WEBVTT -  Are Markets Just Plain Wrong to Keep 'Looking Through' The Iran War?

0:00:00.280 --> 0:00:07.200
<v Speaker 1>M Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

0:00:18.320 --> 0:00:20.079
<v Speaker 2>Welcome to the Marrion Talks Money Market Rap.

0:00:20.200 --> 0:00:21.960
<v Speaker 1>We were talking about the biggest weeks on the market

0:00:21.960 --> 0:00:23.720
<v Speaker 1>this week and what is driving them.

0:00:23.840 --> 0:00:26.439
<v Speaker 2>I am marrion' dunset, web editor at largely Bloompogy.

0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:30.280
<v Speaker 3>Go well, and I'm joined Stowic senior reporter and author

0:00:30.320 --> 0:00:32.760
<v Speaker 3>of the award winning money Distilled News Later.

0:00:33.640 --> 0:00:39.239
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, don't you You've got to say, and I'm just saying, right,

0:00:39.280 --> 0:00:40.200
<v Speaker 2>how long ago is that award?

0:00:40.320 --> 0:00:44.159
<v Speaker 3>Edge cool Movie's a couple of years now. Yeah, for

0:00:44.200 --> 0:00:45.040
<v Speaker 3>some more, I.

0:00:44.960 --> 0:00:46.960
<v Speaker 1>Think we should enter for some wards. I do know

0:00:46.960 --> 0:00:49.280
<v Speaker 1>what entering for awards is really boring?

0:00:49.320 --> 0:00:49.720
<v Speaker 2>Admin?

0:00:50.000 --> 0:00:51.920
<v Speaker 1>If anyone knows of any wards that we can be

0:00:52.080 --> 0:00:54.960
<v Speaker 1>entered for without having to do any admin at all,

0:00:55.000 --> 0:00:57.200
<v Speaker 1>and it will probably win deeply to let us know,

0:00:57.280 --> 0:00:58.280
<v Speaker 1>because that's a lot easier.

0:00:58.360 --> 0:01:01.560
<v Speaker 3>Maybe they could get EI to do it. Ei to

0:01:01.640 --> 0:01:03.200
<v Speaker 3>do it. I was like, meant to be good for

0:01:03.400 --> 0:01:05.600
<v Speaker 3>boarding paperwork, but.

0:01:05.680 --> 0:01:08.959
<v Speaker 2>Also makes mistakes, make mistakes. What have it entered us into?

0:01:09.080 --> 0:01:12.479
<v Speaker 1>I don't know, sports podcast complication or something like that.

0:01:14.920 --> 0:01:15.440
<v Speaker 3>If we win.

0:01:17.959 --> 0:01:21.640
<v Speaker 1>One of those competitions, are only people with the correct ideology.

0:01:21.040 --> 0:01:23.480
<v Speaker 3>When that's going on.

0:01:23.800 --> 0:01:25.440
<v Speaker 2>We don't want any of this anyway.

0:01:25.800 --> 0:01:28.600
<v Speaker 1>I wanted to move straight from that onto things people

0:01:28.600 --> 0:01:35.760
<v Speaker 1>don't deservetles, brutal markets.

0:01:35.760 --> 0:01:36.640
<v Speaker 2>So here we are.

0:01:37.800 --> 0:01:41.160
<v Speaker 1>There's a lot going on. The world is changing very dramatically.

0:01:41.440 --> 0:01:45.319
<v Speaker 1>Geopolitics is absolutely nuts. We've talked over and over and

0:01:45.360 --> 0:01:48.600
<v Speaker 1>over about how the world has changed as it is

0:01:49.160 --> 0:01:51.800
<v Speaker 1>material stuff, not ethereal stuff that matters.

0:01:51.840 --> 0:01:53.360
<v Speaker 2>All these things we've talked about over and over.

0:01:53.400 --> 0:01:56.120
<v Speaker 1>We can look around us, we can see the geopolitical conflict,

0:01:56.160 --> 0:01:58.720
<v Speaker 1>we can see the risks of further geopolitical conflict. Very

0:01:58.720 --> 0:02:01.160
<v Speaker 1>good podcast coming out on the on Monday, by the way,

0:02:01.240 --> 0:02:03.360
<v Speaker 1>do you watch out for it. And even though all

0:02:03.360 --> 0:02:08.320
<v Speaker 1>these things are happening around US, erratic leaders, bizarrely lefty leaders,

0:02:08.639 --> 0:02:11.079
<v Speaker 1>all these things, markets are.

0:02:10.919 --> 0:02:11.560
<v Speaker 2>At new hives.

0:02:13.320 --> 0:02:14.960
<v Speaker 3>Sure, so the S and.

0:02:15.040 --> 0:02:19.519
<v Speaker 1>Pes keeps going up back where it was the Japanese

0:02:19.600 --> 0:02:21.040
<v Speaker 1>market is that you know.

