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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go throwing into we're sitting up

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Speaker 2: to catch still.

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Speaker 3: See the most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win.

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Speaker 2: God, that's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to

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Speaker 2: make money. All right, this is the ultimate kabata.

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Speaker 4: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Well, what's up everybody?

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 3: I'm your host, Chris Raybond of The Action Network. This

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Speaker 3: is your NFL Conference Championship Week preview. We will talk

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Speaker 3: about our favorite sides, totals, props, money lines, everything you

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Speaker 3: can think about, and of course crack open our Sunday

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Speaker 3: six pack of against the spread bets with the help

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Speaker 3: of my co host, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 2: What's going on?

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Speaker 4: Oh it's going on, brother, Yeah, it was a fun

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Speaker 4: week not for betting on here first and six right,

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Speaker 4: I think in three years so we were I guess

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Speaker 4: overdue the Ravens. I would play first half. I mean

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Speaker 4: I would play that a million times. There was a

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Speaker 4: pump return touchdown. This is arguably the greatest playoff defensive performance,

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Speaker 4: one of them in NFL history. I mean, they didn't

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Speaker 4: allow the Texans across the twenty seven yard line. They

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Speaker 4: gave up three offensive points. So you know, I played

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Speaker 4: San Fran. Bad call there, But Deebo going down man,

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Speaker 4: that is going to be. I mean some of the

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Speaker 4: numbers with him without him are really bad. And then

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Speaker 4: I just had an awful call on Godwin. But as

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Speaker 4: I always say, who cares what happened last week? Last

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Speaker 4: week was last week. We're on to conference championship weekend,

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Speaker 4: which is the first championship games took place fifty three

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Speaker 4: years ago in San Fran and Baltimore, which is where

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Speaker 4: we're at now. This is the first time the AFC

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Speaker 4: Championship game won't be played in Kansas City since twenty seventeen.

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Speaker 4: Six straight AFC type for the Chiefs, who are three

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Speaker 4: and two in the previous five. First home AFC champions

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Speaker 4: for someone who used have season tickets never so multiple

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Speaker 4: Super Bowls, first home AFC championship game for the Ravens

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Speaker 4: in franchise history, and the first NFC championship game for

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Speaker 4: the Lions since nineteen ninety one. So a lot of

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Speaker 4: fun storylines. I think we got two pretty good matchups

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Speaker 4: from what we could have got.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it should be a good, good weekend. I have

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Speaker 3: a lot of thoughts on both of these games. So

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Speaker 3: we'll get right into it into our six pack, and

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Speaker 3: for this week, same as last week, we have to

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Speaker 3: choose a side or total. The others can be props.

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Speaker 3: Stuck your up seventy three sixty six still and let

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Speaker 3: me just give everyone the lines for the two games

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Speaker 3: before we jump into the six pack. You have the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs at the Ravens. Ravens favored by three and a half.

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Speaker 3: That's the AFC title game, the total forty four and

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Speaker 3: a half. That's three pm Eastern. And then Lions at

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Speaker 3: Niners at six thirty Eastern, Niners favored by seven.

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Speaker 2: The total is fifty one.

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Speaker 3: All right, now it's time for our Conference Championship Sunday

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Speaker 3: six pack.

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Speaker 2: Thursday for action.

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Speaker 1: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 3: For my first pick in the first overall of the

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Speaker 3: Conference Championship Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Ravens

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Speaker 3: first half minus two and a half and hopefully we

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Speaker 3: get one out of two here. I know you were

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Speaker 3: on this last week, but I think that with the

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Speaker 3: Ravens kind of coming out slow last week.

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Speaker 2: They were a little bit unprepared for the Blitz.

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Speaker 3: I think now you know the rust is knocked off.

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Speaker 3: I'd be surprised if they come out slow for a

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Speaker 3: second week in a row. Baltimore first in the NFL

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Speaker 3: in first half point differential plus twelve point six, second

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Speaker 3: in the league in home first half point differential at

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Speaker 3: plus fifteen point one. That's over twelve points better than

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Speaker 3: Kansas City on the is on the road, which Kennasseity

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Speaker 3: is a pretty good road differential of plus three in

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Speaker 3: the first half, But Baltimore has just been ridiculous and.

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Speaker 2: I just like the matchup for the Ravens.

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Speaker 3: This is far and away the best pass defense the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs have faced. Their number one in Dvoa, Joe Tooney.

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Speaker 3: It looks like he's going to be out with a

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Speaker 3: peck injury, the guard on Casey's line, who is one

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Speaker 3: of the top guards, one of the top interior alignment

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Speaker 3: in the game, and Kansas City's.

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Speaker 2: Tackles have been really shaky. Smith and Taylor.

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Speaker 3: The interior has been good, but Joe Toney is a

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Speaker 3: big part of that. So you know, number one graded

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Speaker 3: pass blocker out of all guards, at PFF top ten

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Speaker 3: guard overall out of seventy eight qualify. And then when

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Speaker 3: I look at Okay Lamar going up against this Kansas

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Speaker 3: City defense, I think they'll be prepared for the blitz.

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Speaker 3: Bag's always gonna have something upously, but I think they'll

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Speaker 3: be more prepared for the blitz. Kansas City can cover,

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Speaker 3: Uh they're some of their receivers, but Kansas City twenty

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Speaker 3: seventh and Dvoa against the run, I think Gus Edwards,

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Speaker 3: Justice Hill Lamar will be able to run the football.

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Speaker 3: And then uh, you know, on the other side of

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Speaker 3: the ball again, I just don't think Kansas City with

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Speaker 3: you know, a weekend offensive line with a defense that

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Speaker 3: can man.

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Speaker 2: Up Rashid Rice.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I'll let you kind of speak to what

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Speaker 3: you think they're gonna do with Kelsey is they're gonna be Hamilton.

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Speaker 3: You know, Humphrey looks like he's going to be back,

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Speaker 3: so that you know, he's a guy who can play

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Speaker 3: inside outside, so he'd be perfect for Rice. You can

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Speaker 3: kind of stick him on Rice and play man coverage.

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Speaker 3: And that was always going to be I think Kansas

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Speaker 3: City's kryptonite when it got to the playoffs was a

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Speaker 3: defense that can play man and man coverage. Still get pressure.

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Speaker 3: You know, Baltimore, I believe they led the league in sacks.

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Speaker 3: Still get pressure and man these guys up on the

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Speaker 3: back end and be able to handle them.

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Speaker 2: Baltimore can do that. The Buffalo bill is a lot

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Speaker 2: more zone heavy. Miami. You know, their defense was decimated.

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Speaker 3: So this is going to be a real different test,

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Speaker 3: I think for Kansas City than they've faced all year,

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Speaker 3: because now you're combining this good defense with a with

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Speaker 3: an offense that can play ball control on the other side.

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Speaker 3: And we know that Lamar Harball have been great in

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Speaker 3: the first half, especially Lamar fifty one twenty nine to

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Speaker 3: two career first half against the spread, covered by an

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Speaker 3: average of two and a half points per game. Harball

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Speaker 3: super huge sample won sixty one ten with nine pushes,

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Speaker 3: fifty nine percent against the spread in his career in

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Speaker 3: the first half regular and postseason, and this year Lamar

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Speaker 3: Jackson thirteen and four in his starts. The Ravens are

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Speaker 3: thirteen and four against the spread in the first half

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Speaker 3: seventy seven percent, covering by nearly six points per game,

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Speaker 3: and they have not lost two straight first halfs against

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Speaker 3: the spread all seasons. So you know last week you

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Speaker 3: mentioned it got the kick return and just came out sluggish, slow, rusty,

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Speaker 3: weren't quite prepared for the blitz. I think they'll come

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Speaker 3: out sharp this week, and maybe you'll see a repeat

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Speaker 3: of you know, Chiefs Voodoo Ravens. Like you said, they

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Speaker 3: tend to play with their food, So I think this

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Speaker 3: might be one where it gets a little dicey later.

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Speaker 3: But I'm expecting the Ravens to start fast this one.

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Speaker 3: So give me Baltimore minus two and a half in

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Speaker 3: the first half.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I like this one. My I mean, as soon

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Speaker 4: as these lines, the lines came out of the files me.

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Speaker 4: I mean I've played the Ravens minus won sixty five

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Speaker 4: in the money line. I mean this late in the season.

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Speaker 4: I rarely, I mean to find that I thought it

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Speaker 4: was far off. It's pretty crazy. I mean I make

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Speaker 4: this line between four and a half and five, and

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Speaker 4: my fair for money line is north two hundred. So

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Speaker 4: you know when I look at this matchup, look, this

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Speaker 4: is the Ravens have been historically dominant this year. I mean,

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Speaker 4: you can go by any advanced but go by you

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Speaker 4: mentioned Dboa. They have the highest weighted Dboa which looks

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Speaker 4: at recent performances headed into this route of any team

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Speaker 4: since nineteen eighty eleven of the other top thirteen teams

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Speaker 4: all got to the Super Bowl. Interestingly enough, the only

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Speaker 4: two the only two teams to prevent those two two

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Speaker 4: of the two that didn't get to the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 4: Where Mahomes against the Bills because they couldn't squip kick it,

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Speaker 4: and then the Ravens actually beat the New England Patriots

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Speaker 4: back in twenty twelve under to their Super Bowl win.

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Speaker 4: So that's the Billy kind of No, that's them. That's

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Speaker 4: when they beat Brady.

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Speaker 3: Oh, that was the one when the Ravens want to

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Speaker 3: place the Niners, right, yeah, and then beat the ny.

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Speaker 4: So can the Chiefs win this game? Absolutely? I mean

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Speaker 4: I make this line with four and at so you're

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Speaker 4: talking like I think they win this game a third

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Speaker 4: of the time. They have the best quarterback on the planet.

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Speaker 4: We could run through all the underdog stats for the Chiefs,

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Speaker 4: and when Mahomes is an underdog are favored of you're

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Speaker 4: least the same thing as holds true for Lamar Jackson.

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Speaker 4: One of the best things that what I'm really looking

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Speaker 4: forward to in this game is just the x's and o's,

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Speaker 4: So like what it's First of all, it's one football game,

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Speaker 4: so you get a fluke turnovers, fourth down variants, fubble luck,

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Speaker 4: and then also just like an amazing game plan that

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Speaker 4: just completely changes the game that one team isn't expecting.

