Speaker 1: Open to episode number four, twenty six of the Marine
Speaker 1: Layer Podcast. We welcome on our friend and recurring guest,
Speaker 1: arm Lighton, the co founder of Just Baseball, to preview
Speaker 1: this twenty twenty six MLB draft, who the Mariners could
Speaker 1: pick at number twenty four, and some updates in the
Speaker 1: Mariners minor league system so far this season.
Speaker 2: Your guys reminder before we start this show, just make
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Speaker 1: Let's get it rolling and we welcome you to this
Speaker 1: episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just
Speaker 1: Baseball podcast network. Recording here on Tuesday afternoon, July seventh.
Speaker 1: This is before the Mariners start their three game series
Speaker 1: in Miami. We will talk about all the things happening
Speaker 1: with the Mariners down in the state of Florida on
Speaker 1: Friday's Mailbag episode. So just sort of a programming note,
Speaker 1: there will be no current Mariners talk on this episode.
Speaker 1: It will be all in the minor leagues. But we
Speaker 1: do love having arm On. He is as knowledgeable as
Speaker 1: it gets with the draft and with the Mariners minor
Speaker 1: league system.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's great. I mean, we hit on a bunch
Speaker 2: of different topics here. Everybody wants to hear about caid
Speaker 2: and slow these days, so we hit on those, guys.
Speaker 2: We hit on the promotions to Triple A because, by
Speaker 2: the way, it was after we recorded Monday's episode. Later
Speaker 2: that Sunday night, it was announced that Lads and Arroyo
Speaker 2: were both headed to Triple A. So we talked to
Speaker 2: arm about that because that's obviously very very prospect worthy news.
Speaker 2: And then we get into the draft because as you
Speaker 2: guys are sitting here listening to this, we're like four
Speaker 2: days out from the draft and the Mariners aren't at
Speaker 2: the same spot as they were last year. But that
Speaker 2: doesn't mean there's not intriguing prospects down at that number
Speaker 2: twenty four spot. So we have arm hit on a
Speaker 2: bunch of guys with us, and it's a really fun episode.
Speaker 1: We won't keep you guys any longer. Let's get you
Speaker 1: to that conversation with arm Layton. All right, we welcome
Speaker 1: on our friend and recurring guest, Arm Layton, co founder
Speaker 1: of Just Baseball, Arham, Thanks for hopping on here with us.
Speaker 1: This time of year has to be like the busiest
Speaker 1: possible time for you, right, I mean you've probably been
Speaker 1: prepping for this draft for how long now a little.
Speaker 3: While because it's hard to get a blended in with
Speaker 3: the top one hundred update, which we just put out
Speaker 3: a few weeks ago, and then it's just overdrive trying
Speaker 3: to keep up with as many of the draft reports,
Speaker 3: and thank goodness we have Tyler Jennings who's helped a
Speaker 3: lot on that front too, But just to get as
Speaker 3: deep into the players as possible, and especially this year, man, like,
Speaker 3: I'll never forget your guys' reaction to get Kate Anderson
Speaker 3: last year. Unfortunately, no one like that's gonna just fall
Speaker 3: where there's a no brain or obvious pick.
Speaker 4: So for picks like this.
Speaker 3: And I think this draft in general, there's just so
Speaker 3: many different players that could go in so many different
Speaker 3: spots that I just feel like I gotta keep learning
Speaker 3: and keep learning.
Speaker 1: Okay, we'll talk about the specific players later in this episode,
Speaker 1: but I am curious how long does it take you
Speaker 1: to put together like a mock draft, Like what goes
Speaker 1: into that.
Speaker 3: Thank goodness for Tyler Jennings. Before we had Tyler and
Speaker 3: when it was all just me doing it, Oh gosh,
Speaker 3: it just depended on how accurate quote unquote I wanted
Speaker 3: to try to be on a pick, but as I
Speaker 3: started to realize, it's kind of an exercise in futility.
Speaker 3: You just try to gather as much info as you can,
Speaker 3: figure out which players you think kind of fit that
Speaker 3: description there, and just go with it. The part that
Speaker 3: I think takes the longest is really like the player
Speaker 3: breakdowns and just kind of understanding their strengths, their weaknesses
Speaker 3: and everything in between, because the college day you usually
Speaker 3: got to sift through it. There's some pitches that are
Speaker 3: tagged really poorly. Uh, the pitch shapes aren't accurate, so
Speaker 3: you got to kind of like fix all of that
Speaker 3: and then go through it all. And again, Tyler does
Speaker 3: an amazing job too with the high school guys, Like
Speaker 3: he's getting live looks and we're talking about that.
Speaker 4: So there's a lot more of just like a.
Speaker 3: Detail oriented process where you're go into all these different areas,
Speaker 3: where with the minor league prospects, the data is a
Speaker 3: little bit more easy to follow. I can watch video
Speaker 3: on them, it's a little bit more easy for me
Speaker 3: to see them live. And but even that process takes
Speaker 3: a while. But I would say that the like the
Speaker 3: player breakdowns, is really what takes a while, and the
Speaker 3: tool grades and the pitch grades and all that stuff.
Speaker 4: But that's the fun part of it.
Speaker 2: Which is why your drafts, why your mock drafts, and
Speaker 2: your prospect updates are as good as they get like
Speaker 2: other outlets do them. But arm really really goes into
Speaker 2: the weeds of these breakdowns. So again, if you're looking
Speaker 2: for draft breakdowns as we lead up to Sunday, if
Speaker 2: you're looking for prospect stuff, I mean, just go right
Speaker 2: over to just Baseball dot com. Speaking of that, like,
Speaker 2: we're gonna get into a bunch of stuff in this episode,
Speaker 2: Like TJ mentioned, the draft, a bunch of prospects, and
Speaker 2: we'll get into a couple of promotions here in a minute.
Speaker 2: But just since you mentioned us all being together last
Speaker 2: summer at All Star Week and TJ and I's reaction
Speaker 2: to Kate Anderson falling to number three, since you brought
Speaker 2: it up, I figured i'd just start here. I feel
Speaker 2: like our reaction back then has now been pretty warranted.
Speaker 5: As we look a year later.
Speaker 2: But I'll ask you, what does Kaid continue to improve
Speaker 2: on from your eyes from that College World Series start
Speaker 2: where he went complete game to what he's doing now,
Speaker 2: which has been off the charts.
Speaker 3: It's funny, I was thinking about that before we started recording.
Speaker 3: I was like, based on the way Caid's thrown now,
Speaker 3: it was actually an underreaction.
Speaker 4: I think. I think you guys actually could.
Speaker 3: Have had more in there, because he's been one of
Speaker 3: the most dominant minor league pitchers I can remember. And
Speaker 3: what I keep going back to, and I just I
Speaker 3: can't really escape this is that to me, he looks
Speaker 3: like a big league vet rehabbing in the minor leagues,
Speaker 3: and I think that's the biggest thing we saw Kate
Speaker 3: Anderson execute and just be more polished than his peers.
Speaker 3: In college, but the degree at which he's executing now
Speaker 3: is just on a different level.
Speaker 4: I mean, even when.
Speaker 3: You look at what he did last at LSU, every
Speaker 3: once in a while he'd leave that heater up, or
Speaker 3: every once in a while, you know, he'd hang the slider.
Speaker 4: He's like never doing that now.
Speaker 3: It's almost like he's a robot and you've seen the
Speaker 3: stuff improve a little bit, just in terms of the
Speaker 3: life on the heater. And I also think the other aspect,
Speaker 3: and this was something that I talked about with Justin
Speaker 3: Toole at the start of the season during spring training,
Speaker 3: is just Anderson really buying into just all of the
Speaker 3: other aspects when the Mariners, the way that they approach
Speaker 3: things on the mound and what they like to preach,
Speaker 3: and the way that they want guys to attack hitters,
Speaker 3: and just the routine and all the little aspects as
Speaker 3: well that I think is just taking Kate Anderson to
Speaker 3: another level and has him carrying himself like a vet.
Speaker 4: But it really is the execution.
Speaker 3: Across the entire arsenal where it seems like he can
Speaker 3: go to any pitch in any count and he's just
Speaker 3: toying with hitters. And it's been one of the more
Speaker 3: fun Like he is a guy that you can watch
Speaker 3: the whole start and it's just as satisfying and aesthetically
Speaker 3: pleasing to watch because of how repeatable the delivery is,
Speaker 3: how confident he is in every offering, and really the
Speaker 3: way he can just toy with these double A hitters.
Speaker 1: What's the difference from what Caid's doing this year to
Speaker 1: what Trey's Savage did last year for the Blue Jays.
Speaker 3: I think what Caid's doing this year is like more
Speaker 3: consistent y Savage, you had this outlier type of guy
Speaker 3: that like, of course when he got up to the
Speaker 3: big leagues it was just a different level. He got
Speaker 3: hot and it was incredible, and I think he's obviously
Speaker 3: a very special arm. The difference, I guess is that
Speaker 3: y Savage was moved so quickly through the level, was
Speaker 3: that like you never really got to see him fully.