0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:27.360
<v Speaker 2>This year, John, help me out here. It's going on.

0:02:27.440 --> 0:02:30.560
<v Speaker 2>Can we really can we really look through all this?

0:02:31.360 --> 0:02:32.560
<v Speaker 2>We can look through.

0:02:32.360 --> 0:02:35.680
<v Speaker 1>An energy crisis, we can look through in actual war

0:02:36.120 --> 0:02:39.120
<v Speaker 1>and say it's okay, now that's really mad.

0:02:39.160 --> 0:02:39.359
<v Speaker 2>He is.

0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:44.280
<v Speaker 1>Let's think instead about earnings forecasts for individual companies.

0:02:44.639 --> 0:02:48.560
<v Speaker 3>Said, I just don't think so, and I don't like

0:02:49.000 --> 0:02:53.720
<v Speaker 3>saying that because I hate seeing the market is wrong

0:02:54.040 --> 0:02:55.560
<v Speaker 3>exactly because.

0:02:56.400 --> 0:02:59.320
<v Speaker 2>The market is wrong. It's so arrogant and it's so

0:02:59.480 --> 0:03:00.320
<v Speaker 2>ridiculous happen.

0:03:00.400 --> 0:03:01.880
<v Speaker 1>You know, when a market is wrong, where a market

0:03:01.960 --> 0:03:04.640
<v Speaker 1>is right, the market is a whole maybe picking up

0:03:04.639 --> 0:03:07.720
<v Speaker 1>thing that you and I don't understand, maybe ridiculously pessimistic.

0:03:07.720 --> 0:03:10.280
<v Speaker 2>We maybe do cinnicle, We may not understand something. They

0:03:10.280 --> 0:03:16.080
<v Speaker 2>would say, the market is wrong, the crowd is wrong, right, embarrassing.

0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:18.840
<v Speaker 3>Not all I've learned plenty of times in the past

0:03:18.880 --> 0:03:21.040
<v Speaker 3>that you know, yeah, if you think the market is wrong,

0:03:21.080 --> 0:03:24.520
<v Speaker 3>it is probably not. The market is probably you. And also,

0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:30.040
<v Speaker 3>you know, geopolitics famously doesn't affect markets that much for

0:03:30.280 --> 0:03:33.079
<v Speaker 3>that length of time. Usually, you know, it's every time

0:03:33.120 --> 0:03:35.360
<v Speaker 3>something like this happens, you get a big list of

0:03:35.400 --> 0:03:38.920
<v Speaker 3>all the other times like crazy things happened, like GfK

0:03:39.000 --> 0:03:42.440
<v Speaker 3>getting assassinated barely put a dent in the market. You know,

0:03:42.520 --> 0:03:45.160
<v Speaker 3>even something like September eleventh didn't put a big dent

0:03:45.200 --> 0:03:47.760
<v Speaker 3>in the market relative to the economic stuff that was

0:03:47.800 --> 0:03:49.960
<v Speaker 3>going on at the time. So you know, we sort

0:03:50.000 --> 0:03:51.960
<v Speaker 3>of should have learned from that. But at the same time,

0:03:51.960 --> 0:03:57.280
<v Speaker 3>I mean, this is a very clear escalation down the

0:03:57.360 --> 0:03:59.760
<v Speaker 3>road to the kind of world that I suppose we've

0:03:59.760 --> 0:04:02.840
<v Speaker 3>been on and off, you know, I good few a

0:04:02.840 --> 0:04:03.720
<v Speaker 3>lot of years now.

0:04:04.160 --> 0:04:06.040
<v Speaker 1>Well, I suppose the key point is that it's not

0:04:06.120 --> 0:04:08.800
<v Speaker 1>just geopolitics, right. We know often when we're talking about

0:04:08.800 --> 0:04:11.000
<v Speaker 1>geopolitics from something very far away that doesn't have a

0:04:11.000 --> 0:04:13.160
<v Speaker 1>particularly impact on your day to day life. This isn't

0:04:13.160 --> 0:04:16.600
<v Speaker 1>just geopolitics. This is a massive, massive, one of the

0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:18.960
<v Speaker 1>greatest energy shocks that you and I have known in

0:04:19.000 --> 0:04:20.880
<v Speaker 1>our careers. So it's going to affect not just the

0:04:20.920 --> 0:04:22.920
<v Speaker 1>price of energy, but the price of everything else. That's

0:04:22.920 --> 0:04:25.200
<v Speaker 1>going to affect everybody's cost base. It's going to feed

0:04:25.240 --> 0:04:28.080
<v Speaker 1>through into inflation. It makes although the Bank of England

0:04:28.160 --> 0:04:31.120
<v Speaker 1>governor in the UK this week has been talking about

0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:33.039
<v Speaker 1>her we shouldn't jump the gum on rate rises and

0:04:33.080 --> 0:04:35.160
<v Speaker 1>he doesn't know yet and don't assume there's going to

0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:36.680
<v Speaker 1>be a rate rise after rate rises?

