1 00:00:15,356 --> 00:00:15,796 Speaker 1: Pushkin. 2 00:00:18,636 --> 00:00:22,516 Speaker 2: After we got married, we got an apartment on Hibachung, 3 00:00:22,636 --> 00:00:25,756 Speaker 2: near the Tending Market. It's not the best part of town, 4 00:00:25,796 --> 00:00:30,876 Speaker 2: but not the worst either. Very lively, bustling, noisy area. 5 00:00:31,436 --> 00:00:34,636 Speaker 3: That's my Elliot. She lives outside of Los Angeles now, 6 00:00:34,996 --> 00:00:38,436 Speaker 3: a graceful, elegant, middle aged woman. She's talking about her 7 00:00:38,476 --> 00:00:41,276 Speaker 3: life in Saigon in the early nineteen sixties, the first 8 00:00:41,316 --> 00:00:42,356 Speaker 3: days of the Vietnam War. 9 00:00:42,876 --> 00:00:46,036 Speaker 2: I had an apartment of my own. You know, life 10 00:00:46,076 --> 00:00:47,636 Speaker 2: couldn't have been better, I thought. 11 00:01:00,996 --> 00:01:05,036 Speaker 3: My name is Malcolm Glaubla. Welcome to Revisionist History, where 12 00:01:05,076 --> 00:01:07,756 Speaker 3: every week we go back and look at something misunderstood 13 00:01:07,996 --> 00:01:17,236 Speaker 3: or overlooked. This week's episode is about a secret Pentagon 14 00:01:17,316 --> 00:01:20,716 Speaker 3: study that a Vietnamese woman named May Elliott and two 15 00:01:20,756 --> 00:01:24,556 Speaker 3: others became tangled up in and what happened when it ended, 16 00:01:25,396 --> 00:01:32,316 Speaker 3: because there's a lot we can learn from them today. 17 00:01:38,556 --> 00:01:41,516 Speaker 3: The project was run by the Rand Corporation, a think 18 00:01:41,556 --> 00:01:45,036 Speaker 3: tank based in Santa Monica, California, home to an extraordinary 19 00:01:45,036 --> 00:01:49,196 Speaker 3: collection of intellectuals and thinkers and policy wonks. RAND is 20 00:01:49,236 --> 00:01:52,556 Speaker 3: the kind of place where everyone speaks in complete paragraphs, 21 00:01:52,956 --> 00:01:55,036 Speaker 3: and if you close your eyes as you listen. You 22 00:01:55,036 --> 00:01:56,956 Speaker 3: can almost see the footnotes at the end of each 23 00:01:56,956 --> 00:02:00,596 Speaker 3: one of those perfect paragraphs. The Defense Department were alatting 24 00:02:00,676 --> 00:02:04,196 Speaker 3: them heavily in those years. Still does tell me about 25 00:02:04,196 --> 00:02:05,996 Speaker 3: how you come to work for RAND. 26 00:02:06,996 --> 00:02:13,876 Speaker 2: Dave knew somebody McVie who was an officer, a graduate student. 27 00:02:14,556 --> 00:02:18,476 Speaker 3: Dave is Ma's husband, an American academic. McVie stands for 28 00:02:18,516 --> 00:02:23,156 Speaker 3: a military Assistants Command of Vietnam Headquarters for the Vietnam War. 29 00:02:23,396 --> 00:02:26,756 Speaker 2: So anyway, Dave knew this guy who was also a 30 00:02:26,796 --> 00:02:32,076 Speaker 2: graduate student doing his military stint, and his wife, an American, 31 00:02:32,276 --> 00:02:33,276 Speaker 2: was working at RAND. 32 00:02:33,916 --> 00:02:36,796 Speaker 3: My Elliott is Vietnamese and she ends up working at 33 00:02:36,836 --> 00:02:39,716 Speaker 3: Randon Saigon for a man named Leon Garray, one of 34 00:02:39,796 --> 00:02:43,756 Speaker 3: Rand's most brilliant academics. He ran the Secret Study and 35 00:02:43,796 --> 00:02:46,556 Speaker 3: he's a big part of this story. Here's an interview 36 00:02:46,636 --> 00:02:48,956 Speaker 3: Rand recorded with Garray just before he died in two 37 00:02:48,996 --> 00:02:49,836 Speaker 3: thousand and seven. 38 00:02:50,716 --> 00:02:53,636 Speaker 2: And how did you end up getting into Vietnam? 39 00:02:54,116 --> 00:02:58,156 Speaker 4: I got drafted. Well, I was semi volunteered, but I 40 00:02:58,196 --> 00:03:01,516 Speaker 4: got drafted. The Chief of Air Force Intelligence asked me 41 00:03:01,596 --> 00:03:01,916 Speaker 4: to go. 42 00:03:05,476 --> 00:03:07,996 Speaker 3: Garray set up shop in an old French style villain 43 00:03:08,036 --> 00:03:11,916 Speaker 3: near the Presidential Palace in downtown Saigon, one seventy six 44 00:03:12,036 --> 00:03:15,876 Speaker 3: Rue Pasteur. The house is still there, flame trees and 45 00:03:15,916 --> 00:03:20,356 Speaker 3: tamarin line, the street quiet, discreet. This was in nineteen 46 00:03:20,396 --> 00:03:24,436 Speaker 3: sixty four, just when Saigon was beginning to fall apart. Still, 47 00:03:24,716 --> 00:03:26,636 Speaker 3: if you were a Westerner, you might go to the 48 00:03:26,676 --> 00:03:30,156 Speaker 3: exclusive Cerx sportif on the humid afternoons, to sit by 49 00:03:30,196 --> 00:03:32,556 Speaker 3: the pool or by tennis, or have a cocktail in 50 00:03:32,556 --> 00:03:35,436 Speaker 3: the veranda of the Continental Hotel. Maybe you'd hear a 51 00:03:35,436 --> 00:03:38,436 Speaker 3: bomb or two oft in the distance. Later, of course, 52 00:03:38,916 --> 00:03:40,156 Speaker 3: things would get far worse. 53 00:03:40,876 --> 00:03:44,436 Speaker 4: The house we lived in in Saigon was directly under 54 00:03:44,476 --> 00:03:47,596 Speaker 4: the trajectory of the rockets that they yet congo firing 55 00:03:47,636 --> 00:03:50,876 Speaker 4: at the palace, so we had a greative experience of 56 00:03:50,956 --> 00:03:53,276 Speaker 4: ducking under the dining room table. 57 00:03:54,276 --> 00:03:56,436 Speaker 3: Gray had been working in the Santa Monica office of 58 00:03:56,516 --> 00:03:59,396 Speaker 3: RAND when he was summoned to Vietnam. It was a 59 00:03:59,476 --> 00:04:02,676 Speaker 3: job no one really wanted. Who would leave southern California 60 00:04:02,716 --> 00:04:05,796 Speaker 3: for Saigon. The Pentagon wanted him to run a project 61 00:04:05,836 --> 00:04:09,916 Speaker 3: interviewing Vietcong prisoners and defectors. Jumped at the chance. 62 00:04:10,276 --> 00:04:13,996 Speaker 4: I had to organize my own team of Vietnamese we 63 00:04:13,996 --> 00:04:20,076 Speaker 4: were producing interview reports or interrogation reports for the US, 64 00:04:20,436 --> 00:04:23,356 Speaker 4: for Rand and for the Chief of the Intelligence of 65 00:04:23,396 --> 00:04:26,636 Speaker 4: the Vietnamese ARA Forces. They all got copies. 66 00:04:27,196 --> 00:04:31,316 Speaker 3: Later, Leongerrey got into trouble, or at least into an argument, 67 00:04:31,956 --> 00:04:34,276 Speaker 3: and Rand brought in a third person to fix things, 68 00:04:34,996 --> 00:04:35,756 Speaker 3: Conrad Kellen. 69 00:04:36,516 --> 00:04:39,156 Speaker 5: I was supposed to be in Doctor Nathan by Leon Golray. 70 00:04:39,396 --> 00:04:42,756 Speaker 5: He was supposed to tell me about Vietnam. But I 71 00:04:42,836 --> 00:04:46,996 Speaker 5: got very quickly the feeling that he was extremely partisan, 72 00:04:47,236 --> 00:04:49,516 Speaker 5: you know, for the for the South, which of course 73 00:04:49,676 --> 00:04:50,556 Speaker 5: was part of the show. 74 00:04:52,076 --> 00:04:55,556 Speaker 3: That woman's voice, you hear, that's my Elliott again. She 75 00:04:55,716 --> 00:04:58,916 Speaker 3: interviewed Kellen in Santa Monica after he retired from RAND 76 00:04:59,116 --> 00:05:01,996 Speaker 3: for a history she wrote called Rand in Southeast Asia, 77 00:05:02,356 --> 00:05:04,876 Speaker 3: a History of the Vietnam War, A brilliant book. 78 00:05:04,916 --> 00:05:07,956 Speaker 5: By the way, he was sort of mister Vietnam at Rand, 79 00:05:08,156 --> 00:05:12,916 Speaker 5: you know, and missed the saus Vietnam, and I sort 80 00:05:12,956 --> 00:05:24,556 Speaker 5: of became his sort of successor in a way. 81 00:05:24,636 --> 00:05:27,756 Speaker 3: The story that follows is about these three people, May 82 00:05:27,836 --> 00:05:32,916 Speaker 3: Elliott leungar Ray Conrad Kellen, and how their lives intersected 83 00:05:33,196 --> 00:05:36,316 Speaker 3: over a minor and forgotten episode in the Vietnam War 84 00:05:36,636 --> 00:05:40,996 Speaker 3: called the Vietcong Motivation and Morale Project. I say minor 85 00:05:41,036 --> 00:05:43,556 Speaker 3: because what happened in that French villa on one seven 86 00:05:43,716 --> 00:05:46,956 Speaker 3: six Rue Pastor didn't swing the war one way or another. 