1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:02,960 Speaker 1: Good morning. 2 00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 2: It's Friday, the fifteenth of December here in London. This 3 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:08,560 Speaker 2: is the BlueBag debaate Uit podcast. I'm Caroline Hepkift. 4 00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 3: And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today, Europe's central bankers 5 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:13,840 Speaker 3: go their own way, with varing to keep rates higher 6 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 3: for longer as traders begin to plan for the Fed 7 00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 3: to cut. 8 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:21,880 Speaker 2: First Hungry veto's a new euaid package for Ukraine, leaving 9 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:25,120 Speaker 2: Kiev without new US or European support. 10 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:29,160 Speaker 3: And why Georgia Maloney and Rishie Sunak are facing controversy 11 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 3: over their respective plans to tackle migration. 12 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:34,239 Speaker 2: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories. 13 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:38,120 Speaker 3: Europe's central bankers have pushed back against market bets on 14 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 3: interest rate cuts as traders begin to align to a 15 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 3: timetable where the Federal Reserve reduces borrowing costs. First Bank 16 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 3: of England Governor Andrew Bailey batted away questions about a 17 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:49,560 Speaker 3: change in policy in the UK. 18 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:53,519 Speaker 4: We've seen an unwinding of many of the shocks that 19 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 4: we had, the big shocks that we had last year, 20 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 4: particularly related to the war in Ukraine and Song. But 21 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 4: there is this persistent element to it which we've got 22 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 4: to take out so my view at the moment is 23 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 4: it's really too early to start speculating about cutting interest rates. 24 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 4: We've got to see more progress. 25 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:13,600 Speaker 3: A third of Bailey's Monetary Policy Committee even voted for 26 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 3: a hike in yesterday's decision. They see the UK's tight 27 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 3: labor market setting it apart from the US. 28 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:23,399 Speaker 2: Meanwhile, the European Central Bank president says that policymakers should 29 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:26,679 Speaker 2: not lower their guard in the fight to bring down inflation. 30 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 2: Christine Leaguard spoke after the ECB kept its deposit rate 31 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 2: at a record four percent in yesterday's meeting. 32 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 1: We did not discuss rate cuts at all, no discussion, 33 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:43,560 Speaker 1: no debate on this issue. And I think everybody in 34 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 1: the room takes the view that between hike and cut 35 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 1: there's a whole plateau, whole beach off hold. You know, 36 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 1: it's like I don't know solid liquid gazz if you 37 00:01:57,440 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 1: don't go from lick from solid to guzz with going 38 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 1: through the liquid face. 39 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 2: Christine Legard's words come as bloomberg with Paul's ECB policymakers 40 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:12,359 Speaker 2: are united in expecting to cut rates later than markets anticipate, 41 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 2: but trade to still see some one hundred and fifty 42 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:17,359 Speaker 2: bases points of ECB cuts next year. 43 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 3: Hungary has blocked a new fifty billion euro EU financial 44 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 3: aid package for Ukraine. The twenty six other European Union 45 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 3: leaders had supported the deal. At a meeting which ended 46 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 3: in the early hours of this morning, European Council President 47 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 3: Charl Michel says they'll pick up discussions on the matter 48 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 3: in twenty twenty four. 49 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:38,680 Speaker 5: We will revert to this matter early next year and 50 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 5: we will try to get unanimity in the too reach 51 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:45,600 Speaker 5: possible for us to implement this. 52 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:48,640 Speaker 3: Shama shall also stress the need for unity on the 53 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 3: issue among member states. The news comes after EU leaders 54 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:55,720 Speaker 3: agreed to open discussions on Ukraine's membership. That was after 55 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 3: Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, who's a vocal opponent of 56 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 3: Kiev's accession, did not participate in the decision. 57 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 2: Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin is vowing to achieve victory in Ukraine. 