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Speaker 1: A media. Hey everybody, Robert Evans here, and I wanted

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Speaker 1: to let you know this is a compilation episode. So

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Speaker 1: every episode of the week that just happened is here

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Speaker 1: in one convenient and with somewhat less ads package for

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Speaker 1: you to listen to in a long stretch if you want.

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Speaker 1: If you've been listening to the episodes every day this week,

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Speaker 1: there's going to be nothing new here for you, but

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Speaker 1: you can make your own decisions. What's pew in my pews?

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Speaker 1: This is Robert Evans and it could happen here a

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Speaker 1: podcast about it happening here as it seems to be

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Speaker 1: more every week and when things get worse, one thing

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Speaker 1: that a lot of folks start talking about is should

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Speaker 1: I buy a gun? And obviously this is a fraught

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Speaker 1: question and the only responsible answers to it are very complicated.

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Speaker 1: And so to talk over some very complicated answers, we've

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Speaker 1: got James Stout and we have in the audience with

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Speaker 1: us the great Carl Casarta, Carl of en Range TV.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for coming on to be our resident firearms

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Speaker 1: expert in this podcast where we try not to be

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Speaker 1: deeply irresponsible.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, thank you for having me on. It's always a

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Speaker 2: pleasure to come back to the show, and people always

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Speaker 2: ask for more collabs, and here we are, but on

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Speaker 2: a very important topic, and yes they course. What I

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Speaker 2: have is now is when do you change the name

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Speaker 2: of the podcast too?

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Speaker 1: Oh no, it's happening here. We're talking with the marketing people.

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Speaker 1: It done happened here. Oh shit, it's happening again. It's

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Speaker 1: been happening here. Yeah, here, it is here now right

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Speaker 1: in this moment.

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Speaker 3: Be here now it Yeah, we got we got to

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Speaker 3: work out each one seo's best.

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Speaker 2: But we're on it. Called don't worry.

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Speaker 3: Great, we're working on it, so as I think both

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Speaker 3: of you know, But maybe listeners don't. Gun sales typically

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Speaker 3: saw before elections as to ammunition purchases. People are afraid

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Speaker 3: of gun bands has been traditionally one reason why, and

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Speaker 3: the firearms industry is not afraid of hyping those up

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Speaker 3: to increase sales in election years. And no, many prices

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Speaker 3: increase inline with demand. Like if you get back to

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Speaker 3: November twenty twenty and look at the prices of ammunition

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Speaker 3: and guns compared to now, you'll see how much incredibly

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Speaker 3: high they That was for a number of reasons. But

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Speaker 3: considering inflation, gun prices are pretty low right now.

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Speaker 1: You know that is kind of a recurrent thing for

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Speaker 1: the most part, is that while everything else gets more expensive,

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Speaker 1: television and firearms remain affordable.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, gun gone to the point where they are more

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Speaker 2: affordable than they've ever been. Uh huh, Yeah, they really are.

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Speaker 2: Air fifteens or I used to talk about this on

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Speaker 2: air fifteens are essentially cord wood and you can get

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Speaker 2: a fully fled good to go air fifteen now for

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Speaker 2: like four to five hundred bucks. The epistols for two

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty bucks. Oh yeah. The prices on guns

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Speaker 2: are like through the floor. And yeah, it's interesting to

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Speaker 2: note that, like, if you are a gun manufacturer, a

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Speaker 2: firearms dealer, even if you don't hype elections, it would

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Speaker 2: be unintelligent of you to not prep for elections because

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Speaker 2: they're so consistently yeah, the Christmas of guns. So this

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Speaker 2: is an instance in which we didn't see that. It's

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Speaker 2: it's kind of interesting.

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Speaker 1: I think there's an element because obviously when we talk

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Speaker 1: I think to people who are not into guns and

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Speaker 1: talk about how cheap guns have gotten, they're like, well,

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Speaker 1: that's very bad. And there's definitely downsides to that, But

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Speaker 1: an upside of that is it does kind of suggest

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Speaker 1: we are not seeing the degree of panicked hoarding for

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Speaker 1: a civil war that we have seen at previous points

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Speaker 1: when gun prices were not as as cratered and AMMO

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Speaker 1: prices were a lot higher and am ava availability was

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Speaker 1: a lot lower. Like in some ways, that's kind of

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Speaker 1: an optimistic sign.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, or the dark side of that is the traditional

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Speaker 2: prepper air quote is so saturated in guns and ammunition, right,

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Speaker 2: but they don't need another one, right.

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Speaker 1: Well, that's I think that is where a lot of

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Speaker 1: people are.

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Speaker 3: Also, like capacity really increased in twenty twenty, and I

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Speaker 3: think they've been pumping out Like it's interesting to look

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Speaker 3: at the cost of nine millimeters E and five five

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Speaker 3: six ammunition, which, if you're not familiar, are like the

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Speaker 3: most commonly used defensive ammunition compared to more niche stuff

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Speaker 3: like that hasn't gone down as much if you're trying

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Speaker 3: to get three hundred wisdom or something.

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Speaker 2: The funny thing that, yeah, five y six and nine

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Speaker 2: milimeters both to defensively add well is just recreationally are

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Speaker 2: the most common ammunition YEA by far, and some of

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Speaker 2: the weird old stuff I like to shoot, like percussion

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Speaker 2: caps for percussion revolvers. You can't find that stuff to

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Speaker 2: save your life. That's those through the roof and expensive.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, they've literally just bunkered down cook intent there

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Speaker 2: and are making five, six, a nine millimeters because that's

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Speaker 2: where the demand is and will continue to be.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't find you can't see it. I have

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Speaker 3: a little reloading set up here. I can't find shot

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Speaker 3: gun primers or seven powders anyway.

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Speaker 1: Now, and this is going to be a problem because

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Speaker 1: if we have another Cowboys and Aliens kind of situation,

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Speaker 1: what are we going to use? You know, what is

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Speaker 1: Harrison Ford going to use to save us? Anyway? Nobody

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Speaker 1: saw that movie. Why am I making that joke?

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Speaker 4: Let me know.

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Speaker 2: I've got a good stash of percussion cap.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we're all going to be leaning heavily on Carl.

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Speaker 2: Call fural humanity.

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Speaker 1: So I think we've gotten a little bit ahead of

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Speaker 1: our skis here. We should we should start by talking

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Speaker 1: because again, I think we've all seen a lot of

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Speaker 1: people being like, well, I guess I should get a

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Speaker 1: gun now. As in the wake of Trump's victory, and

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Speaker 1: I think the first caveat we should give everyone is like,

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Speaker 1: if you are reacting in a way that is totally

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Speaker 1: reasonable to this news, being depressed, right, if you're somebody

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Speaker 1: who deals with suicidal ideation, if you have been spiraling lately,

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Speaker 1: if you have been thinking about self harm, if you

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Speaker 1: are just not in a stable mental place, and especially

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Speaker 1: if you have no experience with firearms and are not

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Speaker 1: in a stable mental place, don't go rush to pick

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Speaker 1: one up now. Look for one thing, I assure you

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Speaker 1: they will be available in the future. They are not

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Speaker 1: going to get harder to buy.

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Speaker 2: No, you know. It mights be of a line from

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Speaker 2: the movie We Were Soldiers, which is actually a pretty

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Speaker 2: pretty good movie speaking oh yeah, yeah, yeah, it's a

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Speaker 2: lot of fun, not a Gibson. It was pretty good.

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Speaker 2: And there's a scene where like the old hardened soldier

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Speaker 2: from Korea World War two, Rhea it gets the Vietnam

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Speaker 2: and he's like, he's just got a pistol, and like

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Speaker 2: everyone's around him saying don't you one to In m

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Speaker 2: sixteen he goes, don't worry, There'll be plenty of those

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Speaker 2: laying around if I need one, So right, kind of

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Speaker 2: that's where we're at in this country.

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Speaker 4: Don't worry.

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Speaker 2: There'll be plenty laying around if you need one. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we are not entering a period where that's you know,

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Speaker 1: I think there are some specific worries where there may

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Speaker 1: be attempts to restrict specific groups from arming themselves. But

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Speaker 1: even so, I wouldn't say that elevates it above a threat.

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Speaker 1: If you are dealing with suicidal ideation, having a gun

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Speaker 1: is not a talisman, as our friend tactical girlfriend often

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Speaker 1: brings up, and you shouldn't treat it as one. And

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Speaker 1: part of what that means is that, like, you have

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Speaker 1: to model like the threat that you're facing, right and

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Speaker 1: if you are not in immediate danger, if nobody is

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Speaker 1: threatening to kill you specifically, you know, then that may

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Speaker 1: not be the safest thing for you, right and particularly,

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Speaker 1: I think the other side of it that Carl, you

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Speaker 1: are much more qualified to talk about with than me,

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Speaker 1: is that if you are going to buy a firearm,

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Speaker 1: if you want that to be a thing that can

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Speaker 1: actually protect you in a situation where you are in danger,

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Speaker 1: where someone is threatening your life, you have to train

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Speaker 1: with it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: No, absolutely, I think that not to make light of

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Speaker 2: that at all with that little joke about that movie.

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Speaker 2: But the reality is we as people humans in general,

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Speaker 2: all of us are bad at threat modeling. And that's

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Speaker 2: not to say that the perceived threat that we're seeing

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Speaker 2: with the results isn't real. I think it is. But

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Speaker 2: that said, at the moment, if you're dealing with some

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Speaker 2: of those issues like you mentioned, or the living situation

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Speaker 2: you're in, or even the community around you isn't one

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Speaker 2: in which a firearm laying around is particularly safe, could

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Speaker 2: mean that you're actually inducing more threat and risk to

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Speaker 2: yourself than what might come in two years. So that

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Speaker 2: is something we have to think about very carefully. Can

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Speaker 2: I possess this responsibly? Do I know how to use

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Speaker 2: it responsibly? Am I in a place not only in

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Speaker 2: my living situation, but my mental state that possessing this

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Speaker 2: very quick and easy to use lethal device is safe

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Speaker 2: to have around? Those are questions you should ask first

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Speaker 2: before worrying about tomorrow.

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Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, I mean, maybe we should address like a

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Speaker 3: couple of things that Kyle said right off the bat,

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Speaker 3: Like you said, having a.

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Speaker 2: Fire I'm lying around right.

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Speaker 3: One thing that we should address is like, I know

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Speaker 3: I recently purchased a new gun safe, but like if

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Speaker 3: you have ex budget to buy a gun. Robert also

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Speaker 3: mentioned that without training, your liability with the gun. Right,

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Speaker 3: maybe we can break down if you have a thousand dollars,

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Speaker 3: you don't need to go out and spend a thousand

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Speaker 3: dollars on your gun. Right, perhaps it would be better

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Speaker 3: to save some of that money and put it towards

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Speaker 3: other things. I think it might make sense to just

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Speaker 3: break those down for people in case they're not familiar.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that that might be a good place

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Speaker 1: to start. Is if you decide number one, I'm in

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Speaker 1: an emotionally stable place. I either have some specific threats

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Speaker 1: or I want to be prepared for a future where

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Speaker 1: those threats are more likely. And let's start with a

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Speaker 1: budget of one thousand dollars, right, And you know this

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Speaker 1: is one There's going to be people who can't afford

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Speaker 1: a budget of one thousand dollars, and that's very unfortunate.

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Speaker 1: But this is one of those things that like isn't fair, right,

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Speaker 1: Like guns cost money, everyone has disposable income. But a

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars I think is a reasonable floor for not

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Speaker 1: just acquiring a firearm, but like the things you need

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Speaker 1: to be able to start building proficiency with it. So

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Speaker 1: let's talk about that car, like, what would you do?

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Speaker 1: What would you advise someone with a grand who is

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Speaker 1: looking into getting into shooting and also being set up

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Speaker 1: to potentially defend themselves if they need to.

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Speaker 2: Right, So, it's such a nuanced question and answer because

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Speaker 2: there's so many variabilities there, one of which is you

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Speaker 2: have to understand the living situation you're in. Are you

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Speaker 2: living in a place that is solely your own? Do

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Speaker 2: you live with roommates? Do you do you have children

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Speaker 2: and your parents? I mean, like these things all come

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Speaker 2: into the equation about how well can you secure this

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Speaker 2: thing should you acquire it? And so that comes up

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Speaker 2: to do you need a full bolt into the wall safe?

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Speaker 2: Do you need something that is locked with cable underneath

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Speaker 2: the bed that still is reasonably difficult to get into

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Speaker 2: but is accessible otherwise? Do you have a situation in

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Speaker 2: which you're the only one that could access this and

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Speaker 2: therefore you're not worried about that? So the first thing

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Speaker 2: you have to think about is that I'm taking possession

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Speaker 2: of responsibility of this. It is a lethal weapon. What

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Speaker 2: am I going to do to make sure that that

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Speaker 2: doesn't fall into the wrong hands, Whether the are people

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Speaker 2: that live within your own structure or outside of it

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Speaker 2: should something go awry, So you have to consider that.

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Speaker 2: So right off the bat is what are the situation

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Speaker 2: I'm in and what are the things I need to

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Speaker 2: consider to make sure this doesn't leak out of my control?

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Speaker 2: Because we've seen in so many instances, especially some of

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Speaker 2: the horrible spree shootings and such, in which is not

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Speaker 2: the person that possessed the gun but someone around them

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Speaker 2: that took it from them and used it for them. Absolutely,

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Speaker 2: and that's because it wasn't stored well. And so that's

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Speaker 2: number one. So you're going to think about one, are

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Speaker 2: you getting a small a pithol or a long arm?

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Speaker 2: And that's a discussion that we had too, but those

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Speaker 2: two equate. And then depending on which one of those

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Speaker 2: two you're acquiring determines the kind of safe storage requirements

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Speaker 2: that also aligned with your current living situation. Of course,

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Speaker 2: the best thing is a safe bolted to the floor

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Speaker 2: that only you can get into. But that's not viable

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Speaker 2: for everyone, yeah right, but it's something right yeah yeah.

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Speaker 1: So what comes along with that is you also, this

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Speaker 1: is going to be true at every stage of this process,

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Speaker 1: you need to know the laws of your state, and

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Speaker 1: maybe even your local area. Right Like, in Oregon, we

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Speaker 1: have very strict safe storage laws, right Like, you can

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Speaker 1: be held accountable to a higher degree in this state

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Speaker 1: if you don't secure a weapon and someone gets access

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Speaker 1: to it. Right now, Obviously, if you have a safe

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Speaker 1: and someone drills into your safe, you're not liable, right like,

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Speaker 1: you took the actions you could to stop them from

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Speaker 1: being able to get to your firearms. There's not an

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Speaker 1: expectation that you have a fortress of solitude or whatever,

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Speaker 1: but you have to have taken reasonable steps to lock

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Speaker 1: them away, right and you know that's going to be different.

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Speaker 1: A lot of states have absolutely no requirements whatsoever, but

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Speaker 1: you need to be aware of what your local legal

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Speaker 1: situation is.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I appreciate you bringing that to the table because myself,

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Speaker 2: living in Arizona, we have no such rules, and so

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Speaker 2: I can essentially you can just keep them on the floor.

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Speaker 2: I could stack them in my front yard, right I'm like,

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Speaker 2: I put them out in the yar. We'll see. I

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Speaker 2: had extra rs.

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Speaker 1: I use them to make a fence cheaper than right now,

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Speaker 1: literally cold would now.

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Speaker 2: So the thing about that is this is again, these

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Speaker 2: things get more and more complicated over time, but we

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Speaker 2: don't want to make this conversation impenetrable. But like, the

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Speaker 2: kind of safe you acquire is important too, and this

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Speaker 2: is that's a deeper topic than we could ever do

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Speaker 2: in one video. Yeah, I'm gonna go ahead and just

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Speaker 2: dovetail out to a friend of mine, Devian Olaf. He

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Speaker 2: has a channel. He does a lot of video work

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Speaker 2: about gun safe and which ones are good or bad.

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Speaker 2: But let's just say the cheap ninety dollars thing with

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Speaker 2: the cylindrical key lock, isn't it. So you've got to

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Speaker 2: be a little better than that. So I would ask them,

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Speaker 2: let's go with costs you're buying. Let's say in air fifteen,

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Speaker 2: you're probably gonna need to spend and I'm guessing here

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Speaker 2: around two hundred and fifty dollars for a safe that's

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Speaker 2: actually worth a damn Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's about what I spent recently for little hangguns safe.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So let's let's build on that. Right.

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Speaker 3: Let's say you've society, do you want a gun, and

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Speaker 3: that it is safe for you to have a gun?

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Speaker 3: I think, Yeah, the first thing you want to prioritize

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Speaker 3: is making sure that no one who who that it's

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Speaker 3: not safe gets that gun, which we've addressed, right. The

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Speaker 3: second thing that you need to prioritize is that you

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Speaker 3: could use that gun safely and like you another liability

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Speaker 3: every time, yeah, that you pick up and load that gun, right.

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Speaker 1: Yes, And part of that is in And maybe I

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Speaker 1: will have different opinions on this, but I think we're

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Speaker 1: probably sympatico picking the right type of firearm. I see

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Speaker 1: a lot of people saying, I am worried I'm going

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Speaker 1: to get attacked, you know.

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Speaker 2: I am.

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Speaker 1: I've been I've gotten a death threat. You know, I'm scared,

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Speaker 1: particularly of this group of you know, Nazis or whatever.

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Speaker 1: So I'm going to buy a handgun. And I will

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Speaker 1: tell you right now. My opinion is that if you

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Speaker 1: are looking for a self defense weapon, a handgun probably

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Speaker 1: shouldn't be what you pick unless you are looking to

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Speaker 1: carry a gun.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, that's a good quote, right. I carry a

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Speaker 2: handgun because it's unwieldy to walk around with a fifty

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Speaker 2: BMG yeah, yeah, yeah.

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Speaker 1: I cannot. I cannot take my ar with me in

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Speaker 1: the street, right, so I keep an eye on me.

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Speaker 2: You know, handguns are the most difficult thing to use

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Speaker 2: skillfully under distress and duress than any other firearm. And yes,

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Speaker 2: above and beyond that, they are actually the least the

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Speaker 2: fact of it doing the job you think they're going

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Speaker 2: to do than anything else.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they're a shocking number of people are shot way

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Speaker 1: more times than you would expect they could survive with

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Speaker 1: a handgun, right, Like that is just a reality of

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Speaker 1: the way that they work, because they're much much less

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Speaker 1: powerful than a rifle. And it's also like, I had

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Speaker 1: a friend a couple of years ago who bought a

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Speaker 1: snubnose thirty eight, thinking, well, this is simple, I can't

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Speaker 1: fuck it up. It's a good And I took her

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Speaker 1: out and was like, I'm going to set up a

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Speaker 1: ten foot target and we'll see how many times you

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Speaker 1: can hit it with this gun. And she could not

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Speaker 1: do it one out of five times. And then I

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Speaker 1: brought out my glock and she was able to hit

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Speaker 1: it every time.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 1: And it's because one of those is a much easier

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Speaker 1: weapon for somebody who is complete a complete novice to

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Speaker 1: learn how to use functionally. Right, And it's not the

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Speaker 1: snubnose thirty eight in the roughest.

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Speaker 2: Of most senses. Typically the smaller the gun is, the

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Speaker 2: more a professionally you need to be to use it right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And like with that in mind, you're responsible for

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Speaker 3: every shot you fire right training in self defense? What

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Speaker 3: by fucking accident because you don't know how to clean

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Speaker 3: your gun or what have you. Every bullet that leaves

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Speaker 3: that barrel, it's your fault and every one of those

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Speaker 3: is potentially someone's life. So when you're thinking about buying

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Speaker 3: a gun, you want to have something where you can

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Speaker 3: a handle it safely and be discharging and know where

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Speaker 3: that bullet's going to go.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So on that note, this has been asked for

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Speaker 2: me many times, and we're talking about we're all we

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Speaker 2: are on the same page. It's like when someone asking

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Speaker 2: this question and it comes up more than you'd think.

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Speaker 2: First of all, we're getting past the issue of like

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Speaker 2: are you safe to onllness and safe storage. So now

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Speaker 2: we're at the point you are buying a gun, right,

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Speaker 2: so you have to think, oh, what's the threat? Are

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Speaker 2: we worried about three years from now and the potential

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Speaker 2: realities of a very caustic and dangerous political future. Are

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Speaker 2: you worried about only defense? Are you worried about your

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Speaker 2: own self protection walking down the street, because obviously you're

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Speaker 2: not going to be well, not obviously, but for the

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Speaker 2: most part, you're not going to be carrying an AR

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Speaker 2: fifteen down the street. But if you are only worried

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Speaker 2: about your castle, make a joke about castle, doctor, And

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Speaker 2: if you're only worried about your house, inside your house,

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Speaker 2: there is no reason to be picking a pistol none whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: Now, I will say that there's a number of folks

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Speaker 1: in the lefty gun space who will say, so, just

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Speaker 1: get an AR fifteen. That's not always going to be

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Speaker 1: practical depending on your loss, right, Like, that is not

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Speaker 1: something that we can say everyone will be able to do, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: but we can say there will be a non handgun

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Speaker 1: option that will probably be a better fit for you.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, And this is where we see a lot

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Speaker 2: of people in the gun space. It's kind of weird,

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Speaker 2: like cultural shifts in the zeitgeist. What's the cool defensive

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Speaker 2: thing of the time. But there's a lot to be

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Speaker 2: said depending on what you think you're going to have

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Speaker 2: to shoot at. Hopefully never of course, but like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: an AR fifteen does things like armor piercing in terms

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Speaker 2: of kevlar and da da da da dah. But for

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Speaker 2: home defense, it really still is kind of hard to

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Speaker 2: go wrong with a shotgun in many instances, and that

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Speaker 2: should not be ignored. You know what else shouldn't be ignored.

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Speaker 3: It's our obligation to pivot to advertisements about every fifteen

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Speaker 3: minutes on this show. All right, we're back, Kyle, you'd

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Speaker 3: mentioned that you think a shotgun sometimes can be more

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Speaker 3: effective than NOW fifteen.

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Speaker 2: Especially.

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Speaker 3: Another thing I would add, as you're in a state

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Speaker 3: like California, the laws regarding Samuel automatic centerfire rifles are

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Speaker 3: incredibly confusing. It's extremely easy to buy something on Amazon

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Speaker 3: and slap it on your gun and render it a felony.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I would generally say, like in most situations, an AR,

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Speaker 1: if you're new to shooting, it's going to be easier

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Speaker 1: to figure out. They're very simple, easy to upgrade and modify.

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Speaker 1: But like, yeah, in California, in a state New York

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Speaker 1: is similar, it's very easy to commit a felony with

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Speaker 1: an AR fifteen and not know that you are. And

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Speaker 1: you don't want to find out that your gun is

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Speaker 1: a felony when you have to use it in self defense.

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Speaker 2: Right. This is an instance in which the good old

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Speaker 2: man again. I'm not trying to perm I'm not I'm

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Speaker 2: not on team shotgun here, But when it comes to

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Speaker 2: cross all state lines, I mean, sure, there's an exception somewhere,

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Speaker 2: but for the most part, a manually pump activated shotgun, yeah,

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Speaker 2: is likely to not run a foul of the law anywhere. Additionally,

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Speaker 2: there's a good chance that if you were to and

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Speaker 2: we have to consider all realities, there's a good chance

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Speaker 2: that should you need to use it, that when you're

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Speaker 2: in court trying to defend yourself for using this lethal weapon.

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Speaker 2: A shotgun doesn't seem to evoke the same concerns let's say,

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Speaker 2: from courts and from judges that.

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Speaker 4: An ar might and yar.

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Speaker 2: You know, regardless of how common they are and how

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Speaker 2: much they proliferate society, there's still those scary rifles. A

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Speaker 2: shotgun does not tend to evoke that same kind of response.

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Speaker 2: It is most likely legal almost anywhere. And the diversity

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Speaker 2: of I mean, you can use in it really bridge

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Speaker 2: of the gap from one yard to one hundred yards

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Speaker 2: or more. But a lot of people that are new

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Speaker 2: to guns, we'll think, well, shotgun don't need to aim.

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Speaker 2: That is incorrect shotguns need to be aimed as much

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Speaker 2: as any other long arm. They're just very effective when

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Speaker 2: they actually connect.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's one of those I think because I do change,

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Speaker 1: like what I am taking with me based on where

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Speaker 1: I go, and like when I'm in California, I generally

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Speaker 1: like if I'm going camping or something, I'll make sure

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Speaker 1: i have a twelve gage in the car, right, because

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to try to get whatever this month's

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Speaker 1: gun laws are, right, you know, like that's just not

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Speaker 1: practical to me. That said, I think because there are

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Speaker 1: a number of people who will be very frustrated us

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Speaker 1: talking about shotguns. One thing that they are right about

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Speaker 1: is there's a different type of training that's necessary with

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Speaker 1: the shotgun, and they are in some ways more complicated

437
00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:53,520
Speaker 1: to use than an ar. In part because for every shot,

438
00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:56,080
Speaker 1: well unless it's a semi automatic, like for every shot

439
00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:59,280
Speaker 1: you're pumping it, right, and like that is that there's

440
00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:03,680
Speaker 1: muscle memory that has to be built there. Right, it's harder,

441
00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:05,879
Speaker 1: you know, maybe a little bit slower to get up

442
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:07,400
Speaker 1: to a level or at least you have to train

443
00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:10,000
Speaker 1: differently with it. Right. The other thing about it is

444
00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:12,480
Speaker 1: that like it loads very differently you know, a shotgun

445
00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:16,400
Speaker 1: is a completely different kind of ammunition than an ar has,

446
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:18,240
Speaker 1: which all goes back to the whole like you have

447
00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:21,280
Speaker 1: to be willing to train with whatever it is you're

448
00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:23,880
Speaker 1: going to use fair enough. Yeah.

449
00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:24,400
Speaker 2: See.

450
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:27,880
Speaker 3: Ideally, like if you're in this position of thinking, if

451
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:31,359
Speaker 3: you can find a friend or failing that, arrange that

452
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:35,760
Speaker 3: will allow you to try different guns. I think as

453
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:37,400
Speaker 3: a novice you're going to pick up if you've never

454
00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:39,159
Speaker 3: shot a gun before. I probably wouldn't pick up a

455
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:42,600
Speaker 3: twelve gage shotgun and start pueuing away because the recoil

456
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:45,440
Speaker 3: will be quite profound and notable to you. So don't

457
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:47,119
Speaker 3: start there. Start with something else.

458
00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:50,600
Speaker 1: There's smaller shotguns a twenty gauge, yeah.

459
00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:52,960
Speaker 3: And those are fine expectedly if you're a smaller statute person,

460
00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:55,520
Speaker 3: even a twenty eight or sixteams are hard to probably

461
00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:56,560
Speaker 3: buy defensive ammunition.

462
00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:56,800
Speaker 4: Four.

463
00:20:56,880 --> 00:21:01,240
Speaker 3: But I think if you can and you begin that journey,

464
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:03,760
Speaker 3: like after the TV ball, say with Hangouns, find one

465
00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:04,480
Speaker 3: that fits your hand.

466
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 2: You probably have no.

467
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:07,679
Speaker 3: Idea what fits you and feels good if you're just

468
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:11,640
Speaker 3: starting out. Yeah, finding someone who is local to you,

469
00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:15,359
Speaker 3: ideally who has some experience who can help you along

470
00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 3: that process, I think, and someone who you trust, right,

471
00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:20,400
Speaker 3: Like I've been like I have to train.

472
00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:22,639
Speaker 2: I have a concealed carry weapons permit in California.

473
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:25,159
Speaker 3: The last time I went to take a course, like

474
00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 3: from the outset, I got like xenophobia, homophobia, like jokes

475
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,119
Speaker 3: that I guess the guy who was instructing the course

476
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 3: thought that everyone was in on just like they made

477
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:39,320
Speaker 3: me feel unwelcome and I'm a cis heep white guy. Yeah,

478
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 3: but I think maybe we should address that, Like, if

479
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,399
Speaker 3: you're thinking getting started, what kind of instruction should you

480
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 3: look for? Where should you look for it? And like

481
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,679
Speaker 3: what would you recommend maybe other sources to Kyle, Like

482
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 3: your YouTube channel has been a great resource for me.

483
00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:58,640
Speaker 2: This is this is where we're in the firearms it's

484
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:01,160
Speaker 2: owning a thing doesn't mean a community. So there's always

485
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:03,919
Speaker 2: phrase the gun community. It's not a thing. Owning a

486
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 2: thing doesn't make a community. A community is a group

487
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,679
Speaker 2: of people that bond together over a mutual beliefs and

488
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:12,120
Speaker 2: hopefully care for one another. So there's no firearms community.

489
00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:14,399
Speaker 2: But that said, the broad scope of people that have

490
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 2: been interested in the topic for the longest duration of

491
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:20,199
Speaker 2: time has been mostly seceded to a group that we

492
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 2: would not find ourselves aligned with or comfortable with being around.

493
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 2: And so this is where the community building thing is

494
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 2: real because the more we build communities and we're behind

495
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,639
Speaker 2: in this regards in terms to alternative voices in the

496
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,160
Speaker 2: firearm space, but the more we build that community not

497
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 2: only online but amongst one another, the more we're going

498
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 2: to have safer, better spaces for us to work together

499
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,400
Speaker 2: to learn how to use these things safely and efficiently.

500
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:46,200
Speaker 2: And that is a challenge. If you walk in sight

501
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,439
Speaker 2: unseen to a place that is probably foreign to you

502
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,880
Speaker 2: in firearms land, sadly at this time point in time,

503
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 2: is a pretty good chance it's not going to be

504
00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:56,760
Speaker 2: something you're going to be comfortable with, quite honestly, just

505
00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 2: like you mentioned, James, like, it's going to be that

506
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:00,600
Speaker 2: kind of stuff. There's probably going to be Trump stuff

507
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,119
Speaker 2: on the wall, there's probably going you're probably going to

508
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:05,600
Speaker 2: hear some jokes that are just jokes but you know

509
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:07,719
Speaker 2: they're really not. Yeah, that's the kind of space that

510
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,160
Speaker 2: that's filled with. And so when people come and say,

511
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:11,679
Speaker 2: well who can I go to to get this training with,

512
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 2: I'm like, that's challenging. There's some options online. There's like

513
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 2: Operation Blazing Sword, there's a there's there's the Liberal Gun

514
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,760
Speaker 2: Club has some training options as well. But what's better

515
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:25,960
Speaker 2: is finding people and interconnecting with people of like mind

516
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 2: around you, if you can, and working together, and then

517
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 2: actually building a real community that isn't a gun community.

518
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:33,879
Speaker 2: And that's where we're going to find solace in the

519
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:36,159
Speaker 2: ability to get better with this stuff together. Not a

520
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 2: great exactly a strong answer, but if the truth. But

521
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:43,440
Speaker 2: if you're going in, if you're going in just unhindered,

522
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:45,600
Speaker 2: you're going to expect it to be a place that

523
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 2: you're probably not going to be happy with.

524
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 6: Yeah.

525
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think that's a really good point. I'd

526
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:52,879
Speaker 1: like you can we talk a little bit more about

527
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:57,880
Speaker 1: training options, like not just because you mentioned Operation Blazing Sword,

528
00:23:57,920 --> 00:23:59,879
Speaker 1: I'd like to hear a little more about them, but

529
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 1: also where people could go for like reading and videos

530
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,920
Speaker 1: in order to kind of find more information on how

531
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:08,280
Speaker 1: to develop proficiency.

532
00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 2: Yeah. So okay, so YouTube university doesn't teach you how

533
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,400
Speaker 2: to actually like effectively hit targets with something that stiffly

534
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 2: that you can You can't. There's no way to learn

535
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 2: that besides doing it. But in terms of general firearms understanding,

536
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 2: learning some of the history, learning about how guns work,

537
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:28,440
Speaker 2: there are some YouTube resources out there. Tactical Girlfriend you

538
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:31,560
Speaker 2: already mentioned, has four years of a legacy of content

539
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:33,640
Speaker 2: on her site that a lot of it is focused

540
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:37,240
Speaker 2: on beginner style content. In fact, she just posted a playlist.

541
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 2: She has kind of stopped making videos in general, she

542
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,199
Speaker 2: mentioned that a while back, but she still has her

543
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 2: content online and she posted a playlist recently of all

544
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 2: of her how to get going videos one oh one stuff,

545
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:52,400
Speaker 2: and that would kind of be where I'd start with. Yes, absolutely,

546
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 2: my channel in Range TV has some of that. I

547
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:56,880
Speaker 2: tend to focus a little bit on the more esoteric

548
00:24:56,920 --> 00:25:01,440
Speaker 2: and like next level, but that's not to say it's

549
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 2: not there as well. So I'm not trying to sell promote,

550
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 2: but I would actually say her playlist is going to

551
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 2: be better than some of my own, although we have

552
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 2: stuff like that on in Range TV as well. If

553
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:12,119
Speaker 2: you want to open up that dark boy called reddit,

554
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 2: the Liberal Gun Club has resources on it. If you

555
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:17,399
Speaker 2: go there, they have a list of people and local resources.

556
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:20,119
Speaker 2: You can also google the Liberal Gun Club. I'm not

557
00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:22,679
Speaker 2: even trying to say anyone doing that is necessarily identifying

558
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 2: as a liberal, but they have gathered lists of statewide

559
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:29,400
Speaker 2: resources as many as they can that are providing training

560
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 2: in regional places. That would be a good place to start.

561
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,199
Speaker 2: Operation Blating Sword is a subset of that. Blake o'l

562
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 2: I can I pronounced them that dam Blake has been

563
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:39,960
Speaker 2: on my channel and you'll find him there in the

564
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,080
Speaker 2: Liberal Gun Club listing. When I think of that, I

565
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:44,240
Speaker 2: would say, go to YouTube. He had a tactical girlfriend.

566
00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:46,200
Speaker 2: Go to in Range TV if you want to see

567
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:48,159
Speaker 2: maybe not one on one but next level stuff, but

568
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 2: a friendly space to you, and then check out the

569
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 2: Liberal Gun Club best I can say, because they do

570
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 2: have a list of resources that they're gathering across the country.

571
00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:00,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think one thing that tactical girl old

572
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:03,320
Speaker 1: friend talks about that is a because because you're right,

573
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:05,080
Speaker 1: and I think this is an important point that like,

574
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:07,640
Speaker 1: you have to spend time shooting, and you know that

575
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 1: costs money in order to get better, But there is

576
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:13,200
Speaker 1: one thing that you can do that does not cost

577
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:16,760
Speaker 1: ongoing money to get better with a handgun if you're

578
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:19,440
Speaker 1: again looking to carry a gun, which is dry fire training, right,

579
00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:23,479
Speaker 1: which is a very useful process of building proficiency. You

580
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 1: can do it. I mean you could do it every

581
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:26,919
Speaker 1: day if you want. It will help. It does not

582
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 1: replace needing to go shoot right, but you can find guides.

583
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:33,239
Speaker 1: Tactical girlfriend talks about it a lot, but you can

584
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 1: find other guides online. And that is a way that

585
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:39,400
Speaker 1: you can kind of stretch your AMMO budget and gain

586
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:40,640
Speaker 1: additional proficiency.

587
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:43,680
Speaker 2: There are even products design specifically for that. One of

588
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:45,919
Speaker 2: them Possule Mind and there are others like mantis X,

589
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 2: and you make sure your gun is safely unloaded in

590
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 2: your proficient with that part of it. You put these

591
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:52,680
Speaker 2: devices in and you can actually fire a dry fire

592
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,159
Speaker 2: is firing with no ammunition the gun, click out a

593
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 2: target on the wall, and it'll teach you things about

594
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:58,880
Speaker 2: like did you pull to the right, did you push

595
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 2: to the yes? Did you dip the gone? And those

596
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 2: are very good products that you can use once you

597
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 2: buy them. Gets more money, but you could train professionally

598
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 2: in a safe place without firing live ammunition and improve

599
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:09,200
Speaker 2: your skills quite a bit.

600
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:10,400
Speaker 1: That's a good point, yep.

601
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:14,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say like another organization I would plug

602
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 3: is armed Equality, especially for like LGBTQIA people. Friends of mine,

603
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 3: very nice people. Perhaps we should go back then to that,

604
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 3: Like Roberts mentioned dry firing, we'd meant.

605
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 1: Well, first, I think we need to go to ads Jas.

606
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:30,440
Speaker 3: You're right, Robert, we should go back to Chumba Casino.

607
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, so dry fire at the wall and think of

608
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 1: Trumpet Casino, or just download an operator from neurallink that

609
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 1: you got for me long Yep, that's right, that's right.

610
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 1: Our primary sponsors a brain ship.

611
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:54,399
Speaker 2: All right, we're back.

612
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 3: So we've had discussion about training, safe storage, and a

613
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 3: little bit about like what to look at firearms wise.

614
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 3: I want to go back to that third one because

615
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 3: you are marketed at so heavily when you're trying to

616
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 3: buy a firearm, right, and the likelihood of you getting misinformation.

617
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:13,640
Speaker 6: Right.

618
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 3: We all know smaller statute people who have been given

619
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:21,119
Speaker 3: yeah as snubnose thirty eight, a gun that's entirely inappropriate

620
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 3: for them.

621
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 2: Cow.

622
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:25,560
Speaker 3: What like if you could maybe go through like each

623
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 3: major category, right, if we do hanggun, shotgun, semi automatic rifle,

624
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 3: maybe one that is compatible with ar band states, and

625
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 3: one that's you know, yeah, you're in real America.

626
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 1: There are some options like the ares SCR that are

627
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 1: basically AR fifteen's that are a lot easier to keep

628
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 1: in compliance in a state like California, but they are

629
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 1: also more than twice as expensive as like a budget

630
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 1: AR fifteen right like, Which is not to say it's

631
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 1: impossible to have a budget AR fifteen that is in

632
00:28:57,400 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 1: comp a lot in compliance with California law. It's just

633
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:02,600
Speaker 1: I am not going to take on the responsibility of

634
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 1: telling you how to do that legally, because when I

635
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 1: lived in California, I was only about eighty percent share

636
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 1: that I was in compliance.

637
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 2: With the law.

638
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 3: If you're in California, my advice would be to go

639
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 3: to a shop and buy the gun complete.

640
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 2: Yes, don't piece it together of the Internet.

641
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 1: That's good, good advice.

642
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 2: Oh well, if you're a new gun owner, don't piece

643
00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 2: to get anything together, because the knowledge to make something

644
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 2: reliable that you've put together from bits and pieces is

645
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:28,480
Speaker 2: not a good idea. You want something that's got to

646
00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 2: I mean literally, you want something from a quote unquote

647
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,800
Speaker 2: reputable manufacturer, but as a warranty, like, let's just be that.

648
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 2: Don't even start with trying to put something together. Yeah yeah,

649
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 2: so let's just go ahead and start with pistol. So

650
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 2: the challenge there is like, of course, it would be

651
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 2: very nice to be able to buy like four of them,

652
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 2: because you can train with the twenty two and practice

653
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 2: with this. M Well, let's go with the constraint that

654
00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 2: we had earlier of this thousand dollars and you're going

655
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 2: to buy a pistol and with it you plan to train,

656
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 2: get better, be proficient, but also maybe have to use

657
00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 2: it for self defense. You really want to stick with

658
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 2: a nine millimeter. I mean there are smaller guns like

659
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 2: three eighties and such like that, but we're getting into

660
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,200
Speaker 2: specialist guns. Yeah, what is what I'm going to say

661
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 2: here across the board? When I recommend something, it's going

662
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 2: to be the opposite of specialist. It's going to be

663
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 2: the most bland, boring possible thing.

664
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:08,920
Speaker 4: Yeah.

665
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 2: And when it comes to that, and I know that,

666
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 2: everyone like, but it's a nine millimeter probably a glock yep.

667
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 2: The Glock nineteen is a relatively reasonably sized gun. The

668
00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 2: seventeen's a little bigger the nineteens. In this nice middle ground,

669
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 2: it is carriable, it's small enough to be concealed should

670
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 2: you have the right to do so, but it's big

671
00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 2: enough to be viable for being reasonably accurate with with

672
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 2: not extensive amounts of training, but enough training to get good.

673
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 1: Yeah.

674
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 2: And it's a bunch around the nine milimeters magazine that

675
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 2: just playing works. Yep, Yeah, yep.

676
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 3: If you're on a tight bygit, I will say that

677
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:45,479
Speaker 3: cops are always you can find trade in police clocks

678
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 3: pretty cheap, cops don't shoot very much.

679
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 2: You can sometimes get some pretty good deals on those.

680
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:50,440
Speaker 4: Yep.

681
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 2: That's it. I'm revealing a little bit of future history

682
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 2: of what's going on in range. We're doing a video

683
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 2: in a couple of weeks. There is a strange trade

684
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 2: imbalance between us and never mind on the politics. Yeah,

685
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,640
Speaker 2: Turkey and they are making some really high end, oh

686
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 2: well made gun There is a glock clone from Turkey

687
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 2: that I can vouch for yet. But this is the

688
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 2: kind of where we're at in the gun space. This

689
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,960
Speaker 2: thing is interchangeable with all glock parts and the guns

690
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 2: like two hundred fifty bucks. Oh well, you can't be

691
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:19,160
Speaker 2: We don't know. Yeah, I'm not saying go buy that,

692
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 2: but I'm saying we're going to do a review of it.

693
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,680
Speaker 2: The point is there are glocks and glocklike things. They

694
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 2: can get the price down.

695
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, And so you're looking at you know, if

696
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 1: you get a budget ar for five hundred bucks, you know,

697
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 1: a budget not a nine millimeter handgun. Because even if

698
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 1: with not counting that one, there are other budget options

699
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 1: that are in the three hundred ish dollar range. You

700
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 1: just have to look around a bit. And I should

701
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:45,720
Speaker 1: also note buying used with a firearm is not like

702
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 1: buying used with electronics. If a gun is well maintained,

703
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 1: it will outlast you. Right, there are some parts that

704
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 1: will need replacing from time to time. Right, Your springs

705
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 1: and stuff are going to age faster than other things.

706
00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 1: And like barrels, you can shoot out, but it takes

707
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:03,400
Speaker 1: quite a bit of shooting to shoot a barrel, you know, smooth. Right,

708
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:06,960
Speaker 1: So it's never a bad to consider like finding, like

709
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 1: you said, like a police trade in or something like that,

710
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 1: Like that could be a great way to save money.

711
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 4: Absolutely.

712
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 2: So when it comes to the pistol, we're talking about

713
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 2: buying just one pretty much boil it down to a

714
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 2: nine millimeter yep, that is probably a polymer frame gun,

715
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 2: not some big heavy steel thing. A glock is the

716
00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 2: is like the de facto, but there are others. I mean,

717
00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 2: there's there's hks, there's rugers.

718
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 7: Yeah.

719
00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:30,840
Speaker 2: I like SIGs, but they're pricier. Yeah, yeah, yeah. The

720
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 2: thing about glock is block's been around forever. It's the

721
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:38,479
Speaker 2: standard finding, accessorizing, buying magazines, or even getting repairs done

722
00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:40,720
Speaker 2: to a block is ubiquitous across the country. If you

723
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 2: get a glock y, you'll be able to deal with it,

724
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 2: fix it, do whatever you want to it straight up.

725
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 1: And what has helped me a lot in general is,

726
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 1: you know, I have my carry gun, I have my

727
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 1: my home defense firearm, and then I have I have

728
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 1: bought built a couple of firearms from the ground up,

729
00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 1: and I would certainly, as you said, I would never

730
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 1: have started there. But because I had the extra money

731
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 1: doing that means that has given me so much deeper

732
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:06,640
Speaker 1: of an understanding of what goes wrong when things do

733
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:09,200
Speaker 1: go wrong with a gun and how to fix it.

734
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 1: I've replaced every part on my carry gun at this point,

735
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 1: right like, over time, and it's given me a much

736
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 1: deeper level of understanding off just like mechanically, how these

737
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 1: things function. You know, building an AR fifteen was the

738
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 1: same process, and I'm really I do find that valuable. Obviously,

739
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 1: it's throwing more money at the problem too totally.

740
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:33,400
Speaker 2: So the other advantage of nine milimeter, which is reasonably

741
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 2: cheap defeat and shoot, he reasonably cheap to practice with.

742
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 2: For those of you that don't know anything about guns.

743
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 2: He will typically practice with what's called FMJ bulkpack ammunition. Yeah,

744
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 2: nine milimeter one hundred and fifteen grain. It's just a

745
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 2: bullet that's got a copper jacket on it, and that's

746
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 2: your practice AMMO. And then for Carrie, should you be

747
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 2: carrying it, you'll probably want to carry something that's specifically

748
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 2: designed to be defensive ammunition. It'll be far more expensive

749
00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 2: per box, But once you get to the point of yes,

750
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 2: I am ready safe and capable to carry this, you're

751
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 2: going to want to pick something gold Dots Spear gold

752
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 2: Dots are a haul of point ye designed to specifically

753
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:08,839
Speaker 2: be for self defense. But make sure the gun you've

754
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 2: chosen works reliably with that defensive AMMO, because even though

755
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:15,000
Speaker 2: it works one hundred percent with that FMJ, it may

756
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:16,879
Speaker 2: not work with the defensive AMMI. Y'ALLMO have to play

757
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:17,440
Speaker 2: with a little bit.

758
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:21,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, we should also know when you are buying AMMO online,

759
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:23,319
Speaker 1: which is not going to be legal in every state.

760
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 1: But most people will be able to do this. It

761
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 1: pays to be careful. There is a lot of stuff

762
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:32,239
Speaker 1: that is sketchier out there, and there can be consequences.

763
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:34,239
Speaker 1: I have had a firearm. I have had like a

764
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 1: handgun blow up in my hand as a result of

765
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 1: getting ammunition that I had not shot before. This was

766
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:44,279
Speaker 1: in fact turkish. I think it was because I think

767
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 1: it was a hot load, but it's possible that it

768
00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:50,279
Speaker 1: was the result of a bullet be a squib and

769
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 1: that then jammed in the barrel and then another around

770
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:55,920
Speaker 1: came in after it. I generally have been pretty good

771
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:57,840
Speaker 1: at checking to make sure there's a hole in the

772
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 1: paper with each shot, which is something you should be

773
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 1: making sure of, like yeah, when you're shooting, because if

774
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:06,440
Speaker 1: you get if you shoot around that like does not

775
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:08,759
Speaker 1: have enough powder behind it, right, if you get a

776
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 1: bad round, it can jam in the barrel, and then

777
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 1: the second round can cause the barrel to burst. This

778
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 1: is also why we always wear eye protection. But when

779
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 1: looking at AMMO, if you think this looks like good

780
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 1: AMMO and it's cheap, look online add like reddit to

781
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:24,439
Speaker 1: the name. See what other people say about it, right,

782
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 1: Like see if you can find anything written about that.

783
00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 1: If other usually other people, if it's like a less

784
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:33,279
Speaker 1: reliable manufacturer, will have said I've had a bad experience

785
00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 1: with this ammunition. Yep, do your diligence right the first

786
00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 1: time you're shooting a new kind of cheap target AMMO.

787
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 2: That that being said, like there's a lot of names

788
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 2: that almost anyone that's never owned a gun before will recognize,

789
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:48,440
Speaker 2: names like Remington, right, Winchester. Yes, these are That's not

790
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 2: to say that they don't make mistakes too, but like,

791
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 2: if you're going to go buy a Winchester bulk back

792
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:56,400
Speaker 2: of ammunition, you are bonding at least what is generally

793
00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 2: considered consumer level reliable AMMO.

794
00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:02,279
Speaker 1: If you're buying it absolutely crazy, Bob's reloading shack right,

795
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:05,439
Speaker 1: you don't know that was what because it's a lot

796
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:08,239
Speaker 1: of the sketchy stuff isn't even a manufacturer. It's like

797
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:10,759
Speaker 1: Ammo that you may not notice immediately it's like, oh wow,

798
00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:12,919
Speaker 1: this seems really cheap, and then it'll say in small

799
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 1: letters remanufactured right, which means somebody has reloaded it, reloaded AMMA,

800
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:19,840
Speaker 1: And like you know, you can reload Ammo and have

801
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 1: it be perfectly good ammunition. But do you know who

802
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 1: reloaded this amo?

803
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:24,520
Speaker 8: Right?

804
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 2: I will tell you as a person that shoots a

805
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:29,400
Speaker 2: lot and has been doing it for decades, I personally,

806
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:32,840
Speaker 2: even with all that, I will never fire re manufactured ammunition.

807
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,839
Speaker 2: I want to deal with Crazy Bob's weird badnes Yes.

808
00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:38,920
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, exactly, Crazy Bob's bad Wednesday.

809
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 2: It's yeah.

810
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:46,440
Speaker 3: We've addressed a pistol, right, like I want to dress lunguns.

811
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:48,719
Speaker 3: And then you mentioned a couple of things callege. You

812
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 3: should also address whitch up like accessories. Robert mentioned eye protection.

813
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 2: So let me let me add one more piece of

814
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:55,440
Speaker 2: the pistol.

815
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:57,239
Speaker 4: We'll move on. Uh.

816
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:00,400
Speaker 2: The thing now, the whizbang thing now is every custill

817
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 2: has a red dot site on it. A red dot

818
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:04,520
Speaker 2: site is essentially an electro optical box that sits on

819
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 2: the top of the slide and you look through it

820
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:08,800
Speaker 2: to aim and it projects a red dot like almost

821
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:10,720
Speaker 2: like a laser dot if you're not familiar with it

822
00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:14,040
Speaker 2: to aim with. For the most part, I'm not saying

823
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 2: you shouldn't have one because they're cool, But for the

824
00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 2: most part, a person getting into this specifically for self

825
00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:21,480
Speaker 2: defense does not need one of those. You don't need

826
00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:23,799
Speaker 2: to spend three hundred dollars on a red dot. The

827
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:26,000
Speaker 2: iron sights that come on any of these guns should

828
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:28,960
Speaker 2: be sufficient for most purposes. So don't get suckered into

829
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:31,160
Speaker 2: I need that. Yeah, if that's something you want later,

830
00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 2: think about it, but it's not a requirement.

831
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:33,759
Speaker 9: Now.

832
00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 1: That said, if a gun has one on it, I

833
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 1: don't agree with people who say, like, you can't learn

834
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 1: to shoot on a red dot. I think that that's

835
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:42,959
Speaker 1: now you should. You will need to look up because

836
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 1: it may not be sighted, how to site it right,

837
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 1: because it like red dots are a thing like you

838
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 1: need to dial them in right, and there is a

839
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 1: way to do that. Again, you can find guides to

840
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 1: this online, just like you can find guides like mounting

841
00:37:57,200 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 1: a scope on a rifle. These are complex mechanical tasks.

842
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:04,279
Speaker 1: A red dot less so than a scope. But you

843
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 1: can't just buy a gun with a red dot on

844
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:08,919
Speaker 1: it and trust that that red dot points out where

845
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:10,959
Speaker 1: the bullet's going to go. That's not how they work.

846
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:13,439
Speaker 2: Absolutely. My point being is if you gave me, you said,

847
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:15,440
Speaker 2: this person here needs to be able to hit a

848
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:18,120
Speaker 2: target fifteen yards away, you've got one hour, right, I

849
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:20,040
Speaker 2: would not be messing by giving them a red dot.

850
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 2: I would give them with something with iron sights and

851
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:22,800
Speaker 2: just get them through the task.

852
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:24,960
Speaker 1: If that's what go where I'm going with that, Yeah,

853
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:29,359
Speaker 1: I think that's perfectly reasonable. Yeah. I prefer, like, now

854
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 1: that I know what I'm doing, to use my red

855
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:34,000
Speaker 1: dots and stuff. But I also pretty regularly shoot with

856
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:37,439
Speaker 1: iron sights, in part because I like it, Like it's

857
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,400
Speaker 1: it's enjoyable mechanically, and it's kind of how I learned.

858
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, or don't get me wrong, it is better. Yeah, Yeah,

859
00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 2: it also has another level of complexity and it's more

860
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 2: to go wrong, Like if you're installing that.

861
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 3: Yourself, it's annoying and it's easy to mess up and

862
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 3: then you're yeah upset and yeah. Yeah, let's move on

863
00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 3: to long guns. Like one thing that we should mention

864
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 3: that you might buy an AR, specifically an AR actually

865
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,240
Speaker 3: and find that it comes with no sighting systems at all. Yes,

866
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:09,920
Speaker 3: and that's a thing to build into a budget. So

867
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:13,239
Speaker 3: let's talk about like what to get feel budget in

868
00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 3: in their long gun catcherycal.

869
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:16,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, so when we go to long guns, we talk

870
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 2: about rifles and shotguns. Let's stick with rifles for now

871
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:22,600
Speaker 2: I'm assuming so in that regard, this is the thing

872
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 2: where like, actually I have a video on my channel

873
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:26,879
Speaker 2: about the NFA, which is the National Firearms Act, which

874
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:29,399
Speaker 2: is what regulates a lot of machine guns and stuff.

875
00:39:29,440 --> 00:39:32,759
Speaker 2: But this also occurs across many gun control laws. They're

876
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 2: frequently ablest and the things that they pust the most

877
00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:39,320
Speaker 2: rescriptions on are the things that are actually most capable.

878
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:44,320
Speaker 2: And that means that means AAR fifteen's in their general

879
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:46,560
Speaker 2: guys with a pistol grip and a red dot site

880
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 2: which we just mentioned for pistols and a thirty round

881
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:51,399
Speaker 2: magazine is the thing that is going to be the

882
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:55,840
Speaker 2: most I could get anyone. I tell you, anyone capable

883
00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:57,920
Speaker 2: of hitting at a target at fifty yards within a

884
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:00,799
Speaker 2: four hour training session with a red dot sided Air

885
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:03,480
Speaker 2: fifteen and a good magazine. It's a good ammunition. Air

886
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 2: fifteens are light, low recoil. They're loud because of the

887
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:09,759
Speaker 2: five five six, but they're light, low recoil guns that

888
00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:14,440
Speaker 2: almost any one of most body structure can handle. Now

889
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:17,040
Speaker 2: there's exceptions, of course, if you have specific physical challenges

890
00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:21,760
Speaker 2: that's another discussion. But if almost anyone tiny to large

891
00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:25,239
Speaker 2: can handle a basic Air fifteen, and it is the

892
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 2: gun that is most focused on for gun control, ironically

893
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 2: places like California where they take away things that make

894
00:40:30,719 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 2: it more functional like no testol grip or reduce your

895
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:37,880
Speaker 2: magazine capacity because they're trying to diminish the functionality of

896
00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 2: the gun. But the reality is the reason they're doing

897
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 2: that is because that is the gun that is most

898
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:44,080
Speaker 2: functional for most people, and it is therefore the one

899
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 2: that almost anyone can handle pretty well with the smallest

900
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:48,280
Speaker 2: amount of training.

901
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:48,719
Speaker 4: Yeah.

902
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:51,799
Speaker 1: Yes, And I think there's a good point there in

903
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:55,239
Speaker 1: if I were coaching someone who is buying an AR

904
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 1: that has no you know, does not have iron sights

905
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 1: on it at all, you are it is much easier

906
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:03,839
Speaker 1: to learn how to sit in and use a red

907
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 1: dot on an AR than learning how to adjust the

908
00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:10,520
Speaker 1: site the iron sights on an AR fifteen. Right, Like,

909
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 1: not that you can't learn that that you should again,

910
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:14,400
Speaker 1: you have to, you can watch a video on it,

911
00:41:14,440 --> 00:41:17,520
Speaker 1: but it's much more intuitive to set up a red

912
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 1: dot in that way.

913
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:20,719
Speaker 2: This is actually where I would flip flop. If you're

914
00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:23,120
Speaker 2: with the pistol, don't concern yourself too much with the

915
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:25,760
Speaker 2: red dot. If you're going with an air fifteen, concern

916
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:28,400
Speaker 2: yourself with the lease. Get a red dot to the opposite.

917
00:41:28,600 --> 00:41:31,279
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, unless you were like in the Marines or

918
00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:34,600
Speaker 1: something and you know how to dial in your irons right,

919
00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:37,239
Speaker 1: and even then you're gonna have a better time with

920
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:37,839
Speaker 1: a red dot.

921
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:40,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, totally and once and a red dot is

922
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:42,440
Speaker 2: very intuitive. So one of the things that people are

923
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:43,960
Speaker 2: from the with firearms, but when you bring up a

924
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:46,840
Speaker 2: long arm, there's multiple points of contact to the person

925
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:48,880
Speaker 2: shooting the gun. When you bring up a pistol, you

926
00:41:48,920 --> 00:41:50,799
Speaker 2: probably have two hands on it and you're pushing your

927
00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:53,759
Speaker 2: arms out almost like you're like making a triangle. When

928
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:55,640
Speaker 2: you're using a long arm like an air fifteen, there's

929
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 2: a butt stock on your shoulder, your cheek is on

930
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:00,680
Speaker 2: the actual comb which is the bay of the stock.

931
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:03,120
Speaker 2: Your other hand your support hand, it's holding the gun

932
00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:04,920
Speaker 2: up on the front of it. You have a minimum

933
00:42:04,960 --> 00:42:07,440
Speaker 2: of three points of contact with a red dot. That

934
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:10,520
Speaker 2: makes it very stable and easy to get reliable hits.

935
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 2: And the red dot means you can keep both eyes open,

936
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:15,360
Speaker 2: don't need to worry about the idiosyncrasies of focusing on

937
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:18,399
Speaker 2: a front site. Essentially, if it's zero meaning the dot

938
00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:20,680
Speaker 2: is regulated to where the gun hits. And you put

939
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:22,840
Speaker 2: the dot on the thing and press the trigger without

940
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:25,360
Speaker 2: doing something like jerking the gun, you'll hit the target.

941
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:27,520
Speaker 2: And so that's why that matters.

942
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, so what sort of bud each people be looking at,

943
00:42:32,239 --> 00:42:36,360
Speaker 3: and like, would you be comfortable recommending, like even brands

944
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 3: that they should look at.

945
00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:39,840
Speaker 2: It all comes down the cost when it comes to

946
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:41,839
Speaker 2: our fifteen. So you can spend as much money as

947
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 2: you want. The reality is I have a video on

948
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:47,000
Speaker 2: the channel. Never mind if you like or dis like

949
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:49,839
Speaker 2: the company. They're one of the ones that really push

950
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 2: the lower cost products out there. PSA it stands for

951
00:42:52,640 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 2: Palm Models, pal Metal State Armory. You can go there

952
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 2: and get your branded trump lower but at the same time,

953
00:42:57,280 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 2: you can get an AR fifteen for like four hundred bucks.

954
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, and like in the gun space, you're not going

955
00:43:03,200 --> 00:43:05,920
Speaker 1: to find someone to buy who is spotless and selling

956
00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:07,760
Speaker 1: guns in large numbers cheaply.

957
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:12,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, like that's not so like so so for foreigner

958
00:43:12,200 --> 00:43:15,279
Speaker 2: bucks are around there. From PSA, you can get a

959
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:18,560
Speaker 2: traditional what's called an M four. It's essentially a sixteen

960
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:21,279
Speaker 2: inch car beam. It won't have any sighting system on it,

961
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:24,680
Speaker 2: so expect to throw another two hundred bucks ish onto

962
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:27,440
Speaker 2: a reasonable red dot site on that. So for around

963
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 2: the six hundred dollars range, you're gonna get a gun

964
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:33,560
Speaker 2: that's going to weigh seven pounds, but it's gonna have

965
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:36,000
Speaker 2: low recoil and you're going to have something that's for

966
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 2: the most part, reasonably reliable. Is it the best of

967
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 2: the company. Is the best of the best. No, but

968
00:43:41,160 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 2: it's reasonably lightweight. It is well manufactured. I've done videos

969
00:43:44,239 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 2: about them on my channel. They've worked just fine, and

970
00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:50,759
Speaker 2: so foreigner ish for the gun of the two hundred,

971
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:53,759
Speaker 2: for the sighting system, couple mags, you could get out

972
00:43:53,760 --> 00:43:58,440
Speaker 2: of the door for under seven hundred dollars with everything

973
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:01,320
Speaker 2: probably under that, maybe under six hundred even if you're careful.

974
00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:03,319
Speaker 2: Oh but let me plug one thing. If you've got

975
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:05,560
Speaker 2: lots and lots more money, double that. You you know what

976
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:07,879
Speaker 2: would Staughtter do? Carbon which I designed. It'll be half

977
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:11,400
Speaker 2: the way and super reliable from Katie Arms. But I

978
00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:13,359
Speaker 2: love mind doesn't bring any money to me. I'm just saying.

979
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:16,080
Speaker 2: The point I'm making here is you can get something

980
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:17,960
Speaker 2: good enough, and if you've got more money, there is

981
00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:21,279
Speaker 2: better out there that are lighter, more reliable guns, but

982
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 2: you don't need to. As my point, I'm not trying

983
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 2: to sell anything here.

984
00:44:24,120 --> 00:44:26,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, they are one of the few manufacturers who offer

985
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:29,520
Speaker 3: like a California compliance solution at checkout, which is nice

986
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:30,600
Speaker 3: for California people.

987
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, so that can be a really beneficial thing

988
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:36,360
Speaker 1: to you in terms of you know, not having it

989
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:38,800
Speaker 1: be something that you're scared about.

990
00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:43,680
Speaker 2: California Compliant will probably mean no flash hider, no pistol grim,

991
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:45,280
Speaker 2: and a fixed magazine at least.

992
00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:47,279
Speaker 3: At point in time you can have you can have

993
00:44:47,480 --> 00:44:50,520
Speaker 3: the removable magazine if you don't have the flash heighted

994
00:44:50,600 --> 00:44:52,160
Speaker 3: pistol grip and the collapsing stock.

995
00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:54,719
Speaker 2: So okay, all right, Well, if you can buy it

996
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:57,879
Speaker 2: from them ready to go, there's I know, there's also

997
00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:01,759
Speaker 2: magazine capacity requirements in so maybe you have to buy

998
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:03,520
Speaker 2: like a couple ten round bags or something like that.

999
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:03,759
Speaker 9: Yeah.

1000
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:06,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, obviously thirty round bags are better than ten round bags,

1001
00:45:06,680 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 2: and for mostly if you live in a place like California,

1002
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:11,640
Speaker 2: do not worry too much about that. If you get

1003
00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:14,319
Speaker 2: a little proficiency on that, a couple ten round bags

1004
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:14,879
Speaker 2: will do a lot.

1005
00:45:15,239 --> 00:45:18,440
Speaker 1: And to be honest, in self defense, shootings. The odds

1006
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 1: are load that you will be firing that many rounds

1007
00:45:21,200 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 1: right now. If you're in a self defense shooting where

1008
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:28,160
Speaker 1: you do need more bullets than that, there's really nothing

1009
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:31,080
Speaker 1: that can replace having those bullets you know available.

1010
00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:33,920
Speaker 3: But yeah, don't get reptraniacs on it, like there's no

1011
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:35,240
Speaker 3: something you can change.

1012
00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:37,760
Speaker 1: The fact that you only have a ten round magazine

1013
00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:39,760
Speaker 1: does not mean that you can't become reficient.

1014
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:41,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I don't want anyone here to think that

1015
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:42,719
Speaker 2: I'm saying you shouldn't. You should be able to get

1016
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:44,400
Speaker 2: a six ye round bag. You're one far as I'm concerned.

1017
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:48,760
Speaker 2: Places like California have these restrictions, have them statistically speaking,

1018
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:51,240
Speaker 2: and I don't know if this data has changed. Most

1019
00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 2: self defense shootings happen within three yards, three seconds, three

1020
00:45:55,080 --> 00:45:55,680
Speaker 2: shots fired.

1021
00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:56,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, yep, yeah, yep.

1022
00:45:57,360 --> 00:45:59,200
Speaker 3: I think it's really good to remember that when you

1023
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:01,239
Speaker 3: are seeing some ube they tell you need to be

1024
00:46:01,239 --> 00:46:04,920
Speaker 3: able to have thirty rounds in five five hundred yards.

1025
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:08,680
Speaker 1: I don't go downtown without my backpack and my SBR

1026
00:46:08,719 --> 00:46:12,600
Speaker 1: and three hundred black at with six thirty round magazine successible.

1027
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 2: I was in conceptive Man Scat of cities. Yeah. Yeah,

1028
00:46:16,640 --> 00:46:19,280
Speaker 2: I carry an RPG and I take the little safety

1029
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:21,080
Speaker 2: camp off because I like to live that way.

1030
00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:25,560
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, yeah, dangerously down. My clothing is made out

1031
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:28,520
Speaker 1: of debt cord. I just wear nothing but debt cord

1032
00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 1: wherever I go. We're all going down.

1033
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:32,799
Speaker 2: At least you take some people with you. It's all

1034
00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 2: city blocks though. Yeah, self defense mataden. But let me

1035
00:46:37,120 --> 00:46:38,719
Speaker 2: say one more thing about long arms. Another thing you'll

1036
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:40,600
Speaker 2: see from people that are new in the space, depending

1037
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:43,440
Speaker 2: on what they've seen or what they've consumed. This is

1038
00:46:43,440 --> 00:46:45,759
Speaker 2: going to get some hate. Don't bother with aks, Yeah,

1039
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:48,560
Speaker 2: just don't. This is the United States of America, and

1040
00:46:48,640 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 2: this country believes in the air fifteen. And what that

1041
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:53,240
Speaker 2: boiled down to is they're everywhere. They're prolific. The parts

1042
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:56,480
Speaker 2: are here, yeah, the repairs here, they're well manufactured. When

1043
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 2: you stray from that course to something like an AK,

1044
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:02,040
Speaker 2: your first while, you're losing eronomics. But that's a different problem.