0:04:36.720 --> 0:04:39.000
<v Speaker 2>Who can possibly tell that not jump the gun excepter.

0:04:39.120 --> 0:04:40.200
<v Speaker 2>But nonetheless, we.

0:04:40.160 --> 0:04:42.680
<v Speaker 1>Know that in an inflationary environment, and we are now

0:04:42.720 --> 0:04:44.600
<v Speaker 1>in an inflationary environment, that's going to feed through.

0:04:44.520 --> 0:04:48.360
<v Speaker 2>Into great rises. So this is not distant geopolitics.

0:04:48.560 --> 0:04:52.280
<v Speaker 1>It's slow burn right, And there's I was talking seven

0:04:52.279 --> 0:04:53.960
<v Speaker 1>earlier in fact, on my podcast That's the Monday, who

0:04:54.000 --> 0:04:55.919
<v Speaker 1>was pointing out that this is a crisis that moves

0:04:56.120 --> 0:04:59.080
<v Speaker 1>at the speed of a tanker fifteen miles an hour

0:04:59.240 --> 0:05:03.320
<v Speaker 1>something like that. So it's slow burns. It's easy to

0:05:03.400 --> 0:05:08.160
<v Speaker 1>forget quite how serious it is. But it's not small.

0:05:08.480 --> 0:05:12.440
<v Speaker 1>It's big. And I find it extraordinary that everyone can

0:05:12.560 --> 0:05:15.200
<v Speaker 1>just look through it and market can be back at

0:05:15.240 --> 0:05:15.600
<v Speaker 1>their house.

0:05:15.800 --> 0:05:18.160
<v Speaker 3>And I suppose part of the problem is that the

0:05:18.200 --> 0:05:21.000
<v Speaker 3>oil price itself, although it's gone up an awful lot,

0:05:21.120 --> 0:05:23.479
<v Speaker 3>it's not going up as much as it did, say

0:05:23.480 --> 0:05:27.280
<v Speaker 3>in twenty eleven, or even in twenty twenty two. I

0:05:27.279 --> 0:05:30.120
<v Speaker 3>think that's maybe one thing. Well, the most visible oil

0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:33.760
<v Speaker 3>price hasn't. I'm vaguely aware that lots of other things

0:05:33.839 --> 0:05:36.280
<v Speaker 3>kind of have. But I'm also wondering if this is

0:05:36.320 --> 0:05:38.479
<v Speaker 3>one of those situations where it's a little bit like

0:05:38.560 --> 0:05:41.640
<v Speaker 3>we keep getting We've talked about this before, but the

0:05:41.720 --> 0:05:44.479
<v Speaker 3>idea that the wake up call that we all get

0:05:44.960 --> 0:05:46.960
<v Speaker 3>this time round is not going to be a price shock,

0:05:47.120 --> 0:05:49.440
<v Speaker 3>is going to be an actual shock, you know.

0:05:49.640 --> 0:05:50.880
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I'm.

0:05:50.800 --> 0:05:54.080
<v Speaker 3>Hearing people talking about kind of europe run jet fuel,

0:05:54.240 --> 0:05:57.279
<v Speaker 3>you know, in like six weeks reach John.

0:05:57.080 --> 0:05:58.440
<v Speaker 2>But I'm both beginning to.

0:05:58.400 --> 0:06:06.800
<v Speaker 4>Great exactly exactly would someone think of the tourists. I mean,

0:06:06.880 --> 0:06:09.600
<v Speaker 4>but it is whenever things like people get their holidays

0:06:09.600 --> 0:06:13.560
<v Speaker 4>canceled because there just isn't a flight anymore, that you know,

0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:16.719
<v Speaker 4>maybe we start to see a panic. And also, I

0:06:16.720 --> 0:06:19.400
<v Speaker 4>guess the other issues. America is still by far the

0:06:19.400 --> 0:06:22.120
<v Speaker 4>biggest stock market in the world, and it is to

0:06:22.200 --> 0:06:26.919
<v Speaker 4>a great extent the police that is most insulated from

0:06:27.080 --> 0:06:31.520
<v Speaker 4>this because it actually has its own energy. So I

0:06:31.520 --> 0:06:34.200
<v Speaker 4>do wonder how much that's got to do with it.

0:06:35.600 --> 0:06:39.000
<v Speaker 4>And also the constant talking de escalation. I mean, nobody,

0:06:39.360 --> 0:06:41.480
<v Speaker 4>we're still in a place, I think where nobody wants

0:06:41.520 --> 0:06:44.360
<v Speaker 4>to get caught on the wrong side of a massive

0:06:44.440 --> 0:06:47.760
<v Speaker 4>bounce in the market. And that's why we actually haven't

0:06:47.800 --> 0:06:51.080
<v Speaker 4>had a big fall at all, because everyone actually has

0:06:51.120 --> 0:06:53.440
<v Speaker 4>been buying the dip basically all the way through this.