87 00:05:47,756 --> 00:05:49,756 Speaker 3: Nobody who was part of the study ever fired a 88 00:05:49,756 --> 00:05:53,116 Speaker 3: gun or dropped a bomb. But the story of the 89 00:05:53,116 --> 00:05:55,836 Speaker 3: Morale Project says a lot about something that has obsessed 90 00:05:55,916 --> 00:06:00,396 Speaker 3: us ever since intelligence failure. Why is it so hard 91 00:06:00,436 --> 00:06:05,036 Speaker 3: to tell what your enemy is thinking? That question came 92 00:06:05,076 --> 00:06:07,756 Speaker 3: up after nine to eleven during the Two Gulf Wars, 93 00:06:07,796 --> 00:06:10,116 Speaker 3: It came up again in Afghanistan in It comes up 94 00:06:10,156 --> 00:06:13,396 Speaker 3: today with ISIS. And every time we get it wrong, 95 00:06:13,716 --> 00:06:17,156 Speaker 3: every time our enemies take us by surprise, we always say, 96 00:06:17,356 --> 00:06:20,236 Speaker 3: if only we knew more about them, If only we 97 00:06:20,316 --> 00:06:24,076 Speaker 3: had more information about our adversaries, more spies in the ground, 98 00:06:24,236 --> 00:06:31,876 Speaker 3: more satellite images, more intercepted communications, more of everything. Do 99 00:06:31,916 --> 00:06:34,876 Speaker 3: you know how many federal government organizations there are just 100 00:06:35,076 --> 00:06:39,836 Speaker 3: devoted to counterterrorism? Twelve hundred and seventy one and another 101 00:06:39,996 --> 00:06:43,396 Speaker 3: nineteen hundred and thirty one private companies. Do you know 102 00:06:43,436 --> 00:06:47,676 Speaker 3: how many Americans hold top secret security clearances? Eight hundred 103 00:06:47,756 --> 00:06:51,476 Speaker 3: and fifty four thousand. Those numbers all come from an 104 00:06:51,516 --> 00:06:55,316 Speaker 3: extraordinary washed and post investigation from six years ago. And 105 00:06:55,436 --> 00:06:59,236 Speaker 3: here's the most incredible statistic of all. Just since nine 106 00:06:59,276 --> 00:07:03,036 Speaker 3: to eleven, just to Howe's top secret intelligence work, and 107 00:07:03,356 --> 00:07:07,876 Speaker 3: just in the Washington, DC area, seventeen million square feet 108 00:07:07,916 --> 00:07:11,756 Speaker 3: of new office space has been built to house intelligence operations. 109 00:07:12,156 --> 00:07:17,716 Speaker 3: Seventeen million. We want to know everything about our enemies. 110 00:07:18,196 --> 00:07:21,156 Speaker 3: But what the viet Cong Motivation and Morale Project tells 111 00:07:21,236 --> 00:07:24,316 Speaker 3: us is this, you can know everything there is to 112 00:07:24,316 --> 00:07:28,036 Speaker 3: know about your enemy, everything, and that still won't solve 113 00:07:28,076 --> 00:07:37,236 Speaker 3: your problem. Vietnam was a French colony from eighteen eighty 114 00:07:37,276 --> 00:07:41,236 Speaker 3: seven until nineteen fifty four. Then the French lost control 115 00:07:41,276 --> 00:07:44,796 Speaker 3: of the country. It was split in half. Communists took 116 00:07:44,796 --> 00:07:48,036 Speaker 3: over the north, an American backed regime came into power 117 00:07:48,076 --> 00:07:51,876 Speaker 3: in the south. Over the next decade, conditions inside South 118 00:07:51,956 --> 00:07:56,836 Speaker 3: Vietnam slowly deteriorated. The government was unpopular, they were protests 119 00:07:56,836 --> 00:08:00,076 Speaker 3: in the streets, a military coup, and the North Vietnamese 120 00:08:00,116 --> 00:08:02,996 Speaker 3: started setting guerrillas known as the Viet Coong over the 121 00:08:03,036 --> 00:08:05,916 Speaker 3: border to try and recruit South Vietnamese to their cause. 122 00:08:06,836 --> 00:08:08,996 Speaker 3: That's why the Vietnam War at least the US and 123 00:08:09,516 --> 00:08:12,476 Speaker 3: there starts in the nearly nineteen sixties because the United 124 00:08:12,476 --> 00:08:15,556 Speaker 3: States feels compelled to help the South turn back the. 125 00:08:15,556 --> 00:08:16,196 Speaker 1: Via con. 126 00:08:17,596 --> 00:08:21,516 Speaker 3: Wars are usually about territory. A country X invades country 127 00:08:21,596 --> 00:08:24,756 Speaker 3: Y country why fights back? But this is a weird 128 00:08:24,836 --> 00:08:27,916 Speaker 3: kind of war. The US and the South Vietnamese have 129 00:08:27,996 --> 00:08:31,396 Speaker 3: no intention of invading the North. They decide instead that 130 00:08:31,476 --> 00:08:34,516 Speaker 3: they'll just bomb the North Vietnamese until they give up, 131 00:08:34,876 --> 00:08:38,196 Speaker 3: until they realize that exporting gorillas over the border isn't 132 00:08:38,196 --> 00:08:41,676 Speaker 3: worth it. The Vietnam War is a war of persuasion, 133 00:08:42,236 --> 00:08:45,476 Speaker 3: a crude kind of persuasion. The goal is to break 134 00:08:45,556 --> 00:08:46,596 Speaker 3: the other side's will. 135 00:08:46,876 --> 00:08:50,316 Speaker 2: The new theory is that revolutionary development may look good 136 00:08:50,356 --> 00:08:51,596 Speaker 2: on paper, but. 137 00:08:51,636 --> 00:08:55,196 Speaker 6: Nothing pacifies quite like old fashioned military might. 138 00:08:55,756 --> 00:08:57,956 Speaker 4: And alive horse of more than eight thousand men. 139 00:08:57,996 --> 00:09:01,476 Speaker 2: Today Titans hold on a Batangan peninsula on South Vietnam 140 00:09:01,556 --> 00:09:02,236 Speaker 2: central coast. 141 00:09:03,716 --> 00:09:06,396 Speaker 3: But if your goal is to break someone's will, how 142 00:09:06,396 --> 00:09:08,876 Speaker 3: do you know if his strategy is working? In the 143 00:09:08,916 --> 00:09:12,116 Speaker 3: earth early nineteen sixties, when the US first starts sending 144 00:09:12,116 --> 00:09:15,356 Speaker 3: troops to fight the Viatkong, there was a problem. No 145 00:09:15,356 --> 00:09:18,436 Speaker 3: one knew anything about the Viat Coong. Almost known of 146 00:09:18,516 --> 00:09:22,556 Speaker 3: the Pentagon or the State Department even spoke Vietnamese. The 147 00:09:22,596 --> 00:09:25,436 Speaker 3: special advisor to the American General in South Vietnam at 148 00:09:25,476 --> 00:09:28,756 Speaker 3: the time was an Australian called Colonel Sarong. And you 149 00:09:28,756 --> 00:09:32,196 Speaker 3: know what he said. I'll quote him directly. These people 150 00:09:32,276 --> 00:09:35,796 Speaker 3: are simply what we call in many countries juvenile delinquents. 151 00:09:37,356 --> 00:09:39,676 Speaker 3: That's the best he could offer in terms of intelligence 152 00:09:39,716 --> 00:09:42,716 Speaker 3: about the Viet Kong. So what do you do if 153 00:09:42,716 --> 00:09:45,956 Speaker 3: you're bombing someone you know nothing about and you want 154 00:09:45,996 --> 00:09:49,876 Speaker 3: to know how this unknown person feels. You call in 155 00:09:49,916 --> 00:09:54,476 Speaker 3: the Rand Corporation. So Rand rents Sevilla on Ruepasteur and 156 00:09:54,516 --> 00:10:00,636 Speaker 3: brings in Leon Garray to run the show. Gray was 157 00:10:00,716 --> 00:10:04,476 Speaker 3: Russian by birth. His family history was remarkable. His parents 158 00:10:04,476 --> 00:10:08,156 Speaker 3: were Mensheviks. The Mensheviks were the socialist moderates who split 159 00:10:08,196 --> 00:10:10,036 Speaker 3: off from Lenin during the Bloshebic Revolution. 160 00:10:10,516 --> 00:10:12,276 Speaker 6: They were in Russia during the revolution. 161 00:10:12,716 --> 00:10:16,356 Speaker 3: This is Leon Garrey's son, Daniel. He's a national security 162 00:10:16,356 --> 00:10:19,996 Speaker 3: and policy expert with the Lexington Institute in Arlington, Virginia. 