1045
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:06,839
Speaker 2: You're dealing with an unknown quantity of problems. You get

1046
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 2: an air fifteen. That's what's in this country. It's what's prolific. Yeah,

1047
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:13,959
Speaker 2: if you were in if you were in somewhere war

1048
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:16,399
Speaker 2: torn Africa, get your AK here.

1049
00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:19,839
Speaker 1: I'll say this about the war torn AK countries because

1050
00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:22,920
Speaker 1: I've been in three countries where the primary arm is

1051
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:27,040
Speaker 1: an AK M right, like a kind of AK right Siria, Ukraine,

1052
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:30,400
Speaker 1: in Iraq. In all three of those countries, every soldier

1053
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:33,480
Speaker 1: who knew their stuff, who was proficient and had the option,

1054
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:36,760
Speaker 1: chosen AR platform. If they could get one hundred percent

1055
00:47:36,760 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 1: of the time, they're just better fire arms.

1056
00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:41,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's been my experience as well. They look cool,

1057
00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:44,320
Speaker 2: but but don't go Yeah, just get an air forea.

1058
00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:47,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like, I love my ak's, but they're they're range

1059
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:48,680
Speaker 1: fut toys, right like.

1060
00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:49,640
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1061
00:47:49,719 --> 00:47:50,960
Speaker 2: So let's talk about.

1062
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:54,560
Speaker 3: Accessorizing, which again is much easier with ais and aks. Like,

1063
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:57,360
Speaker 3: what other stuff you need to build into a budget.

1064
00:47:57,400 --> 00:48:00,200
Speaker 3: If you've not show up before, you might not know

1065
00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:04,120
Speaker 3: that you need a pro I pro sling, maybe ulster.

1066
00:48:04,520 --> 00:48:06,880
Speaker 2: Well, we'll start with the firearms accessories, right, So with

1067
00:48:06,960 --> 00:48:09,600
Speaker 2: the pistol. First of all, we talked about safe storage.

1068
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:12,799
Speaker 2: That's already off the table. With the pistol, if you

1069
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:15,480
Speaker 2: plan to carry it, you need a good reliable holster

1070
00:48:15,920 --> 00:48:17,440
Speaker 2: and a good reliable gun belt.

1071
00:48:17,520 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 1: Good lord, yes.

1072
00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:21,200
Speaker 2: Depending on how you want to carry it. That'll determine

1073
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:23,560
Speaker 2: the kind of holster. If you want an outside the waistband,

1074
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:25,960
Speaker 2: which means it sits outside your belt, that's one thing.

1075
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:28,799
Speaker 2: If you're carrying it concealed, you're probably gonna want an

1076
00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:32,560
Speaker 2: inside the waistband, which goes between your belt and your body.

1077
00:48:32,760 --> 00:48:34,880
Speaker 2: Again under the level of training there, because when you're

1078
00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:37,279
Speaker 2: drawing from that, things can go wrong. Sure, and that's

1079
00:48:37,320 --> 00:48:39,200
Speaker 2: where people tend to shoot themselves. So that's what you

1080
00:48:39,239 --> 00:48:41,720
Speaker 2: needed to be very cautious of. Yeah, but with a pistol,

1081
00:48:41,760 --> 00:48:45,200
Speaker 2: typically you're going to want probably an extra magazine or two.

1082
00:48:45,280 --> 00:48:47,040
Speaker 2: It may come with one, depending on what you bought.

1083
00:48:47,480 --> 00:48:49,560
Speaker 2: A quality gun belt and a quality holster.

1084
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:54,360
Speaker 1: Now what about a forty four derringer and an ankle

1085
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:56,759
Speaker 1: holster on each angle? Right like that seems like the

1086
00:48:56,840 --> 00:48:59,360
Speaker 1: ideal solution. Anytime you're in danger. You just got a

1087
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:01,680
Speaker 1: squat right down there, you know. Yeah, yeah, yeah, no,

1088
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:05,520
Speaker 1: get real low, especially when you've.

1089
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:09,280
Speaker 2: Been pushed pushed onto your back by by the mob

1090
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:11,480
Speaker 2: and you're there in that scene and you're pulling it

1091
00:49:11,520 --> 00:49:12,400
Speaker 2: out of your ankle holster.

1092
00:49:12,480 --> 00:49:16,400
Speaker 1: Yeah right, no, no, no, just just get a wire

1093
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:18,520
Speaker 1: around the trigger and attach it to your toes so

1094
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:21,319
Speaker 1: that you can squeeze your toes and fire the What.

1095
00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:25,440
Speaker 2: You need is the belt buckle revolver from North American US. Yeah,

1096
00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:28,759
Speaker 2: that is great. Yeah, no, from that freaking movie, the

1097
00:49:28,880 --> 00:49:30,280
Speaker 2: vampire movie Quinn Tarantino.

1098
00:49:30,840 --> 00:49:33,520
Speaker 1: Oh geez, so that's still done.

1099
00:49:33,680 --> 00:49:38,439
Speaker 2: God yeah, no, before the belt, a magazine or two

1100
00:49:38,440 --> 00:49:41,120
Speaker 2: extra it might come with them, and a quality holster. Now,

1101
00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:43,640
Speaker 2: the obvious question is what's a quality holster And the

1102
00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:45,719
Speaker 2: obvious answer is there's too many out there to be

1103
00:49:45,719 --> 00:49:48,480
Speaker 2: able to offer you that answer right now. Probably something

1104
00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:50,920
Speaker 2: polymer if it's going to be outside the waistband. And

1105
00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:53,480
Speaker 2: this will be another one that'll get people fired up. Generally,

1106
00:49:53,480 --> 00:49:56,320
Speaker 2: avoid the Surpa holsters unless you really want to have

1107
00:49:56,360 --> 00:49:58,080
Speaker 2: a lot of training. Surple holsters are one that have

1108
00:49:58,120 --> 00:50:00,480
Speaker 2: a little button on the side that the gun to

1109
00:50:00,520 --> 00:50:02,480
Speaker 2: come out if you're not brained well or have the

1110
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:04,640
Speaker 2: wrong gun in it. It also allows you to accidentally shoot

1111
00:50:04,640 --> 00:50:05,759
Speaker 2: yourself quite easily as well.

1112
00:50:05,840 --> 00:50:09,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, best avoided. That's that's a very good point. And

1113
00:50:09,120 --> 00:50:12,320
Speaker 1: also one thing I will note is there's a danger

1114
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:14,160
Speaker 1: that a lot of people aren't aware of with leather,

1115
00:50:14,239 --> 00:50:16,319
Speaker 1: which is that leather holsters. Now, there are some leather

1116
00:50:16,320 --> 00:50:19,360
Speaker 1: holsters that have like a trigger area reinforced with kaidex,

1117
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:22,960
Speaker 1: which is, you know, a rigid, plasticky substance. But if

1118
00:50:22,960 --> 00:50:26,080
Speaker 1: it's not in time, those can start to like get

1119
00:50:26,200 --> 00:50:29,040
Speaker 1: weaker and warn in such a way that it can

1120
00:50:29,080 --> 00:50:32,160
Speaker 1: also cause it to press the trigger when you holster it. Like,

1121
00:50:32,200 --> 00:50:35,000
Speaker 1: that's a thing that has happened to people. So I

1122
00:50:35,360 --> 00:50:39,040
Speaker 1: generally think you want whatever you want the trigger guard

1123
00:50:39,120 --> 00:50:42,200
Speaker 1: to be rigid and not something that's going to like

1124
00:50:43,239 --> 00:50:46,200
Speaker 1: warp and be malleable around the trigger, right, Like the

1125
00:50:46,239 --> 00:50:48,399
Speaker 1: whole point is that it stops the trigger from fire.

1126
00:50:48,560 --> 00:50:50,840
Speaker 3: Yes, this you want to avoid that. How about with

1127
00:50:51,000 --> 00:50:53,719
Speaker 3: the with the long guns, like what are you going

1128
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:57,360
Speaker 3: to need to budget for those? And then other things

1129
00:50:57,440 --> 00:50:59,719
Speaker 3: like for shooting Germany that you'll need if you don't

1130
00:50:59,719 --> 00:51:00,200
Speaker 3: already have.

1131
00:51:00,719 --> 00:51:02,280
Speaker 2: So when it comes to the long arm, we already

1132
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:04,080
Speaker 2: said if you're going to get an Air fifteen, you're

1133
00:51:04,120 --> 00:51:05,759
Speaker 2: going to want to stick some sort of red dot

1134
00:51:05,840 --> 00:51:08,799
Speaker 2: site on it. The lowest cost ones that are the

1135
00:51:09,200 --> 00:51:14,160
Speaker 2: unbelievably bomb proof are a Chinese company called hollow Sun. Hell, yeah,

1136
00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:16,360
Speaker 2: I have a hollow Sun from twenty seventeen. That is

1137
00:51:16,760 --> 00:51:19,400
Speaker 2: still works just fine. I love my hollow suns. Yea,

1138
00:51:19,600 --> 00:51:22,600
Speaker 2: my hollow sun's been bounced down an asphalt road and

1139
00:51:22,640 --> 00:51:23,520
Speaker 2: it still works fine.

1140
00:51:23,600 --> 00:51:26,479
Speaker 1: So it's the opposite of a fail sun, a hollow sun.

1141
00:51:27,760 --> 00:51:29,480
Speaker 2: So you can pick up a red dot hollow sun.

1142
00:51:29,560 --> 00:51:32,480
Speaker 2: Those can go and you can get those sometimes sometimes

1143
00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:34,719
Speaker 2: that low is like one hundred and fifty bucks. Yeah,

1144
00:51:34,800 --> 00:51:37,680
Speaker 2: so you'll need a red dot site. A sling is nice,

1145
00:51:38,080 --> 00:51:41,080
Speaker 2: not required, especially if you're going to be using within

1146
00:51:41,600 --> 00:51:43,920
Speaker 2: the premises of your property. You probably don't need to

1147
00:51:43,920 --> 00:51:47,880
Speaker 2: worry about that. It Also, slings can cause issues like

1148
00:51:47,920 --> 00:51:49,759
Speaker 2: get caught on things or things in your house or

1149
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:52,279
Speaker 2: even tangle you up. So that's this training issue. So

1150
00:51:52,440 --> 00:51:56,359
Speaker 2: sling is iffy an extra magazine or two. And if

1151
00:51:56,400 --> 00:51:58,480
Speaker 2: you're planning on needing to use this for a defensive

1152
00:51:58,520 --> 00:52:01,640
Speaker 2: purpose inside of your home or structure or at night,

1153
00:52:01,800 --> 00:52:03,359
Speaker 2: it's not the worst thing in the world to throw

1154
00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:04,080
Speaker 2: on a flashlight.

1155
00:52:04,360 --> 00:52:10,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, yes, especially if it's like a defensive firearm, like

1156
00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:13,960
Speaker 1: it's your home defense gun or a carry gun like

1157
00:52:14,000 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 1: a flashlight. And also if you're I think it's generally

1158
00:52:16,640 --> 00:52:19,240
Speaker 1: a good idea if you're going to carry a carry

1159
00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:22,319
Speaker 1: firearm with a flashlight. Have another flashlight that's not on

1160
00:52:22,400 --> 00:52:25,080
Speaker 1: a gun, because one thing you should never do is

1161
00:52:25,160 --> 00:52:27,839
Speaker 1: use your gun flashlight to look at just random shit

1162
00:52:27,960 --> 00:52:29,719
Speaker 1: that you need a flashlight.

1163
00:52:29,880 --> 00:52:31,960
Speaker 2: When you come home at night in the dark. You forgot,

1164
00:52:32,000 --> 00:52:37,359
Speaker 2: you forgot, you can't find which key is the right Nah,

1165
00:52:37,440 --> 00:52:38,560
Speaker 2: don't do that. Don't do that.

1166
00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:43,520
Speaker 3: Don't do that. That's a pretty good list of accessories.

1167
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:45,560
Speaker 3: And make sure you have a lad air and eye

1168
00:52:45,600 --> 00:52:46,560
Speaker 3: protection as well.

1169
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:48,960
Speaker 2: So that's we're gonna go all the safety side of things.

1170
00:52:48,960 --> 00:52:51,640
Speaker 2: You need proper shooting glasses. That means not the glasses

1171
00:52:51,640 --> 00:52:54,120
Speaker 2: that you picked up for readers at Walgreen. If they're

1172
00:52:54,120 --> 00:52:56,520
Speaker 2: shooting glasses can be as cheap as nine bucks all

1173
00:52:56,560 --> 00:52:57,920
Speaker 2: the way up to hundreds of bucks. You can get

1174
00:52:57,920 --> 00:52:59,759
Speaker 2: them at the sporting good store. But there does not

1175
00:53:00,200 --> 00:53:02,439
Speaker 2: with the kind of plastic to be able to take

1176
00:53:02,920 --> 00:53:06,640
Speaker 2: shrapnel or hits from pieces of fragments that are high velocity.

1177
00:53:06,680 --> 00:53:10,600
Speaker 2: They're meant for that. So ten dollars shooting glasses. Yes, yes,

1178
00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:12,120
Speaker 2: hearing protection.

1179
00:53:12,239 --> 00:53:14,359
Speaker 10: Those can be squishy earplugs you put in your ear,

1180
00:53:14,640 --> 00:53:17,120
Speaker 10: or they can be over the head mouths. Do not

1181
00:53:17,840 --> 00:53:20,719
Speaker 10: ever shoot guns except in the most critical conditions or

1182
00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:24,800
Speaker 10: situations without eye protection and hearing protection. Because that's the

1183
00:53:24,880 --> 00:53:27,279
Speaker 10: kind of stuff where you lose an eye and every

1184
00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:29,759
Speaker 10: time you fire that gun, you're losing hearing every time.

1185
00:53:30,040 --> 00:53:35,160
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, and like for the really because obviously most

1186
00:53:35,280 --> 00:53:38,200
Speaker 1: like it hurts to shoot a firearm without hearing protection.

1187
00:53:39,040 --> 00:53:41,640
Speaker 1: Like you can get away with shooting a gun without

1188
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:44,480
Speaker 1: EyePro every time, but the one time, right, which is

1189
00:53:44,480 --> 00:53:48,320
Speaker 1: why I really emphasize eye protection. It's easy to convince

1190
00:53:48,360 --> 00:53:50,879
Speaker 1: yourself I don't need to have it on right now, you.

1191
00:53:50,960 --> 00:53:54,399
Speaker 2: Do, like, because that's the day that it does the thing.

1192
00:53:54,960 --> 00:53:59,400
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, guns do fuck up for lack of a

1193
00:53:59,400 --> 00:54:03,239
Speaker 1: better tear and you really don't want your eye unprotected

1194
00:54:03,280 --> 00:54:03,719
Speaker 1: if they do.

1195
00:54:03,920 --> 00:54:05,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's a bad.

1196
00:54:05,400 --> 00:54:08,719
Speaker 2: Day, absolutely, and so but you on the safety side

1197
00:54:08,719 --> 00:54:11,239
Speaker 2: of eye protection and hearing protection, it can be as

1198
00:54:11,280 --> 00:54:13,680
Speaker 2: cheap as ten dollars shooting glasses and a bottle of

1199
00:54:14,360 --> 00:54:17,080
Speaker 2: squishy earplugs. You're going to be in there for twenty bucks.

1200
00:54:17,160 --> 00:54:19,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, it doesn't have to be expensive. Make sure

1201
00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:21,520
Speaker 3: you have it and make sure you use it.

1202
00:54:21,680 --> 00:54:23,160
Speaker 2: But you know what, before you do any of this,

1203
00:54:23,239 --> 00:54:24,719
Speaker 2: you know what's a smart thing to do. Go take

1204
00:54:24,719 --> 00:54:26,239
Speaker 2: a class from Stop the Bleed and learn how to

1205
00:54:26,320 --> 00:54:28,760
Speaker 2: use tourniquets and medical gear. Yeah, and have that around

1206
00:54:28,800 --> 00:54:31,160
Speaker 2: anyway before you ever buy a gun. Go do that, Yes,

1207
00:54:31,200 --> 00:54:33,279
Speaker 2: a mess, that's the most important thing you could do

1208
00:54:33,280 --> 00:54:33,760
Speaker 2: for anyone.

1209
00:54:33,960 --> 00:54:37,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, Yes, And that, as you said, should be a

1210
00:54:37,200 --> 00:54:40,080
Speaker 1: priority before getting the firearm. And if you have the

1211
00:54:40,160 --> 00:54:42,560
Speaker 1: money to get and train a gun, you have no

1212
00:54:42,680 --> 00:54:45,759
Speaker 1: excuse for not having an individual first Aid kit an

1213
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:48,279
Speaker 1: IFAC and the knowledge of how to use it.

1214
00:54:48,320 --> 00:54:50,600
Speaker 2: Ye right, And I think Stop the Bleed classes are

1215
00:54:50,680 --> 00:54:52,360
Speaker 2: usually free. You can look it up and Stop the

1216
00:54:52,360 --> 00:54:55,360
Speaker 2: Bleed dot com or dot org, google it. Take a

1217
00:54:55,360 --> 00:54:57,279
Speaker 2: class that's chasy, how to use a tournique, use how

1218
00:54:57,320 --> 00:54:59,880
Speaker 2: to use a bandage. Have an IPAC, as was just mentioned,

1219
00:55:00,120 --> 00:55:02,840
Speaker 2: can be a pretty simple kit. And as you said, Robert,

1220
00:55:02,840 --> 00:55:04,440
Speaker 2: if you can afford a gun, you can afford that

1221
00:55:04,880 --> 00:55:07,160
Speaker 2: and have that with you on the range anytime you're shooting,

1222
00:55:07,160 --> 00:55:10,040
Speaker 2: because as you said, guns can fuck up. They usually don't,

1223
00:55:10,160 --> 00:55:12,200
Speaker 2: but if they do, you're gonna want that I fact,

1224
00:55:12,280 --> 00:55:14,600
Speaker 2: and that I fact, and that training might just help

1225
00:55:14,640 --> 00:55:16,239
Speaker 2: your neighbor one day when they get in a car

1226
00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:17,280
Speaker 2: accident or whatever.

1227
00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:21,040
Speaker 1: I regularly make the decision not to carry my gun

1228
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:23,359
Speaker 1: with me places. Right, you know, I'm gonna go out

1229
00:55:23,360 --> 00:55:24,960
Speaker 1: and get drunk tonight. I don't need if I have

1230
00:55:25,000 --> 00:55:27,040
Speaker 1: a fire alarm one me when I'm drunk. But you

1231
00:55:27,080 --> 00:55:30,000
Speaker 1: know what I always have is the IFAC, right every

1232
00:55:30,080 --> 00:55:33,200
Speaker 1: single time. You know, because number one drunk with an

1233
00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:34,040
Speaker 1: I FAC, I'm no.

1234
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:34,640
Speaker 4: I might.

1235
00:55:34,760 --> 00:55:39,560
Speaker 1: I'm probably less effective, but I'm not going to endanger anyone.

1236
00:55:39,640 --> 00:55:41,040
Speaker 2: You're just like, hey, buddy, I think you need a

1237
00:55:41,080 --> 00:55:45,280
Speaker 2: PARNA kit and he's like, no, give me here. Google said,

1238
00:55:45,280 --> 00:55:50,520
Speaker 2: this goes around the neck. But once again, a softable

1239
00:55:50,680 --> 00:55:53,000
Speaker 2: class and an IPAC is more likely to serve you

1240
00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:55,120
Speaker 2: or your community more than any gun ever will.

1241
00:55:55,280 --> 00:55:55,480
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1242
00:55:55,560 --> 00:55:57,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's a great place. I would say that.

1243
00:55:57,760 --> 00:56:00,600
Speaker 3: If you are going down this pathway and you're looking

1244
00:56:00,640 --> 00:56:04,160
Speaker 3: to join openly leftist gun organizations, there are several, right

1245
00:56:04,239 --> 00:56:06,360
Speaker 3: John Brown, grun Club, Socialist RFE Association.

1246
00:56:07,200 --> 00:56:08,800
Speaker 2: We've had those people on a show before.

1247
00:56:09,400 --> 00:56:11,719
Speaker 3: Be cautious when you're doing that, and keep an eye

1248
00:56:11,719 --> 00:56:15,080
Speaker 3: on things because that could be something that might get

1249
00:56:15,120 --> 00:56:18,160
Speaker 3: you into trouble in the long run. So it's something

1250
00:56:18,960 --> 00:56:19,680
Speaker 3: to be aware of.

1251
00:56:20,320 --> 00:56:22,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, it might be good to just put a holder

1252
00:56:22,520 --> 00:56:25,320
Speaker 1: on joining a new organization until we're a few months

1253
00:56:25,320 --> 00:56:28,759
Speaker 1: into this thing coming up next year. Maybe have an

1254
00:56:28,800 --> 00:56:32,000
Speaker 1: idea about what kind of things might be safe and

1255
00:56:32,040 --> 00:56:33,680
Speaker 1: what kind of things might be less safe.

1256
00:56:33,680 --> 00:56:36,200
Speaker 2: Definitely, no, but none of that stops you from using signal,

1257
00:56:36,239 --> 00:56:39,480
Speaker 2: building community and learning how to use a firearm properly.

1258
00:56:39,239 --> 00:56:43,000
Speaker 1: Right at meeting people, yes, and like training with them,

1259
00:56:43,160 --> 00:56:47,680
Speaker 1: you know, and taking getting training, building proficiency. Absolutely, all

1260
00:56:47,719 --> 00:56:51,200
Speaker 1: of that is legal and will remain legal. Just don't

1261
00:56:51,239 --> 00:56:53,879
Speaker 1: start if anyone ever talks to you about let's make

1262
00:56:53,880 --> 00:56:57,480
Speaker 1: a militia to do that, it's time to leave that conversation,

1263
00:56:57,760 --> 00:56:59,600
Speaker 1: right because, among other things, at this point, there's a

1264
00:56:59,600 --> 00:57:00,840
Speaker 1: good chance it's the FBI.

1265
00:57:02,400 --> 00:57:06,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you live in Michigan, do not. Yeah. Yeah,

1266
00:57:06,360 --> 00:57:09,000
Speaker 2: this podcast brought to you by co Intel proh.

1267
00:57:10,400 --> 00:57:14,279
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, yeah, that's great.

1268
00:57:14,320 --> 00:57:15,759
Speaker 2: But I mean it's a tough challenge. And so the

1269
00:57:15,800 --> 00:57:17,520
Speaker 2: other thing you can do is also, once you've got

1270
00:57:17,520 --> 00:57:19,760
Speaker 2: your basic proficiency up and you know that you are

1271
00:57:20,120 --> 00:57:22,680
Speaker 2: safe in terms of handling things, let me throw this

1272
00:57:22,720 --> 00:57:25,520
Speaker 2: out there too. It doesn't have to be any specific one,

1273
00:57:25,560 --> 00:57:27,480
Speaker 2: although remember you're going into a space that may not

1274
00:57:27,560 --> 00:57:31,680
Speaker 2: be politically your comfortable place. A good place to build

1275
00:57:31,760 --> 00:57:35,000
Speaker 2: up skill is to go shoot matches competitions. Yeah, for

1276
00:57:35,040 --> 00:57:38,160
Speaker 2: the most part, it's business oriented. You'll see you'll hear

1277
00:57:38,240 --> 00:57:40,600
Speaker 2: some stupid comments here or there, depending on what match

1278
00:57:40,640 --> 00:57:42,440
Speaker 2: you're at, But the reality is you're not there for that.

1279
00:57:42,680 --> 00:57:44,320
Speaker 2: You're there to get better with your gun on a

1280
00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:46,320
Speaker 2: course of fire that they put up for you. Pay

1281
00:57:46,360 --> 00:57:47,840
Speaker 2: your ten bucks or twenty bucks and learn how to

1282
00:57:47,840 --> 00:57:50,960
Speaker 2: shoot better in those conditions. And that's another space to

1283
00:57:51,440 --> 00:57:53,320
Speaker 2: once the basic trainings out of the way, don't go

1284
00:57:53,320 --> 00:57:55,760
Speaker 2: to match the b training. Use the match to help

1285
00:57:55,840 --> 00:57:58,880
Speaker 2: increase your skill after you've gotten training. But those matches

1286
00:57:58,920 --> 00:58:00,840
Speaker 2: can be a place to really help you out a lot.

1287
00:58:01,000 --> 00:58:02,400
Speaker 2: And there's a lot of them around and those are

1288
00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:03,920
Speaker 2: easier to find than almost anything.

1289
00:58:04,200 --> 00:58:06,720
Speaker 3: Yep, practice scores where you can lick them up if

1290
00:58:06,720 --> 00:58:07,280
Speaker 3: you're into that.

1291
00:58:07,280 --> 00:58:09,760
Speaker 2: Kind of thing. Excellent, Thanks very much for joining uskyle.

1292
00:58:09,800 --> 00:58:12,120
Speaker 3: Do you want to very briefly plug your YouTube channel

1293
00:58:12,520 --> 00:58:13,760
Speaker 3: where can people find you?

1294
00:58:13,800 --> 00:58:13,960
Speaker 11: Well?

1295
00:58:14,040 --> 00:58:15,680
Speaker 2: Sure, and thank you for having me on the show.

1296
00:58:15,720 --> 00:58:17,800
Speaker 2: It's always a treat. I really appreciate it. It's always

1297
00:58:17,800 --> 00:58:19,080
Speaker 2: great to be able just to hang out with you

1298
00:58:19,120 --> 00:58:22,919
Speaker 2: both do it more often. You can find my work

1299
00:58:22,960 --> 00:58:25,240
Speaker 2: It's in Range TV. You can find my website at

1300
00:58:25,560 --> 00:58:30,040
Speaker 2: Range dot tv. I'm distributed, decentralized across multiple platforms, a

1301
00:58:30,080 --> 00:58:34,200
Speaker 2: predominant one being YouTube. Cover everything from civil rights history,

1302
00:58:34,280 --> 00:58:38,360
Speaker 2: human rights to firearms to from old West flintlocks up

1303
00:58:38,400 --> 00:58:40,840
Speaker 2: to the most modern machine guns across the channel. Some

1304
00:58:40,880 --> 00:58:43,360
Speaker 2: of it is instructional, some of its history. And I've

1305
00:58:43,360 --> 00:58:46,320
Speaker 2: got a cool video dropping tomorrow, in fact, well tomorrow

1306
00:58:46,320 --> 00:58:49,240
Speaker 2: based on when we're recording this on the Opium Wars

1307
00:58:49,360 --> 00:58:54,720
Speaker 2: and how Britain and China's firearms technology discrepancy caused Hong

1308
00:58:54,800 --> 00:58:56,600
Speaker 2: Kong to be owned by Britain. That's the kind of

1309
00:58:56,640 --> 00:58:58,640
Speaker 2: stuff I do on my channel, So check that out.

1310
00:58:59,040 --> 00:59:01,160
Speaker 2: And if you want to find matches that are going

1311
00:59:01,200 --> 00:59:03,680
Speaker 2: to be a place that is truly an inclusive space,

1312
00:59:04,040 --> 00:59:06,480
Speaker 2: we do run matches called Brutality Matches. You can find

1313
00:59:06,520 --> 00:59:09,480
Speaker 2: them at brutalitymatches dot org. They're not monthly, we have

1314
00:59:09,560 --> 00:59:11,560
Speaker 2: run a couple of them across the country, but I

1315
00:59:11,560 --> 00:59:13,640
Speaker 2: can guarantee you that's the space you will feel comfortable

1316
00:59:13,680 --> 00:59:14,520
Speaker 2: because we make.

1317
00:59:14,400 --> 00:59:15,680
Speaker 1: It that way. Awesome.

1318
00:59:15,760 --> 00:59:16,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks col.

1319
00:59:28,520 --> 00:59:34,200
Speaker 12: Last week, two major news networks CNN and CNBC partnered

1320
00:59:34,240 --> 00:59:39,520
Speaker 12: with the so called prediction market Calshi, an online political

1321
00:59:39,560 --> 00:59:43,760
Speaker 12: betting platform, to use Calshi's real time betting data in

1322
00:59:43,840 --> 00:59:47,880
Speaker 12: TV news segments, online news content, and, as Calshi announced

1323
00:59:47,920 --> 00:59:51,960
Speaker 12: on X the Everything app quote to integrate prediction markets

1324
00:59:52,080 --> 00:59:57,919
Speaker 12: into CNN's global newsroom, with Calshi threatening quote, a new

1325
00:59:58,080 --> 01:00:02,880
Speaker 12: era of media is here. This is it could happen here.

1326
01:00:02,920 --> 01:00:08,400
Speaker 12: I'm Garrison Davis. Regular CNN viewers may have noticed this

1327
01:00:08,560 --> 01:00:13,439
Speaker 12: integration has already been happening for some time. This past

1328
01:00:13,520 --> 01:00:16,880
Speaker 12: election cycle, news anchors used betting odds in place of

1329
01:00:17,000 --> 01:00:21,040
Speaker 12: an addition to polling data to weigh the likelihood of

1330
01:00:21,320 --> 01:00:26,800
Speaker 12: candidate's winning elections. CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enton Nate

1331
01:00:26,920 --> 01:00:29,160
Speaker 12: Silver Protege, who used to work for five point thirty

1332
01:00:29,160 --> 01:00:32,560
Speaker 12: eight trailblazed the use of political gambling data in news

1333
01:00:32,560 --> 01:00:36,439
Speaker 12: stories earlier this year. How she praised Entin by name

1334
01:00:36,600 --> 01:00:39,080
Speaker 12: in their announcement of the CNN partnership.

1335
01:00:39,200 --> 01:00:39,680
Speaker 4: Quote.

1336
01:00:40,200 --> 01:00:43,680
Speaker 12: Enton is an expert at translating what data and polling

1337
01:00:43,720 --> 01:00:46,720
Speaker 12: are saying on any given issue, and through this integration,

1338
01:00:46,920 --> 01:00:50,240
Speaker 12: he can tap into real time prediction markets data to

1339
01:00:50,320 --> 01:00:55,080
Speaker 12: better inform and fact check his reporting unquote. Here's an

1340
01:00:55,080 --> 01:00:59,000
Speaker 12: example of this reporting in a CNN segment from October

1341
01:00:59,040 --> 01:00:59,959
Speaker 12: twenty twenty five.

1342
01:01:00,440 --> 01:01:02,480
Speaker 13: If you go back six months ago, you go back

1343
01:01:02,480 --> 01:01:04,920
Speaker 13: to April k Bauld when what were we looking at. Well,

1344
01:01:04,960 --> 01:01:07,800
Speaker 13: we were looking at the Democrats with a very clear

1345
01:01:07,840 --> 01:01:10,400
Speaker 13: shot of taking control of the US House of Representatives.

1346
01:01:10,440 --> 01:01:12,840
Speaker 13: According to the Calshi prediction market odds. We saw them

1347
01:01:12,880 --> 01:01:15,560
Speaker 13: in an eighty three percent chance. But those odds have

1348
01:01:15,640 --> 01:01:18,920
Speaker 13: gone plummeting down. Now we're talking about just a sixty

1349
01:01:18,920 --> 01:01:22,160
Speaker 13: three percent chance, while the gopiece chances up like a

1350
01:01:22,240 --> 01:01:25,120
Speaker 13: rocket up like gold, up from seventeen percent to now

1351
01:01:25,160 --> 01:01:26,840
Speaker 13: a thirty seven percent chance.

1352
01:01:27,000 --> 01:01:29,040
Speaker 1: So we'll look like a pretty clear.

1353
01:01:28,840 --> 01:01:32,400
Speaker 13: Demo likely Democratic winning the House come next year has

1354
01:01:32,440 --> 01:01:34,920
Speaker 13: become much closer to toss up at this point, although

1355
01:01:34,960 --> 01:01:36,600
Speaker 13: still slightly leading Democratic.

1356
01:01:37,080 --> 01:01:40,760
Speaker 12: Harry Enton never clarifies how these quote unquote odds are

1357
01:01:40,880 --> 01:01:44,840
Speaker 12: formed for what they really are. To a viewer who

1358
01:01:45,000 --> 01:01:47,400
Speaker 12: just tuned in or maybe isn't paying that much attention,

1359
01:01:48,000 --> 01:01:52,320
Speaker 12: it would be very unclear that these numbers are actually

1360
01:01:52,360 --> 01:01:57,560
Speaker 12: from a gambling website. They're just big percentages displayed on

1361
01:01:57,720 --> 01:02:02,040
Speaker 12: screen the way you would see pull data or legitimate

1362
01:02:02,120 --> 01:02:06,880
Speaker 12: information used in a newsroom. This short section using the

1363
01:02:06,960 --> 01:02:10,480
Speaker 12: Calshi prediction market odds was then followed by three minutes

1364
01:02:10,520 --> 01:02:15,440
Speaker 12: of analysis using selective mid term voting data from twenty

1365
01:02:15,480 --> 01:02:19,000
Speaker 12: seventeen to twenty eighteen to support the movement in these

1366
01:02:19,080 --> 01:02:22,440
Speaker 12: gambling odds. The gambling ods themselves were a load bearing

1367
01:02:22,560 --> 01:02:28,040
Speaker 12: piece of information in this piece. Calshi's main competitor, another

1368
01:02:28,240 --> 01:02:32,960
Speaker 12: so called prediction market called poly Market, partnered with x

1369
01:02:33,000 --> 01:02:36,040
Speaker 12: the Everything app and Yahoo Finance earlier this year to

1370
01:02:36,120 --> 01:02:42,240
Speaker 12: integrate their prediction data into online news content. Time Magazine

1371
01:02:42,320 --> 01:02:46,520
Speaker 12: and Sports Illustrated have also both launched deals with the

1372
01:02:46,520 --> 01:02:52,440
Speaker 12: prediction market platform Galactic. So what exactly are these prediction

1373
01:02:52,680 --> 01:02:56,240
Speaker 12: markets and how do they function? On poly Market and Calshi,

1374
01:02:56,760 --> 01:02:59,440
Speaker 12: users can bet yes or no on the outcome of

1375
01:02:59,440 --> 01:03:03,040
Speaker 12: a question relating to world events, which is called a market.

1376
01:03:03,680 --> 01:03:06,920
Speaker 12: As more money is wagered on either side, the odds

1377
01:03:07,040 --> 01:03:12,280
Speaker 12: of the outcome change. Currently, top questions include various predictions

1378
01:03:12,320 --> 01:03:15,360
Speaker 12: for Time Person of the Year, will the US strike

1379
01:03:15,480 --> 01:03:17,680
Speaker 12: Venezuela before the end of the year, the release of

1380
01:03:17,680 --> 01:03:20,560
Speaker 12: the Epstein files, and who will be the next president.

1381
01:03:21,120 --> 01:03:26,080
Speaker 12: Calshi has Trump's chances at six percent. Here's Polymarket CEO

1382
01:03:26,360 --> 01:03:29,360
Speaker 12: Shane Copelan explaining on sixty minutes.

1383
01:03:29,680 --> 01:03:31,600
Speaker 11: You make money if you're right, you lose money if

1384
01:03:31,600 --> 01:03:34,120
Speaker 11: you're wrong, and as a result, it creates this information

1385
01:03:34,480 --> 01:03:35,600
Speaker 11: that's reallyseful for people.

1386
01:03:36,360 --> 01:03:39,440
Speaker 12: These companies would like you to believe that the ratio

1387
01:03:39,440 --> 01:03:42,280
Speaker 12: of people betting yes or no on a certain outcome

1388
01:03:42,360 --> 01:03:48,000
Speaker 12: of world events is somehow useful or reliable information for

1389
01:03:48,080 --> 01:03:52,560
Speaker 12: the general public to forecast the future, whether that's through

1390
01:03:52,880 --> 01:03:56,479
Speaker 12: betting on the likelihood of an upcoming recession, the winner

1391
01:03:56,520 --> 01:03:59,600
Speaker 12: of a sports game, which days of the week Israel

1392
01:03:59,640 --> 01:04:03,240
Speaker 12: will be Gaza, or what movie will win Best Picture.

1393
01:04:03,880 --> 01:04:07,080
Speaker 12: Almost fifty million dollars is currently being wagered over a

1394
01:04:07,120 --> 01:04:12,640
Speaker 12: potential Russia Ukraine ceasefire in twenty twenty five. Production markets

1395
01:04:12,720 --> 01:04:18,480
Speaker 12: currently have three billion dollars in weekly trading volume. I

1396
01:04:18,480 --> 01:04:22,320
Speaker 12: do need to note these companies argue that hedging outcomes

1397
01:04:22,320 --> 01:04:26,760
Speaker 12: of world events legally is not gambling, because that would

1398
01:04:26,800 --> 01:04:31,640
Speaker 12: be illegal. Payments through unauthorized gambling sites are illegal under

1399
01:04:31,640 --> 01:04:34,680
Speaker 12: the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of two thousand and six,

1400
01:04:34,920 --> 01:04:38,959
Speaker 12: which suppressed the early prediction markets of the two thousands

1401
01:04:39,320 --> 01:04:43,240
Speaker 12: but Kalshi is regulated as a platform for trading financial

1402
01:04:43,280 --> 01:04:47,680
Speaker 12: derivatives rather than securities trading or straight up legalized gambling,

1403
01:04:48,240 --> 01:04:51,360
Speaker 12: and this determines what entity they have to register with

1404
01:04:51,520 --> 01:04:55,600
Speaker 12: and what regulations they're subject to. Calshi launched in twenty

1405
01:04:55,640 --> 01:04:59,040
Speaker 12: twenty one with a federal license from the Commodity Futures

1406
01:04:59,080 --> 01:05:03,800
Speaker 12: Trading Commission, and after a year's long battle, in October

1407
01:05:03,800 --> 01:05:06,760
Speaker 12: twenty twenty four, a federal appeals court ruled in favor

1408
01:05:06,800 --> 01:05:11,760
Speaker 12: of Calshi, allowing online prediction market betting on US elections,

1409
01:05:12,360 --> 01:05:16,120
Speaker 12: rejecting claims by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that the

1410
01:05:16,160 --> 01:05:20,440
Speaker 12: practice was illegal gambling and their concerns that prediction market

1411
01:05:20,440 --> 01:05:26,920
Speaker 12: betting could undermine election integrity. Former CFDC chairman Rostam Benham

1412
01:05:27,040 --> 01:05:30,560
Speaker 12: misstatement in May of twenty twenty four, reading quote contracts

1413
01:05:30,640 --> 01:05:35,040
Speaker 12: involving political events ultimately commoditize and degrade the integrity of

1414
01:05:35,120 --> 01:05:40,400
Speaker 12: the uniquely American experience participating in the democratic electoral process.

1415
01:05:40,440 --> 01:05:44,800
Speaker 12: Allowing these contracts would push the CFTC, a financial market regulator,

1416
01:05:45,040 --> 01:05:49,800
Speaker 12: into a position far beyond its congressional mandate and expertise.

1417
01:05:52,000 --> 01:05:55,120
Speaker 12: A week before his dad took office in January twenty

1418
01:05:55,160 --> 01:06:00,720
Speaker 12: twenty five, Donald Trump Junior became a strategic advisor at Calshi.

1419
01:06:01,880 --> 01:06:06,280
Speaker 12: Polymarket launched in twenty twenty without registering with the Commodity

1420
01:06:06,320 --> 01:06:10,040
Speaker 12: Futures Trading Commission, and was fined one point four million

1421
01:06:10,080 --> 01:06:13,320
Speaker 12: dollars by the CFTC in twenty twenty two for operating

1422
01:06:13,400 --> 01:06:17,640
Speaker 12: as an unregulated exchange and was henceforth prohibited from allowing

1423
01:06:17,680 --> 01:06:22,360
Speaker 12: bets from US based users, though the poly Market CEO

1424
01:06:22,520 --> 01:06:23,800
Speaker 12: sees it a little different.

1425
01:06:24,400 --> 01:06:26,040
Speaker 14: It was at one point four million dollar fine and

1426
01:06:26,040 --> 01:06:28,919
Speaker 14: also U was a settlement and you could not have

1427
01:06:29,040 --> 01:06:30,400
Speaker 14: customers in the United States.

1428
01:06:30,440 --> 01:06:32,240
Speaker 11: Yeah, we had to go in jeoblock trading in the

1429
01:06:32,320 --> 01:06:35,720
Speaker 11: US and move certain operations offshore. And it wasn't hey,

1430
01:06:35,720 --> 01:06:38,240
Speaker 11: you're banned from trading the US. It's like until you're licensed.

1431
01:06:38,280 --> 01:06:39,320
Speaker 4: I mean it was breaking the law.

1432
01:06:39,560 --> 01:06:41,520
Speaker 2: I mean people say breaking the law. It's like which

1433
01:06:41,600 --> 01:06:44,040
Speaker 2: law you know? So if anything it's.

1434
01:06:43,920 --> 01:06:46,080
Speaker 4: Incompatible, it's incompatible with the law.

1435
01:06:46,480 --> 01:06:48,960
Speaker 2: Yet, with the regulatory matrix that existed.

1436
01:06:49,240 --> 01:06:52,920
Speaker 12: The past two years, Polymarket has found to be facilitating

1437
01:06:53,080 --> 01:06:58,320
Speaker 12: illegal gambling and subsequently banned in the countries of Switzerland, France,

1438
01:06:58,520 --> 01:07:04,360
Speaker 12: the UK, Poland, Upore, Belgium, Romania and Australia. Most of

1439
01:07:04,400 --> 01:07:09,160
Speaker 12: these bans just require geoblocking users, which can be easily

1440
01:07:09,200 --> 01:07:12,640
Speaker 12: circumvented through the use of a VPN, and since the

1441
01:07:12,640 --> 01:07:16,760
Speaker 12: financial transactions on poly market are all done through cryptocurrency,

1442
01:07:17,320 --> 01:07:20,440
Speaker 12: it's not clear that polymarket is taking any steps to

1443
01:07:21,080 --> 01:07:25,320
Speaker 12: enforce these bans beyond geo blocking. In the midst of

1444
01:07:25,360 --> 01:07:29,640
Speaker 12: facing regulatory hurdles and bands from across the globe, Polymarket

1445
01:07:29,800 --> 01:07:34,439
Speaker 12: still exploded in popularity last year, attracting investment from Peter

1446
01:07:34,520 --> 01:07:38,640
Speaker 12: Thiel's venture capital firm and hundreds of thousands of new users,

1447
01:07:39,200 --> 01:07:44,360
Speaker 12: primarily driven by betting on the US presidential election, speculation

1448
01:07:44,440 --> 01:07:46,600
Speaker 12: on whether Biden would drop out of the race and

1449
01:07:46,680 --> 01:07:50,280
Speaker 12: who Trump would pick as vice president, all despite the

1450
01:07:50,320 --> 01:07:54,760
Speaker 12: platform technically being banned in the United States after the

1451
01:07:54,800 --> 01:07:57,880
Speaker 12: first presidential debate in July twenty twenty four, around the

1452
01:07:57,960 --> 01:08:02,280
Speaker 12: attempted assassination of Trump and the RNCA, Polymarket gained sixty

1453
01:08:02,400 --> 01:08:07,240
Speaker 12: thousand new accounts. The year prior, polymarket averaged two thousand,

1454
01:08:07,480 --> 01:08:11,360
Speaker 12: three hundred new accounts per month. August twenty twenty four

1455
01:08:11,480 --> 01:08:17,080
Speaker 12: saw seventy thousand new accounts September ninety thousand, October three

1456
01:08:17,160 --> 01:08:23,959
Speaker 12: hundred thousand, the month after Trump's second inauguration four hundred thousand. Currently,

1457
01:08:24,240 --> 01:08:29,000
Speaker 12: polymarket has over sixty thousand daily active traders and hundreds

1458
01:08:29,000 --> 01:08:32,240
Speaker 12: of thousands of monthly traders since October twenty twenty four.

1459
01:08:33,080 --> 01:08:36,519
Speaker 12: To give another example of their recent growth, in April

1460
01:08:36,560 --> 01:08:41,840
Speaker 12: twenty twenty three, Polymarket's monthly volume was about three million dollars.

1461
01:08:42,320 --> 01:08:47,280
Speaker 12: A year later, it was thirty nine million. In November

1462
01:08:47,360 --> 01:08:52,360
Speaker 12: twenty twenty four, it was two point five billion. Last month,

1463
01:08:52,520 --> 01:09:07,759
Speaker 12: it was three point seven billion. In summer twenty twenty five,

1464
01:09:08,400 --> 01:09:14,320
Speaker 12: cash Ptel's, FBI and a CFTC under Trump dropped investigations

1465
01:09:14,479 --> 01:09:18,840
Speaker 12: into whether polymarket was illegally allowing US users to place

1466
01:09:18,880 --> 01:09:24,839
Speaker 12: bets using VPNs. Shortly thereafter, Donald Trump Junior's venture capital

1467
01:09:24,920 --> 01:09:28,920
Speaker 12: firm invested in the platform, and Trump Junior himself joined

1468
01:09:29,000 --> 01:09:34,280
Speaker 12: Polymarket's advisory board. Curiously, a few days after Trump Junior

1469
01:09:34,400 --> 01:09:38,439
Speaker 12: joined Polymarket, the Commodity Futures Training Commission announced it was

1470
01:09:38,479 --> 01:09:41,599
Speaker 12: going to allow polymarket to operate in the United States

1471
01:09:42,000 --> 01:09:46,640
Speaker 12: after acquiring another company that held a US license. This

1472
01:09:46,720 --> 01:09:51,560
Speaker 12: past October, Trump's own Truth Social announced it was partnering

1473
01:09:51,600 --> 01:09:56,439
Speaker 12: with Crypto dot com to launch truth Predict quote, a

1474
01:09:56,479 --> 01:10:01,840
Speaker 12: revolutionary prediction market backed by President tru for enhanced decision

1475
01:10:01,880 --> 01:10:07,200
Speaker 12: making unquote. When Barry Weiss's sixty Minutes did a puff

1476
01:10:07,240 --> 01:10:11,280
Speaker 12: piece on poly Market with its CEO last week, Anderson

1477
01:10:11,360 --> 01:10:16,599
Speaker 12: Cooper inquired about the risk of insider trading, poly Markets

1478
01:10:16,680 --> 01:10:20,240
Speaker 12: CEO Shane Kaplan seemed to think that a little bit

1479
01:10:20,240 --> 01:10:23,720
Speaker 12: of insider trading might be good actually.

1480
01:10:23,800 --> 01:10:29,280
Speaker 14: But predicted markets do rely on someone having some inside information.

1481
01:10:29,800 --> 01:10:33,599
Speaker 11: Yeah, I think that people going and having an edge

1482
01:10:33,880 --> 01:10:36,519
Speaker 11: to the market is a good thing. Obviously, you need

1483
01:10:36,560 --> 01:10:38,639
Speaker 11: to curate them, and you need to be really clear

1484
01:10:38,680 --> 01:10:40,519
Speaker 11: and stringent on where the line is drawn in like

1485
01:10:40,640 --> 01:10:42,639
Speaker 11: sort of ethics, and we spend a lot of time

1486
01:10:42,640 --> 01:10:44,640
Speaker 11: on that. But it's sort of an inevitability that this

1487
01:10:44,680 --> 01:10:46,439
Speaker 11: will happen and there's a lot of benefits from it

1488
01:10:46,479 --> 01:10:47,839
Speaker 11: and people will adapt.

1489
01:10:48,720 --> 01:10:53,160
Speaker 12: The CEO did not elaborate on what poly markets practice

1490
01:10:53,200 --> 01:10:57,240
Speaker 12: of curating insider trading looks like and where their quote

1491
01:10:57,320 --> 01:11:02,160
Speaker 12: unquote stringent line is drawn, because in reality it doesn't

1492
01:11:02,200 --> 01:11:07,080
Speaker 12: seem this line exists. They essentially encourage insider trading through

1493
01:11:07,120 --> 01:11:11,479
Speaker 12: these vague statements and lack of clear enforcement. From the

1494
01:11:11,479 --> 01:11:14,680
Speaker 12: point of view of these platforms, insider trading makes their

1495
01:11:14,720 --> 01:11:19,280
Speaker 12: prediction markets more accurate, so it's a net positive, and

1496
01:11:19,360 --> 01:11:21,880
Speaker 12: if it fucks over some users on the other side

1497
01:11:21,880 --> 01:11:25,240
Speaker 12: of a bet, that's just the cost of business. Last week,

1498
01:11:25,280 --> 01:11:28,880
Speaker 12: an alleged insider trader won over a million dollars for

1499
01:11:28,960 --> 01:11:33,000
Speaker 12: bets on Google's twenty twenty five year in search rankings,

1500
01:11:33,479 --> 01:11:37,400
Speaker 12: listing twenty two out of twenty three in the correct order.

1501
01:11:37,840 --> 01:11:40,240
Speaker 12: This user has made a series of early bets related

1502
01:11:40,240 --> 01:11:43,639
Speaker 12: to Google the past year, like the exact release date

1503
01:11:43,800 --> 01:11:47,519
Speaker 12: of Google's Gemini three point zero, which they won one

1504
01:11:47,640 --> 01:11:53,000
Speaker 12: hundred and fifty thousand dollars on. But because this polymarket

1505
01:11:53,120 --> 01:11:58,760
Speaker 12: user isn't trading stock, there's no clear regulatory mechanism to

1506
01:11:58,840 --> 01:12:02,599
Speaker 12: stop this behavior, and poly market can't reverse these trades

1507
01:12:02,720 --> 01:12:04,960
Speaker 12: because they run through the blockchain, not that they would

1508
01:12:05,160 --> 01:12:10,040
Speaker 12: even necessarily want to. Professional gambler, political data analyst and

1509
01:12:10,240 --> 01:12:14,280
Speaker 12: poly Market advisor Nate Silver was also asked about insider

1510
01:12:14,320 --> 01:12:18,360
Speaker 12: trading on the China Talk podcast two months ago.

1511
01:12:18,680 --> 01:12:21,200
Speaker 2: Are you worried about insider trading with this.

1512
01:12:22,680 --> 01:12:25,000
Speaker 15: With all this political betting, I mean there's an aspect

1513
01:12:25,040 --> 01:12:28,479
Speaker 15: of like, look, these are all crypto, uh, you know,

1514
01:12:28,520 --> 01:12:32,519
Speaker 15: you get on these markets with crypto and like like

1515
01:12:32,600 --> 01:12:35,360
Speaker 15: there were markets like which way is Suzanne Collins going

1516
01:12:35,400 --> 01:12:38,479
Speaker 15: to vote? And you know the sort of the like

1517
01:12:39,040 --> 01:12:42,840
Speaker 15: you know, like the tail outcomes for like a legislative

1518
01:12:42,840 --> 01:12:46,240
Speaker 15: assistant in her office? Are you know you can make

1519
01:12:46,240 --> 01:12:50,120
Speaker 15: ten times your salary? And like a minute, right, what's

1520
01:12:50,160 --> 01:12:51,360
Speaker 15: your what's your think think on this?

1521
01:12:53,000 --> 01:12:54,160
Speaker 4: For sure?

1522
01:12:54,320 --> 01:12:55,840
Speaker 16: I mean, look, I think there are a couple of

1523
01:12:55,920 --> 01:12:59,400
Speaker 16: qualifications though, Like, first of all, I think people on

1524
01:12:59,439 --> 01:13:01,840
Speaker 16: the inside often aren't as well as some formed as

1525
01:13:01,840 --> 01:13:04,719
Speaker 16: they think, and or there are.

1526
01:13:04,640 --> 01:13:07,040
Speaker 2: Some downsides having an inside view and not an outside

1527
01:13:07,040 --> 01:13:07,240
Speaker 2: of you.

1528
01:13:07,240 --> 01:13:09,640
Speaker 16: You might drink the kool aid, so to speak, right,

1529
01:13:09,720 --> 01:13:10,960
Speaker 16: you might be in a bubble.

1530
01:13:12,680 --> 01:13:14,800
Speaker 15: Yeah, look, I mean, I mean there are ones where

1531
01:13:14,880 --> 01:13:17,920
Speaker 15: it's like you can literally I mean there's been a

1532
01:13:17,960 --> 01:13:20,479
Speaker 15: lots of group chats people talking about like very very

1533
01:13:20,479 --> 01:13:23,439
Speaker 15: sketchy trades, uh and one way bets that are being

1534
01:13:23,479 --> 01:13:25,120
Speaker 15: made in the stock market of like what's going to

1535
01:13:25,200 --> 01:13:27,320
Speaker 15: happen with a trade deal? I mean you can literally

1536
01:13:27,360 --> 01:13:30,479
Speaker 15: be the person who decides right and be vetting on

1537
01:13:30,520 --> 01:13:32,519
Speaker 15: the side if they're weird.

1538
01:13:33,080 --> 01:13:36,679
Speaker 16: If there are incentives to make money in a world

1539
01:13:36,760 --> 01:13:39,080
Speaker 16: of eight million people, many of them are very competitive,

1540
01:13:39,080 --> 01:13:40,479
Speaker 16: in all of whom and not all of them, most

1541
01:13:40,479 --> 01:13:42,080
Speaker 16: of them access to the Internet. Right, people are gonna

1542
01:13:42,080 --> 01:13:43,800
Speaker 16: find a way a way to do it.

1543
01:13:43,920 --> 01:13:47,640
Speaker 12: Right, let's pause here for a sec. What do you

1544
01:13:47,800 --> 01:13:51,880
Speaker 12: think Nick goes on to list as a comparison to

1545
01:13:52,000 --> 01:13:57,000
Speaker 12: political insider trading as like an unfortunate but somewhat inevitable

1546
01:13:57,080 --> 01:14:01,240
Speaker 12: consequence of our evolving system of fire, as like.

1547
01:14:01,160 --> 01:14:03,000
Speaker 16: In the crypto space, we've seen like an increasing number

1548
01:14:03,040 --> 01:14:07,720
Speaker 16: of like crypto kidnappings. Right, Well, I mean that's one

1549
01:14:07,720 --> 01:14:10,400
Speaker 16: of the consequences if people are worth vast amounts of

1550
01:14:10,479 --> 01:14:13,559
Speaker 16: wealth that isn't very secure. It's just it's just gonna

1551
01:14:13,880 --> 01:14:16,439
Speaker 16: gonna happen until you up security or have better solutions

1552
01:14:16,520 --> 01:14:17,280
Speaker 16: or whatever else.

1553
01:14:17,320 --> 01:14:19,200
Speaker 4: And so like, you know, I don't think there's.

1554
01:14:19,040 --> 01:14:23,160
Speaker 16: Necessarily anymore or less insider creating on like polymarket than there.

1555
01:14:23,080 --> 01:14:25,439
Speaker 4: Might be for in sports betting sides.

1556
01:14:25,479 --> 01:14:27,160
Speaker 16: We've seen a lot of sports betting scandals or for

1557
01:14:27,280 --> 01:14:32,599
Speaker 16: regular equities. You know, I believe the literature says that

1558
01:14:32,680 --> 01:14:38,000
Speaker 16: like members of Congress achieve abnormal returns from their stock portfolios.

1559
01:14:38,000 --> 01:14:39,519
Speaker 4: I'd have to do. I'm sure there's some debate about that.

1560
01:14:39,560 --> 01:14:41,040
Speaker 4: I have to like to double check that.

1561
01:14:41,240 --> 01:14:41,400
Speaker 17: Right.

1562
01:14:41,960 --> 01:14:45,679
Speaker 12: It's fine, bros. It's just like cryptocurrency kidnapping. It's fine.

1563
01:14:45,760 --> 01:14:46,240
Speaker 4: Actually.

1564
01:14:47,240 --> 01:14:50,679
Speaker 12: So Naate goes on to say that prediction market insider

1565
01:14:50,720 --> 01:14:56,240
Speaker 12: trading isn't that different from congressmen doing insider trading on

1566
01:14:56,280 --> 01:15:00,400
Speaker 12: the stock market, or like rigged sports betting, but he

1567
01:15:00,720 --> 01:15:05,040
Speaker 12: really neglects to emphasize that those things are also bad

1568
01:15:05,160 --> 01:15:09,240
Speaker 12: and should be aggressively clamped down on. That shouldn't be allowed,

1569
01:15:10,280 --> 01:15:15,479
Speaker 12: and prediction markets intentionally skirt regulation. They currently have far

1570
01:15:15,560 --> 01:15:19,519
Speaker 12: less legal protections for users against unfair practices, and with

1571
01:15:19,640 --> 01:15:24,040
Speaker 12: crypto they can be pretty anonymized, enabling bad actors. And

1572
01:15:24,120 --> 01:15:28,599
Speaker 12: now news companies are legitimizing turning everyone's phone into a

1573
01:15:28,680 --> 01:15:33,760
Speaker 12: corrupt casino for world events, whether that's Israel starving Palestine

1574
01:15:34,120 --> 01:15:37,200
Speaker 12: or how many tweets Elon Musk is going to publish

1575
01:15:37,240 --> 01:15:41,919
Speaker 12: this week. The day before CAWSHI announced their partnership agreement

1576
01:15:42,040 --> 01:15:46,840
Speaker 12: with CNN and NCNBC, CBS aired a sixty minutes puff

1577
01:15:46,880 --> 01:15:50,280
Speaker 12: piece on polymarket, anchored by Anderson Cooper.

1578
01:15:50,960 --> 01:15:52,080
Speaker 4: When we met with Copeland.

1579
01:15:52,160 --> 01:15:55,120
Speaker 14: Last month, more than three point six million dollars had

1580
01:15:55,160 --> 01:15:58,559
Speaker 14: been wagered on whether or not Venezuela's president, Nicholas Muduro

1581
01:15:58,920 --> 01:15:59,719
Speaker 14: would be out.

1582
01:15:59,520 --> 01:16:01,040
Speaker 18: Of power by the end of the year.

1583
01:16:01,720 --> 01:16:05,080
Speaker 14: Polymarket users didn't think, so they gave it only a

1584
01:16:05,120 --> 01:16:08,840
Speaker 14: twenty three percent chance. And if you buy no on that,

1585
01:16:09,320 --> 01:16:12,720
Speaker 14: and you're buying it at seventy eight cents and at

1586
01:16:12,760 --> 01:16:15,000
Speaker 14: the end of the year he's still in power, yeah,

1587
01:16:15,120 --> 01:16:17,120
Speaker 14: you get a dollar per share, so you've made a

1588
01:16:17,120 --> 01:16:19,800
Speaker 14: profit of twenty two to share. I can see why

1589
01:16:19,800 --> 01:16:22,200
Speaker 14: this would be I mean, I don't want to use

1590
01:16:22,200 --> 01:16:24,720
Speaker 14: a term addictive, but it would be compelling.

1591
01:16:25,000 --> 01:16:26,880
Speaker 4: I mean maybe it is a tick fire. No, well,

1592
01:16:27,000 --> 01:16:27,719
Speaker 4: certainly compelling.

1593
01:16:27,800 --> 01:16:28,559
Speaker 1: This is how I see it.

1594
01:16:28,840 --> 01:16:32,640
Speaker 11: If you are into geopolitics, this creates an incentive for

1595
01:16:32,720 --> 01:16:35,240
Speaker 11: you to dig in to what's going on in Venezuela

1596
01:16:35,400 --> 01:16:36,559
Speaker 11: and try and get an edge.

1597
01:16:37,120 --> 01:16:41,280
Speaker 12: Anderson Cooper, who both works for the newly Calshi partnered

1598
01:16:41,400 --> 01:16:46,480
Speaker 12: CNN as well as CBS's Sixty Minutes, is so hesitant

1599
01:16:47,000 --> 01:16:52,920
Speaker 12: to call this clearly addictive practice addictive, quote unquote compelling.

1600
01:16:53,640 --> 01:16:58,360
Speaker 12: Here's how Polymarket CEO Shane Copelan explained the platform earlier

1601
01:16:58,479 --> 01:16:59,240
Speaker 12: in this piece.

1602
01:17:00,080 --> 01:17:04,240
Speaker 11: It's a site where you can basically bet on current events,

1603
01:17:04,600 --> 01:17:06,880
Speaker 11: some sort of question about the future, like an election,

1604
01:17:07,560 --> 01:17:09,719
Speaker 11: and as a result, when a ton of people are betting,

1605
01:17:10,080 --> 01:17:13,240
Speaker 11: you get the betting odds, which basically tell you how

1606
01:17:13,439 --> 01:17:14,960
Speaker 11: likely each outcome is.

1607
01:17:14,920 --> 01:17:16,400
Speaker 14: And how accurate is it.

1608
01:17:16,400 --> 01:17:16,960
Speaker 2: It's the most.

1609
01:17:16,800 --> 01:17:20,000
Speaker 11: Accurate thing we have as mankind right now, until someone

1610
01:17:20,000 --> 01:17:22,679
Speaker 11: else creates some sort of super crystal ball.

1611
01:17:23,360 --> 01:17:28,000
Speaker 12: Anderson Cooper responds with narration that the CEO quote may

1612
01:17:28,040 --> 01:17:33,320
Speaker 12: be prone to hyperbole, but he's definitely onto something unquote.

1613
01:17:33,920 --> 01:17:37,920
Speaker 12: In explaining how polymarket users attempt to seek truth and

1614
01:17:38,160 --> 01:17:40,880
Speaker 12: gain an edge, Copeland told the story of how in

1615
01:17:40,960 --> 01:17:44,880
Speaker 12: twenty twenty four, an anonymous French user made over eighty

1616
01:17:45,000 --> 01:17:48,519
Speaker 12: million dollars on Polymarket by betting on Trump winning the

1617
01:17:48,560 --> 01:17:52,519
Speaker 12: presidential election, and to bolster his bets, he contracted you

1618
01:17:52,640 --> 01:17:55,400
Speaker 12: gov to conduct private polls in swing states.

1619
01:17:55,640 --> 01:17:57,920
Speaker 11: People thought he'd just liked Trump, and he had actually

1620
01:17:57,960 --> 01:18:01,479
Speaker 11: commissioned a ton of private polls something called neighbor polling,

1621
01:18:01,680 --> 01:18:04,560
Speaker 11: which is you ask people who they think their neighbors.

1622
01:18:04,120 --> 01:18:05,480
Speaker 2: Are likely to vote for.

1623
01:18:05,479 --> 01:18:08,600
Speaker 11: For scenarios for an election where there's a stigma to

1624
01:18:08,600 --> 01:18:10,599
Speaker 11: saying you're going to vote for somebody, and people feel

1625
01:18:10,600 --> 01:18:12,840
Speaker 11: some sort of social awkwardness. And what he noticed was

1626
01:18:12,880 --> 01:18:15,640
Speaker 11: there was huge discrepancy in the neighbor polling versus the

1627
01:18:15,680 --> 01:18:19,320
Speaker 11: normal polling, and the neighbor polling favored Trump enormously.

1628
01:18:19,400 --> 01:18:20,640
Speaker 2: He thought Trump was undervalued.

1629
01:18:21,240 --> 01:18:23,320
Speaker 11: If this guy was not able to make eighty million,

1630
01:18:23,360 --> 01:18:25,439
Speaker 11: but rather able to make eighty thousand dollars, he would

1631
01:18:25,439 --> 01:18:28,280
Speaker 11: have never gone through the hassle. But when you get

1632
01:18:28,320 --> 01:18:30,720
Speaker 11: markets that are big enough, you create this incentive for

1633
01:18:30,800 --> 01:18:33,160
Speaker 11: people to go above and beyond to try and find truth.

1634
01:18:33,920 --> 01:18:36,960
Speaker 12: What the CEO is arguing here is that the sheer

1635
01:18:37,080 --> 01:18:41,400
Speaker 12: scale of money being wagered creates incentive to quote unquote

1636
01:18:41,600 --> 01:18:46,320
Speaker 12: find truths. In media discussions of prediction markets, there's this

1637
01:18:46,520 --> 01:18:51,760
Speaker 12: specter of objectivity around the gambled odds, which obviously the

1638
01:18:51,800 --> 01:18:55,040
Speaker 12: CEO of poly Market has a personal incentive to encourage.

1639
01:18:55,439 --> 01:19:01,160
Speaker 12: But Anderson Cooper here doesn't challenge this notion of t truth.

1640
01:19:01,800 --> 01:19:05,920
Speaker 12: Even though Donald Trump was way ahead in prediction market

1641
01:19:05,920 --> 01:19:09,840
Speaker 12: odds back during the twenty twenty election, which had his

1642
01:19:10,040 --> 01:19:13,479
Speaker 12: chances of winning that election far higher than what pure

1643
01:19:13,560 --> 01:19:18,040
Speaker 12: polling models showed. Calshi claims that prediction markets can help

1644
01:19:18,080 --> 01:19:23,479
Speaker 12: journalists quote unquote fact check, but doesn't explain how fact

1645
01:19:23,840 --> 01:19:28,360
Speaker 12: can be determined from speculative gambling markets. Where is the

1646
01:19:28,520 --> 01:19:33,120
Speaker 12: fact in gambling? Well, we will find out after these

1647
01:19:33,200 --> 01:19:49,280
Speaker 12: ads to quote from polymarket advisor Nate Silver's blog The

1648
01:19:49,320 --> 01:19:53,200
Speaker 12: Silver Bulletin quote, It's basically good when people are more

1649
01:19:53,240 --> 01:19:57,600
Speaker 12: exposed to probabilities and they become more normalized. But of

1650
01:19:57,640 --> 01:20:02,200
Speaker 12: course I also analyze polls and build probabilistic models myself.