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Speaker 4: I think the Ravens are have a better chance of

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Speaker 4: doing that. You look at what they've done with their

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Speaker 4: staff this year, and I have nothing but respect for

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Speaker 4: Reid and Spagnola, but the adjustments that they've made based

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Speaker 4: on their opponent week on a week to week basis,

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Speaker 4: and look, they have an extra what day and a

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Speaker 4: half here, they're way more well rested, They're way healthier

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Speaker 4: and get Mark Andrews back, might get Marlon Humphrey back.

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Speaker 4: He practiced in full today. So they're just like almost

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Speaker 4: fully healthy across the board, and it's just a really

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Speaker 4: good matchup. People have to forget what the Ravens have

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Speaker 4: done this year. They went eight and two against playoff teams. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: the average score was thirty one to fourteen. Their last

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Speaker 4: seven home games were all against teams that finished above

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Speaker 4: five hundred. They won by an average score thirty eight

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Speaker 4: to seventeen. They played ten home games this year, they

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Speaker 4: were all against teams above five hundred, which is insane.

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Speaker 4: They had a better offensive, better defense, better speich teams

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Speaker 4: than the Chiefs will much tougher schedule in the best

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Speaker 4: division of football, a division where everyone finished above five

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Speaker 4: hundred for the first time, and I went sixty seventy years,

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Speaker 4: I forget the exact date the Chiefs first playoff teams.

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Speaker 4: On the other hand, three and four, they had a

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Speaker 4: net score margin a plus thirteen. They won by an

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Speaker 4: average of twenty one to nineteen. I think that there's

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Speaker 4: a little bit of recency buyas on. Okay, it's Mahomes

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Speaker 4: and you have to he's the goat. The last two weeks,

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Speaker 4: they beat the Dolphins team that was completely decimated, I

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Speaker 4: mean destroyed by injuries specifically on the defensive end, but

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Speaker 4: also somewhat on offense. And then they play the Bills

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Speaker 4: last week and you mentioned, you know how the Bills

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Speaker 4: play with all the injurs at a linebacker pregame and

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Speaker 4: then during the game you gotta play aj kleinb Aj

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Speaker 4: Klimb is getting absolutely destroyed out there, and they were exhausted,

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Speaker 4: They had no depth, and they just went heavy, you know,

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Speaker 4: they went twelve to thirteen personnel and they just cooked

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Speaker 4: them over the middle of the field. I'll get it

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Speaker 4: in my first pick and keep rambling. So my first

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Speaker 4: pick and the second ear brawl of the Suddy six

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Speaker 4: pack is Ravens Chiefs under forty four and a half.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna wait to see if forty five pops and

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Speaker 4: see where the market goes, but doesn't matter for this contest.

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Speaker 4: These were the two Both these teams were one to

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Speaker 4: two in scoring defense this year. Ravens allowed sixteen and

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Speaker 4: a half points per game, Chiefs right around seventeen point three.

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Speaker 4: I don't think the Chiefs get enough credit for what

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Speaker 4: their defense can and did do this season. I mean,

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Speaker 4: you're talking about a team that over the last seven

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Speaker 4: games they had four point one points per game in

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Speaker 4: the second half. So not only are they good, but

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Speaker 4: they they are making ridiculous adjustments at the half. Same

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Speaker 4: with the Ravens. That'll be an awesome chess match to watch.

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Speaker 4: You saw what the Ravens did last week, more quicker passes.

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Speaker 4: They adjusted the blitzer and just came out and it

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Speaker 4: just destroyed the Texans. But you know, so I like

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Speaker 4: this under because we have to remember this Chiefs offense,

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Speaker 4: which was held to under twenty one or fewer points

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Speaker 4: I think ten times in the regular season. They had

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Speaker 4: no exposedness all year. We talked about how often they

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Speaker 4: were broken, and now they just because they played, you know,

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Speaker 4: a beat up Dolphins D, a beat up Bills D.

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Speaker 4: By the way, on a short week, they kind of

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Speaker 4: got shafted in that sense as well. I don't think

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Speaker 4: everything is fixed. It's like you have to it's it's

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Speaker 4: Pacheco runs really hard and we'll see if it's turf

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Speaker 4: tow players up. But it's not an elite rushing attack.

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Speaker 4: It was the middle of the pack if you look

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Speaker 4: at it in the advanced metric. And I don't think

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Speaker 4: that they're going to shred the Ravens on the ground.

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Speaker 4: They and they have to play like in a box.

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Speaker 4: There's no exposed in its Ravens don't get up exposed

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Speaker 4: to pass plays. They have to play over the middle

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Speaker 4: of the field. Dolphins in that linebackers, Bills, the net linebackers.

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Speaker 4: It was just a perfect setup for the Chiefs. The

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Speaker 4: Ravens are perfectly set up with all their linebackers, with

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Speaker 4: all their safeties. You know, you get Hamilton in the slot.

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Speaker 4: Now you can play heavy nickel. You can play nickel

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Speaker 4: most of the game here and Ravens historically elite defense

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Speaker 4: when in nickel this year the way to beat the Ravens.

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Speaker 4: This year they have like the Ravens and look, like

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Speaker 4: I said, they've been historically dominant this year, just destroying

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Speaker 4: every team that they've played. There's like two weaknesses on

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Speaker 4: their team. It's I would say, on defense, if you

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Speaker 4: can get them into out of nickel and then throw

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Speaker 4: on them. That's what the Rams kind of did because

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Speaker 4: they're aren't great. They're corners, and I mean, if you'll

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Speaker 4: get Darby's like top five and in yards per reception allowed,

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Speaker 4: top five and reception rate this year. Humphrey's obviously still elite.

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Speaker 4: We'll see how healthy he is. But you know Malette,

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Speaker 4: he's grading out really well. You know this. They're safety

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Speaker 4: Brandon Stevens, they're not Their corners are not elite. But

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Speaker 4: Mike McDonald doesn't ask them to do much in this teame.

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Speaker 4: They don't do much underneath, they're not has to do much.

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Speaker 4: But if you can get them in base, you get Hamilton,

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Speaker 4: who's just the probably the best playmaker on defense. The

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Speaker 4: NFLR now you can get them off the field out

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Speaker 4: of the slot and you have to play with another

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Speaker 4: linebacker and then you throw in them. That's really where

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Speaker 4: they've shown some weaknesses in a couple of games this year.

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Speaker 4: But I mean the Chiefs. I think that the Ravens,

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Speaker 4: especially with Humphrey and his physicality and haveing, he can

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Speaker 4: stay and nickel most of this game. If not, you know,

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Speaker 4: a majority of it, you're not going to play the

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Speaker 4: entire game. But even if the Chiefs did that, like

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Speaker 4: who are they who are they throwing to right? It's

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Speaker 4: not like they have these It's not like you have

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Speaker 4: Cup and Nakua on the outside to take advantage of

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Speaker 4: some of the Ravens corners if you can get enough time.

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Speaker 4: So I just don't see. I just look. I think

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Speaker 4: this Chiefs offense is going to look how it has

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Speaker 4: for most of the year when it wasn't playing the

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Speaker 4: best defense in the NFL. We're gonna talk about the

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Speaker 4: Niners a little bit. The Niners, with a healthy debot

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Speaker 4: Samuel lost one game this year. They scored twenty seven

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Speaker 4: or more. In every game they scored twelve before Sam

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Speaker 4: Darnold had a garbage drive against the Ravens date, the

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Speaker 4: Texans destroyed the second best defense the NFL. The Browns

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Speaker 4: week before didn't score an offensive touchdown last week against

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Speaker 4: the Ravens. So like, this defense is very good. They

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Speaker 4: can get pressure without blitzing. And the way that they're

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Speaker 4: getting pressure, I mean, it's unbelieve Babuke is turned. He's

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Speaker 4: gonna get absolutely paid. But how they're blowing up certain

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Speaker 4: guards and you know, just like blocking, they're like blocking

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Speaker 4: up offensive linemen to free up. But they're pressure schemes

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Speaker 4: that are simulated pressures are amazing. They're not that they

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Speaker 4: don't have to go cover zero blitz, cover one blitz here.

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Speaker 4: You don't want to all off blitz Mahomes. Don't expect

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Speaker 4: them to do that. They'll bring it a couple of

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Speaker 4: times to keep Mahomes honest. But they can cover the

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Speaker 4: middle of the field, and you know they have multiple

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Speaker 4: guys that can cover Kelsey number one. The linebackers will

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Speaker 4: be okay there. You can have Hamilton on them it

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Speaker 4: sometimes you can have Humphrey on them at times. And

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Speaker 4: their corners are perfectly equipped to cover the receivers on

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Speaker 4: the outside. And this this Chief's offense, we talked about

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Speaker 4: all here. Why do they struggle? Their tackles have been

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Speaker 4: bad penalties too, you know, the holdings, the false starts,

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Speaker 4: and now you're taking away Joe Toney in the interior.

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Speaker 4: I know Agile. I always forgot. I always forget. How

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Speaker 4: pronounce his name? Gary? Al Gary? I think.

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Speaker 2: It didn't sound right. Let's figure this out. I think

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Speaker 2: it's I thought it was Alan Gretty. But let's see.

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Speaker 4: I have a friend whose name is just Yeah Allegretty,

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Speaker 4: Nick Allegretty. Yeah, he's played before. He's I think he's

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Speaker 4: really a center. But it's a huge it's a big

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Speaker 4: drop off. It's not massive, but it's a big drop off.

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Speaker 4: And it's a big drop off when you're going against

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Speaker 4: this defense with all the stunts, simulated pressures on, you know,

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Speaker 4: in a loud environment and yeah, on the road. And

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Speaker 4: this chief offensive line has had continuity all year and

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Speaker 4: it's been one of the strengths that in tiers had

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Speaker 4: continuity helps with some of the issues that tackle. But

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Speaker 4: if you can get pressure up the middle on the homes,

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Speaker 4: that's that's a kryptonite, right, You get pressure and you're

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Speaker 4: not flitzing up the middle. So I think the Ravens

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Speaker 4: are going to be able to do that here, and

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Speaker 4: they're perfectly equipped to cover the Chiefs on the back end.

