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Speaker 1: Now here's a highlight from Coast to Coast AM on

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Speaker 1: iHeart Radio and welcome back to Coast to Coast. George

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Speaker 1: Norrey with you along with doctor Michael Shermer. Michael Carl Sagan,

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Speaker 1: the late Carl Sagan believe that there were extraterrestrials out there,

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Speaker 1: but did not believe we were visited either. Yeah, that's right,

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Speaker 1: that's my position, although again I wouldn't use that word

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Speaker 1: believe because that suggests that you know, there's evidence and

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Speaker 1: there's just no evidence yet against So when we say

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Speaker 1: that they're probably out there, it's it's it's kind of

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Speaker 1: a basing and reasoning kind of argument that you kind

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Speaker 1: of assigned probabilities based on the conditions that you're looking at. So,

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Speaker 1: you know, one hundred billion stars per galaxy, one hundred

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Speaker 1: billions to a trillion galaxies, there's just so many opportunities

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Speaker 1: that would be stunning if we were the only ones,

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Speaker 1: it's possible, But you know, they're probably out there. But again,

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Speaker 1: I can't say I believe it because that would suggest

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Speaker 1: that I have evidence and I don't. Nobody does. So

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Speaker 1: would you say that witness testimony is evidence? Well, so

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Speaker 1: now you're talking about the second question, have they come here?

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Speaker 1: Because eyewitnesses aren't going to help us for detecting life

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Speaker 1: on some other star system, right, so here you're talking

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Speaker 1: about have they come here? No, the eyewitness testimony is

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Speaker 1: just abysmal. It's terrible. Uh, not not just for that,

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Speaker 1: but for court cases for murders and homicides and whatnot.

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Speaker 1: It's terrible. You know, people misremember, they exaggerate, and you know,

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Speaker 1: it just we're not you know, memory is not a

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Speaker 1: video camera that records fidelity and you play it back

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Speaker 1: in the theater of your mind. It just doesn't work

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Speaker 1: that way. So it's not trustworthy. Again, from a scientific perspective,

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Speaker 1: for us to say we know we've been visited, it

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Speaker 1: has to be unmistakable. You know, here's an actual spacecraft

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Speaker 1: or a body. You can see it. I could see it.

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Speaker 1: The National Academy and Science can study it. You know,

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Speaker 1: it's published, you know in pair of you urnals and

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Speaker 1: scientists from around the world could look at it. You know,

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Speaker 1: these grainy videos and blurry photographs and anecdotes about things

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Speaker 1: that go bumping in the sky. Uh, you know that's

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Speaker 1: it's not enough. It's just not I mean, it would

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Speaker 1: be fantastic. If you know we've discovered we had been visited,

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Speaker 1: it would be truly amanting. It would be so exciting.

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Speaker 1: I don't think. I'm not one of those people that thinks, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, the economy would collapse and they'd be political

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Speaker 1: unrest and so on. No, I think it would be

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Speaker 1: you know, the most exciting thing ever. And you know,

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Speaker 1: the scientists would be celebrating and applying for more grants.

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Speaker 1: So scientists, contrary to the myths you hear, they would

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Speaker 1: love to embrace this. There'd be no conspiratorial cover up

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Speaker 1: at all. Are you confident that there are miracles that

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Speaker 1: happen miracles, Well, it depends what you mean by that,

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Speaker 1: you know, if you mean million to one odds, some

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Speaker 1: you know, kind of both two defense of miracles, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: those happen all the time. Statistically speaking, the very unlikely

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Speaker 1: will happen if there's enough opportunities for it to happen.

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Speaker 1: As they say, a million to one odds happened three

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Speaker 1: hundred times in a day in America. I mean, just

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Speaker 1: we're three hundred million Americans. You're just going to get

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Speaker 1: weird things happening. But if you mean by miracle and

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Speaker 1: actual intervention by a deity into the world to alter something. No,

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Speaker 1: there's no evidence for that, and that's been tested. You know,

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Speaker 1: the Temples and Foundations funded a massive study at Harvard

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Speaker 1: Medical about the effects of prayer on medical outcomes of

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Speaker 1: part patients and found no statistically significant difference. That prayed

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Speaker 1: for a group did slightly worse than the not prayed

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Speaker 1: for a group, although not statistically so. So there's been

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Speaker 1: attempts to test that and it hasn't borne out. There's

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Speaker 1: lots of anecdotes, but the problem with anecdotes is you

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Speaker 1: only hear the ones that came out the survivorship bias,

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Speaker 1: that is, the people that got prayed for and they survived.

