WEBVTT - It Could Happen Here Weekly 242 0:00:01.720 --> 0:00:05.560 A media. Hey everybody, Robert Evans here, and I wanted 0:00:05.559 --> 0:00:08.600 to let you know this is a compilation episode. So 0:00:08.640 --> 0:00:12.160 every episode of the week that just happened is here 0:00:12.200 --> 0:00:16.079 in one convenient and with somewhat less ads package for 0:00:16.160 --> 0:00:18.280 you to listen to in a long stretch if you want. 0:00:18.760 --> 0:00:20.840 If you've been listening to the episodes every day this week, 0:00:20.880 --> 0:00:22.599 there's going to be nothing new here for you, but 0:00:22.960 --> 0:00:28.760 you can make your own decisions. What's pew in my pews? 0:00:29.320 --> 0:00:32.239 This is Robert Evans and it could happen here a 0:00:32.280 --> 0:00:35.640 podcast about it happening here as it seems to be 0:00:35.760 --> 0:00:39.400 more every week and when things get worse, one thing 0:00:39.440 --> 0:00:41.800 that a lot of folks start talking about is should 0:00:41.800 --> 0:00:45.080 I buy a gun? And obviously this is a fraught 0:00:45.159 --> 0:00:48.400 question and the only responsible answers to it are very complicated. 0:00:48.440 --> 0:00:51.600 And so to talk over some very complicated answers, we've 0:00:51.640 --> 0:00:55.720 got James Stout and we have in the audience with 0:00:55.800 --> 0:00:59.160 us the great Carl Casarta, Carl of en Range TV. 0:00:59.480 --> 0:01:02.760 Thank you for coming on to be our resident firearms 0:01:03.040 --> 0:01:05.840 expert in this podcast where we try not to be 0:01:06.040 --> 0:01:07.240 deeply irresponsible. 0:01:07.400 --> 0:01:09.240 Yeah, thank you for having me on. It's always a 0:01:09.280 --> 0:01:12.160 pleasure to come back to the show, and people always 0:01:12.200 --> 0:01:13.800 ask for more collabs, and here we are, but on 0:01:13.840 --> 0:01:16.440 a very important topic, and yes they course. What I 0:01:16.440 --> 0:01:17.840 have is now is when do you change the name 0:01:17.880 --> 0:01:18.640 of the podcast too? 0:01:18.680 --> 0:01:22.919 Oh no, it's happening here. We're talking with the marketing people. 0:01:23.520 --> 0:01:28.120 It done happened here. Oh shit, it's happening again. It's 0:01:28.200 --> 0:01:32.880 been happening here. Yeah, here, it is here now right 0:01:32.920 --> 0:01:33.559 in this moment. 0:01:35.280 --> 0:01:38.960 Be here now it Yeah, we got we got to 0:01:38.959 --> 0:01:40.200 work out each one seo's best. 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:41.800 But we're on it. Called don't worry. 0:01:41.640 --> 0:01:44.360 Great, we're working on it, so as I think both 0:01:44.360 --> 0:01:46.880 of you know, But maybe listeners don't. Gun sales typically 0:01:46.959 --> 0:01:51.400 saw before elections as to ammunition purchases. People are afraid 0:01:51.400 --> 0:01:54.640 of gun bands has been traditionally one reason why, and 0:01:55.160 --> 0:01:58.040 the firearms industry is not afraid of hyping those up 0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:01.200 to increase sales in election years. And no, many prices 0:02:01.240 --> 0:02:04.200 increase inline with demand. Like if you get back to 0:02:04.240 --> 0:02:06.680 November twenty twenty and look at the prices of ammunition 0:02:06.760 --> 0:02:09.919 and guns compared to now, you'll see how much incredibly 0:02:09.960 --> 0:02:11.760 high they That was for a number of reasons. But 0:02:12.400 --> 0:02:15.200 considering inflation, gun prices are pretty low right now. 0:02:15.680 --> 0:02:18.720 You know that is kind of a recurrent thing for 0:02:18.760 --> 0:02:22.680 the most part, is that while everything else gets more expensive, 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:25.519 television and firearms remain affordable. 0:02:25.600 --> 0:02:28.840 Yeah, gun gone to the point where they are more 0:02:28.840 --> 0:02:31.919 affordable than they've ever been. Uh huh, Yeah, they really are. 0:02:32.680 --> 0:02:34.640 Air fifteens or I used to talk about this on 0:02:35.160 --> 0:02:37.799 air fifteens are essentially cord wood and you can get 0:02:37.840 --> 0:02:40.200 a fully fled good to go air fifteen now for 0:02:40.280 --> 0:02:42.640 like four to five hundred bucks. The epistols for two 0:02:42.760 --> 0:02:45.000 hundred and fifty bucks. Oh yeah. The prices on guns 0:02:45.000 --> 0:02:48.280 are like through the floor. And yeah, it's interesting to 0:02:48.320 --> 0:02:51.000 note that, like, if you are a gun manufacturer, a 0:02:51.000 --> 0:02:54.560 firearms dealer, even if you don't hype elections, it would 0:02:54.600 --> 0:02:57.280 be unintelligent of you to not prep for elections because 0:02:57.280 --> 0:03:00.600 they're so consistently yeah, the Christmas of guns. So this 0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:02.240 is an instance in which we didn't see that. It's 0:03:02.280 --> 0:03:03.200 it's kind of interesting. 0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:05.600 I think there's an element because obviously when we talk 0:03:05.760 --> 0:03:07.720 I think to people who are not into guns and 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:10.480 talk about how cheap guns have gotten, they're like, well, 0:03:10.480 --> 0:03:13.640 that's very bad. And there's definitely downsides to that, But 0:03:13.680 --> 0:03:15.919 an upside of that is it does kind of suggest 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:19.919 we are not seeing the degree of panicked hoarding for 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:22.640 a civil war that we have seen at previous points 0:03:22.639 --> 0:03:26.560 when gun prices were not as as cratered and AMMO 0:03:26.680 --> 0:03:29.600 prices were a lot higher and am ava availability was 0:03:29.639 --> 0:03:31.919 a lot lower. Like in some ways, that's kind of 0:03:31.919 --> 0:03:33.160 an optimistic sign. 0:03:33.200 --> 0:03:35.120 Yeah, or the dark side of that is the traditional 0:03:35.360 --> 0:03:38.600 prepper air quote is so saturated in guns and ammunition, right, 0:03:38.600 --> 0:03:41.040 but they don't need another one, right. 0:03:40.960 --> 0:03:43.000 Well, that's I think that is where a lot of 0:03:43.080 --> 0:03:43.800 people are. 0:03:45.560 --> 0:03:50.000 Also, like capacity really increased in twenty twenty, and I 0:03:50.000 --> 0:03:52.960 think they've been pumping out Like it's interesting to look 0:03:52.960 --> 0:03:55.080 at the cost of nine millimeters E and five five 0:03:55.160 --> 0:03:57.680 six ammunition, which, if you're not familiar, are like the 0:03:57.720 --> 0:04:02.360 most commonly used defensive ammunition compared to more niche stuff 0:04:02.440 --> 0:04:05.120 like that hasn't gone down as much if you're trying 0:04:05.120 --> 0:04:07.760 to get three hundred wisdom or something. 0:04:08.000 --> 0:04:09.840 The funny thing that, yeah, five y six and nine 0:04:09.840 --> 0:04:13.000 milimeters both to defensively add well is just recreationally are 0:04:13.080 --> 0:04:16.240 the most common ammunition YEA by far, and some of 0:04:16.240 --> 0:04:18.160 the weird old stuff I like to shoot, like percussion 0:04:18.160 --> 0:04:20.720 caps for percussion revolvers. You can't find that stuff to 0:04:20.760 --> 0:04:23.160 save your life. That's those through the roof and expensive. 0:04:23.240 --> 0:04:27.839 So yeah, they've literally just bunkered down cook intent there 0:04:28.000 --> 0:04:30.480 and are making five, six, a nine millimeters because that's 0:04:30.520 --> 0:04:32.440 where the demand is and will continue to be. 0:04:32.680 --> 0:04:36.240 Yeah, I can't find you can't see it. I have 0:04:36.320 --> 0:04:38.400 a little reloading set up here. I can't find shot 0:04:38.400 --> 0:04:40.920 gun primers or seven powders anyway. 0:04:41.000 --> 0:04:43.120 Now, and this is going to be a problem because 0:04:43.120 --> 0:04:45.719 if we have another Cowboys and Aliens kind of situation, 0:04:45.839 --> 0:04:47.400 what are we going to use? You know, what is 0:04:47.440 --> 0:04:50.320 Harrison Ford going to use to save us? Anyway? Nobody 0:04:50.320 --> 0:04:52.120 saw that movie. Why am I making that joke? 0:04:52.600 --> 0:04:52.960 Let me know. 0:04:53.040 --> 0:04:54.720 I've got a good stash of percussion cap. 0:04:55.279 --> 0:04:58.600 Yeah, we're all going to be leaning heavily on Carl. 0:05:00.160 --> 0:05:01.400 Call fural humanity. 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:03.479 So I think we've gotten a little bit ahead of 0:05:03.480 --> 0:05:05.520 our skis here. We should we should start by talking 0:05:05.880 --> 0:05:08.120 because again, I think we've all seen a lot of 0:05:08.120 --> 0:05:09.919 people being like, well, I guess I should get a 0:05:09.920 --> 0:05:13.039 gun now. As in the wake of Trump's victory, and 0:05:13.120 --> 0:05:15.960 I think the first caveat we should give everyone is like, 0:05:16.120 --> 0:05:18.880 if you are reacting in a way that is totally 0:05:18.920 --> 0:05:21.880 reasonable to this news, being depressed, right, if you're somebody 0:05:21.920 --> 0:05:25.760 who deals with suicidal ideation, if you have been spiraling lately, 0:05:25.800 --> 0:05:28.760 if you have been thinking about self harm, if you 0:05:28.800 --> 0:05:31.839 are just not in a stable mental place, and especially 0:05:31.880 --> 0:05:34.080 if you have no experience with firearms and are not 0:05:34.160 --> 0:05:37.279 in a stable mental place, don't go rush to pick 0:05:37.320 --> 0:05:40.400 one up now. Look for one thing, I assure you 0:05:40.440 --> 0:05:42.840 they will be available in the future. They are not 0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:45.000 going to get harder to buy. 0:05:45.600 --> 0:05:47.440 No, you know. It mights be of a line from 0:05:47.440 --> 0:05:49.919 the movie We Were Soldiers, which is actually a pretty 0:05:50.080 --> 0:05:52.440 pretty good movie speaking oh yeah, yeah, yeah, it's a 0:05:52.480 --> 0:05:55.039 lot of fun, not a Gibson. It was pretty good. 0:05:55.279 --> 0:05:58.360 And there's a scene where like the old hardened soldier 0:05:58.480 --> 0:06:01.080 from Korea World War two, Rhea it gets the Vietnam 0:06:01.080 --> 0:06:02.760 and he's like, he's just got a pistol, and like 0:06:02.800 --> 0:06:04.560 everyone's around him saying don't you one to In m 0:06:04.640 --> 0:06:06.280 sixteen he goes, don't worry, There'll be plenty of those 0:06:06.320 --> 0:06:09.080 laying around if I need one, So right, kind of 0:06:09.120 --> 0:06:10.239 that's where we're at in this country. 0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:10.680 Don't worry. 0:06:10.720 --> 0:06:12.920 There'll be plenty laying around if you need one. Yeah. 0:06:13.000 --> 0:06:16.000 Yeah, we are not entering a period where that's you know, 0:06:16.200 --> 0:06:18.440 I think there are some specific worries where there may 0:06:18.480 --> 0:06:21.359 be attempts to restrict specific groups from arming themselves. But 0:06:21.440 --> 0:06:24.599 even so, I wouldn't say that elevates it above a threat. 0:06:24.640 --> 0:06:28.279 If you are dealing with suicidal ideation, having a gun 0:06:28.520 --> 0:06:32.599 is not a talisman, as our friend tactical girlfriend often 0:06:32.680 --> 0:06:35.080 brings up, and you shouldn't treat it as one. And 0:06:35.080 --> 0:06:37.240 part of what that means is that, like, you have 0:06:37.279 --> 0:06:40.560 to model like the threat that you're facing, right and 0:06:40.600 --> 0:06:43.279 if you are not in immediate danger, if nobody is 0:06:43.320 --> 0:06:46.520 threatening to kill you specifically, you know, then that may 0:06:46.560 --> 0:06:49.719 not be the safest thing for you, right and particularly, 0:06:49.720 --> 0:06:52.000 I think the other side of it that Carl, you 0:06:52.040 --> 0:06:53.839 are much more qualified to talk about with than me, 0:06:53.920 --> 0:06:55.760 is that if you are going to buy a firearm, 0:06:55.839 --> 0:06:57.480 if you want that to be a thing that can 0:06:57.560 --> 0:07:01.080 actually protect you in a situation where you are in danger, 0:07:01.120 --> 0:07:04.640 where someone is threatening your life, you have to train 0:07:04.720 --> 0:07:05.000 with it. 0:07:05.279 --> 0:07:05.479 Yeah. 0:07:05.640 --> 0:07:08.359 No, absolutely, I think that not to make light of 0:07:08.360 --> 0:07:10.000 that at all with that little joke about that movie. 0:07:10.000 --> 0:07:12.480 But the reality is we as people humans in general, 0:07:12.760 --> 0:07:15.760 all of us are bad at threat modeling. And that's 0:07:15.800 --> 0:07:17.880 not to say that the perceived threat that we're seeing 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:20.560 with the results isn't real. I think it is. But 0:07:21.240 --> 0:07:24.320 that said, at the moment, if you're dealing with some 0:07:24.320 --> 0:07:27.239 of those issues like you mentioned, or the living situation 0:07:27.320 --> 0:07:29.640 you're in, or even the community around you isn't one 0:07:29.680 --> 0:07:33.160 in which a firearm laying around is particularly safe, could 0:07:33.280 --> 0:07:36.160 mean that you're actually inducing more threat and risk to 0:07:36.200 --> 0:07:39.000 yourself than what might come in two years. So that 0:07:39.120 --> 0:07:41.560 is something we have to think about very carefully. Can 0:07:41.640 --> 0:07:44.160 I possess this responsibly? Do I know how to use 0:07:44.160 --> 0:07:46.760 it responsibly? Am I in a place not only in 0:07:46.760 --> 0:07:49.320 my living situation, but my mental state that possessing this 0:07:49.760 --> 0:07:52.480 very quick and easy to use lethal device is safe 0:07:52.480 --> 0:07:55.120 to have around? Those are questions you should ask first 0:07:55.160 --> 0:07:56.800 before worrying about tomorrow. 0:07:57.560 --> 0:08:00.440 Right, Yeah, I mean, maybe we should address like a 0:08:00.480 --> 0:08:02.480 couple of things that Kyle said right off the bat, 0:08:02.520 --> 0:08:03.720 Like you said, having a. 0:08:03.680 --> 0:08:05.760 Fire I'm lying around right. 0:08:06.120 --> 0:08:07.960 One thing that we should address is like, I know 0:08:08.280 --> 0:08:11.440 I recently purchased a new gun safe, but like if 0:08:11.480 --> 0:08:14.280 you have ex budget to buy a gun. Robert also 0:08:14.320 --> 0:08:17.440 mentioned that without training, your liability with the gun. Right, 0:08:17.800 --> 0:08:21.400 maybe we can break down if you have a thousand dollars, 0:08:21.680 --> 0:08:23.640 you don't need to go out and spend a thousand 0:08:23.680 --> 0:08:25.800 dollars on your gun. Right, perhaps it would be better 0:08:26.200 --> 0:08:28.240 to save some of that money and put it towards 0:08:28.280 --> 0:08:30.960 other things. I think it might make sense to just 0:08:31.040 --> 0:08:34.360 break those down for people in case they're not familiar. 0:08:34.800 --> 0:08:36.240 Yeah, I think that that might be a good place 0:08:36.280 --> 0:08:39.120 to start. Is if you decide number one, I'm in 0:08:39.120 --> 0:08:43.040 an emotionally stable place. I either have some specific threats 0:08:43.120 --> 0:08:45.120 or I want to be prepared for a future where 0:08:45.160 --> 0:08:47.720 those threats are more likely. And let's start with a 0:08:47.720 --> 0:08:50.280 budget of one thousand dollars, right, And you know this 0:08:50.360 --> 0:08:52.800 is one There's going to be people who can't afford 0:08:52.800 --> 0:08:55.480 a budget of one thousand dollars, and that's very unfortunate. 0:08:55.520 --> 0:08:58.439 But this is one of those things that like isn't fair, right, 0:08:58.559 --> 0:09:02.480 Like guns cost money, everyone has disposable income. But a 0:09:02.559 --> 0:09:05.360 thousand dollars I think is a reasonable floor for not 0:09:05.400 --> 0:09:07.800 just acquiring a firearm, but like the things you need 0:09:07.840 --> 0:09:10.680 to be able to start building proficiency with it. So 0:09:11.480 --> 0:09:13.439 let's talk about that car, like, what would you do? 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:15.640 What would you advise someone with a grand who is 0:09:15.679 --> 0:09:19.240 looking into getting into shooting and also being set up 0:09:19.280 --> 0:09:21.680 to potentially defend themselves if they need to. 0:09:22.280 --> 0:09:25.920 Right, So, it's such a nuanced question and answer because 0:09:25.920 --> 0:09:28.880 there's so many variabilities there, one of which is you 0:09:28.920 --> 0:09:30.880 have to understand the living situation you're in. Are you 0:09:30.920 --> 0:09:33.040 living in a place that is solely your own? Do 0:09:33.120 --> 0:09:35.520 you live with roommates? Do you do you have children 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:38.560 and your parents? I mean, like these things all come 0:09:38.600 --> 0:09:41.319 into the equation about how well can you secure this 0:09:41.400 --> 0:09:44.680 thing should you acquire it? And so that comes up 0:09:44.720 --> 0:09:46.840 to do you need a full bolt into the wall safe? 0:09:46.920 --> 0:09:50.000 Do you need something that is locked with cable underneath 0:09:50.080 --> 0:09:53.160 the bed that still is reasonably difficult to get into 0:09:53.559 --> 0:09:56.079 but is accessible otherwise? Do you have a situation in 0:09:56.120 --> 0:09:58.280 which you're the only one that could access this and 0:09:58.320 --> 0:10:00.760 therefore you're not worried about that? So the first thing 0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:02.640 you have to think about is that I'm taking possession 0:10:02.640 --> 0:10:06.120 of responsibility of this. It is a lethal weapon. What 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:07.800 am I going to do to make sure that that 0:10:07.840 --> 0:10:10.440 doesn't fall into the wrong hands, Whether the are people 0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:13.160 that live within your own structure or outside of it 0:10:13.200 --> 0:10:15.760 should something go awry, So you have to consider that. 0:10:15.840 --> 0:10:17.880 So right off the bat is what are the situation 0:10:18.080 --> 0:10:20.280 I'm in and what are the things I need to 0:10:20.320 --> 0:10:23.680 consider to make sure this doesn't leak out of my control? 0:10:23.760 --> 0:10:26.080 Because we've seen in so many instances, especially some of 0:10:26.080 --> 0:10:28.160 the horrible spree shootings and such, in which is not 0:10:28.240 --> 0:10:30.520 the person that possessed the gun but someone around them 0:10:30.559 --> 0:10:32.440 that took it from them and used it for them. Absolutely, 0:10:32.440 --> 0:10:35.640 and that's because it wasn't stored well. And so that's 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:37.760 number one. So you're going to think about one, are 0:10:37.800 --> 0:10:40.280 you getting a small a pithol or a long arm? 0:10:40.320 --> 0:10:42.200 And that's a discussion that we had too, but those 0:10:42.240 --> 0:10:44.480 two equate. And then depending on which one of those 0:10:44.480 --> 0:10:47.720 two you're acquiring determines the kind of safe storage requirements 0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:51.400 that also aligned with your current living situation. Of course, 0:10:51.400 --> 0:10:53.559 the best thing is a safe bolted to the floor 0:10:53.559 --> 0:10:55.640 that only you can get into. But that's not viable 0:10:55.679 --> 0:11:00.120 for everyone, yeah right, but it's something right yeah yeah. 0:11:00.000 --> 0:11:01.960 So what comes along with that is you also, this 0:11:02.080 --> 0:11:04.079 is going to be true at every stage of this process, 0:11:04.360 --> 0:11:07.120 you need to know the laws of your state, and 0:11:07.160 --> 0:11:10.080 maybe even your local area. Right Like, in Oregon, we 0:11:10.160 --> 0:11:13.320 have very strict safe storage laws, right Like, you can 0:11:13.360 --> 0:11:15.679 be held accountable to a higher degree in this state 0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:18.720 if you don't secure a weapon and someone gets access 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:21.160 to it. Right now, Obviously, if you have a safe 0:11:21.160 --> 0:11:23.679 and someone drills into your safe, you're not liable, right like, 0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:26.920 you took the actions you could to stop them from 0:11:27.000 --> 0:11:29.600 being able to get to your firearms. There's not an 0:11:29.640 --> 0:11:33.040 expectation that you have a fortress of solitude or whatever, 0:11:33.320 --> 0:11:35.840 but you have to have taken reasonable steps to lock 0:11:35.920 --> 0:11:39.000 them away, right and you know that's going to be different. 0:11:39.000 --> 0:11:41.560 A lot of states have absolutely no requirements whatsoever, but 0:11:41.600 --> 0:11:44.520 you need to be aware of what your local legal 0:11:44.559 --> 0:11:45.160 situation is. 0:11:45.240 --> 0:11:47.400 Yeah, I appreciate you bringing that to the table because myself, 0:11:47.520 --> 0:11:49.680 living in Arizona, we have no such rules, and so 0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:52.120 I can essentially you can just keep them on the floor. 0:11:53.640 --> 0:11:55.640 I could stack them in my front yard, right I'm like, 0:11:55.960 --> 0:11:57.319 I put them out in the yar. We'll see. I 0:11:57.400 --> 0:11:58.160 had extra rs. 0:11:58.200 --> 0:12:00.720 I use them to make a fence cheaper than right now, 0:12:02.080 --> 0:12:03.240 literally cold would now. 0:12:04.080 --> 0:12:06.000 So the thing about that is this is again, these 0:12:06.280 --> 0:12:08.520 things get more and more complicated over time, but we 0:12:08.559 --> 0:12:11.800 don't want to make this conversation impenetrable. But like, the 0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:14.800 kind of safe you acquire is important too, and this 0:12:14.840 --> 0:12:16.600 is that's a deeper topic than we could ever do 0:12:16.640 --> 0:12:18.600 in one video. Yeah, I'm gonna go ahead and just 0:12:18.800 --> 0:12:21.520 dovetail out to a friend of mine, Devian Olaf. He 0:12:21.559 --> 0:12:24.120 has a channel. He does a lot of video work 0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:26.800 about gun safe and which ones are good or bad. 0:12:27.120 --> 0:12:29.480 But let's just say the cheap ninety dollars thing with 0:12:29.520 --> 0:12:32.199 the cylindrical key lock, isn't it. So you've got to 0:12:32.200 --> 0:12:33.800 be a little better than that. So I would ask them, 0:12:33.920 --> 0:12:36.840 let's go with costs you're buying. Let's say in air fifteen, 0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:39.920 you're probably gonna need to spend and I'm guessing here 0:12:39.920 --> 0:12:42.160 around two hundred and fifty dollars for a safe that's 0:12:42.200 --> 0:12:43.600 actually worth a damn Yeah. 0:12:43.760 --> 0:12:47.440 Yeah, it's about what I spent recently for little hangguns safe. 0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:48.360 Yeah. 0:12:48.679 --> 0:12:51.000 So let's let's build on that. Right. 0:12:51.080 --> 0:12:53.480 Let's say you've society, do you want a gun, and 0:12:53.520 --> 0:12:55.160 that it is safe for you to have a gun? 0:12:55.280 --> 0:12:58.000 I think, Yeah, the first thing you want to prioritize 0:12:58.080 --> 0:13:00.360 is making sure that no one who who that it's 0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:03.840 not safe gets that gun, which we've addressed, right. The 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:07.400 second thing that you need to prioritize is that you 0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:11.520 could use that gun safely and like you another liability 0:13:11.559 --> 0:13:14.679 every time, yeah, that you pick up and load that gun, right. 0:13:15.120 --> 0:13:18.280 Yes, And part of that is in And maybe I 0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:20.400 will have different opinions on this, but I think we're 0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:24.920 probably sympatico picking the right type of firearm. I see 0:13:24.920 --> 0:13:27.160 a lot of people saying, I am worried I'm going 0:13:27.200 --> 0:13:28.320 to get attacked, you know. 0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:28.719 I am. 0:13:28.800 --> 0:13:31.680 I've been I've gotten a death threat. You know, I'm scared, 0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:34.720 particularly of this group of you know, Nazis or whatever. 0:13:34.960 --> 0:13:37.079 So I'm going to buy a handgun. And I will 0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:40.120 tell you right now. My opinion is that if you 0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:44.120 are looking for a self defense weapon, a handgun probably 0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:46.360 shouldn't be what you pick unless you are looking to 0:13:46.600 --> 0:13:47.439 carry a gun. 0:13:47.679 --> 0:13:50.480 Yeah, no, that's a good quote, right. I carry a 0:13:50.520 --> 0:13:53.640 handgun because it's unwieldy to walk around with a fifty 0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:55.520 BMG yeah, yeah, yeah. 0:13:55.360 --> 0:13:58.280 I cannot. I cannot take my ar with me in 0:13:58.320 --> 0:14:00.400 the street, right, so I keep an eye on me. 0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:03.920 You know, handguns are the most difficult thing to use 0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:08.920 skillfully under distress and duress than any other firearm. And yes, 0:14:09.000 --> 0:14:11.599 above and beyond that, they are actually the least the 0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:13.600 fact of it doing the job you think they're going 0:14:13.640 --> 0:14:14.600 to do than anything else. 0:14:14.920 --> 0:14:15.160 Yeah. 0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:18.480 Yeah, they're a shocking number of people are shot way 0:14:18.520 --> 0:14:20.800 more times than you would expect they could survive with 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:24.080 a handgun, right, Like that is just a reality of 0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:26.360 the way that they work, because they're much much less 0:14:26.400 --> 0:14:29.560 powerful than a rifle. And it's also like, I had 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:31.120 a friend a couple of years ago who bought a 0:14:31.160 --> 0:14:33.880 snubnose thirty eight, thinking, well, this is simple, I can't 0:14:33.920 --> 0:14:35.760 fuck it up. It's a good And I took her 0:14:35.800 --> 0:14:39.040 out and was like, I'm going to set up a 0:14:39.080 --> 0:14:41.560 ten foot target and we'll see how many times you 0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:43.800 can hit it with this gun. And she could not 0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:46.520 do it one out of five times. And then I 0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:48.960 brought out my glock and she was able to hit 0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:49.560 it every time. 0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:49.920 Right. 0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:52.840 And it's because one of those is a much easier 0:14:52.880 --> 0:14:56.520 weapon for somebody who is complete a complete novice to 0:14:56.640 --> 0:14:58.560 learn how to use functionally. Right, And it's not the 0:14:58.600 --> 0:15:01.880 snubnose thirty eight in the roughest. 0:15:01.400 --> 0:15:05.880 Of most senses. Typically the smaller the gun is, the 0:15:06.000 --> 0:15:08.840 more a professionally you need to be to use it right. 0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:12.640 Yeah, And like with that in mind, you're responsible for 0:15:12.680 --> 0:15:16.160 every shot you fire right training in self defense? What 0:15:16.680 --> 0:15:18.720 by fucking accident because you don't know how to clean 0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:21.000 your gun or what have you. Every bullet that leaves 0:15:21.000 --> 0:15:24.400 that barrel, it's your fault and every one of those 0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:28.400 is potentially someone's life. So when you're thinking about buying 0:15:28.400 --> 0:15:31.120 a gun, you want to have something where you can 0:15:32.160 --> 0:15:35.120 a handle it safely and be discharging and know where 0:15:35.120 --> 0:15:35.960 that bullet's going to go. 0:15:36.680 --> 0:15:38.400 Yeah. So on that note, this has been asked for 0:15:38.440 --> 0:15:40.360 me many times, and we're talking about we're all we 0:15:40.400 --> 0:15:42.120 are on the same page. It's like when someone asking 0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:43.800 this question and it comes up more than you'd think. 0:15:44.560 --> 0:15:46.240 First of all, we're getting past the issue of like 0:15:46.280 --> 0:15:48.440 are you safe to onllness and safe storage. So now 0:15:48.440 --> 0:15:50.120 we're at the point you are buying a gun, right, 0:15:50.200 --> 0:15:52.440 so you have to think, oh, what's the threat? Are 0:15:52.440 --> 0:15:54.840 we worried about three years from now and the potential 0:15:54.840 --> 0:15:58.640 realities of a very caustic and dangerous political future. Are 0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:01.400 you worried about only defense? Are you worried about your 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:04.520 own self protection walking down the street, because obviously you're 0:16:04.520 --> 0:16:06.160 not going to be well, not obviously, but for the 0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:07.600 most part, you're not going to be carrying an AR 0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:10.360 fifteen down the street. But if you are only worried 0:16:10.400 --> 0:16:12.960 about your castle, make a joke about castle, doctor, And 0:16:13.000 --> 0:16:15.400 if you're only worried about your house, inside your house, 0:16:15.920 --> 0:16:18.720 there is no reason to be picking a pistol none whatsoever. 0:16:19.960 --> 0:16:21.760 Now, I will say that there's a number of folks 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:23.960 in the lefty gun space who will say, so, just 0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:26.640 get an AR fifteen. That's not always going to be 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:29.720 practical depending on your loss, right, Like, that is not 0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:33.800 something that we can say everyone will be able to do, right, Yeah, 0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:36.640 but we can say there will be a non handgun 0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:39.200 option that will probably be a better fit for you. 0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:41.600 Yeah. Absolutely, And this is where we see a lot 0:16:41.600 --> 0:16:43.560 of people in the gun space. It's kind of weird, 0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:47.400 like cultural shifts in the zeitgeist. What's the cool defensive 0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:49.920 thing of the time. But there's a lot to be 0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:52.360 said depending on what you think you're going to have 0:16:52.400 --> 0:16:54.840 to shoot at. Hopefully never of course, but like, yeah, 0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:58.000 an AR fifteen does things like armor piercing in terms 0:16:58.000 --> 0:16:59.800 of kevlar and da da da da dah. But for 0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:03.040 home defense, it really still is kind of hard to 0:17:03.080 --> 0:17:05.439 go wrong with a shotgun in many instances, and that 0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:08.120 should not be ignored. You know what else shouldn't be ignored. 0:17:08.640 --> 0:17:12.000 It's our obligation to pivot to advertisements about every fifteen 0:17:12.000 --> 0:17:25.640 minutes on this show. All right, we're back, Kyle, you'd 0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:29.080 mentioned that you think a shotgun sometimes can be more 0:17:29.119 --> 0:17:30.240 effective than NOW fifteen. 0:17:31.040 --> 0:17:31.440 Especially. 0:17:31.480 --> 0:17:33.000 Another thing I would add, as you're in a state 0:17:33.080 --> 0:17:37.840 like California, the laws regarding Samuel automatic centerfire rifles are 0:17:37.880 --> 0:17:42.280 incredibly confusing. It's extremely easy to buy something on Amazon 0:17:42.320 --> 0:17:44.840 and slap it on your gun and render it a felony. 0:17:44.920 --> 0:17:49.520 Yeah, I would generally say, like in most situations, an AR, 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:51.760 if you're new to shooting, it's going to be easier 0:17:51.800 --> 0:17:55.320 to figure out. They're very simple, easy to upgrade and modify. 0:17:55.480 --> 0:17:58.920 But like, yeah, in California, in a state New York 0:17:59.000 --> 0:18:01.840 is similar, it's very easy to commit a felony with 0:18:01.880 --> 0:18:04.479 an AR fifteen and not know that you are. And 0:18:04.560 --> 0:18:06.320 you don't want to find out that your gun is 0:18:06.359 --> 0:18:08.720 a felony when you have to use it in self defense. 0:18:09.119 --> 0:18:11.520 Right. This is an instance in which the good old 0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:13.520 man again. I'm not trying to perm I'm not I'm 0:18:13.520 --> 0:18:15.399 not on team shotgun here, But when it comes to 0:18:16.080 --> 0:18:19.640 cross all state lines, I mean, sure, there's an exception somewhere, 0:18:19.840 --> 0:18:24.520 but for the most part, a manually pump activated shotgun, yeah, 0:18:24.720 --> 0:18:28.120 is likely to not run a foul of the law anywhere. Additionally, 0:18:28.280 --> 0:18:30.240 there's a good chance that if you were to and 0:18:30.240 --> 0:18:33.000 we have to consider all realities, there's a good chance 0:18:33.000 --> 0:18:35.000 that should you need to use it, that when you're 0:18:35.000 --> 0:18:37.679 in court trying to defend yourself for using this lethal weapon. 0:18:38.080 --> 0:18:42.879 A shotgun doesn't seem to evoke the same concerns let's say, 0:18:43.160 --> 0:18:44.720 from courts and from judges that. 0:18:44.640 --> 0:18:45.600 An ar might and yar. 0:18:45.760 --> 0:18:48.080 You know, regardless of how common they are and how 0:18:48.160 --> 0:18:51.960 much they proliferate society, there's still those scary rifles. A 0:18:52.000 --> 0:18:55.520 shotgun does not tend to evoke that same kind of response. 0:18:55.880 --> 0:18:59.640 It is most likely legal almost anywhere. And the diversity 0:18:59.640 --> 0:19:02.040 of I mean, you can use in it really bridge 0:19:02.040 --> 0:19:04.800 of the gap from one yard to one hundred yards 0:19:04.880 --> 0:19:06.919 or more. But a lot of people that are new 0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:08.440 to guns, we'll think, well, shotgun don't need to aim. 0:19:08.720 --> 0:19:10.719 That is incorrect shotguns need to be aimed as much 0:19:10.760 --> 0:19:13.160 as any other long arm. They're just very effective when 0:19:13.160 --> 0:19:14.160 they actually connect. 0:19:14.480 --> 0:19:18.360 Yeah, it's one of those I think because I do change, 0:19:18.600 --> 0:19:21.080 like what I am taking with me based on where 0:19:21.080 --> 0:19:24.640 I go, and like when I'm in California, I generally 0:19:24.680 --> 0:19:26.720 like if I'm going camping or something, I'll make sure 0:19:26.760 --> 0:19:29.000 i have a twelve gage in the car, right, because 0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:32.520 I'm not going to try to get whatever this month's 0:19:32.520 --> 0:19:35.520 gun laws are, right, you know, like that's just not 0:19:35.760 --> 0:19:38.920 practical to me. That said, I think because there are 0:19:38.960 --> 0:19:41.320 a number of people who will be very frustrated us 0:19:41.400 --> 0:19:44.240 talking about shotguns. One thing that they are right about 0:19:44.280 --> 0:19:47.560 is there's a different type of training that's necessary with 0:19:47.600 --> 0:19:50.440 the shotgun, and they are in some ways more complicated 0:19:50.440 --> 0:19:53.520 to use than an ar. In part because for every shot, 0:19:53.520 --> 0:19:56.080 well unless it's a semi automatic, like for every shot 0:19:56.200 --> 0:19:59.280 you're pumping it, right, and like that is that there's 0:19:59.359 --> 0:20:03.680 muscle memory that has to be built there. Right, it's harder, 0:20:03.840 --> 0:20:05.879 you know, maybe a little bit slower to get up 0:20:05.880 --> 0:20:07.400 to a level or at least you have to train 0:20:07.520 --> 0:20:10.000 differently with it. Right. The other thing about it is 0:20:10.000 --> 0:20:12.480 that like it loads very differently you know, a shotgun 0:20:12.520 --> 0:20:16.400 is a completely different kind of ammunition than an ar has, 0:20:16.440 --> 0:20:18.240 which all goes back to the whole like you have 0:20:18.280 --> 0:20:21.280 to be willing to train with whatever it is you're 0:20:21.320 --> 0:20:23.880 going to use fair enough. Yeah. 0:20:24.200 --> 0:20:24.400 See. 0:20:24.440 --> 0:20:27.880 Ideally, like if you're in this position of thinking, if 0:20:27.920 --> 0:20:31.359 you can find a friend or failing that, arrange that 0:20:31.400 --> 0:20:35.760 will allow you to try different guns. I think as 0:20:35.800 --> 0:20:37.400 a novice you're going to pick up if you've never 0:20:37.400 --> 0:20:39.159 shot a gun before. I probably wouldn't pick up a 0:20:39.200 --> 0:20:42.600 twelve gage shotgun and start pueuing away because the recoil 0:20:42.600 --> 0:20:45.440 will be quite profound and notable to you. So don't 0:20:45.480 --> 0:20:47.119 start there. Start with something else. 0:20:47.640 --> 0:20:50.600 There's smaller shotguns a twenty gauge, yeah. 0:20:50.280 --> 0:20:52.960 And those are fine expectedly if you're a smaller statute person, 0:20:53.000 --> 0:20:55.520 even a twenty eight or sixteams are hard to probably 0:20:55.560 --> 0:20:56.560 buy defensive ammunition. 0:20:56.600 --> 0:20:56.800 Four. 0:20:56.880 --> 0:21:01.240 But I think if you can and you begin that journey, 0:21:01.359 --> 0:21:03.760 like after the TV ball, say with Hangouns, find one 0:21:03.800 --> 0:21:04.480 that fits your hand. 0:21:04.560 --> 0:21:05.280 You probably have no. 0:21:05.320 --> 0:21:07.679 Idea what fits you and feels good if you're just 0:21:07.720 --> 0:21:11.640 starting out. Yeah, finding someone who is local to you, 0:21:11.960 --> 0:21:15.359 ideally who has some experience who can help you along 0:21:15.400 --> 0:21:18.000 that process, I think, and someone who you trust, right, 0:21:18.080 --> 0:21:20.400 Like I've been like I have to train. 0:21:20.560 --> 0:21:22.639 I have a concealed carry weapons permit in California. 0:21:22.920 --> 0:21:25.159 The last time I went to take a course, like 0:21:25.520 --> 0:21:30.800 from the outset, I got like xenophobia, homophobia, like jokes 0:21:30.840 --> 0:21:33.119 that I guess the guy who was instructing the course 0:21:33.359 --> 0:21:36.000 thought that everyone was in on just like they made 0:21:36.040 --> 0:21:39.320 me feel unwelcome and I'm a cis heep white guy. Yeah, 0:21:39.359 --> 0:21:42.000 but I think maybe we should address that, Like, if 0:21:42.040 --> 0:21:44.399 you're thinking getting started, what kind of instruction should you 0:21:44.480 --> 0:21:47.560 look for? Where should you look for it? And like 0:21:48.640 --> 0:21:51.679 what would you recommend maybe other sources to Kyle, Like 0:21:51.880 --> 0:21:54.040 your YouTube channel has been a great resource for me. 0:21:55.359 --> 0:21:58.640 This is this is where we're in the firearms it's 0:21:58.960 --> 0:22:01.160 owning a thing doesn't mean a community. So there's always 0:22:01.200 --> 0:22:03.919 phrase the gun community. It's not a thing. Owning a 0:22:03.920 --> 0:22:05.840 thing doesn't make a community. A community is a group 0:22:05.880 --> 0:22:08.679 of people that bond together over a mutual beliefs and 0:22:08.720 --> 0:22:12.120 hopefully care for one another. So there's no firearms community. 0:22:12.119 --> 0:22:14.399 But that said, the broad scope of people that have 0:22:14.480 --> 0:22:17.000 been interested in the topic for the longest duration of 0:22:17.040 --> 0:22:20.199 time has been mostly seceded to a group that we 0:22:20.200 --> 0:22:23.280 would not find ourselves aligned with or comfortable with being around. 0:22:23.440 --> 0:22:26.000 And so this is where the community building thing is 0:22:26.040 --> 0:22:28.800 real because the more we build communities and we're behind 0:22:28.840 --> 0:22:31.639 in this regards in terms to alternative voices in the 0:22:31.640 --> 0:22:34.160 firearm space, but the more we build that community not 0:22:34.200 --> 0:22:36.960 only online but amongst one another, the more we're going 0:22:36.960 --> 0:22:40.800 to have safer, better spaces for us to work together 0:22:40.880 --> 0:22:43.400 to learn how to use these things safely and efficiently. 0:22:43.800 --> 0:22:46.200 And that is a challenge. If you walk in sight 0:22:46.320 --> 0:22:48.439 unseen to a place that is probably foreign to you 0:22:49.000 --> 0:22:51.880 in firearms land, sadly at this time point in time, 0:22:52.000 --> 0:22:53.760 is a pretty good chance it's not going to be 0:22:54.359 --> 0:22:56.760 something you're going to be comfortable with, quite honestly, just 0:22:56.800 --> 0:22:58.240 like you mentioned, James, like, it's going to be that 0:22:58.320 --> 0:23:00.600 kind of stuff. There's probably going to be Trump stuff 0:23:00.600 --> 0:23:03.119 on the wall, there's probably going you're probably going to 0:23:03.160 --> 0:23:05.600 hear some jokes that are just jokes but you know 0:23:05.640 --> 0:23:07.719 they're really not. Yeah, that's the kind of space that 0:23:07.720 --> 0:23:10.160 that's filled with. And so when people come and say, 0:23:10.160 --> 0:23:11.679 well who can I go to to get this training with, 0:23:11.760 --> 0:23:15.240 I'm like, that's challenging. There's some options online. There's like 0:23:15.280 --> 0:23:19.760 Operation Blazing Sword, there's a there's there's the Liberal Gun 0:23:19.760 --> 0:23:22.760 Club has some training options as well. But what's better 0:23:22.840 --> 0:23:25.960 is finding people and interconnecting with people of like mind 0:23:26.000 --> 0:23:29.000 around you, if you can, and working together, and then 0:23:29.040 --> 0:23:32.040 actually building a real community that isn't a gun community. 0:23:32.280 --> 0:23:33.879 And that's where we're going to find solace in the 0:23:33.880 --> 0:23:36.159 ability to get better with this stuff together. Not a 0:23:36.160 --> 0:23:39.080 great exactly a strong answer, but if the truth. But 0:23:39.119 --> 0:23:43.440 if you're going in, if you're going in just unhindered, 0:23:43.680 --> 0:23:45.600 you're going to expect it to be a place that 0:23:45.640 --> 0:23:47.240 you're probably not going to be happy with. 0:23:47.880 --> 0:23:48.080 Yeah. 0:23:48.160 --> 0:23:50.960 Yeah, And I think that's a really good point. I'd 0:23:51.000 --> 0:23:52.879 like you can we talk a little bit more about 0:23:53.600 --> 0:23:57.880 training options, like not just because you mentioned Operation Blazing Sword, 0:23:57.920 --> 0:23:59.879 I'd like to hear a little more about them, but 0:24:00.040 --> 0:24:03.240 also where people could go for like reading and videos 0:24:03.760 --> 0:24:06.920 in order to kind of find more information on how 0:24:06.960 --> 0:24:08.280 to develop proficiency. 0:24:08.480 --> 0:24:11.359 Yeah. So okay, so YouTube university doesn't teach you how 0:24:11.359 --> 0:24:14.400 to actually like effectively hit targets with something that stiffly 0:24:14.680 --> 0:24:16.760 that you can You can't. There's no way to learn 0:24:16.800 --> 0:24:21.560 that besides doing it. But in terms of general firearms understanding, 0:24:21.880 --> 0:24:24.280 learning some of the history, learning about how guns work, 0:24:24.640 --> 0:24:28.440 there are some YouTube resources out there. Tactical Girlfriend you 0:24:28.480 --> 0:24:31.560 already mentioned, has four years of a legacy of content 0:24:31.640 --> 0:24:33.640 on her site that a lot of it is focused 0:24:33.640 --> 0:24:37.240 on beginner style content. In fact, she just posted a playlist. 0:24:38.000 --> 0:24:40.040 She has kind of stopped making videos in general, she 0:24:40.080 --> 0:24:42.199 mentioned that a while back, but she still has her 0:24:42.240 --> 0:24:45.520 content online and she posted a playlist recently of all 0:24:45.560 --> 0:24:48.240 of her how to get going videos one oh one stuff, 0:24:48.440 --> 0:24:52.400 and that would kind of be where I'd start with. Yes, absolutely, 0:24:52.520 --> 0:24:54.960 my channel in Range TV has some of that. I 0:24:55.040 --> 0:24:56.880 tend to focus a little bit on the more esoteric 0:24:56.920 --> 0:25:01.440 and like next level, but that's not to say it's 0:25:01.440 --> 0:25:03.480 not there as well. So I'm not trying to sell promote, 0:25:03.480 --> 0:25:05.560 but I would actually say her playlist is going to 0:25:05.560 --> 0:25:06.960 be better than some of my own, although we have 0:25:07.000 --> 0:25:09.280 stuff like that on in Range TV as well. If 0:25:09.280 --> 0:25:12.119 you want to open up that dark boy called reddit, 0:25:12.520 --> 0:25:15.040 the Liberal Gun Club has resources on it. If you 0:25:15.040 --> 0:25:17.399 go there, they have a list of people and local resources. 0:25:17.560 --> 0:25:20.119 You can also google the Liberal Gun Club. I'm not 0:25:20.119 --> 0:25:22.679 even trying to say anyone doing that is necessarily identifying 0:25:22.680 --> 0:25:26.280 as a liberal, but they have gathered lists of statewide 0:25:26.359 --> 0:25:29.400 resources as many as they can that are providing training 0:25:29.680 --> 0:25:32.080 in regional places. That would be a good place to start. 0:25:32.520 --> 0:25:35.199 Operation Blating Sword is a subset of that. Blake o'l 0:25:35.440 --> 0:25:37.600 I can I pronounced them that dam Blake has been 0:25:37.600 --> 0:25:39.960 on my channel and you'll find him there in the 0:25:39.960 --> 0:25:42.080 Liberal Gun Club listing. When I think of that, I 0:25:42.119 --> 0:25:44.240 would say, go to YouTube. He had a tactical girlfriend. 0:25:44.600 --> 0:25:46.200 Go to in Range TV if you want to see 0:25:46.240 --> 0:25:48.159 maybe not one on one but next level stuff, but 0:25:48.400 --> 0:25:50.800 a friendly space to you, and then check out the 0:25:50.840 --> 0:25:53.760 Liberal Gun Club best I can say, because they do 0:25:53.840 --> 0:25:57.080 have a list of resources that they're gathering across the country. 0:25:57.280 --> 0:26:00.200 Yeah, and I think one thing that tactical girl old 0:26:00.200 --> 0:26:03.320 friend talks about that is a because because you're right, 0:26:03.400 --> 0:26:05.080 and I think this is an important point that like, 0:26:05.160 --> 0:26:07.640 you have to spend time shooting, and you know that 0:26:07.720 --> 0:26:10.280 costs money in order to get better, But there is 0:26:10.480 --> 0:26:13.200 one thing that you can do that does not cost 0:26:13.359 --> 0:26:16.760 ongoing money to get better with a handgun if you're 0:26:16.800 --> 0:26:19.440 again looking to carry a gun, which is dry fire training, right, 0:26:19.480 --> 0:26:23.479 which is a very useful process of building proficiency. You 0:26:23.520 --> 0:26:25.080 can do it. I mean you could do it every 0:26:25.119 --> 0:26:26.919 day if you want. It will help. It does not 0:26:27.040 --> 0:26:31.200 replace needing to go shoot right, but you can find guides. 0:26:31.280 --> 0:26:33.239 Tactical girlfriend talks about it a lot, but you can 0:26:33.280 --> 0:26:36.040 find other guides online. And that is a way that 0:26:36.080 --> 0:26:39.400 you can kind of stretch your AMMO budget and gain 0:26:39.440 --> 0:26:40.640 additional proficiency. 0:26:41.240 --> 0:26:43.680 There are even products design specifically for that. One of 0:26:43.720 --> 0:26:45.919 them Possule Mind and there are others like mantis X, 0:26:46.200 --> 0:26:48.240 and you make sure your gun is safely unloaded in 0:26:48.280 --> 0:26:50.520 your proficient with that part of it. You put these 0:26:50.520 --> 0:26:52.680 devices in and you can actually fire a dry fire 0:26:52.800 --> 0:26:55.159 is firing with no ammunition the gun, click out a 0:26:55.160 --> 0:26:57.040 target on the wall, and it'll teach you things about 0:26:57.040 --> 0:26:58.880 like did you pull to the right, did you push 0:26:58.880 --> 0:27:00.760 to the yes? Did you dip the gone? And those 0:27:00.800 --> 0:27:02.520 are very good products that you can use once you 0:27:02.520 --> 0:27:05.320 buy them. Gets more money, but you could train professionally 0:27:05.359 --> 0:27:08.280 in a safe place without firing live ammunition and improve 0:27:08.280 --> 0:27:09.200 your skills quite a bit. 0:27:09.359 --> 0:27:10.400 That's a good point, yep. 0:27:10.480 --> 0:27:14.399 Yeah, I would say like another organization I would plug 0:27:14.440 --> 0:27:19.560 is armed Equality, especially for like LGBTQIA people. Friends of mine, 0:27:19.640 --> 0:27:23.280 very nice people. Perhaps we should go back then to that, 0:27:23.359 --> 0:27:25.480 Like Roberts mentioned dry firing, we'd meant. 0:27:25.400 --> 0:27:27.760 Well, first, I think we need to go to ads Jas. 0:27:27.760 --> 0:27:30.440 You're right, Robert, we should go back to Chumba Casino. 0:27:30.920 --> 0:27:33.280 Yeah, so dry fire at the wall and think of 0:27:33.359 --> 0:27:36.359 Trumpet Casino, or just download an operator from neurallink that 0:27:36.400 --> 0:27:38.600 you got for me long Yep, that's right, that's right. 0:27:38.800 --> 0:27:41.080 Our primary sponsors a brain ship. 0:27:53.200 --> 0:27:54.399 All right, we're back. 0:27:54.920 --> 0:27:58.720 So we've had discussion about training, safe storage, and a 0:27:58.720 --> 0:28:01.840 little bit about like what to look at firearms wise. 0:28:02.520 --> 0:28:04.800 I want to go back to that third one because 0:28:05.680 --> 0:28:09.000 you are marketed at so heavily when you're trying to 0:28:09.000 --> 0:28:13.320 buy a firearm, right, and the likelihood of you getting misinformation. 0:28:13.480 --> 0:28:13.640 Right. 0:28:13.880 --> 0:28:17.040 We all know smaller statute people who have been given 0:28:17.160 --> 0:28:21.119 yeah as snubnose thirty eight, a gun that's entirely inappropriate 0:28:21.200 --> 0:28:21.520 for them. 0:28:22.119 --> 0:28:22.320 Cow. 0:28:22.440 --> 0:28:25.560 What like if you could maybe go through like each 0:28:25.720 --> 0:28:31.520 major category, right, if we do hanggun, shotgun, semi automatic rifle, 0:28:31.560 --> 0:28:35.240 maybe one that is compatible with ar band states, and 0:28:35.480 --> 0:28:38.680 one that's you know, yeah, you're in real America. 0:28:39.280 --> 0:28:41.920 There are some options like the ares SCR that are 0:28:42.000 --> 0:28:45.040 basically AR fifteen's that are a lot easier to keep 0:28:45.040 --> 0:28:47.520 in compliance in a state like California, but they are 0:28:47.600 --> 0:28:50.560 also more than twice as expensive as like a budget 0:28:50.800 --> 0:28:53.720 AR fifteen right like, Which is not to say it's 0:28:53.760 --> 0:28:57.120 impossible to have a budget AR fifteen that is in 0:28:57.400 --> 0:28:59.920 comp a lot in compliance with California law. It's just 0:29:00.400 --> 0:29:02.600 I am not going to take on the responsibility of 0:29:02.640 --> 0:29:05.360 telling you how to do that legally, because when I 0:29:05.400 --> 0:29:08.560 lived in California, I was only about eighty percent share 0:29:08.600 --> 0:29:10.480 that I was in compliance. 