163 00:10:20,196 --> 00:10:22,436 Speaker 6: They participated in the revolution. In fact, my grandparents met 164 00:10:22,476 --> 00:10:27,556 Speaker 6: in prison. My grandmother used to smoke unfiltered cigarettes and 165 00:10:27,556 --> 00:10:29,636 Speaker 6: a little holder and cut them in half. 166 00:10:29,796 --> 00:10:30,836 Speaker 3: They were living in Moscow. 167 00:10:30,996 --> 00:10:33,556 Speaker 6: Are at Moscow, Yeah, are at Moscow, and they were, 168 00:10:33,756 --> 00:10:37,076 Speaker 6: you know, fighting the system. He my grandfather ran an 169 00:10:37,116 --> 00:10:40,236 Speaker 6: I legal printing press and the whole thing. 170 00:10:40,596 --> 00:10:43,636 Speaker 3: In nineteen twenty two, just after Leon is born, the 171 00:10:43,676 --> 00:10:45,236 Speaker 3: Garrays are kicked out of the country. 172 00:10:45,436 --> 00:10:49,476 Speaker 6: They ended up next in Berlin, and in nineteen thirty 173 00:10:49,516 --> 00:10:54,156 Speaker 6: three they shut the doors, locked the building up and left, 174 00:10:54,676 --> 00:10:57,996 Speaker 6: just walked away and went to Paris. And then they 175 00:10:58,036 --> 00:11:02,036 Speaker 6: got out of Paris on the same train that Humphrey 176 00:11:02,036 --> 00:11:07,676 Speaker 6: Bogart did in Castle Blanca, heading south and meandered south, 177 00:11:07,996 --> 00:11:10,636 Speaker 6: went through Spain to Portugal and then got to the 178 00:11:10,756 --> 00:11:14,036 Speaker 6: US after that. So they stayed on one step ahead 179 00:11:14,116 --> 00:11:19,516 Speaker 6: of the tide of evil for about almost twenty years. Wow. 180 00:11:19,756 --> 00:11:22,956 Speaker 3: Yeah, which of the bolsheviksty He must have known some 181 00:11:22,996 --> 00:11:23,436 Speaker 3: of the in person. 182 00:11:23,516 --> 00:11:25,436 Speaker 6: Oh, he knew Albin person if they knew Trotsky, they 183 00:11:25,476 --> 00:11:29,196 Speaker 6: knew Lenin, they knew Stalin, they knew the whole, the 184 00:11:29,276 --> 00:11:33,116 Speaker 6: whole crowd. Man, Your left is royalty, Yeah right. 185 00:11:33,676 --> 00:11:36,196 Speaker 3: The Grays end up in New York City, ninety sixth 186 00:11:36,236 --> 00:11:39,396 Speaker 3: and Broadway, deep in the world of Eastern European emigreys. 187 00:11:40,156 --> 00:11:42,756 Speaker 3: Leon serves in the army, fights in the Battle of 188 00:11:42,796 --> 00:11:45,996 Speaker 3: the Bulge, and ends up in counterintelligence. How do you 189 00:11:45,996 --> 00:11:48,156 Speaker 3: think the refugee experience shaped your father? 190 00:11:49,076 --> 00:11:54,916 Speaker 6: Number of ways. I think the overriding one was we've 191 00:11:55,116 --> 00:11:59,716 Speaker 6: retreated this far and no farther. So it was it 192 00:11:59,836 --> 00:12:02,556 Speaker 6: was a view of sort of America, not just as 193 00:12:02,596 --> 00:12:05,956 Speaker 6: city on the hill, not just but you know, there's 194 00:12:05,956 --> 00:12:08,996 Speaker 6: nowhere left to retreat to. The country needs to be 195 00:12:09,436 --> 00:12:13,076 Speaker 6: truly defended. He got a home, he got a country, 196 00:12:13,516 --> 00:12:17,356 Speaker 6: he got acceptance. All that was terribly, terribly important. 197 00:12:18,356 --> 00:12:20,236 Speaker 3: So this is who Ran puts in charge of the 198 00:12:20,316 --> 00:12:24,916 Speaker 3: Vietnam operation. Leon Garay a patriot in the way that 199 00:12:24,956 --> 00:12:26,756 Speaker 3: only an immigrant can be a patriot. 200 00:12:27,116 --> 00:12:31,316 Speaker 2: He was suave, he was very charming. He had a 201 00:12:32,076 --> 00:12:39,676 Speaker 2: great sense of humor, very articulate, energetic, enthusiastic. So personally 202 00:12:40,076 --> 00:12:42,436 Speaker 2: I liked him. The only thing I didn't like about 203 00:12:42,516 --> 00:12:44,596 Speaker 2: him was the fact that he was a great ladies man, 204 00:12:44,836 --> 00:12:48,596 Speaker 2: and there were a lot of rumors about that. But 205 00:12:49,356 --> 00:12:51,716 Speaker 2: as a person I liked him. 206 00:12:52,116 --> 00:12:56,836 Speaker 3: Gray spoke, German, Russian, French, all fluently, big thick head 207 00:12:56,876 --> 00:13:00,436 Speaker 3: of black hair, that amazing accent. He was the embodiment 208 00:13:00,436 --> 00:13:01,596 Speaker 3: of the European intellectual. 209 00:13:01,836 --> 00:13:04,276 Speaker 6: He had an amazing kind of research all of his life, 210 00:13:04,316 --> 00:13:08,036 Speaker 6: where there would be stacks of documents in Russian innings 211 00:13:08,516 --> 00:13:10,596 Speaker 6: on his desk and he literally re talking to you 212 00:13:10,916 --> 00:13:12,556 Speaker 6: and it would sort of be, well, you know, there 213 00:13:12,596 --> 00:13:15,076 Speaker 6: was this recent thing, and it's an idetic memory. But 214 00:13:15,116 --> 00:13:17,556 Speaker 6: he was certainly kind of librarian encyclopedic in that kind 215 00:13:17,556 --> 00:13:18,916 Speaker 6: of set. 216 00:13:19,276 --> 00:13:23,636 Speaker 3: Gray meets Robert McNamara, President Johnson's Secretary of Defense and 217 00:13:23,716 --> 00:13:25,796 Speaker 3: tells him what he thinks needs to be done. That 218 00:13:25,916 --> 00:13:28,516 Speaker 3: is to really answer the question of how the bombing 219 00:13:28,556 --> 00:13:29,636 Speaker 3: is affecting the Viet Cong. 220 00:13:30,116 --> 00:13:32,316 Speaker 4: That's the question I remembered very clearly. 221 00:13:32,556 --> 00:13:34,476 Speaker 3: Again, this is from the interview Garray did with the 222 00:13:34,556 --> 00:13:37,556 Speaker 3: Rand Archives a decade ago at the end of his life. 223 00:13:37,356 --> 00:13:39,356 Speaker 4: And he said, what is your funding? I told him 224 00:13:39,396 --> 00:13:42,196 Speaker 4: he had one hundred thousand dollars. He said, what would 225 00:13:42,236 --> 00:13:45,996 Speaker 4: you do with a million? That was his question. I said, 226 00:13:46,036 --> 00:13:47,396 Speaker 4: that's a new moral of this stuff, and I have 227 00:13:47,476 --> 00:13:49,836 Speaker 4: more people doing the interviewing, says, you have it. 228 00:13:54,116 --> 00:13:57,156 Speaker 3: A million dollars in Saigon in the mid sixties was 229 00:13:57,156 --> 00:14:00,556 Speaker 3: a king's ransom. So Gray hires a team of locals 230 00:14:00,796 --> 00:14:04,116 Speaker 3: to fan out across the South Vietnamese countryside to interview 231 00:14:04,116 --> 00:14:08,196 Speaker 3: defectors from North Vietnam and captured via Cong guerrillas. That's 232 00:14:08,196 --> 00:14:11,476 Speaker 3: where my elliot comes. She was one of Garay's interviewers, 233 00:14:11,956 --> 00:14:15,276 Speaker 3: and her story is every bit as fascinating as Leon Garays. 234 00:14:15,876 --> 00:14:20,796 Speaker 2: My father was appointed to Haifhog. He became mayor of Haiphong. 235 00:14:21,956 --> 00:14:24,996 Speaker 3: She grew up in the north before the country was divided. 236 00:14:25,276 --> 00:14:28,436 Speaker 3: Her father was part of the French colonial administration, and. 237 00:14:28,436 --> 00:14:30,876 Speaker 2: As mayor he had a lot of authority. He was 238 00:14:30,916 --> 00:14:34,316 Speaker 2: almost like the king of that little town. And we 239 00:14:34,396 --> 00:14:40,156 Speaker 2: live in an enormous house with an enormous garden front 240 00:14:40,196 --> 00:14:44,316 Speaker 2: and back, with a staff of servants and even a 241 00:14:44,356 --> 00:14:48,236 Speaker 2: platoono guards, you know, who stood guard outside our gate. 242 00:14:48,796 --> 00:14:52,836 Speaker 2: So that was really the best time of my life. 243 00:14:53,996 --> 00:14:56,796 Speaker 3: Then the French get defeated in the north by the communists. 