0:06:54.600 --> 0:06:58.240
<v Speaker 4>And that's one also, I mean arguably, I mean, I

0:06:58.240 --> 0:07:02.840
<v Speaker 4>think it's very hard to say that trumps necessarily thinking,

0:07:02.880 --> 0:07:05.719
<v Speaker 4>particularly strategically, but I do think that his kind of

0:07:06.560 --> 0:07:09.000
<v Speaker 4>strategy would be the wrong thing. It's just instinctively got

0:07:09.000 --> 0:07:12.440
<v Speaker 4>that ability. It's on the poke people in the vulnerable spot.

0:07:13.440 --> 0:07:15.320
<v Speaker 4>And he keeps doing that whether it looks as if

0:07:15.360 --> 0:07:18.440
<v Speaker 4>anyone's going to give in to you know, disappaired as

0:07:18.440 --> 0:07:18.960
<v Speaker 4>it well.

0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:20.640
<v Speaker 2>Yeah exactly.

0:07:20.840 --> 0:07:22.520
<v Speaker 1>So you know, everyone is frightened that they're going to

0:07:22.600 --> 0:07:25.400
<v Speaker 1>end up missing out on the piece. And Dena has

0:07:25.400 --> 0:07:28.880
<v Speaker 1>a phrase for it, fomo opp.

0:07:29.000 --> 0:07:34.720
<v Speaker 3>For fair missing out on peace on pace of of course.

0:07:34.760 --> 0:07:35.960
<v Speaker 3>Oh yeah, oh yeah, okay.

0:07:36.760 --> 0:07:38.400
<v Speaker 2>By not being fully invested.

0:07:38.440 --> 0:07:41.560
<v Speaker 1>When it turns and add that to S and P

0:07:41.800 --> 0:07:44.800
<v Speaker 1>five hundred, earnings rising at a very fast pace, and

0:07:45.000 --> 0:07:47.960
<v Speaker 1>suddenly everything kind of looks okay, except that it kind

0:07:47.960 --> 0:07:48.360
<v Speaker 1>of doesn't.

0:07:48.480 --> 0:07:50.400
<v Speaker 3>How can they be rising? This is the thing that

0:07:50.440 --> 0:07:52.720
<v Speaker 3>I do struggle away, the idea that earlings are going

0:07:52.760 --> 0:07:55.679
<v Speaker 3>to rise even the low all these costs of residents

0:07:55.760 --> 0:07:58.560
<v Speaker 3>like we I mean, okay, I guess the other thing

0:07:58.680 --> 0:08:02.240
<v Speaker 3>is just general and I think general inflation has sort

0:08:02.280 --> 0:08:04.400
<v Speaker 3>of because we live in this much more inflation in

0:08:04.440 --> 0:08:09.440
<v Speaker 3>the environment. I think prices are probably less reliable in

0:08:09.480 --> 0:08:13.400
<v Speaker 3>a lot of ways than the you know, than they

0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:16.320
<v Speaker 3>have been. That's a very vague feeling. But I think

0:08:16.320 --> 0:08:19.560
<v Speaker 3>it's when the recession, for example, it's just because there's

0:08:19.560 --> 0:08:22.120
<v Speaker 3>a load of money constantly going in with her, and

0:08:22.160 --> 0:08:25.280
<v Speaker 3>it's always hard to actually measure things in real terms.

0:08:35.920 --> 0:08:37.920
<v Speaker 1>All right, listen, I'm going to introduce yet and the

0:08:38.040 --> 0:08:42.600
<v Speaker 1>new what we've had today, we've had it's just forgotten already,

0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:45.240
<v Speaker 1>fair of missing apple piece. And then there is another

0:08:45.280 --> 0:08:47.360
<v Speaker 1>one in circulation, the biffs.

0:08:48.400 --> 0:08:51.240
<v Speaker 3>Ah, yeah, we've heard this one this morning.

0:08:51.280 --> 0:08:56.360
<v Speaker 1>It's remember the pigs right around the pigs, etcetera, etcetera.

0:08:56.480 --> 0:08:57.320
<v Speaker 2>Now we have the.

0:08:57.200 --> 0:09:02.280
<v Speaker 1>Biffs, who are the three European economy as well Europe

0:09:02.280 --> 0:09:08.600
<v Speaker 1>plus US who have the nastiest debt problem. So the

0:09:08.600 --> 0:09:11.760
<v Speaker 1>biggest rises in borrowing cross from mccustomers likely to find

0:09:11.760 --> 0:09:15.920
<v Speaker 1>themselves and come home of physical crisis, and they are Italy,

0:09:16.520 --> 0:09:23.760
<v Speaker 1>France and Britain. The best of our round Britain franceff.

0:09:24.040 --> 0:09:26.559
<v Speaker 1>I don't know anyway, We mustn't we mustn't do French.