58 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:10,679 Speaker 2: Speaking in Moscow on Thursday, the leader outlined his targets 59 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 2: in the region. 60 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 6: The piece will come when we reach our guls that 61 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 6: you have mentioned, and coming back to the guls they 62 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:28,240 Speaker 6: remain unchanged. I will remind you the natification, the militarization 63 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 6: of Ukraine and its neutral status. 64 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 2: President Putin there speaking via a translator. The address marks 65 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 2: his first end of year news conference since the conflict 66 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 2: began nearly two years ago. US intelligence now estimates that 67 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 2: Russia's total troop losses from the war are three hundred 68 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 2: and fifteen thousand since February twenty twenty two. The Kremlin 69 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 2: leader plans to stand for re election also in March 70 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. Officials are aiming to portray Putin's widely 71 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 2: expect victory as an endorsement of his war in Ukraine. 72 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 3: China Central Bank has injected a record amount of cash 73 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 3: as the economy falters. PBOC offered lenders an eight hundred 74 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 3: billion yuan boost in one year loans, more than twice 75 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:16,560 Speaker 3: the amount seen by analysts in a Bloomberg survey. It's 76 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 3: a move that will give banks more money to buy 77 00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 3: government bonds. Economic activity was not great in November, as 78 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:24,839 Speaker 3: retail sales missed estimates and the housing market is continuing 79 00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 3: to decline in terms of prices, sales and investment. 80 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 2: Now, Bloomberg has learned that City Group is to close 81 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 2: its municipal bond business. It's one of the most dramatic 82 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:39,280 Speaker 2: moves yet by the chief executive, Jane Fraser, as she 83 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:42,159 Speaker 2: looks to squeeze better returns out of the Wall Street giant. 84 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 2: The bank has decided the business, which has tumbled in 85 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:49,479 Speaker 2: the rankings for underwriting state and local debt, is quote 86 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:54,159 Speaker 2: no longer viable. Bloomberg Sally Bakewell says it's a shocking 87 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 2: full from Grace. 88 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 7: City was an absolute powerhouse in this four trillion market 89 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 7: for US state and for local debt. It helped on 90 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 7: deals for some very prominent buildings and landmarks, such as 91 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:09,800 Speaker 7: the World Trade Center, rebuilding the Port Authority of New 92 00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 7: York and New Jersey. 93 00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:15,360 Speaker 2: Bake Well's team say that, according to top executives, that 94 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:19,159 Speaker 2: move will affect about one hundred employees. In a moment, 95 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 2: a fifty billion euro aid package for Ukraine remains blocked 96 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:26,719 Speaker 2: by Hungary. We're going to discuss the European leader's summit 97 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:32,600 Speaker 2: with Bloomberg's John Fulane, our European government editor. But something 98 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 2: a bit light. It is Friday, after all, after all, 99 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 2: forget leaves on the line. There was a bull on 100 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:41,520 Speaker 2: the line in New Jersey in the United States. I 101 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:45,920 Speaker 2: hasten to add, not anywhere in Europe. And so perhaps 102 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:48,080 Speaker 2: this is a metaphor for what has been happening in 103 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 2: markets throughout this week. 104 00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 5: It was the story. 105 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:53,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, perhaps, I mean, certainly a lot of balls 106 00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 3: to be found yesterday in parts of the market too. 107 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:57,720 Speaker 3: But I mean, I'm just imagining the text mesags people 108 00:05:57,720 --> 00:06:01,040 Speaker 3: were sending home on their commutes, saying, sorry, train delayed. 109 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:03,839 Speaker 3: There's a bull cattle cattle. 110 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:05,560 Speaker 2: On the line. Yeah, apparently you need Jersey chance it 111 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 2: say that everything's back to normal. But they had to 112 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 2: put out I think they tweeted out the photographs obviously, 113 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 2: otherwise no one would have believed them, right. 