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Speaker 4: So I don't see the Chiefs offense having much success here.

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Speaker 4: It's still Mahomes. I'm still gonna make plays. It's the

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Speaker 4: best quarterback on planet Earth. But we've seen this offense

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Speaker 4: don't fall into recently. Buyas look completely pedestrian for long,

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Speaker 4: long stretches of the season, and they weren't playing against

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Speaker 4: the best defense the NFL on the other side of

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Speaker 4: the wall. So I think the Chiefs, because of the

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Speaker 4: last two weeks plaining beat up defenses, people are just like, oh, Mahomes,

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Speaker 4: the offense, it's back, Kelsey's back. This offense has issues.

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Speaker 4: It still does. The tackles, the wide receivers aren't great.

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Speaker 4: Now you're missing tuning in the middle, and you know

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Speaker 4: the Ravens are getting comported back on the other side.

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Speaker 4: You know, Ravens getting Andrews back, which is big. But

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Speaker 4: the Chiefs, this is the they number one there. They

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Speaker 4: don't play a ton of zone right, so like was

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Speaker 4: one of the things that the Ravens have destroyed zone

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Speaker 4: all year, So that that's working, that works for them.

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Speaker 4: And they will blitz, and that's what you need to do.

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Speaker 4: The Mahomes you can't. You can't blitz incessantly. That's what

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Speaker 4: you need to do to Jackson. Just try to throw

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Speaker 4: them off. But you can't sit back and then play zone.

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Speaker 4: How they decide to spy him is going to be interesting.

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Speaker 4: I don't like, do they try to use Willie Gay

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Speaker 4: as a spy? Do they try to use a safety

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Speaker 4: of times? Because you can't spying spine Jackson is is

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Speaker 4: dumb in my opinion. You want to spy him just

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Speaker 4: like for a little bit and then you got to

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Speaker 4: get after him because he's just too fast. It's it

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Speaker 4: doesn't make your spine him. You're wasting a defender. The

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Speaker 4: Steelers the Browns have done this really well though, like

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Speaker 4: just spy for a little bit and then send send

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Speaker 4: the linebacker. So I'm really curious to see how the

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Speaker 4: Chiefs handle that. But they have well Jerry Snead who's

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Speaker 4: been one of the best corners in the NFL. On

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Speaker 4: the outside for Flowers, you have McDuffie who's been one

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Speaker 4: of the best slots in the NFL. There and look,

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Speaker 4: this is a defense that, like I said, it is

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Speaker 4: number two scoring defense the NFL. Their adjustments have been great.

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Speaker 4: I think that all have a good blitz game game plan,

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Speaker 4: so I don't think that the Ravens are going to

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Speaker 4: put up like you know, thirty five thirty eight. Here.

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Speaker 4: There are two weaknesses of this Chiefs defense by far,

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Speaker 4: number two receivers. They're I think twenty fourth DVOA against

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Speaker 4: number two receivers and then against the run the number

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Speaker 4: twenty seven. You could throw your running backs a bit too,

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Speaker 4: but specifically they're one of the worst defense the NFL

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Speaker 4: against runs out of the shotgun and then just straight

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Speaker 4: power runs. So this will probably leadn't do it. I

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Speaker 4: think you're one of your picks. This is a big

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Speaker 4: Gus Edwards game. I'll give people a same game partlight

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Speaker 4: that I'm gonna put it in myself and how I

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Speaker 4: see it. This is playing out so Ravens money line under.

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Speaker 4: If it doesn't get the forty five, I'll just do

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Speaker 4: it all all under like forty five and a half.

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Speaker 4: Bateman you can go like over nineteen and a half

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Speaker 4: receiving yards. He's taken Beckham's snaps last week. He basically

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Speaker 4: just took them all Mets because he will actually run

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Speaker 4: block maybe agus edwards like over rushing yards you're gonna

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Speaker 4: talk about, or anytime touchdown, like if there are anywhere

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Speaker 4: near the four, you're just gonna go in shotgun hand

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Speaker 4: film and he's gonna score.

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Speaker 3: The reason I like you're under two is because first

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Speaker 3: half under especially because the interesting thing is the Ravens,

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Speaker 3: like really their only weakness on defense has been early

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Speaker 3: down runs because they love to they love to stay

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Speaker 3: in those light fronts. They don't like to go in

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Speaker 3: the base. So you know, since week ten they are

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Speaker 3: one of the worst teams in EPA and success rate

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Speaker 3: against the run on early downs if you include week eighteen,

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Speaker 3: they're actually bottom three, but that you know, they weren't

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Speaker 3: playing for real that week. But there's still twentieth and

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Speaker 3: EPA twenty fifth in an early down rush success rate

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Speaker 3: at forty one percent since week ten. So I think

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs are going to run it back with you know,

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Speaker 3: Noah Gray, Blake Bell and try to run the ball

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Speaker 3: and see see if the Ravens do get out of base.

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Speaker 3: But I think that's going to kind of, you know,

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Speaker 3: bleed the clock because the Ravens are going to want

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Speaker 3: to do the same thing on the other side, So

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Speaker 3: I think you have both teams to round wanted to run.

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Speaker 4: Chiefs are necessarily fast, either.

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Speaker 2: Two teams coming out that want to run.

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Speaker 3: And then I totally agree with you on with Jarius Sneed,

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Speaker 3: one of my favorite corners in the league going up

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Speaker 3: against Flowers. I actually crunched the numbers because I need

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Speaker 3: to do this to kind of adjust my projections for

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Speaker 3: these kind of situations. Kansas City against number one wide receivers,

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Speaker 3: the top five and DVOA, but I actually ran the

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Speaker 3: numbers on their actual rate stats. I looked at the

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Speaker 3: wide receiver ones they faced and then how those wide

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Speaker 3: receiver ones did against everyone else. So essentially, Kansas City

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Speaker 3: against wide receiver ones, target per route run rate drops

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Speaker 3: four percent from twenty two percent versus KC twenty six

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Speaker 3: percent against everyone else. Their catch rate drops thirteen percent,

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Speaker 3: sixty eight percent versus everyone else, fifty five percent versus CAC,

431
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:48,560
Speaker 3: and their yard per reception two and a half yards

432
00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 3: per reception less ten point four against KC twelve point

433
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:57,760
Speaker 3: nine versus everyone else. So you know, that's pretty massive,

434
00:22:57,760 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 3: and that kind of plays exactly into what you said

435
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,719
Speaker 3: about it's probably gonna have to be someone else and

436
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:03,919
Speaker 3: not Jay Flowers.

437
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:09,120
Speaker 4: My second pick of the Cofferd champions Ship six pack

438
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:12,680
Speaker 4: and third overall is I'm going to Zay Flowers under

439
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,960
Speaker 4: four and a half catches, so I prefer that to yards.

440
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 4: We talk about his catcher. Its seeds a very aggressive corner,

441
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:20,960
Speaker 4: you know, and he can kind of you know, body

442
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:23,919
Speaker 4: him up at the line of scrimmage, throw off his timing.

443
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 4: He's got forty seven catches on ninety three targets, which

444
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:28,159
Speaker 4: is elite. In eighteen games. It's like two and a

445
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 4: half and he's playing the number one most of the time,

446
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 4: and I expect him to do so here. That's like,

447
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:36,240
Speaker 4: and even if you put Flowers in the slot sometimes

448
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:40,159
Speaker 4: then you're going up against an elite slot corner. So like,

449
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 4: I don't think that Flowers gonna have many advantageous matchups here.

450
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 4: But he's allowed like two and a half catches on

451
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 4: five targets, mainly against number one receivers against eighteen over

452
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:53,120
Speaker 4: eighteen games. The other thing is that because he's super

453
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 4: aggressive like he I think he probably leads to the

454
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:57,919
Speaker 4: league in pass deflections. Don't quote me on that passes defense.

455
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 4: He gets a ton of penalties, so I think he

456
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:03,159
Speaker 4: leads all corners and penalties, so I think he has

457
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:08,280
Speaker 4: seventeen penalties. So there's a chance that you know, Lamar

458
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 4: buys time, Flowers gets behind the defense, hits a big

459
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:16,080
Speaker 4: play and this wouldn't hurt the yards or catches that

460
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 4: he gets behind him and Seed he's playing aggressive and

461
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:20,199
Speaker 4: there's a big PI which would help the Ravens but

462
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 4: could take away a catch. Yeah, I like under four

463
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,160
Speaker 4: and a half catches. We have a whole data set

464
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 4: of who these teams are, and I think the Ravens

465
00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:30,160
Speaker 4: should be like four and a half fish point favorites here.

466
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 3: Their point differential against playoff teams is just absurd. I mean,

467
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 3: every good team they face pretty much blew them out

468
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:39,640
Speaker 3: of the water multiple scores.

469
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 4: This is football porn because there's so many good coaches

470
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 4: and steamers in this. So I'm just telling you, like

471
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 4: I bet there is my line because I like some

472
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:52,400
Speaker 4: of the matchups. My numbers said to bet them money line.

473
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 4: W I mean, and I would have bet minus two

474
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:56,360
Speaker 4: and a half minus three, So if it comes back

475
00:24:56,359 --> 00:25:00,400
Speaker 4: down with Mahomes, money minus three is fine. But I'm

476
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,399
Speaker 4: telling you I've seen this with brilliant coaches, I'm brilliant

477
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 4: coordinators in huge games like this that just they could

478
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 4: come up with a they could come up with a

479
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:16,680
Speaker 4: scheme or wrinkle that either controls the game or just forces,

480
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:20,000
Speaker 4: you know, a couple of key mistakes and changes the

481
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:23,159
Speaker 4: whole game. So so I'm so looking forward to just

482
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 4: the chess match and the schematic battle.

483
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 2: I'll take any of motherfucker's money if he giving it away.

484
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, So that kind of leads into my next two picks.

485
00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 3: So for my second pick and the I guess fourth. Overall,

486
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 3: I'm going with Lamar Jackson under a half of interception,

487
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 3: and I like this up to minus one fifty. I

488
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:49,880
Speaker 3: think that's where the fair value should be. It's at

489
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 3: minus one twenty minus one twenty five across the industry

490
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 3: right now. So Lamar Jackson has not thrown a pick

491
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 3: in sixty five five percent of his games this season,

492
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:05,880
Speaker 3: eleven of seventeen, and he's had twenty seven or fewer

493
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:09,160
Speaker 3: pass attempts in ten of seventeen games. Now, I already talked,

494
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 3: we both already talked about how we think that this

495
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 3: is a matchup that sets up Baltimore well to come

496
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 3: out run heavy Kansas City is a run funnel defense.

