

467
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,160
Speaker 3: He's been super important. But yeah, I'm definitely worried about

468
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:25,360
Speaker 3: the Eagles offense and like, let's see their upcoming schedule

469
00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:29,399
Speaker 3: because the weird thing is I now say to myself, well,

470
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:30,879
Speaker 3: they just can't get behind. But the one time they

471
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 3: got behind, they were forced to throw they they did

472
00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:34,640
Speaker 3: move it and come back from eighteen downs.

473
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:37,399
Speaker 2: So they've won every which way already this season.

474
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 3: And the blocks are unsustainable, like they're not going to

475
00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 3: keep blocking field goals and punts for touchdowns. But their

476
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 3: upcoming schedules, you know, home against the Broncos at the Giants,

477
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 3: at the Vikings home against the Giants. So yeah, I

478
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:59,800
Speaker 3: mean they easily could be They could if they win

479
00:22:59,880 --> 00:23:01,879
Speaker 3: this week, they could get out to eight no. And

480
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,119
Speaker 3: we still might have questions like they could be eight no.

481
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:06,879
Speaker 3: This happened a couple of years ago though as well.

482
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 3: And you know this happens to the Steelers a lot.

483
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 3: Like you just have these teams that start eight to

484
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:15,879
Speaker 3: no that have underlying issues because the schedule and just

485
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 3: late game luck is broken. Right, So I don't know

486
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 3: what we should get a better answer this week, because

487
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 3: the the Broncos do have a really really good defense

488
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:28,680
Speaker 3: and uh so we'll see. But maybe Boonix just throws

489
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 3: the game away.

490
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:32,919
Speaker 2: But yeah, they're coming the coordinator.

491
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:34,680
Speaker 3: For me, it's a play calling, the scheming, and yeah

492
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 3: that it looks like there's some some trouble brewing, which

493
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:40,200
Speaker 3: is weird for a four and oh team, but that's

494
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 3: what happens with receivers when you don't get.

495
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 2: Them the ball.

496
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:45,880
Speaker 1: Bronco's coming off of a blowout win, short week for them.

497
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:48,239
Speaker 1: Those are kind of teams we look at and go,

498
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:50,120
Speaker 1: I don't know if we should back them.

499
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 2: Maybe blow down.

500
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, but I also can't. I can't back. I can't

501
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 3: play points of the Eagles right now exactly. It feels

502
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:59,679
Speaker 3: like ales and a half, like are they the new Chiefs?

503
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 3: There's gonna win all these weird close games. And it

504
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 3: does in different ways.

505
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 2: It does feel like look.

506
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 1: Pretty, which is why if you if you're catching over

507
00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 1: a field goal at plus four and a half with

508
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:13,239
Speaker 1: the Denver Broncos on DK, I think right now, if

509
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:14,919
Speaker 1: I had to bet the game, I'd be on Denver.

510
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 3: I agree, I agree, especially with Lane Johnson's status up

511
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:18,360
Speaker 3: in the air.

512
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 1: The Ravens got dusted by the Chiefs. Lamargo's out with

513
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 1: an injury. Now they're one in three. They are still

514
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,080
Speaker 1: minus three seventy to make the playoffs. I had to

515
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:28,440
Speaker 1: take a triple look at this. Where do you sit

516
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 1: on that? That just seems like an insane number for

517
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:34,240
Speaker 1: a team that could be without It looks like they're

518
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 1: gonna be without Lamar this week too. They could be

519
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:41,120
Speaker 1: one in four by next week and and you're still

520
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,919
Speaker 1: getting plus money on them to miss the playoffs.

521
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, one in four. I think all the teams that

522
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 3: have historically started one in four five for only five

523
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:53,879
Speaker 3: percent have made the playoffs. Now you have to remember

524
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:55,479
Speaker 3: a lot of teams that are one and four are

525
00:24:55,520 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 3: really bad teams. So and since twenty twenty one, like

526
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 3: the playoffs have expandits it was a little easier now,

527
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 3: like the Rams did it last year. And the Ravens

528
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:08,400
Speaker 3: do have a really good roster when healthy. The problem

529
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 3: is right now, if you look at their depth chart

530
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 3: in June, they're projected depth chart right now, twelve of

531
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 3: those starters are hurt. So I don't know who's gonna

532
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 3: play this week, but a couple of their defenders are out.

533
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 3: Matta Bouche is out for the year. He's enormous. I've

534
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:25,160
Speaker 3: talk about this all last week. He's an enormous piece

535
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 3: of the run defense. They're laid down pass rush. Kyle

536
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:31,879
Speaker 3: van Ney is sorely missed. But now you've got injuries

537
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:34,640
Speaker 3: to Rokwan Smith, Marlin Humphreyan. These are all Pro bowlers

538
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 3: that I'm listing. Ronnie Stanley got hurt last week. I mean,

539
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:42,159
Speaker 3: Wiggins the corner got hurt, Lamar got hurt. Ricard their

540
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 3: Pro Bowl full back been hurt. I mean, I just

541
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:47,120
Speaker 3: just goes on and on. The Rookies aren't playing well.