244 00:14:57,076 --> 00:14:58,956 Speaker 3: Vietnam is divided in two. 245 00:14:59,076 --> 00:15:03,076 Speaker 2: It happened, so suddenly we just packed up and left 246 00:15:03,116 --> 00:15:08,156 Speaker 2: everything and we lost everything. So when it happened, we 247 00:15:08,156 --> 00:15:10,276 Speaker 2: were in a panic, didn't know what to do. My 248 00:15:10,396 --> 00:15:14,116 Speaker 2: father had, of course collaborated with the French. I didn't know, 249 00:15:14,196 --> 00:15:16,276 Speaker 2: you know, I didn't understand a thing, but my father 250 00:15:16,436 --> 00:15:18,276 Speaker 2: was a fait that the communists would come in and 251 00:15:18,836 --> 00:15:25,476 Speaker 2: kill him. 252 00:15:26,396 --> 00:15:28,596 Speaker 3: My Elliott didn't come to the RAND project as a 253 00:15:28,636 --> 00:15:32,276 Speaker 3: blank slate. She came with a history. She had to 254 00:15:32,316 --> 00:15:34,716 Speaker 3: flee for her life from the communists in the north. 255 00:15:34,996 --> 00:15:38,116 Speaker 3: Now she's been hired by RAND to figure out the communists, 256 00:15:38,636 --> 00:15:42,676 Speaker 3: the same people who chased her family away. The interviewers 257 00:15:42,676 --> 00:15:45,796 Speaker 3: would go out in teams of three or four. Sometimes 258 00:15:45,796 --> 00:15:48,196 Speaker 3: the groups would stay in Saigon and go to the 259 00:15:48,196 --> 00:15:51,796 Speaker 3: prison where captured Via Kong were held. Other times they 260 00:15:51,836 --> 00:15:54,556 Speaker 3: would head out into the countryside, hitching a ride on 261 00:15:54,596 --> 00:15:58,636 Speaker 3: military planes to the Mekong Delta. The interviews were taped, 262 00:15:59,036 --> 00:16:02,876 Speaker 3: did offer their subjects cigarettes. Sometimes they'd sit outside under 263 00:16:02,916 --> 00:16:07,476 Speaker 3: the trees. It was friendly, not confrontational. The interviewers made 264 00:16:07,476 --> 00:16:10,076 Speaker 3: it clear that they were only doing a research project. 265 00:16:10,676 --> 00:16:14,276 Speaker 3: If the subject was uninteresting or reluctant, the sessions would 266 00:16:14,316 --> 00:16:18,436 Speaker 3: be short. Other times they might last for days. Then 267 00:16:18,476 --> 00:16:21,036 Speaker 3: it was back to the villa on Route Pasteur, where 268 00:16:21,036 --> 00:16:32,756 Speaker 3: the interviews would be transcribed, translated, and edited. That's my 269 00:16:32,836 --> 00:16:35,956 Speaker 3: Elliott in the Central Mekong Delta into being a former 270 00:16:36,036 --> 00:16:38,916 Speaker 3: company commander for the two hundred and sixty first Battalion 271 00:16:39,236 --> 00:16:40,556 Speaker 3: of the North Vietnamese Army. 272 00:16:40,676 --> 00:16:44,716 Speaker 2: There was a lot of questions about bombing, What weapons 273 00:16:44,716 --> 00:16:47,716 Speaker 2: do you feel the most, what had the most effect 274 00:16:47,756 --> 00:16:51,036 Speaker 2: on your unit and your operations? And with the North 275 00:16:51,116 --> 00:16:55,116 Speaker 2: Vietnamese who infiltrated into the South, tell us about conditions 276 00:16:55,476 --> 00:16:58,436 Speaker 2: you march from the North to the South with the 277 00:16:58,556 --> 00:17:02,356 Speaker 2: bombings you know along the way. Things like that. 278 00:17:07,316 --> 00:17:11,756 Speaker 3: The Morale Project would eventually put sixty two thousand pages 279 00:17:11,756 --> 00:17:16,116 Speaker 3: of transcripts interviews with captured via Kong and others sixty 280 00:17:16,356 --> 00:17:21,116 Speaker 3: two thousand pages. This isn't some focus group conducted by 281 00:17:21,156 --> 00:17:24,196 Speaker 3: a PR firm where a few dozen people are interviewed 282 00:17:24,196 --> 00:17:27,156 Speaker 3: for an hour. This is one of the most extraordinary 283 00:17:27,476 --> 00:17:33,516 Speaker 3: encyclopedic detailed portraits of an enemy ever created. Remember, no 284 00:17:33,596 --> 00:17:36,156 Speaker 3: one in Washington really knew anything about Vietnam in the 285 00:17:36,156 --> 00:17:39,396 Speaker 3: early nineteen sixties. Now there was a million dollar operation 286 00:17:39,476 --> 00:17:43,316 Speaker 3: on the Rue pasteur painting a living, breathing portrait of. 287 00:17:43,356 --> 00:17:44,036 Speaker 1: The other side. 288 00:17:44,796 --> 00:17:50,836 Speaker 3: The stuff was gold. Gray takes the results and makes 289 00:17:50,836 --> 00:17:55,396 Speaker 3: the rounds. His favorite statistic was this. When Rand started 290 00:17:55,396 --> 00:17:59,516 Speaker 3: as study, sixty five percent of defectors and prisoners believed 291 00:17:59,516 --> 00:18:02,556 Speaker 3: the Via Kong could win. After a year of heavy 292 00:18:02,636 --> 00:18:06,316 Speaker 3: US bombing, that number was down to twenty percent. The 293 00:18:06,476 --> 00:18:10,596 Speaker 3: enemy was on the ropes. He's the Air Force Army 294 00:18:11,196 --> 00:18:14,636 Speaker 3: US Embassy, then off to Honolulu, to the headquarters of 295 00:18:14,636 --> 00:18:18,196 Speaker 3: the Army of the Pacific RAND in Santa Monica, Washington, 296 00:18:18,276 --> 00:18:20,356 Speaker 3: d C. To the Pentagon, and to the White House. 297 00:18:20,876 --> 00:18:23,836 Speaker 3: Helicopters would pick him up in Saigon and whisk him 298 00:18:23,836 --> 00:18:27,316 Speaker 3: to aircraft carriers at the Villa and Rupasteur. He holds 299 00:18:27,316 --> 00:18:30,636 Speaker 3: cocktail parties for everyone who is anyone in South Vietnam, 300 00:18:31,316 --> 00:18:35,356 Speaker 3: Henry Kissinger, Walter Mondale, the US Senator later to become 301 00:18:35,436 --> 00:18:40,556 Speaker 3: Jimmy Carter's Vice president. Gray meets with visiting journalists, CIA officers. 302 00:18:40,916 --> 00:18:42,276 Speaker 3: His stuff goes right to the top. 303 00:18:42,596 --> 00:18:46,076 Speaker 4: Well, we've had an interesting report from a man named 304 00:18:46,156 --> 00:18:50,036 Speaker 4: Goray who works for the Rand Corporation, and wemired. 305 00:18:50,676 --> 00:18:55,116 Speaker 3: That's Robert McNamara, Johnson's Defense secretary. From tapes made of 306 00:18:55,116 --> 00:18:58,916 Speaker 3: White House conversations in nineteen sixty five and sixty six, 307 00:18:59,556 --> 00:19:02,876 Speaker 3: President Lyndon Johnson decides to pull the United States deeper 308 00:19:02,916 --> 00:19:06,596 Speaker 3: and deeper into Vietnam, and the story was that LBJ 309 00:19:06,796 --> 00:19:09,076 Speaker 3: used to walk around with a summary of Grey's fine 310 00:19:09,716 --> 00:19:15,636 Speaker 3: in his back pocket. Wars require public justification. If you're 311 00:19:15,636 --> 00:19:18,196 Speaker 3: going to put thousands of lives at risk, you need 312 00:19:18,236 --> 00:19:21,676 Speaker 3: to explain to your citizens just what you're doing. And 313 00:19:21,716 --> 00:19:24,716 Speaker 3: that's what Leon Garret offered in the crucial early years 314 00:19:24,796 --> 00:19:33,836 Speaker 3: of the Vietnam War. He offered justification. Enter Conrad Kellen, 315 00:19:34,556 --> 00:19:36,076 Speaker 3: the third person in our story. 316 00:19:38,076 --> 00:19:41,756 Speaker 5: When did I come to rand Oh? Well, I lived 317 00:19:41,796 --> 00:19:45,716 Speaker 5: in New York at sixty four. I think it was. 318 00:19:46,916 --> 00:19:50,036 Speaker 3: Kellen was a battered veteran of World War Two and 319 00:19:50,116 --> 00:19:52,556 Speaker 3: a little bit of a legend. I once spent two 320 00:19:52,596 --> 00:19:55,756 Speaker 3: weeks in Los Angeles just going from one person's house 321 00:19:55,796 --> 00:19:59,636 Speaker 3: to the next, asking for their memories of Kellen. Everybody 322 00:19:59,676 --> 00:20:02,876 Speaker 3: remembers Conrad Keillen. If you took the absolute best of 323 00:20:02,956 --> 00:20:05,916 Speaker 3: nineteenth century Central Europe and put it in a time 324 00:20:05,996 --> 00:20:09,076 Speaker 3: machine that opened its doors in nineteen sixties southern California, 325 00:20:09,876 --> 00:20:10,596 Speaker 3: that would be Kellen. 