497
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 3: Number five in DVOA against the pass, twenty seventh against

498
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:28,400
Speaker 3: the run, Lamar finished top five, and he's top five

499
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 3: right now, excuse me, in the lowest interception rate among

500
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 3: qualified quarterbacks at just a hair under one point five percent,

501
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:38,359
Speaker 3: which is right around what he's been doing for his

502
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:42,359
Speaker 3: whole career. And Kansas City, as good as their pass

503
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 3: defense has been, they really haven't been able.

504
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 2: To make a ton of plays on the ball.

505
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:52,359
Speaker 3: There one point four to two percent interception rate force

506
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 3: lowest in the league. They've not secured an interception in

507
00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 3: sixty three percent of their games or twelve out a

508
00:26:59,880 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 3: night nineteen. And this is not the old Kansas City

509
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,879
Speaker 3: of years past, where their offense was just lightened people

510
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,640
Speaker 3: up and so opponents had to throw against them. Opponents

511
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:13,040
Speaker 3: are averaging just under thirty three pass attempts per game

512
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:15,919
Speaker 3: against the Chiefs this year, or did so in the

513
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 3: regular season, and you know that's twenty third. So you

514
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:22,160
Speaker 3: got Lamar in a situation where I don't think he's

515
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:24,480
Speaker 3: going to have to attempt a lot of passes. We

516
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 3: both you know, we think the Ravens will be in

517
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 3: positive game script. He's already not attempted many passes, very

518
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:33,440
Speaker 3: low interception rate. Defense has a very low interception rate.

519
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 3: So you put it all together and I'm projecting just

520
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:40,879
Speaker 3: over a sixty percent chance of him not throwing a

521
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 3: pick in this game. So I like anything minus one

522
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 3: fifty or under for Lamar not to throw a pick here.

523
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:58,200
Speaker 4: Detroit Fast Aways is nineteen ninety one to get the

524
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:00,680
Speaker 4: NSC Championship game, and they're like, against talk about our game.

525
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:03,120
Speaker 3: We'll get into that one, but that one, I mean,

526
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:05,359
Speaker 3: there's actually more to talk about because it's a little

527
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:09,199
Speaker 3: bit more uncertainty there. But for my third pick of

528
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 3: the Conference Championship six pack, I'm going with Gus Edwards

529
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 3: over thirty nine and a half rushing yards. And this

530
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,479
Speaker 3: is pretty much the bottom of the market for Gus

531
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 3: and I might have contributed to it because early in

532
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:25,679
Speaker 3: the week, you know, Sean and I are talking on

533
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:28,160
Speaker 3: the pod on the Fantasy Flex and I was saying, hey,

534
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 3: you know, last week, my one of my my dark

535
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 3: throat was Justice Hill, and I was like, any given

536
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 3: week Justice Hill ended up being their feature back. You

537
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 3: just never know, and it kind of happened last week.

538
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 3: But what I didn't realize. And I saw a tweet

539
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 3: from I think Pro Football Network that Gus was actually

540
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 3: getting his hand with that.

541
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:49,920
Speaker 2: So he came out of the game.

542
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 4: I heard, I heard you listen. I heard the and

543
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 4: I was going to tell you this that he actually

544
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 4: out snapped. He had ten carries to Hill's nine and

545
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:01,240
Speaker 4: the third up at his hand and then they just

546
00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:03,880
Speaker 4: procrassed and I kept him out for the fourth quarter

547
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 4: because there's no reason to put him back in. So

548
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 4: I'm glad you exactly.

549
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 3: So, yeah, so I think, And it doesn't seem like

550
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 3: the books have like the books are kind of just

551
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 3: going off like last game too, so they've been lowering

552
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 3: his like prop I think I saw it at like

553
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:20,280
Speaker 3: forty one.

554
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 2: Forty.

555
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 3: People probably have been hitting the under just thinking, you know,

556
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 3: it's a toss up. Maybe Dalvin Cook it's gonna get

557
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 3: more involved. He had eight carries last week. But to

558
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 3: your point, when Gus left the game last week, Gus

559
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 3: had ten, Justice had eight.

560
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 2: Cook had zero.

561
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 3: That is pretty much in line with what we would

562
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 3: normally expect, uh for the carry share between Gus and Hill,

563
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:48,480
Speaker 3: which is Gus around you know, fifty five sixty percent,

564
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 3: Hill thirty five forty percent, and and then Cook was

565
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 3: essentially just kind of filling in for the Gus role.

566
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 2: So like, really it's more like you know, eighteen thirteen.

567
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 3: But uh so, I have it kind of back where

568
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:04,080
Speaker 3: I would have initially had it, you know before last week,

569
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 3: which is, you know, Gus getting about fifty five percent

570
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 3: of the backfield carries, which is still conservative. He gets

571
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 3: more than that sometimes, but uh so, I have his

572
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 3: rushing yardage in the above forty five. So I like

573
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 3: anything up to forty three and a half for this one.

574
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 3: If you can't get that, I would suggest going with

575
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 3: you know, a little bit of a longer shot, because

576
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:29,840
Speaker 3: I think you and I both agree that this could

577
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 3: be a big Gus game. So if you can't get

578
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 3: the median, you know, maybe go for you know a

579
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 3: sixty plus, eighty plus or even one hundred plus if

580
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 3: you want to get crazy, because again, this Kansas City

581
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 3: defense is bottom six against the run. You know, they

582
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 3: just lost an interior defender.

583
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 2: I believe in Nadi. I don't think he's I think

584
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 2: he's banged up. I don't think he's gonna play.

585
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 3: But I think this is a power run game, and

586
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 3: this kind of sets up for a big Gus game.

587
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,480
Speaker 2: They're a favorite. They you know, they.

588
00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:00,760
Speaker 3: Should and he should start fast than last week because

589
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 3: last week they didn't really get to do much. I

590
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 3: mean it was just like ugly in the uh in

591
00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:07,760
Speaker 3: the first half, so you know, it was like one,

592
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 3: you know, one step forward, two steps back. So you know,

593
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 3: Gus could get this over thirty nine and a half.

594
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 3: I mean, if things go right, he could get this

595
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 3: by halftime and it you know, he could easily pop

596
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:22,480
Speaker 3: an explosive. I think the Chiefs are still going to

597
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 3: have to kind of you know, guard against the pass

598
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 3: and make and Lamar Jackson running, and so Gus is

599
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 3: going to have a lot of a lot of opportunities here.

600
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 3: And he's had forty or more yards in all but

601
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 3: five of his games this season, and then he's had

602
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 3: forty eight or more in the eleven of eighteen. Wait, no,

603
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 3: if we played nineteen games, right, so that's twelve, nineteen,

604
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 3: twelve of nineteen, he's had at least forty eight. So

605
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 3: I think he is a really good bet to hit

606
00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 3: the over thirty nine. I think it's really good up

607
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 3: to forty three and a half because you're looking essentially

608
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 3: for you know, eleven carries forty four yards. You know,

609
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 3: I think he can average more than four yards to carry.

610
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 3: But that's kind of where I would personally better too.

611
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 3: But we've already talked about it. Love Gus sets up

612
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:16,400
Speaker 3: as a big gust game, and I don't think people

613
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 3: realize that the reason he came out was more precautionary

614
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 3: in that like, this is not the true carry split

615
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 3: going forward. It's pretty much what it has been in

616
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 3: the past, which is, you know us about sixty sixty forty.

617
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 3: This podcast is proudly presented by Bett MGM used bonus

618
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:38,200
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619
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,960
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620
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621
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Speaker 3: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

622
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623
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:58,800
Speaker 3: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler.

624
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 4: So for my pick and the sixth overall the Championship

625
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 4: Sunday six pack, I'm going with Eric Armstead over zero

626
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 4: point twenty five sacks. You can find this plus one

627
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 4: forty five out there. I figured would get a little

628
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 4: weird with a defensive prop. But a lot of reasons

629
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:19,760
Speaker 4: why I like this. One, pressure rate has gone through

630
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:22,320
Speaker 4: the roof when the entire defensive line is healthy for

631
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 4: San Francisco, and that happened again last week. Sacks weren't there,

632
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 4: but the pressure rate was also during the regular season

633
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:33,480
Speaker 4: EPA with Armstead on the field negative point one four.

634
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 4: That's elite plus point zero two without him, still very good,

635
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 4: but not extremely elite. And they did it last They

636
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 4: got I think they got pressure on like forty two

637
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 4: percent of Loves dropbacks and they weren't even blitzing. And

638
00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 4: that's against a very good offensive line. Major key here though,

639
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 4: is no Jonah Jackson. That's a huge loss. Frank Brightnan

640
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 4: was also beat up. I mean, he's like a.

641
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 3: Not good because now you're talking about interior pressure against

642
00:33:58,240 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 3: goff which.

643
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 4: Is and is not mobile, and he will just he'll

644
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 4: fall into the arms of multiple defenders here. If they're

645
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 4: getting pressure up the middle, just look to drop off.

646
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:12,960
Speaker 4: So there's a couple offensive line injuries. And by the way,

647
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:14,759
Speaker 4: I didn't evention this with the Ravens, John Simpsons the

648
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:16,839
Speaker 4: weak point of their offensive line, So like, can Chris

649
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:20,600
Speaker 4: Jones create a play that's something else to watch there?

650
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:22,400
Speaker 4: I mean, he basically won the Bills game by getting

651
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 4: the Josh Allen. But there's a couple offensive line like

652
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 4: interior injuries guys missing that are that could swing these games.

653
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:34,360
Speaker 4: With Tony being out, likely we'll see even if he

654
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:37,400
Speaker 4: plays like a peck, probably not going to be anywhere the.

655
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:38,759
Speaker 2: Report he's going to be out like that.