114 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 3: Okay, well, let's turn back to those big central bank 115 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:20,960 Speaker 3: decisions as we are, of course digesting the week that 116 00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:24,360 Speaker 3: has seen a pivot from the Fed, but European central 117 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:28,159 Speaker 3: bankers not in any rush to start cutting interest rates 118 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 3: after yesterday's decisions. We also have the first PMI readings 119 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:33,240 Speaker 3: this morning for December from France, Germany, the Eurozone and 120 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:35,920 Speaker 3: the UK. We've got our chief europe economist Jamie Rush 121 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:38,719 Speaker 3: with us this morning to explain. Jamie, let's start with 122 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:43,760 Speaker 3: the decision from the ECB. How much or how little 123 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,560 Speaker 3: did Christine Le Guard and company open the door to 124 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:47,240 Speaker 3: rate cuts. 125 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:53,160 Speaker 8: Well, they tried a valiant fight back against market pricing, 126 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:57,039 Speaker 8: but I don't think they really succeeded. Sadly. The lesson 127 00:06:57,160 --> 00:07:02,280 Speaker 8: is that when Powell speaks, markets listen. When the guard 128 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 8: or Bailey speak, they don't really, So it's what do 129 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:08,039 Speaker 8: we see? Was she kind of she pushed back against 130 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 8: the idea of the benny near term cuts she ruled 131 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:13,239 Speaker 8: out or she said that they did not speak about 132 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 8: cutting interest rates, and she did kind of flag The 133 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:19,120 Speaker 8: thing I thought was quite clever, was she kind of 134 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:22,120 Speaker 8: she she identified some data that they needed that would 135 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 8: only be available after one queue, so wages data profits 136 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:31,440 Speaker 8: data that lands later. So I think markets are currently 137 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:36,560 Speaker 8: pricing the first hike fully priced is in April. Our 138 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 8: forecast is that that will happen in June, but it 139 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 8: wouldn't take a huge surprise for that to be brought forward. 140 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 8: So we'll see what happens with the GDP data, we'll 141 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 8: see what happens with with inflation, and as said, as 142 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 8: possible to be seen. 143 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:52,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, I mean, what did we learn from the 144 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 2: quarterly projections from from the view from the ECBA, Well. 145 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:01,720 Speaker 8: They're kind of reasonably optimistic on growth. They don't see 146 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:05,560 Speaker 8: any any contraction going ahead there so of there's room 147 00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:08,280 Speaker 8: in the forecast therefore for if it comes if we 148 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:11,360 Speaker 8: see a weaker performance than that and the economy slips 149 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:13,520 Speaker 8: into recession, and they could obviously point to that and 150 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 8: say that that's a good reason to accelerate the high 151 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 8: ki the cutting cycle. So and we also know that 152 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 8: the inflation numbers are going to come down pretty they're 153 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:25,440 Speaker 8: going to go back up, but they're going to go 154 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 8: down pretty steeply in the first quarter. So again there's 155 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:32,200 Speaker 8: nothing really constraining the ECB. Inflation is not that bad 156 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:36,559 Speaker 8: in the Eurzone. They could cut pretty much anytime in 157 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:38,480 Speaker 8: the first half if they wanted to. They'll just need 158 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:39,679 Speaker 8: to find a motivation for it. 159 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:43,079 Speaker 3: What was it about the bond buying program, Jamie that 160 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 3: we should be paying attention to. This is the pandemic 161 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:47,440 Speaker 3: era bond buying program PEP. 162 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:51,959 Speaker 8: So the thing about PEP was that they needed to 163 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 8: make a decision about it, or they felt the need 164 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:58,080 Speaker 8: to make a decision about it before starting talking about 165 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 8: interest rate policy. So so it kind of has opened 166 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 8: the door to or has created some bandwidth for them 167 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:08,400 Speaker 8: to start thinking about interest rates. The pet program is 168 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:11,840 Speaker 8: going to be wound down pretty slowly over the second 169 00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:14,680 Speaker 8: half of next year. That's going to create a little 170 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:17,959 Speaker 8: bit of pressure on government to still likely to be 171 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:21,240 Speaker 8: issuing quite a bit of debt then, but it's not 172 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:23,720 Speaker 8: a game changer, and they've still got other tools they 173 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:25,480 Speaker 8: can use if that everything falls a part. 174 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 2: Yes, And when it comes to the new data that 175 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 2: we have out of Europe today, what do you expect 176 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:34,359 Speaker 2: for the PMI readings. 