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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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Speaker 2: Good morning.

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Speaker 3: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the

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Speaker 3: stories we're following today.

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Speaker 2: Karen, we begin in our nation's capital. That's after a

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Speaker 2: federal judge blocked President Donald Trump's plan to eliminate up

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Speaker 2: to ten percent of the federal workforce. There was so

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Speaker 2: called buyout. Bloomberg Zamy Morris reports from Washington. It isn't

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Speaker 2: really a buyout. It's called a deferred resignation. But hours

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Speaker 2: before the midnight deadline for workers to apply, the judge

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Speaker 2: sided with several labor unions that had requested a temporary

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Speaker 2: restraining order until Monday. Democratic Senator Mark Warner of Virginia

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Speaker 2: applauds the delay.

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Speaker 4: I don't believe it's been funded. I don't believe Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump has any history of ever paying his bills, and

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Speaker 4: I fear that federal employees may be marked for riffing,

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Speaker 4: potentially without any conversation.

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Speaker 5: The administration says as many as sixty thousand government workers

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Speaker 5: have accepted the offer to reside with the promise of

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Speaker 5: being paid their regular salary through September. In Washington, Amy

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Speaker 5: Moore as Bloomberg Radio all.

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Speaker 3: Right, Amy, thank you well. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson says

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Speaker 3: he personally vetted the Treasury employees on Elon Musk's Government

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Speaker 3: Efficiency Team with read only access to federal payment data.

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Speaker 3: Besson added that there has been no tinkering with the

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Speaker 3: Department's payment system. We spoke exclusively with Besson on DOGE.

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Speaker 6: There's a lot of misinformation out there. First of all,

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Speaker 6: when you say the DOGE team, these are Treasury employees.

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Speaker 7: Are two Treasury.

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Speaker 6: Employees, one of whom I personally interviewed in his final round.

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Speaker 6: There is no tinkering with the system. They are on

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Speaker 6: read only, they are looking. They can make no changes.

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Speaker 6: It is an operational program to suggest improvement.

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Speaker 3: And that's Treasury Secretary Scott Besson speaking of the Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: Sila Mosen. You can catch the full interview on the

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Big Take podcast. Get it on Apples, Spotify, and

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Speaker 3: always on the Bloomberg terminal.

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Speaker 7: Well, Karen.

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Speaker 2: President Trump's laying out more of his tax priorities. He

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Speaker 2: met with congressional Republicans at the White House to discuss

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Speaker 2: what he wants to see in a tax bill this year.

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Speaker 2: White House Press Secretary Caroline Love It says the President

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Speaker 2: wants to make good on his promises from the campaign.

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Speaker 8: No tax on tips, which is obviously a very public

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Speaker 8: campaign promise that the President made, no tax on seniors

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Speaker 8: social Security, no tax on overtime pay, renewing President Trump's

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Speaker 8: twenty seventeen middle class tax cuts.

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Speaker 2: White House spokeswoman Caroline Lovit also highlighted two items that

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Speaker 2: weren't discussed during the campaign, ending the carried interest tax

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Speaker 2: break that lets private equity managers pay lower rates on

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Speaker 2: their investments, and ending tax breaks for sports team owners.

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Speaker 2: The White House says the President also wants to expand

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Speaker 2: the deduction for state and local taxes. That's a priority

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Speaker 2: for our Republicans from high tax states.

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Speaker 3: One of President Trump's latest efforts to reshape the federal

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Speaker 3: government is facing high profile resistance. The head of the

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Speaker 3: Federal Election Commission, Ellen Wintraub, said she was fired in

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Speaker 3: a letter from their resident, but she's not leaving. Wind

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Speaker 3: Troub posted a copy of the letter on x and wrote, quote,

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Speaker 3: there's a legal way to replace FEC commissioners. This isn't it.

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Speaker 3: Wine Trub was appointed to a six year term more

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Speaker 3: than twenty years ago under federal law commissioners are allowed

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Speaker 3: to stay past their terms until a replacement is named.

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Speaker 2: Well, Karen, for the first time, I'm sorry. For the

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Speaker 2: third time in just two weeks, there may be another

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Speaker 2: deadly disaster over US guys. Bloomberg's John Tucker is here

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Speaker 2: now with what we know.