542
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 3: On defense, they're not ready to like fill in. The

543
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 3: whole defensive line is in shambles, like this looks this

544
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:56,359
Speaker 3: is like the worst d in the league and that

545
00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:00,919
Speaker 3: it's I don't know many defenses that would like everyone

546
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,880
Speaker 3: wants to crucify Zach Orr and Harball, like I don't

547
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:06,440
Speaker 3: know how many defenses can survive having like five or

548
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 3: six Pro bowlers out of like it's it's gonna look

549
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 3: ugly like I toold. Now, the offensive line is definitely

550
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 3: an issue as well, like the guards are not playing

551
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 3: well and it's impacted Lamar who doesn't look the same.

552
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 3: But they needed to get back to their offense with

553
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 3: like Ricard and likely where they can pose a lot

554
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 3: of matchup prompts. I'm not worried about the offense other

555
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 3: than the health the defense. I A'm worried about to

556
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,880
Speaker 3: the health. So yeah, I would not a million years

557
00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:33,640
Speaker 3: take them. Now. The good thing working for the Raids

558
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 3: is they could finish like eight and nine. They could

559
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:39,360
Speaker 3: finish like nine to eight and win the division because

560
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:43,400
Speaker 3: I mean, the Bengals look toast with Browning. The Browns

561
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:45,720
Speaker 3: are probably gonna start Gabriel this week. I mean they're

562
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 3: I mean they're not going anywhere, And are the Steelers

563
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 3: gonna like the Steelers A probably gonna go like eight,

564
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 3: nine to nine and eight. Well'll probably go nine and eight,

565
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 3: that's Tomlin. So if this, if the Ravens can get

566
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 3: to like nine and eight, because of their division, they're

567
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,160
Speaker 3: gonna have a shot to win the division without getting

568
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 3: to like eleven twelve. So that's working in the favorite.

569
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 3: The Burrow injury, the Browns mess, and I'm not sure

570
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 3: I fully bind it like the Steelers being a ten

571
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 3: plus win team yet so they could still win the division,

572
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 3: which is going to give them a little hope if

573
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 3: they can get healthy. But whatever that price is out

574
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 3: there to make the playoffs, I certainly would not get that.

575
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:21,479
Speaker 2: Is three seventy. You can't do it.

576
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,639
Speaker 1: But it does feel like the wild card option is

577
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 1: starting to fly out the window. The Houston line for

578
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:29,640
Speaker 1: this weekend opened at seven and a half. It's now

579
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:32,120
Speaker 1: down to three and a half. That indicates a strong

580
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 1: feeling in the market that Lamar Jackson is not going

581
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 1: to play in this game.

582
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:37,120
Speaker 2: The defense is.

583
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:40,320
Speaker 3: Kind of hedged a little bit. If I had a guess,

584
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:42,480
Speaker 3: like it's I.

585
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 1: Think he's worth about six six and a half, I

586
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 1: would think, and it's a four point difference.

587
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 3: I would argue seven. He's worth because number one, especially

588
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 3: one week like after getting hurt, because the offense is

589
00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:59,399
Speaker 3: going to look so like is there any is there

590
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 3: any bigger difference between quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Cooper Rush,

591
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 3: like on what they bring to the offense and how

592
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 3: you would design things.

593
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:12,200
Speaker 2: What's that it's a different sport.

594
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, completely different sports, So that he's worth seven, And

595
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 3: then this line doesn't also account for all the other

596
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 3: injuries for Baltimore. I think if he's ruled if Lamar

597
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,919
Speaker 3: Jackson's ruled out, I don't know. I think this would

598
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,600
Speaker 3: and depending on all the other Ravens injuries, but it

599
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 3: looks like they're going to be without a couple of guys,

600
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 3: I don't I just has to close under three, I think.

601
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 3: I don't know it. Those are harder to quantify the

602
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 3: non quarterback injuries. But if if if you told me

603
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 3: right now Lamar is out and I know about some

604
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 3: of the other injuries on the Ravens, I mean, I

605
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:49,959
Speaker 3: think I would take I would certainly take the Texans

606
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 3: plus three and a half.

607
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 1: A quick look at our ats standings report, the fade list,

608
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 1: the bet jail, which you know, maybe we're limiting who

609
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 1: goes to prison, but no more unbeatens. We've got six

610
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:07,719
Speaker 1: three and one teams against the spread out there Colts, Jags, Lions, Seahawks, Rams,

611
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 1: and Eagles. Thank you for all of your funding. Are

612
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 1: any of those ripe for a fade of the teams

613
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 1: I just mentioned Colts, Jags, Lions, Seahawks, Rams, and Eagles.