177 00:09:35,840 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 8: Well, the pmis have been showing kind of a general 178 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 8: picture of broad stabilization of the outlook. That's what we've 179 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 8: seen over the past few months. They have been sort 180 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:46,679 Speaker 8: of flatish in quite depressed territory, but a little bit 181 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:49,560 Speaker 8: of flat with a little bit of improvement last month. 182 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 8: So we'll were looking to see if that improvement is sustained. 183 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:56,120 Speaker 8: If it is, that auld point to the outlook evolving 184 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 8: as the ECB expects. If instead we see this, you know, 185 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:02,439 Speaker 8: the worst thing of the pmis, that would be a 186 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:06,679 Speaker 8: sign that the economy is heading into something more and 187 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:10,280 Speaker 8: more protracted down to perhaps than the ECB is expecting. 188 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:13,720 Speaker 8: So they'll be important and that they will be quite 189 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 8: a key element to be watching over the next few 190 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 8: months as we think about what the ECB. 191 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 9: Is going to be doing. 192 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 3: Jimmy, can you help us tie together the center bank 193 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,760 Speaker 3: decisions that we've had this week? We were it was 194 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 3: a blockbuster lineup. We were waiting to see if this 195 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 3: was going to be the start of a global monetary pivot. 196 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:31,520 Speaker 3: Is what we've learned at the end of this week 197 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 3: that actually it's just a US monetary pivot. 198 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:37,199 Speaker 8: Well, I think that's what we've learned for now. I 199 00:10:37,320 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 8: don't think that there's a good chance that that narrative 200 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:45,079 Speaker 8: isn't sustained though, as we heard Legard Bailey both pushed 201 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:48,680 Speaker 8: back on market pricing and didn't really succeed in that endeavor. 202 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:52,200 Speaker 8: So attitudes of course could change on the Governing Council 203 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:54,480 Speaker 8: and on the Management Policy Committee over the next few months, 204 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:56,599 Speaker 8: and we could easily see that that pivot does in 205 00:10:56,679 --> 00:10:59,360 Speaker 8: fact still take place. But I think the main point though, 206 00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 8: is that they both central banks are probably going to 207 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:04,959 Speaker 8: be a little bit delayed relative to the FED. So 208 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 8: the fake jos in March, I wouldn't expect the CB 209 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:08,319 Speaker 8: in the bank to go at the same time. 210 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 2: Okay, good stuff, Jenmie, thank you so much for being 211 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:14,680 Speaker 2: with us this morning, Bluebass Chief europe economist Jamie Rush. 212 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 3: Well, let's take you to Italy for our next story 213 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 3: and the waters of the Albanian resort town sheng Jin 214 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:28,040 Speaker 3: haven for tourists in search of Mediterranean scenery at bargain prices, 215 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 3: and if Italian Prime Minister Georgia Maloney gets her way, 216 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 3: they'll soon be joined by as many as thirty six 217 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:37,000 Speaker 3: thousand migrants as Rome tries to reroute asylum seekers from 218 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 3: its shores. It's a controversial immigration policy that has echoes 219 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 3: of the controversy facing the British Prime Minister Richie Sunac 220 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:47,199 Speaker 3: as well. Ritchie Sunac is attending, along with the billionaire 221 00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:50,319 Speaker 3: Elon Musk, a four day political event hosted by Georgia 222 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 3: Maloney's Brothers of Italy party this weekend. Joining us now 223 00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:57,959 Speaker 3: is Alessandra Migliaccio in Rome. Alessandra, good morning to you. 224 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:01,959 Speaker 3: Immigration is a significant, even a tutanic issue in many 225 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:04,560 Speaker 3: countries in Europe. What is Georgia Maloney's plan? 226 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:11,199 