326 00:20:11,156 --> 00:20:14,556 Speaker 5: I read the paper said some people in Washington, some 327 00:20:14,596 --> 00:20:20,596 Speaker 5: smart boys, had showered the North with millions of leaflets 328 00:20:21,796 --> 00:20:24,596 Speaker 5: in which they had told the Vietnamese they should lay 329 00:20:24,636 --> 00:20:29,916 Speaker 5: down their arms because we were good people and their 330 00:20:30,196 --> 00:20:33,556 Speaker 5: leaders were bad people. You know the ordinary nonsense, and 331 00:20:33,836 --> 00:20:35,876 Speaker 5: they should stop fighting the war. 332 00:20:37,316 --> 00:20:40,196 Speaker 3: Kellen served in US Army intelligence in the Second World War, 333 00:20:40,676 --> 00:20:44,556 Speaker 3: specializing in psychological warfare. So later when he reads how 334 00:20:44,596 --> 00:20:47,676 Speaker 3: the US was using leaflets in Vietnam, he gets angry, 335 00:20:48,036 --> 00:20:48,996 Speaker 3: We're doing it all wrong. 336 00:20:49,276 --> 00:20:50,996 Speaker 5: And so I wrote a letter to the New York 337 00:20:51,036 --> 00:20:57,076 Speaker 5: Times and said it was obvious nonsense to shower large 338 00:20:57,156 --> 00:21:00,796 Speaker 5: numbers of soldiers with a leaflet saying stop that war. 339 00:21:00,916 --> 00:21:03,756 Speaker 5: Soldiers don't stop wars, so this would begin wars. And 340 00:21:03,796 --> 00:21:07,396 Speaker 5: soldiers don't stop wars. So if you want to stop 341 00:21:07,396 --> 00:21:09,996 Speaker 5: a war, you have to do it differently. So I 342 00:21:09,996 --> 00:21:12,396 Speaker 5: got a call from them here, from the RAM people, 343 00:21:12,436 --> 00:21:16,036 Speaker 5: and they wanted me to come and be part of 344 00:21:16,076 --> 00:21:19,156 Speaker 5: the system, and that I said, okay, So came to 345 00:21:19,276 --> 00:21:20,036 Speaker 5: Los Angeles. 346 00:21:22,316 --> 00:21:26,076 Speaker 3: Kellen grew up in Berlin, wealthy cultured. His father owned 347 00:21:26,116 --> 00:21:29,476 Speaker 3: a big brewery. His full name was Katzen ellen Bogan, 348 00:21:29,956 --> 00:21:31,636 Speaker 3: and the Cats and ellen Boguns were one of the 349 00:21:31,676 --> 00:21:35,756 Speaker 3: great Jewish families of Europe. But when Hitler came to power, 350 00:21:35,956 --> 00:21:39,116 Speaker 3: Kellen packed his bags. He said later that he knew 351 00:21:39,196 --> 00:21:42,156 Speaker 3: on some instinctive level that things would not end well 352 00:21:42,196 --> 00:21:42,636 Speaker 3: for the Jews. 353 00:21:42,676 --> 00:21:43,196 Speaker 1: In Germany. 354 00:21:43,836 --> 00:21:46,556 Speaker 3: He goes to Paris becomes friends with the French writer 355 00:21:46,636 --> 00:21:49,396 Speaker 3: Jean Cocteau. His life is full of moments like this. 356 00:21:50,556 --> 00:21:52,596 Speaker 3: He gets on a boat to America and meets the 357 00:21:52,636 --> 00:21:55,956 Speaker 3: mobster Dutch Schultz, who offers him a job. He arrives 358 00:21:55,956 --> 00:21:59,356 Speaker 3: in New York and works for the legendary investor Benjamin Graham, 359 00:21:59,556 --> 00:22:01,996 Speaker 3: who was the mentor of Warren Buffett. He goes to 360 00:22:02,036 --> 00:22:04,916 Speaker 3: California and is the private secretary of the Nobel Prize 361 00:22:04,956 --> 00:22:12,156 Speaker 3: winning novelist Thomas Mann. Kellen was impossibly handsome, dashing over 362 00:22:12,236 --> 00:22:15,956 Speaker 3: six feet tall. He was an expert in golf, handwriting analysis, 363 00:22:15,996 --> 00:22:20,356 Speaker 3: and ferraris. Both his sisters earned PhDs from Berkeley, one 364 00:22:20,396 --> 00:22:23,796 Speaker 3: in chemistry, the other in biology. His brother escapes from 365 00:22:23,876 --> 00:22:26,596 Speaker 3: Nazi Germany lands in New York, and if you go 366 00:22:26,636 --> 00:22:29,356 Speaker 3: online and look up the assets of his personal foundation, 367 00:22:29,956 --> 00:22:34,076 Speaker 3: it's six hundred and sixty five million dollars. His stepmother 368 00:22:34,196 --> 00:22:37,476 Speaker 3: was painted by Renoirs, a family friend. He was cousins 369 00:22:37,476 --> 00:22:41,516 Speaker 3: with Einstein. I mean, after a bit, it gets ridiculous. 370 00:22:45,796 --> 00:22:48,076 Speaker 3: The craziest story about Kellen is when he was in 371 00:22:48,156 --> 00:22:51,156 Speaker 3: Paris in nineteen forty five. The war has just ended, 372 00:22:51,276 --> 00:22:53,276 Speaker 3: and he's sitting in the Cafe Select near the chan 373 00:22:53,396 --> 00:22:57,476 Speaker 3: Zilise when a young woman approaches him. She says, are 374 00:22:57,476 --> 00:23:00,836 Speaker 3: you an American gi He says yes. She says you 375 00:23:00,876 --> 00:23:03,756 Speaker 3: going back to the States. He says yes. She says, 376 00:23:04,356 --> 00:23:06,996 Speaker 3: you have to do me a favor. My father's an artist. 377 00:23:07,196 --> 00:23:10,036 Speaker 3: I have to get his work safely to America, because, 378 00:23:10,076 --> 00:23:13,076 Speaker 3: of course Europe was in chaos. And Kellen says, by 379 00:23:13,076 --> 00:23:16,316 Speaker 3: all means. But then she goes away and comes back 380 00:23:16,356 --> 00:23:19,636 Speaker 3: with this massive stack of canvasses and he says, there's 381 00:23:19,636 --> 00:23:21,556 Speaker 3: no way I can take that, and she says, you 382 00:23:21,756 --> 00:23:25,836 Speaker 3: have to. Whereupon Callen embarks on this epic month long 383 00:23:25,916 --> 00:23:29,436 Speaker 3: struggle to get these paintings safely across the ocean, which 384 00:23:29,476 --> 00:23:31,916 Speaker 3: includes being trapped in the back of an open truck 385 00:23:31,996 --> 00:23:34,476 Speaker 3: during a rain storm and throwing his coat over the 386 00:23:34,476 --> 00:23:37,116 Speaker 3: pile of paintings to keep them from being ruined, and 387 00:23:37,196 --> 00:23:40,796 Speaker 3: staying up all night, night after night because he's terrified 388 00:23:40,876 --> 00:23:45,716 Speaker 3: someone will steal them. Who's the painter, Mark Chagal, I 389 00:23:45,756 --> 00:23:49,956 Speaker 3: should say Mark Chagal, of course, because only Conrad Kellen 390 00:23:50,156 --> 00:23:52,876 Speaker 3: would end up transporting the collected works of one of 391 00:23:52,916 --> 00:23:56,436 Speaker 3: the most famous artists of the twentieth century to America 392 00:23:56,876 --> 00:24:00,516 Speaker 3: in a rainstorm on the back of a truck. The 393 00:24:00,556 --> 00:24:03,076 Speaker 3: deal Chagall's daughter made with him was that he could 394 00:24:03,076 --> 00:24:06,156 Speaker 3: take one picture and keep it for himself. So he 395 00:24:06,236 --> 00:24:09,636 Speaker 3: takes one, a famous one. Then he tells it in 396 00:24:09,676 --> 00:24:12,116 Speaker 3: the nineteen fifties for what seemed like a lot of 397 00:24:12,156 --> 00:24:15,796 Speaker 3: money at the time, But of course it's a Chagall, 398 00:24:16,236 --> 00:24:19,276 Speaker 3: a famous Chagall. And every now and again over the 399 00:24:19,356 --> 00:24:22,276 Speaker 3: years he'd spot his old painting in an auction catalog 400 00:24:22,596 --> 00:24:26,476 Speaker 3: worth more and more and more, and it'd bury his 401 00:24:26,596 --> 00:24:37,156 Speaker 3: head in his hands and say oh. By late nineteen 402 00:24:37,196 --> 00:24:41,036 Speaker 3: sixty six, when Conrad Kellen gets to Rand, the place 403 00:24:41,116 --> 00:24:44,196 Speaker 3: is in turmoil. The Vietnam War has split its ranks 404 00:24:44,236 --> 00:24:46,716 Speaker 3: down the middle. This is the think tank that the 405 00:24:46,756 --> 00:24:49,356 Speaker 3: Pentagon has been relying on to make sense of the war. 406 00:24:49,716 --> 00:24:52,196 Speaker 3: But there's a group inside RAND that believes the war 407 00:24:52,276 --> 00:24:55,316 Speaker 3: is a terrible mistake. I don't know if you remember 408 00:24:55,316 --> 00:24:58,156 Speaker 3: the story of the Pentagon Papers. This was the secret 409 00:24:58,196 --> 00:25:01,396 Speaker 3: forty seven volume study of US political and military involvement 410 00:25:01,396 --> 00:25:04,556 Speaker 3: in the Vietnam War. It was commissioned by the Pentagon. 