614
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 3: Um Colts. I was impressed with the Colts last week.

615
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 3: They got a bit unlucky. They were a snake pit Jags.

616
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 3: I love the Jags. I think the Jags still could

617
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,560
Speaker 3: be undervalued. I bet the Jags on Monday number one.

618
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 3: Their special teams are really good. That's noteworthy. Their offense schematically,

619
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 3: their offensive defense are so much better. I love King Cohen.

620
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 3: Liam Cohen is a beast. Him going after Salah for

621
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 3: said keep my name out of your mouth because he

622
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 3: was accusing him of stealing signs. Although he said they

623
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 3: were like doing it in a legal way.

624
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 2: You don't say that.

625
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 3: I know I'm saying these lords sons. You didn't call

626
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 3: him like a liar, but you still don't say that.

627
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 3: So yeah, but it wasn't as bad as like hey

628
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 3: or a cheater. He was trying to get him a compliment.

629
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 3: But yeah, that's not how you do it. So no,

630
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 3: I'm not looking to fait the Jags.

631
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 1: Who else that would be the Colts, Jags, Lions are interesting,

632
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 1: but they have the Bengals, Seahawks, Rams, Eagles. Eagles might

633
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 1: be at the top of the list.

634
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, Eagles for sure, and the Lions possibly coming up here.

635
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 3: Like because you have to remember they over the last

636
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 3: three weeks. Remember they remember they got they couldn't score

637
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 3: on Green Bay now was week one. But they then

638
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 3: they got the Bears, who at the time had their

639
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 3: entire defense was out right like it was a disaster,

640
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 3: and they haven't They weren't able to adjust like they

641
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 3: were playing with backup corners, backup linebackers. It was a disaster.

642
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:01,320
Speaker 3: And going to Detroit playing them indoors. Then they got

643
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 3: the Ravens, and I talked about before this game with

644
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:09,719
Speaker 3: the Ravens defense is in shambles, right, like it's horrific. Now,

645
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 3: they had a great game plan for it was the

646
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 3: best I've seen in containing Lamar Jackson. Right, it's not

647
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 3: a scene that gets a ton of pressure, but how

648
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:20,239
Speaker 3: they approached him scrambling it was awesome. But they got

649
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 3: to play the Ravens defense, which was and then they

650
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 3: played the Browns and like the Browns if that game

651
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 3: was closer than the final score. I mean, the Browns

652
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:31,480
Speaker 3: had three turnovers, was basically a pick six. And so

653
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 3: they've benefited from like a nice little stretch here of

654
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 3: getting some breaks that might be a little under the radar,

655
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 3: like the Ravens defensive injuries, the Bears defensive injuries, right,

656
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 3: the Browns being inft on offense. Now they have the Bengals,

657
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 3: They're at the Bengals. It's a it's a good spot

658
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 3: for the Bengals. Like, I know, it's short week, but

659
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:54,720
Speaker 3: the Lions have the Chiefs on deck. Do the Do

660
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 3: the Bengals care? That's what I have to figure out,

661
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:00,160
Speaker 3: Like because this is probably as low as you're going

662
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 3: to get on the Bengals. You just saw him get

663
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 3: blown out two weeks in a row. You saw Jake

664
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 3: Browning look horrendous. But they played Flores and the Broncos defense.

665
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:11,200
Speaker 3: The Lions have a bunch of injuries in their secondary,

666
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 3: which I have to look into. Do they care? Like

667
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 3: I gotta try to get the vibes in that team,

668
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 3: because the vibes were so bad after they went down

669
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 3: and if they go down again, because the Lions still

670
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 3: should be able to score. Like the Bengals defense is atrocious,

671
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 3: but Lion lines are probably up their lines and Eagles.

672
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 3: For me, I would say.

673
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 1: Dan Campbell and Jared Goff are just impossible to fade.

674
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:35,719
Speaker 1: These guys As a combo, they cover the spread at

675
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:38,080
Speaker 1: a rate of like seventy three per Right.

676
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 3: Now we're ten and a half, Like they were just

677
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 3: favored by ten at home against the Browns.

678
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 2: I just don't.

679
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 1: I mean, I've been caught in this, so I'm not

680
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 1: going to argue with you about it because I've been

681
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 1: taking a beating on this.

682
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 2: But to me, this feels like such a pass.

683
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 3: Like you can't like ten and a half with De

684
00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:58,800
Speaker 3: Troit and Sinsey. That's outrageous.

685
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 2: It's outdoor golf. This should be a Bengals bet for you.