Speaker 10: Good morning, Yes, Georgia Maloney. Basically, as many analysts have 227 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 10: told us, she's creating a problem that really, in a 228 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:17,240 Speaker 10: country like Italy doesn't exist. But we need more immigration 229 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:21,040 Speaker 10: because Italy has a demographic crisis, and she's finding solutions 230 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:25,760 Speaker 10: to the problem, rather bizarre and possibly illegal solutions, but 231 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 10: it's doing you know, enormous good to her ratings because 232 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 10: people feel like she's trying to act and because it's unusual, 233 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 10: let's put it that way, you know, it has it 234 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:39,440 Speaker 10: gets all the more attention in other countries are looking too, 235 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 10: because well, I mean, we do know, as you said, 236 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:45,839 Speaker 10: that has tried to do something somewhat similar with Rowan 237 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:49,160 Speaker 10: that he's still struggling with that as well. And now 238 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:51,679 Speaker 10: it's Milooney's turn, and she's proposing Alvinia, which is a 239 00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:55,319 Speaker 10: country near by, and who was what they will talk about, 240 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:59,200 Speaker 10: you know, when he comes to Italy, possibly about maybe 241 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 10: sending some of England's migrants to Abi. 242 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:07,959 Speaker 2: Yes, but how much opposition does Maloney face me, both 243 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:10,119 Speaker 2: in her own parliament and also in Albania. 244 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 4: She does in. 245 00:13:12,880 --> 00:13:15,439 Speaker 10: Italy she does have a very strong majority, although of 246 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:21,600 Speaker 10: course many many people have complained. Humanitarian organizations complain basically legally, 247 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:25,520 Speaker 10: it doesn't make much sense also because you can't because 248 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:29,440 Speaker 10: of laws on people Rasia and you can't send anyone, 249 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 10: so they would have to separate the women, for example, 250 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:36,760 Speaker 10: and children from the men. Essentially, you'd just be sending 251 00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 10: the men on their own without their families. You'd be 252 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 10: separating families. So then you're in another situation that's possibly 253 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 10: i legal, et cetera, et cetera. In Albania, it's facing 254 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 10: a much more opposition. The President of Albania will also 255 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:52,839 Speaker 10: be in Italy this weekend. Is all for it, but 256 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:56,280 Speaker 10: the courts have said that they need to think about 257 00:13:56,320 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 10: this and they temporarily stop people from parliament. Parliament will 258 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:03,959 Speaker 10: not people in Albania to immediately improve this. They have 259 00:14:04,120 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 10: to see if indeed it is legal, because you are 260 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:09,440 Speaker 10: creating an on club that will be managed by Italians 261 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:12,480 Speaker 10: inside Albania, and it is absolutely not certain that that 262 00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 10: is a lot So there's a lot points to this thing. 263 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:18,880 Speaker 10: Maybe never happening, but at least you know politically she 264 00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 10: looks good to her voters. 265 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 3: This is all happening as Richie Siak and Georgie Maloni 266 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 3: are going to be meeting this weekend at this political festival. 267 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:30,720 Speaker 3: Elon Musk is also attending. What's the goal of this event? 268 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 3: What does Georgia Malone want to show? 269 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:36,600 Speaker 10: I mean, I think it's just political. We're looking at 270 00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 10: her pen elections coming up. She wants to show that 271 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:43,280 Speaker 10: she it's a party conference, it's been going on for 272 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 10: more than twenty years, so it's something they do. But 273 00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 10: she knows that in this case she can get people 274 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 10: like Elon Musk and we just do not to come. 275 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:55,360 Speaker 10: Then she's elevating it to a higher level. It becomes 276 00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:57,560 Speaker 10: more of a European issue or work global with it, 277 00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:00,920 Speaker 10: but must really and he also wants top about demographics 278 00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:03,680 Speaker 10: Europe and that will give her visibility. We'll put her 279 00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 10: in a position where she is no longer a strange, 280 00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 10: possibly fascist outsider