Speaker 3: You have to like repeat what he was doing at
Speaker 3: one stop. And then he got up to the big
Speaker 3: leagues and again just hot outlier look with the high.
Speaker 4: Release and the splitter and it just it just worked.
Speaker 3: But with y Savage, it was like station to station
Speaker 3: to station really quickly, and we never saw him throw
Speaker 3: more than thirty three innings at one spot, which was
Speaker 3: low a by the way, in twenty twenty five, that
Speaker 3: was his longest day before he got to the show.
Speaker 3: Whereas when I look at Cade, like, this is a
Speaker 3: guy that just was aggressively assigned, you know, and is
Speaker 3: being challenged.
Speaker 4: Immediately Inaa would.
Speaker 3: By the way that the ball in the minor leagues
Speaker 3: this year, I think there's something going on. It is flying.
Speaker 3: You have guys with the same batted ball data the
Speaker 3: head the year before, hitting way more homers. You have
Speaker 3: you know, an eight seventy ops in the Texas League
Speaker 3: where Kid's at right now, equating to like a one
Speaker 3: to twenty three WRC plus, And it's like, how is
Speaker 3: that only twenty three percent above average? Everyone's launching balls,
Speaker 3: and that's the craziest part. Was like even you Savage
Speaker 3: every once in a while, you know, he'd get he'd
Speaker 3: get clipped by a.
Speaker 4: Long ball when he was in the minor leagues.
Speaker 3: And when you look at what Kate Anderson has done
Speaker 3: is like nobody is even clipping him. Like he's given
Speaker 3: up four home runs on the season. A couple of
Speaker 3: those came more recently, but minimal hard contact if he
Speaker 3: does give up a homer, it feels like it's a
Speaker 3: solo shot. And it just the ability to limit damage.
Speaker 3: A two already slugging against a one ninety five on
Speaker 3: base percentage allowed.
Speaker 4: It is just no one's doing that.
Speaker 1: Answer me this. I thought the ball was different between
Speaker 1: Double A and Triple A. Is it the same?
Speaker 3: Now it's it's it's flying like it's the same across
Speaker 3: the minor leagues. It is supposed to be different, and
Speaker 3: it is different. But I don't know what's going on
Speaker 3: in Double A and High A.
Speaker 4: But the ball is.
Speaker 3: Flying, flying, flying, flying, and it is a different ball.
Speaker 3: The Triple A ball is supposed to be more similar
Speaker 3: to the big league ball. But every checkpoint I've seen
Speaker 3: in Hi A and Double A, and this is the
Speaker 3: thing going to dive into on the other side of
Speaker 3: All Star Week, just because we're getting through All Star Week.
Speaker 3: But I really want to compare the batted ball data,
Speaker 3: like the home run to fly ball right, like what
Speaker 3: percentage of fly balls are leaving the yard compared to
Speaker 3: previous years at each league, because something's fishy for sure,
Speaker 3: and I think that only validates what Kate Anderson's doing
Speaker 3: even more.
Speaker 1: What does cad How does Kaid stack up historically against
Speaker 1: some other performances you've seen in the minors.
Speaker 3: Man, I was thinking about the other day, and I
Speaker 3: can't really think of a player in recent memory. And
Speaker 3: I'm sure like some people could dig one up really
Speaker 3: really quickly and be like, oh, this was this was
Speaker 3: maybe a comparable type of performance.
Speaker 4: But one hundred and eight strikeouts.
Speaker 3: To ten walks in Double A and that's your first
Speaker 3: pro season at the level. I can't think of somebody
Speaker 3: off the top of my head that's done that anytime recently,
Speaker 3: especially in that Texas League. So I'm sure once we
Speaker 3: get off like one will come to me. But on
Speaker 3: the spot, dude, like the balance of command and with
Speaker 3: where he's striking out forty percent of guys too, it's
Speaker 3: a whip below point seven. I can't think of a
Speaker 3: player like that doing this in his first pro season.
Speaker 2: Would he benefit anything from going to Triple A because
Speaker 2: often teams keep their prospects away from the PCL and
Speaker 2: away from Triple A because the ball flies and it
Speaker 2: doesn't do much for your development. That being said, I
Speaker 2: just don't know what it is challenging him at this
Speaker 2: point in Double A so I've been curious to pick
Speaker 2: your brain about that.
Speaker 3: It's It's funny, like at first I was always thinking, oh,
Speaker 3: what's the point, But honestly, like, if you can keep
Speaker 3: limiting damage there like that, you'll be able to do
Speaker 3: it at the show too. And in terms of what
Speaker 3: the PCL is, the other aspect is maybe just getting
Speaker 3: a little bit more accustomed to throwing with, you know,
Speaker 3: a big league type of ball. The seams are tighter
Speaker 3: and all those different things. Is that's the one thing
Speaker 3: I have noticed very much is you see these these
Speaker 3: pitching prospects. And I don't think it's gonna be a
Speaker 3: prolem for Anderson obviously, but a lot of even top
Speaker 3: pitching prospects, they get to trip a a they lose
Speaker 3: a couple of inches of vert on the fastball, maybe
Speaker 3: they don't trust the fastball as much, and then.
Speaker 4: They start nibbling a little more. The walk rate creeps up.
Speaker 3: It's a little bit slicker, the seams are a little
Speaker 3: bit flatter, and they just don't have the same grip
Speaker 3: and it takes some time to kind of find that feel.
Speaker 4: You can also just do that immediately up at the
Speaker 4: big league level.
Speaker 3: But if we're already just watching this like this exercise
Speaker 3: of Oh, Kate Anderson goes out, Kate Anderson dominates.
Speaker 4: Okay, we wait for him to go and pitch again.
Speaker 3: It may not be a bad thing to just give
Speaker 3: him a variable if he gives up three homers in
Speaker 3: a start in the PCL. I think this guy's even
Speaker 3: keeled enough to know that it's not. He doesn't need
Speaker 3: to change anything, so as it pretends to like throwing
Speaker 3: with a baseball closer to what you'd be throwing with
Speaker 3: in the big leagues, and maybe just shaking things up
Speaker 3: a little bit so he's not throwing stand in bullpens.
Speaker 3: It seems like it may not be a bad idea.
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Speaker 1: Please game responsibly. There's some other Mariners prospect news this week.
Speaker 1: They have a couple of promotions with Lazara Montes and
Speaker 1: Michael Royal. Speaking of Triple A moving up to Triple
Speaker 1: A Tacoma this week, why do you think the Mariners
Speaker 1: decided they were going to do this now.
Speaker 3: With with with A Royal and Las Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 3: With a Royo, I see the fit right where it's like,
Speaker 3: you guys got to figure out a way to hit lefties,
Speaker 3: and Arroyo is a guy that's kind of built I
Speaker 3: think to be able to do that. And there's certain
Speaker 3: players that they don't hit lefties, you know, as well
Speaker 3: as you'd expect in the minor leagues, but then they
Speaker 3: get up to the big leagues and they handle lefties
Speaker 3: a little bit more easily or more quickly than they
Speaker 3: would have. You know, I handled the righty's what getting
Speaker 3: up there, just because everything's breaking towards them. You're not
Speaker 3: dealing with right on right sweepers and all these nastier
Speaker 3: sharper stuff.
Speaker 4: And with a Royal, I just I feel like the
Speaker 4: way that he has swung en of late too.
Speaker 3: He's been on a different level since maybe about a
Speaker 3: month and a half ago, I mean, and it has
Speaker 3: been just ridiculous, ridiculous numbers.
Speaker 4: And I also just.
Speaker 3: Think about the comfort and playing different spots now and
Speaker 3: he's starting to play or continuing to play a good
Speaker 3: amount of left field.
Speaker 4: I'm just thinking.
Speaker 3: About you're hoping that the Mariners are going to go
Speaker 3: out and get that short platoon guy because Rob Refsnyder
Speaker 3: is not really doing it, and I was really hoping
Speaker 3: Brendan Davis would get his opportunity, but of course the
Speaker 3: hamstring issue and even then, like we're kind of digging
Speaker 3: around here to find that short platoon guy. I think
Speaker 3: for for a royal like that seems to be a
Speaker 3: role that I could see him very much succeed And
Speaker 3: and again I know it's been slightly reverse splits, but
Speaker 3: I wouldn't expect it to go that way in the
Speaker 3: big leagues. Everything breaking towards him. He demolishes lefty fastballs.