686
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 3: This is very most likely will be Like I'm ninety

687
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 3: percent sure I'm gonna be on the Bengals and it's

688
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 3: gonna hurt.

689
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 1: I don't really want to spend much time talking about

690
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 1: the bad teams, but are we good with forget about jail?

691
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 1: Can we just throw the Titans in solitary confinement? At

692
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 1: this point, they're eight and a half point underdogs against

693
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:22,440
Speaker 1: the Cardinals.

694
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 2: How in the world do you bet either of these teams?

695
00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 1: The Cardinals should not be eight and a half point

696
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 1: favorites against almost anybody, But.

697
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 3: The Titans will take money to that this morning.

698
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 2: Like, who's who's doing that?

699
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 3: Now? There is a price. There's a price for every

700
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:43,480
Speaker 3: like every.

701
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 2: Team for me, all right, what's your Titans price?

702
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 4: Now?

703
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 3: They think like the Arizona should be able to run

704
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 3: the ball this week, and then eventually the dam is

705
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 3: gonna break. That's what happens with the Titans now too,

706
00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 3: like with Sweat on ir their defense eventually, because it

707
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 3: was six nothing in the fourth and they lost twenty

708
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 3: six to nothing. Their defense because their offense gives are

709
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 3: no help, and then their defense finally wears down and

710
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:09,839
Speaker 3: then it's Simmons just can't make any plays anymore. It's

711
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 3: getting triple team the entire game, and then like what

712
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 3: else you got? Basically there's like a one man team.

713
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 3: It's like Jeffrey Simmons, he should get they should trade him,

714
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:20,879
Speaker 3: like get let him go be on a winner. It's

715
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 3: sad my price, man, I mean, my my numbers say

716
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 3: I should bet him if it's ten.

717
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:35,360
Speaker 1: But I have the Cardinals as nine point favorites in

718
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:39,400
Speaker 1: this game, so I'm pretty much on on market here Cardinals.

719
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:43,279
Speaker 3: I think I did fourteen to be like, okay, I'm

720
00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:44,280
Speaker 3: one betting.

721
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 2: This is barely a teaser spot for you, tee.

722
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 3: I think the Cardinals are a good teaser spot if

723
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 3: you can have cheap teasers, Like if you wanted to

724
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 3: go to Cardinals and let's say Cardinals.

725
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 1: Would you buy the right now in case Lamar doesn't play,

726
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:03,760
Speaker 1: then you'd get them at nine and a half.

727
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 3: No, I think the time to do that open at

728
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 3: seven and a half, Like that was the time to

729
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 3: buy the Texas without much downside risk. I don't know

730
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:17,280
Speaker 3: one in three if Lamar has a chance, he's gonna play,

731
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:19,480
Speaker 3: So I don't know. At three and a half, it's

732
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 3: not worth it to me. But yeah, a good teaser

733
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:29,040
Speaker 3: would be I mean, look, it's not across a three

734
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:33,799
Speaker 3: and seven, but the Browns like who the points in

735
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 3: that game, the London game, points in that game are

736
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 3: going to be That game could end three nothing. The Vikings.

737
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:45,839
Speaker 3: So I think the Browns might start Gabriel on a

738
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:49,640
Speaker 3: short on an international travel week, going to the rookie.

739
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:52,800
Speaker 3: You're already out of like they're running out of receivers.

740
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:57,480
Speaker 3: Tilman's hurt, Carter's hurt. I think they're going to start

741
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 3: thrash and Isaiah Bond would with Judy their tackles. They

742
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:03,880
Speaker 3: just had a trade for Cam Robinson, and I think

743
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 3: he's gonna start. Conklin maybe he'll be back at right tackle,

744
00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:09,919
Speaker 3: but he has a right elbow injury, Like he can't

745
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 3: really play right tackle unless you were like one hundred

746
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:14,320
Speaker 3: percent with your right elbow. So you're gonna might have

747
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 3: a rookie quarterback, like a messy tackle situation, new receivers,

748
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 3: new tackles, like in an international travel week against the

749
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 3: Flores defense. And then on the other side the Vikings,

750
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:30,120
Speaker 3: Brian O'Neill is out the right tackle stud there's Ryan Kelly,

751
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:33,399
Speaker 3: their center had another concussion and he's probably out. Their

752
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:36,480
Speaker 3: left guard I think had risk surgery. Jackson the rookie

753
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 3: looks who's looked really good. Their offensive line is in shambles.

754
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 3: How are you gonna bock the Browns? So what I

755
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 3: think is gonna happen here. If you start a rookie,

756
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 3: you're just gonna like you just hand it off like

757
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:48,520
Speaker 3: you run the ball thirty times. Because the Vikings run

758
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:50,319
Speaker 3: dy has not been great, like even the Steelers round

759
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 3: on them. So you just run it here with Judkins,

760
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:54,879
Speaker 3: a bunch who's been good against stack boxes so far.

