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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, but this one is good.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go.

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Speaker 2: Throwing in so speak. We're saying it's a cash touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: We see the most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 3: they go to winning. That's incredible, big banks, of all banks,

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Speaker 3: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 3: ultimate kaboy.

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Speaker 1: You want to pass.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. We are back today

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Speaker 4: continuing our NFL season preview with all the season long

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Speaker 4: team exotics today, what team will win the most games?

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Speaker 4: Who will score the most points? Will anybody go seventeen

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Speaker 4: and oer or oh and seventeen? Joining me as alas

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Speaker 4: is my co host, Raheem Palmer, and we have some

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Speaker 4: exciting news today, folks. Raheem and I are going to

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Speaker 4: be coming to your ear holes every Monday and Friday

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Speaker 4: all season long. Rahiem, how excited are you to talk

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Speaker 4: football twice a week all year?

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Speaker 2: I'm very excited.

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Speaker 5: I mean, football is America's number one sport and you

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Speaker 5: know we do NBA.

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Speaker 2: But we really do NFL. So we're gonna turn up.

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Speaker 5: We're gonna try to get you got some winners, some

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Speaker 5: actionable advice and it should be really exciting.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm excited.

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Speaker 4: We we're gonna be doing a lot more season previous stuff.

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Speaker 4: We got all Raheem and Brandon all next week, so

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Speaker 4: we'll tell you more about that at the end. Before

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Speaker 4: we get started, don't forget to check out our win

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Speaker 4: Total podcasts right here on the Action or podcast. So Monday,

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Speaker 4: the two part AFC episode just dropped with Stucky, Chris

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Speaker 4: Raybund and Sean Kerner. That is good stuff, Like you

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Speaker 4: got to listen to that and then hit the rewind

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Speaker 4: and listen again. The NFC episodes are coming later this week,

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Speaker 4: so make sure to watch for those as all is Oliver.

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Speaker 3: Odds today are.

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Speaker 4: From bet MGM, the official odds provider of the Action

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Speaker 4: Network podcast. So let's just get into it. We're gonna

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Speaker 4: start we're looking really at the extremes today. We are

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Speaker 4: not going to talk about a lot of the teams

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Speaker 4: in the middle. We're looking for high end and low

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Speaker 4: end outcomes. So let's start with most wins. Who do

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Speaker 4: we think might lead the NFL in wins this year?

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Speaker 4: And that is not split by conference, None of these

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Speaker 4: are split up. It's just the whole league. So naturally,

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Speaker 4: the Chiefs and Bucks are favorites here. They're going to

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Speaker 4: be favorites on a lot of our most things today. So, Rahim,

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Speaker 4: how do you feel about the Chiefs or the Bucks

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Speaker 4: as favorite to have the most wins.

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna be honest, I'm not that high on the

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Speaker 5: Chiefs this year. I mean the Chiefs when I look

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Speaker 5: at them, you know, they still can't stop the run.

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Speaker 5: And I know it's better to stop passing as opposed

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Speaker 5: to run, but if you can't stop the run and push,

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Speaker 5: you in trouble and then all so, I just think

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Speaker 5: they're lowd in.

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Speaker 2: At wide receiver and let's Seemy Watkins ball.

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Speaker 5: I just think they are one or two injuries away from,

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Speaker 5: you know, really struggling to have the prolific offense that

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Speaker 5: we saw in years past.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 5: They did shot up the offensive line, but I wouldn't

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Speaker 5: bet them to have the most wins. I mean, especially

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Speaker 5: coming off the Super Bowl year. As far as the Bucks,

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Speaker 5: I think the Bucks are. You know, they're in a

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Speaker 5: good position. I'm going to take something with a longer shot,

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Speaker 5: you know, plus four to fifty doesn't do it for me,

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Speaker 5: So it's not something I'm willing to bet.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm not touching these the Bucks especially, I don't

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Speaker 4: want to do Tom Brady has done this for Rodeo,

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Speaker 4: like he doesn't really give a rip about getting a

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Speaker 4: ton of regular season wins. You know, Brady and the

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Speaker 4: Patriots used to lose a few games in September. They

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Speaker 4: kind of do the slow ramp up and hit their

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Speaker 4: speed in the second half.

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Speaker 3: So that's just not a bat.

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Speaker 4: I'm not out in the Bucks necessarily, But as far

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Speaker 4: as the regular season wins, no, thanks. The thing with

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Speaker 4: the Chiefs, I don't disagree with anything you said, but

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Speaker 4: the last three years they've won twelve, thirteen and fourteen games,

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Speaker 4: so that's an average thirteen and three season. Patrick Mahomes

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Speaker 4: is thirty eight and eight lifetime and has won twenty

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Speaker 4: the last twenty one regular season games. That's pretty good.

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Speaker 4: It's a lot of wins. So I'm not ruling the

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Speaker 4: Chiefs out. I'm just not betting it either at plus

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Speaker 4: three fifty or plus four fifty.

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Speaker 3: There's too many things that can go wrong.

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Speaker 4: We're looking for the theme of this podcast today is

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Speaker 4: is what can go wrong and what might go right?

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Speaker 4: And we're looking for those long shots where it's like, well,

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Speaker 4: this is not necessarily going to happen, but at twenty

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Speaker 4: to one, we only need happened five percent of the

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Speaker 4: time could happen there. So let's move down the list

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Speaker 4: then in that next top ten or so outside of

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Speaker 4: the Chiefs or Bucks, who grabs your eye as someone

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Speaker 4: that might be a value play and not like plus

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Speaker 4: one thousand, two thousand sort of range.

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Speaker 5: When I look at this, I mean the name that

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Speaker 5: I see that looks the best of the Browns. I

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Speaker 5: mean it's only at plus nine hundred.

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Speaker 2: They look like the.

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Speaker 5: Super Bowl team to me. I mean, they fixed their secondary.

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Speaker 5: You know, a lot of guys were hurt last year.

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Speaker 5: The offense is going to be better. I just think

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Speaker 5: the second year of Chemisty fantasy system puts this team

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Speaker 5: in a place to where you know, they could be

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Speaker 5: thirteen and four.

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Speaker 2: You know, I really really like this team. So that's

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Speaker 2: the thing that stands out to me.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like the Browns.

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Speaker 4: I definitely can see a world where they are the

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Speaker 4: one seed, where they have that thirteen and four season.

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Speaker 4: I'm just not sure that they do it ten percent

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Speaker 4: of the time. I think that I don't think it's unrealistic.

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Speaker 4: I think i'd probably put that closer to half or

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Speaker 4: you know, five, six, seven percent somewhere in there.

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Speaker 3: Part of the problem is I really like the Ravens.

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Speaker 4: Also, I'm not going to bet them here because similar

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Speaker 4: reason at eight hundred, it's not worth it. They're in

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Speaker 4: the same division, so that's two games right away that

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Speaker 4: they got to play against each other, and you know,

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Speaker 4: just tough schedule that way. To me, The one that

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Speaker 4: jumps out for odds wise is the Green Bay Packers

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Speaker 4: at plus twenty two hundred. The Packers went thirteen and

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Speaker 4: three both of the last two seasons. Look, I'm not

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Speaker 4: in on the Packers this season. I I'm a little

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Speaker 4: worried about what's going to happen with the Rodgers thing.

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Speaker 4: You know, is there going to be any fallout? And

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Speaker 4: both the last two years, as the season came to close,

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Speaker 4: I think both of us were like, it's time to

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Speaker 4: fade the Packers. They don't look like a real thirteen

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Speaker 4: and three team. But guess what, they keep winning and

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Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers is pretty good at getting that win when

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Speaker 4: they need to. They're the tenth favorite right now. There's

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Speaker 4: just no way that they should be the tenth favorite,

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Speaker 4: especially because they got two games against the Bears, two

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Speaker 4: games against the Lions that could be really tasty. The Vikings,

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Speaker 4: my vikings could easily implode, so suddenly that could be

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Speaker 4: a really easy path to six and on in the division.

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Speaker 4: And we just saw thirteen and three twice in a row.

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Speaker 4: I just feel like as the tenth best odds at

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Speaker 4: twenty two to one, I feel like they could be

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Speaker 4: in play there.

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Speaker 5: Ye, I have to push back on this, and I

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Speaker 5: do think, you know, I've gotten to a place where,

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Speaker 5: you know, you guys know, I had the Packers to

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Speaker 5: win a Super bowlas year have the Packers to win NFC.

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Speaker 5: I had Aaron Rodgers to win MVP. But when I

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Speaker 5: come into this year, you know there's no way that

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Speaker 5: Aaron Rodgers can play at the level to he did

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Speaker 5: last year. They lost a lot on an offensive line line,

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Speaker 5: They lost Corey Lensley, David Botsiri is out.

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Speaker 2: I think the Packers are going to end.

