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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. It's on target. Heyo,

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Speaker 1: we're that further ado.

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Speaker 2: That's what the game's all about. All of a sudden,

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Speaker 2: you feel like you can't miss.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna leave it up there.

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Speaker 2: Couldn't make that. If you try that again, absolutely.

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Speaker 1: Try to.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast NBA edition for our

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Speaker 3: Friday our Western Conference first Round playoff series preview. On Wednesday,

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Speaker 3: we brought you the Eastern Conference. We're back on Friday

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Speaker 3: with the Western Conference. Rockeen, Palmer, Brandon Anderson joining me

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Speaker 3: as always, gents, my first question, do you have any

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Speaker 3: reactions to the Pacers completely getting just mollywopped by the

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Speaker 3: Washington Wizards last night? And do you have any thoughts

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Speaker 3: on Sixers Wizard writing.

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Speaker 4: The only thought I can give you is that apparently

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Speaker 4: home court advantage in the NBA playing game is worth

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Speaker 4: twenty points, so it's it's there's nothing else to comment on.

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Speaker 1: And then the Sixers windows. I think the Sixers.

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Speaker 4: I've come along to the Sixers probably when that series

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Speaker 4: and four or five, maybe maybe the Wizards get one

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Speaker 4: in a game where you know, Bill goes off. But

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Speaker 4: besides that, these two teams aren't very good.

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Speaker 2: At all.

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Speaker 5: So right, yeah, my thoughts are thank you to the

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Speaker 5: Pacers for letting me get some other work done last night.

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Speaker 5: Got a little work prepared for the weekend. And the

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Speaker 5: Sixers and three.

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Speaker 3: Hey, I haven'tdug into it. I have to take a

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Speaker 3: look at it. I'm not I'm not quite as like

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Speaker 3: I forget about it. I I just don't trust the

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Speaker 3: st I don't think the Sixers are worth trusting that much.

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Speaker 3: So it's probable that they'll take business. But I'll have

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Speaker 3: to look at it later today. However, we're talking about

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Speaker 3: the Western Conference, so your objective has given me two

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Speaker 3: angles on how to bet each series. We will start

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Speaker 3: with the number three seed versus the number six the

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Speaker 3: Portland Trailblazers at the Denver Nuggets in this series, gentlemen,

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Speaker 3: this has been a weird one to look at the line.

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Speaker 3: So the first lines I saw were Nuggets minus one

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Speaker 3: fifteen Blazers minus one oh five. It's now moved to

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Speaker 3: Nuggets plus one hundred Blazers minus one twenty at bet MGM,

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Speaker 3: the official odds provider of the Action Network podcast, So

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Speaker 3: the Blazers are now a more substantial favorite in this

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Speaker 3: You can get the Nuggets at plus money despite being

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Speaker 3: the higher seed. I took the Blazers at minus one

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Speaker 3: oh five early. I grabbed them. My two angles for

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Speaker 3: this series are pretty simple firepower. So the Blazers have

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Speaker 3: Damian Yes, but also CJ. McCollum, who is huge in

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Speaker 3: the twenty nineteen series, and Norman Powell who can create

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Speaker 3: off ball. They also have more weaponry in terms of shooting.

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Speaker 3: The Nuggets defense has been a lot better over the

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Speaker 3: last you know, sixty days, really since going back before

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Speaker 3: the Murray injury, but especially after the Murray injury, they've

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Speaker 3: been really good. But the Blazers have a lot more firepower.

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Speaker 3: I feel like the Nuggets are going to have to

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Speaker 3: score at least one fifteen per game in order to

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Speaker 3: keep track and keep up with what the Blazers are

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Speaker 3: going to bring to the table. I do not think

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Speaker 3: that they can do that without Jamal Murray. Will Barton

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Speaker 3: is going to return sometime in this first round series,

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Speaker 3: but he's not going to be one hundred percent. If PJ.

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Speaker 3: Doser comes back in this series, that actually might literally

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Speaker 3: tilt it like that. Just getting another ball handler that

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Speaker 3: can actually shoot might be enough to get the Nuggets

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Speaker 3: past them. I don't think this Blazer's team is all

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Speaker 3: that good, despite how well they've played over the last

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Speaker 3: month or so. I think that that can sometimes be

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Speaker 3: fools gold. But without Murray. Even with how well I

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Speaker 3: expect Jokic to play, the Blazers will make Aaron Gordon

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Speaker 3: beat them. They'll make fuck With Kamposo beat them. They'll

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Speaker 3: make anybody except MPJ and Yokic beat them, and those

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Speaker 3: two guys will probably still go off, but I don't

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Speaker 3: think they'll have enough scoring to get past them. I

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Speaker 3: like the Blazers on the money line.

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Speaker 2: For the series.

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Speaker 3: I will say the ideas of like I don't like

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Speaker 3: any of the over under game props, and the reason

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Speaker 3: I don't like that is pretty simple. The Nuggets, in

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Speaker 3: four of the five series that they've played, have gone

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Speaker 3: to seven games. This team is tough as fucking nails.

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Speaker 3: Like they are tough, they are hard to get rid of,

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Speaker 3: and especially look at a Portland team that is not

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Speaker 3: built the same way they are not built for these

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Speaker 3: like really big moments. I do not trust the Blazers

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Speaker 3: to handle the Nuggets in five or six. I think

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Speaker 3: if this goes it goes seven, and at that point,

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Speaker 3: you know we'll see where the where the numbers for

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Speaker 3: the Nuggets and where the series is at. But I

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Speaker 3: do think the series goes long, and I think the

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Speaker 3: Blazers win. Rahem, let's start with you.

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Speaker 4: I'm on, I'm in a totally same page like I

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Speaker 4: like the Blazers as well. Basically we're in the guards

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Speaker 4: league right now. I mean, I think you talk about

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Speaker 4: it all the time that you got to have a

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Speaker 4: shot creator. As great as Jokic is, he he doesn't

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Speaker 4: have the guards on his team to really, you know,

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Speaker 4: create the shots for people like Jamal Murray was the

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Speaker 4: guy making big shots down the stretch. They don't have that.

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Speaker 4: The Blazers have three of those guys, and more importantly,

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Speaker 4: I don't think Composo can guard any of these guys.

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Speaker 4: I mean, the Nuggets are twenty fourth and opponent three

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Speaker 4: point shooting shooting frequency, giving up thirty eight percent of

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Speaker 4: opponent attempts from three. The Blazers are launching threes that

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Speaker 4: will almost forty one percent of their attempts come from

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Speaker 4: behind the arc. So I think this is a series

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Speaker 4: with a lot of variants where you know the Blazers

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Speaker 4: are gonna make They're gonna have games where they're scoring one, thirty, one, twenty,

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Speaker 4: and they're gonna have games where they're not making them.

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Speaker 4: I think this is the Blazers win this series. It's

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Speaker 4: a long series, they win it in seven. They just

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Speaker 4: have the firepower that I don't think the Nuggets have

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Speaker 4: at this point.

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Speaker 2: Brandon.

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Speaker 5: So I basically agree with everything you both just said,

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Speaker 5: with one exception. I'm in on the Blazers. I surprised

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Speaker 5: myself by that. I literally was talking to Rahim earlier

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Speaker 5: this week, like, man, this sucks. I don't want this

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Speaker 5: series again. We've seen this. I don't need to see

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Speaker 5: these teams play again. I think it's gonna be a

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Speaker 5: fun series. I don't know even argue with that. We're

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Speaker 5: gonna get a ton of points. We're gonna get a

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Speaker 5: lot of offense and not a lot of defense around.

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Speaker 5: I was surprised how strongly the Blazer's profile when I

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Speaker 5: looked at them. I'm really trying to look at each

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Speaker 5: team for what is the version we're going to get

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Speaker 5: in the playoffs, not what have we had for these

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Speaker 5: seventy two games so far, which dah, But I think

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Speaker 5: this year of all years, that matters more than ever,

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Speaker 5: and we missed CJ McCollum for twenty five games, We

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Speaker 5: missed Nurkic for thirty five games. They didn't have Norm

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Speaker 5: until the last like twenty games or whatever that was.

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Speaker 5: There were still the number two offense in the entire league.

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Speaker 5: And that's like with this offensive explosion that's behind only

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Speaker 5: the Mega death nets and in all their talent that

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Speaker 5: they have, and I just I think it underestimated how

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Speaker 5: good this offense is. I think Norman Powell having that

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Speaker 5: third shooter handler creator out there, I think gives them

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Speaker 5: an extra dimension they haven't had in the past years.

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Speaker 5: The Blazers' regular season numbers have Ennis Kanter and Cremel

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Speaker 5: Anthony as the third and fourth leading minutes on the team.

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Speaker 5: We know that that's not going to be the case

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Speaker 5: in the playoffs. We know they're going to get shoved

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Speaker 5: way down in minutes and those minutes are going to

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Speaker 5: turn into CJ and the Nurkic into Norm. And yeah,

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Speaker 5: I just I agree with when you said Matt firepower.

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Speaker 5: I just can't see the Nuggets having the fire power

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Speaker 5: hang tough. The only place I disagree is thus, I

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Speaker 5: love when I look at a playoff series and I

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Speaker 5: like the underdog, or that is to say it that

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Speaker 5: I like the seed underdog the road team because there's

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Speaker 5: a huge inefficiency. I think when you're looking at series

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Speaker 5: bet and number of games the home team wins like

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Speaker 5: eighty percent of game sevens. I don't want to bet

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Speaker 5: on Portland going to Denver, where there's an elevation advantage,

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Speaker 5: where there's a home court advantage, where we've seen the

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Speaker 5: Nuggets of all teams win these game sevens. I don't

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Speaker 5: want to bet on Portland in a Game seven. I

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Speaker 5: do think it's a long series. I love Portland and six.

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Speaker 5: We know how good they are at home. We know

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Speaker 5: that the road team getting that Game six stuck in

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Speaker 5: there like the pressure of being able to finish that off.

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Speaker 5: Portland and six can get up plus four to ten,

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Speaker 5: and to me, when you're looking at okay, Blazers are

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Speaker 5: roughly even monies, so I can get my odds quadrupled

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Speaker 5: that they if they do win the series, win it

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Speaker 5: in six at home, not finishing early, which I don't

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Speaker 5: think any of us expect them to, and not having

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Speaker 5: to take that tough Game seven.