1651
01:20:02,760 --> 01:20:06,599
Speaker 12: In that capacity, I strongly disagree with the notion that

1652
01:20:06,680 --> 01:20:10,360
Speaker 12: prediction markets can serve as a good substitute for polls.

1653
01:20:10,840 --> 01:20:13,719
Speaker 12: These sorts of claims are sometimes advanced by the prediction

1654
01:20:13,880 --> 01:20:18,880
Speaker 12: market companies themselves, including Polymarket. To be fair, one minor

1655
01:20:18,960 --> 01:20:23,640
Speaker 12: pet peeve is that both reporters and readers often confuse

1656
01:20:24,000 --> 01:20:29,439
Speaker 12: probabilities for poll results. Quote, as Nate goes on to explain,

1657
01:20:29,960 --> 01:20:32,840
Speaker 12: if Trump is up fifty five to forty five over

1658
01:20:32,920 --> 01:20:37,120
Speaker 12: Kamala Harris on a prediction market, that's not saying that

1659
01:20:37,160 --> 01:20:41,200
Speaker 12: Trump is expected to win by ten points. It means

1660
01:20:41,240 --> 01:20:45,559
Speaker 12: that ten percent more users on the website favor Trump winning,

1661
01:20:45,920 --> 01:20:49,560
Speaker 12: which is pretty close to a toss up. This confusion

1662
01:20:49,680 --> 01:20:53,080
Speaker 12: is a huge problem which is bolstered in both how

1663
01:20:53,120 --> 01:20:57,720
Speaker 12: prediction market companies market their platform, but also how journalists

1664
01:20:57,880 --> 01:21:01,360
Speaker 12: use gambling data in news store. If you see a

1665
01:21:01,520 --> 01:21:05,120
Speaker 12: social media post, an advertisement, or a random news segment

1666
01:21:05,240 --> 01:21:09,800
Speaker 12: showing percentages tied to pictures of two politicians in a

1667
01:21:09,920 --> 01:21:13,040
Speaker 12: race without context, those betting numbers could be interpreted in

1668
01:21:13,080 --> 01:21:16,880
Speaker 12: a number of ways and influenced someone's perception of an

1669
01:21:16,880 --> 01:21:20,280
Speaker 12: election and maybe even their choice on who to vote for,

1670
01:21:20,720 --> 01:21:24,160
Speaker 12: or even whether to vote at all. In an October speech,

1671
01:21:24,439 --> 01:21:29,439
Speaker 12: Zora Mumdani reference to Calshi billboards predicting a Cuomo victory

1672
01:21:29,520 --> 01:21:30,960
Speaker 12: in the Democratic primary.

1673
01:21:31,600 --> 01:21:34,000
Speaker 19: When I walked the length of Manhattan just a few

1674
01:21:34,080 --> 01:21:39,240
Speaker 19: days before the election, hundreds of New Yorkers marched alongside me.

1675
01:21:42,160 --> 01:21:45,320
Speaker 19: And when we strolled into Times Square under a billboard

1676
01:21:45,320 --> 01:21:48,960
Speaker 19: with betting odds that showed Cuomo's chances of winning at

1677
01:21:49,000 --> 01:21:52,560
Speaker 19: nearly eighty percent, we knew that the so called experts

1678
01:21:52,600 --> 01:21:59,320
Speaker 19: were set to get it wrong yet again. Andrew Cuomo,

1679
01:22:00,000 --> 01:22:04,080
Speaker 19: it was supposed to be inevitable. When you see the

1680
01:22:04,160 --> 01:22:07,360
Speaker 19: Calcy odds that have our chances of victory in the nineties,

1681
01:22:08,520 --> 01:22:12,040
Speaker 19: know this. You are reading the same things that Andrew

1682
01:22:12,120 --> 01:22:15,639
Speaker 19: Cuomo read when he went to sleep each night in June,

1683
01:22:17,040 --> 01:22:22,400
Speaker 19: believing that his victory was promised. We cannot allow complacency

1684
01:22:22,760 --> 01:22:24,400
Speaker 19: to infiltrate this movement.

1685
01:22:26,560 --> 01:22:31,000
Speaker 12: Calci excitedly shared the latter half of that clip, proclaiming

1686
01:22:31,560 --> 01:22:37,400
Speaker 12: breaking zoron Mamdani references his Calci odds on stage, Calshi

1687
01:22:37,600 --> 01:22:43,479
Speaker 12: is mainstream quote despite this clip demonstrating how prediction markets

1688
01:22:43,840 --> 01:22:49,000
Speaker 12: often suffer from inaccurate bias. Last week, Discount Steve Kornaki,

1689
01:22:49,400 --> 01:22:52,360
Speaker 12: former five point thirty eight analyst and now CNN's data expert,

1690
01:22:52,439 --> 01:22:57,400
Speaker 12: Harry Enton shared this segment about the Tennessee District seven

1691
01:22:57,720 --> 01:23:00,840
Speaker 12: special election on X the Everything app with the caption

1692
01:23:01,600 --> 01:23:04,760
Speaker 12: odds are Dems will come within ten points of a win,

1693
01:23:05,200 --> 01:23:06,800
Speaker 12: if not outright win.

1694
01:23:07,360 --> 01:23:08,920
Speaker 20: I would say, if you had to look at the

1695
01:23:08,920 --> 01:23:12,719
Speaker 20: congressional map any district that Donald Trump won by twenty

1696
01:23:12,720 --> 01:23:15,240
Speaker 20: two points, you would say, you know, you've got like

1697
01:23:15,439 --> 01:23:17,760
Speaker 20: nearly a one hundred percent chance of winning if you're

1698
01:23:17,800 --> 01:23:18,760
Speaker 20: running for Congress there.

1699
01:23:18,760 --> 01:23:20,320
Speaker 2: But what are the prediction markets saying right now?

1700
01:23:20,320 --> 01:23:21,920
Speaker 13: You know, what are we talking about in terms of

1701
01:23:21,920 --> 01:23:24,639
Speaker 13: the prediction market us look the Democrat has a fifteen

1702
01:23:24,680 --> 01:23:27,240
Speaker 13: percent chance of winning in that race. Okay, a fifteen

1703
01:23:27,280 --> 01:23:30,000
Speaker 13: percent chance, which ain't nothing in a district that Donald

1704
01:23:30,040 --> 01:23:33,400
Speaker 13: Trump won by twenty two points. But here I think

1705
01:23:33,439 --> 01:23:35,120
Speaker 13: is the key nugget on this side of the of

1706
01:23:35,160 --> 01:23:37,519
Speaker 13: the ledger, and that is a GOP win by under

1707
01:23:37,520 --> 01:23:40,479
Speaker 13: ten points. There's a sixty eight percent chance of that.

1708
01:23:40,840 --> 01:23:43,720
Speaker 13: So there is a more than two thirds chance that

1709
01:23:43,760 --> 01:23:47,680
Speaker 13: the Republican candidate, Yes, they win, but they win by

1710
01:23:47,680 --> 01:23:51,320
Speaker 13: a significantly lower margin than Donald Trump. We're talking about

1711
01:23:51,360 --> 01:23:55,679
Speaker 13: double digits, smaller. We're talking about a huge, huge shift

1712
01:23:55,720 --> 01:23:57,479
Speaker 13: to the left. We're talking about when you add these

1713
01:23:57,520 --> 01:24:00,519
Speaker 13: two together, we're talking about a more than eighty percent

1714
01:24:00,600 --> 01:24:03,640
Speaker 13: chance that there is a clear double digit shift to

1715
01:24:03,680 --> 01:24:06,120
Speaker 13: the left, and a fifteen percent chance the Democrat actually

1716
01:24:06,160 --> 01:24:08,639
Speaker 13: wins in a district that Donald Trump won by twenty

1717
01:24:08,640 --> 01:24:11,799
Speaker 13: two points. That just shows you how bad the environment

1718
01:24:12,000 --> 01:24:14,320
Speaker 13: is for Republicans right now that the Democrat has any

1719
01:24:14,360 --> 01:24:16,080
Speaker 13: sort of a chance in this talk to me about.

1720
01:24:15,800 --> 01:24:20,280
Speaker 12: With special look, he's just authoritatively rattling off complete speculation

1721
01:24:20,560 --> 01:24:25,360
Speaker 12: on a Democrat victory. As big screens display percentages in

1722
01:24:25,560 --> 01:24:30,639
Speaker 12: huge text with source Calshi in tiny text, the bottom

1723
01:24:30,680 --> 01:24:34,599
Speaker 12: of the screen. Ordinary polling showed that this was a

1724
01:24:34,680 --> 01:24:38,240
Speaker 12: close race that leaned Red by two to eight points,

1725
01:24:38,520 --> 01:24:42,160
Speaker 12: and the Republican did end up winning by nine points.

1726
01:24:42,479 --> 01:24:46,840
Speaker 12: To quote the broken clock Nate silver quote. Without having

1727
01:24:46,920 --> 01:24:50,760
Speaker 12: polls to look at, the prediction markets would probably kind

1728
01:24:50,800 --> 01:24:56,280
Speaker 12: of suck at making election forecasts. Translating polls into probabilities

1729
01:24:56,400 --> 01:24:59,960
Speaker 12: is considerably more complicated when there are many correlated races

1730
01:25:00,120 --> 01:25:02,800
Speaker 12: is at once, such as in the battle for the

1731
01:25:02,800 --> 01:25:07,320
Speaker 12: Electoral College or control of Congress. Prediction markets had a

1732
01:25:07,360 --> 01:25:11,160
Speaker 12: strong twenty twenty four in this regard. They leaned toward

1733
01:25:11,240 --> 01:25:13,920
Speaker 12: Trump when our model had it at fifty to fifty.

1734
01:25:14,640 --> 01:25:17,439
Speaker 12: I don't think this was because of any special modeling

1735
01:25:17,560 --> 01:25:21,200
Speaker 12: insight per se, but because they incorporated some sort of

1736
01:25:21,439 --> 01:25:27,559
Speaker 12: prior intuition that Trump would overperform his polls. Again, so

1737
01:25:27,800 --> 01:25:31,519
Speaker 12: give the markets credit for that. These sorts of soft

1738
01:25:31,640 --> 01:25:37,000
Speaker 12: quote unquote intangible intuitions can be valuable, though you'd need

1739
01:25:37,080 --> 01:25:40,120
Speaker 12: a lot of data to determine whether they add or

1740
01:25:40,160 --> 01:25:44,880
Speaker 12: subtract value in the long run unquote. As Nate himself acknowledges,

1741
01:25:45,280 --> 01:25:48,679
Speaker 12: someone like Andrew Cuomo had much higher betting odds throughout

1742
01:25:48,680 --> 01:25:52,560
Speaker 12: the entire New York mayoral race than a purely statistical

1743
01:25:52,680 --> 01:25:56,760
Speaker 12: model would show. A contention I have with Nate. One

1744
01:25:56,800 --> 01:26:02,240
Speaker 12: of many is though I call prediction market numbers gambling odds.

1745
01:26:02,920 --> 01:26:08,680
Speaker 12: They are not actual probabilities. These odds aren't based on

1746
01:26:09,080 --> 01:26:13,879
Speaker 12: objective mathematical principles like flipping a coin, the three door problem,

1747
01:26:14,200 --> 01:26:18,240
Speaker 12: or even something like blackjack. These odds are created whole

1748
01:26:18,360 --> 01:26:23,920
Speaker 12: cloth through guessing, sometimes educated or data informed guessing, but

1749
01:26:24,040 --> 01:26:29,640
Speaker 12: still primarily through people's intuition, which is susceptible to group impulses.

1750
01:26:30,320 --> 01:26:35,160
Speaker 12: Many random world events lack a reliable basis of continuous

1751
01:26:35,280 --> 01:26:38,880
Speaker 12: controlled data that's needed to form a probability, like that

1752
01:26:38,960 --> 01:26:42,200
Speaker 12: which is applied to legalized sports betting. This is quite

1753
01:26:42,240 --> 01:26:45,520
Speaker 12: evident in the betting odds around the Last People Conclave,

1754
01:26:45,840 --> 01:26:50,440
Speaker 12: which had very little relevant data to use for informed predictions.

1755
01:26:50,960 --> 01:26:54,240
Speaker 12: There was no existing probability to support the election of

1756
01:26:54,280 --> 01:26:58,439
Speaker 12: an American pope, a first time occurrence. With prediction markets,

1757
01:26:58,560 --> 01:27:01,679
Speaker 12: people can still do research to make an informed bet,

1758
01:27:02,080 --> 01:27:05,080
Speaker 12: but it's not really the case that X candidate is

1759
01:27:05,160 --> 01:27:08,960
Speaker 12: mathematically expected to win an election. Eighty out of one

1760
01:27:09,040 --> 01:27:13,800
Speaker 12: hundred instances, a hive mind of users have formed that

1761
01:27:13,880 --> 01:27:18,000
Speaker 12: statistical division through the power of money. Eighty percent of

1762
01:27:18,040 --> 01:27:21,799
Speaker 12: users are betting that a certain result is likely to occur.

1763
01:27:22,720 --> 01:27:26,360
Speaker 12: So the problem isn't just that, like Nate says, people

1764
01:27:26,400 --> 01:27:31,840
Speaker 12: are confusing probabilities for polls. It's that they're confusing prediction

1765
01:27:32,000 --> 01:27:37,360
Speaker 12: market betting odds for mathematical probabilities. It's this difference that

1766
01:27:37,439 --> 01:27:41,880
Speaker 12: allows betting on sports outcomes via Calshian polymarket, even in

1767
01:27:42,000 --> 01:27:46,439
Speaker 12: states that ban typical sports betting, because you're not actually

1768
01:27:46,479 --> 01:27:51,720
Speaker 12: betting on fixed odds, you're betting against other investors. And

1769
01:27:51,800 --> 01:27:56,560
Speaker 12: now news companies are not just manufacturing consent and normalizing

1770
01:27:56,640 --> 01:28:01,280
Speaker 12: political gambling, but are actively incur the use of these

1771
01:28:01,320 --> 01:28:06,719
Speaker 12: platforms and endorsing the predictive capacity of these gambling markets.

1772
01:28:07,160 --> 01:28:10,920
Speaker 12: Anderson Cooper calls it the quote unquote wisdom of crowds.

1773
01:28:11,479 --> 01:28:16,240
Speaker 12: But we already have methods for learning group consensus, like polling,

1774
01:28:16,640 --> 01:28:20,519
Speaker 12: which may have problems, but frankly far fewer problems than

1775
01:28:20,720 --> 01:28:25,479
Speaker 12: gambling on world events. Beyond the moral qualms of betting

1776
01:28:25,520 --> 01:28:29,639
Speaker 12: money on human suffering, prediction markets are susceptible to not

1777
01:28:29,840 --> 01:28:33,439
Speaker 12: just personal bias, but group bias. Based on the current

1778
01:28:33,520 --> 01:28:37,000
Speaker 12: ratio of odds. This in group consensus can be influenced

1779
01:28:37,000 --> 01:28:41,160
Speaker 12: by short lived trending topics, and these platforms cater to

1780
01:28:41,240 --> 01:28:46,120
Speaker 12: a hyper online point of view. Prediction market users provide

1781
01:28:46,160 --> 01:28:51,400
Speaker 12: a very non representational sample variety pulling from a very

1782
01:28:51,439 --> 01:28:56,680
Speaker 12: specific type of guy who regularly uses these platforms. To

1783
01:28:56,760 --> 01:29:02,000
Speaker 12: quote from Calshe's CNN partnership announced quote Calshi has become

1784
01:29:02,040 --> 01:29:04,600
Speaker 12: the definitive source for staying informed about the future and

1785
01:29:04,720 --> 01:29:08,479
Speaker 12: is used by reporters, politicians, pundits, Wall Street and Main Street,

1786
01:29:08,760 --> 01:29:11,400
Speaker 12: and recently called the New York City mayoral election eight

1787
01:29:11,479 --> 01:29:15,439
Speaker 12: minutes after polls closed, hours before the media. It's because

1788
01:29:15,479 --> 01:29:18,800
Speaker 12: of this accuracy that Calshi's data will serve as a

1789
01:29:18,920 --> 01:29:22,880
Speaker 12: powerful compliment to c and n's reporting. Journalists can more

1790
01:29:22,920 --> 01:29:26,160
Speaker 12: easily surface credible information to their audiences about the real

1791
01:29:26,200 --> 01:29:32,160
Speaker 12: time probabilities of future cultural and political events unquote. In practice,

1792
01:29:32,240 --> 01:29:37,880
Speaker 12: this reporting mixes gambling data and actually reputable or credible

1793
01:29:37,960 --> 01:29:43,120
Speaker 12: polls in a confusing way, like this recent CNN segment

1794
01:29:43,160 --> 01:29:46,960
Speaker 12: which cites calshi odds on whether Trump will send tariff

1795
01:29:46,960 --> 01:29:51,599
Speaker 12: stimulus checks, as well as CBS you gov polling data

1796
01:29:51,920 --> 01:29:55,160
Speaker 12: on if tears lower prices back to back in this

1797
01:29:55,360 --> 01:29:57,400
Speaker 12: same segment, do.

1798
01:29:57,320 --> 01:29:59,760
Speaker 13: They think that the tariffs that these rebate checks are

1799
01:29:59,760 --> 01:30:03,080
Speaker 13: at actually coming and at this point no, No, I

1800
01:30:03,080 --> 01:30:07,200
Speaker 13: mean chance Trump tariff, the tariff simulus checks are sent

1801
01:30:07,240 --> 01:30:10,560
Speaker 13: to Americans by August of twenty twenty six. It's a

1802
01:30:10,600 --> 01:30:13,400
Speaker 13: twenty five percent chance. That's one in four. So that's

1803
01:30:13,439 --> 01:30:17,840
Speaker 13: not nothing. But the American people right now are craving,

1804
01:30:18,200 --> 01:30:20,840
Speaker 13: craving some relief, and at this point it doesn't look

1805
01:30:20,920 --> 01:30:23,439
Speaker 13: like it is coming. Although I will not John Berman,

1806
01:30:23,600 --> 01:30:26,960
Speaker 13: this twenty five percent, it is greater than this six

1807
01:30:27,040 --> 01:30:30,400
Speaker 13: percent who say that tariffs decreased prices, or that five

1808
01:30:30,400 --> 01:30:33,880
Speaker 13: percent back in March, which are just you never see one, two, three, four,

1809
01:30:34,240 --> 01:30:37,800
Speaker 13: five percent. So look, twenty five percent ain't nothing, but

1810
01:30:38,080 --> 01:30:38,400
Speaker 13: at this.

1811
01:30:38,360 --> 01:30:39,000
Speaker 18: Point it's low.

1812
01:30:39,080 --> 01:30:41,280
Speaker 20: Yeah, it's interesting the prediction markets think they only one

1813
01:30:41,320 --> 01:30:43,080
Speaker 20: in four chance that will actually happen.

1814
01:30:43,080 --> 01:30:47,760
Speaker 12: There is this really what the future of political forecasting

1815
01:30:47,840 --> 01:30:48,360
Speaker 12: is going to be?

1816
01:30:49,640 --> 01:30:50,040
Speaker 4: Maybe?

1817
01:30:50,160 --> 01:30:54,240
Speaker 12: Maybe not, but there are four horsemen of this political

1818
01:30:54,360 --> 01:30:59,920
Speaker 12: gambling apocalypse. Nate Silver via his gamification of election prediction

1819
01:31:00,240 --> 01:31:03,400
Speaker 12: based on his time as a professional gambler sports betting,

1820
01:31:03,840 --> 01:31:06,599
Speaker 12: especially since the Supreme Court struck down a federal law

1821
01:31:06,640 --> 01:31:10,400
Speaker 12: banning sports betting outside of Nevada in twenty eighteen, resulting

1822
01:31:10,479 --> 01:31:14,559
Speaker 12: in almost forty states subsequently legalizing some form of sports betting,

1823
01:31:14,680 --> 01:31:17,800
Speaker 12: which has facilitated the cassibility of gambling to grow dramatically

1824
01:31:17,800 --> 01:31:19,680
Speaker 12: across the country in the past ten years through the

1825
01:31:19,680 --> 01:31:24,639
Speaker 12: spread of online sports betting apps. The third horseman is Trump,

1826
01:31:24,640 --> 01:31:29,120
Speaker 12: for the Trump administration through their removal of regulatory hurdles

1827
01:31:29,360 --> 01:31:34,200
Speaker 12: facing prediction markets. And finally that CNN guy Harry Enton,

1828
01:31:34,720 --> 01:31:38,040
Speaker 12: a Nate Silver protege who trailblazed the use of political

1829
01:31:38,040 --> 01:31:42,799
Speaker 12: gambling data in news stories the past year. These four horsemen,

1830
01:31:43,000 --> 01:31:47,200
Speaker 12: Nate Silver, sports betting, Trump, and Harry Enton have created

1831
01:31:47,240 --> 01:31:51,959
Speaker 12: the cultural and political conditions for political gambling to spread.

1832
01:31:52,120 --> 01:31:56,000
Speaker 12: Like wildfire, which, hey, is also something you can bet on.

1833
01:31:56,600 --> 01:31:59,920
Speaker 12: During the LA Fires prediction market, users could bet on

1834
01:32:00,120 --> 01:32:04,240
Speaker 12: how many acres would burn. So what is the endgame

1835
01:32:04,280 --> 01:32:07,280
Speaker 12: of this, this gambling apocalypse that seems to be inching

1836
01:32:07,280 --> 01:32:11,000
Speaker 12: its way closer and closer to answer that? Here's a

1837
01:32:11,000 --> 01:32:15,000
Speaker 12: clip from Calshi co founder and CEO Trek Manser.

1838
01:32:16,000 --> 01:32:19,120
Speaker 17: The long term vision is to financialize everything and create

1839
01:32:19,120 --> 01:32:21,439
Speaker 17: a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion. We

1840
01:32:21,520 --> 01:32:23,880
Speaker 17: are living in a word where like we have an

1841
01:32:23,880 --> 01:32:25,920
Speaker 17: abundance of information, but there's a lot of noise, and

1842
01:32:26,040 --> 01:32:28,160
Speaker 17: like we don't really understand what's real from what's not.

1843
01:32:28,240 --> 01:32:30,519
Speaker 17: Our prediction markets are an anadote to that. They do

1844
01:32:30,520 --> 01:32:33,960
Speaker 17: a very very good job at distilling information and surfacing

1845
01:32:34,040 --> 01:32:35,920
Speaker 17: truth to people. And you're seeing the sort of massive

1846
01:32:35,920 --> 01:32:38,800
Speaker 17: shift where like people are using them whenever they think

1847
01:32:38,800 --> 01:32:41,360
Speaker 17: about questions about the future, you know, whenever they're debating

1848
01:32:41,400 --> 01:32:43,640
Speaker 17: about anything. And I think that trajectory is going to

1849
01:32:43,720 --> 01:32:45,599
Speaker 17: keep going. That's a new consumer habit that I don't

1850
01:32:45,600 --> 01:32:46,639
Speaker 17: think is going to be undone.

1851
01:32:47,600 --> 01:32:52,120
Speaker 12: This is the demon child of crypto and sports betting,

1852
01:32:52,439 --> 01:32:56,599
Speaker 12: this financialization of everything to form a tradable asset out

1853
01:32:56,600 --> 01:33:01,280
Speaker 12: of any difference in opinion, creating new addictive consumer habits.

1854
01:33:02,040 --> 01:33:05,599
Speaker 12: These companies want to apply the logic of smartphone sports

1855
01:33:05,600 --> 01:33:10,439
Speaker 12: betting to everything, where everyone gets to be their own

1856
01:33:10,479 --> 01:33:14,639
Speaker 12: little Nate Silver while carrying around their own digital casino

1857
01:33:14,720 --> 01:33:18,559
Speaker 12: in their pocket, getting addicted to gambling on speculation of

1858
01:33:18,680 --> 01:33:23,000
Speaker 12: world suffering, and CNN is complicit in this. CNN and

1859
01:33:23,080 --> 01:33:26,680
Speaker 12: others have decided to partner with platforms that enable the

1860
01:33:26,720 --> 01:33:28,880
Speaker 12: people who decide when to drop bombs around the world

1861
01:33:28,920 --> 01:33:32,280
Speaker 12: to win millions of dollars by betting money on the

1862
01:33:32,400 --> 01:33:36,280
Speaker 12: choices they themselves are making at the expense of the

1863
01:33:36,320 --> 01:33:39,439
Speaker 12: rest of the world. And these companies think this is

1864
01:33:39,560 --> 01:33:43,080
Speaker 12: a good thing because the betting odds can serve as

1865
01:33:43,080 --> 01:33:46,439
Speaker 12: a potential heads up that something is likely to happen.

1866
01:33:47,360 --> 01:33:51,439
Speaker 12: Simple consumer protections for users, which currently are non existent,

1867
01:33:51,880 --> 01:33:55,559
Speaker 12: are just not enough. Congress needs to be far more

1868
01:33:55,600 --> 01:33:59,120
Speaker 12: involved in regulating online betting, and in the case of

1869
01:33:59,200 --> 01:34:03,280
Speaker 12: political events, it should just be completely banned. It is

1870
01:34:03,360 --> 01:34:07,840
Speaker 12: detrimental to a healthy society. It incentivizes corruption, cruelty, and

1871
01:34:07,920 --> 01:34:12,240
Speaker 12: erodes public trust. Gambling doesn't need to go away entirely,

1872
01:34:12,479 --> 01:34:15,559
Speaker 12: but it should return to being time and location locked.

1873
01:34:15,960 --> 01:34:20,320
Speaker 12: Go to Las Vegas like a fucking adult. Currently, there

1874
01:34:20,439 --> 01:34:26,719
Speaker 12: is no existing mechanism for individual states to regulate prediction markets.

1875
01:34:27,439 --> 01:34:32,000
Speaker 12: Only the federal government can, and Trump's federal government certainly

1876
01:34:32,040 --> 01:34:35,719
Speaker 12: seems like it's not going to considering the President's sun

1877
01:34:36,000 --> 01:34:40,599
Speaker 12: works for both of the main platforms, Kalshi and poly Market,

1878
01:34:41,360 --> 01:34:45,519
Speaker 12: and while news companies are legitimizing this, these platforms are

1879
01:34:45,520 --> 01:34:50,479
Speaker 12: now working as their own news aggregators, specifically Polymarket social

1880
01:34:50,479 --> 01:34:54,080
Speaker 12: media account, which is acting as a news aggregation account

1881
01:34:54,560 --> 01:34:57,400
Speaker 12: because that drives traffic back to their website, where people

1882
01:34:57,439 --> 01:35:00,479
Speaker 12: can bet on the news stories that Polymarket is sharing,

1883
01:35:00,880 --> 01:35:05,000
Speaker 12: even if those news stories are speculative or completely made up.

1884
01:35:05,880 --> 01:35:11,280
Speaker 12: On December fifth, Polymarket posted quote justin suspected J six

1885
01:35:11,360 --> 01:35:14,920
Speaker 12: pipe Bomber's legal council projected to argue he was included

1886
01:35:15,000 --> 01:35:19,720
Speaker 12: in Trump's pardon of those involved in January sixth unquote.

1887
01:35:19,760 --> 01:35:23,679
Speaker 12: This claim subsequently spread all around the Internet, parroted by

1888
01:35:23,720 --> 01:35:27,680
Speaker 12: people of a variety of political orientations. But if you

1889
01:35:27,800 --> 01:35:32,439
Speaker 12: read closely, the original post says suspected J six pipe

1890
01:35:32,439 --> 01:35:38,200
Speaker 12: Bomber's legal council projected to argue he was included in

1891
01:35:38,320 --> 01:35:42,920
Speaker 12: Trump's pardon, Polly Market is just spreading gambling information as

1892
01:35:43,000 --> 01:35:47,599
Speaker 12: if it is news content. Quote unquote projected just means

1893
01:35:47,600 --> 01:35:52,320
Speaker 12: that polymarket users are betting on this, But these projected

1894
01:35:52,320 --> 01:35:55,760
Speaker 12: posts are mixed in with other posts just aggregating the

1895
01:35:55,840 --> 01:36:00,000
Speaker 12: day's news. So unless you are paying super close attention,

1896
01:36:00,280 --> 01:36:03,280
Speaker 12: which rarely people on the Internet are, this becomes a

1897
01:36:03,400 --> 01:36:08,439
Speaker 12: trojan horse of disinformation. When news companies use the term

1898
01:36:08,560 --> 01:36:13,400
Speaker 12: projected on election night. Usually that indicates with pretty clear

1899
01:36:13,720 --> 01:36:17,679
Speaker 12: mathematical certainty that an event is going to happen. When

1900
01:36:17,760 --> 01:36:22,840
Speaker 12: polymarket uses projected in news tweets, it only indicates that

1901
01:36:22,960 --> 01:36:26,320
Speaker 12: Internet gamblers are swinging around money in an effort to

1902
01:36:26,439 --> 01:36:31,160
Speaker 12: create truth with once legitimate news companies not just complicit

1903
01:36:31,720 --> 01:36:36,760
Speaker 12: but active participants in this process. That doesn't for us

1904
01:36:36,800 --> 01:36:39,680
Speaker 12: today at it Could Happen Here, see you on the

1905
01:36:39,720 --> 01:37:01,000
Speaker 12: other side.

1906
01:36:51,680 --> 01:36:55,200
Speaker 4: Welcome to it Could Happen Here podcast, where a bunch

1907
01:36:55,240 --> 01:36:59,000
Speaker 4: of incredibly convoluted and very silly financial instruments to shore

1908
01:36:59,080 --> 01:37:01,080
Speaker 4: the entire world to come to me. I am your host,

1909
01:37:01,120 --> 01:37:04,720
Speaker 4: Mia Wong, and with me today is someone who does

1910
01:37:04,760 --> 01:37:07,600
Speaker 4: not spend all of her time deep in the bowels

1911
01:37:07,800 --> 01:37:12,680
Speaker 4: of arcane bullshit written by different Federal Reserve boards. And

1912
01:37:12,720 --> 01:37:16,000
Speaker 4: that is Maldy Conger, who is the host of the

1913
01:37:16,040 --> 01:37:19,680
Speaker 4: absolutely delightful I mean, okay, I guess this is a

1914
01:37:19,760 --> 01:37:23,880
Speaker 4: who is really winning here? Kind of question? In terms

1915
01:37:23,880 --> 01:37:26,600
Speaker 4: of things research.

1916
01:37:26,400 --> 01:37:29,040
Speaker 21: You spent a lot of time reading stuff written by

1917
01:37:29,240 --> 01:37:31,840
Speaker 21: Federal Reserve guys. I read a lot of stuff written

1918
01:37:31,840 --> 01:37:35,320
Speaker 21: by guys who want to kill the Federal Reserve guys. Yeah,

1919
01:37:36,439 --> 01:37:38,400
Speaker 21: you know what, I still don't know what the Federal

1920
01:37:38,400 --> 01:37:40,000
Speaker 21: Reserve is and I'm not gonna find out.

1921
01:37:41,120 --> 01:37:45,439
Speaker 4: You know, I don't actually think knowing what the Federal

1922
01:37:45,479 --> 01:37:47,960
Speaker 4: Reserve is somehow it doesn't change anything, And I don't

1923
01:37:47,960 --> 01:37:50,400
Speaker 4: think it's actually relevant to this app I mean it

1924
01:37:50,560 --> 01:37:52,400
Speaker 4: kind of. It's obviously it's relevant to everything.

1925
01:37:52,400 --> 01:37:55,679
Speaker 21: But well, means to say is the reason I'm here

1926
01:37:55,920 --> 01:37:57,880
Speaker 21: is because I don't know what the economy is, and

1927
01:37:57,920 --> 01:37:59,760
Speaker 21: at this point I'm afraid to find out.

1928
01:38:00,439 --> 01:38:02,679
Speaker 4: And unfortunately your worst fears are happening.

1929
01:38:02,760 --> 01:38:04,720
Speaker 21: Oh don't worry. By the end of this, I will

1930
01:38:04,720 --> 01:38:05,480
Speaker 21: not understand.

1931
01:38:06,160 --> 01:38:09,880
Speaker 4: I am going to attempt to explain the economy, and

1932
01:38:09,920 --> 01:38:15,200
Speaker 4: by by the economy, I mean shadow banking. Yeah. Also,

1933
01:38:15,439 --> 01:38:17,120
Speaker 4: before before I go into this, though, you should, you

1934
01:38:17,120 --> 01:38:18,439
Speaker 4: should listen to Weird Little Guys.

1935
01:38:18,560 --> 01:38:19,400
Speaker 22: It is.

1936
01:38:19,439 --> 01:38:22,080
Speaker 4: It's it's really good. I like it. All my friends

1937
01:38:22,240 --> 01:38:22,880
Speaker 4: really like it.

1938
01:38:23,280 --> 01:38:23,680
Speaker 21: Thank you.

1939
01:38:24,080 --> 01:38:30,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's somehow a nice comma, kind of relaxing show

1940
01:38:30,560 --> 01:38:33,360
Speaker 4: about neo Nazis.

1941
01:38:33,439 --> 01:38:38,400
Speaker 21: So that's very chill vibes. Yeah for a show about

1942
01:38:38,400 --> 01:38:40,920
Speaker 21: guys who are trying to like blow up school bus. Yes, yep.

1943
01:38:42,120 --> 01:38:44,960
Speaker 4: So all right, you know I'm reading this I'm looking

1944
01:38:45,040 --> 01:38:48,240
Speaker 4: over this script. Miraculously this isn't Oh wait, hold on,

1945
01:38:49,040 --> 01:38:50,720
Speaker 4: I think I cut the part where people blow up

1946
01:38:50,760 --> 01:38:53,559
Speaker 4: school buses. There was legitimately a segment in here that

1947
01:38:53,600 --> 01:38:56,040
Speaker 4: I might put back in or someone blows up a

1948
01:38:56,040 --> 01:38:56,599
Speaker 4: school bus.

1949
01:38:56,760 --> 01:38:59,000
Speaker 21: But what a crossover event.

1950
01:38:59,520 --> 01:39:02,880
Speaker 4: Oh oh boy, the Saudi is really good at that shit.

1951
01:39:02,960 --> 01:39:07,280
Speaker 4: It turns out okay, okay, But let let's get back

1952
01:39:07,280 --> 01:39:10,679
Speaker 4: to the topic at hand, which is what is shadow banking?

1953
01:39:11,000 --> 01:39:13,280
Speaker 4: And why does it matter to all of us people

1954
01:39:13,320 --> 01:39:15,920
Speaker 4: who live in the normal real world and not in

1955
01:39:16,040 --> 01:39:17,080
Speaker 4: fake finance world.

1956
01:39:17,920 --> 01:39:19,759
Speaker 21: Does it have anything to do with shadow wolves?

1957
01:39:20,160 --> 01:39:22,519
Speaker 4: Unfortunately, noe?

1958
01:39:22,640 --> 01:39:23,759
Speaker 21: What about shadow facts?

1959
01:39:24,360 --> 01:39:28,760
Speaker 4: Sadly, actually, there probably is a connection between the financing

1960
01:39:28,800 --> 01:39:31,759
Speaker 4: for the Lord of the Rings movies and shadow banking.

1961
01:39:32,120 --> 01:39:34,439
Speaker 4: I'm just too tired to work it right now.

1962
01:39:34,960 --> 01:39:37,719
Speaker 21: I've dragged us off track if we haven't even gotten

1963
01:39:37,800 --> 01:39:39,280
Speaker 21: on track yet. What is shadow bank?

1964
01:39:39,479 --> 01:39:42,040
Speaker 4: Okay? So the good news, the good news this is

1965
01:39:42,080 --> 01:39:44,320
Speaker 4: this is the first it's not the last piece of

1966
01:39:44,320 --> 01:39:47,760
Speaker 4: good news. We're gonna get this episode. But come the

1967
01:39:47,880 --> 01:39:51,320
Speaker 4: definition used by most non academics is actually.

1968
01:39:51,479 --> 01:39:52,920
Speaker 2: Not that bad.

1969
01:39:53,680 --> 01:39:56,960
Speaker 4: There's a pretty good It's very wishy washy because it's

1970
01:39:56,960 --> 01:39:59,800
Speaker 4: a congressional report, and so it's specifically not supposed to

1971
01:39:59,840 --> 01:40:02,800
Speaker 4: be taking a stance in either direction on anything because

1972
01:40:02,800 --> 01:40:04,960
Speaker 4: it's it's the Congressional Review Office, and they're supposed to

1973
01:40:04,960 --> 01:40:08,400
Speaker 4: be neutral, et cetera, et cetera. Allegedly, Yeah, right, you know,

1974
01:40:08,479 --> 01:40:11,679
Speaker 4: and like obviously they're not, but like you know, it's

1975
01:40:11,720 --> 01:40:15,880
Speaker 4: like kind of fine congressional report on the subject. And

1976
01:40:15,960 --> 01:40:19,880
Speaker 4: they do the thing that almost everyone does, which is

1977
01:40:19,920 --> 01:40:23,960
Speaker 4: they go back to the definition created by the Financial

1978
01:40:24,000 --> 01:40:26,600
Speaker 4: Stability Board, and I'm just gonna I'm just going to

1979
01:40:26,760 --> 01:40:31,600
Speaker 4: quote that because it's not that bad. Quote financial activities

1980
01:40:31,640 --> 01:40:36,240
Speaker 4: facilitated by institutions other than central banks, banks or public

1981
01:40:36,280 --> 01:40:37,440
Speaker 4: financial institutions.

1982
01:40:38,479 --> 01:40:40,559
Speaker 21: So it's banking that doesn't involve a bank.

1983
01:40:40,640 --> 01:40:41,439
Speaker 4: Yeah, canceled.

1984
01:40:41,520 --> 01:40:42,799
Speaker 21: I'm out. I'm out already.

1985
01:40:43,080 --> 01:40:43,280
Speaker 2: Yes.

1986
01:40:44,200 --> 01:40:48,720
Speaker 21: And they don't mean like me loaning you twenty dollars, No, no, no,

1987
01:40:48,960 --> 01:40:52,800
Speaker 21: of course not. They just mean unregulated banking. Oh yeah,

1988
01:40:53,040 --> 01:40:54,679
Speaker 21: which you can't legally call banking.

1989
01:40:55,400 --> 01:40:57,880
Speaker 4: I mean you actually can't legally call it banking. It's

1990
01:40:58,000 --> 01:41:01,479
Speaker 4: just things get weird really quickly.

1991
01:41:01,560 --> 01:41:03,880
Speaker 21: I Mean I'm not a bank understander, but I know

1992
01:41:03,880 --> 01:41:06,880
Speaker 21: at least in Virginia. You can't incorporate a business that

1993
01:41:06,960 --> 01:41:09,280
Speaker 21: has the word bank in the title unless you are

1994
01:41:09,360 --> 01:41:12,120
Speaker 21: legally a bank, because that's like misleading.

1995
01:41:12,280 --> 01:41:14,439
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't think they can legally call themselves a bank,

1996
01:41:14,479 --> 01:41:16,520
Speaker 4: but I guess you can call it banking activity.

1997
01:41:16,800 --> 01:41:18,160
Speaker 21: That's stupid in a matter already.

1998
01:41:18,479 --> 01:41:20,800
Speaker 4: Yes, Oh, you're gonna get so much more mad by

1999
01:41:20,840 --> 01:41:24,240
Speaker 4: the end of this. So the base definition is it's

2000
01:41:24,280 --> 01:41:27,080
Speaker 4: not that complicated, right, It's something that does banking stuff

2001
01:41:27,120 --> 01:41:30,240
Speaker 4: that is legally not a bank, you know, And so

2002
01:41:30,360 --> 01:41:34,200
Speaker 4: we could talk about what kinds of things is this, right,

2003
01:41:34,760 --> 01:41:38,360
Speaker 4: It's like private equity firms, it's hedge funds, it's venture

2004
01:41:38,400 --> 01:41:39,480
Speaker 4: capital firms.

2005
01:41:40,000 --> 01:41:42,559
Speaker 21: So it's like evil stuff that ruins the world for

2006
01:41:42,600 --> 01:41:44,920
Speaker 21: no reason except for like ten guys make money.

2007
01:41:45,479 --> 01:41:47,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, but it's also you know, pension funds, it's like

2008
01:41:47,920 --> 01:41:52,280
Speaker 4: insurance companies. It's sovereign wealth funds, business development companies, repot markets,

2009
01:41:52,320 --> 01:41:57,160
Speaker 4: broker dealers, special investment vehicles, securitization vehicles, money market mutual funds,

2010
01:41:57,200 --> 01:41:59,400
Speaker 4: assey backed commercial paper conduits.

2011
01:41:59,760 --> 01:42:02,920
Speaker 21: Hey thing, Bud, most of those things you just said

2012
01:42:02,960 --> 01:42:05,080
Speaker 21: to me are fake and they make me upset.

2013
01:42:05,640 --> 01:42:06,679
Speaker 4: It's really bad.

2014
01:42:07,000 --> 01:42:11,800
Speaker 21: Sovereign wealth funds. Shop, that's not that's not me. I

2015
01:42:11,880 --> 01:42:14,240
Speaker 21: still you know all these all these things are just

2016
01:42:14,240 --> 01:42:17,320
Speaker 21: like different ways of saying like you're poor and you're

2017
01:42:17,360 --> 01:42:17,840
Speaker 21: gonna die.

2018
01:42:18,120 --> 01:42:18,280
Speaker 4: Yeah.

2019
01:42:18,280 --> 01:42:18,439
Speaker 8: I mean.

2020
01:42:18,439 --> 01:42:20,799
Speaker 4: The funny thing is sovereign wealth fund is like kind

2021
01:42:20,840 --> 01:42:24,200
Speaker 4: of a less fake one in that it's like, hey,

2022
01:42:24,240 --> 01:42:26,439
Speaker 4: this is like fake. It's the well. It's like, this

2023
01:42:26,520 --> 01:42:29,000
Speaker 4: is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has pooled all of

2024
01:42:29,000 --> 01:42:32,240
Speaker 4: the money it's gotten from its like horrific crimes and

2025
01:42:32,280 --> 01:42:34,479
Speaker 4: put them together into one giant thing, and that's a

2026
01:42:34,479 --> 01:42:35,400
Speaker 4: sovereign wealth fund.

2027
01:42:35,880 --> 01:42:37,360
Speaker 21: Oh, so it's good, it's what you mean.

2028
01:42:39,400 --> 01:42:42,120
Speaker 4: No, I am a notable. There is, by the way,

2029
01:42:42,160 --> 01:42:44,320
Speaker 4: a camp of people who believe that sovereign wealth funds

2030
01:42:44,320 --> 01:42:46,599
Speaker 4: are like a socialist thing and that you could use

2031
01:42:46,600 --> 01:42:47,560
Speaker 4: them to do socialism.

2032
01:42:47,600 --> 01:42:48,759
Speaker 21: I'm gonna jump out the window.

2033
01:42:48,840 --> 01:42:51,880
Speaker 4: I think this is so stupid. Yeah, this is we

2034
01:42:52,080 --> 01:42:55,559
Speaker 4: haven't even gotten into the nightmare stuff. So remember I

2035
01:42:55,600 --> 01:42:59,320
Speaker 4: was talking about the Financial Stability Board definition in that

2036
01:42:59,360 --> 01:43:02,000
Speaker 4: congressional right where it's like, okay, this is a bank

2037
01:43:02,040 --> 01:43:03,920
Speaker 4: that does non banking stuff or a non bank that

2038
01:43:03,920 --> 01:43:05,240
Speaker 4: does banking stuff. Sorry, oh, I.

2039
01:43:05,160 --> 01:43:07,200
Speaker 21: Guess we should say, I guess we forgot to say

2040
01:43:07,200 --> 01:43:09,800
Speaker 21: at the top. The reason you're explaining shadow banking to

2041
01:43:09,880 --> 01:43:12,439
Speaker 21: me is because we saw an article last week that

2042
01:43:13,280 --> 01:43:15,840
Speaker 21: what those those not banks were putting a stop on

2043
01:43:15,920 --> 01:43:18,840
Speaker 21: withdrawals from their not banks and I didn't know what

2044
01:43:18,880 --> 01:43:19,320
Speaker 21: that meant.

2045
01:43:19,880 --> 01:43:24,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's amazingly this this is so convoluted. We're not

2046
01:43:24,160 --> 01:43:25,599
Speaker 4: even gonna get to that this week.

2047
01:43:25,520 --> 01:43:27,519
Speaker 21: Right, But like that's that's why we're.

2048
01:43:27,360 --> 01:43:30,000
Speaker 4: Explaining that's why. Right, there's like, yeah, there's like there's

2049
01:43:30,040 --> 01:43:32,200
Speaker 4: like a mini bank run going on with these like

2050
01:43:32,280 --> 01:43:36,400
Speaker 4: shadow banks banks. Yeah, so we're gonna get into how

2051
01:43:36,479 --> 01:43:39,200
Speaker 4: that can happen and why. But but before we get there,

2052
01:43:39,240 --> 01:43:41,840
Speaker 4: we need to talk about all, right, to get a

2053
01:43:41,880 --> 01:43:44,920
Speaker 4: sense of the complexity of this. Right, the Congressional report

2054
01:43:45,040 --> 01:43:49,000
Speaker 4: and like, the accepted terminology for this is not shadow banks, it.

2055
01:43:48,880 --> 01:43:50,960
Speaker 21: Is, right, that can't be their official name. That's not

2056
01:43:51,000 --> 01:43:51,800
Speaker 21: their government name.

2057
01:43:52,439 --> 01:43:57,479
Speaker 4: No, it's it's non bank financial intermediation. Now what the

2058
01:43:57,560 --> 01:43:59,519
Speaker 4: fuck is that? And this is where this episode goes

2059
01:43:59,520 --> 01:44:02,920
Speaker 4: completely off the rails, because the components of what count

2060
01:44:02,960 --> 01:44:06,479
Speaker 4: as intermediation are so complicated. I Am not going to

2061
01:44:06,520 --> 01:44:08,760
Speaker 4: try to describe it until literally the end of this.

2062
01:44:09,040 --> 01:44:11,719
Speaker 21: I mean, is it like what is Venmo officially? Really?

2063
01:44:11,760 --> 01:44:15,240
Speaker 21: Venmo's not a bank, but it provides like financial services.

2064
01:44:15,800 --> 01:44:18,280
Speaker 4: Actually, I by.

2065
01:44:18,320 --> 01:44:20,360
Speaker 21: Because it's because it's like a financial intermediary.

2066
01:44:20,439 --> 01:44:23,479
Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, it might technically be a non bank. I

2067
01:44:24,080 --> 01:44:26,479
Speaker 4: don't know what the regulatory structure is.

2068
01:44:26,560 --> 01:44:28,000
Speaker 21: It's not legally about Yeah, I.

2069
01:44:28,400 --> 01:44:29,880
Speaker 4: Think I think that technically is.

2070
01:44:29,880 --> 01:44:31,479
Speaker 21: One score one for Mali.

2071
01:44:32,200 --> 01:44:35,439
Speaker 4: Yeah. But okay, so this is this is gonna get

2072
01:44:35,479 --> 01:44:39,960
Speaker 4: really bad. Okay, So when I first started researching this episode, right,

2073
01:44:40,000 --> 01:44:43,639
Speaker 4: the first thing that I click on is is the

2074
01:44:43,640 --> 01:44:47,479
Speaker 4: Federal Reserves chart of how the shadow banking sector works

2075
01:44:47,479 --> 01:44:49,760
Speaker 4: compared to the normal banking sector. Molly, you have seen

2076
01:44:49,800 --> 01:44:52,439
Speaker 4: this because I posted it as a joke in our

2077
01:44:52,439 --> 01:44:57,799
Speaker 4: group chat. This chart, I have like a very very large,

2078
01:44:58,000 --> 01:45:00,679
Speaker 4: like it is like a big normal ass I monitor

2079
01:45:00,840 --> 01:45:03,200
Speaker 4: that I like to do my work on. I had

2080
01:45:03,200 --> 01:45:06,479
Speaker 4: to zoom in to three hundred and eighty percent just

2081
01:45:06,560 --> 01:45:10,120
Speaker 4: to make out the letters that label the boxes on

2082
01:45:10,160 --> 01:45:12,519
Speaker 4: this chart. If you want to read it, you have

2083
01:45:12,560 --> 01:45:14,960
Speaker 4: to zoom into five hundred percent.

2084
01:45:15,439 --> 01:45:16,960
Speaker 21: That doesn't seem like a well made chart.

2085
01:45:17,800 --> 01:45:20,240
Speaker 4: No, here's the thing, it's actually really good. It's just

2086
01:45:20,320 --> 01:45:24,920
Speaker 4: this complicated. I learned later from a paper by Copenhagen

2087
01:45:25,000 --> 01:45:29,240
Speaker 4: Business School professor Odny Helga Daughter. We're gonna come back

2088
01:45:29,280 --> 01:45:32,559
Speaker 4: to Hellga Daughter's work a lot in this episode, but

2089
01:45:33,000 --> 01:45:36,080
Speaker 4: I learned from from her because she has also experienced

2090
01:45:36,080 --> 01:45:38,960
Speaker 4: seeing this same chart and going what the is this

2091
01:45:39,000 --> 01:45:42,200
Speaker 4: fuck ass chart? I found out that the Federal Reserve

2092
01:45:42,320 --> 01:45:45,759
Speaker 4: recommends that in order to have the diagram be legible,

2093
01:45:46,200 --> 01:45:49,880
Speaker 4: you're supposed to print this chart as a three foot

2094
01:45:50,040 --> 01:45:51,599
Speaker 4: by four foot poster.

2095
01:45:52,160 --> 01:45:56,280
Speaker 21: Oh that makes sense, like meeting style, but like we're on.

2096
01:45:56,360 --> 01:45:59,200
Speaker 4: Easel, yeah right, But like again, this is this is

2097
01:45:59,240 --> 01:46:02,760
Speaker 4: a diagram that he's just labeling the parts of the

2098
01:46:02,840 --> 01:46:06,120
Speaker 4: system and making and making like a line that shows

2099
01:46:06,160 --> 01:46:07,439
Speaker 4: how stuff moves through it.

2100
01:46:07,680 --> 01:46:10,280
Speaker 21: I guess I still don't know what we're talking about.

2101
01:46:12,080 --> 01:46:14,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, so this is what we're going to get into

2102
01:46:14,200 --> 01:46:16,559
Speaker 4: in a second, But first we have to talk about

2103
01:46:16,600 --> 01:46:19,200
Speaker 4: something even more bleak, which is that Oh yeah, by

2104
01:46:19,240 --> 01:46:21,920
Speaker 4: the way, these like non banking bank things like these

2105
01:46:21,920 --> 01:46:24,240
Speaker 4: like all these like venture capital firms, all these hedge funds,

2106
01:46:24,240 --> 01:46:29,840
Speaker 4: all these fucking weird ghoulish banks that are not banks. Uh, yeah,

2107
01:46:29,880 --> 01:46:33,280
Speaker 4: they have twice as many assets than the regular banking system.

2108
01:46:33,640 --> 01:46:35,120
Speaker 21: Oh that doesn't seem good.

2109
01:46:35,520 --> 01:46:37,599
Speaker 4: Oh, it's about to get worse. It's about to get worse.

2110
01:46:37,640 --> 01:46:40,800
Speaker 21: Molly, that's that's like saying I keep seventy percent of

2111
01:46:40,800 --> 01:46:43,160
Speaker 21: the food in my house outside on the porch like

2112
01:46:43,400 --> 01:46:44,360
Speaker 21: it goes in the fridge.

2113
01:46:44,400 --> 01:46:48,679
Speaker 4: Oh, oh, it's so bad. It's so bad. So okay.

2114
01:46:49,000 --> 01:46:50,800
Speaker 4: There's a pretty good congressional report that I was talking

2115
01:46:50,800 --> 01:46:55,160
Speaker 4: about earlier that has this terrifying quote quote. As of

2116
01:46:55,200 --> 01:46:59,360
Speaker 4: twenty twenty three, the broad measured total financial assets and

2117
01:46:59,439 --> 01:47:03,400
Speaker 4: narrow measu your assets at nbfisis is the shadow banks

2118
01:47:04,000 --> 01:47:09,360
Speaker 4: reached eighty five point seven trillion dollars and twenty two

2119
01:47:09,479 --> 01:47:13,120
Speaker 4: point two trillion dollars, respectively in the United States.

2120
01:47:13,280 --> 01:47:15,120
Speaker 21: But that's more than our GDP.

2121
01:47:15,680 --> 01:47:18,200
Speaker 4: That's almost three times our GDP.

2122
01:47:18,439 --> 01:47:21,879
Speaker 21: So that's a fake amount of money. Yes, that's not real.

2123
01:47:21,760 --> 01:47:25,599
Speaker 4: At all, but it kind of is. Right. These compared

2124
01:47:25,680 --> 01:47:28,920
Speaker 4: to total financial assets of thirty one point one trillion

2125
01:47:28,960 --> 01:47:32,840
Speaker 4: dollars at banks in the same period. So again, this

2126
01:47:32,920 --> 01:47:35,839
Speaker 4: is this is almost three times our GDP in assets

2127
01:47:35,840 --> 01:47:37,200
Speaker 4: that they manage or control.

2128
01:47:37,400 --> 01:47:40,000
Speaker 21: So where does the money live?

2129
01:47:40,640 --> 01:47:47,760
Speaker 4: In a whole bunch of unbelievably convoluted bullshit like combinations

2130
01:47:47,800 --> 01:47:50,439
Speaker 4: of like loans and real estate and stuff like that.

2131
01:47:50,600 --> 01:47:53,320
Speaker 21: It's not real money. So like, okay, imagine this is

2132
01:47:53,400 --> 01:47:56,600
Speaker 21: schoolhouse rock and instead of the singing bill, you're like

2133
01:47:56,640 --> 01:48:00,799
Speaker 21: a dollar bill, Like where are you we are about

2134
01:48:00,840 --> 01:48:03,800
Speaker 21: to explain this, where does the money live?

2135
01:48:04,800 --> 01:48:08,360
Speaker 4: Yeah? So okay, okay, we're we are about one huge

2136
01:48:08,400 --> 01:48:11,000
Speaker 4: paragraphs away from getting to this or like one paragraph.

2137
01:48:11,040 --> 01:48:12,479
Speaker 21: Okay.

2138
01:48:12,560 --> 01:48:14,680
Speaker 4: So the other thing that's very important about this, and

2139
01:48:14,720 --> 01:48:16,360
Speaker 4: this is something Mollie was kind of touching up at

2140
01:48:16,320 --> 01:48:17,639
Speaker 4: the beginning to get the Eppen, So maybe I should

2141
01:48:17,640 --> 01:48:20,120
Speaker 4: have opened with this. Yeah, these people, these are the

2142
01:48:20,120 --> 01:48:22,320
Speaker 4: people who blew up the economy in two thousand and eight.

2143
01:48:22,800 --> 01:48:24,880
Speaker 21: Well, yeah, because they're making stuff up.

2144
01:48:25,120 --> 01:48:28,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's so, it's so bullshit, Molly, You're gonna get

2145
01:48:28,240 --> 01:48:28,679
Speaker 4: so mad.

2146
01:48:28,960 --> 01:48:30,920
Speaker 21: If this is Calvin Ball, fuck you I win.

2147
01:48:31,200 --> 01:48:35,519
Speaker 4: Yeah, it literally is. It's nonsense. It's gibberish. They're doing

2148
01:48:35,560 --> 01:48:38,200
Speaker 4: fucking betting markets with the entire world economy.

2149
01:48:38,320 --> 01:48:39,679
Speaker 21: Oh yeah, we can all do that now.

2150
01:48:40,680 --> 01:48:43,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's fun. It's like we we now have the

2151
01:48:43,120 --> 01:48:45,439
Speaker 4: power to do the shit that destroyed the entire world

2152
01:48:45,479 --> 01:48:47,599
Speaker 4: economy in two thousand and eight. So that the thing

2153
01:48:47,600 --> 01:48:50,639
Speaker 4: about shadow banking, and the reason why it's complicated to explain,

2154
01:48:50,840 --> 01:48:54,440
Speaker 4: is that it's a catch all term for like a

2155
01:48:54,479 --> 01:48:58,280
Speaker 4: million types of institutions that do different things, right, the

2156
01:48:58,280 --> 01:49:01,880
Speaker 4: commonality they have is that they're all not regulated by

2157
01:49:02,000 --> 01:49:03,560
Speaker 4: the banking regulations.

2158
01:49:03,920 --> 01:49:04,000
Speaker 9: Right.

2159
01:49:04,040 --> 01:49:05,880
Speaker 21: It's like, we found a way to do financial crime

2160
01:49:05,880 --> 01:49:08,320
Speaker 21: that's not illegal because they forgot to make this illegal.

2161
01:49:08,600 --> 01:49:11,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know, but but the thing is it's

2162
01:49:11,320 --> 01:49:15,519
Speaker 4: so embedded into the system that, like the US debt

2163
01:49:16,000 --> 01:49:20,519
Speaker 4: working is dependent on the shadow banks buying it.

2164
01:49:21,160 --> 01:49:23,120
Speaker 21: Like I don't believe in that either, So I'm good.

2165
01:49:23,280 --> 01:49:25,880
Speaker 4: Oh it's so fake, Molly, I'm not even gonna attempt

2166
01:49:25,920 --> 01:49:28,639
Speaker 4: to explain what an overnight repo purchases to you, because

2167
01:49:29,120 --> 01:49:31,280
Speaker 4: it's the fakest thing I've ever seen, where they just

2168
01:49:31,680 --> 01:49:34,000
Speaker 4: they make one trillion dollars exist overnight and then it

2169
01:49:34,000 --> 01:49:36,320
Speaker 4: stops existing at the end of the night. It's incredible.

2170
01:49:36,800 --> 01:49:38,680
Speaker 21: I love how much of the economy is based on

2171
01:49:38,720 --> 01:49:41,280
Speaker 21: guys just imagining stuff and agreeing on the thing they

2172
01:49:41,360 --> 01:49:44,080
Speaker 21: imagined and then trading their imaginary tokens like this is

2173
01:49:44,080 --> 01:49:45,240
Speaker 21: fucking POGs grow.

2174
01:49:45,240 --> 01:49:48,240
Speaker 4: Up, yep, this is this, This this is. This is, unfortunately,

2175
01:49:48,720 --> 01:49:51,200
Speaker 4: what our entire world is based on. It's so fun.

2176
01:49:52,479 --> 01:49:56,880
Speaker 4: Oh god, Okay, so what is actually shadow banking. I've

2177
01:49:56,880 --> 01:50:00,360
Speaker 4: given you the broadest definition possible, which is, like, again,

2178
01:50:00,400 --> 01:50:02,759
Speaker 4: it's the it's doing bank ship without being a bank.

2179
01:50:03,360 --> 01:50:06,120
Speaker 4: But let's go back to the beginning of the term,

2180
01:50:06,600 --> 01:50:09,760
Speaker 4: which is where most people tend to start or get

2181
01:50:09,840 --> 01:50:13,240
Speaker 4: to eventually. This is from an IMF paper quote. The

2182
01:50:13,360 --> 01:50:16,760
Speaker 4: term shadow bank was coined by economist Paul McCauley at

2183
01:50:16,760 --> 01:50:19,719
Speaker 4: a two thousand and seven speech at the Annual Financial

2184
01:50:19,720 --> 01:50:23,240
Speaker 4: Symposium hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank in Jackson,

2185
01:50:23,280 --> 01:50:29,280
Speaker 4: holl Wyoming. And basically, it's institutions that borrow money in

2186
01:50:29,320 --> 01:50:33,200
Speaker 4: the short term through money markets to finance long term loans.

2187
01:50:33,680 --> 01:50:36,639
Speaker 4: But they aren't banks, so they can't go through the FED.

2188
01:50:37,280 --> 01:50:39,400
Speaker 21: They're financing loans with other loans.

2189
01:50:39,560 --> 01:50:42,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're gonna so from a not bank.

2190
01:50:42,360 --> 01:50:44,320
Speaker 21: Yeah, but the big loan is from a real bank,

2191
01:50:44,360 --> 01:50:46,160
Speaker 21: and then the little loan is from a fake bank.

2192
01:50:46,640 --> 01:50:48,120
Speaker 21: Give me, none of the money is real.

2193
01:50:48,240 --> 01:50:51,519
Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on, okay, we're going to get there.

2194
01:50:51,320 --> 01:50:53,559
Speaker 4: We're going to explain this in terms of burgers. It's

2195
01:50:53,600 --> 01:50:56,599
Speaker 4: going to be. Okay, I believe in us perfect, perfect name.

2196
01:50:56,760 --> 01:50:59,240
Speaker 4: But the other thing he describes is is and this

2197
01:50:59,280 --> 01:51:02,439
Speaker 4: is from Helga quote in the speech. She describes shadow

2198
01:51:02,479 --> 01:51:07,720
Speaker 4: banking as the whole alphabet soup of leveraged up investment conduits, vehicles,

2199
01:51:07,720 --> 01:51:11,479
Speaker 4: and structures. So what he's talking about specifically is, these

2200
01:51:11,479 --> 01:51:13,200
Speaker 4: are the guys who blew up the economy. Who doesn't

2201
01:51:13,200 --> 01:51:15,599
Speaker 4: e like these specifically? This is what he's talking about, right,

2202
01:51:16,000 --> 01:51:18,519
Speaker 4: These are the people who took a mortgage and then

2203
01:51:18,760 --> 01:51:20,800
Speaker 4: did a bunch of bullshit to it and what's called

2204
01:51:20,800 --> 01:51:23,920
Speaker 4: a securitization chain. They did a bunch of bullshit to

2205
01:51:23,960 --> 01:51:25,719
Speaker 4: it so you could give the loan to someone else,

2206
01:51:26,000 --> 01:51:27,840
Speaker 4: so you could sell to someone else, and this blew

2207
01:51:27,920 --> 01:51:29,840
Speaker 4: up the entire world economy. That's what he's talking about.

2208
01:51:29,880 --> 01:51:32,560
Speaker 4: He's talking about the banks that are not banks, the

2209
01:51:32,600 --> 01:51:35,320
Speaker 4: shadow banks that did all of this bullshit to turn

2210
01:51:35,880 --> 01:51:39,680
Speaker 4: like someone's mortgage into a fucking thing you could bet on.

2211
01:51:40,240 --> 01:51:46,080
Speaker 21: So selling debt is like selling the idea of future money. Yeah,

2212
01:51:46,200 --> 01:51:48,960
Speaker 21: and then sometimes that future money doesn't cout, yeah, so

2213
01:51:49,000 --> 01:51:49,879
Speaker 21: it doesn't exist.

2214
01:51:50,160 --> 01:51:52,760
Speaker 4: So so okay, I will say you do not need

2215
01:51:52,800 --> 01:51:55,000
Speaker 4: to understand this yet because we haven't. We still have

2216
01:51:55,000 --> 01:51:56,160
Speaker 4: not already the actual explanation.

2217
01:51:56,240 --> 01:51:57,080
Speaker 21: I'm never going to.

2218
01:51:57,439 --> 01:51:59,720
Speaker 4: I believe in us, we can do this. It's not

2219
01:51:59,760 --> 01:52:02,920
Speaker 4: that that. Okay, I'm not torturing you on purpose.

2220
01:52:02,960 --> 01:52:04,240
Speaker 2: I'm just no, it's.

2221
01:52:04,080 --> 01:52:08,120
Speaker 4: Okay, I believe in you. So I want to mention

2222
01:52:08,160 --> 01:52:10,920
Speaker 4: that I'm very indebted here to the paper I mentioned

2223
01:52:10,960 --> 01:52:15,559
Speaker 4: earlier from Copenhagen Business School professor Adny Helga Daughter, who

2224
01:52:15,560 --> 01:52:18,519
Speaker 4: wrote of She wrote a very good simplified explanation of

2225
01:52:18,560 --> 01:52:21,960
Speaker 4: this in her Review of International Political Economy article called

2226
01:52:22,040 --> 01:52:25,640
Speaker 4: Banking upside Down the Implicit Politics of Shadow Banking Expertise.

2227
01:52:26,360 --> 01:52:28,960
Speaker 4: But okay, as you can tell by the fact that

2228
01:52:29,040 --> 01:52:33,360
Speaker 4: it's called Banking upside Down the Implicit Politics of shadow

2229
01:52:33,400 --> 01:52:36,439
Speaker 4: Banking Expertise, this has been when she's simplifying it. She's

2230
01:52:36,479 --> 01:52:40,920
Speaker 4: simplifying it from like economists down to like a political

2231
01:52:40,960 --> 01:52:44,559
Speaker 4: scientist or an anthropologist can understand this. I am about

2232
01:52:44,600 --> 01:52:48,559
Speaker 4: to attempt to simplify this down to a regular person,

2233
01:52:48,760 --> 01:52:51,639
Speaker 4: can I understand this? So I'm drawing on a lot

2234
01:52:51,680 --> 01:52:54,160
Speaker 4: of her stuff for the first part of this explanation,

2235
01:52:54,680 --> 01:52:56,960
Speaker 4: but I am I've turned it into burgers.