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Speaker 5: Up winning this division by default because we know that

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Speaker 5: the Bears, they just struggling.

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Speaker 2: Naggy should be a lane duck coach. At this point.

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Speaker 5: They don't have offensive line. The Lions are one of

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Speaker 5: the worst teams in the league, which would good to layer.

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Speaker 5: I think Minnesota has a chance as this division. But

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Speaker 5: when you look at the Packers' schedule, they have a span.

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Speaker 5: Look at the look at these games they play. They

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Speaker 5: played Washington, dinner at Arizona, then they're at Kansas City.

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Speaker 5: Did they play Seattle, Minnesota and the Los Angeles ran

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Speaker 5: That's the game that they played before the Bot. Did

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Speaker 5: they come off the body play Chicago Baltimore and cleaning?

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Speaker 5: So I just think it's a really tough schedule and

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Speaker 5: it's far for is like when you look at their

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Speaker 5: pot dagger ring expectation the last two years, they overperformed

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Speaker 5: it bouy over three games the last two years, and.

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Speaker 2: Typically you tended to regress. So I got to push

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Speaker 2: back on the Packers.

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Speaker 5: I just know I don't think that's a bet that

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Speaker 5: you I would typically make.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree with once you're saying. I'm definitely a

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Speaker 4: little worried about their offense. I think the line is

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Speaker 4: going to be a lot worse, and it definitely is

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Speaker 4: a regression team. To me, this is just a numbers play.

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Speaker 4: To me, I do like the defense. I think the

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Speaker 4: defense is a little underrated. I just think there's a

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Speaker 4: path there. It's the same. It's the numbers player that

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Speaker 4: I would want to make with the I'd feel better

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Speaker 4: about the Browns than the Packers. I'm just not feeling

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Speaker 4: better at nine to one versus twenty two to one.

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Speaker 4: So I'm not betting green Bay to do well at

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Speaker 4: basically anything else.

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Speaker 3: This is this is almost like.

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Speaker 4: As I'm spilling on a lot of these futures here,

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Speaker 4: this is my out on green Bay in case my

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Speaker 4: arida is wrong or in case they keep beating the

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Speaker 4: expectations every year. This is a spot where I think,

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Speaker 4: you know, get a little bit back on it. So, okay,

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Speaker 4: so the Packers are tenth longest odds, Is there anyone

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Speaker 4: pass them down the board that you think is worth

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Speaker 4: talking about?

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Speaker 5: I mean, you guys know, I'm high on the Washington

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Speaker 5: football team. I think if Ryan Fitzpatrick can basically be

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Speaker 5: he could just not turn the ball over. I think

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Speaker 5: this team has a real shot at you know, when

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Speaker 5: the super Bow. I love to Washington football team this year.

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Speaker 5: They have a monster differensive line. You know, if I'm

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Speaker 5: taking a flyer on a team, that's the team I'm

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Speaker 5: taking it.

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Speaker 4: On not to win the super Bowl. They've got to

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Speaker 4: win like thirteen, probably fourteen games. You think Washington's going

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Speaker 4: to go fourteen and three? They have a real path.

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Speaker 2: I think they do. I mean, you got a deepense.

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Speaker 2: This good if they can.

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Speaker 5: I mean, like we saw how how bad they were

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Speaker 5: last year offensively, and now I mean, you you have

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Speaker 5: an average quarterback in there, you're you're in a good position.

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Speaker 2: I mean they were winning.

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Speaker 5: They were winning games last year with Dwayne Haskins, the

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Speaker 5: corpse of Alex Smith.

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Speaker 2: Alex Smith was a complete statue and then Taylor Henny.

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Speaker 5: So I just need I just need Ryanspector to give

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Speaker 5: me something, like, just give me, give me something that's fair.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, if the defense stays elite and the offense goes

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Speaker 4: from literally dead last to even average, and then if

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Speaker 4: they can get above average too, And I do like

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Speaker 4: Fitzpatrick with Turner, I think it's going to be a

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Speaker 4: really nice marriage. I think I'm excited to watch that team.

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Speaker 4: I just can't get there on the best Ruggord in

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Speaker 4: the NFL, in part because they're trying to take someone

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Speaker 4: down the list. I don't really love anyone here. I

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Speaker 4: think my next favorite would be Dallas. Actually, just if

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Speaker 4: everything breaks right, Dallas, a lot can go wrong and

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Speaker 4: has the last couple of years everything breaks right. They

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Speaker 4: were actually I think that they were my NFC Super

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Speaker 4: Bowl pick last year bops, that didn't really work out.

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Speaker 4: But if the opposite of last year happens, I think

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Speaker 4: that they could play. However, they're twenty five to one.

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Speaker 4: I'd rather just put a little more money on Green

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Speaker 4: Bay at twenty two to one. So okay, that's most ones.

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Speaker 4: Let's flip it. Let's go down to the other end

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Speaker 4: of the league. We talked with the Lions already. Let's

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Speaker 4: look at our fewest wins. So the Lions and Texans

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Speaker 4: and usually the Jets, these are the three teams we're

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Speaker 4: going to see when we're looking at the least and

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Speaker 4: all the bad things. So the Texans at MGM. That

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Speaker 4: at MGM are plus two hundred, the Lions are plus

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Speaker 4: four hundred.

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Speaker 3: So those are the two favorites.

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Speaker 4: Do we think that either of them are bad enough

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Speaker 4: to put your money in at two or four hundred?

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Speaker 5: I mean, I think these are the clear cut worst

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Speaker 5: teams in the league. For me, like I'm actually struggling

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Speaker 5: with which one is worse right now, because I just

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Speaker 5: think that the Texas, I mean, they've they destroyed this

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Speaker 5: roster and you know, without Deshaun Wacketts, I mean, and

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Speaker 5: you replace him with Tyrod Taylor, who his biggest shrimp

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Speaker 5: is his mobility and he's not even mobile anymore. So

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Speaker 5: it's just like that's a really bad team. And in

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Speaker 5: the Lions, you know this new coach, I mean, Dan Campbell,

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Speaker 5: it's just you know from the opening press conference, he's

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Speaker 5: a maniac, and it's just like I don't trust him.

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Speaker 5: You know, the Lions are so bad that you had

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Speaker 5: Matt Campbell literally passing on seventy million dollars to stay

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Speaker 5: at Iowa. I think the Lions they have a solid

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Speaker 5: offensive line, but I don't trust I don't. I don't

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Speaker 5: trust him the plays and you know, like Jerrick Off

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Speaker 5: is not the guy who you want saving him on third,

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Speaker 5: third and long, and you saw that play calling throughout

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Speaker 5: the regular season and it's just you know, run, run, pass,

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Speaker 5: And I just honestly, I'm bleeding.

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Speaker 2: On the Lions.

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Speaker 5: They have the worst have the worst record, simply because

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Speaker 5: I just think I have a summer schedule, like, I mean,

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Speaker 5: they opened up with San Francisco, Green Bay in Chicago.

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Speaker 5: And then when you look at Houston, they opened up

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Speaker 5: his three point underdogs to Jacksonville. Like as much as

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Speaker 5: it as bad as we think you Houston is, they

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Speaker 5: could easily win beam Game one. You know they can

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Speaker 5: easily win that game. I guess the Jacksonville team was

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Speaker 5: one to fifteen last year. Like, who is jackson going

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Speaker 5: to be laying three points in a row in Week one?

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Speaker 5: Where it's just like you know, Detroit, they just have

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Speaker 5: a they have a dead, a really tough schedule, and

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Speaker 5: I think that they're in a tougher division as well.

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Speaker 4: So here's the counter argument to that Houston is so

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Speaker 4: bad that they are home field goal underdogs to a

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Speaker 4: rookie quarterback making his debut as a professional. That's how

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Speaker 4: bad Houston is. Like, that's who is Jacksonville? Who is

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Speaker 4: Houston is the question? So I disagree on what you

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Speaker 4: just said. I think Houston is the clear cut worst

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Speaker 4: team in the NFL. I don't think that that's even close.

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Speaker 3: I'm doing.

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Speaker 4: I've got articles coming out this week at Action Network

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Speaker 4: ranking the overall offensive units and the defensive units. Houston's

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Speaker 4: are so bad that they not only are ranked dead last,

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Speaker 4: number thirty two in both of them. I got it

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Speaker 4: by tears and I have Houston so bad that they're

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Speaker 4: in their own tier. At them, like they're not even

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Speaker 4: in the same league. This is like a Triple A

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Speaker 4: team trying to play professional ball. Detroit is bad, but

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Speaker 4: like conventional bet I think the same about both Detroit

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Speaker 4: and the Jets. The Jets are not really in this conversation.