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Speaker 7: John Nathan.

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Speaker 9: A Bearing Air flight has been reported missing as it

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Speaker 9: was headed to Noel, Alaska, with nine passengers and a

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Speaker 9: pilot on board. This happened at about four pm local

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Speaker 9: time yesterday. The rescue crews are scaring the ground for

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Speaker 9: any sign of the wreckage of this Cessna jet. If

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Speaker 9: no survivors are found, the tragedy would mark one of

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Speaker 9: the worst concentrated periods in aviation history in the US.

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Speaker 9: Americans are still coming to terms with a death of

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Speaker 9: sixty seven people in Washington after that regional jet in

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Speaker 9: a military helicopter collided mid air or January twenty ninth.

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Speaker 9: Just days later, a Metavac playing crash soon after takeoff

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Speaker 9: in Philadelphia with a sick child and five others on board.

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Speaker 9: Meantime of that Washington, DC crash, investigators say it was

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Speaker 9: likely the pilots of the military helicopter We're wearing ninth

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Speaker 9: vision goggles, which can limit their peripheral vision. I'm John Tucker,

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Speaker 9: Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 3: All right, John, thank you.

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Speaker 10: Well.

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Speaker 3: We now turn to the markets, where mag seven is

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Speaker 3: in focus once again. Shares of Amazon are down more

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Speaker 3: than three percent in early trading. The company is warning

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Speaker 3: investors that it could face capacity constraints in its cloud

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Speaker 3: computing division. That despite plans to invest about one hundred

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Speaker 3: billion dollars this year, with most of the money going

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Speaker 3: toward data centers, homegrown ships, and other equipment to provide

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Speaker 3: artificial intelligence services here CEO Andy Jasse on the company conference.

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Speaker 11: Call, AI represents for sure the biggest opportunity since cloud

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Speaker 11: and probably the biggest technology shift and opportunity and business

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Speaker 11: since the Internet, and so well, I think that both

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Speaker 11: our business, our customers as shareholders will be happy medium

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Speaker 11: to long term that we're pursuing the capital opportunity and

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Speaker 11: the business opportunity.

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Speaker 3: In AI and Amazon CEO Andy Jasse He says the

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Speaker 3: AI race will likely way down profits, operating income will

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Speaker 3: be fourteen billion to eighteen billion dollars, and that's below

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Speaker 3: analyst estimates.

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Speaker 2: Well, soon the focus is going to turn to the economy.

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Speaker 2: Karen investors are waiting for the January jobs report. Economists

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Speaker 2: are looking for an edition of one hundred and seventy

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Speaker 2: five thousand jobs. Let's get a preview from Bloomberg's Michael McKee.

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Speaker 12: Perhaps it's reversion to the mean. Economists anticipate we had

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Speaker 12: much slower job growth in January after December's blowout report.

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Speaker 12: January also a month when holiday helped leaves payrolls, and

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Speaker 12: this year there are also likely significant job losses from

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Speaker 12: the fires in Los Angeles. Unemployment, however, is forecast to

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Speaker 12: be reassuring no change, indicating that while companies may not

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Speaker 12: be hiring, they aren't letting workers go. If the labor

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Speaker 12: market remains solid, it will help the Fed make the

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Speaker 12: case for leaving interest rates unchanged for longer to keep

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Speaker 12: the pressure on inflation. Michael McKee, Bloomberg.

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Speaker 3: Radio, All right, Mike, thanks, as we await that rapport.

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Speaker 3: Dallas Fed President Lourie Logan is skeptical that more rate

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Speaker 3: cuts are necessary. She's spoke at an event in Mexico City.

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Speaker 13: I what if inflation comes in close to two percent

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Speaker 13: in coming months, Well, that would be good news. It

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Speaker 13: wouldn't necessarily allow the FMC to cut rates soon in

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Speaker 13: my view, and.

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Speaker 3: Dallas FED President Lorie Logan did say the Fed would

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Speaker 3: likely lower rates if the labor market deteriorated. Time now

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Speaker 3: over look at some of the other stories making news

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Speaker 3: in New York and around the world, and for that

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Speaker 3: we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr.