0:09:26.600 --> 0:09:28.000
<v Speaker 1>Remember what they've talked about us.

0:09:27.880 --> 0:09:38.640
<v Speaker 3>Doing French before. The listeners don't like it.

0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:38.319
<v Speaker 1>Anyway, So we have this, and this makes you look

0:09:38.320 --> 0:09:39.680
<v Speaker 1>at the UK, and we do have to think about

0:09:39.720 --> 0:09:42.600
<v Speaker 1>the UK rise we've got this incredibly high tax burden already,

0:09:42.720 --> 0:09:43.360
<v Speaker 1>we've got this.

0:09:43.440 --> 0:09:45.640
<v Speaker 2>Awful physical problem, incredibly a.

0:09:45.679 --> 0:09:50.600
<v Speaker 1>High level of debt to GDP, and a government that

0:09:50.840 --> 0:09:54.000
<v Speaker 1>keeps promising more spending on anything except for defense obviously,

0:09:54.040 --> 0:09:55.680
<v Speaker 1>which seems to be the one thing They're not prepared

0:09:55.679 --> 0:09:58.320
<v Speaker 1>to shine anything up. And at the same time we

0:09:58.400 --> 0:10:01.800
<v Speaker 1>have this really odd dynam this report out recently when

0:10:01.800 --> 0:10:05.800
<v Speaker 1>everyone knows that that UK GDP per head is but

0:10:05.960 --> 0:10:08.480
<v Speaker 1>not everyone actually, but we know that UK.

0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:10.040
<v Speaker 2>Gdpeeperhead is bizarrely low.

0:10:10.080 --> 0:10:12.800
<v Speaker 1>And there was this and the last few years everyone

0:10:13.040 --> 0:10:16.840
<v Speaker 1>was looking at UK gdpeeperhead relative to gdpeeper per head

0:10:16.840 --> 0:10:19.240
<v Speaker 1>in Mississippi, which is the poorest state in the US.

0:10:19.280 --> 0:10:21.160
<v Speaker 2>Are we going to slip follow them or not?

0:10:22.200 --> 0:10:25.560
<v Speaker 1>But there's recent study looked at how rich most people

0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:28.920
<v Speaker 1>in the UK think the UK is. So it turns

0:10:28.920 --> 0:10:30.599
<v Speaker 1>out that in fact, the majority of people in the

0:10:30.679 --> 0:10:34.280
<v Speaker 1>UK believe that the UK is rich rich, like Switzerland

0:10:34.360 --> 0:10:36.920
<v Speaker 1>or something like that. Now, crucially, it is absolutely true

0:10:36.920 --> 0:10:38.719
<v Speaker 1>that the UK has one of the biggest economies in

0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:39.959
<v Speaker 1>the world, right I think we're number six.

0:10:40.040 --> 0:10:40.600
<v Speaker 3>Number six.

0:10:41.080 --> 0:10:43.679
<v Speaker 1>Having the sixth largest economy in the world does not

0:10:43.840 --> 0:10:48.440
<v Speaker 1>mean that your individual members of the population are the

0:10:48.480 --> 0:10:50.880
<v Speaker 1>six richest people in the world. Because, of course, when

0:10:50.920 --> 0:10:54.000
<v Speaker 1>you break it down to GDP per head in the UK,

0:10:54.040 --> 0:10:57.360
<v Speaker 1>things have been absolutely horrible for decades. Real inflation adjusted

0:10:57.440 --> 0:11:02.480
<v Speaker 1>gdpeeperheads literally barely moved for twenty years since the financial crisis,

0:11:02.920 --> 0:11:05.640
<v Speaker 1>So in fact, individually we're really we're very poor.

0:11:06.240 --> 0:11:09.360
<v Speaker 3>I mean, well, it's interesting because someone pulled the Green

0:11:09.400 --> 0:11:11.640
<v Speaker 3>Party leader Zac Polanski up for this on Twitter the

0:11:11.720 --> 0:11:14.679
<v Speaker 3>other day. I noticed because he described the UK as

0:11:14.679 --> 0:11:18.719
<v Speaker 3>being the sixth sixth wealthiest country in the world, and

0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:21.480
<v Speaker 3>the two things are not the same at all, And

0:11:21.520 --> 0:11:24.480
<v Speaker 3>I do think, I mean rather that suggested to me that,

0:11:24.679 --> 0:11:28.800
<v Speaker 3>I mean, obviously people use these terms sometimes with a

0:11:28.880 --> 0:11:31.760
<v Speaker 3>kind of mendacious intent they wanted to sound as if

0:11:31.760 --> 0:11:33.679
<v Speaker 3>we're richer than we are. But also think a lot

0:11:33.679 --> 0:11:37.160
<v Speaker 3>of politicians are genuinely confused. It's like back in the

0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:42.280
<v Speaker 3>day whenever David Cameron used to get confused with deficit