Speaker 3: I think he'd be able to handle it, and I
Speaker 3: think you'd see those splits normalize with laz I think
Speaker 3: it's just kind of time, I guess. But at the
Speaker 3: same time, he's one where it's a triple A is
Speaker 3: gonna be easier for him. So that was where it
Speaker 3: was a little surprising for me. But you also had
Speaker 3: sixty four games in double A last year for last
Speaker 3: where he was twenty two percent better than league average,
Speaker 3: another seventy nine games at double A where he's now
Speaker 3: forty four percent better than the league average. Those swing
Speaker 3: and miss has been roughly the same. It's just kinda
Speaker 3: might as well just push him up to trip a
Speaker 3: A and get him a step away from the big leagues.
Speaker 3: The funny thing with Lazo is like I think he'll
Speaker 3: probably end up wiffing less in the PCL and he's
Speaker 3: definitely gonna hit more home runs. So with his power
Speaker 3: in that environment, like it's gonna be a match made
Speaker 3: in heaven, and maybe he gets hot and if you
Speaker 3: need a bat, you bring him up, or maybe he
Speaker 3: torches the level and I know Mariners fans are gonna
Speaker 3: like shiver there, but that could be a guy that
Speaker 3: you dangle in a potential trade.
Speaker 4: Mm hmm.
Speaker 2: So do you think the Mariners are essentially just accepting
Speaker 2: he's always gonna strike out at a really high rate,
Speaker 2: because I guess my take was, as somebody who's not
Speaker 2: a prospect expert, I always figured he's gonna have to
Speaker 2: cut the k rate down before they ever promote him.
Speaker 2: But they promoted him and he's still striking out over
Speaker 2: thirty percent of the time. So is this just the
Speaker 2: Mariners essentially accepting who he'll be as a hitter.
Speaker 4: I think so.
Speaker 3: You know, there's always the hope that it can happen,
Speaker 3: you know, later on or whatever. But I think just
Speaker 3: because he's also productive, it puts him in a weird
Speaker 3: spat and you don't want him to get like stale
Speaker 3: at the level and stagnate. And it's twenty five homers
Speaker 3: in seventy nine games, and I think at this point
Speaker 3: it's it's kind of a matter of just trying to
Speaker 3: challenge him now with maybe guys that aren't gonna have
Speaker 3: as good as stuff and maybe can execute a little
Speaker 3: bit more, and then just ultimately, I think the the
Speaker 3: only test, the only way to really because how are
Speaker 3: you gonna convince lazarro Montest to make a swing adjustment
Speaker 3: right now? Like, yes, I'm sure he'd want to swing
Speaker 3: and miss less, but he's on pace for fifty homers almost,
Speaker 3: Like how do you convince that guy to swing? Like
Speaker 3: to swing differently? And when I talked to the Mariners
Speaker 3: brass before, like when I talked to some people before
Speaker 3: the start of the season, I kind of ask him
Speaker 3: like big barrel tip, like he really gets his hands
Speaker 3: out there, Like are there any things you'd want to adjust? Like, no,
Speaker 3: We're more focused on approach, all right, So I don't know.
Speaker 3: It's a very interesting situation. But when you look at
Speaker 3: you las, like sixty percent contact rate at double A,
Speaker 3: the odds of that translating to big league success as
Speaker 3: currently constructed are are swim because you would have to
Speaker 3: have him maintain that contact rate exactly and he'd still
Speaker 3: be among the lowest in Major League Baseball. You'd be
Speaker 3: hoping for like that Murakami type of outcome, but Murakami
Speaker 3: doesn't chase at all.
Speaker 4: Laz has gotten better with.
Speaker 3: The swing decisions, but he's still he's still right around
Speaker 3: average in terms of the chase rate. So I can't
Speaker 3: really make too much of I can't totally figure out
Speaker 3: what the move would be other than it just get
Speaker 3: him one step closer to the big leagues and get
Speaker 3: him hot, because you know he's gonna get hot up there.
Speaker 1: What is Kyle Schwarber's contact rate? Because that feels like
Speaker 1: a best case scenario for Laz where he's gonna walk
Speaker 1: a ton, he's gonna hit the ball really really far,
Speaker 1: but he'll still pile up his strikeouts. So where where
Speaker 1: is that at?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 3: When when I brought up that, like that hot end
Speaker 3: outcome on the radio show, that that was kind enough
Speaker 3: to bring me on to I'm sorry, I can't remember
Speaker 3: it off the top of my head. And you guys
Speaker 3: had like live texting, right and I was getting cooked
Speaker 3: for that. They're like, what do you mean best case scenario?
Speaker 3: Like we don't, We're aiming higher than that. Whatever, Like
Speaker 3: you get this guy out of here. I'm like, oh man,
Speaker 3: really like Godber's a sixty nine percent contact right.
Speaker 1: That's pretty wow. So ten percent higher at.
Speaker 4: The major league level. Wow.
Speaker 3: And I don't mean to do this like last as time. Right,
Speaker 3: he's twenty one years old. And I think there's tangible
Speaker 3: things swing wise that he could fix, like to clean up.
Speaker 3: Like when you look at the way that he moves,
Speaker 3: he's super stacked on the backside, and then he really
Speaker 3: tips that barrel over like it is pointing to almost
Speaker 3: what looks like left center field, and then he's got
Speaker 3: to bring the barrel all the way back. His hands
Speaker 3: also get out far away from him all the way back,
Speaker 3: and then it's got to flattened back out behind him
Speaker 3: to get on plane. And I just think it has
Speaker 3: to travel like especially just like the heart of the
Speaker 3: barrel has to travel so far to make contact that
Speaker 3: it's gonna give him a wider chance of being able
Speaker 3: or a higher chance of swinging and missing. It's gonna
Speaker 3: be harder to kind of meet the ball at the
Speaker 3: same point every single time. It's gonna be harder to
Speaker 3: have that same timing and to get on plane quickly
Speaker 3: when you have veg up and in. I think that's
Speaker 3: part of the reason why he struggling against lefties, because
Speaker 3: the barrel gets so out far away from him, then
Speaker 3: the front side kind of feels like, oh.
Speaker 4: Wait, I got to get this barrel out of here.
Speaker 3: So he kind of leaks open with the front side
Speaker 3: and then that's how the barrel gets, you know, on plane,
Speaker 3: is to just kind of create space and kind of
Speaker 3: get it out. You see the front side of his
Speaker 3: body kind of open up to get the barrel out.
Speaker 3: And if you do that against lefties, you're gonna pull
Speaker 3: off the stuff. He's so freakish with his bat speed
Speaker 3: and his hands, he's able to make that work and
Speaker 3: still hammer mistakes and hammer righty.
Speaker 4: Stuff and all that good stuff. But I think when you.
Speaker 3: Have pictures that are executing a little bit better and
Speaker 3: you just got louder stuff, having to travel so far
Speaker 3: with the barrel and having the mechanics that can kind
Speaker 3: of get awry, I think can get exposed a little
Speaker 3: bit more. And that's why I like think that this
Speaker 3: part is what's been ignored a little bit with laz
Speaker 3: is that two percent contact rate is is would be
Speaker 3: hard to have success with at the highest level, and
Speaker 3: he's doing it double because you can fall behind oh
Speaker 3: two and then just get a cookie down the middle.
Speaker 3: That's how it goes, and he doesn't miss those. But
Speaker 3: when you're down oh two in the big weeks, you're
Speaker 3: not gonna get that mistake to bail you out as
Speaker 3: much you're gonna get put away.
Speaker 2: So is a decent comp for him, Luke Raley. I
Speaker 2: brought this up to you before we started recording, but
Speaker 2: again you mentioned it. There is no prospect We've had
Speaker 2: to feel more questions about than Las Montes because again
Speaker 2: people people heard the Yordon comp five years ago and
Speaker 2: really haven't let go to it, which I'd never thought
Speaker 2: was a fair comp at all, because you're comparing him
Speaker 2: to maybe the best hitter in Major League Baseball when
Speaker 2: he doesn't have the approach that Jordon has. But if
Speaker 2: he's Luke Rayley with a little bit more power where
Speaker 2: he just crushes righties, he's not gonna play much against
Speaker 2: lefties because, by the way, as you know, Arm his
Speaker 2: platoon splits are really really rough. He's not gonna play
Speaker 2: a ton of defense, but he can provide some pop
Speaker 2: when there's a right handed arm on the mound. Like
Speaker 2: is that a decent I think, like Luke Railey if
Speaker 2: you're like a full power grade higher is not a
Speaker 2: bad camp.
Speaker 3: And I mean even look at like Luke Raley's max
Speaker 3: ex velocity. I think of his career as one hundred
Speaker 3: and fifteen point four miles per hour. Lass is at a
Speaker 3: homer one eighteen this year, so like, you know, there's
Speaker 3: more power in there. But in terms of like the
Speaker 3: qualifying contact rate and kind of the type of hitter
Speaker 3: you think he may be, yeah, he could look look
Speaker 3: something like that. But the interesting part is, like Luke Railey,
Speaker 3: he still hit twenty two homers in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 3: I think the Las monss version of that season would
Speaker 3: be thirty something homers. And if you do that, like
Speaker 3: he's gonna have years where he's could be a three
Speaker 3: win player and can be thirty forty percent above league
Speaker 3: average offensively. The problem is there's also gonna be stretches
Speaker 3: there where pictures are executing. I talk about it with
Speaker 3: some of my buddies that are like playing and that
Speaker 3: just have rough stretches that they don't think there's anything
Speaker 3: wrong with them. It's just like I'm getting mlb'd right now,
Speaker 3: where it's just you gotta tip the cap. There's nothing
Speaker 3: you can do just like good morning, good afternoon, good night.