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Speaker 7: Michael, good morning, Good morning, Karen.

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Speaker 14: Get ready for another round of winter weather this weekend,

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Speaker 14: Bloomberg Medeu Religious Rob Carolyn as the.

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Speaker 15: Latest, Michael, Yet another winter storm headed towards the mid

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Speaker 15: Atlantic and Northeast for this weekend. Winter storm watches of

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Speaker 15: up for the New York City area and for Boston.

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Speaker 15: Saturday night and into Sunday. We'll see snow, sleet, and

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Speaker 15: rain developing in the district. Tomorrow afternoon it changes to

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Speaker 15: rain there not a big deal, but we could see

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Speaker 15: three to five inches of snow in the city during

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Speaker 15: Saturday night and into Sunday, and more the same in Boston.

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Speaker 15: I'm Rob Carolyn, Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 7: Thanks Ron.

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Speaker 14: Panama's president is calling a statement by the US State

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Speaker 14: Department in absolute falsehood. The department writing American vessels would

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Speaker 14: no longer have to pay charge fees at the Panama Canal.

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Speaker 14: The dispute comes days after Secretary of State Marco Rubio's

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Speaker 14: first overseas trip to the Central American country. Rubio says

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Speaker 14: he's not confused about the situation.

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Speaker 15: I respect very much that Panama has a process. They're

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Speaker 15: democraticly elected government.

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Speaker 7: They have rules, they have laws.

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Speaker 15: They're going to follow their process, but our expectations remain

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Speaker 15: the same.

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Speaker 14: Panama's President, Jose Roe Milinos, says that he will speak

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Speaker 14: with President Trump today. Ron Supreme leader says that negotiations

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Speaker 14: with America are not in tell gent wise or honorable.

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Speaker 14: After President Trump floated nuclear talks with tey ron I,

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Speaker 14: had Toola al Kameni also suggested that there should be

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Speaker 14: no negotiations with such a government, but stop short of

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Speaker 14: issuing a direct order not to engage with Washington. Bird

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Speaker 14: flu has sent the price of eggs skyrocketing, impacting everything

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Speaker 14: from big chain grocery stores and restaurants to the local

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Speaker 14: sandwich shops. At Benny's Deli in Queen's, the five dollars

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Speaker 14: fifty cent bacon, egg and cheese sandwich has been the

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Speaker 14: mainstay of morning business. However, owner Anthony Bonavita says soon

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Speaker 14: he may be forced to raise prices.

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Speaker 6: I'm trying to hold on, you know, but most I

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Speaker 6: will go up as a dollar buck.

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Speaker 7: I don't even want to do.

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Speaker 14: That, Bonavita says. An average case of eggs used to

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Speaker 14: be sixty to seventy dollars. Now he's paying over two

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Speaker 14: hundred and twenty dollars. Global News twenty four hours a

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Speaker 14: day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 7: I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 3: All right, Michael Barr, thank you time now for the

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Sports Update, brought to you by Trying Staineoudie. Here's

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Speaker 3: John Stashauer. John, Good morning, gim MONI Karen.

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Speaker 10: For the first time ever, brothers will be members of

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Speaker 10: the Pro Football Hall of.

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Speaker 7: Fame, but not the Mannings.

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Speaker 10: Many Giants fans were hoping Eli would join Peyton, but

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Speaker 10: Eli did not get in, and on the first ballot anyway,

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Speaker 10: former Green Bay whiteout Sterling Sharp was named and he

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Speaker 10: joined his brother Shannon also named production former Chargers tight

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Speaker 10: end Antonio Gainton, eight time Pro Bowler, six time Pro

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Speaker 10: Bowl cornerback Eric Allen, and pass rusher Jared Allen. The

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Speaker 10: four player class the smallest in twenty years also in

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Speaker 10: New Orleans. Out of the Super Bowl, Josh Allen named

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Speaker 10: NFL MVP in the closest votes since two thousand and three.