0:11:42.400 --> 0:11:46.280
<v Speaker 3>and debt, and one thing that most politicians didn't seem

0:11:46.280 --> 0:11:47.960
<v Speaker 3>to have a handle on is what was the difference

0:11:48.000 --> 0:11:50.880
<v Speaker 3>between your annual deficit and the overall national debt? And

0:11:50.880 --> 0:11:54.200
<v Speaker 3>they would use the terms interchangeably that's stopped because of

0:11:54.280 --> 0:11:56.120
<v Speaker 3>I guess I kind I would say a kind of

0:11:56.160 --> 0:12:00.800
<v Speaker 3>media education campaign. Actually maybe this will be the same

0:12:00.800 --> 0:12:04.719
<v Speaker 3>with gdpeople head. But yeah, no, it's pretty disastrous. But

0:12:04.720 --> 0:12:07.000
<v Speaker 3>I thought you were making a really good point about

0:12:07.360 --> 0:12:11.800
<v Speaker 3>how that can this kind of miss and misperception explains

0:12:11.840 --> 0:12:14.400
<v Speaker 3>why people are so angry angry.

0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:16.040
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and I think it might.

0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:18.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean, one of the one of the problems we've

0:12:18.040 --> 0:12:21.240
<v Speaker 1>had in the UK is people simply not getting richer

0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:25.240
<v Speaker 1>gdpeper head in real time, simply not going up. So

0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:27.319
<v Speaker 1>your life one year of the next, one year of

0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:28.280
<v Speaker 1>the next, one year of the.

0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:30.800
<v Speaker 2>Next is not improving. It's not improving, and that's going

0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:32.480
<v Speaker 2>to make you pretty irritated to begin with.

0:12:32.800 --> 0:12:35.439
<v Speaker 1>And if you believe that the UK is a very

0:12:35.520 --> 0:12:39.520
<v Speaker 1>rich country but you are not getting richer year after

0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:43.080
<v Speaker 1>year after year, you must think that there is money

0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:45.719
<v Speaker 1>somewhere that other people have and you should have.

0:12:46.200 --> 0:12:47.079
<v Speaker 2>And I think that's.

0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:50.400
<v Speaker 5>Where we get this demand for wealth taxes and this

0:12:50.520 --> 0:12:53.840
<v Speaker 5>redistribution and all this sort of thing. It comes from

0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:57.520
<v Speaker 5>this idea that everyone feels that they are pull but

0:12:57.800 --> 0:12:59.960
<v Speaker 5>looking at the numbers, maybe everyone else isn't.

0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:03.000
<v Speaker 3>I think there's probably a lot of truth to that.

0:13:03.280 --> 0:13:05.520
<v Speaker 3>I mean, I do. I think there's a lot goes

0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:08.640
<v Speaker 3>into the general kind of sense of anger, and there's

0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:12.080
<v Speaker 3>ploy all kinds of things tied up with anxiety and

0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:15.240
<v Speaker 3>chaos and the sense of a lackey control over one's

0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:19.360
<v Speaker 3>own environment. But definitely the idea that other people must

0:13:19.360 --> 0:13:23.160
<v Speaker 3>be doing better than you, because how else do people

0:13:23.480 --> 0:13:27.760
<v Speaker 3>afford all these rising prices? And yeah, the promise is

0:13:27.800 --> 0:13:31.480
<v Speaker 3>also it's going to make things worse, because you know,

0:13:31.520 --> 0:13:33.480
<v Speaker 3>I was just we just saw that some of the

0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:36.960
<v Speaker 3>SMP did their manifesto this morning and one of the

0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:40.520
<v Speaker 3>things that they've explicitly said they'll imposes price controls on

0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:44.600
<v Speaker 3>the price of essential goods. And I kind of like, well, man,

0:13:44.640 --> 0:13:47.440
<v Speaker 3>you can't have a maximum price for bread and milk,

0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:52.560
<v Speaker 3>surely in the UK. This is not South America circa

0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:56.040
<v Speaker 3>the nineteen seventies. This is you know, this is even

0:13:56.120 --> 0:13:59.240
<v Speaker 3>more obviously disastrous and rent controls, and you know, we've

0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:02.440
<v Speaker 3>talked about them enough times and yeah, this is the

0:14:02.480 --> 0:14:04.240
<v Speaker 3>sort of thing that people are talking about, you know,

0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:06.800
<v Speaker 3>and the Greens talking about how there should be a

0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:09.880
<v Speaker 3>no bigger gap between the highest paid person in an

0:14:09.960 --> 0:14:12.959
<v Speaker 3>organization the lowest paid than a kind of issue of

0:14:13.040 --> 0:14:15.840
<v Speaker 3>you know, ten to one. So we really are looking

0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:24.640
<v Speaker 3>at some really pretty radical suggestions.