411 00:25:05,036 --> 00:25:07,156 Speaker 3: The Pentagon Papers showed that the White House had been 412 00:25:07,156 --> 00:25:10,716 Speaker 3: misleading Congress and the American people for years about how 413 00:25:10,756 --> 00:25:13,716 Speaker 3: well the war was going. A copy of the Pentagon 414 00:25:13,756 --> 00:25:16,316 Speaker 3: Papers was famously leaked to the New York Times in 415 00:25:16,396 --> 00:25:20,996 Speaker 3: nineteen seventy one by Daniel Ellsberg. Ellsberg's leak was really 416 00:25:20,996 --> 00:25:23,196 Speaker 3: the beginning of the end of public support for the war. 417 00:25:23,956 --> 00:25:27,356 Speaker 3: And who was Elsburg? An employee of Rand? And where 418 00:25:27,356 --> 00:25:29,836 Speaker 3: did he get his copy of the Pentagon Papers? He 419 00:25:29,916 --> 00:25:32,276 Speaker 3: took it from the safe at Rand and guests who 420 00:25:32,316 --> 00:25:35,156 Speaker 3: was one of Ellsburg's best friends and confidants at Rand, 421 00:25:36,116 --> 00:25:41,916 Speaker 3: Conrad Kellen, of course, as always in the thick of things. 422 00:25:43,316 --> 00:25:45,756 Speaker 3: But the moment we're talking about is well before the 423 00:25:45,756 --> 00:25:49,596 Speaker 3: Pentagon Paper's controversy. It's at the beginning of the divisions 424 00:25:49,596 --> 00:25:54,276 Speaker 3: within Rand nineteen sixty five sixty six. Rand is a 425 00:25:54,316 --> 00:25:58,276 Speaker 3: place that prides itself on objectivity and rigor. Everything is 426 00:25:58,356 --> 00:26:01,196 Speaker 3: checked and double checked and fact checked and reviewed in 427 00:26:01,236 --> 00:26:04,516 Speaker 3: house before it's released. But the Rand brass is beginning 428 00:26:04,516 --> 00:26:07,876 Speaker 3: to worry that when Leon Garray gets whisked by helicopter 429 00:26:07,956 --> 00:26:11,396 Speaker 3: to aircraft carriers or huddles with generals at his cocktail 430 00:26:11,436 --> 00:26:14,516 Speaker 3: parties at the Villa and Rupestur he's bypassing all that. 431 00:26:15,116 --> 00:26:17,996 Speaker 3: They worry that he's gone rogue, so they bring in 432 00:26:18,076 --> 00:26:22,436 Speaker 3: Conrad Kellen to be a second set of eyes. Kellen 433 00:26:22,516 --> 00:26:25,876 Speaker 3: comes in and reads a thousand of the Via Kong interviews. 434 00:26:26,196 --> 00:26:29,116 Speaker 3: Remember many of these interviews ran to fifteen or twenty 435 00:26:29,196 --> 00:26:33,116 Speaker 3: single space type pages. It's a huge amount of work. 436 00:26:33,876 --> 00:26:37,156 Speaker 3: And Kellen decides Gray has it all wrong. The Via 437 00:26:37,276 --> 00:26:41,796 Speaker 3: Kong are not crumbling. On the contrary, here's Kellen again 438 00:26:41,996 --> 00:26:43,596 Speaker 3: from his interview with my Elliott. 439 00:26:44,436 --> 00:26:49,556 Speaker 5: I could see from the interviews that we were not 440 00:26:49,596 --> 00:26:53,836 Speaker 5: going to win this role. That was Michael Koos. I 441 00:26:53,876 --> 00:26:55,836 Speaker 5: was one of the very few people that ran who 442 00:26:55,876 --> 00:26:59,196 Speaker 5: had that idea, and most of from Bergang Ho they 443 00:26:59,196 --> 00:27:02,036 Speaker 5: were going and they couldn't understand. To this day, they 444 00:27:02,036 --> 00:27:08,396 Speaker 5: don't understand how a nation was two million million soldiers 445 00:27:09,156 --> 00:27:12,756 Speaker 5: out of ships airplanes cannot win over Vietnam. 446 00:27:13,636 --> 00:27:18,516 Speaker 3: So here we have two men, two sophisticated European intellectuals 447 00:27:18,716 --> 00:27:21,796 Speaker 3: with access to the richest trove of intelligence in the 448 00:27:21,956 --> 00:27:26,756 Speaker 3: entire war. Grey goes first and says we're winning. Kellen 449 00:27:26,836 --> 00:27:30,556 Speaker 3: comes along, looks at exactly the same evidence and says 450 00:27:30,756 --> 00:27:34,596 Speaker 3: we're never going to win. Then there's my Elliot. If 451 00:27:34,636 --> 00:27:37,356 Speaker 3: Gray is at the villa on Rue Pasteur and Kellen 452 00:27:37,436 --> 00:27:40,956 Speaker 3: is back in Santa Monica, Elliott is actually in the field, 453 00:27:41,396 --> 00:27:44,916 Speaker 3: in the jungles and villages, talking to actual defectors and 454 00:27:45,036 --> 00:27:48,236 Speaker 3: via cong guerrillas. And what does she think will happen? 455 00:27:49,076 --> 00:27:51,596 Speaker 3: She doesn't know. She's confused. 456 00:27:52,196 --> 00:27:55,636 Speaker 2: I walked into this sale and I didn't know what 457 00:27:55,716 --> 00:28:00,796 Speaker 2: to expect. And then in walked this man, middle aged, 458 00:28:01,716 --> 00:28:07,556 Speaker 2: very briskly and he looked, you know, like a man, 459 00:28:10,276 --> 00:28:13,436 Speaker 2: and he stopped dead in his tracks. 460 00:28:13,716 --> 00:28:16,596 Speaker 3: Elliott is talking about an early interview she did that 461 00:28:16,636 --> 00:28:19,676 Speaker 3: had a huge impact on her that she never forgot. 462 00:28:20,036 --> 00:28:22,196 Speaker 2: You have to remember what I looked like at the time. 463 00:28:22,276 --> 00:28:26,276 Speaker 2: I was young. I was dressed in western clothes and 464 00:28:26,956 --> 00:28:30,756 Speaker 2: I didn't look like the military interrogators he had seen. 465 00:28:31,196 --> 00:28:33,316 Speaker 2: So he was surprised to see me, and he was 466 00:28:33,436 --> 00:28:36,436 Speaker 2: kind of guarded, suspicious. He didn't know what to expect, 467 00:28:37,436 --> 00:28:41,516 Speaker 2: and I was afraid. I didn't know what was going 468 00:28:41,596 --> 00:28:45,396 Speaker 2: to happen because I had grown up believing that the 469 00:28:45,436 --> 00:28:46,836 Speaker 2: Communists were blood thirsty. 470 00:28:47,476 --> 00:28:52,116 Speaker 3: They started to talk, and gradually he relaxed and she relaxed. 471 00:28:52,516 --> 00:28:56,876 Speaker 2: You know, I had never met a Communist before face 472 00:28:56,956 --> 00:29:00,236 Speaker 2: to face. So I just my curiosity just took over, 473 00:29:00,796 --> 00:29:03,036 Speaker 2: and I just asked him a lot of questions about 474 00:29:03,116 --> 00:29:07,196 Speaker 2: him and his family and his background and his beliefs. 475 00:29:07,276 --> 00:29:09,956 Speaker 2: And he had devoted his whole life to fighting the 476 00:29:09,996 --> 00:29:13,876 Speaker 2: French and now he was fighting the Americans, and he 477 00:29:13,956 --> 00:29:15,636 Speaker 2: seemed to have a lot of integrity. 478 00:29:16,076 --> 00:29:18,276 Speaker 3: And what effect did listening to him have on you? 479 00:29:19,036 --> 00:29:25,516 Speaker 2: Well, it really confused me because I had believed that 480 00:29:25,596 --> 00:29:29,756 Speaker 2: the Communists were sort of like tugs. We call them 481 00:29:29,996 --> 00:29:32,876 Speaker 2: cho mutu, meaning tugs, and. 482 00:29:33,036 --> 00:29:34,516 Speaker 3: It's a literal translation of. 483 00:29:34,476 --> 00:29:39,556 Speaker 2: That cho mingu the head of a buffalo and the 484 00:29:39,596 --> 00:29:43,516 Speaker 2: body of a horse. So somebody who's not quite human 485 00:29:45,116 --> 00:29:45,596 Speaker 2: a thug. 486 00:29:49,836 --> 00:29:53,236 Speaker 3: What the captured Via Kong officer said was straightforward, The 487 00:29:53,316 --> 00:29:59,036 Speaker 3: intelligence was straightforward. But my Elliot's reaction was anything but straightforward. 488 00:29:59,156 --> 00:30:02,276 Speaker 2: And so I left with more questions and answers, and 489 00:30:02,716 --> 00:30:05,716 Speaker 2: I began to see that the picture was not black 490 00:30:05,756 --> 00:30:08,116 Speaker 2: and white like I had believed at the beginning. 