656
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think he's going to be out, but I'm

657
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 4: saying even if he tries to go. And then with

658
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:46,960
Speaker 4: Jonah Jackson, who was playing extremely well, it's not just

659
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:50,480
Speaker 4: the drop off, isn't the drop off is more extreme

660
00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:52,960
Speaker 4: than what the Chiefs have to deal with. Because I

661
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 4: was sick of last week. Seven pressures on twenty eight

662
00:34:56,200 --> 00:35:01,000
Speaker 4: pass blocking snaps. That's bad. Jonah Jackson zero and eighteen,

663
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 4: So you know, and now you're going hostile environment on

664
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:10,800
Speaker 4: the road, that continuity has gone like there's gonna be

665
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 4: some stunts and armstead. He would have hit this he

666
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 4: played ten games a season, he would have hit it

667
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:18,360
Speaker 4: in five. He would have hit it in six of

668
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:22,320
Speaker 4: ten postseason games. His seven sacks in ten postseason games.

669
00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:23,919
Speaker 4: And by the way, you don't need a full sack here,

670
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:29,800
Speaker 4: just you have yeah. Yep. Also trailing game. The gamescript

671
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 4: is the lines are most likely trailing, more pass attempts,

672
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:37,040
Speaker 4: more known passing downs, and so I think he's gonna

673
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:39,480
Speaker 4: have Armstead usually shows up in these games. I think

674
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:43,560
Speaker 4: he's gonna plus matchups and you have just an immobile

675
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 4: golf with interior pressure in a trailing game script, I

676
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 4: think Armstead is going to have plenty of opportunities to

677
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 4: get sacked. A lot of variants in a bet like this,

678
00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:55,239
Speaker 4: but I think that just for him to get a

679
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 4: half a sack at close to plus one fifty, I

680
00:35:57,040 --> 00:36:00,160
Speaker 4: think the price should be a little lower. So oh,

681
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 4: I bet arm set over zero point two five sacks

682
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 4: plus one forty five. I and then when it comes

683
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 4: to this game, curious to get your thoughts on it.

684
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:16,359
Speaker 4: So that like the Jackson injury looms super large because

685
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:19,879
Speaker 4: it's like the San Francisco with their full defensive line

686
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 4: arsenal now and if you look at their numbers with

687
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:24,239
Speaker 4: everyone this year, because remember then they added Chase Young

688
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 4: and Armstead was heard. But the difference between when they

689
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 4: have their full arsenal defensive linemen versus not is stark.

690
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 4: Even you know, it's a lot of noise emphasizes isn't great,

691
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 4: but it obviously makes sense why they would be so

692
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:38,879
Speaker 4: much better. You can't double uh, you know, bosas much,

693
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:40,920
Speaker 4: and you have to worry about more league guys and

694
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:44,759
Speaker 4: their depth isn't great along the defensive line. And you know,

695
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 4: the good thing is GoF won't have to deal with

696
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:48,359
Speaker 4: bunch of weather here. You know, people are gonna say

697
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:51,239
Speaker 4: it's outdoors a little slower track, but it's not gonna

698
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:53,759
Speaker 4: be wind or so it doesn't really matter that much here.

699
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 4: So that's a good that's good news for the Lions.

700
00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:01,440
Speaker 4: On San Francisco side, It's and I spent a lot

701
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:03,759
Speaker 4: of time on this with it's is Deebo. Sam will

702
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 4: go to play so and if he does play, like

703
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 4: how effective is going to it. There's a lot of

704
00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 4: noise in these numbers, but just I'll go into that.

705
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:13,719
Speaker 4: But with Deebo, they're the seventy percent win percentage. They're

706
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:16,839
Speaker 4: averaging about twenty seven points per game, so for about

707
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:19,759
Speaker 4: seventy five games, rushing for about one hundred and forty

708
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 4: yards plus eight turnover differential. Without him, they're eight and nine,

709
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 4: averaging about the field goal less, about twenty yards less,

710
00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 4: fewer rushing yards, and then negative eight turnover differential. This

711
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 4: year with him with a full debo, they went twelve

712
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:38,279
Speaker 4: and one, thirty two point three points per game, got

713
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:40,160
Speaker 4: to at least twenty seven in every game. The only

714
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 4: one they did was against Baltimore. Without him or when

715
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 4: he was limited, they went one in four. They only

716
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:49,920
Speaker 4: averaged nineteen points per game. They never eclipsed twenty four points.

717
00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:52,319
Speaker 4: They scored seventeen three times. They should have lost last week.

718
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 4: They really should have been zero to five. Now. The

719
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:58,200
Speaker 4: other why there's some noise in there is the stamp

720
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:00,440
Speaker 4: sizes isn't great. And also a Trent Williams injured.

721
00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:02,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, it was like a cluster of injuries yea, and

722
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 3: Party was I don't know if he was like concussed

723
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:08,879
Speaker 3: the after effects, but it was like he was dealing

724
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:09,480
Speaker 3: with injuries.

725
00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:10,760
Speaker 2: Trent was dealing with injuries.

726
00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 4: Yeah.

727
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 3: I think McCaffrey was even banged up in there, like

728
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 3: everyone was. Everyone got hurt at the same time. So yeah,

729
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 3: it is, but you just just.

730
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, you've seen in this past and we just know,

731
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:23,600
Speaker 4: I mean last week, just look at the offense. I mean,

732
00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:25,400
Speaker 4: he only played ten snaps, he had two targets at

733
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 4: thirty thirty yards. He's gonna have a big day and

734
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:31,280
Speaker 4: their offense changes, their run game becomes it's more dynamic.

735
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:33,279
Speaker 4: It's he's it's harder to defend when he's in there.

736
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 4: Obviously he's a weapon yards after catch. It makes their whole,

737
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:40,799
Speaker 4: you know, offense so much more difficult to defend. So

738
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 4: you're gonna see a lot of numbers out there about

739
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:45,279
Speaker 4: the difference with him without there's a lot of noise

740
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 4: in there, and it's a bit inflated because of you know,

741
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 4: Trent Williams obviously the best left tackle in football. And

742
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:54,239
Speaker 4: without Trim Williams, offensive line turns to dust. But it's

743
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 4: obviously a major, major loss. He's super important in a

744
00:38:58,600 --> 00:39:02,400
Speaker 4: number of different ways. So you know, I make this

745
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:06,800
Speaker 4: a little over seven. I you know, San Francisco, I

746
00:39:06,840 --> 00:39:09,839
Speaker 4: think close to seven and a half point favorites here.

747
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:13,719
Speaker 4: I downgreaded them after last week. The debo injury just

748
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:17,840
Speaker 4: gives me a little bit of pause because the Lions

749
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:22,200
Speaker 4: run dye is good and it's been good yeah, number one, Yeah,

750
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 4: number one, d b A. They got a couple hiccups,

751
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:26,320
Speaker 4: But I mean every do Oflphense or Gena's gonna have

752
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 4: a couple of hiccups in any facet during you know,

753
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 4: you know, nineteen twenty games, so you know it. I

754
00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:35,880
Speaker 4: think what this will come down to, and especially if

755
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:40,360
Speaker 4: you don't have to worry about Samuel is can you

756
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 4: know golf just cook like every quarterback has been cooked?

757
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:48,960
Speaker 4: Excuse me? Can can party cook? Like every quarterback has

758
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:52,799
Speaker 4: been cooking against this line secondary over the past what

759
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 4: six seven weeks? They give up? They give a three

760
00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:57,719
Speaker 4: and fife yards every every week, including last week. So

761
00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:01,680
Speaker 4: from a uh here your thoughts on the side in total?

762
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:05,440
Speaker 4: And also does this lend itself? I think you mentioned

763
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 4: this on the Player Projections episode. Check out if you haven't,

764
00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:12,239
Speaker 4: but this could be a big aut game similar to

765
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 4: like all the number one receivers who have been going

766
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:17,719
Speaker 4: off and do we potentially look at like what do

767
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:21,600
Speaker 4: you where do you have McCaffrey at like, because if

768
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 4: you know the Lions can defend the run the I

769
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:27,640
Speaker 4: think Shannon's probably gonna come out here and throw like

770
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:32,440
Speaker 4: everyone is doing against the Lions. But then you know

771
00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 4: it's your game script is most like you're gonna be

772
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 4: up handing it to him. But I think I think

773
00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:39,279
Speaker 4: I saw his player proper around ninety somewhere around there.

774
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 4: I was like, that's I know, you could just make

775
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:43,080
Speaker 4: a break one at any time, but I feel like

776
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:47,080
Speaker 4: that's high against this. This line's run dye thinking about

777
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 4: how this is going to play out. And then when

778
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 4: you when you don't have deep other run offense isn't

779
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:54,759
Speaker 4: as dynamic and it's a little easier to defend. But

780
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:59,000
Speaker 4: then he would maybe take some carries too. So I

781
00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:02,800
Speaker 4: couldn't come to and I don't I'm not a prop expert,

782
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 4: but I couldn't. I couldn't get there. And I thought

783
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:09,319
Speaker 4: about McCaffrey under I thought about some overs, but I

784
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:11,080
Speaker 4: never got there. So what are your thoughts on this

785
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:13,719
Speaker 4: game and any of those props or anything else.

786
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, So the reason I have three picks from the

787
00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 3: Ravens Chiefs game is because I don't want to weigh

788
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 3: the points not knowing what's going on with Debo yet,

789
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:30,960
Speaker 3: I wouldn't wouldn't actually mind welaying the seven if if

790
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:34,720
Speaker 3: Gebo was in, just because you know, bounce back spot,

791
00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 3: and I don't think that the Lions could keep up

792
00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:42,760
Speaker 3: with a healthy nine er offense. But now it creates

793
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:46,320
Speaker 3: such a such a like it's it's so tough because

794
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:49,000
Speaker 3: so here's the issue with McCaffrey and the books. By

795
00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:51,319
Speaker 3: the way, I think what they're doing for now is

796
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:53,920
Speaker 3: they kind of have Deebo at fifty to fifty, like

797
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 3: fifty like half of his usual snaps. That's what I

798
00:41:57,160 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 3: have him, and that's my numbers are getting are pretty

799
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:01,359
Speaker 3: close to the books. So I'm guessing that's what they're

800
00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:04,200
Speaker 3: doing too. But here's the issue, And I'll just kind

801
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:08,840
Speaker 3: of tell people like how to approach these things if

802
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:11,000
Speaker 3: we're hearing if you're hearing this before we have gotten

803
00:42:11,040 --> 00:42:17,800
Speaker 3: official word on Deebo. So Christian McCaffrey played every snap

804
00:42:18,840 --> 00:42:23,960
Speaker 3: last week unless there's an injury, safe to say he's

805
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 3: going to do that again.