Speaker 3: And I think with guys like last Monts like that's
Speaker 3: gonna happen a little bit more frequently, because if you
Speaker 3: execute your game plan against a guy with that much
Speaker 3: with you can put him away fairly off. And the
Speaker 3: thing is, I think he'll get himself to a point
Speaker 3: where he's never missing the mistakes. In the big leagues,
Speaker 3: he's he's hammering velocity, and anytime he's ahead, he's gonna
Speaker 3: he's You're gonna be in trouble.
Speaker 4: But I think it's gonna look something like that.
Speaker 3: Which is like the thirty to thirty three percent strikeout
Speaker 3: rate he homer is enough to you know, to keep
Speaker 3: that offensive production above average. And then when he's hot,
Speaker 3: you know, and and and he gets through a stretch
Speaker 3: where he's seeing enough over the heart of the plate,
Speaker 3: you know, he can give you some of the better
Speaker 3: hot stretches.
Speaker 4: That you'll get.
Speaker 3: I think what helps Montes' cases, he's got time to
Speaker 3: improve in that regard, and he could be a guy
Speaker 3: that makes a mechanical adjustment. If he improves his contact
Speaker 3: rate by five percent, you know, I think it makes
Speaker 3: a huge difference.
Speaker 1: I didn't even realize this until while you were talking
Speaker 1: of looking this uPAR him. There's not a single player
Speaker 1: in Major League Baseball currently at the at the top
Speaker 1: level who has a sixty percent contact yes.
Speaker 4: And I try to explain this.
Speaker 3: To people with players like Wells, and I just feel
Speaker 3: like I get yelled at and then they'll get all
Speaker 3: these other counterpoints.
Speaker 4: But that's the most important thing, Like what you have to.
Speaker 3: Make contact, no matter how good your quality of contact is,
Speaker 3: You've got to make contact. And I always look at
Speaker 3: the big league qualifiers and I'm like, all right, well,
Speaker 3: you know, who do you want to be? You know, like,
Speaker 3: what's your best case scenario then? Or do you want
Speaker 3: to be the new outlier? Do you want to be
Speaker 3: the new guy that figured out how to produce making
Speaker 3: contact half the time? I just don't good luck And
Speaker 3: maybe somebody could do that, but I'm not gonna bet
Speaker 3: on that guy.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna be like, hey, this is the guy
Speaker 3: to be the new outlier. It's going to be tough.
Speaker 3: So that's the problem with it is, Yeah, when you
Speaker 3: start to look at contact rates across the game, not
Speaker 3: a ton of guys are even qualifying South of sixty
Speaker 3: and I think the closest the closest example would have
Speaker 3: been Murakami, but we didn't even see Murakami have enough
Speaker 3: time to like start to maybe struggle a little bit
Speaker 3: or whatever it may have been. He's like sixty one percent.
Speaker 3: But again, the other aspect of it is murk Kami's
Speaker 3: one of the most patient hitters in Major League Baseball,
Speaker 3: so that would probably be the path that Liz would
Speaker 3: have to follow.
Speaker 5: There is unfortunately some Joey Gallow in his game.
Speaker 1: They're just yeah, like what I'm looking at here, guys,
Speaker 1: is that like if if there's like a dream scenario here.
Speaker 1: Nick Kurtz is in the bottom six in Major League
Speaker 1: Baseball in contact percentage, but Laz from his current rate
Speaker 1: would need to raise his contact percentage seven and a
Speaker 1: half percent just to get to Kurtz. He's number six.
Speaker 3: But that is kind of like the dream scenario because
Speaker 3: you have this elite ability to just destroy the baseball.
Speaker 4: He elevates the ball so consistently, and.
Speaker 3: That's why, like Laz has the path, that's why he's
Speaker 3: still a top one hundred prospects. Like he's got to
Speaker 3: be the lowest contact rate of a guy I've ever
Speaker 3: put on the top one hundred, but that's the avenue
Speaker 3: and it's still got to be yeah, six to seven
Speaker 3: percent better. And then you've got to have the you know,
Speaker 3: the approach and the ability and the consistency I think
Speaker 3: that Kurtz has. But that is like the dream and
Speaker 3: that that that's the amazing part with Kurtz is he
Speaker 3: is kind of the outlier to be as good as
Speaker 3: he isn't as consistent as he is.
Speaker 4: But to your point, it's got to increase by that much.
Speaker 3: At the highest level, Kurtz was seventy five percent plus.
Speaker 4: I think in the minor leagues.
Speaker 1: Let's shift to Michael Royal here because he got promoted
Speaker 1: alongside Las. It's clear he can hit, but where is
Speaker 1: he going to play defense? They've split him pretty evenly
Speaker 1: this year between second base and left field. Is there
Speaker 1: any data to suggest he's better at one of these
Speaker 1: positions after he's actually played these consistently in the regular season.
Speaker 3: It's funny because I think he's come along pretty well
Speaker 3: at second base, but then this year splitting the time
Speaker 3: I think is affected as rhythm a little bit at
Speaker 3: the position.
Speaker 4: When I watch.
Speaker 3: Him, I don't think he's bad in the outfield. I
Speaker 3: think there's a world where he can be a fine
Speaker 3: left fielder. And look, I think for a player like him,
Speaker 3: where you're not going to get a ton of value
Speaker 3: at any position, he plays, at least be versatile, and
Speaker 3: I think that helps his case. But I felt like
Speaker 3: you'd got to a point where he was playing second
Speaker 3: every day. It looked like he'd found a rhythm where
Speaker 3: he's very comfortable with the routine. He'd surprise you with
Speaker 3: the range a little bit, the arm accuracy had improved.
Speaker 3: But now that he's playing both, and I think it's
Speaker 3: a good thing that he's playing both, but it just
Speaker 3: has I think affected some of the consistency at second
Speaker 3: base and has affected his ability to maybe even make
Speaker 3: some of the routine.
Speaker 5: That's it.
Speaker 3: I think he's fringy at both, and I think that's
Speaker 3: a good thing. I'd rather you'd be fringy at two
Speaker 3: than one. And he's definitely not a disaster by any
Speaker 3: means in left field, and it's coming. It seems like
Speaker 3: he gets better each time you check in.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and just in terms of like Mariner's positional fits,
Speaker 2: that feels like a potential a ros or rain of replacement,
Speaker 2: because it's pretty likely Randy's going to sign elsewhere after
Speaker 2: this season, and the Mariners don't have a ton of
Speaker 2: open spots on their infield. But you know, you can
Speaker 2: maneuver it next year, where Donovan's still playing a majority
Speaker 2: of third base. He obviously have Cole Young and Colt
Speaker 2: Emerson up the middle and Arroyo and left. I mean,
Speaker 2: I think that would all work out positionally.
Speaker 3: I think so, And you know, he's quick enough to
Speaker 3: cover enough career. I think if he's really focusing just
Speaker 3: on that position, I think a Royal will get more
Speaker 3: and more comfortable out there and get to a point
Speaker 3: where he can be fine. And yeah, I think left
Speaker 3: is a little bit less demanding in general anyways.
Speaker 4: But I think with a Royal in general, I don't
Speaker 4: see why.
Speaker 3: He couldn't be a forty five grade defender at left
Speaker 3: field or forty grade at worst. And it was always
Speaker 3: gonna be bat first with him anyways, so I think
Speaker 3: he could be more than fine out there.
Speaker 1: What's your evaluation of what we've seen from Colt at
Speaker 1: the big league level.
Speaker 4: You know, you always kind of figured it was gonna
Speaker 4: be a bit of a process.
Speaker 3: You also know that he's long been one of my
Speaker 3: favorite prospects and guy that we had number two in
Speaker 3: our latest update overall and had number three. I think
Speaker 3: even before that the start of the season, I think
Speaker 3: all things considered.
Speaker 4: He's he's been solid. I think there's a little bit.
Speaker 3: Of him now of late too, just being on the
Speaker 3: defense and just try to trying not to.
Speaker 4: Strike out so much.
Speaker 3: Like it just seems like that's uncharacteristic territory for him.