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Speaker 1: What about all the loving Christian families who prayed for

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Speaker 1: their loved ones with cancer and the loved ones died, right,

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Speaker 1: We don't hear about them, but that's what usually happens

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Speaker 1: with cancer unfortunately. Or you know, the Christian soldiers who

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Speaker 1: were mutilated or killed in Iraq and Afghanistan. You know,

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Speaker 1: we hear about the miracles, the handful of miracles, but

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Speaker 1: never about you know, what happens to most of them

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Speaker 1: who are injured, or you know, like that where was

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Speaker 1: God for these, so that that seems to me a problem.

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Speaker 1: You might get visited this Christmas by the Christmas spirits

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Speaker 1: from the Christmas kirol. Well, if you mean my wife

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Speaker 1: putting presents under the tree for me, Yeah, that I

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Speaker 1: hope that happens. Well, no, let me ask you this.

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Speaker 1: Does she share your same views? Oh? Yeah, definitely she does. Okay, yeah,

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Speaker 1: But but you were mentioning there was a time when

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Speaker 1: you were younger, you didn't think the way you do today.

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Speaker 1: So when I you know, when I was in college, well,

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Speaker 1: when I was in high school, I became Born against Is.

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Speaker 1: One of my couple of my friends were really into it.

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Speaker 1: This was nineteen seventy one, and it was kind of

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Speaker 1: the early stages of the evangel movement, kind of the

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Speaker 1: hippie evangelical movement, right with long hair, played guitars saying

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Speaker 1: kubaya and non denominational. You know, we recognized religion wasn't

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Speaker 1: that cool, but you know, one on one relationship with

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Speaker 1: Jesus was. But then I took it seriously and thought, well,

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Speaker 1: if I'm going to do this, I should go to

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Speaker 1: a religious school. So I went to Pepperdine. I was

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Speaker 1: going to originally major in theology. But I really wanted

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Speaker 1: to be a college professor, because I really loved that

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Speaker 1: as a profession, lecturing, reading, studied, and so forth. But

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Speaker 1: to do that you have to get a pH in theology.

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Speaker 1: You have to master four languages Hebrew, Greek, Airmak, and Latin.

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Speaker 1: I could barely get through Spanish. So I realized this

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Speaker 1: is probably not my skill set, right, So I switched

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Speaker 1: to psychology, and that got me into science and experimental

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Speaker 1: experimental psychology and testing things, and eventually, after about seven years,

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Speaker 1: I just quietly abandoned my faith. I wasn't obnoxious about it.

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Speaker 1: I think probably my family was relieved because I was

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Speaker 1: constantly witnessing, which is what evangelicals do. They witness for

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Speaker 1: the Lord. You go door to door, you talk to

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Speaker 1: people because you want to save their souls. It's on.

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Speaker 1: So I have a feeling my friends and family were

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Speaker 1: relieved I dropped the religion. Michael, tell us about your

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars challenge. Oh my gosh, yes, right, no one's

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Speaker 1: taking me up on that. Well, you know, you see

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Speaker 1: all these people on social media and on TV, all

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Speaker 1: the pro UFO people going on and on about these

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Speaker 1: UAP videos. A disclosure is going to happen at any moment,

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Speaker 1: the government's gonna tell us what they really know. And

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Speaker 1: so I just simply said, all right, look, I'll put

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Speaker 1: up a thousand bucks if you'll put up a thousand

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Speaker 1: bucks if we can say by say December thirty first,

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, so you know, a year and a

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Speaker 1: half from now, I bet that the government will not

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Speaker 1: be releasing any statements saying we know for sure. And

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Speaker 1: by that I mean again the National Academy of Sciences,

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Speaker 1: the president holds a press conference and announces, you know,

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Speaker 1: we have made contact, and you know the world's leading

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Speaker 1: scientists all agree, yep, we looked at it here it is.

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Speaker 1: It's definite. Right. So if that happened, I'd be happy

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Speaker 1: to walk over one thousand bucks because I'd be excited.

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Speaker 1: That would be great. But the challenge is meant to

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Speaker 1: kind of push people how much do you actually believe this.

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Speaker 1: You'll see these people on TV saying, oh, it's going

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Speaker 1: to happen for sure, one hundred percent is going to

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Speaker 1: happen in the next couple of months. Oh yeah, well

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Speaker 1: I don't think so. So that I got a thousand bucks,

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Speaker 1: and then you know no one even responds, so you know,

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Speaker 1: I don't mean it as a publicity stunt. I'm really

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Speaker 1: you know, happy to put I may increase at ten

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Speaker 1: to one. I may put up ten thousand bucks in

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Speaker 1: my own money for somebody to put up a thousand

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Speaker 1: and just put it in an account that somebody else

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Speaker 1: can control. And then when the day comes, uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: if it happens, then they get the money. If it

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Speaker 1: doesn't happen, then I get the money. We've got that

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Speaker 1: link for you at Coast to coast dam dot com

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Speaker 1: under tonight's program, folks, if you want to go take

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Speaker 1: a look at that. Also your analysis of UAPs. Tell

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Speaker 1: us about that, Michael, Yes, I wrote an article for

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Speaker 1: Quilette if you if you just search shermerum schrmer UAP.

