WEBVTT - FFW Micro - Justin "Air Bear" Herbert

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<v Speaker 1>You found Fantasy Football Weekly Micro, a deep dive on

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<v Speaker 1>one player in just five to ten minutes.

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<v Speaker 2>Now here's your host.

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<v Speaker 3>Paul Chargian.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly Micro.

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<v Speaker 1>Addition, I am Paul Charchian, my Coast's usual Tyler Cannably

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<v Speaker 1>PPR Tyler Yep, Twitter, yep.

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<v Speaker 2>Happy to have you back a new week.

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<v Speaker 1>We got a bunch of fresh players to look at,

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<v Speaker 1>and I want to start this week with Justin Herbert.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, really interesting player, just because he was going really

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<v Speaker 4>high in drafts last year, maybe as the quarterback. I

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<v Speaker 4>think I don't remember the time I had, maybe four

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<v Speaker 4>or five or something like that. Yeah, and he's just

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<v Speaker 4>he just didn't have that great of year. I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>he finishes the RB eleven and the RB seventeen in

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<v Speaker 4>average points per game. Definitely not ideal.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, okay, in fairness, yeah, he had a brutal rib

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<v Speaker 1>injury where he took the helmet right to the ribs right,

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<v Speaker 1>and then he had a shoulder injury though so bad

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<v Speaker 1>he had an off season laboram surgery. I mean, that's

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<v Speaker 1>not an excuse, but also then you throw in Keenan All.

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<v Speaker 3>Actually it is an excuse.

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<v Speaker 1>Keenan Allen's injuries. He played I think nine games last year.

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<v Speaker 1>Mike Williams was in and out of the lineup. I

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<v Speaker 1>mean there were a lot of things working against Justin Herbert.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean the pathway to him being better this year

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<v Speaker 1>is seems clear to me.

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<v Speaker 4>Oh, I'm totally with you on that. On that end,

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, he's going as the QB seven right now.

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<v Speaker 4>So it's not like people you're not getting at a

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<v Speaker 4>huge discount or anything like that. People know how good

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<v Speaker 4>Justin Herbert is. I think the thing that you need

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<v Speaker 4>to look at, though, is I was trying to identify

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<v Speaker 4>the problem because I looked at I saw he's like, Okay,

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<v Speaker 4>QB eleven, QB seventeen average points per game, Like what

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<v Speaker 4>was the problem last season in terms of like his stats?

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<v Speaker 4>And I dove into some of the stuff and he

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<v Speaker 4>was number two in passing attempts.

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<v Speaker 2>He was like that volume is very important for our quarterbacks.

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<v Speaker 4>He's number four in red zone passing attempts.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, love that too.

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<v Speaker 4>We want touchdowns and he was number two in passing yards.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, So it's not to like, why did it all.

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<v Speaker 4>Come together that so? Well? You mentioned the touchdowns. He

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<v Speaker 4>was eighth in passing tds, which isn't necessarily that's not

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<v Speaker 4>a terrible staty, but he only twenty five touchdowns, which

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<v Speaker 4>that was Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady threw more touchdowns

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<v Speaker 4>and in last season, which.

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<v Speaker 2>Was those guys exactly.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, so that was one of the things. He was

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<v Speaker 4>also eleventh in deep ball attempts. Considering he was number

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<v Speaker 4>two in passing attempts and then eleventh in deep ball

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<v Speaker 4>attempts kind of tells me that he was just dunking,

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<v Speaker 4>dunking dunkle of a field and the kind of I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>Austin Echlo was a great, bad fishery of that, but

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<v Speaker 4>it wasn't that great for Justin Herbert. And then he

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<v Speaker 4>was also thirty second in air yards per attempt in

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<v Speaker 4>twenty twenty one, he was fourth.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, So you know before two years ago in air

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<v Speaker 1>yards per attempt, which we care about. We want deep

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<v Speaker 1>ball passers because that unlocks big gains touchdowns.

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<v Speaker 2>We want that in fantasy.

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<v Speaker 1>Justin Herbert was fourth two years ago, and then last

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<v Speaker 1>year he's hobbled multiple injuries, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams hurt,

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<v Speaker 1>and the air yards go down. And now you've got

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<v Speaker 1>dump off stuff, and a lot of Justin Herbert's value

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<v Speaker 1>gets tied to what Austin Eckler can do after the catch,

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<v Speaker 1>which isn't bad. He's a great player, but that's not

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<v Speaker 1>what you want your quarterback to have to rely on

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<v Speaker 1>your running back for you your passing efficiency exactly.