Speaker 3: You saw a little bit of it and trip away
Speaker 3: though even too, which I think that Emerson situation, it
Speaker 3: might be part of the reason why they want Las
Speaker 3: up there too, is like even though this stuff might
Speaker 3: be sharper and double these guys are so good at
Speaker 3: executing and talking to players in their experience and making
Speaker 3: the adjustment in the past. Is like these catchers, they'll
Speaker 3: see one swing that you make and call the next
Speaker 3: pitch accordingly, and that never really happens in double A
Speaker 3: where they know they can kind of figure out how
Speaker 3: to get you out. It's a lot of big league
Speaker 3: former big league or guys that are up and down
Speaker 3: type of catchers, and the game planning is just different
Speaker 3: and all those different things, and you saw Emerson, who's
Speaker 3: just been so good back to ball wise, even in TRIPA,
Speaker 3: that strike out rate jump by ten percent. So I
Speaker 3: think with him, it's just kind of getting used to
Speaker 3: the idea that hey, I'm gonna whiffle a little bit
Speaker 3: more than I'm used to, and I think he's going
Speaker 3: to obviously chip away at that. But on the other
Speaker 3: side of it, it's seven homers in forty one games
Speaker 3: in a situation where I still think he's again battling
Speaker 3: it on the defense a little bit.
Speaker 4: I think is encouraging.
Speaker 3: I think the underlying I think people look at the
Speaker 3: savon page and say, oh no, But I don't worry
Speaker 3: about that as much. For a twenty year old who's
Speaker 3: getting his first taste of the big leagues and for
Speaker 3: a team that's been trying to spark it offensively, team
Speaker 3: that's really struggled from top to bottom against lefties anyways,
Speaker 3: I think a lot of other rookies in his position
Speaker 3: would be maybe insulated a little bit more, and he's
Speaker 3: just kind of been thrown out there, which I think
Speaker 3: is great because if the Mariners is going to reach
Speaker 3: their ceiling, it's because coleld Emerson really finds his stride
Speaker 3: in the second half, but I think overall it's been solid.
Speaker 3: I think there's been some yellowish flags. I thought the
Speaker 3: swing decisions would be a little bit better. But it's
Speaker 3: important to remember that he's only played thirty or forty
Speaker 3: four games above Double A.
Speaker 4: And this is a player that also lost out.
Speaker 3: On a lot of minor league games period through injuries
Speaker 3: in the past, so he's still kind of developing at
Speaker 3: the highest level.
Speaker 4: He was just good enough for his last phase.
Speaker 3: Of development to be still while he's trying to help
Speaker 3: a win now big league team.
Speaker 2: Let me ask you about one more prospect before we
Speaker 2: get to a little bit of draft stuff, because it's
Speaker 2: the prospect that currently sits at the highest spot on
Speaker 2: your guys' list. And we talked about Kate Anderson for
Speaker 2: the first few minutes this episode, and for every good reason,
Speaker 2: because he's been phenomenal. You guys have him ranked to ten,
Speaker 2: which is a stunt, like you're the ten rank prospect
Speaker 2: in baseball. You're doing a lot of things really really well.
Speaker 2: But you guys have Ryan Sloan at five, and I
Speaker 2: feel like there's no point at this point where you
Speaker 2: can talk about one arm in the Mariners system without
Speaker 2: the other.
Speaker 5: And we talked about Cade, but why do you love Sloan?
Speaker 3: Yeah, And this is like the important note of you know,
Speaker 3: we're ranking future big leaguers and not the not minor
Speaker 3: leaguers right because if you're ranking minor leaguers right now,
Speaker 3: of course Kate Anderson, it might be the best prospect
Speaker 3: in baseball. But and I think Kate Anderson projects really,
Speaker 3: really well, and you could see a guy that could
Speaker 3: be could be a front line arm I think most
Speaker 3: likely Lands is a really solid too. Ryan Sloan has
Speaker 3: the stuff to be an ACE, and Ace is not
Speaker 3: the best pitcher on a team aces And it's funny
Speaker 3: talking about this with scouts is like, I think people
Speaker 3: think there's thirty Aces.
Speaker 4: There's like eight to ten at a given time.
Speaker 3: If that that's generous in Major League baseball. Sloane has
Speaker 3: that kind of stuff, and I think it's important to
Speaker 3: note like he's just turned twenty years old, he's in
Speaker 3: the same league that Yes, it's been amazing how Kate
Speaker 3: Anderson's been able to limit damage, But Swoane, I think
Speaker 3: people might look at the era and be like, oh,
Speaker 3: it's inflated. The ball was flying ridiculously out there. He
Speaker 3: had a couple I would just say it kind of
Speaker 3: clunker starts, but otherwise the strikeout to walk rate this
Speaker 3: kid is was nineteen years old at the start of
Speaker 3: the season. He's seventy seven strikeouts to twelve walks at
Speaker 3: double A. The thing that I get most excited about
Speaker 3: is his fastball is averaging ninety six and a half
Speaker 3: miles per hour and it's not even It might be
Speaker 3: one of my least favorite aspects of his arsenal and
Speaker 3: of his game. It's the whole pitch mix that stands
Speaker 3: out to me. I think his sweeper is one of
Speaker 3: the best in the minor leagues. The cutter is fantastic.
Speaker 3: The fact that like he just picks up a baseball
Speaker 3: in spring training and says, I'm gonna try to figure
Speaker 3: out how to throw a sinker and adds that. And
Speaker 3: that was the biggest thing, because I think the one
Speaker 3: concern was, Okay, what's the face the fastball shape gonna
Speaker 3: look like. The best way to insulate fastball shape is
Speaker 3: one throw really hard to throw another fastball, and he's
Speaker 3: doing both of those things. So when you have all
Speaker 3: of those things coming together where you've got a clear
Speaker 3: plus heater. You've got a seventy grade sweeper. This splitter
Speaker 3: just continues to come along, and that's a plus pitch,
Speaker 3: and then this bridge cutter in between, and then oh yeah,
Speaker 3: by the way, this newly turned twenty year old six
Speaker 3: foot five, two hundred and twenty pound, you know, just
Speaker 3: stud commands his stuff outrageously well, like seventy percent strike
Speaker 3: rate on fastballs, sixty eight percent strike rate on breaking balls,
Speaker 3: and a sixty percent strike rate on the on the splitter,
Speaker 3: and that could come along a little bit more, but
Speaker 3: it's not bad at all for where he's at. We're
Speaker 3: talking about a potential ace. If it all comes together.
Speaker 2: That where would he I mean, that's so fun to
Speaker 2: just hear and hear you break down because you're one
Speaker 2: hundred percent right about there's a different There's not thirty
Speaker 2: aces in baseball. Every team can have a number one,
Speaker 2: but you're one hundred percent right the aces in baseball.
Speaker 2: You're right, there's there's less than ten. And it's the
Speaker 2: names everybody knows Scoobale, Skimes, Sanchez, Yamamoto like that group.
Speaker 2: So to hear you say he could one day be
Speaker 2: in that rank of guys is Marrion's van should be
Speaker 2: pretty excited.
Speaker 3: I'm glad I could say that after like just the
Speaker 3: whole lass uh uh rain on the parade there, but no,
Speaker 3: they should be. And you also put it like you
Speaker 3: put him in an organization that like it's like the logan.
Speaker 4: You look at the logan Gilbert.
Speaker 3: Template and you build with Sloan and you have your
Speaker 3: hands on swe earlier. You have some one that's ahead
Speaker 3: of where Gilbert was at at that age. But you
Speaker 3: have the success I think with so many different talented,
Speaker 3: talented right handers. And doesn't mean that it's going to
Speaker 3: end up the same way, But I would love to
Speaker 3: just get Mariners people on record that have been there
Speaker 3: long enough to see, like all of these guys and say,
Speaker 3: how does Sloan compare to talent wise to all of
Speaker 3: them at the age that you brought them into the organization.
Speaker 3: And my guess would be that they'd say Slowness is
Speaker 3: as talented, if not the most talented, of any of them.
Speaker 1: Where do how does he look different in a bullpen?
Speaker 1: You think, because it sounds like the Murders will bring
Speaker 1: him up in I would guess September and put him
Speaker 1: in that bullpen for the past.
Speaker 2: So that's the reporting out there and we'll see if
Speaker 2: it happens. But they think in September Caid and Sloan
Speaker 2: are both going to be in the pen for if
Speaker 2: this team makes the playoffs. Their ideas like, just get
Speaker 2: your best thirteen arms in the organization on the roster
Speaker 2: and see what happens.
Speaker 3: I love it because also like two elite makeup guys too,
Speaker 3: that the experience would be so invaluable for them, and
Speaker 3: having another left team the fold in general with with
Speaker 3: with Kid would be great. Like I said, I think
Speaker 3: the one area is like maybe the fastball could get
Speaker 3: hit a little bit just because of the shape if
Speaker 3: he's if he's not executing it as well as he
Speaker 3: possibly can. But then you've got the two different fastballs,
Speaker 3: and then him in short spurts s everaging ninety six,
Speaker 3: he's touching ninety nine plus on the fastball affording with
Speaker 3: triple digits. If he's in a one to two inning
Speaker 3: spurt with adrenaline, he's probably gonna be sitting ninety eight
Speaker 3: ninety nine exceeding triple digits. And if you're doing that
Speaker 3: fastball shape matters a lot lot less and he has
Speaker 3: touched one hundred this year, So like, I think that
Speaker 3: fastball sweeper combination alone in right on right matchups would
Speaker 3: be a nightmare for hitters. And then the fact that
Speaker 3: he's got the cutter and the splitter too is great.