0:29:09.880 --> 0:29:10.440 With the law. 0:29:10.920 --> 0:29:13.160 If you're in California, my advice would be to go 0:29:13.280 --> 0:29:15.720 to a shop and buy the gun complete. 0:29:15.800 --> 0:29:18.160 Yes, don't piece it together of the Internet. 0:29:18.560 --> 0:29:19.560 That's good, good advice. 0:29:19.560 --> 0:29:21.200 Oh well, if you're a new gun owner, don't piece 0:29:21.200 --> 0:29:23.640 to get anything together, because the knowledge to make something 0:29:23.640 --> 0:29:26.160 reliable that you've put together from bits and pieces is 0:29:26.280 --> 0:29:28.480 not a good idea. You want something that's got to 0:29:28.560 --> 0:29:30.440 I mean literally, you want something from a quote unquote 0:29:30.480 --> 0:29:33.800 reputable manufacturer, but as a warranty, like, let's just be that. 0:29:33.880 --> 0:29:36.320 Don't even start with trying to put something together. Yeah yeah, 0:29:36.360 --> 0:29:38.080 so let's just go ahead and start with pistol. So 0:29:38.280 --> 0:29:40.280 the challenge there is like, of course, it would be 0:29:40.360 --> 0:29:42.000 very nice to be able to buy like four of them, 0:29:42.000 --> 0:29:44.240 because you can train with the twenty two and practice 0:29:44.240 --> 0:29:46.880 with this. M Well, let's go with the constraint that 0:29:46.920 --> 0:29:48.720 we had earlier of this thousand dollars and you're going 0:29:48.760 --> 0:29:51.360 to buy a pistol and with it you plan to train, 0:29:51.800 --> 0:29:54.760 get better, be proficient, but also maybe have to use 0:29:54.800 --> 0:29:56.800 it for self defense. You really want to stick with 0:29:56.880 --> 0:29:58.920 a nine millimeter. I mean there are smaller guns like 0:29:58.960 --> 0:30:00.760 three eighties and such like that, but we're getting into 0:30:00.760 --> 0:30:03.200 specialist guns. Yeah, what is what I'm going to say 0:30:03.240 --> 0:30:05.000 here across the board? When I recommend something, it's going 0:30:05.040 --> 0:30:06.880 to be the opposite of specialist. It's going to be 0:30:06.880 --> 0:30:08.520 the most bland, boring possible thing. 0:30:08.720 --> 0:30:08.920 Yeah. 0:30:08.960 --> 0:30:10.760 And when it comes to that, and I know that, 0:30:10.800 --> 0:30:15.240 everyone like, but it's a nine millimeter probably a glock yep. 0:30:15.280 --> 0:30:19.080 The Glock nineteen is a relatively reasonably sized gun. The 0:30:19.080 --> 0:30:21.920 seventeen's a little bigger the nineteens. In this nice middle ground, 0:30:22.280 --> 0:30:24.600 it is carriable, it's small enough to be concealed should 0:30:24.640 --> 0:30:26.560 you have the right to do so, but it's big 0:30:26.680 --> 0:30:30.000 enough to be viable for being reasonably accurate with with 0:30:31.040 --> 0:30:33.840 not extensive amounts of training, but enough training to get good. 0:30:34.040 --> 0:30:34.360 Yeah. 0:30:34.400 --> 0:30:37.280 And it's a bunch around the nine milimeters magazine that 0:30:37.560 --> 0:30:39.760 just playing works. Yep, Yeah, yep. 0:30:40.000 --> 0:30:42.440 If you're on a tight bygit, I will say that 0:30:42.520 --> 0:30:45.479 cops are always you can find trade in police clocks 0:30:45.520 --> 0:30:47.400 pretty cheap, cops don't shoot very much. 0:30:48.080 --> 0:30:49.960 You can sometimes get some pretty good deals on those. 0:30:50.200 --> 0:30:50.440 Yep. 0:30:50.680 --> 0:30:52.880 That's it. I'm revealing a little bit of future history 0:30:52.880 --> 0:30:54.560 of what's going on in range. We're doing a video 0:30:54.600 --> 0:30:57.600 in a couple of weeks. There is a strange trade 0:30:57.920 --> 0:31:00.960 imbalance between us and never mind on the politics. Yeah, 0:31:01.040 --> 0:31:03.640 Turkey and they are making some really high end, oh 0:31:04.040 --> 0:31:07.440 well made gun There is a glock clone from Turkey 0:31:07.480 --> 0:31:09.360 that I can vouch for yet. But this is the 0:31:09.440 --> 0:31:11.640 kind of where we're at in the gun space. This 0:31:11.720 --> 0:31:14.960 thing is interchangeable with all glock parts and the guns 0:31:14.960 --> 0:31:17.160 like two hundred fifty bucks. Oh well, you can't be 0:31:17.320 --> 0:31:19.160 We don't know. Yeah, I'm not saying go buy that, 0:31:19.240 --> 0:31:20.880 but I'm saying we're going to do a review of it. 0:31:21.080 --> 0:31:23.680 The point is there are glocks and glocklike things. They 0:31:23.720 --> 0:31:24.800 can get the price down. 0:31:25.240 --> 0:31:27.320 Yeah, right, And so you're looking at you know, if 0:31:27.320 --> 0:31:30.600 you get a budget ar for five hundred bucks, you know, 0:31:30.680 --> 0:31:34.240 a budget not a nine millimeter handgun. Because even if 0:31:34.320 --> 0:31:37.120 with not counting that one, there are other budget options 0:31:37.160 --> 0:31:40.120 that are in the three hundred ish dollar range. You 0:31:40.320 --> 0:31:42.680 just have to look around a bit. And I should 0:31:42.680 --> 0:31:45.720 also note buying used with a firearm is not like 0:31:45.760 --> 0:31:48.760 buying used with electronics. If a gun is well maintained, 0:31:48.760 --> 0:31:51.640 it will outlast you. Right, there are some parts that 0:31:51.680 --> 0:31:54.280 will need replacing from time to time. Right, Your springs 0:31:54.320 --> 0:31:56.480 and stuff are going to age faster than other things. 0:31:56.800 --> 0:31:59.560 And like barrels, you can shoot out, but it takes 0:31:59.640 --> 0:32:03.400 quite a bit of shooting to shoot a barrel, you know, smooth. Right, 0:32:03.760 --> 0:32:06.960 So it's never a bad to consider like finding, like 0:32:07.000 --> 0:32:09.080 you said, like a police trade in or something like that, 0:32:09.120 --> 0:32:10.840 Like that could be a great way to save money. 0:32:11.000 --> 0:32:11.560 Absolutely. 0:32:11.560 --> 0:32:13.280 So when it comes to the pistol, we're talking about 0:32:13.320 --> 0:32:16.000 buying just one pretty much boil it down to a 0:32:16.160 --> 0:32:19.680 nine millimeter yep, that is probably a polymer frame gun, 0:32:19.760 --> 0:32:22.520 not some big heavy steel thing. A glock is the 0:32:22.800 --> 0:32:25.080 is like the de facto, but there are others. I mean, 0:32:25.080 --> 0:32:26.800 there's there's hks, there's rugers. 0:32:26.880 --> 0:32:27.440 Yeah. 0:32:27.520 --> 0:32:30.840 I like SIGs, but they're pricier. Yeah, yeah, yeah. The 0:32:30.880 --> 0:32:33.160 thing about glock is block's been around forever. It's the 0:32:33.200 --> 0:32:38.479 standard finding, accessorizing, buying magazines, or even getting repairs done 0:32:38.520 --> 0:32:40.720 to a block is ubiquitous across the country. If you 0:32:40.720 --> 0:32:42.680 get a glock y, you'll be able to deal with it, 0:32:42.720 --> 0:32:44.640 fix it, do whatever you want to it straight up. 0:32:45.440 --> 0:32:48.400 And what has helped me a lot in general is, 0:32:48.440 --> 0:32:51.320 you know, I have my carry gun, I have my 0:32:51.320 --> 0:32:54.680 my home defense firearm, and then I have I have 0:32:54.800 --> 0:32:57.120 bought built a couple of firearms from the ground up, 0:32:57.160 --> 0:32:58.920 and I would certainly, as you said, I would never 0:32:58.960 --> 0:33:01.560 have started there. But because I had the extra money 0:33:01.600 --> 0:33:04.200 doing that means that has given me so much deeper 0:33:04.200 --> 0:33:06.640 of an understanding of what goes wrong when things do 0:33:06.800 --> 0:33:09.200 go wrong with a gun and how to fix it. 0:33:09.400 --> 0:33:13.280 I've replaced every part on my carry gun at this point, 0:33:13.360 --> 0:33:16.960 right like, over time, and it's given me a much 0:33:16.960 --> 0:33:19.360 deeper level of understanding off just like mechanically, how these 0:33:19.400 --> 0:33:21.800 things function. You know, building an AR fifteen was the 0:33:21.840 --> 0:33:25.640 same process, and I'm really I do find that valuable. Obviously, 0:33:25.680 --> 0:33:29.680 it's throwing more money at the problem too totally. 0:33:29.760 --> 0:33:33.400 So the other advantage of nine milimeter, which is reasonably 0:33:33.480 --> 0:33:36.680 cheap defeat and shoot, he reasonably cheap to practice with. 0:33:36.720 --> 0:33:38.600 For those of you that don't know anything about guns. 0:33:38.840 --> 0:33:42.720 He will typically practice with what's called FMJ bulkpack ammunition. Yeah, 0:33:42.840 --> 0:33:45.360 nine milimeter one hundred and fifteen grain. It's just a 0:33:45.400 --> 0:33:47.640 bullet that's got a copper jacket on it, and that's 0:33:47.680 --> 0:33:50.800 your practice AMMO. And then for Carrie, should you be 0:33:50.840 --> 0:33:53.520 carrying it, you'll probably want to carry something that's specifically 0:33:53.520 --> 0:33:56.560 designed to be defensive ammunition. It'll be far more expensive 0:33:56.600 --> 0:33:58.920 per box, But once you get to the point of yes, 0:33:58.960 --> 0:34:01.840 I am ready safe and capable to carry this, you're 0:34:01.880 --> 0:34:04.280 going to want to pick something gold Dots Spear gold 0:34:04.280 --> 0:34:06.480 Dots are a haul of point ye designed to specifically 0:34:06.560 --> 0:34:08.839 be for self defense. But make sure the gun you've 0:34:08.920 --> 0:34:12.440 chosen works reliably with that defensive AMMO, because even though 0:34:12.440 --> 0:34:15.000 it works one hundred percent with that FMJ, it may 0:34:15.040 --> 0:34:16.879 not work with the defensive AMMI. Y'ALLMO have to play 0:34:16.880 --> 0:34:17.440 with a little bit. 0:34:18.080 --> 0:34:21.560 Yeah, we should also know when you are buying AMMO online, 0:34:21.600 --> 0:34:23.319 which is not going to be legal in every state. 0:34:23.360 --> 0:34:26.040 But most people will be able to do this. It 0:34:26.200 --> 0:34:29.480 pays to be careful. There is a lot of stuff 0:34:29.520 --> 0:34:32.239 that is sketchier out there, and there can be consequences. 0:34:32.239 --> 0:34:34.239 I have had a firearm. I have had like a 0:34:34.280 --> 0:34:37.440 handgun blow up in my hand as a result of 0:34:37.480 --> 0:34:41.000 getting ammunition that I had not shot before. This was 0:34:41.000 --> 0:34:44.279 in fact turkish. I think it was because I think 0:34:44.280 --> 0:34:47.000 it was a hot load, but it's possible that it 0:34:47.040 --> 0:34:50.279 was the result of a bullet be a squib and 0:34:50.440 --> 0:34:53.000 that then jammed in the barrel and then another around 0:34:53.040 --> 0:34:55.920 came in after it. I generally have been pretty good 0:34:55.960 --> 0:34:57.840 at checking to make sure there's a hole in the 0:34:57.880 --> 0:35:00.000 paper with each shot, which is something you should be 0:35:00.160 --> 0:35:03.600 making sure of, like yeah, when you're shooting, because if 0:35:03.640 --> 0:35:06.440 you get if you shoot around that like does not 0:35:06.719 --> 0:35:08.759 have enough powder behind it, right, if you get a 0:35:08.760 --> 0:35:11.080 bad round, it can jam in the barrel, and then 0:35:11.080 --> 0:35:13.680 the second round can cause the barrel to burst. This 0:35:13.719 --> 0:35:16.560 is also why we always wear eye protection. But when 0:35:16.600 --> 0:35:18.560 looking at AMMO, if you think this looks like good 0:35:18.560 --> 0:35:22.000 AMMO and it's cheap, look online add like reddit to 0:35:22.040 --> 0:35:24.439 the name. See what other people say about it, right, 0:35:24.520 --> 0:35:26.640 Like see if you can find anything written about that. 0:35:26.719 --> 0:35:29.560 If other usually other people, if it's like a less 0:35:29.600 --> 0:35:33.279 reliable manufacturer, will have said I've had a bad experience 0:35:33.440 --> 0:35:36.560 with this ammunition. Yep, do your diligence right the first 0:35:36.640 --> 0:35:39.120 time you're shooting a new kind of cheap target AMMO. 0:35:39.840 --> 0:35:42.279 That that being said, like there's a lot of names 0:35:42.280 --> 0:35:44.640 that almost anyone that's never owned a gun before will recognize, 0:35:44.719 --> 0:35:48.440 names like Remington, right, Winchester. Yes, these are That's not 0:35:48.520 --> 0:35:50.640 to say that they don't make mistakes too, but like, 0:35:50.719 --> 0:35:53.040 if you're going to go buy a Winchester bulk back 0:35:53.080 --> 0:35:56.400 of ammunition, you are bonding at least what is generally 0:35:56.400 --> 0:35:58.560 considered consumer level reliable AMMO. 0:35:58.880 --> 0:36:02.279 If you're buying it absolutely crazy, Bob's reloading shack right, 0:36:02.320 --> 0:36:05.439 you don't know that was what because it's a lot 0:36:05.480 --> 0:36:08.239 of the sketchy stuff isn't even a manufacturer. It's like 0:36:08.400 --> 0:36:10.759 Ammo that you may not notice immediately it's like, oh wow, 0:36:10.760 --> 0:36:12.919 this seems really cheap, and then it'll say in small 0:36:13.000 --> 0:36:18.120 letters remanufactured right, which means somebody has reloaded it, reloaded AMMA, 0:36:18.160 --> 0:36:19.840 And like you know, you can reload Ammo and have 0:36:19.880 --> 0:36:23.120 it be perfectly good ammunition. But do you know who 0:36:23.160 --> 0:36:24.120 reloaded this amo? 0:36:24.360 --> 0:36:24.520 Right? 0:36:25.360 --> 0:36:27.080 I will tell you as a person that shoots a 0:36:27.080 --> 0:36:29.400 lot and has been doing it for decades, I personally, 0:36:29.760 --> 0:36:32.840 even with all that, I will never fire re manufactured ammunition. 0:36:32.920 --> 0:36:35.839 I want to deal with Crazy Bob's weird badnes Yes. 0:36:36.160 --> 0:36:38.920 Yes, yes, exactly, Crazy Bob's bad Wednesday. 0:36:39.680 --> 0:36:41.000 It's yeah. 0:36:42.880 --> 0:36:46.440 We've addressed a pistol, right, like I want to dress lunguns. 0:36:46.480 --> 0:36:48.719 And then you mentioned a couple of things callege. You 0:36:48.719 --> 0:36:52.000 should also address whitch up like accessories. Robert mentioned eye protection. 0:36:52.200 --> 0:36:55.040 So let me let me add one more piece of 0:36:55.080 --> 0:36:55.440 the pistol. 0:36:55.480 --> 0:36:57.239 We'll move on. Uh. 0:36:57.920 --> 0:37:00.400 The thing now, the whizbang thing now is every custill 0:37:00.440 --> 0:37:01.960 has a red dot site on it. A red dot 0:37:02.000 --> 0:37:04.520 site is essentially an electro optical box that sits on 0:37:04.560 --> 0:37:06.640 the top of the slide and you look through it 0:37:06.680 --> 0:37:08.800 to aim and it projects a red dot like almost 0:37:08.920 --> 0:37:10.720 like a laser dot if you're not familiar with it 0:37:10.760 --> 0:37:14.040 to aim with. For the most part, I'm not saying 0:37:14.040 --> 0:37:16.160 you shouldn't have one because they're cool, But for the 0:37:16.200 --> 0:37:18.680 most part, a person getting into this specifically for self 0:37:18.680 --> 0:37:21.480 defense does not need one of those. You don't need 0:37:21.520 --> 0:37:23.799 to spend three hundred dollars on a red dot. The 0:37:23.840 --> 0:37:26.000 iron sights that come on any of these guns should 0:37:26.000 --> 0:37:28.960 be sufficient for most purposes. So don't get suckered into 0:37:29.120 --> 0:37:31.160 I need that. Yeah, if that's something you want later, 0:37:31.239 --> 0:37:33.080 think about it, but it's not a requirement. 0:37:33.640 --> 0:37:33.759 Now. 0:37:33.800 --> 0:37:35.759 That said, if a gun has one on it, I 0:37:35.760 --> 0:37:37.640 don't agree with people who say, like, you can't learn 0:37:37.719 --> 0:37:39.920 to shoot on a red dot. I think that that's 0:37:40.000 --> 0:37:42.959 now you should. You will need to look up because 0:37:43.000 --> 0:37:45.920 it may not be sighted, how to site it right, 0:37:47.320 --> 0:37:49.680 because it like red dots are a thing like you 0:37:49.760 --> 0:37:52.120 need to dial them in right, and there is a 0:37:52.200 --> 0:37:54.960 way to do that. Again, you can find guides to 0:37:54.960 --> 0:37:57.200 this online, just like you can find guides like mounting 0:37:57.200 --> 0:38:01.640 a scope on a rifle. These are complex mechanical tasks. 0:38:01.920 --> 0:38:04.279 A red dot less so than a scope. But you 0:38:04.320 --> 0:38:06.440 can't just buy a gun with a red dot on 0:38:06.520 --> 0:38:08.919 it and trust that that red dot points out where 0:38:08.920 --> 0:38:10.959 the bullet's going to go. That's not how they work. 0:38:11.320 --> 0:38:13.439 Absolutely. My point being is if you gave me, you said, 0:38:13.880 --> 0:38:15.440 this person here needs to be able to hit a 0:38:15.480 --> 0:38:18.120 target fifteen yards away, you've got one hour, right, I 0:38:18.160 --> 0:38:20.040 would not be messing by giving them a red dot. 0:38:20.080 --> 0:38:21.719 I would give them with something with iron sights and 0:38:21.760 --> 0:38:22.800 just get them through the task. 0:38:22.800 --> 0:38:24.960 If that's what go where I'm going with that, Yeah, 0:38:25.400 --> 0:38:29.359 I think that's perfectly reasonable. Yeah. I prefer, like, now 0:38:29.360 --> 0:38:31.520 that I know what I'm doing, to use my red 0:38:31.560 --> 0:38:34.000 dots and stuff. But I also pretty regularly shoot with 0:38:34.080 --> 0:38:37.439 iron sights, in part because I like it, Like it's 0:38:37.520 --> 0:38:40.400 it's enjoyable mechanically, and it's kind of how I learned. 0:38:40.600 --> 0:38:43.160 Yeah, or don't get me wrong, it is better. Yeah, Yeah, 0:38:43.280 --> 0:38:46.239 it also has another level of complexity and it's more 0:38:46.280 --> 0:38:48.040 to go wrong, Like if you're installing that. 0:38:48.040 --> 0:38:51.759 Yourself, it's annoying and it's easy to mess up and 0:38:51.800 --> 0:38:56.040 then you're yeah upset and yeah. Yeah, let's move on 0:38:56.160 --> 0:38:59.560 to long guns. Like one thing that we should mention 0:39:00.239 --> 0:39:04.160 that you might buy an AR, specifically an AR actually 0:39:04.320 --> 0:39:07.240 and find that it comes with no sighting systems at all. Yes, 0:39:07.440 --> 0:39:09.920 and that's a thing to build into a budget. So 0:39:10.440 --> 0:39:13.239 let's talk about like what to get feel budget in 0:39:13.239 --> 0:39:14.680 in their long gun catcherycal. 0:39:15.040 --> 0:39:16.799 Yeah, so when we go to long guns, we talk 0:39:16.840 --> 0:39:19.200 about rifles and shotguns. Let's stick with rifles for now 0:39:19.200 --> 0:39:22.600 I'm assuming so in that regard, this is the thing 0:39:22.600 --> 0:39:24.440 where like, actually I have a video on my channel 0:39:24.440 --> 0:39:26.879 about the NFA, which is the National Firearms Act, which 0:39:26.920 --> 0:39:29.399 is what regulates a lot of machine guns and stuff. 0:39:29.440 --> 0:39:32.759 But this also occurs across many gun control laws. They're 0:39:32.800 --> 0:39:36.080 frequently ablest and the things that they pust the most 0:39:36.120 --> 0:39:39.320 rescriptions on are the things that are actually most capable. 0:39:39.719 --> 0:39:44.320 And that means that means AAR fifteen's in their general 0:39:44.320 --> 0:39:46.560 guys with a pistol grip and a red dot site 0:39:46.560 --> 0:39:49.160 which we just mentioned for pistols and a thirty round 0:39:49.200 --> 0:39:51.399 magazine is the thing that is going to be the 0:39:51.440 --> 0:39:55.840 most I could get anyone. I tell you, anyone capable 0:39:55.840 --> 0:39:57.920 of hitting at a target at fifty yards within a 0:39:57.920 --> 0:40:00.799 four hour training session with a red dot sided Air 0:40:00.880 --> 0:40:03.480 fifteen and a good magazine. It's a good ammunition. Air 0:40:03.520 --> 0:40:06.920 fifteens are light, low recoil. They're loud because of the 0:40:07.040 --> 0:40:09.759 five five six, but they're light, low recoil guns that 0:40:09.840 --> 0:40:14.440 almost any one of most body structure can handle. Now 0:40:14.440 --> 0:40:17.040 there's exceptions, of course, if you have specific physical challenges 0:40:17.160 --> 0:40:21.760 that's another discussion. But if almost anyone tiny to large 0:40:22.080 --> 0:40:25.239 can handle a basic Air fifteen, and it is the 0:40:25.280 --> 0:40:28.200 gun that is most focused on for gun control, ironically 0:40:28.400 --> 0:40:30.640 places like California where they take away things that make 0:40:30.719 --> 0:40:33.920 it more functional like no testol grip or reduce your 0:40:33.920 --> 0:40:37.880 magazine capacity because they're trying to diminish the functionality of 0:40:37.920 --> 0:40:40.080 the gun. But the reality is the reason they're doing 0:40:40.080 --> 0:40:41.560 that is because that is the gun that is most 0:40:41.560 --> 0:40:44.080 functional for most people, and it is therefore the one 0:40:44.080 --> 0:40:47.520 that almost anyone can handle pretty well with the smallest 0:40:47.560 --> 0:40:48.280 amount of training. 0:40:48.480 --> 0:40:48.719 Yeah. 0:40:49.040 --> 0:40:51.799 Yes, And I think there's a good point there in 0:40:52.280 --> 0:40:55.239 if I were coaching someone who is buying an AR 0:40:55.400 --> 0:40:58.600 that has no you know, does not have iron sights 0:40:58.640 --> 0:41:01.960 on it at all, you are it is much easier 0:41:02.000 --> 0:41:03.839 to learn how to sit in and use a red 0:41:03.880 --> 0:41:07.000 dot on an AR than learning how to adjust the 0:41:07.040 --> 0:41:10.520 site the iron sights on an AR fifteen. Right, Like, 0:41:10.680 --> 0:41:12.640 not that you can't learn that that you should again, 0:41:12.680 --> 0:41:14.400 you have to, you can watch a video on it, 0:41:14.440 --> 0:41:17.520 but it's much more intuitive to set up a red 0:41:17.600 --> 0:41:18.600 dot in that way. 0:41:18.800 --> 0:41:20.719 This is actually where I would flip flop. If you're 0:41:20.719 --> 0:41:23.120 with the pistol, don't concern yourself too much with the 0:41:23.160 --> 0:41:25.760 red dot. If you're going with an air fifteen, concern 0:41:25.800 --> 0:41:28.400 yourself with the lease. Get a red dot to the opposite. 0:41:28.600 --> 0:41:31.279 Yeah. Yeah, unless you were like in the Marines or 0:41:31.320 --> 0:41:34.600 something and you know how to dial in your irons right, 0:41:35.360 --> 0:41:37.239 and even then you're gonna have a better time with 0:41:37.320 --> 0:41:37.839 a red dot. 0:41:37.920 --> 0:41:40.279 Yeah, yeah, totally and once and a red dot is 0:41:40.360 --> 0:41:42.440 very intuitive. So one of the things that people are 0:41:42.440 --> 0:41:43.960 from the with firearms, but when you bring up a 0:41:43.960 --> 0:41:46.840 long arm, there's multiple points of contact to the person 0:41:46.880 --> 0:41:48.880 shooting the gun. When you bring up a pistol, you 0:41:48.920 --> 0:41:50.799 probably have two hands on it and you're pushing your 0:41:50.880 --> 0:41:53.759 arms out almost like you're like making a triangle. When 0:41:53.760 --> 0:41:55.640 you're using a long arm like an air fifteen, there's 0:41:55.640 --> 0:41:58.120 a butt stock on your shoulder, your cheek is on 0:41:58.360 --> 0:42:00.680 the actual comb which is the bay of the stock. 0:42:01.000 --> 0:42:03.120 Your other hand your support hand, it's holding the gun 0:42:03.200 --> 0:42:04.920 up on the front of it. You have a minimum 0:42:04.960 --> 0:42:07.440 of three points of contact with a red dot. That 0:42:07.480 --> 0:42:10.520 makes it very stable and easy to get reliable hits. 0:42:10.520 --> 0:42:12.520 And the red dot means you can keep both eyes open, 0:42:12.840 --> 0:42:15.360 don't need to worry about the idiosyncrasies of focusing on 0:42:15.400 --> 0:42:18.399 a front site. Essentially, if it's zero meaning the dot 0:42:18.480 --> 0:42:20.680 is regulated to where the gun hits. And you put 0:42:20.719 --> 0:42:22.840 the dot on the thing and press the trigger without 0:42:22.840 --> 0:42:25.360 doing something like jerking the gun, you'll hit the target. 0:42:25.640 --> 0:42:27.520 And so that's why that matters. 0:42:28.160 --> 0:42:32.160 Yeah, so what sort of bud each people be looking at, 0:42:32.239 --> 0:42:36.360 and like, would you be comfortable recommending, like even brands 0:42:36.400 --> 0:42:37.279 that they should look at. 0:42:38.440 --> 0:42:39.840 It all comes down the cost when it comes to 0:42:39.920 --> 0:42:41.839 our fifteen. So you can spend as much money as 0:42:41.880 --> 0:42:44.640 you want. The reality is I have a video on 0:42:44.640 --> 0:42:47.000 the channel. Never mind if you like or dis like 0:42:47.040 --> 0:42:49.839 the company. They're one of the ones that really push 0:42:49.920 --> 0:42:52.640 the lower cost products out there. PSA it stands for 0:42:52.640 --> 0:42:54.960 Palm Models, pal Metal State Armory. You can go there 0:42:55.000 --> 0:42:57.200 and get your branded trump lower but at the same time, 0:42:57.280 --> 0:42:59.640 you can get an AR fifteen for like four hundred bucks. 0:43:00.080 --> 0:43:03.120 Yeah, and like in the gun space, you're not going 0:43:03.200 --> 0:43:05.920 to find someone to buy who is spotless and selling 0:43:06.000 --> 0:43:07.760 guns in large numbers cheaply. 0:43:07.920 --> 0:43:12.160 Yeah, like that's not so like so so for foreigner 0:43:12.200 --> 0:43:15.279 bucks are around there. From PSA, you can get a 0:43:15.360 --> 0:43:18.560 traditional what's called an M four. It's essentially a sixteen 0:43:18.560 --> 0:43:21.279 inch car beam. It won't have any sighting system on it, 0:43:21.320 --> 0:43:24.680 so expect to throw another two hundred bucks ish onto 0:43:24.680 --> 0:43:27.440 a reasonable red dot site on that. So for around 0:43:27.480 --> 0:43:29.600 the six hundred dollars range, you're gonna get a gun 0:43:29.640 --> 0:43:33.560 that's going to weigh seven pounds, but it's gonna have 0:43:33.640 --> 0:43:36.000 low recoil and you're going to have something that's for 0:43:36.040 --> 0:43:38.600 the most part, reasonably reliable. Is it the best of 0:43:38.600 --> 0:43:41.080 the company. Is the best of the best. No, but 0:43:41.160 --> 0:43:44.200 it's reasonably lightweight. It is well manufactured. I've done videos 0:43:44.239 --> 0:43:47.520 about them on my channel. They've worked just fine, and 0:43:47.600 --> 0:43:50.759 so foreigner ish for the gun of the two hundred, 0:43:50.840 --> 0:43:53.759 for the sighting system, couple mags, you could get out 0:43:53.760 --> 0:43:58.440 of the door for under seven hundred dollars with everything 0:43:58.480 --> 0:44:01.320 probably under that, maybe under six hundred even if you're careful. 0:44:01.680 --> 0:44:03.319 Oh but let me plug one thing. If you've got 0:44:03.360 --> 0:44:05.560 lots and lots more money, double that. You you know what 0:44:05.600 --> 0:44:07.879 would Staughtter do? Carbon which I designed. It'll be half 0:44:07.920 --> 0:44:11.400 the way and super reliable from Katie Arms. But I 0:44:11.440 --> 0:44:13.359 love mind doesn't bring any money to me. I'm just saying. 0:44:13.400 --> 0:44:16.080 The point I'm making here is you can get something 0:44:16.120 --> 0:44:17.960 good enough, and if you've got more money, there is 0:44:18.000 --> 0:44:21.279 better out there that are lighter, more reliable guns, but 0:44:21.320 --> 0:44:23.120 you don't need to. As my point, I'm not trying 0:44:23.160 --> 0:44:24.000 to sell anything here. 0:44:24.120 --> 0:44:26.480 Yeah, they are one of the few manufacturers who offer 0:44:26.640 --> 0:44:29.520 like a California compliance solution at checkout, which is nice 0:44:29.520 --> 0:44:30.600 for California people. 0:44:31.200 --> 0:44:34.040 Yes, yes, so that can be a really beneficial thing 0:44:34.080 --> 0:44:36.360 to you in terms of you know, not having it 0:44:36.440 --> 0:44:38.800 be something that you're scared about. 0:44:39.080 --> 0:44:43.680 California Compliant will probably mean no flash hider, no pistol grim, 0:44:43.719 --> 0:44:45.280 and a fixed magazine at least. 0:44:45.080 --> 0:44:47.279 At point in time you can have you can have 0:44:47.480 --> 0:44:50.520 the removable magazine if you don't have the flash heighted 0:44:50.600 --> 0:44:52.160 pistol grip and the collapsing stock. 0:44:52.400 --> 0:44:54.719 So okay, all right, Well, if you can buy it 0:44:54.760 --> 0:44:57.879 from them ready to go, there's I know, there's also 0:44:57.960 --> 0:45:01.759 magazine capacity requirements in so maybe you have to buy 0:45:01.800 --> 0:45:03.520 like a couple ten round bags or something like that. 0:45:03.600 --> 0:45:03.759 Yeah. 0:45:03.840 --> 0:45:06.640 Yeah, obviously thirty round bags are better than ten round bags, 0:45:06.680 --> 0:45:09.640 and for mostly if you live in a place like California, 0:45:09.719 --> 0:45:11.640 do not worry too much about that. If you get 0:45:11.680 --> 0:45:14.319 a little proficiency on that, a couple ten round bags 0:45:14.360 --> 0:45:14.879 will do a lot. 0:45:15.239 --> 0:45:18.440 And to be honest, in self defense, shootings. The odds 0:45:18.440 --> 0:45:21.120 are load that you will be firing that many rounds 0:45:21.200 --> 0:45:25.680 right now. If you're in a self defense shooting where 0:45:25.680 --> 0:45:28.160 you do need more bullets than that, there's really nothing 0:45:28.200 --> 0:45:31.080 that can replace having those bullets you know available. 0:45:31.200 --> 0:45:33.920 But yeah, don't get reptraniacs on it, like there's no 0:45:34.000 --> 0:45:35.240 something you can change. 0:45:35.920 --> 0:45:37.760 The fact that you only have a ten round magazine 0:45:37.800 --> 0:45:39.760 does not mean that you can't become reficient. 0:45:40.000 --> 0:45:41.320 Yeah, And I don't want anyone here to think that 0:45:41.360 --> 0:45:42.719 I'm saying you shouldn't. You should be able to get 0:45:42.719 --> 0:45:44.400 a six ye round bag. You're one far as I'm concerned. 0:45:44.560 --> 0:45:48.760 Places like California have these restrictions, have them statistically speaking, 0:45:48.800 --> 0:45:51.240 and I don't know if this data has changed. Most 0:45:51.360 --> 0:45:55.080 self defense shootings happen within three yards, three seconds, three 0:45:55.080 --> 0:45:55.680 shots fired. 0:45:55.760 --> 0:45:56.919 Yeah, yep, yeah, yep. 0:45:57.360 --> 0:45:59.200 I think it's really good to remember that when you 0:45:59.200 --> 0:46:01.239 are seeing some ube they tell you need to be 0:46:01.239 --> 0:46:04.920 able to have thirty rounds in five five hundred yards. 0:46:05.000 --> 0:46:08.680 I don't go downtown without my backpack and my SBR 0:46:08.719 --> 0:46:12.600 and three hundred black at with six thirty round magazine successible. 0:46:13.640 --> 0:46:16.640 I was in conceptive Man Scat of cities. Yeah. Yeah, 0:46:16.640 --> 0:46:19.280 I carry an RPG and I take the little safety 0:46:19.280 --> 0:46:21.080 camp off because I like to live that way. 0:46:21.280 --> 0:46:25.560 Yeah yeah, yeah, dangerously down. My clothing is made out 0:46:25.600 --> 0:46:28.520 of debt cord. I just wear nothing but debt cord 0:46:28.560 --> 0:46:30.600 wherever I go. We're all going down. 0:46:30.920 --> 0:46:32.799 At least you take some people with you. It's all 0:46:32.840 --> 0:46:37.080 city blocks though. Yeah, self defense mataden. But let me 0:46:37.120 --> 0:46:38.719 say one more thing about long arms. Another thing you'll 0:46:38.760 --> 0:46:40.600 see from people that are new in the space, depending 0:46:40.640 --> 0:46:43.440 on what they've seen or what they've consumed. This is 0:46:43.440 --> 0:46:45.759 going to get some hate. Don't bother with aks, Yeah, 0:46:45.920 --> 0:46:48.560 just don't. This is the United States of America, and 0:46:48.640 --> 0:46:50.719 this country believes in the air fifteen. And what that 0:46:50.760 --> 0:46:53.240 boiled down to is they're everywhere. They're prolific. The parts 0:46:53.239 --> 0:46:56.480 are here, yeah, the repairs here, they're well manufactured. When 0:46:56.480 --> 0:46:58.680 you stray from that course to something like an AK, 0:46:59.360 --> 0:47:02.040 your first while, you're losing eronomics. But that's a different problem. 0:47:02.200 --> 0:47:06.839 You're dealing with an unknown quantity of problems. You get 0:47:06.840 --> 0:47:10.120 an air fifteen. That's what's in this country. It's what's prolific. Yeah, 0:47:10.120 --> 0:47:13.959 if you were in if you were in somewhere war 0:47:14.000 --> 0:47:16.399 torn Africa, get your AK here. 0:47:16.640 --> 0:47:19.839 I'll say this about the war torn AK countries because 0:47:19.840 --> 0:47:22.920 I've been in three countries where the primary arm is 0:47:23.000 --> 0:47:27.040 an AK M right, like a kind of AK right Siria, Ukraine, 0:47:27.080 --> 0:47:30.400 in Iraq. In all three of those countries, every soldier 0:47:30.440 --> 0:47:33.480 who knew their stuff, who was proficient and had the option, 0:47:33.960 --> 0:47:36.760 chosen AR platform. If they could get one hundred percent 0:47:36.760 --> 0:47:39.160 of the time, they're just better fire arms. 0:47:39.239 --> 0:47:41.640 Yeah, that's been my experience as well. They look cool, 0:47:41.680 --> 0:47:44.320 but but don't go Yeah, just get an air forea. 0:47:44.719 --> 0:47:47.399 Yeah, Like, I love my ak's, but they're they're range 0:47:47.480 --> 0:47:48.680 fut toys, right like. 0:47:49.000 --> 0:47:49.640 Yeah. 0:47:49.719 --> 0:47:50.960 So let's talk about. 0:47:51.480 --> 0:47:54.560 Accessorizing, which again is much easier with ais and aks. Like, 0:47:55.000 --> 0:47:57.360 what other stuff you need to build into a budget. 0:47:57.400 --> 0:48:00.200 If you've not show up before, you might not know 0:48:00.280 --> 0:48:04.120 that you need a pro I pro sling, maybe ulster. 0:48:04.520 --> 0:48:06.880 Well, we'll start with the firearms accessories, right, So with 0:48:06.960 --> 0:48:09.600 the pistol. First of all, we talked about safe storage. 0:48:09.680 --> 0:48:12.799 That's already off the table. With the pistol, if you 0:48:12.840 --> 0:48:15.480 plan to carry it, you need a good reliable holster 0:48:15.920 --> 0:48:17.440 and a good reliable gun belt. 0:48:17.520 --> 0:48:19.040 Good lord, yes. 0:48:19.239 --> 0:48:21.200 Depending on how you want to carry it. That'll determine 0:48:21.200 --> 0:48:23.560 the kind of holster. If you want an outside the waistband, 0:48:23.560 --> 0:48:25.960 which means it sits outside your belt, that's one thing. 0:48:25.960 --> 0:48:28.799 If you're carrying it concealed, you're probably gonna want an 0:48:28.840 --> 0:48:32.560 inside the waistband, which goes between your belt and your body. 0:48:32.760 --> 0:48:34.880 Again under the level of training there, because when you're 0:48:34.960 --> 0:48:37.279 drawing from that, things can go wrong. Sure, and that's 0:48:37.320 --> 0:48:39.200 where people tend to shoot themselves. So that's what you 0:48:39.239 --> 0:48:41.720 needed to be very cautious of. Yeah, but with a pistol, 0:48:41.760 --> 0:48:45.200 typically you're going to want probably an extra magazine or two. 0:48:45.280 --> 0:48:47.040 It may come with one, depending on what you bought. 0:48:47.480 --> 0:48:49.560 A quality gun belt and a quality holster. 0:48:50.600 --> 0:48:54.360 Now what about a forty four derringer and an ankle 0:48:54.400 --> 0:48:56.759 holster on each angle? Right like that seems like the 0:48:56.840 --> 0:48:59.360 ideal solution. Anytime you're in danger. You just got a 0:48:59.400 --> 0:49:01.680 squat right down there, you know. Yeah, yeah, yeah, no, 0:49:01.880 --> 0:49:05.520 get real low, especially when you've. 0:49:05.360 --> 0:49:09.280 Been pushed pushed onto your back by by the mob 0:49:09.680 --> 0:49:11.480 and you're there in that scene and you're pulling it 0:49:11.520 --> 0:49:12.400 out of your ankle holster. 0:49:12.480 --> 0:49:16.400 Yeah right, no, no, no, just just get a wire 0:49:16.480 --> 0:49:18.520 around the trigger and attach it to your toes so 0:49:18.520 --> 0:49:21.319 that you can squeeze your toes and fire the What. 0:49:21.280 --> 0:49:25.440 You need is the belt buckle revolver from North American US. Yeah, 0:49:25.480 --> 0:49:28.759 that is great. Yeah, no, from that freaking movie, the 0:49:28.880 --> 0:49:30.280 vampire movie Quinn Tarantino. 0:49:30.840 --> 0:49:33.520 Oh geez, so that's still done. 0:49:33.680 --> 0:49:38.439 God yeah, no, before the belt, a magazine or two 0:49:38.440 --> 0:49:41.120 extra it might come with them, and a quality holster. Now, 0:49:41.120 --> 0:49:43.640 the obvious question is what's a quality holster And the 0:49:43.719 --> 0:49:45.719 obvious answer is there's too many out there to be 0:49:45.719 --> 0:49:48.480 able to offer you that answer right now. Probably something 0:49:48.520 --> 0:49:50.920 polymer if it's going to be outside the waistband. And 0:49:50.920 --> 0:49:53.480 this will be another one that'll get people fired up. Generally, 0:49:53.480 --> 0:49:56.320 avoid the Surpa holsters unless you really want to have 0:49:56.360 --> 0:49:58.080 a lot of training. Surple holsters are one that have 0:49:58.120 --> 0:50:00.480 a little button on the side that the gun to 0:50:00.520 --> 0:50:02.480 come out if you're not brained well or have the 0:50:02.480 --> 0:50:04.640 wrong gun in it. It also allows you to accidentally shoot 0:50:04.640 --> 0:50:05.759 yourself quite easily as well. 0:50:05.840 --> 0:50:09.080 Yeah, best avoided. That's that's a very good point. And 0:50:09.120 --> 0:50:12.320 also one thing I will note is there's a danger 0:50:12.320 --> 0:50:14.160 that a lot of people aren't aware of with leather, 0:50:14.239 --> 0:50:16.319 which is that leather holsters. Now, there are some leather 0:50:16.320 --> 0:50:19.360 holsters that have like a trigger area reinforced with kaidex, 0:50:19.400 --> 0:50:22.960 which is, you know, a rigid, plasticky substance. But if 0:50:22.960 --> 0:50:26.080 it's not in time, those can start to like get 0:50:26.200 --> 0:50:29.040 weaker and warn in such a way that it can 0:50:29.080 --> 0:50:32.160 also cause it to press the trigger when you holster it. Like, 0:50:32.200 --> 0:50:35.000 that's a thing that has happened to people. So I 0:50:35.360 --> 0:50:39.040 generally think you want whatever you want the trigger guard 0:50:39.120 --> 0:50:42.200 to be rigid and not something that's going to like 0:50:43.239 --> 0:50:46.200 warp and be malleable around the trigger, right, Like the 0:50:46.239 --> 0:50:48.399 whole point is that it stops the trigger from fire. 0:50:48.560 --> 0:50:50.840 Yes, this you want to avoid that. How about with 0:50:51.000 --> 0:50:53.719 the with the long guns, like what are you going 0:50:53.800 --> 0:50:57.360 to need to budget for those? And then other things 0:50:57.440 --> 0:50:59.719 like for shooting Germany that you'll need if you don't 0:50:59.719 --> 0:51:00.200 already have. 0:51:00.719 --> 0:51:02.280 So when it comes to the long arm, we already 0:51:02.280 --> 0:51:04.080 said if you're going to get an Air fifteen, you're 0:51:04.120 --> 0:51:05.759 going to want to stick some sort of red dot 0:51:05.840 --> 0:51:08.799 site on it. The lowest cost ones that are the 0:51:09.200 --> 0:51:14.160 unbelievably bomb proof are a Chinese company called hollow Sun. Hell, yeah, 0:51:14.239 --> 0:51:16.360 I have a hollow Sun from twenty seventeen. That is 0:51:16.760 --> 0:51:19.400 still works just fine. I love my hollow suns. Yea, 0:51:19.600 --> 0:51:22.600 my hollow sun's been bounced down an asphalt road and 0:51:22.640 --> 0:51:23.520 it still works fine. 0:51:23.600 --> 0:51:26.479 So it's the opposite of a fail sun, a hollow sun. 0:51:27.760 --> 0:51:29.480 So you can pick up a red dot hollow sun. 0:51:29.560 --> 0:51:32.480 Those can go and you can get those sometimes sometimes 0:51:32.480 --> 0:51:34.719 that low is like one hundred and fifty bucks. Yeah, 0:51:34.800 --> 0:51:37.680 so you'll need a red dot site. A sling is nice, 0:51:38.080 --> 0:51:41.080 not required, especially if you're going to be using within 0:51:41.600 --> 0:51:43.920 the premises of your property. You probably don't need to 0:51:43.920 --> 0:51:47.880 worry about that. It Also, slings can cause issues like 0:51:47.920 --> 0:51:49.759 get caught on things or things in your house or 0:51:49.800 --> 0:51:52.279 even tangle you up. So that's this training issue. So 0:51:52.440 --> 0:51:56.359 sling is iffy an extra magazine or two. And if 0:51:56.400 --> 0:51:58.480 you're planning on needing to use this for a defensive 0:51:58.520 --> 0:52:01.640 purpose inside of your home or structure or at night, 0:52:01.800 --> 0:52:03.359 it's not the worst thing in the world to throw 0:52:03.400 --> 0:52:04.080 on a flashlight. 0:52:04.360 --> 0:52:10.480 Yeah, yes, especially if it's like a defensive firearm, like 0:52:10.880 --> 0:52:13.960 it's your home defense gun or a carry gun like 0:52:14.000 --> 0:52:16.640 a flashlight. And also if you're I think it's generally 0:52:16.640 --> 0:52:19.240 a good idea if you're going to carry a carry 0:52:19.280 --> 0:52:22.319 firearm with a flashlight. Have another flashlight that's not on 0:52:22.400 --> 0:52:25.080 a gun, because one thing you should never do is 0:52:25.160 --> 0:52:27.839 use your gun flashlight to look at just random shit 0:52:27.960 --> 0:52:29.719 that you need a flashlight. 0:52:29.880 --> 0:52:31.960 When you come home at night in the dark. You forgot, 0:52:32.000 --> 0:52:37.359 you forgot, you can't find which key is the right Nah, 0:52:37.440 --> 0:52:38.560 don't do that. Don't do that. 0:52:38.760 --> 0:52:43.520 Don't do that. That's a pretty good list of accessories. 0:52:43.760 --> 0:52:45.560 And make sure you have a lad air and eye 0:52:45.600 --> 0:52:46.560 protection as well. 0:52:46.920 --> 0:52:48.960 So that's we're gonna go all the safety side of things. 0:52:48.960 --> 0:52:51.640 You need proper shooting glasses. That means not the glasses 0:52:51.640 --> 0:52:54.120 that you picked up for readers at Walgreen. If they're 0:52:54.120 --> 0:52:56.520 shooting glasses can be as cheap as nine bucks all 0:52:56.560 --> 0:52:57.920 the way up to hundreds of bucks. You can get 0:52:57.920 --> 0:52:59.759 them at the sporting good store. But there does not 0:53:00.200 --> 0:53:02.439 with the kind of plastic to be able to take 0:53:02.920 --> 0:53:06.640 shrapnel or hits from pieces of fragments that are high velocity. 0:53:06.680 --> 0:53:10.600 They're meant for that. So ten dollars shooting glasses. Yes, yes, 0:53:11.360 --> 0:53:12.120 hearing protection. 0:53:12.239 --> 0:53:14.359 Those can be squishy earplugs you put in your ear, 0:53:14.640 --> 0:53:17.120 or they can be over the head mouths. Do not 0:53:17.840 --> 0:53:20.719 ever shoot guns except in the most critical conditions or 0:53:20.760 --> 0:53:24.800 situations without eye protection and hearing protection. Because that's the 0:53:24.880 --> 0:53:27.279 kind of stuff where you lose an eye and every 0:53:27.280 --> 0:53:29.759 time you fire that gun, you're losing hearing every time. 0:53:30.040 --> 0:53:35.160 Yes, yes, and like for the really because obviously most 0:53:35.280 --> 0:53:38.200 like it hurts to shoot a firearm without hearing protection. 0:53:39.040 --> 0:53:41.640 Like you can get away with shooting a gun without 0:53:41.719 --> 0:53:44.480 EyePro every time, but the one time, right, which is 0:53:44.480 --> 0:53:48.320 why I really emphasize eye protection. It's easy to convince 0:53:48.360 --> 0:53:50.879 yourself I don't need to have it on right now, you. 0:53:50.960 --> 0:53:54.399 Do, like, because that's the day that it does the thing. 0:53:54.960 --> 0:53:59.400 Yes, yes, guns do fuck up for lack of a 0:53:59.400 --> 0:54:03.239 better tear and you really don't want your eye unprotected 0:54:03.280 --> 0:54:03.719 if they do. 0:54:03.920 --> 0:54:05.560 Yeah, it's it's a bad. 0:54:05.400 --> 0:54:08.719 Day, absolutely, and so but you on the safety side 0:54:08.719 --> 0:54:11.239 of eye protection and hearing protection, it can be as 0:54:11.280 --> 0:54:13.680 cheap as ten dollars shooting glasses and a bottle of 0:54:14.360 --> 0:54:17.080 squishy earplugs. You're going to be in there for twenty bucks. 0:54:17.160 --> 0:54:19.719 Yeah, yeah, it doesn't have to be expensive. Make sure 0:54:19.760 --> 0:54:21.520 you have it and make sure you use it. 0:54:21.680 --> 0:54:23.160 But you know what, before you do any of this, 0:54:23.239 --> 0:54:24.719 you know what's a smart thing to do. Go take 0:54:24.719 --> 0:54:26.239 a class from Stop the Bleed and learn how to 0:54:26.320 --> 0:54:28.760 use tourniquets and medical gear. Yeah, and have that around 0:54:28.800 --> 0:54:31.160 anyway before you ever buy a gun. Go do that, Yes, 0:54:31.200 --> 0:54:33.279 a mess, that's the most important thing you could do 0:54:33.280 --> 0:54:33.760 for anyone. 0:54:33.960 --> 0:54:37.120 Yeah, Yes, And that, as you said, should be a 0:54:37.200 --> 0:54:40.080 priority before getting the firearm. And if you have the 0:54:40.160 --> 0:54:42.560 money to get and train a gun, you have no 0:54:42.680 --> 0:54:45.759 excuse for not having an individual first Aid kit an 0:54:45.760 --> 0:54:48.279 IFAC and the knowledge of how to use it. 0:54:48.320 --> 0:54:50.600 Ye right, And I think Stop the Bleed classes are 0:54:50.680 --> 0:54:52.360 usually free. You can look it up and Stop the 0:54:52.360 --> 0:54:55.360 Bleed dot com or dot org, google it. Take a 0:54:55.360 --> 0:54:57.279 class that's chasy, how to use a tournique, use how 0:54:57.320 --> 0:54:59.880 to use a bandage. Have an IPAC, as was just mentioned, 0:55:00.120 --> 0:55:02.840 can be a pretty simple kit. And as you said, Robert, 0:55:02.840 --> 0:55:04.440 if you can afford a gun, you can afford that 0:55:04.880 --> 0:55:07.160 and have that with you on the range anytime you're shooting, 0:55:07.160 --> 0:55:10.040 because as you said, guns can fuck up. They usually don't, 0:55:10.160 --> 0:55:12.200 but if they do, you're gonna want that I fact, 0:55:12.280 --> 0:55:14.600 and that I fact, and that training might just help 0:55:14.640 --> 0:55:16.239 your neighbor one day when they get in a car 0:55:16.280 --> 0:55:17.280 accident or whatever. 0:55:17.800 --> 0:55:21.040 I regularly make the decision not to carry my gun 0:55:21.200 --> 0:55:23.359 with me places. Right, you know, I'm gonna go out 0:55:23.360 --> 0:55:24.960 and get drunk tonight. I don't need if I have 0:55:25.000 --> 0:55:27.040 a fire alarm one me when I'm drunk. But you 0:55:27.080 --> 0:55:30.000 know what I always have is the IFAC, right every 0:55:30.080 --> 0:55:33.200 single time. You know, because number one drunk with an 0:55:33.239 --> 0:55:34.040 I FAC, I'm no. 0:55:34.400 --> 0:55:34.640 I might. 0:55:34.760 --> 0:55:39.560 I'm probably less effective, but I'm not going to endanger anyone. 0:55:39.640 --> 0:55:41.040 You're just like, hey, buddy, I think you need a 0:55:41.080 --> 0:55:45.280 PARNA kit and he's like, no, give me here. Google said, 0:55:45.280 --> 0:55:50.520 this goes around the neck. But once again, a softable 0:55:50.680 --> 0:55:53.000 class and an IPAC is more likely to serve you 0:55:53.120 --> 0:55:55.120 or your community more than any gun ever will. 0:55:55.280 --> 0:55:55.480 Yeah. 0:55:55.560 --> 0:55:57.719 Yeah, and that's a great place. I would say that. 0:55:57.760 --> 0:56:00.600 If you are going down this pathway and you're looking 0:56:00.640 --> 0:56:04.160 to join openly leftist gun organizations, there are several, right 0:56:04.239 --> 0:56:06.360 John Brown, grun Club, Socialist RFE Association. 0:56:07.200 --> 0:56:08.800 We've had those people on a show before. 0:56:09.400 --> 0:56:11.719 Be cautious when you're doing that, and keep an eye 0:56:11.719 --> 0:56:15.080 on things because that could be something that might get 0:56:15.120 --> 0:56:18.160 you into trouble in the long run. So it's something 0:56:18.960 --> 0:56:19.680 to be aware of. 0:56:20.320 --> 0:56:22.440 Yeah, it might be good to just put a holder 0:56:22.520 --> 0:56:25.320 on joining a new organization until we're a few months 0:56:25.320 --> 0:56:28.759 into this thing coming up next year. Maybe have an 0:56:28.800 --> 0:56:32.000 idea about what kind of things might be safe and 0:56:32.040 --> 0:56:33.680 what kind of things might be less safe. 0:56:33.680 --> 0:56:36.200 Definitely, no, but none of that stops you from using signal, 0:56:36.239 --> 0:56:39.480 building community and learning how to use a firearm properly. 0:56:39.239 --> 0:56:43.000 Right at meeting people, yes, and like training with them, 0:56:43.160 --> 0:56:47.680 you know, and taking getting training, building proficiency. Absolutely, all 0:56:47.719 --> 0:56:51.200 of that is legal and will remain legal. Just don't 0:56:51.239 --> 0:56:53.879 start if anyone ever talks to you about let's make 0:56:53.880 --> 0:56:57.480 a militia to do that, it's time to leave that conversation, 0:56:57.760 --> 0:56:59.600 right because, among other things, at this point, there's a 0:56:59.600 --> 0:57:00.840 good chance it's the FBI. 0:57:02.400 --> 0:57:06.200 Yeah, if you live in Michigan, do not. Yeah. Yeah, 0:57:06.360 --> 0:57:09.000 this podcast brought to you by co Intel proh. 0:57:10.400 --> 0:57:14.279 Yeah yeah, yeah, that's great. 0:57:14.320 --> 0:57:15.759 But I mean it's a tough challenge. And so the 0:57:15.800 --> 0:57:17.520 other thing you can do is also, once you've got 0:57:17.520 --> 0:57:19.760 your basic proficiency up and you know that you are 0:57:20.120 --> 0:57:22.680 safe in terms of handling things, let me throw this 0:57:22.720 --> 0:57:25.520 out there too. It doesn't have to be any specific one, 0:57:25.560 --> 0:57:27.480 although remember you're going into a space that may not 0:57:27.560 --> 0:57:31.680 be politically your comfortable place. A good place to build 0:57:31.760 --> 0:57:35.000 up skill is to go shoot matches competitions. Yeah, for 0:57:35.040 --> 0:57:38.160 the most part, it's business oriented. You'll see you'll hear 0:57:38.240 --> 0:57:40.600 some stupid comments here or there, depending on what match 0:57:40.640 --> 0:57:42.440 you're at, But the reality is you're not there for that. 0:57:42.680 --> 0:57:44.320 You're there to get better with your gun on a 0:57:44.360 --> 0:57:46.320 course of fire that they put up for you. Pay 0:57:46.360 --> 0:57:47.840 your ten bucks or twenty bucks and learn how to 0:57:47.840 --> 0:57:50.960 shoot better in those conditions. And that's another space to 0:57:51.440 --> 0:57:53.320 once the basic trainings out of the way, don't go 0:57:53.320 --> 0:57:55.760 to match the b training. Use the match to help 0:57:55.840 --> 0:57:58.880 increase your skill after you've gotten training. But those matches 0:57:58.920 --> 0:58:00.840 can be a place to really help you out a lot. 0:58:01.000 --> 0:58:02.400 And there's a lot of them around and those are 0:58:02.440 --> 0:58:03.920 easier to find than almost anything. 0:58:04.200 --> 0:58:06.720 Yep, practice scores where you can lick them up if 0:58:06.720 --> 0:58:07.280 you're into that. 0:58:07.280 --> 0:58:09.760 Kind of thing. Excellent, Thanks very much for joining uskyle. 0:58:09.800 --> 0:58:12.120 Do you want to very briefly plug your YouTube channel 0:58:12.520 --> 0:58:13.760 where can people find you? 0:58:13.800 --> 0:58:13.960 Well? 0:58:14.040 --> 0:58:15.680 Sure, and thank you for having me on the show. 0:58:15.720 --> 0:58:17.800 It's always a treat. I really appreciate it. It's always 0:58:17.800 --> 0:58:19.080 great to be able just to hang out with you 0:58:19.120 --> 0:58:22.919 both do it more often. You can find my work 0:58:22.960 --> 0:58:25.240 It's in Range TV. You can find my website at 0:58:25.560 --> 0:58:30.040 Range dot tv. I'm distributed, decentralized across multiple platforms, a 0:58:30.080 --> 0:58:34.200 predominant one being YouTube. Cover everything from civil rights history, 0:58:34.280 --> 0:58:38.360 human rights to firearms to from old West flintlocks up 0:58:38.400 --> 0:58:40.840 to the most modern machine guns across the channel. Some 0:58:40.880 --> 0:58:43.360 of it is instructional, some of its history. And I've 0:58:43.360 --> 0:58:46.320 got a cool video dropping tomorrow, in fact, well tomorrow 0:58:46.320 --> 0:58:49.240 based on when we're recording this on the Opium Wars 0:58:49.360 --> 0:58:54.720 and how Britain and China's firearms technology discrepancy caused Hong 0:58:54.800 --> 0:58:56.600 Kong to be owned by Britain. That's the kind of 0:58:56.640 --> 0:58:58.640 stuff I do on my channel, So check that out. 0:58:59.040 --> 0:59:01.160 And if you want to find matches that are going 0:59:01.200 --> 0:59:03.680 to be a place that is truly an inclusive space, 0:59:04.040 --> 0:59:06.480 we do run matches called Brutality Matches. You can find 0:59:06.520 --> 0:59:09.480 them at brutalitymatches dot org. They're not monthly, we have 0:59:09.560 --> 0:59:11.560 run a couple of them across the country, but I 0:59:11.560 --> 0:59:13.640 can guarantee you that's the space you will feel comfortable 0:59:13.680 --> 0:59:14.520 because we make. 0:59:14.400 --> 0:59:15.680 It that way. Awesome. 0:59:15.760 --> 0:59:16.680 Yeah, thanks col. 0:59:28.520 --> 0:59:34.200 Last week, two major news networks CNN and CNBC partnered 0:59:34.240 --> 0:59:39.520 with the so called prediction market Calshi, an online political 0:59:39.560 --> 0:59:43.760 betting platform, to use Calshi's real time betting data in 0:59:43.840 --> 0:59:47.880 TV news segments, online news content, and, as Calshi announced 0:59:47.920 --> 0:59:51.960 on X the Everything app quote to integrate prediction markets 0:59:52.080 --> 0:59:57.919 into CNN's global newsroom, with Calshi threatening quote, a new 0:59:58.080 --> 1:00:02.880 era of media is here. This is it could happen here. 1:00:02.920 --> 1:00:08.400 I'm Garrison Davis. Regular CNN viewers may have noticed this 1:00:08.560 --> 1:00:13.439 integration has already been happening for some time. This past 1:00:13.520 --> 1:00:16.880 election cycle, news anchors used betting odds in place of 1:00:17.000 --> 1:00:21.040 an addition to polling data to weigh the likelihood of 1:00:21.320 --> 1:00:26.800 candidate's winning elections. CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enton Nate 1:00:26.920 --> 1:00:29.160 Silver Protege, who used to work for five point thirty 1:00:29.160 --> 1:00:32.560 eight trailblazed the use of political gambling data in news 1:00:32.560 --> 1:00:36.439 stories earlier this year. How she praised Entin by name 1:00:36.600 --> 1:00:39.080 in their announcement of the CNN partnership. 1:00:39.200 --> 1:00:39.680 Quote. 1:00:40.200 --> 1:00:43.680 Enton is an expert at translating what data and polling 1:00:43.720 --> 1:00:46.720 are saying on any given issue, and through this integration, 1:00:46.920 --> 1:00:50.240 he can tap into real time prediction markets data to 1:00:50.320 --> 1:00:55.080 better inform and fact check his reporting unquote. Here's an 1:00:55.080 --> 1:00:59.000 example of this reporting in a CNN segment from October 1:00:59.040 --> 1:00:59.959 twenty twenty five. 1:01:00.440 --> 1:01:02.480 If you go back six months ago, you go back 1:01:02.480 --> 1:01:04.920 to April k Bauld when what were we looking at. Well, 1:01:04.960 --> 1:01:07.800 we were looking at the Democrats with a very clear 1:01:07.840 --> 1:01:10.400 shot of taking control of the US House of Representatives. 1:01:10.440 --> 1:01:12.840 According to the Calshi prediction market odds. We saw them 1:01:12.880 --> 1:01:15.560 in an eighty three percent chance. But those odds have 1:01:15.640 --> 1:01:18.920 gone plummeting down. Now we're talking about just a sixty 1:01:18.920 --> 1:01:22.160 three percent chance, while the gopiece chances up like a 1:01:22.240 --> 1:01:25.120 rocket up like gold, up from seventeen percent to now 1:01:25.160 --> 1:01:26.840 a thirty seven percent chance. 1:01:27.000 --> 1:01:29.040 So we'll look like a pretty clear. 1:01:28.840 --> 1:01:32.400 Demo likely Democratic winning the House come next year has 1:01:32.440 --> 1:01:34.920 become much closer to toss up at this point, although 1:01:34.960 --> 1:01:36.600 still slightly leading Democratic. 1:01:37.080 --> 1:01:40.760 Harry Enton never clarifies how these quote unquote odds are 1:01:40.880 --> 1:01:44.840 formed for what they really are. To a viewer who 1:01:45.000 --> 1:01:47.400 just tuned in or maybe isn't paying that much attention, 1:01:48.000 --> 1:01:52.320 it would be very unclear that these numbers are actually 1:01:52.360 --> 1:01:57.560 from a gambling website. They're just big percentages displayed on 1:01:57.720 --> 1:02:02.040 screen the way you would see pull data or legitimate 1:02:02.120 --> 1:02:06.880 information used in a newsroom. This short section using the 1:02:06.960 --> 1:02:10.480 Calshi prediction market odds was then followed by three minutes 1:02:10.520 --> 1:02:15.440 of analysis using selective mid term voting data from twenty 1:02:15.480 --> 1:02:19.000 seventeen to twenty eighteen to support the movement in these 1:02:19.080 --> 1:02:22.440 gambling odds. The gambling ods themselves were a load bearing 1:02:22.560 --> 1:02:28.040 piece of information in this piece. Calshi's main competitor, another 1:02:28.240 --> 1:02:32.960 so called prediction market called poly Market, partnered with x 1:02:33.000 --> 1:02:36.040 the Everything app and Yahoo Finance earlier this year to 1:02:36.120 --> 1:02:42.240 integrate their prediction data into online news content. Time Magazine 1:02:42.320 --> 1:02:46.520 and Sports Illustrated have also both launched deals with the 1:02:46.520 --> 1:02:52.440 prediction market platform Galactic. So what exactly are these prediction 1:02:52.680 --> 1:02:56.240 markets and how do they function? On poly Market and Calshi, 1:02:56.760 --> 1:02:59.440 users can bet yes or no on the outcome of 1:02:59.440 --> 1:03:03.040 a question relating to world events, which is called a market. 1:03:03.680 --> 1:03:06.920 As more money is wagered on either side, the odds 1:03:07.040 --> 1:03:12.280 of the outcome change. Currently, top questions include various predictions 1:03:12.320 --> 1:03:15.360 for Time Person of the Year, will the US strike 1:03:15.480 --> 1:03:17.680 Venezuela before the end of the year, the release of 1:03:17.680 --> 1:03:20.560 the Epstein files, and who will be the next president. 1:03:21.120 --> 1:03:26.080 Calshi has Trump's chances at six percent. Here's Polymarket CEO 1:03:26.360 --> 1:03:29.360 Shane Copelan explaining on sixty minutes. 1:03:29.680 --> 1:03:31.600 You make money if you're right, you lose money if 1:03:31.600 --> 1:03:34.120 you're wrong, and as a result, it creates this information 1:03:34.480 --> 1:03:35.600 that's reallyseful for people. 1:03:36.360 --> 1:03:39.440 These companies would like you to believe that the ratio 1:03:39.440 --> 1:03:42.280 of people betting yes or no on a certain outcome 1:03:42.360 --> 1:03:48.000 of world events is somehow useful or reliable information for 1:03:48.080 --> 1:03:52.560 the general public to forecast the future, whether that's through 1:03:52.880 --> 1:03:56.479 betting on the likelihood of an upcoming recession, the winner 1:03:56.520 --> 1:03:59.600 of a sports game, which days of the week Israel 1:03:59.640 --> 1:04:03.240 will be Gaza, or what movie will win Best Picture. 1:04:03.880 --> 1:04:07.080 Almost fifty million dollars is currently being wagered over a 1:04:07.120 --> 1:04:12.640 potential Russia Ukraine ceasefire in twenty twenty five. Production markets 1:04:12.720 --> 1:04:18.480 currently have three billion dollars in weekly trading volume. I 1:04:18.480 --> 1:04:22.320 do need to note these companies argue that hedging outcomes 1:04:22.320 --> 1:04:26.760 of world events legally is not gambling, because that would 1:04:26.800 --> 1:04:31.640 be illegal. Payments through unauthorized gambling sites are illegal under 1:04:31.640 --> 1:04:34.680 the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of two thousand and six, 1:04:34.920 --> 1:04:38.959 which suppressed the early prediction markets of the two thousands 1:04:39.320 --> 1:04:43.240 but Kalshi is regulated as a platform for trading financial 1:04:43.280 --> 1:04:47.680 derivatives rather than securities trading or straight up legalized gambling, 1:04:48.240 --> 1:04:51.360 and this determines what entity they have to register with 1:04:51.520 --> 1:04:55.600 and what regulations they're subject to. Calshi launched in twenty 1:04:55.640 --> 1:04:59.040 twenty one with a federal license from the Commodity Futures 1:04:59.080 --> 1:05:03.800 Trading Commission, and after a year's long battle, in October 1:05:03.800 --> 1:05:06.760 twenty twenty four, a federal appeals court ruled in favor 1:05:06.800 --> 1:05:11.760 of Calshi, allowing online prediction market betting on US elections, 1:05:12.360 --> 1:05:16.120 rejecting claims by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that the 1:05:16.160 --> 1:05:20.440 practice was illegal gambling and their concerns that prediction market 1:05:20.440 --> 1:05:26.920 betting could undermine election integrity. Former CFDC chairman Rostam Benham 1:05:27.040 --> 1:05:30.560 misstatement in May of twenty twenty four, reading quote contracts 1:05:30.640 --> 1:05:35.040 involving political events ultimately commoditize and degrade the integrity of 1:05:35.120 --> 1:05:40.400 the uniquely American experience participating in the democratic electoral process. 1:05:40.440 --> 1:05:44.800 Allowing these contracts would push the CFTC, a financial market regulator, 1:05:45.040 --> 1:05:49.800 into a position far beyond its congressional mandate and expertise. 1:05:52.000 --> 1:05:55.120 A week before his dad took office in January twenty 1:05:55.160 --> 1:06:00.720 twenty five, Donald Trump Junior became a strategic advisor at Calshi. 1:06:01.880 --> 1:06:06.280 Polymarket launched in twenty twenty without registering with the Commodity 1:06:06.320 --> 1:06:10.040 Futures Trading Commission, and was fined one point four million 1:06:10.080 --> 1:06:13.320 dollars by the CFTC in twenty twenty two for operating 1:06:13.400 --> 1:06:17.640 as an unregulated exchange and was henceforth prohibited from allowing 1:06:17.680 --> 1:06:22.360 bets from US based users, though the poly Market CEO 1:06:22.520 --> 1:06:23.800 sees it a little different. 1:06:24.400 --> 1:06:26.040 It was at one point four million dollar fine and 1:06:26.040 --> 1:06:28.919 also U was a settlement and you could not have 1:06:29.040 --> 1:06:30.400 customers in the United States. 1:06:30.440 --> 1:06:32.240 Yeah, we had to go in jeoblock trading in the 1:06:32.320 --> 1:06:35.720 US and move certain operations offshore. And it wasn't hey, 1:06:35.720 --> 1:06:38.240 you're banned from trading the US. It's like until you're licensed. 1:06:38.280 --> 1:06:39.320 I mean it was breaking the law. 1:06:39.560 --> 1:06:41.520 I mean people say breaking the law. It's like which 1:06:41.600 --> 1:06:44.040 law you know? So if anything it's. 1:06:43.920 --> 1:06:46.080 Incompatible, it's incompatible with the law. 1:06:46.480 --> 1:06:48.960 Yet, with the regulatory matrix that existed. 1:06:49.240 --> 1:06:52.920 The past two years, Polymarket has found to be facilitating 1:06:53.080 --> 1:06:58.320 illegal gambling and subsequently banned in the countries of Switzerland, France, 1:06:58.520 --> 1:07:04.360 the UK, Poland, Upore, Belgium, Romania and Australia. Most of 1:07:04.400 --> 1:07:09.160 these bans just require geoblocking users, which can be easily 1:07:09.200 --> 1:07:12.640 circumvented through the use of a VPN, and since the 1:07:12.640 --> 1:07:16.760 financial transactions on poly market are all done through cryptocurrency, 1:07:17.320 --> 1:07:20.440 it's not clear that polymarket is taking any steps to 1:07:21.080 --> 1:07:25.320 enforce these bans beyond geo blocking. In the midst of 1:07:25.360 --> 1:07:29.640 facing regulatory hurdles and bands from across the globe, Polymarket 1:07:29.800 --> 1:07:34.439 still exploded in popularity last year, attracting investment from Peter 1:07:34.520 --> 1:07:38.640 Thiel's venture capital firm and hundreds of thousands of new users, 1:07:39.200 --> 1:07:44.360 primarily driven by betting on the US presidential election, speculation 1:07:44.440 --> 1:07:46.600 on whether Biden would drop out of the race and 1:07:46.680 --> 1:07:50.280 who Trump would pick as vice president, all despite the 1:07:50.320 --> 1:07:54.760 platform technically being banned in the United States after the 1:07:54.800 --> 1:07:57.880 first presidential debate in July twenty twenty four, around the 1:07:57.960 --> 1:08:02.280 attempted assassination of Trump and the RNCA, Polymarket gained sixty 1:08:02.400 --> 1:08:07.240 thousand new accounts. The year prior, polymarket averaged two thousand, 1:08:07.480 --> 1:08:11.360 three hundred new accounts per month. August twenty twenty four 1:08:11.480 --> 1:08:17.080 saw seventy thousand new accounts September ninety thousand, October three 1:08:17.160 --> 1:08:23.959 hundred thousand, the month after Trump's second inauguration four hundred thousand. Currently, 1:08:24.240 --> 1:08:29.000 polymarket has over sixty thousand daily active traders and hundreds 1:08:29.000 --> 1:08:32.240 of thousands of monthly traders since October twenty twenty four. 1:08:33.080 --> 1:08:36.519 To give another example of their recent growth, in April 1:08:36.560 --> 1:08:41.840 twenty twenty three, Polymarket's monthly volume was about three million dollars. 1:08:42.320 --> 1:08:47.280 A year later, it was thirty nine million. In November 1:08:47.360 --> 1:08:52.360 twenty twenty four, it was two point five billion. Last month, 1:08:52.520 --> 1:09:07.759 it was three point seven billion. In summer twenty twenty five, 1:09:08.400 --> 1:09:14.320 cash Ptel's, FBI and a CFTC under Trump dropped investigations 1:09:14.479 --> 1:09:18.840 into whether polymarket was illegally allowing US users to place 1:09:18.880 --> 1:09:24.839 bets using VPNs. Shortly thereafter, Donald Trump Junior's venture capital 1:09:24.920 --> 1:09:28.920 firm invested in the platform, and Trump Junior himself joined 1:09:29.000 --> 1:09:34.280 Polymarket's advisory board. Curiously, a few days after Trump Junior 1:09:34.400 --> 1:09:38.439 joined Polymarket, the Commodity Futures Training Commission announced it was 1:09:38.479 --> 1:09:41.599 going to allow polymarket to operate in the United States 1:09:42.000 --> 1:09:46.640 after acquiring another company that held a US license. This 1:09:46.720 --> 1:09:51.560 past October, Trump's own Truth Social announced it was partnering 1:09:51.600 --> 1:09:56.439 with Crypto dot com to launch truth Predict quote, a 1:09:56.479 --> 1:10:01.840 revolutionary prediction market backed by President tru for enhanced decision 1:10:01.880 --> 1:10:07.200 making unquote. When Barry Weiss's sixty Minutes did a puff 1:10:07.240 --> 1:10:11.280 piece on poly Market with its CEO last week, Anderson 1:10:11.360 --> 1:10:16.599 Cooper inquired about the risk of insider trading, poly Markets 1:10:16.680 --> 1:10:20.240 CEO Shane Kaplan seemed to think that a little bit 1:10:20.240 --> 1:10:23.720 of insider trading might be good actually. 1:10:23.800 --> 1:10:29.280 But predicted markets do rely on someone having some inside information. 1:10:29.800 --> 1:10:33.599 Yeah, I think that people going and having an edge 1:10:33.880 --> 1:10:36.519 to the market is a good thing. Obviously, you need 1:10:36.560 --> 1:10:38.639 to curate them, and you need to be really clear 1:10:38.680 --> 1:10:40.519 and stringent on where the line is drawn in like 1:10:40.640 --> 1:10:42.639 sort of ethics, and we spend a lot of time 1:10:42.640 --> 1:10:44.640 on that. But it's sort of an inevitability that this 1:10:44.680 --> 1:10:46.439 will happen and there's a lot of benefits from it 1:10:46.479 --> 1:10:47.839 and people will adapt. 1:10:48.720 --> 1:10:53.160 The CEO did not elaborate on what poly markets practice 1:10:53.200 --> 1:10:57.240 of curating insider trading looks like and where their quote 1:10:57.320 --> 1:11:02.160 unquote stringent line is drawn, because in reality it doesn't 1:11:02.200 --> 1:11:07.080 seem this line exists. They essentially encourage insider trading through 1:11:07.120 --> 1:11:11.479 these vague statements and lack of clear enforcement. From the 1:11:11.479 --> 1:11:14.680 point of view of these platforms, insider trading makes their 1:11:14.720 --> 1:11:19.280 prediction markets more accurate, so it's a net positive, and 1:11:19.360 --> 1:11:21.880 if it fucks over some users on the other side 1:11:21.880 --> 1:11:25.240 of a bet, that's just the cost of business. Last week, 1:11:25.280 --> 1:11:28.880 an alleged insider trader won over a million dollars for 1:11:28.960 --> 1:11:33.000 bets on Google's twenty twenty five year in search rankings, 1:11:33.479 --> 1:11:37.400 listing twenty two out of twenty three in the correct order. 1:11:37.840 --> 1:11:40.240 This user has made a series of early bets related 1:11:40.240 --> 1:11:43.639 to Google the past year, like the exact release date 1:11:43.800 --> 1:11:47.519 of Google's Gemini three point zero, which they won one 1:11:47.640 --> 1:11:53.000 hundred and fifty thousand dollars on. But because this polymarket 1:11:53.120 --> 1:11:58.760 user isn't trading stock, there's no clear regulatory mechanism to 1:11:58.840 --> 1:12:02.599 stop this behavior, and poly market can't reverse these trades 1:12:02.720 --> 1:12:04.960 because they run through the blockchain, not that they would 1:12:05.160 --> 1:12:10.040 even necessarily want to. Professional gambler, political data analyst and 1:12:10.240 --> 1:12:14.280 poly Market advisor Nate Silver was also asked about insider 1:12:14.320 --> 1:12:18.360 trading on the China Talk podcast two months ago. 1:12:18.680 --> 1:12:21.200 Are you worried about insider trading with this. 1:12:22.680 --> 1:12:25.000 With all this political betting, I mean there's an aspect 1:12:25.040 --> 1:12:28.479 of like, look, these are all crypto, uh, you know, 1:12:28.520 --> 1:12:32.519 you get on these markets with crypto and like like 1:12:32.600 --> 1:12:35.360 there were markets like which way is Suzanne Collins going 1:12:35.400 --> 1:12:38.479 to vote? And you know the sort of the like 1:12:39.040 --> 1:12:42.840 you know, like the tail outcomes for like a legislative 1:12:42.840 --> 1:12:46.240 assistant in her office? Are you know you can make 1:12:46.240 --> 1:12:50.120 ten times your salary? And like a minute, right, what's 1:12:50.160 --> 1:12:51.360 your what's your think think on this? 1:12:53.000 --> 1:12:54.160 For sure? 1:12:54.320 --> 1:12:55.840 I mean, look, I think there are a couple of 1:12:55.920 --> 1:12:59.400 qualifications though, Like, first of all, I think people on 1:12:59.439 --> 1:13:01.840 the inside often aren't as well as some formed as 1:13:01.840 --> 1:13:04.719 they think, and or there are. 1:13:04.640 --> 1:13:07.040 Some downsides having an inside view and not an outside 1:13:07.040 --> 1:13:07.240 of you. 1:13:07.240 --> 1:13:09.640 You might drink the kool aid, so to speak, right, 1:13:09.720 --> 1:13:10.960 you might be in a bubble. 1:13:12.680 --> 1:13:14.800 Yeah, look, I mean, I mean there are ones where 1:13:14.880 --> 1:13:17.920 it's like you can literally I mean there's been a 1:13:17.960 --> 1:13:20.479 lots of group chats people talking about like very very 1:13:20.479 --> 1:13:23.439 sketchy trades, uh and one way bets that are being 1:13:23.479 --> 1:13:25.120 made in the stock market of like what's going to 1:13:25.200 --> 1:13:27.320 happen with a trade deal? I mean you can literally 1:13:27.360 --> 1:13:30.479 be the person who decides right and be vetting on 1:13:30.520 --> 1:13:32.519 the side if they're weird. 1:13:33.080 --> 1:13:36.679 If there are incentives to make money in a world 1:13:36.760 --> 1:13:39.080 of eight million people, many of them are very competitive, 1:13:39.080 --> 1:13:40.479 in all of whom and not all of them, most 1:13:40.479 --> 1:13:42.080 of them access to the Internet. Right, people are gonna 1:13:42.080 --> 1:13:43.800 find a way a way to do it. 1:13:43.920 --> 1:13:47.640 Right, let's pause here for a sec. What do you 1:13:47.800 --> 1:13:51.880 think Nick goes on to list as a comparison to 1:13:52.000 --> 1:13:57.000 political insider trading as like an unfortunate but somewhat inevitable 1:13:57.080 --> 1:14:01.240 consequence of our evolving system of fire, as like. 1:14:01.160 --> 1:14:03.000 In the crypto space, we've seen like an increasing number 1:14:03.040 --> 1:14:07.720 of like crypto kidnappings. Right, Well, I mean that's one 1:14:07.720 --> 1:14:10.400 of the consequences if people are worth vast amounts of 1:14:10.479 --> 1:14:13.559 wealth that isn't very secure. It's just it's just gonna 1:14:13.880 --> 1:14:16.439 gonna happen until you up security or have better solutions 1:14:16.520 --> 1:14:17.280 or whatever else. 1:14:17.320 --> 1:14:19.200 And so like, you know, I don't think there's. 1:14:19.040 --> 1:14:23.160 Necessarily anymore or less insider creating on like polymarket than there. 1:14:23.080 --> 1:14:25.439 Might be for in sports betting sides. 1:14:25.479 --> 1:14:27.160 We've seen a lot of sports betting scandals or for 1:14:27.280 --> 1:14:32.599 regular equities. You know, I believe the literature says that 1:14:32.680 --> 1:14:38.000 like members of Congress achieve abnormal returns from their stock portfolios. 1:14:38.000 --> 1:14:39.519 I'd have to do. I'm sure there's some debate about that. 1:14:39.560 --> 1:14:41.040 I have to like to double check that. 1:14:41.240 --> 1:14:41.400 Right. 1:14:41.960 --> 1:14:45.679 It's fine, bros. It's just like cryptocurrency kidnapping. It's fine. 1:14:45.760 --> 1:14:46.240 Actually. 1:14:47.240 --> 1:14:50.679 So Naate goes on to say that prediction market insider 1:14:50.720 --> 1:14:56.240 trading isn't that different from congressmen doing insider trading on 1:14:56.280 --> 1:15:00.400 the stock market, or like rigged sports betting, but he 1:15:00.720 --> 1:15:05.040 really neglects to emphasize that those things are also bad 1:15:05.160 --> 1:15:09.240 and should be aggressively clamped down on. That shouldn't be allowed, 1:15:10.280 --> 1:15:15.479 and prediction markets intentionally skirt regulation. They currently have far 1:15:15.560 --> 1:15:19.519 less legal protections for users against unfair practices, and with 1:15:19.640 --> 1:15:24.040 crypto they can be pretty anonymized, enabling bad actors. And 1:15:24.120 --> 1:15:28.599 now news companies are legitimizing turning everyone's phone into a 1:15:28.680 --> 1:15:33.760 corrupt casino for world events, whether that's Israel starving Palestine 1:15:34.120 --> 1:15:37.200 or how many tweets Elon Musk is going to publish 1:15:37.240 --> 1:15:41.919 this week. The day before CAWSHI announced their partnership agreement 1:15:42.040 --> 1:15:46.840 with CNN and NCNBC, CBS aired a sixty minutes puff 1:15:46.880 --> 1:15:50.280 piece on polymarket, anchored by Anderson Cooper. 1:15:50.960 --> 1:15:52.080 When we met with Copeland. 1:15:52.160 --> 1:15:55.120 Last month, more than three point six million dollars had 1:15:55.160 --> 1:15:58.559 been wagered on whether or not Venezuela's president, Nicholas Muduro 1:15:58.920 --> 1:15:59.719 would be out. 1:15:59.520 --> 1:16:01.040 Of power by the end of the year. 1:16:01.720 --> 1:16:05.080 Polymarket users didn't think, so they gave it only a 1:16:05.120 --> 1:16:08.840 twenty three percent chance. And if you buy no on that, 1:16:09.320 --> 1:16:12.720 and you're buying it at seventy eight cents and at 1:16:12.760 --> 1:16:15.000 the end of the year he's still in power, yeah, 1:16:15.120 --> 1:16:17.120 you get a dollar per share, so you've made a 1:16:17.120 --> 1:16:19.800 profit of twenty two to share. I can see why 1:16:19.800 --> 1:16:22.200 this would be I mean, I don't want to use 1:16:22.200 --> 1:16:24.720 a term addictive, but it would be compelling. 1:16:25.000 --> 1:16:26.880 I mean maybe it is a tick fire. No, well, 1:16:27.000 --> 1:16:27.719 certainly compelling. 1:16:27.800 --> 1:16:28.559 This is how I see it. 1:16:28.840 --> 1:16:32.640 If you are into geopolitics, this creates an incentive for 1:16:32.720 --> 1:16:35.240 you to dig in to what's going on in Venezuela 1:16:35.400 --> 1:16:36.559 and try and get an edge. 1:16:37.120 --> 1:16:41.280 Anderson Cooper, who both works for the newly Calshi partnered 1:16:41.400 --> 1:16:46.480 CNN as well as CBS's Sixty Minutes, is so hesitant 1:16:47.000 --> 1:16:52.920 to call this clearly addictive practice addictive, quote unquote compelling. 1:16:53.640 --> 1:16:58.360 Here's how Polymarket CEO Shane Copelan explained the platform earlier 1:16:58.479 --> 1:16:59.240 in this piece. 1:17:00.080 --> 1:17:04.240 It's a site where you can basically bet on current events, 1:17:04.600 --> 1:17:06.880 some sort of question about the future, like an election, 1:17:07.560 --> 1:17:09.719 and as a result, when a ton of people are betting, 1:17:10.080 --> 1:17:13.240 you get the betting odds, which basically tell you how 1:17:13.439 --> 1:17:14.960 likely each outcome is. 1:17:14.920 --> 1:17:16.400 And how accurate is it. 1:17:16.400 --> 1:17:16.960 It's the most. 1:17:16.800 --> 1:17:20.000 Accurate thing we have as mankind right now, until someone 1:17:20.000 --> 1:17:22.679 else creates some sort of super crystal ball. 1:17:23.360 --> 1:17:28.000 Anderson Cooper responds with narration that the CEO quote may 1:17:28.040 --> 1:17:33.320 be prone to hyperbole, but he's definitely onto something unquote. 1:17:33.920 --> 1:17:37.920 In explaining how polymarket users attempt to seek truth and 1:17:38.160 --> 1:17:40.880 gain an edge, Copeland told the story of how in 1:17:40.960 --> 1:17:44.880 twenty twenty four, an anonymous French user made over eighty 1:17:45.000 --> 1:17:48.519 million dollars on Polymarket by betting on Trump winning the 1:17:48.560 --> 1:17:52.519 presidential election, and to bolster his bets, he contracted you 1:17:52.640 --> 1:17:55.400 gov to conduct private polls in swing states. 1:17:55.640 --> 1:17:57.920 People thought he'd just liked Trump, and he had actually 1:17:57.960 --> 1:18:01.479 commissioned a ton of private polls something called neighbor polling, 1:18:01.680 --> 1:18:04.560 which is you ask people who they think their neighbors. 1:18:04.120 --> 1:18:05.480 Are likely to vote for. 1:18:05.479 --> 1:18:08.600 For scenarios for an election where there's a stigma to 1:18:08.600 --> 1:18:10.599 saying you're going to vote for somebody, and people feel 1:18:10.600 --> 1:18:12.840 some sort of social awkwardness. And what he noticed was 1:18:12.880 --> 1:18:15.640 there was huge discrepancy in the neighbor polling versus the 1:18:15.680 --> 1:18:19.320 normal polling, and the neighbor polling favored Trump enormously. 1:18:19.400 --> 1:18:20.640 He thought Trump was undervalued. 1:18:21.240 --> 1:18:23.320 If this guy was not able to make eighty million, 1:18:23.360 --> 1:18:25.439 but rather able to make eighty thousand dollars, he would 1:18:25.439 --> 1:18:28.280 have never gone through the hassle. But when you get 1:18:28.320 --> 1:18:30.720 markets that are big enough, you create this incentive for 1:18:30.800 --> 1:18:33.160 people to go above and beyond to try and find truth. 1:18:33.920 --> 1:18:36.960 What the CEO is arguing here is that the sheer 1:18:37.080 --> 1:18:41.400 scale of money being wagered creates incentive to quote unquote 1:18:41.600 --> 1:18:46.320 find truths. In media discussions of prediction markets, there's this 1:18:46.520 --> 1:18:51.760 specter of objectivity around the gambled odds, which obviously the 1:18:51.800 --> 1:18:55.040 CEO of poly Market has a personal incentive to encourage. 1:18:55.439 --> 1:19:01.160 But Anderson Cooper here doesn't challenge this notion of t truth. 1:19:01.800 --> 1:19:05.920 Even though Donald Trump was way ahead in prediction market 1:19:05.920 --> 1:19:09.840 odds back during the twenty twenty election, which had his 1:19:10.040 --> 1:19:13.479 chances of winning that election far higher than what pure 1:19:13.560 --> 1:19:18.040 polling models showed. Calshi claims that prediction markets can help 1:19:18.080 --> 1:19:23.479 journalists quote unquote fact check, but doesn't explain how fact 1:19:23.840 --> 1:19:28.360 can be determined from speculative gambling markets. Where is the 1:19:28.520 --> 1:19:33.120 fact in gambling? Well, we will find out after these 1:19:33.200 --> 1:19:49.280 ads to quote from polymarket advisor Nate Silver's blog The 1:19:49.320 --> 1:19:53.200 Silver Bulletin quote, It's basically good when people are more 1:19:53.240 --> 1:19:57.600 exposed to probabilities and they become more normalized. But of 1:19:57.640 --> 1:20:02.200 course I also analyze polls and build probabilistic models myself. 1:20:02.760 --> 1:20:06.599 In that capacity, I strongly disagree with the notion that 1:20:06.680 --> 1:20:10.360 prediction markets can serve as a good substitute for polls. 1:20:10.840 --> 1:20:13.719 These sorts of claims are sometimes advanced by the prediction 1:20:13.880 --> 1:20:18.880 market companies themselves, including Polymarket. To be fair, one minor 1:20:18.960 --> 1:20:23.640 pet peeve is that both reporters and readers often confuse 1:20:24.000 --> 1:20:29.439 probabilities for poll results. Quote, as Nate goes on to explain, 1:20:29.960 --> 1:20:32.840 if Trump is up fifty five to forty five over 1:20:32.920 --> 1:20:37.120 Kamala Harris on a prediction market, that's not saying that 1:20:37.160 --> 1:20:41.200 Trump is expected to win by ten points. It means 1:20:41.240 --> 1:20:45.559 that ten percent more users on the website favor Trump winning, 1:20:45.920 --> 1:20:49.560 which is pretty close to a toss up. This confusion 1:20:49.680 --> 1:20:53.080 is a huge problem which is bolstered in both how 1:20:53.120 --> 1:20:57.720 prediction market companies market their platform, but also how journalists 1:20:57.880 --> 1:21:01.360 use gambling data in news store. If you see a 1:21:01.520 --> 1:21:05.120 social media post, an advertisement, or a random news segment 1:21:05.240 --> 1:21:09.800 showing percentages tied to pictures of two politicians in a 1:21:09.920 --> 1:21:13.040 race without context, those betting numbers could be interpreted in 1:21:13.080 --> 1:21:16.880 a number of ways and influenced someone's perception of an 1:21:16.880 --> 1:21:20.280 election and maybe even their choice on who to vote for, 1:21:20.720 --> 1:21:24.160 or even whether to vote at all. In an October speech, 1:21:24.439 --> 1:21:29.439 Zora Mumdani reference to Calshi billboards predicting a Cuomo victory 1:21:29.520 --> 1:21:30.960 in the Democratic primary. 1:21:31.600 --> 1:21:34.000 When I walked the length of Manhattan just a few 1:21:34.080 --> 1:21:39.240 days before the election, hundreds of New Yorkers marched alongside me. 1:21:42.160 --> 1:21:45.320 And when we strolled into Times Square under a billboard 1:21:45.320 --> 1:21:48.960 with betting odds that showed Cuomo's chances of winning at 1:21:49.000 --> 1:21:52.560 nearly eighty percent, we knew that the so called experts 1:21:52.600 --> 1:21:59.320 were set to get it wrong yet again. Andrew Cuomo, 1:22:00.000 --> 1:22:04.080 it was supposed to be inevitable. When you see the 1:22:04.160 --> 1:22:07.360 Calcy odds that have our chances of victory in the nineties, 1:22:08.520 --> 1:22:12.040 know this. You are reading the same things that Andrew 1:22:12.120 --> 1:22:15.639 Cuomo read when he went to sleep each night in June, 1:22:17.040 --> 1:22:22.400 believing that his victory was promised. We cannot allow complacency 1:22:22.760 --> 1:22:24.400 to infiltrate this movement. 1:22:26.560 --> 1:22:31.000 Calci excitedly shared the latter half of that clip, proclaiming 1:22:31.560 --> 1:22:37.400 breaking zoron Mamdani references his Calci odds on stage, Calshi 1:22:37.600 --> 1:22:43.479 is mainstream quote despite this clip demonstrating how prediction markets 1:22:43.840 --> 1:22:49.000 often suffer from inaccurate bias. Last week, Discount Steve Kornaki, 1:22:49.400 --> 1:22:52.360 former five point thirty eight analyst and now CNN's data expert, 1:22:52.439 --> 1:22:57.400 Harry Enton shared this segment about the Tennessee District seven 1:22:57.720 --> 1:23:00.840 special election on X the Everything app with the caption 1:23:01.600 --> 1:23:04.760 odds are Dems will come within ten points of a win, 1:23:05.200 --> 1:23:06.800 if not outright win. 1:23:07.360 --> 1:23:08.920 I would say, if you had to look at the 1:23:08.920 --> 1:23:12.719 congressional map any district that Donald Trump won by twenty 1:23:12.720 --> 1:23:15.240 two points, you would say, you know, you've got like 1:23:15.439 --> 1:23:17.760 nearly a one hundred percent chance of winning if you're 1:23:17.800 --> 1:23:18.760 running for Congress there. 1:23:18.760 --> 1:23:20.320 But what are the prediction markets saying right now? 1:23:20.320 --> 1:23:21.920 You know, what are we talking about in terms of 1:23:21.920 --> 1:23:24.639 the prediction market us look the Democrat has a fifteen 1:23:24.680 --> 1:23:27.240 percent chance of winning in that race. Okay, a fifteen 1:23:27.280 --> 1:23:30.000 percent chance, which ain't nothing in a district that Donald 1:23:30.040 --> 1:23:33.400 Trump won by twenty two points. But here I think 1:23:33.439 --> 1:23:35.120 is the key nugget on this side of the of 1:23:35.160 --> 1:23:37.519 the ledger, and that is a GOP win by under 1:23:37.520 --> 1:23:40.479 ten points. There's a sixty eight percent chance of that. 1:23:40.840 --> 1:23:43.720 So there is a more than two thirds chance that 1:23:43.760 --> 1:23:47.680 the Republican candidate, Yes, they win, but they win by 1:23:47.680 --> 1:23:51.320 a significantly lower margin than Donald Trump. We're talking about 1:23:51.360 --> 1:23:55.679 double digits, smaller. We're talking about a huge, huge shift 1:23:55.720 --> 1:23:57.479 to the left. We're talking about when you add these 1:23:57.520 --> 1:24:00.519 two together, we're talking about a more than eighty percent 1:24:00.600 --> 1:24:03.640 chance that there is a clear double digit shift to 1:24:03.680 --> 1:24:06.120 the left, and a fifteen percent chance the Democrat actually 1:24:06.160 --> 1:24:08.639 wins in a district that Donald Trump won by twenty 1:24:08.640 --> 1:24:11.799 two points. That just shows you how bad the environment 1:24:12.000 --> 1:24:14.320 is for Republicans right now that the Democrat has any 1:24:14.360 --> 1:24:16.080 sort of a chance in this talk to me about. 1:24:15.800 --> 1:24:20.280 With special look, he's just authoritatively rattling off complete speculation 1:24:20.560 --> 1:24:25.360 on a Democrat victory. As big screens display percentages in 1:24:25.560 --> 1:24:30.639 huge text with source Calshi in tiny text, the bottom 1:24:30.680 --> 1:24:34.599 of the screen. Ordinary polling showed that this was a 1:24:34.680 --> 1:24:38.240 close race that leaned Red by two to eight points, 1:24:38.520 --> 1:24:42.160 and the Republican did end up winning by nine points. 1:24:42.479 --> 1:24:46.840 To quote the broken clock Nate silver quote. Without having 1:24:46.920 --> 1:24:50.760 polls to look at, the prediction markets would probably kind 1:24:50.800 --> 1:24:56.280 of suck at making election forecasts. Translating polls into probabilities 1:24:56.400 --> 1:24:59.960 is considerably more complicated when there are many correlated races 1:25:00.120 --> 1:25:02.800 is at once, such as in the battle for the 1:25:02.800 --> 1:25:07.320 Electoral College or control of Congress. Prediction markets had a 1:25:07.360 --> 1:25:11.160 strong twenty twenty four in this regard. They leaned toward 1:25:11.240 --> 1:25:13.920 Trump when our model had it at fifty to fifty. 1:25:14.640 --> 1:25:17.439 I don't think this was because of any special modeling 1:25:17.560 --> 1:25:21.200 insight per se, but because they incorporated some sort of 1:25:21.439 --> 1:25:27.559 prior intuition that Trump would overperform his polls. Again, so 1:25:27.800 --> 1:25:31.519 give the markets credit for that. These sorts of soft 1:25:31.640 --> 1:25:37.000 quote unquote intangible intuitions can be valuable, though you'd need 1:25:37.080 --> 1:25:40.120 a lot of data to determine whether they add or 1:25:40.160 --> 1:25:44.880 subtract value in the long run unquote. As Nate himself acknowledges, 1:25:45.280 --> 1:25:48.679 someone like Andrew Cuomo had much higher betting odds throughout 1:25:48.680 --> 1:25:52.560 the entire New York mayoral race than a purely statistical 1:25:52.680 --> 1:25:56.760 model would show. A contention I have with Nate. One 1:25:56.800 --> 1:26:02.240 of many is though I call prediction market numbers gambling odds. 1:26:02.920 --> 1:26:08.680 They are not actual probabilities. These odds aren't based on 1:26:09.080 --> 1:26:13.879 objective mathematical principles like flipping a coin, the three door problem, 1:26:14.200 --> 1:26:18.240 or even something like blackjack. These odds are created whole 1:26:18.360 --> 1:26:23.920 cloth through guessing, sometimes educated or data informed guessing, but 1:26:24.040 --> 1:26:29.640 still primarily through people's intuition, which is susceptible to group impulses. 1:26:30.320 --> 1:26:35.160 Many random world events lack a reliable basis of continuous 1:26:35.280 --> 1:26:38.880 controlled data that's needed to form a probability, like that 1:26:38.960 --> 1:26:42.200 which is applied to legalized sports betting. This is quite 1:26:42.240 --> 1:26:45.520 evident in the betting odds around the Last People Conclave, 1:26:45.840 --> 1:26:50.440 which had very little relevant data to use for informed predictions. 1:26:50.960 --> 1:26:54.240 There was no existing probability to support the election of 1:26:54.280 --> 1:26:58.439 an American pope, a first time occurrence. With prediction markets, 1:26:58.560 --> 1:27:01.679 people can still do research to make an informed bet, 1:27:02.080 --> 1:27:05.080 but it's not really the case that X candidate is 1:27:05.160 --> 1:27:08.960 mathematically expected to win an election. Eighty out of one 1:27:09.040 --> 1:27:13.800 hundred instances, a hive mind of users have formed that 1:27:13.880 --> 1:27:18.000 statistical division through the power of money. Eighty percent of 1:27:18.040 --> 1:27:21.799 users are betting that a certain result is likely to occur. 1:27:22.720 --> 1:27:26.360 So the problem isn't just that, like Nate says, people 1:27:26.400 --> 1:27:31.840 are confusing probabilities for polls. It's that they're confusing prediction 1:27:32.000 --> 1:27:37.360 market betting odds for mathematical probabilities. It's this difference that 1:27:37.439 --> 1:27:41.880 allows betting on sports outcomes via Calshian polymarket, even in 1:27:42.000 --> 1:27:46.439 states that ban typical sports betting, because you're not actually 1:27:46.479 --> 1:27:51.720 betting on fixed odds, you're betting against other investors. And 1:27:51.800 --> 1:27:56.560 now news companies are not just manufacturing consent and normalizing 1:27:56.640 --> 1:28:01.280 political gambling, but are actively incur the use of these 1:28:01.320 --> 1:28:06.719 platforms and endorsing the predictive capacity of these gambling markets. 1:28:07.160 --> 1:28:10.920 Anderson Cooper calls it the quote unquote wisdom of crowds. 1:28:11.479 --> 1:28:16.240 But we already have methods for learning group consensus, like polling, 1:28:16.640 --> 1:28:20.519 which may have problems, but frankly far fewer problems than 1:28:20.720 --> 1:28:25.479 gambling on world events. Beyond the moral qualms of betting 1:28:25.520 --> 1:28:29.639 money on human suffering, prediction markets are susceptible to not 1:28:29.840 --> 1:28:33.439 just personal bias, but group bias. Based on the current 1:28:33.520 --> 1:28:37.000 ratio of odds. This in group consensus can be influenced 1:28:37.000 --> 1:28:41.160 by short lived trending topics, and these platforms cater to 1:28:41.240 --> 1:28:46.120 a hyper online point of view. Prediction market users provide 1:28:46.160 --> 1:28:51.400 a very non representational sample variety pulling from a very 1:28:51.439 --> 1:28:56.680 specific type of guy who regularly uses these platforms. To 1:28:56.760 --> 1:29:02.000 quote from Calshe's CNN partnership announced quote Calshi has become 1:29:02.040 --> 1:29:04.600 the definitive source for staying informed about the future and 1:29:04.720 --> 1:29:08.479 is used by reporters, politicians, pundits, Wall Street and Main Street, 1:29:08.760 --> 1:29:11.400 and recently called the New York City mayoral election eight 1:29:11.479 --> 1:29:15.439 minutes after polls closed, hours before the media. It's because 1:29:15.479 --> 1:29:18.800 of this accuracy that Calshi's data will serve as a 1:29:18.920 --> 1:29:22.880 powerful compliment to c and n's reporting. Journalists can more 1:29:22.920 --> 1:29:26.160 easily surface credible information to their audiences about the real 1:29:26.200 --> 1:29:32.160 time probabilities of future cultural and political events unquote. In practice, 1:29:32.240 --> 1:29:37.880 this reporting mixes gambling data and actually reputable or credible 1:29:37.960 --> 1:29:43.120 polls in a confusing way, like this recent CNN segment 1:29:43.160 --> 1:29:46.960 which cites calshi odds on whether Trump will send tariff 1:29:46.960 --> 1:29:51.599 stimulus checks, as well as CBS you gov polling data 1:29:51.920 --> 1:29:55.160 on if tears lower prices back to back in this 1:29:55.360 --> 1:29:57.400 same segment, do. 1:29:57.320 --> 1:29:59.760 They think that the tariffs that these rebate checks are 1:29:59.760 --> 1:30:03.080 at actually coming and at this point no, No, I 1:30:03.080 --> 1:30:07.200 mean chance Trump tariff, the tariff simulus checks are sent 1:30:07.240 --> 1:30:10.560 to Americans by August of twenty twenty six. It's a 1:30:10.600 --> 1:30:13.400 twenty five percent chance. That's one in four. So that's 1:30:13.439 --> 1:30:17.840 not nothing. But the American people right now are craving, 1:30:18.200 --> 1:30:20.840 craving some relief, and at this point it doesn't look 1:30:20.920 --> 1:30:23.439 like it is coming. Although I will not John Berman, 1:30:23.600 --> 1:30:26.960 this twenty five percent, it is greater than this six 1:30:27.040 --> 1:30:30.400 percent who say that tariffs decreased prices, or that five 1:30:30.400 --> 1:30:33.880 percent back in March, which are just you never see one, two, three, four, 1:30:34.240 --> 1:30:37.800 five percent. So look, twenty five percent ain't nothing, but 1:30:38.080 --> 1:30:38.400 at this. 1:30:38.360 --> 1:30:39.000 Point it's low. 1:30:39.080 --> 1:30:41.280 Yeah, it's interesting the prediction markets think they only one 1:30:41.320 --> 1:30:43.080 in four chance that will actually happen. 1:30:43.080 --> 1:30:47.760 There is this really what the future of political forecasting 1:30:47.840 --> 1:30:48.360 is going to be? 1:30:49.640 --> 1:30:50.040 Maybe? 1:30:50.160 --> 1:30:54.240 Maybe not, but there are four horsemen of this political 1:30:54.360 --> 1:30:59.920 gambling apocalypse. Nate Silver via his gamification of election prediction 1:31:00.240 --> 1:31:03.400 based on his time as a professional gambler sports betting, 1:31:03.840 --> 1:31:06.599 especially since the Supreme Court struck down a federal law 1:31:06.640 --> 1:31:10.400 banning sports betting outside of Nevada in twenty eighteen, resulting 1:31:10.479 --> 1:31:14.559 in almost forty states subsequently legalizing some form of sports betting, 1:31:14.680 --> 1:31:17.800 which has facilitated the cassibility of gambling to grow dramatically 1:31:17.800 --> 1:31:19.680 across the country in the past ten years through the 1:31:19.680 --> 1:31:24.639 spread of online sports betting apps. The third horseman is Trump, 1:31:24.640 --> 1:31:29.120 for the Trump administration through their removal of regulatory hurdles 1:31:29.360 --> 1:31:34.200 facing prediction markets. And finally that CNN guy Harry Enton, 1:31:34.720 --> 1:31:38.040 a Nate Silver protege who trailblazed the use of political 1:31:38.040 --> 1:31:42.799 gambling data in news stories the past year. These four horsemen, 1:31:43.000 --> 1:31:47.200 Nate Silver, sports betting, Trump, and Harry Enton have created 1:31:47.240 --> 1:31:51.959 the cultural and political conditions for political gambling to spread. 1:31:52.120 --> 1:31:56.000 Like wildfire, which, hey, is also something you can bet on. 1:31:56.600 --> 1:31:59.920 During the LA Fires prediction market, users could bet on 1:32:00.120 --> 1:32:04.240 how many acres would burn. So what is the endgame 1:32:04.280 --> 1:32:07.280 of this, this gambling apocalypse that seems to be inching 1:32:07.280 --> 1:32:11.000 its way closer and closer to answer that? Here's a 1:32:11.000 --> 1:32:15.000 clip from Calshi co founder and CEO Trek Manser. 1:32:16.000 --> 1:32:19.120 The long term vision is to financialize everything and create 1:32:19.120 --> 1:32:21.439 a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion. We 1:32:21.520 --> 1:32:23.880 are living in a word where like we have an 1:32:23.880 --> 1:32:25.920 abundance of information, but there's a lot of noise, and 1:32:26.040 --> 1:32:28.160 like we don't really understand what's real from what's not. 1:32:28.240 --> 1:32:30.519 Our prediction markets are an anadote to that. They do 1:32:30.520 --> 1:32:33.960 a very very good job at distilling information and surfacing 1:32:34.040 --> 1:32:35.920 truth to people. And you're seeing the sort of massive 1:32:35.920 --> 1:32:38.800 shift where like people are using them whenever they think 1:32:38.800 --> 1:32:41.360 about questions about the future, you know, whenever they're debating 1:32:41.400 --> 1:32:43.640 about anything. And I think that trajectory is going to 1:32:43.720 --> 1:32:45.599 keep going. That's a new consumer habit that I don't 1:32:45.600 --> 1:32:46.639 think is going to be undone. 1:32:47.600 --> 1:32:52.120 This is the demon child of crypto and sports betting, 1:32:52.439 --> 1:32:56.599 this financialization of everything to form a tradable asset out 1:32:56.600 --> 1:33:01.280 of any difference in opinion, creating new addictive consumer habits. 1:33:02.040 --> 1:33:05.599 These companies want to apply the logic of smartphone sports 1:33:05.600 --> 1:33:10.439 betting to everything, where everyone gets to be their own 1:33:10.479 --> 1:33:14.639 little Nate Silver while carrying around their own digital casino 1:33:14.720 --> 1:33:18.559 in their pocket, getting addicted to gambling on speculation of 1:33:18.680 --> 1:33:23.000 world suffering, and CNN is complicit in this. CNN and 1:33:23.080 --> 1:33:26.680 others have decided to partner with platforms that enable the 1:33:26.720 --> 1:33:28.880 people who decide when to drop bombs around the world 1:33:28.920 --> 1:33:32.280 to win millions of dollars by betting money on the 1:33:32.400 --> 1:33:36.280 choices they themselves are making at the expense of the 1:33:36.320 --> 1:33:39.439 rest of the world. And these companies think this is 1:33:39.560 --> 1:33:43.080 a good thing because the betting odds can serve as 1:33:43.080 --> 1:33:46.439 a potential heads up that something is likely to happen. 1:33:47.360 --> 1:33:51.439 Simple consumer protections for users, which currently are non existent, 1:33:51.880 --> 1:33:55.559 are just not enough. Congress needs to be far more 1:33:55.600 --> 1:33:59.120 involved in regulating online betting, and in the case of 1:33:59.200 --> 1:34:03.280 political events, it should just be completely banned. It is 1:34:03.360 --> 1:34:07.840 detrimental to a healthy society. It incentivizes corruption, cruelty, and 1:34:07.920 --> 1:34:12.240 erodes public trust. Gambling doesn't need to go away entirely, 1:34:12.479 --> 1:34:15.559 but it should return to being time and location locked. 1:34:15.960 --> 1:34:20.320 Go to Las Vegas like a fucking adult. Currently, there 1:34:20.439 --> 1:34:26.719 is no existing mechanism for individual states to regulate prediction markets. 1:34:27.439 --> 1:34:32.000 Only the federal government can, and Trump's federal government certainly 1:34:32.040 --> 1:34:35.719 seems like it's not going to considering the President's sun 1:34:36.000 --> 1:34:40.599 works for both of the main platforms, Kalshi and poly Market, 1:34:41.360 --> 1:34:45.519 and while news companies are legitimizing this, these platforms are 1:34:45.520 --> 1:34:50.479 now working as their own news aggregators, specifically Polymarket social 1:34:50.479 --> 1:34:54.080 media account, which is acting as a news aggregation account 1:34:54.560 --> 1:34:57.400 because that drives traffic back to their website, where people 1:34:57.439 --> 1:35:00.479 can bet on the news stories that Polymarket is sharing, 1:35:00.880 --> 1:35:05.000 even if those news stories are speculative or completely made up. 1:35:05.880 --> 1:35:11.280 On December fifth, Polymarket posted quote justin suspected J six 1:35:11.360 --> 1:35:14.920 pipe Bomber's legal council projected to argue he was included 1:35:15.000 --> 1:35:19.720 in Trump's pardon of those involved in January sixth unquote. 1:35:19.760 --> 1:35:23.679 This claim subsequently spread all around the Internet, parroted by 1:35:23.720 --> 1:35:27.680 people of a variety of political orientations. But if you 1:35:27.800 --> 1:35:32.439 read closely, the original post says suspected J six pipe 1:35:32.439 --> 1:35:38.200 Bomber's legal council projected to argue he was included in 1:35:38.320 --> 1:35:42.920 Trump's pardon, Polly Market is just spreading gambling information as 1:35:43.000 --> 1:35:47.599 if it is news content. Quote unquote projected just means 1:35:47.600 --> 1:35:52.320 that polymarket users are betting on this, But these projected 1:35:52.320 --> 1:35:55.760 posts are mixed in with other posts just aggregating the 1:35:55.840 --> 1:36:00.000 day's news. So unless you are paying super close attention, 1:36:00.280 --> 1:36:03.280 which rarely people on the Internet are, this becomes a 1:36:03.400 --> 1:36:08.439 trojan horse of disinformation. When news companies use the term 1:36:08.560 --> 1:36:13.400 projected on election night. Usually that indicates with pretty clear 1:36:13.720 --> 1:36:17.679 mathematical certainty that an event is going to happen. When 1:36:17.760 --> 1:36:22.840 polymarket uses projected in news tweets, it only indicates that 1:36:22.960 --> 1:36:26.320 Internet gamblers are swinging around money in an effort to 1:36:26.439 --> 1:36:31.160 create truth with once legitimate news companies not just complicit 1:36:31.720 --> 1:36:36.760 but active participants in this process. That doesn't for us 1:36:36.800 --> 1:36:39.680 today at it Could Happen Here, see you on the 1:36:39.720 --> 1:37:01.000 other side. 1:36:51.680 --> 1:36:55.200 Welcome to it Could Happen Here podcast, where a bunch 1:36:55.240 --> 1:36:59.000 of incredibly convoluted and very silly financial instruments to shore 1:36:59.080 --> 1:37:01.080 the entire world to come to me. I am your host, 1:37:01.120 --> 1:37:04.720 Mia Wong, and with me today is someone who does 1:37:04.760 --> 1:37:07.600 not spend all of her time deep in the bowels 1:37:07.800 --> 1:37:12.680 of arcane bullshit written by different Federal Reserve boards. And 1:37:12.720 --> 1:37:16.000 that is Maldy Conger, who is the host of the 1:37:16.040 --> 1:37:19.680 absolutely delightful I mean, okay, I guess this is a 1:37:19.760 --> 1:37:23.880 who is really winning here? Kind of question? In terms 1:37:23.880 --> 1:37:26.600 of things research. 1:37:26.400 --> 1:37:29.040 You spent a lot of time reading stuff written by 1:37:29.240 --> 1:37:31.840 Federal Reserve guys. I read a lot of stuff written 1:37:31.840 --> 1:37:35.320 by guys who want to kill the Federal Reserve guys. Yeah, 1:37:36.439 --> 1:37:38.400 you know what, I still don't know what the Federal 1:37:38.400 --> 1:37:40.000 Reserve is and I'm not gonna find out. 1:37:41.120 --> 1:37:45.439 You know, I don't actually think knowing what the Federal 1:37:45.479 --> 1:37:47.960 Reserve is somehow it doesn't change anything, And I don't 1:37:47.960 --> 1:37:50.400 think it's actually relevant to this app I mean it 1:37:50.560 --> 1:37:52.400 kind of. It's obviously it's relevant to everything. 1:37:52.400 --> 1:37:55.679 But well, means to say is the reason I'm here 1:37:55.920 --> 1:37:57.880 is because I don't know what the economy is, and 1:37:57.920 --> 1:37:59.760 at this point I'm afraid to find out. 1:38:00.439 --> 1:38:02.679 And unfortunately your worst fears are happening. 1:38:02.760 --> 1:38:04.720 Oh don't worry. By the end of this, I will 1:38:04.720 --> 1:38:05.480 not understand. 1:38:06.160 --> 1:38:09.880 I am going to attempt to explain the economy, and 1:38:09.920 --> 1:38:15.200 by by the economy, I mean shadow banking. Yeah. Also, 1:38:15.439 --> 1:38:17.120 before before I go into this, though, you should, you 1:38:17.120 --> 1:38:18.439 should listen to Weird Little Guys. 1:38:18.560 --> 1:38:19.400 It is. 1:38:19.439 --> 1:38:22.080 It's it's really good. I like it. All my friends 1:38:22.240 --> 1:38:22.880 really like it. 1:38:23.280 --> 1:38:23.680 Thank you. 1:38:24.080 --> 1:38:30.360 Yeah, it's somehow a nice comma, kind of relaxing show 1:38:30.560 --> 1:38:33.360 about neo Nazis. 1:38:33.439 --> 1:38:38.400 So that's very chill vibes. Yeah for a show about 1:38:38.400 --> 1:38:40.920 guys who are trying to like blow up school bus. Yes, yep. 1:38:42.120 --> 1:38:44.960 So all right, you know I'm reading this I'm looking 1:38:45.040 --> 1:38:48.240 over this script. Miraculously this isn't Oh wait, hold on, 1:38:49.040 --> 1:38:50.720 I think I cut the part where people blow up 1:38:50.760 --> 1:38:53.559 school buses. There was legitimately a segment in here that 1:38:53.600 --> 1:38:56.040 I might put back in or someone blows up a 1:38:56.040 --> 1:38:56.599 school bus. 1:38:56.760 --> 1:38:59.000 But what a crossover event. 1:38:59.520 --> 1:39:02.880 Oh oh boy, the Saudi is really good at that shit. 1:39:02.960 --> 1:39:07.280 It turns out okay, okay, But let let's get back 1:39:07.280 --> 1:39:10.679 to the topic at hand, which is what is shadow banking? 1:39:11.000 --> 1:39:13.280 And why does it matter to all of us people 1:39:13.320 --> 1:39:15.920 who live in the normal real world and not in 1:39:16.040 --> 1:39:17.080 fake finance world. 1:39:17.920 --> 1:39:19.759 Does it have anything to do with shadow wolves? 1:39:20.160 --> 1:39:22.519 Unfortunately, noe? 1:39:22.640 --> 1:39:23.759 What about shadow facts? 1:39:24.360 --> 1:39:28.760 Sadly, actually, there probably is a connection between the financing 1:39:28.800 --> 1:39:31.759 for the Lord of the Rings movies and shadow banking. 1:39:32.120 --> 1:39:34.439 I'm just too tired to work it right now. 1:39:34.960 --> 1:39:37.719 I've dragged us off track if we haven't even gotten 1:39:37.800 --> 1:39:39.280 on track yet. What is shadow bank? 1:39:39.479 --> 1:39:42.040 Okay? So the good news, the good news this is 1:39:42.080 --> 1:39:44.320 this is the first it's not the last piece of 1:39:44.320 --> 1:39:47.760 good news. We're gonna get this episode. But come the 1:39:47.880 --> 1:39:51.320 definition used by most non academics is actually. 1:39:51.479 --> 1:39:52.920 Not that bad. 1:39:53.680 --> 1:39:56.960 There's a pretty good It's very wishy washy because it's 1:39:56.960 --> 1:39:59.800 a congressional report, and so it's specifically not supposed to 1:39:59.840 --> 1:40:02.800 be taking a stance in either direction on anything because 1:40:02.800 --> 1:40:04.960 it's it's the Congressional Review Office, and they're supposed to 1:40:04.960 --> 1:40:08.400 be neutral, et cetera, et cetera. Allegedly, Yeah, right, you know, 1:40:08.479 --> 1:40:11.679 and like obviously they're not, but like you know, it's 1:40:11.720 --> 1:40:15.880 like kind of fine congressional report on the subject. And 1:40:15.960 --> 1:40:19.880 they do the thing that almost everyone does, which is 1:40:19.920 --> 1:40:23.960 they go back to the definition created by the Financial 1:40:24.000 --> 1:40:26.600 Stability Board, and I'm just gonna I'm just going to 1:40:26.760 --> 1:40:31.600 quote that because it's not that bad. Quote financial activities 1:40:31.640 --> 1:40:36.240 facilitated by institutions other than central banks, banks or public 1:40:36.280 --> 1:40:37.440 financial institutions. 1:40:38.479 --> 1:40:40.559 So it's banking that doesn't involve a bank. 1:40:40.640 --> 1:40:41.439 Yeah, canceled. 1:40:41.520 --> 1:40:42.799 I'm out. I'm out already. 1:40:43.080 --> 1:40:43.280 Yes. 1:40:44.200 --> 1:40:48.720 And they don't mean like me loaning you twenty dollars, No, no, no, 1:40:48.960 --> 1:40:52.800 of course not. They just mean unregulated banking. Oh yeah, 1:40:53.040 --> 1:40:54.679 which you can't legally call banking. 1:40:55.400 --> 1:40:57.880 I mean you actually can't legally call it banking. It's 1:40:58.000 --> 1:41:01.479 just things get weird really quickly. 1:41:01.560 --> 1:41:03.880 I Mean I'm not a bank understander, but I know 1:41:03.880 --> 1:41:06.880 at least in Virginia. You can't incorporate a business that 1:41:06.960 --> 1:41:09.280 has the word bank in the title unless you are 1:41:09.360 --> 1:41:12.120 legally a bank, because that's like misleading. 1:41:12.280 --> 1:41:14.439 Yeah, I don't think they can legally call themselves a bank, 1:41:14.479 --> 1:41:16.520 but I guess you can call it banking activity. 1:41:16.800 --> 1:41:18.160 That's stupid in a matter already. 1:41:18.479 --> 1:41:20.800 Yes, Oh, you're gonna get so much more mad by 1:41:20.840 --> 1:41:24.240 the end of this. So the base definition is it's 1:41:24.280 --> 1:41:27.080 not that complicated, right, It's something that does banking stuff 1:41:27.120 --> 1:41:30.240 that is legally not a bank, you know, And so 1:41:30.360 --> 1:41:34.200 we could talk about what kinds of things is this, right, 1:41:34.760 --> 1:41:38.360 It's like private equity firms, it's hedge funds, it's venture 1:41:38.400 --> 1:41:39.480 capital firms. 1:41:40.000 --> 1:41:42.559 So it's like evil stuff that ruins the world for 1:41:42.600 --> 1:41:44.920 no reason except for like ten guys make money. 1:41:45.479 --> 1:41:47.880 Yeah, but it's also you know, pension funds, it's like 1:41:47.920 --> 1:41:52.280 insurance companies. It's sovereign wealth funds, business development companies, repot markets, 1:41:52.320 --> 1:41:57.160 broker dealers, special investment vehicles, securitization vehicles, money market mutual funds, 1:41:57.200 --> 1:41:59.400 assey backed commercial paper conduits. 1:41:59.760 --> 1:42:02.920 Hey thing, Bud, most of those things you just said 1:42:02.960 --> 1:42:05.080 to me are fake and they make me upset. 1:42:05.640 --> 1:42:06.679 It's really bad. 1:42:07.000 --> 1:42:11.800 Sovereign wealth funds. Shop, that's not that's not me. I 1:42:11.880 --> 1:42:14.240 still you know all these all these things are just 1:42:14.240 --> 1:42:17.320 like different ways of saying like you're poor and you're 1:42:17.360 --> 1:42:17.840 gonna die. 1:42:18.120 --> 1:42:18.280 Yeah. 1:42:18.280 --> 1:42:18.439 I mean. 1:42:18.439 --> 1:42:20.799 The funny thing is sovereign wealth fund is like kind 1:42:20.840 --> 1:42:24.200 of a less fake one in that it's like, hey, 1:42:24.240 --> 1:42:26.439 this is like fake. It's the well. It's like, this 1:42:26.520 --> 1:42:29.000 is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has pooled all of 1:42:29.000 --> 1:42:32.240 the money it's gotten from its like horrific crimes and 1:42:32.280 --> 1:42:34.479 put them together into one giant thing, and that's a 1:42:34.479 --> 1:42:35.400 sovereign wealth fund. 1:42:35.880 --> 1:42:37.360 Oh, so it's good, it's what you mean. 1:42:39.400 --> 1:42:42.120 No, I am a notable. There is, by the way, 1:42:42.160 --> 1:42:44.320 a camp of people who believe that sovereign wealth funds 1:42:44.320 --> 1:42:46.599 are like a socialist thing and that you could use 1:42:46.600 --> 1:42:47.560 them to do socialism. 1:42:47.600 --> 1:42:48.759 I'm gonna jump out the window. 1:42:48.840 --> 1:42:51.880 I think this is so stupid. Yeah, this is we 1:42:52.080 --> 1:42:55.559 haven't even gotten into the nightmare stuff. So remember I 1:42:55.600 --> 1:42:59.320 was talking about the Financial Stability Board definition in that 1:42:59.360 --> 1:43:02.000 congressional right where it's like, okay, this is a bank 1:43:02.040 --> 1:43:03.920 that does non banking stuff or a non bank that 1:43:03.920 --> 1:43:05.240 does banking stuff. Sorry, oh, I. 1:43:05.160 --> 1:43:07.200 Guess we should say, I guess we forgot to say 1:43:07.200 --> 1:43:09.800 at the top. The reason you're explaining shadow banking to 1:43:09.880 --> 1:43:12.439 me is because we saw an article last week that 1:43:13.280 --> 1:43:15.840 what those those not banks were putting a stop on 1:43:15.920 --> 1:43:18.840 withdrawals from their not banks and I didn't know what 1:43:18.880 --> 1:43:19.320 that meant. 1:43:19.880 --> 1:43:24.160 Yeah, that's amazingly this this is so convoluted. We're not 1:43:24.160 --> 1:43:25.599 even gonna get to that this week. 1:43:25.520 --> 1:43:27.519 Right, But like that's that's why we're. 1:43:27.360 --> 1:43:30.000 Explaining that's why. Right, there's like, yeah, there's like there's 1:43:30.040 --> 1:43:32.200 like a mini bank run going on with these like 1:43:32.280 --> 1:43:36.400 shadow banks banks. Yeah, so we're gonna get into how 1:43:36.479 --> 1:43:39.200 that can happen and why. But but before we get there, 1:43:39.240 --> 1:43:41.840 we need to talk about all, right, to get a 1:43:41.880 --> 1:43:44.920 sense of the complexity of this. Right, the Congressional report 1:43:45.040 --> 1:43:49.000 and like, the accepted terminology for this is not shadow banks, it. 1:43:48.880 --> 1:43:50.960 Is, right, that can't be their official name. That's not 1:43:51.000 --> 1:43:51.800 their government name. 1:43:52.439 --> 1:43:57.479 No, it's it's non bank financial intermediation. Now what the 1:43:57.560 --> 1:43:59.519 fuck is that? And this is where this episode goes 1:43:59.520 --> 1:44:02.920 completely off the rails, because the components of what count 1:44:02.960 --> 1:44:06.479 as intermediation are so complicated. I Am not going to 1:44:06.520 --> 1:44:08.760 try to describe it until literally the end of this. 1:44:09.040 --> 1:44:11.719 I mean, is it like what is Venmo officially? Really? 1:44:11.760 --> 1:44:15.240 Venmo's not a bank, but it provides like financial services. 1:44:15.800 --> 1:44:18.280 Actually, I by. 1:44:18.320 --> 1:44:20.360 Because it's because it's like a financial intermediary. 1:44:20.439 --> 1:44:23.479 Right, Yeah, it might technically be a non bank. I 1:44:24.080 --> 1:44:26.479 don't know what the regulatory structure is. 1:44:26.560 --> 1:44:28.000 It's not legally about Yeah, I. 1:44:28.400 --> 1:44:29.880 Think I think that technically is. 1:44:29.880 --> 1:44:31.479 One score one for Mali. 1:44:32.200 --> 1:44:35.439 Yeah. But okay, so this is this is gonna get 1:44:35.479 --> 1:44:39.960 really bad. Okay, So when I first started researching this episode, right, 1:44:40.000 --> 1:44:43.639 the first thing that I click on is is the 1:44:43.640 --> 1:44:47.479 Federal Reserves chart of how the shadow banking sector works 1:44:47.479 --> 1:44:49.760 compared to the normal banking sector. Molly, you have seen 1:44:49.800 --> 1:44:52.439 this because I posted it as a joke in our 1:44:52.439 --> 1:44:57.799 group chat. This chart, I have like a very very large, 1:44:58.000 --> 1:45:00.679 like it is like a big normal ass I monitor 1:45:00.840 --> 1:45:03.200 that I like to do my work on. I had 1:45:03.200 --> 1:45:06.479 to zoom in to three hundred and eighty percent just 1:45:06.560 --> 1:45:10.120 to make out the letters that label the boxes on 1:45:10.160 --> 1:45:12.519 this chart. If you want to read it, you have 1:45:12.560 --> 1:45:14.960 to zoom into five hundred percent. 1:45:15.439 --> 1:45:16.960 That doesn't seem like a well made chart. 1:45:17.800 --> 1:45:20.240 No, here's the thing, it's actually really good. It's just 1:45:20.320 --> 1:45:24.920 this complicated. I learned later from a paper by Copenhagen 1:45:25.000 --> 1:45:29.240 Business School professor Odny Helga Daughter. We're gonna come back 1:45:29.280 --> 1:45:32.559 to Hellga Daughter's work a lot in this episode, but 1:45:33.000 --> 1:45:36.080 I learned from from her because she has also experienced 1:45:36.080 --> 1:45:38.960 seeing this same chart and going what the is this 1:45:39.000 --> 1:45:42.200 fuck ass chart? I found out that the Federal Reserve 1:45:42.320 --> 1:45:45.759 recommends that in order to have the diagram be legible, 1:45:46.200 --> 1:45:49.880 you're supposed to print this chart as a three foot 1:45:50.040 --> 1:45:51.599 by four foot poster. 1:45:52.160 --> 1:45:56.280 Oh that makes sense, like meeting style, but like we're on. 1:45:56.360 --> 1:45:59.200 Easel, yeah right, But like again, this is this is 1:45:59.240 --> 1:46:02.760 a diagram that he's just labeling the parts of the 1:46:02.840 --> 1:46:06.120 system and making and making like a line that shows 1:46:06.160 --> 1:46:07.439 how stuff moves through it. 1:46:07.680 --> 1:46:10.280 I guess I still don't know what we're talking about. 1:46:12.080 --> 1:46:14.080 Yeah, so this is what we're going to get into 1:46:14.200 --> 1:46:16.559 in a second, But first we have to talk about 1:46:16.600 --> 1:46:19.200 something even more bleak, which is that Oh yeah, by 1:46:19.240 --> 1:46:21.920 the way, these like non banking bank things like these 1:46:21.920 --> 1:46:24.240 like all these like venture capital firms, all these hedge funds, 1:46:24.240 --> 1:46:29.840 all these fucking weird ghoulish banks that are not banks. Uh, yeah, 1:46:29.880 --> 1:46:33.280 they have twice as many assets than the regular banking system. 1:46:33.640 --> 1:46:35.120 Oh that doesn't seem good. 1:46:35.520 --> 1:46:37.599 Oh, it's about to get worse. It's about to get worse. 1:46:37.640 --> 1:46:40.800 Molly, that's that's like saying I keep seventy percent of 1:46:40.800 --> 1:46:43.160 the food in my house outside on the porch like 1:46:43.400 --> 1:46:44.360 it goes in the fridge. 1:46:44.400 --> 1:46:48.679 Oh, oh, it's so bad. It's so bad. So okay. 1:46:49.000 --> 1:46:50.800 There's a pretty good congressional report that I was talking 1:46:50.800 --> 1:46:55.160 about earlier that has this terrifying quote quote. As of 1:46:55.200 --> 1:46:59.360 twenty twenty three, the broad measured total financial assets and 1:46:59.439 --> 1:47:03.400 narrow measu your assets at nbfisis is the shadow banks 1:47:04.000 --> 1:47:09.360 reached eighty five point seven trillion dollars and twenty two 1:47:09.479 --> 1:47:13.120 point two trillion dollars, respectively in the United States. 1:47:13.280 --> 1:47:15.120 But that's more than our GDP. 1:47:15.680 --> 1:47:18.200 That's almost three times our GDP. 1:47:18.439 --> 1:47:21.879 So that's a fake amount of money. Yes, that's not real. 1:47:21.760 --> 1:47:25.599 At all, but it kind of is. Right. These compared 1:47:25.680 --> 1:47:28.920 to total financial assets of thirty one point one trillion 1:47:28.960 --> 1:47:32.840 dollars at banks in the same period. So again, this 1:47:32.920 --> 1:47:35.839 is this is almost three times our GDP in assets 1:47:35.840 --> 1:47:37.200 that they manage or control. 1:47:37.400 --> 1:47:40.000 So where does the money live? 1:47:40.640 --> 1:47:47.760 In a whole bunch of unbelievably convoluted bullshit like combinations 1:47:47.800 --> 1:47:50.439 of like loans and real estate and stuff like that. 1:47:50.600 --> 1:47:53.320 It's not real money. So like, okay, imagine this is 1:47:53.400 --> 1:47:56.600 schoolhouse rock and instead of the singing bill, you're like 1:47:56.640 --> 1:48:00.799 a dollar bill, Like where are you we are about 1:48:00.840 --> 1:48:03.800 to explain this, where does the money live? 1:48:04.800 --> 1:48:08.360 Yeah? So okay, okay, we're we are about one huge 1:48:08.400 --> 1:48:11.000 paragraphs away from getting to this or like one paragraph. 1:48:11.040 --> 1:48:12.479 Okay. 1:48:12.560 --> 1:48:14.680 So the other thing that's very important about this, and 1:48:14.720 --> 1:48:16.360 this is something Mollie was kind of touching up at 1:48:16.320 --> 1:48:17.639 the beginning to get the Eppen, So maybe I should 1:48:17.640 --> 1:48:20.120 have opened with this. Yeah, these people, these are the 1:48:20.120 --> 1:48:22.320 people who blew up the economy in two thousand and eight. 1:48:22.800 --> 1:48:24.880 Well, yeah, because they're making stuff up. 1:48:25.120 --> 1:48:28.240 Yeah, it's so, it's so bullshit, Molly, You're gonna get 1:48:28.240 --> 1:48:28.679 so mad. 1:48:28.960 --> 1:48:30.920 If this is Calvin Ball, fuck you I win. 1:48:31.200 --> 1:48:35.519 Yeah, it literally is. It's nonsense. It's gibberish. They're doing 1:48:35.560 --> 1:48:38.200 fucking betting markets with the entire world economy. 1:48:38.320 --> 1:48:39.679 Oh yeah, we can all do that now. 1:48:40.680 --> 1:48:43.080 Yeah, it's fun. It's like we we now have the 1:48:43.120 --> 1:48:45.439 power to do the shit that destroyed the entire world 1:48:45.479 --> 1:48:47.599 economy in two thousand and eight. So that the thing 1:48:47.600 --> 1:48:50.639 about shadow banking, and the reason why it's complicated to explain, 1:48:50.840 --> 1:48:54.440 is that it's a catch all term for like a 1:48:54.479 --> 1:48:58.280 million types of institutions that do different things, right, the 1:48:58.280 --> 1:49:01.880 commonality they have is that they're all not regulated by 1:49:02.000 --> 1:49:03.560 the banking regulations. 1:49:03.920 --> 1:49:04.000 Right. 1:49:04.040 --> 1:49:05.880 It's like, we found a way to do financial crime 1:49:05.880 --> 1:49:08.320 that's not illegal because they forgot to make this illegal. 1:49:08.600 --> 1:49:11.280 Yeah, and you know, but but the thing is it's 1:49:11.320 --> 1:49:15.519 so embedded into the system that, like the US debt 1:49:16.000 --> 1:49:20.519 working is dependent on the shadow banks buying it. 1:49:21.160 --> 1:49:23.120 Like I don't believe in that either, So I'm good. 1:49:23.280 --> 1:49:25.880 Oh it's so fake, Molly, I'm not even gonna attempt 1:49:25.920 --> 1:49:28.639 to explain what an overnight repo purchases to you, because 1:49:29.120 --> 1:49:31.280 it's the fakest thing I've ever seen, where they just 1:49:31.680 --> 1:49:34.000 they make one trillion dollars exist overnight and then it 1:49:34.000 --> 1:49:36.320 stops existing at the end of the night. It's incredible. 1:49:36.800 --> 1:49:38.680 I love how much of the economy is based on 1:49:38.720 --> 1:49:41.280 guys just imagining stuff and agreeing on the thing they 1:49:41.360 --> 1:49:44.080 imagined and then trading their imaginary tokens like this is 1:49:44.080 --> 1:49:45.240 fucking POGs grow. 1:49:45.240 --> 1:49:48.240 Up, yep, this is this, This this is. This is, unfortunately, 1:49:48.720 --> 1:49:51.200 what our entire world is based on. It's so fun. 1:49:52.479 --> 1:49:56.880 Oh god, Okay, so what is actually shadow banking. I've 1:49:56.880 --> 1:50:00.360 given you the broadest definition possible, which is, like, again, 1:50:00.400 --> 1:50:02.759 it's the it's doing bank ship without being a bank. 1:50:03.360 --> 1:50:06.120 But let's go back to the beginning of the term, 1:50:06.600 --> 1:50:09.760 which is where most people tend to start or get 1:50:09.840 --> 1:50:13.240 to eventually. This is from an IMF paper quote. The 1:50:13.360 --> 1:50:16.760 term shadow bank was coined by economist Paul McCauley at 1:50:16.760 --> 1:50:19.719 a two thousand and seven speech at the Annual Financial 1:50:19.720 --> 1:50:23.240 Symposium hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank in Jackson, 1:50:23.280 --> 1:50:29.280 holl Wyoming. And basically, it's institutions that borrow money in 1:50:29.320 --> 1:50:33.200 the short term through money markets to finance long term loans. 1:50:33.680 --> 1:50:36.639 But they aren't banks, so they can't go through the FED. 1:50:37.280 --> 1:50:39.400 They're financing loans with other loans. 1:50:39.560 --> 1:50:42.080 Yeah, we're gonna so from a not bank. 1:50:42.360 --> 1:50:44.320 Yeah, but the big loan is from a real bank, 1:50:44.360 --> 1:50:46.160 and then the little loan is from a fake bank. 1:50:46.640 --> 1:50:48.120 Give me, none of the money is real. 1:50:48.240 --> 1:50:51.519 Hold on, hold on, okay, we're going to get there. 1:50:51.320 --> 1:50:53.559 We're going to explain this in terms of burgers. It's 1:50:53.600 --> 1:50:56.599 going to be. Okay, I believe in us perfect, perfect name. 1:50:56.760 --> 1:50:59.240 But the other thing he describes is is and this 1:50:59.280 --> 1:51:02.439 is from Helga quote in the speech. She describes shadow 1:51:02.479 --> 1:51:07.720 banking as the whole alphabet soup of leveraged up investment conduits, vehicles, 1:51:07.720 --> 1:51:11.479 and structures. So what he's talking about specifically is, these 1:51:11.479 --> 1:51:13.200 are the guys who blew up the economy. Who doesn't 1:51:13.200 --> 1:51:15.599 e like these specifically? This is what he's talking about, right, 1:51:16.000 --> 1:51:18.519 These are the people who took a mortgage and then 1:51:18.760 --> 1:51:20.800 did a bunch of bullshit to it and what's called 1:51:20.800 --> 1:51:23.920 a securitization chain. They did a bunch of bullshit to 1:51:23.960 --> 1:51:25.719 it so you could give the loan to someone else, 1:51:26.000 --> 1:51:27.840 so you could sell to someone else, and this blew 1:51:27.920 --> 1:51:29.840 up the entire world economy. That's what he's talking about. 1:51:29.880 --> 1:51:32.560 He's talking about the banks that are not banks, the 1:51:32.600 --> 1:51:35.320 shadow banks that did all of this bullshit to turn 1:51:35.880 --> 1:51:39.680 like someone's mortgage into a fucking thing you could bet on. 1:51:40.240 --> 1:51:46.080 So selling debt is like selling the idea of future money. Yeah, 1:51:46.200 --> 1:51:48.960 and then sometimes that future money doesn't cout, yeah, so 1:51:49.000 --> 1:51:49.879 it doesn't exist. 1:51:50.160 --> 1:51:52.760 So so okay, I will say you do not need 1:51:52.800 --> 1:51:55.000 to understand this yet because we haven't. We still have 1:51:55.000 --> 1:51:56.160 not already the actual explanation. 1:51:56.240 --> 1:51:57.080 I'm never going to. 1:51:57.439 --> 1:51:59.720 I believe in us, we can do this. It's not 1:51:59.760 --> 1:52:02.920 that that. Okay, I'm not torturing you on purpose. 1:52:02.960 --> 1:52:04.240 I'm just no, it's. 1:52:04.080 --> 1:52:08.120 Okay, I believe in you. So I want to mention 1:52:08.160 --> 1:52:10.920 that I'm very indebted here to the paper I mentioned 1:52:10.960 --> 1:52:15.559 earlier from Copenhagen Business School professor Adny Helga Daughter, who 1:52:15.560 --> 1:52:18.519 wrote of She wrote a very good simplified explanation of 1:52:18.560 --> 1:52:21.960 this in her Review of International Political Economy article called 1:52:22.040 --> 1:52:25.640 Banking upside Down the Implicit Politics of Shadow Banking Expertise. 1:52:26.360 --> 1:52:28.960 But okay, as you can tell by the fact that 1:52:29.040 --> 1:52:33.360 it's called Banking upside Down the Implicit Politics of shadow 1:52:33.400 --> 1:52:36.439 Banking Expertise, this has been when she's simplifying it. She's 1:52:36.479 --> 1:52:40.920 simplifying it from like economists down to like a political 1:52:40.960 --> 1:52:44.559 scientist or an anthropologist can understand this. I am about 1:52:44.600 --> 1:52:48.559 to attempt to simplify this down to a regular person, 1:52:48.760 --> 1:52:51.639 can I understand this? So I'm drawing on a lot 1:52:51.680 --> 1:52:54.160 of her stuff for the first part of this explanation, 1:52:54.680 --> 1:52:56.960 but I am I've turned it into burgers. 1:52:57.800 --> 1:53:00.439 So I'll do my best I'm being brave. 1:53:00.840 --> 1:53:04.240 Okay. So a shadow bank, right, it's something that does banking. Ship, 1:53:04.280 --> 1:53:06.280 that's not a bank. So what do I mean by banking? 1:53:06.320 --> 1:53:06.519 Shit? 1:53:07.200 --> 1:53:09.479 That was my next question. Yes, I think we need 1:53:09.520 --> 1:53:11.120 to start with what is a bank? 1:53:11.200 --> 1:53:11.360 Yes? 1:53:11.479 --> 1:53:13.559 So first, so okay, okay, and this is this is 1:53:13.600 --> 1:53:16.840 this is where we're starting here. What does a bank do? 1:53:17.479 --> 1:53:19.519 I put my money in it and they hold it 1:53:19.520 --> 1:53:19.760 for me. 1:53:20.040 --> 1:53:22.800 So no, actually, and this is the interesting part. 1:53:22.960 --> 1:53:25.759 No, they do stuff with it. Oh yeah, they're holding 1:53:25.800 --> 1:53:27.200 onto the promise of my money. 1:53:27.760 --> 1:53:30.000 Yeah, so okay, let's let's just let's just look at 1:53:30.000 --> 1:53:32.639 this for a second. So okay, So regular people give 1:53:32.680 --> 1:53:34.760 them money to store in the bank. This is called 1:53:34.760 --> 1:53:38.680 a deposit. The bank takes your money and loans it 1:53:38.720 --> 1:53:42.639 out right and uses that to make more money. This 1:53:42.680 --> 1:53:45.040 is how it pays you interest. Right, is that it's 1:53:45.080 --> 1:53:46.880 it's taking your money and it's loaning it out to 1:53:46.960 --> 1:53:50.040 other to other people, it's buying things with it. That 1:53:50.040 --> 1:53:53.479 part I understand. Yeah, And this is obviously a cartoon image. 1:53:53.479 --> 1:53:55.160 And I know there's gonna be econ people who are 1:53:55.160 --> 1:53:58.679 gonna be mad at me. Look you if you understand why. 1:53:58.600 --> 1:54:00.280 Are they listening to this. If you're you know what 1:54:00.320 --> 1:54:04.479 this means, go away. This isn't for you. I'm not 1:54:04.560 --> 1:54:07.040 humiliating myself for your entertainment, like for the. 1:54:07.040 --> 1:54:09.760 Political economy people here when I say stuff that might 1:54:09.880 --> 1:54:12.639 that's like technically kind of fuzzy. 1:54:13.160 --> 1:54:14.880 It's for me the podcast idiot. 1:54:15.120 --> 1:54:17.599 Yeah, like you you understand this, Like I work at 1:54:17.600 --> 1:54:20.120 the level of hamburgers here, so like we have to 1:54:20.120 --> 1:54:25.240 do some abstractions. So okay, the important thing for our purposes, right, 1:54:25.400 --> 1:54:27.320 is that there's two things here, right, There's like the 1:54:27.360 --> 1:54:29.920 deposit to the money you give them, and then there's 1:54:29.920 --> 1:54:33.640 the loans, right, and these operates on different timelines. 1:54:33.760 --> 1:54:33.960 Right. 1:54:34.400 --> 1:54:36.640 You can take the deposit out at any time, least 1:54:36.680 --> 1:54:39.720 in theory, but they can't get the money from the 1:54:39.760 --> 1:54:43.400 loan back at any time right now. This is like 1:54:43.720 --> 1:54:47.520 one of the critical things of what a bank is 1:54:47.240 --> 1:54:48.760 is is this timeline thing. 1:54:49.000 --> 1:54:49.200 Right. 1:54:49.280 --> 1:54:52.720 It turns your your money, which you can take out 1:54:52.720 --> 1:54:56.400 at any time, into a different kind of thing, this loan, 1:54:56.600 --> 1:55:00.240 which can't be taken out immediately, right, and the have 1:55:00.280 --> 1:55:05.680 to make money. So this is called maturity transformation. This 1:55:05.800 --> 1:55:08.600 is a very simple concept. They have made very complicated. 1:55:09.080 --> 1:55:11.280 This is one of the core aspects of that definition 1:55:11.280 --> 1:55:12.480 I was talking about earlier. This is one of the 1:55:12.520 --> 1:55:15.480 four things in it. But you now understand this. It's 1:55:15.480 --> 1:55:17.880 not that complicated. It's it's it's takes short term, make 1:55:17.960 --> 1:55:20.880 long term, and we'll get to doing the reverse in 1:55:20.920 --> 1:55:21.360 a second. 1:55:21.640 --> 1:55:23.280 Oh, I don't think it works the other way. 1:55:23.760 --> 1:55:27.600 Yeah, it's gonna go so badly. It's gonna so badly. 1:55:27.680 --> 1:55:30.080 I don't know about bank, but just generally speaking, like 1:55:30.120 --> 1:55:33.280 in terms of time and like how like material reality works. 1:55:33.320 --> 1:55:34.760 I don't think it works the other way. 1:55:35.160 --> 1:55:38.720 It's it's not great. It's not great, Molly, it's not great. Okay, 1:55:38.760 --> 1:55:42.240 So okay. There is, however, a problem here, right, which 1:55:42.280 --> 1:55:45.160 is what happens if everyone tries to get their short 1:55:45.280 --> 1:55:46.800 term money back at the same time. 1:55:47.520 --> 1:55:48.000 We can't. 1:55:48.320 --> 1:55:51.440 Yeah, right, because you have deposit insurance. Yeah right, because 1:55:51.760 --> 1:55:55.480 the banks aren't holding short term cash. What they're holding 1:55:55.600 --> 1:55:59.160 is long term loans, and those loans like you can't 1:55:59.240 --> 1:56:04.040 pay someone alone. Well okay, actually, this entire the crux 1:56:04.080 --> 1:56:06.800 of this episode is they think that they did do that. Yeah, yes, 1:56:06.880 --> 1:56:08.640 and it blew up the entire world economy. 1:56:08.680 --> 1:56:11.200 But if but if I wanted forty thousand dollars out 1:56:11.240 --> 1:56:12.720 of my If I had a checking out, it was 1:56:12.760 --> 1:56:14.600 forty thousand dollars in it. Yeah, and they gave me 1:56:14.720 --> 1:56:17.360 my neighbor's mortgage as a prompt. That would it worked 1:56:17.360 --> 1:56:20.280 for me? That would have worked for no? Fuck that, no, no, no, no. 1:56:20.400 --> 1:56:22.440 You need you need you need, you need something that 1:56:22.440 --> 1:56:24.840 can buy a burger, and they're not giving you that. 1:56:25.720 --> 1:56:29.440 So okay, this is very very bad. If people try 1:56:29.440 --> 1:56:31.120 to do this, it is called a bank run. It 1:56:31.240 --> 1:56:32.120 is not good. 1:56:32.240 --> 1:56:32.720 It's bad. 1:56:32.920 --> 1:56:33.120 Yeah. 1:56:33.160 --> 1:56:35.160 And so this this blew up. 1:56:35.120 --> 1:56:38.760 The entire world economy so many goddamn times that eventually 1:56:39.320 --> 1:56:44.120 we got financial regulation. Now this this regulation requires banks 1:56:44.160 --> 1:56:46.920 to have money that is like actual cash they can 1:56:46.960 --> 1:56:50.960 hand you like right now, on hand at all times, 1:56:50.960 --> 1:56:53.320 and the government gets to and this is that's a 1:56:53.360 --> 1:56:55.560 little bit simification, but like, yeah, that's. 1:56:55.200 --> 1:56:57.400 How it works, right, like, and it's insured by the government. 1:56:57.760 --> 1:56:59.560 Yeah, I think the government will give you your money back 1:56:59.560 --> 1:57:01.480 if if the bank goes under up to like a 1:57:01.480 --> 1:57:06.000 certain amount of dollars fed Yep, this is this this 1:57:06.120 --> 1:57:08.000 that's that's what that means, right, the government will give 1:57:08.040 --> 1:57:11.320 you your money back. But also there's a there's a 1:57:11.400 --> 1:57:13.800 trade off to this. So this is a massive benefit 1:57:13.840 --> 1:57:15.440 for the banks, right, the fact the fact that if 1:57:15.480 --> 1:57:17.440 they go under, all of their assets will be repaid 1:57:17.440 --> 1:57:19.920 by the government. It's a it's a massive benefit for 1:57:19.960 --> 1:57:22.000 them because it means that putting your money in the 1:57:22.040 --> 1:57:22.760 bank is like safe. 1:57:22.840 --> 1:57:25.080 Yeah. I love that for me, right, Yeah. 1:57:24.880 --> 1:57:28.160 It's good. Now, the cost to the banks is that 1:57:28.240 --> 1:57:30.400 the Feds get to see their balance sheet, right, the 1:57:30.400 --> 1:57:32.440 Feds get to see what they're doing with their fucking money, 1:57:32.440 --> 1:57:35.080 and they get to make sure that these banks aren't 1:57:35.120 --> 1:57:36.280 doing insane shit. 1:57:36.480 --> 1:57:38.800 Okay, that makes sense because they're insurance. 1:57:38.880 --> 1:57:42.560 Yeah, and that like they're not doing like unbelievably risky 1:57:42.760 --> 1:57:45.640 awful ship. And also that they're actually holding enough money 1:57:45.640 --> 1:57:47.160 to be able to pay people out right. 1:57:47.240 --> 1:57:49.440 Okay, so far, so good. I I understand bank. 1:57:50.240 --> 1:57:56.040 Yeah. Now, Shadow Banking boldly asked the question, Okay, but 1:57:56.080 --> 1:57:59.560 what if you did all of the banking backwards, no 1:57:59.560 --> 1:58:03.680 one had access to the books, and the governments will 1:58:03.680 --> 1:58:06.880 only pay you back if the entire world economy looks 1:58:06.880 --> 1:58:08.040 like it's going to die. 1:58:08.480 --> 1:58:11.160 I feel like at that point the government should just 1:58:11.160 --> 1:58:11.760 just step back. 1:58:11.880 --> 1:58:16.080 And here's the thing, here's the thing, right, I I 1:58:16.080 --> 1:58:18.400 I yeah, Like I'm so dowt with this, Like yeah, 1:58:18.400 --> 1:58:20.320 I don't know. Fuck it, Like every single one of 1:58:20.360 --> 1:58:22.720 your motherfuckers is gonna pay this off by working as 1:58:22.720 --> 1:58:25.840 a barista for thirty years, Like fuck you. But the 1:58:25.880 --> 1:58:28.520 government was like, nah, we want like we want capitalism 1:58:28.560 --> 1:58:29.160 to keep working. 1:58:29.280 --> 1:58:31.960 Make every hedge fund manager work at a waffle house. 1:58:32.080 --> 1:58:44.200 Yeah, fuck them. 1:58:44.320 --> 1:58:46.400 Okay, I'm gonna say something and then I'm gonna. 1:58:46.200 --> 1:58:47.680 Make a disclaim. 1:58:48.080 --> 1:58:51.040 So the kind of shadow banks that did two thousand 1:58:51.080 --> 1:58:55.880 and eight work in the opposite direction. They start with debt, 1:58:56.160 --> 1:58:59.080 they take that debt, and they turn that debt into 1:58:59.160 --> 1:59:01.600 like cash, right. 1:59:02.160 --> 1:59:02.840 Can I do that? 1:59:03.320 --> 1:59:03.400 No? 1:59:05.200 --> 1:59:06.960 Does that work for me at my hed No? 1:59:07.760 --> 1:59:09.960 So okay, And I also want to mention there's a 1:59:09.960 --> 1:59:12.000 bunch of other kinds of shadow banks. The kind of 1:59:12.040 --> 1:59:14.920 shadow bank that's going under right now is not really this. 1:59:15.720 --> 1:59:18.320 The kind of shadow bank that's like exploding right now 1:59:18.440 --> 1:59:21.040 is a kind of shadow bank that's like what if 1:59:21.040 --> 1:59:24.880 a bank that wasn't a bank gave a completely unregulated 1:59:24.960 --> 1:59:29.400 loan with secret terms to a corporation, And that's the 1:59:29.400 --> 1:59:32.400 one that's going under right now, but for a long 1:59:32.440 --> 1:59:34.280 long time, the kind of shadow bank that was really 1:59:34.280 --> 1:59:36.800 important to the global economy. And this is still like 1:59:36.880 --> 1:59:39.920 a massive portion of how all of the economic system 1:59:39.960 --> 1:59:43.480 works is these ones where you're trying to take debt 1:59:43.600 --> 1:59:47.720 and turn it into something you can trade for cash. So, okay, 1:59:48.000 --> 1:59:50.800 you take debt, right, you start off with a mortgage. Okay, 1:59:50.880 --> 1:59:54.080 so these mortgagees pay out over the extremely long term, right, 1:59:54.480 --> 1:59:56.959 but you want to be able to trade this mortgage 1:59:57.000 --> 2:00:01.000 for cash. Right, And this is a process called securitization. 2:00:01.880 --> 2:00:04.200 Turning this mortgage into something you can sell for cash 2:00:04.280 --> 2:00:08.600 is making it into what's called a security. So now 2:00:08.720 --> 2:00:11.280 what happens right when his packaged this is into a 2:00:11.320 --> 2:00:13.960 security when there's a securitization process. And then like the 2:00:14.000 --> 2:00:17.040 regular bank, the regular bank sends the mortgage to the 2:00:17.080 --> 2:00:21.560 shadow bank, and the shadow bank like does like stuff 2:00:21.600 --> 2:00:24.520 and turns it into a security. And now what this 2:00:24.600 --> 2:00:26.960 means is that instead if you who paid the mortgage 2:00:27.000 --> 2:00:29.200 owing money to the bank, you own it to the 2:00:29.240 --> 2:00:31.800 shadow bank or whoever the fuck the shadow bank sells 2:00:31.800 --> 2:00:31.960 it to. 2:00:32.120 --> 2:00:35.760 Right, Okay, so the real bank is involved. The real 2:00:35.800 --> 2:00:37.160 bank is involved. 2:00:36.800 --> 2:00:38.920 Yes, oh yes, the real bank is making so much 2:00:38.920 --> 2:00:40.960 money off of this is this is why two thousand 2:00:40.960 --> 2:00:41.520 and eight happened. 2:00:41.760 --> 2:00:44.840 Oh, because Wells Fargo did this with everybody's mortgage. Oh yeah, 2:00:44.840 --> 2:00:47.040 oh yeah, okay, because I couldn't figure out because said, 2:00:47.040 --> 2:00:48.120 this is a two thousand names, and I was like, 2:00:48.160 --> 2:00:50.160 I thought, Wells Fargo did that, that's a real bank. 2:00:50.440 --> 2:00:52.440 Oh the real bank was shadow banking. 2:00:52.560 --> 2:00:56.360 The real bank figured out a way to sell their mortgages. 2:00:56.880 --> 2:00:59.440 And it's gonna get much worse as we go through this. 2:00:59.800 --> 2:01:02.640 But that's what causes this, right, is like turning is 2:01:02.720 --> 2:01:07.160 turning these mortgages into these like securities and like these 2:01:07.200 --> 2:01:11.320 like collateralized debt obligations and these like special packaged bullshit 2:01:11.320 --> 2:01:13.440 that you could sell to someone. So the way I 2:01:13.440 --> 2:01:16.040 would describe this is it's like, do you know how 2:01:16.080 --> 2:01:16.920 a bond works? 2:01:17.200 --> 2:01:18.760 Honestly, Mia, I do not. 2:01:20.680 --> 2:01:23.720 Okay, let's let's do this. We can we can do this, okay. 2:01:23.760 --> 2:01:26.480 So the kind of bond that you are normally likely 2:01:26.520 --> 2:01:29.920 to encounter is a government bond. Yeah, okay, So you 2:01:29.920 --> 2:01:33.680 you pay the government money to buy the bond, and 2:01:33.800 --> 2:01:36.200 what the bond says is, at a certain point in time, 2:01:36.800 --> 2:01:39.040 you hand it back to the government and they pay 2:01:39.080 --> 2:01:39.720 you more money. 2:01:39.800 --> 2:01:41.120 Right, it's like a promise for later. 2:01:41.440 --> 2:01:44.840 Yeah. Right, So it's it's basically a loan, but it's 2:01:44.880 --> 2:01:48.680 alone in a form where like the government's technically like 2:01:48.800 --> 2:01:51.760 selling it. And and then the other thing about bonds, 2:01:51.800 --> 2:01:54.600 right is if you hand the bond to someone else, 2:01:55.400 --> 2:01:57.040 well okay, I mean this is technically bare bonds, but 2:01:57.040 --> 2:02:00.680 like you you can then give the bond to someone 2:02:00.680 --> 2:02:02.960 else and now and now if they give it back 2:02:02.960 --> 2:02:04.920 to the government, they get the money in like ten years, 2:02:04.920 --> 2:02:05.880 they get the money. 2:02:05.640 --> 2:02:07.000 Right, right, Okay, I get that. 2:02:07.360 --> 2:02:09.320 And you can sell these things. And this is what 2:02:09.360 --> 2:02:12.680 these people are doing with mortgages. 2:02:12.840 --> 2:02:15.440 That's not as like secured as like a government bond. 2:02:15.440 --> 2:02:17.080 Because if I had one hundred dollars government, like, if 2:02:17.080 --> 2:02:19.400 I have one hundred dollar bearers bond, I know for 2:02:19.520 --> 2:02:21.600 a fact on the date on the bond, it's gonna 2:02:21.600 --> 2:02:22.600 be worth one hundred dollars. 2:02:22.720 --> 2:02:24.360 Yeah, they're gonna pay out, right. 2:02:24.400 --> 2:02:28.400 But if it's mortgage mortgage, the government's gonna pay it. 2:02:28.440 --> 2:02:31.200 But like the mortgage, the governy has them work. That's 2:02:31.240 --> 2:02:34.080 not yep, that's not real. That's not money. Nope, yep, 2:02:34.200 --> 2:02:35.880 that's like that's a that's a promise. But like my 2:02:35.920 --> 2:02:36.960 hand it's behind my back. 2:02:37.320 --> 2:02:40.560 Yeah, it's it's a shit show. And this whole process 2:02:40.720 --> 2:02:42.480 is the largest sort of I'm not sure if it's 2:02:42.480 --> 2:02:45.160 actually the largest that I would need to actually get 2:02:45.480 --> 2:02:48.920 I've never I haven't seen in death breakdown sectorially, but like. 2:02:48.880 --> 2:02:49.760 None of this is real. 2:02:49.800 --> 2:02:52.360 You could just say whatever, this this is one of 2:02:52.400 --> 2:02:55.600 the most important kind of shadow banks because in order 2:02:55.640 --> 2:02:59.000 to turn this mortgage into security, the moment you do that, 2:02:59.080 --> 2:03:01.960 you do this by creating what's called a special purpose vehicle, 2:03:02.080 --> 2:03:04.960 or someone else creates one. It's called a special purpose vehicle. Yeah, 2:03:04.960 --> 2:03:06.960 it's it's a nightmare. It's a nightmare. 2:03:07.680 --> 2:03:09.720 Gonna I'm gonna put this mortgage on a roller coaster. 2:03:10.080 --> 2:03:13.560 Yeah, it's fucking ridiculous. Right, it's a special purpose vehicle. 2:03:13.840 --> 2:03:16.480 Is it does a loopy loop. But the moment you 2:03:16.520 --> 2:03:18.400 create one of these, that the moment you create one 2:03:18.400 --> 2:03:22.080 of these like security mortgages, right, that's a shadow bank. 2:03:22.440 --> 2:03:23.960 You've created a shadow bank, right. 2:03:23.800 --> 2:03:25.800 Because that's not real banking. That's shadow bank. 2:03:26.000 --> 2:03:28.480 Yep. Because because you're creating another entity that is not 2:03:28.560 --> 2:03:30.680 a bank that's doing the banking stuff. 2:03:30.960 --> 2:03:32.880 I thought that the banking and the shadow banking were 2:03:32.920 --> 2:03:36.360 like separate things, right, because it's shadow. It's like they're 2:03:36.360 --> 2:03:41.160 doing non they're all in. If the bank is just 2:03:41.240 --> 2:03:44.360 a shadow banking, I would I'm stupid, but I would 2:03:44.360 --> 2:03:45.200 call that a crime. 2:03:45.800 --> 2:03:48.040 This is this is another thing that costs two thousand 2:03:48.040 --> 2:03:50.080 and eight because a bunch of what was isn't a 2:03:50.080 --> 2:03:54.080 crime because our country is run by the bourgeoisie. Molly 2:03:54.200 --> 2:03:55.480 that that's why it's not a crime. 2:03:55.640 --> 2:03:57.200 You're just telling me this for the first time. 2:03:58.120 --> 2:04:01.320 Yeah, it's bad. So, so what happened? What happened in 2:04:01.320 --> 2:04:02.840 two thousand and eight. One of the things that happened, 2:04:02.920 --> 2:04:05.320 right is so all of these regulators are supposed to 2:04:05.360 --> 2:04:07.640 be looking at the balance sheets of these companies. 2:04:07.320 --> 2:04:09.600 But they're hiding stuff off the books. 2:04:09.880 --> 2:04:12.320 Yeah, they were hiding these things in these like special 2:04:12.320 --> 2:04:14.760 purpose vehicles, like in these like shadow banks. 2:04:14.800 --> 2:04:17.160 They didn't open the trunks on the special purpose vehicles. 2:04:17.440 --> 2:04:19.160 Yeah, so no one could see the fucking dead bodies 2:04:19.160 --> 2:04:21.320 in the trunks of the vehicles because they weren't on 2:04:21.400 --> 2:04:23.480 the balance sheet that like the government had access to. 2:04:23.720 --> 2:04:25.240 What's the point of the balance sheet if you don't 2:04:25.240 --> 2:04:26.400 put the whole balance on it. 2:04:27.640 --> 2:04:31.280 I'm fucking I don't know. And this is like legitimately 2:04:31.480 --> 2:04:34.680 when you read the accounts of like why shadow making 2:04:34.720 --> 2:04:36.720 US exploded by the way it's exploded in two thousand 2:04:36.760 --> 2:04:38.960 and eight, it's like way bigger exploded. 2:04:38.480 --> 2:04:41.640 Like in popularity or like exploded as in like distrubularity. 2:04:41.800 --> 2:04:43.480 There's so much there's so much more of it. There's 2:04:43.520 --> 2:04:44.800 so much more of it because. 2:04:44.600 --> 2:04:47.160 Also, oh, because it went so well, it went so 2:04:47.240 --> 2:04:48.440 well in two thousand and eight, and now. 2:04:48.400 --> 2:04:51.040 We're because here's the thing. After two thousand and eight, 2:04:51.120 --> 2:04:54.080 we got like a little tiny bit of banking regulation 2:04:54.440 --> 2:04:57.520 and the banks lost their fucking minds, and so more 2:04:57.560 --> 2:05:00.880 and more money went into all of these unhidden shadow 2:05:00.920 --> 2:05:01.440 making things. 2:05:01.520 --> 2:05:03.520 Okay, but so like when a toddler has a tantrum, 2:05:03.560 --> 2:05:05.240 you don't give them a billion dollars. 2:05:05.640 --> 2:05:08.200 When the shadow banks went under, these things were not 2:05:08.200 --> 2:05:10.080 backed by the government. The government bailed them out anyways. 2:05:10.120 --> 2:05:12.120 Yeah, they didn't have to do that, Nope. So they 2:05:12.160 --> 2:05:14.560 really they learned their lesson. They really learned their lesson 2:05:14.600 --> 2:05:15.080 this time. 2:05:15.360 --> 2:05:17.760 Yeah, Like they bailed out these banks and they fucking 2:05:17.760 --> 2:05:20.560 sold you out, and like you know, like and one 2:05:20.600 --> 2:05:22.480 of the things that I think people have forgotten was 2:05:22.480 --> 2:05:25.320 there's this thing called robocalls during the Obama administration. Right, 2:05:25.800 --> 2:05:29.080 part of how the financial recovery happened was that all 2:05:29.160 --> 2:05:33.440 these banks would like go to courthouses, right, and they 2:05:33.480 --> 2:05:37.560 would just repossess mortgages on Mass. Oh. And they had 2:05:37.560 --> 2:05:39.560 like a robot that was like signed it. It would 2:05:39.600 --> 2:05:42.240 just sign like a blank check sign off on all 2:05:42.280 --> 2:05:45.320 these mortgages that were supposed to be underwater. And they 2:05:45.320 --> 2:05:47.880 would just steal people's houses, people who were on top 2:05:47.920 --> 2:05:49.800 of their payments, people who liked to know money. They 2:05:49.840 --> 2:05:52.680 would just take their houses. And this happened on Mass 2:05:52.680 --> 2:05:55.520 And this is like how the banks recovered, was they 2:05:55.560 --> 2:05:56.520 stole everyone's houses. 2:05:56.560 --> 2:05:59.280 And that's a crime, right, It should have been a crime. 2:06:00.120 --> 2:06:02.040 It was illegal. It didn't matter though. 2:06:01.920 --> 2:06:04.680 Because everything you're describing to me as a crime. 2:06:04.520 --> 2:06:06.880 It's so nightmarish. Well, it's here the thing most of 2:06:06.880 --> 2:06:09.280 this of them describing is not a crime. This was 2:06:09.360 --> 2:06:10.280 actually a crime. 2:06:10.400 --> 2:06:12.360 But why is nobody in jail? 2:06:12.640 --> 2:06:15.120 Because Barack Obama went up in front of these people 2:06:15.200 --> 2:06:17.120 and said, I am the only thing standing between you 2:06:17.200 --> 2:06:19.560 and the guillotines. I'm pretty sure that's a direct quote. 2:06:19.600 --> 2:06:21.440 And why didn't he bring the guillotine with. 2:06:21.440 --> 2:06:23.839 Him because he wants the capital assistant to continue. 2:06:23.920 --> 2:06:29.280 I mean, question, Obama, I'm just upset. 2:06:29.400 --> 2:06:32.480 It's not good. Okay, So let's let's get you another 2:06:32.560 --> 2:06:34.400 question that you asked, which is why why would you 2:06:34.480 --> 2:06:36.360 do this? Why would you do this. 2:06:36.600 --> 2:06:37.440 To make money? 2:06:37.720 --> 2:06:41.240 Yes, but it's actually more complicated than that. Oh okay. 2:06:41.280 --> 2:06:44.600 So on the one hand, these assets, you know, a mortgage, 2:06:44.640 --> 2:06:47.200 does make more money than just putting your money in 2:06:47.240 --> 2:06:50.240 the bank. Right, that's like the basis of banking is 2:06:50.280 --> 2:06:52.360 that they can use your money that's sitting in the 2:06:52.360 --> 2:06:54.200 bank and getting interested, and then they make more money 2:06:54.200 --> 2:06:55.160 by spending it elsewhere. 2:06:55.440 --> 2:06:57.360 But so they're just doing this because they hate us, 2:06:57.560 --> 2:07:00.960 not just to make money. No, there is an actual explanation. 2:07:01.080 --> 2:07:01.920 There's a third reason. 2:07:02.480 --> 2:07:05.280 So then why why would you ever have your money 2:07:05.360 --> 2:07:08.040 in a bank or like buy something like safe like 2:07:08.080 --> 2:07:11.040 government bonds you can sell really quickly, right, Why why 2:07:11.160 --> 2:07:15.560 would you ever want that? And the reason why is 2:07:15.560 --> 2:07:16.720 something called liquidity? 2:07:17.280 --> 2:07:17.440 Right? 2:07:17.480 --> 2:07:19.200 You want to be able to spend the money, yes, 2:07:19.320 --> 2:07:21.560 rather than wait thirty years for it to get paid back. 2:07:21.760 --> 2:07:24.600 Yes. Liquidity is just how easy is it to turn 2:07:24.880 --> 2:07:26.240 whatever you own into cash? 2:07:26.360 --> 2:07:26.520 Right? 2:07:26.640 --> 2:07:28.680 For real money, because most of it we're talking about 2:07:28.800 --> 2:07:30.840 is not money. It's the idea of money. 2:07:31.720 --> 2:07:35.640 Yes, so, so liquidity is is literally it's the burger test, 2:07:35.720 --> 2:07:37.400 right can you buy a burger with this? 2:07:37.640 --> 2:07:38.400 Can I eat this? 2:07:39.320 --> 2:07:39.640 Money? 2:07:39.720 --> 2:07:41.920 Is like the most liquid asset, right because you can? 2:07:41.960 --> 2:07:43.440 You can? You can turn this into a burger? 2:07:43.560 --> 2:07:45.440 Right, So liquidity is the only part of this that's 2:07:45.440 --> 2:07:47.320 actually money. Everything else is not money. 2:07:47.760 --> 2:07:51.560 Yeah, Well, liquidity is the measure of how money is it? Basically, 2:07:52.000 --> 2:07:54.080 like how easy is it to turn this into burger? 2:07:54.400 --> 2:07:59.360 Is this a special vehicle securitization? It's not real mea. 2:07:59.760 --> 2:08:03.120 No, it's fake as shit, right, this is not that complicated, 2:08:03.240 --> 2:08:05.600 right if you if it's like like you can you 2:08:05.640 --> 2:08:08.600 can buy a burger with ten dollars? Yeah right, that's liquid. 2:08:08.680 --> 2:08:10.280 Actually you kind of can't these days. 2:08:10.680 --> 2:08:17.520 I know, I look, I look. I imagine a world 2:08:17.560 --> 2:08:19.520 where you can buy a burger for ten dollars. 2:08:20.680 --> 2:08:22.080 Imagine imagine a burger. 2:08:21.880 --> 2:08:25.800 Yes, imagine a burger that's purchasable. Now, what you can't 2:08:25.840 --> 2:08:29.560 buy a burger with is like the ten bucks that 2:08:30.000 --> 2:08:33.080 a guy you work with owes you for buying him. 2:08:32.920 --> 2:08:35.120 A burger depends on how well you know the burger guy. 2:08:35.880 --> 2:08:40.600 Yeah, but that's that's where things get bad. Yeah, right, now, 2:08:40.680 --> 2:08:42.680 the thing is right, right, So the ten bucks the 2:08:42.720 --> 2:08:46.520 guy you work with, like owes, you not liquid. You 2:08:46.520 --> 2:08:48.080 don't have the money in your hands, and if you 2:08:48.120 --> 2:08:49.960 want to get it from him, you have to like 2:08:50.480 --> 2:08:52.320 go ask him for the money, and maybe he has 2:08:52.360 --> 2:08:54.520 ten bucks and maybe he doesn't, right, at which point 2:08:54.600 --> 2:08:57.040 you can't get your ten dollars back until he has 2:08:57.080 --> 2:08:57.480 the money. 2:08:57.520 --> 2:09:00.240 But that but then ten dollars that I'm theoretically code 2:09:00.360 --> 2:09:05.120 is an asset though I have not a debt. Yes, okay, yes, 2:09:05.600 --> 2:09:06.360 it's stupid. 2:09:06.480 --> 2:09:09.720 Now loans loans are not liquid assets, right, and they're 2:09:09.720 --> 2:09:11.520 not liquid assets because you can't get the money back 2:09:11.720 --> 2:09:12.360 like immediately. 2:09:12.640 --> 2:09:14.560 So I don't have ten dollars I can spend, but 2:09:14.600 --> 2:09:17.080 on paper, I do have ten theoretical dollars. 2:09:17.360 --> 2:09:19.280 Yeah right, And this is also like most of what 2:09:19.360 --> 2:09:22.080 billionaire money is, hey, correct, Like most of their money 2:09:22.160 --> 2:09:24.640 is like in like a stock or some shit or 2:09:24.680 --> 2:09:26.160 like it's weird fake money. 2:09:26.320 --> 2:09:28.600 Like theoretically they could access this amount of money, but 2:09:28.600 --> 2:09:30.320 they don't have it. Yeah, it's not real. 2:09:30.600 --> 2:09:33.680 Now, Okay, there is this question, So why why would 2:09:33.760 --> 2:09:35.960 you keep your money in fake money instead of real money. 2:09:36.200 --> 2:09:38.960 And the answer is that it gives you more money 2:09:39.000 --> 2:09:42.680 back because say you're an asshole, right, and you're charging 2:09:42.840 --> 2:09:45.440 interest on your coworker for that burger loan. 2:09:45.400 --> 2:09:47.560 Right, So that ten dollars is actually worth more than 2:09:47.560 --> 2:09:50.120 ten dollars money. So the ten dollars that I don't 2:09:50.160 --> 2:09:52.440 have is theoretically worth Twell. 2:09:52.440 --> 2:09:54.880 You're worth more. Yeah, it's worth more than the money 2:09:54.920 --> 2:09:55.400 that you do have. 2:09:55.520 --> 2:09:58.560 I can get cheese on the burger, yes, right. 2:10:00.080 --> 2:10:02.560 And this is this is like the fundamental thing of 2:10:02.560 --> 2:10:04.720 the banking system, Like one of them is that I 2:10:04.800 --> 2:10:08.040 liquid assets or like assets that you that aren't money 2:10:08.080 --> 2:10:09.839 are worth more than money. 2:10:10.560 --> 2:10:13.000 I guess. Like when I put a small amount of 2:10:13.000 --> 2:10:16.640 my savings into a CD, that's what I'm doing, except 2:10:16.640 --> 2:10:18.600 normal style they're doing it weird. 2:10:18.920 --> 2:10:21.080 Yeah, basically because that's like. 2:10:21.040 --> 2:10:23.840 An I liquid asset that I'm I'm I'm trading the 2:10:23.840 --> 2:10:27.120 ability to access that liquidity for the potential of more 2:10:27.160 --> 2:10:27.640 money later. 2:10:27.680 --> 2:10:29.080 Wait, so when you say, do you mean like a 2:10:29.200 --> 2:10:31.080 like a physical like a disc, like a CD. 2:10:31.480 --> 2:10:33.960 No, a CD like at the bank, Like yeah, yeah, 2:10:34.120 --> 2:10:37.400 like the investment product, Yeah sure, yeah, yes, sorry, I 2:10:37.440 --> 2:10:39.960 was like, no, I'm not talking about buying compact disc. 2:10:40.200 --> 2:10:42.520 I would just leave at five am this time. 2:10:43.040 --> 2:10:45.120 It's been ever heard of it. 2:10:45.320 --> 2:10:49.440 Wow, there's there's actually a really an annoying thing researching 2:10:49.440 --> 2:10:52.880 this episode because there's like, so CDOs are like a 2:10:52.920 --> 2:10:54.680 type of loan that will kind of get you in 2:10:54.680 --> 2:10:57.080 a bit. But there's also a tech position called CDO. 2:10:57.560 --> 2:10:59.560 It's like chief something. 2:10:59.240 --> 2:11:01.200 Office officer who cares. 2:11:01.360 --> 2:11:03.400 Yeah, whatever the fuck? Right, But like when you're trying 2:11:03.440 --> 2:11:07.080 to search for stuff that's like about CDOs, right, the 2:11:07.120 --> 2:11:11.040 other one keeps coming up. I hate it. Okay, okay, 2:11:11.080 --> 2:11:14.560 locking in, locking in right, lock and load. Now what 2:11:14.720 --> 2:11:17.400 if you both want into more money and also the 2:11:17.440 --> 2:11:18.520 ability to buy a burger? 2:11:18.960 --> 2:11:22.440 I guess I would uh probably break one of Carl's fingers. 2:11:23.040 --> 2:11:25.080 This is the guy that owes me the ten dollars, Carl. 2:11:25.400 --> 2:11:29.240 Yeah, but even then it's hard to even that's like, 2:11:29.800 --> 2:11:31.240 this is too hard for these people. 2:11:31.360 --> 2:11:33.280 I would go to Carl's house and kick him out 2:11:33.320 --> 2:11:33.520 of it. 2:11:34.040 --> 2:11:36.360 Well yeah, so, but the other thing is like, you 2:11:36.440 --> 2:11:39.120 are not very rich, okay these people. If you are 2:11:39.560 --> 2:11:42.880 really really rich, I am talking like billionaires, maybe like 2:11:42.960 --> 2:11:46.360 high high class multimillionaires. Well you can go to a 2:11:46.400 --> 2:11:47.040 shadow bank. 2:11:47.720 --> 2:11:50.720 Oh right, you can get a loan based on the loan. 2:11:51.200 --> 2:11:53.400 No, well you're saying. So the thing is that you 2:11:53.600 --> 2:11:57.120 have money, right, but you want to turn your money 2:11:57.160 --> 2:11:59.880 into more money, like you have like an actual cash, 2:12:00.280 --> 2:12:03.440 right like you are you are, for example, a pension fund. 2:12:03.560 --> 2:12:06.400 No I'm not. You have a shit ton of cash. 2:12:06.600 --> 2:12:10.040 Or imagine imagine a pension fund. Right, This is okay. 2:12:10.080 --> 2:12:11.880 This is also really hard because it used to be 2:12:11.920 --> 2:12:14.320 easier to explain this because like we used to live 2:12:14.320 --> 2:12:16.880 in a world where people had pension funds and had mortgages, 2:12:17.280 --> 2:12:20.120 and now we no longer have pension funds or mortgages. 2:12:21.040 --> 2:12:23.000 I live in an apartment and I will always live 2:12:23.040 --> 2:12:23.680 in an apartment. 2:12:24.320 --> 2:12:24.600 Yeah. 2:12:24.720 --> 2:12:27.800 No, and still okay, So, like imagine imagine a pension fund, 2:12:27.880 --> 2:12:30.320 right you you have a shit ton of money from 2:12:30.360 --> 2:12:33.880 your members paying into the fund, but it's cash. You 2:12:33.920 --> 2:12:36.320 need to turn that cash into more money. But also 2:12:36.840 --> 2:12:39.400 you're a pension fund, so you constantly have to take 2:12:39.440 --> 2:12:41.960 money back out in order to pay the people who 2:12:42.000 --> 2:12:43.080 are retiring. 2:12:42.680 --> 2:12:43.680 To pay old right. 2:12:43.760 --> 2:12:45.880 Well, yeah, and this is also a thing that like, 2:12:45.920 --> 2:12:47.800 you know, if you're just like a rich person. Sometimes 2:12:47.840 --> 2:12:49.400 you want your A lot of times you want your 2:12:49.440 --> 2:12:52.840 money in assets that are like you can you can 2:12:52.880 --> 2:12:54.760 turn back into real money, but also make you a 2:12:54.760 --> 2:12:55.560 shit ton of money. 2:12:56.160 --> 2:12:57.920 Right, They need to sort of revolve a little bit 2:12:58.000 --> 2:13:00.920 theyd be like yeah, I don't know, like a jello 2:13:01.120 --> 2:13:02.200 like partially liquid. 2:13:02.480 --> 2:13:06.160 Yeah, And this is this is what the shadow banks do, right, 2:13:06.200 --> 2:13:08.640 because the thing that you can buy is one of 2:13:08.680 --> 2:13:12.160 those mortgages they've turned into like a security. Right, you 2:13:12.160 --> 2:13:15.200 can go buy someone else's debt, huh, but because it's 2:13:15.200 --> 2:13:18.520 a magic security now, and these are called mortgage backed securities. 2:13:18.560 --> 2:13:21.320 And again if you're to remember, yeah, anything of anything 2:13:21.360 --> 2:13:23.120 about two thousand and eight, that's what blew up the 2:13:23.160 --> 2:13:25.480 whole economy, is these mortgage back securities. 2:13:25.600 --> 2:13:27.920 Yeah, I've heard of that because it was bad, yep, 2:13:28.400 --> 2:13:30.680 terrible idea. And so we're still doing that. 2:13:31.120 --> 2:13:35.480 Oh yeah, it's I mean if it's less specifically, the 2:13:35.520 --> 2:13:37.720 mortgage back ones are less bad. So they started doing 2:13:37.800 --> 2:13:43.120 it with like commercial retail loans, which is incredible, great, 2:13:43.520 --> 2:13:46.600 so that's really fun. They're also doing with other unhidden 2:13:46.600 --> 2:13:49.200 shit that we're gonna do like next episode. And what 2:13:49.240 --> 2:13:52.000 these people are really buying. Aren't just these Like you're 2:13:52.000 --> 2:13:54.280 not buying like one person's mortgage, right. 2:13:54.160 --> 2:13:55.840 Right, they're like pooled and like bundled. 2:13:56.440 --> 2:13:58.560 Yeah, yeah, they're like they bundle them all together and 2:13:58.600 --> 2:14:02.280 then you you buy the rights to a percentage of 2:14:02.440 --> 2:14:02.880 the pool. 2:14:03.400 --> 2:14:05.760 It's not like when you sponsor like an elephant in 2:14:05.760 --> 2:14:07.480 Africa or something, and they send you a picture of 2:14:07.520 --> 2:14:09.520 like a specific element, or they don't send you they 2:14:09.520 --> 2:14:11.760 listen to a picture of the family you're arming. No, 2:14:12.800 --> 2:14:14.640 these are the Joneses. You own their fucking house. 2:14:14.720 --> 2:14:17.920 Yeah, it's it's it's it's it's it's a shit show. No, well, 2:14:18.360 --> 2:14:20.040 I mean eventually you might have to go figure out 2:14:20.080 --> 2:14:22.480 who that is because you like own whatever the fuck 2:14:22.520 --> 2:14:25.920 percentage of like the mortgages or whatever. But like, okay, 2:14:26.360 --> 2:14:29.720 so these are these are just like someone else's debt 2:14:29.880 --> 2:14:32.800 that you're buying, and that the people who can do 2:14:32.840 --> 2:14:35.880 this are, you know, people who have billions of dollars. 2:14:35.920 --> 2:14:37.640 It's not you, the listener. And by the way, if you, 2:14:37.640 --> 2:14:40.360 the listener, have billions of dollars lying around for some reason. 2:14:40.320 --> 2:14:41.680 Can I have some please? 2:14:41.800 --> 2:14:44.080 Yes, please please give me some of them so I 2:14:44.120 --> 2:14:47.920 can house Like literally every trans woman and like transperson 2:14:48.000 --> 2:14:49.760 I can, I can do it, Like, please give me 2:14:49.800 --> 2:14:51.640 your billions of dollars so I can. I can achieve 2:14:51.640 --> 2:14:54.320 this goal. But like we're talking about you know, like 2:14:54.320 --> 2:14:57.200 like the Pension Fund of California, we're talking about mega corporations, 2:14:57.200 --> 2:14:59.440 insurance companies, the kinds of things. I can actually buy these, 2:14:59.520 --> 2:15:03.520 like you know. Now, this is where we get to 2:15:03.640 --> 2:15:06.080 one of the other problems, which is that these things 2:15:06.120 --> 2:15:12.160 are not insured. So yeah, what do you do in 2:15:12.280 --> 2:15:14.160 order to try to make it less risky? What do 2:15:14.240 --> 2:15:16.800 you get if you can't pay the loan back? And 2:15:16.880 --> 2:15:18.240 this is what's called collateral. 2:15:18.320 --> 2:15:19.840 I don't know, swift punch in the nuts. 2:15:20.120 --> 2:15:23.400 Oh no, they take your house, right, Yes, that's supposed 2:15:23.440 --> 2:15:25.760 to be the thing. So okay, the way that like 2:15:25.840 --> 2:15:30.600 shadow banking loans tend to work is that they they 2:15:30.640 --> 2:15:33.880 have collateral, right, so you you give them something or 2:15:34.160 --> 2:15:37.680 or it's either you give them something directly or it's 2:15:37.720 --> 2:15:39.920 like if you promise to give them the thing. Yeah, 2:15:39.960 --> 2:15:43.040 and giving it to them directly is like a repo 2:15:43.120 --> 2:15:45.080 market thing. We're not really going to get into those 2:15:45.400 --> 2:15:47.680 right now, but this does. That's like that's also a 2:15:47.760 --> 2:15:51.000 kind of shadow bank. But there's a problem, right, which is, 2:15:51.480 --> 2:15:54.680 what if the thing that you're paying, you're paying as collateral, Like, 2:15:54.720 --> 2:15:58.880 what if your house becomes worthless? And what if? What if? Mully? 2:15:59.040 --> 2:16:02.000 And it's completely uninsured and there's no way to fix 2:16:02.040 --> 2:16:03.680 it because I don't even have anything to give. 2:16:03.560 --> 2:16:08.240 You now, Now, Molly, what if? And this is purely hypothetical, 2:16:08.360 --> 2:16:10.520 It could never happen in the real world, Molly. But 2:16:10.640 --> 2:16:15.880 what if somehow, someone someone decided to use the same 2:16:16.160 --> 2:16:20.280 house as collateral for multiple different securities. 2:16:20.600 --> 2:16:21.760 Well, that could never go wrong. 2:16:22.120 --> 2:16:25.040 What if, Mollie. They made a word for this that 2:16:25.200 --> 2:16:27.680 is so complicated I am not going to attempt to 2:16:27.680 --> 2:16:29.720 read it on the show. What if, Molly? 2:16:30.000 --> 2:16:31.200 What is it in German or something? 2:16:31.240 --> 2:16:33.240 No, it's like it's just like this, it's like the 2:16:33.400 --> 2:16:35.480 it's like the length of my head. It's like hyper 2:16:35.840 --> 2:16:39.560 hyper something bullshit. Like I refuse to say it because 2:16:39.680 --> 2:16:43.280 it is just like a completely like financed goal bullshit 2:16:43.400 --> 2:16:44.160 term they made up. 2:16:44.600 --> 2:16:47.920 So, but the point of the point of collateral is 2:16:47.959 --> 2:16:51.080 that you can use it to pay off the loan 2:16:51.200 --> 2:16:54.320 if you default on And so that literally won't work 2:16:54.400 --> 2:16:57.840 more than once, because once I eat the burger, once 2:16:57.879 --> 2:17:00.920 I eat the burger. It's bad. Yeah, and this is 2:17:00.959 --> 2:17:02.720 one of the things that happened in two thousand years. 2:17:02.760 --> 2:17:05.520 I can't promise I can't promise ten guys my burger. 2:17:05.800 --> 2:17:08.959 Now, Molly, here's the amazing thing here, right, because but 2:17:09.160 --> 2:17:11.600 the advantage for these companies, right is like, if you're 2:17:11.640 --> 2:17:13.520 the bank that has the mortgage, suddenly you can spin 2:17:13.600 --> 2:17:16.520 your mortgage off into like multiple securities that you can sell. 2:17:16.600 --> 2:17:19.039 Right, It's worth ten times more. And that's great for you. 2:17:19.200 --> 2:17:25.640 Yes, and comma, comma, we we haven't even okay, I 2:17:25.760 --> 2:17:27.520 just I just described to sister where these people are 2:17:27.520 --> 2:17:30.840 promising the same house to moustiple people. This isn't even 2:17:30.959 --> 2:17:34.360 the extremely unfathomably reckless and greedy shit. No it is, 2:17:34.800 --> 2:17:37.200 oh it is, but it's not the worst of it. 2:17:37.320 --> 2:17:50.280 Oh good, Okay, So do you remember that quote from 2:17:50.320 --> 2:17:53.360 when I was fiving the first definition of shadow banking, right, 2:17:53.440 --> 2:17:56.560 like I gave I gave, I gave this quote from 2:17:56.560 --> 2:17:58.680 the guy who invented the term where he called it 2:17:59.160 --> 2:18:03.600 quote the whole alphabet soup of leveraged up investment, conduits, vehicles, 2:18:03.600 --> 2:18:06.480 and structures. Right, So we've kind of talked about the 2:18:06.480 --> 2:18:08.600 conduits vehicles, and structures. Right, those are all of the 2:18:08.600 --> 2:18:11.119 shadow banks that like make the things right. I love 2:18:11.160 --> 2:18:14.840 the conduits, vehicles, and structures. Yeah, all the acronyms. But 2:18:15.120 --> 2:18:16.840 what does leveraged up mean? 2:18:17.640 --> 2:18:17.840 Now? 2:18:18.440 --> 2:18:21.840 Okay? In this case, it means that a bunch of 2:18:21.879 --> 2:18:26.160 these banks have taken out a shit ton of like risky, 2:18:26.280 --> 2:18:28.840 high interest loans in order to buy more of these 2:18:28.879 --> 2:18:31.720 fucking mortgages because they think they can make more money 2:18:31.720 --> 2:18:32.080 off of it. 2:18:32.280 --> 2:18:35.800 So they took out they took out loans to buy 2:18:35.879 --> 2:18:38.960 these unsecured securities. 2:18:39.280 --> 2:18:44.440 The regular ass banks were doing this. Yeah, they went 2:18:44.520 --> 2:18:47.440 into debt to buy more of these shitty mortgages. 2:18:47.640 --> 2:18:50.720 So they took out loans to buy what are essentially 2:18:50.879 --> 2:18:52.560 unsecured loans. 2:18:52.640 --> 2:18:54.600 Yep, because I thought it would make them more money. 2:18:54.640 --> 2:19:00.560 But there's no money involved. Money. 2:19:00.600 --> 2:19:04.000 It is about to get so much worse, right, So okay, 2:19:04.040 --> 2:19:07.040 So sticking with leveraging for a second. Right, you might 2:19:07.040 --> 2:19:09.560 have actually heard something called a leveraged buyout. 2:19:10.040 --> 2:19:12.920 I have heard those words, and then I stopped listening. 2:19:13.120 --> 2:19:15.640 Yeah, so here's the thing. Leverage buyouts are something that 2:19:15.680 --> 2:19:18.400 actually happens in the real world that does fuck you directly, 2:19:18.760 --> 2:19:20.840 which is a whole bunch of companies that used to 2:19:20.920 --> 2:19:24.879 be like normalized companies like died because venture capital firms, you, 2:19:24.879 --> 2:19:28.440 by the way, are also shadow banks. Oh did this right? 2:19:28.640 --> 2:19:31.000 They came in Technically speaking, they did it through like 2:19:31.160 --> 2:19:33.360 risky bond purchases, but basically they did a bunch of 2:19:33.400 --> 2:19:36.000 high interest loans and then they go buy a company 2:19:36.040 --> 2:19:37.840 and then they like strip it for parts, and then 2:19:37.879 --> 2:19:40.000 they try to raise the stock price of the company. Yeah, 2:19:40.000 --> 2:19:43.119 and the s Hriver parts, sell everything and get out right. 2:19:43.240 --> 2:19:45.720 That's what a leverage buyout is. These people are sort 2:19:45.720 --> 2:19:47.720 of are doing kind of a version of that, but 2:19:47.879 --> 2:19:50.440 like they're taking on this debt in order to like 2:19:50.600 --> 2:19:56.040 buy fucking shitty underwater mortgages because they look like they're 2:19:56.040 --> 2:19:57.200 making so much money. 2:19:57.360 --> 2:20:01.039 They're taking on real debt to buy high pathetical debt. 2:20:01.360 --> 2:20:04.400 Oh, it's about to get so much worse. 2:20:04.760 --> 2:20:07.320 That doesn't seem like a good idea, so. 2:20:07.360 --> 2:20:10.320 Not to get so much worse. So that's what like 2:20:10.400 --> 2:20:11.760 the leveraged part of that. 2:20:12.000 --> 2:20:14.240 I don't even know how you do that in burgers. 2:20:14.480 --> 2:20:18.840 I don't know You're you're going into debt to like 2:20:18.959 --> 2:20:20.840 buy the promise of burgers in the future. 2:20:21.520 --> 2:20:24.119 So you can sell those future burgers. Yeah, but burgers 2:20:24.160 --> 2:20:26.320 are real. The thing we're not talking about it really 2:20:26.480 --> 2:20:26.840 at all. 2:20:27.360 --> 2:20:30.280 Well, the technically, technically speaking, Somewhere at the bottom of 2:20:30.320 --> 2:20:32.960 this is mortgages. However, Comma, we're about to get into 2:20:32.959 --> 2:20:35.280 a kind of asset where there isn't anything behind it. 2:20:35.800 --> 2:20:41.000 This is where the really really truly unhinged shit starts. 2:20:41.120 --> 2:20:43.560 It hasn't, which is that these companies figured out a 2:20:43.600 --> 2:20:47.320 way to bet on whether these mortgages were going to 2:20:47.320 --> 2:20:47.880 fail or not. 2:20:48.120 --> 2:20:51.880 That's so tight mea, I fucking love that. I love it. 2:20:52.000 --> 2:20:55.960 Yes, yes, By the way, I kinnatsize enough. How unhinged. 2:20:55.959 --> 2:20:59.600 This is the mechanism they're using to do this. It's 2:20:59.640 --> 2:21:02.560 called a credit default swap. Oh, I've heard that phrase. 2:21:02.959 --> 2:21:05.840 This was supposed to be how they did insurance. Their 2:21:05.879 --> 2:21:08.680 mechanism for doing insurance on all of these insane loans 2:21:08.680 --> 2:21:12.320 they were doing was originally like, Okay, I'm gonna you're 2:21:12.600 --> 2:21:14.480 I don't know, so you have a you have a bank, right, 2:21:14.480 --> 2:21:17.160 the bank has given out a risky loan. So this 2:21:17.240 --> 2:21:19.480 bank goes to another bank. They shouldn't do that, and 2:21:19.520 --> 2:21:22.440 they say, hey, if this person actually pays the loan back, 2:21:22.480 --> 2:21:23.760 I will pay you money. 2:21:23.879 --> 2:21:25.680 Okay, So the other so the other bank is like 2:21:25.920 --> 2:21:26.960 taking a gamble here. 2:21:27.320 --> 2:21:30.280 Yeah. So so the other bank that's giving out the 2:21:30.400 --> 2:21:33.440 loan right gets money if the loan goes under. So 2:21:33.480 --> 2:21:36.039 in theory, they're sort of like insured against the risk. 2:21:36.160 --> 2:21:38.320 They call it like hedging. They're like so like it's 2:21:38.360 --> 2:21:40.720 like so theoretically it's less bad from them because now 2:21:40.800 --> 2:21:42.720 even if the loan goes under, they still get money 2:21:42.760 --> 2:21:43.720 back from that other bank. 2:21:44.040 --> 2:21:46.240 So the other bank is just a bookie. 2:21:46.560 --> 2:21:49.240 Yeah, and the other bank is betting that they are 2:21:49.360 --> 2:21:52.920 going to get it. So then and if the loan 2:21:53.000 --> 2:21:54.960 does get paid, then that bank makes money. 2:21:55.120 --> 2:21:58.240 And this is legal for everyone to do. Yep, this 2:21:58.320 --> 2:22:00.480 is real banking or shadow bank. This is real bank. 2:22:01.080 --> 2:22:05.800 Didn't know this is techniically actually no, this is actually 2:22:05.879 --> 2:22:09.080 both both of them do this. Technically speaking, the instrument 2:22:09.240 --> 2:22:11.520 like like the actual like credit default swap or whatever, 2:22:11.600 --> 2:22:13.560 is made by the shadow banks, but then they're brought 2:22:13.600 --> 2:22:14.520 by the regular banks. 2:22:14.600 --> 2:22:17.040 I'm started to think that the bank starts the shadow 2:22:17.040 --> 2:22:19.800 banks and then all of this is just fake and bad. 2:22:20.360 --> 2:22:23.119 Like here's the here's the thing about these systems, right, 2:22:23.160 --> 2:22:25.120 is that like a lot of the original literature on 2:22:25.160 --> 2:22:27.040 it was considering them separate. But it's like, no, like 2:22:27.360 --> 2:22:29.959 the regular banks are making their own shadow banks do 2:22:30.000 --> 2:22:32.199 these things. They're all involved in these assets. They're also 2:22:32.280 --> 2:22:35.040 investing in the shadow banks, which is the problem we're 2:22:35.040 --> 2:22:35.600 having right now. 2:22:35.840 --> 2:22:37.920 It's like it's the same guy. He just like turns 2:22:37.920 --> 2:22:39.680 his chair around at his desk and he's like, now 2:22:39.720 --> 2:22:40.800 I'm shadow bank Todd. 2:22:41.000 --> 2:22:44.680 Yeah. Well, and sometimes it's that sometimes there I legitimately 2:22:44.800 --> 2:22:46.360 is just other entities they work with. 2:22:46.680 --> 2:22:49.240 But yeah, but there's still it's still a bank engaging. 2:22:49.280 --> 2:22:51.400 So it's like all these are non banking practices, Yeah, 2:22:51.400 --> 2:22:52.840 but the bank is doing it well. 2:22:52.879 --> 2:22:54.880 But here's the thing. The important part for that though, 2:22:54.920 --> 2:22:56.720 is that like the non bank also can do this 2:22:56.800 --> 2:22:58.320 with other non banks. 2:22:57.959 --> 2:23:00.760 Even better even Yeah. Right, Still, like I just feel 2:23:00.760 --> 2:23:02.480 like once we're once we're talking about chadow banking, like 2:23:02.520 --> 2:23:05.039 the real bank should not be in the room, Like 2:23:05.160 --> 2:23:07.800 go home, Wells Fargo, you don't belong here, you're drunk. 2:23:08.000 --> 2:23:10.600 No, But like they're funding all of this, right, If 2:23:10.600 --> 2:23:11.039 the real. 2:23:10.920 --> 2:23:12.720 Bank is involved with the shadow banking, that means like 2:23:12.800 --> 2:23:15.240 I can't opt out of being involved in this because 2:23:15.240 --> 2:23:16.199 they get my money. 2:23:16.800 --> 2:23:18.520 Yeah, you know what we were talking about that at 2:23:18.520 --> 2:23:20.440 the top, that like so some of these like fank 2:23:20.480 --> 2:23:22.360 banks had to like stop their withdrawals. Oh yeah, one 2:23:22.400 --> 2:23:23.960 of those, by the way, was JP Morgan. 2:23:24.160 --> 2:23:25.039 But that's a real bank. 2:23:25.480 --> 2:23:29.120 Yep. They're involved in the shadow banking shit, so they 2:23:29.320 --> 2:23:31.760 they are exposed to when they're like fucking seven hundred 2:23:31.760 --> 2:23:33.879 million dollar loan to like a fucking actually went home. 2:23:33.879 --> 2:23:35.920 Which one was the seven hundred million dollar I think 2:23:35.920 --> 2:23:37.959 a seven hundred million dollar loan that went under was 2:23:37.959 --> 2:23:41.959 the one that was to a subprime auto loan company. 2:23:42.360 --> 2:23:45.520 That's a bad investment. It's oh yeah, it's so evil. 2:23:46.080 --> 2:23:49.280 So why am I trusting all of my money that 2:23:49.320 --> 2:23:51.440 I have in this world? I'm letting this guy hold 2:23:51.480 --> 2:23:54.599 on to it, who's obviously not good with fucking money. 2:23:54.800 --> 2:23:56.680 Well, because the FDIC is ensuring it. 2:23:57.840 --> 2:23:59.320 Why are you in charge of it? Why are you 2:23:59.320 --> 2:24:01.520 in charge of having the money? You obviously don't make 2:24:01.520 --> 2:24:04.720 great financial decisions because you invested seven hundred million dollars 2:24:04.720 --> 2:24:06.160 in subprime auto loans. 2:24:07.560 --> 2:24:10.000 So, Mollie, this, this is the this is the point 2:24:10.040 --> 2:24:12.960 where we need to bring debt. The first five thousand 2:24:13.000 --> 2:24:15.200 years back into this and emphasize the extent to which 2:24:15.240 --> 2:24:17.640 the financial class has always been deeply connected to the 2:24:17.920 --> 2:24:20.560 of the military and why it's always been deconnected to 2:24:20.600 --> 2:24:21.520 war financing. 2:24:21.879 --> 2:24:25.000 I'm starting to realize that this is all very bad. 2:24:25.360 --> 2:24:27.520 It's very bad. It's all very bad. And this is 2:24:27.520 --> 2:24:30.800 this is to some extent why right Like part part 2:24:30.800 --> 2:24:34.720 of what right wing conspiracism about the financial system is 2:24:34.720 --> 2:24:37.560 is that like these people are like like the right wingers, 2:24:37.560 --> 2:24:39.600 like these people are there's like a baseline level of 2:24:39.640 --> 2:24:42.200 anti Semitism, like in the US right because it is 2:24:42.200 --> 2:24:44.440 a is a Christian society that is just like what 2:24:44.760 --> 2:24:48.560 fucking happens there? And these people are like, okay, we 2:24:48.600 --> 2:24:52.240 can channel all of the anger at like, oh my god, 2:24:52.360 --> 2:24:55.960 by fucking house got stolen by the bank because because 2:24:55.959 --> 2:24:57.800 they were betting on the mortgage to fail. 2:24:58.440 --> 2:25:00.520 And I still understand why that seagull. 2:25:01.200 --> 2:25:03.200 Yeah. Well, all these right wing conspiracits do is they 2:25:03.400 --> 2:25:04.680 look at that shit and they go, oh, well it 2:25:04.720 --> 2:25:07.200 was the Jews, and it's like but no, like fuck off, 2:25:07.440 --> 2:25:09.120 like these are all no it was the band and 2:25:09.360 --> 2:25:10.879 the other thing. And this is actually a really important 2:25:10.879 --> 2:25:13.080 thing that's not well understood here is that like the 2:25:13.200 --> 2:25:15.600 actual people who run these fucking banks and the people 2:25:15.600 --> 2:25:18.560 who work at them are all fucking white Christian dipshits. 2:25:19.000 --> 2:25:21.640 This is like a really, really like persistent issue that 2:25:21.680 --> 2:25:24.080 everyone fucking has, which is that, like one of one 2:25:24.080 --> 2:25:26.560 of the great successes of anti Semitism was like creating 2:25:26.600 --> 2:25:29.400 the image of the banker as a Jewish person. And no, 2:25:29.800 --> 2:25:32.080 they're not the Bay Like I fucking went to school 2:25:32.080 --> 2:25:33.720 with these people. They're all a bunch of fucking white 2:25:33.800 --> 2:25:36.440 frat bros. They're fucking white Christian frat ros. Oh right, 2:25:36.480 --> 2:25:37.800 you University of Chicago. 2:25:37.959 --> 2:25:40.039 You have a degree in economics in the University of Chicago. 2:25:40.160 --> 2:25:43.120 No freaking I have an anthropology degree, Thank you very much. 2:25:43.160 --> 2:25:47.280 I took a not a fucking fake degree, like the 2:25:47.320 --> 2:25:48.359 stupid econ bullshit. 2:25:48.480 --> 2:25:51.359 I would say, that's actually so evil to study economics. 2:25:51.440 --> 2:25:54.560 It's Chicago. You probably met some of the most evil people. 2:25:54.760 --> 2:25:57.560 Armed fact, I was just like in a dorm with them. Okay, 2:25:57.920 --> 2:25:59.840 so but you saw that I know all these people. Yeah, 2:25:59.840 --> 2:26:02.000 and like it is not it is not a bunch 2:26:02.040 --> 2:26:04.360 of Jewish people. It's it's a bunch of Christian frat bros. 2:26:04.640 --> 2:26:06.560 Like that's like the thing that's actually going on. There's 2:26:06.560 --> 2:26:09.440 actually a whole One day I will write behind the 2:26:09.440 --> 2:26:13.080 Bastard's episode about leverage buyouts and about how like there 2:26:13.200 --> 2:26:15.400 was like a Jewish guy who kind of like like 2:26:16.120 --> 2:26:18.720 did a lot of the inventing stuff, but him breaking 2:26:18.800 --> 2:26:21.160 into the banking thing was like a whole thing because 2:26:21.160 --> 2:26:22.960 there was so much anti Semitism because all of the 2:26:23.000 --> 2:26:25.840 banking sector was run by all of the fucking like 2:26:26.360 --> 2:26:31.800 weird dipshit like CIA, like like wasp motherfuckers. 2:26:33.600 --> 2:26:35.560 I mean, the Mormons have a huge hedge fund. 2:26:35.800 --> 2:26:37.320 Yep, yep, yep, yep, yep. 2:26:37.400 --> 2:26:38.920 Yeah, so like the what I said, I read an 2:26:39.000 --> 2:26:40.680 article about it, the hedge Fund, that the Mormons operate 2:26:40.760 --> 2:26:43.600 like they have their like best and brightest finance bros. 2:26:43.640 --> 2:26:45.760 Like you know, Mormons do their to your mission. If 2:26:45.800 --> 2:26:48.760 you're really good at finance your mission, that you don't 2:26:48.760 --> 2:26:50.360 have to go to South America and like tell people 2:26:50.360 --> 2:26:51.800 about the Book of Mormon. You can work at the 2:26:51.840 --> 2:26:52.840 hedge fund as your mission. 2:26:53.000 --> 2:26:53.920 It's it's a nightmare. 2:26:54.360 --> 2:26:56.160 I'm doing a hedge funds for God. Yep. 2:26:56.160 --> 2:27:00.840 That's a Satis Shatto bank by the way. Yep, it's great. 2:27:01.480 --> 2:27:05.360 So okay, okay, coming back to this again, right, so 2:27:05.400 --> 2:27:07.560 we're talking about like what what causes two thousand and 2:27:07.600 --> 2:27:09.959 eight and how did these shadow banks like do this? 2:27:10.560 --> 2:27:13.600 And the answer is that they've turned all of these 2:27:13.640 --> 2:27:17.560 mortgages into these like fake securities they can trade, right, 2:27:18.280 --> 2:27:21.879 they package them all together, and they find out something 2:27:21.920 --> 2:27:24.160 really crucial, which is that if they throw a bunch 2:27:24.200 --> 2:27:26.119 of loans that they obviously know are going to fail 2:27:26.160 --> 2:27:28.800 together and send them to a regulatory agency. And by 2:27:28.840 --> 2:27:30.920 the way, all of these like bonds that they're issuing 2:27:30.959 --> 2:27:33.360 have like grades based on supposed to be like how 2:27:33.360 --> 2:27:36.400 safe they are. And they figure out, yeah, and they 2:27:36.440 --> 2:27:38.360 figure out that they can send a bunch of really 2:27:38.360 --> 2:27:41.080 shitty bonds, but if they package enough shitty bonds together, 2:27:41.120 --> 2:27:43.840 they could send them to the regulators and the regulators 2:27:43.840 --> 2:27:46.280 would have would evaluate some of them as being good, 2:27:46.600 --> 2:27:48.440 and then you could sell the good ones to your 2:27:48.480 --> 2:27:51.600 pension fund because I thought it was a good bond 2:27:53.680 --> 2:27:57.800 and it made money. Lie and then and then yes, 2:27:57.920 --> 2:28:00.480 and yes, and then and then behind the scene, right, 2:28:00.720 --> 2:28:02.800 all of these fucking companies, all these shadow banks, all 2:28:02.800 --> 2:28:05.959 the regular banks, they're all doing these they're all doing 2:28:05.959 --> 2:28:08.440 these credit default swaps, right, So they're all betting on 2:28:08.480 --> 2:28:09.760 which ones of these are going to fail. 2:28:09.920 --> 2:28:12.360 I'm putting all of these boys in time out. I'm 2:28:12.360 --> 2:28:13.640 gonna put them in the bottom. 2:28:13.320 --> 2:28:16.640 Of a hip so evil, and they start they start 2:28:16.720 --> 2:28:20.119 doing these, making these like even more complicated instruments right where, 2:28:20.120 --> 2:28:22.840 Now what they're what they're selling to you isn't just 2:28:23.040 --> 2:28:25.920 the package of mortgages. They're also selling you the credit 2:28:25.959 --> 2:28:29.480 default swaps with the loan. So theoretically, what's happening is 2:28:29.480 --> 2:28:32.200 like they've created an instrument that, regardless of what happens 2:28:32.240 --> 2:28:33.480 to the loan, you make money. 2:28:33.680 --> 2:28:34.960 That's not how anything works. 2:28:35.240 --> 2:28:36.680 No, it's bullshit. 2:28:36.800 --> 2:28:40.360 It's so obviously bullshit. I made up this fake thing 2:28:40.360 --> 2:28:42.960 where no matter what happens, I get rich. That's cool. 2:28:43.000 --> 2:28:43.800 I would love to do that. 2:28:44.360 --> 2:28:46.560 Yeah, and nobody was like wait, well, I mean some 2:28:46.760 --> 2:28:48.600 a couple of people were, but like, like people didn't 2:28:48.800 --> 2:28:51.400 just be like wait, hold on, no, obviously you can't 2:28:51.400 --> 2:28:54.520 make an asset that makes money regardless of whether the 2:28:54.560 --> 2:28:55.480 thing fails or not. 2:28:55.640 --> 2:28:58.320 I invented a money machine, Like that's fucking ridiculous. 2:28:58.400 --> 2:29:00.480 And then eventually yeah, it was like no, they ran 2:29:00.520 --> 2:29:03.520 out of fucking mortgages. You know. One of the ways 2:29:03.520 --> 2:29:05.840 that the blame for this was deflected onto regular people 2:29:05.959 --> 2:29:08.840 was that they blamed the banks or like they blamed 2:29:08.879 --> 2:29:11.080 regular people for like not being able to pay the mortgages. 2:29:11.080 --> 2:29:12.960 But the thing is, by the time you get to 2:29:13.000 --> 2:29:15.440 the point where you're like packaging all that, you're betting 2:29:15.440 --> 2:29:18.280 on the mortgages. Right if you're a bank, even if 2:29:18.320 --> 2:29:20.720 you're the regular bank, you don't make money off of 2:29:20.760 --> 2:29:23.720 like someone paying their mortgage back. You make money on 2:29:23.920 --> 2:29:27.560 betting on the mortgages. So you're incentivized to just keep 2:29:27.600 --> 2:29:30.080 giving out loans you know won't happen because you can 2:29:30.160 --> 2:29:32.520 sell those loans off to some other dipshit and then 2:29:32.560 --> 2:29:34.320 you and then you can bet on those loans that 2:29:34.320 --> 2:29:36.000 they're going to fail and you can make money. And 2:29:36.040 --> 2:29:37.760 that's how you make your money because you're. 2:29:37.640 --> 2:29:42.560 You're not a bank anymore. You're a bookie who's cheating. Yep, 2:29:43.200 --> 2:29:44.400 I don't think that's good. 2:29:44.320 --> 2:29:48.880 Mia, No, this was the entire fucking financial system, and 2:29:49.000 --> 2:29:51.080 we just let these people stay in power. 2:29:51.640 --> 2:29:53.879 And I'm just supposed to just continue living my life 2:29:53.959 --> 2:29:54.240 like this. 2:29:55.280 --> 2:29:55.879 I don't know, like. 2:29:57.480 --> 2:29:59.560 Looking at this and then and then learning that all 2:29:59.560 --> 2:30:01.400 of these people got fucking bailed up by the government 2:30:01.400 --> 2:30:02.400 and none of them went to prison. 2:30:02.640 --> 2:30:05.879 And do they know they're cheating liars who are faking 2:30:05.879 --> 2:30:07.600 and making it up? Or are they like so high 2:30:07.600 --> 2:30:09.480 on their own supply they're like, they're like, no, bro, no, 2:30:09.560 --> 2:30:11.200 but this is totally gonna work. It's totally gonna work. 2:30:11.280 --> 2:30:14.280 Well, here's the thing. Some of them know and some 2:30:14.360 --> 2:30:15.599 of them don't. 2:30:15.440 --> 2:30:17.360 Because some of them believe that this is cool. 2:30:17.520 --> 2:30:19.840 Yeah, like some some of them legitimately thought that this 2:30:19.959 --> 2:30:21.039 was just going to work forever. 2:30:21.440 --> 2:30:24.440 Like do they believe their negative money, backed by other 2:30:24.520 --> 2:30:27.720 fake money, backed by the idea of promises of fake money? 2:30:27.840 --> 2:30:28.640 They think that's money. 2:30:28.800 --> 2:30:32.440 Yeah, yep, Well thought was gonna work. It's not, it's not. Nope, 2:30:32.560 --> 2:30:34.120 And it turned out to not be any fucking money, 2:30:34.120 --> 2:30:38.320 and it blew up again, Like entire countries, countries were 2:30:38.320 --> 2:30:40.240 buying these, they went bankrupt. 2:30:40.560 --> 2:30:45.440 So like this is less real than a board epe nft. 2:30:46.000 --> 2:30:50.480 And that's really saying something. It's it's astonishing because at 2:30:50.520 --> 2:30:52.280 least the at least I can look at least I 2:30:52.280 --> 2:30:54.360 can look at the picture of the monkey. I can't 2:30:54.400 --> 2:30:54.920 look at this. 2:30:55.200 --> 2:30:57.119 No, like it like you can't look at the bet 2:30:57.160 --> 2:31:00.480 you're making on whether and whether monkey go down, Like it's. 2:31:00.320 --> 2:31:02.680 Like like all my apes gone. 2:31:03.080 --> 2:31:05.960 Yeah, but it's suppresiing because the entire world is just this. 2:31:06.080 --> 2:31:07.600 Now it's a shit the banks were doing where you're 2:31:07.640 --> 2:31:09.320 betting on whether mortgage gould to fail, but now it's 2:31:09.320 --> 2:31:11.600 your betting on whether like what day we're going to 2:31:11.640 --> 2:31:12.640 drop a bomb on a run? 2:31:13.280 --> 2:31:15.680 Like nothing is real and everything is gambling. 2:31:16.000 --> 2:31:19.840 Yeah. Yeah, And this is you know, what I would 2:31:19.879 --> 2:31:23.039 call a sort of terminal crisis stage of capitalism, where like. 2:31:23.080 --> 2:31:26.160 Because everything is so divorced from any material reality, from 2:31:26.160 --> 2:31:27.759 any good or service. 2:31:27.840 --> 2:31:29.840 Like there is a limit to which you can run 2:31:29.879 --> 2:31:32.640 an entire economy that is purely based on gambling. Like 2:31:32.879 --> 2:31:35.480 they're just there's a limit and we're going to hit it. Really, 2:31:35.520 --> 2:31:39.440 so that's that's got to break, right, Yeah, Yeah, it's 2:31:39.520 --> 2:31:42.640 going to break. It's going to break spectacularly. However, Comma, 2:31:42.680 --> 2:31:45.600 I do have good news for you, don't I do? 2:31:45.760 --> 2:31:49.880 I have good news? You now actually understand what non 2:31:49.920 --> 2:31:54.640 bank financial intermediation is. No, I don't. I'm going to 2:31:54.720 --> 2:31:57.720 walk through through it. You actually do. So I'm going 2:31:57.800 --> 2:32:01.680 to quote the IMS definition of non bank financial intermediation 2:32:02.560 --> 2:32:07.039 quote all entities outside the regulated banking system that perform 2:32:07.160 --> 2:32:12.440 the core banking functions credit intermediation, that is taking money 2:32:12.440 --> 2:32:15.199 from savers and letting it to borrowers. The four key 2:32:15.280 --> 2:32:20.880 aspects of intermediation are maturity transformation. We know this one, right, 2:32:21.120 --> 2:32:22.640 This is this is what the bank does. 2:32:22.760 --> 2:32:25.480 The loan gets older. Yeah, yeah, he gets paid back 2:32:25.520 --> 2:32:26.039 over time. 2:32:26.320 --> 2:32:26.520 Yeah. 2:32:26.520 --> 2:32:29.680 Well it's you you turn your short term thing into 2:32:29.760 --> 2:32:31.959 a long term investment, or you do the opposite. 2:32:32.040 --> 2:32:32.920 Opposite, it's not good. 2:32:33.600 --> 2:32:36.320 They're both kind of a disaster, but like, yeah, yeah, 2:32:36.360 --> 2:32:38.600 the no, the opposite is kind of how we got 2:32:38.640 --> 2:32:39.360 into this mess. 2:32:39.840 --> 2:32:44.200 There's liquidity transformation, which we know this too. It's turning 2:32:44.240 --> 2:32:46.080 money into a thing that's not money. 2:32:45.879 --> 2:32:48.240 Yeah, or turning not money into a thing you can 2:32:48.280 --> 2:32:48.959 buy burger with. 2:32:49.240 --> 2:32:51.120 Okay, yeah, we got this. 2:32:52.000 --> 2:32:55.320 Leverage We also know this, which is you go into 2:32:55.320 --> 2:32:58.600 a bunch of debt to buy something else. And then 2:32:59.080 --> 2:33:01.520 there's credit risk transfer, which we know that one too. 2:33:01.560 --> 2:33:07.400 It's the betting market. We're supposedly swapping the risk by 2:33:07.879 --> 2:33:09.480 both of you two are now betting on whether this 2:33:09.520 --> 2:33:10.320 thing is going to fail. 2:33:10.560 --> 2:33:13.560 So it sounds like even just like regular banking is 2:33:13.800 --> 2:33:15.320 kind of just gambling now. 2:33:15.440 --> 2:33:18.959 Yep, yep, yep. Well, and it's fun too, So this 2:33:19.000 --> 2:33:20.440 is the thing that you used to be talked about 2:33:20.440 --> 2:33:23.760 more and isn't now. But like most of like, like 2:33:23.920 --> 2:33:28.200 the world's corporations are also basically this now, like this 2:33:28.240 --> 2:33:29.440 has been a thing for a while. But it's like 2:33:29.440 --> 2:33:31.760 the auto manufacturers don't make their money off of cars. 2:33:31.840 --> 2:33:33.280 I mean they sort of do. They make some money 2:33:33.280 --> 2:33:34.680 of cars, or like, most of what they make their 2:33:34.680 --> 2:33:37.800 money off of is like the forward finance company, which 2:33:37.840 --> 2:33:40.680 is like the auto loans thing. Oh and then the 2:33:40.680 --> 2:33:43.120 auto loans thing trades a bunch of like does all 2:33:43.160 --> 2:33:45.040 of this other financial bullshit to make money? 2:33:45.320 --> 2:33:47.520 So, like, I don't think that's a good idea. 2:33:48.320 --> 2:33:50.000 That's that's what capitalism is. 2:33:50.440 --> 2:33:55.640 So everything, everything is fully reliant on this. 2:33:55.600 --> 2:33:56.959 Like stupid gambling bullshit. 2:33:56.959 --> 2:34:01.560 Emperor is wearing no clothes economy yep. And if anybody, 2:34:01.600 --> 2:34:04.119 if anybody points out that none of this is connected 2:34:04.120 --> 2:34:06.840 to a material reality, everything falls apart. 2:34:07.120 --> 2:34:09.120 Well, here's the thing. The thing that stops everything for 2:34:09.200 --> 2:34:10.959 falling apart is that the one thing you can do 2:34:11.080 --> 2:34:13.000 with your money is turn it into gun. 2:34:13.400 --> 2:34:14.760 Now I'm listening, and. 2:34:14.680 --> 2:34:17.080 That's what stops it falling apart, right because. 2:34:16.840 --> 2:34:17.560 Now I'm listening. 2:34:17.640 --> 2:34:19.959 And this is also a sort of graverism. But it's 2:34:19.959 --> 2:34:22.680 like behind every bank is a man with a gun, 2:34:23.120 --> 2:34:26.160 because the reason that this money is even sort of 2:34:26.200 --> 2:34:29.560 real is that the bank can, like you, like the 2:34:29.640 --> 2:34:33.040 police will come get you, right, like men with guns 2:34:33.080 --> 2:34:35.200 will appear and coerce you to pay shit. 2:34:35.680 --> 2:34:39.200 Right, But what if what if instead of burger we 2:34:39.760 --> 2:34:40.960 bought gun? 2:34:42.000 --> 2:34:44.280 You know, like this is what is broadly referred to 2:34:44.400 --> 2:34:47.800 as the social revolution. It is it is broadly considered 2:34:47.800 --> 2:34:50.120 a negative by the financial sector. It is broadly considered 2:34:50.160 --> 2:34:53.160 a positive by everyone the fuck else. Okay, that's not true. 2:34:53.160 --> 2:34:55.320 It's not considered it a positive by like, I guess 2:34:55.360 --> 2:34:58.000 the people who own regular businesses. And this is like 2:34:58.040 --> 2:35:01.360 this shit that like, you know, it kind of less 2:35:01.440 --> 2:35:04.039 unhinged back then. But like if you go read the 2:35:04.120 --> 2:35:05.920 people who were like doing this shit in like the 2:35:05.959 --> 2:35:09.000 early nineteen hundreds, if you read their writing, it's all 2:35:09.120 --> 2:35:11.400 them being like, oh yeah, no, by the way, like 2:35:11.680 --> 2:35:14.279 a bunch of banks just like turned the entire Ottoman 2:35:14.320 --> 2:35:16.800 Empire into like a debt peon. And now their entire 2:35:16.840 --> 2:35:19.600 economy is just dedicated to paying off these fucking loans. 2:35:19.840 --> 2:35:22.840 And this is like hideously fucking evil, Like they're all 2:35:22.840 --> 2:35:24.120 complaining about the same shit. 2:35:24.400 --> 2:35:27.400 And the important lesson we learned from that, the important 2:35:27.480 --> 2:35:30.520 lesson we learned from that was to do it more more. 2:35:30.560 --> 2:35:35.360 Oh yeah, yeah yeah, to invent increasingly more complicated ways 2:35:35.400 --> 2:35:36.320 of doing that. 2:35:36.840 --> 2:35:37.040 Yeah. 2:35:37.200 --> 2:35:40.400 And like this, this is why the term third World 2:35:40.440 --> 2:35:43.600 is a slur becauseuse instead of being a political movement, 2:35:43.640 --> 2:35:45.880 because those the countries in the political movement that was 2:35:45.920 --> 2:35:48.720 called the Third World movement, all of their economies got 2:35:48.720 --> 2:35:51.959 fucking annihilated because they had these like loans whose interest 2:35:52.040 --> 2:35:54.720 rate could change, and the US jacked up all the 2:35:54.720 --> 2:35:58.200 interest rates and so suddenly their loans were like like 2:35:58.280 --> 2:35:59.920 the amount you had to like pay on the loan 2:36:00.360 --> 2:36:02.879 it went from like twenty percent or something to like 2:36:03.240 --> 2:36:05.520 fifty or one hundred or some shit. And you know, 2:36:05.560 --> 2:36:07.760 and like in these countries have never recovered, like Nigeria 2:36:07.800 --> 2:36:11.320 has never really economically recovered from the shit that happened 2:36:11.320 --> 2:36:12.840 to them with this. This is why a whole bunch 2:36:12.840 --> 2:36:15.080 of Latin America is like this too, Like it was 2:36:15.120 --> 2:36:17.680 like why there's so much sort of like writing systemic poverty, 2:36:17.840 --> 2:36:22.200 is that there were economies were entirely transformed into machines 2:36:22.240 --> 2:36:24.480 to like pay back these fucking debts taken out by 2:36:24.480 --> 2:36:27.560 these dictators. This is the whole fucking economy now. And 2:36:28.440 --> 2:36:31.080 you know there's other shadow banks that do other kind 2:36:31.120 --> 2:36:33.520 of completely unhand shit, right And I've been focusing this 2:36:33.560 --> 2:36:35.480 week on like specifically the kind that blew up the 2:36:35.480 --> 2:36:38.640 economy in two thousand and eight, But there's another kind 2:36:38.920 --> 2:36:41.040 that's like blowing up the economy right now, which is 2:36:41.080 --> 2:36:43.880 called private credit, which is I mentioned this briefly earlier, 2:36:43.920 --> 2:36:47.680 but private credit is when these like unregulated companies that 2:36:47.720 --> 2:36:51.120 are not banks, give out unregulated loans with unknown terms 2:36:51.120 --> 2:36:53.879 to other companies, and then those loans go to shit. 2:36:53.920 --> 2:36:55.640 And there's a whole bunch of ways that can blow up, 2:36:55.640 --> 2:36:57.600 including by the way, these companies are funding a bunch 2:36:57.600 --> 2:36:58.520 of the AI bubble. 2:36:58.720 --> 2:37:01.240 Oh and that's a great in depth, it's great, you 2:37:01.280 --> 2:37:04.039 know because much much like a mortgage, there's a real 2:37:04.040 --> 2:37:07.760 physical thing like a house involved, Right, it's not just vibes. 2:37:08.120 --> 2:37:11.160 Oh yeah, oh molly, molly, they those motherfuckers. I'm gonna 2:37:11.160 --> 2:37:12.440 talk about this a bit. I might have had just 2:37:12.560 --> 2:37:14.200 run on for this part of it too, just because 2:37:14.240 --> 2:37:16.520 like ED does this all the time. But like those 2:37:16.560 --> 2:37:19.720 motherfuckers out there selling securities that are backed by fucking 2:37:19.959 --> 2:37:25.640 graphics cards, like at least the more I can't believe 2:37:25.640 --> 2:37:28.600 I'm fucking saying this, but like at least the mortgage 2:37:28.640 --> 2:37:31.520 backed securities, like there was a house you could steal 2:37:31.600 --> 2:37:35.160 to get your money back graphics cards ball. 2:37:35.160 --> 2:37:40.040 All my apes are, all my apes are gone. Like 2:37:40.080 --> 2:37:43.840 there's other ones that like it's it's so bad, it's just. 2:37:47.280 --> 2:37:50.119 But that that's for another time because it is late 2:37:50.120 --> 2:37:52.959 as fuck and we are out of here. Mollie. Thank you, 2:37:53.080 --> 2:37:56.800 Thank you for sitting and enduring an hour of you 2:37:56.920 --> 2:37:58.080 knowing what a shadow bank is. 2:37:58.120 --> 2:38:01.640 Now I almost know what a bank is. I'm still 2:38:01.640 --> 2:38:03.280 working on the rest of it, but I think I'm 2:38:03.280 --> 2:38:03.960 getting closer. 2:38:04.240 --> 2:38:07.400 I believe in you. I think we've made for progress today. 2:38:07.879 --> 2:38:10.480 I don't know. Now you can kind of understand what's 2:38:10.520 --> 2:38:14.720 going on. When this sting sector explodes again in like two. 2:38:14.520 --> 2:38:16.240 Weeks, you'll have to explain it to me again. 2:38:16.280 --> 2:38:17.600 Then I will be happy. 2:38:17.360 --> 2:38:37.720 To oh. 2:38:42.320 --> 2:38:45.160 Demo crazy words. 2:38:46.760 --> 2:38:49.600 In twenty twenty, millions of Americans took to the streets 2:38:49.600 --> 2:38:53.240 to protest police violence. They were met with police violence 2:38:53.280 --> 2:38:57.600 on a massive scale. Shootings, vehicle attacks, and assassinations occurred 2:38:57.640 --> 2:39:01.480 alongside these protests, often into fas of the police, and 2:39:01.560 --> 2:39:05.200 in total, at least twenty five Americans died. We now 2:39:05.240 --> 2:39:08.560 know that President Trump repeatedly urged General Mark Milly to 2:39:08.600 --> 2:39:12.720 deploy US military forces to crack down violently on demonstrations. 2:39:13.240 --> 2:39:15.640 Milly claims that Trump told him to have his soldiers 2:39:15.800 --> 2:39:20.640 crack skulls, beat the fuck out of and just shoot protesters. 2:39:21.680 --> 2:39:24.840 In the end, we were all lucky. Military leaders, including 2:39:24.879 --> 2:39:27.760 General Milly, resisted calls to use their men to suppress 2:39:27.800 --> 2:39:31.560 domestic descent. National Guard were called in to police several 2:39:31.600 --> 2:39:34.800 major cities, but in many cases their behavior was tame 2:39:34.920 --> 2:39:38.240 compared to the militarized police who were reliably shot and 2:39:38.280 --> 2:39:42.200 beat protesters. For millions of Americans, twenty twenty was their 2:39:42.240 --> 2:39:44.800 first exposure to the violence the state will do to 2:39:44.879 --> 2:39:49.800 avoid change. And then Trump lost the election. He and 2:39:49.840 --> 2:39:52.359 his followers tried to carry out a coupe, but failed 2:39:52.600 --> 2:39:55.280 for now and millions of Americans who'd taken to the 2:39:55.280 --> 2:39:59.280 streets mostly went back to their lives. Some were satisfied 2:39:59.400 --> 2:40:01.920 just as had been done. Others were furious to have 2:40:01.920 --> 2:40:05.120 stopped short of instituting real change, but at the end 2:40:05.120 --> 2:40:08.200 of the day, business went on as usual. A version 2:40:08.280 --> 2:40:12.920 of normal prevailed. In twenty twenty one, the military of Myanmar, 2:40:13.360 --> 2:40:16.520 known as the tout Mada, overthrew the elected government in 2:40:16.560 --> 2:40:20.040 a coup. Hundreds of thousands of citizens, most of them young, 2:40:20.120 --> 2:40:23.000 gin z and millennial men and women, took to the streets. 2:40:23.520 --> 2:40:27.720 Police responded with tear gas, water cannons, and eventually bullets. 2:40:28.400 --> 2:40:31.480 The international community expressed its horror at the brutality of 2:40:31.520 --> 2:40:35.080 the TOTMDA, but that's all they did. Over the course 2:40:35.120 --> 2:40:38.400 of several months, the military pushed protesters mostly out of 2:40:38.440 --> 2:40:41.640 the cities, and a protest movement against the military coup 2:40:42.080 --> 2:40:46.000 turned into a civil war. Now those same protesters, mostly 2:40:46.120 --> 2:40:48.640 kids who wanted nothing more than a normal life, have 2:40:48.720 --> 2:40:52.640 become revolutionaries. With home made guns, three D printed rockets, 2:40:52.640 --> 2:40:56.120 and stolen rifles, they battled the taut Mada. Some of 2:40:56.160 --> 2:40:58.320 them fight in the jungles, some of them fight in 2:40:58.360 --> 2:41:01.800 the cities, and some of them on the internet. This 2:41:01.959 --> 2:41:08.440 is their story. We're sitting in a large suburban home 2:41:08.480 --> 2:41:11.360 in Mysot, Thailand, a small city on the border of 2:41:11.400 --> 2:41:14.360 Me and Mar. The boys singing and playing music around 2:41:14.440 --> 2:41:17.600 us range in age from seventeen to twenty two. Their 2:41:17.640 --> 2:41:20.600 existence in Thailand is a crime. If they are caught here, 2:41:20.840 --> 2:41:23.320 they'll be forced across the border into Me and Mar, 2:41:23.640 --> 2:41:27.199 whose government executed their friends and sold the organs for profit. 2:41:28.000 --> 2:41:32.120 But tonight they're playing music. We're drinking beer. Later, James 2:41:32.160 --> 2:41:33.959 Stout and I will play pool with them and get 2:41:33.959 --> 2:41:36.560 our asses just catastrophically wrecked. 2:41:40.720 --> 2:41:43.120 We met Andy, aged twenty two and head of the 2:41:43.160 --> 2:41:46.440 family for his Instagram page. That's not his real name, 2:41:46.640 --> 2:41:50.320 but for obvious reasons, we can't identify him. We first 2:41:50.320 --> 2:41:52.280 met when I send him a DM asking if we 2:41:52.280 --> 2:41:54.360 could buy one of his photos for our first series 2:41:54.360 --> 2:41:57.039 on Me and Ma. He was a bit skeptical, but 2:41:57.120 --> 2:41:58.600 I tried my best to get him to see we 2:41:58.720 --> 2:42:00.600 just wanted to give him money and from his work. 2:42:01.520 --> 2:42:03.680 Over the next six months or so, we weren't from 2:42:03.680 --> 2:42:06.879 talking on the phone to messaging almost every day, to 2:42:06.959 --> 2:42:09.760 Robert and I booking tickets to Thailand, to sitting on 2:42:09.800 --> 2:42:12.480 the top floor of their house. It used to be 2:42:12.560 --> 2:42:15.440 his landlord's office, but now it's home to Andy and 2:42:15.480 --> 2:42:18.840 his partner Sarah. That's also not her real name, because 2:42:18.840 --> 2:42:22.520 she's a citizen of a Western nation working in Thailand. 2:42:22.680 --> 2:42:25.800 The boys we talk about are the brothers, his cousin 2:42:26.000 --> 2:42:29.160 and friends. They live at a small building across the garden, 2:42:29.280 --> 2:42:31.440 and in the daytime they sit under a gazeba and 2:42:31.480 --> 2:42:35.000 play their guitars. The first night we met Andy and Sarah, 2:42:35.200 --> 2:42:37.920 we sat behind a bar in an unpaved alleyway. We 2:42:38.040 --> 2:42:41.120 drank beer out of sippy cups because selling beer is 2:42:41.160 --> 2:42:43.920 still banned at the local COVID regulations, but apparently the 2:42:43.959 --> 2:42:46.879 cops don't check sippy cups. We drank far too much, 2:42:46.920 --> 2:42:48.800 in fact, and the next day I work up with 2:42:48.800 --> 2:42:51.920 a headache and a blurry photo of me, Robert and 2:42:51.920 --> 2:42:54.440 Andy engaged in a post which was half hug and 2:42:54.480 --> 2:42:58.000 half mutual support structure. We walked home and according to 2:42:58.040 --> 2:42:59.880 my phone, at some point we took photos of a 2:43:00.720 --> 2:43:04.760 and and hopefully unrelated incident. At some point I started bleeding. 2:43:05.720 --> 2:43:08.720 It was immediately obvious that Andy needed the chance to 2:43:08.800 --> 2:43:12.200 blow off some steam. Over the last year and change. 2:43:12.320 --> 2:43:14.959 He is chronicled every stage of the coup in its aftermath, 2:43:15.400 --> 2:43:19.400 In early videos, we see joyous protests, moments of resistance, 2:43:19.440 --> 2:43:22.480 and splendor in the streets of cities like Miawiti. Later 2:43:22.920 --> 2:43:27.560 we see violence, death, and guerrilla warfare. Andy didn't have 2:43:27.640 --> 2:43:31.039 what you would call an easy childhood, thanks in part 2:43:31.080 --> 2:43:33.440 to me and Mar's long history of revolutions being crushed 2:43:33.480 --> 2:43:37.120 by the army. People there, like people everywhere, want to 2:43:37.160 --> 2:43:40.200 be free and determine their own futures. And so each 2:43:40.280 --> 2:43:43.520 generation has its own uprising, and each generation has its 2:43:43.520 --> 2:43:46.640 own massacre and very little progress to show for it. 2:43:47.440 --> 2:43:51.200 I was born in two thousand, so when I was seven, 2:43:51.200 --> 2:43:53.720 two thousand and seven, there was a revolution. It's called 2:43:53.720 --> 2:43:57.440 Saffron Revolution. It's it wasn't it wasn't like this, you know, 2:43:57.480 --> 2:44:00.080 it wasn't like what happened now. But like, they were 2:44:00.120 --> 2:44:01.440 a lot of people that were involved in it, a 2:44:01.480 --> 2:44:04.959 lot of people that killed, a lot of people left 2:44:05.120 --> 2:44:08.320 Miamar and came to the refugee counts in here, and 2:44:08.680 --> 2:44:10.320 we were one of the families that came to the 2:44:10.320 --> 2:44:11.080 refugee counts. 2:44:12.080 --> 2:44:16.960 And yeah, inta, Yeah, Andy's mother is Bumah, the dominant 2:44:16.959 --> 2:44:19.840 ethnic group in Myanmar, due to their decades long control 2:44:19.879 --> 2:44:23.360 of the military and government. His father is Karin, the 2:44:23.400 --> 2:44:26.240 ethnic group once used by the British government as soldiers. 2:44:26.600 --> 2:44:29.040 Since nineteen forty nine, the Karin have fought a war 2:44:29.040 --> 2:44:32.200 in the mountains against the Totmada. Their name is often 2:44:32.320 --> 2:44:35.760 anglicized to be spelled just like the English name Karen, which, 2:44:35.879 --> 2:44:39.720 given present Internet trends, makes explaining the conflict sometimes awkward. 2:44:40.520 --> 2:44:44.840 Andy primarily identifies as and was raised Bumah. His family 2:44:44.920 --> 2:44:47.800 left after the Saffron Revolution. They did not flee to 2:44:47.959 --> 2:44:51.800 escape political repression, but because the economy had collapsed. This 2:44:51.840 --> 2:44:54.480 put them in an awkward position in the camps, which 2:44:54.520 --> 2:44:57.640 were filled mostly with Karin people who had fled state violence. 2:44:58.320 --> 2:45:02.720 We weren't refugees. We were more like, how do you say, 2:45:02.760 --> 2:45:06.560 like economic refugees. You know, we go because not because 2:45:06.600 --> 2:45:09.080 our village has been burned down and our family has 2:45:09.120 --> 2:45:11.720 been killed, you know. So then if we were to 2:45:11.760 --> 2:45:14.440 go back to Yangon, we still could find a job. 2:45:14.480 --> 2:45:17.520 We still could find you know. But then for these 2:45:17.520 --> 2:45:21.680 current people, like this place is the only place that 2:45:21.680 --> 2:45:24.280 they could exist at that moment, right and probably still 2:45:24.280 --> 2:45:27.959 now too. So uh yeah, so they said that, but 2:45:27.959 --> 2:45:31.520 that education wasn't very good. There is the life wasn't good, 2:45:31.680 --> 2:45:32.920 you know, it wasn't It wasn't. 2:45:33.200 --> 2:45:33.960 It was very bad. 2:45:34.040 --> 2:45:36.480 Honestly, it was very bad. It was a lot of violence, 2:45:36.520 --> 2:45:39.160 a lot of hate, a lot of understandable, you know, 2:45:39.280 --> 2:45:41.440 like these people have gone through so much shit and 2:45:41.480 --> 2:45:45.000 so much trauma that and nothing. No one is coming 2:45:45.040 --> 2:45:47.880 there too, but fix that. So they had a lot 2:45:47.920 --> 2:45:50.920 of anger, They had a lot of problems. But my 2:45:51.080 --> 2:45:53.480 mom said, yeah, we're going back because the education he 2:45:53.640 --> 2:45:56.680 is very bad. And if you go back to Meamar, 2:45:56.720 --> 2:45:59.520 at least, you know, if you do like the thing 2:45:59.560 --> 2:46:02.280 that people or do, maybe you'll get somewhere. Yeah, in 2:46:02.320 --> 2:46:04.960 the future. Here there's no future, so she said, So 2:46:05.000 --> 2:46:08.360 we went back and I stayed in yourmar for like 2:46:08.360 --> 2:46:09.359 four years. 2:46:09.800 --> 2:46:12.840 Andy had never been very political. His family was more 2:46:12.920 --> 2:46:15.520 or less neutral, tending to side with the military more 2:46:15.520 --> 2:46:17.959 often than not out of a sense of inertia. Me 2:46:18.040 --> 2:46:22.000 and martended to cartwheel between attempts at democracy and military dictatorship. 2:46:22.360 --> 2:46:25.640 So when the world media celebrated their first democratic elections 2:46:25.680 --> 2:46:29.080 in twenty five years in twenty fifteen, Andy was not 2:46:29.200 --> 2:46:30.480 particularly excited. 2:46:31.040 --> 2:46:34.720 Yeah, So, I mean, we did realize that there was 2:46:34.840 --> 2:46:38.280 a change in the country, right, because we grew up 2:46:38.320 --> 2:46:41.360 in the military to take your ship. But then one 2:46:41.600 --> 2:46:42.760 contents did you take over? 2:46:43.200 --> 2:46:43.680 Took over. 2:46:44.440 --> 2:46:47.800 There were some changes, like the phones got cheaper, the 2:46:47.879 --> 2:46:50.879 internet got cheaper, and if you look back then you 2:46:50.920 --> 2:46:54.920 can see big, big changes. But the thing is it 2:46:55.000 --> 2:46:58.760 was never real democracy. And I think a lot of 2:46:58.800 --> 2:47:02.560 people in and the western countries thought that it was 2:47:02.640 --> 2:47:04.840 democracy when al Sansugi took over. 2:47:05.320 --> 2:47:08.520 Asong Suci came to prominence during a nineteen eighty eight 2:47:08.600 --> 2:47:11.400 uprising against the military, which ended in bloodshed in the 2:47:11.400 --> 2:47:14.880 streets of Yangon, and she'd been a long time democratic activist. 2:47:15.280 --> 2:47:18.360 As Andy noted, westerners celebrated her election as the first 2:47:18.400 --> 2:47:21.360 democratic head of state for mianmar She even won a 2:47:21.400 --> 2:47:24.360 Nobel prize, but the agreement her party had made with 2:47:24.400 --> 2:47:28.800 the military gave the general significant permanent control over the government. 2:47:29.120 --> 2:47:30.840 But I think most of the people in the country 2:47:30.920 --> 2:47:35.160 knew it wasn't real democracy because you know, the military 2:47:35.160 --> 2:47:38.760 always had twenty five percent twenty fight seats in the parliament, 2:47:38.840 --> 2:47:41.160 right like they were always they were in charge of 2:47:41.200 --> 2:47:44.760 electricity and all these all these big things, a weapons 2:47:44.920 --> 2:47:47.560 army like the military itself. They are in charge of 2:47:47.600 --> 2:47:49.920 all these things and they make it very clear. 2:47:50.080 --> 2:47:53.160 And even with a Nobel Prize on song, Suci did 2:47:53.200 --> 2:47:56.000 not fight to stop the top Mada from pursuing their 2:47:56.040 --> 2:47:59.880 decades long wars against the ethnic armed organizations in the Hills, 2:48:00.400 --> 2:48:02.760 nor did she act to stop their ethnic cleansing of 2:48:02.800 --> 2:48:05.600 the Rohinga people. In fact, she and others in her 2:48:05.640 --> 2:48:09.240 party didn't even call them Rohinga. They called them Bengali 2:48:09.480 --> 2:48:12.960 and insisted they were illegally residing in Myanmar, despite mountains 2:48:13.000 --> 2:48:15.520 of evidence documenting a group by that name living in 2:48:15.520 --> 2:48:18.840 what is now the Rakian State. I think most Americans 2:48:18.840 --> 2:48:21.600 and Westerners in general can empathize with the feeling of 2:48:21.600 --> 2:48:25.200 electing someone who promises change and then getting very little 2:48:25.240 --> 2:48:26.160 of what you'd expected. 2:48:26.560 --> 2:48:29.760 I think Alsensuci used to be this hope that that 2:48:29.959 --> 2:48:32.720 was like the opposition against the military. But I think 2:48:32.959 --> 2:48:38.360 when she got power, she couldn't do all the things 2:48:38.400 --> 2:48:41.880 that she promised to do or like, you know, we 2:48:42.240 --> 2:48:45.800 looked at her before, we looked at her as something, 2:48:45.879 --> 2:48:49.800 you know, something hope for everyone, you know, for all 2:48:49.800 --> 2:48:53.039 the ethnic groups and for everyone in the country. But 2:48:53.160 --> 2:48:57.920 then when she became empower, she mainly focused all these 2:48:58.040 --> 2:49:01.600 changes for the but my people, well, you know, the 2:49:02.280 --> 2:49:06.199 mainland people, like the military was still fucking killing people 2:49:06.640 --> 2:49:09.920 and killing ethnic groups. Did they do something, you know, 2:49:10.080 --> 2:49:13.000 like so then for the athnic groups, what's the difference? 2:49:13.600 --> 2:49:15.920 And so while Andy was hopeful that his country might 2:49:15.920 --> 2:49:18.520 take a better path, he was not exactly convinced that 2:49:18.600 --> 2:49:21.840 things were going to get better. Conflict within his family 2:49:21.879 --> 2:49:24.039 eventually pushed him to make the decision to leave. 2:49:24.680 --> 2:49:26.960 My dad was very abusive, right, he would be the 2:49:26.959 --> 2:49:29.560 shit out of my mouth every day like that. It 2:49:29.600 --> 2:49:31.680 was fine, Like it was fine when we were younger. 2:49:31.680 --> 2:49:33.400 We couldn't do anything, you know, we just kind of 2:49:33.800 --> 2:49:35.840 watched it, right, But the older we got, the more 2:49:35.879 --> 2:49:39.360 we involved, the more we try to stop it. But 2:49:39.400 --> 2:49:41.760 then we were fight with him too, you know. And 2:49:42.160 --> 2:49:44.760 so at some point it became too much, and so 2:49:44.840 --> 2:49:49.480 I left my home I think in twenty sixteen, just 2:49:49.520 --> 2:49:51.879 by myself, and I was like, I've been to messat, 2:49:52.080 --> 2:49:53.360 I will go back here, you know. 2:49:53.760 --> 2:49:56.039 So Andy lived across the border on his own for 2:49:56.120 --> 2:49:58.840 more than five years. He'd fallen in love, gotten a 2:49:58.840 --> 2:50:00.680 home with his own and set him himself up and 2:50:00.720 --> 2:50:03.040 the sort of odd jobs you can do without papers 2:50:03.240 --> 2:50:06.240 or legal residency and that's where things were for him 2:50:06.280 --> 2:50:08.520 when the top Madag carried out their coup in early 2:50:08.600 --> 2:50:09.640 twenty twenty one. 2:50:09.959 --> 2:50:14.000 Twenty twenty one February. First, I was a messout I 2:50:14.120 --> 2:50:17.280 was here, and yeah, in the morning, I woke up, 2:50:17.600 --> 2:50:20.240 called me my girlfriend and as she said, the military 2:50:20.320 --> 2:50:23.000 just did a coup in your country. You should call 2:50:23.000 --> 2:50:23.480 your family. 2:50:23.840 --> 2:50:26.560 The military claimed voter fraud and used that as the 2:50:26.560 --> 2:50:29.720 pretext to stay in power. It's a situation that should 2:50:29.720 --> 2:50:33.520 be unsettlingly familiar to most of our audience. For a while, 2:50:33.640 --> 2:50:36.280 Safe in Maysat, Andy watched it in horror as he 2:50:36.320 --> 2:50:38.560 texted with friends and family across the border. 2:50:38.640 --> 2:50:42.160 The arrested Ansensujin, all the big leaders right at the top, 2:50:42.400 --> 2:50:44.520 So we were kind of like, okay, is someone going 2:50:44.560 --> 2:50:46.760 to tell us what to do? And especially for us, 2:50:47.000 --> 2:50:51.000 we didn't have any experiences. We didn't know anything about 2:50:51.160 --> 2:50:53.280 any of this that I'm talking about right now. I 2:50:53.320 --> 2:50:56.000 didn't have any knowledge of that. But yeah, so after 2:50:56.440 --> 2:50:59.640 I think six day, the military cut off the internet 2:51:00.080 --> 2:51:02.760 for like two days, and I've lost our contact with 2:51:02.879 --> 2:51:06.520 everyone inside, my family, my friends, And that's the night 2:51:06.560 --> 2:51:08.680 I started playing it, like I started thinking, oh fuck, 2:51:08.720 --> 2:51:11.920 I should go back. And I saw the protest photos 2:51:11.920 --> 2:51:14.640 from Yangon. They looked amazing, right, and I'm like, I'm 2:51:14.680 --> 2:51:17.120 a photographer. I should be there and you know, document that. 2:51:19.320 --> 2:51:21.720 While Andy was staring at the protest photos from the 2:51:21.760 --> 2:51:25.640 capital of Mianmar Napo door, as well as Miawity and 2:51:25.680 --> 2:51:28.400 the largest city, Yang Gone, wondering he should take his 2:51:28.480 --> 2:51:31.360 camera and document yet another rising for democracy in his 2:51:31.400 --> 2:51:34.200 home country. A young woman named a Mirror was in 2:51:34.240 --> 2:51:37.120 the thick of those protests and Yang Gone when the 2:51:37.160 --> 2:51:41.960 coup started. A Mirror Age, seventeen, had just finished high school. 2:51:42.680 --> 2:51:45.800 She was looking forward to university and more pressingly, looking 2:51:45.800 --> 2:51:48.480 forward to playing futsal with her friends. She liked to 2:51:48.520 --> 2:51:51.960 spend a day's crafting, she says, making little things to 2:51:52.040 --> 2:51:55.600 gift or to keep, Like every other day. When she 2:51:55.720 --> 2:51:58.959 woke up, she spent ten minutes in medication before facing 2:51:59.000 --> 2:52:02.240 the world on the first February Long Sam Stukey was 2:52:02.280 --> 2:52:06.119 her hero, she says in our interview. Her boyfriend translated 2:52:06.200 --> 2:52:09.240 for her. We'll get to their story later, but when 2:52:09.240 --> 2:52:11.800 the coup began, they lived the world apart, but they 2:52:11.879 --> 2:52:15.560 joined the whole generation in feeling enraged by Tatmador, trying 2:52:15.600 --> 2:52:18.560 to rip the freedom their parents had fought for from them. 2:52:18.800 --> 2:52:22.000 A mirror took her rage into the street. Someone gave 2:52:22.000 --> 2:52:23.240 her a bullhorn. 2:52:23.160 --> 2:52:26.520 Because of her voice, and then she became the leader, 2:52:26.959 --> 2:52:28.760 you know with the bullhorn. 2:52:28.920 --> 2:52:31.440 Yeah, what kind of stuff would you say to the 2:52:31.440 --> 2:52:32.480 boat through the bullhorn? 2:52:32.879 --> 2:52:47.240 Hello, you don't want you She's saying, uh, this is 2:52:47.320 --> 2:52:53.160 and fell and then uh uh that the erascuing that 2:52:53.360 --> 2:52:56.600 Succi is a anfel not fair. 2:52:56.879 --> 2:53:00.600 Okay, got yeah, okay, yeah. 2:53:01.360 --> 2:53:06.280 And then she believed that, Uh, she believed in what 2:53:06.520 --> 2:53:13.680 Dar Sansuci said, like everything is possible, and we haven't 2:53:13.800 --> 2:53:18.160 do anything. We haven't studied yet, and then but when 2:53:18.200 --> 2:53:21.120 we study it and then we can finish it, so 2:53:21.320 --> 2:53:22.480 everything is possible. 2:53:23.120 --> 2:53:25.720 So that's what she believed in. 2:53:26.040 --> 2:53:29.560 So she went on the road and then she protests. 2:53:29.959 --> 2:53:33.400 Across the city from a mirror on Coude. Miowk's girlfriend 2:53:33.440 --> 2:53:35.600 woke him up with the news that the government they'd 2:53:35.720 --> 2:53:39.040 voted for had been arrested. We're calling him Yauk here 2:53:39.640 --> 2:53:42.640 because that's his name. In the revolution, everyone has one. 2:53:43.240 --> 2:53:46.879 A mirror's his baby, because she's so young yet so fierce. 2:53:48.240 --> 2:53:52.200 If you're wondering means monkey. These revolutionaries who have risked 2:53:52.200 --> 2:53:54.560 life and limb for each other didn't know the legal 2:53:54.640 --> 2:53:57.400 names of the people they call their revolution family because 2:53:57.400 --> 2:54:00.720 it's safer that way, and we don't either. Me, I 2:54:00.760 --> 2:54:03.400 could spend the night. Well, I'll let you hear Harry 2:54:03.400 --> 2:54:03.760 phrase it. 2:54:03.840 --> 2:54:07.400 Actually, I was just like I was chilling with my 2:54:08.320 --> 2:54:11.640 scare friend, you know, our jailing, and we were you know, 2:54:12.080 --> 2:54:18.080 Netflix and chare generary Neflis and I think it's a Sunday. 2:54:18.160 --> 2:54:21.720 I think it's Sunday Nephla and Cha, and we we 2:54:21.840 --> 2:54:22.520 slid together. 2:54:22.800 --> 2:54:25.359 If you didn't catch that there were Netflix and chilling. 2:54:25.560 --> 2:54:29.680 You know, I was literally not wakere but any louder show. 2:54:29.920 --> 2:54:33.480 I was so sleep but at the full am there's 2:54:33.520 --> 2:54:36.520 a whole poe rings and I certainly wake here the 2:54:36.720 --> 2:54:40.640 phone ring from my girlfriend, her anti call call called 2:54:40.720 --> 2:54:45.520 cald Heart, and she said there's a cool of fish. Oh, 2:54:45.560 --> 2:54:48.280 and she wake her and she told me there's a 2:54:48.320 --> 2:54:52.200 cool of I didn't, you know, I don't believe it. 2:54:52.480 --> 2:54:53.000 I believe it. 2:54:53.000 --> 2:54:55.200 I didn't believe it. So other than I chat the 2:54:55.280 --> 2:54:59.240 social media, oh ship or may I actually do this? 2:55:00.480 --> 2:55:03.920 I'm so angry and I'm so angry, you know. I 2:55:04.040 --> 2:55:08.640 was god to doll downstairs, and I told to my family, 2:55:08.920 --> 2:55:12.600 difficult of everyone's angry at those times. The internet they 2:55:12.680 --> 2:55:13.160 cut off. 2:55:13.720 --> 2:55:15.959 The next revolutionary we're going to mean is a fellow 2:55:16.040 --> 2:55:20.039 will call doctor Wonder because that's his revolution name. When 2:55:20.040 --> 2:55:22.600 the coups started, he was just waking up after a 2:55:22.640 --> 2:55:25.000 twenty four hour shift at the hospital and Yangon where 2:55:25.000 --> 2:55:28.119 he worked. Doctors were some of the earliest and most 2:55:28.160 --> 2:55:32.480 visible dissidents in the protests. Their rarity and therefore their 2:55:32.480 --> 2:55:35.080 relative value to the regime made them a potent symbol 2:55:35.120 --> 2:55:38.960 of the pro democracy movement, but, as Dr Wonder made clear, 2:55:39.400 --> 2:55:42.240 many older medical professionals, I'm not at all certain that 2:55:42.400 --> 2:55:43.960 resistance was a right move here. 2:55:44.920 --> 2:55:48.800 At the morning I saw the news that bad news, 2:55:48.879 --> 2:55:53.920 really really bad news for us. It was how would 2:55:53.959 --> 2:56:00.480 I say that day? Pro You know, yeah, they broke future. 2:56:01.320 --> 2:56:04.440 Doctors were some of the earliest, most visible dissidents in 2:56:04.440 --> 2:56:08.680 the pro democracy protests. Their rarity and relative value to 2:56:08.720 --> 2:56:11.360 the regime made them a potent symbol of the pro 2:56:11.400 --> 2:56:16.279 democracy movement, but as doctor Wonder made clear, many older 2:56:16.360 --> 2:56:19.800 medical professionals were not at all certain that resistance was 2:56:19.800 --> 2:56:20.800 a right move. 2:56:21.320 --> 2:56:26.520 On that money. We go back to our ah, our society, 2:56:26.560 --> 2:56:33.280 our hospital. We are shen guys, you know, all professors 2:56:33.400 --> 2:56:37.720 or conceranders. They not much interest about that. It was. 2:56:37.800 --> 2:56:44.200 They told us, you know, whoever rules our camfe, this 2:56:44.280 --> 2:56:48.680 is not our business. It is one of our seniors, 2:56:49.080 --> 2:56:52.879 doctors from our society for our department pool us like that. 2:56:54.160 --> 2:56:58.800 But we reply him, no, it should be the last time. 2:56:59.440 --> 2:57:02.360 If didn't care, he said it should be the last time, 2:57:03.200 --> 2:57:05.280 the last time kids had to die in the streets. 2:57:05.800 --> 2:57:08.240 They didn't want another generation to have to go through 2:57:08.280 --> 2:57:11.280 the same thing. So they got together a proposal, a 2:57:11.360 --> 2:57:15.720 sort of manifesto for peaceful, nonviolent resistance, and they submitted 2:57:15.720 --> 2:57:16.560 it to their seniors. 2:57:17.560 --> 2:57:22.440 We negotiated with our you know, young resident, our society, 2:57:22.800 --> 2:57:28.160 and we discussed about that and we plan to start 2:57:28.160 --> 2:57:32.640 with one of our prior movement before save a disagreement. 2:57:32.720 --> 2:57:37.560 We have got our red ribbon movement because we want 2:57:37.600 --> 2:57:42.840 not right peacefully on the media. Okay. We started like that, 2:57:43.720 --> 2:57:50.080 and then some of our seniors from our society, they 2:57:50.160 --> 2:57:55.600 were from Mandally Hospital. Okay, they accept our proposal. Yes, 2:57:56.360 --> 2:58:02.160 because our generation has already passed that difficulties before, but 2:58:02.680 --> 2:58:05.320 not your generation shouldn't accept that. 2:58:06.600 --> 2:58:09.520 Three days before the queue, TK got off a plane 2:58:09.560 --> 2:58:12.680 in San Francisco. He's from Me and Ma, but he 2:58:12.720 --> 2:58:16.240 lives in the Bay Area. Now, before you ask, he 2:58:16.320 --> 2:58:18.680 says that the Burmese restaurant there is not as good 2:58:18.720 --> 2:58:19.720 as stuff back home. 2:58:20.240 --> 2:58:24.959 It's only three days three days before, three days before 2:58:25.000 --> 2:58:28.360 I went back to the to the United States, and 2:58:28.720 --> 2:58:32.520 I wish I'm staying a youngle and doing the revolution 2:58:32.800 --> 2:58:37.360 and a participate in a everywhere that I can, but 2:58:37.400 --> 2:58:41.240 that I couldn't do from the long distance, you know. 2:58:41.600 --> 2:58:44.600 So that's all I can do for now. 2:58:45.200 --> 2:58:47.760 TK had just been in Me and Ma. He had 2:58:47.800 --> 2:58:50.680 connections to many people on the ground there, his friends 2:58:50.680 --> 2:58:54.240 with it, his family with it. When the government cut 2:58:54.240 --> 2:58:57.080 off into the access, he remained able to get good 2:58:57.200 --> 2:59:01.040 international reporting on the situation in his home country. Slowly 2:59:01.640 --> 2:59:04.640 he found ways to communicate with his friends and a 2:59:04.680 --> 2:59:07.800 growing core of the protesters taking to the streets. 2:59:08.040 --> 2:59:12.879 I was a keyboard fighter. I have no idea about 2:59:12.879 --> 2:59:17.720 a politics. I have no idea about the military stuff. 2:59:18.240 --> 2:59:21.240 This is a single most common sentiment we've heard across 2:59:21.240 --> 2:59:24.600 all the revolutionaries we've met. None of them considered themselves 2:59:24.680 --> 2:59:27.760 to be very political. Prior to the coup. They started 2:59:27.800 --> 2:59:30.680 marching in the street because a military coup was obviously bad, 2:59:31.320 --> 2:59:33.880 but they stayed there because the violence dished out by 2:59:33.879 --> 2:59:37.039 the state was so horrific. Save at their house in Masok. 2:59:37.400 --> 2:59:39.800 We talked to the boys and his brothers and cousins, 2:59:40.480 --> 2:59:42.400 all of whom were living in Napo door when the 2:59:42.440 --> 2:59:45.160 coup kicked off. It didn't take him long to try 2:59:45.160 --> 2:59:45.800 and join them. 2:59:45.959 --> 2:59:47.960 Then I went in. I went to Nyawiti, which is 2:59:48.040 --> 2:59:51.600 across the border in your marside, and I was there 2:59:51.640 --> 2:59:55.800 for a week and it was it was something else, 2:59:55.879 --> 2:59:58.680 like I've never been to protests now, I've never been 2:59:59.600 --> 3:00:02.080 involved in any of this thing, and I never thought 3:00:02.280 --> 3:00:04.800 I would be, you know, like I don't know. I 3:00:04.800 --> 3:00:06.560 always thought like I wasn't going to be a part 3:00:06.560 --> 3:00:08.720 of it. But when I went there the first day, 3:00:08.760 --> 3:00:10.720 I write there were two hundred thousand people on the 3:00:10.720 --> 3:00:14.320 street protesting. And then it's like, and if this big 3:00:14.360 --> 3:00:17.800 group of people walk in streets after street and everyone 3:00:17.879 --> 3:00:20.400 coming out of their house and we have this symbol 3:00:20.520 --> 3:00:25.560 like three fingers from Hangergang, I think, yeah, yeah, so 3:00:25.879 --> 3:00:30.080 that's like our symbol for democracy now or our movement now, 3:00:30.440 --> 3:00:33.440 and everyone come out of their house doing that and 3:00:33.520 --> 3:00:38.200 you know, like giving us water, food, everything. It was beautiful, 3:00:38.240 --> 3:00:40.400 like it was something else. It was something else. And 3:00:40.440 --> 3:00:43.160 then from that day I was like hook. I was like, Okay, 3:00:43.200 --> 3:00:44.280 this is what I'm going to do. 3:00:44.360 --> 3:00:44.520 Now. 3:00:44.560 --> 3:00:47.800 I'm going to be a photographer and I'm gonna in this, 3:00:48.000 --> 3:00:50.080 you know, and I'm gonna I'm going to take photo 3:00:50.120 --> 3:00:52.520 of these people and their stories and I'm gonna share 3:00:52.520 --> 3:00:54.320 it and that's. 3:00:53.800 --> 3:00:54.840 My part, that's my rule. 3:00:55.600 --> 3:00:59.720 Soon he found friends among the protesters. Within a few days, 3:01:00.160 --> 3:01:02.199 he was feeling a feeling that so many people felt 3:01:02.200 --> 3:01:05.680 in twenty twenty. It's a feeling you felt if you've 3:01:05.720 --> 3:01:07.400 ever been in the thick of a crowd of people 3:01:07.600 --> 3:01:11.800 filled with righteous anger and facing down overwhelmed police or soldiers. 3:01:12.360 --> 3:01:14.800 It's a sensation. I can't really described you you haven't 3:01:14.800 --> 3:01:17.800 experienced it, but I can say that there's no time 3:01:17.840 --> 3:01:20.200 that I've ever felt more empowered than the times I've 3:01:20.200 --> 3:01:23.400 been crushed shoulder with strangers, toe to toe with state 3:01:23.520 --> 3:01:27.920 violence and watch cops break and retreat. It's incredible. It's addictive, 3:01:28.320 --> 3:01:30.080 and if I'm monaged It's probably why Robert and I 3:01:30.080 --> 3:01:32.480 booked a flight to visit a stranger I've been dming 3:01:32.520 --> 3:01:33.080 on the ground. 3:01:34.520 --> 3:01:37.640 I think after three days, I met this group of people, 3:01:38.120 --> 3:01:41.600 young people like students trying to be lawyers and souf 3:01:42.080 --> 3:01:44.840 and I figured out that they were the ones trying 3:01:44.840 --> 3:01:48.480 to organize these big protests, like two hundred people, one 3:01:48.560 --> 3:01:51.879 hundred thousand people. They were the ones that's making that happen. 3:01:52.000 --> 3:01:54.080 So I started kind of following them, trying to get 3:01:54.120 --> 3:01:58.040 close because I wanted to get stories from them. And 3:01:58.080 --> 3:02:01.000 then they became they and they realize what I've been doing, 3:02:01.040 --> 3:02:03.879 They've been watching like and so they were like very welcome, 3:02:04.240 --> 3:02:06.320 and they took me to this hide out that they 3:02:06.360 --> 3:02:08.800 go to and then we will have discussions and meetings 3:02:08.800 --> 3:02:10.280 about what we should do the next day. 3:02:10.560 --> 3:02:11.520 Da da da da. 3:02:12.160 --> 3:02:14.920 But then kind of it's because it's a small town. 3:02:15.000 --> 3:02:15.120 Right. 3:02:15.160 --> 3:02:18.560 Slowly, I think police and military started realizing that we 3:02:18.600 --> 3:02:27.760 are that group too. 3:02:30.040 --> 3:02:41.480 Oh yeah, demo crazy wondering my josh oh do. 3:02:44.520 --> 3:02:47.120 So by now you're probably wondering what that coverage dust 3:02:47.160 --> 3:02:52.200 to do. It's a song that boys learned when we 3:02:52.280 --> 3:02:55.200 first took to the streets, but it tells the story 3:02:55.200 --> 3:02:58.320 of a previous revelation, one that didn't succeed. 3:03:01.360 --> 3:03:02.119 That's pretty good, guy. 3:03:02.280 --> 3:03:06.320 Yeah, can you tell us what that song's about, like, 3:03:06.480 --> 3:03:08.360 you know what the lyrics are and stuff in English? 3:03:08.760 --> 3:03:10.040 Yeah, yeah, we can try. 3:03:10.400 --> 3:03:11.920 I heard the word democracy in there. 3:03:11.959 --> 3:03:12.520 I'm pretty sure. 3:03:12.760 --> 3:03:18.360 Yeah, it's like all the. 3:03:18.000 --> 3:03:21.920 Yeah, do people use it for the Spring Revolution as 3:03:21.920 --> 3:03:23.000 well as Ida, Yeah. 3:03:23.440 --> 3:03:24.520 Because it's the same thing. 3:03:27.879 --> 3:03:29.800 Tell the world, and that's the. 3:03:29.800 --> 3:03:32.160 Name of the song, tell the world. 3:03:32.200 --> 3:03:32.560 It's good. 3:03:33.000 --> 3:03:36.280 Yeah, I tell the world. 3:03:36.879 --> 3:03:40.400 So basically the song is like, yeah, they sang it 3:03:40.440 --> 3:03:43.160 in the back in the eighty eight and then it's 3:03:43.200 --> 3:03:45.879 like we used it quite a lot when when we 3:03:45.879 --> 3:03:46.840 were in the protest to. 3:03:48.400 --> 3:03:48.640 Yeah. 3:03:48.800 --> 3:03:51.760 The lyris are We'll keep fighting until the end of 3:03:51.800 --> 3:03:54.600 the world for the sake of history and revolution in 3:03:54.640 --> 3:03:58.240 our blood and of the fallen heroes who fought for 3:03:58.280 --> 3:04:02.800 the democracy. Oh, our dearest heroes. This is the learne 3:04:02.800 --> 3:04:13.039 of like heroes. Yeah and yeah. It goes on and yeah, 3:04:13.080 --> 3:04:17.360 basically saying like something like the history went wrong along 3:04:17.400 --> 3:04:22.520 the way, but we have to fix it. Yeah, like 3:04:22.560 --> 3:04:25.440 the country has shut its blood and how could they 3:04:25.879 --> 3:04:30.360 commit such violence to its own people, you know. Yeah, 3:04:30.879 --> 3:04:33.520 and yeah, like they say, like the blood on the 3:04:33.600 --> 3:04:39.000 rows and the streets are not dried yet. And for 3:04:39.040 --> 3:04:43.480 the sake of these people who die for the democracy, 3:04:43.560 --> 3:04:46.760 for fighting for democracy, for the sake of them, we. 3:04:46.720 --> 3:04:48.360 Have to keep fighting basically. 3:04:48.480 --> 3:04:50.279 Yeah. 3:04:51.000 --> 3:04:53.880 Now in their exile, they keep singing it to remember 3:04:53.920 --> 3:04:56.520 the first day of the revolution, when the fights are 3:04:56.520 --> 3:04:59.120 in the street, not the jungle, before they lost so 3:04:59.200 --> 3:05:00.000 many of their comrade. 3:05:00.560 --> 3:05:01.119 Yeah. 3:05:01.160 --> 3:05:03.920 And then there was the night protest in front of 3:05:03.959 --> 3:05:04.600 the police station. 3:05:08.640 --> 3:05:09.240 Attends. 3:05:09.480 --> 3:05:12.119 Yeah, oh this is they're singing. 3:05:12.200 --> 3:05:13.080 The song is the same. 3:05:14.120 --> 3:05:20.760 Yeah, it got very very heated. 3:05:21.280 --> 3:05:24.199 The protest friends were just talking about occurred in reality, 3:05:24.400 --> 3:05:26.359 but the song popped up all across the country. 3:05:26.879 --> 3:05:32.080 When you played it in Yangon, you will sing it, uh, yeah, 3:05:32.120 --> 3:05:35.320 they and yeah though it wasn't one guitar, it was 3:05:35.360 --> 3:05:39.119 a whole band. Well you have like protesters sitting down 3:05:39.240 --> 3:05:42.720 and then there's a group of people who were playing 3:05:43.160 --> 3:05:45.959 this and repeatedly there are a bunch of songs that 3:05:46.040 --> 3:05:49.640 will play and then there's like words that we would 3:05:49.680 --> 3:05:51.800 say and yeah, like slot. 3:05:51.640 --> 3:05:57.080 Myself, Yeah I not beam down. 3:05:57.520 --> 3:06:00.520 And you'll see from the footage how it's. 3:06:00.520 --> 3:06:03.760 Yeah, how did it make you feel singing it out. 3:06:04.560 --> 3:06:05.400 It's scary, you know. 3:06:05.560 --> 3:06:10.840 It's like the song, the song is very real. So 3:06:11.480 --> 3:06:16.760 like at first we didn't want to play the song. 3:06:17.040 --> 3:06:22.360 It's too dark, it's too it's too intense, right yeah, 3:06:22.520 --> 3:06:26.280 like yeah, but it's not like the lyrics are there, 3:06:26.360 --> 3:06:27.640 like you can see it. 3:06:27.680 --> 3:06:27.879 You know. 3:06:27.959 --> 3:06:31.320 It's like because we've been through it too, so it's 3:06:31.440 --> 3:06:34.480 very intense. And yeah, I think the first time I 3:06:34.520 --> 3:06:37.959 heard it, like I heard the song, I remember that 3:06:38.000 --> 3:06:41.840 we are feeling of yeah, I still have it like 3:06:41.879 --> 3:06:44.480 every time we're saying it now, like this is not 3:06:44.680 --> 3:06:47.000 one of the songs that we usually sing like. It's 3:06:47.040 --> 3:06:47.840 not a fun song. 3:06:48.920 --> 3:06:56.279 Yeah, the album lou. 3:07:09.000 --> 3:07:20.599 Bedia de Moore Crazy. 3:07:22.680 --> 3:07:25.359 On the next episode, which you'll be able to download tomorrow, 3:07:25.920 --> 3:07:29.119 we'll talk about how the Hunter began to clamp down 3:07:29.120 --> 3:07:32.480 on the protests. Now the protesters decided this struggle was 3:07:32.480 --> 3:07:43.800 too important to abandon and decided to fight back. Hi everyone, 3:07:44.200 --> 3:07:47.280 it's James here. I just wanted to note that lots 3:07:47.280 --> 3:07:50.520 of the words in this script are Burmese or Karen 3:07:50.840 --> 3:07:52.879 or Thai, and we've made every effort to make sure 3:07:52.920 --> 3:07:55.600 that we pronounce them correctly, but we're sure We've obviously 3:07:55.720 --> 3:07:58.320 made some mistakes along the way. That's not out of 3:07:58.360 --> 3:08:00.600 a lack of respect or I have a lack of 3:08:00.640 --> 3:08:03.000 re recording on my part, but we did want to 3:08:03.000 --> 3:08:04.920 note that what we've made a mistake, we're very sorry 3:08:04.959 --> 3:08:05.320 for doing. 3:08:05.360 --> 3:08:13.840 So this is it could happen here in Executive Disorder, 3:08:14.000 --> 3:08:16.480 our weekly newscast covering what's happening in the White House, 3:08:16.480 --> 3:08:19.040 the crumbling world, and what it means for you. I'm 3:08:19.080 --> 3:08:22.400 Garrison Davis today and joined by Mia Wong and Robert Evans, 3:08:22.760 --> 3:08:26.760 with a special sign by James Stout. This episode, we're 3:08:26.760 --> 3:08:29.560 covering the week of July fifteenth to July twenty second. 3:08:30.400 --> 3:08:33.560 On Monday morning, someone poured gasoline in front of an 3:08:33.680 --> 3:08:36.440 entrance to the Federal Immigration Court in New York City 3:08:36.800 --> 3:08:39.600 and lit the gasoline on fire. A forty three year 3:08:39.600 --> 3:08:41.680 old Army vet was arrested outside the building that has 3:08:41.680 --> 3:08:44.840 been charged with arson. The man brought a sign reading 3:08:45.120 --> 3:08:48.640 ice off our streets and also allegedly launched a bundle 3:08:48.640 --> 3:08:51.280 of fireworks and fired pellets from an air soft rifle. 3:08:51.760 --> 3:08:54.800 Three US service members were killed this week on an 3:08:54.840 --> 3:08:57.920 air base in Jordan as a result of Trump's war 3:08:58.040 --> 3:09:01.240 with Ron The New York Times, Sames reported that the 3:09:01.240 --> 3:09:04.600 Trump administration has tried to obtain phone and text records 3:09:04.680 --> 3:09:07.680 from New York Times journalists and their families to uncover 3:09:07.720 --> 3:09:10.800 the source of leaks regarding the security capabilities of the 3:09:10.840 --> 3:09:15.240 new Air Force one courtesy of the Qatari government. Cash 3:09:15.240 --> 3:09:19.360 Hotel's overseeing this investigation. This is a huge First Amendment breach. 3:09:21.160 --> 3:09:25.520 After multiple failed election campaigns, Katie Porter has announced she 3:09:25.560 --> 3:09:29.520 is leaving politics to become a book influencer Oh God, 3:09:29.680 --> 3:09:34.600 and has rebranded her Instagram account to Katie Porter turns 3:09:34.640 --> 3:09:35.160 the page. 3:09:36.080 --> 3:09:39.560 What okay? I mean bold move to be like, you 3:09:39.640 --> 3:09:42.320 know what, the growth industry of the future is books. 3:09:44.959 --> 3:09:47.360 I can't fault the desire there, but I just don't 3:09:47.360 --> 3:09:49.640 think history is going to really work that way, Katie. 3:09:50.520 --> 3:09:54.040 Secretary Kennedy has announced the Trump administration is pausing more 3:09:54.040 --> 3:09:57.920 than one billion dollars in medicaid payments to California and 3:09:58.000 --> 3:10:02.280 Minnesota due to quote societ dected fraud and non compliance. 3:10:03.240 --> 3:10:04.600 Play a short clip here. 3:10:05.680 --> 3:10:08.920 That includes more than eight hundred and sixty seven million 3:10:08.959 --> 3:10:14.279 dollars for California and over two hundred million dollars for Minnesota. 3:10:14.360 --> 3:10:18.080 If those states want that money. They need to provide 3:10:18.160 --> 3:10:21.359 documentation that these payments are legitimate. 3:10:22.480 --> 3:10:25.560 This will seriously harm, if not kill people, huge numbers 3:10:25.560 --> 3:10:28.320 of people. This is just a billion dollar cut to 3:10:29.240 --> 3:10:32.080 medicaid citing quote unquote fraud. 3:10:32.440 --> 3:10:35.720 It's aimed at blue states that the administration sees as enemies. 3:10:35.879 --> 3:10:39.680 You know, let's move on to our first main story 3:10:39.720 --> 3:10:42.520 and it'll be kind of a through line this episode. 3:10:42.800 --> 3:10:46.600 As I briefly mentioned last week, on Thursday, July sixteenth, 3:10:46.640 --> 3:10:50.000 Mark Rubio and the State Department held an international conference 3:10:50.080 --> 3:10:54.840 on the Scourge of Left Wing violence and Antifa Terrorism. 3:10:55.040 --> 3:10:57.640 This is just the latest escalation following Trump's designation of 3:10:57.680 --> 3:11:01.840 Antifa as a quote unquote terrorist group last year and 3:11:01.879 --> 3:11:04.440 the emboldening of law enforcements targeting of left wing groups 3:11:04.920 --> 3:11:08.959 the National Security Presidential Memorandum Number seven. According to the 3:11:08.959 --> 3:11:12.920 State Departments, this international conference was attended by representatives from 3:11:13.040 --> 3:11:18.280 sixty six countries. Over sixty senior ministers were invited, but 3:11:18.400 --> 3:11:23.480 only seventeen ministers actually were in attendance, though other quote 3:11:23.520 --> 3:11:27.600 political leaders and experts and law enforcement officials traveled to 3:11:27.720 --> 3:11:31.840 DC for the event, including the senior chief of the 3:11:31.840 --> 3:11:35.840 Hellenic Police from Greece. According to a reporter from the 3:11:35.879 --> 3:11:39.760 lahrnta newspaper, Mexico was invited to the summit, but the 3:11:39.800 --> 3:11:45.440 president declined to attend because the conference seemed quote more 3:11:45.560 --> 3:11:49.080 political than really related to combating criminal groups. 3:11:49.320 --> 3:11:51.760 Yeah, amazing, imagine that. 3:11:52.400 --> 3:11:55.440 And before the conference, Washington Post reported that many senior 3:11:55.480 --> 3:11:58.760 ministers were confused as to the purpose of the event 3:11:58.840 --> 3:12:01.080 and why they were invited to the conference, with two 3:12:01.160 --> 3:12:04.400 European diplomats telling the Post quote, we don't have Antifa 3:12:04.560 --> 3:12:08.080 end quote. Our law enforcement authorities have not focused on 3:12:08.160 --> 3:12:10.640 left wing terrorism because this is not considered a high 3:12:10.720 --> 3:12:12.359 priority threat in our countries. 3:12:12.440 --> 3:12:14.280 It doesn't really exist, yeah to us. 3:12:15.800 --> 3:12:19.040 So this international summit put on by Mark Rubio was 3:12:19.080 --> 3:12:24.359 titled the Ministerial on the Resurgence of Political Terrorism. 3:12:24.560 --> 3:12:29.520 Come very serious, completely leaving out the right, and also, 3:12:29.560 --> 3:12:32.080 as we'll talk about later, blaming a lot basically the 3:12:32.200 --> 3:12:35.440 entire modern left on Cuba because it's a mix of 3:12:35.480 --> 3:12:38.480 Marco and everyone trying to panter to Trump. A lot 3:12:38.560 --> 3:12:41.120 of these are grievances either rooted in the seventies or 3:12:41.200 --> 3:12:43.920 like a four month period in twenty twenty. Yes, right, 3:12:44.000 --> 3:12:45.960 Like that's their entire conception of the left. 3:12:46.959 --> 3:12:50.320 To open the summit, Rubio told this story of a 3:12:50.360 --> 3:12:56.400 civilizational threat posed by leftists, Marxists, and anarchist political violence, 3:12:56.600 --> 3:12:59.440 the violence that has laid dormant since the seventies but 3:12:59.520 --> 3:13:04.800 has now awoken. Rubio applauded our counter terrorism strategies in 3:13:04.879 --> 3:13:08.800 taking down quote unquote radical Islamist extremism. But while our 3:13:08.800 --> 3:13:12.040 focus has been on Isis and jihadism, law enforcement and 3:13:12.080 --> 3:13:15.480 the counter terrorism mapparatus has been unable or unwilling to 3:13:15.600 --> 3:13:19.080 go after left wing violence, let's hear from Rubio. 3:13:20.200 --> 3:13:23.240 For far too long, however, our counter terrorism doctrine has 3:13:23.240 --> 3:13:26.160 had a blind spot, a blind spot when it comes 3:13:26.400 --> 3:13:30.920 to extremist violence from the political left. Even today, the 3:13:31.040 --> 3:13:34.000 very idea that far left terrorism could be a serious 3:13:34.040 --> 3:13:37.840 threat is treated as a right wing fever dream, or worse, 3:13:38.400 --> 3:13:42.200 as a dangerous fascist conspiracy. It's treated this way by 3:13:42.200 --> 3:13:46.039 many in the press, by many an academia and our universities, 3:13:46.440 --> 3:13:47.160 and by many of. 3:13:47.080 --> 3:13:48.439 Our legacy institutions. 3:13:49.440 --> 3:13:51.720 You will, no doubt see the dogma rear its head 3:13:51.760 --> 3:13:54.800 in the coverage of this very conference, in spite of 3:13:54.800 --> 3:13:57.800 the clear and the undeniable reality, in spite of the 3:13:57.840 --> 3:13:59.520 objective numbers and statistics. 3:14:00.640 --> 3:14:04.760 One of the main tactics employed by Rubio, Stephen Miller, 3:14:04.800 --> 3:14:08.560 and others throughout this conference was the subtle conflation of 3:14:09.080 --> 3:14:13.000 mass casualty incidents from the far right with instances of 3:14:13.080 --> 3:14:17.360 property damage or, in the most extreme cases, targeted assassination 3:14:17.879 --> 3:14:21.640 attempts against political figures attributed to the far left, which 3:14:21.760 --> 3:14:24.560 people on the far right also do, by the way. 3:14:25.080 --> 3:14:25.840 Much more often. 3:14:25.959 --> 3:14:30.600 Yeah, Rubio said quote. A whole industry grew up in 3:14:30.640 --> 3:14:33.360 our countries around the study of extremism. We have think 3:14:33.400 --> 3:14:37.720 tanks and fellowships and journals and consultancies, with the unspoken 3:14:37.840 --> 3:14:41.359 understanding among them that only one kind of political violence 3:14:41.440 --> 3:14:44.600 was a true threat to the system. A bomb planted 3:14:44.600 --> 3:14:47.160 by a neo Nazi group was a nefarious and murderous 3:14:47.200 --> 3:14:50.600 act of evil, it is, But a bomb planted by 3:14:50.640 --> 3:14:54.920 a Marxist revolutionary, well, that's just merely a tragic excess 3:14:54.959 --> 3:14:59.240 of idealism. Perhaps its means were misplaced or over zealous, 3:14:59.440 --> 3:15:02.720 but it's ends were virtuous and just unquote. 3:15:03.240 --> 3:15:06.400 No one's ever said that, Mark, no one, no one 3:15:06.400 --> 3:15:08.680 in US politics has ever said that. You can find 3:15:08.720 --> 3:15:12.080 some maniacs have said anything about anything. But like, that's 3:15:12.120 --> 3:15:14.080 simply not a discourse in America. 3:15:14.680 --> 3:15:19.560 CVE researchers generally would not describe Marxist bombing plots as virtuous, and. 3:15:19.760 --> 3:15:22.320 Just I've never heard a bombing plot described as virtuous. 3:15:22.400 --> 3:15:25.039 The only act of what you could call terrorism I've 3:15:25.080 --> 3:15:27.960 ever seen in the recent days people call virtuous is 3:15:28.320 --> 3:15:30.960 you know what happened to that healthcare executive. 3:15:30.840 --> 3:15:34.320 Which Rubio does talk about, Yes, and that is definitely a. 3:15:34.280 --> 3:15:36.000 Lot of people cheered that on. But I can't think 3:15:36.000 --> 3:15:38.120 of a single instance in which a bombing has ever 3:15:38.160 --> 3:15:40.960 been cheered on. So and Marxist. 3:15:40.600 --> 3:15:44.120 Bombings, it's like, wait, when was the last time that 3:15:44.200 --> 3:15:46.680 Marxist like actually said like, this is not a real thing. 3:15:46.920 --> 3:15:49.240 It isn't that What Rubio was talking about is a 3:15:49.360 --> 3:15:52.440 spate of left wing affiliated bombings that occurred from nineteen 3:15:52.480 --> 3:15:54.400 seventy one to seventy two. He talks about this in 3:15:54.400 --> 3:15:54.840 the Cube of. 3:15:54.840 --> 3:15:57.000 Pity, and that's what he's said that hasn't happened, Like 3:15:57.040 --> 3:16:01.119 no weather underground has been above ground for like. 3:16:01.600 --> 3:16:03.600 That's entirely what all this is based on. 3:16:03.840 --> 3:16:05.959 Yeah, yeah, and it's like it's not a thing. 3:16:05.879 --> 3:16:08.760 Now, Yeah, is what old people remember about the left 3:16:08.800 --> 3:16:09.560 in the seventies. 3:16:09.680 --> 3:16:12.760 Yeah, you know, it's not directly referenced, but I know 3:16:12.920 --> 3:16:16.320 the DJ did make a big hubbub about foiling a 3:16:16.560 --> 3:16:18.720 quote unquote far left or it's kind of like an 3:16:18.760 --> 3:16:23.680 anti imperials like maoist bombing plot in California late last year. Also, 3:16:23.720 --> 3:16:27.400 a confidential human source who was working with law enforcement 3:16:27.920 --> 3:16:31.400 was involved in the planning of this operation, which was 3:16:31.440 --> 3:16:34.560 stopped by law enforcement before they could ever carry out 3:16:34.640 --> 3:16:35.120 the attack. 3:16:35.240 --> 3:16:37.280 And that's the closest thing to like an actual like 3:16:37.440 --> 3:16:40.400 Mark City. That is the closest recent thing. Yes, Like 3:16:40.480 --> 3:16:44.200 that's it, like in the last like very long number 3:16:44.240 --> 3:16:45.600 of years now. 3:16:45.760 --> 3:16:51.400 Rubio claimed that quote an extraordinary ideological prejudice was embedded 3:16:51.400 --> 3:16:54.240 in the way we talk about political violence and extremism, 3:16:54.840 --> 3:16:57.840 to the point that this prejudice has become the neutral 3:16:57.879 --> 3:17:02.480 and objective baseline quote so entrenched in the mainstream conventional 3:17:02.480 --> 3:17:05.800 wisdom that it came to be regarded as an apolitical fact. 3:17:07.080 --> 3:17:10.680 For an example of this, Rubio mentions the protests against 3:17:10.720 --> 3:17:12.480 the murder of George Floyd. 3:17:13.320 --> 3:17:17.920 Many people in positions of power have repeatedly dismissed acts 3:17:17.920 --> 3:17:21.600 of violence and even terrorism as legitimate forms of political expression, 3:17:21.720 --> 3:17:24.800 so long as they served a left wing cause. 3:17:25.800 --> 3:17:26.879 It is why during. 3:17:26.680 --> 3:17:29.800 Those George Floyd so called George Floyd Riots in the 3:17:29.840 --> 3:17:33.560 summer of twenty twenty, as criminals and extremists burned and 3:17:33.680 --> 3:17:37.640 looted their way through American America's great cities and nearly 3:17:37.680 --> 3:17:41.600 brought the country to its knees, city governments all across 3:17:41.640 --> 3:17:45.920 the country simply refused to prosecute the people conducting these 3:17:45.920 --> 3:17:50.120 acts of violence and terror. It is the reason for 3:17:50.200 --> 3:17:53.440 the now infamous image. Maybe you all recall this of 3:17:53.480 --> 3:17:56.400 a news anchor from a very prominent agency, a news 3:17:56.400 --> 3:18:01.920 anchor standing in the neighborhood consumed in flames. Meanwhile, the 3:18:02.000 --> 3:18:06.279 cryon on the bottom red that the protests were mostly peaceful. 3:18:06.560 --> 3:18:08.640 Can even say cairon right, My god. 3:18:08.520 --> 3:18:12.000 This was something worse than a double standard. Left Wing 3:18:12.080 --> 3:18:16.160 violence was not just excused, It was treated as sacricinct, 3:18:16.800 --> 3:18:20.120 a protected class unto itself. 3:18:20.840 --> 3:18:25.480 A protected class unto itself, protecting their ability to light 3:18:25.560 --> 3:18:27.199 trash on in the middle of a street. 3:18:27.320 --> 3:18:30.440 That's what happened. There weren't thousands of arrests and prosecutions. 3:18:30.720 --> 3:18:33.640 That is the Other thing is that the Trump administration 3:18:33.840 --> 3:18:35.520 did that a little bit, but this was at the 3:18:35.600 --> 3:18:39.680 end of twenty twenty. The Biden administration did tons and 3:18:39.760 --> 3:18:42.920 tons of like federal arrests, yes, with people involved in 3:18:42.959 --> 3:18:46.800 these protests, people who are still in jail. Meanwhile, the 3:18:46.920 --> 3:18:49.400 January six people are out of jail and have had pardons. 3:18:50.520 --> 3:18:55.400 Rubio referenced instances of political violence in Europe from recent time, 3:18:56.160 --> 3:18:57.920 like a firebomb attack on the home of a Greek 3:18:57.920 --> 3:19:02.160 politician that killed that politician's mother earlier this month. Rubio 3:19:02.160 --> 3:19:05.600 did not mention that four suspects have already been arrested 3:19:06.200 --> 3:19:08.000 and that this fire bombing was the first time in 3:19:08.080 --> 3:19:10.760 over a decade that someone was killed in an attack 3:19:10.840 --> 3:19:15.320 targeting a politician in Greece. Rubio also referenced a five 3:19:15.400 --> 3:19:18.120 day blackout in Berlin last winter caused by a power 3:19:18.160 --> 3:19:21.080 line sabotage. People claiming to be responsible for the attack 3:19:21.080 --> 3:19:25.600 associate to themselves with a far left eco extremist group Leslie. 3:19:25.800 --> 3:19:29.120 Rubio mentioned that in February of this year, quote a 3:19:29.200 --> 3:19:32.560 French twenty three year old succumbed to traumatic brain injuries 3:19:32.920 --> 3:19:35.039 beaten to death on the streets of Leone by a 3:19:35.040 --> 3:19:38.560 group of far left militant thugs. This twenty three year 3:19:38.560 --> 3:19:41.600 old was a neo fascist qute unquote activist, that's what 3:19:41.640 --> 3:19:45.360 he's referred to in local news coverage, who died two 3:19:45.440 --> 3:19:48.280 days after being brutalized in a large street brawl during 3:19:48.320 --> 3:19:50.640 a far right protest outside of a university event featuring 3:19:50.680 --> 3:19:54.480 a Palestinian lawmaker. Eleven anti fascists were arrested for this. 3:19:55.959 --> 3:19:56.760 Rubio tried to. 3:19:56.720 --> 3:20:01.279 Connect the current emerging threat of far left political terrorism 3:20:01.720 --> 3:20:06.000 to historical Marxist struggles in the twentieth century and particularly 3:20:06.000 --> 3:20:09.640 the nineteen seventies. Rubio name dropped to urban grilla groups 3:20:09.680 --> 3:20:13.240 in Central South America, FARC, the National Liberation Army, the 3:20:13.280 --> 3:20:16.600 Shining Path, Maoist guerrillas in Peru, as well as European 3:20:16.640 --> 3:20:20.840 groups like Italy's Red Brigades, the Red Army Faction in Germany, 3:20:21.120 --> 3:20:24.600 Marxist extreamists in Greece and in the US, the Weather Underground, 3:20:24.600 --> 3:20:27.560 the Black Liberation Army, and the Symbonese Liberation Army. 3:20:28.959 --> 3:20:30.920 And today we face a new wave of this old 3:20:30.959 --> 3:20:35.160 evil here in the United States. The share of left 3:20:35.160 --> 3:20:38.080 wing terrorist attacks and plots has risen to levels not 3:20:38.240 --> 3:20:42.840 seen in decades. In Germany, far left violence has jumped 3:20:42.879 --> 3:20:46.080 by more than forty percent in just the last year alone. 3:20:46.959 --> 3:20:49.960 In Greece, more than eighty percent of radical violence is 3:20:50.000 --> 3:20:52.440 now driven by far left and anarchist actors. 3:20:53.480 --> 3:20:56.199 These these are not abstract statistics. 3:20:56.840 --> 3:20:59.879 Americans have seen what those numbers mean, and all out 3:20:59.920 --> 3:21:05.280 of assault on our immigration officers, sniper attacks, explosives, armed ambushes, 3:21:05.879 --> 3:21:09.840 a transgender shooter opening fire on Catholic elementary school students 3:21:09.920 --> 3:21:14.279 as they pray, his gun marked with slogans like where 3:21:14.400 --> 3:21:20.879 is your God now? A healthcare executive executed in cold 3:21:20.920 --> 3:21:25.680 blood in the streets, multiple assassination attempts on a sitting president, 3:21:26.120 --> 3:21:29.080 and the murder of the greatest conservative activist of a generation. 3:21:31.000 --> 3:21:34.160 So there's a lot there. Anarchist violence certainly isn't new 3:21:34.240 --> 3:21:38.480 in Greece. No, and again in the American context, this 3:21:38.520 --> 3:21:42.879 little speech by Rubio conflates mass casualty events with property 3:21:42.959 --> 3:21:47.520 damage and isolated targeted violence. He references vague quote unquote 3:21:47.600 --> 3:21:52.720 all out assaults on immigration officers as in big protests 3:21:52.720 --> 3:21:56.440 in Minneapolis. He references a one sniper attack by a 3:21:56.480 --> 3:22:00.840 suicidal man who was not very political and leaned libertarian 3:22:01.040 --> 3:22:05.080 in Texas, here references a transgender shooter who also was 3:22:05.120 --> 3:22:08.160 not politically motivated in the traditional sense and initially planned 3:22:08.160 --> 3:22:12.400 to shoot up an LGBTQ music venue. The United Healthcare 3:22:12.440 --> 3:22:15.840 CEO assassination is arguably the closest thing here to like 3:22:16.080 --> 3:22:17.800 left wing motivated violence. 3:22:17.959 --> 3:22:19.800 It's definitely politically motivated, even. 3:22:19.640 --> 3:22:23.440 That suspect wasn't particularly like left wing politically, no belief 3:22:23.480 --> 3:22:28.119 in some political ideology was not the driving force behind 3:22:28.160 --> 3:22:33.600 that assassination. It wasn't ideologically motivated, but rather materially motivated 3:22:33.879 --> 3:22:38.000 based on interactions with our inhumane healthcare system. Trying to 3:22:38.080 --> 3:22:41.680 understand every public act of violence, whether that's a shooting 3:22:41.800 --> 3:22:46.640 or an assassination, just as existing in between this left 3:22:46.720 --> 3:22:50.880 right binary is a very limited way to actually try 3:22:50.879 --> 3:22:55.119 to understand public acts of violence, because not all shootings 3:22:55.160 --> 3:22:59.160 have an obvious ideological driver. Public acts of violence can 3:22:59.200 --> 3:23:03.400 be downs dream of someone's personal experiences and material conditions. 3:23:03.840 --> 3:23:07.000 As for the Trump assassinations, two have been from people 3:23:07.040 --> 3:23:11.040 who were largely moderate liberals, not leftists, and the first 3:23:11.080 --> 3:23:13.160 attempt assassination did not appear to have what we would 3:23:13.200 --> 3:23:16.000 originally consider to be a political motive. Again, from someone 3:23:16.080 --> 3:23:19.680 with a conservative background who was closer to what we 3:23:19.680 --> 3:23:22.760 would describe as having like a school shooter mentality. I'll 3:23:22.760 --> 3:23:24.640 talk about this a little bit later, but I think 3:23:24.640 --> 3:23:29.400 it's really important to understand that just because the target 3:23:29.440 --> 3:23:33.359 is a political figure does not mean it is political violence. 3:23:33.879 --> 3:23:37.280 The attempted assassination on Ronald Reagan is a key example 3:23:37.280 --> 3:23:42.160 of this, and investigations into the first Trump assassination found 3:23:42.200 --> 3:23:45.800 that the shooter, Thomas Crooks, searched online for a variety 3:23:45.840 --> 3:23:48.360 of events to commit a shooting at. In the month 3:23:48.440 --> 3:23:50.720 prior to the shooting, he did more than sixty ounite 3:23:50.760 --> 3:23:53.960 searches related to Biden Trump and information about the upcoming 3:23:54.040 --> 3:23:58.959 DNC and RNC conventions. Trump's campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania 3:23:59.320 --> 3:24:01.920 just happened to take place in the right place at 3:24:01.959 --> 3:24:05.040 the right time, And for someone who's just trying to 3:24:05.080 --> 3:24:09.160 do a high profile shooting, it might not even matter 3:24:09.440 --> 3:24:14.279 what the outcome of that attempted shooting is. These public 3:24:14.320 --> 3:24:17.920 acts of violence usually have a suicidal component, a driver 3:24:18.080 --> 3:24:23.360 self annihilation, while simultaneously gaining some final sense of meaning 3:24:23.440 --> 3:24:26.680 or purpose by crudely emblazoning yourself in history through a 3:24:26.760 --> 3:24:30.960 violent act. This kind of public suicidal violence can be 3:24:31.480 --> 3:24:35.320 a sort of final attempt of communing with the world. 3:24:35.879 --> 3:24:39.320 The AP summarized report published last year by the Center 3:24:39.560 --> 3:24:43.320 for Strategic and International Studies that found that left wing 3:24:43.440 --> 3:24:47.080 terrorist attacks as of July of last year had surpassed 3:24:47.360 --> 3:24:49.240 those from the far right for the first time in 3:24:49.280 --> 3:24:51.240 more than thirty years, But a closer look at that 3:24:51.360 --> 3:24:55.760 data showed that the uptick reflects a very low starting 3:24:55.840 --> 3:24:59.720 level and a concurrent drop on the far right. Quote, 3:25:00.040 --> 3:25:02.600 there was an average of zero point six left wing 3:25:02.640 --> 3:25:06.400 incidents annually from nineteen ninety four through two thousand, compared 3:25:06.400 --> 3:25:08.680 with an average of twenty point six on the right. 3:25:08.840 --> 3:25:10.520 The report shows from. 3:25:10.400 --> 3:25:12.400 Twenty sixteen to twenty twenty four, they were an average 3:25:12.400 --> 3:25:15.039 of four per year on the left and twenty two 3:25:15.200 --> 3:25:18.400 point seven per year on the right. Those numbers have 3:25:18.480 --> 3:25:21.840 dropped dramatically on the right as of early July twenty 3:25:21.840 --> 3:25:25.560 twenty five, with only one incident. Meanwhile, there had been 3:25:25.840 --> 3:25:30.120 five from the left. So yes, left wing attacks in 3:25:30.160 --> 3:25:33.560 twenty twenty five did outpace what that report as of 3:25:33.640 --> 3:25:37.120 July categorized as right wing attacks, but that was because 3:25:37.120 --> 3:25:39.039 there was a big drop off in right wing attacks 3:25:39.080 --> 3:25:42.600 once Trump came into office and a very small increase 3:25:42.600 --> 3:25:44.959 in attacks attributed to the left. And that is the 3:25:44.959 --> 3:25:48.680 sort of statistics that Rubio is using to make this push. 3:25:50.000 --> 3:25:52.000 Yeah, and you know, like it's worth noting. It's like, okay, 3:25:52.040 --> 3:25:53.960 so why have there been less of these sort of 3:25:54.040 --> 3:25:57.480 like right wing political terrorism events And it's like, well, 3:25:57.520 --> 3:25:59.160 because ICE is just doing them instead. 3:25:59.280 --> 3:26:01.280 Yeah, the states doing the violence for them. 3:26:01.600 --> 3:26:03.560 Yeah. Like it's the same reason that you can look 3:26:03.600 --> 3:26:06.800 at the period in which sort of like jailhouse lynching 3:26:06.920 --> 3:26:09.879 suddenly like collapses, and the reason they collapse is that, 3:26:09.920 --> 3:26:12.680 you know, the US government starts executing those people, and 3:26:13.120 --> 3:26:14.920 you know, this is like a very explicit deal that's 3:26:14.920 --> 3:26:17.640 made between the state and you know, the specific kind 3:26:17.640 --> 3:26:19.480 of lynch mob is like we'll just carry out death 3:26:19.600 --> 3:26:22.080 like penalty sentences against these people if you stop storming 3:26:22.080 --> 3:26:24.720 prisons and lynching them in there. So you know, that's 3:26:24.720 --> 3:26:26.640 like what's happening here, right, is like you have people 3:26:26.680 --> 3:26:30.520 with mass shooter profiles. Who are you know, ICE officers 3:26:30.680 --> 3:26:32.440 shooting like immigrants in the streets. 3:26:32.440 --> 3:26:32.640 Now. 3:26:33.000 --> 3:26:36.080 Yeah, One thing that was really common throughout Rubio's whole 3:26:36.080 --> 3:26:38.280 speech and some of the follow up remarks by like 3:26:38.320 --> 3:26:41.320 Miller and Bessett is like a big thing that was 3:26:41.440 --> 3:26:45.120 undergirding their rhetoric was this assumption that if the target 3:26:45.200 --> 3:26:47.840 of violence is viewed as a right wing then the 3:26:47.959 --> 3:26:51.440 attacker must be left wing, and any attack that goes 3:26:51.480 --> 3:26:54.360 against what they would consider like a right wing symbol, 3:26:54.400 --> 3:26:57.600 whether that's Ice, whether that's the President, whatever, then whoever 3:26:57.640 --> 3:27:00.840 is attacking that symbol must be from the left wing 3:27:00.879 --> 3:27:02.520 or have some left wing motivation, And that's the way 3:27:02.520 --> 3:27:05.080 that they're trying to frame a lot of this. One 3:27:05.080 --> 3:27:07.720 of the old categories of violent extremism is called anti 3:27:07.760 --> 3:27:10.959 government violent extremism, which is a very broad category which 3:27:11.000 --> 3:27:16.280 can encompass some people who have explicit ideological drivers, but 3:27:16.480 --> 3:27:20.400 also can include people who are doing public suicidal violence, 3:27:20.560 --> 3:27:23.920 who will target the government or political figures as an 3:27:23.959 --> 3:27:30.560 expression of their own political and societal alienation. Someone who 3:27:30.560 --> 3:27:33.920 does this kind of public suicidal violence can often lack 3:27:34.040 --> 3:27:37.880 a recognizably coherent political philosophy that can be easily grafted 3:27:37.879 --> 3:27:41.400 on to our Democrat Republican binary, with there sometimes being 3:27:41.440 --> 3:27:44.360 a mix of political beliefs across the left right spectrum. 3:27:45.000 --> 3:27:48.320 But now that Trump is in office, any attack against 3:27:48.400 --> 3:27:51.080 the federal government can be used by the Trump administration 3:27:51.440 --> 3:27:55.480 as an example of left wing terrorism attacking a right 3:27:55.520 --> 3:27:59.040 wing government. Take, for instance, the sniper attack in Texas 3:27:59.080 --> 3:28:04.400 targeting and ice fisacility and vehicles. Although actually shooting multiple immigrants, 3:28:05.480 --> 3:28:09.199 this shooter was described by his friends as being largely 3:28:09.240 --> 3:28:12.760 a political but leaned libertarian. This shooting also had a 3:28:12.840 --> 3:28:17.120 suicidal aspect in that he did kill himself after the shooting. 3:28:17.959 --> 3:28:22.160 With Trump in charge of the federal government, nihilistic and 3:28:22.280 --> 3:28:26.640 self destructive attacks against American society may take a form 3:28:26.720 --> 3:28:31.800 which can be characterized as left wing violence. Another example 3:28:31.800 --> 3:28:34.600 of this is the plot against the UFC Freedom two 3:28:34.760 --> 3:28:39.440 fifty event, where self described Christian patriots who saw themselves 3:28:39.480 --> 3:28:44.920 as aspiring revolutionaries tried to start the Second American Revolutionary 3:28:44.959 --> 3:28:49.800 War by targeting high level politicians and public figures at 3:28:49.879 --> 3:28:53.200 the UFC White House event. These people are not on 3:28:53.240 --> 3:28:56.800 what I would consider the left wing, but in the 3:28:56.879 --> 3:28:59.800 conservative coverage of this attack, this was framed as an 3:28:59.840 --> 3:29:04.160 anti capitalist attack targeting Trump's cabinet. Towards the end of 3:29:04.240 --> 3:29:07.640 Rubio's speech, he started talking about this like international strategy 3:29:07.640 --> 3:29:10.959 that they want to develop to handle this emerging threat quote. 3:29:11.160 --> 3:29:13.320 This is an international conference because we are facing an 3:29:13.360 --> 3:29:18.640 international transnational threat. These are not distinct and isolated cells. 3:29:18.680 --> 3:29:21.480 They are interconnected networks. They do not recognize our borders. 3:29:21.760 --> 3:29:25.040 They do not believe, in fact in the nation state itself. 3:29:25.360 --> 3:29:28.320 They coordinate, they communicate, they travel, they train, and they 3:29:28.360 --> 3:29:31.640 act together, sharing the same infrastructure, sharing the same enemies, 3:29:31.800 --> 3:29:34.400 sharing the same mission. And I'll play one more clip 3:29:34.440 --> 3:29:35.440 from Rubio here. 3:29:36.879 --> 3:29:40.320 ANTIFAM militants and their comrades travel from across Europe and 3:29:40.360 --> 3:29:44.039 to the Americas to participate in each other's attacks, to 3:29:44.120 --> 3:29:49.000 funnel propaganda and training materials and target information through shared 3:29:49.120 --> 3:29:54.080 encrypted channels, moving through underground networks of safehouses and finance, 3:29:54.680 --> 3:29:59.280 and sustain their operations through transnational funds. And they work 3:29:59.280 --> 3:30:03.760 alongside lost all foreign states that share their mission, like 3:30:03.800 --> 3:30:08.039 a Rocks Iranian proxy networks, who are increasing increasingly intimately 3:30:08.080 --> 3:30:12.640 tied to leftist militant groups around the world. The Cuban 3:30:12.680 --> 3:30:16.320 regimes sprawling intelligence and ideological network help to build the 3:30:16.320 --> 3:30:19.680 far left in our country and in our hemisphere, and 3:30:19.760 --> 3:30:22.520 it remains inextricably linked to the far left groups and 3:30:22.560 --> 3:30:28.400 movements across and beyond the West. Today's far left terrorists 3:30:28.560 --> 3:30:31.560 can raise money in one country, they can host their 3:30:31.560 --> 3:30:33.320 communications in a second country. 3:30:33.760 --> 3:30:35.920 They can receive training in a third country. 3:30:36.240 --> 3:30:39.280 They can recruit militants in a fourth country and then 3:30:39.320 --> 3:30:42.760 together strike a target in a fifth country. 3:30:43.080 --> 3:30:45.320 A thing that we've never seen happen. This is complete 3:30:45.360 --> 3:30:48.680 section that's never ever happened. This is not once. Where 3:30:48.720 --> 3:30:52.800 are they training, Marco? This is like a Tom Clancy 3:30:52.920 --> 3:30:55.520 novel that's he does think they're training in Cuba. Actually 3:30:55.600 --> 3:30:56.760 I shouldn't ask that. 3:30:56.879 --> 3:30:58.840 Yeah, the only thing that functions like this is the 3:30:58.879 --> 3:30:59.960 central intelligence agents. 3:31:00.360 --> 3:31:03.400 Yeah, but nothing else works like this. That's not entirely true, 3:31:03.440 --> 3:31:05.520 like the global far right does to a degree work 3:31:05.560 --> 3:31:08.200 that's true, right, Like, yeah, there's an element now. Now 3:31:08.200 --> 3:31:10.000 I wouldn't even describe it that way because that's more 3:31:10.040 --> 3:31:12.600 elaborate than I've ever seen the global far right do, honestly. 3:31:12.720 --> 3:31:15.320 But yeah, they're versions of that do occur where people 3:31:15.360 --> 3:31:18.119 are like traveling to one country for armed training or whatever. 3:31:18.280 --> 3:31:18.440 Yeah. 3:31:18.520 --> 3:31:20.320 Yeah, I guess you could look back at the old 3:31:20.360 --> 3:31:23.680 like world anti communist networks exactly like League networks, where 3:31:23.680 --> 3:31:24.720 they would do that, but like. 3:31:24.720 --> 3:31:26.760 This, I mean, I wonder if they would consider stuff 3:31:26.760 --> 3:31:29.920 like traveling to like Rojava, right a leftist traveling to Rojava, 3:31:30.000 --> 3:31:33.000 or traveling to like you know, see like Zapatista's right. 3:31:33.080 --> 3:31:35.320 If that's kind of what he's thinking of, or if 3:31:35.360 --> 3:31:37.720 he's even thinking about it in like a real literal way. 3:31:37.680 --> 3:31:40.080 I can tell you specifically what he's thinking about in this. 3:31:40.160 --> 3:31:42.000 I mean he's thinking about two things. He's trying to 3:31:42.080 --> 3:31:45.480 directly draw a comparison for political purposes to the influencers 3:31:45.480 --> 3:31:47.960 who went out of to Cuba recently. But the thing 3:31:48.000 --> 3:31:50.200 that he is actually thinking about is the way a 3:31:50.280 --> 3:31:52.560 chunk of the global far left worked in like the 3:31:52.600 --> 3:31:55.400 sixties and seventies. Kadafi trained the IRA right Like there 3:31:55.400 --> 3:31:57.119 were a lot of like web not all of them, 3:31:57.120 --> 3:31:59.400 but like there was people did travel from left wing 3:31:59.440 --> 3:32:02.240 groups to other places and then carried out attacks in 3:32:02.320 --> 3:32:04.640 other countries. That was a thing that occurred during what 3:32:04.800 --> 3:32:07.520 is often called the Golden Age of terrorism. This is 3:32:07.520 --> 3:32:10.680 a lot of this is just more Marco not leaving 3:32:10.720 --> 3:32:14.520 the seventies behind. Like even though again it's fifty years 3:32:14.600 --> 3:32:16.760 since that kind of shit's been going on almost and 3:32:16.840 --> 3:32:22.520 Kadafi's dead, like the IRA isn't exactly active anymore either. 3:32:23.280 --> 3:32:27.520 We'll return to talk more about far left transnational terrorism 3:32:28.000 --> 3:32:29.439 after this at break. 3:32:42.000 --> 3:32:42.920 We are back. 3:32:43.040 --> 3:32:47.760 There's one last part about this antifa far left terrorism 3:32:47.840 --> 3:32:49.960 summit that happened at the State Department that I want 3:32:49.959 --> 3:32:52.199 to hone in on, and that is the remarks made 3:32:52.200 --> 3:32:57.039 by Stephen Miller. So brace yourself for a short clip 3:32:57.080 --> 3:32:57.879 of Miller here. 3:32:58.879 --> 3:33:03.040 President Trump issued it directive. In our parlance, it's called 3:33:03.400 --> 3:33:08.920 a National Security Presidential Memorandum or NSPN NSPM seven to 3:33:09.000 --> 3:33:12.640 be exact. That directs, for the first time in American history, 3:33:13.480 --> 3:33:16.959 all of our law enforcement and intelligence agencies to work 3:33:17.040 --> 3:33:25.760 together to disrupt, identify, defund, debank, arrest, and prosecute these 3:33:25.800 --> 3:33:29.360 political terrorists that are operating in our country. There's no 3:33:29.800 --> 3:33:32.879 point at which the left wing terrorist is satisfied with 3:33:32.959 --> 3:33:38.400 his gains and ceases progressing inevitably left to run its course, 3:33:38.920 --> 3:33:42.119 it always becomes a gulag. It always becomes the mass 3:33:42.160 --> 3:33:46.959 imprisonment of political enemies, the stripping of their rights and freedoms, 3:33:48.400 --> 3:33:54.760 inflicting immense pain, humiliation, suffering. In order to establish complete 3:33:55.200 --> 3:34:01.640 and total control control through psychological and physical and actual terror. 3:34:02.560 --> 3:34:06.800 We must disrupt, identify, defund dbank, arrest and prosecute these 3:34:06.840 --> 3:34:10.040 political terrorists, or else they will turn the country into 3:34:10.120 --> 3:34:13.880 a goolage and conduct the mass imprisonment of political enemies 3:34:14.200 --> 3:34:16.959 and establish total psychological control. 3:34:17.440 --> 3:34:19.280 It's just that we must do the genocide before they 3:34:19.320 --> 3:34:20.800 do the genocide against us thing. 3:34:21.480 --> 3:34:24.360 And that is a lot of how Miller and the 3:34:24.360 --> 3:34:26.840 Ambassador for the Counter Terrorist and Bureau talk about this, 3:34:26.879 --> 3:34:29.279 So like, we need to stop this before it gets bigger. 3:34:29.320 --> 3:34:31.880 We know it seems kind of small right now, but 3:34:31.920 --> 3:34:34.520 by the time that everyone realizes this is a huge threat, 3:34:34.600 --> 3:34:35.400 then it's already too late. 3:34:35.520 --> 3:34:36.400 Then we've already lost. 3:34:36.600 --> 3:34:38.520 We have to end this thing right now as it 3:34:38.600 --> 3:34:40.720 still is like an infant, like we cannot let this 3:34:40.760 --> 3:34:42.600 thing grow up. That is very much how he talks 3:34:42.640 --> 3:34:46.320 about it. And he is really frustrated about the way 3:34:46.360 --> 3:34:48.680 that attempts by the rep administration to do this have 3:34:48.840 --> 3:34:52.320 been curtailed or I've not been able to really be 3:34:52.320 --> 3:34:54.200 followed through on to the extent that he wants. And 3:34:54.520 --> 3:34:57.400 she has a specific thing that's been happening that he's 3:34:57.440 --> 3:35:00.400 really upset about. And that's a little term some people 3:35:00.400 --> 3:35:03.359 in the audience might be familiar with called jury nullification. 3:35:04.800 --> 3:35:11.080 There's a real threat that those who are not themselves terrorists, 3:35:11.600 --> 3:35:17.800 but who support left wing violence will create the conditions 3:35:17.800 --> 3:35:22.199 that allow that violence to go on without any meaningful inhibition. 3:35:22.360 --> 3:35:25.840 So to be specific, we've seen some of our nation's 3:35:25.840 --> 3:35:28.920 cities in America, like Washington, d C. In New York City. 3:35:29.240 --> 3:35:31.520 Something is gain as an American term, but it's known 3:35:31.560 --> 3:35:34.400 as jury nullification. This is when a person is obviously 3:35:34.400 --> 3:35:37.920 guilty of a crime, but the jury, because they're ideologically 3:35:37.959 --> 3:35:42.840 sympathetical sympathetic to the perpetrator, will not sentence them to 3:35:42.879 --> 3:35:45.640 the crime which have obviously committed. We've seen in the 3:35:45.680 --> 3:35:49.080 United States again and again individuals who are part of 3:35:49.160 --> 3:35:52.840 lefting organizations who've committed the saults against ice officers or 3:35:52.879 --> 3:35:55.959 federal law enforcement, who have been brought to court where 3:35:56.040 --> 3:35:59.000 clear evidence has been presented against them, that the jury 3:35:59.360 --> 3:36:03.920 has refused to convict for purely political reasons. When you've 3:36:03.920 --> 3:36:07.920 reached that point, it demonstrates how deeply the cancer has 3:36:07.959 --> 3:36:09.359 begun to infest your society. 3:36:09.400 --> 3:36:12.680 According to a new report in Just Security, quote, nearly 3:36:12.720 --> 3:36:15.720 half the cases nationwide brought against protesters and immigrants for 3:36:15.760 --> 3:36:19.080 assault against a law enforcement officer or dismissed by judges, 3:36:19.120 --> 3:36:22.720 with drawn by prosecutors, or resulted in jury acquittals, and 3:36:22.760 --> 3:36:26.720 at least eighteen publicly reported instances grand juries have refused 3:36:26.760 --> 3:36:30.480 to indict, at least sixteen grand jury subpoenas have been 3:36:30.480 --> 3:36:33.520 blocked or withdrawn, and judges have dismissed or prosecutors have 3:36:33.560 --> 3:36:36.879 dropped at least seventy nine cases relating to ice protests 3:36:37.160 --> 3:36:40.480 or federal law enforcement surgis across DC, Chicago, Minnesota, and 3:36:40.560 --> 3:36:43.280 Los Angeles. In a period of two months, the US 3:36:43.280 --> 3:36:45.800 Attorney's Office in DC dropped more cases than it had 3:36:45.840 --> 3:36:49.600 in the previous ten years combined, unquote. And that also 3:36:49.640 --> 3:36:52.720 shows the scale in which they're bringing these cases against protesters. 3:36:53.440 --> 3:36:56.160 This is something that Miller is really upset about. This 3:36:56.200 --> 3:36:59.320 is something that is severely prohibiting the administration's ability to 3:36:59.840 --> 3:37:02.920 go after quote unquote left wing terrorism, what they view 3:37:02.920 --> 3:37:05.800 as left wing terrorism, and he's really frustrated about this. 3:37:05.959 --> 3:37:07.680 Here's one last quote from him. 3:37:08.080 --> 3:37:08.520 Quote. 3:37:08.680 --> 3:37:10.920 One of the hallmarks of left wing violence and terrorism 3:37:10.959 --> 3:37:15.160 is it's completely protectual and disingenuous appeal to civil liberties 3:37:15.160 --> 3:37:18.000 in an effort to shield its own violence. This is 3:37:18.040 --> 3:37:20.200 the tactic that the left always uses to try to 3:37:20.240 --> 3:37:24.160 protect itself from facing criminal punishment. It is essential that 3:37:24.160 --> 3:37:26.360 we are wise enough and strong enough to understand that 3:37:26.400 --> 3:37:30.119 these appeals must fall on deaf ears. We must say 3:37:30.120 --> 3:37:32.800 the course and be completely unflinching in the pursuit of 3:37:32.959 --> 3:37:37.960 justice against these enemies of civilization. Unquote, and Miller and 3:37:38.040 --> 3:37:42.000 Rubio went on pretty lengthy rants about how the threat 3:37:42.000 --> 3:37:45.520 of left wing violence really is this civilizational threat against 3:37:45.520 --> 3:37:48.000 what is beautiful and what is good and what is natural. 3:37:48.040 --> 3:37:51.720 It's a quote from Miller against this like ugly hatred 3:37:52.040 --> 3:37:54.840 that fuels the left, this sort of like you know, 3:37:54.879 --> 3:37:57.600 like resentment for like failing at life, and now they 3:37:57.600 --> 3:37:59.720 want to attack those of us who like succeed, those 3:37:59.760 --> 3:38:03.200 of us who like build very fascistic like stuff. At 3:38:03.200 --> 3:38:04.119 the end of both their. 3:38:04.040 --> 3:38:07.440 Speeches, very and also very Bin Shapiro stuff. To be honest, 3:38:07.480 --> 3:38:09.720 the whole builders and takers thing. I mean, he didn't 3:38:09.720 --> 3:38:12.840 start that, but it is interesting to see there's so 3:38:12.920 --> 3:38:15.240 many old throwbacks to this because you can tell these 3:38:15.440 --> 3:38:17.680 these are guys who get started in writing politics before 3:38:17.720 --> 3:38:20.840 the current era, because they keep hearkening back to stuff 3:38:20.879 --> 3:38:23.520 that's just like not as big a part of like 3:38:23.560 --> 3:38:26.879 the modern vernacular, which is always interesting to me, like 3:38:26.920 --> 3:38:28.760 how stuck a lot of these guys are in the past. 3:38:30.200 --> 3:38:34.920 At a post conference press conference for Foreign Press, the 3:38:35.000 --> 3:38:38.480 Coordinator and ambassad at Large for the Bureau kinter Terrorism 3:38:38.920 --> 3:38:41.800 reiterated that the us kinter Terrism strategy is still focusing 3:38:41.840 --> 3:38:44.920 on three main types of threat groups Narco terrorists, Islamic 3:38:44.920 --> 3:38:48.000 corgiatis terrorists, and far left terrorists, and that they need 3:38:48.040 --> 3:38:51.840 to quote identify terror actors and plots before they happen. 3:38:53.080 --> 3:38:56.039 He calls far left terrorism a resurgent threat with a 3:38:56.040 --> 3:38:59.000 clear upward trend and that they are quote committed to 3:38:59.080 --> 3:39:02.680 addressing it before it metastasizes that they want to halt 3:39:02.800 --> 3:39:06.080 this scourge before it grows into something larger, more unified, 3:39:06.120 --> 3:39:10.520 and more deadly. The Ambassador outlined three concrete outcomes from 3:39:10.640 --> 3:39:14.800 this conference. The first was on designations and accountability, and 3:39:15.120 --> 3:39:19.840 like Rubio, he promised that additional foreign terrorist organizations and 3:39:19.879 --> 3:39:23.240 specially designated global terrorist designations for quote unquote far left 3:39:23.280 --> 3:39:26.160 groups are under active review and are going to be 3:39:26.200 --> 3:39:30.240 incoming soon, following the four designations of europe based groups 3:39:30.280 --> 3:39:32.600 last year. So there's going to be more left wing 3:39:32.720 --> 3:39:36.720 or Antifa related groups designated as foreign terrorist organizations. UH 3:39:38.040 --> 3:39:43.600 Secretary Besent talked about how legitimate nonprofit and charitable structures 3:39:43.720 --> 3:39:46.480 are being quote exploited as a mechanism to conceal the 3:39:46.520 --> 3:39:51.080 movement of illicit funds to support political terrorism, and the 3:39:51.120 --> 3:39:55.240 ambassador talked about how international partners are discussing prospects quote 3:39:55.280 --> 3:39:57.879 allowing their own legal frameworks to ensure that these networks 3:39:57.879 --> 3:40:01.080 cannot simply relocate across borders. As a part of these 3:40:01.280 --> 3:40:04.600 terrorist designations, the Treasury's Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence 3:40:04.720 --> 3:40:07.760 will take steps to dismantle the funding which sustains these groups, 3:40:08.400 --> 3:40:11.080 and the state departments also offering payments it up to 3:40:11.120 --> 3:40:15.440 ten million dollars for information disrupting far left terrorist financing. 3:40:16.040 --> 3:40:18.760 The second outcome of the conference was on operational coordination, 3:40:19.040 --> 3:40:22.280 like deepening information sharing between partner agencies and coordinating on 3:40:22.320 --> 3:40:26.039 travel restrictions and strengthening the protection of critical infrastructure like 3:40:26.160 --> 3:40:29.879 transportation and energy systems. It was also announced that Germany 3:40:29.959 --> 3:40:34.160 would host the next quote unquote counter Terrorism Workshop. The 3:40:34.240 --> 3:40:39.240 last concrete outcome of this event was new visa restrictions 3:40:39.320 --> 3:40:43.440 quote targeting members of far left terrorists and aligned groups. 3:40:44.640 --> 3:40:48.279 For more on that, Let's throw to our colleague James 3:40:48.280 --> 3:40:50.160 Stout Hi one. 3:40:50.200 --> 3:40:53.560 It's James coming at you with the second attempt to 3:40:53.560 --> 3:40:56.560 record this. Find myself traveling every Wednesday at the moment, 3:40:56.959 --> 3:40:59.800 so apologies for missing out on According to everyone else, 3:41:00.000 --> 3:41:02.560 will be back next week a promise, and we will 3:41:02.640 --> 3:41:06.080 return to our usual shared conversation. But I did want 3:41:06.080 --> 3:41:07.640 to check in with everyone this week because I want 3:41:07.680 --> 3:41:10.680 to talk about a couple of things. Last week, for 3:41:10.720 --> 3:41:12.840 the first time in its history, the United States government 3:41:12.840 --> 3:41:15.560 attempted to remove someone through the use of the Alien 3:41:15.760 --> 3:41:19.400 Terrorist Removal Court. This is something that was first published 3:41:19.440 --> 3:41:21.320 by Shamus Hues at Court Works, and I want to 3:41:21.320 --> 3:41:24.040 give credit Bok credits you Shame of Spenser on godly 3:41:24.040 --> 3:41:27.199 amount of time looking at PACER and other court documents 3:41:27.280 --> 3:41:28.320 have found this, so. 3:41:28.320 --> 3:41:29.240 Background Ond's court right. 3:41:29.240 --> 3:41:31.560 It's established in nineteen ninety six by the Anti Terrorism 3:41:31.640 --> 3:41:35.359 and Effective Death Penalty Act. That law allows the Attorney 3:41:35.400 --> 3:41:37.440 General to designate some of the terrorists and use this 3:41:37.560 --> 3:41:39.960 process if Title two removal will be a threat to 3:41:40.040 --> 3:41:44.920 national security. Now the hearings in the ATRC, I will 3:41:44.959 --> 3:41:48.760 say they fly extremely close to the sun with regards 3:41:48.760 --> 3:41:52.440 to constitutional rights and the concept of a fair trial. 3:41:53.000 --> 3:41:54.920 There are lots of. 3:41:55.440 --> 3:41:59.080 Provisions in this law for classified evidence, for restrictions on 3:41:59.120 --> 3:42:01.519 the things that the deffect and can obtained by discovery. 3:42:01.879 --> 3:42:04.840 The law also says, quote, an alien subject to removal 3:42:04.920 --> 3:42:07.680 under this Title shall not be entitled to suppress evidence 3:42:07.680 --> 3:42:11.560 that the alien alleges was unlawfully obtained. That's great stuff. 3:42:11.720 --> 3:42:14.120 It's just worth noting nineteen ninety six is before the 3:42:14.120 --> 3:42:18.640 start of the Global War on Terror, and it therefore 3:42:18.680 --> 3:42:22.440 pre dates the existence of the prison camp at Guantanamo Bay. 3:42:22.480 --> 3:42:24.600 At the United States had a base at Guantanamo Bay, 3:42:24.680 --> 3:42:29.320 but the large scale extra judicial torturing of people, what 3:42:29.360 --> 3:42:32.480 they called enhanced interrogation at Guantanamobe, had not begun in 3:42:32.520 --> 3:42:33.320 nineteen ninety six. 3:42:33.400 --> 3:42:33.520 Right. 3:42:33.560 --> 3:42:36.520 I'm not saying that they were not doing extra judicial 3:42:36.560 --> 3:42:38.720 things in nineteen ninety six. I'm just saying that the 3:42:39.280 --> 3:42:41.240 GITMO as we understand it today, for those of us 3:42:41.280 --> 3:42:43.680 who have grown up with it as a political reality 3:42:43.720 --> 3:42:45.760 for most a adult lives, didn't exist in that sense. 3:42:45.800 --> 3:42:46.080 Then. 3:42:46.600 --> 3:42:48.480 I'm not saying that they were not people detained there. 3:42:48.560 --> 3:42:49.280 They probably were. 3:42:49.520 --> 3:42:51.560 I'm not saying they did not do extra judicial things 3:42:51.560 --> 3:42:53.440 in pursuit of quote, unquite aity terrorism. 3:42:53.560 --> 3:42:54.280 I believe they did. 3:42:54.800 --> 3:42:58.879 Boseberg mentioned this court Judge Boseburg remember him from the 3:42:58.959 --> 3:43:03.440 El Salwardore Sicott cases, when he told the government that 3:43:03.480 --> 3:43:06.280 there was a procedure for someone accused of terrorism because 3:43:06.320 --> 3:43:08.840 the government basically said, oh, well, these people are terrorists. 3:43:08.920 --> 3:43:09.280 Look at that. 3:43:09.320 --> 3:43:11.080 We put them on a plane, send them to a 3:43:11.120 --> 3:43:13.080 death camp in ensemble or essentially right a prison that 3:43:13.160 --> 3:43:15.120 very few people leave. Eventually, most of these people did 3:43:15.240 --> 3:43:17.800 leave in this case, but it was very unusual for 3:43:17.800 --> 3:43:21.520 someone to leave that camp. And what he said was 3:43:21.959 --> 3:43:24.680 quote so if there's a national security concern with having 3:43:24.760 --> 3:43:28.560 these hearings, whether via Habeis or otherwise, you can always 3:43:28.600 --> 3:43:30.680 go to the ATRC, which will be a first but 3:43:30.680 --> 3:43:31.440 that's what it's there for. 3:43:31.560 --> 3:43:31.760 Right. 3:43:32.120 --> 3:43:34.400 So at the time he's pointing to it, saying, if 3:43:34.400 --> 3:43:37.560 you can't put the evidence for these people's the need 3:43:37.560 --> 3:43:38.960 to remove these people out in public. 3:43:39.040 --> 3:43:41.080 That's why we have the ATRC. When't use that. 3:43:41.280 --> 3:43:44.720 Trump administration said we can use that, that does. 3:43:44.560 --> 3:43:46.800 Not mean we have to use that, And that was 3:43:46.840 --> 3:43:47.720 their argument, right. 3:43:48.280 --> 3:43:52.520 The court is of not just people engage in terrorism. 3:43:52.520 --> 3:43:55.760 It's also their families. It's also people accused of things 3:43:55.840 --> 3:43:59.000 like soliciting others to engage in actus terrorism or raising funds. 3:43:59.440 --> 3:44:02.120 It also is that once a person they've submitted an 3:44:02.120 --> 3:44:04.600 application for removal through this court, they can detain a person. 3:44:05.160 --> 3:44:07.720 The court has this crazy website. It looks like it 3:44:07.760 --> 3:44:11.320 was very hastily created. It's not a usual website for 3:44:11.400 --> 3:44:13.879 a court at all. Usually court websites that they were 3:44:13.920 --> 3:44:16.400 made in the late nineteen nineties. They are very difficult 3:44:16.440 --> 3:44:18.920 to navigate and they have a huge amount of data 3:44:19.240 --> 3:44:21.760 that it's hard to find. That's why a lot of 3:44:21.800 --> 3:44:24.600 us like to use court Listener or some other website 3:44:24.840 --> 3:44:28.040 rather than going directly to the court pages, which can 3:44:28.040 --> 3:44:30.720 be very hard to navigate. This page lists of judges, 3:44:30.720 --> 3:44:32.959 where each of the judges comes from a different US circuit, 3:44:33.200 --> 3:44:36.080 and it has the two documents that the court has 3:44:36.200 --> 3:44:39.720 made available so far. One is pretty much all blanked out. 3:44:39.959 --> 3:44:41.920 The other one is a court order in which Court 3:44:42.000 --> 3:44:44.879 Chief Judge asserts, quote, the government could benefit from an 3:44:44.879 --> 3:44:48.000 opportunity for more thoughtful consideration, So they've made an application 3:44:48.040 --> 3:44:50.160 to remove someone by this court. And that is a 3:44:50.200 --> 3:44:54.800 response of the court at this time right. Obviously, this 3:44:54.920 --> 3:44:59.600 is very concerning right. Immigration court, to begin with, I 3:44:59.640 --> 3:45:03.640 think is getting closer and closer to being something that 3:45:03.720 --> 3:45:06.959 is sort of openly flouting the Constitution and people's rights. 3:45:07.000 --> 3:45:09.520 There immigration judges are not judges in the sense that 3:45:09.560 --> 3:45:12.640 you understand judges to be, even though some of them 3:45:12.680 --> 3:45:15.280 have worked hard to give people due process and many 3:45:15.320 --> 3:45:18.800 of them are now being removed wanted demise because of them. 3:45:19.200 --> 3:45:21.720 But if we look at this in addition to the 3:45:21.840 --> 3:45:25.200 United States adding groups in Mexico and Europe to the 3:45:25.320 --> 3:45:28.760 FTO list Foreign Terrorist Organizations for those who aren't familiar, 3:45:28.959 --> 3:45:31.440 it's especially concerning right. And it's especially concerning when we 3:45:31.520 --> 3:45:36.520 look another announcement this week which explicitly cited NSPM seven, 3:45:36.520 --> 3:45:40.320 which we've spoken about lengths on this show, limiting visas 3:45:40.320 --> 3:45:44.119 for people it calls anti fascist and far left terrorist groups. 3:45:44.400 --> 3:45:47.200 The announcement began going to quote from extensively here, right, 3:45:47.400 --> 3:45:50.840 far left terrorists and aligned groups do sophisticated organized networks 3:45:50.840 --> 3:45:54.160 to perpetrate violence as a political tool, seeking to implement 3:45:54.200 --> 3:45:58.480 an extreme political vision through intimidation and coordinated campaigns of terror. 3:45:59.000 --> 3:46:01.760 It is a strategy that explicitly aims to undermine the 3:46:01.800 --> 3:46:06.400 political foundations of free and self governing societies, utilizing bombings, assassinations, 3:46:06.440 --> 3:46:10.280 and other forms of terrorism to silence speech, limit political opposition, 3:46:10.720 --> 3:46:14.920 change policy outcomes, and sabotage political processes. This announcement also 3:46:14.920 --> 3:46:17.360 said that it's quote targets members of far left terrorists 3:46:17.360 --> 3:46:20.160 and other aligned groups who have supported or incited acts 3:46:20.160 --> 3:46:24.640 of terrorism, supported violent criminal activity, participated in economic sabotage, 3:46:24.720 --> 3:46:27.879 financial recruited or provide logistical support for violent or criminal actions, 3:46:27.920 --> 3:46:31.000 cremated by far left terrorists and other aligning groups, and 3:46:31.280 --> 3:46:34.160 or facilitated the convergence of far left terrorists and other 3:46:34.200 --> 3:46:37.560 aligned networks for the purposes of violent action. Some of 3:46:37.560 --> 3:46:41.600 these are pretty broad right economic sabotage normally altso Ludicris 3:46:41.640 --> 3:46:43.800 suggests that like that could include bds. But I think 3:46:43.800 --> 3:46:46.800 given where we are, it's not crazy to think that, right, 3:46:46.920 --> 3:46:49.760 some of these facilitating the conversions. Right, is that like 3:46:49.879 --> 3:46:55.480 holding a big summit, is like the logistical support for 3:46:55.560 --> 3:46:59.280 violent criminal actions? Does that mean bail funds all of 3:46:59.320 --> 3:47:01.920 these things ash bail? I guess it's less of a 3:47:01.959 --> 3:47:03.840 thing outside the US. Does that mean people who have 3:47:03.879 --> 3:47:06.600 done jail support, right? That kind of thing. This is 3:47:06.959 --> 3:47:11.440 super concerning. The State Department explicitly cites Section two twelve, 3:47:11.520 --> 3:47:14.680 Subsection A, Part three, Subsection C of the Immigration and 3:47:14.760 --> 3:47:18.520 Nationality Act, which deals with the inadmissibility of aliens. This 3:47:18.640 --> 3:47:21.920 section begins quote, an alien whose entry or proposed activities 3:47:21.959 --> 3:47:24.840 in the United States Secretary of State has reasonable ground 3:47:24.920 --> 3:47:29.240 to believe have potentially serious adverse foreign policy consequences for 3:47:29.320 --> 3:47:31.080 the United States is inadmissible. 3:47:31.520 --> 3:47:34.040 So that's a very very broad category. 3:47:34.120 --> 3:47:34.280 Right. 3:47:34.360 --> 3:47:39.720 Notably, it is not sub section B, which deals specifically 3:47:39.760 --> 3:47:42.520 with terrorism or which terrorists are admissible. This is a 3:47:42.520 --> 3:47:45.119 different one which deals with this very broad power given 3:47:45.200 --> 3:47:48.160 to the Secretary of State to decide whose admission would 3:47:48.160 --> 3:47:50.920 be bad for the United States foreign policy consequences they've 3:47:51.000 --> 3:47:53.400 used just before. Right, this is a favorite of this administration. 3:47:53.480 --> 3:47:56.000 But again, right, this is an example of a law 3:47:56.040 --> 3:47:59.520 which gives massive leeway to in this case part of 3:47:59.520 --> 3:48:04.080 the executive branch, Secretary of State, and it is therefore 3:48:04.920 --> 3:48:08.000 he's using that leeway right to do this. I think 3:48:08.480 --> 3:48:12.280 that we should be especially concerned when we combine this 3:48:13.080 --> 3:48:15.840 with some of the other things that we're seeing. Right, 3:48:15.959 --> 3:48:19.080 we are seeing social media surveys of applicants right, people 3:48:19.120 --> 3:48:21.320 have to submit their whole social media before they apply. 3:48:22.040 --> 3:48:24.080 We are seeing phone searches at the border more and 3:48:24.120 --> 3:48:27.080 more frequently, right, famously the JD Vance meme, but it's 3:48:27.120 --> 3:48:29.840 not uncommon to see these phone searches at the border now. 3:48:30.440 --> 3:48:34.480 We have also seen this week the elimination of duration 3:48:34.560 --> 3:48:37.520 of status for a number of visas, F ones being 3:48:37.520 --> 3:48:40.000 probably the most numerous, F one being a student visa right. 3:48:40.040 --> 3:48:42.960 Also some foreign journalists visas. Other visa types as well 3:48:43.000 --> 3:48:44.720 included there, but I want to focus on the F 3:48:44.760 --> 3:48:46.400 one because I think that will be the one that 3:48:46.440 --> 3:48:50.240 impacts the most people. So generally, with a F one visa, 3:48:50.280 --> 3:48:53.120 once you maintained status are once you are still in school, 3:48:54.280 --> 3:48:57.600 you could keep your student visa right now, These include 3:48:57.640 --> 3:48:59.920 like a time limit on the duration of the visa. 3:49:00.400 --> 3:49:02.879 For some people, this will be a serious issue if 3:49:02.879 --> 3:49:05.960 you are entering, For example, to speaking from experience here, 3:49:06.040 --> 3:49:08.520 if you are entering a program in the United States 3:49:08.560 --> 3:49:13.080 in the humanities, and you are entering with a bachelor's 3:49:13.080 --> 3:49:15.440 degree right, not a master's degree. 3:49:15.440 --> 3:49:16.800 You will then have to. 3:49:18.320 --> 3:49:21.520 Advance to candidacy right, complete the requirements for your master's degree, 3:49:21.560 --> 3:49:23.680 and demonstrate competency in two languages. 3:49:24.080 --> 3:49:26.400 Let's assume you are not someone who is multilingual. That 3:49:26.400 --> 3:49:27.120 could take a while. 3:49:27.240 --> 3:49:29.720 Right Like, depending on how strict the testing is at 3:49:29.760 --> 3:49:32.240 the particular university you go to, then you will have 3:49:32.280 --> 3:49:33.920 to research, then you will have to write, then you 3:49:33.960 --> 3:49:37.080 will have to do a dissertation. These time limits on 3:49:37.120 --> 3:49:39.560 the F one and visa are less than the nominal 3:49:39.640 --> 3:49:43.320 time to degree at some institutions, and that means that 3:49:43.360 --> 3:49:46.840 it's going to be very hard for graduate students, especially 3:49:46.880 --> 3:49:50.320 to come to the United States to do those degrees. 3:49:50.920 --> 3:49:55.920 That combined with this denial of visa's thing is going 3:49:55.920 --> 3:49:58.160 to have an impact on the way campuses look in 3:49:58.240 --> 3:49:59.960 the United States, and it's going to have a broader impact. 3:50:00.040 --> 3:50:02.040 And that, of course it is. But this is a 3:50:02.080 --> 3:50:04.160 thing that I have direct experience with. Right. 3:50:04.720 --> 3:50:09.800 F one student visas are numerous. I've taught dozens, if 3:50:09.840 --> 3:50:12.120 not hundreds of F one students. I came on a 3:50:12.120 --> 3:50:15.040 student visa when I did my PhD. And like, one 3:50:15.080 --> 3:50:16.960 of the reasons that people come here, and this is 3:50:18.240 --> 3:50:20.800 something that I've heard from so many people, is that, like, 3:50:20.840 --> 3:50:23.080 this country has a Bill of rights, and the very 3:50:23.280 --> 3:50:26.000 first amendment to the Constitution guaranteed freedom of speech, and 3:50:26.000 --> 3:50:29.160 that isn't the case everywhere. That is a thing that 3:50:29.440 --> 3:50:34.160 is good, but it is more and more and more 3:50:34.320 --> 3:50:36.840 under attack, especially for foreign students. 3:50:36.960 --> 3:50:37.040 Right. 3:50:37.080 --> 3:50:39.040 We've seen this right from the very beginning of a 3:50:39.080 --> 3:50:42.000 Trump administration, and I believe that this will be part 3:50:42.040 --> 3:50:44.040 of that same attack. Right, when we look at all 3:50:44.080 --> 3:50:47.600 these things together, these are the clearest signposts we have 3:50:47.720 --> 3:50:50.360 seen yet to the new McCarthyism. 3:50:50.520 --> 3:50:50.680 Right. 3:50:51.360 --> 3:50:53.440 We can talk about what Rubio said about Cuba, we 3:50:53.480 --> 3:50:55.760 can talk about this Antifa summit, which I will talk 3:50:55.760 --> 3:50:58.880 about soon in more depth, but it is not hard 3:50:59.240 --> 3:51:02.880 to draw a line, for instance, the prosecution and the 3:51:02.920 --> 3:51:06.760 persecution outside the legal system of Lincoln Brigadiers, right, people 3:51:06.760 --> 3:51:09.760 who volunteered to fight fascism in Spain, to what is 3:51:09.800 --> 3:51:14.320 happening today. And it is sad but not shocking to 3:51:14.360 --> 3:51:17.960 see yet another shameful aspect of this country's history resurfacing 3:51:18.320 --> 3:51:21.840 and becoming policy again. So I guess I'll just finish 3:51:21.880 --> 3:51:24.120 up by saying, if this has impacted you, if you 3:51:24.120 --> 3:51:26.440 are someone who's recently had a visa refused, if you 3:51:26.480 --> 3:51:28.040 are somebody who was trying to get in an if 3:51:28.080 --> 3:51:30.840 one visa and it's now finding shit. I don't think 3:51:30.840 --> 3:51:32.680 I can do my degree in that much time. 3:51:33.080 --> 3:51:35.840 What do I do here? I always want to. 3:51:35.920 --> 3:51:39.600 Tell stories about people, not just about government announcements. So 3:51:39.640 --> 3:51:42.120 you can hit us up cool Zone tips at proton 3:51:42.200 --> 3:51:44.920 dot me if you'd like to talk about that. Thanks, 3:51:44.960 --> 3:51:47.680 and I'll be back with everybody next week. 3:51:48.920 --> 3:51:53.080 We will discuss tariffs and even more far left terrorism 3:51:53.560 --> 3:51:54.720 after this ad break. 3:52:07.960 --> 3:52:11.280 We're back. So earlier this week, the US State Department 3:52:11.360 --> 3:52:13.880 put out a one hundred page report this would be 3:52:14.000 --> 3:52:19.000 on Monday, about Cuba's history of trying to overthrow or 3:52:19.040 --> 3:52:23.920 manipulate US politics via left wing activists and quote unquote 3:52:23.960 --> 3:52:26.520 left wing militants going back to the sixties. When they 3:52:26.520 --> 3:52:28.360 say going back to the sixties, basically what I mean 3:52:28.440 --> 3:52:31.000 is pretty much exclusively the sixties and seventies. Is almost 3:52:31.000 --> 3:52:33.440 everything in this document that relates to the US directly 3:52:33.560 --> 3:52:37.360 in any way. The document, which is basically this is 3:52:37.800 --> 3:52:39.360 just to give you a little bit of background. This 3:52:39.400 --> 3:52:42.680 is all Rubio, right, not just what Gerre has been 3:52:42.680 --> 3:52:45.640 talking about, but particularly trying to drum up fear and 3:52:45.680 --> 3:52:49.640 panic around Cuba and justify an invasion or regime change 3:52:49.680 --> 3:52:52.640 in Cuba. That's been his whole fucking life goal for 3:52:52.720 --> 3:52:55.400 a very long time. There's a pretty good Guardian article 3:52:55.440 --> 3:52:58.320 from last year with the title Marco Rubio Niar's goal 3:52:58.360 --> 3:53:01.520 of toppling Cuba's government, and I want to read a 3:53:01.520 --> 3:53:04.400 brief quote from that. The campaign against Cuba's government is 3:53:04.440 --> 3:53:06.960 the culmination of a personal pursuit spanning decades. In a 3:53:07.040 --> 3:53:09.640 video released on Cuban Independence Day this week, Rubio said 3:53:09.680 --> 3:53:11.720 in Spanish that a US embargo was not the reason 3:53:11.760 --> 3:53:14.680 for the country's privations, telling Cubans that currently the only 3:53:14.720 --> 3:53:16.320 thing standing in the way of a better future are 3:53:16.360 --> 3:53:18.960 those who control your country. All roads have been leading 3:53:19.000 --> 3:53:20.760 to Cuba for Rubio. Set a person who has known 3:53:20.840 --> 3:53:23.520 Rubio since his time as a local politician in South Florida. 3:53:23.680 --> 3:53:25.480 He has wanted this for a long time, and now 3:53:25.480 --> 3:53:29.080 he finally has the authority to reach that goal. Now. 3:53:29.760 --> 3:53:32.080 Trump has made a couple of comments that make people 3:53:32.120 --> 3:53:34.680 believe he is in the process of planning to try 3:53:34.680 --> 3:53:37.280 and force the government of Cuba out one way or another. 3:53:37.680 --> 3:53:40.480 Last Thursday, he told reporters other presidents have looked at 3:53:40.480 --> 3:53:43.440 this for fifty sixty years, doing something about Cuba, and 3:53:43.480 --> 3:53:45.040 it looks like I'll be the one that does it, 3:53:45.080 --> 3:53:47.400 so I would be happy to do it. Now hard 3:53:47.400 --> 3:53:49.360 to say is that actually means anything. Trump says a 3:53:49.400 --> 3:53:51.600 lot of stuff that doesn't come true, but there's been 3:53:51.800 --> 3:53:55.080 real world reasons to believe that he seriously intends to 3:53:55.120 --> 3:53:58.280 do this. I mean, first off, what happened in Venezuela, right, 3:53:58.320 --> 3:54:02.400 where we used our special operations forces to take out 3:54:02.520 --> 3:54:06.720 and extradite a legally elect it well, to extrite the 3:54:06.720 --> 3:54:09.000 president of a sovereign country. Right. This is something that 3:54:09.080 --> 3:54:11.680 like you've had like a lot of planners and depending 3:54:11.680 --> 3:54:13.280 on talking about for years, is like, well, we could 3:54:13.400 --> 3:54:16.440 use these guys to just deal with problems at the top, right. 3:54:17.040 --> 3:54:20.800 And for Rubio, there's a lot of speculation that Venezuela 3:54:20.840 --> 3:54:23.080 was kind of a proof of concept for him, right, 3:54:23.120 --> 3:54:25.800 that we could in fact use a very small footprint 3:54:25.840 --> 3:54:29.720 force get the current ruling regime out of there, or 3:54:29.840 --> 3:54:32.160 enough of them that they're not willing to fight back anymore. 3:54:32.520 --> 3:54:34.960 And that might be something that the US military is 3:54:35.000 --> 3:54:37.320 capable of doing. I don't have a great sense as 3:54:37.320 --> 3:54:40.440 to Cuba's defensive capacity or how functional they would be 3:54:40.920 --> 3:54:43.360 at doing this, or how much support the regime would 3:54:43.440 --> 3:54:45.160 enjoy in the event that the US try this, or 3:54:45.200 --> 3:54:46.960 how much that support would matter. It kind of depends 3:54:46.960 --> 3:54:49.640 on the weapons systems they use at the moment. We 3:54:49.760 --> 3:54:52.200 know that the US Nimics and its strike Group have 3:54:52.400 --> 3:54:54.800 recently been brought into the South Caribbean c as part 3:54:54.800 --> 3:54:57.400 of an ongoing military build up, and there have been 3:54:57.400 --> 3:55:00.000 some other signs that the regime is planning to act. 3:55:00.200 --> 3:55:04.360 Axios recently published an article that cited administration estimates that 3:55:04.400 --> 3:55:07.800 Cuba now has some three hundred military drones quote, and 3:55:07.960 --> 3:55:10.600 was considering using them to attack a US base at 3:55:10.640 --> 3:55:15.040 Guantanamo Bay, US ships or even targets in Florida, Miami. 3:55:15.280 --> 3:55:19.080 Your days are numbered now, folks. I'm going to walk 3:55:19.080 --> 3:55:22.000 you through some stuff. First off, we don't actually have 3:55:22.120 --> 3:55:24.480 hard evidence that they bought any of these drums. There 3:55:24.520 --> 3:55:26.320 was some earlier reporting, and I'm sure they have been 3:55:26.360 --> 3:55:28.360 talking with Iran, and I know that they have ongoing 3:55:28.440 --> 3:55:30.600 defense agreements with Russia, and I wouldn't be shocked if 3:55:30.600 --> 3:55:32.640 they had bought like three hundred of these, like Shihed 3:55:32.680 --> 3:55:36.480 style cheaper suicide drones. Here's the thing. The night before 3:55:36.520 --> 3:55:39.840 we recorded this, Ukraine launched a major attack on Moscow 3:55:40.560 --> 3:55:44.520 using four hundred drones. If Cuba does have three hundred 3:55:44.560 --> 3:55:47.320 Iranian drones, that is roughly enough to carry out an 3:55:47.320 --> 3:55:50.400 offensive against US forces for two to three seconds, perhaps 3:55:50.400 --> 3:55:53.000 a little more, maybe more like fifteen to twenty, you know, 3:55:53.280 --> 3:55:55.480 But it's not an invasion force. It's not really a 3:55:55.520 --> 3:55:58.560 defensive force. And we also don't know that they even 3:55:58.680 --> 3:56:01.520 have them, right, it wouldn't be weird if they did. 3:56:01.680 --> 3:56:03.880 But this isn't any reason to believe there's any kind 3:56:03.880 --> 3:56:05.680 of a threat coming from Cuba. The fact that they're 3:56:05.680 --> 3:56:08.960 trying to really hype up three hundred drones. It's twenty 3:56:09.040 --> 3:56:11.720 twenty six. You can run through that in an afternoon. 3:56:12.120 --> 3:56:12.320 Yeah. 3:56:12.320 --> 3:56:14.200 And also, like I just want to be very clear, 3:56:14.280 --> 3:56:17.560 Cuba is not planning to launch strikes in the United States. 3:56:17.640 --> 3:56:20.520 Come on, Like, you look at the last sixty years 3:56:20.560 --> 3:56:23.200 of history, right. We had one big dust up with 3:56:23.240 --> 3:56:25.880 them over the fucking Bay of Pigs, And obviously the 3:56:25.960 --> 3:56:28.920 Cuban government funded and sent soldiers and doctors and other 3:56:28.960 --> 3:56:30.760 stuff into a variety of countries, and that led to 3:56:30.760 --> 3:56:33.640 conflicts in places like Africa with the US. But there's 3:56:33.640 --> 3:56:37.960 never been any direct aggression from Cuba towards the United States. No, 3:56:38.120 --> 3:56:40.440 we're not in danger from them. One of the most 3:56:40.520 --> 3:56:43.160 ridiculous things you could do today is watch the celebrated 3:56:43.200 --> 3:56:46.600 Aaron Sorkin movie A Few Good Men, which is entirely 3:56:46.600 --> 3:56:49.120 about how well, you know, you don't understand how difficult 3:56:49.160 --> 3:56:51.120 it is protecting America from Cuba. 3:56:51.200 --> 3:56:53.440 You know, we really we got to be extra. 3:56:53.200 --> 3:56:55.720 Crazy to keep the Cubans off the walls of the 3:56:55.840 --> 3:57:00.360 United States. Like, it's fucking nonsense, And it's Marco is 3:57:00.480 --> 3:57:04.120 number one. Marco comes from a Cuban American background. His 3:57:04.200 --> 3:57:07.360 whole family hates the Castro government. He has wanted and 3:57:07.400 --> 3:57:10.800 seen himself as ordained to destroy the communist government in 3:57:10.800 --> 3:57:13.000 Cuba for his entire life. That doesn't mean that there's 3:57:13.000 --> 3:57:16.040 any kind of realistic threat here, or any real reason 3:57:16.120 --> 3:57:19.560 to feel like any kind of actual danger. And you 3:57:19.600 --> 3:57:22.360 can see that in the report itself. Right, there's even 3:57:22.400 --> 3:57:24.400 some bits here where they almost admit it. Right, I'm 3:57:24.400 --> 3:57:27.240 going to read one segment. The Cuban campaign against America 3:57:27.280 --> 3:57:29.400 is unique. It is a regular and covert Even at 3:57:29.440 --> 3:57:31.840 the peak of its military power, Havana never possessed the 3:57:31.840 --> 3:57:35.280 capacity to defeat the United States at a conventional armed conflict. Instead, 3:57:35.320 --> 3:57:37.520 the Cuban's perfected a new model for a long war 3:57:37.520 --> 3:57:41.600 of attrition organized around espionage, infiltration, sabotage, proxy networks, and 3:57:41.640 --> 3:57:44.840 a revolutionary infrastructure designed to turn America against itself. 3:57:45.080 --> 3:57:46.240 Did Cuba do that? 3:57:47.000 --> 3:57:50.400 Did Cuba turn America against itself? And also, if they've 3:57:50.400 --> 3:57:52.800 perfected a war of attrition, why are they out of gas? 3:57:53.440 --> 3:57:56.160 And like, the United States is the healthiest economy in 3:57:56.200 --> 3:57:58.160 the world. I mean, it's because we stole a bunch 3:57:58.200 --> 3:58:00.440 of shit, But there's no evidence that Cuban has done 3:58:00.440 --> 3:58:02.920 some sort of horrible damage to the US, and in fact, 3:58:02.960 --> 3:58:04.920 all of the damage says otherwise that we've continued to 3:58:04.960 --> 3:58:08.040 fuck over the Cubans for goddamn no reason for decades. 3:58:08.680 --> 3:58:10.880 It's incredibly frustrating. And again, the more you read this, 3:58:10.880 --> 3:58:13.440 the more you realize unless he's talking about like shit 3:58:13.480 --> 3:58:16.160 that because he does periodically talk about like fucking South 3:58:16.240 --> 3:58:19.000 America and some of the different like Cuban like state 3:58:19.080 --> 3:58:22.440 involvement there. But when he's talking about acts that can 3:58:22.480 --> 3:58:24.840 be traced to Cuba that involve violence in the US 3:58:24.880 --> 3:58:27.960 at all, it's just shit from the sixties and seventies, right, 3:58:28.200 --> 3:58:30.600 which is like back when Cuba's economy was functional, and 3:58:30.640 --> 3:58:33.440 they're the backing of the USSR. And also like none 3:58:33.480 --> 3:58:35.520 of it ever came close to doing serious damage to 3:58:35.520 --> 3:58:39.120 the United States as like a national like as a nation. Right, 3:58:39.400 --> 3:58:41.960 none of that was never in the fucking cards. You know, 3:58:42.440 --> 3:58:44.800 it's very frustrating to have to even take any of 3:58:44.840 --> 3:58:46.760 this serious, but you do because they are going to 3:58:46.800 --> 3:58:50.040 try to blame and try to punish and imprison people 3:58:50.080 --> 3:58:51.760 based on this fucking fantasy. 3:58:51.960 --> 3:58:52.160 Right. 3:58:52.880 --> 3:58:55.520 And one of the things you've seen a lot of quotes, 3:58:55.560 --> 3:58:57.440 like when Marco came up to talk and give a 3:58:57.440 --> 3:59:00.280 speech about this report, he accused Iron and cues Uba 3:59:00.320 --> 3:59:04.200 of funding both Antifa and the DSA. Right, Like, come on, 3:59:04.520 --> 3:59:07.200 and he'll make these comments in his speeches. The actual 3:59:07.240 --> 3:59:09.480 report isn't even willing to go that far, because when 3:59:09.520 --> 3:59:11.440 you get to the meat of the report, Marcito doesn't 3:59:11.480 --> 3:59:13.320 even have the guts to call the DSA a Cuban 3:59:13.400 --> 3:59:16.000 op quote. The DSA was not founded as a Cuban 3:59:16.040 --> 3:59:18.600 intelligence or influence front. It was born in nineteen eighty 3:59:18.600 --> 3:59:21.280 two as a fusion of socialist organizations and movements for 3:59:21.360 --> 3:59:24.360 both the Old Left and New Left. Factions, and you know, 3:59:24.560 --> 3:59:27.040 like they're right that people in the DSA are very 3:59:27.080 --> 3:59:29.320 angry about what the US is doing into Cuba because 3:59:29.320 --> 3:59:33.080 they're out of fuel and starving and being continually harmed 3:59:33.120 --> 3:59:38.040 by our completely pointless boycotts and trade fucking wars. Like, 3:59:38.080 --> 3:59:40.160 there's not much more than that for most people to it. 3:59:40.200 --> 3:59:41.600 There's some weirdos out there, But. 3:59:42.280 --> 3:59:46.440 It is really interesting how carefully the report talks about DSA, 3:59:46.480 --> 3:59:51.520 because like DSA's mentioned a lot, DSA is mentioned very frequently. 3:59:51.120 --> 3:59:52.440 But there's no direct connection. 3:59:52.680 --> 3:59:55.720 DSA's mentioned twenty four times in a one hundred page document, 3:59:56.000 --> 3:59:59.120 but they're very careful to be like DSA's could be 3:59:59.160 --> 4:00:02.360 sympathetic to the human government, but DSA is not a 4:00:02.520 --> 4:00:05.600 result of Cuban influence necessarily, No. 4:00:06.080 --> 4:00:08.520 And I think the argument they are making is that 4:00:08.840 --> 4:00:11.680 you had a split between the old left and the 4:00:11.760 --> 4:00:14.680 new Left, and the Cuban government founded a bunch of 4:00:14.760 --> 4:00:19.360 new left factions, and because the DSA is a fusion 4:00:19.400 --> 4:00:21.480 of old Left and new left factions, that means that 4:00:21.520 --> 4:00:24.560 they're partly a result of Cuban operation. Sure, that's what 4:00:24.600 --> 4:00:27.880 they're trying to argue, right, It's build some sort of 4:00:28.040 --> 4:00:32.080 historical justification to if they go after DSA people or 4:00:32.160 --> 4:00:35.120 activists who have gone to Cuba to delivery miditarian ade, 4:00:35.360 --> 4:00:39.120 that build some sort of framework to criminalize people who 4:00:39.160 --> 4:00:43.040 are sympathetic to people living in Cuba. Yeah, I think 4:00:43.120 --> 4:00:46.320 that's precisely what's happening. And one thing that's kind of 4:00:46.360 --> 4:00:51.200 telling is even among news sources that are like sympathetic 4:00:51.280 --> 4:00:54.240 to the right and to the administration, no one's pretending 4:00:54.280 --> 4:00:57.480 that this paper isn't just Marco like pushing out his 4:00:57.560 --> 4:01:00.880 own personal vendettas. Like I found a Washington Examiner article 4:01:01.320 --> 4:01:05.160 summarized the report as Marco Rubio accusing the Cuban government. 4:01:05.160 --> 4:01:08.160 Here's an exact quote from the Washington Examiner. Secretary of 4:01:08.160 --> 4:01:10.400 State Marco Rubio accused the Cuban government of running one 4:01:10.400 --> 4:01:13.000 of the most sophisticated infiltrations of US politics, in part 4:01:13.080 --> 4:01:15.760 using the Democratic Socialists of America. So even with a 4:01:15.800 --> 4:01:17.120 lot of these articles, they're like, yeah, this is just 4:01:17.200 --> 4:01:21.280 Rubio fucking spouting off right, like this is mostly oh Marco, 4:01:21.400 --> 4:01:24.720 And among some of like the crazy like anti communist 4:01:24.760 --> 4:01:26.640 sites I've been reading, they're still like, well, there's nothing 4:01:26.720 --> 4:01:29.320 new in this. They didn't because they are reading like, well, 4:01:29.360 --> 4:01:33.160 nothing passed like the seventies involves the US directly. 4:01:32.840 --> 4:01:34.560 Which is going to say there's not real danger here, right, 4:01:34.640 --> 4:01:38.040 there was no huge danger. One of the main activists 4:01:38.040 --> 4:01:41.440 that Code Pink, which was this organization that that co 4:01:41.600 --> 4:01:44.080 organized some of those ad trips to Cuba, is under 4:01:44.120 --> 4:01:48.120 federal investigation right now. And this indicates that despite how 4:01:48.160 --> 4:01:50.280 much of this is just Rubio having fun with his 4:01:50.320 --> 4:01:53.480 little pet project, this does show where the targets of 4:01:53.520 --> 4:01:56.920 the administration are. Oh yeah, and that can be the 4:01:57.040 --> 4:01:59.960 DSA and people doing humanitarian aid trips. 4:02:00.200 --> 4:02:03.600 And it's specifically because of that humanitarian aid trip, right, 4:02:03.640 --> 4:02:06.640 like that gave Rubio a really good like you know, 4:02:06.720 --> 4:02:08.760 honestly wasn't anything. I think just pissed him off because 4:02:08.760 --> 4:02:10.840 he hates the Cuban government more than anything, and the 4:02:10.880 --> 4:02:13.000 idea that anyone would want to like bring aid to 4:02:13.080 --> 4:02:17.360 the people in Cuba is like infuriating to him. Now again, 4:02:17.440 --> 4:02:19.840 we know that Trump is in the process of planning 4:02:19.880 --> 4:02:21.520 to try and force the government of Cuba out one 4:02:21.520 --> 4:02:23.600 way or another. That doesn't mean he actually will, right 4:02:23.680 --> 4:02:25.960 he hasn't committed fully to that yet. But given what 4:02:26.040 --> 4:02:28.120 happened in Venezuela, and given what's going on in Iran, 4:02:28.400 --> 4:02:29.920 I think it would be foolish to say I don't 4:02:29.920 --> 4:02:32.320 think he's going to try, right, Like, I think that's 4:02:32.360 --> 4:02:34.720 not the smart if I'm making a bet. I certainly 4:02:34.800 --> 4:02:36.560 hope he doesn't. I hope they get scared. I hope 4:02:36.560 --> 4:02:39.320 shit with Iran is bad enough that they chicken out. 4:02:39.760 --> 4:02:41.600 But I think it would be foolish to assume they're 4:02:41.640 --> 4:02:45.080 not going to try and unseat the government of Cuba. Right, Yeah, 4:02:45.160 --> 4:02:47.040 I don't think that's the rational way to look at this, 4:02:47.280 --> 4:02:50.920 right And whether this is all bluster or not, you know, 4:02:51.080 --> 4:02:53.240 is going to be seen. But as I said, the 4:02:53.280 --> 4:02:55.880 US Nimits and Strike Group have moved into the South Caribbean, 4:02:56.440 --> 4:02:58.160 and there's a lot of talk about, like, oh, we 4:02:58.200 --> 4:03:01.920 think the Cubans are planning an attack on Gwando. Last Thursday, 4:03:02.000 --> 4:03:04.520 Marco Ruby repeated his claim that Havana has weapons they 4:03:04.560 --> 4:03:07.360 acquired from quote Russia and China, and that they host 4:03:07.440 --> 4:03:10.280 Russian and in Chinese intelligence in country, which is also 4:03:10.360 --> 4:03:13.160 interesting that he's so stuck in the Cold War he 4:03:13.200 --> 4:03:16.200 has to keep bringing Russia into it. Now. There's a 4:03:16.240 --> 4:03:18.240 big debate as to like how can it It is Trump 4:03:18.480 --> 4:03:21.560 actually to unseating the Cuban government, And that's always hard 4:03:21.560 --> 4:03:23.560 to tell because when he does talk about it, it 4:03:23.600 --> 4:03:25.680 sounds like, oh, he wants that feather in his cap. 4:03:26.000 --> 4:03:27.520 But you also get the feeling this is a thing 4:03:27.520 --> 4:03:30.560 where whoever he talks to last as in a lot 4:03:30.560 --> 4:03:32.960 of cases, going to heavily set his agenda. And Senator 4:03:33.000 --> 4:03:35.600 Chris Murphy, who serves on the Foreign Relations Committee, said 4:03:35.640 --> 4:03:37.760 something like that quote. I do think that as Trump 4:03:37.800 --> 4:03:39.960 gets older and he spends his day sleeping and worrying 4:03:40.000 --> 4:03:42.880 only about his ballroom, he's increasingly susceptible to dangerous people 4:03:42.880 --> 4:03:45.080 around him with dangerous agendas. And there is a crowd 4:03:45.120 --> 4:03:47.400 of Cuba hawks who have always wanted us to invade, 4:03:47.520 --> 4:03:49.360 and who think they might be able to take advantage 4:03:49.360 --> 4:03:51.240 of it increasingly checked out old man, and I just 4:03:51.280 --> 4:03:53.520 think we have to be prepared for that. And honestly, 4:03:53.560 --> 4:03:55.560 I think Chris pretty much like that. Yeah, it's more 4:03:55.640 --> 4:04:00.240 or less right, Chris. I think that's that's basically the accurate. 4:03:59.880 --> 4:04:04.920 Is sanest man in the room? Yeah, that sounds right 4:04:05.000 --> 4:04:05.200 to me. 4:04:07.240 --> 4:04:12.800 Let's turn to the midterm elections before we close in Florida, 4:04:13.040 --> 4:04:16.600 the Groper candidate for Governor, James Fishback, who I did 4:04:16.640 --> 4:04:20.040 an episode about a few months ago, is not going 4:04:20.080 --> 4:04:23.880 to win that election, but he is pulling double digits, 4:04:24.080 --> 4:04:29.080 which is bad. And worse, he is dominating youth polls. 4:04:29.320 --> 4:04:32.080 He has fifty one percent in youth polls. That's ages 4:04:32.120 --> 4:04:36.960 eighteen to thirty four. Really really dark look at a 4:04:37.120 --> 4:04:40.800 future of the Republican Party. Fishback is like barely even 4:04:40.840 --> 4:04:43.280 like a crypto fascist. He's barely even hiding it. I 4:04:43.320 --> 4:04:46.040 mean he plays with dog whistles but also just openly 4:04:46.080 --> 4:04:50.240 says a bunch of anti Semitic stuff and very racist attacks, 4:04:50.800 --> 4:04:52.880 all with a sort of wink wink, nudge nudge in 4:04:52.920 --> 4:04:58.400 that classic Groper charisma style. But there's another aspect of 4:04:58.800 --> 4:05:02.080 the Fishback race to briefly mention, is that there's been 4:05:02.120 --> 4:05:07.120 a lot of AI ads targeted against Fishback, where it 4:05:07.200 --> 4:05:11.920 has like AI generated video deep fake style of Fishback 4:05:12.000 --> 4:05:15.960 with like the Squad and Russia and Putin and Alan 4:05:16.040 --> 4:05:20.960 Omar and Rashida Taalob foreign generals Muslim leaders in the 4:05:20.960 --> 4:05:24.560 Middle East with her jobs. Basically, he's like welcoming all 4:05:24.600 --> 4:05:27.800 of these people into his home and they cut up 4:05:28.040 --> 4:05:32.360 an anti Israel Cake and that's the ad. It looks 4:05:33.120 --> 4:05:35.160 I mean like someone like me can tell it's AI 4:05:36.160 --> 4:05:39.840 A boomer might not be able to. And this is 4:05:39.840 --> 4:05:43.240 something that Thomas Massey, since losing his race, has said 4:05:43.240 --> 4:05:48.360 that he believes, through talking with with voters, specifically older voters, 4:05:48.800 --> 4:05:52.960 that many boomers and older voters believed the ai ads 4:05:53.000 --> 4:05:55.960 against MASSI that Massey was in like a threuple with 4:05:56.000 --> 4:05:59.120 like AOC and someone else Elanomar. I think that he 4:05:59.160 --> 4:06:01.400 actually got called. So There's office got calls to asking 4:06:01.440 --> 4:06:04.160 if this was true. So these sorts of aiads are 4:06:04.200 --> 4:06:08.120 a real problem, obviously, the fact that these are against Fishback. 4:06:10.040 --> 4:06:12.440 I'm not being synthetic to Fishback here, but this is 4:06:12.480 --> 4:06:18.040 a more general societal problem. Moving on to another governor's 4:06:18.120 --> 4:06:22.280 race in Wisconsin, Democratic socialist Francesca Hong is ahead in 4:06:22.320 --> 4:06:26.240 the polls, but many people are still undecided. In a 4:06:26.320 --> 4:06:29.240 Wedgewood poll from mid July, Francesco Hong is up thirty 4:06:29.440 --> 4:06:34.200 eight percent, Mendela Barnes is thirty percent, and David Crowley 4:06:34.280 --> 4:06:40.160 is nine percent, though undecided or supporting another candidate is 4:06:40.160 --> 4:06:42.560 pulling up twenty three percent in that poll, so there 4:06:42.600 --> 4:06:45.120 could still be upwards of like twenty percent of people 4:06:45.120 --> 4:06:48.000 who are undecided. There's been some other polls in the 4:06:48.040 --> 4:06:50.960 past few days that show Francesca Hong about fifteen percent 4:06:51.040 --> 4:06:54.640 above everyone else, so that is a good sign for her. 4:06:55.160 --> 4:06:58.680 I know there's been some organizers from New York and 4:06:58.720 --> 4:07:00.760 across the country going into with Conson right now to 4:07:00.760 --> 4:07:05.080 help with his last leg of the campaign. This is 4:07:05.120 --> 4:07:07.960 a very important race looking at what the future of 4:07:08.520 --> 4:07:12.000 the viability of democratic socialism is going to be in 4:07:12.040 --> 4:07:16.640 swing states. This past week, David Crowley re entered the race, 4:07:17.320 --> 4:07:20.640 which may split the moderate vote, which could help Hong 4:07:20.800 --> 4:07:22.840 win the primary. It's another thing to keep an eye 4:07:22.880 --> 4:07:26.320 on here. In Maine, Troy Jackson is said to be 4:07:26.480 --> 4:07:30.520 the Democratic cent nominee after organizers and volunteers secured the 4:07:30.640 --> 4:07:34.960 vast majority of delegates for the nominee replacement convention. I've 4:07:35.000 --> 4:07:37.480 mentioned Jackson a few times on the show because he 4:07:37.680 --> 4:07:41.680 ran for governor with the endorsement of DSA and Bernie Sanders, 4:07:42.000 --> 4:07:44.680 who was the only person to receive the endorsement of 4:07:44.760 --> 4:07:50.280 DSA Platner did not. Jackson's a former state lawmaker, a 4:07:50.280 --> 4:07:53.640 five generation lagger, very pro labor, like the most like 4:07:53.760 --> 4:07:57.960 legitimate working class, pro labor candidate. He's pulling a little 4:07:57.960 --> 4:08:00.440 bit ahead of Collins right now, like about three percent, 4:08:00.800 --> 4:08:02.360 but this is going to be a very close race. 4:08:02.400 --> 4:08:03.520 This is going to be very tough. 4:08:04.600 --> 4:08:07.200 Another really close race right now is the Democratic send 4:08:07.400 --> 4:08:12.560 primary in Michigan with corporate and APAC backed Hailey Stevens 4:08:12.640 --> 4:08:16.920 going up against left wing populist Abdul l said. There 4:08:16.960 --> 4:08:20.360 has been a ton of outside spending the past few weeks, 4:08:20.360 --> 4:08:24.840 with multiple attack ads smearing L said as quote unquote sexist, 4:08:25.600 --> 4:08:30.320 and these are all just for him, like criticizing female politicians, 4:08:30.360 --> 4:08:34.760 like criticizing Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama, like not attacking 4:08:34.800 --> 4:08:38.080 them for being women, but doing very sometimes actually very 4:08:38.120 --> 4:08:42.440 soft criticism of like their ability to improve the world 4:08:42.520 --> 4:08:46.480 as political actors. But the playbook that Stevens and that 4:08:46.600 --> 4:08:48.720 larger campaign has been using has been trying to smear 4:08:48.800 --> 4:08:52.400 L sayid as a quote unquote sexist podcast bro. This 4:08:52.440 --> 4:08:54.840 is the sort of last last light of defense. This 4:08:54.920 --> 4:08:57.000 style of liberalism has had, this going back to this 4:08:57.000 --> 4:08:59.960 sort of identity reductionism. When they are faced with the 4:09:00.200 --> 4:09:03.800 vast actual economic and policy differences between two candidates, the 4:09:03.840 --> 4:09:07.320 only thing they can do is Oh, but Hailey Stevens, 4:09:07.360 --> 4:09:10.000 I am a woman, and this man must hate women. 4:09:10.320 --> 4:09:13.200 APAC is helping with this. They've already spent at least 4:09:13.240 --> 4:09:16.960 fifteen million dollars, with other corporate packs helping Stevens with 4:09:17.000 --> 4:09:21.880 another twelve million. As of July first, there's already been 4:09:22.000 --> 4:09:25.960 over forty six million in ads spending, seventy four percent 4:09:25.960 --> 4:09:29.240 of which supports Stevens, and there's a lot of money 4:09:29.240 --> 4:09:32.080 going in since that July first date as well. One 4:09:32.080 --> 4:09:36.680 of the pro Stevens ads has manufactured a fake Obama 4:09:36.760 --> 4:09:40.320 endorsement using old clips of Obama talking about Hailey Stevens 4:09:40.360 --> 4:09:43.800 because she worked with him like fifteen years ago. Now, 4:09:43.840 --> 4:09:47.920 Obama has declined to comment on this sort of manufactured 4:09:47.960 --> 4:09:51.720 fake endorsement, which is effectively just letting them do that. 4:09:51.960 --> 4:09:53.520 If he's not going to say no, I haven't actually 4:09:53.600 --> 4:09:56.520 endorsed in this race, then basically he's allowing them to 4:09:56.680 --> 4:10:02.000 lie about him endorsing Stevens in this race. Meanwhile, laid 4:10:02.080 --> 4:10:04.680 is on the news almost every week getting grilled about 4:10:04.680 --> 4:10:08.160 why he doesn't support Israel enough, and Israel has been 4:10:08.200 --> 4:10:11.320 a very important part of this race. This is in Michigan, 4:10:11.680 --> 4:10:14.240 Michigan was a big part of the Uncommitted movement, and 4:10:14.560 --> 4:10:19.680 Stephens is a ridiculously pro Israel candidate who has voted 4:10:19.720 --> 4:10:23.280 to send tens of billions of dollars in unrestricted aid 4:10:23.280 --> 4:10:27.320 to Israel, has stopped the Lebanon War Powers Resolution, has 4:10:27.360 --> 4:10:29.760 banned the State Department from citing Go's the Health Ministry 4:10:29.800 --> 4:10:34.679 death tolls, and Stevens also sees Israel in her dreams. 4:10:36.720 --> 4:10:41.600 And in the United States Congress. I will continue to 4:10:41.760 --> 4:10:46.160 fight for the people of Israel. I will continue to 4:10:46.280 --> 4:10:51.840 fight for Israel's existence. Israel comes to me in my dreams. 4:10:52.080 --> 4:10:53.720 I see Israel's future. 4:10:54.120 --> 4:10:57.760 Meanwhile, Lsaid wants to abolish ice, fight for medicare for all, 4:10:58.280 --> 4:11:02.320 and cut off all aid to Israel. He's certainly running 4:11:02.360 --> 4:11:07.280 a downstream of Zoron Mamdani's style campaign with his videos. 4:11:07.600 --> 4:11:10.440 He has declined to explicitly call himself a Democratic Socialist, 4:11:10.680 --> 4:11:13.720 but there's a lot of similarities in his platform to 4:11:14.160 --> 4:11:18.640 some other DSA candidates like Zoron, though Elsay is not 4:11:18.880 --> 4:11:21.840 endorsed by DSA, but he is running with backing of 4:11:21.880 --> 4:11:25.800 the UAW and the Working Families Party. Speaking of elections, 4:11:26.160 --> 4:11:30.360 let's close out by talking about election security because on 4:11:30.440 --> 4:11:33.440 Thursday night, President Trump delivered what was promised to be 4:11:33.920 --> 4:11:37.840 a very important address to the nation on election security. 4:11:38.600 --> 4:11:42.080 The speech started out as a basically mini version of 4:11:42.120 --> 4:11:45.160 his last State of the Union before he announced the 4:11:45.200 --> 4:11:49.360 release of heavily redacted CIA documents on how China tried 4:11:49.400 --> 4:11:54.520 to influence our past elections, intelligence reports on possible vulnerabilities 4:11:54.560 --> 4:11:58.440 in our election infrastructure, and finally claiming that two hundred 4:11:58.480 --> 4:12:02.560 and fifty thousand non citizens are registered to vote, with 4:12:02.640 --> 4:12:06.440 no further details or evidence of that number. Basically, this 4:12:06.600 --> 4:12:09.360 whole speech was a big ploy to try to pass 4:12:09.400 --> 4:12:13.240 this Safe Act to restrict mail in voting and disenfranchised 4:12:13.280 --> 4:12:15.480 voters with heightened ID requirements. 4:12:16.040 --> 4:12:17.240 Trump also talked about. 4:12:17.080 --> 4:12:22.720 How China had stolen election data. What actually happened was 4:12:22.880 --> 4:12:28.679 China downloaded publicly available voter data in twenty twenty two 4:12:28.840 --> 4:12:31.440 that the Trump Aadmin now claims could be used by 4:12:31.520 --> 4:12:36.960 foreign countries to fraudulently vote in our elections. And of 4:12:36.960 --> 4:12:41.480 course China was looking at possible influence operations as many 4:12:41.720 --> 4:12:46.280 foreign countries do. Russia has done foreign influence operations that's 4:12:46.320 --> 4:12:50.520 not changing vote tallies or hacking into voting machines that's 4:12:50.880 --> 4:12:54.960 doing disinformation campaigns, which, as we've seen with Tenet Media, 4:12:55.360 --> 4:12:59.560 Russia has certainly been involved in recently. And according to 4:12:59.560 --> 4:13:03.320 some of these documents, China was looking into if they 4:13:03.360 --> 4:13:06.040 wanted to run influence operations for the twenty twenty election, 4:13:06.440 --> 4:13:11.280 and they actually declined to. After Trump's address, reporters questioned 4:13:11.440 --> 4:13:14.520 John Solomon, a former right wing journalist who Trump brought 4:13:14.560 --> 4:13:18.480 onto his election task force to investigate possible voter fraud, 4:13:19.080 --> 4:13:22.960 and Solomon clarified that there's no evidence that any foreign 4:13:23.040 --> 4:13:27.360 power tampered with US voting machines or manipulated the vote count. 4:13:28.960 --> 4:13:31.600 Do you acknowledge that there were no votes changed in twenty. 4:13:31.320 --> 4:13:33.840 Twenty I've all I can acknowledge is what the intelligence shows, right. 4:13:33.840 --> 4:13:36.520 I only know the Intelligence Committee has zero evidence that's 4:13:36.520 --> 4:13:39.520 someone's flipped. That a foreign power flip they vote in 4:13:39.560 --> 4:13:40.680 twenty twenty, twenty two or. 4:13:40.680 --> 4:13:43.400 Twenty four, and you have no you're able to work 4:13:43.440 --> 4:13:44.520 after all the documents, you're. 4:13:44.400 --> 4:13:46.920 Able to acknowledge that Venezuela has not tampered with voting 4:13:46.920 --> 4:13:47.960 machines in the United States. 4:13:48.000 --> 4:13:48.600 No, the. 4:13:50.440 --> 4:13:52.960 Intelligence is very clear they did it on their own machines. 4:13:52.960 --> 4:13:54.760 Why is important that they did it on their machines. 4:13:54.960 --> 4:13:57.800 Their machine protocols are the same as America. Why not 4:13:57.840 --> 4:13:58.640 because for a long. 4:13:58.440 --> 4:13:58.960 Time they did it. 4:14:00.840 --> 4:14:04.760 Election was in fact the results as we of the 4:14:04.760 --> 4:14:06.080 American vi researching. 4:14:06.120 --> 4:14:07.560 So let me let me have this is the first one. 4:14:07.640 --> 4:14:08.640 There's no intelligence. 4:14:10.800 --> 4:14:14.720 There's no intelligence at the election. Trumps. 4:14:17.720 --> 4:14:22.680 On Friday, the day following Trump's address, DHS Secretary Mullen 4:14:22.960 --> 4:14:27.520 announced that regardless of if the Save Act passes, he 4:14:27.600 --> 4:14:33.000 will institute mandatory changes to election security, including scrubbing states 4:14:33.120 --> 4:14:33.960 voter rules. 4:14:35.560 --> 4:14:39.000 We are going to make our second our our security 4:14:39.080 --> 4:14:44.520 enhancements mandatory, meaning that if these states want to grant 4:14:45.680 --> 4:14:49.720 and they want to be reimbursed to work or to 4:14:49.800 --> 4:14:54.480 run federal elections, they're going to have to implement security issues, 4:14:56.280 --> 4:14:59.320 just security issues. We're not trying to get into anything else, 4:14:59.360 --> 4:15:02.960 but we're saying the machines had to be secured, and 4:15:02.960 --> 4:15:06.920 that your voter restoration list needs to be scrubbed. 4:15:07.440 --> 4:15:10.800 If this actually happens, this could possibly lead to many 4:15:10.840 --> 4:15:13.720 people thinking they are registered to vote who are actually 4:15:13.720 --> 4:15:16.720 not come election day and then be unable to vote. 4:15:16.760 --> 4:15:20.640 This is a voter disenfranchisement tactic. Second time alone later 4:15:21.240 --> 4:15:25.120 directly contradicted what John Solomon said the night before, saying 4:15:25.160 --> 4:15:29.920 that quote, we know for sure that foreign adversaries have 4:15:30.080 --> 4:15:32.920 vital pieces of our voting machines, and the quote unquote 4:15:33.000 --> 4:15:35.720 key to the back end of these machines. 4:15:37.200 --> 4:15:42.000 We know that they can change voter registration and your vote. 4:15:43.040 --> 4:15:47.000 We know it's possible. There's not a question. It's not 4:15:47.080 --> 4:15:47.920 even for debate. 4:15:48.200 --> 4:15:51.720 Finally, on Wednesday, the House advanced a bill to stop 4:15:51.800 --> 4:15:58.840 insider trading, except Republicans added Save Act style measures into 4:15:58.880 --> 4:16:02.400 this bill to pass new voter ID requirements to please Trump. 4:16:02.800 --> 4:16:05.760 And part of why they put those Save AX style 4:16:05.800 --> 4:16:08.560 measures into this bill is so that they could attack 4:16:08.680 --> 4:16:13.120 Democrats in upcoming elections for voting against a bill to 4:16:13.280 --> 4:16:16.440 stop insider trading. Literally seconds after this bill was voted 4:16:16.480 --> 4:16:21.720 on the White House, rapid response accounts started posting, quote, disgraceful. 4:16:21.960 --> 4:16:24.840 One hundred and ninety eight Democrats just voted against banning 4:16:24.880 --> 4:16:28.080 members of Congress from trading stocks while they're in office. 4:16:28.320 --> 4:16:32.320 They're corrupt, as you can see, very transparent ploy to 4:16:32.880 --> 4:16:36.280 manufacture a vote to be used in elections to attack 4:16:36.320 --> 4:16:40.720 Democrats for being corrupt. This quote unquote insider Trading Bill 4:16:40.760 --> 4:16:43.920 will now go to the Senate with those Save Act 4:16:43.920 --> 4:16:46.080 style voter id measures included. 4:16:47.120 --> 4:16:49.720 All right, thank you for that, gare. And last, but 4:16:49.760 --> 4:16:53.760 certainly not least, we've got one more edition of the 4:16:53.800 --> 4:16:56.840 Tariff Song, and then talking about tariffs after it. 4:16:58.280 --> 4:17:02.520 All right, let's talk tariffs. So long ago, in a 4:17:02.560 --> 4:17:05.240 galaxy far far away, which is to say, really truly 4:17:05.400 --> 4:17:08.400 not that long ago, we did an episode on the 4:17:08.520 --> 4:17:13.360 hideously illegal terrorists Trump imposed under the quote unquote authority 4:17:14.120 --> 4:17:16.760 of Section one twenty two of the Trade Act of 4:17:16.880 --> 4:17:20.520 nineteen seventy four. These are the ones that are based 4:17:20.600 --> 4:17:24.080 on this completely manufactured crisis about the US facing a 4:17:24.120 --> 4:17:26.920 balance of payments crisis, a thing that cannot happen and 4:17:27.120 --> 4:17:31.000 is not happening now. These tariffs, which is just a 4:17:31.040 --> 4:17:35.640 general ten percent tariffnal goods, are set to expire on 4:17:35.720 --> 4:17:38.520 Friday July twenty fourth, quite possibly the day you're listening 4:17:38.600 --> 4:17:43.640 to this. So on Monday, July twentieth, Trump took the 4:17:43.720 --> 4:17:46.600 most dramatic terrorf action he has taken since the Supreme 4:17:46.640 --> 4:17:50.960 Court found he was illegally using the International Emergency Economic 4:17:51.000 --> 4:17:54.000 Powers Act to apply TERRAFS in February by the time 4:17:54.080 --> 4:17:57.080 you are listening to this, presumably he is going to 4:17:57.120 --> 4:18:00.640 have unleashed a wrath. You know, I was originally a raft, 4:18:00.680 --> 4:18:04.160 but wrath actually works too. Of new tariffs, but as 4:18:04.240 --> 4:18:06.120 off to time of recording, the one that has been 4:18:06.600 --> 4:18:10.000 revealed specifically is that he is imposing a fifty percent 4:18:10.080 --> 4:18:13.800 tariff on goods imported from Canada or some goods imported 4:18:13.840 --> 4:18:16.560 from Canada. Now I'm going to get into what that 4:18:16.760 --> 4:18:19.520 tariff is actually going to do in a second. But 4:18:19.560 --> 4:18:23.000 the important thing here is not the specific tariff itself, 4:18:23.320 --> 4:18:25.920 but the legal authority Trump is using to invoke it. 4:18:26.360 --> 4:18:28.920 He is invoking section three thirty eight of the so 4:18:29.040 --> 4:18:33.360 called smoot Holly TERRRIF Act. If the name vaguely rings 4:18:33.360 --> 4:18:37.480 a bell, it's probably because smoot Holly is best known 4:18:37.600 --> 4:18:40.240 for exacerbating the Great Depression, to the extent that it 4:18:40.280 --> 4:18:43.520 is in basically every every history textbook of the United 4:18:43.560 --> 4:18:46.400 States so you will read in high school, will have 4:18:46.520 --> 4:18:51.640 this in it. This Act smoot Holly is the final 4:18:51.680 --> 4:18:54.880 frontier for terriff authority. It is the tariff big red button. 4:18:55.120 --> 4:18:58.480 It is a power that has never been invoked before, 4:18:58.880 --> 4:19:02.160 even by its creative and I genuinely don't know if 4:19:02.200 --> 4:19:06.120 it even still exists. This is the tariff rubicon, and 4:19:06.160 --> 4:19:10.520 Trump has just crossed it. Now, before we get into 4:19:10.600 --> 4:19:13.120 this more, let's talk for a second about Trump's nominal 4:19:13.160 --> 4:19:16.680 fifty percent teriff on Canada, which is actually much less 4:19:16.720 --> 4:19:19.440 of a big deal than it looks. The tariffs are 4:19:19.480 --> 4:19:22.680 supposed to take effect on August nineteenth and has about 4:19:22.840 --> 4:19:29.160 a million carveouts for you know, different kinds of Canadian goods, including, 4:19:29.160 --> 4:19:31.960 for example, things like energy products, which is a huge 4:19:32.000 --> 4:19:35.040 amount of what we import from Canada. So this is 4:19:35.080 --> 4:19:37.640 only going to apply to about five point two percent 4:19:37.720 --> 4:19:40.600 of Canadian trade with the US. I mean, obviously that 4:19:40.680 --> 4:19:42.560 is still kind of a big deal for that five 4:19:42.600 --> 4:19:45.840 percent of trade. But you know, there's a good chance 4:19:45.840 --> 4:19:48.640 that these tariffs aren't going to go into effect at all, 4:19:48.720 --> 4:19:50.200 and that this is sort of a piece of trade 4:19:50.240 --> 4:19:53.800 leverage for negotiations with Canada. These, you know, even if 4:19:53.840 --> 4:19:56.280 they did go into effect, aren't going to be the 4:19:56.320 --> 4:19:59.360 biggest deal. I'm also going to briefly mention that we 4:19:59.400 --> 4:20:03.720 finally got the long awaited pharmaceutical import tariff. And when 4:20:03.760 --> 4:20:06.200 I say long awaited, I have literally been waiting for 4:20:06.240 --> 4:20:08.840 these tariffs to be announced since the beginning of the administration, 4:20:09.360 --> 4:20:11.840 to the point where I literally stopped covering the announcements 4:20:11.840 --> 4:20:14.520 that they were coming because they just never did. Apparently 4:20:15.280 --> 4:20:17.560 they are also kind of a joke. They impose a 4:20:17.560 --> 4:20:20.240 one hundred percent tariff on pharmaceutical imports, which would be 4:20:20.240 --> 4:20:22.840 a massive deal, except it starts in twenty twenty eight, 4:20:23.440 --> 4:20:26.320 it eventually rises at the two hundred percent, and like, Okay, yeah, sure, Donald, 4:20:26.400 --> 4:20:30.720 whatever you say, that's not happening. None of the specifics 4:20:30.920 --> 4:20:34.680 of the tariffs matter at all, or matter much at all. 4:20:34.760 --> 4:20:38.280 What is significantly more important is Trump invoking three thirty 4:20:38.320 --> 4:20:42.760 eight of Smoot Holly. Now, the reason he's doing this 4:20:43.040 --> 4:20:45.880 is pretty clear. All of the other avenues he has 4:20:45.920 --> 4:20:49.720 to impose teriffs legally actually have restrictions attached to them. 4:20:50.560 --> 4:20:53.440 Section one twenty two tariffs, as we've mentioned, are only 4:20:53.480 --> 4:20:55.480 supposed to be when there's a balance of payments crisis, 4:20:55.480 --> 4:20:58.480 and you can only impose a flat rate, and once 4:20:58.520 --> 4:21:00.880 he imposes them, they have to be reviewed by Congress, 4:21:00.880 --> 4:21:03.880 and that's just not happening. So those are expiring on Friday. 4:21:03.920 --> 4:21:06.200 We've talked about the Section three oh one tariffs a 4:21:06.240 --> 4:21:09.600 few weeks ago. Those are the ones that nominally are 4:21:09.640 --> 4:21:12.240 about forced labor. But those also have limits and can 4:21:12.280 --> 4:21:14.560 only be imposed after a long and slow process of 4:21:14.640 --> 4:21:18.960 trade investigations. Now, obviously the way that that Trump has 4:21:19.040 --> 4:21:21.120 used both of them is illegal, but even trying to 4:21:21.200 --> 4:21:25.240 use them illegally, they have definite limits. Section three thirty 4:21:25.240 --> 4:21:29.680 eight of Smooth Holly has basically no limits, and the 4:21:29.680 --> 4:21:32.200 one limit that's relevant for our purposes is a fifty 4:21:32.240 --> 4:21:36.600 percent maximum teriff rate. Otherwise, it lets the president impose 4:21:36.680 --> 4:21:39.480 tariffs on whatever country he wants for the extremely nepulous 4:21:39.520 --> 4:21:43.560 reasoning of that country having placed quote the commerce of 4:21:43.600 --> 4:21:46.680 the United States at a disadvantage compared to the commerce 4:21:46.720 --> 4:21:50.600 of any foreign country. Trump, can you say any country 4:21:50.640 --> 4:21:52.400 is doing this for any reason? We are back to 4:21:52.520 --> 4:21:57.040 Calvinball nonsense. This nominal legal authority allows Trump to do 4:21:57.120 --> 4:22:02.120 whatever he wants trade wise, up to a fifty percent tariff. Now, again, 4:22:02.880 --> 4:22:05.800 it is widely expected that by the time you're reading this, 4:22:05.840 --> 4:22:08.400 we're already going to have seen more tariffs. I'm expecting 4:22:08.400 --> 4:22:11.760 something akin to a smaller scale version of liberation tariffs. 4:22:11.760 --> 4:22:14.720 By the time you're listening, you will know more. Now, 4:22:15.200 --> 4:22:18.600 the reason I'm talking about section three thirty eight of 4:22:18.680 --> 4:22:20.800 Smooth Holly. And the reason I've described it as like 4:22:20.840 --> 4:22:23.400 the big red button of tariffs, like it's the tariff rubicon, 4:22:24.080 --> 4:22:27.880 is because not only has it never been used before, right, 4:22:28.360 --> 4:22:30.160 you know, the Section one twenty two has also never 4:22:30.200 --> 4:22:34.960 been used before, but this one, specifically section three thirty eight, 4:22:35.080 --> 4:22:37.040 there is a real question as to whether it's even 4:22:37.080 --> 4:22:40.920 still in effect now. The argument you will most commonly 4:22:41.040 --> 4:22:44.240 see is that section three thirty eight has never formally 4:22:44.280 --> 4:22:47.040 been repealed and therefore is still on the books. This 4:22:47.120 --> 4:22:49.920 is a law that was passed in nineteen thirty. The 4:22:50.000 --> 4:22:52.640 com administration is making the argument that because it has 4:22:52.680 --> 4:22:57.280 never formally been repealed, it is still on the books. However, 4:22:57.400 --> 4:23:00.080 the problem is that there exists a thing called superseding 4:23:00.160 --> 4:23:05.000 statute or a quote implied repeal. This is the argument 4:23:05.000 --> 4:23:07.160 that I've seen that this law is not still on 4:23:07.200 --> 4:23:09.400 the books. I've seen various versions of it. The one 4:23:09.440 --> 4:23:12.440 that is kind of spreading around now, for better or 4:23:12.480 --> 4:23:16.280 for worse, kind of for worse to some extent, is 4:23:16.960 --> 4:23:20.200 from Philip Zellico, who is a Hoover Institute guy and 4:23:20.320 --> 4:23:23.400 a history professor who's writing in Reason magazine so, like, 4:23:23.440 --> 4:23:25.600 you know, these are not the people I would normally 4:23:25.640 --> 4:23:29.280 turn to in terms of getting legal analysis on everything. 4:23:29.280 --> 4:23:32.160 But I actually think there's a kind of a decent 4:23:32.280 --> 4:23:36.640 argument that they might be right. And their argument is that, okay, 4:23:36.680 --> 4:23:41.080 because of the way that you know, laws can supersede 4:23:41.120 --> 4:23:43.800 other laws. Right, if you write a second law that 4:23:43.920 --> 4:23:45.760 is about the same thing as the first law, and 4:23:45.800 --> 4:23:48.760 it covers explicitly the same thing, it can repeal the 4:23:48.760 --> 4:23:54.040 first law. It's sketchy, the courts don't like it functioning 4:23:54.200 --> 4:23:57.760 like that, but it does technically work like that. And 4:23:58.280 --> 4:24:02.560 you know, zelico Are argues that a whole train of statutes, 4:24:02.680 --> 4:24:05.160 ranging from the Trade Expansion Act of nineteen sixteen to 4:24:05.200 --> 4:24:07.680 our old friend section three oh one, if the Trade 4:24:07.680 --> 4:24:11.120 Act of nineteen seventy four cover exactly the same things 4:24:11.440 --> 4:24:14.920 and therefore have repealed the statute. I think that's actually plausible. 4:24:15.000 --> 4:24:17.120 And this is, you know, part of the reason why 4:24:17.160 --> 4:24:21.040 no one has ever actually tried to use this stuff, 4:24:21.080 --> 4:24:24.960 because there have been subsequent legislation to describe these exact 4:24:25.000 --> 4:24:27.440 powers and describe what you can do with them. So 4:24:27.880 --> 4:24:32.040 whether it even still exists is extremely dubious. Now, this 4:24:32.280 --> 4:24:35.200 is probably not going to survive a challenge in court. 4:24:36.000 --> 4:24:40.240 But until the legal challenge actually winds its way through 4:24:40.280 --> 4:24:42.840 the courts, Trump is going to be free to do 4:24:42.880 --> 4:24:45.320 as Calvin ball nonsense, and we're back to, you know, 4:24:46.000 --> 4:24:49.640 twenty five era. Trump just declaring a tariff is happening 4:24:49.680 --> 4:24:53.760 in a country every morning now. On a broader level, right, 4:24:53.840 --> 4:24:56.000 what's happening here is that the way the Supreme Court 4:24:56.040 --> 4:24:59.040 has been doing shadow docket decisions have allowed Trump to 4:24:59.280 --> 4:25:02.480 simply keep breaking the law and seizing more illegal power 4:25:02.520 --> 4:25:04.640 and then using it until this bereme court gets around 4:25:04.640 --> 4:25:08.280 and taking that power away. Now, obviously this is not 4:25:08.320 --> 4:25:11.440 true of everything he's been trying to do with triffs. 4:25:11.480 --> 4:25:14.520 In particular, he's been extremely successful in simply applying the 4:25:14.560 --> 4:25:16.680 tariffs and then keeping them into effect until the legal 4:25:16.720 --> 4:25:20.080 challenges go through the courts. That looks like what's going 4:25:20.120 --> 4:25:22.320 to happen here, which is going to give him probably 4:25:22.400 --> 4:25:24.920 another I mean, it's going to give him but at 4:25:25.000 --> 4:25:28.600 least half a year probably of the ability to just 4:25:28.800 --> 4:25:31.760 do whatever bullshit tariff policy he wants, which means another 4:25:31.840 --> 4:25:36.560 year of completely unhinged economic instability for the entire global economy. 4:25:36.880 --> 4:25:39.640 It means another year of all you know of supply 4:25:39.720 --> 4:25:44.440 lines being degraded, of prices increasing, and of all of 4:25:44.520 --> 4:25:52.600 us getting absolutely screwed. Okay, put a transgoll on your couch. 4:25:53.440 --> 4:25:54.520 We reported the news. 4:25:55.240 --> 4:25:56.240 We reported the news. 4:26:00.480 --> 4:26:03.640 Hey, we'll be back Monday with more episodes every week 4:26:03.720 --> 4:26:05.640 from now until the heat death of the Universe. 4:26:06.280 --> 4:26:08.880 It Could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media. 4:26:08.960 --> 4:26:11.960 For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website 4:26:12.080 --> 4:26:15.680 coolzonmedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, 4:26:15.760 --> 4:26:19.320 Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can 4:26:19.360 --> 4:26:21.680 now find sources for It Could Happen here, listed directly 4:26:21.680 --> 4:26:24.000 in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.