761
00:36:55,440 --> 00:37:01,320
Speaker 3: Punt run, punt, wait for Garrett to strip Wentz Wentz

762
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 3: or McCarthy whoever's back there. Wait for basically the Giants

763
00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:07,719
Speaker 3: game plan of last week. Starting a rookie quarterback, run

764
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:11,719
Speaker 3: run against the backup offensive line, wait for your defensive

765
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:14,880
Speaker 3: line to force turnovers, and that's how they could win.

766
00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 3: But this total is down to thirty six and a half,

767
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 3: so we're going ahead to head here because I know

768
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 3: you're on Minnesota. I get the spot like it's a

769
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:24,920
Speaker 3: good spot play, but I had to take the points

770
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:27,800
Speaker 3: because I mean the total thirty six and a half,

771
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:29,359
Speaker 3: four and a half points of this game are gonna

772
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 3: feel like ten. Like you know how hard it is

773
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 3: for any of these season is score four points and

774
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 3: you're gonna be watching this game and be like.

775
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 1: This might be on the this might be on the

776
00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:40,560
Speaker 1: don't watch list, but you mentioned it right there. Play

777
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 1: it in the flag on the Minnesota Vikings three and

778
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 1: a half if you can get it four and a

779
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 1: half on DraftKings. I bought it the second it opened.

780
00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:52,239
Speaker 1: We had this one circle of the week ago. I'm undeterred.

781
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 1: I get it with the numbers. Believe me, I would

782
00:37:56,719 --> 00:38:00,400
Speaker 1: love if this was shorter. The Vikings stay overseas, Browns

783
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:03,400
Speaker 1: fly in back to back battles with NFC North competition,

784
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 1: massive edge on the Vikings. I do worry about the

785
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:09,360
Speaker 1: offensive line issues for Minnesota. I think that's why this

786
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:11,319
Speaker 1: line is creeping the way that it is. It looks

787
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:13,880
Speaker 1: like the Browns have taken money early, but the Vikings

788
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:17,480
Speaker 1: should be able to match defensive excellence in this game.

789
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 1: Minnesota is number one in terms of EPA per play

790
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 1: on defense, the Browns ring third or worst in terms

791
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:28,920
Speaker 1: of pass blocking. This is Brian Flores blitz happy dream matchup.

792
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 1: And when you layer in the travel advantage, and when

793
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:33,400
Speaker 1: we spotted this one a week ago for a reason,

794
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 1: I'm not going to look away from it.

795
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 2: I'm on the Vikings.

796
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:38,440
Speaker 3: Well, we can do a head to head that here again.

797
00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 3: Well this has.

798
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:42,920
Speaker 2: Gone so well for me. I'm so excited.

799
00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:47,839
Speaker 3: Well, if Kendrick come up with it a wager on Thursday, Yeah,

800
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:50,000
Speaker 3: I just had to take the points. If you're Stefanski

801
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:52,879
Speaker 3: and at least Gabriel can move around a little bit,

802
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:55,560
Speaker 3: you know, boot him out. But you just run the

803
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 3: ball here, like you don't even let you just run

804
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 3: it and punt it. Play so conservatively. Now, obviously, if

805
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:01,880
Speaker 3: you get into a game state where you have to

806
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:04,839
Speaker 3: you have to, and then it probably won't go well

807
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 3: because the receivers can't get separation, they can't pass block,

808
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:08,360
Speaker 3: and then they're going to be going up against the

809
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 3: Flora's blitz. But you can run on this Minnesota defense,

810
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:16,360
Speaker 3: and I just don't know a Minnesota is gonna block Cleveland.

811
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:17,239
Speaker 2: Like.

812
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:20,320
Speaker 3: This game is probably gonna come down to whoever makes

813
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:25,839
Speaker 3: the mistake first. And there's a good chance that it's

814
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:28,640
Speaker 3: Miles Garrett and that d line that can force that

815
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:31,360
Speaker 3: first mistake, because you don't want either if either of

816
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 3: these teams have to play from behind in this game,

817
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:37,919
Speaker 3: it's it's lights out. So I took the points. Well, well,

818
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:40,799
Speaker 3: we'll come up with make sure you get the four

819
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:43,440
Speaker 3: and a half out there at DraftKings. Every point in

820
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 3: this game is big, so we'll get Kendrick to come

821
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:48,480
Speaker 3: up with a bet. But I am on the Browns.

822
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 3: I'll plant my flag on Let's go. Let's see at DraftKings.

823
00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:57,120
Speaker 3: I do like the Panthers, I do like the Saints.

824
00:39:57,840 --> 00:39:58,960
Speaker 2: I'm with you on the Saints.