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Speaker 2: So that's that's my main angle.

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Speaker 5: I really like the Blazers here I also think that

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Speaker 5: we're maybe underestimating.

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Speaker 2: Well.

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Speaker 5: I think the Blazers have a shot at the Western

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Speaker 5: Conference Finals. That will tie more to what I think

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Speaker 5: about the Lakers and the Suns. I don't think they're

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Speaker 5: a great shot, but there's plus seven hundred right now,

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Speaker 5: which would imply something like twelve percent. I think they're

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Speaker 5: more like twenty to twenty five percent. I think there's

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Speaker 5: a little bit of value there if these pieces all

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Speaker 5: come together like they can. I just think that quadrant

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Speaker 5: in particular feels like you could shake up the teams.

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Speaker 2: And any outcome could happen.

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Speaker 4: Oh, you think the Blazers are gonna beat the winner

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Speaker 4: of the Sun's Lakers.

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Speaker 5: I don't think they're going to beat them. I think

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Speaker 5: they can beat them. I'm getting plus seven hundred. I'm

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Speaker 5: not taking them straight up. I think that they can

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Speaker 5: beat them. I we'll talk about the Suns and Lakers.

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Speaker 5: I think both of those teams are overrated profiles from

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Speaker 5: what we.

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Speaker 2: Think right now.

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Speaker 3: Okay, hang on, what do you think is the chance

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Speaker 3: that they beat them?

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Speaker 5: I said twenty Well, I think twenty to twenty five

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Speaker 5: percent chance that the Blazers make the Western Conference Finals.

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Speaker 3: You'd NEI there's a twenty percent chance that they beat

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Speaker 3: they beat the Lakers or Suns.

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Speaker 5: No, that means a higher percent chance because I'm factoring

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Speaker 5: in that they have to win the first round.

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Speaker 3: Two, what are they to take Let's say that they

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Speaker 3: do win the series. What are the odds that you

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Speaker 3: what do you what would you give the odds that

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Speaker 3: they win that.

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Speaker 2: Series, that they win in the second round? Yes, I

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Speaker 2: don't know.

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Speaker 5: I probably would say like thirty five to forty. I

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Speaker 5: think that the offensive firepower is going to give them

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Speaker 5: a shot. And we know that Dame is not going away.

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Speaker 3: And you are aware that this was like if you're

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Speaker 3: gonna if you're gonna spout the season long offensive numbers,

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Speaker 3: you are aware this was the second worst defense in

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Speaker 3: the league.

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Speaker 5: Yes, absolutely, they're gonna have to win a shootout in

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Speaker 5: every single game. But I either the Suns to me

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Speaker 5: are well, I'm gonna get back to the Suns, we

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Speaker 5: get to their part of their preview. I just feel

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Speaker 5: like that they're they're typically they look like a team

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Speaker 5: that has probably performed at their ceiling already.

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Speaker 2: By by what that they've done.

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Speaker 5: And the Lakers are the opposite of the Blazers and

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Speaker 5: that like, I know what I'm getting from defense, and

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Speaker 5: I don't know if I trust enough on offense, and

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Speaker 5: I don't still trust Lebron and Davis and what we

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Speaker 5: just saw the other night. Look, I don't think the

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Speaker 5: Blakers are gonna make the Western Blazer are gonna make

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Speaker 5: the Western Conference finals. I just think that doing it

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Speaker 5: and losing there, which they would.

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Speaker 3: You saw that plus seven and you can't resist yourself

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Speaker 3: because you love these bets that are that are better

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Speaker 3: than plus six.

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Speaker 1: You're you're always looking for.

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Speaker 2: This is so wow to me.

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean I think I think here's one thing.

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Speaker 3: This is a really hard this is a difficult season

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Speaker 3: to analyze. So the data, Brandon says over and over

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Speaker 3: and over again, do not trust the last twenty games

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Speaker 3: of the season. That the most the highest correlation to

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Speaker 3: playoff success is the first twenty games and the middle

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Speaker 3: twenty games of the season, like in January ish on

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Speaker 3: a normal year, right, which would be like I guess

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Speaker 3: February March is this season, that's like the that's when

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Speaker 3: you can actually trust the correlation that the last fifteen,

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Speaker 3: ten to twenty games have a very low correlation. The

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Speaker 3: playoff success, and there's a lot of reasons for that.

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Speaker 3: If you're facing tanking teams, you're gonna look good. If

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Speaker 3: you're facing resting teams, you're gonna look good. The Suns

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Speaker 3: played the Lakers without the Stars, like this all factors

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Speaker 3: into how they look. The other thing is if you're

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Speaker 3: gonna look at like their offense, uh the last fifteen games. No,

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Speaker 3: and this is actually for the season. Inis Canter, Carmel Anthony,

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Speaker 3: and anthrety Simons have a one thirty four offensive rating.

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Speaker 3: Do we think that that's a lineup you want to

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Speaker 3: play in a playoff series? No? But the problem is,

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Speaker 3: like that factors into the whole offensive rating profile. I

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Speaker 3: only disagree. I can't blame you for taking four to two,

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Speaker 3: Like if you get past the misteak of the Nuggets

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Speaker 3: in terms of get taken series to seven, I get it.

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Speaker 3: That's fine. I think that's a decent angle. I don't

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Speaker 3: one thing I have. I am kind of off of

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Speaker 3: taking individual series numbers, UH to finish x like four

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Speaker 3: to two. There's too many swing games where it's like

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Speaker 3: this series should have gone six. But one team like

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Speaker 3: Laker's Nuggets last year is a good example.

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Speaker 2: Of that.

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Speaker 3: So like I bet Lakers and six Anthony Davis misses

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Speaker 3: that three pointer and I cash, Like I absolutely cash there,

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Speaker 3: But he didn't he missed. He made it right, Like

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Speaker 3: he makes that one, and so I think that they're

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Speaker 3: trying to split that one is a little too narrow.

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Speaker 3: I think I'll just say is like this Partland team,

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Speaker 3: I don't think you're insane for thinking that they can

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Speaker 3: make the Western Conference Finals. I'll say that, like, I

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Speaker 3: don't think you're insane for that.

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Speaker 1: I think he's insane.

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Speaker 3: I know you do. But like this is the model,

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Speaker 3: which we'll talk about in the next series. Like the

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Speaker 3: model is basically the Sun's pulled the up upset on

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Speaker 3: a Lakers team that's beat the hell and then the

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Speaker 3: Blazers get by a Sun scene that you can see

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Speaker 3: that is a little bit more mortal, you know, like

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Speaker 3: they get Here's kind of the thing. All of the

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Speaker 3: Blazers playoff success all of that. I'm not trying to

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Speaker 3: be a hater here really not. Like I love Portland.

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Speaker 3: I think it's a great market. Dame is the best

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Speaker 3: leader in the NBA. I love see you and call him,

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Speaker 3: But like this is the reality with the Blazers. All

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Speaker 3: of their success has been based on fortune, all of it.

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Speaker 3: They made the Western Conference Finals. How do they make

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Speaker 3: the Western Conference Finals two years ago? The Thunder never

291
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Speaker 3: ever blitzed Dame, not once did they actually put pressure

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Speaker 3: on him. It was the dumbest defensive adjustment I've ever seen.

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Speaker 3: They faced a Nuggets team in the second round with

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Speaker 3: Will Barton and Gary Harris clearly not one hundred percent

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Speaker 3: in their first playoff run ever with this core, and

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Speaker 3: they just didn't know how to handle it. And in

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Speaker 3: Game seven the Blazers still had to get Evan Turner

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Speaker 3: and Meyers Leonard big games. Then they faced the Warriors

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Speaker 3: in the Conference finals shorthanded, and they still get smacked.

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Speaker 3: When they made it out a couple of years ago

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Speaker 3: versus the Clippers, the Clippers got hurt. Everybody got hurt

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Speaker 3: in that series. Like every time the Blazers have made

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Speaker 3: a run, it's because of bad fortune for the other team.

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Speaker 3: But look at this year, Like the Nuggets have had

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Speaker 3: bad fortune, the Lakers have had bad fortune. So like,

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Speaker 3: I don't think he's crazy. I'm not going with him,

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Speaker 3: but I don't think he's crazy.

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Speaker 2: On this right, I just I'll just add I agree.

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Speaker 5: I agree that how the Blazers have become this tough

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Speaker 5: playoff team has been because they're good, but more because

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Speaker 5: they've had the right path. I think, though, that it's

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Speaker 5: too easy for us to just pigeonhole, Oh the Blazers.

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Speaker 2: We know the Blazers, Damon CJ. We know what they are.

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Speaker 5: CJ has been much better this year and really good

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Speaker 5: in the playoffs in the past.

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Speaker 2: And this is not the old Blazers teams.

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Speaker 5: Robert Covington doesn't fix everything, but he is a better

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Speaker 5: option than what they've had in the past. I mean,

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Speaker 5: you just brought up you just brought up Evan Turner

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Speaker 5: and Myers Leonard. We've got Nurkic looking kind of finally

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Speaker 5: mostly healthy, Covington, Norm Powell like, there are good players here.

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Speaker 5: That's a really good quality five to put out there. Again,

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Speaker 5: I'm not picking the Blazers to make the Western Conference finals.

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Speaker 5: I just think if you're giving me a one out

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Speaker 5: of eight chance, and all three of us agree that

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Speaker 5: they're winning this round, then that's only one series away.

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Speaker 5: And I just I think that the playoffs are not

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Speaker 5: as binary as we want them to be. And my

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Speaker 5: basic Western premise is that I think this conference is

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Speaker 5: wide open and that a lot of things can happen.

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Speaker 5: You could talk me into you could show me. You

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Speaker 5: could tell me that any team from that Blazers quadrant

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00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:43,760
Speaker 5: could make the Western Conference finals, and I would be like, Okay, yeah,

334
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Speaker 5: I can see how that path happened for them. Damian

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Speaker 5: Lillard is the best guard in that quadrant. He's going

336
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Speaker 5: to be the best guard by far in this series,

337
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Speaker 5: and he would be the best guard in the next

338
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Speaker 5: series because Lebron James is not a guard and they've.