2236
01:52:57,800 --> 01:53:00,439
Speaker 21: So I'll do my best I'm being brave.

2237
01:53:00,840 --> 01:53:04,240
Speaker 4: Okay. So a shadow bank, right, it's something that does banking. Ship,

2238
01:53:04,280 --> 01:53:06,280
Speaker 4: that's not a bank. So what do I mean by banking?

2239
01:53:06,320 --> 01:53:06,519
Speaker 6: Shit?

2240
01:53:07,200 --> 01:53:09,479
Speaker 21: That was my next question. Yes, I think we need

2241
01:53:09,520 --> 01:53:11,120
Speaker 21: to start with what is a bank?

2242
01:53:11,200 --> 01:53:11,360
Speaker 23: Yes?

2243
01:53:11,479 --> 01:53:13,559
Speaker 4: So first, so okay, okay, and this is this is

2244
01:53:13,600 --> 01:53:16,840
Speaker 4: this is where we're starting here. What does a bank do?

2245
01:53:17,479 --> 01:53:19,519
Speaker 21: I put my money in it and they hold it

2246
01:53:19,520 --> 01:53:19,760
Speaker 21: for me.

2247
01:53:20,040 --> 01:53:22,800
Speaker 4: So no, actually, and this is the interesting part.

2248
01:53:22,960 --> 01:53:25,759
Speaker 21: No, they do stuff with it. Oh yeah, they're holding

2249
01:53:25,800 --> 01:53:27,200
Speaker 21: onto the promise of my money.

2250
01:53:27,760 --> 01:53:30,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, so okay, let's let's just let's just look at

2251
01:53:30,000 --> 01:53:32,639
Speaker 4: this for a second. So okay, So regular people give

2252
01:53:32,680 --> 01:53:34,760
Speaker 4: them money to store in the bank. This is called

2253
01:53:34,760 --> 01:53:38,680
Speaker 4: a deposit. The bank takes your money and loans it

2254
01:53:38,720 --> 01:53:42,639
Speaker 4: out right and uses that to make more money. This

2255
01:53:42,680 --> 01:53:45,040
Speaker 4: is how it pays you interest. Right, is that it's

2256
01:53:45,080 --> 01:53:46,880
Speaker 4: it's taking your money and it's loaning it out to

2257
01:53:46,960 --> 01:53:50,040
Speaker 4: other to other people, it's buying things with it. That

2258
01:53:50,040 --> 01:53:53,479
Speaker 4: part I understand. Yeah, And this is obviously a cartoon image.

2259
01:53:53,479 --> 01:53:55,160
Speaker 4: And I know there's gonna be econ people who are

2260
01:53:55,160 --> 01:53:58,679
Speaker 4: gonna be mad at me. Look you if you understand why.

2261
01:53:58,600 --> 01:54:00,280
Speaker 21: Are they listening to this. If you're you know what

2262
01:54:00,320 --> 01:54:04,479
Speaker 21: this means, go away. This isn't for you. I'm not

2263
01:54:04,560 --> 01:54:07,040
Speaker 21: humiliating myself for your entertainment, like for the.

2264
01:54:07,040 --> 01:54:09,760
Speaker 4: Political economy people here when I say stuff that might

2265
01:54:09,880 --> 01:54:12,639
Speaker 4: that's like technically kind of fuzzy.

2266
01:54:13,160 --> 01:54:14,880
Speaker 21: It's for me the podcast idiot.

2267
01:54:15,120 --> 01:54:17,599
Speaker 4: Yeah, like you you understand this, Like I work at

2268
01:54:17,600 --> 01:54:20,120
Speaker 4: the level of hamburgers here, so like we have to

2269
01:54:20,120 --> 01:54:25,240
Speaker 4: do some abstractions. So okay, the important thing for our purposes, right,

2270
01:54:25,400 --> 01:54:27,320
Speaker 4: is that there's two things here, right, There's like the

2271
01:54:27,360 --> 01:54:29,920
Speaker 4: deposit to the money you give them, and then there's

2272
01:54:29,920 --> 01:54:33,640
Speaker 4: the loans, right, and these operates on different timelines.

2273
01:54:33,760 --> 01:54:33,960
Speaker 2: Right.

2274
01:54:34,400 --> 01:54:36,640
Speaker 4: You can take the deposit out at any time, least

2275
01:54:36,680 --> 01:54:39,720
Speaker 4: in theory, but they can't get the money from the

2276
01:54:39,760 --> 01:54:43,400
Speaker 4: loan back at any time right now. This is like

2277
01:54:43,720 --> 01:54:47,520
Speaker 4: one of the critical things of what a bank is

2278
01:54:47,240 --> 01:54:48,760
Speaker 4: is is this timeline thing.

2279
01:54:49,000 --> 01:54:49,200
Speaker 2: Right.

2280
01:54:49,280 --> 01:54:52,720
Speaker 4: It turns your your money, which you can take out

2281
01:54:52,720 --> 01:54:56,400
Speaker 4: at any time, into a different kind of thing, this loan,

2282
01:54:56,600 --> 01:55:00,240
Speaker 4: which can't be taken out immediately, right, and the have

2283
01:55:00,280 --> 01:55:05,680
Speaker 4: to make money. So this is called maturity transformation. This

2284
01:55:05,800 --> 01:55:08,600
Speaker 4: is a very simple concept. They have made very complicated.

2285
01:55:09,080 --> 01:55:11,280
Speaker 4: This is one of the core aspects of that definition

2286
01:55:11,280 --> 01:55:12,480
Speaker 4: I was talking about earlier. This is one of the

2287
01:55:12,520 --> 01:55:15,480
Speaker 4: four things in it. But you now understand this. It's

2288
01:55:15,480 --> 01:55:17,880
Speaker 4: not that complicated. It's it's it's takes short term, make

2289
01:55:17,960 --> 01:55:20,880
Speaker 4: long term, and we'll get to doing the reverse in

2290
01:55:20,920 --> 01:55:21,360
Speaker 4: a second.

2291
01:55:21,640 --> 01:55:23,280
Speaker 21: Oh, I don't think it works the other way.

2292
01:55:23,760 --> 01:55:27,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's gonna go so badly. It's gonna so badly.

2293
01:55:27,680 --> 01:55:30,080
Speaker 21: I don't know about bank, but just generally speaking, like

2294
01:55:30,120 --> 01:55:33,280
Speaker 21: in terms of time and like how like material reality works.

2295
01:55:33,320 --> 01:55:34,760
Speaker 21: I don't think it works the other way.

2296
01:55:35,160 --> 01:55:38,720
Speaker 4: It's it's not great. It's not great, Molly, it's not great. Okay,

2297
01:55:38,760 --> 01:55:42,240
Speaker 4: So okay. There is, however, a problem here, right, which

2298
01:55:42,280 --> 01:55:45,160
Speaker 4: is what happens if everyone tries to get their short

2299
01:55:45,280 --> 01:55:46,800
Speaker 4: term money back at the same time.

2300
01:55:47,520 --> 01:55:48,000
Speaker 2: We can't.

2301
01:55:48,320 --> 01:55:51,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, right, because you have deposit insurance. Yeah right, because

2302
01:55:51,760 --> 01:55:55,480
Speaker 4: the banks aren't holding short term cash. What they're holding

2303
01:55:55,600 --> 01:55:59,160
Speaker 4: is long term loans, and those loans like you can't

2304
01:55:59,240 --> 01:56:04,040
Speaker 4: pay someone alone. Well okay, actually, this entire the crux

2305
01:56:04,080 --> 01:56:06,800
Speaker 4: of this episode is they think that they did do that. Yeah, yes,

2306
01:56:06,880 --> 01:56:08,640
Speaker 4: and it blew up the entire world economy.

2307
01:56:08,680 --> 01:56:11,200
Speaker 21: But if but if I wanted forty thousand dollars out

2308
01:56:11,240 --> 01:56:12,720
Speaker 21: of my If I had a checking out, it was

2309
01:56:12,760 --> 01:56:14,600
Speaker 21: forty thousand dollars in it. Yeah, and they gave me

2310
01:56:14,720 --> 01:56:17,360
Speaker 21: my neighbor's mortgage as a prompt. That would it worked

2311
01:56:17,360 --> 01:56:20,280
Speaker 21: for me? That would have worked for no? Fuck that, no, no, no, no.

2312
01:56:20,400 --> 01:56:22,440
Speaker 4: You need you need you need, you need something that

2313
01:56:22,440 --> 01:56:24,840
Speaker 4: can buy a burger, and they're not giving you that.

2314
01:56:25,720 --> 01:56:29,440
Speaker 4: So okay, this is very very bad. If people try

2315
01:56:29,440 --> 01:56:31,120
Speaker 4: to do this, it is called a bank run. It

2316
01:56:31,240 --> 01:56:32,120
Speaker 4: is not good.

2317
01:56:32,240 --> 01:56:32,720
Speaker 21: It's bad.

2318
01:56:32,920 --> 01:56:33,120
Speaker 4: Yeah.

2319
01:56:33,160 --> 01:56:35,160
Speaker 21: And so this this blew up.

2320
01:56:35,120 --> 01:56:38,760
Speaker 4: The entire world economy so many goddamn times that eventually

2321
01:56:39,320 --> 01:56:44,120
Speaker 4: we got financial regulation. Now this this regulation requires banks

2322
01:56:44,160 --> 01:56:46,920
Speaker 4: to have money that is like actual cash they can

2323
01:56:46,960 --> 01:56:50,960
Speaker 4: hand you like right now, on hand at all times,

2324
01:56:50,960 --> 01:56:53,320
Speaker 4: and the government gets to and this is that's a

2325
01:56:53,360 --> 01:56:55,560
Speaker 4: little bit simification, but like, yeah, that's.

2326
01:56:55,200 --> 01:56:57,400
Speaker 21: How it works, right, like, and it's insured by the government.

2327
01:56:57,760 --> 01:56:59,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the government will give you your money back

2328
01:56:59,560 --> 01:57:01,480
Speaker 4: if if the bank goes under up to like a

2329
01:57:01,480 --> 01:57:06,000
Speaker 4: certain amount of dollars fed Yep, this is this this

2330
01:57:06,120 --> 01:57:08,000
Speaker 4: that's that's what that means, right, the government will give

2331
01:57:08,040 --> 01:57:11,320
Speaker 4: you your money back. But also there's a there's a

2332
01:57:11,400 --> 01:57:13,800
Speaker 4: trade off to this. So this is a massive benefit

2333
01:57:13,840 --> 01:57:15,440
Speaker 4: for the banks, right, the fact the fact that if

2334
01:57:15,480 --> 01:57:17,440
Speaker 4: they go under, all of their assets will be repaid

2335
01:57:17,440 --> 01:57:19,920
Speaker 4: by the government. It's a it's a massive benefit for

2336
01:57:19,960 --> 01:57:22,000
Speaker 4: them because it means that putting your money in the

2337
01:57:22,040 --> 01:57:22,760
Speaker 4: bank is like safe.

2338
01:57:22,840 --> 01:57:25,080
Speaker 21: Yeah. I love that for me, right, Yeah.

2339
01:57:24,880 --> 01:57:28,160
Speaker 4: It's good. Now, the cost to the banks is that

2340
01:57:28,240 --> 01:57:30,400
Speaker 4: the Feds get to see their balance sheet, right, the

2341
01:57:30,400 --> 01:57:32,440
Speaker 4: Feds get to see what they're doing with their fucking money,

2342
01:57:32,440 --> 01:57:35,080
Speaker 4: and they get to make sure that these banks aren't

2343
01:57:35,120 --> 01:57:36,280
Speaker 4: doing insane shit.

2344
01:57:36,480 --> 01:57:38,800
Speaker 21: Okay, that makes sense because they're insurance.

2345
01:57:38,880 --> 01:57:42,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, and that like they're not doing like unbelievably risky

2346
01:57:42,760 --> 01:57:45,640
Speaker 4: awful ship. And also that they're actually holding enough money

2347
01:57:45,640 --> 01:57:47,160
Speaker 4: to be able to pay people out right.

2348
01:57:47,240 --> 01:57:49,440
Speaker 21: Okay, so far, so good. I I understand bank.

2349
01:57:50,240 --> 01:57:56,040
Speaker 4: Yeah. Now, Shadow Banking boldly asked the question, Okay, but

2350
01:57:56,080 --> 01:57:59,560
Speaker 4: what if you did all of the banking backwards, no

2351
01:57:59,560 --> 01:58:03,680
Speaker 4: one had access to the books, and the governments will

2352
01:58:03,680 --> 01:58:06,880
Speaker 4: only pay you back if the entire world economy looks

2353
01:58:06,880 --> 01:58:08,040
Speaker 4: like it's going to die.

2354
01:58:08,480 --> 01:58:11,160
Speaker 21: I feel like at that point the government should just

2355
01:58:11,160 --> 01:58:11,760
Speaker 21: just step back.

2356
01:58:11,880 --> 01:58:16,080
Speaker 4: And here's the thing, here's the thing, right, I I

2357
01:58:16,080 --> 01:58:18,400
Speaker 4: I yeah, Like I'm so dowt with this, Like yeah,

2358
01:58:18,400 --> 01:58:20,320
Speaker 4: I don't know. Fuck it, Like every single one of

2359
01:58:20,360 --> 01:58:22,720
Speaker 4: your motherfuckers is gonna pay this off by working as

2360
01:58:22,720 --> 01:58:25,840
Speaker 4: a barista for thirty years, Like fuck you. But the

2361
01:58:25,880 --> 01:58:28,520
Speaker 4: government was like, nah, we want like we want capitalism

2362
01:58:28,560 --> 01:58:29,160
Speaker 4: to keep working.

2363
01:58:29,280 --> 01:58:31,960
Speaker 21: Make every hedge fund manager work at a waffle house.

2364
01:58:32,080 --> 01:58:44,200
Speaker 22: Yeah, fuck them.

2365
01:58:44,320 --> 01:58:46,400
Speaker 4: Okay, I'm gonna say something and then I'm gonna.

2366
01:58:46,200 --> 01:58:47,680
Speaker 21: Make a disclaim.

2367
01:58:48,080 --> 01:58:51,040
Speaker 4: So the kind of shadow banks that did two thousand

2368
01:58:51,080 --> 01:58:55,880
Speaker 4: and eight work in the opposite direction. They start with debt,

2369
01:58:56,160 --> 01:58:59,080
Speaker 4: they take that debt, and they turn that debt into

2370
01:58:59,160 --> 01:59:01,600
Speaker 4: like cash, right.

2371
01:59:02,160 --> 01:59:02,840
Speaker 21: Can I do that?

2372
01:59:03,320 --> 01:59:03,400
Speaker 11: No?

2373
01:59:05,200 --> 01:59:06,960
Speaker 21: Does that work for me at my hed No?

2374
01:59:07,760 --> 01:59:09,960
Speaker 4: So okay, And I also want to mention there's a

2375
01:59:09,960 --> 01:59:12,000
Speaker 4: bunch of other kinds of shadow banks. The kind of

2376
01:59:12,040 --> 01:59:14,920
Speaker 4: shadow bank that's going under right now is not really this.

2377
01:59:15,720 --> 01:59:18,320
Speaker 4: The kind of shadow bank that's like exploding right now

2378
01:59:18,440 --> 01:59:21,040
Speaker 4: is a kind of shadow bank that's like what if

2379
01:59:21,040 --> 01:59:24,880
Speaker 4: a bank that wasn't a bank gave a completely unregulated

2380
01:59:24,960 --> 01:59:29,400
Speaker 4: loan with secret terms to a corporation, And that's the

2381
01:59:29,400 --> 01:59:32,400
Speaker 4: one that's going under right now, but for a long

2382
01:59:32,440 --> 01:59:34,280
Speaker 4: long time, the kind of shadow bank that was really

2383
01:59:34,280 --> 01:59:36,800
Speaker 4: important to the global economy. And this is still like

2384
01:59:36,880 --> 01:59:39,920
Speaker 4: a massive portion of how all of the economic system

2385
01:59:39,960 --> 01:59:43,480
Speaker 4: works is these ones where you're trying to take debt

2386
01:59:43,600 --> 01:59:47,720
Speaker 4: and turn it into something you can trade for cash. So, okay,

2387
01:59:48,000 --> 01:59:50,800
Speaker 4: you take debt, right, you start off with a mortgage. Okay,

2388
01:59:50,880 --> 01:59:54,080
Speaker 4: so these mortgagees pay out over the extremely long term, right,

2389
01:59:54,480 --> 01:59:56,959
Speaker 4: but you want to be able to trade this mortgage

2390
01:59:57,000 --> 02:00:01,000
Speaker 4: for cash. Right, And this is a process called securitization.

2391
02:00:01,880 --> 02:00:04,200
Speaker 4: Turning this mortgage into something you can sell for cash

2392
02:00:04,280 --> 02:00:08,600
Speaker 4: is making it into what's called a security. So now

2393
02:00:08,720 --> 02:00:11,280
Speaker 4: what happens right when his packaged this is into a

2394
02:00:11,320 --> 02:00:13,960
Speaker 4: security when there's a securitization process. And then like the

2395
02:00:14,000 --> 02:00:17,040
Speaker 4: regular bank, the regular bank sends the mortgage to the

2396
02:00:17,080 --> 02:00:21,560
Speaker 4: shadow bank, and the shadow bank like does like stuff

2397
02:00:21,600 --> 02:00:24,520
Speaker 4: and turns it into a security. And now what this

2398
02:00:24,600 --> 02:00:26,960
Speaker 4: means is that instead if you who paid the mortgage

2399
02:00:27,000 --> 02:00:29,200
Speaker 4: owing money to the bank, you own it to the

2400
02:00:29,240 --> 02:00:31,800
Speaker 4: shadow bank or whoever the fuck the shadow bank sells

2401
02:00:31,800 --> 02:00:31,960
Speaker 4: it to.

2402
02:00:32,120 --> 02:00:35,760
Speaker 21: Right, Okay, so the real bank is involved. The real

2403
02:00:35,800 --> 02:00:37,160
Speaker 21: bank is involved.

2404
02:00:36,800 --> 02:00:38,920
Speaker 4: Yes, oh yes, the real bank is making so much

2405
02:00:38,920 --> 02:00:40,960
Speaker 4: money off of this is this is why two thousand

2406
02:00:40,960 --> 02:00:41,520
Speaker 4: and eight happened.

2407
02:00:41,760 --> 02:00:44,840
Speaker 21: Oh, because Wells Fargo did this with everybody's mortgage. Oh yeah,

2408
02:00:44,840 --> 02:00:47,040
Speaker 21: oh yeah, okay, because I couldn't figure out because said,

2409
02:00:47,040 --> 02:00:48,120
Speaker 21: this is a two thousand names, and I was like,

2410
02:00:48,160 --> 02:00:50,160
Speaker 21: I thought, Wells Fargo did that, that's a real bank.

2411
02:00:50,440 --> 02:00:52,440
Speaker 21: Oh the real bank was shadow banking.

2412
02:00:52,560 --> 02:00:56,360
Speaker 4: The real bank figured out a way to sell their mortgages.

2413
02:00:56,880 --> 02:00:59,440
Speaker 4: And it's gonna get much worse as we go through this.

2414
02:00:59,800 --> 02:01:02,640
Speaker 4: But that's what causes this, right, is like turning is

2415
02:01:02,720 --> 02:01:07,160
Speaker 4: turning these mortgages into these like securities and like these

2416
02:01:07,200 --> 02:01:11,320
Speaker 4: like collateralized debt obligations and these like special packaged bullshit

2417
02:01:11,320 --> 02:01:13,440
Speaker 4: that you could sell to someone. So the way I

2418
02:01:13,440 --> 02:01:16,040
Speaker 4: would describe this is it's like, do you know how

2419
02:01:16,080 --> 02:01:16,920
Speaker 4: a bond works?

2420
02:01:17,200 --> 02:01:18,760
Speaker 21: Honestly, Mia, I do not.

2421
02:01:20,680 --> 02:01:23,720
Speaker 4: Okay, let's let's do this. We can we can do this, okay.

2422
02:01:23,760 --> 02:01:26,480
Speaker 4: So the kind of bond that you are normally likely

2423
02:01:26,520 --> 02:01:29,920
Speaker 4: to encounter is a government bond. Yeah, okay, So you

2424
02:01:29,920 --> 02:01:33,680
Speaker 4: you pay the government money to buy the bond, and

2425
02:01:33,800 --> 02:01:36,200
Speaker 4: what the bond says is, at a certain point in time,

2426
02:01:36,800 --> 02:01:39,040
Speaker 4: you hand it back to the government and they pay

2427
02:01:39,080 --> 02:01:39,720
Speaker 4: you more money.

2428
02:01:39,800 --> 02:01:41,120
Speaker 21: Right, it's like a promise for later.

2429
02:01:41,440 --> 02:01:44,840
Speaker 4: Yeah. Right, So it's it's basically a loan, but it's

2430
02:01:44,880 --> 02:01:48,680
Speaker 4: alone in a form where like the government's technically like

2431
02:01:48,800 --> 02:01:51,760
Speaker 4: selling it. And and then the other thing about bonds,

2432
02:01:51,800 --> 02:01:54,600
Speaker 4: right is if you hand the bond to someone else,

2433
02:01:55,400 --> 02:01:57,040
Speaker 4: well okay, I mean this is technically bare bonds, but

2434
02:01:57,040 --> 02:02:00,680
Speaker 4: like you you can then give the bond to someone

2435
02:02:00,680 --> 02:02:02,960
Speaker 4: else and now and now if they give it back

2436
02:02:02,960 --> 02:02:04,920
Speaker 4: to the government, they get the money in like ten years,

2437
02:02:04,920 --> 02:02:05,880
Speaker 4: they get the money.

2438
02:02:05,640 --> 02:02:07,000
Speaker 21: Right, right, Okay, I get that.

2439
02:02:07,360 --> 02:02:09,320
Speaker 4: And you can sell these things. And this is what

2440
02:02:09,360 --> 02:02:12,680
Speaker 4: these people are doing with mortgages.

2441
02:02:12,840 --> 02:02:15,440
Speaker 21: That's not as like secured as like a government bond.

2442
02:02:15,440 --> 02:02:17,080
Speaker 21: Because if I had one hundred dollars government, like, if

2443
02:02:17,080 --> 02:02:19,400
Speaker 21: I have one hundred dollar bearers bond, I know for

2444
02:02:19,520 --> 02:02:21,600
Speaker 21: a fact on the date on the bond, it's gonna

2445
02:02:21,600 --> 02:02:22,600
Speaker 21: be worth one hundred dollars.

2446
02:02:22,720 --> 02:02:24,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, they're gonna pay out, right.

2447
02:02:24,400 --> 02:02:28,400
Speaker 21: But if it's mortgage mortgage, the government's gonna pay it.

2448
02:02:28,440 --> 02:02:31,200
Speaker 21: But like the mortgage, the governy has them work. That's

2449
02:02:31,240 --> 02:02:34,080
Speaker 21: not yep, that's not real. That's not money. Nope, yep,

2450
02:02:34,200 --> 02:02:35,880
Speaker 21: that's like that's a that's a promise. But like my

2451
02:02:35,920 --> 02:02:36,960
Speaker 21: hand it's behind my back.

2452
02:02:37,320 --> 02:02:40,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it's a shit show. And this whole process

2453
02:02:40,720 --> 02:02:42,480
Speaker 4: is the largest sort of I'm not sure if it's

2454
02:02:42,480 --> 02:02:45,160
Speaker 4: actually the largest that I would need to actually get

2455
02:02:45,480 --> 02:02:48,920
Speaker 4: I've never I haven't seen in death breakdown sectorially, but like.

2456
02:02:48,880 --> 02:02:49,760
Speaker 21: None of this is real.

2457
02:02:49,800 --> 02:02:52,360
Speaker 4: You could just say whatever, this this is one of

2458
02:02:52,400 --> 02:02:55,600
Speaker 4: the most important kind of shadow banks because in order

2459
02:02:55,640 --> 02:02:59,000
Speaker 4: to turn this mortgage into security, the moment you do that,

2460
02:02:59,080 --> 02:03:01,960
Speaker 4: you do this by creating what's called a special purpose vehicle,

2461
02:03:02,080 --> 02:03:04,960
Speaker 4: or someone else creates one. It's called a special purpose vehicle. Yeah,

2462
02:03:04,960 --> 02:03:06,960
Speaker 4: it's it's a nightmare. It's a nightmare.

2463
02:03:07,680 --> 02:03:09,720
Speaker 21: Gonna I'm gonna put this mortgage on a roller coaster.

2464
02:03:10,080 --> 02:03:13,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's fucking ridiculous. Right, it's a special purpose vehicle.

2465
02:03:13,840 --> 02:03:16,480
Speaker 4: Is it does a loopy loop. But the moment you

2466
02:03:16,520 --> 02:03:18,400
Speaker 4: create one of these, that the moment you create one

2467
02:03:18,400 --> 02:03:22,080
Speaker 4: of these like security mortgages, right, that's a shadow bank.

2468
02:03:22,440 --> 02:03:23,960
Speaker 4: You've created a shadow bank, right.

2469
02:03:23,800 --> 02:03:25,800
Speaker 21: Because that's not real banking. That's shadow bank.

2470
02:03:26,000 --> 02:03:28,480
Speaker 4: Yep. Because because you're creating another entity that is not

2471
02:03:28,560 --> 02:03:30,680
Speaker 4: a bank that's doing the banking stuff.

2472
02:03:30,960 --> 02:03:32,880
Speaker 21: I thought that the banking and the shadow banking were

2473
02:03:32,920 --> 02:03:36,360
Speaker 21: like separate things, right, because it's shadow. It's like they're

2474
02:03:36,360 --> 02:03:41,160
Speaker 21: doing non they're all in. If the bank is just

2475
02:03:41,240 --> 02:03:44,360
Speaker 21: a shadow banking, I would I'm stupid, but I would

2476
02:03:44,360 --> 02:03:45,200
Speaker 21: call that a crime.

2477
02:03:45,800 --> 02:03:48,040
Speaker 4: This is this is another thing that costs two thousand

2478
02:03:48,040 --> 02:03:50,080
Speaker 4: and eight because a bunch of what was isn't a

2479
02:03:50,080 --> 02:03:54,080
Speaker 4: crime because our country is run by the bourgeoisie. Molly

2480
02:03:54,200 --> 02:03:55,480
Speaker 4: that that's why it's not a crime.

2481
02:03:55,640 --> 02:03:57,200
Speaker 21: You're just telling me this for the first time.

2482
02:03:58,120 --> 02:04:01,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's bad. So, so what happened? What happened in

2483
02:04:01,320 --> 02:04:02,840
Speaker 4: two thousand and eight. One of the things that happened,

2484
02:04:02,920 --> 02:04:05,320
Speaker 4: right is so all of these regulators are supposed to

2485
02:04:05,360 --> 02:04:07,640
Speaker 4: be looking at the balance sheets of these companies.

2486
02:04:07,320 --> 02:04:09,600
Speaker 21: But they're hiding stuff off the books.

2487
02:04:09,880 --> 02:04:12,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, they were hiding these things in these like special

2488
02:04:12,320 --> 02:04:14,760
Speaker 4: purpose vehicles, like in these like shadow banks.

2489
02:04:14,800 --> 02:04:17,160
Speaker 21: They didn't open the trunks on the special purpose vehicles.

2490
02:04:17,440 --> 02:04:19,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, so no one could see the fucking dead bodies

2491
02:04:19,160 --> 02:04:21,320
Speaker 4: in the trunks of the vehicles because they weren't on

2492
02:04:21,400 --> 02:04:23,480
Speaker 4: the balance sheet that like the government had access to.

2493
02:04:23,720 --> 02:04:25,240
Speaker 21: What's the point of the balance sheet if you don't

2494
02:04:25,240 --> 02:04:26,400
Speaker 21: put the whole balance on it.

2495
02:04:27,640 --> 02:04:31,280
Speaker 4: I'm fucking I don't know. And this is like legitimately

2496
02:04:31,480 --> 02:04:34,680
Speaker 4: when you read the accounts of like why shadow making

2497
02:04:34,720 --> 02:04:36,720
Speaker 4: US exploded by the way it's exploded in two thousand

2498
02:04:36,760 --> 02:04:38,960
Speaker 4: and eight, it's like way bigger exploded.

2499
02:04:38,480 --> 02:04:41,640
Speaker 21: Like in popularity or like exploded as in like distrubularity.

2500
02:04:41,800 --> 02:04:43,480
Speaker 4: There's so much there's so much more of it. There's

2501
02:04:43,520 --> 02:04:44,800
Speaker 4: so much more of it because.

2502
02:04:44,600 --> 02:04:47,160
Speaker 21: Also, oh, because it went so well, it went so

2503
02:04:47,240 --> 02:04:48,440
Speaker 21: well in two thousand and eight, and now.

2504
02:04:48,400 --> 02:04:51,040
Speaker 4: We're because here's the thing. After two thousand and eight,

2505
02:04:51,120 --> 02:04:54,080
Speaker 4: we got like a little tiny bit of banking regulation

2506
02:04:54,440 --> 02:04:57,520
Speaker 4: and the banks lost their fucking minds, and so more

2507
02:04:57,560 --> 02:05:00,880
Speaker 4: and more money went into all of these unhidden shadow

2508
02:05:00,920 --> 02:05:01,440
Speaker 4: making things.

2509
02:05:01,520 --> 02:05:03,520
Speaker 21: Okay, but so like when a toddler has a tantrum,

2510
02:05:03,560 --> 02:05:05,240
Speaker 21: you don't give them a billion dollars.

2511
02:05:05,640 --> 02:05:08,200
Speaker 4: When the shadow banks went under, these things were not

2512
02:05:08,200 --> 02:05:10,080
Speaker 4: backed by the government. The government bailed them out anyways.

2513
02:05:10,120 --> 02:05:12,120
Speaker 21: Yeah, they didn't have to do that, Nope. So they

2514
02:05:12,160 --> 02:05:14,560
Speaker 21: really they learned their lesson. They really learned their lesson

2515
02:05:14,600 --> 02:05:15,080
Speaker 21: this time.

2516
02:05:15,360 --> 02:05:17,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, Like they bailed out these banks and they fucking

2517
02:05:17,760 --> 02:05:20,560
Speaker 4: sold you out, and like you know, like and one

2518
02:05:20,600 --> 02:05:22,480
Speaker 4: of the things that I think people have forgotten was

2519
02:05:22,480 --> 02:05:25,320
Speaker 4: there's this thing called robocalls during the Obama administration. Right,

2520
02:05:25,800 --> 02:05:29,080
Speaker 4: part of how the financial recovery happened was that all

2521
02:05:29,160 --> 02:05:33,440
Speaker 4: these banks would like go to courthouses, right, and they

2522
02:05:33,480 --> 02:05:37,560
Speaker 4: would just repossess mortgages on Mass. Oh. And they had

2523
02:05:37,560 --> 02:05:39,560
Speaker 4: like a robot that was like signed it. It would

2524
02:05:39,600 --> 02:05:42,240
Speaker 4: just sign like a blank check sign off on all

2525
02:05:42,280 --> 02:05:45,320
Speaker 4: these mortgages that were supposed to be underwater. And they

2526
02:05:45,320 --> 02:05:47,880
Speaker 4: would just steal people's houses, people who were on top

2527
02:05:47,920 --> 02:05:49,800
Speaker 4: of their payments, people who liked to know money. They

2528
02:05:49,840 --> 02:05:52,680
Speaker 4: would just take their houses. And this happened on Mass

2529
02:05:52,680 --> 02:05:55,520
Speaker 4: And this is like how the banks recovered, was they

2530
02:05:55,560 --> 02:05:56,520
Speaker 4: stole everyone's houses.

2531
02:05:56,560 --> 02:05:59,280
Speaker 21: And that's a crime, right, It should have been a crime.

2532
02:06:00,120 --> 02:06:02,040
Speaker 4: It was illegal. It didn't matter though.

2533
02:06:01,920 --> 02:06:04,680
Speaker 21: Because everything you're describing to me as a crime.

2534
02:06:04,520 --> 02:06:06,880
Speaker 4: It's so nightmarish. Well, it's here the thing most of

2535
02:06:06,880 --> 02:06:09,280
Speaker 4: this of them describing is not a crime. This was

2536
02:06:09,360 --> 02:06:10,280
Speaker 4: actually a crime.

2537
02:06:10,400 --> 02:06:12,360
Speaker 21: But why is nobody in jail?

2538
02:06:12,640 --> 02:06:15,120
Speaker 4: Because Barack Obama went up in front of these people

2539
02:06:15,200 --> 02:06:17,120
Speaker 4: and said, I am the only thing standing between you

2540
02:06:17,200 --> 02:06:19,560
Speaker 4: and the guillotines. I'm pretty sure that's a direct quote.

2541
02:06:19,600 --> 02:06:21,440
Speaker 21: And why didn't he bring the guillotine with.

2542
02:06:21,440 --> 02:06:23,839
Speaker 4: Him because he wants the capital assistant to continue.

2543
02:06:23,920 --> 02:06:29,280
Speaker 21: I mean, question, Obama, I'm just upset.

2544
02:06:29,400 --> 02:06:32,480
Speaker 4: It's not good. Okay, So let's let's get you another

2545
02:06:32,560 --> 02:06:34,400
Speaker 4: question that you asked, which is why why would you

2546
02:06:34,480 --> 02:06:36,360
Speaker 4: do this? Why would you do this.

2547
02:06:36,600 --> 02:06:37,440
Speaker 21: To make money?

2548
02:06:37,720 --> 02:06:41,240
Speaker 4: Yes, but it's actually more complicated than that. Oh okay.

2549
02:06:41,280 --> 02:06:44,600
Speaker 4: So on the one hand, these assets, you know, a mortgage,

2550
02:06:44,640 --> 02:06:47,200
Speaker 4: does make more money than just putting your money in

2551
02:06:47,240 --> 02:06:50,240
Speaker 4: the bank. Right, that's like the basis of banking is

2552
02:06:50,280 --> 02:06:52,360
Speaker 4: that they can use your money that's sitting in the

2553
02:06:52,360 --> 02:06:54,200
Speaker 4: bank and getting interested, and then they make more money

2554
02:06:54,200 --> 02:06:55,160
Speaker 4: by spending it elsewhere.

2555
02:06:55,440 --> 02:06:57,360
Speaker 21: But so they're just doing this because they hate us,

2556
02:06:57,560 --> 02:07:00,960
Speaker 21: not just to make money. No, there is an actual explanation.

2557
02:07:01,080 --> 02:07:01,920
Speaker 21: There's a third reason.

2558
02:07:02,480 --> 02:07:05,280
Speaker 4: So then why why would you ever have your money

2559
02:07:05,360 --> 02:07:08,040
Speaker 4: in a bank or like buy something like safe like

2560
02:07:08,080 --> 02:07:11,040
Speaker 4: government bonds you can sell really quickly, right, Why why

2561
02:07:11,160 --> 02:07:15,560
Speaker 4: would you ever want that? And the reason why is

2562
02:07:15,560 --> 02:07:16,720
Speaker 4: something called liquidity?

2563
02:07:17,280 --> 02:07:17,440
Speaker 22: Right?

2564
02:07:17,480 --> 02:07:19,200
Speaker 21: You want to be able to spend the money, yes,

2565
02:07:19,320 --> 02:07:21,560
Speaker 21: rather than wait thirty years for it to get paid back.

2566
02:07:21,760 --> 02:07:24,600
Speaker 4: Yes. Liquidity is just how easy is it to turn

2567
02:07:24,880 --> 02:07:26,240
Speaker 4: whatever you own into cash?

2568
02:07:26,360 --> 02:07:26,520
Speaker 2: Right?

2569
02:07:26,640 --> 02:07:28,680
Speaker 21: For real money, because most of it we're talking about

2570
02:07:28,800 --> 02:07:30,840
Speaker 21: is not money. It's the idea of money.

2571
02:07:31,720 --> 02:07:35,640
Speaker 4: Yes, so, so liquidity is is literally it's the burger test,

2572
02:07:35,720 --> 02:07:37,400
Speaker 4: right can you buy a burger with this?

2573
02:07:37,640 --> 02:07:38,400
Speaker 21: Can I eat this?

2574
02:07:39,320 --> 02:07:39,640
Speaker 2: Money?

2575
02:07:39,720 --> 02:07:41,920
Speaker 4: Is like the most liquid asset, right because you can?

2576
02:07:41,960 --> 02:07:43,440
Speaker 4: You can? You can turn this into a burger?

2577
02:07:43,560 --> 02:07:45,440
Speaker 21: Right, So liquidity is the only part of this that's

2578
02:07:45,440 --> 02:07:47,320
Speaker 21: actually money. Everything else is not money.

2579
02:07:47,760 --> 02:07:51,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, Well, liquidity is the measure of how money is it? Basically,

2580
02:07:52,000 --> 02:07:54,080
Speaker 4: like how easy is it to turn this into burger?

2581
02:07:54,400 --> 02:07:59,360
Speaker 21: Is this a special vehicle securitization? It's not real mea.

2582
02:07:59,760 --> 02:08:03,120
Speaker 4: No, it's fake as shit, right, this is not that complicated,

2583
02:08:03,240 --> 02:08:05,600
Speaker 4: right if you if it's like like you can you

2584
02:08:05,640 --> 02:08:08,600
Speaker 4: can buy a burger with ten dollars? Yeah right, that's liquid.

2585
02:08:08,680 --> 02:08:10,280
Speaker 21: Actually you kind of can't these days.

2586
02:08:10,680 --> 02:08:17,520
Speaker 4: I know, I look, I look. I imagine a world

2587
02:08:17,560 --> 02:08:19,520
Speaker 4: where you can buy a burger for ten dollars.

2588
02:08:20,680 --> 02:08:22,080
Speaker 21: Imagine imagine a burger.

2589
02:08:21,880 --> 02:08:25,800
Speaker 4: Yes, imagine a burger that's purchasable. Now, what you can't

2590
02:08:25,840 --> 02:08:29,560
Speaker 4: buy a burger with is like the ten bucks that

2591
02:08:30,000 --> 02:08:33,080
Speaker 4: a guy you work with owes you for buying him.

2592
02:08:32,920 --> 02:08:35,120
Speaker 21: A burger depends on how well you know the burger guy.

2593
02:08:35,880 --> 02:08:40,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, but that's that's where things get bad. Yeah, right, now,

2594
02:08:40,680 --> 02:08:42,680
Speaker 4: the thing is right, right, So the ten bucks the

2595
02:08:42,720 --> 02:08:46,520
Speaker 4: guy you work with, like owes, you not liquid. You

2596
02:08:46,520 --> 02:08:48,080
Speaker 4: don't have the money in your hands, and if you

2597
02:08:48,120 --> 02:08:49,960
Speaker 4: want to get it from him, you have to like

2598
02:08:50,480 --> 02:08:52,320
Speaker 4: go ask him for the money, and maybe he has

2599
02:08:52,360 --> 02:08:54,520
Speaker 4: ten bucks and maybe he doesn't, right, at which point

2600
02:08:54,600 --> 02:08:57,040
Speaker 4: you can't get your ten dollars back until he has

2601
02:08:57,080 --> 02:08:57,480
Speaker 4: the money.

2602
02:08:57,520 --> 02:09:00,240
Speaker 21: But that but then ten dollars that I'm theoretically code

2603
02:09:00,360 --> 02:09:05,120
Speaker 21: is an asset though I have not a debt. Yes, okay, yes,

2604
02:09:05,600 --> 02:09:06,360
Speaker 21: it's stupid.

2605
02:09:06,480 --> 02:09:09,720
Speaker 4: Now loans loans are not liquid assets, right, and they're

2606
02:09:09,720 --> 02:09:11,520
Speaker 4: not liquid assets because you can't get the money back

2607
02:09:11,720 --> 02:09:12,360
Speaker 4: like immediately.

2608
02:09:12,640 --> 02:09:14,560
Speaker 21: So I don't have ten dollars I can spend, but

2609
02:09:14,600 --> 02:09:17,080
Speaker 21: on paper, I do have ten theoretical dollars.

2610
02:09:17,360 --> 02:09:19,280
Speaker 4: Yeah right, And this is also like most of what

2611
02:09:19,360 --> 02:09:22,080
Speaker 4: billionaire money is, hey, correct, Like most of their money

2612
02:09:22,160 --> 02:09:24,640
Speaker 4: is like in like a stock or some shit or

2613
02:09:24,680 --> 02:09:26,160
Speaker 4: like it's weird fake money.

2614
02:09:26,320 --> 02:09:28,600
Speaker 21: Like theoretically they could access this amount of money, but

2615
02:09:28,600 --> 02:09:30,320
Speaker 21: they don't have it. Yeah, it's not real.

2616
02:09:30,600 --> 02:09:33,680
Speaker 4: Now, Okay, there is this question, So why why would

2617
02:09:33,760 --> 02:09:35,960
Speaker 4: you keep your money in fake money instead of real money.

2618
02:09:36,200 --> 02:09:38,960
Speaker 4: And the answer is that it gives you more money

2619
02:09:39,000 --> 02:09:42,680
Speaker 4: back because say you're an asshole, right, and you're charging

2620
02:09:42,840 --> 02:09:45,440
Speaker 4: interest on your coworker for that burger loan.

2621
02:09:45,400 --> 02:09:47,560
Speaker 21: Right, So that ten dollars is actually worth more than

2622
02:09:47,560 --> 02:09:50,120
Speaker 21: ten dollars money. So the ten dollars that I don't

2623
02:09:50,160 --> 02:09:52,440
Speaker 21: have is theoretically worth Twell.

2624
02:09:52,440 --> 02:09:54,880
Speaker 4: You're worth more. Yeah, it's worth more than the money

2625
02:09:54,920 --> 02:09:55,400
Speaker 4: that you do have.

2626
02:09:55,520 --> 02:09:58,560
Speaker 21: I can get cheese on the burger, yes, right.

2627
02:10:00,080 --> 02:10:02,560
Speaker 4: And this is this is like the fundamental thing of

2628
02:10:02,560 --> 02:10:04,720
Speaker 4: the banking system, Like one of them is that I

2629
02:10:04,800 --> 02:10:08,040
Speaker 4: liquid assets or like assets that you that aren't money

2630
02:10:08,080 --> 02:10:09,839
Speaker 4: are worth more than money.

2631
02:10:10,560 --> 02:10:13,000
Speaker 21: I guess. Like when I put a small amount of

2632
02:10:13,000 --> 02:10:16,640
Speaker 21: my savings into a CD, that's what I'm doing, except

2633
02:10:16,640 --> 02:10:18,600
Speaker 21: normal style they're doing it weird.

2634
02:10:18,920 --> 02:10:21,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, basically because that's like.

2635
02:10:21,040 --> 02:10:23,840
Speaker 21: An I liquid asset that I'm I'm I'm trading the

2636
02:10:23,840 --> 02:10:27,120
Speaker 21: ability to access that liquidity for the potential of more

2637
02:10:27,160 --> 02:10:27,640
Speaker 21: money later.

2638
02:10:27,680 --> 02:10:29,080
Speaker 4: Wait, so when you say, do you mean like a

2639
02:10:29,200 --> 02:10:31,080
Speaker 4: like a physical like a disc, like a CD.

2640
02:10:31,480 --> 02:10:33,960
Speaker 21: No, a CD like at the bank, Like yeah, yeah,

2641
02:10:34,120 --> 02:10:37,400
Speaker 21: like the investment product, Yeah sure, yeah, yes, sorry, I

2642
02:10:37,440 --> 02:10:39,960
Speaker 21: was like, no, I'm not talking about buying compact disc.

2643
02:10:40,200 --> 02:10:42,520
Speaker 4: I would just leave at five am this time.

2644
02:10:43,040 --> 02:10:45,120
Speaker 21: It's been ever heard of it.

2645
02:10:45,320 --> 02:10:49,440
Speaker 4: Wow, there's there's actually a really an annoying thing researching

2646
02:10:49,440 --> 02:10:52,880
Speaker 4: this episode because there's like, so CDOs are like a

2647
02:10:52,920 --> 02:10:54,680
Speaker 4: type of loan that will kind of get you in

2648
02:10:54,680 --> 02:10:57,080
Speaker 4: a bit. But there's also a tech position called CDO.

2649
02:10:57,560 --> 02:10:59,560
Speaker 4: It's like chief something.

2650
02:10:59,240 --> 02:11:01,200
Speaker 21: Office officer who cares.

2651
02:11:01,360 --> 02:11:03,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, whatever the fuck? Right, But like when you're trying

2652
02:11:03,440 --> 02:11:07,080
Speaker 4: to search for stuff that's like about CDOs, right, the

2653
02:11:07,120 --> 02:11:11,040
Speaker 4: other one keeps coming up. I hate it. Okay, okay,

2654
02:11:11,080 --> 02:11:14,560
Speaker 4: locking in, locking in right, lock and load. Now what

2655
02:11:14,720 --> 02:11:17,400
Speaker 4: if you both want into more money and also the

2656
02:11:17,440 --> 02:11:18,520
Speaker 4: ability to buy a burger?

2657
02:11:18,960 --> 02:11:22,440
Speaker 21: I guess I would uh probably break one of Carl's fingers.

2658
02:11:23,040 --> 02:11:25,080
Speaker 21: This is the guy that owes me the ten dollars, Carl.

2659
02:11:25,400 --> 02:11:29,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, but even then it's hard to even that's like,

2660
02:11:29,800 --> 02:11:31,240
Speaker 4: this is too hard for these people.

2661
02:11:31,360 --> 02:11:33,280
Speaker 21: I would go to Carl's house and kick him out

2662
02:11:33,320 --> 02:11:33,520
Speaker 21: of it.

2663
02:11:34,040 --> 02:11:36,360
Speaker 4: Well yeah, so, but the other thing is like, you

2664
02:11:36,440 --> 02:11:39,120
Speaker 4: are not very rich, okay these people. If you are

2665
02:11:39,560 --> 02:11:42,880
Speaker 4: really really rich, I am talking like billionaires, maybe like

2666
02:11:42,960 --> 02:11:46,360
Speaker 4: high high class multimillionaires. Well you can go to a

2667
02:11:46,400 --> 02:11:47,040
Speaker 4: shadow bank.

2668
02:11:47,720 --> 02:11:50,720
Speaker 21: Oh right, you can get a loan based on the loan.

2669
02:11:51,200 --> 02:11:53,400
Speaker 4: No, well you're saying. So the thing is that you

2670
02:11:53,600 --> 02:11:57,120
Speaker 4: have money, right, but you want to turn your money

2671
02:11:57,160 --> 02:11:59,880
Speaker 4: into more money, like you have like an actual cash,

2672
02:12:00,280 --> 02:12:03,440
Speaker 4: right like you are you are, for example, a pension fund.

2673
02:12:03,560 --> 02:12:06,400
Speaker 4: No I'm not. You have a shit ton of cash.

2674
02:12:06,600 --> 02:12:10,040
Speaker 4: Or imagine imagine a pension fund. Right, This is okay.

2675
02:12:10,080 --> 02:12:11,880
Speaker 4: This is also really hard because it used to be

2676
02:12:11,920 --> 02:12:14,320
Speaker 4: easier to explain this because like we used to live

2677
02:12:14,320 --> 02:12:16,880
Speaker 4: in a world where people had pension funds and had mortgages,

2678
02:12:17,280 --> 02:12:20,120
Speaker 4: and now we no longer have pension funds or mortgages.

2679
02:12:21,040 --> 02:12:23,000
Speaker 21: I live in an apartment and I will always live

2680
02:12:23,040 --> 02:12:23,680
Speaker 21: in an apartment.

2681
02:12:24,320 --> 02:12:24,600
Speaker 2: Yeah.

2682
02:12:24,720 --> 02:12:27,800
Speaker 4: No, and still okay, So, like imagine imagine a pension fund,

2683
02:12:27,880 --> 02:12:30,320
Speaker 4: right you you have a shit ton of money from

2684
02:12:30,360 --> 02:12:33,880
Speaker 4: your members paying into the fund, but it's cash. You

2685
02:12:33,920 --> 02:12:36,320
Speaker 4: need to turn that cash into more money. But also

2686
02:12:36,840 --> 02:12:39,400
Speaker 4: you're a pension fund, so you constantly have to take

2687
02:12:39,440 --> 02:12:41,960
Speaker 4: money back out in order to pay the people who

2688
02:12:42,000 --> 02:12:43,080
Speaker 4: are retiring.

2689
02:12:42,680 --> 02:12:43,680
Speaker 21: To pay old right.

2690
02:12:43,760 --> 02:12:45,880
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, and this is also a thing that like,

2691
02:12:45,920 --> 02:12:47,800
Speaker 4: you know, if you're just like a rich person. Sometimes

2692
02:12:47,840 --> 02:12:49,400
Speaker 4: you want your A lot of times you want your

2693
02:12:49,440 --> 02:12:52,840
Speaker 4: money in assets that are like you can you can

2694
02:12:52,880 --> 02:12:54,760
Speaker 4: turn back into real money, but also make you a

2695
02:12:54,760 --> 02:12:55,560
Speaker 4: shit ton of money.

2696
02:12:56,160 --> 02:12:57,920
Speaker 21: Right, They need to sort of revolve a little bit

2697
02:12:58,000 --> 02:13:00,920
Speaker 21: theyd be like yeah, I don't know, like a jello

2698
02:13:01,120 --> 02:13:02,200
Speaker 21: like partially liquid.

2699
02:13:02,480 --> 02:13:06,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, And this is this is what the shadow banks do, right,

2700
02:13:06,200 --> 02:13:08,640
Speaker 4: because the thing that you can buy is one of

2701
02:13:08,680 --> 02:13:12,160
Speaker 4: those mortgages they've turned into like a security. Right, you

2702
02:13:12,160 --> 02:13:15,200
Speaker 4: can go buy someone else's debt, huh, but because it's

2703
02:13:15,200 --> 02:13:18,520
Speaker 4: a magic security now, and these are called mortgage backed securities.

2704
02:13:18,560 --> 02:13:21,320
Speaker 4: And again if you're to remember, yeah, anything of anything

2705
02:13:21,360 --> 02:13:23,120
Speaker 4: about two thousand and eight, that's what blew up the

2706
02:13:23,160 --> 02:13:25,480
Speaker 4: whole economy, is these mortgage back securities.

2707
02:13:25,600 --> 02:13:27,920
Speaker 21: Yeah, I've heard of that because it was bad, yep,

2708
02:13:28,400 --> 02:13:30,680
Speaker 21: terrible idea. And so we're still doing that.

2709
02:13:31,120 --> 02:13:35,480
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, it's I mean if it's less specifically, the

2710
02:13:35,520 --> 02:13:37,720
Speaker 4: mortgage back ones are less bad. So they started doing

2711
02:13:37,800 --> 02:13:43,120
Speaker 4: it with like commercial retail loans, which is incredible, great,

2712
02:13:43,520 --> 02:13:46,600
Speaker 4: so that's really fun. They're also doing with other unhidden

2713
02:13:46,600 --> 02:13:49,200
Speaker 4: shit that we're gonna do like next episode. And what

2714
02:13:49,240 --> 02:13:52,000
Speaker 4: these people are really buying. Aren't just these Like you're

2715
02:13:52,000 --> 02:13:54,280
Speaker 4: not buying like one person's mortgage, right.

2716
02:13:54,160 --> 02:13:55,840
Speaker 21: Right, they're like pooled and like bundled.

2717
02:13:56,440 --> 02:13:58,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, they're like they bundle them all together and

2718
02:13:58,600 --> 02:14:02,280
Speaker 4: then you you buy the rights to a percentage of

2719
02:14:02,440 --> 02:14:02,880
Speaker 4: the pool.

2720
02:14:03,400 --> 02:14:05,760
Speaker 21: It's not like when you sponsor like an elephant in

2721
02:14:05,760 --> 02:14:07,480
Speaker 21: Africa or something, and they send you a picture of

2722
02:14:07,520 --> 02:14:09,520
Speaker 21: like a specific element, or they don't send you they

2723
02:14:09,520 --> 02:14:11,760
Speaker 21: listen to a picture of the family you're arming. No,

2724
02:14:12,800 --> 02:14:14,640
Speaker 21: these are the Joneses. You own their fucking house.

2725
02:14:14,720 --> 02:14:17,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it's it's it's it's it's a shit show. No, well,

2726
02:14:18,360 --> 02:14:20,040
Speaker 4: I mean eventually you might have to go figure out

2727
02:14:20,080 --> 02:14:22,480
Speaker 4: who that is because you like own whatever the fuck

2728
02:14:22,520 --> 02:14:25,920
Speaker 4: percentage of like the mortgages or whatever. But like, okay,

2729
02:14:26,360 --> 02:14:29,720
Speaker 4: so these are these are just like someone else's debt

2730
02:14:29,880 --> 02:14:32,800
Speaker 4: that you're buying, and that the people who can do

2731
02:14:32,840 --> 02:14:35,880
Speaker 4: this are, you know, people who have billions of dollars.

2732
02:14:35,920 --> 02:14:37,640
Speaker 4: It's not you, the listener. And by the way, if you,

2733
02:14:37,640 --> 02:14:40,360
Speaker 4: the listener, have billions of dollars lying around for some reason.

2734
02:14:40,320 --> 02:14:41,680
Speaker 21: Can I have some please?

2735
02:14:41,800 --> 02:14:44,080
Speaker 4: Yes, please please give me some of them so I

2736
02:14:44,120 --> 02:14:47,920
Speaker 4: can house Like literally every trans woman and like transperson

2737
02:14:48,000 --> 02:14:49,760
Speaker 4: I can, I can do it, Like, please give me

2738
02:14:49,800 --> 02:14:51,640
Speaker 4: your billions of dollars so I can. I can achieve

2739
02:14:51,640 --> 02:14:54,320
Speaker 4: this goal. But like we're talking about you know, like

2740
02:14:54,320 --> 02:14:57,200
Speaker 4: like the Pension Fund of California, we're talking about mega corporations,

2741
02:14:57,200 --> 02:14:59,440
Speaker 4: insurance companies, the kinds of things. I can actually buy these,

2742
02:14:59,520 --> 02:15:03,520
Speaker 4: like you know. Now, this is where we get to

2743
02:15:03,640 --> 02:15:06,080
Speaker 4: one of the other problems, which is that these things

2744
02:15:06,120 --> 02:15:12,160
Speaker 4: are not insured. So yeah, what do you do in

2745
02:15:12,280 --> 02:15:14,160
Speaker 4: order to try to make it less risky? What do

2746
02:15:14,240 --> 02:15:16,800
Speaker 4: you get if you can't pay the loan back? And

2747
02:15:16,880 --> 02:15:18,240
Speaker 4: this is what's called collateral.

2748
02:15:18,320 --> 02:15:19,840
Speaker 21: I don't know, swift punch in the nuts.

2749
02:15:20,120 --> 02:15:23,400
Speaker 4: Oh no, they take your house, right, Yes, that's supposed

2750
02:15:23,440 --> 02:15:25,760
Speaker 4: to be the thing. So okay, the way that like

2751
02:15:25,840 --> 02:15:30,600
Speaker 4: shadow banking loans tend to work is that they they

2752
02:15:30,640 --> 02:15:33,880
Speaker 4: have collateral, right, so you you give them something or

2753
02:15:34,160 --> 02:15:37,680
Speaker 4: or it's either you give them something directly or it's

2754
02:15:37,720 --> 02:15:39,920
Speaker 4: like if you promise to give them the thing. Yeah,

2755
02:15:39,960 --> 02:15:43,040
Speaker 4: and giving it to them directly is like a repo

2756
02:15:43,120 --> 02:15:45,080
Speaker 4: market thing. We're not really going to get into those

2757
02:15:45,400 --> 02:15:47,680
Speaker 4: right now, but this does. That's like that's also a

2758
02:15:47,760 --> 02:15:51,000
Speaker 4: kind of shadow bank. But there's a problem, right, which is,

2759
02:15:51,480 --> 02:15:54,680
Speaker 4: what if the thing that you're paying, you're paying as collateral, Like,

2760
02:15:54,720 --> 02:15:58,880
Speaker 4: what if your house becomes worthless? And what if? What if? Mully?

2761
02:15:59,040 --> 02:16:02,000
Speaker 21: And it's completely uninsured and there's no way to fix

2762
02:16:02,040 --> 02:16:03,680
Speaker 21: it because I don't even have anything to give.

2763
02:16:03,560 --> 02:16:08,240
Speaker 4: You now, Now, Molly, what if? And this is purely hypothetical,

2764
02:16:08,360 --> 02:16:10,520
Speaker 4: It could never happen in the real world, Molly. But

2765
02:16:10,640 --> 02:16:15,880
Speaker 4: what if somehow, someone someone decided to use the same

2766
02:16:16,160 --> 02:16:20,280
Speaker 4: house as collateral for multiple different securities.

2767
02:16:20,600 --> 02:16:21,760
Speaker 21: Well, that could never go wrong.

2768
02:16:22,120 --> 02:16:25,040
Speaker 4: What if, Mollie. They made a word for this that

2769
02:16:25,200 --> 02:16:27,680
Speaker 4: is so complicated I am not going to attempt to

2770
02:16:27,680 --> 02:16:29,720
Speaker 4: read it on the show. What if, Molly?

2771
02:16:30,000 --> 02:16:31,200
Speaker 21: What is it in German or something?

2772
02:16:31,240 --> 02:16:33,240
Speaker 4: No, it's like it's just like this, it's like the

2773
02:16:33,400 --> 02:16:35,480
Speaker 4: it's like the length of my head. It's like hyper

2774
02:16:35,840 --> 02:16:39,560
Speaker 4: hyper something bullshit. Like I refuse to say it because

2775
02:16:39,680 --> 02:16:43,280
Speaker 4: it is just like a completely like financed goal bullshit

2776
02:16:43,400 --> 02:16:44,160
Speaker 4: term they made up.

2777
02:16:44,600 --> 02:16:47,920
Speaker 21: So, but the point of the point of collateral is

2778
02:16:47,959 --> 02:16:51,080
Speaker 21: that you can use it to pay off the loan

2779
02:16:51,200 --> 02:16:54,320
Speaker 21: if you default on And so that literally won't work

2780
02:16:54,400 --> 02:16:57,840
Speaker 21: more than once, because once I eat the burger, once

2781
02:16:57,879 --> 02:17:00,920
Speaker 21: I eat the burger. It's bad. Yeah, and this is

2782
02:17:00,959 --> 02:17:02,720
Speaker 21: one of the things that happened in two thousand years.

2783
02:17:02,760 --> 02:17:05,520
Speaker 21: I can't promise I can't promise ten guys my burger.

2784
02:17:05,800 --> 02:17:08,959
Speaker 4: Now, Molly, here's the amazing thing here, right, because but

2785
02:17:09,160 --> 02:17:11,600
Speaker 4: the advantage for these companies, right is like, if you're

2786
02:17:11,640 --> 02:17:13,520
Speaker 4: the bank that has the mortgage, suddenly you can spin

2787
02:17:13,600 --> 02:17:16,520
Speaker 4: your mortgage off into like multiple securities that you can sell.

2788
02:17:16,600 --> 02:17:19,039
Speaker 21: Right, It's worth ten times more. And that's great for you.

2789
02:17:19,200 --> 02:17:25,640
Speaker 4: Yes, and comma, comma, we we haven't even okay, I

2790
02:17:25,760 --> 02:17:27,520
Speaker 4: just I just described to sister where these people are

2791
02:17:27,520 --> 02:17:30,840
Speaker 4: promising the same house to moustiple people. This isn't even

2792
02:17:30,959 --> 02:17:34,360
Speaker 4: the extremely unfathomably reckless and greedy shit. No it is,

2793
02:17:34,800 --> 02:17:37,200
Speaker 4: oh it is, but it's not the worst of it.

2794
02:17:37,320 --> 02:17:50,280
Speaker 4: Oh good, Okay, So do you remember that quote from

2795
02:17:50,320 --> 02:17:53,360
Speaker 4: when I was fiving the first definition of shadow banking, right,

2796
02:17:53,440 --> 02:17:56,560
Speaker 4: like I gave I gave, I gave this quote from

2797
02:17:56,560 --> 02:17:58,680
Speaker 4: the guy who invented the term where he called it

2798
02:17:59,160 --> 02:18:03,600
Speaker 4: quote the whole alphabet soup of leveraged up investment, conduits, vehicles,

2799
02:18:03,600 --> 02:18:06,480
Speaker 4: and structures. Right, So we've kind of talked about the

2800
02:18:06,480 --> 02:18:08,600
Speaker 4: conduits vehicles, and structures. Right, those are all of the

2801
02:18:08,600 --> 02:18:11,119
Speaker 4: shadow banks that like make the things right. I love

2802
02:18:11,160 --> 02:18:14,840
Speaker 4: the conduits, vehicles, and structures. Yeah, all the acronyms. But

2803
02:18:15,120 --> 02:18:16,840
Speaker 4: what does leveraged up mean?

2804
02:18:17,640 --> 02:18:17,840
Speaker 2: Now?

2805
02:18:18,440 --> 02:18:21,840
Speaker 4: Okay? In this case, it means that a bunch of

2806
02:18:21,879 --> 02:18:26,160
Speaker 4: these banks have taken out a shit ton of like risky,

2807
02:18:26,280 --> 02:18:28,840
Speaker 4: high interest loans in order to buy more of these

2808
02:18:28,879 --> 02:18:31,720
Speaker 4: fucking mortgages because they think they can make more money

2809
02:18:31,720 --> 02:18:32,080
Speaker 4: off of it.

2810
02:18:32,280 --> 02:18:35,800
Speaker 21: So they took out they took out loans to buy

2811
02:18:35,879 --> 02:18:38,960
Speaker 21: these unsecured securities.

2812
02:18:39,280 --> 02:18:44,440
Speaker 4: The regular ass banks were doing this. Yeah, they went

2813
02:18:44,520 --> 02:18:47,440
Speaker 4: into debt to buy more of these shitty mortgages.

2814
02:18:47,640 --> 02:18:50,720
Speaker 21: So they took out loans to buy what are essentially

2815
02:18:50,879 --> 02:18:52,560
Speaker 21: unsecured loans.

2816
02:18:52,640 --> 02:18:54,600
Speaker 4: Yep, because I thought it would make them more money.

2817
02:18:54,640 --> 02:19:00,560
Speaker 21: But there's no money involved. Money.

2818
02:19:00,600 --> 02:19:04,000
Speaker 4: It is about to get so much worse, right, So okay,

2819
02:19:04,040 --> 02:19:07,040
Speaker 4: So sticking with leveraging for a second. Right, you might

2820
02:19:07,040 --> 02:19:09,560
Speaker 4: have actually heard something called a leveraged buyout.

2821
02:19:10,040 --> 02:19:12,920
Speaker 21: I have heard those words, and then I stopped listening.

2822
02:19:13,120 --> 02:19:15,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, so here's the thing. Leverage buyouts are something that

2823
02:19:15,680 --> 02:19:18,400
Speaker 4: actually happens in the real world that does fuck you directly,

2824
02:19:18,760 --> 02:19:20,840
Speaker 4: which is a whole bunch of companies that used to

2825
02:19:20,920 --> 02:19:24,879
Speaker 4: be like normalized companies like died because venture capital firms, you,

2826
02:19:24,879 --> 02:19:28,440
Speaker 4: by the way, are also shadow banks. Oh did this right?

2827
02:19:28,640 --> 02:19:31,000
Speaker 4: They came in Technically speaking, they did it through like

2828
02:19:31,160 --> 02:19:33,360
Speaker 4: risky bond purchases, but basically they did a bunch of

2829
02:19:33,400 --> 02:19:36,000
Speaker 4: high interest loans and then they go buy a company

2830
02:19:36,040 --> 02:19:37,840
Speaker 4: and then they like strip it for parts, and then

2831
02:19:37,879 --> 02:19:40,000
Speaker 4: they try to raise the stock price of the company. Yeah,

2832
02:19:40,000 --> 02:19:43,119
Speaker 4: and the s Hriver parts, sell everything and get out right.

2833
02:19:43,240 --> 02:19:45,720
Speaker 4: That's what a leverage buyout is. These people are sort

2834
02:19:45,720 --> 02:19:47,720
Speaker 4: of are doing kind of a version of that, but

2835
02:19:47,879 --> 02:19:50,440
Speaker 4: like they're taking on this debt in order to like

2836
02:19:50,600 --> 02:19:56,040
Speaker 4: buy fucking shitty underwater mortgages because they look like they're

2837
02:19:56,040 --> 02:19:57,200
Speaker 4: making so much money.

2838
02:19:57,360 --> 02:20:01,039
Speaker 21: They're taking on real debt to buy high pathetical debt.

2839
02:20:01,360 --> 02:20:04,400
Speaker 4: Oh, it's about to get so much worse.

2840
02:20:04,760 --> 02:20:07,320
Speaker 21: That doesn't seem like a good idea, so.

2841
02:20:07,360 --> 02:20:10,320
Speaker 4: Not to get so much worse. So that's what like

2842
02:20:10,400 --> 02:20:11,760
Speaker 4: the leveraged part of that.

2843
02:20:12,000 --> 02:20:14,240
Speaker 21: I don't even know how you do that in burgers.

2844
02:20:14,480 --> 02:20:18,840
Speaker 4: I don't know You're you're going into debt to like

2845
02:20:18,959 --> 02:20:20,840
Speaker 4: buy the promise of burgers in the future.