825
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:01,720
Speaker 3: That all right, I'll plan my flag on the Saints.

826
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:06,879
Speaker 3: The Saints are not playing terribly Like they played toe

827
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:09,359
Speaker 3: to toe with the Bills. A couple of plays here

828
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:11,239
Speaker 3: and there they actually could out a real shot to

829
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:12,680
Speaker 3: win that game. They were toe to toe with the

830
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:14,800
Speaker 3: Cardinals to tote with the forty nine ers. The Seals

831
00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:16,400
Speaker 3: king got out of hand because the special teams. But

832
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:18,640
Speaker 3: like from a success right down to down basis, they

833
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 3: were pretty close. They should be able to run the

834
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:25,440
Speaker 3: ball here. The Giants like, look, I was impressed last week,

835
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 3: but there's there's They basically benefited from the charters offensive

836
00:40:28,680 --> 00:40:31,200
Speaker 3: line injuries. Two turnovers have led to two touchdowns. I

837
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:33,640
Speaker 3: mean Dart threw for one hundred yards. It was better

838
00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 3: than Russell Wilson. But now they have on tape what

839
00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:38,840
Speaker 3: some of the stuff that they want to do with

840
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:41,160
Speaker 3: Dart going on the road here after a big win,

841
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:44,880
Speaker 3: Saints trumph searching for their first win. Rattlers looked pretty good.

842
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:46,200
Speaker 3: I think they'll be able to run the ball here.

843
00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 3: The Saints still have some pretty good weapons and their

844
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 3: run defense I think can hold up, and especially without

845
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:55,840
Speaker 3: the threat of Neighbors on the outside, that's going to

846
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:59,480
Speaker 3: make things easier. So I'll plan my flag on the

847
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 3: Saints minus one, minus one and a half out there.

848
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:04,840
Speaker 3: I think they get the victory at.

849
00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:07,880
Speaker 1: Home, and the Giants were already in a good position

850
00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:10,360
Speaker 1: when Neighbors went down with the injury. It's a completely

851
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:12,759
Speaker 1: different story when you already feel good about where you're

852
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 1: at in the game and you lose a star player.

853
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:19,279
Speaker 1: Compared to starting a new week without the threat of

854
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:21,719
Speaker 1: that player, yep, and I think that we really see

855
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:24,640
Speaker 1: the impact of that now for the main event, no

856
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:26,880
Speaker 1: betting week can start without it. It is the primer

857
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 1: courtesy of Evan Abrams Evan the Voice of God.

858
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 2: Welcome to the show.

859
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:34,160
Speaker 1: What are the trends we need to be aware of

860
00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 1: before we fire away on the apps?

861
00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 4: Yeah?

862
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:39,279
Speaker 5: I kind of like this Tuesday, I'm the Voice of God,

863
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 5: and then Thursday I kind of swoop in with whatever

864
00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 5: I have left and make decisions for you.

865
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:45,160
Speaker 4: Guys, So either way it works for me.

866
00:41:45,560 --> 00:41:48,239
Speaker 5: I feel like I've been laughing on the sidelines here

867
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 5: because I just tweeted this and Stuck He's been all

868
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:53,800
Speaker 5: over Carolina and I completely understand it. So Miami was

869
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 5: minus one and a half last night during the game,

870
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 5: the Tyreek injury happens, and about an hour or so

871
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:01,360
Speaker 5: later it flips the Carolina last more and a half.

872
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:04,960
Speaker 5: So the Panthers haven't won or one or covered a

873
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 5: game they were favored in since September of twenty twenty one,

874
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:12,320
Speaker 5: four full years. They've lost ten straight as a favorite

875
00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:16,839
Speaker 5: in that spot. That is the longest losing streak as

876
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:19,760
Speaker 5: a favorite since the nineteen seventy merger for any team.

877
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 5: Right now, Yeah, they are completely and utterly do I mean, honestly,

878
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 5: I think I like this side. This is such a

879
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:29,959
Speaker 5: fun week in the sense that Stucky myself, other people

880
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:32,799
Speaker 5: are going to be considering the Panthers and Saints as

881
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:35,560
Speaker 5: maybe the better sides this slate is considering.

882
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:36,799
Speaker 3: Just I already have money down.

883
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:39,279
Speaker 5: I know, I know, I know, but I'm saying I'm

884
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 5: going that direction. Let me keep rolling here because I

885
00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 5: just have a few closing favorites to six points are

886
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:48,400
Speaker 5: more sixteen to two and one straight up this season

887
00:42:48,640 --> 00:42:52,759
Speaker 5: fewest outright losses for favorites that large through four games

888
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:56,319
Speaker 5: since nineteen seventy nine, So after the start with four

889
00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:58,840
Speaker 5: post point faves, still kind of seeing it on.