339
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Speaker 2: Got the best backcoard where he just said, it's a guard.

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Speaker 5: To ly Dame and CJ give a chance and the

341
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Speaker 5: rest of the roster is good enough to give a

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Speaker 5: chance better than one and eight chance, rightim.

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Speaker 3: How many times in our slack does he moan about

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Speaker 3: the Lakers and how they're gonna win every single title

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Speaker 3: and then he says it's wide open? How many times

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Speaker 3: in our slack does he drop that?

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Speaker 1: At least once a day?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, once a day.

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Speaker 6: Now back to the show.

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Speaker 3: Let's move on. We gotta keep this rolling here, So

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00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:52,919
Speaker 3: let's go to the next series. Uh, and let us

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Speaker 3: journey to the winner of the most epic play in

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00:19:56,960 --> 00:20:02,879
Speaker 3: game of all time, the La Lake at the Phoenix Suns.

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00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:06,160
Speaker 3: So uh. In the series, Suns are plus one twenty

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00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:09,480
Speaker 3: five Lakers minus one fifty. This opened at William Hill

385
00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:14,760
Speaker 3: at a drastically different number of Lakers minus three hundred Suns.

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Speaker 3: What I have to look at because I got it.

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00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:18,600
Speaker 3: I bet the Suns because I was just like, that's

388
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,359
Speaker 3: too good of a number. It was plus two hundred

389
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:26,840
Speaker 3: better on Wednesday night. So like just the there was

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00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:29,760
Speaker 3: such an expectation of the Lakers that they actually overshot

391
00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 3: and had to peel back the other direction. So you've

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Speaker 3: got Suns plus one twenty five, Lakers mius one fifty

393
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:40,240
Speaker 3: on bet MGM Lakers four to two is plus three fifty.

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Speaker 3: That's the most likely outcome in the series. The series spread,

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Speaker 3: Lakers mius two and a half is plus three seventy five,

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00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,600
Speaker 3: Lakers Mius one and a half is plus one thirty.

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00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:58,120
Speaker 3: So that's that's where that one's at. Brandon, let's start

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Speaker 3: with you. Now, what do you in the series?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, So when that line first came out and the

400
00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:09,359
Speaker 5: Lakers were minus three hundred, I was like, are you

401
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,639
Speaker 5: kidding me? That's so disrespectful to the two seed that

402
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,800
Speaker 5: we just watched have this great season. And I was

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Speaker 5: all prepared to be like, all right, well, Lebron or not,

404
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:21,359
Speaker 5: I gotta take the Suns. If you're giving me that price,

405
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:23,720
Speaker 5: I have to do it. I didn't do it. And

406
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,119
Speaker 5: then when I looked at the prices last night to

407
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:29,199
Speaker 5: prepare for the day, the price is gone, and so

408
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:32,200
Speaker 5: is the value on the Sun's series. Like there's still

409
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 5: an underdog, but it's like one twenty five, one thirty

410
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 5: five at books, And so you're giving me like a

411
00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:42,199
Speaker 5: slightly weighted coin to bet against Lebron after everything that

412
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 5: we've seen in the like the last time that Lebron

413
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,480
Speaker 5: James was in the playoffs and didn't make the finals,

414
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Speaker 5: it involved Kobe Bryant and who was twenty ten, Kevin Garnett,

415
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Speaker 5: Dwight Howard. I don't know like a lot of players

416
00:21:57,320 --> 00:22:00,960
Speaker 5: that aren't doing things anymore. I realized, like literally four

417
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 5: minutes ago, I just said, and trust the Lakers. I

418
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:08,159
Speaker 5: don't trust the Lakers, but I don't think that the

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00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:12,600
Speaker 5: Sun's team has like a different gear to get to.

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Speaker 2: So I think that the Lakers are vulnerable.

421
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:22,399
Speaker 5: I as an NBA fan, I'm going to show up

422
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 5: in a slack every day and complain about how everything

423
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 5: is inevitable, the world is awful, Lebron's gonna win again,

424
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 5: because that's the only thing my fandom knows how to do.

425
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:37,560
Speaker 5: As a better I think that the Lakers are vulnerable

426
00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 5: and it's just going to take the right matchup. I

427
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,199
Speaker 5: just don't think that this is the matchup for that

428
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,960
Speaker 5: the Lakers. As I'm looking at the team in only

429
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:51,600
Speaker 5: some ways, obviously, they remind me of the two thousand

430
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:57,440
Speaker 5: and five Pistons defending champions who had a very strong defense,

431
00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:01,360
Speaker 5: but not the same quite elite defense, but a really

432
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 5: good defense. The Lakers have been number one all season

433
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 5: nine to know they're gonna even be better with Lebron

434
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 5: and Davis back out there. The Pistons, that two thousand

435
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,360
Speaker 5: and five team made it to Game seven of the finals,

436
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 5: like they came that close to defending their title, but

437
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:18,120
Speaker 5: that team also only had to face the Miami Heat,

438
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 5: was like the only good team in the entire conference,

439
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 5: and they got Dwayne Wade injured in the Eastern Conference

440
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 5: finals and those like the worst finals of my lifetime,

441
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,919
Speaker 5: So they're not that they have Lebron at the end

442
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,680
Speaker 5: of the day. For the Lakers to win the title

443
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:37,400
Speaker 5: last year, we had to get playoff Lebron, which I'm

444
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:39,880
Speaker 5: not betting against anymore. But we also had to get

445
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 5: a different playoff version of Anthony Davis that we haven't

446
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:47,200
Speaker 5: seen often or for extended periods or hitting like eighty

447
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 5: five percent of his jumpers or whatever that was. They

448
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 5: also had to get playoff Rondo, and Rondo's not there,

449
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:54,719
Speaker 5: and I don't know who the third guy is that

450
00:23:54,800 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 5: makes a serious step up like that in this matter,

451
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 5: I have to take the Lakers because I just I

452
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 5: can't get excited about the Suns. They were remarkably healthy

453
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:10,159
Speaker 5: all year. Given all the rest of the teams in

454
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,719
Speaker 5: the league, I just feel like they're a team that

455
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:17,920
Speaker 5: is good, very good, good enough until someone beats them.

456
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:22,120
Speaker 5: And right now, Lebron and Davis appear to be healthy.

457
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:25,919
Speaker 5: And if you're giving me near a coin flip, I

458
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:27,639
Speaker 5: have to go with that. So my angles that I

459
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 5: play on this Lakers minus one point five in the

460
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:34,199
Speaker 5: series is plus one thirty. So all that means is

461
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 5: the Lakers win the series and not in seven. I

462
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,120
Speaker 5: don't feel like they would need to go to seven

463
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 5: games on this Of all the teams that I do

464
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,120
Speaker 5: feel confident could win on the road in the game

465
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:46,920
Speaker 5: six or whatever, it's Lebron That doesn't phaze me at all.

466
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:49,639
Speaker 5: The one I really like is Lakers to go up

467
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 5: two to one in the series, which is at plus

468
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 5: one forty two. I feel like this just sets up

469
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 5: as like, Okay, Lebron and Davis, they got in the

470
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 5: play in, they know that they're seven seed. All you

471
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 5: have to do to change all that is just when

472
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 5: one of the first two road games just win one.

473
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:08,160
Speaker 5: Wind Horris had that stat that he spouted after every

474
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 5: single playoff series for years that Lebron had won a

475
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:14,119
Speaker 5: road playoff game in like thirty nine series in a.

476
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,720
Speaker 2: Row or something. I think that that's over now.

477
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 5: But all you gotta do is win one of those

478
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,879
Speaker 5: first two, come home, go up to one. Only the

479
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,399
Speaker 5: Sons are coming back from that, so I think the

480
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,399
Speaker 5: Lakers take it. I don't love either one of these teams,

481
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 5: but this is the series that we have.

482
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:34,720
Speaker 3: So he thinks the Lakers are vulnerable Rahiem and he

483
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 3: doesn't trust them versus the Suns, but he likes the Blazers.

484
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 3: This is the I know the numbers. I get that

485
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 3: you're you're playing the numbers, Brandon, I get it, I

486
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,679
Speaker 3: get it. It's just like I do think that sometimes

487
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 3: all over with me. I do think that sometimes, like

488
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:53,600
Speaker 3: with the betting, when we start to look at the

489
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 3: at the implied probability, we start to talk ourselves into

490
00:25:56,400 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 3: like this has value, right, versus like yeah, yeah, that

491
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 3: like they're having values different than like I'm gonna bet it.

492
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:08,719
Speaker 3: That's like that. I think there's a separation there. Rahim.

493
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 3: Are you in the same place in terms of the

494
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,400
Speaker 3: Sons are gonna handle business or the Lakers are gonna

495
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 3: handle business here.

496
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, without a doubt. I mean, this Sun's defense

497
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:19,200
Speaker 4: is really falling off of a cliff. They're twenty fifth

498
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 4: of differensive rate and over the last two weeks given

499
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 4: up one hundred nineteen points per ho ones possessions. Like

500
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 4: this team, over the first half of the season, they

501
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 4: were top five offense and top five defense, and they

502
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 4: I think they were really playing over above their head.

503
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:33,840
Speaker 1: And now we're seeing what they truly are.

504
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:37,399
Speaker 4: And this big Lakers team is gonna be able to

505
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 4: dominate in the paint. I mean the Suns right now,

506
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 4: they're giving up sixty five percent at the rim, their

507
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 4: twenty fourth in opponent field goal percentage at the rim.

508
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 4: I think Anthony Davis and Lebron James they eat all day. Also,

509
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:52,640
Speaker 4: I mean, I think one of the big things is

510
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 4: outside of Chris Paul and Jay Crowder and you know,

511
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 4: maybe Dario Sorry, this team doesn't have a lot of

512
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 4: playoff experience. We've seen Devin Booker struggle, you know, recently.

513
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:05,959
Speaker 4: We don't know how he's gonna perform in the playoffs.

514
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:09,199
Speaker 4: This Lakers team is a big team. You know they

515
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 4: can slow guards down. We've seen them slow Damian Lillard

516
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 4: down last year in the playoffs. This defense has it's

517
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:18,920
Speaker 4: skipped the beat with or without Lebron James and Anthony Davis.