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Speaker 4: I like the coaching staff. I like where they're going

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Speaker 4: Zach Wilson. I like in the preseason they're making things

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Speaker 4: easier in him. They're giving him nice, easy throws. They're

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Speaker 4: not gonna be good, but I think they're going to

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Speaker 4: be one of those teams that by the end of

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Speaker 4: the season we're like, oh yeah, they're kind of moving

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Speaker 4: the right direction. The thing with the Lions to me

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Speaker 4: is that they are bad but not awful. And that's

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Speaker 4: an important distinction here, because like that's Jared Goff bad

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Speaker 4: but not awful, and they signed a bunch of dudes

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Speaker 4: and like their defense and their offense, and they're not

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Speaker 4: tragic anywhere. The Houston Texans are tragic, like they are

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Speaker 4: a Shakespearean tragedy.

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Speaker 3: It's awful.

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Speaker 4: Every position is terrible, and I think Houston has a

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Speaker 4: real threat to just like not win games. Ever, Detroit

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Speaker 4: is a sort of team like Detroit's floor is is

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Speaker 4: much higher than Houston. To me, they're a team that

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Speaker 4: like Detroit plays Chicago, absolutely they could win. Detroit plays Minnesota,

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Speaker 4: who I think is a good playoff threat. Minnesota can

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Speaker 4: definitely lose to Detroit just because, like they're not abjectly terrible,

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Speaker 4: you have to try to lose to Houston. So I

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Speaker 4: think Houston is by far the favorite here despite that

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Speaker 4: plus two hundred. This is a long time to get

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Speaker 4: my money in and wait on just a two to

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Speaker 4: one outcome, Like are the Texans so bad that thirty

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Speaker 4: three percent of the time that they're they're winning that one?

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Speaker 3: I don't know.

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Speaker 4: It might be the only thing that Texans win all season,

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Speaker 4: where you and I don't like to play futures at

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Speaker 4: short odds and get our money sitting out there for

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Speaker 4: so long. So I don't know about the plus two hundred.

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Speaker 4: So moving down the list a little bit, who do

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Speaker 4: you like in that next tier of teams?

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Speaker 3: Who else could break through out.

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Speaker 4: Of the top top ten or I guess in this

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Speaker 4: case the bottom ten someone in the like eight hundred

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Speaker 4: to twenty five hundred odds.

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Speaker 3: Anyone stand out.

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Speaker 5: I think it's the Bengals. I mean, Bengals just don't

339
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Speaker 5: have an offensive line at all. When you don't have

340
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Speaker 5: all offensive line, I think you're really going to struggle.

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Speaker 5: I mean, they have the weapons at the skilled positions,

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Speaker 5: but I'm not hearing good reports out of Can't you

343
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Speaker 5: know Joe Burrow was literally killed behind that offensive line

344
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Speaker 5: last year. I mean he made some changes on defense,

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Speaker 5: but I just I'm not high on this team at all.

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Speaker 2: They played a tough division, so I think that's so.

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Speaker 3: I can see that.

348
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Speaker 4: Here's the reason that I wouldn't bet the particular prop

349
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Speaker 4: fewest wins. Look, there's no lottery in the NFL. If

350
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Speaker 4: you have the worst record, you get the number one

351
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Speaker 4: to peck. And if you are close to getting the

352
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Speaker 4: number one pick at the end of the season, like

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Speaker 4: we've seen it every year, teams flat out tank now

354
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Speaker 4: to get that pick.

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Speaker 3: And why are you tanking? Because you need a quarterback.

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Speaker 4: The Bengals don't need the number one peck to get

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Speaker 4: a quarterback.

358
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Speaker 3: They have their quarterback.

359
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Speaker 4: It's the one thing they do have, so their incentive

360
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Speaker 4: to tank, is not going to be quite as strong

361
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Speaker 4: as a team like the Lions or like the Texas

362
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Speaker 4: where it's like, yeah, we need to start over here.

363
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Speaker 4: So I'm looking for a team that needs a quarterback.

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Speaker 4: My pick would be the Panthers at twenty five to one.

365
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Speaker 4: I don't really think Sam Donald is good, and he

366
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Speaker 4: might be. But if he's not good and he sucks,

367
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Speaker 4: like what if they just tank? And like look last

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Speaker 4: year going to the season Jacksonville and Carolina where the

369
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Speaker 4: two teams that everyone thought was going to contend for

370
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Speaker 4: the bottom pick and Jacksonville did and Caroline ended up

371
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Speaker 4: kind of being okay on offense thanks to Matt Rule

372
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Speaker 4: and Joe Brady kind of running things well. I think

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Speaker 4: Sam Donald is a big drop off from Teddy Bridgewater

374
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Speaker 4: and I don't know, I could see the bottom falling

375
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Speaker 4: out and Rule and Bradier. At least Rule is going

376
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Speaker 4: to be there a long time. He's got a big contract,

377
00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:43,960
Speaker 4: like there's a lot of security to be like, hey, look,

378
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Speaker 4: our team sucks, our roster is not there yet. Let's

379
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Speaker 4: just bottom out and get that number one to pick

380
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Speaker 4: and try to get a quarterback that.

381
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Speaker 3: Can actually play because we tried the Donald thing.

382
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Speaker 5: See like there's some sharp money, I know, some sharp

383
00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:58,280
Speaker 5: money on over seven and a half wins for the Panthers.

384
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Speaker 5: So I can't get there with you, but I understand,

385
00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:03,440
Speaker 5: and I just think Matt rule. I respect Matt rul

386
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Speaker 5: too much for them.

387
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Speaker 4: They have best press fair. I do like their defense

388
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Speaker 4: a little bit. I like some of the players there.

389
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Speaker 4: It's again just like, well, could there be a one

390
00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:13,280
Speaker 4: in twenty five chance that things just really go wrong?

391
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Speaker 4: Like I could see Carolina leaning into the it's really

392
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Speaker 4: going wrong a little easier than I can see some

393
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Speaker 4: of these other teams. So one other long shot, I

394
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Speaker 4: want to say, and then if you've got one, you

395
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Speaker 4: can add on. So here's this is going to be

396
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Speaker 4: a crazy lot. I think the Pittsburgh Steelers there's a

397
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Speaker 4: scenario where things just completely the bottom falls out, Like, look,

398
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Speaker 4: take the jerseys away and take the history away. I

399
00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:38,840
Speaker 4: know that we're just like the Pittsburgh Steelers can't possibly

400
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Speaker 4: be this bad. Mike Tomlin has literally never finished below

401
00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:44,399
Speaker 4: five hundred, and they've had what like four coaches in

402
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Speaker 4: their history. Like, it's not a team where things totally

403
00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:50,479
Speaker 4: fall off, but take away the history. You got an

404
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Speaker 4: ancient quarterback that like straight up stinks right now, like

405
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Speaker 4: Ben Roethlisberger is washed. They need to move on. They

406
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Speaker 4: got Mason Rudolph Dwayne Haskins behind him. Their O line

407
00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:04,040
Speaker 4: is terrible, like bottom three in the league. The defense

408
00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:07,480
Speaker 4: was great last year, but lost some key guys. Bud

409
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Speaker 4: Dupree is gone, they lost two of their top three corners.

410
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Speaker 4: They're still good. I mean, if Fitzpatrick is good, Tga

411
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Speaker 4: Watt is good. I just feel like one injury to

412
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Speaker 4: Fitzpatrick or Watt something where the defense only slips back

413
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Speaker 4: to like twelfth best instead of second best, and now

414
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Speaker 4: the offense can move the ball. Anyways, I got to

415
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Speaker 4: see the bottom really falling out there, and they got

416
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Speaker 4: to play Cleveland and Baltimore twice each. They need the quarterback.

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Speaker 4: There'd be tank incentive of all teams. Pittsburgh, with all

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Speaker 4: their history, you could say, Okay, for one year, we're

419
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Speaker 4: going to be terrible. We're going to do the Colts

420
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Speaker 4: thing and go get er luck for one year, and

421
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Speaker 4: then we'll be back again fifty to one.

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Speaker 3: Am I crazy?

423
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Speaker 2: Oh, You're not crazy at all.

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Speaker 5: Actually, I mean I think this is the best thing

425
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Speaker 5: that any of us has said on this podcast to

426
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Speaker 5: this point, and I just think they're in a really

427
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Speaker 5: tough division. You know how I feel about the Browns.

428
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Speaker 5: I know how you feel about the The only thing

429
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Speaker 5: that's keeping me out of it is the fact that

430
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Speaker 5: the Bengals are in a division. And I do think

431
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Speaker 5: the Stills are gonna have Their defense is gonna be good.

432
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Speaker 3: Enough, you know, and does put a floor on there?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so it's just like that, the floor is there.

434
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Speaker 5: But besides that, I'm not mad at the Flyer. I mean,

435
00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:18,480
Speaker 5: they played ball. They open up at Buffalo, they doin't

436
00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:20,320
Speaker 5: got to go. They didn't play Las Vegas at home.