491 00:30:10,676 --> 00:30:13,876 Speaker 3: But then Elliott says something crucial. She says, it didn't 492 00:30:13,956 --> 00:30:17,636 Speaker 3: change her mind. She saw the evidence with her own eyes. 493 00:30:17,956 --> 00:30:20,996 Speaker 3: She did the interview with the general, but it wasn't enough, 494 00:30:22,516 --> 00:30:26,116 Speaker 3: remember her circumstances. She comes from a family of privilege, 495 00:30:26,556 --> 00:30:28,596 Speaker 3: and the rise of the Communists in the north takes 496 00:30:28,596 --> 00:30:31,276 Speaker 3: all that away. They end up living in a little 497 00:30:31,276 --> 00:30:35,396 Speaker 3: hot and Saigon. The Vietcong is not some abstract force. 498 00:30:35,796 --> 00:30:37,956 Speaker 3: They were a personal threat to her family. 499 00:30:38,276 --> 00:30:42,276 Speaker 2: I think for people whose the blacks were against the 500 00:30:42,316 --> 00:30:49,196 Speaker 2: wall and who thought that the survival depended on the 501 00:30:49,276 --> 00:30:53,756 Speaker 2: Communists not winning, then seeing the evidence doesn't mean that 502 00:30:54,276 --> 00:30:55,636 Speaker 2: you change your mind. 503 00:30:56,716 --> 00:30:59,916 Speaker 3: Seeing the evidence doesn't mean that you change your mind. 504 00:31:00,796 --> 00:31:05,516 Speaker 2: Seeing the evidence just increases your fear. Because you fear 505 00:31:05,636 --> 00:31:09,436 Speaker 2: that you know that the Communists would win and it 506 00:31:09,476 --> 00:31:12,476 Speaker 2: would be the end of you and your family, and 507 00:31:13,636 --> 00:31:16,676 Speaker 2: you don't want to face it. You know, you don't 508 00:31:16,676 --> 00:31:17,756 Speaker 2: want to think about it. 509 00:31:27,556 --> 00:31:30,116 Speaker 3: Leon Garay might well have read the transcript of that 510 00:31:30,276 --> 00:31:33,116 Speaker 3: same interview that my Elliott did with the Via Kong officer, 511 00:31:33,756 --> 00:31:36,756 Speaker 3: and his interpretation would be that guy's going to give up. 512 00:31:37,316 --> 00:31:39,836 Speaker 3: If we just bomb people like him some more, we'll 513 00:31:39,836 --> 00:31:45,116 Speaker 3: destroy their will in retrospect, completely wrong. But think about 514 00:31:45,196 --> 00:31:46,636 Speaker 3: this from Gray's perspective. 515 00:31:47,316 --> 00:31:51,996 Speaker 4: Well, look, if you want to understand that I am 516 00:31:52,036 --> 00:31:56,916 Speaker 4: a professional refugee, I win a refugee from Russia to Germany, 517 00:31:56,956 --> 00:31:59,796 Speaker 4: from Germany to France, and from France to the United States. 518 00:32:00,436 --> 00:32:04,196 Speaker 4: So three times. So as far as I was concerned, 519 00:32:04,236 --> 00:32:07,716 Speaker 4: this was going to be my country, and what the 520 00:32:07,796 --> 00:32:10,676 Speaker 4: way it was to defend interest of the United States, 521 00:32:10,716 --> 00:32:14,236 Speaker 4: it was sufficient reason to pursue this thing. 522 00:32:15,116 --> 00:32:18,916 Speaker 3: By this thing, he means fighting communism, the enemy that 523 00:32:18,996 --> 00:32:21,796 Speaker 3: forced Gray out of his home in Russia, and in 524 00:32:21,836 --> 00:32:25,876 Speaker 3: the nineteen sixties, this thing, Communism is still out there. 525 00:32:26,476 --> 00:32:30,236 Speaker 3: It spread to Vietnam. Think how much Gray had to 526 00:32:30,276 --> 00:32:33,836 Speaker 3: believe that America was winning the war. Leon Garray felt 527 00:32:33,876 --> 00:32:35,676 Speaker 3: there was nowhere left to retreat to. 528 00:32:37,756 --> 00:32:42,076 Speaker 4: You don't pick and choose your wars. Your countries are 529 00:32:42,156 --> 00:32:45,956 Speaker 4: wars at war period. You don't pick and choose whether 530 00:32:45,916 --> 00:32:54,276 Speaker 4: you approval of it or not. That's nonsense, that's chaos. 531 00:32:55,876 --> 00:32:58,636 Speaker 3: There's a moment in my Elliott's interview with Conrad Kellen 532 00:32:58,996 --> 00:33:01,876 Speaker 3: where he talks about Gray about what it means to 533 00:33:01,916 --> 00:33:02,756 Speaker 3: be a refugee. 534 00:33:03,916 --> 00:33:09,356 Speaker 5: I think, like many, it eventually became great opportunists. What 535 00:33:09,356 --> 00:33:13,476 Speaker 5: else could they do. I mean, if you were an opportunitists, 536 00:33:13,476 --> 00:33:17,156 Speaker 5: at least you had the American establishment on your side. 537 00:33:17,236 --> 00:33:22,036 Speaker 3: You know, the refugee is an opportunist because he is 538 00:33:22,156 --> 00:33:25,796 Speaker 3: at the mercy of whatever country will take him. And 539 00:33:25,836 --> 00:33:28,316 Speaker 3: I can't help but think that Kellen is also talking 540 00:33:28,316 --> 00:33:32,596 Speaker 3: about himself here. He's acknowledging the biases that he brought 541 00:33:32,636 --> 00:33:43,676 Speaker 3: to the interviews because he's a refugee too. He escaped 542 00:33:43,716 --> 00:33:47,196 Speaker 3: from the Nazis. He witnessed the destruction of everything he 543 00:33:47,236 --> 00:33:51,436 Speaker 3: once knew, his home, his community, his family, his privilege. 544 00:33:51,916 --> 00:33:55,196 Speaker 3: How can that not scar you? At one point, Kellen 545 00:33:55,236 --> 00:33:58,636 Speaker 3: explains to Elliott why he never actually traveled to Vietnam, 546 00:33:58,996 --> 00:34:02,036 Speaker 3: even though he was working on a project about Vietnam. 547 00:34:02,356 --> 00:34:04,916 Speaker 5: I was not going to Vietnam because one war was 548 00:34:05,036 --> 00:34:11,956 Speaker 5: enough for me. I don't what I have to was. 549 00:34:09,276 --> 00:34:13,276 Speaker 3: Was enough for me? I imagine Kellen read that same interview 550 00:34:13,316 --> 00:34:17,396 Speaker 3: Elliott did, the one with the Vietcong officer. Kellen sees 551 00:34:17,476 --> 00:34:20,636 Speaker 3: the man's determination, and when he thinks about that resolve 552 00:34:20,956 --> 00:34:24,556 Speaker 3: through the prism of his own experience, he realizes, I 553 00:34:24,596 --> 00:34:28,956 Speaker 3: can't match that, not anymore. One war was enough for me. 554 00:34:32,156 --> 00:34:34,996 Speaker 3: Over and again in his interview with my Elliott, Kellen 555 00:34:35,116 --> 00:34:39,956 Speaker 3: comes back to this war wasn't some conceptual abstraction for him. 556 00:34:40,276 --> 00:34:43,476 Speaker 3: It wasn't an intellectual question like it was for so many. 557 00:34:43,516 --> 00:34:46,596 Speaker 3: At Rand it was real, he lived through it. 558 00:34:47,236 --> 00:34:51,796 Speaker 5: There were an awful lot of civilians around in this 559 00:34:51,956 --> 00:34:59,796 Speaker 5: whole thing, in this whole Vietnam thing, who talked about casualties, characters. 560 00:34:59,876 --> 00:35:03,316 Speaker 5: They didn't give a damn about anything. If somebody came 561 00:35:03,356 --> 00:35:05,716 Speaker 5: back and said, you know, we took and took such 562 00:35:05,756 --> 00:35:10,996 Speaker 5: and such a place which I don't know sixty well, 563 00:35:11,196 --> 00:35:13,796 Speaker 5: a casualty is not a dead person. A casualty is 564 00:35:14,316 --> 00:35:16,276 Speaker 5: something theoretical for these people. 565 00:35:16,836 --> 00:35:21,636 Speaker 3: One interview with the Vietcong officer, one fantastic bit of intelligence, 566 00:35:21,956 --> 00:35:25,556 Speaker 3: an insight into the enemy's mind, and yet everyone was 567 00:35:25,556 --> 00:35:29,236 Speaker 3: in disagreement on what it meant because everyone was looking 568 00:35:29,236 --> 00:35:32,516 Speaker 3: at it through a different set of eyes. That's why 569 00:35:32,516 --> 00:35:36,956 Speaker 3: intelligence failures happened. It's not because someone screws up or 570 00:35:36,996 --> 00:35:40,516 Speaker 3: is stupid or lazy. It's because the people who make 571 00:35:40,596 --> 00:35:44,316 Speaker 3: sense of intelligence are human beings with their own histories 572 00:35:44,316 --> 00:35:48,516 Speaker 3: and biases. So what happens to the three people in 573 00:35:48,556 --> 00:35:52,596 Speaker 3: our story? Gray gets recalled from Vietnam in April of 574 00:35:52,636 --> 00:35:53,756 Speaker 3: nineteen sixty seven. 