806
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:24,919
Speaker 2: Now.

807
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:29,800
Speaker 3: The thing is, in terms of design runs, Deebo Samuel

808
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 3: in a given game usually gets about, on average, about

809
00:42:32,160 --> 00:42:37,480
Speaker 3: ten percent of the design runs right, so McCaffrey would

810
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 3: get about the other ninety. You know, they're maybe have

811
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 3: like a receiver, yeah, like a use check or somebody,

812
00:42:44,239 --> 00:42:46,680
Speaker 3: But essentially you're talking about like eighty eight to ninety

813
00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:51,680
Speaker 3: percent for McCaffrey. Uh, and then you would have about

814
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:55,080
Speaker 3: ten percent for Deebo on a normal game. Now, the

815
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:58,520
Speaker 3: issue with Deebo being in limbo is that, and the

816
00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:01,359
Speaker 3: issue with betting mccafrey unders that. For example, right now,

817
00:43:01,360 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 3: I have them about nineteen and a half carries for

818
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:03,839
Speaker 3: ninety yards.

819
00:43:03,840 --> 00:43:05,640
Speaker 2: It's pretty much in line with the books, right.

820
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 1: But.

821
00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:13,399
Speaker 3: If Deebo is out, I don't necessarily like I might,

822
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:16,399
Speaker 3: I'll just maybe it's hard to adjust their pass rate

823
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:18,680
Speaker 3: up if Gebo's out, right, you know, like I don't.

824
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:20,640
Speaker 3: I don't think they're gonna throw more because he's out.

825
00:43:20,680 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 3: That doesn't make sense. So if anything, you're gonna keep

826
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 3: the normal your normal pass rate, or it's gonna even

827
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:30,439
Speaker 3: go down. And now all those carries are essentially gonna

828
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:32,839
Speaker 3: go to McCaffrey because they gave one to Jennings. But

829
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 3: Shanahan came out and said that was an accident. He said,

830
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:37,120
Speaker 3: like Jennings was just in the debo spot. And then

831
00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:39,319
Speaker 3: he like he didn't he didn't alter the play call,

832
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:42,280
Speaker 3: and Purty essentially called the play as if it was Deebo,

833
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:44,719
Speaker 3: and it went to Jennings, So that's not gonna happen again.

834
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:47,920
Speaker 3: So you're you're now you're talking about McCaffrey getting potentially

835
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:53,000
Speaker 3: uh you know, twenty two twenty three carries, which now

836
00:43:53,040 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 3: you're even against a really tough defense. Now you're still

837
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:59,959
Speaker 3: projecting them, you know, over at or over one hundred yards.

838
00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:02,960
Speaker 3: So uh, if you think Debo is going to be out,

839
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 3: I actually think the McCaffrey over has the value. And

840
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:10,760
Speaker 3: then the same thing for AYUK. But it's a little

841
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:14,480
Speaker 3: dice here with AYUK because you kind of mentioned it

842
00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:16,919
Speaker 3: with the you know, kind of had our wires cross

843
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:20,080
Speaker 3: the little with Godwin versus Evans and they ended up

844
00:44:20,200 --> 00:44:22,319
Speaker 3: rolling a safety over god whin the winning Sutton going

845
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:26,640
Speaker 3: Evans one on one. Well, if Deebo's in, they probably

846
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:31,120
Speaker 3: do that same game plan. But if Deebo's out, now

847
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:33,160
Speaker 3: you don't have to leave like Sutton on Ayuke one

848
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:36,759
Speaker 3: on one. Now you can like double essentially roll at

849
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:39,960
Speaker 3: the safety over top of Ayuk because everyone their corners

850
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:41,960
Speaker 3: are going to be able to handle Juwan, Jennings and

851
00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:45,960
Speaker 3: Conley and mccleoud or I we still feel comfortable with

852
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:47,000
Speaker 3: those guys at one on one.

853
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:47,920
Speaker 2: So now you're talking.

854
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:52,160
Speaker 4: About let's right, right, So, especially after what we saw

855
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:54,320
Speaker 4: last week with Evans right.

856
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 3: As we're sitting here recording this on Wednesday afternoons, it's

857
00:44:57,680 --> 00:45:00,879
Speaker 3: it's tough for me to like give out any rec recommendations.

858
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:02,399
Speaker 3: I mean, I like your I think that's a good

859
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:05,279
Speaker 3: call on the armstead, that's defensive, But it's it's tough

860
00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:07,879
Speaker 3: for me to give out any recommendations as far as

861
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 3: which side to bet, you know, the total, because I

862
00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:14,000
Speaker 3: think if we're talking no Debo, now you're probably gonna

863
00:45:14,080 --> 00:45:17,080
Speaker 3: either pass as much or less than you would before

864
00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:19,759
Speaker 3: going and now you're gonna run against a good line

865
00:45:19,840 --> 00:45:22,440
Speaker 3: run defense. On the other side, the Lions, can't you know,

866
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:25,920
Speaker 3: the Lions have some issues on their interior line against

867
00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:28,560
Speaker 3: a really good defense that doesn't need to blitz to

868
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 3: get pressure. So, like I'd be looking at it under

869
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:35,279
Speaker 3: I think under fifty one if Debo's out, So I

870
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:37,560
Speaker 3: think if you think Debo is more likely to miss

871
00:45:37,960 --> 00:45:39,880
Speaker 3: under fifty one makes a lot of sense.

872
00:45:40,560 --> 00:45:42,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, I liked. I additionally liked, you know, say, these

873
00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:45,200
Speaker 4: boats of these teams are full strength, I would look

874
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:49,359
Speaker 4: it over yeah, yeah, oh absolutely absolutely, And but I

875
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 4: am super worried about on the other side of the ball,

876
00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:55,759
Speaker 4: Jackson being out you know, you don't have to worry

877
00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:59,920
Speaker 4: about wind you are outdoors. It's like the smallest marginal

878
00:46:00,040 --> 00:46:03,960
Speaker 4: difference with God. But if you can get pressure up

879
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:07,239
Speaker 4: the middle and just in general on Goth and then

880
00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:10,439
Speaker 4: you have you're dropping guys into coverage, which I think

881
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 4: the Niners will likely be able to do here. Goth

882
00:46:13,719 --> 00:46:16,160
Speaker 4: can turn into a pumpkin. A lot of times he

883
00:46:16,239 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 4: doesn't get out of it for like two quarters. He'll

884
00:46:19,640 --> 00:46:24,520
Speaker 4: be in this pumpkin trance. So that's what I would

885
00:46:24,520 --> 00:46:26,879
Speaker 4: worry about. And then you know, and that's if that's

886
00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:29,759
Speaker 4: the case, then it's the under at San Francisco. So

887
00:46:29,920 --> 00:46:32,759
Speaker 4: I think that what the Lions have to do here is,

888
00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:35,520
Speaker 4: you know, the run defense has to come to play. Obviously,

889
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 4: it will help up debos out. They're gonna have to

890
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:41,080
Speaker 4: They're gonna have to score with San Francisco. You know, Yeah,

891
00:46:41,080 --> 00:46:42,400
Speaker 4: you're gonna have to run. You have to hope that

892
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 4: Purdy has an off game I think would help, but

893
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:47,920
Speaker 4: if not, you're gonna have to run, I think, and

894
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:51,320
Speaker 4: you got to run to the outside on against San France.

895
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:57,040
Speaker 4: Gibbs has to have a huge day, and then you're

896
00:46:57,480 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 4: and then you take those defensive linemen, and especially you

897
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:02,680
Speaker 4: want to run even more outside ou Judald Jackson there.

898
00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:06,000
Speaker 4: But and then you take those defensive linemen instead of

899
00:47:06,200 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 4: just all right, we're pinning our ears back and getting

900
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:11,359
Speaker 4: after the quarterback, then they have to start to play

901
00:47:11,360 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 4: the run more. And then it's going to give opportunities

902
00:47:14,160 --> 00:47:18,000
Speaker 4: for Golf to have a cleaner pocket to throw off

903
00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:22,160
Speaker 4: play action. And then there are some matchups that you

904
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:27,360
Speaker 4: can take advantage of. Getting Gibs going early. Uh, is

905
00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 4: I think the key to the game for No, obviously

906
00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:31,440
Speaker 4: they're gonna have to come up with stops, but like

907
00:47:31,640 --> 00:47:34,080
Speaker 4: at least for them to keep up. That's that's the

908
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:35,400
Speaker 4: key to it, because if they have to, if they

909
00:47:35,440 --> 00:47:37,279
Speaker 4: can't get Gibs going, they can't get the run game

910
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:42,360
Speaker 4: going on known passing downs with their offensive line injuries,

911
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:45,920
Speaker 4: it could end up leading to disaster. So that a

912
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:49,360
Speaker 4: lot is on Gibs here and breaking some runs, getting

913
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:54,160
Speaker 4: him into manageable uh you know, third down situations and

914
00:47:54,200 --> 00:47:58,160
Speaker 4: not putting Golf into straight drop back third down known

915
00:47:58,200 --> 00:48:00,800
Speaker 4: passing downs. When there's that, then that's probably gonna be

916
00:48:00,840 --> 00:48:04,360
Speaker 4: some mistakes, and then it's probably a good night for Detroit,

917
00:48:04,440 --> 00:48:09,040
Speaker 4: especially if Deebo plays and Purty has a clean game.

918
00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:13,600
Speaker 3: Another thing that I think is working against Detroit in

919
00:48:13,640 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 3: this spot offensively is that when you look at the

920
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:21,439
Speaker 3: forty nine defense and coverage, and I think we both

921
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:25,359
Speaker 3: agree and it's probably what's gonna happen, is that they're

922
00:48:25,360 --> 00:48:26,840
Speaker 3: not gonna blitz very much day. I think they were

923
00:48:26,840 --> 00:48:29,399
Speaker 3: bottom three in blitz rate this year and they're still

924
00:48:29,400 --> 00:48:32,080
Speaker 3: getting pressure, so they're probably not They're probably gonna drop

925
00:48:32,120 --> 00:48:36,400
Speaker 3: seven into coverage. Got is very methodical, you know, but

926
00:48:37,280 --> 00:48:39,560
Speaker 3: Bord is gonna be on the outside. He's gonna take

927
00:48:39,560 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 3: away usually Reynolds as the guy.