Speaker 4: But I think if you're putting him in a position.
Speaker 3: For success, like he could be at low leverage right
Speaker 3: on right situations and just be way too good for
Speaker 3: that spot. So like the field, because the feel for
Speaker 3: the splitter is still coming along, he doesn't even need it.
Speaker 3: You go right on right with that seventy grade sweeper
Speaker 3: and a fastball at ninety eight and two different fastballs,
Speaker 3: I think he's gonna be pretty good in a bullpen.
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Speaker 1: these draft prospects that the mariners might pick here in
Speaker 1: a week from now or less than a week from now. Actually,
Speaker 1: who is someone we haven't talked about yet that you
Speaker 1: think Mariners finn should look out for here in the
Speaker 1: second half.
Speaker 4: Ooh, that's a good question.
Speaker 3: It's funny because Arroyo would have been my pick just
Speaker 3: because of the way that he's swinging it of late?
Speaker 3: Can I can you come back to me on that one.
Speaker 4: I want to give you. I want to give you
Speaker 4: a proper answer. Sure, let's okay the.
Speaker 5: End of the show, we can come back to it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll give you a good answer on that one
Speaker 4: on the back end.
Speaker 2: So with that, let's transition a little bit to the draft,
Speaker 2: because it's like TJ said, we are days away from
Speaker 2: the MLB Draft. Every draft seems to have its own
Speaker 2: theme or its own kind of makeup.
Speaker 5: Does this draft have a theme to you?
Speaker 3: This one is interesting because you know, twenty four was
Speaker 3: very college heavy. I think twenty five felt like it
Speaker 3: was a little bit more high school heavy.
Speaker 4: This one, I just think is top heavy. And I
Speaker 4: don't mean that.
Speaker 3: To say like the Mariners won't get somebody really good.
Speaker 3: And we already saw this in the twenty five dropt.
Speaker 3: There's been like second third rounders that have just been
Speaker 3: going off that all of a sudden are top one
Speaker 3: hundred prospects. It just feels like for me, there's a
Speaker 3: clear like Tier one one A and it's Chilawski, you know,
Speaker 3: And you can say this in a lot of years,
Speaker 3: but I just I feel like this year especially, it
Speaker 3: just kind of jumps down a little bit, at least
Speaker 3: just for the obvious before these guys played professionally. When
Speaker 3: you look at chowlawski Emerson and Lackey especially, like those
Speaker 3: guys just kind of feel like they're in their own
Speaker 3: element and even you could maybe throw Buris is like
Speaker 3: the one buffer guy between that. But then when you
Speaker 3: go to the next tier of like those bats, I
Speaker 3: just think it kind of drops, which doesn't affect the
Speaker 3: Mariners at all. I'd be kind of worried about it
Speaker 3: if I picked at like nine, because I'm like, I'm
Speaker 3: in this a little bit of an in between phase. Again,
Speaker 3: things always change, but as of right now, that's the
Speaker 3: one theme for me is just and then the other
Speaker 3: is just.
Speaker 4: I feel like it's it's a heavy at the top.
Speaker 3: There's a lot of arms in the Mariners range, and
Speaker 3: I think that's why they're kind of tied towards a
Speaker 3: lot more of those arms.
Speaker 4: But for me, I think that's that's kind of the case.
Speaker 1: Are the Mariners going to get back to their roots
Speaker 1: in this draft and go back on a run of
Speaker 1: drafting college pitchers?
Speaker 3: This would be kind of the draft to do that.
Speaker 3: I think it depends on how things shake out, you know,
Speaker 3: like who they got on their big board and whatever
Speaker 3: it may be. However, with the way that you assume,
Speaker 3: and it doesn't always go that way, but the way
Speaker 3: that you would assume, the draft would kind of unfold.
Speaker 3: It seems like a lot of the guys that would
Speaker 3: be on their perceived big board would that would be available,
Speaker 3: there would be arms, and so I could see it
Speaker 3: going that way.
Speaker 4: That said, like we're going to talk about some individual players.
Speaker 3: I think there's a couple of bats, one in particular
Speaker 3: that if he's there, and maybe I'm wrong, I just
Speaker 3: I really like this guy and Bo Lawrence I think
Speaker 3: he could go earlier than that, and I based on
Speaker 3: what the Mariners have done in the past, I think
Speaker 3: would be a guy that they would really like and
Speaker 3: just just kind of fits the bill of they have
Speaker 3: such a good eye for just these these advanced high
Speaker 3: school hitters with the makeup that is just going to
Speaker 3: work really well, and like they draft people so well.
Speaker 3: I love Bo Lawrence and I think he could be
Speaker 3: a good fit for them. But when you look at
Speaker 3: the way that you anticipate the draft to run off,
Speaker 3: it seems like a college arm kind of fits the
Speaker 3: bill for them.
Speaker 1: Let me know if organizations think this way, because like
Speaker 1: if you're the Mariners, this this group of people running
Speaker 1: the org have been there now for a whole decade,
Speaker 1: and they have a decade's worth of data that every
Speaker 1: time they pick a college starting pitcher in the first round,
Speaker 1: the worst case outcome is the guy who threw seven
Speaker 1: shoutout innings on Sunday in Emerson Hancock. Like that's literally
Speaker 1: out of the college pitchers, that's the worst one they drafted.
Speaker 1: Or so I guess you what, Roldan, why would you
Speaker 1: do anything else when you have like examples of these
Speaker 1: high school hitters you've picked, where you have one super
Speaker 1: blue chip prospect in Colt Emerson, but then you have
Speaker 1: a lot more volatility after that.
Speaker 2: I was gonna just say really quick, like, I guess
Speaker 2: you could throw Jorangelo into that bunch, but if he's
Speaker 2: the worst one, you got Brandon Donovan out of him.
Speaker 3: But that's going to say you knew, you you he
Speaker 3: still had a ton of value and you maybe knew
Speaker 3: the writing was on the wall that wasn't as good
Speaker 3: as you'd hoped, and you capitalize, right, It's funny because
Speaker 3: I think that one hundred teams are cognizant of like
Speaker 3: what they're good at, and I think a big part
Speaker 3: of that has to be, like, hey, we we develop
Speaker 3: these types of players quite well, and we do well there.
Speaker 3: But at the same time, you don't want to shoehorn
Speaker 3: a pick to fit your your tendencies if the draft
Speaker 3: doesn't call for it, right, And I think that's where
Speaker 3: it's there's a balance. I think if you've got two
Speaker 3: exactly similar players in their big board, it's twenty one
Speaker 3: and twenty two, and one fits kind of what they've
Speaker 3: had a lot more success with, I think that's something
Speaker 3: they consider. But you could also argue that the Mariner's
Speaker 3: about a lot of success with you know, high school bets,
Speaker 3: and they've had a lot of success in a lot
Speaker 3: of other ways. And actually, like in the time that
Speaker 3: we've had now, I could give you a couple of
Speaker 3: the answers of guys that I think are going to
Speaker 3: ball out in the second half. Both are high school bats,
Speaker 3: by the way, But I think I think it's something
Speaker 3: they consider. But ultimately, I really do believe, especially in
Speaker 3: MLB draft, aside from the variable of like negotiating the
Speaker 3: deals because it is kind of open season more than
Speaker 3: people like to think in terms of just like negotiating
Speaker 3: it and that being a big.
Speaker 4: Part of it.
Speaker 3: It's the best player available that they can work a
Speaker 3: deal with, and if that doesn't work out, then yeah,
Speaker 3: maybe they go back to what they're comfortable with.
Speaker 1: When do these agreements take place? Like, are there agreements
Speaker 1: in place right now?
Speaker 3: I think there's a lot of tentative agreements in place
Speaker 3: right now. Yeah, and a lot of back and forth
Speaker 3: and a lot of things change, especially as it gets closer.
Speaker 3: But a lot of phone calls, a lot of busy agents,
Speaker 3: a lot of conversations. If this goes like this, then
Speaker 3: you know, we'll agree to this and all of that stuff.
Speaker 3: But I will also say it goes the other way
Speaker 3: off and a lot I hear all the time players
Speaker 3: being drafted.
Speaker 4: I had no communication with the team.
Speaker 3: We just And that's one where it's maybe the team
Speaker 3: had two or three guys that they had some arrangements
Speaker 3: made with they came off the board, or they they
Speaker 3: as a pick got closer, changed their mind, somebody else
Speaker 3: came in with a better off, whatever it may be.