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<v Speaker 4>And I think I mean you mentioned the rib and

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<v Speaker 4>the shoulder. I think this next part is kind of

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<v Speaker 4>one of the reasons why he wasn't as good in

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<v Speaker 4>this area was the rushing He had had basically no

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<v Speaker 4>rushing production last season. He was one hundred and forty

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<v Speaker 4>seven rushing yards, was just seventeenth among quarterbacks, thirty seventh

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<v Speaker 4>in yards per game among quarterbacks. It's zero rushing touchdowns.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, in the years prior he had been like four

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<v Speaker 1>rushing touchdowns. I think he might have had a five

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<v Speaker 1>rushing touchdown season. And Justin Herbert was he was helping

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<v Speaker 1>you in small ways with those touchdowns, but you know

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<v Speaker 1>it counts me. That stuff really does change the trajectory

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<v Speaker 1>of your fantasy output. The difference between being a zero

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<v Speaker 1>rushing touchdown, you know, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr versus having five.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a big difference.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and I mean you mentioned the injuries mentioned the key,

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<v Speaker 4>I mean injuries to himself obviously, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams,

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<v Speaker 4>they both missed a lot of time. Rashawn Slater is

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<v Speaker 4>pretty much star line star lineman. Only played three games

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<v Speaker 4>last season and then he was how old injuries of

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<v Speaker 4>his own. So, but enough of last season, I think

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<v Speaker 4>we need to kind of dive into twenty twenty three

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<v Speaker 4>and how it's going to get better for Herbert. So

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<v Speaker 4>I think the first thing I think of is just

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<v Speaker 4>the weapons that he has to random around him. Now.

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<v Speaker 4>They put first round draft capitol into Quentin Johnson, who

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<v Speaker 4>I personally really like, and he's just going to be

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<v Speaker 4>another one of the weapons to go along with Keenan Allen,

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<v Speaker 4>Mike Williams, Eckler, I'd consider Jerald Everett, and Josh Sommer.

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<v Speaker 4>It's nice complimentary rules.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, probably that's it. Don't forget Donald Parum. I'm a

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<v Speaker 1>big Donald Parker. Okay, you don't have any reason to

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<v Speaker 1>know that, but I am regular FFW listeners.

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<v Speaker 2>Know I keep waiting every year.

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<v Speaker 3>It's like, oh, this is the year for Donald.

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<v Speaker 1>I know it turns out it's never the year for Donald.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm on this, but I think it's I feel like

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<v Speaker 4>that ship is saaled right.

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<v Speaker 1>No, he's still young. I mean, dude, it's like twenty four. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's I wouldn't I wouldn't go quite that far.

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<v Speaker 4>That's what I love.

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<v Speaker 3>The athletic makeup of Donald parum.

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<v Speaker 2>But it's hard to ask.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, Herbert's got He's got.

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<v Speaker 1>Receivers everywhere is the bigger point to all of this.

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<v Speaker 1>And Quentin Johnson adds to the depth. And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>Keenan Allen keeps getting hurt. Michael Wims has always been

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<v Speaker 1>hurt his whole career.

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<v Speaker 3>On it, you know, on and off heard.

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<v Speaker 1>So hopefully this is this adds enough depth that he's

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<v Speaker 1>always got legitimate targets.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah. And one of the other things that I like

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<v Speaker 4>is Kellen Moore is now the play caller in Los Angeles,

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<v Speaker 4>which I like is Dallas ranked fifth and first over

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<v Speaker 4>the past two seasons in total scoring offense, right, So

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<v Speaker 4>that's just great for the touchdowns Herbert should see and

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<v Speaker 4>it's just great for the whole offense in general.

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<v Speaker 2>So I looked at Kellen.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the things I want to see is can

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<v Speaker 1>I really can I really tell our listeners, Justin Herbert's

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<v Speaker 1>going to go back to throwing downfield.

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<v Speaker 2>And I want to say yes automatically.

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<v Speaker 1>And I was hoping to be able to go well,

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<v Speaker 1>Kellen Moore had Deak Prescott, Dek Prescott throwing deep ball

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<v Speaker 1>at the time, but he really didn't. Prescott was twenty

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<v Speaker 1>third and deep ball pass percentage last year, so you know.

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<v Speaker 2>That might not. Okay, that's it.

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<v Speaker 1>Justin Herbert's got a bigger arm than Dak Prescott does.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, so they're just so there's that, and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>optimistic Kellen Moore, Colin moriz is he will help this offense.

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<v Speaker 3>He will. I'm confident.

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<v Speaker 4>I agree. Yeah. I also don't think Dallas had the

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<v Speaker 4>downfield weapons that the Chargers do. I mean they had

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<v Speaker 4>Ceedee Lamb obviously, but other than that, I can't really.

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<v Speaker 4>None of those other guys will we scream deep threat

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<v Speaker 4>to me.

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<v Speaker 2>So yeah, like Mike Williams does, Like.

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<v Speaker 4>Williams big body guy, John Palmer does to a little bit.

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<v Speaker 3>So he just got good size.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah he does. Yeah, And then I think the passing touchdowns,

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<v Speaker 4>like just all this stuff, even if they didn't have

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<v Speaker 4>Kellen Moore come in I think he just do for

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<v Speaker 4>a little bit of positive regression. In terms of passing touchdowns.

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<v Speaker 4>He had thirty eight of passing tds in twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 4>and thirty one in his rookie or thirty eight and

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<v Speaker 4>twenty twenty one, and then thirty one in his rookie

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<v Speaker 4>season right the rookie season.

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<v Speaker 1>He didn't start the season as the starter, and so yeah, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>but thirty eight passing touchdowns two years ago, to me

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<v Speaker 1>way more indicative of who Justin Herbert is than the

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<v Speaker 1>twenty five touchdowns we got last year, for all the

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<v Speaker 1>reasons that we've mentioned, for all the things that went

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<v Speaker 1>wrong last year.

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<v Speaker 2>So I'm back.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm right back on Herbert.

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<v Speaker 2>I love him.

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<v Speaker 1>I think he should be closer to QB five. I

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<v Speaker 1>think there's so many reasons to look at last year

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<v Speaker 1>as an anomaly, and dude's a freak. Justin Herbert's arm

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<v Speaker 1>is awesome.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I and he can do it with his legs too,

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<v Speaker 4>which I know he didn't see last year. But in

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<v Speaker 4>twenty twenty one, he had three hundred two rushing yards,

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<v Speaker 4>which was tenth among quarterbacks, and he had three rushing touchdowns,

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<v Speaker 4>Like three rushing touchdowns that's a good that's gonna boost

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<v Speaker 4>your stat your season stats up a little bit for sure. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>Absolutely.

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<v Speaker 4>All right, let's play the ADP game you mentioned quarterback five.

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<v Speaker 4>We'll start with justin fields going off the board as

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<v Speaker 4>QB five right now.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, here's you know.

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<v Speaker 1>The thing is most scoring systems in fantasy football. If

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<v Speaker 1>you've got a rushing quarterback, you've got you've unlocked the

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<v Speaker 1>magic key to breaking your scoring system.

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<v Speaker 3>So I have to take fields at five.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I I'll take fields even though I don't want to.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm gonna take this next guy over fields, Joe Burrow

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<v Speaker 4>at QB six. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>What's not to love about Joe Burrow?

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<v Speaker 2>Right?

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<v Speaker 4>I think he wins the MVP this year. I've I've

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<v Speaker 4>placed money on him winning the MVP this year.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna take Joe Burrow on the strength of his

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<v Speaker 1>receivers where they are right now. This year, I would

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<v Speaker 1>rather go to war with T Higgins and Jamar Chase

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<v Speaker 1>than what's left of Keenan Allen, a promising but still

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<v Speaker 1>rookie receiver in Quentin Johnson and Mike Williams.

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<v Speaker 3>Whatever, he's healthy, So I gotta take Joe Burrow.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm gonna go Joe Burrow as well, over over Herbert.

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<v Speaker 4>Next one we got is Trevor Lawrence at QB eight.

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<v Speaker 3>Dang, I like Lawrence a lot too.

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<v Speaker 2>This gets this is getting a little thorny.

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<v Speaker 4>These are like all the guys who like aren't they're

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<v Speaker 4>not running quarterbacks, but they can run.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, they can't.

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<v Speaker 4>Burrow showed a lot of like kind of rushing ability

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<v Speaker 4>last year. Herbert obviously we talked about it. And then Trevor

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<v Speaker 4>Lawnce another guy who's.

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<v Speaker 1>Lawrence can run yep, Yes, they don't care really many

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<v Speaker 1>designed runs, but he's got some legit mobility to him.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm taking Herbert.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm taking Herbert as well.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm just you know, arm quality, and we've seen Herbert

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<v Speaker 1>post a thirty eight touchdown season, so yeah, I'm taking Herbert.

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<v Speaker 4>All right. Deshaun Watson QB nine.

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<v Speaker 3>Deshaun Watson doesn't blong anywhere near QB nine.

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<v Speaker 4>You don't think so, No, I think it's a great spot

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<v Speaker 4>for him. Honestly, I am. I am taking a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of Deshaun Watson right now at QB nine.

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<v Speaker 1>Boy, I wouldn't, Okay, I understand the thinking on Watson

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<v Speaker 1>because we just talked about how rushing quarterbacks can break

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<v Speaker 1>open your scoring system and all the advantages they get.

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<v Speaker 2>I did not like the fact that they didn't let him.

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<v Speaker 1>They did not let Deshaun Watson really run at all

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<v Speaker 1>in what we saw of him down the stretch November

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<v Speaker 1>and December.

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<v Speaker 3>They didn't barely let him run.

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<v Speaker 1>And that is and we know Kevin Stefanski with Nick Chubb,

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<v Speaker 1>it's always going to.

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<v Speaker 3>Be a run first, running back first mentality there.

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<v Speaker 1>So I'm not on Watson at QB nine at all.

0:09:56.240 --> 0:09:58.760
<v Speaker 4>That's fair. I just think he has the ceiling to

0:09:58.880 --> 0:10:00.679
<v Speaker 4>I mean, we've seen him finish a Q three and

0:10:00.760 --> 0:10:03.440
<v Speaker 4>like that top three quarterback range. He actually has that ceiling.

0:10:03.800 --> 0:10:06.640
<v Speaker 4>So maybe that was like this group of quarterbacks it

0:10:06.640 --> 0:10:11.000
<v Speaker 4>feels pretty choky with Alan Mahomes and Hurts, so you

0:10:11.160 --> 0:10:13.280
<v Speaker 4>know this group. But I'd still like Watson. He's got

0:10:13.280 --> 0:10:15.080
<v Speaker 4>a lot of good weapons around him. He's got Cooper,

0:10:15.120 --> 0:10:17.000
<v Speaker 4>he's got in Djoku, he's got a lot a newly

0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:20.719
<v Speaker 4>free Elijah Moore, he's got chubbed, and he's got a

0:10:20.760 --> 0:10:22.480
<v Speaker 4>great old line. It's just there's not a lot of

0:10:22.480 --> 0:10:24.280
<v Speaker 4>things that he doesn't have around him in terms of

0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:25.360
<v Speaker 4>the offense.

0:10:25.000 --> 0:10:26.160
<v Speaker 2>So agreed.

0:10:26.240 --> 0:10:29.719
<v Speaker 1>Dynasty wise, man, we got so many good young quarterbacks

0:10:29.800 --> 0:10:32.120
<v Speaker 1>right now. Yeah, I don't think he really falls anywhere different,

0:10:32.160 --> 0:10:35.600
<v Speaker 1>justin Herbert doesn't fall anywhere different in Dynasty to my mind,

0:10:35.640 --> 0:10:38.000
<v Speaker 1>because all the guys that I would take before him,

0:10:38.040 --> 0:10:38.920
<v Speaker 1>they're all young too.

0:10:39.280 --> 0:10:42.840
<v Speaker 4>Yeah. Well, would you take Fields over Herbert and Dynasty

0:10:43.520 --> 0:10:45.480
<v Speaker 4>because he took him over him in Redraft? Would you

0:10:45.480 --> 0:10:46.240
<v Speaker 4>do it in Dynasty?

0:10:47.080 --> 0:10:48.200
<v Speaker 3>No, I think i'd go Herbert.

0:10:48.280 --> 0:10:51.280
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, the safety exactly. Yeah. I want a guy who

0:10:51.320 --> 0:10:52.960
<v Speaker 4>I know is gonna play for the next ten years. Yeah,

0:10:53.640 --> 0:10:54.199
<v Speaker 4>I don't know.

0:10:54.320 --> 0:10:55.200
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I'm with you on that.

0:10:55.280 --> 0:10:55.880
<v Speaker 3>I'm with you on that.

0:10:55.920 --> 0:10:58.200
<v Speaker 1>And then maybe well that'll sound foolish to hear, but yeah,

0:10:58.280 --> 0:11:01.360
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0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:10.240
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0:11:28.840 --> 0:11:29.520
<v Speaker 2>Thank you, Tyler.

0:11:29.559 --> 0:11:33.520
<v Speaker 1>We'll go back tomorrow for more FFW micro talk to

0:11:33.559 --> 0:11:38.480
<v Speaker 1>you then, everybody. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of iHeartRadio.

0:11:38.640 --> 0:11:42.880
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0:11:43.000 --> 0:11:45.000
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