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Speaker 1: So there I lay out what I think are the

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Speaker 1: three hypotheses on the table for what these videos represent,

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Speaker 1: and not just these videos. So, I mean we've seen

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Speaker 1: films and videos for fifty years, right, you know about

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Speaker 1: all those and so what are they? Okay, So there's

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Speaker 1: three hypotheses ordinary terrestrial and you know, here I'll give

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Speaker 1: you the list of possibilities from Leslie Keenes whom I know,

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Speaker 1: you know who is a largely pro upologists. From her

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Speaker 1: book UFOs, generals, pilots, and government officials go on the Record,

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Speaker 1: Leslie Keene says that all UFO sightings can be explained

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Speaker 1: as quote weather, balloons, flares, sky lanterns, planes, flying information,

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Speaker 1: secret military aircraft, birds reflecting the sun, planes reflecting the sun, blimps, helicopters,

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Speaker 1: the planet's penis or mars, meteors, meteorites, space john satellite swamp, gas,

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Speaker 1: spinning eddies, sundogs, ball lightning, ice, crystals, reflected light off clouds,

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Speaker 1: lights off the ground, where lights reflected on a compact

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Speaker 1: wind come, cockpit window, temperature inversions, whole punch clouds. The

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Speaker 1: list goes on. All right, So whatever it is we're

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Speaker 1: talking about, it's probably in that ninety five percent. Ben Now,

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Speaker 1: the other two are also possible. I'm not saying they're impossible.

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Speaker 1: The other two are extraordinary terrestrial. So this would be

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Speaker 1: like Russian or Chinese. That's usually what cheat advanced technology,

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Speaker 1: far beyond anything we have. And then the third I bought,

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Speaker 1: this is extraordinary extraterrestrial. These are aliens. So I claim

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Speaker 1: that whenever somebody comes up with a new X What

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Speaker 1: is this video? What is this photograph? There's a ninety

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Speaker 1: five percent probability by the UFO people's own estimate that

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Speaker 1: it's ordinary terrestrial phenomenon. Now to put it in the

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Speaker 1: other two bins, you know, we would need some extraordinary

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Speaker 1: evidence for extraordinary claims. So if Russia has drones that

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Speaker 1: are able to do these things, we're told that these

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Speaker 1: UAP videos are showing is to the capable of doing

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Speaker 1: we should see these now in Ukraine they should be

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Speaker 1: using this technology. They would use that technology if yes,

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Speaker 1: and they're not. We don't see anything like that in Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: So that tells us, well, okay, it's probably not Russian.

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Speaker 1: If it's Chinese, you would think maybe they could use

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Speaker 1: it in Taiwan or something, but you know, who knows.

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Speaker 1: And then extraordinary extraterrestrial this would be aliens. Right, chances

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Speaker 1: of aliens having something like a super fast groan seems

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Speaker 1: unlikely as possible. But um, you know, if we make

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Speaker 1: contact with aliens, they're not going to be just like

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Speaker 1: fifty or a hundred years ahead of it. They're going

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Speaker 1: to be like one hundred thousand or a million years.

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Speaker 1: I mean they again, they would be indistinguishable from God.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they would be capable of things that we

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Speaker 1: just can't even conceive of. Right, So if we're you know,

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Speaker 1: this is one explanation for the family paradox. Where is everybody?

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Speaker 1: You know, the zoo, the kind of the cloaking zoo,

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Speaker 1: you know their secret there they are here, they're watching this,

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Speaker 1: but we can't see them because they're maybe they're not

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Speaker 1: physical beings anymore. Maybe they're you know, on light beans,

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Speaker 1: or they're in the cloud or something like that. I

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Speaker 1: mean again, it's you know, we can't even conceive of

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Speaker 1: what they might be like. So, but so you come

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Speaker 1: across a new mystery. What is it? Chance it's in

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Speaker 1: that first bin, it could be in the other two bins.

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Speaker 1: Not impossible, but very unlikely. I don't think it's Russian.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's Chinese. I don't think it's US.

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Speaker 1: So if we rule that out, what's left well ordinary terrestrial?

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Speaker 1: It is camera effects, milar balloons, you know, jet engines

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Speaker 1: of a you know, a jet that's moving away from

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Speaker 1: you or right directly at you. It doesn't look like

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Speaker 1: it's movie. You know. I live in southern California, so

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Speaker 1: I can see planes coming into Lax and leaving Lax,

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Speaker 1: and when it's in your light of sight, it's kind

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Speaker 1: of weird looking because you can tell it's a plane,

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Speaker 1: but it doesn't seem to be moving. And the reason

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Speaker 1: is because coming right at you, or it's going right

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Speaker 1: directly away from you. And so there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: effects like that. If you look at the tic Taco,

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Speaker 1: there's a moment where the little tic tac blurry again.