890
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:01,399
Speaker 4: Obviously Green Bay Dall is the tie there.

891
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:06,719
Speaker 5: And then to me, Detroit and Tennessee what Detroit's doing

892
00:43:06,719 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 5: on the cover side fifty to twenty one and one

893
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:14,359
Speaker 5: seventy percent since twenty twenty one, basically going to set

894
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:16,960
Speaker 5: the record there for a five year span, and I

895
00:43:16,960 --> 00:43:19,319
Speaker 5: have it in my article, but from a fifty game

896
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 5: stretch ridiculous as well, best since the Vikings in sixteen

897
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:27,279
Speaker 5: seventeen and then Tennessee three and eighteen ATS as you

898
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:31,080
Speaker 5: guys mentioned, but even last twenty five for twenty and

899
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:33,759
Speaker 5: one ATS, which would be the worst mark over a

900
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:38,080
Speaker 5: twenty five game span since at least nineteen ninety. I

901
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:41,799
Speaker 5: think the fun one is overseas, so that game and

902
00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 5: when I say fun it's a relative term because total

903
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:46,320
Speaker 5: down to thirty six and a half, which would be

904
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:49,560
Speaker 5: the lowest of the fifty one international games for the

905
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:52,239
Speaker 5: regular season we have sent overseas, So this might be

906
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:56,520
Speaker 5: the absolute worst performance those fans have seen, but a

907
00:43:56,520 --> 00:43:58,680
Speaker 5: lot of fun stuff in the article this week. Sometimes

908
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:01,480
Speaker 5: there isn't a lot this there's a lot.

909
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 2: Is there anything on the Ravens without Lamar?

910
00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:09,319
Speaker 4: If it goes on that way, I do, hold on,

911
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:10,759
Speaker 4: let me pull that up.

912
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 5: So what I found with Lamar is simply what everyone

913
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:17,760
Speaker 5: kind of knows. Since twenty nineteen, five qbs have started

914
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:21,720
Speaker 5: a game for Baltimore Lamar RG three, Anthony Brown, Josh Johnson,

915
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 5: Tyler Huntley. In the fourteen games without Lamar, they're four

916
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 5: and ten straight up, but nine and five ats. I

917
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:32,000
Speaker 5: think the more important part is just the numbers in themselves.

918
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:37,799
Speaker 5: Points per game twenty eight with Lamar, sixteen without, So

919
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:39,319
Speaker 5: I think that's exactly.

920
00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:41,480
Speaker 4: What you're getting in this matchup. If he's not there, and.

921
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:44,760
Speaker 5: I think stuck, He's right, you're middling that line right now.

922
00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:46,279
Speaker 4: I think they're just playing the middle game.

923
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:48,600
Speaker 5: They don't know, so they're between seven and a half

924
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:50,720
Speaker 5: and what do you think stuck without Lamar?

925
00:44:50,800 --> 00:44:52,600
Speaker 4: What does that line end up at? Well?

926
00:44:52,640 --> 00:44:56,239
Speaker 3: See, I think without with Lamar, this spread would have

927
00:44:56,239 --> 00:44:58,720
Speaker 3: been like nine and a half ten, which the Raven's

928
00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:02,480
Speaker 3: fully healthy, but they're not like all of the other injuries.

929
00:45:03,040 --> 00:45:05,280
Speaker 3: I think I probably would have made this line around

930
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:09,480
Speaker 3: seven and seven and a half if Lamar was playing.

931
00:45:10,640 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 3: Without Lamar, I think it's like a touchdown drop, So

932
00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:19,399
Speaker 3: honestly I would make this, I don't know, Ravens minus one.

933
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:21,240
Speaker 4: The funny.

934
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:25,200
Speaker 5: The funny thing is is Lamar against the Texans absolutely

935
00:45:25,239 --> 00:45:28,799
Speaker 5: crushed them in his career. So like the matchup itself,

936
00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:34,000
Speaker 5: just looking holistically historically is great for Baltimore, means absolutely nothing.

937
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 5: Now with the defense being hobbled, he's hobbled, like the

938
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:40,520
Speaker 5: matchup completely different. So yeah, I think in a normal

939
00:45:40,600 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 5: situation like preseason, this spread would have been like eight and.

940
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:46,879
Speaker 4: A half nine, so kind of fascinating.

941
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:50,680
Speaker 5: But Baltimore obviously in a really really tough situation.

942
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:52,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, and those the cluster d injuries are they're hard

943
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:55,560
Speaker 3: to price, but like it's those a time you got

944
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:57,279
Speaker 3: like four or five Pro bowlers that are hurt. Their

945
00:45:57,320 --> 00:46:00,239
Speaker 3: defensive line is in shambles, so like it's a couple

946
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:02,000
Speaker 3: of points, I think.