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Speaker 10: He edged out Lamar Jackson. The same voters had named

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Speaker 10: Jackson as the first team All Pro Quarterbacks. SA Kwan

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Speaker 10: Barkley won Offensive Player of the Year. He's getting ready

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Speaker 10: for his first Super Bowl. In his six years with

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Speaker 10: the Giants, Barkley only once even went to the playoffs.

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Speaker 10: His season affiliate course as far surpass all he went

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Speaker 10: through in New York.

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Speaker 4: Losing or diversities and the injuries that I went through,

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Speaker 4: you know the reason why I'm able to be at.

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Speaker 7: The age I am.

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Speaker 4: And after all those injuries, I never gave up.

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Speaker 7: I never lost hope.

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Speaker 4: You know, I just thought that I always saw this

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Speaker 4: moment coming. I always saw this success coming. At the time,

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Speaker 4: I thought it was going to be still in the

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Speaker 4: New York Giant uniform.

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Speaker 10: The Chiefs are one point favorite with the Eagles, so

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Speaker 10: Super Bowl fifty nine expected to be a close one.

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Speaker 10: Kansas City's won seventeen straight one score games, and his

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Speaker 10: three recent Super Bowl wins, Chiefs trailed in the fourth

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Speaker 10: quarter every time Dallas lost at home to Vegas three

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Speaker 10: to one. The Capitols won four to three at Philadelphia.

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Speaker 10: The Celtics lost at home to Dallas one twenty seven

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Speaker 10: one twenty Anthony Davis yet to play for the MAVs

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Speaker 10: and Luca Dohnston's yet to play for the Lakers, expecting

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Speaker 10: to play the Monday Lakers beat Golden State one twenty

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Speaker 10: to one. Twelve forty year old Lebron James scored forty

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Speaker 10: two points. Saint Johnson I brings its nine game winnings

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Speaker 10: straight to Yukon, taking on the two time defending national champs.

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Speaker 7: John Stan Shaward Bloomberg Sports carry.

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Speaker 1: Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Serious XM,

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Speaker 1: and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 7: Good morning.

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Speaker 2: I'm Nathan Hager bringing you now our extended conversation with

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Speaker 2: Treasury Secretary Scott Besson, speaking with Bloomberg Salaiah Mosen from

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Speaker 2: the cash room of the Treasury Department in Washington, d C.

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Speaker 2: They talked about Beson's plans for the dollar, tariffs trade

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Speaker 2: and more, but they began by addressing Elon Musk and

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Speaker 2: the Government Efficiency Team's involvement with the Treasury's federal payment system.

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Speaker 7: Let's go now to that conversation right now.

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Speaker 13: There is widespread concern about the DOGE team's access to

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Speaker 13: sensitive payment systems. Are you worried at all that that

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Speaker 13: access and that tinkering of the payment systems could affect

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Speaker 13: the Treasury's market or cause any disruption?

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Speaker 6: Good, well, Hilia, thank you for asking me about that,

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Speaker 6: because there's a lot of misinformation out there. First of all,

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Speaker 6: when you say the doche team, these are Treasury employees.

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Speaker 6: Are two Treasury employees, one of whom I personally interviewed

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Speaker 6: in his final round. There is no tinkering with the system.

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Speaker 6: They are on read only. They are looking. They can

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Speaker 6: make no changes. It is an operational program to suggest improvement.

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Speaker 6: So we make one point three billion payments a year.

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Speaker 6: And this is two employees who are working with a

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Speaker 6: group of long standing employees.

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Speaker 13: The letter that the Treasure Department sent earlier this week

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Speaker 13: talked about how the team currently does not have access

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Speaker 13: to change the system. Have they at any point this

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Speaker 13: year had the ability to make changes.

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Speaker 7: Absolutely not.

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Speaker 6: This is no different than you would have at a

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Speaker 6: private company. And by the way, the ability to change

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Speaker 6: the system sits over at the Federal Reserve, so it

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Speaker 6: doesn't even lie in this building. So they could make

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Speaker 6: suggestions on how to change the system, but we don't

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Speaker 6: even run the system.

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Speaker 13: And if they ask for if they request the ability

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Speaker 13: to change the system, would you grant that.

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Speaker 6: No, again, they have no ability to change the system.