0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:23.920
<v Speaker 1>On going down to that idea of the top which

0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:26.200
<v Speaker 1>should not be more than ten times a lower wage, etcetera.

0:14:26.280 --> 0:14:29.000
<v Speaker 2>I mean, they're talking about pre tax and pre welfare.

0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:30.680
<v Speaker 1>And one of the things that you and I were

0:14:30.680 --> 0:14:33.120
<v Speaker 1>looking at last week, was it last week or the

0:14:33.120 --> 0:14:36.400
<v Speaker 1>week before, was the extent of the compression of net

0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:37.560
<v Speaker 1>incomes in the UK?

0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:39.040
<v Speaker 2>Yes, and such that.

0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:44.520
<v Speaker 1>After tag ex after the endless benefits paid to working people,

0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:48.160
<v Speaker 1>that gap is already down to not much more than

0:14:48.160 --> 0:14:48.880
<v Speaker 1>three times.

0:14:49.040 --> 0:14:51.320
<v Speaker 2>I mean, it's really fascinating.

0:14:50.880 --> 0:14:53.640
<v Speaker 3>Wasn't it. Wasn't it the statistic that somebody had found

0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:58.160
<v Speaker 3>that Britain, in terms of income equality was had actually

0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:02.160
<v Speaker 3>achieved greater kind of like compression. And then the Soviet Union. Yes, yeah,

0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:05.920
<v Speaker 3>So I mean, well this is the other night you

0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:08.680
<v Speaker 3>think like a lot of people still believe that not.

0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:11.960
<v Speaker 3>I mean, wealth inequality is a slightly different issues, more complicated,

0:15:11.960 --> 0:15:15.680
<v Speaker 3>it's hard to measure, but income an equality is definitely

0:15:15.840 --> 0:15:18.960
<v Speaker 3>going down. It peaked in about two thousand and seven

0:15:19.440 --> 0:15:23.000
<v Speaker 3>and it has gone down significantly since then. That you can.

0:15:23.160 --> 0:15:25.800
<v Speaker 3>You cannot make the argument that income an equality in

0:15:25.840 --> 0:15:29.040
<v Speaker 3>this country has gone up, and yeah, lots of people

0:15:29.040 --> 0:15:31.680
<v Speaker 3>do so, I mean, yeah, I think there's a lot

0:15:31.720 --> 0:15:34.640
<v Speaker 3>to what you're saying about people just thinking who the

0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:36.880
<v Speaker 3>hell has got all the money? Because I know I don't.

0:15:37.560 --> 0:15:38.840
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, but I suppose that. I mean.

0:15:38.880 --> 0:15:41.040
<v Speaker 1>The key thing with you, however people feel about it

0:15:41.120 --> 0:15:43.160
<v Speaker 1>or don't feel about it, The key thing is that

0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:48.240
<v Speaker 1>it is proper economic growth, the pie getting bigger round

0:15:48.320 --> 0:15:51.680
<v Speaker 1>that makes people happy. And that's why governments are always

0:15:51.680 --> 0:15:53.000
<v Speaker 1>so desperate to talk about growth.

0:15:53.000 --> 0:15:54.400
<v Speaker 2>And we're going to get growth, and we're going to get.

0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:56.240
<v Speaker 1>Growth because you say, what we really need them to

0:15:56.280 --> 0:15:58.960
<v Speaker 1>do is start stop talking about growth and start talking

0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:03.640
<v Speaker 1>about grow head individual incomes rising.

0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:05.440
<v Speaker 2>And they don't because of course we judge.

0:16:05.240 --> 0:16:09.160
<v Speaker 1>Them on growth, Delware glimally everyone checked out these jdpumber

0:16:09.440 --> 0:16:12.360
<v Speaker 1>They didn't talk about individual anyway. We're getting bogged down, John,

0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:18.800
<v Speaker 1>We're getting bugged down interesting and it is worrying. We

0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:20.360
<v Speaker 1>better say something else in that market.

0:16:20.760 --> 0:16:22.600
<v Speaker 3>Do you know what? It's something I wrote about this

0:16:22.640 --> 0:16:26.480
<v Speaker 3>week The listeners might find interesting if they didn't read it,

0:16:26.520 --> 0:16:29.800
<v Speaker 3>because it actually contained something approximating that kind of share

0:16:29.840 --> 0:16:32.360
<v Speaker 3>tip in it was do you know how the other

0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:35.640
<v Speaker 3>day you had a very good podcast with the Yanish Maraki,

0:16:35.840 --> 0:16:37.400
<v Speaker 3>who was great. I thought it was a great guest,

0:16:37.560 --> 0:16:40.320
<v Speaker 3>really interesting. It was basically talking about how AI is

0:16:40.600 --> 0:16:44.520
<v Speaker 3>quite possibly massively overhyped, and I was on the look

0:16:44.520 --> 0:16:46.960
<v Speaker 3>at all the software as the service companies that sold

0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:49.760
<v Speaker 3>off in the UK, and there's still so they took

