WEBVTT - Gene Seroka Talks Port Strikes

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>The first dockworker strike on the US East Coast since

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<v Speaker 2>nineteen seventy seven. It began early today after an eleventh

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<v Speaker 2>hour boost in the employer's wage offer came up short.

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<v Speaker 2>Union members hit the picket lines after midnight, container terminals

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<v Speaker 2>closed in Carol Autoshipment's ground to a halt.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah. Absolutely. Gin Soroka knows firsthand about contract negotiations involving

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<v Speaker 3>DOC workers. He dealt with prolonged negotiations and delays and

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<v Speaker 3>slowdowns in the movement of goods along the West Coast

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<v Speaker 3>ports that finally resulted in a new contract just about

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<v Speaker 3>a year ago. Gene is the executive director of Port

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<v Speaker 3>of Los Angeles and joins us from La Gene, good

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<v Speaker 3>to have you here on what is turning out to

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<v Speaker 3>be a very very busy day. First up, I am

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<v Speaker 3>curious in terms of I guess I almost want to

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<v Speaker 3>ask you about the Middle East, because it is one

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<v Speaker 3>of those big things when we wrapped up the trading

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<v Speaker 3>year about a year ago that when we talk about

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<v Speaker 3>risks to the world, the investment, environment, geopolitics came up.

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<v Speaker 3>Before we get into the East Coast strike, I would

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<v Speaker 3>love for you to weigh in on what is happening

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<v Speaker 3>in the Middle East and if at all you see

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<v Speaker 3>any impact or concerns about maybe the outlook of your world.

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<v Speaker 1>Good afternoon, Carolyn, tim and You're exactly right. There are

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of geopolitical influences on supply chain decision makers

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<v Speaker 1>and have been for some time. Looking at the Middle

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<v Speaker 1>East today, cargo ships are still re routing around the

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<v Speaker 1>Cape of Good Hope in Africa, avoiding the Red Sea

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<v Speaker 1>with the hoothy Rebels. Suez Canal receipts are down eighty

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<v Speaker 1>to ninety percent, and there's no less than four ongoing conflicts.

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<v Speaker 1>This causes great concern for the certainty of the supply

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<v Speaker 1>chain and how you have to do reroutes and workarounds

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<v Speaker 1>to keep commerce flowing. But our thoughts and minds and

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<v Speaker 1>hearts are with the people on the ground, so I'm

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<v Speaker 1>sure families are safe.

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<v Speaker 3>So layer on top of that, and then the strike

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<v Speaker 3>that we're now seeing on the East coast port obviously

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<v Speaker 3>not ideal for many many different reasons. Are you seeing,

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<v Speaker 3>first of all, increased traffic on the west coast ports

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<v Speaker 3>your port in particular because of what's happening here on

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<v Speaker 3>the East Coast.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, Carol, we started to see an uptick in cargo

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<v Speaker 1>volume at the beginning of the year. People were a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit concerned, not only about a protracted dock workers negotiation,

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<v Speaker 1>but drought conditions in the Panama Canal in addition to

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<v Speaker 1>those security concerns in the Red Sea. Our cargo volume

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<v Speaker 1>is up seventeen percent year to date, and we've had

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<v Speaker 1>a very long peak season that began in June and

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<v Speaker 1>still continues with some steam here now going into October.

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<v Speaker 1>In fact, our third quarter ending yesterday is our best

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<v Speaker 1>on record in one hundred and sixteen years.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you see that continuing into the fourth quarter, which

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<v Speaker 2>starts today.

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<v Speaker 1>Typically the month of October is met with the Golden

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<v Speaker 1>Week holiday in China formerly called National Day. We've got

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<v Speaker 1>enough cargo still there at the major ports China to

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<v Speaker 1>profile our vessels. Next week October will be strong that

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<v Speaker 1>we might see a tapering off a little bit of

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<v Speaker 1>the cargo volume, and that's seasonal, no more, no less.

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<v Speaker 1>We're only in day one of this dock workers strike

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<v Speaker 1>on the East Coast. No impacts on the ground that

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<v Speaker 1>we see today, but the next forty eight to seventy

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<v Speaker 1>two hours will be crucial.

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<v Speaker 2>How do you expect gene dock workers on the West

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<v Speaker 2>coast in West coast ports to stand in solidarity with

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<v Speaker 2>their counterparts on the East coast. Will they refuse to

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<v Speaker 2>unload freight diverted from East coast ports.

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<v Speaker 1>We have not had any ships that are designated for

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<v Speaker 1>East or Gulf Coast ports make a left hand turn

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<v Speaker 1>and come into Los Angeles. And we're watching that very

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<v Speaker 1>closely because my experience says that that is sacrisanct between

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<v Speaker 1>these two working unions. One will not take advantage of

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<v Speaker 1>another's bargaining position and move ships around. What you have

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<v Speaker 1>seen are cargo owners that try to hedge against occurrences

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<v Speaker 1>like this and maybe put a little bit more of

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<v Speaker 1>their allocation towards West Coast ports, including Los Angeles and

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<v Speaker 1>Long Beach than otherwise would have gone to the East coast.