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Speaker 6: I have no ability to grant that change. That they

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Speaker 6: can make suggestions, then it would go to the Federal

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Speaker 6: Reserve and just like any large erp system, there would

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Speaker 6: be tests. There would be this, there would be that,

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Speaker 6: and then the FED will determine whether these changes are

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Speaker 6: robust or not.

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Speaker 13: As the Secretary of Treasure, you also oversee the IRS.

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Speaker 13: Do you know what kind of access the team has

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Speaker 13: to IRS data or individual taxpayer data?

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Speaker 6: Well, I'm glad you asked that too, because look, the RIRs,

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Speaker 6: the privacy issue is one of the biggest issues, and

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Speaker 6: over the past four years we've seen a lot of

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Speaker 6: leaks out of there. The IRS systems are quite poor.

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Speaker 6: When I started college in nineteen eighty, I learned the

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Speaker 6: program in Cobyl. I think there are twelve different systems

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Speaker 6: at the IRS that still run on Cobyl. But as

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Speaker 6: of now there is no engagement at the IRS, and if.

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Speaker 13: They request that access, would you sign off on that request?

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Speaker 6: They haven't, so we'll take that when it comes to it.

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Speaker 6: I think there is a lot to do there, but

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Speaker 6: the president was elected with a big agenda and to

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Speaker 6: the extent that getting the IRS in better shape is

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Speaker 6: part of that. Sure, because look, with the IRS, what

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Speaker 6: am I concerned about? I am concerned about collections, I'm

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Speaker 6: concerned about privacy, and I am concerned that the system

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Speaker 6: is robust. But do you see customer service?

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Speaker 13: But do you think that if they ask for access

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Speaker 13: that is something you would consider signing off on.

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Speaker 6: There are a lot of things I'd consider. But look,

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Speaker 6: we're in the middle of the ex filing season right now.

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Speaker 6: We even with the government buyouts that are being that

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Speaker 6: expire at midnight tonight, we have the mandated that the

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Speaker 6: IRS customer facing employees that they're not eligible for that

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Speaker 6: until May fifteenth. So I don't imagine anything's going to

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Speaker 6: go on at the IRS until then or beyond.

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Speaker 13: Elon Musk just a few half an hour ago tweeted

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Speaker 13: out that Treasury needs to stop approving certain payments. Has

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Speaker 13: your staff tried to block any payments here at Treasury,

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Speaker 13: we have not and.

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Speaker 7: I'm glad you asked that too.

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Speaker 6: And just to put in perspective, Elon and I are

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Speaker 6: completely aligned in terms of cutting waste and increasing accountability

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Speaker 6: and transparency.

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Speaker 7: For the American people.

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Speaker 6: I believe that this dose program, in my adult life

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Speaker 6: is one of the most important audits of government or

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Speaker 6: changes to government structure.

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Speaker 7: We have seen that. When I was in my twenties, we.

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Speaker 6: Had the Grace Report, and there's some great suggestions that

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Speaker 6: came out of that never implemented under Clinton and Gore.

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Speaker 6: I think it was to government efficiency or reduce government.

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Speaker 7: Nothing happened.

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Speaker 6: So President Trump came in, there's a big agenda, and

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Speaker 6: I think that there are gigantic cost savings for the

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Speaker 6: American people here. And I think it's unfortunate the way

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Speaker 6: the media wants to lampoon what is going on. These

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Speaker 6: are highly trained professionals. This is not some roving ban

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Speaker 6: going around doing things. This is methodical and it is

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Speaker 6: going to yield big savings.

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Speaker 13: At any point, would you heed what Musk just tweeted

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Speaker 13: and stop payments come from coming through Treasury.

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Speaker 6: Well, most of that happens above us, that it comes

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Speaker 6: from the Department and the agencies. We are doing a

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Speaker 6: complete review, and I want to emphasize to you and

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Speaker 6: everyone watching that it is an operational review, It is

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Speaker 6: not an ideological review. We want to make sure that

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Speaker 6: the American people are getting the best practices, and I

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Speaker 6: don't think that's happening right now.