0:16:49.800 --> 0:16:52.520
<v Speaker 3>a dive in January and they're still sort of floating

0:16:52.560 --> 0:16:55.880
<v Speaker 3>around the same level that they bottomed out in February,

0:16:56.120 --> 0:16:57.560
<v Speaker 3>and I was just thinking, if you're looking for a

0:16:57.640 --> 0:17:02.440
<v Speaker 3>hedge and an easy hedge against massive EI disappointment, then

0:17:02.480 --> 0:17:05.399
<v Speaker 3>maybe buying a small basket of those stocks would be

0:17:05.440 --> 0:17:10.200
<v Speaker 3>quite a good diversifier for your portfolio. And conveniently they're

0:17:10.240 --> 0:17:14.320
<v Speaker 3>all held by Nick Train's investment Trust, So I thought,

0:17:14.400 --> 0:17:15.960
<v Speaker 3>as is quite an easy one to.

0:17:17.960 --> 0:17:18.000
<v Speaker 5>No.

0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:21.720
<v Speaker 3>It's been doing atrociously, like really badly, and for a

0:17:21.760 --> 0:17:24.639
<v Speaker 3>good reason, because you know, the the quality style has

0:17:24.640 --> 0:17:26.840
<v Speaker 3>been out of favor. It's the same way what's his name,

0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:31.359
<v Speaker 3>Terry Smith, this sort of stuff has done poorly. But

0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:34.040
<v Speaker 3>looking at again, you're kind of like, well, over fifty

0:17:34.040 --> 0:17:37.679
<v Speaker 3>percent of the portfolio is in these you know, stocks

0:17:37.680 --> 0:17:40.159
<v Speaker 3>that have been battled by the idea that AI is

0:17:40.160 --> 0:17:42.920
<v Speaker 3>going to destroy their business models. So maybe if AI

0:17:43.000 --> 0:17:48.200
<v Speaker 3>does turn out to be incredibly disappointing, then that will benefit.

0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:51.720
<v Speaker 1>From it the pleasure to go maybe maybe one of

0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:54.040
<v Speaker 1>these portfolios and has quite a lot of them in

0:17:54.160 --> 0:17:54.840
<v Speaker 1>luxury good.

0:17:55.520 --> 0:17:59.840
<v Speaker 3>No, I don't think that one is in Diageo or

0:18:00.200 --> 0:18:02.720
<v Speaker 3>but also inshrewed those which obviously did already because it

0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:05.840
<v Speaker 3>had our bed for it. So I don't think you

0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:08.200
<v Speaker 3>know it's Budby. It's called Baldbury, but again.

0:18:08.040 --> 0:18:10.560
<v Speaker 2>That that's what I was thinking of. Is that a

0:18:10.640 --> 0:18:11.280
<v Speaker 2>luxury good.

0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:13.880
<v Speaker 3>I don't know much of it fashion obviously, but I've

0:18:13.880 --> 0:18:15.840
<v Speaker 3>always been a little bit skeptical of the idea of

0:18:15.920 --> 0:18:18.560
<v Speaker 3>Budbury as a kine you know. I mean, it's always

0:18:18.600 --> 0:18:23.080
<v Speaker 3>had that problem, hasn't it. I mean, anyway, John, I think.

0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:24.720
<v Speaker 1>Anyone who's ever seen you on stage at any of

0:18:24.760 --> 0:18:26.000
<v Speaker 1>our live events would say.

0:18:25.880 --> 0:18:27.080
<v Speaker 2>That you know a lot about fashion.

0:18:27.880 --> 0:18:31.119
<v Speaker 3>That's that's extremely caned. I'm just gonna let that one

0:18:31.160 --> 0:18:33.040
<v Speaker 3>sit there with a responding to it.

0:18:33.280 --> 0:18:35.840
<v Speaker 1>Okay, and I'm going to end our conversation and just

0:18:35.960 --> 0:18:37.520
<v Speaker 1>leave that one.

0:18:40.760 --> 0:18:43.240
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening to this week's Mary Talks Money debrief.

0:18:43.280 --> 0:18:45.520
<v Speaker 2>If you'd like a ship rate review and subscribe wherever

0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:47.040
<v Speaker 2>you listen to, podcasts also be shown.

0:18:47.080 --> 0:18:49.560
<v Speaker 1>Follow me and John on ex o Twitter at Marinus

0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:51.199
<v Speaker 1>w and John Underscore Graphic.

0:18:51.440 --> 0:18:54.280
<v Speaker 2>This episode was produced by some SIDI production support and

0:18:54.359 --> 0:18:57.040
<v Speaker 1>Sound design by Moses and Questions and comments on this

0:18:57.119 --> 0:18:59.320
<v Speaker 1>show and all the shows are always welcome our show

0:18:59.359 --> 0:19:02.200
<v Speaker 1>emails and money at bobog dot net