WEBVTT - Saigon, 1965

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<v Speaker 1>Pushkin.

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<v Speaker 2>After we got married, we got an apartment on Hibachung,

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<v Speaker 2>near the Tending Market. It's not the best part of town,

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<v Speaker 2>but not the worst either. Very lively, bustling, noisy area.

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<v Speaker 3>That's my Elliot. She lives outside of Los Angeles now,

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<v Speaker 3>a graceful, elegant, middle aged woman. She's talking about her

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<v Speaker 3>life in Saigon in the early nineteen sixties, the first

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<v Speaker 3>days of the Vietnam War.

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<v Speaker 2>I had an apartment of my own. You know, life

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<v Speaker 2>couldn't have been better, I thought.

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<v Speaker 3>My name is Malcolm Glaubla. Welcome to Revisionist History, where

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<v Speaker 3>every week we go back and look at something misunderstood

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<v Speaker 3>or overlooked. This week's episode is about a secret Pentagon

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<v Speaker 3>study that a Vietnamese woman named May Elliott and two

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<v Speaker 3>others became tangled up in and what happened when it ended,

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<v Speaker 3>because there's a lot we can learn from them today.

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<v Speaker 3>The project was run by the Rand Corporation, a think

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<v Speaker 3>tank based in Santa Monica, California, home to an extraordinary

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<v Speaker 3>collection of intellectuals and thinkers and policy wonks. RAND is

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<v Speaker 3>the kind of place where everyone speaks in complete paragraphs,

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<v Speaker 3>and if you close your eyes as you listen. You

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<v Speaker 3>can almost see the footnotes at the end of each

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<v Speaker 3>one of those perfect paragraphs. The Defense Department were alatting

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<v Speaker 3>them heavily in those years. Still does tell me about

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<v Speaker 3>how you come to work for RAND.

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<v Speaker 2>Dave knew somebody McVie who was an officer, a graduate student.

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<v Speaker 3>Dave is Ma's husband, an American academic. McVie stands for

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<v Speaker 3>a military Assistants Command of Vietnam Headquarters for the Vietnam War.

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<v Speaker 2>So anyway, Dave knew this guy who was also a

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<v Speaker 2>graduate student doing his military stint, and his wife, an American,

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<v Speaker 2>was working at RAND.

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<v Speaker 3>My Elliott is Vietnamese and she ends up working at

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<v Speaker 3>Randon Saigon for a man named Leon Garray, one of

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<v Speaker 3>Rand's most brilliant academics. He ran the Secret Study and

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<v Speaker 3>he's a big part of this story. Here's an interview

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<v Speaker 3>Rand recorded with Garray just before he died in two

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<v Speaker 3>thousand and seven.

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<v Speaker 2>And how did you end up getting into Vietnam?

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<v Speaker 4>I got drafted. Well, I was semi volunteered, but I

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<v Speaker 4>got drafted. The Chief of Air Force Intelligence asked me

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<v Speaker 4>to go.

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<v Speaker 3>Garray set up shop in an old French style villain

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<v Speaker 3>near the Presidential Palace in downtown Saigon, one seventy six

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<v Speaker 3>Rue Pasteur. The house is still there, flame trees and

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<v Speaker 3>tamarin line, the street quiet, discreet. This was in nineteen

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<v Speaker 3>sixty four, just when Saigon was beginning to fall apart. Still,

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<v Speaker 3>if you were a Westerner, you might go to the

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<v Speaker 3>exclusive Cerx sportif on the humid afternoons, to sit by

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<v Speaker 3>the pool or by tennis, or have a cocktail in

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<v Speaker 3>the veranda of the Continental Hotel. Maybe you'd hear a

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<v Speaker 3>bomb or two oft in the distance. Later, of course,

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<v Speaker 3>things would get far worse.

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<v Speaker 4>The house we lived in in Saigon was directly under

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<v Speaker 4>the trajectory of the rockets that they yet congo firing

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<v Speaker 4>at the palace, so we had a greative experience of

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<v Speaker 4>ducking under the dining room table.

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<v Speaker 3>Gray had been working in the Santa Monica office of

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<v Speaker 3>RAND when he was summoned to Vietnam. It was a

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<v Speaker 3>job no one really wanted. Who would leave southern California

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<v Speaker 3>for Saigon. The Pentagon wanted him to run a project

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<v Speaker 3>interviewing Vietcong prisoners and defectors. Jumped at the chance.

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<v Speaker 4>I had to organize my own team of Vietnamese we

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<v Speaker 4>were producing interview reports or interrogation reports for the US,

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<v Speaker 4>for Rand and for the Chief of the Intelligence of

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<v Speaker 4>the Vietnamese ARA Forces. They all got copies.

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<v Speaker 3>Later, Leongerrey got into trouble, or at least into an argument,

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<v Speaker 3>and Rand brought in a third person to fix things,

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<v Speaker 3>Conrad Kellen.

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<v Speaker 5>I was supposed to be in Doctor Nathan by Leon Golray.

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<v Speaker 5>He was supposed to tell me about Vietnam. But I

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<v Speaker 5>got very quickly the feeling that he was extremely partisan,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, for the for the South, which of course

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<v Speaker 5>was part of the show.

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<v Speaker 3>That woman's voice, you hear, that's my Elliott again. She

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<v Speaker 3>interviewed Kellen in Santa Monica after he retired from RAND

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<v Speaker 3>for a history she wrote called Rand in Southeast Asia,

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<v Speaker 3>a History of the Vietnam War, A brilliant book.

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<v Speaker 5>By the way, he was sort of mister Vietnam at Rand,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, and missed the saus Vietnam, and I sort

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<v Speaker 5>of became his sort of successor in a way.

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<v Speaker 3>The story that follows is about these three people, May

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<v Speaker 3>Elliott leungar Ray Conrad Kellen, and how their lives intersected

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<v Speaker 3>over a minor and forgotten episode in the Vietnam War

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<v Speaker 3>called the Vietcong Motivation and Morale Project. I say minor

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<v Speaker 3>because what happened in that French villa on one seven

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<v Speaker 3>six Rue Pastor didn't swing the war one way or another.

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<v Speaker 3>Nobody who was part of the study ever fired a

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<v Speaker 3>gun or dropped a bomb. But the story of the

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<v Speaker 3>Morale Project says a lot about something that has obsessed

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<v Speaker 3>us ever since intelligence failure. Why is it so hard

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<v Speaker 3>to tell what your enemy is thinking? That question came

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<v Speaker 3>up after nine to eleven during the Two Gulf Wars,

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<v Speaker 3>It came up again in Afghanistan in It comes up

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<v Speaker 3>today with ISIS. And every time we get it wrong,

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<v Speaker 3>every time our enemies take us by surprise, we always say,

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<v Speaker 3>if only we knew more about them, If only we

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<v Speaker 3>had more information about our adversaries, more spies in the ground,

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<v Speaker 3>more satellite images, more intercepted communications, more of everything. Do

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<v Speaker 3>you know how many federal government organizations there are just

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<v Speaker 3>devoted to counterterrorism? Twelve hundred and seventy one and another

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<v Speaker 3>nineteen hundred and thirty one private companies. Do you know

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<v Speaker 3>how many Americans hold top secret security clearances? Eight hundred

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<v Speaker 3>and fifty four thousand. Those numbers all come from an

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<v Speaker 3>extraordinary washed and post investigation from six years ago. And

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<v Speaker 3>here's the most incredible statistic of all. Just since nine

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<v Speaker 3>to eleven, just to Howe's top secret intelligence work, and

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<v Speaker 3>just in the Washington, DC area, seventeen million square feet

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<v Speaker 3>of new office space has been built to house intelligence operations.

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<v Speaker 3>Seventeen million. We want to know everything about our enemies.