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Speaker 13: The systems here at Treasury they're known to be a

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Speaker 13: little antiquated, but very very sensitive, but also they're working.

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Speaker 13: I'm hearing Bloomberg. We hear a lot about investors being

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Speaker 13: concerned that this could hit markets in some way or

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Speaker 13: start to cause a loss of confidence. What as a

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Speaker 13: long time hedge fund and investor like, do you have

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Speaker 13: a response to those concerns.

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Speaker 6: People shouldn't be concerned that Treasury we move deliberately.

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Speaker 7: And we fix things. That's the way we work.

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Speaker 6: So everyone should know that all the payments are going

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Speaker 6: to be made, they're going to be in good order,

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Speaker 6: and at the end of this review, they're going to

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Speaker 6: be substantial savings for the American taxpayer.

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Speaker 13: Mister Secretary, you have experienced in currency markets, and now,

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Speaker 13: as in your new role, you oversee US currency policy.

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Speaker 13: I'd like to ask you what does a strong dollar mean?

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Speaker 3: To you.

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Speaker 6: Well, First of all, the strong dollar policy is completely

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Speaker 6: intact with President Trump, and I am very happy at

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Speaker 6: his Economic Club of New York speech in August when

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Speaker 6: he re emphasized the importance of maintaining the dollar reserve

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Speaker 6: currency status. But let's think about what does a strong

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Speaker 6: dollar mean. It really means four things. One that when

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Speaker 6: we think about a fiat currency, a piece of paper

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Speaker 6: is credibility. So a strong dollar is credibility and a

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Speaker 6: rule of law that.

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Speaker 7: Is backing it up. Too.

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Speaker 6: It means a composite price in the screen the Bloomberg

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Speaker 6: Currency Index, that is the dollar moving up against that. Three,

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Speaker 6: it is a bilateral price. So what's important to remember

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Speaker 6: is the dollar is either a week or strong versus

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Speaker 6: something else. So we want the dollar to be strong.

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Speaker 6: What we don't want is other countries to weaken their

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Speaker 6: currencies to manipulate their trade.

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Speaker 7: And then, fourth that we want to have.

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Speaker 6: The best policies that create the environment for a strong dollar.

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Speaker 13: Let's talk about other nations and how they manage their currencies.

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Speaker 13: The President has asked for a tariff study from several

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Speaker 13: of his cabinet officers or incoming cabinet officers. Do April first,

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Speaker 13: and the Treasury piece of that is to assess how

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Speaker 13: to handle when foreign nations manipulate their currencies. Do you

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Speaker 13: see any evidence of manipulation in foreign exchange rate markets

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Speaker 13: right now?

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Speaker 6: Well, well, wait till the study comes out. But I

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Speaker 6: think just intuitively, you and I could agree that when

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Speaker 6: you see the accumulation of these large surpluses that there

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Speaker 6: is not a free form trading system that's going. It

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Speaker 6: could be due to the level of the currency. It

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Speaker 6: could be due to trade restrictions, it could be due

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Speaker 6: to some interest rate repression policy.

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Speaker 7: So it could be any of those.

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Speaker 13: Are there any countries that you're monitoring or watching specifically

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Speaker 13: right now? I know the President in the past has

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Speaker 13: labeled China as a currency manipulator. Do you see any

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Speaker 13: other nations that need to be closely watched?

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Speaker 6: Well, I think we'll see on April first. And as

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Speaker 6: you know that China's the most imbalanced unbalanced economy in

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Speaker 6: the history of the world, and they are in a

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Speaker 6: deep recession right now. They're experience in deflation and they're

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Speaker 6: trying to export their way out of that, and we

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Speaker 6: can't allow that. We want fair trade, and part of

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Speaker 6: that is taking a strong position on the currency and

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Speaker 6: the terms of trade.

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Speaker 13: Mister Secretary, you said yesterday in an interview that the

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Speaker 13: Trump administration is more focused on long term gields than

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Speaker 13: what the Federal Reserve is doing, which is a bold statement.

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Speaker 13: I want to ask, how do you plan to keep

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Speaker 13: a lid on yields considering the deluge of debt issuance

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Speaker 13: that is coming down the pike and also some of

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Speaker 13: the inflationary risks that are ahead.

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Speaker 6: Well, one of the things I wanted to emphasize is

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Speaker 6: that we are not focused on the whether the Fed

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Speaker 6: is going to cut not cut.

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Speaker 7: What we are focused.

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Speaker 6: On is lowering rates, So we are less focused on

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Speaker 6: the specific of rate cuts and how do we get

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Speaker 6: the whole curve down. I mentioned that the tenure I

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Speaker 6: believe is the important price to focus on its mortgages,

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Speaker 6: it's long term capital formation. So and look, I think

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Speaker 6: with the President's policies of energy dominant, it's deregulation and

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Speaker 6: non inflationary growth, I think that the tenure is going

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Speaker 6: to naturally come down. And then look on top of it,

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Speaker 6: what if we do get some big savings on the

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Speaker 6: spending side from the dose programs like let's think of

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Speaker 6: a naive formula, government equals spending minus taxes for my

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Speaker 6: entire career and beyond, maybe even back to pre FDR

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Speaker 6: government equal spending minus taxes. The s the Republicans we

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Speaker 6: like spending.

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Speaker 7: We just wanted to raise it less.

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Speaker 6: The Democrats want to raise it more taxes. Democrats want

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Speaker 6: tax increases. We want tax cuts. What nobody's singing about

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Speaker 6: is what if the S actually went down? What if

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Speaker 6: it actually goes down because of everything we're doing right now?

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Speaker 13: But what about the inflation concerns that are stemming from

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Speaker 13: the tariffs and tariff threats.

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Speaker 6: Look that I'm not sure that where this narrative the

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Speaker 6: tariffs for the country putting on the tariffs is inflationary.

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Speaker 6: That we could have a small one time price adjustment

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Speaker 6: that as we saw in Trump one point zero, that

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Speaker 6: the deregulation and the other policies, we stayed right around

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Speaker 6: the Fed's target level.

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Speaker 7: So I'm unconcerned about that.

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Speaker 6: I think especially that China, now given all their excess capacity,

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Speaker 6: will no matter the level of the tariffs, will end

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Speaker 6: up eating quite a bit.

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Speaker 13: There's a lot of uncertainty around tariffs. We see them

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Speaker 13: threatened or signaled and that they're taken back. It appears

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Speaker 13: as if this administration might be unfriendly to businesses.

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Speaker 7: Is that right?

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Speaker 6: Really, I think it's just the opposite. I think this

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Speaker 6: is the pro business administration and history and everything we

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Speaker 6: are doing is going to increase the after tax return

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Speaker 6: capital and as a result, working Americans will have very

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Speaker 6: high real wage growth. That what we've seen over the

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Speaker 6: past four years is the government and government adjacent sectors

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Speaker 6: providing the employment growth. And why have we experienced a

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Speaker 6: supportability crisis? First there was a massive spending met by

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Speaker 6: increased regulation which caused inflation, and then government and government

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Speaker 6: adjacent jobs do not call real wage growth because they

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Speaker 6: move up at CPI. So I think that we are

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Speaker 6: going to not only be business friendly, but very very

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Speaker 6: friendly for working Americans.

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Speaker 13: We're seeing companies already under some stress from the tariff threats,

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Speaker 13: China is investigating Google, and also, as you know, are

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Speaker 13: well aware that business is like to be able to

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Speaker 13: plan ahead. But with so much policy uncertainty, that predictability

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Speaker 13: factor is gone. That all points to a little bit

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Speaker 13: of a tougher environment.

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Speaker 6: Well, look, I think the best thing we can do

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Speaker 6: for predictability is make the tax cuts and jobback permanent.

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Speaker 6: That would be the single best thing we could do

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Speaker 6: for predictability. We can go back to the one hundred

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Speaker 6: percent expencing and add some new features that I think

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Speaker 6: business is going.

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Speaker 7: To be very happy with.

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Speaker 6: But again the most important thing is that it filters

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Speaker 6: down to working wages, which is what we saw the

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Speaker 6: President Trump's first administration.

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Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast and the stories

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Speaker 7: And I'm Nathan Hager.

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