575 00:35:54,436 --> 00:35:57,356 Speaker 4: Clearly Rand asked me to stop going there. 576 00:35:57,636 --> 00:36:00,956 Speaker 3: To stop going to Vietnam, to return to Santa Monica. 577 00:36:01,436 --> 00:36:03,476 Speaker 4: I went back, and then I was told that my 578 00:36:03,596 --> 00:36:07,556 Speaker 4: presence was an embarrassment. I don't know why you suggest. 579 00:36:07,596 --> 00:36:10,116 Speaker 4: You was very clear that there should love for something else. 580 00:36:11,436 --> 00:36:12,316 Speaker 6: How'd you feel about that? 581 00:36:12,556 --> 00:36:13,436 Speaker 2: Were you disappointed? 582 00:36:13,756 --> 00:36:14,276 Speaker 4: Of course? 583 00:36:15,276 --> 00:36:18,916 Speaker 3: I like grand he was hung out to dry. His son, 584 00:36:18,996 --> 00:36:20,236 Speaker 3: Daniel is a lot more blunt. 585 00:36:20,676 --> 00:36:23,996 Speaker 6: My sense of it was they wanted, you know, to 586 00:36:24,036 --> 00:36:28,636 Speaker 6: cut loose from anything having to do with Vietnam, and 587 00:36:29,916 --> 00:36:33,396 Speaker 6: the way to cut loose from this project and from 588 00:36:33,516 --> 00:36:36,596 Speaker 6: him was to try and discredit the analysis and sort 589 00:36:36,596 --> 00:36:39,436 Speaker 6: of then you know, Okay, you're now no longer a 590 00:36:39,556 --> 00:36:41,956 Speaker 6: legitimate analyst, Well you really do need to go, yeah, 591 00:36:42,156 --> 00:36:42,636 Speaker 6: kind of thing. 592 00:36:42,956 --> 00:36:45,556 Speaker 3: And how can you describe your father in those years? 593 00:36:46,436 --> 00:36:50,836 Speaker 6: So I think he was feeling quite beaten down. Frankly, 594 00:36:50,876 --> 00:36:53,076 Speaker 6: I suspect there was a degree of just physical exhaustion. 595 00:36:53,756 --> 00:36:56,516 Speaker 6: It may have been not that different than you know, 596 00:36:56,676 --> 00:36:59,556 Speaker 6: when he and his family kept getting driven out of 597 00:37:00,196 --> 00:37:03,036 Speaker 6: you know, cities in Europe and had to restart the 598 00:37:03,076 --> 00:37:05,156 Speaker 6: whole process and restart the fight. I think there was 599 00:37:05,196 --> 00:37:06,076 Speaker 6: a certain degree of that. 600 00:37:06,676 --> 00:37:10,236 Speaker 3: Gray eventually moves to Florida take opposed to the University 601 00:37:10,236 --> 00:37:14,516 Speaker 3: of Miami, fights the Cold War from Coral Gables. As 602 00:37:14,516 --> 00:37:18,556 Speaker 3: for my Elliott, she eventually moves to America, lives in Ithaca, 603 00:37:19,076 --> 00:37:21,796 Speaker 3: and it's only then, from the safety of upstate New York, 604 00:37:22,036 --> 00:37:24,836 Speaker 3: that she finally accepts what the Vie Kong officer was 605 00:37:24,876 --> 00:37:25,396 Speaker 3: telling her. 606 00:37:25,956 --> 00:37:29,316 Speaker 2: I wish it would had been easier for me to 607 00:37:29,396 --> 00:37:33,436 Speaker 2: come to that conclusion earlier, because it was just the 608 00:37:33,636 --> 00:37:36,556 Speaker 2: use of agonizing and being ambiguous. 609 00:37:37,116 --> 00:37:40,476 Speaker 3: She finally admits it to herself. The North Vietnamese were 610 00:37:40,476 --> 00:37:43,916 Speaker 3: determined the war was wrong and unwinnable. 611 00:37:44,796 --> 00:37:49,356 Speaker 2: I think that it's easier to be objective when you 612 00:37:49,396 --> 00:37:54,196 Speaker 2: will not you don't have a personal stake in a situation, 613 00:37:55,836 --> 00:37:58,516 Speaker 2: and you can see the evidence and say, oh, yeah, 614 00:37:58,556 --> 00:38:02,556 Speaker 2: the war's not working less ended. But when you have 615 00:38:02,796 --> 00:38:09,036 Speaker 2: a very deep, strong personal stake, it's a lot harder, 616 00:38:09,876 --> 00:38:13,796 Speaker 2: because you're talking about survival of your family realities. 617 00:38:15,236 --> 00:38:19,516 Speaker 3: Mi Elliott finally faced the difficult truth. As for Kellen, 618 00:38:20,156 --> 00:38:22,676 Speaker 3: Kellen sounds the alarm almost in the beginning of his 619 00:38:22,756 --> 00:38:25,996 Speaker 3: time at RAND. He says, the intelligence tells us the 620 00:38:26,036 --> 00:38:29,116 Speaker 3: war cannot be won. But of course, if you know 621 00:38:29,236 --> 00:38:31,956 Speaker 3: even the slightest bit about the Vietnam War, you know 622 00:38:32,036 --> 00:38:34,116 Speaker 3: that no one listened to him, at least until it 623 00:38:34,156 --> 00:38:37,436 Speaker 3: was too late. He suffered, like all of them did. 624 00:38:38,036 --> 00:38:40,556 Speaker 5: I can only say that the people that I knew 625 00:38:40,996 --> 00:38:45,956 Speaker 5: talked a lot about scientific scientific Listen that we're the 626 00:38:45,996 --> 00:38:49,556 Speaker 5: most unscientific people you can imagine. They just picked somebody, 627 00:38:50,036 --> 00:38:52,436 Speaker 5: and then if they agreed with him, or he agreed 628 00:38:52,476 --> 00:38:54,516 Speaker 5: with them, then he was an expert, and if he 629 00:38:54,516 --> 00:38:56,476 Speaker 5: didn't agree with him, he was not an expert. And 630 00:38:56,476 --> 00:38:57,236 Speaker 5: then they wrote it. 631 00:38:57,196 --> 00:39:02,556 Speaker 3: Out the most unscientific people you can imagine. I'm not 632 00:39:02,596 --> 00:39:04,116 Speaker 3: sure it's any different today, is it. 633 00:39:04,876 --> 00:39:11,316 Speaker 5: And everybody reports for everybody else, and it was almost 634 00:39:11,316 --> 00:39:14,396 Speaker 5: like a comedy. You know, he was so stupid. I 635 00:39:14,476 --> 00:39:15,716 Speaker 5: got very angry about that. 636 00:39:24,716 --> 00:39:27,516 Speaker 3: Kellen died in two thousand and seven, and not long 637 00:39:27,516 --> 00:39:29,476 Speaker 3: ago I went to see his wife in that same 638 00:39:29,556 --> 00:39:33,316 Speaker 3: house up in the hills. His daughters were there as well. 639 00:39:33,876 --> 00:39:36,556 Speaker 3: They talked about how the Second War War never left him. 640 00:39:37,116 --> 00:39:39,956 Speaker 3: He had terrible memories, and at the very end of 641 00:39:39,996 --> 00:39:42,916 Speaker 3: his life, all those memories came back with a vengeance. 642 00:39:43,836 --> 00:39:47,676 Speaker 3: Kellen would lie in his bed in sunny, beautiful Santa Monica, 643 00:39:48,116 --> 00:39:50,116 Speaker 3: and he would dream that the Nazis were coming up 644 00:39:50,116 --> 00:39:50,476 Speaker 3: the hill. 645 00:39:50,876 --> 00:40:18,196 Speaker 1: To take him away. 646 00:40:19,916 --> 00:40:23,436 Speaker 3: You've been listening to Revisionist History. If you like what 647 00:40:23,476 --> 00:40:26,516 Speaker 3: you've heard, do us a favor and rate us on iTunes. 648 00:40:26,756 --> 00:40:27,276 Speaker 1: It helps. 649 00:40:28,196 --> 00:40:30,956 Speaker 3: You can get more information about this and other episodes 650 00:40:31,276 --> 00:40:35,876 Speaker 3: at revisionististory dot com or on your favorite podcast app. 651 00:40:36,756 --> 00:40:40,516 Speaker 3: Our show is produced by mea LaBelle, Roxanne Scott and 652 00:40:40,596 --> 00:40:45,356 Speaker 3: Jacob Smith. Our editor is Julia Barton. Music is composed 653 00:40:45,396 --> 00:40:49,396 Speaker 3: by Luis Kira and Taka Yasuzawa. Flon Williams is our 654 00:40:49,396 --> 00:40:55,156 Speaker 3: engineer and our fact checker is Michelle Sarraka. Penalty management 655 00:40:55,196 --> 00:41:01,196 Speaker 3: team Laura Mayer, Andy Bauers and Jacob Weisberg. I'm Malcolm 656 00:41:01,236 --> 00:41:01,716 Speaker 3: gladwell 657 00:41:10,996 --> 00:41:11,036 Speaker 2: S.