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<v Speaker 3>But what the viet Cong Motivation and Morale Project tells

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<v Speaker 3>us is this, you can know everything there is to

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<v Speaker 3>know about your enemy, everything, and that still won't solve

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<v Speaker 3>your problem. Vietnam was a French colony from eighteen eighty

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<v Speaker 3>seven until nineteen fifty four. Then the French lost control

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<v Speaker 3>of the country. It was split in half. Communists took

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<v Speaker 3>over the north, an American backed regime came into power

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<v Speaker 3>in the south. Over the next decade, conditions inside South

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<v Speaker 3>Vietnam slowly deteriorated. The government was unpopular, they were protests

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<v Speaker 3>in the streets, a military coup, and the North Vietnamese

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<v Speaker 3>started setting guerrillas known as the Viet Coong over the

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<v Speaker 3>border to try and recruit South Vietnamese to their cause.

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<v Speaker 3>That's why the Vietnam War at least the US and

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<v Speaker 3>there starts in the nearly nineteen sixties because the United

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<v Speaker 3>States feels compelled to help the South turn back the.

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<v Speaker 1>Via con.

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<v Speaker 3>Wars are usually about territory. A country X invades country

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<v Speaker 3>Y country why fights back? But this is a weird

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<v Speaker 3>kind of war. The US and the South Vietnamese have

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<v Speaker 3>no intention of invading the North. They decide instead that

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<v Speaker 3>they'll just bomb the North Vietnamese until they give up,

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<v Speaker 3>until they realize that exporting gorillas over the border isn't

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<v Speaker 3>worth it. The Vietnam War is a war of persuasion,

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<v Speaker 3>a crude kind of persuasion. The goal is to break

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<v Speaker 3>the other side's will.

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<v Speaker 2>The new theory is that revolutionary development may look good

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<v Speaker 2>on paper, but.

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<v Speaker 6>Nothing pacifies quite like old fashioned military might.

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<v Speaker 4>And alive horse of more than eight thousand men.

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<v Speaker 2>Today Titans hold on a Batangan peninsula on South Vietnam

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<v Speaker 2>central coast.

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<v Speaker 3>But if your goal is to break someone's will, how

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<v Speaker 3>do you know if his strategy is working? In the

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<v Speaker 3>earth early nineteen sixties, when the US first starts sending

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<v Speaker 3>troops to fight the Viatkong, there was a problem. No

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<v Speaker 3>one knew anything about the Viat Coong. Almost known of

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<v Speaker 3>the Pentagon or the State Department even spoke Vietnamese. The

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<v Speaker 3>special advisor to the American General in South Vietnam at

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<v Speaker 3>the time was an Australian called Colonel Sarong. And you

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<v Speaker 3>know what he said. I'll quote him directly. These people

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<v Speaker 3>are simply what we call in many countries juvenile delinquents.

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<v Speaker 3>That's the best he could offer in terms of intelligence

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<v Speaker 3>about the Viet Kong. So what do you do if

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<v Speaker 3>you're bombing someone you know nothing about and you want

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<v Speaker 3>to know how this unknown person feels. You call in

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<v Speaker 3>the Rand Corporation. So Rand rents Sevilla on Ruepasteur and

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<v Speaker 3>brings in Leon Garray to run the show. Gray was

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<v Speaker 3>Russian by birth. His family history was remarkable. His parents

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<v Speaker 3>were Mensheviks. The Mensheviks were the socialist moderates who split

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<v Speaker 3>off from Lenin during the Bloshebic Revolution.

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<v Speaker 6>They were in Russia during the revolution.

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<v Speaker 3>This is Leon Garrey's son, Daniel. He's a national security

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<v Speaker 3>and policy expert with the Lexington Institute in Arlington, Virginia.

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<v Speaker 6>They participated in the revolution. In fact, my grandparents met

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<v Speaker 6>in prison. My grandmother used to smoke unfiltered cigarettes and

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<v Speaker 6>a little holder and cut them in half.

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<v Speaker 3>They were living in Moscow.

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<v Speaker 6>Are at Moscow, Yeah, are at Moscow, and they were,

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<v Speaker 6>you know, fighting the system. He my grandfather ran an

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<v Speaker 6>I legal printing press and the whole thing.

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<v Speaker 3>In nineteen twenty two, just after Leon is born, the

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<v Speaker 3>Garrays are kicked out of the country.

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<v Speaker 6>They ended up next in Berlin, and in nineteen thirty

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<v Speaker 6>three they shut the doors, locked the building up and left,

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<v Speaker 6>just walked away and went to Paris. And then they

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<v Speaker 6>got out of Paris on the same train that Humphrey

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<v Speaker 6>Bogart did in Castle Blanca, heading south and meandered south,

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<v Speaker 6>went through Spain to Portugal and then got to the

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<v Speaker 6>US after that. So they stayed on one step ahead

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<v Speaker 6>of the tide of evil for about almost twenty years. Wow.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, which of the bolsheviksty He must have known some

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<v Speaker 3>of the in person.

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<v Speaker 6>Oh, he knew Albin person if they knew Trotsky, they

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<v Speaker 6>knew Lenin, they knew Stalin, they knew the whole, the

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<v Speaker 6>whole crowd. Man, Your left is royalty, Yeah right.

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<v Speaker 3>The Grays end up in New York City, ninety sixth

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<v Speaker 3>and Broadway, deep in the world of Eastern European emigreys.

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<v Speaker 3>Leon serves in the army, fights in the Battle of

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<v Speaker 3>the Bulge, and ends up in counterintelligence. How do you

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<v Speaker 3>think the refugee experience shaped your father?

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<v Speaker 6>Number of ways. I think the overriding one was we've

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<v Speaker 6>retreated this far and no farther. So it was it

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<v Speaker 6>was a view of sort of America, not just as

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<v Speaker 6>city on the hill, not just but you know, there's

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<v Speaker 6>nowhere left to retreat to. The country needs to be

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<v Speaker 6>truly defended. He got a home, he got a country,

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<v Speaker 6>he got acceptance. All that was terribly, terribly important.

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<v Speaker 3>So this is who Ran puts in charge of the

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<v Speaker 3>Vietnam operation. Leon Garay a patriot in the way that

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<v Speaker 3>only an immigrant can be a patriot.

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<v Speaker 2>He was suave, he was very charming. He had a

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<v Speaker 2>great sense of humor, very articulate, energetic, enthusiastic. So personally

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<v Speaker 2>I liked him. The only thing I didn't like about

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<v Speaker 2>him was the fact that he was a great ladies man,

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<v Speaker 2>and there were a lot of rumors about that. But

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<v Speaker 2>as a person I liked him.

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<v Speaker 3>Gray spoke, German, Russian, French, all fluently, big thick head

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<v Speaker 3>of black hair, that amazing accent. He was the embodiment

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<v Speaker 3>of the European intellectual.

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<v Speaker 6>He had an amazing kind of research all of his life,

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<v Speaker 6>where there would be stacks of documents in Russian innings

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<v Speaker 6>on his desk and he literally re talking to you

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<v Speaker 6>and it would sort of be, well, you know, there

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<v Speaker 6>was this recent thing, and it's an idetic memory. But

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<v Speaker 6>he was certainly kind of librarian encyclopedic in that kind

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<v Speaker 6>of set.

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<v Speaker 3>Gray meets Robert McNamara, President Johnson's Secretary of Defense and

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<v Speaker 3>tells him what he thinks needs to be done. That

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<v Speaker 3>is to really answer the question of how the bombing

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<v Speaker 3>is affecting the Viet Cong.

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<v Speaker 4>That's the question I remembered very clearly.

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<v Speaker 3>Again, this is from the interview Garray did with the

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<v Speaker 3>Rand Archives a decade ago at the end of his life.

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<v Speaker 4>And he said, what is your funding? I told him

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<v Speaker 4>he had one hundred thousand dollars. He said, what would

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<v Speaker 4>you do with a million? That was his question. I said,

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<v Speaker 4>that's a new moral of this stuff, and I have

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<v Speaker 4>more people doing the interviewing, says, you have it.