Speaker 3: Bottom down, a team behind the Mariners offered a couple
Speaker 3: hundred thousand dollars more who knows, and they got a
Speaker 3: panic and go make another pick, and they'll just go
Speaker 3: off the big board and say, we haven't really talked
Speaker 3: to this guy yet, like let's take him and we'll
Speaker 3: figure it out.
Speaker 4: And it kind of.
Speaker 3: Goes all ways, which is why the MLB draft is
Speaker 3: just so nuts.
Speaker 2: So different than the NFL draft and the NBA draft
Speaker 2: in that way, because you know, there's not negotiating like
Speaker 2: that in those drafts for the most part, or in
Speaker 2: baseball it's so different. Let me let me throw a
Speaker 2: couple of names at you, because at least in mock
Speaker 2: drafts and and what you guys have talked about at
Speaker 2: points two. If the Mariners draft the college arm, something
Speaker 2: they've done a lot, the guys that seem to be
Speaker 2: in that mix are as follows. Because there's a couple
Speaker 2: name You've seen Kyd Townsend from Old miss. You've seen
Speaker 2: Cole Carlon from ASU. There's Tegankuns from Tennessee. There's Mason
Speaker 2: Edwards from USC. There's probably a couple of it I'm missing,
Speaker 2: but there's a handful of college arms projected around that range.
Speaker 2: Is there one guy you like better than the rest
Speaker 2: of that bunch.
Speaker 3: I like Townsend the most, I think, and I like
Speaker 3: him as a good fit for this or too. The
Speaker 3: fact it's funny because it's such a deep mix and
Speaker 3: you'll get swowns. It's similar in the regard that, like,
Speaker 3: if there's one knock, it's probably that the fastball performance.
Speaker 3: And now Swan's fastball is performing really well because he
Speaker 3: throws so hard at the level and the two fastballs,
Speaker 3: but like Townshend's fastball, you'll get the specs. I would
Speaker 3: have thought it would perform a little bit better.
Speaker 4: It didn't.
Speaker 3: That was like his one achilles heel, I guess. But
Speaker 3: there's so many secondaries and such a sharp combination of
Speaker 3: breaking balls and a pretty good change up as well
Speaker 3: that I think that's a really fun pitcher for them
Speaker 3: to build on. And they say, Okay, well, maybe you know,
Speaker 3: he finds a tick or so, or maybe he finds
Speaker 3: change up or whatever it may be.
Speaker 4: But Towns in like the cutter looks like it could
Speaker 4: be an elite pitch.
Speaker 3: It's just wipe out the slider off of that looks
Speaker 3: like it could be a plus pitch as well. The
Speaker 3: changeup is flashed above average hole mix and a curveball
Speaker 3: as well, and the fastball like it's getting nineteen plus
Speaker 3: inches avert. I just think his release can be a
Speaker 3: little bit stock and I think hitters just tend to
Speaker 3: see it pretty well. So that's something that you know
Speaker 3: they'll they'll try to work through. But I don't think
Speaker 3: of the group of arms, I don't think anybody has
Speaker 3: it as complete of a pitch mix as Townsend does.
Speaker 3: And I still think he can be able to work
Speaker 3: through the fastball, maybe underperforming a little bit.
Speaker 4: Why did he have the most? Oh? Go ahead, low?
Speaker 5: Oh?
Speaker 2: I was gonna say, there's still other guys to talk about,
Speaker 2: But why do I feel like he's going to be
Speaker 2: the pick? I was wondering who your answer was going
Speaker 2: to be amongst this? He kind of feels like a Mariner.
Speaker 2: And it's not just because you said it. That's exactly
Speaker 2: the name Joe Doyle throughout to us a couple of
Speaker 2: months ago, like the right. Yeah, so you guys have
Speaker 2: both said Townshend feels like a really good fit, paired
Speaker 2: with again right handed college arm, decently polish, like has
Speaker 2: a couple of pitchers that have the chance to be
Speaker 2: really really plus offerings.
Speaker 5: I don't know.
Speaker 2: For some reason, I'll call my shot here now and
Speaker 2: I have nowhere near the information that people like you
Speaker 2: and Joe do, But I feel like that's gonna be
Speaker 2: the pick if he's there.
Speaker 3: It's exactly how I felt when I was going through it.
Speaker 3: And the other fun part is, I know a lot
Speaker 3: of teams kind of subscribe to this, but the Mariners
Speaker 3: as much as any they don't draft the era right,
Speaker 3: and it's like a four to seven eight career era
Speaker 3: for Townsend, late Bloomer in terms of just like really
Speaker 3: finding it command wise. This past year, you walk twenty
Speaker 3: and thirty four innings twenty twenty five, and he walked
Speaker 3: twenty two and double the innings, you know, this past season.
Speaker 3: I always feel like the Mariners love those up arrow
Speaker 3: guys that still aren't even close to hitting that next step,
Speaker 3: and it's a template that.
Speaker 4: I just think they can work really well with.
Speaker 1: Does he have the highest upside of this batch of
Speaker 1: pitchers at that pick or is there someone else?
Speaker 3: Pitching is so tough because it's like an abstract dar
Speaker 3: like there'll be guys that I just don't think have
Speaker 3: the same up but then they add two pitches, or
Speaker 3: they find something and or they find two ticks and
Speaker 3: it's like holy crap.
Speaker 4: So you never know.
Speaker 3: But when you look at like Cold Carlin, like it's
Speaker 3: there's a reliever risk there, but he has a wipeout
Speaker 3: slider from the left side and average ninety six with
Speaker 3: his fastball, So like theoretically, if he finds a third
Speaker 3: pitch that's more reliable and he's filling up the zone,
Speaker 3: that guy could have his high of a ceiling he
Speaker 3: as anybody. But for me, when I'm looking at just
Speaker 3: the template and what i'd want to work with and
Speaker 3: what you can kind of build off of as a
Speaker 3: starting pitcher, I think Townsend does have the highest ceiling
Speaker 3: because even when you go to like Tikan Kun's like
Speaker 3: fastball's got great shape at ninety three to ninety five,
Speaker 3: but then the secondary's just lagged behind. He's got a
Speaker 3: good curveball. I think that looks like a plus pitch,
Speaker 3: but that's the upper seventies curveball. So you always wonder
Speaker 3: how some of those like slower breaking balls are going
Speaker 3: to perform against professional hitters. I think it'll perform well,
Speaker 3: But then the gyro slider didn't perform as well, and
Speaker 3: the rest of the secondary's just lag behind Mason Edwards.
Speaker 3: It's like ceiling wise left inner from usc like low nineties.
Speaker 3: He has some deception to his delivery, but anytime I'm
Speaker 3: using the word deception, the ceiling is not going to
Speaker 3: be as high. So it's a low nineties with deception.
Speaker 3: Crossfire curveball is a banger, but this is a guy
Speaker 3: that's going to need to execute to have success. So
Speaker 3: I do think Talenten has the best or the highest
Speaker 3: ceiling of those guys, assuming Carlin doesn't like spawn a
Speaker 3: new pitch and just just you know, have this like
Speaker 3: Peytent Toley type of ascension.
Speaker 1: What about someone like Cameron Flukey, who we've also seen.
Speaker 4: Sheer raw ceiling.
Speaker 3: You could make the Flukey case, and I think that
Speaker 3: would be the one guy that I think has maybe
Speaker 3: the highest individual ceiling of the bunch. But he also
Speaker 3: comes with like, you know, some concerned floor wise, you know,
Speaker 3: like he's coming off of injury that limited him a
Speaker 3: fair amount this year. His fastball maybe as good as
Speaker 3: is just about anybody's in the draft. You look at
Speaker 3: Flora like that's probably the gold standard in general in
Speaker 3: the draft, but there's effort in the delivery. It's a
Speaker 3: long arm action. The command just off of the injury
Speaker 3: just wasn't there. But when you look at what could
Speaker 3: be with Fluky, this is a guy that has again,
Speaker 3: I would say other than Flora, probably has the second
Speaker 3: highest ceiling pitching wise in the draft. Maybe you could
Speaker 3: probably throw Gio Rohash because he's a prep left. He
Speaker 3: throws fuzz as well. But I think when you look
Speaker 3: at Fluki's fastball and pair of breaking balls and he's
Speaker 3: six six, that's someone that I think the Mariners will
Speaker 3: look at though, and if they picked him, it's like
Speaker 3: we feel confident that we can clean a couple of
Speaker 3: things up with the delivery, and if he's healthy, he
Speaker 3: can be a rocket ship. But you're gonna have a
Speaker 3: lot more I think hands on work there to get
Speaker 3: to that ceiling if.
Speaker 2: They're gonna go position player. As we start to wrap
Speaker 2: this conversation up, you already mentioned Bo Lawrence. We can
Speaker 2: start with him, but if they go bat over arm
Speaker 2: in this draft, Bo Lawrence is the high school bad
Speaker 2: who you're really high on. So why do you like
Speaker 2: the guy?