518
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:22,679
Speaker 4: Everybody's healthy. I just don't see how this is a

519
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 4: young team, and I think people forget that. So I'm

520
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:29,680
Speaker 4: gonna lay it with the Lakers. But what I really

521
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 4: want to do is I can see the Lakers dropping

522
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 4: this first game, and then I can come back and

523
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 4: get the Lakers at are even better price. But I

524
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 4: think minus one fifty for the Lakers is a little

525
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 4: bit of a bargain.

526
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 3: Now.

527
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:47,919
Speaker 4: I think, you know, William Hill jumped the gun because

528
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:50,440
Speaker 4: a lot of times you have the offshore books, which

529
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 4: normally shut they normally control the market. For whatever reason,

530
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:57,919
Speaker 4: they decided to put out their line first before some

531
00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:01,639
Speaker 4: of the bigger offshore books, and when the offshore books

532
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:04,919
Speaker 4: came out, I think William Hill recognized that they made

533
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 4: a mistake. But I mean, at one point fifty, it's

534
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 4: probably a little too low.

535
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:16,920
Speaker 3: So I guess my question on that Raim is if

536
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 3: you would you rather wait to see what the Lakers

537
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 3: series price goes to after game one, or bet Suns

538
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:28,680
Speaker 3: to win Game one and Lakers to win the series

539
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 3: of plus two to fifty.

540
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:35,199
Speaker 4: I'd rather wait because then I kind of locked myself

541
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 4: into a position.

542
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 2: And for me.

543
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 4: At least, if I wait and I sit there and

544
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 4: I watch the game and the Suns are in a

545
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:46,719
Speaker 4: good place, I could say, you know what, I can

546
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 4: reevaluate after the game. Or I could live bet the Lakers,

547
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 4: Like how many times do we You always get good

548
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:55,280
Speaker 4: value live betting the Lakers when they're down. They were

549
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 4: down fourteen to fifteen points at halftime against the Warriors

550
00:28:58,800 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 4: and getting plus one seventy.

551
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm pretty sure if books got pounded with that,

552
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:04,240
Speaker 1: So I don't.

553
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 4: I don't want to lock myself into a position where

554
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 4: I say the Sons are gonna win unless I truly

555
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 4: believe that the Sons are gonna win, and I could.

556
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:15,760
Speaker 1: In that case, I'm just gonna bet the Suns my money.

557
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 3: A going theme of this first round is that the

558
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 3: numbers are just too sharp. Like that's one thing I've

559
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 3: definitely noticed year over years, Like last year, I thought

560
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:27,200
Speaker 3: there was a lot of value. Yeah, series by series,

561
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 3: round by round, like I could find spots where I

562
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 3: was really excited. Like here's a good example of this.

563
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 3: Let's say you want Lakers and six, which is a

564
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 3: pretty decent one, right, Like the Sons are a really

565
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 3: good team, Like they're a really good team. But if

566
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 3: you want to grab Sons plus two and a half,

567
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 3: you're at minus five hundred at that MGM, I have

568
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 3: to lay five to one for the Suns to win

569
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 3: two games. Meanwhile, it's like, if I want to go

570
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:00,120
Speaker 3: like this is probably the one that I'm gonna to

571
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 3: be on is Lakers minus one and a half plus

572
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 3: one thirty, Right, I get plus number for them to

573
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 3: win in five or six. That's I've got a good

574
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:16,080
Speaker 3: variance there that that I will probably just hedge that

575
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 3: against the Sun's series bet that I took because I

576
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 3: had to get the I had to get that number.

577
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 3: Like I'll say this like I don't feel you know,

578
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 3: I just said, like sometimes you can you can look

579
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 3: at the number and not and not think about whether

580
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 3: you want to bet it, Like I do want to

581
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 3: bet it because like one of my issues is okay,

582
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 3: one rahiem. Let's go back to the defense, Right, So

583
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 3: the defense fell off a clip of the Suns. Why

584
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 3: do we think the Sun's defense fell off, Like, did

585
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 3: they just it was there an injury? No? Did they

586
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 3: just forget how to defend? No, Like that's not a thing,

587
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 3: right Versus if you look at it, their schedule was

588
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 3: just like brutal okay and constantly going, and you could

589
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:56,720
Speaker 3: tell that they were in a little bit of a

590
00:30:56,760 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 3: coast mode. Also, Manie Williams kept play Frank Kaminsky, which

591
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 3: is certainly a choice, and if he does that in

592
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 3: the series, he's gonna lose. Like I like Frank Kaminski.

593
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 3: I think he's like he's worked really hard to be

594
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 3: a viable rotation player. You cannot play him in a

595
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 3: playoff series. I cannot stress this enough. If Monnie Williams

596
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 3: throws him out there in Game one, I'm live betting

597
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 3: the Lakers. I don't care if they're up fifty, like

598
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 3: I would just bet the Lakers live. I don't hate

599
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 3: the matchup right, Like the Lakers. Whole thing is physicality, Like, oh,

600
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 3: we've got all these athletes, We've got these big guys,

601
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 3: We've got all this athleticism and strength, all right, Well,

602
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 3: the Sons are coming in there with Chris Paul, who's

603
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 3: tough as nails. They got Jay Crowder, they got DeAndre Ayden,

604
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 3: they do have Kaminski, They've got big wings. Booker is

605
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 3: big for it for his position, Like, they're not overwhelmed

606
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 3: in terms of physicality. They've got a defense where if

607
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 3: they play star Rich at five, they can switch everything

608
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 3: one through five. Now, I don't know if you can

609
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:57,960
Speaker 3: play that versus Davis, right, Like, I don't know if

610
00:31:57,960 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 3: you can if you can put sar Rich on Davis

611
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 3: maybe though, like Davis doesn't want to bang down low

612
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 3: That's not what he wants. He wants to take. He

613
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:07,960
Speaker 3: wants to take face up jumpers. That's what he wants

614
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 3: to do all the time. So I don't necessarily worry

615
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 3: about him getting beasted in the post. If it's Sorrich, right,

616
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 3: I don't know if Manni will trust it, though, I

617
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 3: feel like Monni's gonna be like, I can't put sorry

618
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 3: out there versus a d I can't do it right.

619
00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 3: The Suns have a better bench. We can agree on that.

620
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 4: But I mean some has someone has negated because of

621
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 4: the playoff rotations.

622
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 3: Okay, but here's here's the key thing with that. It's

623
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 3: true that you that that your bench rotations don't matter

624
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 3: as much in a shortened and a shortened rotation. Okay, yeah,

625
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:45,000
Speaker 3: but the minutes. Think about this way. The Warriors almost

626
00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 3: beat the Lakers the other night in that game in

627
00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:50,400
Speaker 3: large part because they won the non steph minutes when

628
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 3: Lebron was on the floor to start the second Yeah,

629
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 3: those linees have actually not been great like the Lakers

630
00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:59,360
Speaker 3: in the second quarter. No, d with Lebron have not

631
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 3: been as good to see since they were last year.

632
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 3: So a lot of this is also its replacement, right,

633
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 3: So it's like, if somebody gets it, tweaks an ankle

634
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 3: or goes out or gets in foul trouble, can you

635
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 3: replace what you need to? And the Sons definitely have

636
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 3: that with campaign Cam Johnson, Like they have shooting, they

637
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 3: have scoring, they have defense all the way around. I

638
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 3: can't say that like the value is all gone on

639
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:30,200
Speaker 3: the Suns, that it's all gone. But everyone's kind of

640
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 3: just acting like this is going to be a walkover.

641
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 3: And I don't see a tactical reason for it. I

642
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 3: can see it from the perspective of Booker, Ayton, Pain

643
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 3: Johnson are not in it, like not Pain Johnson, Bridges,

644
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 3: the young guys are not ready for this. I can

645
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 3: see that that that's a thing we've seen, We've seen

646
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 3: experience be brutal in some of these playing tournament games.

647
00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 1: Mhm.

648
00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 3: I just don't think that there's like I don't see this.

649
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 3: I think everyone just kind of like, well, it's like

650
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 3: I do think there's value just being like, well it's

651
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 3: the Lakers, but if you're gonna do that, like just

652
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:09,279
Speaker 3: about the for the title, which I have, Yeah, but

653
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:12,959
Speaker 3: I wish that we were getting Like what I wish

654
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:17,240
Speaker 3: is that I wish I was getting like Suns plus

655
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:21,279
Speaker 3: one and a half is minus one sixty. That's absurd.

656
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:23,439
Speaker 3: And I get that. It's like, well, they're the two seed.

657
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:25,520
Speaker 3: You really can't give. But that's the problem is, like

658
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:27,799
Speaker 3: I can't get a better number on this. I like,

659
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:29,800
Speaker 3: I want a better number on plus one and a

660
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,359
Speaker 3: half than minus one sixty. It's really hard to find

661
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 3: a good one. The only one I think that really

662
00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 3: has value in this series is Lakers minus one and

663
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:43,360
Speaker 3: a half of plus one thirty, basically saying like if

664
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:44,880
Speaker 3: I'm wrong and it does go the other way and

665
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 3: the Lakers win Game one and they take care of

666
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 3: the two in LA and it's three to one going

667
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:55,000
Speaker 3: back to Phoenix wrap it up. Yeah, So that to

668
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 3: me is where the value is at.

669
00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 4: I think I think the biggest problem I'm having with

670
00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 4: this series is defective on a d were injured for

671
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 4: so long, and my numbers aren't going to incorporate who

672
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:09,520
Speaker 4: they are, so I kind of have to almost infer

673
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 4: what they could be, and I don't know if that

674
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 4: matches who they are now right right right?

675
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:19,319
Speaker 5: To me, my problem with the Lakers, and why I

676
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 5: the better in me, not the fan in me, is

677
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 5: fading them is kind of what you just said Rahiem,

678
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 5: except that I'm going the opposite direction. I think that

679
00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 5: we have seen, we haven't seen what Lebron is, what

680
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:36,680
Speaker 5: Davis is, what the Lakers are supposed to be, and

681
00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 5: I think that we're giving them too much credit. I

682
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 5: think that we are saying, Okay, yeah, they're just gonna

683
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 5: be awesome again. We saw it happen in the playoffs

684
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 5: last year. But we also like we're dismissing a bunch

685
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 5: of other playoff things that happened last year because of

686
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 5: the confluence of events that lined up perfectly. The Lakers

687
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:54,320
Speaker 5: had a lot of positive things that lined up perfectly.

688
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 5: They had all those shots they had the Rondo thing,

689
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 5: that a lot of big KCP shots, a lot of

690
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:01,800
Speaker 5: things happened last year that we were not this confident

691
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:04,399
Speaker 5: of going into the playoffs. And I don't think it's

692
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 5: fair to just assume that's all gonna happen again, especially

693
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,839
Speaker 5: when all the evidence we have this year doesn't say that,

694
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:15,239
Speaker 5: and when the injuries are serious. So I just think

695
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 5: we're giving the Lakers too much credit because of what

696
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 5: should be and what history has said. And that's my

697
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 5: stances against the Lakers, not in this series, but I

698
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:27,719
Speaker 5: don't think this is a championship team.

699
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 3: And yeah, you're gonna be talking about how the Lakers

700
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 3: are gonna win everything. All right, Let's go to the

701
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 3: final series that we have numbers four as we record

702
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:39,600
Speaker 3: this on Friday morning, the Los Angeles Clippers versus the

703
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 3: Dallas Mavericks, otherwise known as I as my goddamn it,

704
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:47,719
Speaker 3: why can't I figure out the series series Clippers mius

705
00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 3: three seventy five Mavericks plus three hundred series spread Clippers

706
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:57,760
Speaker 3: minus two and a half is plus one thirty. Clippers

707
00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:04,360
Speaker 3: minus one and a half is minus one eighty five. Rahem,

708
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:05,160
Speaker 3: Let's start with you.

709
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:11,160
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with the Clippers in five, Okay, I

710
00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:13,960
Speaker 4: just I mean I don't And you guys know I'm conservative.

711
00:37:14,239 --> 00:37:16,240
Speaker 4: I mean, you guys been working with me long enough.

712
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:18,440
Speaker 4: I don't really like the ladies type of bets. I

713
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 4: would rather lay the four point thirty over this type

714
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 4: of bet more often than not.

715
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 1: But I think I've spoken all year about how I

716
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:28,919
Speaker 1: love this Clippers team.

717
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 4: I think Lou Williams, I mean, Tylu was a huge

718
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 4: upgrade over Doc Rivers. They got rid of their biggest

719
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 4: DEFENSI season, Lou Williams and Montrest Harrow. They have so

720
00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:41,920
Speaker 4: many wings Kawhi Leonard and Paul George and Marcus Morris

721
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:47,200
Speaker 4: and Nick patom and that's always been a huge mismatch

722
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 4: for this you know, this Mavericks team.

723
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 2: Now, I love Dorian.

724
00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 1: Finney Smith, I love, but it's just it's just not enough.

725
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 4: And I think they can cause problems with this Mavericks

726
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:58,840
Speaker 4: team offensively and defensively. And the fact that they played

727
00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:02,799
Speaker 4: them last year and the series went six, and that's

728
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:05,319
Speaker 4: one of the reasons why they fired back, because you know,

729
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 4: we were really ownership wasn't really happy with the way

730
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,279
Speaker 4: he performed in that series. And then of course, you know,

731
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 4: get knocked out against the Nuggets. I think they'll be

732
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 4: super motivated, so it goes off and they shoot pretty well.

733
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:28,120
Speaker 4: But I think the Clippers they won't race this team.

734
00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:34,480
Speaker 5: Brandon, yeah, I mostly agree. I think that the Mavericks

735
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:36,719
Speaker 5: could take a second game. I don't think that they

736
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:39,920
Speaker 5: have a very real chance in the series. For the

737
00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:42,839
Speaker 5: Mavericks to win the series, I think Luka Doncic has

738
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:44,759
Speaker 5: to be the best player on the court by like

739
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 5: a significant margin. And that's not just Luca over Kaui

740
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:52,480
Speaker 5: and PG. That's Luca being defended by Kaui and PG

741
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:55,200
Speaker 5: and still need to be that much better than them.

742
00:38:55,320 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 5: Because it either is that Luca just goes super which

743
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:02,839
Speaker 5: is going to happen. I think we all agree at

744
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 5: some point. I don't know if it's happening yet, or

745
00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:10,320
Speaker 5: it has to be that Paul George disappears again and

746
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:14,240
Speaker 5: like that the Paul George over porisingis and everything else

747
00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:18,880
Speaker 5: a bandaged which is huge and significant disappears and suddenly

748
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 5: we have like, well, Luka and Kawhia played mostly even

749
00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 5: the rest of the cast are mostly even. Like that's

750
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:26,640
Speaker 5: the path for the Mavericks and I don't buy either

751
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 5: of those paths. I think Paul George has had a

752
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:31,319
Speaker 5: really good season is going to be good this year.

753
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:35,919
Speaker 5: And the Mavericks, I don't know. The Mavericks defense has

754
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 5: not looked great. The Mavericks offense is not as good,

755
00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:43,760
Speaker 5: I think as we want it to be. I really

756
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:47,400
Speaker 5: wanted to like the Mavericks going in, so I covered

757
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:49,839
Speaker 5: this series last year in the first round. I wrote

758
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:54,120
Speaker 5: about all the game guides here, and I remember being

759
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:56,840
Speaker 5: excited about the Mavericks going in. They have that insane

760
00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:59,360
Speaker 5: offensive efficiency and all that, and it just was the

761
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:02,920
Speaker 5: wrong matchup. It just to like, the whole point of

762
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 5: what the Clippers have built is to have these zillions

763
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:10,759
Speaker 5: of awesome wing defenders to throw at teams. Like last year,

764
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:13,840
Speaker 5: I thought that the Clippers facing off against the James

765
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 5: Harden team, that was like the death matchup if Harden

766
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 5: had to face them, because They're just gonna be able

767
00:40:18,719 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 5: to throw all this size and wing and just take

768
00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:24,000
Speaker 5: that away and just like mash whatever the offense is

769
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:26,759
Speaker 5: trying to do. I think that the Mavericks are a

770
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:28,719
Speaker 5: different version of that. Like we know that Luca and

771
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 5: Harding has a similar style. I just don't think it's

772
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 5: the right bet. I do think Luca's gonna be good.

773
00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:35,440
Speaker 5: I'm not saying he's not gonna have a good series.

774
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:37,440
Speaker 5: I just don't know that he can be that much

775
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:42,280
Speaker 5: better than everything else. And I'm not excited to bet

776
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:45,800
Speaker 5: the series lines because I think it's Clippers and five,

777
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 5: Clippers and six. I don't like none of the lines

778
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 5: feel like they give me the odds that entice me

779
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 5: that much. So the bet that I actually like in

780
00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:58,680
Speaker 5: the series best is that at bet MGM, you can

781
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:01,319
Speaker 5: bet on the series leading score, and I just think

782
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:03,759
Speaker 5: that that should be Luka Doncic. He averaged twenty seven

783
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 5: to seven in the season. Last year, he averaged thirty

784
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:09,320
Speaker 5: one a game. In the playoffs against the Clippers, he

785
00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:11,560
Speaker 5: had three games with thirty eight plus and he was

786
00:41:11,600 --> 00:41:15,120
Speaker 5: injured in multiple of those games. Kawhi was just under

787
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:18,279
Speaker 5: twenty five this year. Pg's at twenty three. I think

788
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 5: there's it's very easy for me to see Luca putting

789
00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:23,800
Speaker 5: up like thirty or more points a game and Kawhi

790
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:25,719
Speaker 5: and PG, I don't think they need to. I think

791
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:28,440
Speaker 5: that they have a better, more balanced team. I think

792
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:30,480
Speaker 5: they could end up like sitting out of fourth quarter

793
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 5: at some point because they had a nice easy win.

794
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 5: So look at minus one fifteen to lead in scoring,

795
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 5: that seems like a very good bet to me.

796
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 1: That's my interest on this series.

797
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:42,360
Speaker 2: I like that.

798
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:46,800
Speaker 3: I've got here in Colorado mius one thirty five for

799
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:49,239
Speaker 3: Lucas as the league scorer in the series, which is

800
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:54,799
Speaker 3: still pretty good value. So I went into prep for

801
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:56,920
Speaker 3: the series and was saying to myself, all right, I'm

802
00:41:56,920 --> 00:42:01,399
Speaker 3: gonna find reasons to take the Clippers, and every data

803
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:04,760
Speaker 3: point I find says to take the Mavericks.

804
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:08,479
Speaker 1: Wow, wow, really yeah.

805
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:12,840
Speaker 3: So here here's a here's a good example of this one.

806
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:15,319
Speaker 3: I want to know what the Brandon said, said the

807
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:18,640
Speaker 3: Mavericks defense has not been great minutes after saying that

808
00:42:18,680 --> 00:42:20,239
Speaker 3: he was taking the Portland Trailblazers to go to the

809
00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 3: Western Conference Finals.

810
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:22,200
Speaker 2: I heard it. I heard it.

811
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:28,080
Speaker 3: And so here's a good example of what happened last year.

812
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:34,360
Speaker 3: The Mavericks switched everything in their series versus the Clippers,

813
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:41,640
Speaker 3: and they actually held PG and Kawhi to a sub

814
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:45,240
Speaker 3: one point zero points for possession mark. They got killed

815
00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:49,320
Speaker 3: by one player in a switching when they were switching,

816
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:53,360
Speaker 3: and it was Lou Williams. With Lou Williams as a

817
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:55,359
Speaker 3: guy they were switching against, they gave up a one

818
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 3: point three points per possession mark, which nuked their defense.

819
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 3: You will notice that Lou william who is no longer

820
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:05,360
Speaker 3: found on the Los Angeles Clippers roster. They actually didn't

821
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:06,600
Speaker 3: do a lot of Like the whole thing with the

822
00:43:06,640 --> 00:43:09,680
Speaker 3: Clippers is like, we have all of these perimeter defenders

823
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:13,640
Speaker 3: and we will switch everything. They actually didn't do that

824
00:43:13,680 --> 00:43:16,560
Speaker 3: a lot versus Luca. They mostly played drop and it

825
00:43:16,760 --> 00:43:21,520
Speaker 3: worked pretty well with Zubach, who's a pretty good drop defender.

826
00:43:21,560 --> 00:43:23,720
Speaker 3: He can play up a little bit and still contain.

827
00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:28,360
Speaker 3: The reason I can't bet the Mavericks to win outright

828
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 3: is Kristaps porzingis who I do not trust to a

829
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 3: stay healthy or b step up in the moment. Okay, however,

830
00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 3: if you're telling me that, you're like, the Clippers are

831
00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:39,400
Speaker 3: still a drop heavy team because they have to be,

832
00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 3: Like that's who they are with Zubach, he's too big

833
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:45,080
Speaker 3: a part of their team. You can't switch with Zoo,

834
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:48,480
Speaker 3: you can't do it. So like they didn't. Like literally,

835
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:50,920
Speaker 3: I looked back the last two seasons, they have not

836
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:54,799
Speaker 3: in the data I have available. There is not a

837
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:58,560
Speaker 3: recorded instance between the last two seasons, regular season and

838
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:02,880
Speaker 3: postseason of them switching with Zoo onto Luca. They just

839
00:44:02,880 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 3: don't do it. They'll just drop if he puts them

840
00:44:05,680 --> 00:44:08,319
Speaker 3: in pick and roll. What they do, though, is the

841
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:10,800
Speaker 3: Mavericks run pick and roll with one of their guards.

842
00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:13,200
Speaker 3: They'll have Tim Hardaway Junior do it. They'll have Jalen

843
00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:15,440
Speaker 3: Brunson do it. They'll have Dorian Phinney Smith do it,

844
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:18,759
Speaker 3: and the Clippers will switch those positions, and then you

845
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:22,840
Speaker 3: get Marcus Morris in a switch situation versus Luka Doncic.

846
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:26,799
Speaker 3: That is not ideal. The numbers don't bode well for

847
00:44:26,840 --> 00:44:29,560
Speaker 3: that either. There's a bunch of different ways that the

848
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:36,040
Speaker 3: Mavericks can attack them other than just going at Zubach like.

849
00:44:36,040 --> 00:44:37,279
Speaker 3: There's just a lot of different ways that they can

850
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 3: do it the Clippers. Here's the other key element. I

851
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 3: look this up. Versus teams that are top ten in

852
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 3: both offensive and defensive efficiency via cleaning the glass, the

853
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 3: Mavericks are fourth indifferential with the third best defense in

854
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:03,440
Speaker 3: the NBA. Everything that we look at with the Mavericks

855
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:06,040
Speaker 3: is tilted by the fact that they suck ass versus

856
00:45:06,080 --> 00:45:12,080
Speaker 3: bad teams. Everything everything with Dallas is shaded by that fact.

857
00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:17,240
Speaker 3: If they just played average versus bad teams, the Mavericks

858
00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 3: are probably the three seed. But they didn't, and you

859
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:24,840
Speaker 3: could say, like, well, let's think about their quality of play. Sure,

860
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:29,000
Speaker 3: but they also played exceptionally well versus good teams. I

861
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:31,319
Speaker 3: was concerned about the fifty point blowout in the first

862
00:45:31,360 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 3: week of the season versus the Clippers influencing this, so

863
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:36,520
Speaker 3: I took it just after that. I took it after

864
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:38,719
Speaker 3: that game and looked at their numbers. There's still the

865
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:41,600
Speaker 3: ninth best defense versus teams that are top ten in

866
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:46,000
Speaker 3: offense and defense with the seventh best differential. Like the

867
00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:49,560
Speaker 3: Mavericks play well versus good teams, I have a really

868
00:45:49,560 --> 00:45:52,239
Speaker 3: hard time in the series figuring out if the Mavericks

869
00:45:52,239 --> 00:45:54,880
Speaker 3: are better or worse than last year. I do not

870
00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:57,799
Speaker 3: have the answer to that because as easy as it

871
00:45:57,880 --> 00:45:59,560
Speaker 3: is to be like, oh, they're worse, I mean, look

872
00:45:59,560 --> 00:46:01,680
Speaker 3: at them, so much of it last year was just

873
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 3: like they just bombed. They just like they just like

874
00:46:04,239 --> 00:46:07,560
Speaker 3: Chuck threes. And that was doable by the playoff series.

875
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:10,239
Speaker 3: You have to be able to win like closer possessions

876
00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:12,480
Speaker 3: I think this this team might be a little bit

877
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:14,920
Speaker 3: better geared toward it. One thing that's another key factor

878
00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:17,720
Speaker 3: though against the Mavericks is Maxi Leeber's not one hundred percent.

879
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:19,719
Speaker 3: If he doesn't play, that takes away a pick and

880
00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:22,799
Speaker 3: pop option, and that's a real problem for them. This

881
00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:25,080
Speaker 3: is a situation where I can easily talk myself into

882
00:46:25,160 --> 00:46:28,160
Speaker 3: Dallas by going way too far into the specific matchup

883
00:46:28,160 --> 00:46:30,399
Speaker 3: stuff and then forgetting the big picture. I don't want

884
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:35,640
Speaker 3: to take Dallas to win the series. However, I get

885
00:46:35,840 --> 00:46:38,640
Speaker 3: Mavericks plus two and a half at minus one fifty five,

886
00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:44,239
Speaker 3: I'm only laying a buck and a half versus them

887
00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:46,920
Speaker 3: to get two games out of the series, versus a

888
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:50,280
Speaker 3: Clippers team that let's be on. Like, you know, Rahim,

889
00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:52,319
Speaker 3: You've talked about this, like, oh but Doc Rivers is gone.

890
00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:56,239
Speaker 3: It's like I don't trust Tylo anymore, like I don't

891
00:46:56,280 --> 00:46:59,920
Speaker 3: trust TYLERU anymore than this. There's no reason to try

892
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:03,200
Speaker 3: Tyler anymore than Doc Rivers because a lot of this

893
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:06,560
Speaker 3: just comes down to I don't trust Kauai as your leader.

894
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:07,879
Speaker 2: I just don't.

895
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:10,279
Speaker 4: I think that's that's a big thing that nobody's talking

896
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:13,719
Speaker 4: about right now, and he's been having some hand problems.

897
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:17,640
Speaker 4: I think that's big like, and it's not being talked

898
00:47:17,640 --> 00:47:18,400
Speaker 4: about anywhere.

899
00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:20,560
Speaker 3: So again, I think the Clippers are gonna get out

900
00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:24,000
Speaker 3: of this series. I don't love it. Again. This is

901
00:47:24,000 --> 00:47:25,280
Speaker 3: another series where it's just too sharp.

902
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:27,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think a lot of these a lot of

903
00:47:27,719 --> 00:47:30,840
Speaker 4: these lines are shrump and I'm I think.

904
00:47:30,640 --> 00:47:34,719
Speaker 1: The frustrating thing for me is that outside of the.

905
00:47:34,719 --> 00:47:38,400
Speaker 4: Two Pickham series with the the Nuggets and the Blazers

906
00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:40,839
Speaker 4: and the Knicks and the Hawks, the public hasn't really

907
00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:41,239
Speaker 4: weigh in.

908
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:47,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, hasn't hasn't moved. So yeah, like, I'm gonna take

909
00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:49,640
Speaker 3: Mavericks plus two and a half minus one fifty five.

910
00:47:50,080 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go that route. And then if I'm wrong

911
00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:54,720
Speaker 3: on this one, I'm not gonna go heavy on units.

912
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:59,040
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take that and just I will I will,

913
00:47:59,080 --> 00:48:01,120
Speaker 3: I will dabble on this one. But I think it's

914
00:48:01,160 --> 00:48:03,640
Speaker 3: a real trap series that can go a bunch of

915
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:07,400
Speaker 3: different ways. That's the three series that we have numbers.

916
00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:13,520
Speaker 3: On Tonight Friday Night, we'll get Warriors Grizzlies. I'm expecting

917
00:48:13,520 --> 00:48:16,360
Speaker 3: a Warriors win. Are you both expecting Warriors wins?

918
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:19,120
Speaker 4: I mean the line went up to five, and I

919
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:21,680
Speaker 4: did the game guy and I wrote about the Warriors. Basically,

920
00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:23,560
Speaker 4: I just I feel like the Grizzlies aren't going to

921
00:48:23,600 --> 00:48:25,120
Speaker 4: be able to defend Steph Curry at all.

922
00:48:25,680 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 3: I don't know why everyone talks about this. Who does Like,

923
00:48:29,520 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 3: you don't beat the Warriors by by shutting down Steph Curry.

924
00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:36,360
Speaker 3: You beat the Warriors by shutting down everybody else and

925
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:39,560
Speaker 3: then out scoring them. It's not don't let Jta hit

926
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:42,880
Speaker 3: three threes on you don't like a lot of it.

927
00:48:42,920 --> 00:48:44,719
Speaker 3: For the Grizzlies, they lost that last game because they

928
00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:46,440
Speaker 3: couldn't hit anything. That's a big thing in this.

929
00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:48,880
Speaker 1: One, and they got to make shots.

930
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:53,840
Speaker 5: Two for the Grizzlies is that the two of Memphis'

931
00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:58,399
Speaker 5: biggest advantages are winning the rebounding battle in the turnover battle. Yeah,

932
00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:01,640
Speaker 5: we know that those are two areas that the Warriors

933
00:49:01,760 --> 00:49:05,359
Speaker 5: can struggle a lot with. So like, I don't think

934
00:49:05,400 --> 00:49:07,600
Speaker 5: that the Grizzlies are going to end, but I can

935
00:49:07,640 --> 00:49:09,840
Speaker 5: see what the game looks like if they do. Like

936
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:13,400
Speaker 5: it's another Valentiunas puts up a twenty twenty game because

937
00:49:13,440 --> 00:49:15,399
Speaker 5: they just don't have someone that can stop him.

938
00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:17,640
Speaker 2: Here's the thing that stopped.

939
00:49:17,280 --> 00:49:20,120
Speaker 5: Turning it over and steals leading easy bockets. And that's

940
00:49:20,160 --> 00:49:22,120
Speaker 5: how the Grizzly is finding some points to keep up

941
00:49:22,160 --> 00:49:23,400
Speaker 5: with a Here's.

942
00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:25,759
Speaker 4: The thing though, I mean Voluneernis has gone off in

943
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:27,520
Speaker 4: each of the last two games, and he scored twenty

944
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:31,760
Speaker 4: nine on Sunday, and he scored twenty three against the Spurs,

945
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:33,719
Speaker 4: and it was everybody else who couldn't score. And then

946
00:49:33,719 --> 00:49:36,160
Speaker 4: when you look at the three games in which the

947
00:49:36,200 --> 00:49:38,600
Speaker 4: Warriors played the Grizzly this year, Steph curR didn't playing

948
00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:40,839
Speaker 4: one of them. The Grizzlies had offensive ratings of one

949
00:49:40,840 --> 00:49:43,759
Speaker 4: o five one hundred and one oh five. So this

950
00:49:43,840 --> 00:49:47,160
Speaker 4: team is struggling to score against this Warrior's defense, which

951
00:49:47,200 --> 00:49:49,560
Speaker 4: is fifth and defensive rating, and I think that's the

952
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:52,120
Speaker 4: most underrated think about this Warriors team this year is dead.

953
00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:53,920
Speaker 1: They still can defense.

954
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:57,320
Speaker 4: So if nobody else is gonna step up, if John Moran,

955
00:49:57,840 --> 00:50:00,239
Speaker 4: John Muran's gotta give you twenty five to thirty him

956
00:50:00,280 --> 00:50:01,640
Speaker 4: to win it this game tonight.

957
00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:05,400
Speaker 3: The Warriors are the the early two thousands iverson sixers.

958
00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:10,520
Speaker 3: It's all defense. And then one dude just scoring.

959
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:14,120
Speaker 5: So accurate, like fix up like really actually good at

960
00:50:14,200 --> 00:50:15,279
Speaker 5: doing that part.

961
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:17,839
Speaker 1: We're not gonna go We're we're not gonna do this today.

962
00:50:17,840 --> 00:50:19,680
Speaker 3: We're not gonna do this. We're not going to do this.

963
00:50:20,040 --> 00:50:22,279
Speaker 3: We're not gonna do this. I will not tolerate it.

964
00:50:23,920 --> 00:50:24,640
Speaker 1: Because you know what it is.

965
00:50:24,680 --> 00:50:26,960
Speaker 4: I'm gonna tell you. I'm gonna tell you. I know Brandon.

966
00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:30,920
Speaker 4: I've known Brandon for almost a year now. Brandon still

967
00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:36,160
Speaker 4: he views early two thousands basketball through what twenty twenty

968
00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:39,000
Speaker 4: one leans And that's not fair and I'm not gonna

969
00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:39,680
Speaker 4: allow to happen.

970
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:40,160
Speaker 2: You can't do that.

971
00:50:40,200 --> 00:50:42,200
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on before this gets gets nay.

972
00:50:42,360 --> 00:50:45,319
Speaker 3: So let's assume the Warriors. If it's Grizzlies, we'll talk

973
00:50:45,320 --> 00:50:47,000
Speaker 3: about it on Monday on the next episode of the

974
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:49,600
Speaker 3: actual network gonna be a podcast. And if it's Warriors,

975
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:51,720
Speaker 3: let's assume it's Warriors.

976
00:50:51,400 --> 00:50:55,520
Speaker 4: The Golden State Warriors at the Utah Jazz.

977
00:50:55,760 --> 00:50:57,600
Speaker 3: Are either of you going to be looking? Are you

978
00:50:57,640 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 3: going to be looking for Jazz Angles or Warriors? Angle

979
00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:02,439
Speaker 3: is going when the series prices drop rand and start

980
00:51:02,480 --> 00:51:03,160
Speaker 3: with you.

981
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:07,680
Speaker 5: So I just think the Jazz are too good. The Warriors.

982
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:11,360
Speaker 5: I don't know the record, but the Warriors record versus

983
00:51:11,760 --> 00:51:15,640
Speaker 5: like average and bad teams has been very strong. That's

984
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:19,359
Speaker 5: how they've survived and stayed afloat. I know, like down

985
00:51:19,400 --> 00:51:22,040
Speaker 5: the last month or so, we saw the Warriors beat

986
00:51:22,239 --> 00:51:24,400
Speaker 5: some of the best teams in the NBA at home,

987
00:51:26,040 --> 00:51:28,360
Speaker 5: and they finally got some of those wins. But earlier

988
00:51:28,360 --> 00:51:31,319
Speaker 5: in the season, the Warriors were terrible against like any

989
00:51:31,360 --> 00:51:33,759
Speaker 5: good team, and then they were just beating up on

990
00:51:33,800 --> 00:51:38,359
Speaker 5: the bad teams. When Steph faces one of the top

991
00:51:38,400 --> 00:51:42,200
Speaker 5: defenses that actually has some answers, it's you know, he's

992
00:51:42,239 --> 00:51:44,200
Speaker 5: still stuff, but they have a way to at least

993
00:51:44,280 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 5: kind of keep him in check. And I just think

994
00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:49,920
Speaker 5: that the Jazz are too good. The Jazz also are

995
00:51:49,920 --> 00:51:54,040
Speaker 5: going to have a very huge rest advantage here and

996
00:51:54,120 --> 00:51:56,800
Speaker 5: a home advantage I think. I think like we've gotten

997
00:51:56,840 --> 00:51:59,240
Speaker 5: used to a home court not really being part of things.

998
00:51:59,600 --> 00:52:01,520
Speaker 5: The Jazz have always had a huge home court and

999
00:52:01,520 --> 00:52:03,200
Speaker 5: the home court advantage you can actually get better in

1000
00:52:03,239 --> 00:52:05,560
Speaker 5: the playoffs than it was in the regular season for once,

1001
00:52:05,880 --> 00:52:08,120
Speaker 5: like normally it flips and it's not as big of

1002
00:52:08,120 --> 00:52:10,600
Speaker 5: a deal. Utah, I think he has more fans than

1003
00:52:10,560 --> 00:52:13,399
Speaker 5: anyone else right now. They're thirty one and five at home,

1004
00:52:13,760 --> 00:52:17,560
Speaker 5: they have the elevation advantage combined with their rest disadvantage,

1005
00:52:17,760 --> 00:52:20,200
Speaker 5: like the Warriors if they win tonight or me coming

1006
00:52:20,239 --> 00:52:24,480
Speaker 5: off to Game seven type atmospheres in like the last

1007
00:52:24,560 --> 00:52:28,439
Speaker 5: four days before they play, suddenly they're down one, and

1008
00:52:28,880 --> 00:52:31,400
Speaker 5: you know, I just think it's very easy for me

1009
00:52:31,440 --> 00:52:34,200
Speaker 5: to see where the Jazz just like win this in

1010
00:52:34,280 --> 00:52:36,759
Speaker 5: four or five and just look like just the much

1011
00:52:36,760 --> 00:52:41,680
Speaker 5: better team the Warriors. Steph could just do Steph things

1012
00:52:42,080 --> 00:52:45,080
Speaker 5: and then who knows. But I feel like Steph can

1013
00:52:45,200 --> 00:52:47,400
Speaker 5: like score forty a game and I still don't know

1014
00:52:47,440 --> 00:52:51,120
Speaker 5: where the other sixty five points or whatever are coming from.

1015
00:52:52,360 --> 00:52:54,360
Speaker 3: Right. My thing of this series is I feel like

1016
00:52:54,360 --> 00:52:58,160
Speaker 3: the public's guy come in on the Warriors. If this

1017
00:52:58,320 --> 00:53:00,600
Speaker 3: was not Steph, I would think that this would be

1018
00:53:00,640 --> 00:53:04,520
Speaker 3: like a sneaky opportunity to grab Golden State. It's like,

1019
00:53:04,520 --> 00:53:06,920
Speaker 3: all right, look, you got this Diama guard versus the

1020
00:53:07,760 --> 00:53:10,879
Speaker 3: Jazz drop defense, Rudy struggles in space, et cetera, et cetera,

1021
00:53:10,920 --> 00:53:15,240
Speaker 3: et cetera. The Warriors at three point shooting. The Jazz

1022
00:53:15,920 --> 00:53:18,840
Speaker 3: have three point shooting, but I don't trust their shooters

1023
00:53:18,880 --> 00:53:22,600
Speaker 3: as much as in the regular season. But I feel

1024
00:53:22,600 --> 00:53:25,920
Speaker 3: like if it's Staph versus the Jazz, I feel like

1025
00:53:25,960 --> 00:53:28,960
Speaker 3: the public is gonna go so heavy on the Warriors

1026
00:53:29,600 --> 00:53:32,000
Speaker 3: that we're gonna be able to get a good series

1027
00:53:32,040 --> 00:53:34,680
Speaker 3: price on Utah, like minus one and a half or

1028
00:53:34,719 --> 00:53:37,640
Speaker 3: minus two and a half. Like that's my initial, but

1029
00:53:38,280 --> 00:53:41,799
Speaker 3: the books models are gonna put the Jazz is such

1030
00:53:41,800 --> 00:53:45,719
Speaker 3: a big favorite. Like, am I gonna be able to

1031
00:53:45,719 --> 00:53:49,360
Speaker 3: get Jazz minus one and a half at anything close

1032
00:53:49,400 --> 00:53:52,120
Speaker 3: to like good value? I don't think so. I feel

1033
00:53:52,120 --> 00:53:55,160
Speaker 3: like it's still gonna be like minus three hundred. But

1034
00:53:55,239 --> 00:53:57,319
Speaker 3: I don't want to take like they're only gonna give

1035
00:53:57,320 --> 00:53:59,680
Speaker 3: you good numbers on things like the Warriors to win

1036
00:53:59,680 --> 00:54:01,560
Speaker 3: the series. He's outright, which I don't want to bet.

1037
00:54:03,960 --> 00:54:07,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm approaching this series. I'm I'm looking for spots

1038
00:54:07,120 --> 00:54:11,200
Speaker 4: to take the Warriors. I think we're underestimating how different

1039
00:54:11,239 --> 00:54:14,479
Speaker 4: this Warriors team was from who they are now.

1040
00:54:15,200 --> 00:54:15,720
Speaker 1: I mean.

1041
00:54:17,560 --> 00:54:21,600
Speaker 4: James Wiseman and Kelly Ubre were actively sabotaging this team.

1042
00:54:21,760 --> 00:54:24,920
Speaker 3: No, Like, I feel so bad for those dudes, Like,

1043
00:54:25,239 --> 00:54:28,880
Speaker 3: let's keep it honest, like Uber like Wise, it's like

1044
00:54:28,920 --> 00:54:32,160
Speaker 3: twenty He's like such a kid. This system so complex

1045
00:54:32,440 --> 00:54:35,840
Speaker 3: And then like and then like Uber Uber was a

1046
00:54:35,840 --> 00:54:38,200
Speaker 3: good player in Washington, he was a good player in Phoenix,

1047
00:54:39,000 --> 00:54:42,880
Speaker 3: Like he wanted to help out this like Warriors championship

1048
00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:45,399
Speaker 3: team and he's like the Scape. I feel so bad

1049
00:54:45,480 --> 00:54:45,879
Speaker 3: for him.

1050
00:54:46,160 --> 00:54:48,520
Speaker 4: I'm just saying, but I mean they've been actively like

1051
00:54:48,560 --> 00:54:51,600
Speaker 4: they've literally actively sabotaged his team, Like, and I hate

1052
00:54:51,640 --> 00:54:56,600
Speaker 4: to say it, but this Warriors team, like since since

1053
00:54:56,640 --> 00:54:59,799
Speaker 4: they've been out their second in net rating. Now I

1054
00:54:59,840 --> 00:55:02,399
Speaker 4: know you said, I mean you said something earlier, which

1055
00:55:02,440 --> 00:55:04,840
Speaker 4: I think you're right that you actually kind of have

1056
00:55:04,920 --> 00:55:07,080
Speaker 4: to take the last twenty games with a great assault.

1057
00:55:07,719 --> 00:55:10,880
Speaker 1: But that's a huge difference. They're like twentyth and deft rating.

1058
00:55:11,120 --> 00:55:13,600
Speaker 4: They're like second in defensive rating and they're knife in

1059
00:55:13,680 --> 00:55:16,160
Speaker 4: offensive rating. So I think this is a different team.

1060
00:55:16,880 --> 00:55:19,840
Speaker 4: This Warriors team has been able to give the Jazz problems,

1061
00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:25,239
Speaker 4: like you said, because Rudy Gobert plays drop coverage. I

1062
00:55:25,320 --> 00:55:28,080
Speaker 4: just think it's it's a matchup in which to me,

1063
00:55:28,200 --> 00:55:31,120
Speaker 4: I think this is a career defining series for Steph Curry.

1064
00:55:31,840 --> 00:55:35,000
Speaker 4: Like this is a series where if you were one

1065
00:55:35,000 --> 00:55:37,479
Speaker 4: of those people who felt like, oh, Steph Curry can't

1066
00:55:37,520 --> 00:55:40,120
Speaker 4: carry a team and he still got to prove itself

1067
00:55:40,160 --> 00:55:44,240
Speaker 4: without Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant. If you weren't a believer,

1068
00:55:44,800 --> 00:55:46,600
Speaker 4: this is a series where he makes you a believer

1069
00:55:47,440 --> 00:55:50,120
Speaker 4: and he goes out there and he wins two games

1070
00:55:50,600 --> 00:55:51,400
Speaker 4: single handedly.

1071
00:55:53,160 --> 00:55:55,719
Speaker 3: If he wins two games, does that prove anything? No?

1072
00:55:55,760 --> 00:55:57,440
Speaker 4: But I think he does it in such I think

1073
00:55:57,480 --> 00:55:59,239
Speaker 4: he does it in such a way to where it's

1074
00:55:59,239 --> 00:56:02,120
Speaker 4: just like, you know what, if you weren't believer before,

1075
00:56:02,120 --> 00:56:03,840
Speaker 4: you believe, also.

1076
00:56:03,960 --> 00:56:06,640
Speaker 3: Now win the series. Now when when the go beat

1077
00:56:06,920 --> 00:56:11,400
Speaker 3: go go beat to go beart, go do that.

1078
00:56:11,440 --> 00:56:14,120
Speaker 1: But but what's going on with Donnovan Mitchell? Donald Mitchell's

1079
00:56:14,120 --> 00:56:15,760
Speaker 1: playing seventeen games.

1080
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:17,960
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, he's supposed to be. He's hopeful to be

1081
00:56:18,000 --> 00:56:20,560
Speaker 3: ready for the first game. So I mean that's a factor.

1082
00:56:20,640 --> 00:56:25,319
Speaker 3: I agree with you, like I agree with you. Are

1083
00:56:25,320 --> 00:56:27,120
Speaker 3: you gonna bet the Warriors on the series line?

1084
00:56:27,760 --> 00:56:30,240
Speaker 4: No, I'm just gonna pick. I'm gonna pick my spots

1085
00:56:30,280 --> 00:56:32,600
Speaker 4: and I'm gonna go money line like I'm gonna treat

1086
00:56:32,600 --> 00:56:35,359
Speaker 4: it like the same way I did the Warriors when

1087
00:56:35,360 --> 00:56:39,000
Speaker 4: they played the Spurs back in twenty thirteen. I think

1088
00:56:39,040 --> 00:56:42,040
Speaker 4: I bet them the first two games of the series. Yeah,

1089
00:56:42,200 --> 00:56:45,840
Speaker 4: I'm approach it that way because I think they I

1090
00:56:45,840 --> 00:56:47,399
Speaker 4: think they're live. They're gonna win win in the first

1091
00:56:47,400 --> 00:56:48,360
Speaker 4: two games in my opinion.

1092
00:56:48,719 --> 00:56:53,000
Speaker 5: Okay, so what what where's the spot where you are

1093
00:56:53,040 --> 00:56:55,279
Speaker 5: willing to bet on the Warriors winning the series? Like

1094
00:56:55,400 --> 00:56:57,000
Speaker 5: is it when they win one of the first two?

1095
00:56:57,239 --> 00:57:00,200
Speaker 5: Are they off three to one because they won the

1096
00:57:00,200 --> 00:57:02,960
Speaker 5: two home games? Like what's the breaking point where you think,

1097
00:57:03,000 --> 00:57:05,240
Speaker 5: oh man, they're actually going to win the series.

1098
00:57:05,960 --> 00:57:08,200
Speaker 4: I think that's something I have to see in real time,

1099
00:57:08,600 --> 00:57:11,879
Speaker 4: whether there's an adjustment or there's something that Jazz can't

1100
00:57:11,920 --> 00:57:14,920
Speaker 4: handle or like. But right now, I'm not betting them

1101
00:57:14,960 --> 00:57:17,680
Speaker 4: to win a series. But I do think you mentioned

1102
00:57:17,720 --> 00:57:20,280
Speaker 4: something that was, you know, very interesting about the home

1103
00:57:20,320 --> 00:57:24,640
Speaker 4: court advantage, and you know, home court advantage in the playoffs.

1104
00:57:24,440 --> 00:57:27,440
Speaker 4: It's unreal, Like I mean, like I have it tracked.

1105
00:57:27,600 --> 00:57:29,640
Speaker 4: When I look at home court advantage for the regular season.

1106
00:57:29,640 --> 00:57:32,080
Speaker 4: In the twenty eighteen season, I had it around two

1107
00:57:32,120 --> 00:57:34,080
Speaker 4: and a half points. For the playoffs, I had it

1108
00:57:34,160 --> 00:57:38,120
Speaker 4: around three point two two. In twenty seventeen, I actually

1109
00:57:38,120 --> 00:57:40,760
Speaker 4: had home court advantage for the playoffs at like six points.

1110
00:57:41,640 --> 00:57:45,240
Speaker 4: So it's just like it's it's It is a big factor,

1111
00:57:45,320 --> 00:57:46,200
Speaker 4: especially in Utah.

1112
00:57:46,440 --> 00:57:48,280
Speaker 3: I think the lines are tough. I think it's tough.

1113
00:57:48,440 --> 00:57:50,360
Speaker 3: I just think the public is gonna work this too much.

1114
00:57:50,840 --> 00:57:52,840
Speaker 3: I don't feel like the numbers are gonna be good

1115
00:57:53,360 --> 00:57:57,160
Speaker 3: on those at all. All right, let's wrap this up.

1116
00:57:57,280 --> 00:57:59,760
Speaker 3: Thanks for joining us on the Action Network NBA podcast

1117
00:58:00,040 --> 00:58:02,640
Speaker 3: be a playoff preview for the Western Conference. We'll back

1118
00:58:02,640 --> 00:58:05,080
Speaker 3: on Monday. We'll talk about the weekend's game ones. We'll

1119
00:58:05,080 --> 00:58:06,920
Speaker 3: get your set. We'll take a look at the updated

1120
00:58:06,920 --> 00:58:08,680
Speaker 3: series prices and get your set in like you know

1121
00:58:08,680 --> 00:58:11,960
Speaker 3: where the value is going forward. Having covered throughout the playoffs,

1122
00:58:12,000 --> 00:58:14,080
Speaker 3: make sure it download the Action Network app. You contract

1123
00:58:14,080 --> 00:58:16,560
Speaker 3: your bets, get the up to second analysis. We've got

1124
00:58:16,640 --> 00:58:19,120
Speaker 3: series prices in the app you can track so you

1125
00:58:19,120 --> 00:58:22,920
Speaker 3: can bragda all your friends. I had the Moortland Trailblazers

1126
00:58:22,960 --> 00:58:26,439
Speaker 3: in this series. You can do all that brand.

1127
00:58:26,560 --> 00:58:28,600
Speaker 1: Let me take your action on that series you can do.

1128
00:58:28,720 --> 00:58:31,600
Speaker 5: You already got my action, already, already paid the bucks already.

1129
00:58:32,160 --> 00:58:32,440
Speaker 2: Man.

1130
00:58:33,240 --> 00:58:35,120
Speaker 3: All right, that's gonna wrap it up for Raheem Palmer,

1131
00:58:35,360 --> 00:58:38,280
Speaker 3: Brandon Anderson, I'm Matt Moore. We'll see you guys again

1132
00:58:38,320 --> 00:58:40,280
Speaker 3: next time on the Action Network podcast NBA.

1133
00:58:40,320 --> 00:58:48,000
Speaker 6: Additional we're finished talking