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Speaker 1: It's probably just the heat signature of the engine of

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Speaker 1: the check moving away from the camera. But at some

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Speaker 1: moment it zooms off to the left, and these uap

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Speaker 1: UFO people make a big deal about how fast it

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Speaker 1: moved off to the left. No one except my friend Mcwest,

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Speaker 1: who pointed this out. Points out that in the upper

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Speaker 1: left corner of the video there's a thing called zoom,

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Speaker 1: and it goes from one point zero to two point zero.

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Speaker 1: The camera zoomed in double zoom, and that's what made

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Speaker 1: the object move. If the object didn't move at all,

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Speaker 1: the camera zoomed in, the camera moved this case, the

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Speaker 1: lens moved. So I think these videos are all much

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Speaker 1: more likely to be just artifacts of cameras lens light.

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Speaker 1: Oh but don't you think the government would have said that, Michael,

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Speaker 1: you would think so. I'm amazed at the press conferences.

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Speaker 1: I'm just quite confident that, you know, if a couple

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Speaker 1: of amateurs can figure this out, you know, surely someone

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Speaker 1: in the Pentagon must know this well. When I think,

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Speaker 1: George honestly is they know perfectly well what's going on,

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Speaker 1: and that just like back in the Cold War days,

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Speaker 1: they didn't tell us what, you know, these Project Mogul

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Speaker 1: for example, you know, launching these balloons in the upper

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Speaker 1: atmosphere to listen to the Soviet upper atmosphere nuclear tests.

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Speaker 1: Of course they're not going to tell us. Of course

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Speaker 1: they lie to the citizens, right, So I think it's

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Speaker 1: going to be something like that. In twenty years we

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Speaker 1: may know. Just remember, it's like the stealth bomber. You know,

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Speaker 1: this is one of the spookiest things you've ever seen.

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Speaker 1: It's so cool. But if we didn't know it, you know,

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Speaker 1: and you just saw this thing out in the desert

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Speaker 1: at dusk some night you didn't know about it would

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Speaker 1: look like a UFO. But now we know about it.

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Speaker 1: So I suspect it could be something like that, and

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Speaker 1: they're just not telling us what did you think of

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Speaker 1: the congressional hearing from several weeks ago? Pretty disappointing. I

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Speaker 1: mean they just showed they didn't even show the best

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Speaker 1: of the crummy yes, no, or they didn't even have

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Speaker 1: the best of the so called witnesses. Terrible. It was

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Speaker 1: just embarrassing, and they're fumbling around trying to show that

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Speaker 1: one video. I'll tell you here's something that I noticed

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Speaker 1: in the sixty minutes piece that Bill Whittaker did on UAPs.

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Speaker 1: He had night Navy pilot Ryan Graves, who was one

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Speaker 1: of these that saw track and saw a UAP. So

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Speaker 1: they talked about this and then he kind of, let's

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Speaker 1: drop an interesting sentence. He said he had been seeing

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Speaker 1: these uapas quote every day for at least a couple

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Speaker 1: of years. Well, hang on, true, Given that nearly every

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Speaker 1: passenger and a commercial airliner, everybody at the beach, people

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Speaker 1: walking along the sidewalk near the ocean down on ocean

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Speaker 1: side there and San Diego where these things were shot,

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Speaker 1: they all had high resolution video cameras in their pockets,

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Speaker 1: in their smartphones. There should be hundred thousands, tens of

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Speaker 1: thousands of photos and videos of all these UAPs, and

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Speaker 1: we got nothing. We got those three or four videos.

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Speaker 1: That's it. So if this is true and they're really

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Speaker 1: out there buzzing in our military bases or whatever, there

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Speaker 1: should be just tons of videos. By the way, I'm

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Speaker 1: on the Galileo project team with Abbie Loebe at Harvard,

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Speaker 1: he said, Harvard Astronomy Department. Now he's a believer. He's

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Speaker 1: well startup again. He know you hate that word, but yeah,

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Speaker 1: he's a good scientist. He says he thinks that ammu

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Speaker 1: object was possibly extraterrestrial. He says he doesn't know, but

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Speaker 1: he thinks it could be. I agree, it could be.

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Speaker 1: So let's look and so I like this project. I'm

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Speaker 1: on the team. I support. Oh that's good. Let's set

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Speaker 1: up cameras everywhere and film like crazy and figure out

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Speaker 1: what the heck is going on here? And you're not offended?

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Speaker 1: Would people call you the skeptic? Are you? I like it,

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Speaker 1: I'm proud of it. That's what I do. It's the

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Speaker 1: name of my magazine. Listen to more Coast to Coast

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Speaker 1: AM every weeknight at one am Eastern and go to

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Speaker 1: Coast to Coast am dot com for more