947
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:04,479
Speaker 1: So the bet, it's the bet before the bet, because

948
00:46:04,520 --> 00:46:07,279
Speaker 1: if you think if you bet the Texans right now

949
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:10,360
Speaker 1: at three and a half and there is no Lamar,

950
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 1: that's incredible value and that's the decision that you're gonna

951
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:14,000
Speaker 1: have to make.

952
00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:15,840
Speaker 3: But if you bet that Texas and there is a Lamar,

953
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 3: you're then your your shit out of luck. So I

954
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:20,200
Speaker 3: think the time to do that was when it was

955
00:46:20,239 --> 00:46:21,480
Speaker 3: at plus seven and a half. I think it was

956
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 3: at plus seven a half some shops. I had someone

957
00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 3: tweet me and I said, yeah, you should take this

958
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:26,839
Speaker 3: because there's no not much downside risk. I don't think

959
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 3: it's going to be ten.

960
00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:29,719
Speaker 5: I mean yesterday, yesterday at noon it was still six

961
00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:32,520
Speaker 5: and a half, Like you could have made decisions to

962
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:34,399
Speaker 5: try to get in at a price and come back.

963
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:36,480
Speaker 5: I think at three and a half it's it's a

964
00:46:36,520 --> 00:46:38,799
Speaker 5: little bit of a wait and see ie to a.

965
00:46:38,800 --> 00:46:41,520
Speaker 3: Total pass, I think for me and that the total

966
00:46:41,560 --> 00:46:45,239
Speaker 3: the Browns Vikings total at thirty five and thirty six

967
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:48,600
Speaker 3: and a half in a that we're getting to like

968
00:46:49,280 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 3: Brown like Cleveland home game with when it's like crazy

969
00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:56,840
Speaker 3: weather with all the winds off the lake type territory

970
00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:59,400
Speaker 3: with like that, that's a crazy low total. But like

971
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:02,160
Speaker 3: I said on solo pod, like at thirty seven and

972
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:06,280
Speaker 3: a half, I would I could only look under uh

973
00:47:06,320 --> 00:47:09,800
Speaker 3: for sure. So yeah, good stuff, Evan, and and I

974
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:16,640
Speaker 3: think the Panthers Lions point is worth noting. And I

975
00:47:16,680 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 3: think what is the biggest takeaway there, It's the coaching.

976
00:47:21,719 --> 00:47:24,360
Speaker 3: I think that's what, like the market hasn't really fully

977
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:29,919
Speaker 3: captured how bad Callahan is and how great Campbell has been,

978
00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:34,399
Speaker 3: being so aggressive on all of these fourth downs and

979
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:37,719
Speaker 3: making all of these like plus ev decisions and just

980
00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:40,279
Speaker 3: they have an identity in that aspect, but they're they're

981
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:44,160
Speaker 3: constantly being aggressive going on fourth downs, getting it, building margin,

982
00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:47,359
Speaker 3: keeping their foot on the gas. I think like that's

983
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:51,600
Speaker 3: one of the primary drivers of those wide splits, is

984
00:47:51,600 --> 00:47:54,719
Speaker 3: it's like Callahan versus Campbell and how bad one has

985
00:47:54,760 --> 00:47:56,319
Speaker 3: been and how great the other has been.

986
00:47:57,280 --> 00:47:59,279
Speaker 1: Imagine if you were just wise enough to just bet

987
00:47:59,320 --> 00:48:01,480
Speaker 1: the Lions every week and fade the Titans every week,

988
00:48:01,520 --> 00:48:02,360
Speaker 1: why don't we even.

989
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:04,560
Speaker 2: Have podcasts the folks that will do it for us?

990
00:48:04,640 --> 00:48:07,479
Speaker 1: On today's episode special thanks to our producers David Paine

991
00:48:07,520 --> 00:48:08,280
Speaker 1: and Gifford Gould.

992
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:10,320
Speaker 2: Thank you Evan for the stats.

993
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:12,640
Speaker 1: Make sure you go and check out the primer over

994
00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:15,840
Speaker 1: at actionnetwork dot com. The Favorites will return on Thursday.

995
00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:18,279
Speaker 1: Kendro will be back with us as well. Make sure

996
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:21,479
Speaker 1: you follow us on the Action Network YouTube page Week

997
00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:24,279
Speaker 1: five best Bets on Thursday. We'll see you right here

998
00:48:24,320 --> 00:48:27,560
Speaker 1: on the Favorites presented by Draft Gings. Let's catch these tickets.

999
00:48:27,760 --> 00:48:41,200
Speaker 2: Like, Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you

1000
00:48:41,440 --> 00:48:44,200
Speaker 2: or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help

1001
00:48:44,280 --> 00:48:47,000
Speaker 2: is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred

1002
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:47,480
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