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<v Speaker 3>A million dollars in Saigon in the mid sixties was

0:13:57.156 --> 0:14:00.556
<v Speaker 3>a king's ransom. So Gray hires a team of locals

0:14:00.796 --> 0:14:04.116
<v Speaker 3>to fan out across the South Vietnamese countryside to interview

0:14:04.116 --> 0:14:08.196
<v Speaker 3>defectors from North Vietnam and captured via Cong guerrillas. That's

0:14:08.196 --> 0:14:11.476
<v Speaker 3>where my elliot comes. She was one of Garay's interviewers,

0:14:11.956 --> 0:14:15.276
<v Speaker 3>and her story is every bit as fascinating as Leon Garays.

0:14:15.876 --> 0:14:20.796
<v Speaker 2>My father was appointed to Haifhog. He became mayor of Haiphong.

0:14:21.956 --> 0:14:24.996
<v Speaker 3>She grew up in the north before the country was divided.

0:14:25.276 --> 0:14:28.436
<v Speaker 3>Her father was part of the French colonial administration, and.

0:14:28.436 --> 0:14:30.876
<v Speaker 2>As mayor he had a lot of authority. He was

0:14:30.916 --> 0:14:34.316
<v Speaker 2>almost like the king of that little town. And we

0:14:34.396 --> 0:14:40.156
<v Speaker 2>live in an enormous house with an enormous garden front

0:14:40.196 --> 0:14:44.316
<v Speaker 2>and back, with a staff of servants and even a

0:14:44.356 --> 0:14:48.236
<v Speaker 2>platoono guards, you know, who stood guard outside our gate.

0:14:48.796 --> 0:14:52.836
<v Speaker 2>So that was really the best time of my life.

0:14:53.996 --> 0:14:56.796
<v Speaker 3>Then the French get defeated in the north by the communists.

0:14:57.076 --> 0:14:58.956
<v Speaker 3>Vietnam is divided in two.

0:14:59.076 --> 0:15:03.076
<v Speaker 2>It happened, so suddenly we just packed up and left

0:15:03.116 --> 0:15:08.156
<v Speaker 2>everything and we lost everything. So when it happened, we

0:15:08.156 --> 0:15:10.276
<v Speaker 2>were in a panic, didn't know what to do. My

0:15:10.396 --> 0:15:14.116
<v Speaker 2>father had, of course collaborated with the French. I didn't know,

0:15:14.196 --> 0:15:16.276
<v Speaker 2>you know, I didn't understand a thing, but my father

0:15:16.436 --> 0:15:18.276
<v Speaker 2>was a fait that the communists would come in and

0:15:18.836 --> 0:15:25.476
<v Speaker 2>kill him.

0:15:26.396 --> 0:15:28.596
<v Speaker 3>My Elliott didn't come to the RAND project as a

0:15:28.636 --> 0:15:32.276
<v Speaker 3>blank slate. She came with a history. She had to

0:15:32.316 --> 0:15:34.716
<v Speaker 3>flee for her life from the communists in the north.

0:15:34.996 --> 0:15:38.116
<v Speaker 3>Now she's been hired by RAND to figure out the communists,

0:15:38.636 --> 0:15:42.676
<v Speaker 3>the same people who chased her family away. The interviewers

0:15:42.676 --> 0:15:45.796
<v Speaker 3>would go out in teams of three or four. Sometimes

0:15:45.796 --> 0:15:48.196
<v Speaker 3>the groups would stay in Saigon and go to the

0:15:48.196 --> 0:15:51.796
<v Speaker 3>prison where captured Via Kong were held. Other times they

0:15:51.836 --> 0:15:54.556
<v Speaker 3>would head out into the countryside, hitching a ride on

0:15:54.596 --> 0:15:58.636
<v Speaker 3>military planes to the Mekong Delta. The interviews were taped,

0:15:59.036 --> 0:16:02.876
<v Speaker 3>did offer their subjects cigarettes. Sometimes they'd sit outside under

0:16:02.916 --> 0:16:07.476
<v Speaker 3>the trees. It was friendly, not confrontational. The interviewers made

0:16:07.476 --> 0:16:10.076
<v Speaker 3>it clear that they were only doing a research project.

0:16:10.676 --> 0:16:14.276
<v Speaker 3>If the subject was uninteresting or reluctant, the sessions would

0:16:14.316 --> 0:16:18.436
<v Speaker 3>be short. Other times they might last for days. Then

0:16:18.476 --> 0:16:21.036
<v Speaker 3>it was back to the villa on Route Pasteur, where

0:16:21.036 --> 0:16:32.756
<v Speaker 3>the interviews would be transcribed, translated, and edited. That's my

0:16:32.836 --> 0:16:35.956
<v Speaker 3>Elliott in the Central Mekong Delta into being a former

0:16:36.036 --> 0:16:38.916
<v Speaker 3>company commander for the two hundred and sixty first Battalion

0:16:39.236 --> 0:16:40.556
<v Speaker 3>of the North Vietnamese Army.

0:16:40.676 --> 0:16:44.716
<v Speaker 2>There was a lot of questions about bombing, What weapons

0:16:44.716 --> 0:16:47.716
<v Speaker 2>do you feel the most, what had the most effect

0:16:47.756 --> 0:16:51.036
<v Speaker 2>on your unit and your operations? And with the North

0:16:51.116 --> 0:16:55.116
<v Speaker 2>Vietnamese who infiltrated into the South, tell us about conditions

0:16:55.476 --> 0:16:58.436
<v Speaker 2>you march from the North to the South with the

0:16:58.556 --> 0:17:02.356
<v Speaker 2>bombings you know along the way. Things like that.

0:17:07.316 --> 0:17:11.756
<v Speaker 3>The Morale Project would eventually put sixty two thousand pages

0:17:11.756 --> 0:17:16.116
<v Speaker 3>of transcripts interviews with captured via Kong and others sixty

0:17:16.356 --> 0:17:21.116
<v Speaker 3>two thousand pages. This isn't some focus group conducted by

0:17:21.156 --> 0:17:24.196
<v Speaker 3>a PR firm where a few dozen people are interviewed

0:17:24.196 --> 0:17:27.156
<v Speaker 3>for an hour. This is one of the most extraordinary

0:17:27.476 --> 0:17:33.516
<v Speaker 3>encyclopedic detailed portraits of an enemy ever created. Remember, no

0:17:33.596 --> 0:17:36.156
<v Speaker 3>one in Washington really knew anything about Vietnam in the

0:17:36.156 --> 0:17:39.396
<v Speaker 3>early nineteen sixties. Now there was a million dollar operation

0:17:39.476 --> 0:17:43.316
<v Speaker 3>on the Rue pasteur painting a living, breathing portrait of.

0:17:43.356 --> 0:17:44.036
<v Speaker 1>The other side.

0:17:44.796 --> 0:17:50.836
<v Speaker 3>The stuff was gold. Gray takes the results and makes

0:17:50.836 --> 0:17:55.396
<v Speaker 3>the rounds. His favorite statistic was this. When Rand started

0:17:55.396 --> 0:17:59.516
<v Speaker 3>as study, sixty five percent of defectors and prisoners believed

0:17:59.516 --> 0:18:02.556
<v Speaker 3>the Via Kong could win. After a year of heavy

0:18:02.636 --> 0:18:06.316
<v Speaker 3>US bombing, that number was down to twenty percent. The

0:18:06.476 --> 0:18:10.596
<v Speaker 3>enemy was on the ropes. He's the Air Force Army

0:18:11.196 --> 0:18:14.636
<v Speaker 3>US Embassy, then off to Honolulu, to the headquarters of

0:18:14.636 --> 0:18:18.196
<v Speaker 3>the Army of the Pacific RAND in Santa Monica, Washington,

0:18:18.276 --> 0:18:20.356
<v Speaker 3>d C. To the Pentagon, and to the White House.