on our right, but she's much more of, 281 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 10: you know, a center right politician, that is, someone who 282 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 10: could maybe need the European right in parliamentary elections that 283 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:21,760 Speaker 10: are coming up next year. 284 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 2: Okay, Alisandra, thank you so much for being with us. 285 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:31,840 Speaker 2: Alessandra Migliaccio. There are Western Europe Economy correspondent taking us 286 00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 2: through her deep dive into Georgia Maloney and another controversial 287 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:40,840 Speaker 2: migration plan, you know, trying to send some asylum seekers 288 00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 2: to Albania facing opposition though. 289 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:46,280 Speaker 3: The European Union leaders will reconvene for their last summit 290 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:49,280 Speaker 3: of the year today on Thursday, they were unable to 291 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 3: agree on a new financial aid package for Ukraine, but 292 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 3: unexpectedly agreed to open membership talks with Kiev joining us. 293 00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:59,040 Speaker 3: Now for the latest is John Felner, European Government Editor, John. 294 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:02,160 Speaker 3: Good morning to you. So Hungary abstained on the vote 295 00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:05,640 Speaker 3: allowing the membership talks to be opened with Ukraine, but 296 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:08,080 Speaker 3: it used its viso over the aid package. 297 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:12,800 Speaker 9: What happened, Yes, good morning, it's quite quite an extraordinary scene. 298 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:15,120 Speaker 9: And basically it was an idea by the German Chancellor 299 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 9: Ola Schaltz that the Hungarian premier before all basically leave 300 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 9: the room to enable the decision on the start of 301 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:30,080 Speaker 9: the membership talks to be accepted by the EU leaders 302 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 9: because it does require unanimous approval, that tactic seems to 303 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:40,720 Speaker 9: be almost unprecedented. It was not used for the budget. 304 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 9: So the decision in the end was to postpone the 305 00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:50,800 Speaker 9: talks and agreement on the financial aid package for Ukraine 306 00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:56,960 Speaker 9: into January, the reason being that it's part of negotiations 307 00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:00,560 Speaker 9: over the long term EU budget and that White or 308 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 9: Ban is holding out on it. 309 00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:05,280 Speaker 2: One of the means, okay, is there a chance that 310 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:10,280 Speaker 2: other leaders could convince Victor Orban to change his mind. 311 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:14,000 Speaker 9: Somehow well, look im in the backdrop to this is, 312 00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 9: of course or bands very close relations with Vladimir Proutine 313 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 9: and there's not much that the leaders can do about that, 314 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 9: at least in the short term. So there will be negotiation, 315 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:28,360 Speaker 9: there will be wrangling on the budget. One possible plan 316 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:33,400 Speaker 9: B is for the other leaders, the leaders the twenty six, 317 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 9: apart from excluding all bands, to go ahead on their 318 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:40,439 Speaker 9: own and work out a bilateral way of getting them 319 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:41,600 Speaker 9: the A package. 320 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 3: Through the Ukraine John what does this tell us about 321 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:51,400 Speaker 3: support for Ukraine in the European Union present? Vlasimirre Zelensky 322 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:55,240 Speaker 3: looks to be struggling militarily but also diplomatically to get 323 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:56,960 Speaker 3: the international support that he's seeking. 324 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:02,880 Speaker 9: Well, the package is a very bad look, obviously, given 325 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:05,680 Speaker 9: what's also happening in the US with the money being 326 00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 9: stalled there. So we're going into the new year with 327 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:12,679 Speaker 9: both the US and the EU kicky allies of Ukraine 328 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:18,240 Speaker 9: of course, not managing to deliver on the constant, constantly 329 00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:24,400 Speaker 9: repeated pledge that we'll do whatever it takes. The positive 330 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 9: sign is, of course, the agreement on starting the membership talks, 331 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:31,120 Speaker 9: but even that that's not going to happen until March. 332 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:36,240 Speaker 9: It's got a huge symbolic value, but in the practicalities 333 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:39,320 Speaker 9: that it's going to take years of negotiation. The last 334 00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:43,280 Speaker 9: member to join the EU, Croatia, the process took ten years. 335 00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:47,639 Speaker 2: Yeah, indeed, And so what about the other countries in 336 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 2: the Western Balkans, We've also been in the process for 337 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 2: many are their concerns that Ukraine's membership will end up 338 00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:56,000 Speaker 2: perhaps leap frogging theirs. 339 00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:00,600 Speaker 9: Well, I mean there's a concern that is concerned that 340 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:04,119 Speaker 9: it's not that the process is not fair in the 341 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 9: sense that obviously there are the preferences as to who 342 00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:10,879 Speaker 9: should should go ahead first or not. But the E 343 00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:14,640 Speaker 9: leaders did did agree to open menision talks with Moldova, 344 00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,159 Speaker 9: and they did grant candidate staces to Georgia. So that's 345 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:20,639 Speaker 9: all that's all going to keep keep going. But obviously 346 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 9: it's very very much tied to the situation the rule 347 00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:27,119 Speaker 9: of law in each of these countries, progress on reforms 348 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 9: which are essential for the EU. 349 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 3: And as you say, it's a very long process and 350 00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 3: many of those countries have been in it for even 351 00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:38,240 Speaker 3: longer than a decade as well. At the same time, John, 352 00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:43,400 Speaker 3: we heard also from Vladimir Putin yesterday his usual marathon 353 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:48,879 Speaker 3: news conference, returning very much sticking to his mantras around 354 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:52,240 Speaker 3: the attitudes to Ukraine. How how is that being viewed 355 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:53,600 Speaker 3: in Brussels. 356 00:19:55,520 --> 00:20:00,200 Speaker 9: Well, it's it's it's provoking frustration and consternation among any 357 00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:04,320 Speaker 9: because because of the failure of the of the EU 358 00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:09,119 Speaker 9: to show that it is unanimous in backing in backing Ukraine, 359 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:12,479 Speaker 9: especially when the counter offensive is stalling. 360 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:18,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, the leaders are going to also go on though, 361 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:24,080 Speaker 2: to discuss not just Ukraine, but other conflicts, other issues today, 362 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 2: including the Irahamas war. Again, is there is there a 363 00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:33,159 Speaker 2: unanimity on the EU's view on this and how to 364 00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:36,119 Speaker 2: how to deal with this enormous challenge too. 365 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 9: Well, the the EU laid various divisions right at the 366 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 9: start just after October seventh went and there was there 367 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:48,280 Speaker 9: was different positions on on on what to do with 368 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:53,880 Speaker 9: with Palestinian aid. There are also different positions on whether 369 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:57,639 Speaker 9: laver pols pauses se spires, which we've seen in the 370 00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:02,200 Speaker 9: past few weeks, so that's expected to be owned out, 371 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:06,640 Speaker 9: possibly with a more general statement. We've also seen agreement 372 00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:10,600 Speaker 9: by eun Voice on the twelfth package of sanctions on Russia. 373 00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 9: And we're also expecting talks today on migration. But that's 374 00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:20,120 Speaker 9: a very very long term, very divisive issue in which 375 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:22,480 Speaker 9: country is like it to be on the front line 376 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 9: or which are which are receiving many migrants from across 377 00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:30,359 Speaker 9: the Mediterranean. Keep a feeling for solidarity, for help with returns, 378 00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:33,960 Speaker 9: for help with dealing with the Assiglent process. But that's 379 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 9: a very contorted issue for the leaders. 380 00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:42,119 Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the 381 00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:45,200 Speaker 3: stories making news from London to Wall Streets and beyond. 382 00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:48,720 Speaker 2: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, 383 00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,480 Speaker 2: Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 384 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:54,639 Speaker 3: You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio, 385 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:56,959 Speaker 3: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. 386 00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,199 Speaker 2: Our flagship New York station is also available on your 387 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:04,879 Speaker 2: Amazon Alexa devices. 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