928
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:44,200
Speaker 2: That winds up you know, on his side.

929
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:47,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, then you have you know, when Or in the

930
00:48:47,320 --> 00:48:50,879
Speaker 3: slot has been pretty good and you're obviously probably going

931
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:53,800
Speaker 3: to even give him extra help with on a Monra

932
00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:56,200
Speaker 3: and you're gonna because you're gonna have seven in coverage,

933
00:48:56,239 --> 00:49:01,040
Speaker 3: and then you have all these linebackers, uh, you know

934
00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:05,080
Speaker 3: that can like Laporta, it's gonna be tougher than it

935
00:49:05,160 --> 00:49:07,080
Speaker 3: usually is for him, So he's not necessarily going to

936
00:49:07,160 --> 00:49:09,839
Speaker 3: be the safety blanket that he's been.

937
00:49:10,360 --> 00:49:11,719
Speaker 2: You know, for much of the year, what do you

938
00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:13,520
Speaker 2: catch like eight seven eight balls? Last game?

939
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:15,759
Speaker 3: You know, now you're going up against Warner and all

940
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 3: these linebackers, so like that's that's not an easy throw.

941
00:49:19,280 --> 00:49:21,759
Speaker 2: So really, the only guys you to be the.

942
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:26,520
Speaker 4: Chip, especially more you're more worried about your interior too.

943
00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:29,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, because I was Actually, this is another big thing

944
00:49:29,640 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 3: we didn't We didn't even mention this. But so it's

945
00:49:33,040 --> 00:49:36,840
Speaker 3: not just Jonah Jackson. The Detroit Lions don't have a

946
00:49:36,880 --> 00:49:38,200
Speaker 3: second tight end right now that can bop.

947
00:49:38,760 --> 00:49:41,600
Speaker 4: Yeah they lost Brock right right, Yeah.

948
00:49:42,120 --> 00:49:44,560
Speaker 2: Uhlaporta is your pass catching guy.

949
00:49:44,600 --> 00:49:47,160
Speaker 3: I mean he can block, but like like if you

950
00:49:47,200 --> 00:49:50,480
Speaker 3: were saying, okay, let's let's uh, let's try to go

951
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:53,720
Speaker 3: heavy and just pound the ball and keep the game clows,

952
00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:56,480
Speaker 3: but you don't, Yeah, you would go right or James Mitchell.

953
00:49:56,520 --> 00:49:58,840
Speaker 3: Both of those guys are out, but you're like even worse.

954
00:49:59,440 --> 00:50:02,879
Speaker 3: Your back tight ends are Anthony ferks Er and zach Ertz.

955
00:50:02,920 --> 00:50:06,520
Speaker 3: Firks is essentially a wide receiver like body type. He's

956
00:50:06,560 --> 00:50:08,640
Speaker 3: not a blocker. And we know zach Ertz in a

957
00:50:08,640 --> 00:50:10,719
Speaker 3: blocker head, especially at this stage of his career and

958
00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:12,680
Speaker 3: now they're talking about he might not even play this week.

959
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:14,359
Speaker 3: You know, he just got to the he just got

960
00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:17,040
Speaker 3: to Detroit or and you know, I'm obviously going to

961
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:17,640
Speaker 3: San Francisco.

962
00:50:17,680 --> 00:50:19,920
Speaker 2: But so that's an issue.

963
00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 3: So now you would probably have to use Cabinda right

964
00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 3: the the fullback or Malcolm Rodriquez. That I feel like

965
00:50:27,760 --> 00:50:30,840
Speaker 3: kind of telegraphs what you're gonna do that's working against Detroit.

966
00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:33,839
Speaker 4: And that also leads into my armstep crop in that.

967
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:37,560
Speaker 4: If so, if you have Laporta out running routes, which

968
00:50:37,560 --> 00:50:40,239
Speaker 4: you're gonna want a bunch right, you can't you don't

969
00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:43,799
Speaker 4: block in the whole game, then you're gonna have and

970
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:47,080
Speaker 4: the Lions have good tackles, but you're gonna have Bosa,

971
00:50:47,840 --> 00:50:52,160
Speaker 4: you know, one on one, right, even young one on one,

972
00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:55,120
Speaker 4: they're gonna win. Not gonna win every time, but they're

973
00:50:55,120 --> 00:50:56,919
Speaker 4: gonna win. And they're you know, even if they don't

974
00:50:56,920 --> 00:51:00,359
Speaker 4: get the golf, they're gonna force GoF up. And that's

975
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:04,640
Speaker 4: when against the injured interior, you're gonna have guys like

976
00:51:04,800 --> 00:51:08,759
Speaker 4: Armstead golfa like fall into them and go down. And

977
00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:10,319
Speaker 4: the other thing that we didn't even mention that we

978
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:13,160
Speaker 4: have to mention we're talking about a lot of uncertainty.

979
00:51:13,320 --> 00:51:17,239
Speaker 4: If you wanted to take the Lion's money line, I'm

980
00:51:17,280 --> 00:51:19,200
Speaker 4: fine with it. What you want a money line dog

981
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:21,920
Speaker 4: is uncertainty. So we're talking about it with the injuries,

982
00:51:22,440 --> 00:51:23,600
Speaker 4: but you also have Dan Campbell.

983
00:51:24,520 --> 00:51:28,479
Speaker 2: Let me tell you something. I love this team.

984
00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:28,840
Speaker 4: Now.

985
00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:31,960
Speaker 2: I got goosebumps, gentlemen.

986
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:35,239
Speaker 4: So he's going to introduce and you would hope and

987
00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:38,000
Speaker 4: assume that this is when he would be even more

988
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:40,160
Speaker 4: aggressive because of all that uncertainty. At the end of

989
00:51:40,200 --> 00:51:42,120
Speaker 4: the day. If you wanted to take Detroit money line

990
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:44,840
Speaker 4: and then just know that Campbell's gonna yolo at a

991
00:51:44,840 --> 00:51:48,160
Speaker 4: bunch on four downs, and I could I couldn't fault you.

992
00:51:48,440 --> 00:51:50,319
Speaker 4: So like, even though I think Sanford wins, I think

993
00:51:50,320 --> 00:51:54,120
Speaker 4: Baltimore wins. If you say I'm taking Kansas City, is

994
00:51:54,160 --> 00:51:56,200
Speaker 4: that the greatest quarterback on the planet, and then you

995
00:51:56,239 --> 00:51:58,600
Speaker 4: say I'm taking the Troit of my line because I

996
00:51:58,640 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 4: have Campbell and all this variants, this uncertainty, I couldn't

997
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:05,120
Speaker 4: blame you. We'll see how it plays out. At the

998
00:52:05,160 --> 00:52:07,480
Speaker 4: end of the day. It's still an oblong ball, but I.

999
00:52:07,719 --> 00:52:10,960
Speaker 3: Could very well see if Debo's out like a twenty

1000
00:52:11,040 --> 00:52:13,520
Speaker 3: six to nine San Francisco win or something like that,

1001
00:52:13,560 --> 00:52:15,959
Speaker 3: you know. So, like I'm gonna be watching that under

1002
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:18,400
Speaker 3: and now that we've kind of talked through, and I

1003
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:20,239
Speaker 3: also I the more I look at it.

1004
00:52:20,200 --> 00:52:22,040
Speaker 2: I think this has to be a big Demir Gibbs game.

1005
00:52:22,080 --> 00:52:23,720
Speaker 2: Because also, if.

1006
00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:25,920
Speaker 3: You're gonna talk about like the chipping and what are

1007
00:52:25,960 --> 00:52:27,920
Speaker 3: you gonna do without the tight ends, just get the

1008
00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:30,520
Speaker 3: ball out of golf hands quick And who's the best

1009
00:52:30,520 --> 00:52:31,439
Speaker 3: person to do that with.

1010
00:52:31,760 --> 00:52:33,120
Speaker 2: It's probably gonna be Gibbs.

1011
00:52:33,200 --> 00:52:34,719
Speaker 3: So what you're gonna have to do is a lot

1012
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:37,799
Speaker 3: of screens, a lot of swing passes, things like that,

1013
00:52:38,320 --> 00:52:40,399
Speaker 3: and just let Gibbs go to work. Because I mean,

1014
00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:43,359
Speaker 3: as good as San Francisco's defense is, Gibbs, it has

1015
00:52:43,400 --> 00:52:45,200
Speaker 3: the speed we saw it last week, I mean we.

1016
00:52:45,160 --> 00:52:47,839
Speaker 2: See it every week almost he can make guys miss.

1017
00:52:47,880 --> 00:52:49,319
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think it's gonna be a big Gibs game.

1018
00:52:49,320 --> 00:52:54,080
Speaker 3: Maybe not a great Montgomery game this one, but yeah,

1019
00:52:54,120 --> 00:52:56,440
Speaker 3: that under is one I'll be watching very closely.

1020
00:52:56,880 --> 00:52:58,760
Speaker 2: So for the six.

1021
00:52:58,640 --> 00:53:03,640
Speaker 3: Pack, you got Baltimore case c under forty four and

1022
00:53:03,640 --> 00:53:06,920
Speaker 3: a half, Jay Flowers under four and a half receptions,

1023
00:53:07,200 --> 00:53:10,319
Speaker 3: any juice by the way, that you wouldn't play it

1024
00:53:10,320 --> 00:53:13,600
Speaker 3: to I guess right now it's pretty even both sides.

1025
00:53:13,760 --> 00:53:19,760
Speaker 4: But for flat for flowers up to like minus one thirty,

1026
00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:20,479
Speaker 4: I think is good.