0:18:20.876 --> 0:18:23.836
<v Speaker 3>Helicopters would pick him up in Saigon and whisk him

0:18:23.836 --> 0:18:27.316
<v Speaker 3>to aircraft carriers at the Villa and Rupasteur. He holds

0:18:27.316 --> 0:18:30.636
<v Speaker 3>cocktail parties for everyone who is anyone in South Vietnam,

0:18:31.316 --> 0:18:35.356
<v Speaker 3>Henry Kissinger, Walter Mondale, the US Senator later to become

0:18:35.436 --> 0:18:40.556
<v Speaker 3>Jimmy Carter's Vice president. Gray meets with visiting journalists, CIA officers.

0:18:40.916 --> 0:18:42.276
<v Speaker 3>His stuff goes right to the top.

0:18:42.596 --> 0:18:46.076
<v Speaker 4>Well, we've had an interesting report from a man named

0:18:46.156 --> 0:18:50.036
<v Speaker 4>Goray who works for the Rand Corporation, and wemired.

0:18:50.676 --> 0:18:55.116
<v Speaker 3>That's Robert McNamara, Johnson's Defense secretary. From tapes made of

0:18:55.116 --> 0:18:58.916
<v Speaker 3>White House conversations in nineteen sixty five and sixty six,

0:18:59.556 --> 0:19:02.876
<v Speaker 3>President Lyndon Johnson decides to pull the United States deeper

0:19:02.916 --> 0:19:06.596
<v Speaker 3>and deeper into Vietnam, and the story was that LBJ

0:19:06.796 --> 0:19:09.076
<v Speaker 3>used to walk around with a summary of Grey's fine

0:19:09.716 --> 0:19:15.636
<v Speaker 3>in his back pocket. Wars require public justification. If you're

0:19:15.636 --> 0:19:18.196
<v Speaker 3>going to put thousands of lives at risk, you need

0:19:18.236 --> 0:19:21.676
<v Speaker 3>to explain to your citizens just what you're doing. And

0:19:21.716 --> 0:19:24.716
<v Speaker 3>that's what Leon Garret offered in the crucial early years

0:19:24.796 --> 0:19:33.836
<v Speaker 3>of the Vietnam War. He offered justification. Enter Conrad Kellen,

0:19:34.556 --> 0:19:36.076
<v Speaker 3>the third person in our story.

0:19:38.076 --> 0:19:41.756
<v Speaker 5>When did I come to rand Oh? Well, I lived

0:19:41.796 --> 0:19:45.716
<v Speaker 5>in New York at sixty four. I think it was.

0:19:46.916 --> 0:19:50.036
<v Speaker 3>Kellen was a battered veteran of World War Two and

0:19:50.116 --> 0:19:52.556
<v Speaker 3>a little bit of a legend. I once spent two

0:19:52.596 --> 0:19:55.756
<v Speaker 3>weeks in Los Angeles just going from one person's house

0:19:55.796 --> 0:19:59.636
<v Speaker 3>to the next, asking for their memories of Kellen. Everybody

0:19:59.676 --> 0:20:02.876
<v Speaker 3>remembers Conrad Keillen. If you took the absolute best of

0:20:02.956 --> 0:20:05.916
<v Speaker 3>nineteenth century Central Europe and put it in a time

0:20:05.996 --> 0:20:09.076
<v Speaker 3>machine that opened its doors in nineteen sixties southern California,

0:20:09.876 --> 0:20:10.596
<v Speaker 3>that would be Kellen.

0:20:11.156 --> 0:20:14.556
<v Speaker 5>I read the paper said some people in Washington, some

0:20:14.596 --> 0:20:20.596
<v Speaker 5>smart boys, had showered the North with millions of leaflets

0:20:21.796 --> 0:20:24.596
<v Speaker 5>in which they had told the Vietnamese they should lay

0:20:24.636 --> 0:20:29.916
<v Speaker 5>down their arms because we were good people and their

0:20:30.196 --> 0:20:33.556
<v Speaker 5>leaders were bad people. You know the ordinary nonsense, and

0:20:33.836 --> 0:20:35.876
<v Speaker 5>they should stop fighting the war.

0:20:37.316 --> 0:20:40.196
<v Speaker 3>Kellen served in US Army intelligence in the Second World War,

0:20:40.676 --> 0:20:44.556
<v Speaker 3>specializing in psychological warfare. So later when he reads how

0:20:44.596 --> 0:20:47.676
<v Speaker 3>the US was using leaflets in Vietnam, he gets angry,

0:20:48.036 --> 0:20:48.996
<v Speaker 3>We're doing it all wrong.

0:20:49.276 --> 0:20:50.996
<v Speaker 5>And so I wrote a letter to the New York

0:20:51.036 --> 0:20:57.076
<v Speaker 5>Times and said it was obvious nonsense to shower large

0:20:57.156 --> 0:21:00.796
<v Speaker 5>numbers of soldiers with a leaflet saying stop that war.

0:21:00.916 --> 0:21:03.756
<v Speaker 5>Soldiers don't stop wars, so this would begin wars. And

0:21:03.796 --> 0:21:07.396
<v Speaker 5>soldiers don't stop wars. So if you want to stop

0:21:07.396 --> 0:21:09.996
<v Speaker 5>a war, you have to do it differently. So I

0:21:09.996 --> 0:21:12.396
<v Speaker 5>got a call from them here, from the RAM people,

0:21:12.436 --> 0:21:16.036
<v Speaker 5>and they wanted me to come and be part of

0:21:16.076 --> 0:21:19.156
<v Speaker 5>the system, and that I said, okay, So came to

0:21:19.276 --> 0:21:20.036
<v Speaker 5>Los Angeles.

0:21:22.316 --> 0:21:26.076
<v Speaker 3>Kellen grew up in Berlin, wealthy cultured. His father owned

0:21:26.116 --> 0:21:29.476
<v Speaker 3>a big brewery. His full name was Katzen ellen Bogan,

0:21:29.956 --> 0:21:31.636
<v Speaker 3>and the Cats and ellen Boguns were one of the

0:21:31.676 --> 0:21:35.756
<v Speaker 3>great Jewish families of Europe. But when Hitler came to power,

0:21:35.956 --> 0:21:39.116
<v Speaker 3>Kellen packed his bags. He said later that he knew

0:21:39.196 --> 0:21:42.156
<v Speaker 3>on some instinctive level that things would not end well

0:21:42.196 --> 0:21:42.636
<v Speaker 3>for the Jews.

0:21:42.676 --> 0:21:43.196
<v Speaker 1>In Germany.

0:21:43.836 --> 0:21:46.556
<v Speaker 3>He goes to Paris becomes friends with the French writer

0:21:46.636 --> 0:21:49.396
<v Speaker 3>Jean Cocteau. His life is full of moments like this.

0:21:50.556 --> 0:21:52.596
<v Speaker 3>He gets on a boat to America and meets the

0:21:52.636 --> 0:21:55.956
<v Speaker 3>mobster Dutch Schultz, who offers him a job. He arrives

0:21:55.956 --> 0:21:59.356
<v Speaker 3>in New York and works for the legendary investor Benjamin Graham,

0:21:59.556 --> 0:22:01.996
<v Speaker 3>who was the mentor of Warren Buffett. He goes to

0:22:02.036 --> 0:22:04.916
<v Speaker 3>California and is the private secretary of the Nobel Prize

0:22:04.956 --> 0:22:12.156
<v Speaker 3>winning novelist Thomas Mann. Kellen was impossibly handsome, dashing over

0:22:12.236 --> 0:22:15.956
<v Speaker 3>six feet tall. He was an expert in golf, handwriting analysis,

0:22:15.996 --> 0:22:20.356
<v Speaker 3>and ferraris. Both his sisters earned PhDs from Berkeley, one

0:22:20.396 --> 0:22:23.796
<v Speaker 3>in chemistry, the other in biology. His brother escapes from

0:22:23.876 --> 0:22:26.596
<v Speaker 3>Nazi Germany lands in New York, and if you go

0:22:26.636 --> 0:22:29.356
<v Speaker 3>online and look up the assets of his personal foundation,

0:22:29.956 --> 0:22:34.076
<v Speaker 3>it's six hundred and sixty five million dollars. His stepmother

0:22:34.196 --> 0:22:37.476
<v Speaker 3>was painted by Renoirs, a family friend. He was cousins

0:22:37.476 --> 0:22:41.516
<v Speaker 3>with Einstein. I mean, after a bit, it gets ridiculous.

0:22:45.796 --> 0:22:48.076
<v Speaker 3>The craziest story about Kellen is when he was in

0:22:48.156 --> 0:22:51.156
<v Speaker 3>Paris in nineteen forty five. The war has just ended,

0:22:51.276 --> 0:22:53.276
<v Speaker 3>and he's sitting in the Cafe Select near the chan

0:22:53.396 --> 0:22:57.476
<v Speaker 3>Zilise when a young woman approaches him. She says, are

0:22:57.476 --> 0:23:00.836
<v Speaker 3>you an American gi He says yes. She says you

0:23:00.876 --> 0:23:03.756
<v Speaker 3>going back to the States. He says yes. She says,

0:23:04.356 --> 0:23:06.996
<v Speaker 3>you have to do me a favor. My father's an artist.

0:23:07.196 --> 0:23:10.036
<v Speaker 3>I have to get his work safely to America, because,

0:23:10.076 --> 0:23:13.076
<v Speaker 3>of course Europe was in chaos. And Kellen says, by

0:23:13.076 --> 0:23:16.316
<v Speaker 3>all means. But then she goes away and comes back

0:23:16.356 --> 0:23:19.636
<v Speaker 3>with this massive stack of canvasses and he says, there's

0:23:19.636 --> 0:23:21.556
<v Speaker 3>no way I can take that, and she says, you

0:23:21.756 --> 0:23:25.836
<v Speaker 3>have to. Whereupon Callen embarks on this epic month long

0:23:25.916 --> 0:23:29.436
<v Speaker 3>struggle to get these paintings safely across the ocean, which

0:23:29.476 --> 0:23:31.916
<v Speaker 3>includes being trapped in the back of an open truck

0:23:31.996 --> 0:23:34.476
<v Speaker 3>during a rain storm and throwing his coat over the

0:23:34.476 --> 0:23:37.116
<v Speaker 3>pile of paintings to keep them from being ruined, and

0:23:37.196 --> 0:23:40.796
<v Speaker 3>staying up all night, night after night because he's terrified

0:23:40.876 --> 0:23:45.716
<v Speaker 3>someone will steal them. Who's the painter, Mark Chagal, I

0:23:45.756 --> 0:23:49.956
<v Speaker 3>should say Mark Chagal, of course, because only Conrad Kellen

0:23:50.156 --> 0:23:52.876
<v Speaker 3>would end up transporting the collected works of one of

0:23:52.916 --> 0:23:56.436
<v Speaker 3>the most famous artists of the twentieth century to America

0:23:56.876 --> 0:24:00.516
<v Speaker 3>in a rainstorm on the back of a truck. The

0:24:00.556 --> 0:24:03.076
<v Speaker 3>deal Chagall's daughter made with him was that he could

0:24:03.076 --> 0:24:06.156
<v Speaker 3>take one picture and keep it for himself. So he

0:24:06.236 --> 0:24:09.636
<v Speaker 3>takes one, a famous one. Then he tells it in

0:24:09.676 --> 0:24:12.116
<v Speaker 3>the nineteen fifties for what seemed like a lot of

0:24:12.156 --> 0:24:15.796
<v Speaker 3>money at the time, But of course it's a Chagall,

0:24:16.236 --> 0:24:19.276
<v Speaker 3>a famous Chagall. And every now and again over the

0:24:19.356 --> 0:24:22.276
<v Speaker 3>years he'd spot his old painting in an auction catalog

0:24:22.596 --> 0:24:26.476
<v Speaker 3>worth more and more and more, and it'd bury his

0:24:26.596 --> 0:24:37.156
<v Speaker 3>head in his hands and say oh. By late nineteen

0:24:37.196 --> 0:24:41.036
<v Speaker 3>sixty six, when Conrad Kellen gets to Rand, the place

0:24:41.116 --> 0:24:44.196
<v Speaker 3>is in turmoil. The Vietnam War has split its ranks

0:24:44.236 --> 0:24:46.716
<v Speaker 3>down the middle. This is the think tank that the

0:24:46.756 --> 0:24:49.356
<v Speaker 3>Pentagon has been relying on to make sense of the war.

0:24:49.716 --> 0:24:52.196
<v Speaker 3>But there's a group inside RAND that believes the war

0:24:52.276 --> 0:24:55.316
<v Speaker 3>is a terrible mistake. I don't know if you remember

0:24:55.316 --> 0:24:58.156
<v Speaker 3>the story of the Pentagon Papers. This was the secret

0:24:58.196 --> 0:25:01.396
<v Speaker 3>forty seven volume study of US political and military involvement

0:25:01.396 --> 0:25:04.556
<v Speaker 3>in the Vietnam War. It was commissioned by the Pentagon.

0:25:05.036 --> 0:25:07.156
<v Speaker 3>The Pentagon Papers showed that the White House had been

0:25:07.156 --> 0:25:10.716
<v Speaker 3>misleading Congress and the American people for years about how

0:25:10.756 --> 0:25:13.716
<v Speaker 3>well the war was going. A copy of the Pentagon

0:25:13.756 --> 0:25:16.316
<v Speaker 3>Papers was famously leaked to the New York Times in

0:25:16.396 --> 0:25:20.996
<v Speaker 3>nineteen seventy one by Daniel Ellsberg. Ellsberg's leak was really

0:25:20.996 --> 0:25:23.196
<v Speaker 3>the beginning of the end of public support for the war.

0:25:23.956 --> 0:25:27.356
<v Speaker 3>And who was Elsburg? An employee of Rand? And where

0:25:27.356 --> 0:25:29.836
<v Speaker 3>did he get his copy of the Pentagon Papers? He

0:25:29.916 --> 0:25:32.276
<v Speaker 3>took it from the safe at Rand and guests who

0:25:32.316 --> 0:25:35.156
<v Speaker 3>was one of Ellsburg's best friends and confidants at Rand,

0:25:36.116 --> 0:25:41.916
<v Speaker 3>Conrad Kellen, of course, as always in the thick of things.

0:25:43.316 --> 0:25:45.756
<v Speaker 3>But the moment we're talking about is well before the

0:25:45.756 --> 0:25:49.596
<v Speaker 3>Pentagon Paper's controversy. It's at the beginning of the divisions

0:25:49.596 --> 0:25:54.276
<v Speaker 3>within Rand nineteen sixty five sixty six. Rand is a

0:25:54.316 --> 0:25:58.276
<v Speaker 3>place that prides itself on objectivity and rigor. Everything is

0:25:58.356 --> 0:26:01.196
<v Speaker 3>checked and double checked and fact checked and reviewed in

0:26:01.236 --> 0:26:04.516
<v Speaker 3>house before it's released. But the Rand brass is beginning

0:26:04.516 --> 0:26:07.876
<v Speaker 3>to worry that when Leon Garray gets whisked by helicopter

0:26:07.956 --> 0:26:11.396
<v Speaker 3>to aircraft carriers or huddles with generals at his cocktail

0:26:11.436 --> 0:26:14.516
<v Speaker 3>parties at the Villa and Rupestur he's bypassing all that.

0:26:15.116 --> 0:26:17.996
<v Speaker 3>They worry that he's gone rogue, so they bring in

0:26:18.076 --> 0:26:22.436
<v Speaker 3>Conrad Kellen to be a second set of eyes. Kellen

0:26:22.516 --> 0:26:25.876
<v Speaker 3>comes in and reads a thousand of the Via Kong interviews.

0:26:26.196 --> 0:26:29.116
<v Speaker 3>Remember many of these interviews ran to fifteen or twenty

0:26:29.196 --> 0:26:33.116
<v Speaker 3>single space type pages. It's a huge amount of work.

0:26:33.876 --> 0:26:37.156
<v Speaker 3>And Kellen decides Gray has it all wrong. The Via

0:26:37.276 --> 0:26:41.796
<v Speaker 3>Kong are not crumbling. On the contrary, here's Kellen again

0:26:41.996 --> 0:26:43.596
<v Speaker 3>from his interview with my Elliott.

0:26:44.436 --> 0:26:49.556
<v Speaker 5>I could see from the interviews that we were not

0:26:49.596 --> 0:26:53.836
<v Speaker 5>going to win this role. That was Michael Koos. I

0:26:53.876 --> 0:26:55.836
<v Speaker 5>was one of the very few people that ran who

0:26:55.876 --> 0:26:59.196
<v Speaker 5>had that idea, and most of from Bergang Ho they

0:26:59.196 --> 0:27:02.036
<v Speaker 5>were going and they couldn't understand. To this day, they

0:27:02.036 --> 0:27:08.396
<v Speaker 5>don't understand how a nation was two million million soldiers

0:27:09.156 --> 0:27:12.756
<v Speaker 5>out of ships airplanes cannot win over Vietnam.

0:27:13.636 --> 0:27:18.516
<v Speaker 3>So here we have two men, two sophisticated European intellectuals

0:27:18.716 --> 0:27:21.796
<v Speaker 3>with access to the richest trove of intelligence in the

0:27:21.956 --> 0:27:26.756
<v Speaker 3>entire war. Grey goes first and says we're winning. Kellen

0:27:26.836 --> 0:27:30.556
<v Speaker 3>comes along, looks at exactly the same evidence and says

0:27:30.756 --> 0:27:34.596
<v Speaker 3>we're never going to win. Then there's my Elliot. If

0:27:34.636 --> 0:27:37.356
<v Speaker 3>Gray is at the villa on Rue Pasteur and Kellen

0:27:37.436 --> 0:27:40.956
<v Speaker 3>is back in Santa Monica, Elliott is actually in the field,

0:27:41.396 --> 0:27:44.916
<v Speaker 3>in the jungles and villages, talking to actual defectors and

0:27:45.036 --> 0:27:48.236
<v Speaker 3>via cong guerrillas. And what does she think will happen?

0:27:49.076 --> 0:27:51.596
<v Speaker 3>She doesn't know. She's confused.

0:27:52.196 --> 0:27:55.636
<v Speaker 2>I walked into this sale and I didn't know what

0:27:55.716 --> 0:28:00.796
<v Speaker 2>to expect. And then in walked this man, middle aged,

0:28:01.716 --> 0:28:07.556
<v Speaker 2>very briskly and he looked, you know, like a man,

0:28:10.276 --> 0:28:13.436
<v Speaker 2>and he stopped dead in his tracks.

0:28:13.716 --> 0:28:16.596
<v Speaker 3>Elliott is talking about an early interview she did that

0:28:16.636 --> 0:28:19.676
<v Speaker 3>had a huge impact on her that she never forgot.

0:28:20.036 --> 0:28:22.196
<v Speaker 2>You have to remember what I looked like at the time.

0:28:22.276 --> 0:28:26.276
<v Speaker 2>I was young. I was dressed in western clothes and

0:28:26.956 --> 0:28:30.756
<v Speaker 2>I didn't look like the military interrogators he had seen.

0:28:31.196 --> 0:28:33.316
<v Speaker 2>So he was surprised to see me, and he was

0:28:33.436 --> 0:28:36.436
<v Speaker 2>kind of guarded, suspicious. He didn't know what to expect,

0:28:37.436 --> 0:28:41.516
<v Speaker 2>and I was afraid. I didn't know what was going

0:28:41.596 --> 0:28:45.396
<v Speaker 2>to happen because I had grown up believing that the

0:28:45.436 --> 0:28:46.836
<v Speaker 2>Communists were blood thirsty.

0:28:47.476 --> 0:28:52.116
<v Speaker 3>They started to talk, and gradually he relaxed and she relaxed.

0:28:52.516 --> 0:28:56.876
<v Speaker 2>You know, I had never met a Communist before face

0:28:56.956 --> 0:29:00.236
<v Speaker 2>to face. So I just my curiosity just took over,

0:29:00.796 --> 0:29:03.036
<v Speaker 2>and I just asked him a lot of questions about

0:29:03.116 --> 0:29:07.196
<v Speaker 2>him and his family and his background and his beliefs.

0:29:07.276 --> 0:29:09.956
<v Speaker 2>And he had devoted his whole life to fighting the

0:29:09.996 --> 0:29:13.876
<v Speaker 2>French and now he was fighting the Americans, and he

0:29:13.956 --> 0:29:15.636
<v Speaker 2>seemed to have a lot of integrity.

0:29:16.076 --> 0:29:18.276
<v Speaker 3>And what effect did listening to him have on you?

0:29:19.036 --> 0:29:25.516
<v Speaker 2>Well, it really confused me because I had believed that

0:29:25.596 --> 0:29:29.756
<v Speaker 2>the Communists were sort of like tugs. We call them

0:29:29.996 --> 0:29:32.876
<v Speaker 2>cho mutu, meaning tugs, and.

0:29:33.036 --> 0:29:34.516
<v Speaker 3>It's a literal translation of.

0:29:34.476 --> 0:29:39.556
<v Speaker 2>That cho mingu the head of a buffalo and the

0:29:39.596 --> 0:29:43.516
<v Speaker 2>body of a horse. So somebody who's not quite human

0:29:45.116 --> 0:29:45.596
<v Speaker 2>a thug.

0:29:49.836 --> 0:29:53.236
<v Speaker 3>What the captured Via Kong officer said was straightforward, The

0:29:53.316 --> 0:29:59.036
<v Speaker 3>intelligence was straightforward. But my Elliot's reaction was anything but straightforward.

0:29:59.156 --> 0:30:02.276
<v Speaker 2>And so I left with more questions and answers, and

0:30:02.716 --> 0:30:05.716
<v Speaker 2>I began to see that the picture was not black

0:30:05.756 --> 0:30:08.116
<v Speaker 2>and white like I had believed at the beginning.

0:30:10.676 --> 0:30:13.876
<v Speaker 3>But then Elliott says something crucial. She says, it didn't

0:30:13.956 --> 0:30:17.636
<v Speaker 3>change her mind. She saw the evidence with her own eyes.

0:30:17.956 --> 0:30:20.996
<v Speaker 3>She did the interview with the general, but it wasn't enough,

0:30:22.516 --> 0:30:26.116
<v Speaker 3>remember her circumstances. She comes from a family of privilege,

0:30:26.556 --> 0:30:28.596
<v Speaker 3>and the rise of the Communists in the north takes

0:30:28.596 --> 0:30:31.276
<v Speaker 3>all that away. They end up living in a little

0:30:31.276 --> 0:30:35.396
<v Speaker 3>hot and Saigon. The Vietcong is not some abstract force.

0:30:35.796 --> 0:30:37.956
<v Speaker 3>They were a personal threat to her family.

0:30:38.276 --> 0:30:42.276
<v Speaker 2>I think for people whose the blacks were against the

0:30:42.316 --> 0:30:49.196
<v Speaker 2>wall and who thought that the survival depended on the

0:30:49.276 --> 0:30:53.756
<v Speaker 2>Communists not winning, then seeing the evidence doesn't mean that

0:30:54.276 --> 0:30:55.636
<v Speaker 2>you change your mind.

0:30:56.716 --> 0:30:59.916
<v Speaker 3>Seeing the evidence doesn't mean that you change your mind.

0:31:00.796 --> 0:31:05.516
<v Speaker 2>Seeing the evidence just increases your fear. Because you fear

0:31:05.636 --> 0:31:09.436
<v Speaker 2>that you know that the Communists would win and it

0:31:09.476 --> 0:31:12.476
<v Speaker 2>would be the end of you and your family, and

0:31:13.636 --> 0:31:16.676
<v Speaker 2>you don't want to face it. You know, you don't

0:31:16.676 --> 0:31:17.756
<v Speaker 2>want to think about it.

0:31:27.556 --> 0:31:30.116
<v Speaker 3>Leon Garay might well have read the transcript of that

0:31:30.276 --> 0:31:33.116
<v Speaker 3>same interview that my Elliott did with the Via Kong officer,

0:31:33.756 --> 0:31:36.756
<v Speaker 3>and his interpretation would be that guy's going to give up.

0:31:37.316 --> 0:31:39.836
<v Speaker 3>If we just bomb people like him some more, we'll

0:31:39.836 --> 0:31:45.116
<v Speaker 3>destroy their will in retrospect, completely wrong. But think about

0:31:45.196 --> 0:31:46.636
<v Speaker 3>this from Gray's perspective.

0:31:47.316 --> 0:31:51.996
<v Speaker 4>Well, look, if you want to understand that I am

0:31:52.036 --> 0:31:56.916
<v Speaker 4>a professional refugee, I win a refugee from Russia to Germany,

0:31:56.956 --> 0:31:59.796
<v Speaker 4>from Germany to France, and from France to the United States.

0:32:00.436 --> 0:32:04.196
<v Speaker 4>So three times. So as far as I was concerned,

0:32:04.236 --> 0:32:07.716
<v Speaker 4>this was going to be my country, and what the

0:32:07.796 --> 0:32:10.676
<v Speaker 4>way it was to defend interest of the United States,

0:32:10.716 --> 0:32:14.236
<v Speaker 4>it was sufficient reason to pursue this thing.

0:32:15.116 --> 0:32:18.916
<v Speaker 3>By this thing, he means fighting communism, the enemy that

0:32:18.996 --> 0:32:21.796
<v Speaker 3>forced Gray out of his home in Russia, and in

0:32:21.836 --> 0:32:25.876
<v Speaker 3>the nineteen sixties, this thing, Communism is still out there.

0:32:26.476 --> 0:32:30.236
<v Speaker 3>It spread to Vietnam. Think how much Gray had to

0:32:30.276 --> 0:32:33.836
<v Speaker 3>believe that America was winning the war. Leon Garray felt

0:32:33.876 --> 0:32:35.676
<v Speaker 3>there was nowhere left to retreat to.

0:32:37.756 --> 0:32:42.076
<v Speaker 4>You don't pick and choose your wars. Your countries are

0:32:42.156 --> 0:32:45.956
<v Speaker 4>wars at war period. You don't pick and choose whether

0:32:45.916 --> 0:32:54.276
<v Speaker 4>you approval of it or not. That's nonsense, that's chaos.

0:32:55.876 --> 0:32:58.636
<v Speaker 3>There's a moment in my Elliott's interview with Conrad Kellen

0:32:58.996 --> 0:33:01.876
<v Speaker 3>where he talks about Gray about what it means to

0:33:01.916 --> 0:33:02.756
<v Speaker 3>be a refugee.

0:33:03.916 --> 0:33:09.356
<v Speaker 5>I think, like many, it eventually became great opportunists. What

0:33:09.356 --> 0:33:13.476
<v Speaker 5>else could they do. I mean, if you were an opportunitists,

0:33:13.476 --> 0:33:17.156
<v Speaker 5>at least you had the American establishment on your side.

0:33:17.236 --> 0:33:22.036
<v Speaker 3>You know, the refugee is an opportunist because he is

0:33:22.156 --> 0:33:25.796
<v Speaker 3>at the mercy of whatever country will take him. And

0:33:25.836 --> 0:33:28.316
<v Speaker 3>I can't help but think that Kellen is also talking

0:33:28.316 --> 0:33:32.596
<v Speaker 3>about himself here. He's acknowledging the biases that he brought

0:33:32.636 --> 0:33:43.676
<v Speaker 3>to the interviews because he's a refugee too. He escaped

0:33:43.716 --> 0:33:47.196
<v Speaker 3>from the Nazis. He witnessed the destruction of everything he

0:33:47.236 --> 0:33:51.436
<v Speaker 3>once knew, his home, his community, his family, his privilege.

0:33:51.916 --> 0:33:55.196
<v Speaker 3>How can that not scar you? At one point, Kellen

0:33:55.236 --> 0:33:58.636
<v Speaker 3>explains to Elliott why he never actually traveled to Vietnam,

0:33:58.996 --> 0:34:02.036
<v Speaker 3>even though he was working on a project about Vietnam.

0:34:02.356 --> 0:34:04.916
<v Speaker 5>I was not going to Vietnam because one war was

0:34:05.036 --> 0:34:11.956
<v Speaker 5>enough for me. I don't what I have to was.

0:34:09.276 --> 0:34:13.276
<v Speaker 3>Was enough for me? I imagine Kellen read that same interview

0:34:13.316 --> 0:34:17.396
<v Speaker 3>Elliott did, the one with the Vietcong officer. Kellen sees

0:34:17.476 --> 0:34:20.636
<v Speaker 3>the man's determination, and when he thinks about that resolve

0:34:20.956 --> 0:34:24.556
<v Speaker 3>through the prism of his own experience, he realizes, I

0:34:24.596 --> 0:34:28.956
<v Speaker 3>can't match that, not anymore. One war was enough for me.

0:34:32.156 --> 0:34:34.996
<v Speaker 3>Over and again in his interview with my Elliott, Kellen

0:34:35.116 --> 0:34:39.956
<v Speaker 3>comes back to this war wasn't some conceptual abstraction for him.

0:34:40.276 --> 0:34:43.476
<v Speaker 3>It wasn't an intellectual question like it was for so many.

0:34:43.516 --> 0:34:46.596
<v Speaker 3>At Rand it was real, he lived through it.

0:34:47.236 --> 0:34:51.796
<v Speaker 5>There were an awful lot of civilians around in this

0:34:51.956 --> 0:34:59.796
<v Speaker 5>whole thing, in this whole Vietnam thing, who talked about casualties, characters.

0:34:59.876 --> 0:35:03.316
<v Speaker 5>They didn't give a damn about anything. If somebody came

0:35:03.356 --> 0:35:05.716
<v Speaker 5>back and said, you know, we took and took such

0:35:05.756 --> 0:35:10.996
<v Speaker 5>and such a place which I don't know sixty well,

0:35:11.196 --> 0:35:13.796
<v Speaker 5>a casualty is not a dead person. A casualty is

0:35:14.316 --> 0:35:16.276
<v Speaker 5>something theoretical for these people.

0:35:16.836 --> 0:35:21.636
<v Speaker 3>One interview with the Vietcong officer, one fantastic bit of intelligence,

0:35:21.956 --> 0:35:25.556
<v Speaker 3>an insight into the enemy's mind, and yet everyone was

0:35:25.556 --> 0:35:29.236
<v Speaker 3>in disagreement on what it meant because everyone was looking

0:35:29.236 --> 0:35:32.516
<v Speaker 3>at it through a different set of eyes. That's why

0:35:32.516 --> 0:35:36.956
<v Speaker 3>intelligence failures happened. It's not because someone screws up or

0:35:36.996 --> 0:35:40.516
<v Speaker 3>is stupid or lazy. It's because the people who make

0:35:40.596 --> 0:35:44.316
<v Speaker 3>sense of intelligence are human beings with their own histories

0:35:44.316 --> 0:35:48.516
<v Speaker 3>and biases. So what happens to the three people in

0:35:48.556 --> 0:35:52.596
<v Speaker 3>our story? Gray gets recalled from Vietnam in April of

0:35:52.636 --> 0:35:53.756
<v Speaker 3>nineteen sixty seven.

0:35:54.436 --> 0:35:57.356
<v Speaker 4>Clearly Rand asked me to stop going there.

0:35:57.636 --> 0:36:00.956
<v Speaker 3>To stop going to Vietnam, to return to Santa Monica.

0:36:01.436 --> 0:36:03.476
<v Speaker 4>I went back, and then I was told that my

0:36:03.596 --> 0:36:07.556
<v Speaker 4>presence was an embarrassment. I don't know why you suggest.

0:36:07.596 --> 0:36:10.116
<v Speaker 4>You was very clear that there should love for something else.

0:36:11.436 --> 0:36:12.316
<v Speaker 6>How'd you feel about that?

0:36:12.556 --> 0:36:13.436
<v Speaker 2>Were you disappointed?

0:36:13.756 --> 0:36:14.276
<v Speaker 4>Of course?

0:36:15.276 --> 0:36:18.916
<v Speaker 3>I like grand he was hung out to dry. His son,

0:36:18.996 --> 0:36:20.236
<v Speaker 3>Daniel is a lot more blunt.

0:36:20.676 --> 0:36:23.996
<v Speaker 6>My sense of it was they wanted, you know, to

0:36:24.036 --> 0:36:28.636
<v Speaker 6>cut loose from anything having to do with Vietnam, and

0:36:29.916 --> 0:36:33.396
<v Speaker 6>the way to cut loose from this project and from

0:36:33.516 --> 0:36:36.596
<v Speaker 6>him was to try and discredit the analysis and sort

0:36:36.596 --> 0:36:39.436
<v Speaker 6>of then you know, Okay, you're now no longer a

0:36:39.556 --> 0:36:41.956
<v Speaker 6>legitimate analyst, Well you really do need to go, yeah,

0:36:42.156 --> 0:36:42.636
<v Speaker 6>kind of thing.

0:36:42.956 --> 0:36:45.556
<v Speaker 3>And how can you describe your father in those years?

0:36:46.436 --> 0:36:50.836
<v Speaker 6>So I think he was feeling quite beaten down. Frankly,

0:36:50.876 --> 0:36:53.076
<v Speaker 6>I suspect there was a degree of just physical exhaustion.

0:36:53.756 --> 0:36:56.516
<v Speaker 6>It may have been not that different than you know,

0:36:56.676 --> 0:36:59.556
<v Speaker 6>when he and his family kept getting driven out of

0:37:00.196 --> 0:37:03.036
<v Speaker 6>you know, cities in Europe and had to restart the

0:37:03.076 --> 0:37:05.156
<v Speaker 6>whole process and restart the fight. I think there was

0:37:05.196 --> 0:37:06.076
<v Speaker 6>a certain degree of that.

0:37:06.676 --> 0:37:10.236
<v Speaker 3>Gray eventually moves to Florida take opposed to the University

0:37:10.236 --> 0:37:14.516
<v Speaker 3>of Miami, fights the Cold War from Coral Gables. As

0:37:14.516 --> 0:37:18.556
<v Speaker 3>for my Elliott, she eventually moves to America, lives in Ithaca,

0:37:19.076 --> 0:37:21.796
<v Speaker 3>and it's only then, from the safety of upstate New York,

0:37:22.036 --> 0:37:24.836
<v Speaker 3>that she finally accepts what the Vie Kong officer was

0:37:24.876 --> 0:37:25.396
<v Speaker 3>telling her.

0:37:25.956 --> 0:37:29.316
<v Speaker 2>I wish it would had been easier for me to

0:37:29.396 --> 0:37:33.436
<v Speaker 2>come to that conclusion earlier, because it was just the

0:37:33.636 --> 0:37:36.556
<v Speaker 2>use of agonizing and being ambiguous.

0:37:37.116 --> 0:37:40.476
<v Speaker 3>She finally admits it to herself. The North Vietnamese were

0:37:40.476 --> 0:37:43.916
<v Speaker 3>determined the war was wrong and unwinnable.

0:37:44.796 --> 0:37:49.356
<v Speaker 2>I think that it's easier to be objective when you

0:37:49.396 --> 0:37:54.196
<v Speaker 2>will not you don't have a personal stake in a situation,

0:37:55.836 --> 0:37:58.516
<v Speaker 2>and you can see the evidence and say, oh, yeah,

0:37:58.556 --> 0:38:02.556
<v Speaker 2>the war's not working less ended. But when you have

0:38:02.796 --> 0:38:09.036
<v Speaker 2>a very deep, strong personal stake, it's a lot harder,

0:38:09.876 --> 0:38:13.796
<v Speaker 2>because you're talking about survival of your family realities.

0:38:15.236 --> 0:38:19.516
<v Speaker 3>Mi Elliott finally faced the difficult truth. As for Kellen,

0:38:20.156 --> 0:38:22.676
<v Speaker 3>Kellen sounds the alarm almost in the beginning of his

0:38:22.756 --> 0:38:25.996
<v Speaker 3>time at RAND. He says, the intelligence tells us the

0:38:26.036 --> 0:38:29.116
<v Speaker 3>war cannot be won. But of course, if you know

0:38:29.236 --> 0:38:31.956
<v Speaker 3>even the slightest bit about the Vietnam War, you know

0:38:32.036 --> 0:38:34.116
<v Speaker 3>that no one listened to him, at least until it

0:38:34.156 --> 0:38:37.436
<v Speaker 3>was too late. He suffered, like all of them did.

0:38:38.036 --> 0:38:40.556
<v Speaker 5>I can only say that the people that I knew

0:38:40.996 --> 0:38:45.956
<v Speaker 5>talked a lot about scientific scientific Listen that we're the

0:38:45.996 --> 0:38:49.556
<v Speaker 5>most unscientific people you can imagine. They just picked somebody,

0:38:50.036 --> 0:38:52.436
<v Speaker 5>and then if they agreed with him, or he agreed

0:38:52.476 --> 0:38:54.516
<v Speaker 5>with them, then he was an expert, and if he

0:38:54.516 --> 0:38:56.476
<v Speaker 5>didn't agree with him, he was not an expert. And

0:38:56.476 --> 0:38:57.236
<v Speaker 5>then they wrote it.

0:38:57.196 --> 0:39:02.556
<v Speaker 3>Out the most unscientific people you can imagine. I'm not

0:39:02.596 --> 0:39:04.116
<v Speaker 3>sure it's any different today, is it.

0:39:04.876 --> 0:39:11.316
<v Speaker 5>And everybody reports for everybody else, and it was almost

0:39:11.316 --> 0:39:14.396
<v Speaker 5>like a comedy. You know, he was so stupid. I

0:39:14.476 --> 0:39:15.716
<v Speaker 5>got very angry about that.

0:39:24.716 --> 0:39:27.516
<v Speaker 3>Kellen died in two thousand and seven, and not long

0:39:27.516 --> 0:39:29.476
<v Speaker 3>ago I went to see his wife in that same

0:39:29.556 --> 0:39:33.316
<v Speaker 3>house up in the hills. His daughters were there as well.

0:39:33.876 --> 0:39:36.556
<v Speaker 3>They talked about how the Second War War never left him.

0:39:37.116 --> 0:39:39.956
<v Speaker 3>He had terrible memories, and at the very end of

0:39:39.996 --> 0:39:42.916
<v Speaker 3>his life, all those memories came back with a vengeance.

0:39:43.836 --> 0:39:47.676
<v Speaker 3>Kellen would lie in his bed in sunny, beautiful Santa Monica,

0:39:48.116 --> 0:39:50.116
<v Speaker 3>and he would dream that the Nazis were coming up

0:39:50.116 --> 0:39:50.476
<v Speaker 3>the hill.

0:39:50.876 --> 0:40:18.196
<v Speaker 1>To take him away.

0:40:19.916 --> 0:40:23.436
<v Speaker 3>You've been listening to Revisionist History. If you like what

0:40:23.476 --> 0:40:26.516
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0:40:26.756 --> 0:40:27.276
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0:40:28.196 --> 0:40:30.956
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0:40:31.276 --> 0:40:35.876
<v Speaker 3>at revisionististory dot com or on your favorite podcast app.

0:40:36.756 --> 0:40:40.516
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0:40:45.396 --> 0:40:49.396
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<v Speaker 3>gladwell

0:41:10.996 --> 0:41:11.036
<v Speaker 2>S.