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<v Speaker 1>We also saw that last year as our negotiations with

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<v Speaker 1>the dock workers here with the ISLWU went a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit longer than some experts expected, and we saw some

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<v Speaker 1>of our discretionary cargo that which goes to the middle

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<v Speaker 1>part of the country move to those eastern ports.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I will point out that estimates from the National

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<v Speaker 3>Association Manufacturers show that the strike jeopardizes two point one

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<v Speaker 3>billion dollars in trade daily and the total economic damage

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<v Speaker 3>could reduce GDP by as much as five billion dollars

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<v Speaker 3>a day. So that's one statistics statistic. I should say

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<v Speaker 3>that we are certainly reporting out Geane. Having said that,

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<v Speaker 3>I think there it's fair to say that there are

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of folks may be listening who have no

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<v Speaker 3>idea what a dock worker makes, what dock worker gets

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<v Speaker 3>in terms of benefits, what a dock worker is probably

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<v Speaker 3>fighting for. What can you tell us about that front?

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<v Speaker 1>These are well paid maid six figure jobs, but it's

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<v Speaker 1>a skill set that's shared by few. The training and

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<v Speaker 1>education that goes into these folks curricula to manage these

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<v Speaker 1>big pieces of industrial equipment to move off all this

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<v Speaker 1>cargo very few and far between, and the American workforce.

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<v Speaker 1>These jobs are good for the middle class. In some cases,

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<v Speaker 1>they're generational. Port Cities like ours here in Los Angeles,

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<v Speaker 1>around the enclaves of San Pedro and Wilmington are built

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<v Speaker 1>around these dock workers and families for generations. The economic

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<v Speaker 1>landscape globally and in our shipping industry has changed dramatically

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<v Speaker 1>since COVID. The last time that this dock workers group,

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<v Speaker 1>the ISLA negotiated it was back in twenty nineteen, before

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<v Speaker 1>all these changes took place. The union is saying they

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<v Speaker 1>need to keep up with the growing economic influence of

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<v Speaker 1>the shipping lines and the profits that they've earned.

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<v Speaker 2>Ginis Carol mentioned you dealt with prolonged negotiations and delays

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<v Speaker 2>and slowdowns and the movements of goods along the West

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<v Speaker 2>Coast ports that finally resulted in a new contract that

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<v Speaker 2>was about a year ago. Given that, what would your

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<v Speaker 2>advice be to your counterparts at East Coast Ports who

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<v Speaker 2>are going through the strike right now?

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<v Speaker 1>A good question, Tim, Just keep everybody moving forward. There's

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<v Speaker 1>a lot that's always said during negotiations. You know, blood

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<v Speaker 1>pressure goes up, folks get a little bit hot under

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<v Speaker 1>the collar. But keep people at the table negotiating on

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<v Speaker 1>these salient points. In this case it's wage, automation or

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<v Speaker 1>robotics and the other work rules that are necessary. If

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<v Speaker 1>we're apart, nothing gets done. If you're at the table,

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<v Speaker 1>we could start chipping away at these issues. And the

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<v Speaker 1>ports are typically seen as the convener, and I know

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<v Speaker 1>that the White House is working diligently across several agencies

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<v Speaker 1>to make sure these talks can continue with shuttle diplomacy

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<v Speaker 1>and just keeping chipping away at these issues. But as

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<v Speaker 1>that natural and the good negotiators that they are, these

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<v Speaker 1>ports can play a pivotal role in getting to a conclusion.

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<v Speaker 3>What's the smart conversation around automation? Are our Bloomberg technology team.

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<v Speaker 3>I was listening to them earlier talk about the subject,

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<v Speaker 3>and you know, you just have the natural progression of

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<v Speaker 3>technology taking over tasks that we all used to do

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<v Speaker 3>by hand or that you needed a human to do it.

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<v Speaker 3>We know that that just continues, especially in the past

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<v Speaker 3>year and a half. We talk so much about generative AI,

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<v Speaker 3>so many different things that are changing our world that

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<v Speaker 3>now have been taken over by technology. So what is

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<v Speaker 3>the smart conversation around that? When you've got businesses that

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<v Speaker 3>are potentially publicly held companies that are thinking about costs

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<v Speaker 3>and automation perhaps saves on that aspect. What's the responsibility

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<v Speaker 3>of companies versus, you know, towards their shareholders versus perhaps

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<v Speaker 3>their workers.

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<v Speaker 1>Great question, Carolyn, It's the most polarizing conversation in our industry.

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<v Speaker 1>But two thoughts. One our belief here and lost angelus

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<v Speaker 1>is that technology is never moving faster than it is today,

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<v Speaker 1>but we cannot leave the worker behind. And secondly, when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to the automation negotiation between private sector interests

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<v Speaker 1>and unionized labor, there are very few examples. Only five

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<v Speaker 1>percent of the three hundred and sixty ports around the

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<v Speaker 1>world that are observed have some assemblance of automation or

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<v Speaker 1>robotics five percent. We're a little heavier here in southern

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<v Speaker 1>California and honestly have seen mixed results, But there are

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<v Speaker 1>examples where if we could peel back everything else, automation

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<v Speaker 1>can create additional capacity at that marine terminal and port.