Speaker 3: Swing is so advanced and I think there's so much
Speaker 3: projection in there too. He's younger for the class. He's
Speaker 3: still eighteen years old, will be eighteen until September, middle
Speaker 3: of September six five, two hundred, and really is moving
Speaker 3: well on the left side of the infield. For he
Speaker 3: may ultimately slide over to third, but I think he
Speaker 3: could be really solid there and they'll probably give him
Speaker 3: some opportunity.
Speaker 4: To prove that he could.
Speaker 3: He could stick it short, but regardless, like moves really
Speaker 3: well on the left side of the infield.
Speaker 4: I'm just so impressed at how smooth the swing.
Speaker 3: Is for a kid that's that big and long levered
Speaker 3: and just just already so ahead in that regard, and
Speaker 3: you think about how much power could be in there
Speaker 3: as he just continues to fill out, because he's still
Speaker 3: just very slender and the swing is very smooth. But
Speaker 3: I think could he could generate a little bit more
Speaker 3: violence in there, but it's all already so repeatable.
Speaker 4: He has such a good feel for the barrel.
Speaker 3: You know he's going to grow into more strength and
Speaker 3: I think kind of fits the bill of the Mariners
Speaker 3: really focus on the way kids carry themselves.
Speaker 4: I really like the way he goes about his business.
Speaker 3: I think this is a guy that's very mature for
Speaker 3: his age, and that's big reason why the Mariners have
Speaker 3: so much success out of the draft too. I think
Speaker 3: Lawrence checks a lot of their boxes and and again
Speaker 3: I think fits the bill of the type of high
Speaker 3: scores that they've had success with.
Speaker 1: What other bats do you have in mind?
Speaker 3: I think the other that I've heard a decent about
Speaker 3: a bit about, and I think you're gonna have a
Speaker 3: lot of pressure on the bat, but manags are a
Speaker 3: lot to like with the bat is Logan Hughes.
Speaker 4: Crazy bat speed, can.
Speaker 3: Absolutely pulverize velocity and and is good enough against breaking balls.
Speaker 3: I think the swing is you don't want to see
Speaker 3: much change from there, Like he's he's already in a
Speaker 3: really good spot. And I just think from what you
Speaker 3: see from him production wise, I could see Hughes being
Speaker 3: a guy that they just get excited about.
Speaker 4: The bat.
Speaker 3: You see like a dom Can zone type like it
Speaker 3: kind of fits, kind of fits that mold. There's just
Speaker 3: so much violence to the swing, but also at the
Speaker 3: same time pretty controlled and making a lot more contact
Speaker 3: than you'd expect.
Speaker 2: So who's your so who's your narrator's prospect? That's going
Speaker 2: to go off in the second half or.
Speaker 4: Having a good two And I'm sorry I was not
Speaker 4: ready for that off the dome.
Speaker 5: We kind of we kind of sideswiped you with that question.
Speaker 5: But I don't know.
Speaker 3: I've been a little bit slow on the last couple
Speaker 3: of days fighting this cold, I swear, But Johnny Farmelo
Speaker 3: has been on another planet, and that one should have
Speaker 3: been on the top of my head right away, just
Speaker 3: because I think Farmelo I talk about personality and makeup
Speaker 3: that you buy into, but just just also has always
Speaker 3: had all the talent. It's just been injured, frankly, like
Speaker 3: it's just been not being available and not really being
Speaker 3: able to develop properly. You know, last thirty games, he's
Speaker 3: got one thousand and forty two oh ps a one
Speaker 3: to sixty five WRC plus he's coming along defensively in
Speaker 3: center field. I think the fact that he's chipped away
Speaker 3: at some of the swing and miss well and in
Speaker 3: that span, by the way, only twenty two percent strikeout. Right,
Speaker 3: He's patient, He's sitting the ball hard, don't I'm really
Speaker 3: excited about what Farmelo's doing. And then Nick Becker, it's
Speaker 3: going to be a challenge for him at low a like.
Speaker 3: I think that's going to be a general challenge, but
Speaker 3: the quality of contact and speed combination is crazy, So
Speaker 3: once he gets up from the complex, there might be
Speaker 3: some swing and miss, but I think there's a guy
Speaker 3: that's going to turn enough heads with with what he
Speaker 3: can bring to the table defense, speed wise, power wise,
Speaker 3: and with how much more power could be in the
Speaker 3: tank for this nineteen year old. He's been really productive
Speaker 3: at the complex, but I think if you can find
Speaker 3: a way to cut down on the whiff a little
Speaker 3: bit more, this guy could be a monster with the power, speed, power,
Speaker 3: speed defense combination.
Speaker 4: ARM.
Speaker 1: This has been awesome as always. We will all be
Speaker 1: together for the draft, so that should be a ton
Speaker 1: of fun and we'll love to get to check with
Speaker 1: you in person about whatever goes down this weekend in
Speaker 1: Philadelphia and the Mariners pick at number twenty four. Always
Speaker 1: appreciate you taking some time to come on with us
Speaker 1: and hope to have you on again soon anytime.
Speaker 4: Guys. You know I love it. I appreciate you guys
Speaker 4: having me on well.
Speaker 5: Shout out to ARM.
Speaker 2: I'm definitely fired up for the draft on Sunday and
Speaker 2: I cannot wait to see what a bunch of these
Speaker 2: prospects have in the second half, Kid Sloan Farmelo, a
Speaker 2: bunch of these guys, our guy Nicki Becker. Arm's great
Speaker 2: and unlike TJ said at the start, the way he
Speaker 2: breaks things down is really really informative, and every time
Speaker 2: we talk with Arm, I always end up learning so much.
Speaker 2: Let me just make one quick note before we start
Speaker 2: to wrap up the pod. We didn't talk at the
Speaker 2: start of the show about the scene around Seattle on
Speaker 2: Monday for the World Cup, So let me just say,
Speaker 2: very very very cool environment. It was packed as we
Speaker 2: all thought it was going to be. It was a
Speaker 2: very cool scene around the stadiums. All that being said,
Speaker 2: Tmusa is a bunch of frauds.
Speaker 1: I mean this is typical, right.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 1: You get to the point where you play countries where
Speaker 1: they have better players at every position, and it's like yeah,
Speaker 1: and then someone like me who doesn't actually watch soccer
Speaker 1: realizes like, okay, like all the players and the other
Speaker 1: teams play in the Premier League or in at PSG
Speaker 1: or something, all these top teams and in the US
Speaker 1: it's like not really, It's.
Speaker 2: Like, oh, it's like Christian Polisic sometimes starts in the
Speaker 2: Premier League, it's like, oh, that's our best player.
Speaker 1: Then reality sets in and you're like, oh, oh yeah,
Speaker 1: right right. See in other countries, well they pay youth
Speaker 1: players to play in their academies. In the US, you
Speaker 1: have to pay for it, and that kind of it
Speaker 1: kind of answers the question on why soccer players aren't
Speaker 1: as good.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Poliitic really does not have one single standout World
Speaker 2: Cup moment, does he.
Speaker 5: Like Donovan's had, his, Dempsey had his Politic does not
Speaker 5: have one.
Speaker 1: I mean his standout moment from this World Cup was
Speaker 1: him getting kicked in the calf and missing a game
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 4: Mm hmm.
Speaker 5: That was too bad.
Speaker 2: It would have been such a cool scene if if
Speaker 2: they had won, like the scene afterwards if they had won.
Speaker 1: But it was still really fun down there. As you
Speaker 1: talked about, every single viewing party anywhere at any bar
Speaker 1: or any any of the ones the city put on
Speaker 1: were all just jam packed. Every single neighborhood had hundreds,
Speaker 1: if not thousands of people crowded around the screens to
Speaker 1: watch these games. Unfortunately, it was just kind of flat,
Speaker 1: so flat from about like the thirtieth minute on.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean they scored it, tie it up in
Speaker 2: thirty thirty seconds later, let up another.
Speaker 1: Goal and then yeah, it didn't score again. Now it
Speaker 1: was a bummer. It would have been nice if it continued.
Speaker 1: But at least we did get the maximum amount of
Speaker 1: like great games in Seattle as we possibly could of,
Speaker 1: so that.
Speaker 5: Was pretty great.
Speaker 2: If there's one Seattle takeaway from this World Cup, we
Speaker 2: already know it, but hopefully the rest of the world
Speaker 2: knows it now. Seattle's a pretty awesome sports town.
Speaker 5: It really is. Fans show out.
Speaker 1: Now, they really did. For a bunch of people, including myself,
Speaker 1: we don't really watch soccer, but for an event like this,
Speaker 1: you have to show out.
Speaker 2: Yeah all right, That just about wraps up this edition
Speaker 2: of the Marine Layer podcast.
Speaker 5: You guys know the drill.
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Speaker 2: single day at Marine layer Pod. That's TJ a'm lyle.
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