1027
00:53:21,760 --> 00:53:23,440
Speaker 3: I mean I would probably, I would probably say what

1028
00:53:23,920 --> 00:53:27,160
Speaker 3: you could probably go so minus one fifty is like

1029
00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:29,680
Speaker 3: sixty forty minus one thirty, would just do what like

1030
00:53:29,719 --> 00:53:33,279
Speaker 3: fifty five? I think you're probably if you like, you're

1031
00:53:33,320 --> 00:53:35,719
Speaker 3: probably good. Just with the variants of the way receptions work,

1032
00:53:35,840 --> 00:53:38,520
Speaker 3: You're probably good up to minus one fifty. But minus

1033
00:53:38,560 --> 00:53:44,000
Speaker 3: one thirty we'll go with that. And then Armstead over

1034
00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:45,120
Speaker 3: a quarter sack.

1035
00:53:45,400 --> 00:53:46,960
Speaker 4: This is a move. I'll call it minus one forty

1036
00:53:47,000 --> 00:53:47,560
Speaker 4: even if better than me.

1037
00:53:47,680 --> 00:53:52,280
Speaker 3: Okay, I mean Armstead over a quarter sack. That's plus

1038
00:53:52,280 --> 00:53:54,879
Speaker 3: one forty five. Right now, where would you play that too?

1039
00:53:55,800 --> 00:54:00,440
Speaker 4: Plus one plus one twenty five ish?

1040
00:54:00,920 --> 00:54:01,440
Speaker 2: All right?

1041
00:54:01,719 --> 00:54:04,239
Speaker 3: So yeah, Baltimore case under forty four and a half,

1042
00:54:04,320 --> 00:54:07,560
Speaker 3: flowers under four and a half catches up to minus

1043
00:54:07,560 --> 00:54:11,800
Speaker 3: one forty, and Armstead over a quarter sack down to

1044
00:54:11,920 --> 00:54:16,279
Speaker 3: plus one twenty. I got Baltimore first half minus two

1045
00:54:16,360 --> 00:54:20,320
Speaker 3: and a half. I would play that anything under three

1046
00:54:21,440 --> 00:54:25,120
Speaker 3: Lamar under a half inch, So essentially Lamar not to

1047
00:54:25,160 --> 00:54:28,320
Speaker 3: throw a pick. I would play that up to minus

1048
00:54:28,320 --> 00:54:34,239
Speaker 3: one fifty aka sixty percent odds and gus edwards over

1049
00:54:34,320 --> 00:54:36,560
Speaker 3: thirty nine and a half rushing yards, I would play

1050
00:54:36,560 --> 00:54:38,360
Speaker 3: that up to forty three and a half.

1051
00:54:38,520 --> 00:54:39,880
Speaker 2: If the line goes past that.

1052
00:54:40,320 --> 00:54:43,680
Speaker 3: I think, look at some of his alt overs, you

1053
00:54:43,680 --> 00:54:46,879
Speaker 3: can ladder things is anytime touchdown. I mean I don't

1054
00:54:46,920 --> 00:54:49,440
Speaker 3: like that anytime touchdown markets because you're always paying like

1055
00:54:49,480 --> 00:54:53,640
Speaker 3: an attax beyond even what you're paying, you know, for props.

1056
00:54:54,200 --> 00:54:57,920
Speaker 3: So don't love anytime touchdown, but do love this to

1057
00:54:57,960 --> 00:55:00,680
Speaker 3: be a big gus game on the ground, and I

1058
00:55:00,680 --> 00:55:03,120
Speaker 3: think the market's kind of bottomed out because of him

1059
00:55:03,239 --> 00:55:03,760
Speaker 3: coming out.

1060
00:55:03,640 --> 00:55:07,720
Speaker 2: Early last week. So that is our Championship Week six.

1061
00:55:07,600 --> 00:55:11,759
Speaker 4: Backs predictions on who's winning. Just the final scores, I'll

1062
00:55:11,800 --> 00:55:17,480
Speaker 4: go Baltimore twenty four to seventeen, and I really don't

1063
00:55:17,520 --> 00:55:19,239
Speaker 4: know yet because on certainly so, I'm going to take

1064
00:55:19,280 --> 00:55:23,920
Speaker 4: the most cowardly route ever San Francisco twenty nine, Detroit

1065
00:55:23,960 --> 00:55:26,399
Speaker 4: twenty two. Right on the.

1066
00:55:26,440 --> 00:55:32,400
Speaker 3: Total, I think that Baltimore does it again to Kansas City.

1067
00:55:32,719 --> 00:55:37,640
Speaker 3: I say Baltimore thirty one, Kansas City twelve.

1068
00:55:38,320 --> 00:55:40,319
Speaker 4: Got to keep polder yep.

1069
00:55:40,480 --> 00:55:45,160
Speaker 3: And then for the Niners Lions game, so I'll go

1070
00:55:45,280 --> 00:55:51,400
Speaker 3: Niners twenty nine five Jake Moody field goals, Lions fifteen.

1071
00:55:51,960 --> 00:55:54,040
Speaker 4: So wow, we know someone's got a bet that that

1072
00:55:54,120 --> 00:55:56,399
Speaker 4: we both are calling for the Niners to score twenty

1073
00:55:56,480 --> 00:55:57,399
Speaker 4: nine points.

1074
00:55:57,400 --> 00:55:59,319
Speaker 2: And then they their team total twenty nine and a half.

1075
00:55:59,360 --> 00:56:02,400
Speaker 2: I believe, so oh wow, yeah, because you know how

1076
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:02,799
Speaker 2: that goes.

1077
00:56:03,160 --> 00:56:06,319
Speaker 4: Hope we hit all our bets as always, and I

1078
00:56:06,360 --> 00:56:08,279
Speaker 4: just hope the refs stay out of it. Had a

1079
00:56:08,440 --> 00:56:10,880
Speaker 4: Bills fifty to one. Was worried about Hockey League. He

1080
00:56:10,960 --> 00:56:13,360
Speaker 4: stayed out of it last week. Rets are gonna miss calls.

1081
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:15,480
Speaker 4: Just don't take over the game. So I was happy

1082
00:56:15,480 --> 00:56:17,600
Speaker 4: that that didn't happen. And if the Ravens lose a

1083
00:56:17,600 --> 00:56:20,360
Speaker 4: good heart thought game, I will congratulate Chiefs fans and

1084
00:56:21,560 --> 00:56:24,440
Speaker 4: but just don't control the game. We have three games left.

1085
00:56:24,560 --> 00:56:25,759
Speaker 4: Just stay out of it. Let them play.

1086
00:56:26,360 --> 00:56:28,359
Speaker 2: Uh now it's time pet talk.

1087
00:56:28,600 --> 00:56:30,319
Speaker 4: You keep playing the way you're playing, We're gonna get

1088
00:56:30,320 --> 00:56:31,400
Speaker 4: an ass feed again to night.

1089
00:56:31,880 --> 00:56:35,600
Speaker 2: I don't stop right now for these week's pet talk.

1090
00:56:35,840 --> 00:56:38,839
Speaker 3: We're gonna go to the legendary comedian Kat Williams has

1091
00:56:38,880 --> 00:56:43,360
Speaker 3: been buzzing lately. Recent interview with Shannon Sharp and uh

1092
00:56:43,719 --> 00:56:45,879
Speaker 3: decades to the Ravens get it done.

1093
00:56:46,360 --> 00:56:50,279
Speaker 1: To do this trampoline skin is something that you ask

1094
00:56:50,360 --> 00:56:55,040
Speaker 1: God for. There's really no sech thing as hitting Shannon's

1095
00:56:55,120 --> 00:56:57,279
Speaker 1: Sharp so hard that he don't want to run the

1096
00:56:57,320 --> 00:57:00,279
Speaker 1: ball the next play. And if that's your only goal

1097
00:57:00,440 --> 00:57:02,520
Speaker 1: is to hit him so hard they he don't want

1098
00:57:02,560 --> 00:57:05,000
Speaker 1: to beat him no more. You just out of love.

1099
00:57:05,400 --> 00:57:07,640
Speaker 1: Your coach can't help you. It ain't no pep talk

1100
00:57:07,760 --> 00:57:11,080
Speaker 1: gonna help you. Don't matter about the uniform, you chill it.

1101
00:57:11,200 --> 00:57:14,640
Speaker 1: None of that matters. If it ever gets to mono

1102
00:57:14,760 --> 00:57:17,600
Speaker 1: E mono. May the best man win. And if you've

1103
00:57:17,640 --> 00:57:20,400
Speaker 1: been living your entire lifetime to be the best man

1104
00:57:20,480 --> 00:57:23,760
Speaker 1: that you can for yourself, then you should feel great

1105
00:57:23,760 --> 00:57:25,000
Speaker 1: about those odds.

1106
00:57:25,720 --> 00:57:28,440
Speaker 2: We'll go all right, that is a rap for us,

1107
00:57:28,600 --> 00:57:29,840
Speaker 2: So thank you for listening.

1108
00:57:30,240 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 3: After this week, we'll be back here with lots of

1109
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:35,000
Speaker 3: episodes leading up to Super Bowl fifty eight.

1110
00:57:35,160 --> 00:57:37,640
Speaker 2: Of course, our super Bowl six pack.

1111
00:57:37,680 --> 00:57:39,720
Speaker 4: Monday of super Bowl week, so you can expect that

1112
00:57:39,840 --> 00:57:40,880
Speaker 4: early Monday.

1113
00:57:40,880 --> 00:57:44,120
Speaker 3: The week of the Super Bowl, we do have episodes

1114
00:57:44,120 --> 00:57:46,760
Speaker 3: with myself and Kerner on the Fantasy Flex and Stuck

1115
00:57:47,040 --> 00:57:49,200
Speaker 3: is talking college hoops over on the Big Bets on

1116
00:57:49,240 --> 00:57:52,400
Speaker 3: Campus Pot every Monday and Friday. Stuck is on x

1117
00:57:52,440 --> 00:57:55,280
Speaker 3: formerly Twitter at Stucky two. I'm at Chris Graybond. We're

1118
00:57:55,280 --> 00:57:57,040
Speaker 3: at those same handles on the free award winning Action.

1119
00:57:57,160 --> 00:57:59,240
Speaker 2: Never react until next time.

1120
00:57:59,400 --> 00:58:01,840
Speaker 4: Let's get this morning I go for reades.

1121
00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:13,320
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1122
00:58:13,360 --> 00:58:15,880
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1123
00:58:15,880 --> 00:58:18,720
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler