1 00:00:00,720 --> 00:00:05,200 Speaker 1: Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shabaz Sharif and Field 2 00:00:05,240 --> 00:00:09,360 Speaker 1: Marshall ac Manuir of Pakistan and wherein they requested that 3 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:12,399 Speaker 1: I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran. 4 00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: He was extremely serious in my conversation with him just now, 5 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:22,440 Speaker 1: and he was also cautiously but seriously optimistic. 6 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 2: You're listening to the forty seven Morning Update with Ben ferguson. 7 00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 3: Good Wednesday morning. 8 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 4: Nice to have you with us on the forty seven 9 00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 4: Morning Update, and we've obviously got one very big story today, 10 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 4: a last minute pivot from war to a ceasefire. It 11 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 4: was one of the most dramatic eleventh hour decisions of 12 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:43,919 Speaker 4: President Trump's presidency, and it pulled the world back from 13 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 4: the brink of a potentially catastrophic escalation for a ran. 14 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 3: So what happens next, We have it all for you, 15 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:53,280 Speaker 3: But first. 16 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 4: I want to take a moment and talk to you 17 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 4: about what you can do to help the people in 18 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:00,920 Speaker 4: Israel right now who are literally under fire as we speak, 19 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 4: taking rockets even as the ceasefire has been announced, and 20 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 4: my friends at IFCJ they need your help right now 21 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:11,480 Speaker 4: like never before. I want to take a moment and 22 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 4: talk to you about a man named Phineas who has 23 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 4: a child survived the Holocaust. Phineas survived because Christians hid 24 00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 4: him from the Nazis, risking everything to save his life. Today, 25 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:28,480 Speaker 4: he is in his eighties. He can no longer stand 26 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 4: on his own or leave his home to receive medical care, 27 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:35,040 Speaker 4: and when the siren sounds and the missiles fall, he 28 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:38,760 Speaker 4: doesn't have time or the strength to reach safety. But 29 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 4: once again, Christians are helping save his life. Through the 30 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:47,160 Speaker 4: International Fellowship of Christians and Jews, a mobile clinic brings 31 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 4: doctors and medicine right inside of his home, providing care 32 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 4: he wouldn't receive, especially in wartime. Christians saved my life 33 00:01:56,400 --> 00:02:00,320 Speaker 4: during the Holocaust, he said, and now again their help me. 34 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 4: So as Israel's Holocaust Remembrance Day approaches, we honor survivors 35 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:09,639 Speaker 4: like Phineas, not just with words, but with action. Give 36 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 4: forty five dollars right now and you can rush life 37 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:16,959 Speaker 4: saving essentials to the vulnerable in Israel under fire eight 38 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 4: at eight four eight eight IFCJ. That's eight eight eight 39 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:27,640 Speaker 4: four eight eight IFCJ, or go online to IFCJ dot org. 40 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:32,560 Speaker 4: That's if CJ dot org. It's a forty seven morning 41 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 4: update and it starts right now. 42 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 3: Story number one. 43 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 4: A Ran has agreed to an immediate opening of the 44 00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:43,240 Speaker 4: Strait of hor Moves. This is now what is being 45 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:47,920 Speaker 4: described by President Trump as a two week double sided ceasefire. 46 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:51,800 Speaker 4: And it happened just minutes before the President was seeing 47 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:55,639 Speaker 4: the military end to do exactly what he promised. Now 48 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 4: for weeks, the world has been watching at a ticking clock. 49 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:03,079 Speaker 4: Trumpet issued that stark ultimatum reopen the Straight of hor 50 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:08,080 Speaker 4: Moves or face devastating US strikes targeting Iran's infrastructure. The 51 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 4: deadline was not symbolic. US military assets were already positioned 52 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:17,400 Speaker 4: and officials had signaled that a large scale operation was imminent. 53 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:22,079 Speaker 4: And then with less than two hours ago, everything changed. 54 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 4: Why the Straight of hor Moves matters is a question 55 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 4: many of you may be asking, And to understand the 56 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 4: magnitude of this moment, you have to understand the strategic 57 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 4: choke point at the center of all of this. Now, 58 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 4: this narrow waterway is not just another shipping lane. It 59 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:42,720 Speaker 4: is the artery of the global energy system. Roughly twenty 60 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 4: percent of the world's oil supply flows through it daily. 61 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 4: At the height of the crisis, traffic dropped to nearly zero, 62 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 4: oil prices surge past one hundred dollars a barrel, triggering 63 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 4: global economic shock waves. When I Ran effectively shut down 64 00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 4: the Straight during the war, it didn't just challenge the 65 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:06,480 Speaker 4: United States of America. It shook the entire global economy, 66 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 4: sending energy prices soaring and forcing ships to reroute or 67 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 4: halt entirely. And this just wasn't a military standoff. It 68 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:20,360 Speaker 4: was clearly economic warfare by Iran on a global scale. 69 00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 4: The ceasefire deal is what could change all of this, 70 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:28,279 Speaker 4: and the breakthrough were being told came through back channel diplomacy, 71 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 4: largely broker by Pakistan, which stepped in at the last 72 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 4: minute to mediate between Washington and Tehran. Now Here is 73 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 4: what the deal includes. Iran agrees to fully reopen the 74 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 4: Strait of Hormuz, allowing safe passage for global shipping, the 75 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:52,040 Speaker 4: most critical condition demanded by President Trump. Then a two 76 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:57,280 Speaker 4: week mutual ceasefire. Both sides agreed to halt their military operations, 77 00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 4: Trump calling it a double sided cease fire, and then 78 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:06,720 Speaker 4: a pause on US military strikes, Trumps suspending plant attacks 79 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 4: that have been described earlier in the day as potentially 80 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 4: devastating to Iran's infrastructure. Specifically, they're electrical grid and bridges 81 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 4: that are very important in Iran. The other part about 82 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:23,839 Speaker 4: this is, well, this possibility of a path to a 83 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 4: larger piece deal. Negotiations are expected to begin in Islamabad 84 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:33,480 Speaker 4: built around a ten point iranium proposal that could shape 85 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:37,960 Speaker 4: a longer term agreement in theory. Now, the other question 86 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:40,800 Speaker 4: you may be asking yourself is why did President Trump 87 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 4: make this move? Well, Trump framed that decision not as 88 00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:49,400 Speaker 4: a retreat, but as leverage paying off. Here's exactly how 89 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 4: Fox News announced it on Laura Ingram's show, Take a Listen. 90 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,360 Speaker 1: We start tonight with a very big Fox News alert. 91 00:05:57,720 --> 00:06:01,119 Speaker 1: The deadline is off and we have what's being called 92 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:05,479 Speaker 1: a double sided ceasefire, a live report from the region 93 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:08,920 Speaker 1: in moments. Now, I want to tell you how we 94 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 1: were scheduled to start the show. I spent all afternoon writing. 95 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:17,840 Speaker 1: The script started like this TikTok t minus fifty nine 96 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:22,359 Speaker 1: minutes thirty seconds until Donald Trump's eight pm deadline for 97 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:26,520 Speaker 1: Iran to reopen the Strait of Horn moves. But just 98 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:31,559 Speaker 1: moments ago, Donald Trump posted this and it's the entire truth. 99 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 1: Social post where essentially, he says based on conversations with 100 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 1: Prime Minister Shabaz Sharif and Field Marshal ac Manuur of 101 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 1: Pakistan and wherein they requested that I hold off the 102 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:47,920 Speaker 1: destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and it continues 103 00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:49,720 Speaker 1: to go on and on. And I just got off 104 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:53,040 Speaker 1: the phone with President Trump and I will say this, 105 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 1: We'll read the whole post later. He literally just had 106 00:06:55,440 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 1: to rewrite the whole show. He was extremely serious in 107 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:04,599 Speaker 1: my conversation with him just now, and he was also 108 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 1: cautiously but seriously optimistic. He told me that the negotiations 109 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 1: are and were incredibly complex. He does not want them jeopardized. 110 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 1: There still needs to be an announced agreement. And of 111 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 1: course we all know in this part of the world 112 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 1: anything can happen. But it sure looks like Iran blinked. 113 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:29,920 Speaker 1: So again the truth social post now, I will read 114 00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 1: it based on conversation with the Prime Minister Shabash Sharif 115 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:36,680 Speaker 1: and the Field Marshal Assimunier of Pakistan and wherein they 116 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 1: requested that I hold off on the destructive force being 117 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 1: sent tonight to Iran and subject to the Islamic Republic 118 00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 1: of Iran, agreeing to the complete, immediate and safe opening 119 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 1: of the Strait of horror moves. 120 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 2: That's key. 121 00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 1: I agreed to suspend the bombing and the attack of 122 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:55,320 Speaker 1: Iran for a. 123 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 3: Period of two weeks. 124 00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 1: This will be a double sided ceasefire. The reason for 125 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:03,120 Speaker 1: doing so is that we have already met and exceeded 126 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 1: all military objectives and are very far along with a 127 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 1: definitive agreement concerning long term peace with Iran. 128 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 4: Now you listen to that, and here's more of what 129 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:18,480 Speaker 4: the President had to say. The US, as he described it, 130 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:23,240 Speaker 4: has already achieved major military objectives. Iran was now willing 131 00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:27,640 Speaker 4: to negotiate seriously, and the ceasefire created that window for 132 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 4: what he called long term peace. The markets are also 133 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:37,720 Speaker 4: reacting immediately, oil prices plunging sharply in stock markets surged 134 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:41,880 Speaker 4: on optimism. That tells you everything about how close the 135 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:45,360 Speaker 4: world believed it was to a major escalation in this war. 136 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 4: But the situation, as you heard Laura Ingram describe it 137 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 4: when she spoke with a present, is still fragile. Despite 138 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:57,199 Speaker 4: this announcement, this is far from over. Missile alerts and 139 00:08:57,360 --> 00:09:02,160 Speaker 4: regional tensions are continuing even after to the ceasefire. Israel 140 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 4: has signal it may continue operations independently. Iran has warned 141 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 4: the war is not officially over as well, and the 142 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 4: demands on the table remain massive. Iran once sanctions lifted, 143 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 4: guarantees against future attacks, recognition of its right to enrich uranium. 144 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 4: Those are not small issues. Those are the kinds of 145 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 4: issues that can either lead to a historic deal or 146 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:31,280 Speaker 4: collapse the talks entirely. 147 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 3: And then there's the bigger picture. 148 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:36,880 Speaker 4: Yes, you have a war that's paused but has not ended, 149 00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:40,920 Speaker 4: both sides in essence agreeing to that. This ceasefire comes 150 00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 4: after nearly forty days of conflict already, it has left 151 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:49,439 Speaker 4: thousands dead, cost over one hundred billion dollars, and triggered 152 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 4: the largest energy disruption in decades. So what we're seeing 153 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 4: right now is clearly not peace. It is a strategic pause. 154 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 4: It is a moment where both sides are testing whether 155 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:06,280 Speaker 4: diplomacy can succeed, where military pressure nearly exploded into something 156 00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:10,560 Speaker 4: much bigger. So that is the reality this morning. The 157 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 4: Strait of Hormuz, as I'm recording this, is reopened. The 158 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:19,079 Speaker 4: bombs are for now staying on the ground, and the 159 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:22,560 Speaker 4: world is holding its breath, because in two weeks we're 160 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 4: going to find out whether this was the beginning of 161 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 4: peace or just a calm before the major storm. 162 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 3: Now, finally, let me also say one other thing. 163 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 4: The Strait of Hormoes reopening after Trump announces two week 164 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:40,400 Speaker 4: double side ceasefire is a huge moment. There's also the 165 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 4: reality that the President of United States of America understands 166 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:48,160 Speaker 4: you're dealing with a terish regime and Tehran can do 167 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 4: anything at any moment. 168 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:51,600 Speaker 3: To blow up this entire ceasefire. 169 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:54,360 Speaker 4: It's part of the reason why Israel may be going 170 00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 4: it alone for the next two weeks, continuing to go 171 00:10:57,280 --> 00:10:59,719 Speaker 4: after targets they believe are important to go after in 172 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 4: a rain. But what it also tells us is this, 173 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:08,120 Speaker 4: after the President spoke with Pakistan's Prime minister, he understood 174 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:11,560 Speaker 4: that there was at least now a real chance that 175 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:15,960 Speaker 4: the threat of a destructive attack on Iran was enough 176 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 4: to get them to the table. And if we can 177 00:11:19,320 --> 00:11:24,719 Speaker 4: get peace because of these negotiations, that's good for everyone involved. 178 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 4: I promise you this, We'll watch it closely for you 179 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:32,559 Speaker 4: and keep you updated on exactly what's happening moving forward. 180 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 2: Thank you for listening. To the forty seven Morning Update 181 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:39,679 Speaker 2: with Ben Ferguson. Please make sure you hit subscribe wherever 182 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 2: you're listening to this podcast right now and for more 183 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 2: in depth news, also subscribe to the Ben Ferguson podcast 184 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 2: and we will see you back here tomorrow