2846
02:20:21,520 --> 02:20:24,119
Speaker 21: So you can sell those future burgers. Yeah, but burgers

2847
02:20:24,160 --> 02:20:26,320
Speaker 21: are real. The thing we're not talking about it really

2848
02:20:26,480 --> 02:20:26,840
Speaker 21: at all.

2849
02:20:27,360 --> 02:20:30,280
Speaker 4: Well, the technically, technically speaking, Somewhere at the bottom of

2850
02:20:30,320 --> 02:20:32,960
Speaker 4: this is mortgages. However, Comma, we're about to get into

2851
02:20:32,959 --> 02:20:35,280
Speaker 4: a kind of asset where there isn't anything behind it.

2852
02:20:35,800 --> 02:20:41,000
Speaker 4: This is where the really really truly unhinged shit starts.

2853
02:20:41,120 --> 02:20:43,560
Speaker 4: It hasn't, which is that these companies figured out a

2854
02:20:43,600 --> 02:20:47,320
Speaker 4: way to bet on whether these mortgages were going to

2855
02:20:47,320 --> 02:20:47,880
Speaker 4: fail or not.

2856
02:20:48,120 --> 02:20:51,880
Speaker 21: That's so tight mea, I fucking love that. I love it.

2857
02:20:52,000 --> 02:20:55,960
Speaker 4: Yes, yes, By the way, I kinnatsize enough. How unhinged.

2858
02:20:55,959 --> 02:20:59,600
Speaker 4: This is the mechanism they're using to do this. It's

2859
02:20:59,640 --> 02:21:02,560
Speaker 4: called a credit default swap. Oh, I've heard that phrase.

2860
02:21:02,959 --> 02:21:05,840
Speaker 4: This was supposed to be how they did insurance. Their

2861
02:21:05,879 --> 02:21:08,680
Speaker 4: mechanism for doing insurance on all of these insane loans

2862
02:21:08,680 --> 02:21:12,320
Speaker 4: they were doing was originally like, Okay, I'm gonna you're

2863
02:21:12,600 --> 02:21:14,480
Speaker 4: I don't know, so you have a you have a bank, right,

2864
02:21:14,480 --> 02:21:17,160
Speaker 4: the bank has given out a risky loan. So this

2865
02:21:17,240 --> 02:21:19,480
Speaker 4: bank goes to another bank. They shouldn't do that, and

2866
02:21:19,520 --> 02:21:22,440
Speaker 4: they say, hey, if this person actually pays the loan back,

2867
02:21:22,480 --> 02:21:23,760
Speaker 4: I will pay you money.

2868
02:21:23,879 --> 02:21:25,680
Speaker 21: Okay, So the other so the other bank is like

2869
02:21:25,920 --> 02:21:26,960
Speaker 21: taking a gamble here.

2870
02:21:27,320 --> 02:21:30,280
Speaker 4: Yeah. So so the other bank that's giving out the

2871
02:21:30,400 --> 02:21:33,440
Speaker 4: loan right gets money if the loan goes under. So

2872
02:21:33,480 --> 02:21:36,039
Speaker 4: in theory, they're sort of like insured against the risk.

2873
02:21:36,160 --> 02:21:38,320
Speaker 4: They call it like hedging. They're like so like it's

2874
02:21:38,360 --> 02:21:40,720
Speaker 4: like so theoretically it's less bad from them because now

2875
02:21:40,800 --> 02:21:42,720
Speaker 4: even if the loan goes under, they still get money

2876
02:21:42,760 --> 02:21:43,720
Speaker 4: back from that other bank.

2877
02:21:44,040 --> 02:21:46,240
Speaker 21: So the other bank is just a bookie.

2878
02:21:46,560 --> 02:21:49,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, and the other bank is betting that they are

2879
02:21:49,360 --> 02:21:52,920
Speaker 4: going to get it. So then and if the loan

2880
02:21:53,000 --> 02:21:54,960
Speaker 4: does get paid, then that bank makes money.

2881
02:21:55,120 --> 02:21:58,240
Speaker 21: And this is legal for everyone to do. Yep, this

2882
02:21:58,320 --> 02:22:00,480
Speaker 21: is real banking or shadow bank. This is real bank.

2883
02:22:01,080 --> 02:22:05,800
Speaker 4: Didn't know this is techniically actually no, this is actually

2884
02:22:05,879 --> 02:22:09,080
Speaker 4: both both of them do this. Technically speaking, the instrument

2885
02:22:09,240 --> 02:22:11,520
Speaker 4: like like the actual like credit default swap or whatever,

2886
02:22:11,600 --> 02:22:13,560
Speaker 4: is made by the shadow banks, but then they're brought

2887
02:22:13,600 --> 02:22:14,520
Speaker 4: by the regular banks.

2888
02:22:14,600 --> 02:22:17,040
Speaker 21: I'm started to think that the bank starts the shadow

2889
02:22:17,040 --> 02:22:19,800
Speaker 21: banks and then all of this is just fake and bad.

2890
02:22:20,360 --> 02:22:23,119
Speaker 4: Like here's the here's the thing about these systems, right,

2891
02:22:23,160 --> 02:22:25,120
Speaker 4: is that like a lot of the original literature on

2892
02:22:25,160 --> 02:22:27,040
Speaker 4: it was considering them separate. But it's like, no, like

2893
02:22:27,360 --> 02:22:29,959
Speaker 4: the regular banks are making their own shadow banks do

2894
02:22:30,000 --> 02:22:32,199
Speaker 4: these things. They're all involved in these assets. They're also

2895
02:22:32,280 --> 02:22:35,040
Speaker 4: investing in the shadow banks, which is the problem we're

2896
02:22:35,040 --> 02:22:35,600
Speaker 4: having right now.

2897
02:22:35,840 --> 02:22:37,920
Speaker 21: It's like it's the same guy. He just like turns

2898
02:22:37,920 --> 02:22:39,680
Speaker 21: his chair around at his desk and he's like, now

2899
02:22:39,720 --> 02:22:40,800
Speaker 21: I'm shadow bank Todd.

2900
02:22:41,000 --> 02:22:44,680
Speaker 4: Yeah. Well, and sometimes it's that sometimes there I legitimately

2901
02:22:44,800 --> 02:22:46,360
Speaker 4: is just other entities they work with.

2902
02:22:46,680 --> 02:22:49,240
Speaker 21: But yeah, but there's still it's still a bank engaging.

2903
02:22:49,280 --> 02:22:51,400
Speaker 21: So it's like all these are non banking practices, Yeah,

2904
02:22:51,400 --> 02:22:52,840
Speaker 21: but the bank is doing it well.

2905
02:22:52,879 --> 02:22:54,880
Speaker 4: But here's the thing. The important part for that though,

2906
02:22:54,920 --> 02:22:56,720
Speaker 4: is that like the non bank also can do this

2907
02:22:56,800 --> 02:22:58,320
Speaker 4: with other non banks.

2908
02:22:57,959 --> 02:23:00,760
Speaker 21: Even better even Yeah. Right, Still, like I just feel

2909
02:23:00,760 --> 02:23:02,480
Speaker 21: like once we're once we're talking about chadow banking, like

2910
02:23:02,520 --> 02:23:05,039
Speaker 21: the real bank should not be in the room, Like

2911
02:23:05,160 --> 02:23:07,800
Speaker 21: go home, Wells Fargo, you don't belong here, you're drunk.

2912
02:23:08,000 --> 02:23:10,600
Speaker 4: No, But like they're funding all of this, right, If

2913
02:23:10,600 --> 02:23:11,039
Speaker 4: the real.

2914
02:23:10,920 --> 02:23:12,720
Speaker 21: Bank is involved with the shadow banking, that means like

2915
02:23:12,800 --> 02:23:15,240
Speaker 21: I can't opt out of being involved in this because

2916
02:23:15,240 --> 02:23:16,199
Speaker 21: they get my money.

2917
02:23:16,800 --> 02:23:18,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know what we were talking about that at

2918
02:23:18,520 --> 02:23:20,440
Speaker 4: the top, that like so some of these like fank

2919
02:23:20,480 --> 02:23:22,360
Speaker 4: banks had to like stop their withdrawals. Oh yeah, one

2920
02:23:22,400 --> 02:23:23,960
Speaker 4: of those, by the way, was JP Morgan.

2921
02:23:24,160 --> 02:23:25,039
Speaker 21: But that's a real bank.

2922
02:23:25,480 --> 02:23:29,120
Speaker 4: Yep. They're involved in the shadow banking shit, so they

2923
02:23:29,320 --> 02:23:31,760
Speaker 4: they are exposed to when they're like fucking seven hundred

2924
02:23:31,760 --> 02:23:33,879
Speaker 4: million dollar loan to like a fucking actually went home.

2925
02:23:33,879 --> 02:23:35,920
Speaker 4: Which one was the seven hundred million dollar I think

2926
02:23:35,920 --> 02:23:37,959
Speaker 4: a seven hundred million dollar loan that went under was

2927
02:23:37,959 --> 02:23:41,959
Speaker 4: the one that was to a subprime auto loan company.

2928
02:23:42,360 --> 02:23:45,520
Speaker 21: That's a bad investment. It's oh yeah, it's so evil.

2929
02:23:46,080 --> 02:23:49,280
Speaker 21: So why am I trusting all of my money that

2930
02:23:49,320 --> 02:23:51,440
Speaker 21: I have in this world? I'm letting this guy hold

2931
02:23:51,480 --> 02:23:54,599
Speaker 21: on to it, who's obviously not good with fucking money.

2932
02:23:54,800 --> 02:23:56,680
Speaker 4: Well, because the FDIC is ensuring it.

2933
02:23:57,840 --> 02:23:59,320
Speaker 21: Why are you in charge of it? Why are you

2934
02:23:59,320 --> 02:24:01,520
Speaker 21: in charge of having the money? You obviously don't make

2935
02:24:01,520 --> 02:24:04,720
Speaker 21: great financial decisions because you invested seven hundred million dollars

2936
02:24:04,720 --> 02:24:06,160
Speaker 21: in subprime auto loans.

2937
02:24:07,560 --> 02:24:10,000
Speaker 4: So, Mollie, this, this is the this is the point

2938
02:24:10,040 --> 02:24:12,960
Speaker 4: where we need to bring debt. The first five thousand

2939
02:24:13,000 --> 02:24:15,200
Speaker 4: years back into this and emphasize the extent to which

2940
02:24:15,240 --> 02:24:17,640
Speaker 4: the financial class has always been deeply connected to the

2941
02:24:17,920 --> 02:24:20,560
Speaker 4: of the military and why it's always been deconnected to

2942
02:24:20,600 --> 02:24:21,520
Speaker 4: war financing.

2943
02:24:21,879 --> 02:24:25,000
Speaker 21: I'm starting to realize that this is all very bad.

2944
02:24:25,360 --> 02:24:27,520
Speaker 4: It's very bad. It's all very bad. And this is

2945
02:24:27,520 --> 02:24:30,800
Speaker 4: this is to some extent why right Like part part

2946
02:24:30,800 --> 02:24:34,720
Speaker 4: of what right wing conspiracism about the financial system is

2947
02:24:34,720 --> 02:24:37,560
Speaker 4: is that like these people are like like the right wingers,

2948
02:24:37,560 --> 02:24:39,600
Speaker 4: like these people are there's like a baseline level of

2949
02:24:39,640 --> 02:24:42,200
Speaker 4: anti Semitism, like in the US right because it is

2950
02:24:42,200 --> 02:24:44,440
Speaker 4: a is a Christian society that is just like what

2951
02:24:44,760 --> 02:24:48,560
Speaker 4: fucking happens there? And these people are like, okay, we

2952
02:24:48,600 --> 02:24:52,240
Speaker 4: can channel all of the anger at like, oh my god,

2953
02:24:52,360 --> 02:24:55,960
Speaker 4: by fucking house got stolen by the bank because because

2954
02:24:55,959 --> 02:24:57,800
Speaker 4: they were betting on the mortgage to fail.

2955
02:24:58,440 --> 02:25:00,520
Speaker 21: And I still understand why that seagull.

2956
02:25:01,200 --> 02:25:03,200
Speaker 4: Yeah. Well, all these right wing conspiracits do is they

2957
02:25:03,400 --> 02:25:04,680
Speaker 4: look at that shit and they go, oh, well it

2958
02:25:04,720 --> 02:25:07,200
Speaker 4: was the Jews, and it's like but no, like fuck off,

2959
02:25:07,440 --> 02:25:09,120
Speaker 4: like these are all no it was the band and

2960
02:25:09,360 --> 02:25:10,879
Speaker 4: the other thing. And this is actually a really important

2961
02:25:10,879 --> 02:25:13,080
Speaker 4: thing that's not well understood here is that like the

2962
02:25:13,200 --> 02:25:15,600
Speaker 4: actual people who run these fucking banks and the people

2963
02:25:15,600 --> 02:25:18,560
Speaker 4: who work at them are all fucking white Christian dipshits.

2964
02:25:19,000 --> 02:25:21,640
Speaker 4: This is like a really, really like persistent issue that

2965
02:25:21,680 --> 02:25:24,080
Speaker 4: everyone fucking has, which is that, like one of one

2966
02:25:24,080 --> 02:25:26,560
Speaker 4: of the great successes of anti Semitism was like creating

2967
02:25:26,600 --> 02:25:29,400
Speaker 4: the image of the banker as a Jewish person. And no,

2968
02:25:29,800 --> 02:25:32,080
Speaker 4: they're not the Bay Like I fucking went to school

2969
02:25:32,080 --> 02:25:33,720
Speaker 4: with these people. They're all a bunch of fucking white

2970
02:25:33,800 --> 02:25:36,440
Speaker 4: frat bros. They're fucking white Christian frat ros. Oh right,

2971
02:25:36,480 --> 02:25:37,800
Speaker 4: you University of Chicago.

2972
02:25:37,959 --> 02:25:40,039
Speaker 21: You have a degree in economics in the University of Chicago.

2973
02:25:40,160 --> 02:25:43,120
Speaker 4: No freaking I have an anthropology degree, Thank you very much.

2974
02:25:43,160 --> 02:25:47,280
Speaker 4: I took a not a fucking fake degree, like the

2975
02:25:47,320 --> 02:25:48,359
Speaker 4: stupid econ bullshit.

2976
02:25:48,480 --> 02:25:51,359
Speaker 21: I would say, that's actually so evil to study economics.

2977
02:25:51,440 --> 02:25:54,560
Speaker 21: It's Chicago. You probably met some of the most evil people.

2978
02:25:54,760 --> 02:25:57,560
Speaker 4: Armed fact, I was just like in a dorm with them. Okay,

2979
02:25:57,920 --> 02:25:59,840
Speaker 4: so but you saw that I know all these people. Yeah,

2980
02:25:59,840 --> 02:26:02,000
Speaker 4: and like it is not it is not a bunch

2981
02:26:02,040 --> 02:26:04,360
Speaker 4: of Jewish people. It's it's a bunch of Christian frat bros.

2982
02:26:04,640 --> 02:26:06,560
Speaker 4: Like that's like the thing that's actually going on. There's

2983
02:26:06,560 --> 02:26:09,440
Speaker 4: actually a whole One day I will write behind the

2984
02:26:09,440 --> 02:26:13,080
Speaker 4: Bastard's episode about leverage buyouts and about how like there

2985
02:26:13,200 --> 02:26:15,400
Speaker 4: was like a Jewish guy who kind of like like

2986
02:26:16,120 --> 02:26:18,720
Speaker 4: did a lot of the inventing stuff, but him breaking

2987
02:26:18,800 --> 02:26:21,160
Speaker 4: into the banking thing was like a whole thing because

2988
02:26:21,160 --> 02:26:22,960
Speaker 4: there was so much anti Semitism because all of the

2989
02:26:23,000 --> 02:26:25,840
Speaker 4: banking sector was run by all of the fucking like

2990
02:26:26,360 --> 02:26:31,800
Speaker 4: weird dipshit like CIA, like like wasp motherfuckers.

2991
02:26:33,600 --> 02:26:35,560
Speaker 21: I mean, the Mormons have a huge hedge fund.

2992
02:26:35,800 --> 02:26:37,320
Speaker 4: Yep, yep, yep, yep, yep.

2993
02:26:37,400 --> 02:26:38,920
Speaker 21: Yeah, so like the what I said, I read an

2994
02:26:39,000 --> 02:26:40,680
Speaker 21: article about it, the hedge Fund, that the Mormons operate

2995
02:26:40,760 --> 02:26:43,600
Speaker 21: like they have their like best and brightest finance bros.

2996
02:26:43,640 --> 02:26:45,760
Speaker 21: Like you know, Mormons do their to your mission. If

2997
02:26:45,800 --> 02:26:48,760
Speaker 21: you're really good at finance your mission, that you don't

2998
02:26:48,760 --> 02:26:50,360
Speaker 21: have to go to South America and like tell people

2999
02:26:50,360 --> 02:26:51,800
Speaker 21: about the Book of Mormon. You can work at the

3000
02:26:51,840 --> 02:26:52,840
Speaker 21: hedge fund as your mission.

3001
02:26:53,000 --> 02:26:53,920
Speaker 4: It's it's a nightmare.

3002
02:26:54,360 --> 02:26:56,160
Speaker 21: I'm doing a hedge funds for God. Yep.

3003
02:26:56,160 --> 02:27:00,840
Speaker 4: That's a Satis Shatto bank by the way. Yep, it's great.

3004
02:27:01,480 --> 02:27:05,360
Speaker 4: So okay, okay, coming back to this again, right, so

3005
02:27:05,400 --> 02:27:07,560
Speaker 4: we're talking about like what what causes two thousand and

3006
02:27:07,600 --> 02:27:09,959
Speaker 4: eight and how did these shadow banks like do this?

3007
02:27:10,560 --> 02:27:13,600
Speaker 4: And the answer is that they've turned all of these

3008
02:27:13,640 --> 02:27:17,560
Speaker 4: mortgages into these like fake securities they can trade, right,

3009
02:27:18,280 --> 02:27:21,879
Speaker 4: they package them all together, and they find out something

3010
02:27:21,920 --> 02:27:24,160
Speaker 4: really crucial, which is that if they throw a bunch

3011
02:27:24,200 --> 02:27:26,119
Speaker 4: of loans that they obviously know are going to fail

3012
02:27:26,160 --> 02:27:28,800
Speaker 4: together and send them to a regulatory agency. And by

3013
02:27:28,840 --> 02:27:30,920
Speaker 4: the way, all of these like bonds that they're issuing

3014
02:27:30,959 --> 02:27:33,360
Speaker 4: have like grades based on supposed to be like how

3015
02:27:33,360 --> 02:27:36,400
Speaker 4: safe they are. And they figure out, yeah, and they

3016
02:27:36,440 --> 02:27:38,360
Speaker 4: figure out that they can send a bunch of really

3017
02:27:38,360 --> 02:27:41,080
Speaker 4: shitty bonds, but if they package enough shitty bonds together,

3018
02:27:41,120 --> 02:27:43,840
Speaker 4: they could send them to the regulators and the regulators

3019
02:27:43,840 --> 02:27:46,280
Speaker 4: would have would evaluate some of them as being good,

3020
02:27:46,600 --> 02:27:48,440
Speaker 4: and then you could sell the good ones to your

3021
02:27:48,480 --> 02:27:51,600
Speaker 4: pension fund because I thought it was a good bond

3022
02:27:53,680 --> 02:27:57,800
Speaker 4: and it made money. Lie and then and then yes,

3023
02:27:57,920 --> 02:28:00,480
Speaker 4: and yes, and then and then behind the scene, right,

3024
02:28:00,720 --> 02:28:02,800
Speaker 4: all of these fucking companies, all these shadow banks, all

3025
02:28:02,800 --> 02:28:05,959
Speaker 4: the regular banks, they're all doing these they're all doing

3026
02:28:05,959 --> 02:28:08,440
Speaker 4: these credit default swaps, right, So they're all betting on

3027
02:28:08,480 --> 02:28:09,760
Speaker 4: which ones of these are going to fail.

3028
02:28:09,920 --> 02:28:12,360
Speaker 21: I'm putting all of these boys in time out. I'm

3029
02:28:12,360 --> 02:28:13,640
Speaker 21: gonna put them in the bottom.

3030
02:28:13,320 --> 02:28:16,640
Speaker 4: Of a hip so evil, and they start they start

3031
02:28:16,720 --> 02:28:20,119
Speaker 4: doing these, making these like even more complicated instruments right where,

3032
02:28:20,120 --> 02:28:22,840
Speaker 4: Now what they're what they're selling to you isn't just

3033
02:28:23,040 --> 02:28:25,920
Speaker 4: the package of mortgages. They're also selling you the credit

3034
02:28:25,959 --> 02:28:29,480
Speaker 4: default swaps with the loan. So theoretically, what's happening is

3035
02:28:29,480 --> 02:28:32,200
Speaker 4: like they've created an instrument that, regardless of what happens

3036
02:28:32,240 --> 02:28:33,480
Speaker 4: to the loan, you make money.

3037
02:28:33,680 --> 02:28:34,960
Speaker 21: That's not how anything works.

3038
02:28:35,240 --> 02:28:36,680
Speaker 4: No, it's bullshit.

3039
02:28:36,800 --> 02:28:40,360
Speaker 21: It's so obviously bullshit. I made up this fake thing

3040
02:28:40,360 --> 02:28:42,960
Speaker 21: where no matter what happens, I get rich. That's cool.

3041
02:28:43,000 --> 02:28:43,800
Speaker 21: I would love to do that.

3042
02:28:44,360 --> 02:28:46,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, and nobody was like wait, well, I mean some

3043
02:28:46,760 --> 02:28:48,600
Speaker 4: a couple of people were, but like, like people didn't

3044
02:28:48,800 --> 02:28:51,400
Speaker 4: just be like wait, hold on, no, obviously you can't

3045
02:28:51,400 --> 02:28:54,520
Speaker 4: make an asset that makes money regardless of whether the

3046
02:28:54,560 --> 02:28:55,480
Speaker 4: thing fails or not.

3047
02:28:55,640 --> 02:28:58,320
Speaker 21: I invented a money machine, Like that's fucking ridiculous.

3048
02:28:58,400 --> 02:29:00,480
Speaker 4: And then eventually yeah, it was like no, they ran

3049
02:29:00,520 --> 02:29:03,520
Speaker 4: out of fucking mortgages. You know. One of the ways

3050
02:29:03,520 --> 02:29:05,840
Speaker 4: that the blame for this was deflected onto regular people

3051
02:29:05,959 --> 02:29:08,840
Speaker 4: was that they blamed the banks or like they blamed

3052
02:29:08,879 --> 02:29:11,080
Speaker 4: regular people for like not being able to pay the mortgages.

3053
02:29:11,080 --> 02:29:12,960
Speaker 4: But the thing is, by the time you get to

3054
02:29:13,000 --> 02:29:15,440
Speaker 4: the point where you're like packaging all that, you're betting

3055
02:29:15,440 --> 02:29:18,280
Speaker 4: on the mortgages. Right if you're a bank, even if

3056
02:29:18,320 --> 02:29:20,720
Speaker 4: you're the regular bank, you don't make money off of

3057
02:29:20,760 --> 02:29:23,720
Speaker 4: like someone paying their mortgage back. You make money on

3058
02:29:23,920 --> 02:29:27,560
Speaker 4: betting on the mortgages. So you're incentivized to just keep

3059
02:29:27,600 --> 02:29:30,080
Speaker 4: giving out loans you know won't happen because you can

3060
02:29:30,160 --> 02:29:32,520
Speaker 4: sell those loans off to some other dipshit and then

3061
02:29:32,560 --> 02:29:34,320
Speaker 4: you and then you can bet on those loans that

3062
02:29:34,320 --> 02:29:36,000
Speaker 4: they're going to fail and you can make money. And

3063
02:29:36,040 --> 02:29:37,760
Speaker 4: that's how you make your money because you're.

3064
02:29:37,640 --> 02:29:42,560
Speaker 21: You're not a bank anymore. You're a bookie who's cheating. Yep,

3065
02:29:43,200 --> 02:29:44,400
Speaker 21: I don't think that's good.

3066
02:29:44,320 --> 02:29:48,880
Speaker 4: Mia, No, this was the entire fucking financial system, and

3067
02:29:49,000 --> 02:29:51,080
Speaker 4: we just let these people stay in power.

3068
02:29:51,640 --> 02:29:53,879
Speaker 21: And I'm just supposed to just continue living my life

3069
02:29:53,959 --> 02:29:54,240
Speaker 21: like this.

3070
02:29:55,280 --> 02:29:55,879
Speaker 2: I don't know, like.

3071
02:29:57,480 --> 02:29:59,560
Speaker 4: Looking at this and then and then learning that all

3072
02:29:59,560 --> 02:30:01,400
Speaker 4: of these people got fucking bailed up by the government

3073
02:30:01,400 --> 02:30:02,400
Speaker 4: and none of them went to prison.

3074
02:30:02,640 --> 02:30:05,879
Speaker 21: And do they know they're cheating liars who are faking

3075
02:30:05,879 --> 02:30:07,600
Speaker 21: and making it up? Or are they like so high

3076
02:30:07,600 --> 02:30:09,480
Speaker 21: on their own supply they're like, they're like, no, bro, no,

3077
02:30:09,560 --> 02:30:11,200
Speaker 21: but this is totally gonna work. It's totally gonna work.

3078
02:30:11,280 --> 02:30:14,280
Speaker 4: Well, here's the thing. Some of them know and some

3079
02:30:14,360 --> 02:30:15,599
Speaker 4: of them don't.

3080
02:30:15,440 --> 02:30:17,360
Speaker 21: Because some of them believe that this is cool.

3081
02:30:17,520 --> 02:30:19,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, like some some of them legitimately thought that this

3082
02:30:19,959 --> 02:30:21,039
Speaker 4: was just going to work forever.

3083
02:30:21,440 --> 02:30:24,440
Speaker 21: Like do they believe their negative money, backed by other

3084
02:30:24,520 --> 02:30:27,720
Speaker 21: fake money, backed by the idea of promises of fake money?

3085
02:30:27,840 --> 02:30:28,640
Speaker 21: They think that's money.

3086
02:30:28,800 --> 02:30:32,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, yep, Well thought was gonna work. It's not, it's not. Nope,

3087
02:30:32,560 --> 02:30:34,120
Speaker 4: And it turned out to not be any fucking money,

3088
02:30:34,120 --> 02:30:38,320
Speaker 4: and it blew up again, Like entire countries, countries were

3089
02:30:38,320 --> 02:30:40,240
Speaker 4: buying these, they went bankrupt.

3090
02:30:40,560 --> 02:30:45,440
Speaker 21: So like this is less real than a board epe nft.

3091
02:30:46,000 --> 02:30:50,480
Speaker 21: And that's really saying something. It's it's astonishing because at

3092
02:30:50,520 --> 02:30:52,280
Speaker 21: least the at least I can look at least I

3093
02:30:52,280 --> 02:30:54,360
Speaker 21: can look at the picture of the monkey. I can't

3094
02:30:54,400 --> 02:30:54,920
Speaker 21: look at this.

3095
02:30:55,200 --> 02:30:57,119
Speaker 4: No, like it like you can't look at the bet

3096
02:30:57,160 --> 02:31:00,480
Speaker 4: you're making on whether and whether monkey go down, Like it's.

3097
02:31:00,320 --> 02:31:02,680
Speaker 21: Like like all my apes gone.

3098
02:31:03,080 --> 02:31:05,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, but it's suppresiing because the entire world is just this.

3099
02:31:06,080 --> 02:31:07,600
Speaker 4: Now it's a shit the banks were doing where you're

3100
02:31:07,640 --> 02:31:09,320
Speaker 4: betting on whether mortgage gould to fail, but now it's

3101
02:31:09,320 --> 02:31:11,600
Speaker 4: your betting on whether like what day we're going to

3102
02:31:11,640 --> 02:31:12,640
Speaker 4: drop a bomb on a run?

3103
02:31:13,280 --> 02:31:15,680
Speaker 21: Like nothing is real and everything is gambling.

3104
02:31:16,000 --> 02:31:19,840
Speaker 4: Yeah. Yeah, And this is you know, what I would

3105
02:31:19,879 --> 02:31:23,039
Speaker 4: call a sort of terminal crisis stage of capitalism, where like.

3106
02:31:23,080 --> 02:31:26,160
Speaker 21: Because everything is so divorced from any material reality, from

3107
02:31:26,160 --> 02:31:27,759
Speaker 21: any good or service.

3108
02:31:27,840 --> 02:31:29,840
Speaker 4: Like there is a limit to which you can run

3109
02:31:29,879 --> 02:31:32,640
Speaker 4: an entire economy that is purely based on gambling. Like

3110
02:31:32,879 --> 02:31:35,480
Speaker 4: they're just there's a limit and we're going to hit it. Really,

3111
02:31:35,520 --> 02:31:39,440
Speaker 4: so that's that's got to break, right, Yeah, Yeah, it's

3112
02:31:39,520 --> 02:31:42,640
Speaker 4: going to break. It's going to break spectacularly. However, Comma,

3113
02:31:42,680 --> 02:31:45,600
Speaker 4: I do have good news for you, don't I do?

3114
02:31:45,760 --> 02:31:49,880
Speaker 4: I have good news? You now actually understand what non

3115
02:31:49,920 --> 02:31:54,640
Speaker 4: bank financial intermediation is. No, I don't. I'm going to

3116
02:31:54,720 --> 02:31:57,720
Speaker 4: walk through through it. You actually do. So I'm going

3117
02:31:57,800 --> 02:32:01,680
Speaker 4: to quote the IMS definition of non bank financial intermediation

3118
02:32:02,560 --> 02:32:07,039
Speaker 4: quote all entities outside the regulated banking system that perform

3119
02:32:07,160 --> 02:32:12,440
Speaker 4: the core banking functions credit intermediation, that is taking money

3120
02:32:12,440 --> 02:32:15,199
Speaker 4: from savers and letting it to borrowers. The four key

3121
02:32:15,280 --> 02:32:20,880
Speaker 4: aspects of intermediation are maturity transformation. We know this one, right,

3122
02:32:21,120 --> 02:32:22,640
Speaker 4: This is this is what the bank does.

3123
02:32:22,760 --> 02:32:25,480
Speaker 21: The loan gets older. Yeah, yeah, he gets paid back

3124
02:32:25,520 --> 02:32:26,039
Speaker 21: over time.

3125
02:32:26,320 --> 02:32:26,520
Speaker 9: Yeah.

3126
02:32:26,520 --> 02:32:29,680
Speaker 4: Well it's you you turn your short term thing into

3127
02:32:29,760 --> 02:32:31,959
Speaker 4: a long term investment, or you do the opposite.

3128
02:32:32,040 --> 02:32:32,920
Speaker 21: Opposite, it's not good.

3129
02:32:33,600 --> 02:32:36,320
Speaker 4: They're both kind of a disaster, but like, yeah, yeah,

3130
02:32:36,360 --> 02:32:38,600
Speaker 4: the no, the opposite is kind of how we got

3131
02:32:38,640 --> 02:32:39,360
Speaker 4: into this mess.

3132
02:32:39,840 --> 02:32:44,200
Speaker 21: There's liquidity transformation, which we know this too. It's turning

3133
02:32:44,240 --> 02:32:46,080
Speaker 21: money into a thing that's not money.

3134
02:32:45,879 --> 02:32:48,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, or turning not money into a thing you can

3135
02:32:48,280 --> 02:32:48,959
Speaker 4: buy burger with.

3136
02:32:49,240 --> 02:32:51,120
Speaker 21: Okay, yeah, we got this.

3137
02:32:52,000 --> 02:32:55,320
Speaker 4: Leverage We also know this, which is you go into

3138
02:32:55,320 --> 02:32:58,600
Speaker 4: a bunch of debt to buy something else. And then

3139
02:32:59,080 --> 02:33:01,520
Speaker 4: there's credit risk transfer, which we know that one too.

3140
02:33:01,560 --> 02:33:07,400
Speaker 4: It's the betting market. We're supposedly swapping the risk by

3141
02:33:07,879 --> 02:33:09,480
Speaker 4: both of you two are now betting on whether this

3142
02:33:09,520 --> 02:33:10,320
Speaker 4: thing is going to fail.

3143
02:33:10,560 --> 02:33:13,560
Speaker 21: So it sounds like even just like regular banking is

3144
02:33:13,800 --> 02:33:15,320
Speaker 21: kind of just gambling now.

3145
02:33:15,440 --> 02:33:18,959
Speaker 4: Yep, yep, yep. Well, and it's fun too, So this

3146
02:33:19,000 --> 02:33:20,440
Speaker 4: is the thing that you used to be talked about

3147
02:33:20,440 --> 02:33:23,760
Speaker 4: more and isn't now. But like most of like, like

3148
02:33:23,920 --> 02:33:28,200
Speaker 4: the world's corporations are also basically this now, like this

3149
02:33:28,240 --> 02:33:29,440
Speaker 4: has been a thing for a while. But it's like

3150
02:33:29,440 --> 02:33:31,760
Speaker 4: the auto manufacturers don't make their money off of cars.

3151
02:33:31,840 --> 02:33:33,280
Speaker 4: I mean they sort of do. They make some money

3152
02:33:33,280 --> 02:33:34,680
Speaker 4: of cars, or like, most of what they make their

3153
02:33:34,680 --> 02:33:37,800
Speaker 4: money off of is like the forward finance company, which

3154
02:33:37,840 --> 02:33:40,680
Speaker 4: is like the auto loans thing. Oh and then the

3155
02:33:40,680 --> 02:33:43,120
Speaker 4: auto loans thing trades a bunch of like does all

3156
02:33:43,160 --> 02:33:45,040
Speaker 4: of this other financial bullshit to make money?

3157
02:33:45,320 --> 02:33:47,520
Speaker 21: So, like, I don't think that's a good idea.

3158
02:33:48,320 --> 02:33:50,000
Speaker 4: That's that's what capitalism is.

3159
02:33:50,440 --> 02:33:55,640
Speaker 21: So everything, everything is fully reliant on this.

3160
02:33:55,600 --> 02:33:56,959
Speaker 4: Like stupid gambling bullshit.

3161
02:33:56,959 --> 02:34:01,560
Speaker 21: Emperor is wearing no clothes economy yep. And if anybody,

3162
02:34:01,600 --> 02:34:04,119
Speaker 21: if anybody points out that none of this is connected

3163
02:34:04,120 --> 02:34:06,840
Speaker 21: to a material reality, everything falls apart.

3164
02:34:07,120 --> 02:34:09,120
Speaker 4: Well, here's the thing. The thing that stops everything for

3165
02:34:09,200 --> 02:34:10,959
Speaker 4: falling apart is that the one thing you can do

3166
02:34:11,080 --> 02:34:13,000
Speaker 4: with your money is turn it into gun.

3167
02:34:13,400 --> 02:34:14,760
Speaker 21: Now I'm listening, and.

3168
02:34:14,680 --> 02:34:17,080
Speaker 4: That's what stops it falling apart, right because.

3169
02:34:16,840 --> 02:34:17,560
Speaker 21: Now I'm listening.

3170
02:34:17,640 --> 02:34:19,959
Speaker 4: And this is also a sort of graverism. But it's

3171
02:34:19,959 --> 02:34:22,680
Speaker 4: like behind every bank is a man with a gun,

3172
02:34:23,120 --> 02:34:26,160
Speaker 4: because the reason that this money is even sort of

3173
02:34:26,200 --> 02:34:29,560
Speaker 4: real is that the bank can, like you, like the

3174
02:34:29,640 --> 02:34:33,040
Speaker 4: police will come get you, right, like men with guns

3175
02:34:33,080 --> 02:34:35,200
Speaker 4: will appear and coerce you to pay shit.

3176
02:34:35,680 --> 02:34:39,200
Speaker 21: Right, But what if what if instead of burger we

3177
02:34:39,760 --> 02:34:40,960
Speaker 21: bought gun?

3178
02:34:42,000 --> 02:34:44,280
Speaker 4: You know, like this is what is broadly referred to

3179
02:34:44,400 --> 02:34:47,800
Speaker 4: as the social revolution. It is it is broadly considered

3180
02:34:47,800 --> 02:34:50,120
Speaker 4: a negative by the financial sector. It is broadly considered

3181
02:34:50,160 --> 02:34:53,160
Speaker 4: a positive by everyone the fuck else. Okay, that's not true.

3182
02:34:53,160 --> 02:34:55,320
Speaker 4: It's not considered it a positive by like, I guess

3183
02:34:55,360 --> 02:34:58,000
Speaker 4: the people who own regular businesses. And this is like

3184
02:34:58,040 --> 02:35:01,360
Speaker 4: this shit that like, you know, it kind of less

3185
02:35:01,440 --> 02:35:04,039
Speaker 4: unhinged back then. But like if you go read the

3186
02:35:04,120 --> 02:35:05,920
Speaker 4: people who were like doing this shit in like the

3187
02:35:05,959 --> 02:35:09,000
Speaker 4: early nineteen hundreds, if you read their writing, it's all

3188
02:35:09,120 --> 02:35:11,400
Speaker 4: them being like, oh yeah, no, by the way, like

3189
02:35:11,680 --> 02:35:14,279
Speaker 4: a bunch of banks just like turned the entire Ottoman

3190
02:35:14,320 --> 02:35:16,800
Speaker 4: Empire into like a debt peon. And now their entire

3191
02:35:16,840 --> 02:35:19,600
Speaker 4: economy is just dedicated to paying off these fucking loans.

3192
02:35:19,840 --> 02:35:22,840
Speaker 4: And this is like hideously fucking evil, Like they're all

3193
02:35:22,840 --> 02:35:24,120
Speaker 4: complaining about the same shit.

3194
02:35:24,400 --> 02:35:27,400
Speaker 21: And the important lesson we learned from that, the important

3195
02:35:27,480 --> 02:35:30,520
Speaker 21: lesson we learned from that was to do it more more.

3196
02:35:30,560 --> 02:35:35,360
Speaker 21: Oh yeah, yeah yeah, to invent increasingly more complicated ways

3197
02:35:35,400 --> 02:35:36,320
Speaker 21: of doing that.

3198
02:35:36,840 --> 02:35:37,040
Speaker 6: Yeah.

3199
02:35:37,200 --> 02:35:40,400
Speaker 4: And like this, this is why the term third World

3200
02:35:40,440 --> 02:35:43,600
Speaker 4: is a slur becauseuse instead of being a political movement,

3201
02:35:43,640 --> 02:35:45,880
Speaker 4: because those the countries in the political movement that was

3202
02:35:45,920 --> 02:35:48,720
Speaker 4: called the Third World movement, all of their economies got

3203
02:35:48,720 --> 02:35:51,959
Speaker 4: fucking annihilated because they had these like loans whose interest

3204
02:35:52,040 --> 02:35:54,720
Speaker 4: rate could change, and the US jacked up all the

3205
02:35:54,720 --> 02:35:58,200
Speaker 4: interest rates and so suddenly their loans were like like

3206
02:35:58,280 --> 02:35:59,920
Speaker 4: the amount you had to like pay on the loan

3207
02:36:00,360 --> 02:36:02,879
Speaker 4: it went from like twenty percent or something to like

3208
02:36:03,240 --> 02:36:05,520
Speaker 4: fifty or one hundred or some shit. And you know,

3209
02:36:05,560 --> 02:36:07,760
Speaker 4: and like in these countries have never recovered, like Nigeria

3210
02:36:07,800 --> 02:36:11,320
Speaker 4: has never really economically recovered from the shit that happened

3211
02:36:11,320 --> 02:36:12,840
Speaker 4: to them with this. This is why a whole bunch

3212
02:36:12,840 --> 02:36:15,080
Speaker 4: of Latin America is like this too, Like it was

3213
02:36:15,120 --> 02:36:17,680
Speaker 4: like why there's so much sort of like writing systemic poverty,

3214
02:36:17,840 --> 02:36:22,200
Speaker 4: is that there were economies were entirely transformed into machines

3215
02:36:22,240 --> 02:36:24,480
Speaker 4: to like pay back these fucking debts taken out by

3216
02:36:24,480 --> 02:36:27,560
Speaker 4: these dictators. This is the whole fucking economy now. And

3217
02:36:28,440 --> 02:36:31,080
Speaker 4: you know there's other shadow banks that do other kind

3218
02:36:31,120 --> 02:36:33,520
Speaker 4: of completely unhand shit, right And I've been focusing this

3219
02:36:33,560 --> 02:36:35,480
Speaker 4: week on like specifically the kind that blew up the

3220
02:36:35,480 --> 02:36:38,640
Speaker 4: economy in two thousand and eight, But there's another kind

3221
02:36:38,920 --> 02:36:41,040
Speaker 4: that's like blowing up the economy right now, which is

3222
02:36:41,080 --> 02:36:43,880
Speaker 4: called private credit, which is I mentioned this briefly earlier,

3223
02:36:43,920 --> 02:36:47,680
Speaker 4: but private credit is when these like unregulated companies that

3224
02:36:47,720 --> 02:36:51,120
Speaker 4: are not banks, give out unregulated loans with unknown terms

3225
02:36:51,120 --> 02:36:53,879
Speaker 4: to other companies, and then those loans go to shit.

3226
02:36:53,920 --> 02:36:55,640
Speaker 4: And there's a whole bunch of ways that can blow up,

3227
02:36:55,640 --> 02:36:57,600
Speaker 4: including by the way, these companies are funding a bunch

3228
02:36:57,600 --> 02:36:58,520
Speaker 4: of the AI bubble.

3229
02:36:58,720 --> 02:37:01,240
Speaker 21: Oh and that's a great in depth, it's great, you

3230
02:37:01,280 --> 02:37:04,039
Speaker 21: know because much much like a mortgage, there's a real

3231
02:37:04,040 --> 02:37:07,760
Speaker 21: physical thing like a house involved, Right, it's not just vibes.

3232
02:37:08,120 --> 02:37:11,160
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, oh molly, molly, they those motherfuckers. I'm gonna

3233
02:37:11,160 --> 02:37:12,440
Speaker 4: talk about this a bit. I might have had just

3234
02:37:12,560 --> 02:37:14,200
Speaker 4: run on for this part of it too, just because

3235
02:37:14,240 --> 02:37:16,520
Speaker 4: like ED does this all the time. But like those

3236
02:37:16,560 --> 02:37:19,720
Speaker 4: motherfuckers out there selling securities that are backed by fucking

3237
02:37:19,959 --> 02:37:25,640
Speaker 4: graphics cards, like at least the more I can't believe

3238
02:37:25,640 --> 02:37:28,600
Speaker 4: I'm fucking saying this, but like at least the mortgage

3239
02:37:28,640 --> 02:37:31,520
Speaker 4: backed securities, like there was a house you could steal

3240
02:37:31,600 --> 02:37:35,160
Speaker 4: to get your money back graphics cards ball.

3241
02:37:35,160 --> 02:37:40,040
Speaker 21: All my apes are, all my apes are gone. Like

3242
02:37:40,080 --> 02:37:43,840
Speaker 21: there's other ones that like it's it's so bad, it's just.

3243
02:37:47,280 --> 02:37:50,119
Speaker 4: But that that's for another time because it is late

3244
02:37:50,120 --> 02:37:52,959
Speaker 4: as fuck and we are out of here. Mollie. Thank you,

3245
02:37:53,080 --> 02:37:56,800
Speaker 4: Thank you for sitting and enduring an hour of you

3246
02:37:56,920 --> 02:37:58,080
Speaker 4: knowing what a shadow bank is.

3247
02:37:58,120 --> 02:38:01,640
Speaker 21: Now I almost know what a bank is. I'm still

3248
02:38:01,640 --> 02:38:03,280
Speaker 21: working on the rest of it, but I think I'm

3249
02:38:03,280 --> 02:38:03,960
Speaker 21: getting closer.

3250
02:38:04,240 --> 02:38:07,400
Speaker 4: I believe in you. I think we've made for progress today.

3251
02:38:07,879 --> 02:38:10,480
Speaker 4: I don't know. Now you can kind of understand what's

3252
02:38:10,520 --> 02:38:14,720
Speaker 4: going on. When this sting sector explodes again in like two.

3253
02:38:14,520 --> 02:38:16,240
Speaker 21: Weeks, you'll have to explain it to me again.

3254
02:38:16,280 --> 02:38:17,600
Speaker 4: Then I will be happy.

3255
02:38:17,360 --> 02:38:37,720
Speaker 9: To oh.

3256
02:38:42,320 --> 02:38:45,160
Speaker 24: Demo crazy words.

3257
02:38:46,760 --> 02:38:49,600
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty, millions of Americans took to the streets

3258
02:38:49,600 --> 02:38:53,240
Speaker 1: to protest police violence. They were met with police violence

3259
02:38:53,280 --> 02:38:57,600
Speaker 1: on a massive scale. Shootings, vehicle attacks, and assassinations occurred

3260
02:38:57,640 --> 02:39:01,480
Speaker 1: alongside these protests, often into fas of the police, and

3261
02:39:01,560 --> 02:39:05,200
Speaker 1: in total, at least twenty five Americans died. We now

3262
02:39:05,240 --> 02:39:08,560
Speaker 1: know that President Trump repeatedly urged General Mark Milly to

3263
02:39:08,600 --> 02:39:12,720
Speaker 1: deploy US military forces to crack down violently on demonstrations.

3264
02:39:13,240 --> 02:39:15,640
Speaker 1: Milly claims that Trump told him to have his soldiers

3265
02:39:15,800 --> 02:39:20,640
Speaker 1: crack skulls, beat the fuck out of and just shoot protesters.

3266
02:39:21,680 --> 02:39:24,840
Speaker 1: In the end, we were all lucky. Military leaders, including

3267
02:39:24,879 --> 02:39:27,760
Speaker 1: General Milly, resisted calls to use their men to suppress

3268
02:39:27,800 --> 02:39:31,560
Speaker 1: domestic descent. National Guard were called in to police several

3269
02:39:31,600 --> 02:39:34,800
Speaker 1: major cities, but in many cases their behavior was tame

3270
02:39:34,920 --> 02:39:38,240
Speaker 1: compared to the militarized police who were reliably shot and

3271
02:39:38,280 --> 02:39:42,200
Speaker 1: beat protesters. For millions of Americans, twenty twenty was their

3272
02:39:42,240 --> 02:39:44,800
Speaker 1: first exposure to the violence the state will do to

3273
02:39:44,879 --> 02:39:49,800
Speaker 1: avoid change. And then Trump lost the election. He and

3274
02:39:49,840 --> 02:39:52,359
Speaker 1: his followers tried to carry out a coupe, but failed

3275
02:39:52,600 --> 02:39:55,280
Speaker 1: for now and millions of Americans who'd taken to the

3276
02:39:55,280 --> 02:39:59,280
Speaker 1: streets mostly went back to their lives. Some were satisfied

3277
02:39:59,400 --> 02:40:01,920
Speaker 1: just as had been done. Others were furious to have

3278
02:40:01,920 --> 02:40:05,120
Speaker 1: stopped short of instituting real change, but at the end

3279
02:40:05,120 --> 02:40:08,200
Speaker 1: of the day, business went on as usual. A version

3280
02:40:08,280 --> 02:40:12,920
Speaker 1: of normal prevailed. In twenty twenty one, the military of Myanmar,

3281
02:40:13,360 --> 02:40:16,520
Speaker 1: known as the tout Mada, overthrew the elected government in

3282
02:40:16,560 --> 02:40:20,040
Speaker 1: a coup. Hundreds of thousands of citizens, most of them young,

3283
02:40:20,120 --> 02:40:23,000
Speaker 1: gin z and millennial men and women, took to the streets.

3284
02:40:23,520 --> 02:40:27,720
Speaker 1: Police responded with tear gas, water cannons, and eventually bullets.

3285
02:40:28,400 --> 02:40:31,480
Speaker 1: The international community expressed its horror at the brutality of

3286
02:40:31,520 --> 02:40:35,080
Speaker 1: the TOTMDA, but that's all they did. Over the course

3287
02:40:35,120 --> 02:40:38,400
Speaker 1: of several months, the military pushed protesters mostly out of

3288
02:40:38,440 --> 02:40:41,640
Speaker 1: the cities, and a protest movement against the military coup

3289
02:40:42,080 --> 02:40:46,000
Speaker 1: turned into a civil war. Now those same protesters, mostly

3290
02:40:46,120 --> 02:40:48,640
Speaker 1: kids who wanted nothing more than a normal life, have

3291
02:40:48,720 --> 02:40:52,640
Speaker 1: become revolutionaries. With home made guns, three D printed rockets,

3292
02:40:52,640 --> 02:40:56,120
Speaker 1: and stolen rifles, they battled the taut Mada. Some of

3293
02:40:56,160 --> 02:40:58,320
Speaker 1: them fight in the jungles, some of them fight in

3294
02:40:58,360 --> 02:41:01,800
Speaker 1: the cities, and some of them on the internet. This

3295
02:41:01,959 --> 02:41:08,440
Speaker 1: is their story. We're sitting in a large suburban home

3296
02:41:08,480 --> 02:41:11,360
Speaker 1: in Mysot, Thailand, a small city on the border of

3297
02:41:11,400 --> 02:41:14,360
Speaker 1: Me and Mar. The boys singing and playing music around

3298
02:41:14,440 --> 02:41:17,600
Speaker 1: us range in age from seventeen to twenty two. Their

3299
02:41:17,640 --> 02:41:20,600
Speaker 1: existence in Thailand is a crime. If they are caught here,

3300
02:41:20,840 --> 02:41:23,320
Speaker 1: they'll be forced across the border into Me and Mar,

3301
02:41:23,640 --> 02:41:27,199
Speaker 1: whose government executed their friends and sold the organs for profit.

3302
02:41:28,000 --> 02:41:32,120
Speaker 1: But tonight they're playing music. We're drinking beer. Later, James

3303
02:41:32,160 --> 02:41:33,959
Speaker 1: Stout and I will play pool with them and get

3304
02:41:33,959 --> 02:41:36,560
Speaker 1: our asses just catastrophically wrecked.

3305
02:41:40,720 --> 02:41:43,120
Speaker 3: We met Andy, aged twenty two and head of the

3306
02:41:43,160 --> 02:41:46,440
Speaker 3: family for his Instagram page. That's not his real name,

3307
02:41:46,640 --> 02:41:50,320
Speaker 3: but for obvious reasons, we can't identify him. We first

3308
02:41:50,320 --> 02:41:52,280
Speaker 3: met when I send him a DM asking if we

3309
02:41:52,280 --> 02:41:54,360
Speaker 3: could buy one of his photos for our first series

3310
02:41:54,360 --> 02:41:57,039
Speaker 3: on Me and Ma. He was a bit skeptical, but

3311
02:41:57,120 --> 02:41:58,600
Speaker 3: I tried my best to get him to see we

3312
02:41:58,720 --> 02:42:00,600
Speaker 3: just wanted to give him money and from his work.

3313
02:42:01,520 --> 02:42:03,680
Speaker 3: Over the next six months or so, we weren't from

3314
02:42:03,680 --> 02:42:06,879
Speaker 3: talking on the phone to messaging almost every day, to

3315
02:42:06,959 --> 02:42:09,760
Speaker 3: Robert and I booking tickets to Thailand, to sitting on

3316
02:42:09,800 --> 02:42:12,480
Speaker 3: the top floor of their house. It used to be

3317
02:42:12,560 --> 02:42:15,440
Speaker 3: his landlord's office, but now it's home to Andy and

3318
02:42:15,480 --> 02:42:18,840
Speaker 3: his partner Sarah. That's also not her real name, because

3319
02:42:18,840 --> 02:42:22,520
Speaker 3: she's a citizen of a Western nation working in Thailand.

3320
02:42:22,680 --> 02:42:25,800
Speaker 3: The boys we talk about are the brothers, his cousin

3321
02:42:26,000 --> 02:42:29,160
Speaker 3: and friends. They live at a small building across the garden,

3322
02:42:29,280 --> 02:42:31,440
Speaker 3: and in the daytime they sit under a gazeba and

3323
02:42:31,480 --> 02:42:35,000
Speaker 3: play their guitars. The first night we met Andy and Sarah,

3324
02:42:35,200 --> 02:42:37,920
Speaker 3: we sat behind a bar in an unpaved alleyway. We

3325
02:42:38,040 --> 02:42:41,120
Speaker 3: drank beer out of sippy cups because selling beer is

3326
02:42:41,160 --> 02:42:43,920
Speaker 3: still banned at the local COVID regulations, but apparently the

3327
02:42:43,959 --> 02:42:46,879
Speaker 3: cops don't check sippy cups. We drank far too much,

3328
02:42:46,920 --> 02:42:48,800
Speaker 3: in fact, and the next day I work up with

3329
02:42:48,800 --> 02:42:51,920
Speaker 3: a headache and a blurry photo of me, Robert and

3330
02:42:51,920 --> 02:42:54,440
Speaker 3: Andy engaged in a post which was half hug and

3331
02:42:54,480 --> 02:42:58,000
Speaker 3: half mutual support structure. We walked home and according to

3332
02:42:58,040 --> 02:42:59,880
Speaker 3: my phone, at some point we took photos of a

3333
02:43:00,720 --> 02:43:04,760
Speaker 3: and and hopefully unrelated incident. At some point I started bleeding.

3334
02:43:05,720 --> 02:43:08,720
Speaker 3: It was immediately obvious that Andy needed the chance to

3335
02:43:08,800 --> 02:43:12,200
Speaker 3: blow off some steam. Over the last year and change.

3336
02:43:12,320 --> 02:43:14,959
Speaker 3: He is chronicled every stage of the coup in its aftermath,

3337
02:43:15,400 --> 02:43:19,400
Speaker 3: In early videos, we see joyous protests, moments of resistance,

3338
02:43:19,440 --> 02:43:22,480
Speaker 3: and splendor in the streets of cities like Miawiti. Later

3339
02:43:22,920 --> 02:43:27,560
Speaker 3: we see violence, death, and guerrilla warfare. Andy didn't have

3340
02:43:27,640 --> 02:43:31,039
Speaker 3: what you would call an easy childhood, thanks in part

3341
02:43:31,080 --> 02:43:33,440
Speaker 3: to me and Mar's long history of revolutions being crushed

3342
02:43:33,480 --> 02:43:37,120
Speaker 3: by the army. People there, like people everywhere, want to

3343
02:43:37,160 --> 02:43:40,200
Speaker 3: be free and determine their own futures. And so each

3344
02:43:40,280 --> 02:43:43,520
Speaker 3: generation has its own uprising, and each generation has its

3345
02:43:43,520 --> 02:43:46,640
Speaker 3: own massacre and very little progress to show for it.

3346
02:43:47,440 --> 02:43:51,200
Speaker 8: I was born in two thousand, so when I was seven,

3347
02:43:51,200 --> 02:43:53,720
Speaker 8: two thousand and seven, there was a revolution. It's called

3348
02:43:53,720 --> 02:43:57,440
Speaker 8: Saffron Revolution. It's it wasn't it wasn't like this, you know,

3349
02:43:57,480 --> 02:44:00,080
Speaker 8: it wasn't like what happened now. But like, they were

3350
02:44:00,120 --> 02:44:01,440
Speaker 8: a lot of people that were involved in it, a

3351
02:44:01,480 --> 02:44:04,959
Speaker 8: lot of people that killed, a lot of people left

3352
02:44:05,120 --> 02:44:08,320
Speaker 8: Miamar and came to the refugee counts in here, and

3353
02:44:08,680 --> 02:44:10,320
Speaker 8: we were one of the families that came to the

3354
02:44:10,320 --> 02:44:11,080
Speaker 8: refugee counts.

3355
02:44:12,080 --> 02:44:16,960
Speaker 1: And yeah, inta, Yeah, Andy's mother is Bumah, the dominant

3356
02:44:16,959 --> 02:44:19,840
Speaker 1: ethnic group in Myanmar, due to their decades long control

3357
02:44:19,879 --> 02:44:23,360
Speaker 1: of the military and government. His father is Karin, the

3358
02:44:23,400 --> 02:44:26,240
Speaker 1: ethnic group once used by the British government as soldiers.

3359
02:44:26,600 --> 02:44:29,040
Speaker 1: Since nineteen forty nine, the Karin have fought a war

3360
02:44:29,040 --> 02:44:32,200
Speaker 1: in the mountains against the Totmada. Their name is often

3361
02:44:32,320 --> 02:44:35,760
Speaker 1: anglicized to be spelled just like the English name Karen, which,

3362
02:44:35,879 --> 02:44:39,720
Speaker 1: given present Internet trends, makes explaining the conflict sometimes awkward.

3363
02:44:40,520 --> 02:44:44,840
Speaker 1: Andy primarily identifies as and was raised Bumah. His family

3364
02:44:44,920 --> 02:44:47,800
Speaker 1: left after the Saffron Revolution. They did not flee to

3365
02:44:47,959 --> 02:44:51,800
Speaker 1: escape political repression, but because the economy had collapsed. This

3366
02:44:51,840 --> 02:44:54,480
Speaker 1: put them in an awkward position in the camps, which

3367
02:44:54,520 --> 02:44:57,640
Speaker 1: were filled mostly with Karin people who had fled state violence.

3368
02:44:58,320 --> 02:45:02,720
Speaker 8: We weren't refugees. We were more like, how do you say,

3369
02:45:02,760 --> 02:45:06,560
Speaker 8: like economic refugees. You know, we go because not because

3370
02:45:06,600 --> 02:45:09,080
Speaker 8: our village has been burned down and our family has

3371
02:45:09,120 --> 02:45:11,720
Speaker 8: been killed, you know. So then if we were to

3372
02:45:11,760 --> 02:45:14,440
Speaker 8: go back to Yangon, we still could find a job.

3373
02:45:14,480 --> 02:45:17,520
Speaker 8: We still could find you know. But then for these

3374
02:45:17,520 --> 02:45:21,680
Speaker 8: current people, like this place is the only place that

3375
02:45:21,680 --> 02:45:24,280
Speaker 8: they could exist at that moment, right and probably still

3376
02:45:24,280 --> 02:45:27,959
Speaker 8: now too. So uh yeah, so they said that, but

3377
02:45:27,959 --> 02:45:31,520
Speaker 8: that education wasn't very good. There is the life wasn't good,

3378
02:45:31,680 --> 02:45:32,920
Speaker 8: you know, it wasn't It wasn't.

3379
02:45:33,200 --> 02:45:33,960
Speaker 25: It was very bad.

3380
02:45:34,040 --> 02:45:36,480
Speaker 8: Honestly, it was very bad. It was a lot of violence,

3381
02:45:36,520 --> 02:45:39,160
Speaker 8: a lot of hate, a lot of understandable, you know,

3382
02:45:39,280 --> 02:45:41,440
Speaker 8: like these people have gone through so much shit and

3383
02:45:41,480 --> 02:45:45,000
Speaker 8: so much trauma that and nothing. No one is coming

3384
02:45:45,040 --> 02:45:47,880
Speaker 8: there too, but fix that. So they had a lot

3385
02:45:47,920 --> 02:45:50,920
Speaker 8: of anger, They had a lot of problems. But my

3386
02:45:51,080 --> 02:45:53,480
Speaker 8: mom said, yeah, we're going back because the education he

3387
02:45:53,640 --> 02:45:56,680
Speaker 8: is very bad. And if you go back to Meamar,

3388
02:45:56,720 --> 02:45:59,520
Speaker 8: at least, you know, if you do like the thing

3389
02:45:59,560 --> 02:46:02,280
Speaker 8: that people or do, maybe you'll get somewhere. Yeah, in

3390
02:46:02,320 --> 02:46:04,960
Speaker 8: the future. Here there's no future, so she said, So

3391
02:46:05,000 --> 02:46:08,360
Speaker 8: we went back and I stayed in yourmar for like

3392
02:46:08,360 --> 02:46:09,359
Speaker 8: four years.

3393
02:46:09,800 --> 02:46:12,840
Speaker 1: Andy had never been very political. His family was more

3394
02:46:12,920 --> 02:46:15,520
Speaker 1: or less neutral, tending to side with the military more

3395
02:46:15,520 --> 02:46:17,959
Speaker 1: often than not out of a sense of inertia. Me

3396
02:46:18,040 --> 02:46:22,000
Speaker 1: and martended to cartwheel between attempts at democracy and military dictatorship.

3397
02:46:22,360 --> 02:46:25,640
Speaker 1: So when the world media celebrated their first democratic elections

3398
02:46:25,680 --> 02:46:29,080
Speaker 1: in twenty five years in twenty fifteen, Andy was not

3399
02:46:29,200 --> 02:46:30,480
Speaker 1: particularly excited.

3400
02:46:31,040 --> 02:46:34,720
Speaker 8: Yeah, So, I mean, we did realize that there was

3401
02:46:34,840 --> 02:46:38,280
Speaker 8: a change in the country, right, because we grew up

3402
02:46:38,320 --> 02:46:41,360
Speaker 8: in the military to take your ship. But then one

3403
02:46:41,600 --> 02:46:42,760
Speaker 8: contents did you take over?

3404
02:46:43,200 --> 02:46:43,680
Speaker 25: Took over.

3405
02:46:44,440 --> 02:46:47,800
Speaker 8: There were some changes, like the phones got cheaper, the

3406
02:46:47,879 --> 02:46:50,879
Speaker 8: internet got cheaper, and if you look back then you

3407
02:46:50,920 --> 02:46:54,920
Speaker 8: can see big, big changes. But the thing is it

3408
02:46:55,000 --> 02:46:58,760
Speaker 8: was never real democracy. And I think a lot of

3409
02:46:58,800 --> 02:47:02,560
Speaker 8: people in and the western countries thought that it was

3410
02:47:02,640 --> 02:47:04,840
Speaker 8: democracy when al Sansugi took over.

3411
02:47:05,320 --> 02:47:08,520
Speaker 1: Asong Suci came to prominence during a nineteen eighty eight

3412
02:47:08,600 --> 02:47:11,400
Speaker 1: uprising against the military, which ended in bloodshed in the

3413
02:47:11,400 --> 02:47:14,880
Speaker 1: streets of Yangon, and she'd been a long time democratic activist.

3414
02:47:15,280 --> 02:47:18,360
Speaker 1: As Andy noted, westerners celebrated her election as the first

3415
02:47:18,400 --> 02:47:21,360
Speaker 1: democratic head of state for mianmar She even won a

3416
02:47:21,400 --> 02:47:24,360
Speaker 1: Nobel prize, but the agreement her party had made with

3417
02:47:24,400 --> 02:47:28,800
Speaker 1: the military gave the general significant permanent control over the government.

3418
02:47:29,120 --> 02:47:30,840
Speaker 8: But I think most of the people in the country

3419
02:47:30,920 --> 02:47:35,160
Speaker 8: knew it wasn't real democracy because you know, the military

3420
02:47:35,160 --> 02:47:38,760
Speaker 8: always had twenty five percent twenty fight seats in the parliament,

3421
02:47:38,840 --> 02:47:41,160
Speaker 8: right like they were always they were in charge of

3422
02:47:41,200 --> 02:47:44,760
Speaker 8: electricity and all these all these big things, a weapons

3423
02:47:44,920 --> 02:47:47,560
Speaker 8: army like the military itself. They are in charge of

3424
02:47:47,600 --> 02:47:49,920
Speaker 8: all these things and they make it very clear.

3425
02:47:50,080 --> 02:47:53,160
Speaker 1: And even with a Nobel Prize on song, Suci did

3426
02:47:53,200 --> 02:47:56,000
Speaker 1: not fight to stop the top Mada from pursuing their

3427
02:47:56,040 --> 02:47:59,880
Speaker 1: decades long wars against the ethnic armed organizations in the Hills,

3428
02:48:00,400 --> 02:48:02,760
Speaker 1: nor did she act to stop their ethnic cleansing of

3429
02:48:02,800 --> 02:48:05,600
Speaker 1: the Rohinga people. In fact, she and others in her

3430
02:48:05,640 --> 02:48:09,240
Speaker 1: party didn't even call them Rohinga. They called them Bengali

3431
02:48:09,480 --> 02:48:12,960
Speaker 1: and insisted they were illegally residing in Myanmar, despite mountains

3432
02:48:13,000 --> 02:48:15,520
Speaker 1: of evidence documenting a group by that name living in

3433
02:48:15,520 --> 02:48:18,840
Speaker 1: what is now the Rakian State. I think most Americans

3434
02:48:18,840 --> 02:48:21,600
Speaker 1: and Westerners in general can empathize with the feeling of

3435
02:48:21,600 --> 02:48:25,200
Speaker 1: electing someone who promises change and then getting very little

3436
02:48:25,240 --> 02:48:26,160
Speaker 1: of what you'd expected.

3437
02:48:26,560 --> 02:48:29,760
Speaker 8: I think Alsensuci used to be this hope that that

3438
02:48:29,959 --> 02:48:32,720
Speaker 8: was like the opposition against the military. But I think

3439
02:48:32,959 --> 02:48:38,360
Speaker 8: when she got power, she couldn't do all the things

3440
02:48:38,400 --> 02:48:41,880
Speaker 8: that she promised to do or like, you know, we

3441
02:48:42,240 --> 02:48:45,800
Speaker 8: looked at her before, we looked at her as something,

3442
02:48:45,879 --> 02:48:49,800
Speaker 8: you know, something hope for everyone, you know, for all

3443
02:48:49,800 --> 02:48:53,039
Speaker 8: the ethnic groups and for everyone in the country. But

3444
02:48:53,160 --> 02:48:57,920
Speaker 8: then when she became empower, she mainly focused all these

3445
02:48:58,040 --> 02:49:01,600
Speaker 8: changes for the but my people, well, you know, the

3446
02:49:02,280 --> 02:49:06,199
Speaker 8: mainland people, like the military was still fucking killing people

3447
02:49:06,640 --> 02:49:09,920
Speaker 8: and killing ethnic groups. Did they do something, you know,

3448
02:49:10,080 --> 02:49:13,000
Speaker 8: like so then for the athnic groups, what's the difference?

3449
02:49:13,600 --> 02:49:15,920
Speaker 1: And so while Andy was hopeful that his country might

3450
02:49:15,920 --> 02:49:18,520
Speaker 1: take a better path, he was not exactly convinced that

3451
02:49:18,600 --> 02:49:21,840
Speaker 1: things were going to get better. Conflict within his family

3452
02:49:21,879 --> 02:49:24,039
Speaker 1: eventually pushed him to make the decision to leave.

3453
02:49:24,680 --> 02:49:26,960
Speaker 8: My dad was very abusive, right, he would be the

3454
02:49:26,959 --> 02:49:29,560
Speaker 8: shit out of my mouth every day like that. It

3455
02:49:29,600 --> 02:49:31,680
Speaker 8: was fine, Like it was fine when we were younger.

3456
02:49:31,680 --> 02:49:33,400
Speaker 8: We couldn't do anything, you know, we just kind of

3457
02:49:33,800 --> 02:49:35,840
Speaker 8: watched it, right, But the older we got, the more

3458
02:49:35,879 --> 02:49:39,360
Speaker 8: we involved, the more we try to stop it. But

3459
02:49:39,400 --> 02:49:41,760
Speaker 8: then we were fight with him too, you know. And

3460
02:49:42,160 --> 02:49:44,760
Speaker 8: so at some point it became too much, and so

3461
02:49:44,840 --> 02:49:49,480
Speaker 8: I left my home I think in twenty sixteen, just

3462
02:49:49,520 --> 02:49:51,879
Speaker 8: by myself, and I was like, I've been to messat,

3463
02:49:52,080 --> 02:49:53,360
Speaker 8: I will go back here, you know.

3464
02:49:53,760 --> 02:49:56,039
Speaker 1: So Andy lived across the border on his own for

3465
02:49:56,120 --> 02:49:58,840
Speaker 1: more than five years. He'd fallen in love, gotten a

3466
02:49:58,840 --> 02:50:00,680
Speaker 1: home with his own and set him himself up and

3467
02:50:00,720 --> 02:50:03,040
Speaker 1: the sort of odd jobs you can do without papers

3468
02:50:03,240 --> 02:50:06,240
Speaker 1: or legal residency and that's where things were for him

3469
02:50:06,280 --> 02:50:08,520
Speaker 1: when the top Madag carried out their coup in early

3470
02:50:08,600 --> 02:50:09,640
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one.

3471
02:50:09,959 --> 02:50:14,000
Speaker 8: Twenty twenty one February. First, I was a messout I

3472
02:50:14,120 --> 02:50:17,280
Speaker 8: was here, and yeah, in the morning, I woke up,

3473
02:50:17,600 --> 02:50:20,240
Speaker 8: called me my girlfriend and as she said, the military

3474
02:50:20,320 --> 02:50:23,000
Speaker 8: just did a coup in your country. You should call

3475
02:50:23,000 --> 02:50:23,480
Speaker 8: your family.

3476
02:50:23,840 --> 02:50:26,560
Speaker 1: The military claimed voter fraud and used that as the

3477
02:50:26,560 --> 02:50:29,720
Speaker 1: pretext to stay in power. It's a situation that should

3478
02:50:29,720 --> 02:50:33,520
Speaker 1: be unsettlingly familiar to most of our audience. For a while,

3479
02:50:33,640 --> 02:50:36,280
Speaker 1: Safe in Maysat, Andy watched it in horror as he

3480
02:50:36,320 --> 02:50:38,560
Speaker 1: texted with friends and family across the border.

3481
02:50:38,640 --> 02:50:42,160
Speaker 8: The arrested Ansensujin, all the big leaders right at the top,

3482
02:50:42,400 --> 02:50:44,520
Speaker 8: So we were kind of like, okay, is someone going

3483
02:50:44,560 --> 02:50:46,760
Speaker 8: to tell us what to do? And especially for us,

3484
02:50:47,000 --> 02:50:51,000
Speaker 8: we didn't have any experiences. We didn't know anything about

3485
02:50:51,160 --> 02:50:53,280
Speaker 8: any of this that I'm talking about right now. I

3486
02:50:53,320 --> 02:50:56,000
Speaker 8: didn't have any knowledge of that. But yeah, so after

3487
02:50:56,440 --> 02:50:59,640
Speaker 8: I think six day, the military cut off the internet

3488
02:51:00,080 --> 02:51:02,760
Speaker 8: for like two days, and I've lost our contact with

3489
02:51:02,879 --> 02:51:06,520
Speaker 8: everyone inside, my family, my friends, And that's the night

3490
02:51:06,560 --> 02:51:08,680
Speaker 8: I started playing it, like I started thinking, oh fuck,

3491
02:51:08,720 --> 02:51:11,920
Speaker 8: I should go back. And I saw the protest photos

3492
02:51:11,920 --> 02:51:14,640
Speaker 8: from Yangon. They looked amazing, right, and I'm like, I'm

3493
02:51:14,680 --> 02:51:17,120
Speaker 8: a photographer. I should be there and you know, document that.

3494
02:51:19,320 --> 02:51:21,720
Speaker 3: While Andy was staring at the protest photos from the

3495
02:51:21,760 --> 02:51:25,640
Speaker 3: capital of Mianmar Napo door, as well as Miawity and

3496
02:51:25,680 --> 02:51:28,400
Speaker 3: the largest city, Yang Gone, wondering he should take his

3497
02:51:28,480 --> 02:51:31,360
Speaker 3: camera and document yet another rising for democracy in his

3498
02:51:31,400 --> 02:51:34,200
Speaker 3: home country. A young woman named a Mirror was in

3499
02:51:34,240 --> 02:51:37,120
Speaker 3: the thick of those protests and Yang Gone when the

3500
02:51:37,160 --> 02:51:41,960
Speaker 3: coup started. A Mirror Age, seventeen, had just finished high school.

3501
02:51:42,680 --> 02:51:45,800
Speaker 3: She was looking forward to university and more pressingly, looking

3502
02:51:45,800 --> 02:51:48,480
Speaker 3: forward to playing futsal with her friends. She liked to

3503
02:51:48,520 --> 02:51:51,960
Speaker 3: spend a day's crafting, she says, making little things to

3504
02:51:52,040 --> 02:51:55,600
Speaker 3: gift or to keep, Like every other day. When she

3505
02:51:55,720 --> 02:51:58,959
Speaker 3: woke up, she spent ten minutes in medication before facing

3506
02:51:59,000 --> 02:52:02,240
Speaker 3: the world on the first February Long Sam Stukey was

3507
02:52:02,280 --> 02:52:06,119
Speaker 3: her hero, she says in our interview. Her boyfriend translated

3508
02:52:06,200 --> 02:52:09,240
Speaker 3: for her. We'll get to their story later, but when

3509
02:52:09,240 --> 02:52:11,800
Speaker 3: the coup began, they lived the world apart, but they

3510
02:52:11,879 --> 02:52:15,560
Speaker 3: joined the whole generation in feeling enraged by Tatmador, trying

3511
02:52:15,600 --> 02:52:18,560
Speaker 3: to rip the freedom their parents had fought for from them.

3512
02:52:18,800 --> 02:52:22,000
Speaker 3: A mirror took her rage into the street. Someone gave

3513
02:52:22,000 --> 02:52:23,240
Speaker 3: her a bullhorn.

3514
02:52:23,160 --> 02:52:26,520
Speaker 5: Because of her voice, and then she became the leader,

3515
02:52:26,959 --> 02:52:28,760
Speaker 5: you know with the bullhorn.

3516
02:52:28,920 --> 02:52:31,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, what kind of stuff would you say to the

3517
02:52:31,440 --> 02:52:32,480
Speaker 1: boat through the bullhorn?

3518
02:52:32,879 --> 02:52:47,240
Speaker 5: Hello, you don't want you She's saying, uh, this is

3519
02:52:47,320 --> 02:52:53,160
Speaker 5: and fell and then uh uh that the erascuing that

3520
02:52:53,360 --> 02:52:56,600
Speaker 5: Succi is a anfel not fair.

3521
02:52:56,879 --> 02:53:00,600
Speaker 3: Okay, got yeah, okay, yeah.

3522
02:53:01,360 --> 02:53:06,280
Speaker 5: And then she believed that, Uh, she believed in what

3523
02:53:06,520 --> 02:53:13,680
Speaker 5: Dar Sansuci said, like everything is possible, and we haven't

3524
02:53:13,800 --> 02:53:18,160
Speaker 5: do anything. We haven't studied yet, and then but when

3525
02:53:18,200 --> 02:53:21,120
Speaker 5: we study it and then we can finish it, so

3526
02:53:21,320 --> 02:53:22,480
Speaker 5: everything is possible.

3527
02:53:23,120 --> 02:53:25,720
Speaker 4: So that's what she believed in.

3528
02:53:26,040 --> 02:53:29,560
Speaker 5: So she went on the road and then she protests.

3529
02:53:29,959 --> 02:53:33,400
Speaker 3: Across the city from a mirror on Coude. Miowk's girlfriend

3530
02:53:33,440 --> 02:53:35,600
Speaker 3: woke him up with the news that the government they'd

3531
02:53:35,720 --> 02:53:39,040
Speaker 3: voted for had been arrested. We're calling him Yauk here

3532
02:53:39,640 --> 02:53:42,640
Speaker 3: because that's his name. In the revolution, everyone has one.

3533
02:53:43,240 --> 02:53:46,879
Speaker 3: A mirror's his baby, because she's so young yet so fierce.

3534
02:53:48,240 --> 02:53:52,200
Speaker 3: If you're wondering means monkey. These revolutionaries who have risked

3535
02:53:52,200 --> 02:53:54,560
Speaker 3: life and limb for each other didn't know the legal

3536
02:53:54,640 --> 02:53:57,400
Speaker 3: names of the people they call their revolution family because

3537
02:53:57,400 --> 02:54:00,720
Speaker 3: it's safer that way, and we don't either. Me, I

3538
02:54:00,760 --> 02:54:03,400
Speaker 3: could spend the night. Well, I'll let you hear Harry

3539
02:54:03,400 --> 02:54:03,760
Speaker 3: phrase it.

3540
02:54:03,840 --> 02:54:07,400
Speaker 6: Actually, I was just like I was chilling with my

3541
02:54:08,320 --> 02:54:11,640
Speaker 6: scare friend, you know, our jailing, and we were you know,

3542
02:54:12,080 --> 02:54:18,080
Speaker 6: Netflix and chare generary Neflis and I think it's a Sunday.

3543
02:54:18,160 --> 02:54:21,720
Speaker 6: I think it's Sunday Nephla and Cha, and we we

3544
02:54:21,840 --> 02:54:22,520
Speaker 6: slid together.

3545
02:54:22,800 --> 02:54:25,359
Speaker 2: If you didn't catch that there were Netflix and chilling.

3546
02:54:25,560 --> 02:54:29,680
Speaker 6: You know, I was literally not wakere but any louder show.

3547
02:54:29,920 --> 02:54:33,480
Speaker 6: I was so sleep but at the full am there's

3548
02:54:33,520 --> 02:54:36,520
Speaker 6: a whole poe rings and I certainly wake here the

3549
02:54:36,720 --> 02:54:40,640
Speaker 6: phone ring from my girlfriend, her anti call call called

3550
02:54:40,720 --> 02:54:45,520
Speaker 6: cald Heart, and she said there's a cool of fish. Oh,

3551
02:54:45,560 --> 02:54:48,280
Speaker 6: and she wake her and she told me there's a

3552
02:54:48,320 --> 02:54:52,200
Speaker 6: cool of I didn't, you know, I don't believe it.

3553
02:54:52,480 --> 02:54:53,000
Speaker 2: I believe it.

3554
02:54:53,000 --> 02:54:55,200
Speaker 6: I didn't believe it. So other than I chat the

3555
02:54:55,280 --> 02:54:59,240
Speaker 6: social media, oh ship or may I actually do this?

3556
02:55:00,480 --> 02:55:03,920
Speaker 6: I'm so angry and I'm so angry, you know. I

3557
02:55:04,040 --> 02:55:08,640
Speaker 6: was god to doll downstairs, and I told to my family,

3558
02:55:08,920 --> 02:55:12,600
Speaker 6: difficult of everyone's angry at those times. The internet they

3559
02:55:12,680 --> 02:55:13,160
Speaker 6: cut off.

3560
02:55:13,720 --> 02:55:15,959
Speaker 3: The next revolutionary we're going to mean is a fellow

3561
02:55:16,040 --> 02:55:20,039
Speaker 3: will call doctor Wonder because that's his revolution name. When

3562
02:55:20,040 --> 02:55:22,600
Speaker 3: the coups started, he was just waking up after a

3563
02:55:22,640 --> 02:55:25,000
Speaker 3: twenty four hour shift at the hospital and Yangon where

3564
02:55:25,000 --> 02:55:28,119
Speaker 3: he worked. Doctors were some of the earliest and most

3565
02:55:28,160 --> 02:55:32,480
Speaker 3: visible dissidents in the protests. Their rarity and therefore their

3566
02:55:32,480 --> 02:55:35,080
Speaker 3: relative value to the regime made them a potent symbol

3567
02:55:35,120 --> 02:55:38,960
Speaker 3: of the pro democracy movement, but, as Dr Wonder made clear,

3568
02:55:39,400 --> 02:55:42,240
Speaker 3: many older medical professionals, I'm not at all certain that

3569
02:55:42,400 --> 02:55:43,960
Speaker 3: resistance was a right move here.

3570
02:55:44,920 --> 02:55:48,800
Speaker 9: At the morning I saw the news that bad news,

3571
02:55:48,879 --> 02:55:53,920
Speaker 9: really really bad news for us. It was how would

3572
02:55:53,959 --> 02:56:00,480
Speaker 9: I say that day? Pro You know, yeah, they broke future.

3573
02:56:01,320 --> 02:56:04,440
Speaker 3: Doctors were some of the earliest, most visible dissidents in

3574
02:56:04,440 --> 02:56:08,680
Speaker 3: the pro democracy protests. Their rarity and relative value to

3575
02:56:08,720 --> 02:56:11,360
Speaker 3: the regime made them a potent symbol of the pro

3576
02:56:11,400 --> 02:56:16,279
Speaker 3: democracy movement, but as doctor Wonder made clear, many older

3577
02:56:16,360 --> 02:56:19,800
Speaker 3: medical professionals were not at all certain that resistance was

3578
02:56:19,800 --> 02:56:20,800
Speaker 3: a right move.

3579
02:56:21,320 --> 02:56:26,520
Speaker 9: On that money. We go back to our ah, our society,

3580
02:56:26,560 --> 02:56:33,280
Speaker 9: our hospital. We are shen guys, you know, all professors

3581
02:56:33,400 --> 02:56:37,720
Speaker 9: or conceranders. They not much interest about that. It was.

3582
02:56:37,800 --> 02:56:44,200
Speaker 9: They told us, you know, whoever rules our camfe, this

3583
02:56:44,280 --> 02:56:48,680
Speaker 9: is not our business. It is one of our seniors,

3584
02:56:49,080 --> 02:56:52,879
Speaker 9: doctors from our society for our department pool us like that.

3585
02:56:54,160 --> 02:56:58,800
Speaker 9: But we reply him, no, it should be the last time.

3586
02:56:59,440 --> 02:57:02,360
Speaker 3: If didn't care, he said it should be the last time,

3587
02:57:03,200 --> 02:57:05,280
Speaker 3: the last time kids had to die in the streets.

3588
02:57:05,800 --> 02:57:08,240
Speaker 3: They didn't want another generation to have to go through

3589
02:57:08,280 --> 02:57:11,280
Speaker 3: the same thing. So they got together a proposal, a

3590
02:57:11,360 --> 02:57:15,720
Speaker 3: sort of manifesto for peaceful, nonviolent resistance, and they submitted

3591
02:57:15,720 --> 02:57:16,560
Speaker 3: it to their seniors.

3592
02:57:17,560 --> 02:57:22,440
Speaker 9: We negotiated with our you know, young resident, our society,

3593
02:57:22,800 --> 02:57:28,160
Speaker 9: and we discussed about that and we plan to start

3594
02:57:28,160 --> 02:57:32,640
Speaker 9: with one of our prior movement before save a disagreement.

3595
02:57:32,720 --> 02:57:37,560
Speaker 9: We have got our red ribbon movement because we want

3596
02:57:37,600 --> 02:57:42,840
Speaker 9: not right peacefully on the media. Okay. We started like that,

3597
02:57:43,720 --> 02:57:50,080
Speaker 9: and then some of our seniors from our society, they

3598
02:57:50,160 --> 02:57:55,600
Speaker 9: were from Mandally Hospital. Okay, they accept our proposal. Yes,

3599
02:57:56,360 --> 02:58:02,160
Speaker 9: because our generation has already passed that difficulties before, but

3600
02:58:02,680 --> 02:58:05,320
Speaker 9: not your generation shouldn't accept that.

3601
02:58:06,600 --> 02:58:09,520
Speaker 3: Three days before the queue, TK got off a plane

3602
02:58:09,560 --> 02:58:12,680
Speaker 3: in San Francisco. He's from Me and Ma, but he

3603
02:58:12,720 --> 02:58:16,240
Speaker 3: lives in the Bay Area. Now, before you ask, he

3604
02:58:16,320 --> 02:58:18,680
Speaker 3: says that the Burmese restaurant there is not as good

3605
02:58:18,720 --> 02:58:19,720
Speaker 3: as stuff back home.

3606
02:58:20,240 --> 02:58:24,959
Speaker 5: It's only three days three days before, three days before

3607
02:58:25,000 --> 02:58:28,360
Speaker 5: I went back to the to the United States, and

3608
02:58:28,720 --> 02:58:32,520
Speaker 5: I wish I'm staying a youngle and doing the revolution

3609
02:58:32,800 --> 02:58:37,360
Speaker 5: and a participate in a everywhere that I can, but

3610
02:58:37,400 --> 02:58:41,240
Speaker 5: that I couldn't do from the long distance, you know.

3611
02:58:41,600 --> 02:58:44,600
Speaker 5: So that's all I can do for now.

3612
02:58:45,200 --> 02:58:47,760
Speaker 3: TK had just been in Me and Ma. He had

3613
02:58:47,800 --> 02:58:50,680
Speaker 3: connections to many people on the ground there, his friends

3614
02:58:50,680 --> 02:58:54,240
Speaker 3: with it, his family with it. When the government cut

3615
02:58:54,240 --> 02:58:57,080
Speaker 3: off into the access, he remained able to get good

3616
02:58:57,200 --> 02:59:01,040
Speaker 3: international reporting on the situation in his home country. Slowly

3617
02:59:01,640 --> 02:59:04,640
Speaker 3: he found ways to communicate with his friends and a

3618
02:59:04,680 --> 02:59:07,800
Speaker 3: growing core of the protesters taking to the streets.

3619
02:59:08,040 --> 02:59:12,879
Speaker 5: I was a keyboard fighter. I have no idea about

3620
02:59:12,879 --> 02:59:17,720
Speaker 5: a politics. I have no idea about the military stuff.

3621
02:59:18,240 --> 02:59:21,240
Speaker 3: This is a single most common sentiment we've heard across

3622
02:59:21,240 --> 02:59:24,600
Speaker 3: all the revolutionaries we've met. None of them considered themselves

3623
02:59:24,680 --> 02:59:27,760
Speaker 3: to be very political. Prior to the coup. They started

3624
02:59:27,800 --> 02:59:30,680
Speaker 3: marching in the street because a military coup was obviously bad,

3625
02:59:31,320 --> 02:59:33,880
Speaker 3: but they stayed there because the violence dished out by

3626
02:59:33,879 --> 02:59:37,039
Speaker 3: the state was so horrific. Save at their house in Masok.

3627
02:59:37,400 --> 02:59:39,800
Speaker 3: We talked to the boys and his brothers and cousins,

3628
02:59:40,480 --> 02:59:42,400
Speaker 3: all of whom were living in Napo door when the

3629
02:59:42,440 --> 02:59:45,160
Speaker 3: coup kicked off. It didn't take him long to try

3630
02:59:45,160 --> 02:59:45,800
Speaker 3: and join them.

3631
02:59:45,959 --> 02:59:47,960
Speaker 8: Then I went in. I went to Nyawiti, which is

3632
02:59:48,040 --> 02:59:51,600
Speaker 8: across the border in your marside, and I was there

3633
02:59:51,640 --> 02:59:55,800
Speaker 8: for a week and it was it was something else,

3634
02:59:55,879 --> 02:59:58,680
Speaker 8: like I've never been to protests now, I've never been

3635
02:59:59,600 --> 03:00:02,080
Speaker 8: involved in any of this thing, and I never thought

3636
03:00:02,280 --> 03:00:04,800
Speaker 8: I would be, you know, like I don't know. I

3637
03:00:04,800 --> 03:00:06,560
Speaker 8: always thought like I wasn't going to be a part

3638
03:00:06,560 --> 03:00:08,720
Speaker 8: of it. But when I went there the first day,

3639
03:00:08,760 --> 03:00:10,720
Speaker 8: I write there were two hundred thousand people on the

3640
03:00:10,720 --> 03:00:14,320
Speaker 8: street protesting. And then it's like, and if this big

3641
03:00:14,360 --> 03:00:17,800
Speaker 8: group of people walk in streets after street and everyone

3642
03:00:17,879 --> 03:00:20,400
Speaker 8: coming out of their house and we have this symbol

3643
03:00:20,520 --> 03:00:25,560
Speaker 8: like three fingers from Hangergang, I think, yeah, yeah, so

3644
03:00:25,879 --> 03:00:30,080
Speaker 8: that's like our symbol for democracy now or our movement now,

3645
03:00:30,440 --> 03:00:33,440
Speaker 8: and everyone come out of their house doing that and

3646
03:00:33,520 --> 03:00:38,200
Speaker 8: you know, like giving us water, food, everything. It was beautiful,

3647
03:00:38,240 --> 03:00:40,400
Speaker 8: like it was something else. It was something else. And

3648
03:00:40,440 --> 03:00:43,160
Speaker 8: then from that day I was like hook. I was like, Okay,

3649
03:00:43,200 --> 03:00:44,280
Speaker 8: this is what I'm going to do.

3650
03:00:44,360 --> 03:00:44,520
Speaker 12: Now.

3651
03:00:44,560 --> 03:00:47,800
Speaker 8: I'm going to be a photographer and I'm gonna in this,

3652
03:00:48,000 --> 03:00:50,080
Speaker 8: you know, and I'm gonna I'm going to take photo

3653
03:00:50,120 --> 03:00:52,520
Speaker 8: of these people and their stories and I'm gonna share

3654
03:00:52,520 --> 03:00:54,320
Speaker 8: it and that's.

3655
03:00:53,800 --> 03:00:54,840
Speaker 2: My part, that's my rule.

3656
03:00:55,600 --> 03:00:59,720
Speaker 3: Soon he found friends among the protesters. Within a few days,

3657
03:01:00,160 --> 03:01:02,199
Speaker 3: he was feeling a feeling that so many people felt

3658
03:01:02,200 --> 03:01:05,680
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty. It's a feeling you felt if you've

3659
03:01:05,720 --> 03:01:07,400
Speaker 3: ever been in the thick of a crowd of people

3660
03:01:07,600 --> 03:01:11,800
Speaker 3: filled with righteous anger and facing down overwhelmed police or soldiers.

3661
03:01:12,360 --> 03:01:14,800
Speaker 3: It's a sensation. I can't really described you you haven't

3662
03:01:14,800 --> 03:01:17,800
Speaker 3: experienced it, but I can say that there's no time

3663
03:01:17,840 --> 03:01:20,200
Speaker 3: that I've ever felt more empowered than the times I've

3664
03:01:20,200 --> 03:01:23,400
Speaker 3: been crushed shoulder with strangers, toe to toe with state

3665
03:01:23,520 --> 03:01:27,920
Speaker 3: violence and watch cops break and retreat. It's incredible. It's addictive,

3666
03:01:28,320 --> 03:01:30,080
Speaker 3: and if I'm monaged It's probably why Robert and I

3667
03:01:30,080 --> 03:01:32,480
Speaker 3: booked a flight to visit a stranger I've been dming

3668
03:01:32,520 --> 03:01:33,080
Speaker 3: on the ground.

3669
03:01:34,520 --> 03:01:37,640
Speaker 8: I think after three days, I met this group of people,

3670
03:01:38,120 --> 03:01:41,600
Speaker 8: young people like students trying to be lawyers and souf

3671
03:01:42,080 --> 03:01:44,840
Speaker 8: and I figured out that they were the ones trying

3672
03:01:44,840 --> 03:01:48,480
Speaker 8: to organize these big protests, like two hundred people, one

3673
03:01:48,560 --> 03:01:51,879
Speaker 8: hundred thousand people. They were the ones that's making that happen.

3674
03:01:52,000 --> 03:01:54,080
Speaker 8: So I started kind of following them, trying to get

3675
03:01:54,120 --> 03:01:58,040
Speaker 8: close because I wanted to get stories from them. And

3676
03:01:58,080 --> 03:02:01,000
Speaker 8: then they became they and they realize what I've been doing,

3677
03:02:01,040 --> 03:02:03,879
Speaker 8: They've been watching like and so they were like very welcome,

3678
03:02:04,240 --> 03:02:06,320
Speaker 8: and they took me to this hide out that they

3679
03:02:06,360 --> 03:02:08,800
Speaker 8: go to and then we will have discussions and meetings

3680
03:02:08,800 --> 03:02:10,280
Speaker 8: about what we should do the next day.

3681
03:02:10,560 --> 03:02:11,520
Speaker 25: Da da da da.

3682
03:02:12,160 --> 03:02:14,920
Speaker 8: But then kind of it's because it's a small town.

3683
03:02:15,000 --> 03:02:15,120
Speaker 2: Right.

3684
03:02:15,160 --> 03:02:18,560
Speaker 8: Slowly, I think police and military started realizing that we

3685
03:02:18,600 --> 03:02:27,760
Speaker 8: are that group too.

3686
03:02:30,040 --> 03:02:41,480
Speaker 24: Oh yeah, demo crazy wondering my josh oh do.

3687
03:02:44,520 --> 03:02:47,120
Speaker 3: So by now you're probably wondering what that coverage dust

3688
03:02:47,160 --> 03:02:52,200
Speaker 3: to do. It's a song that boys learned when we

3689
03:02:52,280 --> 03:02:55,200
Speaker 3: first took to the streets, but it tells the story

3690
03:02:55,200 --> 03:02:58,320
Speaker 3: of a previous revelation, one that didn't succeed.

3691
03:03:01,360 --> 03:03:02,119
Speaker 24: That's pretty good, guy.

3692
03:03:02,280 --> 03:03:06,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, can you tell us what that song's about, like,

3693
03:03:06,480 --> 03:03:08,360
Speaker 1: you know what the lyrics are and stuff in English?

3694
03:03:08,760 --> 03:03:10,040
Speaker 18: Yeah, yeah, we can try.

3695
03:03:10,400 --> 03:03:11,920
Speaker 1: I heard the word democracy in there.

3696
03:03:11,959 --> 03:03:12,520
Speaker 18: I'm pretty sure.

3697
03:03:12,760 --> 03:03:18,360
Speaker 23: Yeah, it's like all the.

3698
03:03:18,000 --> 03:03:21,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, do people use it for the Spring Revolution as

3699
03:03:21,920 --> 03:03:23,000
Speaker 3: well as Ida, Yeah.

3700
03:03:23,440 --> 03:03:24,520
Speaker 24: Because it's the same thing.

3701
03:03:27,879 --> 03:03:29,800
Speaker 8: Tell the world, and that's the.

3702
03:03:29,800 --> 03:03:32,160
Speaker 2: Name of the song, tell the world.

3703
03:03:32,200 --> 03:03:32,560
Speaker 18: It's good.

3704
03:03:33,000 --> 03:03:36,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I tell the world.

3705
03:03:36,879 --> 03:03:40,400
Speaker 8: So basically the song is like, yeah, they sang it

3706
03:03:40,440 --> 03:03:43,160
Speaker 8: in the back in the eighty eight and then it's

3707
03:03:43,200 --> 03:03:45,879
Speaker 8: like we used it quite a lot when when we

3708
03:03:45,879 --> 03:03:46,840
Speaker 8: were in the protest to.

3709
03:03:48,400 --> 03:03:48,640
Speaker 25: Yeah.

3710
03:03:48,800 --> 03:03:51,760
Speaker 8: The lyris are We'll keep fighting until the end of

3711
03:03:51,800 --> 03:03:54,600
Speaker 8: the world for the sake of history and revolution in

3712
03:03:54,640 --> 03:03:58,240
Speaker 8: our blood and of the fallen heroes who fought for

3713
03:03:58,280 --> 03:04:02,800
Speaker 8: the democracy. Oh, our dearest heroes. This is the learne

3714
03:04:02,800 --> 03:04:13,039
Speaker 8: of like heroes. Yeah and yeah. It goes on and yeah,

3715
03:04:13,080 --> 03:04:17,360
Speaker 8: basically saying like something like the history went wrong along

3716
03:04:17,400 --> 03:04:22,520
Speaker 8: the way, but we have to fix it. Yeah, like

3717
03:04:22,560 --> 03:04:25,440
Speaker 8: the country has shut its blood and how could they

3718
03:04:25,879 --> 03:04:30,360
Speaker 8: commit such violence to its own people, you know. Yeah,

3719
03:04:30,879 --> 03:04:33,520
Speaker 8: and yeah, like they say, like the blood on the

3720
03:04:33,600 --> 03:04:39,000
Speaker 8: rows and the streets are not dried yet. And for

3721
03:04:39,040 --> 03:04:43,480
Speaker 8: the sake of these people who die for the democracy,

3722
03:04:43,560 --> 03:04:46,760
Speaker 8: for fighting for democracy, for the sake of them, we.

3723
03:04:46,720 --> 03:04:48,360
Speaker 18: Have to keep fighting basically.

3724
03:04:48,480 --> 03:04:50,279
Speaker 8: Yeah.

3725
03:04:51,000 --> 03:04:53,880
Speaker 3: Now in their exile, they keep singing it to remember

3726
03:04:53,920 --> 03:04:56,520
Speaker 3: the first day of the revolution, when the fights are

3727
03:04:56,520 --> 03:04:59,120
Speaker 3: in the street, not the jungle, before they lost so

3728
03:04:59,200 --> 03:05:00,000
Speaker 3: many of their comrade.

3729
03:05:00,560 --> 03:05:01,119
Speaker 26: Yeah.

3730
03:05:01,160 --> 03:05:03,920
Speaker 8: And then there was the night protest in front of

3731
03:05:03,959 --> 03:05:04,600
Speaker 8: the police station.

3732
03:05:08,640 --> 03:05:09,240
Speaker 2: Attends.

3733
03:05:09,480 --> 03:05:12,119
Speaker 8: Yeah, oh this is they're singing.

3734
03:05:12,200 --> 03:05:13,080
Speaker 2: The song is the same.

3735
03:05:14,120 --> 03:05:20,760
Speaker 8: Yeah, it got very very heated.

3736
03:05:21,280 --> 03:05:24,199
Speaker 3: The protest friends were just talking about occurred in reality,

3737
03:05:24,400 --> 03:05:26,359
Speaker 3: but the song popped up all across the country.

3738
03:05:26,879 --> 03:05:32,080
Speaker 25: When you played it in Yangon, you will sing it, uh, yeah,

3739
03:05:32,120 --> 03:05:35,320
Speaker 25: they and yeah though it wasn't one guitar, it was

3740
03:05:35,360 --> 03:05:39,119
Speaker 25: a whole band. Well you have like protesters sitting down

3741
03:05:39,240 --> 03:05:42,720
Speaker 25: and then there's a group of people who were playing

3742
03:05:43,160 --> 03:05:45,959
Speaker 25: this and repeatedly there are a bunch of songs that

3743
03:05:46,040 --> 03:05:49,640
Speaker 25: will play and then there's like words that we would

3744
03:05:49,680 --> 03:05:51,800
Speaker 25: say and yeah, like slot.

3745
03:05:51,640 --> 03:05:57,080
Speaker 24: Myself, Yeah I not beam down.

3746
03:05:57,520 --> 03:06:00,520
Speaker 8: And you'll see from the footage how it's.

3747
03:06:00,520 --> 03:06:03,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, how did it make you feel singing it out.

3748
03:06:04,560 --> 03:06:05,400
Speaker 24: It's scary, you know.

3749
03:06:05,560 --> 03:06:10,840
Speaker 8: It's like the song, the song is very real. So

3750
03:06:11,480 --> 03:06:16,760
Speaker 8: like at first we didn't want to play the song.

3751
03:06:17,040 --> 03:06:22,360
Speaker 8: It's too dark, it's too it's too intense, right yeah,

3752
03:06:22,520 --> 03:06:26,280
Speaker 8: like yeah, but it's not like the lyrics are there,

3753
03:06:26,360 --> 03:06:27,640
Speaker 8: like you can see it.

3754
03:06:27,680 --> 03:06:27,879
Speaker 11: You know.

3755
03:06:27,959 --> 03:06:31,320
Speaker 8: It's like because we've been through it too, so it's

3756
03:06:31,440 --> 03:06:34,480
Speaker 8: very intense. And yeah, I think the first time I

3757
03:06:34,520 --> 03:06:37,959
Speaker 8: heard it, like I heard the song, I remember that

3758
03:06:38,000 --> 03:06:41,840
Speaker 8: we are feeling of yeah, I still have it like

3759
03:06:41,879 --> 03:06:44,480
Speaker 8: every time we're saying it now, like this is not

3760
03:06:44,680 --> 03:06:47,000
Speaker 8: one of the songs that we usually sing like. It's

3761
03:06:47,040 --> 03:06:47,840
Speaker 8: not a fun song.

3762
03:06:48,920 --> 03:06:56,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, the album lou.

3763
03:07:09,000 --> 03:07:20,599
Speaker 24: Bedia de Moore Crazy.

3764
03:07:22,680 --> 03:07:25,359
Speaker 3: On the next episode, which you'll be able to download tomorrow,

3765
03:07:25,920 --> 03:07:29,119
Speaker 3: we'll talk about how the Hunter began to clamp down

3766
03:07:29,120 --> 03:07:32,480
Speaker 3: on the protests. Now the protesters decided this struggle was

3767
03:07:32,480 --> 03:07:43,800
Speaker 3: too important to abandon and decided to fight back. Hi everyone,

3768
03:07:44,200 --> 03:07:47,280
Speaker 3: it's James here. I just wanted to note that lots

3769
03:07:47,280 --> 03:07:50,520
Speaker 3: of the words in this script are Burmese or Karen

3770
03:07:50,840 --> 03:07:52,879
Speaker 3: or Thai, and we've made every effort to make sure

3771
03:07:52,920 --> 03:07:55,600
Speaker 3: that we pronounce them correctly, but we're sure We've obviously

3772
03:07:55,720 --> 03:07:58,320
Speaker 3: made some mistakes along the way. That's not out of

3773
03:07:58,360 --> 03:08:00,600
Speaker 3: a lack of respect or I have a lack of

3774
03:08:00,640 --> 03:08:03,000
Speaker 3: re recording on my part, but we did want to

3775
03:08:03,000 --> 03:08:04,920
Speaker 3: note that what we've made a mistake, we're very sorry

3776
03:08:04,959 --> 03:08:05,320
Speaker 3: for doing.

3777
03:08:05,360 --> 03:08:13,840
Speaker 12: So this is it could happen here in Executive Disorder,

3778
03:08:14,000 --> 03:08:16,480
Speaker 12: our weekly newscast covering what's happening in the White House,

3779
03:08:16,480 --> 03:08:19,040
Speaker 12: the crumbling world, and what it means for you. I'm

3780
03:08:19,080 --> 03:08:22,400
Speaker 12: Garrison Davis today and joined by Mia Wong and Robert Evans,

3781
03:08:22,760 --> 03:08:26,760
Speaker 12: with a special sign by James Stout. This episode, we're

3782
03:08:26,760 --> 03:08:29,560
Speaker 12: covering the week of July fifteenth to July twenty second.

3783
03:08:30,400 --> 03:08:33,560
Speaker 12: On Monday morning, someone poured gasoline in front of an

3784
03:08:33,680 --> 03:08:36,440
Speaker 12: entrance to the Federal Immigration Court in New York City

3785
03:08:36,800 --> 03:08:39,600
Speaker 12: and lit the gasoline on fire. A forty three year

3786
03:08:39,600 --> 03:08:41,680
Speaker 12: old Army vet was arrested outside the building that has

3787
03:08:41,680 --> 03:08:44,840
Speaker 12: been charged with arson. The man brought a sign reading

3788
03:08:45,120 --> 03:08:48,640
Speaker 12: ice off our streets and also allegedly launched a bundle

3789
03:08:48,640 --> 03:08:51,280
Speaker 12: of fireworks and fired pellets from an air soft rifle.

3790
03:08:51,760 --> 03:08:54,800
Speaker 12: Three US service members were killed this week on an

3791
03:08:54,840 --> 03:08:57,920
Speaker 12: air base in Jordan as a result of Trump's war

3792
03:08:58,040 --> 03:09:01,240
Speaker 12: with Ron The New York Times, Sames reported that the

3793
03:09:01,240 --> 03:09:04,600
Speaker 12: Trump administration has tried to obtain phone and text records

3794
03:09:04,680 --> 03:09:07,680
Speaker 12: from New York Times journalists and their families to uncover

3795
03:09:07,720 --> 03:09:10,800
Speaker 12: the source of leaks regarding the security capabilities of the

3796
03:09:10,840 --> 03:09:15,240
Speaker 12: new Air Force one courtesy of the Qatari government. Cash

3797
03:09:15,240 --> 03:09:19,360
Speaker 12: Hotel's overseeing this investigation. This is a huge First Amendment breach.

3798
03:09:21,160 --> 03:09:25,520
Speaker 12: After multiple failed election campaigns, Katie Porter has announced she

3799
03:09:25,560 --> 03:09:29,520
Speaker 12: is leaving politics to become a book influencer Oh God,

3800
03:09:29,680 --> 03:09:34,600
Speaker 12: and has rebranded her Instagram account to Katie Porter turns

3801
03:09:34,640 --> 03:09:35,160
Speaker 12: the page.

3802
03:09:36,080 --> 03:09:39,560
Speaker 1: What okay? I mean bold move to be like, you

3803
03:09:39,640 --> 03:09:42,320
Speaker 1: know what, the growth industry of the future is books.

3804
03:09:44,959 --> 03:09:47,360
Speaker 1: I can't fault the desire there, but I just don't

3805
03:09:47,360 --> 03:09:49,640
Speaker 1: think history is going to really work that way, Katie.

3806
03:09:50,520 --> 03:09:54,040
Speaker 12: Secretary Kennedy has announced the Trump administration is pausing more

3807
03:09:54,040 --> 03:09:57,920
Speaker 12: than one billion dollars in medicaid payments to California and

3808
03:09:58,000 --> 03:10:02,280
Speaker 12: Minnesota due to quote societ dected fraud and non compliance.

3809
03:10:03,240 --> 03:10:04,600
Speaker 12: Play a short clip here.

3810
03:10:05,680 --> 03:10:08,920
Speaker 23: That includes more than eight hundred and sixty seven million

3811
03:10:08,959 --> 03:10:14,279
Speaker 23: dollars for California and over two hundred million dollars for Minnesota.

3812
03:10:14,360 --> 03:10:18,080
Speaker 23: If those states want that money. They need to provide

3813
03:10:18,160 --> 03:10:21,359
Speaker 23: documentation that these payments are legitimate.

3814
03:10:22,480 --> 03:10:25,560
Speaker 12: This will seriously harm, if not kill people, huge numbers

3815
03:10:25,560 --> 03:10:28,320
Speaker 12: of people. This is just a billion dollar cut to

3816
03:10:29,240 --> 03:10:32,080
Speaker 12: medicaid citing quote unquote fraud.

3817
03:10:32,440 --> 03:10:35,720
Speaker 1: It's aimed at blue states that the administration sees as enemies.

3818
03:10:35,879 --> 03:10:39,680
Speaker 12: You know, let's move on to our first main story

3819
03:10:39,720 --> 03:10:42,520
Speaker 12: and it'll be kind of a through line this episode.

3820
03:10:42,800 --> 03:10:46,600
Speaker 12: As I briefly mentioned last week, on Thursday, July sixteenth,

3821
03:10:46,640 --> 03:10:50,000
Speaker 12: Mark Rubio and the State Department held an international conference

3822
03:10:50,080 --> 03:10:54,840
Speaker 12: on the Scourge of Left Wing violence and Antifa Terrorism.

3823
03:10:55,040 --> 03:10:57,640
Speaker 12: This is just the latest escalation following Trump's designation of

3824
03:10:57,680 --> 03:11:01,840
Speaker 12: Antifa as a quote unquote terrorist group last year and

3825
03:11:01,879 --> 03:11:04,440
Speaker 12: the emboldening of law enforcements targeting of left wing groups

3826
03:11:04,920 --> 03:11:08,959
Speaker 12: the National Security Presidential Memorandum Number seven. According to the

3827
03:11:08,959 --> 03:11:12,920
Speaker 12: State Departments, this international conference was attended by representatives from

3828
03:11:13,040 --> 03:11:18,280
Speaker 12: sixty six countries. Over sixty senior ministers were invited, but

3829
03:11:18,400 --> 03:11:23,480
Speaker 12: only seventeen ministers actually were in attendance, though other quote

3830
03:11:23,520 --> 03:11:27,600
Speaker 12: political leaders and experts and law enforcement officials traveled to

3831
03:11:27,720 --> 03:11:31,840
Speaker 12: DC for the event, including the senior chief of the

3832
03:11:31,840 --> 03:11:35,840
Speaker 12: Hellenic Police from Greece. According to a reporter from the

3833
03:11:35,879 --> 03:11:39,760
Speaker 12: lahrnta newspaper, Mexico was invited to the summit, but the

3834
03:11:39,800 --> 03:11:45,440
Speaker 12: president declined to attend because the conference seemed quote more

3835
03:11:45,560 --> 03:11:49,080
Speaker 12: political than really related to combating criminal groups.

3836
03:11:49,320 --> 03:11:51,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, amazing, imagine that.

3837
03:11:52,400 --> 03:11:55,440
Speaker 12: And before the conference, Washington Post reported that many senior

3838
03:11:55,480 --> 03:11:58,760
Speaker 12: ministers were confused as to the purpose of the event

3839
03:11:58,840 --> 03:12:01,080
Speaker 12: and why they were invited to the conference, with two

3840
03:12:01,160 --> 03:12:04,400
Speaker 12: European diplomats telling the Post quote, we don't have Antifa

3841
03:12:04,560 --> 03:12:08,080
Speaker 12: end quote. Our law enforcement authorities have not focused on

3842
03:12:08,160 --> 03:12:10,640
Speaker 12: left wing terrorism because this is not considered a high

3843
03:12:10,720 --> 03:12:12,359
Speaker 12: priority threat in our countries.

3844
03:12:12,440 --> 03:12:14,280
Speaker 1: It doesn't really exist, yeah to us.

3845
03:12:15,800 --> 03:12:19,040
Speaker 12: So this international summit put on by Mark Rubio was

3846
03:12:19,080 --> 03:12:24,359
Speaker 12: titled the Ministerial on the Resurgence of Political Terrorism.

3847
03:12:24,560 --> 03:12:29,520
Speaker 1: Come very serious, completely leaving out the right, and also,

3848
03:12:29,560 --> 03:12:32,080
Speaker 1: as we'll talk about later, blaming a lot basically the

3849
03:12:32,200 --> 03:12:35,440
Speaker 1: entire modern left on Cuba because it's a mix of

3850
03:12:35,480 --> 03:12:38,480
Speaker 1: Marco and everyone trying to panter to Trump. A lot

3851
03:12:38,560 --> 03:12:41,120
Speaker 1: of these are grievances either rooted in the seventies or

3852
03:12:41,200 --> 03:12:43,920
Speaker 1: like a four month period in twenty twenty. Yes, right,

3853
03:12:44,000 --> 03:12:45,960
Speaker 1: Like that's their entire conception of the left.

3854
03:12:46,959 --> 03:12:50,320
Speaker 12: To open the summit, Rubio told this story of a

3855
03:12:50,360 --> 03:12:56,400
Speaker 12: civilizational threat posed by leftists, Marxists, and anarchist political violence,

3856
03:12:56,600 --> 03:12:59,440
Speaker 12: the violence that has laid dormant since the seventies but

3857
03:12:59,520 --> 03:13:04,800
Speaker 12: has now awoken. Rubio applauded our counter terrorism strategies in

3858
03:13:04,879 --> 03:13:08,800
Speaker 12: taking down quote unquote radical Islamist extremism. But while our

3859
03:13:08,800 --> 03:13:12,040
Speaker 12: focus has been on Isis and jihadism, law enforcement and

3860
03:13:12,080 --> 03:13:15,480
Speaker 12: the counter terrorism mapparatus has been unable or unwilling to

3861
03:13:15,600 --> 03:13:19,080
Speaker 12: go after left wing violence, let's hear from Rubio.

3862
03:13:20,200 --> 03:13:23,240
Speaker 27: For far too long, however, our counter terrorism doctrine has

3863
03:13:23,240 --> 03:13:26,160
Speaker 27: had a blind spot, a blind spot when it comes

3864
03:13:26,400 --> 03:13:30,920
Speaker 27: to extremist violence from the political left. Even today, the

3865
03:13:31,040 --> 03:13:34,000
Speaker 27: very idea that far left terrorism could be a serious

3866
03:13:34,040 --> 03:13:37,840
Speaker 27: threat is treated as a right wing fever dream, or worse,

3867
03:13:38,400 --> 03:13:42,200
Speaker 27: as a dangerous fascist conspiracy. It's treated this way by

3868
03:13:42,200 --> 03:13:46,039
Speaker 27: many in the press, by many an academia and our universities,

3869
03:13:46,440 --> 03:13:47,160
Speaker 27: and by many of.

3870
03:13:47,080 --> 03:13:48,439
Speaker 18: Our legacy institutions.

3871
03:13:49,440 --> 03:13:51,720
Speaker 27: You will, no doubt see the dogma rear its head

3872
03:13:51,760 --> 03:13:54,800
Speaker 27: in the coverage of this very conference, in spite of

3873
03:13:54,800 --> 03:13:57,800
Speaker 27: the clear and the undeniable reality, in spite of the

3874
03:13:57,840 --> 03:13:59,520
Speaker 27: objective numbers and statistics.

3875
03:14:00,640 --> 03:14:04,760
Speaker 12: One of the main tactics employed by Rubio, Stephen Miller,

3876
03:14:04,800 --> 03:14:08,560
Speaker 12: and others throughout this conference was the subtle conflation of

3877
03:14:09,080 --> 03:14:13,000
Speaker 12: mass casualty incidents from the far right with instances of

3878
03:14:13,080 --> 03:14:17,360
Speaker 12: property damage or, in the most extreme cases, targeted assassination

3879
03:14:17,879 --> 03:14:21,640
Speaker 12: attempts against political figures attributed to the far left, which

3880
03:14:21,760 --> 03:14:24,560
Speaker 12: people on the far right also do, by the way.

3881
03:14:25,080 --> 03:14:25,840
Speaker 1: Much more often.

3882
03:14:25,959 --> 03:14:30,600
Speaker 12: Yeah, Rubio said quote. A whole industry grew up in

3883
03:14:30,640 --> 03:14:33,360
Speaker 12: our countries around the study of extremism. We have think

3884
03:14:33,400 --> 03:14:37,720
Speaker 12: tanks and fellowships and journals and consultancies, with the unspoken

3885
03:14:37,840 --> 03:14:41,359
Speaker 12: understanding among them that only one kind of political violence

3886
03:14:41,440 --> 03:14:44,600
Speaker 12: was a true threat to the system. A bomb planted

3887
03:14:44,600 --> 03:14:47,160
Speaker 12: by a neo Nazi group was a nefarious and murderous

3888
03:14:47,200 --> 03:14:50,600
Speaker 12: act of evil, it is, But a bomb planted by

3889
03:14:50,640 --> 03:14:54,920
Speaker 12: a Marxist revolutionary, well, that's just merely a tragic excess

3890
03:14:54,959 --> 03:14:59,240
Speaker 12: of idealism. Perhaps its means were misplaced or over zealous,

3891
03:14:59,440 --> 03:15:02,720
Speaker 12: but it's ends were virtuous and just unquote.

3892
03:15:03,240 --> 03:15:06,400
Speaker 1: No one's ever said that, Mark, no one, no one

3893
03:15:06,400 --> 03:15:08,680
Speaker 1: in US politics has ever said that. You can find

3894
03:15:08,720 --> 03:15:12,080
Speaker 1: some maniacs have said anything about anything. But like, that's

3895
03:15:12,120 --> 03:15:14,080
Speaker 1: simply not a discourse in America.

3896
03:15:14,680 --> 03:15:19,560
Speaker 12: CVE researchers generally would not describe Marxist bombing plots as virtuous, and.

3897
03:15:19,760 --> 03:15:22,320
Speaker 1: Just I've never heard a bombing plot described as virtuous.

3898
03:15:22,400 --> 03:15:25,039
Speaker 1: The only act of what you could call terrorism I've

3899
03:15:25,080 --> 03:15:27,960
Speaker 1: ever seen in the recent days people call virtuous is

3900
03:15:28,320 --> 03:15:30,960
Speaker 1: you know what happened to that healthcare executive.

3901
03:15:30,840 --> 03:15:34,320
Speaker 21: Which Rubio does talk about, Yes, and that is definitely a.

3902
03:15:34,280 --> 03:15:36,000
Speaker 1: Lot of people cheered that on. But I can't think

3903
03:15:36,000 --> 03:15:38,120
Speaker 1: of a single instance in which a bombing has ever

3904
03:15:38,160 --> 03:15:40,960
Speaker 1: been cheered on. So and Marxist.

3905
03:15:40,600 --> 03:15:44,120
Speaker 4: Bombings, it's like, wait, when was the last time that

3906
03:15:44,200 --> 03:15:46,680
Speaker 4: Marxist like actually said like, this is not a real thing.

3907
03:15:46,920 --> 03:15:49,240
Speaker 1: It isn't that What Rubio was talking about is a

3908
03:15:49,360 --> 03:15:52,440
Speaker 1: spate of left wing affiliated bombings that occurred from nineteen

3909
03:15:52,480 --> 03:15:54,400
Speaker 1: seventy one to seventy two. He talks about this in

3910
03:15:54,400 --> 03:15:54,840
Speaker 1: the Cube of.

3911
03:15:54,840 --> 03:15:57,000
Speaker 4: Pity, and that's what he's said that hasn't happened, Like

3912
03:15:57,040 --> 03:16:01,119
Speaker 4: no weather underground has been above ground for like.

3913
03:16:01,600 --> 03:16:03,600
Speaker 1: That's entirely what all this is based on.

3914
03:16:03,840 --> 03:16:05,959
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, and it's like it's not a thing.

3915
03:16:05,879 --> 03:16:08,760
Speaker 1: Now, Yeah, is what old people remember about the left

3916
03:16:08,800 --> 03:16:09,560
Speaker 1: in the seventies.

3917
03:16:09,680 --> 03:16:12,760
Speaker 12: Yeah, you know, it's not directly referenced, but I know

3918
03:16:12,920 --> 03:16:16,320
Speaker 12: the DJ did make a big hubbub about foiling a

3919
03:16:16,560 --> 03:16:18,720
Speaker 12: quote unquote far left or it's kind of like an

3920
03:16:18,760 --> 03:16:23,680
Speaker 12: anti imperials like maoist bombing plot in California late last year. Also,

3921
03:16:23,720 --> 03:16:27,400
Speaker 12: a confidential human source who was working with law enforcement

3922
03:16:27,920 --> 03:16:31,400
Speaker 12: was involved in the planning of this operation, which was

3923
03:16:31,440 --> 03:16:34,560
Speaker 12: stopped by law enforcement before they could ever carry out

3924
03:16:34,640 --> 03:16:35,120
Speaker 12: the attack.

3925
03:16:35,240 --> 03:16:37,280
Speaker 4: And that's the closest thing to like an actual like

3926
03:16:37,440 --> 03:16:40,400
Speaker 4: Mark City. That is the closest recent thing. Yes, Like

3927
03:16:40,480 --> 03:16:44,200
Speaker 4: that's it, like in the last like very long number

3928
03:16:44,240 --> 03:16:45,600
Speaker 4: of years now.

3929
03:16:45,760 --> 03:16:51,400
Speaker 12: Rubio claimed that quote an extraordinary ideological prejudice was embedded

3930
03:16:51,400 --> 03:16:54,240
Speaker 12: in the way we talk about political violence and extremism,

3931
03:16:54,840 --> 03:16:57,840
Speaker 12: to the point that this prejudice has become the neutral

3932
03:16:57,879 --> 03:17:02,480
Speaker 12: and objective baseline quote so entrenched in the mainstream conventional

3933
03:17:02,480 --> 03:17:05,800
Speaker 12: wisdom that it came to be regarded as an apolitical fact.

3934
03:17:07,080 --> 03:17:10,680
Speaker 12: For an example of this, Rubio mentions the protests against

3935
03:17:10,720 --> 03:17:12,480
Speaker 12: the murder of George Floyd.

3936
03:17:13,320 --> 03:17:17,920
Speaker 27: Many people in positions of power have repeatedly dismissed acts

3937
03:17:17,920 --> 03:17:21,600
Speaker 27: of violence and even terrorism as legitimate forms of political expression,

3938
03:17:21,720 --> 03:17:24,800
Speaker 27: so long as they served a left wing cause.

3939
03:17:25,800 --> 03:17:26,879
Speaker 18: It is why during.

3940
03:17:26,680 --> 03:17:29,800
Speaker 27: Those George Floyd so called George Floyd Riots in the

3941
03:17:29,840 --> 03:17:33,560
Speaker 27: summer of twenty twenty, as criminals and extremists burned and

3942
03:17:33,680 --> 03:17:37,640
Speaker 27: looted their way through American America's great cities and nearly

3943
03:17:37,680 --> 03:17:41,600
Speaker 27: brought the country to its knees, city governments all across

3944
03:17:41,640 --> 03:17:45,920
Speaker 27: the country simply refused to prosecute the people conducting these

3945
03:17:45,920 --> 03:17:50,120
Speaker 27: acts of violence and terror. It is the reason for

3946
03:17:50,200 --> 03:17:53,440
Speaker 27: the now infamous image. Maybe you all recall this of

3947
03:17:53,480 --> 03:17:56,400
Speaker 27: a news anchor from a very prominent agency, a news

3948
03:17:56,400 --> 03:18:01,920
Speaker 27: anchor standing in the neighborhood consumed in flames. Meanwhile, the

3949
03:18:02,000 --> 03:18:06,279
Speaker 27: cryon on the bottom red that the protests were mostly peaceful.

3950
03:18:06,560 --> 03:18:08,640
Speaker 1: Can even say cairon right, My god.

3951
03:18:08,520 --> 03:18:12,000
Speaker 27: This was something worse than a double standard. Left Wing

3952
03:18:12,080 --> 03:18:16,160
Speaker 27: violence was not just excused, It was treated as sacricinct,

3953
03:18:16,800 --> 03:18:20,120
Speaker 27: a protected class unto itself.

3954
03:18:20,840 --> 03:18:25,480
Speaker 12: A protected class unto itself, protecting their ability to light

3955
03:18:25,560 --> 03:18:27,199
Speaker 12: trash on in the middle of a street.

3956
03:18:27,320 --> 03:18:30,440
Speaker 1: That's what happened. There weren't thousands of arrests and prosecutions.

3957
03:18:30,720 --> 03:18:33,640
Speaker 12: That is the Other thing is that the Trump administration

3958
03:18:33,840 --> 03:18:35,520
Speaker 12: did that a little bit, but this was at the

3959
03:18:35,600 --> 03:18:39,680
Speaker 12: end of twenty twenty. The Biden administration did tons and

3960
03:18:39,760 --> 03:18:42,920
Speaker 12: tons of like federal arrests, yes, with people involved in

3961
03:18:42,959 --> 03:18:46,800
Speaker 12: these protests, people who are still in jail. Meanwhile, the

3962
03:18:46,920 --> 03:18:49,400
Speaker 12: January six people are out of jail and have had pardons.

3963
03:18:50,520 --> 03:18:55,400
Speaker 12: Rubio referenced instances of political violence in Europe from recent time,

3964
03:18:56,160 --> 03:18:57,920
Speaker 12: like a firebomb attack on the home of a Greek

3965
03:18:57,920 --> 03:19:02,160
Speaker 12: politician that killed that politician's mother earlier this month. Rubio

3966
03:19:02,160 --> 03:19:05,600
Speaker 12: did not mention that four suspects have already been arrested

3967
03:19:06,200 --> 03:19:08,000
Speaker 12: and that this fire bombing was the first time in

3968
03:19:08,080 --> 03:19:10,760
Speaker 12: over a decade that someone was killed in an attack

3969
03:19:10,840 --> 03:19:15,320
Speaker 12: targeting a politician in Greece. Rubio also referenced a five

3970
03:19:15,400 --> 03:19:18,120
Speaker 12: day blackout in Berlin last winter caused by a power

3971
03:19:18,160 --> 03:19:21,080
Speaker 12: line sabotage. People claiming to be responsible for the attack

3972
03:19:21,080 --> 03:19:25,600
Speaker 12: associate to themselves with a far left eco extremist group Leslie.

3973
03:19:25,800 --> 03:19:29,120
Speaker 12: Rubio mentioned that in February of this year, quote a

3974
03:19:29,200 --> 03:19:32,560
Speaker 12: French twenty three year old succumbed to traumatic brain injuries

3975
03:19:32,920 --> 03:19:35,039
Speaker 12: beaten to death on the streets of Leone by a

3976
03:19:35,040 --> 03:19:38,560
Speaker 12: group of far left militant thugs. This twenty three year

3977
03:19:38,560 --> 03:19:41,600
Speaker 12: old was a neo fascist qute unquote activist, that's what

3978
03:19:41,640 --> 03:19:45,360
Speaker 12: he's referred to in local news coverage, who died two

3979
03:19:45,440 --> 03:19:48,280
Speaker 12: days after being brutalized in a large street brawl during

3980
03:19:48,320 --> 03:19:50,640
Speaker 12: a far right protest outside of a university event featuring

3981
03:19:50,680 --> 03:19:54,480
Speaker 12: a Palestinian lawmaker. Eleven anti fascists were arrested for this.

3982
03:19:55,959 --> 03:19:56,760
Speaker 2: Rubio tried to.

3983
03:19:56,720 --> 03:20:01,279
Speaker 12: Connect the current emerging threat of far left political terrorism

3984
03:20:01,720 --> 03:20:06,000
Speaker 12: to historical Marxist struggles in the twentieth century and particularly

3985
03:20:06,000 --> 03:20:09,640
Speaker 12: the nineteen seventies. Rubio name dropped to urban grilla groups

3986
03:20:09,680 --> 03:20:13,240
Speaker 12: in Central South America, FARC, the National Liberation Army, the

3987
03:20:13,280 --> 03:20:16,600
Speaker 12: Shining Path, Maoist guerrillas in Peru, as well as European

3988
03:20:16,640 --> 03:20:20,840
Speaker 12: groups like Italy's Red Brigades, the Red Army Faction in Germany,

3989
03:20:21,120 --> 03:20:24,600
Speaker 12: Marxist extreamists in Greece and in the US, the Weather Underground,

3990
03:20:24,600 --> 03:20:27,560
Speaker 12: the Black Liberation Army, and the Symbonese Liberation Army.

3991
03:20:28,959 --> 03:20:30,920
Speaker 27: And today we face a new wave of this old

3992
03:20:30,959 --> 03:20:35,160
Speaker 27: evil here in the United States. The share of left

3993
03:20:35,160 --> 03:20:38,080
Speaker 27: wing terrorist attacks and plots has risen to levels not

3994
03:20:38,240 --> 03:20:42,840
Speaker 27: seen in decades. In Germany, far left violence has jumped

3995
03:20:42,879 --> 03:20:46,080
Speaker 27: by more than forty percent in just the last year alone.

3996
03:20:46,959 --> 03:20:49,960
Speaker 27: In Greece, more than eighty percent of radical violence is

3997
03:20:50,000 --> 03:20:52,440
Speaker 27: now driven by far left and anarchist actors.

3998
03:20:53,480 --> 03:20:56,199
Speaker 18: These these are not abstract statistics.

3999
03:20:56,840 --> 03:20:59,879
Speaker 27: Americans have seen what those numbers mean, and all out

4000
03:20:59,920 --> 03:21:05,280
Speaker 27: of assault on our immigration officers, sniper attacks, explosives, armed ambushes,

4001
03:21:05,879 --> 03:21:09,840
Speaker 27: a transgender shooter opening fire on Catholic elementary school students

4002
03:21:09,920 --> 03:21:14,279
Speaker 27: as they pray, his gun marked with slogans like where

4003
03:21:14,400 --> 03:21:20,879
Speaker 27: is your God now? A healthcare executive executed in cold

4004
03:21:20,920 --> 03:21:25,680
Speaker 27: blood in the streets, multiple assassination attempts on a sitting president,

4005
03:21:26,120 --> 03:21:29,080
Speaker 27: and the murder of the greatest conservative activist of a generation.

4006
03:21:31,000 --> 03:21:34,160
Speaker 12: So there's a lot there. Anarchist violence certainly isn't new

4007
03:21:34,240 --> 03:21:38,480
Speaker 12: in Greece. No, and again in the American context, this

4008
03:21:38,520 --> 03:21:42,879
Speaker 12: little speech by Rubio conflates mass casualty events with property

4009
03:21:42,959 --> 03:21:47,520
Speaker 12: damage and isolated targeted violence. He references vague quote unquote

4010
03:21:47,600 --> 03:21:52,720
Speaker 12: all out assaults on immigration officers as in big protests

4011
03:21:52,720 --> 03:21:56,440
Speaker 12: in Minneapolis. He references a one sniper attack by a

4012
03:21:56,480 --> 03:22:00,840
Speaker 12: suicidal man who was not very political and leaned libertarian

4013
03:22:01,040 --> 03:22:05,080
Speaker 12: in Texas, here references a transgender shooter who also was

4014
03:22:05,120 --> 03:22:08,160
Speaker 12: not politically motivated in the traditional sense and initially planned

4015
03:22:08,160 --> 03:22:12,400
Speaker 12: to shoot up an LGBTQ music venue. The United Healthcare

4016
03:22:12,440 --> 03:22:15,840
Speaker 12: CEO assassination is arguably the closest thing here to like

4017
03:22:16,080 --> 03:22:17,800
Speaker 12: left wing motivated violence.

4018
03:22:17,959 --> 03:22:19,800
Speaker 1: It's definitely politically motivated, even.

4019
03:22:19,640 --> 03:22:23,440
Speaker 12: That suspect wasn't particularly like left wing politically, no belief

4020
03:22:23,480 --> 03:22:28,119
Speaker 12: in some political ideology was not the driving force behind

4021
03:22:28,160 --> 03:22:33,600
Speaker 12: that assassination. It wasn't ideologically motivated, but rather materially motivated

4022
03:22:33,879 --> 03:22:38,000
Speaker 12: based on interactions with our inhumane healthcare system. Trying to

4023
03:22:38,080 --> 03:22:41,680
Speaker 12: understand every public act of violence, whether that's a shooting

4024
03:22:41,800 --> 03:22:46,640
Speaker 12: or an assassination, just as existing in between this left

4025
03:22:46,720 --> 03:22:50,880
Speaker 12: right binary is a very limited way to actually try

4026
03:22:50,879 --> 03:22:55,119
Speaker 12: to understand public acts of violence, because not all shootings

4027
03:22:55,160 --> 03:22:59,160
Speaker 12: have an obvious ideological driver. Public acts of violence can

4028
03:22:59,200 --> 03:23:03,400
Speaker 12: be downs dream of someone's personal experiences and material conditions.

4029
03:23:03,840 --> 03:23:07,000
Speaker 12: As for the Trump assassinations, two have been from people

4030
03:23:07,040 --> 03:23:11,040
Speaker 12: who were largely moderate liberals, not leftists, and the first

4031
03:23:11,080 --> 03:23:13,160
Speaker 12: attempt assassination did not appear to have what we would

4032
03:23:13,200 --> 03:23:16,000
Speaker 12: originally consider to be a political motive. Again, from someone

4033
03:23:16,080 --> 03:23:19,680
Speaker 12: with a conservative background who was closer to what we

4034
03:23:19,680 --> 03:23:22,760
Speaker 12: would describe as having like a school shooter mentality. I'll

4035
03:23:22,760 --> 03:23:24,640
Speaker 12: talk about this a little bit later, but I think

4036
03:23:24,640 --> 03:23:29,400
Speaker 12: it's really important to understand that just because the target

4037
03:23:29,440 --> 03:23:33,359
Speaker 12: is a political figure does not mean it is political violence.

4038
03:23:33,879 --> 03:23:37,280
Speaker 12: The attempted assassination on Ronald Reagan is a key example

4039
03:23:37,280 --> 03:23:42,160
Speaker 12: of this, and investigations into the first Trump assassination found

4040
03:23:42,200 --> 03:23:45,800
Speaker 12: that the shooter, Thomas Crooks, searched online for a variety

4041
03:23:45,840 --> 03:23:48,360
Speaker 12: of events to commit a shooting at. In the month

4042
03:23:48,440 --> 03:23:50,720
Speaker 12: prior to the shooting, he did more than sixty ounite

4043
03:23:50,760 --> 03:23:53,960
Speaker 12: searches related to Biden Trump and information about the upcoming

4044
03:23:54,040 --> 03:23:58,959
Speaker 12: DNC and RNC conventions. Trump's campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania

4045
03:23:59,320 --> 03:24:01,920
Speaker 12: just happened to take place in the right place at

4046
03:24:01,959 --> 03:24:05,040
Speaker 12: the right time, And for someone who's just trying to

4047
03:24:05,080 --> 03:24:09,160
Speaker 12: do a high profile shooting, it might not even matter

4048
03:24:09,440 --> 03:24:14,279
Speaker 12: what the outcome of that attempted shooting is. These public

4049
03:24:14,320 --> 03:24:17,920
Speaker 12: acts of violence usually have a suicidal component, a driver

4050
03:24:18,080 --> 03:24:23,360
Speaker 12: self annihilation, while simultaneously gaining some final sense of meaning

4051
03:24:23,440 --> 03:24:26,680
Speaker 12: or purpose by crudely emblazoning yourself in history through a

4052
03:24:26,760 --> 03:24:30,960
Speaker 12: violent act. This kind of public suicidal violence can be

4053
03:24:31,480 --> 03:24:35,320
Speaker 12: a sort of final attempt of communing with the world.

4054
03:24:35,879 --> 03:24:39,320
Speaker 12: The AP summarized report published last year by the Center

4055
03:24:39,560 --> 03:24:43,320
Speaker 12: for Strategic and International Studies that found that left wing

4056
03:24:43,440 --> 03:24:47,080
Speaker 12: terrorist attacks as of July of last year had surpassed

4057
03:24:47,360 --> 03:24:49,240
Speaker 12: those from the far right for the first time in

4058
03:24:49,280 --> 03:24:51,240
Speaker 12: more than thirty years, But a closer look at that

4059
03:24:51,360 --> 03:24:55,760
Speaker 12: data showed that the uptick reflects a very low starting

4060
03:24:55,840 --> 03:24:59,720
Speaker 12: level and a concurrent drop on the far right. Quote,

4061
03:25:00,040 --> 03:25:02,600
Speaker 12: there was an average of zero point six left wing

4062
03:25:02,640 --> 03:25:06,400
Speaker 12: incidents annually from nineteen ninety four through two thousand, compared

4063
03:25:06,400 --> 03:25:08,680
Speaker 12: with an average of twenty point six on the right.

4064
03:25:08,840 --> 03:25:10,520
Speaker 4: The report shows from.

4065
03:25:10,400 --> 03:25:12,400
Speaker 12: Twenty sixteen to twenty twenty four, they were an average

4066
03:25:12,400 --> 03:25:15,039
Speaker 12: of four per year on the left and twenty two

4067
03:25:15,200 --> 03:25:18,400
Speaker 12: point seven per year on the right. Those numbers have

4068
03:25:18,480 --> 03:25:21,840
Speaker 12: dropped dramatically on the right as of early July twenty

4069
03:25:21,840 --> 03:25:25,560
Speaker 12: twenty five, with only one incident. Meanwhile, there had been

4070
03:25:25,840 --> 03:25:30,120
Speaker 12: five from the left. So yes, left wing attacks in

4071
03:25:30,160 --> 03:25:33,560
Speaker 12: twenty twenty five did outpace what that report as of

4072
03:25:33,640 --> 03:25:37,120
Speaker 12: July categorized as right wing attacks, but that was because

4073
03:25:37,120 --> 03:25:39,039
Speaker 12: there was a big drop off in right wing attacks

4074
03:25:39,080 --> 03:25:42,600
Speaker 12: once Trump came into office and a very small increase

4075
03:25:42,600 --> 03:25:44,959
Speaker 12: in attacks attributed to the left. And that is the

4076
03:25:44,959 --> 03:25:48,680
Speaker 12: sort of statistics that Rubio is using to make this push.

4077
03:25:50,000 --> 03:25:52,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know, like it's worth noting. It's like, okay,

4078
03:25:52,040 --> 03:25:53,960
Speaker 4: so why have there been less of these sort of

4079
03:25:54,040 --> 03:25:57,480
Speaker 4: like right wing political terrorism events And it's like, well,

4080
03:25:57,520 --> 03:25:59,160
Speaker 4: because ICE is just doing them instead.

4081
03:25:59,280 --> 03:26:01,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, the states doing the violence for them.

4082
03:26:01,600 --> 03:26:03,560
Speaker 4: Yeah. Like it's the same reason that you can look

4083
03:26:03,600 --> 03:26:06,800
Speaker 4: at the period in which sort of like jailhouse lynching

4084
03:26:06,920 --> 03:26:09,879
Speaker 4: suddenly like collapses, and the reason they collapse is that,

4085
03:26:09,920 --> 03:26:12,680
Speaker 4: you know, the US government starts executing those people, and

4086
03:26:13,120 --> 03:26:14,920
Speaker 4: you know, this is like a very explicit deal that's

4087
03:26:14,920 --> 03:26:17,640
Speaker 4: made between the state and you know, the specific kind

4088
03:26:17,640 --> 03:26:19,480
Speaker 4: of lynch mob is like we'll just carry out death

4089
03:26:19,600 --> 03:26:22,080
Speaker 4: like penalty sentences against these people if you stop storming

4090
03:26:22,080 --> 03:26:24,720
Speaker 4: prisons and lynching them in there. So you know, that's

4091
03:26:24,720 --> 03:26:26,640
Speaker 4: like what's happening here, right, is like you have people

4092
03:26:26,680 --> 03:26:30,520
Speaker 4: with mass shooter profiles. Who are you know, ICE officers

4093
03:26:30,680 --> 03:26:32,440
Speaker 4: shooting like immigrants in the streets.

4094
03:26:32,440 --> 03:26:32,640
Speaker 3: Now.

4095
03:26:33,000 --> 03:26:36,080
Speaker 12: Yeah, One thing that was really common throughout Rubio's whole

4096
03:26:36,080 --> 03:26:38,280
Speaker 12: speech and some of the follow up remarks by like

4097
03:26:38,320 --> 03:26:41,320
Speaker 12: Miller and Bessett is like a big thing that was

4098
03:26:41,440 --> 03:26:45,120
Speaker 12: undergirding their rhetoric was this assumption that if the target

4099
03:26:45,200 --> 03:26:47,840
Speaker 12: of violence is viewed as a right wing then the

4100
03:26:47,959 --> 03:26:51,440
Speaker 12: attacker must be left wing, and any attack that goes

4101
03:26:51,480 --> 03:26:54,360
Speaker 12: against what they would consider like a right wing symbol,

4102
03:26:54,400 --> 03:26:57,600
Speaker 12: whether that's Ice, whether that's the President, whatever, then whoever

4103
03:26:57,640 --> 03:27:00,840
Speaker 12: is attacking that symbol must be from the left wing

4104
03:27:00,879 --> 03:27:02,520
Speaker 12: or have some left wing motivation, And that's the way

4105
03:27:02,520 --> 03:27:05,080
Speaker 12: that they're trying to frame a lot of this. One

4106
03:27:05,080 --> 03:27:07,720
Speaker 12: of the old categories of violent extremism is called anti

4107
03:27:07,760 --> 03:27:10,959
Speaker 12: government violent extremism, which is a very broad category which

4108
03:27:11,000 --> 03:27:16,280
Speaker 12: can encompass some people who have explicit ideological drivers, but

4109
03:27:16,480 --> 03:27:20,400
Speaker 12: also can include people who are doing public suicidal violence,

4110
03:27:20,560 --> 03:27:23,920
Speaker 12: who will target the government or political figures as an

4111
03:27:23,959 --> 03:27:30,560
Speaker 12: expression of their own political and societal alienation. Someone who

4112
03:27:30,560 --> 03:27:33,920
Speaker 12: does this kind of public suicidal violence can often lack

4113
03:27:34,040 --> 03:27:37,880
Speaker 12: a recognizably coherent political philosophy that can be easily grafted

4114
03:27:37,879 --> 03:27:41,400
Speaker 12: on to our Democrat Republican binary, with there sometimes being

4115
03:27:41,440 --> 03:27:44,360
Speaker 12: a mix of political beliefs across the left right spectrum.

4116
03:27:45,000 --> 03:27:48,320
Speaker 12: But now that Trump is in office, any attack against

4117
03:27:48,400 --> 03:27:51,080
Speaker 12: the federal government can be used by the Trump administration

4118
03:27:51,440 --> 03:27:55,480
Speaker 12: as an example of left wing terrorism attacking a right

4119
03:27:55,520 --> 03:27:59,040
Speaker 12: wing government. Take, for instance, the sniper attack in Texas

4120
03:27:59,080 --> 03:28:04,400
Speaker 12: targeting and ice fisacility and vehicles. Although actually shooting multiple immigrants,

4121
03:28:05,480 --> 03:28:09,199
Speaker 12: this shooter was described by his friends as being largely

4122
03:28:09,240 --> 03:28:12,760
Speaker 12: a political but leaned libertarian. This shooting also had a

4123
03:28:12,840 --> 03:28:17,120
Speaker 12: suicidal aspect in that he did kill himself after the shooting.

4124
03:28:17,959 --> 03:28:22,160
Speaker 12: With Trump in charge of the federal government, nihilistic and

4125
03:28:22,280 --> 03:28:26,640
Speaker 12: self destructive attacks against American society may take a form

4126
03:28:26,720 --> 03:28:31,800
Speaker 12: which can be characterized as left wing violence. Another example

4127
03:28:31,800 --> 03:28:34,600
Speaker 12: of this is the plot against the UFC Freedom two

4128
03:28:34,760 --> 03:28:39,440
Speaker 12: fifty event, where self described Christian patriots who saw themselves

4129
03:28:39,480 --> 03:28:44,920
Speaker 12: as aspiring revolutionaries tried to start the Second American Revolutionary

4130
03:28:44,959 --> 03:28:49,800
Speaker 12: War by targeting high level politicians and public figures at

4131
03:28:49,879 --> 03:28:53,200
Speaker 12: the UFC White House event. These people are not on

4132
03:28:53,240 --> 03:28:56,800
Speaker 12: what I would consider the left wing, but in the

4133
03:28:56,879 --> 03:28:59,800
Speaker 12: conservative coverage of this attack, this was framed as an

4134
03:28:59,840 --> 03:29:04,160
Speaker 12: anti capitalist attack targeting Trump's cabinet. Towards the end of

4135
03:29:04,240 --> 03:29:07,640
Speaker 12: Rubio's speech, he started talking about this like international strategy

4136
03:29:07,640 --> 03:29:10,959
Speaker 12: that they want to develop to handle this emerging threat quote.

4137
03:29:11,160 --> 03:29:13,320
Speaker 12: This is an international conference because we are facing an

4138
03:29:13,360 --> 03:29:18,640
Speaker 12: international transnational threat. These are not distinct and isolated cells.

4139
03:29:18,680 --> 03:29:21,480
Speaker 12: They are interconnected networks. They do not recognize our borders.

4140
03:29:21,760 --> 03:29:25,040
Speaker 12: They do not believe, in fact in the nation state itself.

4141
03:29:25,360 --> 03:29:28,320
Speaker 12: They coordinate, they communicate, they travel, they train, and they

4142
03:29:28,360 --> 03:29:31,640
Speaker 12: act together, sharing the same infrastructure, sharing the same enemies,

4143
03:29:31,800 --> 03:29:34,400
Speaker 12: sharing the same mission. And I'll play one more clip

4144
03:29:34,440 --> 03:29:35,440
Speaker 12: from Rubio here.

4145
03:29:36,879 --> 03:29:40,320
Speaker 27: ANTIFAM militants and their comrades travel from across Europe and

4146
03:29:40,360 --> 03:29:44,039
Speaker 27: to the Americas to participate in each other's attacks, to

4147
03:29:44,120 --> 03:29:49,000
Speaker 27: funnel propaganda and training materials and target information through shared

4148
03:29:49,120 --> 03:29:54,080
Speaker 27: encrypted channels, moving through underground networks of safehouses and finance,

4149
03:29:54,680 --> 03:29:59,280
Speaker 27: and sustain their operations through transnational funds. And they work

4150
03:29:59,280 --> 03:30:03,760
Speaker 27: alongside lost all foreign states that share their mission, like

4151
03:30:03,800 --> 03:30:08,039
Speaker 27: a Rocks Iranian proxy networks, who are increasing increasingly intimately

4152
03:30:08,080 --> 03:30:12,640
Speaker 27: tied to leftist militant groups around the world. The Cuban

4153
03:30:12,680 --> 03:30:16,320
Speaker 27: regimes sprawling intelligence and ideological network help to build the

4154
03:30:16,320 --> 03:30:19,680
Speaker 27: far left in our country and in our hemisphere, and

4155
03:30:19,760 --> 03:30:22,520
Speaker 27: it remains inextricably linked to the far left groups and

4156
03:30:22,560 --> 03:30:28,400
Speaker 27: movements across and beyond the West. Today's far left terrorists

4157
03:30:28,560 --> 03:30:31,560
Speaker 27: can raise money in one country, they can host their

4158
03:30:31,560 --> 03:30:33,320
Speaker 27: communications in a second country.

4159
03:30:33,760 --> 03:30:35,920
Speaker 18: They can receive training in a third country.

4160
03:30:36,240 --> 03:30:39,280
Speaker 27: They can recruit militants in a fourth country and then

4161
03:30:39,320 --> 03:30:42,760
Speaker 27: together strike a target in a fifth country.

4162
03:30:43,080 --> 03:30:45,320
Speaker 1: A thing that we've never seen happen. This is complete

4163
03:30:45,360 --> 03:30:48,680
Speaker 1: section that's never ever happened. This is not once. Where

4164
03:30:48,720 --> 03:30:52,800
Speaker 1: are they training, Marco? This is like a Tom Clancy

4165
03:30:52,920 --> 03:30:55,520
Speaker 1: novel that's he does think they're training in Cuba. Actually

4166
03:30:55,600 --> 03:30:56,760
Speaker 1: I shouldn't ask that.

4167
03:30:56,879 --> 03:30:58,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, the only thing that functions like this is the

4168
03:30:58,879 --> 03:30:59,960
Speaker 4: central intelligence agents.

4169
03:31:00,360 --> 03:31:03,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, but nothing else works like this. That's not entirely true,

4170
03:31:03,440 --> 03:31:05,520
Speaker 1: like the global far right does to a degree work

4171
03:31:05,560 --> 03:31:08,200
Speaker 1: that's true, right, Like, yeah, there's an element now. Now

4172
03:31:08,200 --> 03:31:10,000
Speaker 1: I wouldn't even describe it that way because that's more

4173
03:31:10,040 --> 03:31:12,600
Speaker 1: elaborate than I've ever seen the global far right do, honestly.

4174
03:31:12,720 --> 03:31:15,320
Speaker 1: But yeah, they're versions of that do occur where people

4175
03:31:15,360 --> 03:31:18,119
Speaker 1: are like traveling to one country for armed training or whatever.

4176
03:31:18,280 --> 03:31:18,440
Speaker 2: Yeah.

4177
03:31:18,520 --> 03:31:20,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I guess you could look back at the old

4178
03:31:20,360 --> 03:31:23,680
Speaker 4: like world anti communist networks exactly like League networks, where

4179
03:31:23,680 --> 03:31:24,720
Speaker 4: they would do that, but like.

4180
03:31:24,720 --> 03:31:26,760
Speaker 12: This, I mean, I wonder if they would consider stuff

4181
03:31:26,760 --> 03:31:29,920
Speaker 12: like traveling to like Rojava, right a leftist traveling to Rojava,

4182
03:31:30,000 --> 03:31:33,000
Speaker 12: or traveling to like you know, see like Zapatista's right.

4183
03:31:33,080 --> 03:31:35,320
Speaker 12: If that's kind of what he's thinking of, or if

4184
03:31:35,360 --> 03:31:37,720
Speaker 12: he's even thinking about it in like a real literal way.

4185
03:31:37,680 --> 03:31:40,080
Speaker 1: I can tell you specifically what he's thinking about in this.

4186
03:31:40,160 --> 03:31:42,000
Speaker 1: I mean he's thinking about two things. He's trying to

4187
03:31:42,080 --> 03:31:45,480
Speaker 1: directly draw a comparison for political purposes to the influencers

4188
03:31:45,480 --> 03:31:47,960
Speaker 1: who went out of to Cuba recently. But the thing

4189
03:31:48,000 --> 03:31:50,200
Speaker 1: that he is actually thinking about is the way a

4190
03:31:50,280 --> 03:31:52,560
Speaker 1: chunk of the global far left worked in like the

4191
03:31:52,600 --> 03:31:55,400
Speaker 1: sixties and seventies. Kadafi trained the IRA right Like there

4192
03:31:55,400 --> 03:31:57,119
Speaker 1: were a lot of like web not all of them,

4193
03:31:57,120 --> 03:31:59,400
Speaker 1: but like there was people did travel from left wing

4194
03:31:59,440 --> 03:32:02,240
Speaker 1: groups to other places and then carried out attacks in

4195
03:32:02,320 --> 03:32:04,640
Speaker 1: other countries. That was a thing that occurred during what

4196
03:32:04,800 --> 03:32:07,520
Speaker 1: is often called the Golden Age of terrorism. This is

4197
03:32:07,520 --> 03:32:10,680
Speaker 1: a lot of this is just more Marco not leaving

4198
03:32:10,720 --> 03:32:14,520
Speaker 1: the seventies behind. Like even though again it's fifty years

4199
03:32:14,600 --> 03:32:16,760
Speaker 1: since that kind of shit's been going on almost and

4200
03:32:16,840 --> 03:32:22,520
Speaker 1: Kadafi's dead, like the IRA isn't exactly active anymore either.

4201
03:32:23,280 --> 03:32:27,520
Speaker 12: We'll return to talk more about far left transnational terrorism

4202
03:32:28,000 --> 03:32:29,439
Speaker 12: after this at break.

4203
03:32:42,000 --> 03:32:42,920
Speaker 4: We are back.

4204
03:32:43,040 --> 03:32:47,760
Speaker 12: There's one last part about this antifa far left terrorism

4205
03:32:47,840 --> 03:32:49,960
Speaker 12: summit that happened at the State Department that I want

4206
03:32:49,959 --> 03:32:52,199
Speaker 12: to hone in on, and that is the remarks made

4207
03:32:52,200 --> 03:32:57,039
Speaker 12: by Stephen Miller. So brace yourself for a short clip

4208
03:32:57,080 --> 03:32:57,879
Speaker 12: of Miller here.

4209
03:32:58,879 --> 03:33:03,040
Speaker 28: President Trump issued it directive. In our parlance, it's called

4210
03:33:03,400 --> 03:33:08,920
Speaker 28: a National Security Presidential Memorandum or NSPN NSPM seven to

4211
03:33:09,000 --> 03:33:12,640
Speaker 28: be exact. That directs, for the first time in American history,

4212
03:33:13,480 --> 03:33:16,959
Speaker 28: all of our law enforcement and intelligence agencies to work

4213
03:33:17,040 --> 03:33:25,760
Speaker 28: together to disrupt, identify, defund, debank, arrest, and prosecute these

4214
03:33:25,800 --> 03:33:29,360
Speaker 28: political terrorists that are operating in our country. There's no

4215
03:33:29,800 --> 03:33:32,879
Speaker 28: point at which the left wing terrorist is satisfied with

4216
03:33:32,959 --> 03:33:38,400
Speaker 28: his gains and ceases progressing inevitably left to run its course,

4217
03:33:38,920 --> 03:33:42,119
Speaker 28: it always becomes a gulag. It always becomes the mass

4218
03:33:42,160 --> 03:33:46,959
Speaker 28: imprisonment of political enemies, the stripping of their rights and freedoms,

4219
03:33:48,400 --> 03:33:54,760
Speaker 28: inflicting immense pain, humiliation, suffering. In order to establish complete

4220
03:33:55,200 --> 03:34:01,640
Speaker 28: and total control control through psychological and physical and actual terror.

4221
03:34:02,560 --> 03:34:06,800
Speaker 12: We must disrupt, identify, defund dbank, arrest and prosecute these

4222
03:34:06,840 --> 03:34:10,040
Speaker 12: political terrorists, or else they will turn the country into

4223
03:34:10,120 --> 03:34:13,880
Speaker 12: a goolage and conduct the mass imprisonment of political enemies

4224
03:34:14,200 --> 03:34:16,959
Speaker 12: and establish total psychological control.

4225
03:34:17,440 --> 03:34:19,280
Speaker 4: It's just that we must do the genocide before they

4226
03:34:19,320 --> 03:34:20,800
Speaker 4: do the genocide against us thing.

4227
03:34:21,480 --> 03:34:24,360
Speaker 12: And that is a lot of how Miller and the

4228
03:34:24,360 --> 03:34:26,840
Speaker 12: Ambassador for the Counter Terrorist and Bureau talk about this,

4229
03:34:26,879 --> 03:34:29,279
Speaker 12: So like, we need to stop this before it gets bigger.

4230
03:34:29,320 --> 03:34:31,880
Speaker 12: We know it seems kind of small right now, but

4231
03:34:31,920 --> 03:34:34,520
Speaker 12: by the time that everyone realizes this is a huge threat,

4232
03:34:34,600 --> 03:34:35,400
Speaker 12: then it's already too late.

4233
03:34:35,520 --> 03:34:36,400
Speaker 4: Then we've already lost.

4234
03:34:36,600 --> 03:34:38,520
Speaker 12: We have to end this thing right now as it

4235
03:34:38,600 --> 03:34:40,720
Speaker 12: still is like an infant, like we cannot let this

4236
03:34:40,760 --> 03:34:42,600
Speaker 12: thing grow up. That is very much how he talks

4237
03:34:42,640 --> 03:34:46,320
Speaker 12: about it. And he is really frustrated about the way

4238
03:34:46,360 --> 03:34:48,680
Speaker 12: that attempts by the rep administration to do this have

4239
03:34:48,840 --> 03:34:52,320
Speaker 12: been curtailed or I've not been able to really be

4240
03:34:52,320 --> 03:34:54,200
Speaker 12: followed through on to the extent that he wants. And

4241
03:34:54,520 --> 03:34:57,400
Speaker 12: she has a specific thing that's been happening that he's

4242
03:34:57,440 --> 03:35:00,400
Speaker 12: really upset about. And that's a little term some people

4243
03:35:00,400 --> 03:35:03,359
Speaker 12: in the audience might be familiar with called jury nullification.

4244
03:35:04,800 --> 03:35:11,080
Speaker 28: There's a real threat that those who are not themselves terrorists,

4245
03:35:11,600 --> 03:35:17,800
Speaker 28: but who support left wing violence will create the conditions

4246
03:35:17,800 --> 03:35:22,199
Speaker 28: that allow that violence to go on without any meaningful inhibition.

4247
03:35:22,360 --> 03:35:25,840
Speaker 28: So to be specific, we've seen some of our nation's

4248
03:35:25,840 --> 03:35:28,920
Speaker 28: cities in America, like Washington, d C. In New York City.

4249
03:35:29,240 --> 03:35:31,520
Speaker 28: Something is gain as an American term, but it's known

4250
03:35:31,560 --> 03:35:34,400
Speaker 28: as jury nullification. This is when a person is obviously

4251
03:35:34,400 --> 03:35:37,920
Speaker 28: guilty of a crime, but the jury, because they're ideologically

4252
03:35:37,959 --> 03:35:42,840
Speaker 28: sympathetical sympathetic to the perpetrator, will not sentence them to

4253
03:35:42,879 --> 03:35:45,640
Speaker 28: the crime which have obviously committed. We've seen in the

4254
03:35:45,680 --> 03:35:49,080
Speaker 28: United States again and again individuals who are part of

4255
03:35:49,160 --> 03:35:52,840
Speaker 28: lefting organizations who've committed the saults against ice officers or

4256
03:35:52,879 --> 03:35:55,959
Speaker 28: federal law enforcement, who have been brought to court where

4257
03:35:56,040 --> 03:35:59,000
Speaker 28: clear evidence has been presented against them, that the jury

4258
03:35:59,360 --> 03:36:03,920
Speaker 28: has refused to convict for purely political reasons. When you've

4259
03:36:03,920 --> 03:36:07,920
Speaker 28: reached that point, it demonstrates how deeply the cancer has

4260
03:36:07,959 --> 03:36:09,359
Speaker 28: begun to infest your society.

4261
03:36:09,400 --> 03:36:12,680
Speaker 12: According to a new report in Just Security, quote, nearly

4262
03:36:12,720 --> 03:36:15,720
Speaker 12: half the cases nationwide brought against protesters and immigrants for

4263
03:36:15,760 --> 03:36:19,080
Speaker 12: assault against a law enforcement officer or dismissed by judges,

4264
03:36:19,120 --> 03:36:22,720
Speaker 12: with drawn by prosecutors, or resulted in jury acquittals, and

4265
03:36:22,760 --> 03:36:26,720
Speaker 12: at least eighteen publicly reported instances grand juries have refused

4266
03:36:26,760 --> 03:36:30,480
Speaker 12: to indict, at least sixteen grand jury subpoenas have been

4267
03:36:30,480 --> 03:36:33,520
Speaker 12: blocked or withdrawn, and judges have dismissed or prosecutors have

4268
03:36:33,560 --> 03:36:36,879
Speaker 12: dropped at least seventy nine cases relating to ice protests

4269
03:36:37,160 --> 03:36:40,480
Speaker 12: or federal law enforcement surgis across DC, Chicago, Minnesota, and

4270
03:36:40,560 --> 03:36:43,280
Speaker 12: Los Angeles. In a period of two months, the US

4271
03:36:43,280 --> 03:36:45,800
Speaker 12: Attorney's Office in DC dropped more cases than it had

4272
03:36:45,840 --> 03:36:49,600
Speaker 12: in the previous ten years combined, unquote. And that also

4273
03:36:49,640 --> 03:36:52,720
Speaker 12: shows the scale in which they're bringing these cases against protesters.

4274
03:36:53,440 --> 03:36:56,160
Speaker 12: This is something that Miller is really upset about. This

4275
03:36:56,200 --> 03:36:59,320
Speaker 12: is something that is severely prohibiting the administration's ability to

4276
03:36:59,840 --> 03:37:02,920
Speaker 12: go after quote unquote left wing terrorism, what they view

4277
03:37:02,920 --> 03:37:05,800
Speaker 12: as left wing terrorism, and he's really frustrated about this.

4278
03:37:05,959 --> 03:37:07,680
Speaker 12: Here's one last quote from him.

4279
03:37:08,080 --> 03:37:08,520
Speaker 4: Quote.

4280
03:37:08,680 --> 03:37:10,920
Speaker 12: One of the hallmarks of left wing violence and terrorism

4281
03:37:10,959 --> 03:37:15,160
Speaker 12: is it's completely protectual and disingenuous appeal to civil liberties

4282
03:37:15,160 --> 03:37:18,000
Speaker 12: in an effort to shield its own violence. This is

4283
03:37:18,040 --> 03:37:20,200
Speaker 12: the tactic that the left always uses to try to

4284
03:37:20,240 --> 03:37:24,160
Speaker 12: protect itself from facing criminal punishment. It is essential that

4285
03:37:24,160 --> 03:37:26,360
Speaker 12: we are wise enough and strong enough to understand that

4286
03:37:26,400 --> 03:37:30,119
Speaker 12: these appeals must fall on deaf ears. We must say

4287
03:37:30,120 --> 03:37:32,800
Speaker 12: the course and be completely unflinching in the pursuit of

4288
03:37:32,959 --> 03:37:37,960
Speaker 12: justice against these enemies of civilization. Unquote, and Miller and

4289
03:37:38,040 --> 03:37:42,000
Speaker 12: Rubio went on pretty lengthy rants about how the threat

4290
03:37:42,000 --> 03:37:45,520
Speaker 12: of left wing violence really is this civilizational threat against

4291
03:37:45,520 --> 03:37:48,000
Speaker 12: what is beautiful and what is good and what is natural.

4292
03:37:48,040 --> 03:37:51,720
Speaker 12: It's a quote from Miller against this like ugly hatred

4293
03:37:52,040 --> 03:37:54,840
Speaker 12: that fuels the left, this sort of like you know,

4294
03:37:54,879 --> 03:37:57,600
Speaker 12: like resentment for like failing at life, and now they

4295
03:37:57,600 --> 03:37:59,720
Speaker 12: want to attack those of us who like succeed, those

4296
03:37:59,760 --> 03:38:03,200
Speaker 12: of us who like build very fascistic like stuff. At

4297
03:38:03,200 --> 03:38:04,119
Speaker 12: the end of both their.

4298
03:38:04,040 --> 03:38:07,440
Speaker 1: Speeches, very and also very Bin Shapiro stuff. To be honest,

4299
03:38:07,480 --> 03:38:09,720
Speaker 1: the whole builders and takers thing. I mean, he didn't

4300
03:38:09,720 --> 03:38:12,840
Speaker 1: start that, but it is interesting to see there's so

4301
03:38:12,920 --> 03:38:15,240
Speaker 1: many old throwbacks to this because you can tell these

4302
03:38:15,440 --> 03:38:17,680
Speaker 1: these are guys who get started in writing politics before

4303
03:38:17,720 --> 03:38:20,840
Speaker 1: the current era, because they keep hearkening back to stuff

4304
03:38:20,879 --> 03:38:23,520
Speaker 1: that's just like not as big a part of like

4305
03:38:23,560 --> 03:38:26,879
Speaker 1: the modern vernacular, which is always interesting to me, like

4306
03:38:26,920 --> 03:38:28,760
Speaker 1: how stuck a lot of these guys are in the past.

4307
03:38:30,200 --> 03:38:34,920
Speaker 12: At a post conference press conference for Foreign Press, the

4308
03:38:35,000 --> 03:38:38,480
Speaker 12: Coordinator and ambassad at Large for the Bureau kinter Terrorism

4309
03:38:38,920 --> 03:38:41,800
Speaker 12: reiterated that the us kinter Terrism strategy is still focusing

4310
03:38:41,840 --> 03:38:44,920
Speaker 12: on three main types of threat groups Narco terrorists, Islamic

4311
03:38:44,920 --> 03:38:48,000
Speaker 12: corgiatis terrorists, and far left terrorists, and that they need

4312
03:38:48,040 --> 03:38:51,840
Speaker 12: to quote identify terror actors and plots before they happen.

4313
03:38:53,080 --> 03:38:56,039
Speaker 12: He calls far left terrorism a resurgent threat with a

4314
03:38:56,040 --> 03:38:59,000
Speaker 12: clear upward trend and that they are quote committed to

4315
03:38:59,080 --> 03:39:02,680
Speaker 12: addressing it before it metastasizes that they want to halt

4316
03:39:02,800 --> 03:39:06,080
Speaker 12: this scourge before it grows into something larger, more unified,

4317
03:39:06,120 --> 03:39:10,520
Speaker 12: and more deadly. The Ambassador outlined three concrete outcomes from

4318
03:39:10,640 --> 03:39:14,800
Speaker 12: this conference. The first was on designations and accountability, and

4319
03:39:15,120 --> 03:39:19,840
Speaker 12: like Rubio, he promised that additional foreign terrorist organizations and

4320
03:39:19,879 --> 03:39:23,240
Speaker 12: specially designated global terrorist designations for quote unquote far left

4321
03:39:23,280 --> 03:39:26,160
Speaker 12: groups are under active review and are going to be

4322
03:39:26,200 --> 03:39:30,240
Speaker 12: incoming soon, following the four designations of europe based groups

4323
03:39:30,280 --> 03:39:32,600
Speaker 12: last year. So there's going to be more left wing

4324
03:39:32,720 --> 03:39:36,720
Speaker 12: or Antifa related groups designated as foreign terrorist organizations. UH

4325
03:39:38,040 --> 03:39:43,600
Speaker 12: Secretary Besent talked about how legitimate nonprofit and charitable structures

4326
03:39:43,720 --> 03:39:46,480
Speaker 12: are being quote exploited as a mechanism to conceal the

4327
03:39:46,520 --> 03:39:51,080
Speaker 12: movement of illicit funds to support political terrorism, and the

4328
03:39:51,120 --> 03:39:55,240
Speaker 12: ambassador talked about how international partners are discussing prospects quote

4329
03:39:55,280 --> 03:39:57,879
Speaker 12: allowing their own legal frameworks to ensure that these networks

4330
03:39:57,879 --> 03:40:01,080
Speaker 12: cannot simply relocate across borders. As a part of these

4331
03:40:01,280 --> 03:40:04,600
Speaker 12: terrorist designations, the Treasury's Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence

4332
03:40:04,720 --> 03:40:07,760
Speaker 12: will take steps to dismantle the funding which sustains these groups,

4333
03:40:08,400 --> 03:40:11,080
Speaker 12: and the state departments also offering payments it up to

4334
03:40:11,120 --> 03:40:15,440
Speaker 12: ten million dollars for information disrupting far left terrorist financing.

4335
03:40:16,040 --> 03:40:18,760
Speaker 12: The second outcome of the conference was on operational coordination,

4336
03:40:19,040 --> 03:40:22,280
Speaker 12: like deepening information sharing between partner agencies and coordinating on

4337
03:40:22,320 --> 03:40:26,039
Speaker 12: travel restrictions and strengthening the protection of critical infrastructure like

4338
03:40:26,160 --> 03:40:29,879
Speaker 12: transportation and energy systems. It was also announced that Germany

4339
03:40:29,959 --> 03:40:34,160
Speaker 12: would host the next quote unquote counter Terrorism Workshop. The

4340
03:40:34,240 --> 03:40:39,240
Speaker 12: last concrete outcome of this event was new visa restrictions

4341
03:40:39,320 --> 03:40:43,440
Speaker 12: quote targeting members of far left terrorists and aligned groups.

4342
03:40:44,640 --> 03:40:48,279
Speaker 12: For more on that, Let's throw to our colleague James

4343
03:40:48,280 --> 03:40:50,160
Speaker 12: Stout Hi one.

4344
03:40:50,200 --> 03:40:53,560
Speaker 3: It's James coming at you with the second attempt to

4345
03:40:53,560 --> 03:40:56,560
Speaker 3: record this. Find myself traveling every Wednesday at the moment,

4346
03:40:56,959 --> 03:40:59,800
Speaker 3: so apologies for missing out on According to everyone else,

4347
03:41:00,000 --> 03:41:02,560
Speaker 3: will be back next week a promise, and we will

4348
03:41:02,640 --> 03:41:06,080
Speaker 3: return to our usual shared conversation. But I did want

4349
03:41:06,080 --> 03:41:07,640
Speaker 3: to check in with everyone this week because I want

4350
03:41:07,680 --> 03:41:10,680
Speaker 3: to talk about a couple of things. Last week, for

4351
03:41:10,720 --> 03:41:12,840
Speaker 3: the first time in its history, the United States government

4352
03:41:12,840 --> 03:41:15,560
Speaker 3: attempted to remove someone through the use of the Alien

4353
03:41:15,760 --> 03:41:19,400
Speaker 3: Terrorist Removal Court. This is something that was first published

4354
03:41:19,440 --> 03:41:21,320
Speaker 3: by Shamus Hues at Court Works, and I want to

4355
03:41:21,320 --> 03:41:24,040
Speaker 3: give credit Bok credits you Shame of Spenser on godly

4356
03:41:24,040 --> 03:41:27,199
Speaker 3: amount of time looking at PACER and other court documents

4357
03:41:27,280 --> 03:41:28,320
Speaker 3: have found this, so.

4358
03:41:28,320 --> 03:41:29,240
Speaker 2: Background Ond's court right.

4359
03:41:29,240 --> 03:41:31,560
Speaker 3: It's established in nineteen ninety six by the Anti Terrorism

4360
03:41:31,640 --> 03:41:35,359
Speaker 3: and Effective Death Penalty Act. That law allows the Attorney

4361
03:41:35,400 --> 03:41:37,440
Speaker 3: General to designate some of the terrorists and use this

4362
03:41:37,560 --> 03:41:39,960
Speaker 3: process if Title two removal will be a threat to

4363
03:41:40,040 --> 03:41:44,920
Speaker 3: national security. Now the hearings in the ATRC, I will

4364
03:41:44,959 --> 03:41:48,760
Speaker 3: say they fly extremely close to the sun with regards

4365
03:41:48,760 --> 03:41:52,440
Speaker 3: to constitutional rights and the concept of a fair trial.

4366
03:41:53,000 --> 03:41:54,920
Speaker 2: There are lots of.

4367
03:41:55,440 --> 03:41:59,080
Speaker 3: Provisions in this law for classified evidence, for restrictions on

4368
03:41:59,120 --> 03:42:01,519
Speaker 3: the things that the deffect and can obtained by discovery.

4369
03:42:01,879 --> 03:42:04,840
Speaker 3: The law also says, quote, an alien subject to removal

4370
03:42:04,920 --> 03:42:07,680
Speaker 3: under this Title shall not be entitled to suppress evidence

4371
03:42:07,680 --> 03:42:11,560
Speaker 3: that the alien alleges was unlawfully obtained. That's great stuff.

4372
03:42:11,720 --> 03:42:14,120
Speaker 3: It's just worth noting nineteen ninety six is before the

4373
03:42:14,120 --> 03:42:18,640
Speaker 3: start of the Global War on Terror, and it therefore

4374
03:42:18,680 --> 03:42:22,440
Speaker 3: pre dates the existence of the prison camp at Guantanamo Bay.

4375
03:42:22,480 --> 03:42:24,600
Speaker 3: At the United States had a base at Guantanamo Bay,

4376
03:42:24,680 --> 03:42:29,320
Speaker 3: but the large scale extra judicial torturing of people, what

4377
03:42:29,360 --> 03:42:32,480
Speaker 3: they called enhanced interrogation at Guantanamobe, had not begun in

4378
03:42:32,520 --> 03:42:33,320
Speaker 3: nineteen ninety six.

4379
03:42:33,400 --> 03:42:33,520
Speaker 25: Right.

4380
03:42:33,560 --> 03:42:36,520
Speaker 3: I'm not saying that they were not doing extra judicial

4381
03:42:36,560 --> 03:42:38,720
Speaker 3: things in nineteen ninety six. I'm just saying that the

4382
03:42:39,280 --> 03:42:41,240
Speaker 3: GITMO as we understand it today, for those of us

4383
03:42:41,280 --> 03:42:43,680
Speaker 3: who have grown up with it as a political reality

4384
03:42:43,720 --> 03:42:45,760
Speaker 3: for most a adult lives, didn't exist in that sense.

4385
03:42:45,800 --> 03:42:46,080
Speaker 25: Then.

4386
03:42:46,600 --> 03:42:48,480
Speaker 2: I'm not saying that they were not people detained there.

4387
03:42:48,560 --> 03:42:49,280
Speaker 2: They probably were.

4388
03:42:49,520 --> 03:42:51,560
Speaker 3: I'm not saying they did not do extra judicial things

4389
03:42:51,560 --> 03:42:53,440
Speaker 3: in pursuit of quote, unquite aity terrorism.

4390
03:42:53,560 --> 03:42:54,280
Speaker 2: I believe they did.

4391
03:42:54,800 --> 03:42:58,879
Speaker 3: Boseberg mentioned this court Judge Boseburg remember him from the

4392
03:42:58,959 --> 03:43:03,440
Speaker 3: El Salwardore Sicott cases, when he told the government that

4393
03:43:03,480 --> 03:43:06,280
Speaker 3: there was a procedure for someone accused of terrorism because

4394
03:43:06,320 --> 03:43:08,840
Speaker 3: the government basically said, oh, well, these people are terrorists.

4395
03:43:08,920 --> 03:43:09,280
Speaker 2: Look at that.

4396
03:43:09,320 --> 03:43:11,080
Speaker 3: We put them on a plane, send them to a

4397
03:43:11,120 --> 03:43:13,080
Speaker 3: death camp in ensemble or essentially right a prison that

4398
03:43:13,160 --> 03:43:15,120
Speaker 3: very few people leave. Eventually, most of these people did

4399
03:43:15,240 --> 03:43:17,800
Speaker 3: leave in this case, but it was very unusual for

4400
03:43:17,800 --> 03:43:21,520
Speaker 3: someone to leave that camp. And what he said was

4401
03:43:21,959 --> 03:43:24,680
Speaker 3: quote so if there's a national security concern with having

4402
03:43:24,760 --> 03:43:28,560
Speaker 3: these hearings, whether via Habeis or otherwise, you can always

4403
03:43:28,600 --> 03:43:30,680
Speaker 3: go to the ATRC, which will be a first but

4404
03:43:30,680 --> 03:43:31,440
Speaker 3: that's what it's there for.

4405
03:43:31,560 --> 03:43:31,760
Speaker 21: Right.

4406
03:43:32,120 --> 03:43:34,400
Speaker 3: So at the time he's pointing to it, saying, if

4407
03:43:34,400 --> 03:43:37,560
Speaker 3: you can't put the evidence for these people's the need

4408
03:43:37,560 --> 03:43:38,960
Speaker 3: to remove these people out in public.

4409
03:43:39,040 --> 03:43:41,080
Speaker 2: That's why we have the ATRC. When't use that.

4410
03:43:41,280 --> 03:43:44,720
Speaker 3: Trump administration said we can use that, that does.

4411
03:43:44,560 --> 03:43:46,800
Speaker 2: Not mean we have to use that, And that was

4412
03:43:46,840 --> 03:43:47,720
Speaker 2: their argument, right.

4413
03:43:48,280 --> 03:43:52,520
Speaker 3: The court is of not just people engage in terrorism.

4414
03:43:52,520 --> 03:43:55,760
Speaker 3: It's also their families. It's also people accused of things

4415
03:43:55,840 --> 03:43:59,000
Speaker 3: like soliciting others to engage in actus terrorism or raising funds.

4416
03:43:59,440 --> 03:44:02,120
Speaker 3: It also is that once a person they've submitted an

4417
03:44:02,120 --> 03:44:04,600
Speaker 3: application for removal through this court, they can detain a person.

4418
03:44:05,160 --> 03:44:07,720
Speaker 3: The court has this crazy website. It looks like it

4419
03:44:07,760 --> 03:44:11,320
Speaker 3: was very hastily created. It's not a usual website for

4420
03:44:11,400 --> 03:44:13,879
Speaker 3: a court at all. Usually court websites that they were

4421
03:44:13,920 --> 03:44:16,400
Speaker 3: made in the late nineteen nineties. They are very difficult

4422
03:44:16,440 --> 03:44:18,920
Speaker 3: to navigate and they have a huge amount of data

4423
03:44:19,240 --> 03:44:21,760
Speaker 3: that it's hard to find. That's why a lot of

4424
03:44:21,800 --> 03:44:24,600
Speaker 3: us like to use court Listener or some other website

4425
03:44:24,840 --> 03:44:28,040
Speaker 3: rather than going directly to the court pages, which can

4426
03:44:28,040 --> 03:44:30,720
Speaker 3: be very hard to navigate. This page lists of judges,

4427
03:44:30,720 --> 03:44:32,959
Speaker 3: where each of the judges comes from a different US circuit,

4428
03:44:33,200 --> 03:44:36,080
Speaker 3: and it has the two documents that the court has

4429
03:44:36,200 --> 03:44:39,720
Speaker 3: made available so far. One is pretty much all blanked out.

4430
03:44:39,959 --> 03:44:41,920
Speaker 3: The other one is a court order in which Court

4431
03:44:42,000 --> 03:44:44,879
Speaker 3: Chief Judge asserts, quote, the government could benefit from an

4432
03:44:44,879 --> 03:44:48,000
Speaker 3: opportunity for more thoughtful consideration, So they've made an application

4433
03:44:48,040 --> 03:44:50,160
Speaker 3: to remove someone by this court. And that is a

4434
03:44:50,200 --> 03:44:54,800
Speaker 3: response of the court at this time right. Obviously, this

4435
03:44:54,920 --> 03:44:59,600
Speaker 3: is very concerning right. Immigration court, to begin with, I

4436
03:44:59,640 --> 03:45:03,640
Speaker 3: think is getting closer and closer to being something that

4437
03:45:03,720 --> 03:45:06,959
Speaker 3: is sort of openly flouting the Constitution and people's rights.

4438
03:45:07,000 --> 03:45:09,520
Speaker 3: There immigration judges are not judges in the sense that

4439
03:45:09,560 --> 03:45:12,640
Speaker 3: you understand judges to be, even though some of them

4440
03:45:12,680 --> 03:45:15,280
Speaker 3: have worked hard to give people due process and many

4441
03:45:15,320 --> 03:45:18,800
Speaker 3: of them are now being removed wanted demise because of them.

4442
03:45:19,200 --> 03:45:21,720
Speaker 3: But if we look at this in addition to the

4443
03:45:21,840 --> 03:45:25,200
Speaker 3: United States adding groups in Mexico and Europe to the

4444
03:45:25,320 --> 03:45:28,760
Speaker 3: FTO list Foreign Terrorist Organizations for those who aren't familiar,

4445
03:45:28,959 --> 03:45:31,440
Speaker 3: it's especially concerning right. And it's especially concerning when we

4446
03:45:31,520 --> 03:45:36,520
Speaker 3: look another announcement this week which explicitly cited NSPM seven,

4447
03:45:36,520 --> 03:45:40,320
Speaker 3: which we've spoken about lengths on this show, limiting visas

4448
03:45:40,320 --> 03:45:44,119
Speaker 3: for people it calls anti fascist and far left terrorist groups.

4449
03:45:44,400 --> 03:45:47,200
Speaker 3: The announcement began going to quote from extensively here, right,

4450
03:45:47,400 --> 03:45:50,840
Speaker 3: far left terrorists and aligned groups do sophisticated organized networks

4451
03:45:50,840 --> 03:45:54,160
Speaker 3: to perpetrate violence as a political tool, seeking to implement

4452
03:45:54,200 --> 03:45:58,480
Speaker 3: an extreme political vision through intimidation and coordinated campaigns of terror.

4453
03:45:59,000 --> 03:46:01,760
Speaker 3: It is a strategy that explicitly aims to undermine the

4454
03:46:01,800 --> 03:46:06,400
Speaker 3: political foundations of free and self governing societies, utilizing bombings, assassinations,

4455
03:46:06,440 --> 03:46:10,280
Speaker 3: and other forms of terrorism to silence speech, limit political opposition,

4456
03:46:10,720 --> 03:46:14,920
Speaker 3: change policy outcomes, and sabotage political processes. This announcement also

4457
03:46:14,920 --> 03:46:17,360
Speaker 3: said that it's quote targets members of far left terrorists

4458
03:46:17,360 --> 03:46:20,160
Speaker 3: and other aligned groups who have supported or incited acts

4459
03:46:20,160 --> 03:46:24,640
Speaker 3: of terrorism, supported violent criminal activity, participated in economic sabotage,

4460
03:46:24,720 --> 03:46:27,879
Speaker 3: financial recruited or provide logistical support for violent or criminal actions,

4461
03:46:27,920 --> 03:46:31,000
Speaker 3: cremated by far left terrorists and other aligning groups, and

4462
03:46:31,280 --> 03:46:34,160
Speaker 3: or facilitated the convergence of far left terrorists and other

4463
03:46:34,200 --> 03:46:37,560
Speaker 3: aligned networks for the purposes of violent action. Some of

4464
03:46:37,560 --> 03:46:41,600
Speaker 3: these are pretty broad right economic sabotage normally altso Ludicris

4465
03:46:41,640 --> 03:46:43,800
Speaker 3: suggests that like that could include bds. But I think

4466
03:46:43,800 --> 03:46:46,800
Speaker 3: given where we are, it's not crazy to think that, right,

4467
03:46:46,920 --> 03:46:49,760
Speaker 3: some of these facilitating the conversions. Right, is that like

4468
03:46:49,879 --> 03:46:55,480
Speaker 3: holding a big summit, is like the logistical support for

4469
03:46:55,560 --> 03:46:59,280
Speaker 3: violent criminal actions? Does that mean bail funds all of

4470
03:46:59,320 --> 03:47:01,920
Speaker 3: these things ash bail? I guess it's less of a

4471
03:47:01,959 --> 03:47:03,840
Speaker 3: thing outside the US. Does that mean people who have

4472
03:47:03,879 --> 03:47:06,600
Speaker 3: done jail support, right? That kind of thing. This is

4473
03:47:06,959 --> 03:47:11,440
Speaker 3: super concerning. The State Department explicitly cites Section two twelve,

4474
03:47:11,520 --> 03:47:14,680
Speaker 3: Subsection A, Part three, Subsection C of the Immigration and

4475
03:47:14,760 --> 03:47:18,520
Speaker 3: Nationality Act, which deals with the inadmissibility of aliens. This

4476
03:47:18,640 --> 03:47:21,920
Speaker 3: section begins quote, an alien whose entry or proposed activities

4477
03:47:21,959 --> 03:47:24,840
Speaker 3: in the United States Secretary of State has reasonable ground

4478
03:47:24,920 --> 03:47:29,240
Speaker 3: to believe have potentially serious adverse foreign policy consequences for

4479
03:47:29,320 --> 03:47:31,080
Speaker 3: the United States is inadmissible.

4480
03:47:31,520 --> 03:47:34,040
Speaker 1: So that's a very very broad category.

4481
03:47:34,120 --> 03:47:34,280
Speaker 4: Right.

4482
03:47:34,360 --> 03:47:39,720
Speaker 3: Notably, it is not sub section B, which deals specifically

4483
03:47:39,760 --> 03:47:42,520
Speaker 3: with terrorism or which terrorists are admissible. This is a

4484
03:47:42,520 --> 03:47:45,119
Speaker 3: different one which deals with this very broad power given

4485
03:47:45,200 --> 03:47:48,160
Speaker 3: to the Secretary of State to decide whose admission would

4486
03:47:48,160 --> 03:47:50,920
Speaker 3: be bad for the United States foreign policy consequences they've

4487
03:47:51,000 --> 03:47:53,400
Speaker 3: used just before. Right, this is a favorite of this administration.

4488
03:47:53,480 --> 03:47:56,000
Speaker 3: But again, right, this is an example of a law

4489
03:47:56,040 --> 03:47:59,520
Speaker 3: which gives massive leeway to in this case part of

4490
03:47:59,520 --> 03:48:04,080
Speaker 3: the executive branch, Secretary of State, and it is therefore

4491
03:48:04,920 --> 03:48:08,000
Speaker 3: he's using that leeway right to do this. I think

4492
03:48:08,480 --> 03:48:12,280
Speaker 3: that we should be especially concerned when we combine this

4493
03:48:13,080 --> 03:48:15,840
Speaker 3: with some of the other things that we're seeing. Right,

4494
03:48:15,959 --> 03:48:19,080
Speaker 3: we are seeing social media surveys of applicants right, people

4495
03:48:19,120 --> 03:48:21,320
Speaker 3: have to submit their whole social media before they apply.

4496
03:48:22,040 --> 03:48:24,080
Speaker 3: We are seeing phone searches at the border more and

4497
03:48:24,120 --> 03:48:27,080
Speaker 3: more frequently, right, famously the JD Vance meme, but it's

4498
03:48:27,120 --> 03:48:29,840
Speaker 3: not uncommon to see these phone searches at the border now.

4499
03:48:30,440 --> 03:48:34,480
Speaker 3: We have also seen this week the elimination of duration

4500
03:48:34,560 --> 03:48:37,520
Speaker 3: of status for a number of visas, F ones being

4501
03:48:37,520 --> 03:48:40,000
Speaker 3: probably the most numerous, F one being a student visa right.

4502
03:48:40,040 --> 03:48:42,960
Speaker 3: Also some foreign journalists visas. Other visa types as well

4503
03:48:43,000 --> 03:48:44,720
Speaker 3: included there, but I want to focus on the F

4504
03:48:44,760 --> 03:48:46,400
Speaker 3: one because I think that will be the one that

4505
03:48:46,440 --> 03:48:50,240
Speaker 3: impacts the most people. So generally, with a F one visa,

4506
03:48:50,280 --> 03:48:53,120
Speaker 3: once you maintained status are once you are still in school,

4507
03:48:54,280 --> 03:48:57,600
Speaker 3: you could keep your student visa right now, These include

4508
03:48:57,640 --> 03:48:59,920
Speaker 3: like a time limit on the duration of the visa.

4509
03:49:00,400 --> 03:49:02,879
Speaker 3: For some people, this will be a serious issue if

4510
03:49:02,879 --> 03:49:05,960
Speaker 3: you are entering, For example, to speaking from experience here,

4511
03:49:06,040 --> 03:49:08,520
Speaker 3: if you are entering a program in the United States

4512
03:49:08,560 --> 03:49:13,080
Speaker 3: in the humanities, and you are entering with a bachelor's

4513
03:49:13,080 --> 03:49:15,440
Speaker 3: degree right, not a master's degree.

4514
03:49:15,440 --> 03:49:16,800
Speaker 2: You will then have to.

4515
03:49:18,320 --> 03:49:21,520
Speaker 3: Advance to candidacy right, complete the requirements for your master's degree,

4516
03:49:21,560 --> 03:49:23,680
Speaker 3: and demonstrate competency in two languages.

4517
03:49:24,080 --> 03:49:26,400
Speaker 2: Let's assume you are not someone who is multilingual. That

4518
03:49:26,400 --> 03:49:27,120
Speaker 2: could take a while.

4519
03:49:27,240 --> 03:49:29,720
Speaker 3: Right Like, depending on how strict the testing is at

4520
03:49:29,760 --> 03:49:32,240
Speaker 3: the particular university you go to, then you will have

4521
03:49:32,280 --> 03:49:33,920
Speaker 3: to research, then you will have to write, then you

4522
03:49:33,960 --> 03:49:37,080
Speaker 3: will have to do a dissertation. These time limits on

4523
03:49:37,120 --> 03:49:39,560
Speaker 3: the F one and visa are less than the nominal

4524
03:49:39,640 --> 03:49:43,320
Speaker 3: time to degree at some institutions, and that means that

4525
03:49:43,360 --> 03:49:46,840
Speaker 3: it's going to be very hard for graduate students, especially

4526
03:49:46,880 --> 03:49:50,320
Speaker 3: to come to the United States to do those degrees.

4527
03:49:50,920 --> 03:49:55,920
Speaker 3: That combined with this denial of visa's thing is going

4528
03:49:55,920 --> 03:49:58,160
Speaker 3: to have an impact on the way campuses look in

4529
03:49:58,240 --> 03:49:59,960
Speaker 3: the United States, and it's going to have a broader impact.

4530
03:50:00,040 --> 03:50:02,040
Speaker 2: And that, of course it is. But this is a

4531
03:50:02,080 --> 03:50:04,160
Speaker 2: thing that I have direct experience with. Right.

4532
03:50:04,720 --> 03:50:09,800
Speaker 3: F one student visas are numerous. I've taught dozens, if

4533
03:50:09,840 --> 03:50:12,120
Speaker 3: not hundreds of F one students. I came on a

4534
03:50:12,120 --> 03:50:15,040
Speaker 3: student visa when I did my PhD. And like, one

4535
03:50:15,080 --> 03:50:16,960
Speaker 3: of the reasons that people come here, and this is

4536
03:50:18,240 --> 03:50:20,800
Speaker 3: something that I've heard from so many people, is that, like,

4537
03:50:20,840 --> 03:50:23,080
Speaker 3: this country has a Bill of rights, and the very

4538
03:50:23,280 --> 03:50:26,000
Speaker 3: first amendment to the Constitution guaranteed freedom of speech, and

4539
03:50:26,000 --> 03:50:29,160
Speaker 3: that isn't the case everywhere. That is a thing that

4540
03:50:29,440 --> 03:50:34,160
Speaker 3: is good, but it is more and more and more

4541
03:50:34,320 --> 03:50:36,840
Speaker 3: under attack, especially for foreign students.

4542
03:50:36,960 --> 03:50:37,040
Speaker 25: Right.

4543
03:50:37,080 --> 03:50:39,040
Speaker 3: We've seen this right from the very beginning of a

4544
03:50:39,080 --> 03:50:42,000
Speaker 3: Trump administration, and I believe that this will be part

4545
03:50:42,040 --> 03:50:44,040
Speaker 3: of that same attack. Right, when we look at all

4546
03:50:44,080 --> 03:50:47,600
Speaker 3: these things together, these are the clearest signposts we have

4547
03:50:47,720 --> 03:50:50,360
Speaker 3: seen yet to the new McCarthyism.

4548
03:50:50,520 --> 03:50:50,680
Speaker 2: Right.

4549
03:50:51,360 --> 03:50:53,440
Speaker 3: We can talk about what Rubio said about Cuba, we

4550
03:50:53,480 --> 03:50:55,760
Speaker 3: can talk about this Antifa summit, which I will talk

4551
03:50:55,760 --> 03:50:58,880
Speaker 3: about soon in more depth, but it is not hard

4552
03:50:59,240 --> 03:51:02,880
Speaker 3: to draw a line, for instance, the prosecution and the

4553
03:51:02,920 --> 03:51:06,760
Speaker 3: persecution outside the legal system of Lincoln Brigadiers, right, people

4554
03:51:06,760 --> 03:51:09,760
Speaker 3: who volunteered to fight fascism in Spain, to what is

4555
03:51:09,800 --> 03:51:14,320
Speaker 3: happening today. And it is sad but not shocking to

4556
03:51:14,360 --> 03:51:17,960
Speaker 3: see yet another shameful aspect of this country's history resurfacing

4557
03:51:18,320 --> 03:51:21,840
Speaker 3: and becoming policy again. So I guess I'll just finish

4558
03:51:21,880 --> 03:51:24,120
Speaker 3: up by saying, if this has impacted you, if you

4559
03:51:24,120 --> 03:51:26,440
Speaker 3: are someone who's recently had a visa refused, if you

4560
03:51:26,480 --> 03:51:28,040
Speaker 3: are somebody who was trying to get in an if

4561
03:51:28,080 --> 03:51:30,840
Speaker 3: one visa and it's now finding shit. I don't think

4562
03:51:30,840 --> 03:51:32,680
Speaker 3: I can do my degree in that much time.

4563
03:51:33,080 --> 03:51:35,840
Speaker 2: What do I do here? I always want to.

4564
03:51:35,920 --> 03:51:39,600
Speaker 3: Tell stories about people, not just about government announcements. So

4565
03:51:39,640 --> 03:51:42,120
Speaker 3: you can hit us up cool Zone tips at proton

4566
03:51:42,200 --> 03:51:44,920
Speaker 3: dot me if you'd like to talk about that. Thanks,

4567
03:51:44,960 --> 03:51:47,680
Speaker 3: and I'll be back with everybody next week.

4568
03:51:48,920 --> 03:51:53,080
Speaker 12: We will discuss tariffs and even more far left terrorism

4569
03:51:53,560 --> 03:51:54,720
Speaker 12: after this ad break.

4570
03:52:07,960 --> 03:52:11,280
Speaker 1: We're back. So earlier this week, the US State Department

4571
03:52:11,360 --> 03:52:13,880
Speaker 1: put out a one hundred page report this would be

4572
03:52:14,000 --> 03:52:19,000
Speaker 1: on Monday, about Cuba's history of trying to overthrow or

4573
03:52:19,040 --> 03:52:23,920
Speaker 1: manipulate US politics via left wing activists and quote unquote

4574
03:52:23,960 --> 03:52:26,520
Speaker 1: left wing militants going back to the sixties. When they

4575
03:52:26,520 --> 03:52:28,360
Speaker 1: say going back to the sixties, basically what I mean

4576
03:52:28,440 --> 03:52:31,000
Speaker 1: is pretty much exclusively the sixties and seventies. Is almost

4577
03:52:31,000 --> 03:52:33,440
Speaker 1: everything in this document that relates to the US directly

4578
03:52:33,560 --> 03:52:37,360
Speaker 1: in any way. The document, which is basically this is

4579
03:52:37,800 --> 03:52:39,360
Speaker 1: just to give you a little bit of background. This

4580
03:52:39,400 --> 03:52:42,680
Speaker 1: is all Rubio, right, not just what Gerre has been

4581
03:52:42,680 --> 03:52:45,640
Speaker 1: talking about, but particularly trying to drum up fear and

4582
03:52:45,680 --> 03:52:49,640
Speaker 1: panic around Cuba and justify an invasion or regime change

4583
03:52:49,680 --> 03:52:52,640
Speaker 1: in Cuba. That's been his whole fucking life goal for

4584
03:52:52,720 --> 03:52:55,400
Speaker 1: a very long time. There's a pretty good Guardian article

4585
03:52:55,440 --> 03:52:58,320
Speaker 1: from last year with the title Marco Rubio Niar's goal

4586
03:52:58,360 --> 03:53:01,520
Speaker 1: of toppling Cuba's government, and I want to read a

4587
03:53:01,520 --> 03:53:04,400
Speaker 1: brief quote from that. The campaign against Cuba's government is

4588
03:53:04,440 --> 03:53:06,960
Speaker 1: the culmination of a personal pursuit spanning decades. In a

4589
03:53:07,040 --> 03:53:09,640
Speaker 1: video released on Cuban Independence Day this week, Rubio said

4590
03:53:09,680 --> 03:53:11,720
Speaker 1: in Spanish that a US embargo was not the reason

4591
03:53:11,760 --> 03:53:14,680
Speaker 1: for the country's privations, telling Cubans that currently the only

4592
03:53:14,720 --> 03:53:16,320
Speaker 1: thing standing in the way of a better future are

4593
03:53:16,360 --> 03:53:18,960
Speaker 1: those who control your country. All roads have been leading

4594
03:53:19,000 --> 03:53:20,760
Speaker 1: to Cuba for Rubio. Set a person who has known

4595
03:53:20,840 --> 03:53:23,520
Speaker 1: Rubio since his time as a local politician in South Florida.

4596
03:53:23,680 --> 03:53:25,480
Speaker 1: He has wanted this for a long time, and now

4597
03:53:25,480 --> 03:53:29,080
Speaker 1: he finally has the authority to reach that goal. Now.

4598
03:53:29,760 --> 03:53:32,080
Speaker 1: Trump has made a couple of comments that make people

4599
03:53:32,120 --> 03:53:34,680
Speaker 1: believe he is in the process of planning to try

4600
03:53:34,680 --> 03:53:37,280
Speaker 1: and force the government of Cuba out one way or another.

4601
03:53:37,680 --> 03:53:40,480
Speaker 1: Last Thursday, he told reporters other presidents have looked at

4602
03:53:40,480 --> 03:53:43,440
Speaker 1: this for fifty sixty years, doing something about Cuba, and

4603
03:53:43,480 --> 03:53:45,040
Speaker 1: it looks like I'll be the one that does it,

4604
03:53:45,080 --> 03:53:47,400
Speaker 1: so I would be happy to do it. Now hard

4605
03:53:47,400 --> 03:53:49,360
Speaker 1: to say is that actually means anything. Trump says a

4606
03:53:49,400 --> 03:53:51,600
Speaker 1: lot of stuff that doesn't come true, but there's been

4607
03:53:51,800 --> 03:53:55,080
Speaker 1: real world reasons to believe that he seriously intends to

4608
03:53:55,120 --> 03:53:58,280
Speaker 1: do this. I mean, first off, what happened in Venezuela, right,

4609
03:53:58,320 --> 03:54:02,400
Speaker 1: where we used our special operations forces to take out

4610
03:54:02,520 --> 03:54:06,720
Speaker 1: and extradite a legally elect it well, to extrite the

4611
03:54:06,720 --> 03:54:09,000
Speaker 1: president of a sovereign country. Right. This is something that

4612
03:54:09,080 --> 03:54:11,680
Speaker 1: like you've had like a lot of planners and depending

4613
03:54:11,680 --> 03:54:13,280
Speaker 1: on talking about for years, is like, well, we could

4614
03:54:13,400 --> 03:54:16,440
Speaker 1: use these guys to just deal with problems at the top, right.

4615
03:54:17,040 --> 03:54:20,800
Speaker 1: And for Rubio, there's a lot of speculation that Venezuela

4616
03:54:20,840 --> 03:54:23,080
Speaker 1: was kind of a proof of concept for him, right,

4617
03:54:23,120 --> 03:54:25,800
Speaker 1: that we could in fact use a very small footprint

4618
03:54:25,840 --> 03:54:29,720
Speaker 1: force get the current ruling regime out of there, or

4619
03:54:29,840 --> 03:54:32,160
Speaker 1: enough of them that they're not willing to fight back anymore.

4620
03:54:32,520 --> 03:54:34,960
Speaker 1: And that might be something that the US military is

4621
03:54:35,000 --> 03:54:37,320
Speaker 1: capable of doing. I don't have a great sense as

4622
03:54:37,320 --> 03:54:40,440
Speaker 1: to Cuba's defensive capacity or how functional they would be

4623
03:54:40,920 --> 03:54:43,360
Speaker 1: at doing this, or how much support the regime would

4624
03:54:43,440 --> 03:54:45,160
Speaker 1: enjoy in the event that the US try this, or

4625
03:54:45,200 --> 03:54:46,960
Speaker 1: how much that support would matter. It kind of depends

4626
03:54:46,960 --> 03:54:49,640
Speaker 1: on the weapons systems they use at the moment. We

4627
03:54:49,760 --> 03:54:52,200
Speaker 1: know that the US Nimics and its strike Group have

4628
03:54:52,400 --> 03:54:54,800
Speaker 1: recently been brought into the South Caribbean c as part

4629
03:54:54,800 --> 03:54:57,400
Speaker 1: of an ongoing military build up, and there have been

4630
03:54:57,400 --> 03:55:00,000
Speaker 1: some other signs that the regime is planning to act.

4631
03:55:00,200 --> 03:55:04,360
Speaker 1: Axios recently published an article that cited administration estimates that

4632
03:55:04,400 --> 03:55:07,800
Speaker 1: Cuba now has some three hundred military drones quote, and

4633
03:55:07,960 --> 03:55:10,600
Speaker 1: was considering using them to attack a US base at

4634
03:55:10,640 --> 03:55:15,040
Speaker 1: Guantanamo Bay, US ships or even targets in Florida, Miami.

4635
03:55:15,280 --> 03:55:19,080
Speaker 1: Your days are numbered now, folks. I'm going to walk

4636
03:55:19,080 --> 03:55:22,000
Speaker 1: you through some stuff. First off, we don't actually have

4637
03:55:22,120 --> 03:55:24,480
Speaker 1: hard evidence that they bought any of these drums. There

4638
03:55:24,520 --> 03:55:26,320
Speaker 1: was some earlier reporting, and I'm sure they have been

4639
03:55:26,360 --> 03:55:28,360
Speaker 1: talking with Iran, and I know that they have ongoing

4640
03:55:28,440 --> 03:55:30,600
Speaker 1: defense agreements with Russia, and I wouldn't be shocked if

4641
03:55:30,600 --> 03:55:32,640
Speaker 1: they had bought like three hundred of these, like Shihed

4642
03:55:32,680 --> 03:55:36,480
Speaker 1: style cheaper suicide drones. Here's the thing. The night before

4643
03:55:36,520 --> 03:55:39,840
Speaker 1: we recorded this, Ukraine launched a major attack on Moscow

4644
03:55:40,560 --> 03:55:44,520
Speaker 1: using four hundred drones. If Cuba does have three hundred

4645
03:55:44,560 --> 03:55:47,320
Speaker 1: Iranian drones, that is roughly enough to carry out an

4646
03:55:47,320 --> 03:55:50,400
Speaker 1: offensive against US forces for two to three seconds, perhaps

4647
03:55:50,400 --> 03:55:53,000
Speaker 1: a little more, maybe more like fifteen to twenty, you know,

4648
03:55:53,280 --> 03:55:55,480
Speaker 1: But it's not an invasion force. It's not really a

4649
03:55:55,520 --> 03:55:58,560
Speaker 1: defensive force. And we also don't know that they even

4650
03:55:58,680 --> 03:56:01,520
Speaker 1: have them, right, it wouldn't be weird if they did.

4651
03:56:01,680 --> 03:56:03,880
Speaker 1: But this isn't any reason to believe there's any kind

4652
03:56:03,880 --> 03:56:05,680
Speaker 1: of a threat coming from Cuba. The fact that they're

4653
03:56:05,680 --> 03:56:08,960
Speaker 1: trying to really hype up three hundred drones. It's twenty

4654
03:56:09,040 --> 03:56:11,720
Speaker 1: twenty six. You can run through that in an afternoon.

4655
03:56:12,120 --> 03:56:12,320
Speaker 11: Yeah.

4656
03:56:12,320 --> 03:56:14,200
Speaker 4: And also, like I just want to be very clear,

4657
03:56:14,280 --> 03:56:17,560
Speaker 4: Cuba is not planning to launch strikes in the United States.

4658
03:56:17,640 --> 03:56:20,520
Speaker 1: Come on, Like, you look at the last sixty years

4659
03:56:20,560 --> 03:56:23,200
Speaker 1: of history, right. We had one big dust up with

4660
03:56:23,240 --> 03:56:25,880
Speaker 1: them over the fucking Bay of Pigs, And obviously the

4661
03:56:25,960 --> 03:56:28,920
Speaker 1: Cuban government funded and sent soldiers and doctors and other

4662
03:56:28,960 --> 03:56:30,760
Speaker 1: stuff into a variety of countries, and that led to

4663
03:56:30,760 --> 03:56:33,640
Speaker 1: conflicts in places like Africa with the US. But there's

4664
03:56:33,640 --> 03:56:37,960
Speaker 1: never been any direct aggression from Cuba towards the United States. No,

4665
03:56:38,120 --> 03:56:40,440
Speaker 1: we're not in danger from them. One of the most

4666
03:56:40,520 --> 03:56:43,160
Speaker 1: ridiculous things you could do today is watch the celebrated

4667
03:56:43,200 --> 03:56:46,600
Speaker 1: Aaron Sorkin movie A Few Good Men, which is entirely

4668
03:56:46,600 --> 03:56:49,120
Speaker 1: about how well, you know, you don't understand how difficult

4669
03:56:49,160 --> 03:56:51,120
Speaker 1: it is protecting America from Cuba.

4670
03:56:51,200 --> 03:56:53,440
Speaker 2: You know, we really we got to be extra.

4671
03:56:53,200 --> 03:56:55,720
Speaker 1: Crazy to keep the Cubans off the walls of the

4672
03:56:55,840 --> 03:57:00,360
Speaker 1: United States. Like, it's fucking nonsense, And it's Marco is

4673
03:57:00,480 --> 03:57:04,120
Speaker 1: number one. Marco comes from a Cuban American background. His

4674
03:57:04,200 --> 03:57:07,360
Speaker 1: whole family hates the Castro government. He has wanted and

4675
03:57:07,400 --> 03:57:10,800
Speaker 1: seen himself as ordained to destroy the communist government in

4676
03:57:10,800 --> 03:57:13,000
Speaker 1: Cuba for his entire life. That doesn't mean that there's

4677
03:57:13,000 --> 03:57:16,040
Speaker 1: any kind of realistic threat here, or any real reason

4678
03:57:16,120 --> 03:57:19,560
Speaker 1: to feel like any kind of actual danger. And you

4679
03:57:19,600 --> 03:57:22,360
Speaker 1: can see that in the report itself. Right, there's even

4680
03:57:22,400 --> 03:57:24,400
Speaker 1: some bits here where they almost admit it. Right, I'm

4681
03:57:24,400 --> 03:57:27,240
Speaker 1: going to read one segment. The Cuban campaign against America

4682
03:57:27,280 --> 03:57:29,400
Speaker 1: is unique. It is a regular and covert Even at

4683
03:57:29,440 --> 03:57:31,840
Speaker 1: the peak of its military power, Havana never possessed the

4684
03:57:31,840 --> 03:57:35,280
Speaker 1: capacity to defeat the United States at a conventional armed conflict. Instead,

4685
03:57:35,320 --> 03:57:37,520
Speaker 1: the Cuban's perfected a new model for a long war

4686
03:57:37,520 --> 03:57:41,600
Speaker 1: of attrition organized around espionage, infiltration, sabotage, proxy networks, and

4687
03:57:41,640 --> 03:57:44,840
Speaker 1: a revolutionary infrastructure designed to turn America against itself.

4688
03:57:45,080 --> 03:57:46,240
Speaker 18: Did Cuba do that?

4689
03:57:47,000 --> 03:57:50,400
Speaker 1: Did Cuba turn America against itself? And also, if they've

4690
03:57:50,400 --> 03:57:52,800
Speaker 1: perfected a war of attrition, why are they out of gas?

4691
03:57:53,440 --> 03:57:56,160
Speaker 1: And like, the United States is the healthiest economy in

4692
03:57:56,200 --> 03:57:58,160
Speaker 1: the world. I mean, it's because we stole a bunch

4693
03:57:58,200 --> 03:58:00,440
Speaker 1: of shit, But there's no evidence that Cuban has done

4694
03:58:00,440 --> 03:58:02,920
Speaker 1: some sort of horrible damage to the US, and in fact,

4695
03:58:02,960 --> 03:58:04,920
Speaker 1: all of the damage says otherwise that we've continued to

4696
03:58:04,960 --> 03:58:08,040
Speaker 1: fuck over the Cubans for goddamn no reason for decades.

4697
03:58:08,680 --> 03:58:10,880
Speaker 1: It's incredibly frustrating. And again, the more you read this,

4698
03:58:10,880 --> 03:58:13,440
Speaker 1: the more you realize unless he's talking about like shit

4699
03:58:13,480 --> 03:58:16,160
Speaker 1: that because he does periodically talk about like fucking South

4700
03:58:16,240 --> 03:58:19,000
Speaker 1: America and some of the different like Cuban like state

4701
03:58:19,080 --> 03:58:22,440
Speaker 1: involvement there. But when he's talking about acts that can

4702
03:58:22,480 --> 03:58:24,840
Speaker 1: be traced to Cuba that involve violence in the US

4703
03:58:24,880 --> 03:58:27,960
Speaker 1: at all, it's just shit from the sixties and seventies, right,

4704
03:58:28,200 --> 03:58:30,600
Speaker 1: which is like back when Cuba's economy was functional, and

4705
03:58:30,640 --> 03:58:33,440
Speaker 1: they're the backing of the USSR. And also like none

4706
03:58:33,480 --> 03:58:35,520
Speaker 1: of it ever came close to doing serious damage to

4707
03:58:35,520 --> 03:58:39,120
Speaker 1: the United States as like a national like as a nation. Right,

4708
03:58:39,400 --> 03:58:41,960
Speaker 1: none of that was never in the fucking cards. You know,

4709
03:58:42,440 --> 03:58:44,800
Speaker 1: it's very frustrating to have to even take any of

4710
03:58:44,840 --> 03:58:46,760
Speaker 1: this serious, but you do because they are going to

4711
03:58:46,800 --> 03:58:50,040
Speaker 1: try to blame and try to punish and imprison people

4712
03:58:50,080 --> 03:58:51,760
Speaker 1: based on this fucking fantasy.

4713
03:58:51,960 --> 03:58:52,160
Speaker 2: Right.

4714
03:58:52,880 --> 03:58:55,520
Speaker 1: And one of the things you've seen a lot of quotes,

4715
03:58:55,560 --> 03:58:57,440
Speaker 1: like when Marco came up to talk and give a

4716
03:58:57,440 --> 03:59:00,280
Speaker 1: speech about this report, he accused Iron and cues Uba

4717
03:59:00,320 --> 03:59:04,200
Speaker 1: of funding both Antifa and the DSA. Right, Like, come on,

4718
03:59:04,520 --> 03:59:07,200
Speaker 1: and he'll make these comments in his speeches. The actual

4719
03:59:07,240 --> 03:59:09,480
Speaker 1: report isn't even willing to go that far, because when

4720
03:59:09,520 --> 03:59:11,440
Speaker 1: you get to the meat of the report, Marcito doesn't

4721
03:59:11,480 --> 03:59:13,320
Speaker 1: even have the guts to call the DSA a Cuban

4722
03:59:13,400 --> 03:59:16,000
Speaker 1: op quote. The DSA was not founded as a Cuban

4723
03:59:16,040 --> 03:59:18,600
Speaker 1: intelligence or influence front. It was born in nineteen eighty

4724
03:59:18,600 --> 03:59:21,280
Speaker 1: two as a fusion of socialist organizations and movements for

4725
03:59:21,360 --> 03:59:24,360
Speaker 1: both the Old Left and New Left. Factions, and you know,

4726
03:59:24,560 --> 03:59:27,040
Speaker 1: like they're right that people in the DSA are very

4727
03:59:27,080 --> 03:59:29,320
Speaker 1: angry about what the US is doing into Cuba because

4728
03:59:29,320 --> 03:59:33,080
Speaker 1: they're out of fuel and starving and being continually harmed

4729
03:59:33,120 --> 03:59:38,040
Speaker 1: by our completely pointless boycotts and trade fucking wars. Like,

4730
03:59:38,080 --> 03:59:40,160
Speaker 1: there's not much more than that for most people to it.

4731
03:59:40,200 --> 03:59:41,600
Speaker 1: There's some weirdos out there, But.

4732
03:59:42,280 --> 03:59:46,440
Speaker 12: It is really interesting how carefully the report talks about DSA,

4733
03:59:46,480 --> 03:59:51,520
Speaker 12: because like DSA's mentioned a lot, DSA is mentioned very frequently.

4734
03:59:51,120 --> 03:59:52,440
Speaker 1: But there's no direct connection.

4735
03:59:52,680 --> 03:59:55,720
Speaker 12: DSA's mentioned twenty four times in a one hundred page document,

4736
03:59:56,000 --> 03:59:59,120
Speaker 12: but they're very careful to be like DSA's could be

4737
03:59:59,160 --> 04:00:02,360
Speaker 12: sympathetic to the human government, but DSA is not a

4738
04:00:02,520 --> 04:00:05,600
Speaker 12: result of Cuban influence necessarily, No.

4739
04:00:06,080 --> 04:00:08,520
Speaker 1: And I think the argument they are making is that

4740
04:00:08,840 --> 04:00:11,680
Speaker 1: you had a split between the old left and the

4741
04:00:11,760 --> 04:00:14,680
Speaker 1: new Left, and the Cuban government founded a bunch of

4742
04:00:14,760 --> 04:00:19,360
Speaker 1: new left factions, and because the DSA is a fusion

4743
04:00:19,400 --> 04:00:21,480
Speaker 1: of old Left and new left factions, that means that

4744
04:00:21,520 --> 04:00:24,560
Speaker 1: they're partly a result of Cuban operation. Sure, that's what

4745
04:00:24,600 --> 04:00:27,880
Speaker 1: they're trying to argue, right, It's build some sort of

4746
04:00:28,040 --> 04:00:32,080
Speaker 1: historical justification to if they go after DSA people or

4747
04:00:32,160 --> 04:00:35,120
Speaker 1: activists who have gone to Cuba to delivery miditarian ade,

4748
04:00:35,360 --> 04:00:39,120
Speaker 1: that build some sort of framework to criminalize people who

4749
04:00:39,160 --> 04:00:43,040
Speaker 1: are sympathetic to people living in Cuba. Yeah, I think

4750
04:00:43,120 --> 04:00:46,320
Speaker 1: that's precisely what's happening. And one thing that's kind of

4751
04:00:46,360 --> 04:00:51,200
Speaker 1: telling is even among news sources that are like sympathetic

4752
04:00:51,280 --> 04:00:54,240
Speaker 1: to the right and to the administration, no one's pretending

4753
04:00:54,280 --> 04:00:57,480
Speaker 1: that this paper isn't just Marco like pushing out his

4754
04:00:57,560 --> 04:01:00,880
Speaker 1: own personal vendettas. Like I found a Washington Examiner article

4755
04:01:01,320 --> 04:01:05,160
Speaker 1: summarized the report as Marco Rubio accusing the Cuban government.

4756
04:01:05,160 --> 04:01:08,160
Speaker 1: Here's an exact quote from the Washington Examiner. Secretary of

4757
04:01:08,160 --> 04:01:10,400
Speaker 1: State Marco Rubio accused the Cuban government of running one

4758
04:01:10,400 --> 04:01:13,000
Speaker 1: of the most sophisticated infiltrations of US politics, in part

4759
04:01:13,080 --> 04:01:15,760
Speaker 1: using the Democratic Socialists of America. So even with a

4760
04:01:15,800 --> 04:01:17,120
Speaker 1: lot of these articles, they're like, yeah, this is just

4761
04:01:17,200 --> 04:01:21,280
Speaker 1: Rubio fucking spouting off right, like this is mostly oh Marco,

4762
04:01:21,400 --> 04:01:24,720
Speaker 1: And among some of like the crazy like anti communist

4763
04:01:24,760 --> 04:01:26,640
Speaker 1: sites I've been reading, they're still like, well, there's nothing

4764
04:01:26,720 --> 04:01:29,320
Speaker 1: new in this. They didn't because they are reading like, well,

4765
04:01:29,360 --> 04:01:33,160
Speaker 1: nothing passed like the seventies involves the US directly.

4766
04:01:32,840 --> 04:01:34,560
Speaker 12: Which is going to say there's not real danger here, right,

4767
04:01:34,640 --> 04:01:38,040
Speaker 12: there was no huge danger. One of the main activists

4768
04:01:38,040 --> 04:01:41,440
Speaker 12: that Code Pink, which was this organization that that co

4769
04:01:41,600 --> 04:01:44,080
Speaker 12: organized some of those ad trips to Cuba, is under

4770
04:01:44,120 --> 04:01:48,120
Speaker 12: federal investigation right now. And this indicates that despite how

4771
04:01:48,160 --> 04:01:50,280
Speaker 12: much of this is just Rubio having fun with his

4772
04:01:50,320 --> 04:01:53,480
Speaker 12: little pet project, this does show where the targets of

4773
04:01:53,520 --> 04:01:56,920
Speaker 12: the administration are. Oh yeah, and that can be the

4774
04:01:57,040 --> 04:01:59,960
Speaker 12: DSA and people doing humanitarian aid trips.

4775
04:02:00,200 --> 04:02:03,600
Speaker 1: And it's specifically because of that humanitarian aid trip, right,

4776
04:02:03,640 --> 04:02:06,640
Speaker 1: like that gave Rubio a really good like you know,

4777
04:02:06,720 --> 04:02:08,760
Speaker 1: honestly wasn't anything. I think just pissed him off because

4778
04:02:08,760 --> 04:02:10,840
Speaker 1: he hates the Cuban government more than anything, and the

4779
04:02:10,880 --> 04:02:13,000
Speaker 1: idea that anyone would want to like bring aid to

4780
04:02:13,080 --> 04:02:17,360
Speaker 1: the people in Cuba is like infuriating to him. Now again,

4781
04:02:17,440 --> 04:02:19,840
Speaker 1: we know that Trump is in the process of planning

4782
04:02:19,880 --> 04:02:21,520
Speaker 1: to try and force the government of Cuba out one

4783
04:02:21,520 --> 04:02:23,600
Speaker 1: way or another. That doesn't mean he actually will, right

4784
04:02:23,680 --> 04:02:25,960
Speaker 1: he hasn't committed fully to that yet. But given what

4785
04:02:26,040 --> 04:02:28,120
Speaker 1: happened in Venezuela, and given what's going on in Iran,

4786
04:02:28,400 --> 04:02:29,920
Speaker 1: I think it would be foolish to say I don't

4787
04:02:29,920 --> 04:02:32,320
Speaker 1: think he's going to try, right, Like, I think that's

4788
04:02:32,360 --> 04:02:34,720
Speaker 1: not the smart if I'm making a bet. I certainly

4789
04:02:34,800 --> 04:02:36,560
Speaker 1: hope he doesn't. I hope they get scared. I hope

4790
04:02:36,560 --> 04:02:39,320
Speaker 1: shit with Iran is bad enough that they chicken out.

4791
04:02:39,760 --> 04:02:41,600
Speaker 1: But I think it would be foolish to assume they're

4792
04:02:41,640 --> 04:02:45,080
Speaker 1: not going to try and unseat the government of Cuba. Right, Yeah,

4793
04:02:45,160 --> 04:02:47,040
Speaker 1: I don't think that's the rational way to look at this,

4794
04:02:47,280 --> 04:02:50,920
Speaker 1: right And whether this is all bluster or not, you know,

4795
04:02:51,080 --> 04:02:53,240
Speaker 1: is going to be seen. But as I said, the

4796
04:02:53,280 --> 04:02:55,880
Speaker 1: US Nimits and Strike Group have moved into the South Caribbean,

4797
04:02:56,440 --> 04:02:58,160
Speaker 1: and there's a lot of talk about, like, oh, we

4798
04:02:58,200 --> 04:03:01,920
Speaker 1: think the Cubans are planning an attack on Gwando. Last Thursday,

4799
04:03:02,000 --> 04:03:04,520
Speaker 1: Marco Ruby repeated his claim that Havana has weapons they

4800
04:03:04,560 --> 04:03:07,360
Speaker 1: acquired from quote Russia and China, and that they host

4801
04:03:07,440 --> 04:03:10,280
Speaker 1: Russian and in Chinese intelligence in country, which is also

4802
04:03:10,360 --> 04:03:13,160
Speaker 1: interesting that he's so stuck in the Cold War he

4803
04:03:13,200 --> 04:03:16,200
Speaker 1: has to keep bringing Russia into it. Now. There's a

4804
04:03:16,240 --> 04:03:18,240
Speaker 1: big debate as to like how can it It is Trump

4805
04:03:18,480 --> 04:03:21,560
Speaker 1: actually to unseating the Cuban government, And that's always hard

4806
04:03:21,560 --> 04:03:23,560
Speaker 1: to tell because when he does talk about it, it

4807
04:03:23,600 --> 04:03:25,680
Speaker 1: sounds like, oh, he wants that feather in his cap.

4808
04:03:26,000 --> 04:03:27,520
Speaker 1: But you also get the feeling this is a thing

4809
04:03:27,520 --> 04:03:30,560
Speaker 1: where whoever he talks to last as in a lot

4810
04:03:30,560 --> 04:03:32,960
Speaker 1: of cases, going to heavily set his agenda. And Senator

4811
04:03:33,000 --> 04:03:35,600
Speaker 1: Chris Murphy, who serves on the Foreign Relations Committee, said

4812
04:03:35,640 --> 04:03:37,760
Speaker 1: something like that quote. I do think that as Trump

4813
04:03:37,800 --> 04:03:39,960
Speaker 1: gets older and he spends his day sleeping and worrying

4814
04:03:40,000 --> 04:03:42,880
Speaker 1: only about his ballroom, he's increasingly susceptible to dangerous people

4815
04:03:42,880 --> 04:03:45,080
Speaker 1: around him with dangerous agendas. And there is a crowd

4816
04:03:45,120 --> 04:03:47,400
Speaker 1: of Cuba hawks who have always wanted us to invade,

4817
04:03:47,520 --> 04:03:49,360
Speaker 1: and who think they might be able to take advantage

4818
04:03:49,360 --> 04:03:51,240
Speaker 1: of it increasingly checked out old man, and I just

4819
04:03:51,280 --> 04:03:53,520
Speaker 1: think we have to be prepared for that. And honestly,

4820
04:03:53,560 --> 04:03:55,560
Speaker 1: I think Chris pretty much like that. Yeah, it's more

4821
04:03:55,640 --> 04:04:00,240
Speaker 1: or less right, Chris. I think that's that's basically the accurate.

4822
04:03:59,880 --> 04:04:04,920
Speaker 4: Is sanest man in the room? Yeah, that sounds right

4823
04:04:05,000 --> 04:04:05,200
Speaker 4: to me.

4824
04:04:07,240 --> 04:04:12,800
Speaker 12: Let's turn to the midterm elections before we close in Florida,

4825
04:04:13,040 --> 04:04:16,600
Speaker 12: the Groper candidate for Governor, James Fishback, who I did

4826
04:04:16,640 --> 04:04:20,040
Speaker 12: an episode about a few months ago, is not going

4827
04:04:20,080 --> 04:04:23,880
Speaker 12: to win that election, but he is pulling double digits,

4828
04:04:24,080 --> 04:04:29,080
Speaker 12: which is bad. And worse, he is dominating youth polls.

4829
04:04:29,320 --> 04:04:32,080
Speaker 12: He has fifty one percent in youth polls. That's ages

4830
04:04:32,120 --> 04:04:36,960
Speaker 12: eighteen to thirty four. Really really dark look at a

4831
04:04:37,120 --> 04:04:40,800
Speaker 12: future of the Republican Party. Fishback is like barely even

4832
04:04:40,840 --> 04:04:43,280
Speaker 12: like a crypto fascist. He's barely even hiding it. I

4833
04:04:43,320 --> 04:04:46,040
Speaker 12: mean he plays with dog whistles but also just openly

4834
04:04:46,080 --> 04:04:50,240
Speaker 12: says a bunch of anti Semitic stuff and very racist attacks,

4835
04:04:50,800 --> 04:04:52,880
Speaker 12: all with a sort of wink wink, nudge nudge in

4836
04:04:52,920 --> 04:04:58,400
Speaker 12: that classic Groper charisma style. But there's another aspect of

4837
04:04:58,800 --> 04:05:02,080
Speaker 12: the Fishback race to briefly mention, is that there's been

4838
04:05:02,120 --> 04:05:07,120
Speaker 12: a lot of AI ads targeted against Fishback, where it

4839
04:05:07,200 --> 04:05:11,920
Speaker 12: has like AI generated video deep fake style of Fishback

4840
04:05:12,000 --> 04:05:15,960
Speaker 12: with like the Squad and Russia and Putin and Alan

4841
04:05:16,040 --> 04:05:20,960
Speaker 12: Omar and Rashida Taalob foreign generals Muslim leaders in the

4842
04:05:20,960 --> 04:05:24,560
Speaker 12: Middle East with her jobs. Basically, he's like welcoming all

4843
04:05:24,600 --> 04:05:27,800
Speaker 12: of these people into his home and they cut up

4844
04:05:28,040 --> 04:05:32,360
Speaker 12: an anti Israel Cake and that's the ad. It looks

4845
04:05:33,120 --> 04:05:35,160
Speaker 12: I mean like someone like me can tell it's AI

4846
04:05:36,160 --> 04:05:39,840
Speaker 12: A boomer might not be able to. And this is

4847
04:05:39,840 --> 04:05:43,240
Speaker 12: something that Thomas Massey, since losing his race, has said

4848
04:05:43,240 --> 04:05:48,360
Speaker 12: that he believes, through talking with with voters, specifically older voters,

4849
04:05:48,800 --> 04:05:52,960
Speaker 12: that many boomers and older voters believed the ai ads

4850
04:05:53,000 --> 04:05:55,960
Speaker 12: against MASSI that Massey was in like a threuple with

4851
04:05:56,000 --> 04:05:59,120
Speaker 12: like AOC and someone else Elanomar. I think that he

4852
04:05:59,160 --> 04:06:01,400
Speaker 12: actually got called. So There's office got calls to asking

4853
04:06:01,440 --> 04:06:04,160
Speaker 12: if this was true. So these sorts of aiads are

4854
04:06:04,200 --> 04:06:08,120
Speaker 12: a real problem, obviously, the fact that these are against Fishback.

4855
04:06:10,040 --> 04:06:12,440
Speaker 12: I'm not being synthetic to Fishback here, but this is

4856
04:06:12,480 --> 04:06:18,040
Speaker 12: a more general societal problem. Moving on to another governor's

4857
04:06:18,120 --> 04:06:22,280
Speaker 12: race in Wisconsin, Democratic socialist Francesca Hong is ahead in

4858
04:06:22,320 --> 04:06:26,240
Speaker 12: the polls, but many people are still undecided. In a

4859
04:06:26,320 --> 04:06:29,240
Speaker 12: Wedgewood poll from mid July, Francesco Hong is up thirty

4860
04:06:29,440 --> 04:06:34,200
Speaker 12: eight percent, Mendela Barnes is thirty percent, and David Crowley

4861
04:06:34,280 --> 04:06:40,160
Speaker 12: is nine percent, though undecided or supporting another candidate is

4862
04:06:40,160 --> 04:06:42,560
Speaker 12: pulling up twenty three percent in that poll, so there

4863
04:06:42,600 --> 04:06:45,120
Speaker 12: could still be upwards of like twenty percent of people

4864
04:06:45,120 --> 04:06:48,000
Speaker 12: who are undecided. There's been some other polls in the

4865
04:06:48,040 --> 04:06:50,960
Speaker 12: past few days that show Francesca Hong about fifteen percent

4866
04:06:51,040 --> 04:06:54,640
Speaker 12: above everyone else, so that is a good sign for her.

4867
04:06:55,160 --> 04:06:58,680
Speaker 12: I know there's been some organizers from New York and

4868
04:06:58,720 --> 04:07:00,760
Speaker 12: across the country going into with Conson right now to

4869
04:07:00,760 --> 04:07:05,080
Speaker 12: help with his last leg of the campaign. This is

4870
04:07:05,120 --> 04:07:07,960
Speaker 12: a very important race looking at what the future of

4871
04:07:08,520 --> 04:07:12,000
Speaker 12: the viability of democratic socialism is going to be in

4872
04:07:12,040 --> 04:07:16,640
Speaker 12: swing states. This past week, David Crowley re entered the race,

4873
04:07:17,320 --> 04:07:20,640
Speaker 12: which may split the moderate vote, which could help Hong

4874
04:07:20,800 --> 04:07:22,840
Speaker 12: win the primary. It's another thing to keep an eye

4875
04:07:22,880 --> 04:07:26,320
Speaker 12: on here. In Maine, Troy Jackson is said to be

4876
04:07:26,480 --> 04:07:30,520
Speaker 12: the Democratic cent nominee after organizers and volunteers secured the

4877
04:07:30,640 --> 04:07:34,960
Speaker 12: vast majority of delegates for the nominee replacement convention. I've

4878
04:07:35,000 --> 04:07:37,480
Speaker 12: mentioned Jackson a few times on the show because he

4879
04:07:37,680 --> 04:07:41,680
Speaker 12: ran for governor with the endorsement of DSA and Bernie Sanders,

4880
04:07:42,000 --> 04:07:44,680
Speaker 12: who was the only person to receive the endorsement of

4881
04:07:44,760 --> 04:07:50,280
Speaker 12: DSA Platner did not. Jackson's a former state lawmaker, a

4882
04:07:50,280 --> 04:07:53,640
Speaker 12: five generation lagger, very pro labor, like the most like

4883
04:07:53,760 --> 04:07:57,960
Speaker 12: legitimate working class, pro labor candidate. He's pulling a little

4884
04:07:57,960 --> 04:08:00,440
Speaker 12: bit ahead of Collins right now, like about three percent,

4885
04:08:00,800 --> 04:08:02,360
Speaker 12: but this is going to be a very close race.

4886
04:08:02,400 --> 04:08:03,520
Speaker 1: This is going to be very tough.

4887
04:08:04,600 --> 04:08:07,200
Speaker 12: Another really close race right now is the Democratic send

4888
04:08:07,400 --> 04:08:12,560
Speaker 12: primary in Michigan with corporate and APAC backed Hailey Stevens

4889
04:08:12,640 --> 04:08:16,920
Speaker 12: going up against left wing populist Abdul l said. There

4890
04:08:16,960 --> 04:08:20,360
Speaker 12: has been a ton of outside spending the past few weeks,

4891
04:08:20,360 --> 04:08:24,840
Speaker 12: with multiple attack ads smearing L said as quote unquote sexist,

4892
04:08:25,600 --> 04:08:30,320
Speaker 12: and these are all just for him, like criticizing female politicians,

4893
04:08:30,360 --> 04:08:34,760
Speaker 12: like criticizing Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama, like not attacking

4894
04:08:34,800 --> 04:08:38,080
Speaker 12: them for being women, but doing very sometimes actually very

4895
04:08:38,120 --> 04:08:42,440
Speaker 12: soft criticism of like their ability to improve the world

4896
04:08:42,520 --> 04:08:46,480
Speaker 12: as political actors. But the playbook that Stevens and that

4897
04:08:46,600 --> 04:08:48,720
Speaker 12: larger campaign has been using has been trying to smear

4898
04:08:48,800 --> 04:08:52,400
Speaker 12: L sayid as a quote unquote sexist podcast bro. This

4899
04:08:52,440 --> 04:08:54,840
Speaker 12: is the sort of last last light of defense. This

4900
04:08:54,920 --> 04:08:57,000
Speaker 12: style of liberalism has had, this going back to this

4901
04:08:57,000 --> 04:08:59,960
Speaker 12: sort of identity reductionism. When they are faced with the

4902
04:09:00,200 --> 04:09:03,800
Speaker 12: vast actual economic and policy differences between two candidates, the

4903
04:09:03,840 --> 04:09:07,320
Speaker 12: only thing they can do is Oh, but Hailey Stevens,

4904
04:09:07,360 --> 04:09:10,000
Speaker 12: I am a woman, and this man must hate women.

4905
04:09:10,320 --> 04:09:13,200
Speaker 12: APAC is helping with this. They've already spent at least

4906
04:09:13,240 --> 04:09:16,960
Speaker 12: fifteen million dollars, with other corporate packs helping Stevens with

4907
04:09:17,000 --> 04:09:21,880
Speaker 12: another twelve million. As of July first, there's already been

4908
04:09:22,000 --> 04:09:25,960
Speaker 12: over forty six million in ads spending, seventy four percent

4909
04:09:25,960 --> 04:09:29,240
Speaker 12: of which supports Stevens, and there's a lot of money

4910
04:09:29,240 --> 04:09:32,080
Speaker 12: going in since that July first date as well. One

4911
04:09:32,080 --> 04:09:36,680
Speaker 12: of the pro Stevens ads has manufactured a fake Obama

4912
04:09:36,760 --> 04:09:40,320
Speaker 12: endorsement using old clips of Obama talking about Hailey Stevens

4913
04:09:40,360 --> 04:09:43,800
Speaker 12: because she worked with him like fifteen years ago. Now,

4914
04:09:43,840 --> 04:09:47,920
Speaker 12: Obama has declined to comment on this sort of manufactured

4915
04:09:47,960 --> 04:09:51,720
Speaker 12: fake endorsement, which is effectively just letting them do that.

4916
04:09:51,960 --> 04:09:53,520
Speaker 12: If he's not going to say no, I haven't actually

4917
04:09:53,600 --> 04:09:56,520
Speaker 12: endorsed in this race, then basically he's allowing them to

4918
04:09:56,680 --> 04:10:02,000
Speaker 12: lie about him endorsing Stevens in this race. Meanwhile, laid

4919
04:10:02,080 --> 04:10:04,680
Speaker 12: is on the news almost every week getting grilled about

4920
04:10:04,680 --> 04:10:08,160
Speaker 12: why he doesn't support Israel enough, and Israel has been

4921
04:10:08,200 --> 04:10:11,320
Speaker 12: a very important part of this race. This is in Michigan,

4922
04:10:11,680 --> 04:10:14,240
Speaker 12: Michigan was a big part of the Uncommitted movement, and

4923
04:10:14,560 --> 04:10:19,680
Speaker 12: Stephens is a ridiculously pro Israel candidate who has voted

4924
04:10:19,720 --> 04:10:23,280
Speaker 12: to send tens of billions of dollars in unrestricted aid

4925
04:10:23,280 --> 04:10:27,320
Speaker 12: to Israel, has stopped the Lebanon War Powers Resolution, has

4926
04:10:27,360 --> 04:10:29,760
Speaker 12: banned the State Department from citing Go's the Health Ministry

4927
04:10:29,800 --> 04:10:34,679
Speaker 12: death tolls, and Stevens also sees Israel in her dreams.

4928
04:10:36,720 --> 04:10:41,600
Speaker 21: And in the United States Congress. I will continue to

4929
04:10:41,760 --> 04:10:46,160
Speaker 21: fight for the people of Israel. I will continue to

4930
04:10:46,280 --> 04:10:51,840
Speaker 21: fight for Israel's existence. Israel comes to me in my dreams.

4931
04:10:52,080 --> 04:10:53,720
Speaker 21: I see Israel's future.

4932
04:10:54,120 --> 04:10:57,760
Speaker 12: Meanwhile, Lsaid wants to abolish ice, fight for medicare for all,

4933
04:10:58,280 --> 04:11:02,320
Speaker 12: and cut off all aid to Israel. He's certainly running

4934
04:11:02,360 --> 04:11:07,280
Speaker 12: a downstream of Zoron Mamdani's style campaign with his videos.

4935
04:11:07,600 --> 04:11:10,440
Speaker 12: He has declined to explicitly call himself a Democratic Socialist,

4936
04:11:10,680 --> 04:11:13,720
Speaker 12: but there's a lot of similarities in his platform to

4937
04:11:14,160 --> 04:11:18,640
Speaker 12: some other DSA candidates like Zoron, though Elsay is not

4938
04:11:18,880 --> 04:11:21,840
Speaker 12: endorsed by DSA, but he is running with backing of

4939
04:11:21,880 --> 04:11:25,800
Speaker 12: the UAW and the Working Families Party. Speaking of elections,

4940
04:11:26,160 --> 04:11:30,360
Speaker 12: let's close out by talking about election security because on

4941
04:11:30,440 --> 04:11:33,440
Speaker 12: Thursday night, President Trump delivered what was promised to be

4942
04:11:33,920 --> 04:11:37,840
Speaker 12: a very important address to the nation on election security.

4943
04:11:38,600 --> 04:11:42,080
Speaker 12: The speech started out as a basically mini version of

4944
04:11:42,120 --> 04:11:45,160
Speaker 12: his last State of the Union before he announced the

4945
04:11:45,200 --> 04:11:49,360
Speaker 12: release of heavily redacted CIA documents on how China tried

4946
04:11:49,400 --> 04:11:54,520
Speaker 12: to influence our past elections, intelligence reports on possible vulnerabilities

4947
04:11:54,560 --> 04:11:58,440
Speaker 12: in our election infrastructure, and finally claiming that two hundred

4948
04:11:58,480 --> 04:12:02,560
Speaker 12: and fifty thousand non citizens are registered to vote, with

4949
04:12:02,640 --> 04:12:06,440
Speaker 12: no further details or evidence of that number. Basically, this

4950
04:12:06,600 --> 04:12:09,360
Speaker 12: whole speech was a big ploy to try to pass

4951
04:12:09,400 --> 04:12:13,240
Speaker 12: this Safe Act to restrict mail in voting and disenfranchised

4952
04:12:13,280 --> 04:12:15,480
Speaker 12: voters with heightened ID requirements.

4953
04:12:16,040 --> 04:12:17,240
Speaker 4: Trump also talked about.

4954
04:12:17,080 --> 04:12:22,720
Speaker 12: How China had stolen election data. What actually happened was

4955
04:12:22,880 --> 04:12:28,679
Speaker 12: China downloaded publicly available voter data in twenty twenty two

4956
04:12:28,840 --> 04:12:31,440
Speaker 12: that the Trump Aadmin now claims could be used by

4957
04:12:31,520 --> 04:12:36,960
Speaker 12: foreign countries to fraudulently vote in our elections. And of

4958
04:12:36,960 --> 04:12:41,480
Speaker 12: course China was looking at possible influence operations as many

4959
04:12:41,720 --> 04:12:46,280
Speaker 12: foreign countries do. Russia has done foreign influence operations that's

4960
04:12:46,320 --> 04:12:50,520
Speaker 12: not changing vote tallies or hacking into voting machines that's

4961
04:12:50,880 --> 04:12:54,960
Speaker 12: doing disinformation campaigns, which, as we've seen with Tenet Media,

4962
04:12:55,360 --> 04:12:59,560
Speaker 12: Russia has certainly been involved in recently. And according to

4963
04:12:59,560 --> 04:13:03,320
Speaker 12: some of these documents, China was looking into if they

4964
04:13:03,360 --> 04:13:06,040
Speaker 12: wanted to run influence operations for the twenty twenty election,

4965
04:13:06,440 --> 04:13:11,280
Speaker 12: and they actually declined to. After Trump's address, reporters questioned

4966
04:13:11,440 --> 04:13:14,520
Speaker 12: John Solomon, a former right wing journalist who Trump brought

4967
04:13:14,560 --> 04:13:18,480
Speaker 12: onto his election task force to investigate possible voter fraud,

4968
04:13:19,080 --> 04:13:22,960
Speaker 12: and Solomon clarified that there's no evidence that any foreign

4969
04:13:23,040 --> 04:13:27,360
Speaker 12: power tampered with US voting machines or manipulated the vote count.

4970
04:13:28,960 --> 04:13:31,600
Speaker 4: Do you acknowledge that there were no votes changed in twenty.

4971
04:13:31,320 --> 04:13:33,840
Speaker 26: Twenty I've all I can acknowledge is what the intelligence shows, right.

4972
04:13:33,840 --> 04:13:36,520
Speaker 26: I only know the Intelligence Committee has zero evidence that's

4973
04:13:36,520 --> 04:13:39,520
Speaker 26: someone's flipped. That a foreign power flip they vote in

4974
04:13:39,560 --> 04:13:40,680
Speaker 26: twenty twenty, twenty two or.

4975
04:13:40,680 --> 04:13:43,400
Speaker 1: Twenty four, and you have no you're able to work

4976
04:13:43,440 --> 04:13:44,520
Speaker 1: after all the documents, you're.

4977
04:13:44,400 --> 04:13:46,920
Speaker 20: Able to acknowledge that Venezuela has not tampered with voting

4978
04:13:46,920 --> 04:13:47,960
Speaker 20: machines in the United States.

4979
04:13:48,000 --> 04:13:48,600
Speaker 5: No, the.

4980
04:13:50,440 --> 04:13:52,960
Speaker 26: Intelligence is very clear they did it on their own machines.

4981
04:13:52,960 --> 04:13:54,760
Speaker 26: Why is important that they did it on their machines.

4982
04:13:54,960 --> 04:13:57,800
Speaker 26: Their machine protocols are the same as America. Why not

4983
04:13:57,840 --> 04:13:58,640
Speaker 26: because for a long.

4984
04:13:58,440 --> 04:13:58,960
Speaker 4: Time they did it.

4985
04:14:00,840 --> 04:14:04,760
Speaker 1: Election was in fact the results as we of the

4986
04:14:04,760 --> 04:14:06,080
Speaker 1: American vi researching.

4987
04:14:06,120 --> 04:14:07,560
Speaker 2: So let me let me have this is the first one.

4988
04:14:07,640 --> 04:14:08,640
Speaker 4: There's no intelligence.

4989
04:14:10,800 --> 04:14:14,720
Speaker 2: There's no intelligence at the election. Trumps.

4990
04:14:17,720 --> 04:14:22,680
Speaker 12: On Friday, the day following Trump's address, DHS Secretary Mullen

4991
04:14:22,960 --> 04:14:27,520
Speaker 12: announced that regardless of if the Save Act passes, he

4992
04:14:27,600 --> 04:14:33,000
Speaker 12: will institute mandatory changes to election security, including scrubbing states

4993
04:14:33,120 --> 04:14:33,960
Speaker 12: voter rules.

4994
04:14:35,560 --> 04:14:39,000
Speaker 29: We are going to make our second our our security

4995
04:14:39,080 --> 04:14:44,520
Speaker 29: enhancements mandatory, meaning that if these states want to grant

4996
04:14:45,680 --> 04:14:49,720
Speaker 29: and they want to be reimbursed to work or to

4997
04:14:49,800 --> 04:14:54,480
Speaker 29: run federal elections, they're going to have to implement security issues,

4998
04:14:56,280 --> 04:14:59,320
Speaker 29: just security issues. We're not trying to get into anything else,

4999
04:14:59,360 --> 04:15:02,960
Speaker 29: but we're saying the machines had to be secured, and

5000
04:15:02,960 --> 04:15:06,920
Speaker 29: that your voter restoration list needs to be scrubbed.

5001
04:15:07,440 --> 04:15:10,800
Speaker 12: If this actually happens, this could possibly lead to many

5002
04:15:10,840 --> 04:15:13,720
Speaker 12: people thinking they are registered to vote who are actually

5003
04:15:13,720 --> 04:15:16,720
Speaker 12: not come election day and then be unable to vote.

5004
04:15:16,760 --> 04:15:20,640
Speaker 12: This is a voter disenfranchisement tactic. Second time alone later

5005
04:15:21,240 --> 04:15:25,120
Speaker 12: directly contradicted what John Solomon said the night before, saying

5006
04:15:25,160 --> 04:15:29,920
Speaker 12: that quote, we know for sure that foreign adversaries have

5007
04:15:30,080 --> 04:15:32,920
Speaker 12: vital pieces of our voting machines, and the quote unquote

5008
04:15:33,000 --> 04:15:35,720
Speaker 12: key to the back end of these machines.

5009
04:15:37,200 --> 04:15:42,000
Speaker 29: We know that they can change voter registration and your vote.

5010
04:15:43,040 --> 04:15:47,000
Speaker 29: We know it's possible. There's not a question. It's not

5011
04:15:47,080 --> 04:15:47,920
Speaker 29: even for debate.

5012
04:15:48,200 --> 04:15:51,720
Speaker 12: Finally, on Wednesday, the House advanced a bill to stop

5013
04:15:51,800 --> 04:15:58,840
Speaker 12: insider trading, except Republicans added Save Act style measures into

5014
04:15:58,880 --> 04:16:02,400
Speaker 12: this bill to pass new voter ID requirements to please Trump.

5015
04:16:02,800 --> 04:16:05,760
Speaker 12: And part of why they put those Save AX style

5016
04:16:05,800 --> 04:16:08,560
Speaker 12: measures into this bill is so that they could attack

5017
04:16:08,680 --> 04:16:13,120
Speaker 12: Democrats in upcoming elections for voting against a bill to

5018
04:16:13,280 --> 04:16:16,440
Speaker 12: stop insider trading. Literally seconds after this bill was voted

5019
04:16:16,480 --> 04:16:21,720
Speaker 12: on the White House, rapid response accounts started posting, quote, disgraceful.

5020
04:16:21,960 --> 04:16:24,840
Speaker 12: One hundred and ninety eight Democrats just voted against banning

5021
04:16:24,880 --> 04:16:28,080
Speaker 12: members of Congress from trading stocks while they're in office.

5022
04:16:28,320 --> 04:16:32,320
Speaker 12: They're corrupt, as you can see, very transparent ploy to

5023
04:16:32,880 --> 04:16:36,280
Speaker 12: manufacture a vote to be used in elections to attack

5024
04:16:36,320 --> 04:16:40,720
Speaker 12: Democrats for being corrupt. This quote unquote insider Trading Bill

5025
04:16:40,760 --> 04:16:43,920
Speaker 12: will now go to the Senate with those Save Act

5026
04:16:43,920 --> 04:16:46,080
Speaker 12: style voter id measures included.

5027
04:16:47,120 --> 04:16:49,720
Speaker 1: All right, thank you for that, gare. And last, but

5028
04:16:49,760 --> 04:16:53,760
Speaker 1: certainly not least, we've got one more edition of the

5029
04:16:53,800 --> 04:16:56,840
Speaker 1: Tariff Song, and then talking about tariffs after it.

5030
04:16:58,280 --> 04:17:02,520
Speaker 4: All right, let's talk tariffs. So long ago, in a

5031
04:17:02,560 --> 04:17:05,240
Speaker 4: galaxy far far away, which is to say, really truly

5032
04:17:05,400 --> 04:17:08,400
Speaker 4: not that long ago, we did an episode on the

5033
04:17:08,520 --> 04:17:13,360
Speaker 4: hideously illegal terrorists Trump imposed under the quote unquote authority

5034
04:17:14,120 --> 04:17:16,760
Speaker 4: of Section one twenty two of the Trade Act of

5035
04:17:16,880 --> 04:17:20,520
Speaker 4: nineteen seventy four. These are the ones that are based

5036
04:17:20,600 --> 04:17:24,080
Speaker 4: on this completely manufactured crisis about the US facing a

5037
04:17:24,120 --> 04:17:26,920
Speaker 4: balance of payments crisis, a thing that cannot happen and

5038
04:17:27,120 --> 04:17:31,000
Speaker 4: is not happening now. These tariffs, which is just a

5039
04:17:31,040 --> 04:17:35,640
Speaker 4: general ten percent tariffnal goods, are set to expire on

5040
04:17:35,720 --> 04:17:38,520
Speaker 4: Friday July twenty fourth, quite possibly the day you're listening

5041
04:17:38,600 --> 04:17:43,640
Speaker 4: to this. So on Monday, July twentieth, Trump took the

5042
04:17:43,720 --> 04:17:46,600
Speaker 4: most dramatic terrorf action he has taken since the Supreme

5043
04:17:46,640 --> 04:17:50,960
Speaker 4: Court found he was illegally using the International Emergency Economic

5044
04:17:51,000 --> 04:17:54,000
Speaker 4: Powers Act to apply TERRAFS in February by the time

5045
04:17:54,080 --> 04:17:57,080
Speaker 4: you are listening to this, presumably he is going to

5046
04:17:57,120 --> 04:18:00,640
Speaker 4: have unleashed a wrath. You know, I was originally a raft,

5047
04:18:00,680 --> 04:18:04,160
Speaker 4: but wrath actually works too. Of new tariffs, but as

5048
04:18:04,240 --> 04:18:06,120
Speaker 4: off to time of recording, the one that has been

5049
04:18:06,600 --> 04:18:10,000
Speaker 4: revealed specifically is that he is imposing a fifty percent

5050
04:18:10,080 --> 04:18:13,800
Speaker 4: tariff on goods imported from Canada or some goods imported

5051
04:18:13,840 --> 04:18:16,560
Speaker 4: from Canada. Now I'm going to get into what that

5052
04:18:16,760 --> 04:18:19,520
Speaker 4: tariff is actually going to do in a second. But

5053
04:18:19,560 --> 04:18:23,000
Speaker 4: the important thing here is not the specific tariff itself,

5054
04:18:23,320 --> 04:18:25,920
Speaker 4: but the legal authority Trump is using to invoke it.

5055
04:18:26,360 --> 04:18:28,920
Speaker 4: He is invoking section three thirty eight of the so

5056
04:18:29,040 --> 04:18:33,360
Speaker 4: called smoot Holly TERRRIF Act. If the name vaguely rings

5057
04:18:33,360 --> 04:18:37,480
Speaker 4: a bell, it's probably because smoot Holly is best known

5058
04:18:37,600 --> 04:18:40,240
Speaker 4: for exacerbating the Great Depression, to the extent that it

5059
04:18:40,280 --> 04:18:43,520
Speaker 4: is in basically every every history textbook of the United

5060
04:18:43,560 --> 04:18:46,400
Speaker 4: States so you will read in high school, will have

5061
04:18:46,520 --> 04:18:51,640
Speaker 4: this in it. This Act smoot Holly is the final

5062
04:18:51,680 --> 04:18:54,880
Speaker 4: frontier for terriff authority. It is the tariff big red button.

5063
04:18:55,120 --> 04:18:58,480
Speaker 4: It is a power that has never been invoked before,

5064
04:18:58,880 --> 04:19:02,160
Speaker 4: even by its creative and I genuinely don't know if

5065
04:19:02,200 --> 04:19:06,120
Speaker 4: it even still exists. This is the tariff rubicon, and

5066
04:19:06,160 --> 04:19:10,520
Speaker 4: Trump has just crossed it. Now, before we get into

5067
04:19:10,600 --> 04:19:13,120
Speaker 4: this more, let's talk for a second about Trump's nominal

5068
04:19:13,160 --> 04:19:16,680
Speaker 4: fifty percent teriff on Canada, which is actually much less

5069
04:19:16,720 --> 04:19:19,440
Speaker 4: of a big deal than it looks. The tariffs are

5070
04:19:19,480 --> 04:19:22,680
Speaker 4: supposed to take effect on August nineteenth and has about

5071
04:19:22,840 --> 04:19:29,160
Speaker 4: a million carveouts for you know, different kinds of Canadian goods, including,

5072
04:19:29,160 --> 04:19:31,960
Speaker 4: for example, things like energy products, which is a huge

5073
04:19:32,000 --> 04:19:35,040
Speaker 4: amount of what we import from Canada. So this is

5074
04:19:35,080 --> 04:19:37,640
Speaker 4: only going to apply to about five point two percent

5075
04:19:37,720 --> 04:19:40,600
Speaker 4: of Canadian trade with the US. I mean, obviously that

5076
04:19:40,680 --> 04:19:42,560
Speaker 4: is still kind of a big deal for that five

5077
04:19:42,600 --> 04:19:45,840
Speaker 4: percent of trade. But you know, there's a good chance

5078
04:19:45,840 --> 04:19:48,640
Speaker 4: that these tariffs aren't going to go into effect at all,

5079
04:19:48,720 --> 04:19:50,200
Speaker 4: and that this is sort of a piece of trade

5080
04:19:50,240 --> 04:19:53,800
Speaker 4: leverage for negotiations with Canada. These, you know, even if

5081
04:19:53,840 --> 04:19:56,280
Speaker 4: they did go into effect, aren't going to be the

5082
04:19:56,320 --> 04:19:59,360
Speaker 4: biggest deal. I'm also going to briefly mention that we

5083
04:19:59,400 --> 04:20:03,720
Speaker 4: finally got the long awaited pharmaceutical import tariff. And when

5084
04:20:03,760 --> 04:20:06,200
Speaker 4: I say long awaited, I have literally been waiting for

5085
04:20:06,240 --> 04:20:08,840
Speaker 4: these tariffs to be announced since the beginning of the administration,

5086
04:20:09,360 --> 04:20:11,840
Speaker 4: to the point where I literally stopped covering the announcements

5087
04:20:11,840 --> 04:20:14,520
Speaker 4: that they were coming because they just never did. Apparently

5088
04:20:15,280 --> 04:20:17,560
Speaker 4: they are also kind of a joke. They impose a

5089
04:20:17,560 --> 04:20:20,240
Speaker 4: one hundred percent tariff on pharmaceutical imports, which would be

5090
04:20:20,240 --> 04:20:22,840
Speaker 4: a massive deal, except it starts in twenty twenty eight,

5091
04:20:23,440 --> 04:20:26,320
Speaker 4: it eventually rises at the two hundred percent, and like, Okay, yeah, sure, Donald,

5092
04:20:26,400 --> 04:20:30,720
Speaker 4: whatever you say, that's not happening. None of the specifics

5093
04:20:30,920 --> 04:20:34,680
Speaker 4: of the tariffs matter at all, or matter much at all.

5094
04:20:34,760 --> 04:20:38,280
Speaker 4: What is significantly more important is Trump invoking three thirty

5095
04:20:38,320 --> 04:20:42,760
Speaker 4: eight of Smoot Holly. Now, the reason he's doing this

5096
04:20:43,040 --> 04:20:45,880
Speaker 4: is pretty clear. All of the other avenues he has

5097
04:20:45,920 --> 04:20:49,720
Speaker 4: to impose teriffs legally actually have restrictions attached to them.

5098
04:20:50,560 --> 04:20:53,440
Speaker 4: Section one twenty two tariffs, as we've mentioned, are only

5099
04:20:53,480 --> 04:20:55,480
Speaker 4: supposed to be when there's a balance of payments crisis,

5100
04:20:55,480 --> 04:20:58,480
Speaker 4: and you can only impose a flat rate, and once

5101
04:20:58,520 --> 04:21:00,880
Speaker 4: he imposes them, they have to be reviewed by Congress,

5102
04:21:00,880 --> 04:21:03,880
Speaker 4: and that's just not happening. So those are expiring on Friday.

5103
04:21:03,920 --> 04:21:06,200
Speaker 4: We've talked about the Section three oh one tariffs a

5104
04:21:06,240 --> 04:21:09,600
Speaker 4: few weeks ago. Those are the ones that nominally are

5105
04:21:09,640 --> 04:21:12,240
Speaker 4: about forced labor. But those also have limits and can

5106
04:21:12,280 --> 04:21:14,560
Speaker 4: only be imposed after a long and slow process of

5107
04:21:14,640 --> 04:21:18,960
Speaker 4: trade investigations. Now, obviously the way that that Trump has

5108
04:21:19,040 --> 04:21:21,120
Speaker 4: used both of them is illegal, but even trying to

5109
04:21:21,200 --> 04:21:25,240
Speaker 4: use them illegally, they have definite limits. Section three thirty

5110
04:21:25,240 --> 04:21:29,680
Speaker 4: eight of Smooth Holly has basically no limits, and the

5111
04:21:29,680 --> 04:21:32,200
Speaker 4: one limit that's relevant for our purposes is a fifty

5112
04:21:32,240 --> 04:21:36,600
Speaker 4: percent maximum teriff rate. Otherwise, it lets the president impose

5113
04:21:36,680 --> 04:21:39,480
Speaker 4: tariffs on whatever country he wants for the extremely nepulous

5114
04:21:39,520 --> 04:21:43,560
Speaker 4: reasoning of that country having placed quote the commerce of

5115
04:21:43,600 --> 04:21:46,680
Speaker 4: the United States at a disadvantage compared to the commerce

5116
04:21:46,720 --> 04:21:50,600
Speaker 4: of any foreign country. Trump, can you say any country

5117
04:21:50,640 --> 04:21:52,400
Speaker 4: is doing this for any reason? We are back to

5118
04:21:52,520 --> 04:21:57,040
Speaker 4: Calvinball nonsense. This nominal legal authority allows Trump to do

5119
04:21:57,120 --> 04:22:02,120
Speaker 4: whatever he wants trade wise, up to a fifty percent tariff. Now, again,

5120
04:22:02,880 --> 04:22:05,800
Speaker 4: it is widely expected that by the time you're reading this,

5121
04:22:05,840 --> 04:22:08,400
Speaker 4: we're already going to have seen more tariffs. I'm expecting

5122
04:22:08,400 --> 04:22:11,760
Speaker 4: something akin to a smaller scale version of liberation tariffs.

5123
04:22:11,760 --> 04:22:14,720
Speaker 4: By the time you're listening, you will know more. Now,

5124
04:22:15,200 --> 04:22:18,600
Speaker 4: the reason I'm talking about section three thirty eight of

5125
04:22:18,680 --> 04:22:20,800
Speaker 4: Smooth Holly. And the reason I've described it as like

5126
04:22:20,840 --> 04:22:23,400
Speaker 4: the big red button of tariffs, like it's the tariff rubicon,

5127
04:22:24,080 --> 04:22:27,880
Speaker 4: is because not only has it never been used before, right,

5128
04:22:28,360 --> 04:22:30,160
Speaker 4: you know, the Section one twenty two has also never

5129
04:22:30,200 --> 04:22:34,960
Speaker 4: been used before, but this one, specifically section three thirty eight,

5130
04:22:35,080 --> 04:22:37,040
Speaker 4: there is a real question as to whether it's even

5131
04:22:37,080 --> 04:22:40,920
Speaker 4: still in effect now. The argument you will most commonly

5132
04:22:41,040 --> 04:22:44,240
Speaker 4: see is that section three thirty eight has never formally

5133
04:22:44,280 --> 04:22:47,040
Speaker 4: been repealed and therefore is still on the books. This

5134
04:22:47,120 --> 04:22:49,920
Speaker 4: is a law that was passed in nineteen thirty. The

5135
04:22:50,000 --> 04:22:52,640
Speaker 4: com administration is making the argument that because it has

5136
04:22:52,680 --> 04:22:57,280
Speaker 4: never formally been repealed, it is still on the books. However,

5137
04:22:57,400 --> 04:23:00,080
Speaker 4: the problem is that there exists a thing called superseding

5138
04:23:00,160 --> 04:23:05,000
Speaker 4: statute or a quote implied repeal. This is the argument

5139
04:23:05,000 --> 04:23:07,160
Speaker 4: that I've seen that this law is not still on

5140
04:23:07,200 --> 04:23:09,400
Speaker 4: the books. I've seen various versions of it. The one

5141
04:23:09,440 --> 04:23:12,440
Speaker 4: that is kind of spreading around now, for better or

5142
04:23:12,480 --> 04:23:16,280
Speaker 4: for worse, kind of for worse to some extent, is

5143
04:23:16,960 --> 04:23:20,200
Speaker 4: from Philip Zellico, who is a Hoover Institute guy and

5144
04:23:20,320 --> 04:23:23,400
Speaker 4: a history professor who's writing in Reason magazine so, like,

5145
04:23:23,440 --> 04:23:25,600
Speaker 4: you know, these are not the people I would normally

5146
04:23:25,640 --> 04:23:29,280
Speaker 4: turn to in terms of getting legal analysis on everything.

5147
04:23:29,280 --> 04:23:32,160
Speaker 4: But I actually think there's a kind of a decent

5148
04:23:32,280 --> 04:23:36,640
Speaker 4: argument that they might be right. And their argument is that, okay,

5149
04:23:36,680 --> 04:23:41,080
Speaker 4: because of the way that you know, laws can supersede

5150
04:23:41,120 --> 04:23:43,800
Speaker 4: other laws. Right, if you write a second law that

5151
04:23:43,920 --> 04:23:45,760
Speaker 4: is about the same thing as the first law, and

5152
04:23:45,800 --> 04:23:48,760
Speaker 4: it covers explicitly the same thing, it can repeal the

5153
04:23:48,760 --> 04:23:54,040
Speaker 4: first law. It's sketchy, the courts don't like it functioning

5154
04:23:54,200 --> 04:23:57,760
Speaker 4: like that, but it does technically work like that. And

5155
04:23:58,280 --> 04:24:02,560
Speaker 4: you know, zelico Are argues that a whole train of statutes,

5156
04:24:02,680 --> 04:24:05,160
Speaker 4: ranging from the Trade Expansion Act of nineteen sixteen to

5157
04:24:05,200 --> 04:24:07,680
Speaker 4: our old friend section three oh one, if the Trade

5158
04:24:07,680 --> 04:24:11,120
Speaker 4: Act of nineteen seventy four cover exactly the same things

5159
04:24:11,440 --> 04:24:14,920
Speaker 4: and therefore have repealed the statute. I think that's actually plausible.

5160
04:24:15,000 --> 04:24:17,120
Speaker 4: And this is, you know, part of the reason why

5161
04:24:17,160 --> 04:24:21,040
Speaker 4: no one has ever actually tried to use this stuff,

5162
04:24:21,080 --> 04:24:24,960
Speaker 4: because there have been subsequent legislation to describe these exact

5163
04:24:25,000 --> 04:24:27,440
Speaker 4: powers and describe what you can do with them. So

5164
04:24:27,880 --> 04:24:32,040
Speaker 4: whether it even still exists is extremely dubious. Now, this

5165
04:24:32,280 --> 04:24:35,200
Speaker 4: is probably not going to survive a challenge in court.

5166
04:24:36,000 --> 04:24:40,240
Speaker 4: But until the legal challenge actually winds its way through

5167
04:24:40,280 --> 04:24:42,840
Speaker 4: the courts, Trump is going to be free to do

5168
04:24:42,880 --> 04:24:45,320
Speaker 4: as Calvin ball nonsense, and we're back to, you know,

5169
04:24:46,000 --> 04:24:49,640
Speaker 4: twenty five era. Trump just declaring a tariff is happening

5170
04:24:49,680 --> 04:24:53,760
Speaker 4: in a country every morning now. On a broader level, right,

5171
04:24:53,840 --> 04:24:56,000
Speaker 4: what's happening here is that the way the Supreme Court

5172
04:24:56,040 --> 04:24:59,040
Speaker 4: has been doing shadow docket decisions have allowed Trump to

5173
04:24:59,280 --> 04:25:02,480
Speaker 4: simply keep breaking the law and seizing more illegal power

5174
04:25:02,520 --> 04:25:04,640
Speaker 4: and then using it until this bereme court gets around

5175
04:25:04,640 --> 04:25:08,280
Speaker 4: and taking that power away. Now, obviously this is not

5176
04:25:08,320 --> 04:25:11,440
Speaker 4: true of everything he's been trying to do with triffs.

5177
04:25:11,480 --> 04:25:14,520
Speaker 4: In particular, he's been extremely successful in simply applying the

5178
04:25:14,560 --> 04:25:16,680
Speaker 4: tariffs and then keeping them into effect until the legal

5179
04:25:16,720 --> 04:25:20,080
Speaker 4: challenges go through the courts. That looks like what's going

5180
04:25:20,120 --> 04:25:22,320
Speaker 4: to happen here, which is going to give him probably

5181
04:25:22,400 --> 04:25:24,920
Speaker 4: another I mean, it's going to give him but at

5182
04:25:25,000 --> 04:25:28,600
Speaker 4: least half a year probably of the ability to just

5183
04:25:28,800 --> 04:25:31,760
Speaker 4: do whatever bullshit tariff policy he wants, which means another

5184
04:25:31,840 --> 04:25:36,560
Speaker 4: year of completely unhinged economic instability for the entire global economy.

5185
04:25:36,880 --> 04:25:39,640
Speaker 4: It means another year of all you know of supply

5186
04:25:39,720 --> 04:25:44,440
Speaker 4: lines being degraded, of prices increasing, and of all of

5187
04:25:44,520 --> 04:25:52,600
Speaker 4: us getting absolutely screwed. Okay, put a transgoll on your couch.

5188
04:25:53,440 --> 04:25:54,520
Speaker 1: We reported the news.

5189
04:25:55,240 --> 04:25:56,240
Speaker 18: We reported the news.

5190
04:26:00,480 --> 04:26:03,640
Speaker 1: Hey, we'll be back Monday with more episodes every week

5191
04:26:03,720 --> 04:26:05,640
Speaker 1: from now until the heat death of the Universe.

5192
04:26:06,280 --> 04:26:08,880
Speaker 7: It Could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media.

5193
04:26:08,960 --> 04:26:11,960
Speaker 7: For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website

5194
04:26:12,080 --> 04:26:15,680
Speaker 7: coolzonmedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app,

5195
04:26:15,760 --> 04:26:19,320
Speaker 7: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can

5196
04:26:19,360 --> 04:26:21,680
Speaker 7: now find sources for It Could Happen here, listed directly

5197
04:26:21,680 --> 04:26:24,000
Speaker 7: in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.