437
00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:23,040
Speaker 5: They got SENCID, they got Green Bay, they got Denver.

438
00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:26,440
Speaker 5: I mean they can they can start this thing off

439
00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:27,080
Speaker 5: pretty rough.

440
00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:30,119
Speaker 4: So yeah, any a long shots for you before you

441
00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:30,440
Speaker 4: move on?

442
00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:32,199
Speaker 2: Nah, no long shots for me.

443
00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:38,520
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464
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465
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466
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Speaker 1: hundred five two to two forty seven hundred in Colorado

467
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468
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469
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470
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Speaker 1: seven in Michigan, one eight hundred eight eight nine nine

471
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Speaker 1: seven eight nine in Tennessee. One eight hundred bets off

472
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:03,280
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473
00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:06,440
Speaker 1: five hundred in Virginia. That's think not available in Nevada.

474
00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:09,040
Speaker 1: Thanks so much for listening. Let's get back to the show.

475
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:13,080
Speaker 4: Okay, all right, so let's move on to points scored.

476
00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 3: Same thing.

477
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:16,520
Speaker 4: We're gonna do most points and least points scored. So

478
00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:19,159
Speaker 4: what's interesting here on both of these is that the

479
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 4: odds boards look basically the same as most wins. And

480
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:24,520
Speaker 4: I think that's a mistake because just because you're winning

481
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:26,639
Speaker 4: doesn't mean that you are scoring the most points. Just

482
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 4: because you're losing doesn't mean you're not scoring. So to me,

483
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:32,119
Speaker 4: that means there could be some value here. So the

484
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:36,040
Speaker 4: Chiefs are favorites. Should we bet the Chiefs to score

485
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:38,720
Speaker 4: the most points? Patrick Mahomes is really good? Tyreek Hill

486
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:40,480
Speaker 4: is really good? Should we about the Chiefs?

487
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 2: Oh?

488
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:44,200
Speaker 5: For me, I mean when you look at the Chiefs,

489
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,200
Speaker 5: I mean they're always gonna be a hot, flying offense.

490
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:49,959
Speaker 5: You got Andy Reed, got Eric being in me. So

491
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:52,800
Speaker 5: I can't argue with that like, I can't argue, Like

492
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:55,440
Speaker 5: there's no other case for another team that I would

493
00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:59,000
Speaker 5: argue for as far as like scoring the most points,

494
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:01,679
Speaker 5: I think I would roll with them, or you know.

495
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:02,520
Speaker 2: I would roll with Buffalo.

496
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 5: I think Buffalo they really weren't a great running team.

497
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:07,400
Speaker 5: They're passing the ball, Like I think, when you look

498
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 5: at this, you want a team who could just pass

499
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:11,840
Speaker 5: them pass as efficiently as possible. So I think i'd

500
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:13,879
Speaker 5: probably go with those two teams. I still think a

501
00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:16,720
Speaker 5: Rogers can't play nearly as well as to play last year. Actually,

502
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 5: I would go with the Cowboys at plus sixteen hundred.

503
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:21,720
Speaker 2: They don't have a great defense. I think that's the

504
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:22,359
Speaker 2: team to go with.

505
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:27,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm on Dallas too at sixteen hundred. Their defense

506
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 4: is bad, so they're going to have to keep scoring

507
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:31,879
Speaker 4: just to try to keep up. Dallas has a super

508
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:36,000
Speaker 4: soft schedule. They have a pretty winnable division. Even if

509
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,240
Speaker 4: you like Washington a lot, Philadelphia and the Giants are

510
00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:42,440
Speaker 4: definitely pretty easy. Another thing too, that's a little hidden,

511
00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:45,320
Speaker 4: but it is important here. Dallas played at the fastest

512
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 4: tempo in the league last year, so they're getting more snaps,

513
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:51,720
Speaker 4: they're getting more plays like early last season, Dak Prescott

514
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:54,480
Speaker 4: was on pace to throw for sixty seven hundred yards

515
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 4: through four games. And that wasn't necessarily because Dallas's offense

516
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 4: was so efficient that he was playing incredible. It's because

517
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 4: they were playing so fast and getting so many points

518
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 4: up that you're getting these track meet games every week.

519
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:11,159
Speaker 4: So I love Dallas for this one sixteen hundred. I

520
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 4: got to I'm not getting my money on.

521
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,359
Speaker 3: On the Chiefs. I know that we just assume the

522
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:16,119
Speaker 3: Chiefs are awesome.

523
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 4: They're gonna you know, they're gonna be near the top

524
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,080
Speaker 4: in DVOA and all that kind of ratings.

525
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:20,920
Speaker 3: Here's the thing.

526
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 4: The Chiefs last two seasons finished seventh and fifth in

527
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:27,960
Speaker 4: points per game, even as good as they were, even

528
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:33,160
Speaker 4: winning fourteen and thirteen games those seasons. In fact, the Ravens, Saints,

529
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:36,359
Speaker 4: and Bucks all three outscored the Chiefs both of the

530
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 4: last two years. So I am not getting my money

531
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:39,919
Speaker 4: on in the Chiefs.

532
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:40,160
Speaker 2: Here.

533
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:43,439
Speaker 4: I actually thought about the Ravens a little bit, but

534
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:46,680
Speaker 4: the odds aren't really tasty enough for me. A little

535
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 4: further down the board, I was trying to find if

536
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:51,680
Speaker 4: there's any sort of long shot. I try to think

537
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:55,439
Speaker 4: about the Cardinals. They're another team that plays fast. I

538
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 4: looked at the Falcons. Arizona's at twenty five to one,

539
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 4: Atlanta's at twenty eight to one. They've got Arthur Smith

540
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 4: now on a lot of weapons. The thing is, you

541
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 4: if you look at who are the top points per

542
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,360
Speaker 4: game leaders, it's it's a good team. And I don't

543
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 4: think Arizona and Atlanta me be a good team. So

544
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 4: the only other one that I could maybe talk myself

545
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:17,879
Speaker 4: into is the Los Angeles Chargers at twenty to one.

546
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 4: So when Herbert played last year, they averaged twenty four

547
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:22,200
Speaker 4: and a half points a game. They probably need to

548
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 4: add about a touchdown a game, but Joe Lombardi is

549
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:27,280
Speaker 4: there now to run the offense. The old line is

550
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 4: way better. The special teams literally can't be worse than

551
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 4: it was last year. They did play the Chiefs twice.

552
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:34,879
Speaker 4: They coud to play the Raiders twice. That's good for

553
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 4: the scheduling. To me, the Chargers probably get more like

554
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,639
Speaker 4: to top five than winning it, but I could see a

555
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 4: path for them.

556
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 3: What do you think without that one?

557
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 2: I do like the Chargers.

558
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:47,120
Speaker 5: I think I think another one is, you know the Titans.

559
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 5: I mean, I know want to Smith left the Titans,

560
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:52,720
Speaker 5: but for whatever reason they were the Titans. We're able

561
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:54,679
Speaker 5: to unlock something with Ryan Tannehill.

562
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 2: They got a j. Brown, they got Julio Jones.

563
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 5: I mean, I think this is prolific passing offense and

564
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 5: I don't know how it's going to slow down because

565
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:08,199
Speaker 5: for whatever reason, Mike Brabel was hired to be a

566
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 5: defensive coach and they's still not a good defense.

567
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,160
Speaker 2: So this team has to score point in order to win.

568
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,159
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I'm not big on Tennessee, but they've definitely

569
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 4: been scoring a lot of points. I can see that one.

570
00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:22,440
Speaker 4: We'd be remiss not to mention Tampa Bay. To me,

571
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 4: Tampa is the team that should be the favorite here,

572
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 4: their second favorite.

573
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 3: At eight to one.

574
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 4: Tampa the second half of last season was a number

575
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 4: one offense, and they're playing a lot faster too.

576
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 3: Tom Brady got to do Brady ball after that.

577
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:38,359
Speaker 4: I'm seeing reports that Antonio Brown is looking like old

578
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 4: Antonio Brown, which is absolutely terrifying. If you get to

579
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 4: add like the best receiver of our generation just as

580
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 4: a third receiver in case you feel like it. They

581
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 4: added Giovanni Bernard, who I think is gonna be a

582
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,199
Speaker 4: very Tom Brady running back. I think they could get

583
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 4: a lot of points. They also have depending on where

584
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:57,159
Speaker 4: you look. The number one easiest schedule in the NFL.

585
00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:58,200
Speaker 3: What are we doing?

586
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:00,240
Speaker 4: This is the best team in the league, that's Super

587
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 4: Bowl champions, and we give them the easiest schedule. So

588
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 4: I don't know, I can see them get there. I

589
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 4: don't know about eight to one, but they would be

590
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,639
Speaker 4: my favorite if I had to pick someone. All right,

591
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 4: let's let's flip it, flip it again. Least points scored.

592
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 4: So again, Texans, Lions, and Jets are the three that

593
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 4: come out, you know, with the highest odds here, they're

594
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 4: the favorites. Any and one of those three stick out

595
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 4: to you for a least points scored.

596
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 5: The one thing I will tell you is that the

597
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 5: Jets shouldn't be on this list. I think it's a

598
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 5: little disrespectful, you know, from what we're seeing during preseason.

599
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 5: I mean, Zach Wilson looks really, really good. This Jets

600
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 5: offense is going to be It's gonna be a lot

601
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 5: better than what people think. So I mean, if you're

602
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,159
Speaker 5: looking at fantasy options, I think I would look.

603
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:41,639
Speaker 2: To their offense.

604
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 5: I mean honestly, so, I just think it's a little

605
00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 5: bit disrespectful to put them on on the list. I

606
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:48,119
Speaker 5: think the Texans, I mean, who did he even have

607
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:50,400
Speaker 5: from a fantasy perspective.

608
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:53,920
Speaker 3: I mean running backs, I don't want I.

609
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 5: Mean you got the you got the corpse of David Johnson.

610
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 5: I mean you got Brandon Cooks, Nico Collins, who might

611
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:02,199
Speaker 5: be a sleeper tyrd. I think that's who's probably going

612
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 5: to score the least amount of points. I think the

613
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 5: interesting thing is is that if a team's gonna get

614
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 5: glown out, they have opportunities.

615
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 2: To score more. Rather, they're going to be more garbage.

616
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 3: So that's the probably Yeah, that's to me.

617
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:18,639
Speaker 4: That was my problem with Houston is that they have

618
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:21,160
Speaker 4: a soft division. Like they get to play the Titans

619
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 4: defense twice, they get to play the Jaguars defense twice.

620
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:26,440
Speaker 4: These aren't the absolute worst in the league. They don't

621
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 4: get to play themselves. Unfortunately, they must be lighting it

622
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:31,639
Speaker 4: up in practice when they play their non defense. But

623
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:34,399
Speaker 4: between the soft schedule and the fact that I expect

624
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,520
Speaker 4: them to just literally always be behind, I just feel

625
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 4: like that could be a danger that they're just going

626
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:40,920
Speaker 4: to keep on chucking it and like, what do.

627
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 3: They have to lose? So they would be the favorite.

628
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 4: To me, The reason I think the Jets are on

629
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:47,919
Speaker 4: the list is because the Jets have to be on

630
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 4: the list from the last two years. They average fifteen

631
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:52,919
Speaker 4: point two points a game last season, which was lowest

632
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:53,439
Speaker 4: in the league.

633
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:56,399
Speaker 3: That's awful. Fifteen points a game is so bad.

634
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 4: The previous season they were as seventeen a game, which

635
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 4: was the second low in the league. So just history

636
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 4: alone makes them in this list. But I agree I

637
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:07,119
Speaker 4: wouldn't bet them. I think they'll be a little better.

638
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:10,119
Speaker 4: I try to think of Okay, so who are the

639
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 4: teams that might might win some games even though they

640
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 4: don't score much? So I'm looking for if I want

641
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 4: a longer shot. Here for me is competent defensively, maybe

642
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:23,480
Speaker 4: even kind of good defensively, but just has nothing left

643
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:27,160
Speaker 4: on offense. So here we are again, Pittsburgh Steelers. Gonna

644
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:30,359
Speaker 4: make a lot of friends day with Steeler Nation twenty

645
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:33,440
Speaker 4: five to one on the Steelers. The defense is good

646
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 4: enough to keep them in games, and we've talked with

647
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:40,280
Speaker 4: Matt Moore about this on our other podcast for Buckets

648
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 4: of Denver. We both like Denver, but I could see

649
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh being a little like Denver where teams treat them

650
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 4: with kid gloves or they're like, look, we know we're

651
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:50,520
Speaker 4: not going to score a lot of points on you.

652
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 4: We're just gonna grind out a win because your offense

653
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 4: can't do anything.

654
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 3: We don't respect your ability to put up any points.

655
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 4: We only need seventeen points to beat you, and just

656
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 4: kind of do this slow, grind out win thing. Even

657
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 4: like Baltimore and Cleveland, that sort of fits right into

658
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 4: how both of those teams want to play anyway. And

659
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 4: then I can see Pittsburgh just getting like a six

660
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 4: point game and just just doing nothing. So how do

661
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:14,920
Speaker 4: you feel about Pittsburgh for this one?

662
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:18,080
Speaker 5: I actually like it. I mean I mean like I'm

663
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 5: not met it there at all. I think this is

664
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 5: like the fate Pittsburgh train today.

665
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 2: So I'm I'm rolling with you.

666
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 3: All right.

667
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 4: Well, let's actually talk a little bit about defense here,

668
00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 4: so we can also play fewest points conceded, So this

669
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 4: is where we want to highlight the defense. So before

670
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 4: we look at actually a fewest points, I'm just curious

671
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 4: for you, who do you look at and say, Okay,

672
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 4: coming into the season, this is my best defense or

673
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 4: who are your top two or three defenses in the

674
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 4: NFL right now?

675
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 5: I think, you know, for me, it's the Washington Football team,

676
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 5: It's the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

677
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 2: And then.

678
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 5: I'm kind of leaning towards, you know, the Denver Broncos.

679
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 5: A lot of people still have the Rams, but the

680
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 5: Rams just don't have a lot of death to me.

681
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 5: And I think, you know, losing brain is staily, That's

682
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 5: that's just I'm not really a big fan of, you know,

683
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 5: teams that lose cordiers.

684
00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 2: I like Raheem Moorean Morris.

685
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,120
Speaker 5: I think he's going to be, you know, a good replacement,

686
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 5: but them not having to death. It's just it's just

687
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:13,480
Speaker 5: they lose one or two guys and you know, just

688
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 5: anything to happen.

689
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 2: But I'm looking at the.

690
00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 5: Washington Football tam Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they have you know,

691
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 5: prolific defensive lines. And then you know, looking to Washington

692
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:23,160
Speaker 5: Football team, they they had William Jackson replaced that Ronald Garvey.

693
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 5: Jammin Davis is going to be postering that linebacker corp.

694
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 5: I mean the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, I mean it speaks

695
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 5: for herself. We saw what they did to Patrick Mahomes

696
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 5: in the Super Bowl. That's going to continue. They still

697
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 5: have a dangerous defensive line and how many different roncos.

698
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:38,360
Speaker 2: I mean, they get.

699
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 5: All the guys back, you know, Herb von Miller, Bradley,

700
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 5: Chuck Chubb, still got Bryce Conna Callahan the rookie and

701
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 5: Patrick Stain.

702
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 4: So yeah, so Denver is my number one defense. I

703
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 4: mentioned my defensive rankings coming out. I got Denver in

704
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 4: Minnesota in the top two tier on their own. And

705
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 4: I got to tell you I am not a Vikings homer,

706
00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 4: like I'm a I'm a sports nihilist, assume the worst.

707
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 4: I think the Vikings are really good defensively. They were

708
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 4: awful last year, but they rebuilt the whole defensive line

709
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:09,960
Speaker 4: and the entire cornerback unit, and I think both areas

710
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 4: are going to be a huge upgrade. Like with Fangio,

711
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 4: Mike Zimmer's defense just knows how to do it. Before

712
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:18,640
Speaker 4: last year and the bottom fell out, the Vikings defense

713
00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:22,040
Speaker 4: had been top four DVOA in three straight seasons. So

714
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 4: I have Denver in Minnesota and a tier by themselves,

715
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 4: and then Washington, Tampa and a few other teams after that.

716
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 4: So my question is is when you look at a

717
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:33,880
Speaker 4: team to play for this one, then who's your pick.

718
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 4: Is it one of those teams that you think is

719
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 4: the best, or is there a different factor that you're

720
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 4: playing for fewest points conceded.

721
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 2: I think you have to book at the schedule.

722
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 5: I mean, obviously, Washington plays the NFC East. Denver is

723
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:49,480
Speaker 5: going to play Patrick Mahomes twice. Now I know Washington,

724
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 5: you know they have some tough games on it. They

725
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 5: have Green Bay and actually they played Kansas City. Well,

726
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 5: I mean, when you're playing Philadelphia and New York and

727
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 5: you're playing them four times, you're a Giants don't have

728
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 5: all of its line. So it's just I do think

729
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 5: you have got to look at the schedule. But then

730
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 5: Tampa Bay, they're playing the NFC South. I mean, do

731
00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 5: we expect the Saints to put up a ton of

732
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 5: points this year? I mean you talked about going under

733
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 5: on Caroline. I mean, are respecting them to put up

734
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:18,640
Speaker 5: too many points for Sam Darnold? I mean you look

735
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 5: at the Falcons. I mean, yeah, I don't know, I

736
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 5: don't know how prolific their offense is going to be.

737
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,960
Speaker 5: So I think for this problem, you kind of got

738
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:29,600
Speaker 5: to go with a combination between the best defense and

739
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 5: the schedule.

740
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 4: So I actually like the favorite on this one, which

741
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 4: surprised me to get there. So the favorite is Baltimore

742
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 4: Ravens at plus eight hundred. Baltimore finished second in points

743
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 4: per game allowed last year and third the year before.

744
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 4: I don't we neither one of us listed Baltimore as

745
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 4: in that top top tier of defenses, but we know

746
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 4: they're gonna be good week. Martin Dale always gets a

747
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 4: good defense out there. They got a lot of talent

748
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 4: on the field. I think they have maybe the best

749
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 4: cornerback unit in football, which helps in this case because

750
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:00,480
Speaker 4: they're probably not going to get lit up for a

751
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:03,320
Speaker 4: huge number someday from just like a team that shreds

752
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 4: them well until they play the Chiefs because Patrick Holmes

753
00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 4: just owns them. But the other thing that they have

754
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 4: going for them is that Baltimore plays a slow pace.

755
00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 4: They just love to slow it down. They take a

756
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 4: lot of time in between plays. They run the ball

757
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 4: a lot, so you get fewer possessions, So I like

758
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:23,400
Speaker 4: the style of play factor there. Their schedule also helps.

759
00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:25,920
Speaker 4: They get to play Denver, they get to play early

760
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 4: against Indianapolis, They play the NFC North, which we're saying

761
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 4: it looks a little bit weaker. So I like Baltimore.

762
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 4: The other one that I might nibble a little bit

763
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 4: is Buffalo at twenty five to one. Bills used to

764
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 4: be a really strong defense and then that kind of

765
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 4: wasn't the thing last year. But I think McDermott and

766
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 4: Leslie Frasier get the best out of guys. The pass

767
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:47,880
Speaker 4: rush is kind of a committee thing, but it gets

768
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 4: the job done. And the main thing with Buffalo is

769
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 4: I just think they might end up playing the softest

770
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 4: division offenses. The Jets, the Dolphins, and the Patriots to me,

771
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 4: all could end up bottom ten offenses and that's six

772
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 4: games was where they just might not get a lot

773
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:04,440
Speaker 4: of points put up on them at So twenty five

774
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 4: to one Buffalo would be a team that I might

775
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:08,800
Speaker 4: sprinkle a little bit on. All Right, we got a

776
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:10,880
Speaker 4: few more here and then we'll wrap it up for y'all.

777
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 5: So one thing I'll say, I think, you know, you

778
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 5: made a good point about the pace, and I think

779
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:17,880
Speaker 5: Cleveland is up there as well. I mean, they're going

780
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 5: to run the ball a ton, you know, and I

781
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 5: think their defense is going to be better, and I

782
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:24,640
Speaker 5: think there's a reason why you know they're the four

783
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:26,240
Speaker 5: favorite at plus fourteen hundred.

784
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 2: I think that's team that I would probably look at

785
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:28,439
Speaker 2: as well.

786
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like that too.

787
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 4: I'm kind of at a point where I might need

788
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 4: to see it before I believe it with the Cleveland defense,

789
00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:37,880
Speaker 4: just that it looks so good on paper, but I

790
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:40,200
Speaker 4: might need to see it actually happen and just pay

791
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:41,279
Speaker 4: it down when it gets there.

792
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:44,279
Speaker 5: And then you know what underrated think about? This is

793
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:47,920
Speaker 5: also the weather. Like I mean, Cleveland last year they

794
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 5: were like they probably were snake bit and bottle weather

795
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:54,280
Speaker 5: more than any team in the NFL. Last year, they

796
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:57,279
Speaker 5: played like seven games where there will just rain and win.

797
00:34:57,880 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 5: And I mean, I know you can expect that in

798
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:01,959
Speaker 5: Cleveland from time to time, but they got hit harder

799
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 5: than any other team I've seen a recent memory last year.

800
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 2: That's a big reason why the Sharks were so on

801
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:06,879
Speaker 2: them this year.

802
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:10,200
Speaker 4: I agree, All right, let's go lightning around through these

803
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 4: last ones here, and let's just each give our one

804
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 4: pick for it and give a quick reason for it.

805
00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 4: So we bet on last winless team. So this is

806
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:21,359
Speaker 4: not necessarily about who's bad, but who's bad and has

807
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 4: that wrong schedule coming out of the gates. So give

808
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:25,840
Speaker 4: me your pick for a last winless team.

809
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm going with Detroit.

810
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:31,520
Speaker 5: I mean, I got San Francisco Green, They Baltimore at

811
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:36,520
Speaker 5: Chicago at Minnesota. You know, their first win might come

812
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:38,759
Speaker 5: against Cincinnati, and if they don't win against Cincinnati, then

813
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:40,640
Speaker 5: they got the Rams Philadelphia, and then they got a boy.

814
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 2: I'm going with Detroit. I just I don't trust this

815
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:43,960
Speaker 2: team at all.

816
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:46,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, and even after the bye at Pittsburgh got Cleveland.

817
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 4: So if they don't steal, if they don't get that

818
00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:52,799
Speaker 4: home game against Cincinnati, or steal somewhere along the way,

819
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:56,239
Speaker 4: like they're the favorite here rather than Houston. But that

820
00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 4: makes sense because Houston plays Jacksonville in Week one at

821
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:01,839
Speaker 4: home and they played Carolina week three at home. Those

822
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 4: are both risks for Houston to get one of those wins.

823
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 4: If they don't, if Houston escapes at oh and three,

824
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 4: then it gets ugly and and Houston maybe he wins

825
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:13,480
Speaker 4: this one. I'm taking a longer shot here. I'm going

826
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 4: with Arizona. We both hate Arizona, we hate pay So

827
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:23,600
Speaker 4: here's the opening schedule. Tennessee Minnesota at Jacksonville Rams forty

828
00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 4: nine ers Browns and then they play Houston, and that

829
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:28,959
Speaker 4: could be one of those where it's like we're playing

830
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:31,400
Speaker 4: for the title here that they're both owen six and

831
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 4: we're playing to see who wins. But Arizona's at thirty

832
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:37,720
Speaker 4: five to one. I just feel like this is a team.

833
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 4: The offense is probably too good to just go over

834
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 4: for too long. But at thirty five to one, if

835
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:46,840
Speaker 4: things fall apart, and I just it wouldn't surprise me

836
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 4: at all to be like it's October first, the Cardinals

837
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:52,320
Speaker 4: are zero and four and Cliff just got his walking papers.

838
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 4: That's just too easy for me to see happen.

839
00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:56,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that as well.

840
00:36:57,239 --> 00:37:01,080
Speaker 4: So opposite side, last unbeaten team, same thing, schedule play

841
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:03,319
Speaker 4: of course, who's your last unbeaten team?

842
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 3: Pick?

843
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:07,839
Speaker 5: Okay, last un beating team I'm gonna go with. I'm

844
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 5: gonna go with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I think the

845
00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:10,280
Speaker 5: Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

846
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:11,479
Speaker 2: I mean, they got Dallas.

847
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 5: They should be able to beat Dallas, you know, with

848
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 5: Dak first coming off of this injury. They got Atlanta.

849
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:18,640
Speaker 5: I'm not really they high on Atlanta. I just think

850
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:22,480
Speaker 5: they come out rolling. I mean Tom Brady. You know,

851
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:24,560
Speaker 5: he had his first year in system last year, so

852
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 5: they started off slow. I don't think they start off slow.

853
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 5: I think, if anything, they start off really hot and

854
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 5: then maybe age catches up to Tom Brady later on

855
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:32,600
Speaker 5: the year.

856
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 2: Everybody gets some injuries, but I'm gonna go with the Bucks.

857
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 4: So I don't love the Bucks here just because Tom

858
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:42,680
Speaker 4: Brady September is his least winning est month, they tend

859
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 4: to kind of start slow. Ironically enough, I think that

860
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 4: my pick here would actually be the team Tom Brady

861
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 4: is playing in the Week one, the Dallas Cowboys. And

862
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 4: it's tough because Dallas starts at Tampa at the Chargers,

863
00:37:57,000 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 4: and I love both of those teams, and I like

864
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:00,440
Speaker 4: Dallas a lot.

865
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 3: That's two very.

866
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:05,640
Speaker 4: Easy, easily losable games, But if they survive, then the

867
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 4: schedule opens up. They're home for a month straight. They

868
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:11,560
Speaker 4: play the Eagles, Panthers, Giants, then at New England, who

869
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 4: I'm not super afraid of this year, then a.

870
00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:14,880
Speaker 3: Bye week, and the bye week counts.

871
00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 4: They're still unbeaten during the bye week, and then Minnesota, Denver,

872
00:38:18,200 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 4: Atlanta after that, so they can get through those first

873
00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 4: two games, which they can, they're good enough and talent

874
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:27,520
Speaker 4: enough to win, then things could really open up. And

875
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:31,360
Speaker 4: you know, suddenly suddenly we're tuning into NFL Live and

876
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 4: Mini Kandas talking about the nine to oho Dallas Cowboys,

877
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 4: America's team and your Dak Prescott MVP pick is like

878
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 4: looking baller and I don't know, I could see I

879
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 4: could see the scenario. The other one that I try

880
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 4: to talk myself into and can't quite get there the

881
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 4: Denver Broncos.

882
00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 3: Here's the schedule. They start with the.

883
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:55,759
Speaker 4: Giants, Jaguars, Jets, so that is very winnable. Then they

884
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 4: play the Ravens. That's a winnable game in that it

885
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:01,440
Speaker 4: could just be one of those ugly scoring defensive games,

886
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 4: and they like win by field goal. Pittsburgh the next week,

887
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:07,759
Speaker 4: same thing, and then they play Vegas. Suddenly they're six

888
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:10,640
Speaker 4: and oh. Then Cleveland. That's another one where it's you know,

889
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:12,800
Speaker 4: they're the underdog, but maybe not if they're six to no.

890
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:15,279
Speaker 4: Then Washington, Dallas, Philly.

891
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 3: It's crazy. Here's the thing, Denver's off the books.

892
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,800
Speaker 4: They're the only team that literally has no odds posted

893
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:23,680
Speaker 4: for this right now. I can't figure out why I

894
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:25,560
Speaker 4: think they're on to me, so can't play Denver.

895
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:28,399
Speaker 2: I mean, I hear you there.

896
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:31,160
Speaker 5: I still can't believe that you think you're willing to

897
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:33,319
Speaker 5: bet on Mike McCarthy to lead a team to the

898
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:33,920
Speaker 5: best record.

899
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:35,799
Speaker 3: I'm willing to.

900
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:37,960
Speaker 4: Bet on Dak Prescott to lead a team with the

901
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:40,560
Speaker 4: best record, and only for the first start of the season.

902
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:41,359
Speaker 2: Ok.

903
00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:43,840
Speaker 4: All right, so I know your answer to this already.

904
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 4: But for the listeners, look, some books love to offer

905
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 4: will a team go seventeen and O or will a

906
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:51,880
Speaker 4: team go zher in seventeen? This is not gonna take

907
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:53,799
Speaker 4: us very long. Where he will they need a team

908
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 4: go seventeen to oh row in seventeen.

909
00:39:57,040 --> 00:39:59,879
Speaker 5: I'm gonna say, no, team's gonna go seventeen and oh.

910
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 5: But I do think it's probably worth a flyer to

911
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 5: throw put money on seventeen.

912
00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 4: Okay, tell you if you had a bout one, you

913
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 4: would bet in seventeen before seventeen and oh oh.

914
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:17,239
Speaker 2: Without a doubt. I mean we we just abated the

915
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 2: Texas an Alliance earlier this year.

916
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 5: Like, I mean you you just told me that a

917
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:23,480
Speaker 5: team would have to try to lose.

918
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:23,759
Speaker 2: To the text.

919
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:27,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I agree. I agree with what you're saying.

920
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 4: You you don't accidentally win football games like you you

921
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 4: can easily just lose because you're bad. It's much easier

922
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:39,880
Speaker 4: to lose seventeen times than win seventeen times, right.

923
00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:41,000
Speaker 3: You can just be terryfuted.

924
00:40:41,120 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 4: All it takes is one off day to have your

925
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:44,479
Speaker 4: seventeen and oh go bad.

926
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:46,239
Speaker 3: Here here's some math for you.

927
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:48,960
Speaker 4: If you are an eighty percent favorite to win a

928
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 4: football game, you have to be an eighty percent favorite

929
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:55,840
Speaker 4: seventeen times in a row to go undefeated, and that

930
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:57,560
Speaker 4: would give you about a five and a half percent

931
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:00,480
Speaker 4: chance of that happening, which is eighteen to one, and

932
00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:02,760
Speaker 4: at BETMGM you have to do twenty to one odds.

933
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:03,080
Speaker 3: To play this.

934
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:07,720
Speaker 4: Guess what, very rarely ever is a team eighty percent

935
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:09,560
Speaker 4: of favorite in a football game, and you have to

936
00:41:09,600 --> 00:41:12,919
Speaker 4: do that all seventeen times and then win all of them.

937
00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:14,080
Speaker 3: So don't play that.

938
00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 4: I would put that more realistically, something like two hundred

939
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 4: to one, not twenty to one.

940
00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:20,240
Speaker 3: So stay away.

941
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:23,360
Speaker 4: As far as losing, I would put that you have

942
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:25,160
Speaker 4: a little more control. You can just be bad and

943
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:27,919
Speaker 4: you can tank toward the end. But there's still gonna

944
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:29,839
Speaker 4: be a couple games out there. You might accidentally win

945
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 4: or can of be in the mix four. I put

946
00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 4: that closer like one hundred and twenty to one. But

947
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:38,239
Speaker 4: at BETMGM, you're playing paying eleven to one. Please, listeners,

948
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:42,759
Speaker 4: save your money, go invest it, go buy some bitcoin,

949
00:41:43,080 --> 00:41:45,799
Speaker 4: play some of our other props. Don't play these two

950
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:49,239
Speaker 4: teams barely ever. Go to seventeen or seventeen and now

951
00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:52,160
Speaker 4: right last one. We'll get you out of here. We're

952
00:41:52,200 --> 00:41:55,680
Speaker 4: looking for a wild card teams. I want one AFC

953
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 4: wild card pick in one NFC wildcard pick. So let's

954
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:02,799
Speaker 4: start with AFC rahiim, who is your pick to be

955
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:04,200
Speaker 4: an AFC wildcard?

956
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:08,920
Speaker 5: I'm going with you said one, I'm gonna go with

957
00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:10,560
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go with the Ravens.

958
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:11,359
Speaker 2: I'm gonna with the Ravens.

959
00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:14,680
Speaker 5: I think they're good enough to make the wildcard. I

960
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:16,960
Speaker 5: just think the Brown's gonna win a division. So that's

961
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:17,839
Speaker 5: the team I'm going with.

962
00:42:19,440 --> 00:42:22,319
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like the Ravens. I like the Browns. I

963
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 4: don't know which one of them is going to win

964
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:27,359
Speaker 4: the division. And the problem with betting wildcard is you

965
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:30,480
Speaker 4: might lose by them being too good and you're kind

966
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:34,040
Speaker 4: of pigeonholing yourself. So I need a team that is good,

967
00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 4: that I'm confident will be good, but also that I'm

968
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:38,840
Speaker 4: confident won't win the division because that ruins it. So

969
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:41,200
Speaker 4: I'm looking to the AFCU West, where I think the

970
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:44,840
Speaker 4: Chiefs are the most likely division winner. Problem still is,

971
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:47,480
Speaker 4: I like the Chargers and the Broncos this year, I'm

972
00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:50,759
Speaker 4: gonna pick the Chargers here. They're at plus two ten.

973
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:53,600
Speaker 4: I just like a lot about the Chargers. I like

974
00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:57,040
Speaker 4: the coaching changes. Brandon Staley is gonna do a lot there.

975
00:42:57,440 --> 00:43:01,000
Speaker 4: The offensive line is a huge improvement. The special teams

976
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:04,480
Speaker 4: was like historically bad and dead last last year, so

977
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 4: even improving to average this year is worth like a

978
00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 4: whole win to the team.

979
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:09,200
Speaker 3: Probably.

980
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:11,920
Speaker 4: There's just a lot of low hanging fruit in addition

981
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:14,360
Speaker 4: to Justin Herbert and all the other things we like

982
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:17,359
Speaker 4: about them. So I just I like the Chargers a lot.

983
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:20,480
Speaker 4: At plus two ten, they would be my pick. All

984
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:23,319
Speaker 4: right over to the NFC one pick. Who's your one

985
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:25,799
Speaker 4: pick in the NFC to take a wildcard? Our last

986
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:27,040
Speaker 4: one for the DIY, I.

987
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 5: Think it plus the reten I like the Minnesota Vikings.

988
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:31,279
Speaker 5: I think you know, Packers are obviously the favorite in

989
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:31,800
Speaker 5: that division.

990
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 2: But I think the Vikers have a solid offense.

991
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:35,759
Speaker 5: They could run the ball, they could you know, they

992
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:38,480
Speaker 5: have a great defense. You know, Justin Jefferson is out

993
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 5: there wide receiver Adam Feelen.

994
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:43,440
Speaker 2: I think he would enough to get into the wildcard.

995
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:46,399
Speaker 4: I'm glad you picked them because I had two here

996
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:48,480
Speaker 4: and I was that was one of mine, and I wasn't.

997
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:49,360
Speaker 3: Sure which one I was going to do.

998
00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:52,719
Speaker 4: This is a classic Vikings like ten and six or

999
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 4: whatever the stupid record will be now with a seventeen

1000
00:43:55,120 --> 00:43:58,120
Speaker 4: game schedule like this is a classic Vikings win, a

1001
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:00,719
Speaker 4: bunch of games, get blown out the only three that

1002
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:03,000
Speaker 4: actually matter, and then like lose by twenty in the

1003
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 4: playoffs while we all go cry in the snow in January,

1004
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:07,360
Speaker 4: like I know what this team is.

1005
00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:10,560
Speaker 3: This is what's happening. High floor, low ceiling. Slot them in.

1006
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:13,479
Speaker 4: My play is the same sort of thing, a little

1007
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:17,239
Speaker 4: higher ceiling. But I like the Seattle Seahawks to get

1008
00:44:17,239 --> 00:44:21,719
Speaker 4: the wild card. The reason being Seattle always wins enough

1009
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 4: to get into the playoffs or at least be in there.

1010
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:27,080
Speaker 4: Russell Wilson averages ten point nine wins the season. He's

1011
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:29,959
Speaker 4: won at least nine every single season so they're gonna

1012
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 4: be in the mix. But I like the forty nine

1013
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:33,839
Speaker 4: ers a lot. I like the Rams a lot, and

1014
00:44:34,040 --> 00:44:37,160
Speaker 4: I don't love the rest of Seattle outside of Russell Wilson.

1015
00:44:37,600 --> 00:44:41,480
Speaker 4: The secondary is real bad. It's a tough division, tough schedule.

1016
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 4: I feel like Seattle looks to me like a ten

1017
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:47,760
Speaker 4: eleven twelve win team, But I think either the Rams

1018
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:49,520
Speaker 4: or the forty nine ers have a big season and

1019
00:44:49,560 --> 00:44:52,319
Speaker 4: win the division. So I like Seattle to definitely make

1020
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:55,120
Speaker 4: the playoffs, but not win the division. So at plus

1021
00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:56,960
Speaker 4: two to twenty, they're in my pick there.

1022
00:44:57,000 --> 00:44:58,440
Speaker 2: So you I have to push back on it. So

1023
00:44:58,480 --> 00:45:00,880
Speaker 2: you think you're just probably gonna be three teams out.

1024
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 4: Of that division to make the playoffs, Yeah, I do well,

1025
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:06,040
Speaker 4: I would. I would say three teams. I would also

1026
00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:11,799
Speaker 4: say that Seattle is I don't know how to say, Like,

1027
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:14,360
Speaker 4: Seattle would be my second pick in the out of

1028
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:17,560
Speaker 4: the three to make the playoffs. The other two would

1029
00:45:17,560 --> 00:45:20,400
Speaker 4: be my first and third, but I don't know which order. Like,

1030
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 4: I think that there's a scenario where either the Rams

1031
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:25,600
Speaker 4: or the forty nine ers don't mean expectations, but that

1032
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:28,399
Speaker 4: also one of them does, Like I think I think

1033
00:45:28,480 --> 00:45:30,920
Speaker 4: expectations for those two if they do hit the ceiling

1034
00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:33,440
Speaker 4: is much higher, and I think that the floor.

1035
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 3: Is a little lower.

1036
00:45:34,360 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 4: Seattle is more more in the middle. To me, I

1037
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:40,839
Speaker 4: think less of a thirteen and four season hiding in there. God,

1038
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:43,239
Speaker 4: that sounds so dumb. Can we go back to sixteen games? Like,

1039
00:45:43,280 --> 00:45:44,600
Speaker 4: I just want our numbers.

1040
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:46,319
Speaker 2: That we Yeah, I'm totally struggling with it.

1041
00:45:46,360 --> 00:45:48,239
Speaker 5: Like earlier when I said thirteen and four, I didn't

1042
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:52,279
Speaker 5: know were crazy. But I'm not high on Seattle. I

1043
00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 5: just don't think they have a great pass rush. I

1044
00:45:54,600 --> 00:45:56,400
Speaker 5: don't think they have a great secondary. You still got

1045
00:45:56,440 --> 00:45:59,200
Speaker 5: your ball ams out there, who I really don't like

1046
00:45:59,239 --> 00:46:01,719
Speaker 5: at all. I mean, I think they need to take

1047
00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:06,400
Speaker 5: him out back. I mean, to me, Jamal Adams is

1048
00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:09,719
Speaker 5: a guy where he's a guy who could rush the

1049
00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 5: pastor but I don't want him in past coverage at all.

1050
00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:15,800
Speaker 5: I think if you're betting on Seattle, you're simply betting

1051
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:19,920
Speaker 5: going Russell Wilson to continue to be superhuman, which is

1052
00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:21,640
Speaker 5: one of those things that I'd never like to do

1053
00:46:21,880 --> 00:46:24,520
Speaker 5: when it comes to any any sport other than basketball.

1054
00:46:24,880 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 5: And I think with their division, I just I can't

1055
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:30,799
Speaker 5: get there with Seattle we skipped over to AFC. But

1056
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:33,400
Speaker 5: I do agree with you on the Chargers and the Broncos.

1057
00:46:33,400 --> 00:46:34,799
Speaker 5: I think those were I think one of those two

1058
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:36,200
Speaker 5: teams will been into the playoffs.

1059
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:40,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I think so too. And I guess the

1060
00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:43,759
Speaker 4: difference for me is for that top top tier of quarterbacks,

1061
00:46:43,800 --> 00:46:46,960
Speaker 4: which I have long argued Russell Wilson has always been

1062
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:47,640
Speaker 4: and will be.

1063
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 3: I'm willing to bet on it.

1064
00:46:49,480 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 4: You give me any roster and Russell Wilson or Pat

1065
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:55,440
Speaker 4: Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers, it's good enough for me.

1066
00:46:56,239 --> 00:46:56,960
Speaker 3: In the NFL.

1067
00:46:57,000 --> 00:46:59,280
Speaker 4: If you have that good of a quarterback and whoever

1068
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:01,319
Speaker 4: else on your team, you're winning ten games and making

1069
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:04,280
Speaker 4: the playoffs. Like you're only missing the playoffs if Russell

1070
00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:06,399
Speaker 4: Wilson gets hurt. If he's healthy, they're going to get in.

1071
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:09,759
Speaker 4: And I agree with your dislike of the rest of

1072
00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:11,480
Speaker 4: the team. That's why I like them to get a

1073
00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:13,040
Speaker 4: wild card, because I don't think they're going to get

1074
00:47:13,080 --> 00:47:16,520
Speaker 4: to that twelve thirteen win season. So yeah, all right,

1075
00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:18,080
Speaker 4: Well that is going to wrap it up for a

1076
00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:21,160
Speaker 4: twenty twenty one Team Exotics show here at Action Network

1077
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:25,480
Speaker 4: Podcast next week. It is all Overheman Brandon all the time.

1078
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:28,160
Speaker 4: We're going to do our full AFC and NFC season

1079
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 4: and previews and best bets for every team. Will break

1080
00:47:31,640 --> 00:47:34,520
Speaker 4: down season stat leaders later in the week, and don't

1081
00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:37,360
Speaker 4: forget also to check out the AFC and NFC season

1082
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:40,960
Speaker 4: Win Total podcast with Stucky, Raybond, and Kerner. AFC is

1083
00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 4: already out, NFC is coming soon. We are only two

1084
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:49,239
Speaker 4: weeks away from real, live, regular season NFL football, and

1085
00:47:49,280 --> 00:47:51,200
Speaker 4: we've got to cover everything you need right here on

1086
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:54,799
Speaker 4: this feed. Starting after Labor Day, you're gonna get Ray,

1087
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:58,600
Speaker 4: Bond and Stucky's NFL Betting Guide episodes every single Wednesday.

1088
00:47:58,920 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 4: They'll hit you with their six pack and all their

1089
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Speaker 4: best picks for the week, where Heem and I will

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Speaker 4: be with you every Monday and every Friday. Early in

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Speaker 4: the week, we're going to recap the NFL betting weekend.

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Speaker 4: We'll preview Monday night football and give you some hot

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Speaker 4: reads on the early lines for the next week.

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Speaker 3: We'll be back Friday for a quick paced.

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Speaker 4: Run just up and down the NFL betting board everything

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Speaker 4: you need to know heading into the weekend. So Monday,

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Speaker 4: Wednesday Friday, we'll hit you with football all week all

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Speaker 4: season all here on the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: Make sure to.

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Speaker 4: Follow, subscribe, review five stars, the Whole Works ber Hee

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Speaker 4: and Palmer. I'm Brandon Anderson. This has been the Action

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Speaker 4: Network Podcast. We'll see you next time.