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<v Speaker 1>We can also take a workforce and not have to

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<v Speaker 1>just chop it down by eighty percent as we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>in some cases. If we can keep that workforce stable,

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<v Speaker 1>double or even go beyond two x capacity at these

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<v Speaker 1>marine terminals, there may be a four Armila here that

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<v Speaker 1>helps both sides tremendously. Now we'll get into the time

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<v Speaker 1>and duration of return on investment. We'll look at the

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<v Speaker 1>types of skills that are needed, whether it needs to

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<v Speaker 1>be upskilled and reskilled for folks who have been around

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<v Speaker 1>for a while, or getting the technology training in place

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<v Speaker 1>for the next generation of worker. In my experience, it

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't have to be a zero sum game. There's a

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<v Speaker 1>skillful way to do this, and that's where I would

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<v Speaker 1>be right now in these negotiations.

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<v Speaker 3>All right, we are talking at Gin Seroka, executive director

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<v Speaker 3>of the Port of Los Angeles. I'm Carol Master along

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<v Speaker 3>with Tim Stenovek here live on Blueberg Business Week. Do

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<v Speaker 3>you want to mention a headline crossing the Israel Police

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<v Speaker 3>updating the number of dead in that Tel Aviv attack

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<v Speaker 3>to six. So we continue to get some headlines following

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<v Speaker 3>the launch of missiles ballistic missiles by Ron, but there

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<v Speaker 3>was also another direct attack in the area in Tel Aviv,

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<v Speaker 3>so we're starting to get some more details about some

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<v Speaker 3>of the casualties in that.

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<v Speaker 2>And yeah, that shooting, Yeah that was a shooting. Yeah, Gene,

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<v Speaker 2>I want to go back to Gene Soroca joining us

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<v Speaker 2>from a Los Angeles Gene economists are still trying to

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<v Speaker 2>figure out how much damage to a supply chain this

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<v Speaker 2>would do, what the economic cost would be. Estimates range

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<v Speaker 2>from a billion dollars to five billion dollars a day,

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<v Speaker 2>and delayed or lost activity as a result of this strike.

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<v Speaker 2>As a result of these strikes, given your perch, given

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<v Speaker 2>where you are, I'm wondering how long you think this

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<v Speaker 2>strike will go on?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, Tim, that's an estimate of the average amount of

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<v Speaker 1>cargo value that goes through these ports on a daily basis.

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<v Speaker 1>Not all of it is perishable in the most clear sense.

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<v Speaker 1>If this strike is very short, couple three days, there's

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<v Speaker 1>the ability to catch up on getting this commerce out

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<v Speaker 1>to the interior of the country, to the consumer bases

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<v Speaker 1>across the Eastern Seaboard very quickly. It's when it becomes

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<v Speaker 1>a lot longer than just these several days that if

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<v Speaker 1>it turns into weeks, we'll have a very different discussion

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<v Speaker 1>right here on this show. The other piece to this

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<v Speaker 1>is that this strike will impact someone somewhere guaranteed. So

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<v Speaker 1>whether it truly is a fruit or vegetable that's coming

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<v Speaker 1>up from Central America, or it's a specific product that

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<v Speaker 1>has to be sold by a particular date that may

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<v Speaker 1>go away forever, and it's the stock out for the retailer.

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<v Speaker 1>It's the order that an individual put in that may

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<v Speaker 1>not make it in time for their consumer. That's what

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<v Speaker 1>goes away as well, but it's just not a flat

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<v Speaker 1>number of five billion dollars a day that will be

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<v Speaker 1>eliminated from the United States economy if we can get

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<v Speaker 1>these sides to reach agreement in a decent amount of time.

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<v Speaker 1>And I would say that putting up pickets across fourteen

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<v Speaker 1>major ports will motivate some more than ever to get

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<v Speaker 1>to the table.

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<v Speaker 3>So I want to just go back to wages, and

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<v Speaker 3>just got thirty seconds here. My understanding is the most

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<v Speaker 3>recent offer from the United States Maritime Alliance was for

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<v Speaker 3>a fifty percent fifty five zero wage increase the workers wanted.

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<v Speaker 3>I think more like sixty eight percent. For forgive me

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<v Speaker 3>if I've got that number wrong. It sounds like a lot,

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<v Speaker 3>and I think if somebody hears that, it sounds like

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<v Speaker 3>a lot. In just thirty seconds, is it that their

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<v Speaker 3>pay was so low or is that a pretty aggressive request?

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<v Speaker 3>And just quickly if you could.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the pay was a little bit low in

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<v Speaker 1>keeping up with the gigantic income level jumps that you've

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<v Speaker 1>seen in the shipping industry. This is an affordable quotient,

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<v Speaker 1>but there are details that have to be resolved.

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<v Speaker 3>All right, so appreciate it all the time. You've given

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<v Speaker 3>us on this Tuesday, Jean Soroka, thank you so much.

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<v Speaker 3>Gene is executive director at the Port of Los Angeles,

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<v Speaker 3>joining us again from the West Coast LA, specifically